SB Nation - Pittsburgh Pirates

Huntington: Neil Walker Hasn't Earned Big-League Job

Charlie — Sun, 20 Dec 2009 23:33:52 -0000

More photos » by Gene J. Puskar - AP

3 months ago: Pittsburgh Pirates third baseman Neil Walker, left, takes the late throw from right fielder Garrett Jones as Chicago Cubs' Kosuke Fukudome advances to third on single by Cubs' Ryan Theriot in the second inning of a baseball game in Pittsburgh Wednesday, Sept. 9, 2009. Cubs' Koyle Hill scored on the single. (AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar)

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This is about as mean as the usually-circumspect Neal Huntington ever gets:

"Sitting here today, we feel like we have one Major League third baseman, and that is Andy LaRoche," general manager Neal Huntington said. "[Walker] needs to continue to mature and get stronger. He still hasn't really dominated the Triple-A level to show that, 'Hey, I'm ready to be a Major League player.' He hasn't necessarily earned his way to the Major League level."

I mostly agree, of course. I think it's interesting, though, that both Huntington and John Russell say that Walker needs to get stronger. Other than his defense at third base, Walker's power is the one aspect of his game that has clearly developed well since he was drafted in 2004. His isolated slugging averages have been very good the past couple of years. He's also shown a good arm. If the references to Walker's strength don't have to do with his power or his arm, then I'm not sure what Huntington and Russell are talking about.

The real problems with Walker are that he doesn't hit for enough average, and he doesn't draw enough walks. He's had exactly one OBP above .345 in any year since he was drafted, which is terrible for a former first round pick. Walker hit .194 in a very small sample in the majors last year; while that shouldn't really be held against him at this point, an extremely low average would be a very likely outcome if he were allowed to play much in the bigs next year.

There is reason for some hope, though--Walker hit well down the stretch at Indianapolis last year, and he kept hitting in Venezuela this fall, posting a .267/.370/.448 line in 116 at bats there. The average is still too low, but he did draw a bunch of walks for the first time since 2007, when he was with Altoona. A line like that at Indianapolis might convince me that Walker is ready to help the Bucs, at least in a bench role.

News Round-Up: The Tools of Ignorance

jscape2000 — Sat, 19 Dec 2009 12:00:41 -0000

Tyler Kepner has the shake down on the Johnson-Damon drama:

Johnson is not precisely taking over for Damon. In the big picture, the Yankees are swapping two older left-handed hitters who made $26 million in 2009 (Damon and Hideki Matsui) for two younger left-handed hitters whose contracts average about $14 million in 2010 (Curtis Granderson and Johnson). They are replacing a speed guy and a slow guy with another speed guy and another slow guy.

I know some folks wanted Damon back; some think Cash made a wrong choice, and the Yanks' will regret it when they have a sore Johnson in June.

These are negotiations. I pretend that I'm not budging, you pretend that your not budging. Sometimes, one of us thinks we're not serious when we really are. The difference in real value of Damon/Matsui vs Granderson/Johnson is marginal, and this gives Cashman a little more leverage in future negotiations with Scott Boras. Next time Boras makes an outrageous demand to Brian Cashman, and Cash replies "That's unreasonable, so I'll go to my other options," Boras will be quicker to buckle.

Greg Fertel of Pending Pinstripes thinks that Brett Gardner could be a better left fielder than Jason Bay next season when we weigh offense, defense and baserunning.

I call malarkey because Joe G. proved in September and the postseason that he doesn't think Gardner gives him the best chance to win. If Joe G. has someone else, anyone else to run out there, he will use the other guy. Whether it's an ice-cold Melky or Nick Swisher having a Soriano-esque bout of futility at the plate, Joe G. thinks that GGBG's speed can only be a weapon off the bench.

Gardner has the potential (assuming no regression in the notoriously fickle UZR), but I don't think he'd ever get the opportunity.

Who's the greatest Yankee to ever wear #14? YankeeNumbers gives you the full run-down. My short list is down to Lou Piniella, Bill Skowron and Miguel Cairo. Grand Central has some work to do to put himself in that company.

The most important baseball man to ever wear 14 as a Yankee is easy, though: Bobby Cox.

Donnie Collins replaced Chad Jennings at the SWB Blog, and he's doing a fine job. He notes that former Yankee farmhand Eric Hacker has signed a minor league deal with the Giants- Hacker was DFA'd and traded to the Pirates for Romulo Sanchez, who is currently on the Yankees' 40-man and has an outside shot at making the bullpen out of Spring Training.

This is something else that Cashman has done well lately: holding on to the right guys, and flipping the marginal guys for other marginal guys he can have an extra season or two to develop.

Pitchers and catchers report in the longest 8 weeks of the year.

I try to always cite my sources. I think I link to one of Cot's Baseball Contracts, Baseball-Reference, and Fangraphs every single day. And there's a reason: they're awesome. The work they do updating and sharing their respective information is as important as anything happening on the internet (from a baseball standpoint).

In the spirit of the season, I want to say a huge thank you to the folks who run each of those sites. What I do would be impossible without what they do.

Would You Non-Tender Matt Capps?

Harry Pavlidis — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 17:03:59 -0000

More photos » by Gene J. Puskar - AP

Get used to seeing Capps in a different uniform.

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Think fast. The deadline to tender unsigned players a contract is approaching. A key member of your bullpen is coming off a down season. What will you do?

If you're Pittsburgh Pirates GM Neil Huntington, such decisions are part of your job.

If you're talking about the Matt Capps of '07 or '08, that would be very, very difficult to replace. He's probably not somebody we non-tender. The second half of '08 and into '09 ... it's not that hard to replace a reliever with a 5.00 or 6.00 ERA.

With Matt Capps, it seemed to come down to marketability. Seems that the market was impacted by some news leaks.

In that event, Huntington was asked, why was Capps not traded before that, given that the team surely had its internal valuations on him well before the past week or so: "We were working on it, and we had multiple conversations that disappeared when the media report came out.

Huntington was more explicit in his reasoning during a recent MLB.com chat:

The decision to not tender Matt Capps was a difficult decision. While it is obvious Matt's 2009 performance was not his best, we did feel there were indicators that he would have a better season in 2010. The arbitration process aggressively rewards saves, home runs and wins while not always properly accounting for the metrics behind those numbers. Despite wanting to retain Matt and making an aggressive offer that we believed would be at or near his free-agent value prior to the tender deadline, we felt that the risk of an arbitration award at a substantially higher amount was not a good business decision for us. We may be right or wrong on Matt's free-agent value (and his 2010 performance), and we may be right or wrong on the performance of the pitcher(s) and/or player(s) we re-allocate the money toward, but we felt that it was the right move for us. Obviously, we would have preferred to get something of value in trade for Matt, but given his track record beginning in the second half of 2008, his trade value was limited throughout the summer and again this offseason. We wish the best for Matt and are certainly open to retaining him if we are able to find a common ground with his agent.

Emphasis my own. Note Huntington avoids putting blame on the media this time around. At least directly.

I think they made a mistake, and Capps will be valued relief pitcher somewhere in 2010. Why am I so confident that a pitcher the Pirates had no use for is in line for a good job with another club? First, the list of teams in on Capps is quite long. Second, he's not pitching any better or worse now than he was a couple years ago.

PITCHf/x Indicates Little Has Changed

I realize Capps gave up far more walks and home runs than expected in 2009. Results are results. But what is reasonable to expect going forward? I'm not going to project Capps' 2010 line, but I am going to show you that, beneath the surface, the later vintage Capps (using Huntington's parameters) was just as effective as the earlier version.

PITCHf/x gives us pitch-by-pitch data on what the pitcher threw, how fast it went, where it went and what the batter did with it. Further, within Gameday (which includes the PITCHf/x data), we also get batted ball types and a lot more. PITCHf/x started in 2007, but wasn't in every big league park until 2008. Pittsburgh's system came on line in September 2007. This leaves some holes in the data, so keep that in mind. For the most part, I'm not all that interested in the individual pitches. But my analysis starts there and rolls-up into the top line.

The Basics: Capps is, essentially, a three-pitch guy. Fastball, slider and change-up. He throws mostly four-seam fastballs, but also throws a two-seamer. As noted earlier, he also has a cutter.

For the purposes of this discussion, I'll go with three pitches, lumping fastballs together and cutters with sliders:

Fastball: 92 mph; Slider: 85; Change-up: 87

Nothing earth shattering, a fairly typical arsenal featuring reasonable, but not spectacular, power.

Now that we know what he's got, let's split it up. Huntington alluded to a second half decline in 2008. Capps was out of action for a few weeks after the All Star Break, so we can conveniently split his PITCHf/x data (which starts in 2007, and is incomplete for that year) into "before" and "after", and line-up close enough in terms of sample sizes.

Most of these stats are somewhat self-explanatory, but I'll run them down just in case ... strikes are pitches in a two foot wide zone, based on each hitter's own top/bottom zones. Whiffs are misses per swings, chases are swings out of the zone, watches are takes in it, B:CS are umpire calls, GB/LD/FB/PU are Gameday stringer assigned batted ball types, HR/F+L is simply homers per flies+liners, rv100 are run values vs MLB average (2007-2009) per 100 pitches (negative values being better for pitchers), rv100E is the same thing but using batted ball types instead of actual hits/outs - takes away some fielding and park luck, along with contact quality unfortunatly. Neither rv stat I use is park adjusted at the moment, and AL/NL are not separated so apply a mental penalty to NL pitchers.

	Before (742)	After (1025)
Strikes	.584	.590
Whiffs	.167	.189
Chase	.317	.312
Watch	.337	.352
B:CS	1.8:1	1.7:1
GB	30%	42%
LD	21%	17%
FB	40%	34%
PU	9%	7%
HR/F+L	6%	8%
SLGCON	.506	.581
rv100	-1.23	0.24
rv100E	-0.27	-0.56

One could argue Capps was a better pitcher, with poorer luck, in the supposed down swing of the "After" period.

In case you're wondering, fastball velocity was 93.5 "before" and 94.1 "after". I also split Capps' data into 2009 only and 2007/2008. In that case, the sample sizes were nearly identical, as were the performances.

Where To?

The latest news, as of this writing, is about Capps narrowing down the field of suitors:

[R]ighty reliever Matt Capps' agent, who found himself fielding multiple suitors, said Capps will narrow the list to the five most-serious.

By "serious" I'm assuming multi-year offers and opportunities to close. So far, the Nationals are on the list. Given my own loyalties, I would not be displeased with Capps working set-up innings for the Cubs for the next two years, if the price is right.

Small-Payroll Teams Don't Need Jacuzzis

Charlie — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 01:46:05 -0000

More photos » by Al Behrman - AP

Teams like the Pirates--and Reds--can't really afford closers like Francisco Cordero.

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Some odd point-counterpoint from Neal Huntington and Dejan Kovacevic. Huntington:

History has not been kind to teams in markets like Pittsburgh that have invested heavily in a closer. As a result, we will build depth, give ourselves options and see who steps up to take the ball and get the final outs in our close wins.

Kovacevic:

Here again, what do Pittsburgh or anyone's market size have to do with this concept?

If the Reds regret signing Francisco Cordero to close at his huge contract, how is that different than the Mets regretting signing J.J. Putz or Billy Wagner?

Sure, the Mets absorb the loss more easily because of a bigger payroll, but the history is no less kind to the Mets than it is to the Reds. It's still a lousy move on both counts.

Kovacevic gets it right with "Sure, the Mets absorb the loss more easily because of a bigger payroll...", but actually the conversation begins and ends there. Huntington is dead on.

First, and this is a minor point, the Mets didn't sign Putz, they traded for him. As for Wagner, the Mets paid him $10.5 million in 2009--but after they paid their team-controlled players, they also had room to spend $9 million on Francisco Rodriguez, $12 million on Oliver Perez, $12 million on Carlos Delgado, $20 million on Johan Santana, and $20 million on Carlos Beltran. They also paid $6.25 million to Luis Castillo and $6 million to Putz. None of those players were developed by the Mets.

The Reds spent $12 million on Cordero in 2009. After that, they paid $11 million to Aaron Harang, as part of a four-year deal that bought out two option years. They paid $9.5 million to Bronson Arroyo.

That's it. Every other player was either under team control (Brandon Phillips was signed to a long-term deal, but 2009 would have been one of his arbitration years) or cost them less than $5 million. (Thanks to Cot's Contracts for the data for both teams.)

That's almost $100 million in what we might call expensive-player spending for the Mets, and about $30 million for the Reds. It is absolutely clear that a team like the Mets can afford to drop $12 million for 80 innings if it wants to, while a team like the Reds just can't. And if the Reds sign a player to a contract they end up regretting, it hurts them much more than it hurts the Mets. This is really elementary stuff--a doctor can probably afford that jacuzzi, whereas someone like me just can't. Closers are like jacuzzis. I think that's all Huntington was saying.

History won't be kind to recent versions of the Mets. That's true. But to suggest that has much to do with their decisions to spend heavily on closers is strange and confusing. History won't be kind to them because they were expensive, poorly-constructed teams who suffered two straight September collapses before coming completely unglued in 2009. But their decisions to invest big bucks on closers are only small parts of that, probably very small parts. While the Wagner signing in particular wasn't the world's best idea, it was far from the worst--after all, he pitched brilliantly for the Mets for the better part of three years.

The Mets had a jacuzzi in Wagner, and for several years it worked just fine. And if Minaya had bothered to build a bathtub by having some other relievers handy, the loss of the jacuzzi in 2008 wouldn't have caused the Mets to stink so badly. The problem with the house the Mets built was that it didn't have a roof, or even very many functioning appliances. With their payroll, they could have built the roof and the bathtub and the jacuzzi, but they didn't.

The 2009 Mets devoted broad swathes of playing time to non-hitters like Daniel Murphy and Omir Santos and Alex Cora and Brian Schneider and Ryan Church and Cory Sullivan and Wilson Valdez. They had so many injuries, and planned for them so poorly, that were times when their lineup resembled a Triple-A team's. Their rotation was also a complete mess behind Santana, with Perez, Livan Hernandez, Tim Redding and Mike Pelfrey all imploding along the way. However history may treat the Mets, if they'd run the rest of their team well, they could have spent exactly as they did on closers and probably had three straight playoff appearances from 2007 to 2009. Not so for the Reds, who simply can't afford to spend 40% of their expensive-player spending on an 80 inning guy. They need to spend that money on stuff like heating and water, not on a jacuzzi.

By the way, you may be wondering what this has to do with Matt Capps, since Huntington addressed the Capps matter elsewhere in his chat and the beginning of Kovacevic's post was about Capps. The answer is, nothing. While a small-payroll team shouldn't pay a closer $12 million, it can certainly afford to pay $3-4 million in arbitration.

Down on the Farm: John Sickel's Top 20 Pirates Prospects for 2010

raygu — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 17:30:32 -0000

Sickels posted his Top 20 Pirates prospect for 2010 yesterday afternoon with a surprise number 1 prospect.....just kidding. Sickels has thrid base prospect Pedro Alvarez as his number 1 Buccos prospect, and here is what he said about him:

1) Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Grade A: Bat looks excellent. Even if he moves to first base, his bat will be good enough for him to be an All-Star. Upside: David Ortiz.

I wonder if the upside comment refers to Alvarez's bat or weight in comparison to Ortiz??

And here is what he said about a guy I recently traded for in the UBA league:

2) Jose Tabata, OF, Grade B: I don't know if I agree with the Pirates about his power, but I do believe them about his age and at 21 he is still VERY young with high upside.

Head on over to Minor League Ball to check out the rest of the Pirates Top 20. It appears the system is improving, but they have alot of catching up to do after some horrible drafts in recent years.

Jeff Clement Penciled in at First

Charlie — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 10:03:59 -0000

by Kathy Willens - AP

The Bucs are comfortable waiting until late in the offseason to target free agent corner players like Xavier Nady.

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The Post-Gazette has an interesting item about Jeff Clement and the first base job. The Pirates seem not to mind that some of their top targets for extra corner players (Xavier Nady and Rick Ankiel in particular) are unlikely to sign until late in the offseason. This means they're probably relatively happy with the players currently at the top of their depth chart (Clement at first, and Garrett Jones in right) and want an extra guy mainly to provide competition and to guard against a flameout by Clement or someone else.

This seems sensible. As a fourth-outfielder / insurance policy, Nady is actually fairly interesting to me, since he's right-handed. But Ankiel is a lefty like Clement. And it's not really clear that Nady or Ankiel are better than Clement right now anyway. ZiPS, for example, predicts Clement will have an .801 OPS next year. (Incidentally, it also predicts Matt Capps will have the lowest ERA on the staff. Oops.) Nady is at .780. I don't think a ZiPS projection for Ankiel has been published yet, but Bill James has him at .763.

Now, both Nady and Ankiel would be doing the Pirates a service by keeping Jones out of the outfield, so they provide more defensive value than Clement probably would. And certainly projections can turn out to be wrong, particularly with injury magnets like these three guys, etc. etc. etc. (Don't think you're being original by pointing that out, either.) The point, though, is that if the Bucs have resigned themselves to second- or third-tier free agents like Nady and Ankiel (as is probably appropriate at this point), they're right to not feel much urgency about this. Clement might well end up being better than the available options anyway, and if things get bad, there's also Steve Pearce, Delwyn Young and Brandon Moss--and possibly Jose Tabata and Pedro Alvarez--to fall back on. An additional benefit of starting Clement is that the Pirates can control his rights for several years if he succeeds, and since Tabata and Alvarez could begin to complicate things staring in about July, it behooves the Bucs to see what they have in Clement.

The best reason for the Pirates to sign a free agent outfielder or first baseman is not to replace someone currently penciled into the starting lineup, but to guard against a complete failure, and I don't just mean by Clement. Not to take a shot at someone who thoroughly proved me wrong throughout 2009, but last season Jones played like he knew how to fly. Maybe he really can fly, but given his lengthy and undistinguished history, the Pirates also have to consider the possibility that instead of flying his legs were just moving really fast for a few seconds, like Wile E. Coyote running off a cliff. Clement, Jones and Lastings Milledge should all be in the starting lineup, but if possible there should be legitimate fallback options too.

Pittsburgh Pirates Top 20 Prospects for 2010

John Sickels — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 22:16:26 -0000

More photos » by Gene J. Puskar - AP

2 months ago: Pittsburgh Pirates' Andrew McCutchen drives in two-runs with a single off Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher George Sherrill in the seventh inning of a baseball game in Pittsburgh Saturday, Sept. 26, 2009.(AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar)

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Pittsburgh Pirates Top 20 Prospects for 2010

All grades are EXTREMELY PRELIMINARY and subject to change. Don't get too worried about exact rankings at this point, especially once you get beyond the Top 10. Grade C+/C guys are pretty interchangeable depending on what you want to emphasize. Complete reports on these and over 1,000 other players will be in the 2010 Baseball Prospect Book, now available for pre-order, shipping on February 2^nd!

1) Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Grade A: Bat looks excellent. Even if he moves to first base, his bat will be good enough for him to be an All-Star. Upside: David Ortiz.

2) Jose Tabata, OF, Grade B: I don't know if I agree with the Pirates about his power, but I do believe them about his age and at 21 he is still VERY young with high upside.

3) Tony Sanchez, C, Grade B: He was a slight overdraft but I like him, excellent defense and it doesn't look like his power was all aluminum.

4) Zack Von Rosenberg, RHP, Grade B-: This is an aggressive grade for a high school pitcher with just one pro inning under his belt, but I really like his pitchability and have a strong intuitive feeling about him. He still has some projection left, too. Going to take a risk with this one and put him ahead of Alderson and Lincoln.

5) Tim Alderson, RHP, Grade B-: Borderline C+. Loss of velocity and break on the curve is troubling, but he's still a guy who held his own in Double-A at age 20. Stock has dropped but still an intriguing property as an inning-eater type. Ranks ahead of Lincoln because he's younger.

6) Brad Lincoln, RHP, Grade C+: Borderline B-. Command looks all the way back, but components are more those of an inning-eater type than a true ace.

7) Chase D'arnaud, INF, Grade C+: Speed, on-base ability, solid defense, might develop more pop. At worst a good utility guy and could get beyond that.

8) Starling Marte, OF, Grade C+: Uber-tools, particularly speed, but raw with the strike zone.

9) Rudy Owens, LHP, Grade C+: Outstanding K/BB ratio. Was hittable after moving up to Lynchburg, though he maintained a good strikeout rate. Great command of decent stuff but need to see in Double-A.

10) Ronald Uviedo, RHP, Grade C+: Live arm stands out but unsure of future role.

11) Victor Black, RHP, Grade C+: Another live arm, Dallas Baptist product has high ceiling but needs better control.

12) Daniel McCutchen, RHP, Grade C+: Old for a rookie at age 27, but has nothing left to prove in the minors and knows how to pitch. Another guy with a great K/BB ratio.

13) Brett Lorin, RHP, Grade C+: Sleeper prospect snapped up from the Mariners, could rank as high as 10^th.

14) Robbie Grossman, OF, Grade C+: High strikeout rate is off-putting, but he also draws walks, steals bases, and has untapped power potential.

15) Diego Moreno, RHP, Grade C+: Lively relief arm came out of nowhere, need to see at higher levels but could advance quickly as a pen asset.

16) Justin Wilson, LHP, Grade C+: Component ratios at Lynchburg weren't great, but he has a good arm and lefties with above average stuff get plenty of chances.

17) Colton Cain, LHP, Grade C+: Could rank as high as 12^th. Another high-ceiling arm bought away from college like Von Rosenberg, though not as polished.

18) Gorkys Hernandez, OF, Grade C: Baseball America has him at 10^th on their Pirates list due to his tools, but I'm starting to doubt the bat and his skills seem to be stagnating.

19) Trent Stevenson, RHP, Grade C: Another young projectable high school arm bought out of college ball.

20) Brooks Pounders, RHP, Grade C: Less projectable than Stevenson but another interesting prep arm. The rotation in the New York-Penn League and/or Low-A is going to be really intriguing in 2010.

OTHERS: (Grade Cs): Ramon Aguero, RHP; Nate Baker, LHP; Ramon Cabrera, C; Evan Chambers, OF; Jarek Cunningham, INF; Zack Dodson, LHP; Wesley Freeman, OF; Brian Friday, SS; Brock Holt, INF; Jeff Inman, RHP; Quincy Latimore, OF; Jeff Locke, LHP; Jordy Mercer, SS; Quinton Miller, RHP; Bryan Morris, RHP; Danny Moskos, LHP; John Raynor, OF; Hunter Strickland, RHP; Donald Veal, LHP; Neil Walker, 3B.

This farm system is improving, thanks to trades, more aggressive drafting, and additional scouting in Latin America.

Alvarez is the crown jewel, of course, and there isn't a lot really that needs to be said about him. Tabata is a more difficult case, since even if they're right about his age, he risks tweenerdom if his power doesn't come along. I like Tony Sanchez a lot and people need to lay off about the decision to draft him. They poured a ton of money into projectable guys in later rounds, and I think the strategy of mixing skill players with tool players will pay dividends.

The system is thin in position players beyond the top group. I like d'Arnaud but he may end up as just a good role player and not a starter. We'll know more once he faces Double-A pitching. Marte could be anything from a big star to a huge bust. Heavy investments have been made in young pitching recently. I like Von Rosenberg the best of the bunch, but Cain, Pounders, Stevenson, Dodson, and Miller all have significant upside potential. There are also live-armed guys who could help in the bullpen relatively soon, and there are inning-eaters such as Lincoln, Alderson, and Strickland to provide some leavening to the upside guys.

If what I saw in Arizona is any indication, Donald Veal could be a surprise success in 2010.

The Pirates could use some additional bats to go with all these arms, but overall this is an organization on the right track in terms of player development. The debut of Andrew McCutchen was just the first step.

The NL Central Offseason Revue Pt. 2: The Red Menace

the red baron — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 16:35:23 -0000

Um, I think Jocketty is the one on the left.

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I decided I'm going to try and do these in order from best to worst in the division; unfortunately, that now means I have to try and come up with preseason predictions before the offseason is even half over. Not a great idea on my part, really; I should have done them in alphabetical order or something. Oh, well. Too late for such considerations now, I suppose.

Of all the teams in the Central, perhaps none is so enigmatic as the Cincinnati Reds. Every spring for god knows how many years now we've heard the constant refrain, "Look out for the Reds this year. This is the year they finally turn that corner." Now, to be fair, we hear much the same thing about the Pirates, but predictions of Pittsburgh's rise are always couched not in terms of contention, but in terms of near-winning baseball. Thus, even as the predictions are made, our natural inclination toward Piratic indifference kicks in. The Reds, on the other hand, are a different story.

See, the thing about the Reds is this: they have some really, really good players. Players I would love to have on my team. They stole Brandon Phillips from their in-state rivals just a couple offseasons back, right from under the Cards' noses, even as Junior Spivey was busily reminding us not all reclamation projects end up reclaiming anything. Sometimes the ship stays sunk. (By the by, I'm proud to say I was one of the people hoping and advocating for the Cards to bring in Phillips. Sadly, our voices were not heard.) The Reds have some outstanding young arms. Their closer is one of the better ones in the business. (Still not worth his contract, but that's another issue entirely.) The right fielder is the guy the Cardinals really wanted in 2005; they chose Colby Rasmus specifically because he was the most similar player to Jay Bruce in the draft. There is some real talent here.

Yet somehow, year after year, those cries which warn us of the approaching Cincinnati domination always turn out to be wrong. Every year the Reds find some way not to win. It's gotten to the point I almost fear the offseason when no one cautions against the Reds; perhaps the spell will then be broken and this long-benighted franchise will step fully into the light. Or, perhaps not.

Either way, a little insurance can't possibly be a bad thing.

This is the year, folks. Watch out for the Reds.

Cincinnati Reds 2009 Record: 78-84, 13 games out of first

Pythagorean Record: 76-86 (673 runs scored, 723 allowed)

It was another disappointing year for the Reds, who came into the 2009 season with one of the most promising teams Cincinnati has seen in years. There was tons of optimism, and rightfully so; the Reds' rotation was immensely talented and young, just beginning to come into its own. Unfortunately, the struggles of youth and the injury bugbear combined to rob the Reds of their pitching bite, and the offense simply wasn't good enough to compensate.

Offense: After years of watching the Dunn/Griffey led Reds mash their way through the division while failing to hold anyone to less than seven runs per game, the 2009 Reds were a positively anemic change of pace. The Cardinals were not a particularly prolific offensive team, but the Reds made them look positively potent by comparison. (I'm feeling quite loquacious this morning, by the way. Does it show?) The Cardinals scored 730 runs, 57 more than the limp-lumbered lads from Cincy. Nearly six wins worth of offensive production is nothing to sneeze at.

While the Reds' problems at the platter in 2009 were legion, one can point to two areas in particular which acted as anchors around the necks of the Redlegs. On the one hand, you have the outfield. Then, on the other hand, you have the infield.

One of the more glaring issues for the Reds was the appallingly average sophomore slump of Jay Bruce, who followed up what was a very encouraging debut season with, essentially, the exact same performance. Not that that's the worst thing in the world, mind you; Bruce's OPS+ was 97 in '08 and 100 in '09, making him exactly league average, but this is Jay F. Bruce we're talking about here. He's young, yes, but you still don't expect him to be duking it out with Skip Schumaker for the title of Averagest HItter in all Baseballdom.

The good news, for Cincinnati fans at least, is this: Jay Bruce is still a better hitter than what he's shown in the majors. I feel completely confident in saying I still expect Bruce to be a star, given time to grow and better health. Unfortunately, I can't say the same for the rest of the Reds' outfield. This is, after all, a team which paid Willy Taveras actual, honest to god money to post a .559 OPS over the course of 400+ at-bats. Laynce Nix proved a source of superfluous Y's and steroid speculation, but little else. (Well, except against the Cardinals, that is.) He did put up an OPS+ of 98, but from a left fielder, you've got to expect a bit more thump. The lone real bright spot for the Reds was Johnny Gomes, who hit quite well in the Great American Bandbox, to the tune of an .879 OPS. Unfortunately, Johnny Gomes plays defense like Chris Duncan using an oven mitt. Still, beggars can't be choosers, I suppose.

On the infield, things were a bit more of a mixed bag. The right side of the Reds' gamut of grounder grabbers was brilliant, with Joey Votto establishing himself as a legitimate force (OPS of .981 for the season), and Brandon Phillips turning in another of his usual five-tool showcase performances. The left side of the infield, however, oy. Not so much. Paul Janish and Adam Rosales took the lion's shares of at-bats at shortstop and third base, respectively, and both posted OPS's in the low .600s. (Janish took the low .600s thing to the extreme, posting a .601.) Jerry Hairston played a fair amount at various positions all over the diamond and was a little better, though he still wasn't inspiring shock and awe in too many opposing pitchers.

Now that's the bad news. The good news (again, for Reds' fans), is that there will be different faces at several positions for 2010. Drew Stubbs, the Reds' uber-athletic Mike Cameron clone, came up late in the season and displayed a wide base of exciting tools in center field. Stubbs has speed, he has power, and he can go get it with the best of them in the field. The only thing holding him back is his tendency to take lots and lots of empty swings. Sort of a center field version of Tyler Greene.

The other big upgrade the Reds can count on is, of course, our old buddy Scott Rolen. Rolen came over from the Blue Jays in a midseason trade and played quite well for the Reds, hitting .270/.364/.401 and playing defense which was nearly Rolenesque. The Rolen of old is gone and he's never coming back, but the new model is still a substantial upgrade over what the Reds were trotting out most of the season.

Starting Pitching

What was supposed to be the biggest strength for the Reds ended up helping to drag them down. As the year opened, there were some touting the Reds' 1-2 rotation punch of Edinson Volquez and Johnny Cueto as the best in the National League, and perhaps one of the best in all of baseball. Sadly, Volquez succumbed to injury, having Tommy John surgery in early August, and Cueto seemed to take a step backward from his rookie campaign, even though he ended up with a lower ERA for the season. Cueto started off hot, then imploded in the late summer months, allowing an opponent's OPS of 1.026(!) in July and .938 in August. He did turn things around a bit at the end of the season, pitching better in September, but it wasn't enough to wash away the sins of the previous two months.

As strange as it sounds, Bronson Arroyo actually had sort of an okay year. Sort of. Kind of. He went 15-13, 3.84, gave up less hits than innings pitched (214 H in 220.1 IP), and struck out almost twice as many batters as he walked. Now, as to how he did it, I honestly have no idea. Every time I saw Arroyo, he was being yanked out of the game after giving up five runs in two and a third. He's basically Swamp Gas II: the Swampening at this point for me. Homer Bailey continued to frustrate those of us who believe prospect ranking should count for something, damn it, by not turning into Nolan Ryan, but there were positive signs. While his overall numerical profile doesn't inspire much confidence, Bailey did pitch extraordinarily well in September, going 4-1, 2.08 and striking out 42 batters in 43.1 innings while walking 19. Let's put it this way: if Walt or Dusty decide Homer's just not going to work out up there, I would be more than happpy to take him off their hands.

Elsewhere in the Reds' rotation, Aaron Harang was bad again, Micah Owings was a really good hitter, and Kip Wells gave Cincinnati a taste of the 2007 Cardinal magic.

The rotation could very well still be a strength in 2010 for the Reds. If Bailey really has turned a corner and Cueto can find a bit of his early-season magic after Memorial Day, Cincy could have a nice tandem atop the rotation. Add Volquez possibly returning for the stretch run, and that's an intriguing trio. And as much as it pains me to say it, you could probably do worse than Bronson Arroyo and the Harangutan for your 4th and 5th spots. (Then again, for what the Reds are paying those guys, they could also do miles better.)

Bullpen

And now we come to the real strength of the Cincinnati Reds: their bullpen. (I'll take 'Sentences I Never Expected to Speak' for $600, Alex.) After years of wandering in the desert, searching for relievers, the Reds seem to have finally found the guys to put the kibosh on any late-inning uprisings.

Francisco Cordero is not worth his contract. We'll just get that out of the way up front. Nonetheless, he's a very, very good pitcher even as he enters his mid 30s, posting a 2.16 ERA last season. He could fall off a cliff, but I don't think he will. I think we're just going to have to put up with him being good for the near future. Maybe we could get Spiezio to sober up and just pinch-hit during series with Cincinnati...

The biggest difference for the Reds between 2009 and past seasons was the emergence of Nick Masset and Danny Ray Herrera, the Screwball Kid himself, as legitimate setup men. In the past, even when the Reds had a player who could shut the door at the end of the game (remember when Todd Coffey looked like a good pitcher for like three months? Wasn't that weird?), there was nothing in the way of a bridge to get there. With Masset and Herrera, the Reds finally have that bridge.

The rest of the Redleg relief corps was solid but nothing spectacular. Arthur Rhodes was good, making me wish the Cardinals had more Rhodehouse and less Diner, but secondary LOOGY certainly isn't anything to get too very upset about.

Offseason Priorities

To be honest, I'm not sure how much Walt Jocketty and the rest of his communist cronies are going to be doing this offseason. The very same thing that makes the Reds such an intriguing team is the thing which makes them so difficult to improve. The Reds are a transitional team, and the opportunity cost of bringing in marginal upgrades may just prove to be a bit too steep. Add in the fact Cincinnati appears to have very little breathing room in terms of payroll, and I think it will likely be a relatively quiet offseason for Jocketty and Co.

The two big opportunities for the Reds to make upgrades are at shortstop and left field; unfortunately, upgrading at either of those spots is easier said than done this winter. The Reds lack the financial capacity to get into the bidding for either of the big LF prizes, Holliday or Jason Bay, and most of the other players available would represent a middling upgrade at best. The Reds have two players in their system, Todd Frazier and Chris Heisey, who both could see time in left in 2010. Frazier is a third baseman by trade, but earns his keep mostly with the bat, and could see outfield time a la Allen Craig just to get him into the lineup. Heisy is a speedy, plus-defense type with a line-drive swing and fair on-base skills. It wouldn't surprise me to see the Reds bring back Gomes as a LF/1B guy on days when Votto isn't playing and try to work one or both of Heisy/ Frazier in slowly with ABs in left.

Shortstop, on the other hand, might be a bit more interesting. There aren't a whole lot of guys out there, but there are a couple decent names. If the Reds were looking for an offensive upgrade, either Miguel Tejada or Felipe Lopez could offer a bat for a fair value. Of course, both have significant questions surrounding their abilities to play shortstop, but hey, I said offensive upgrade. If Cincinnati decided to go more for a defense-first guy, Orlando Cabrera can still pick it with the best of them. Regardless, I think shortstop is the most likely position to look toward if the Reds are going to make a move this offseason.

I'm sure Jocketty and Baker would like to pick up a more dependable arm for depth in the rotation, but I'm not sure they'll have the payroll to do so. The Reds are already paying Harang and Arroyo gobs of money; they may try to deal for an arm but I don't see a signing there. The bullpen actually needs the least help of all; they may sign a guy to replace Rhodes if he leaves or something like that, but I think the relief corps is largely set.

The Bottom Line

Do I think the Reds are going to be better than Milwaukee? I must, since I did them before the Brew Crew, right? The answer is a decided and unequivocal maybe. I think the Reds have the potential, certainly, to improve more than probably any other team in the division, simply based on their young talent base. I think the Brewers largely are who we think they are, a team of tremendous offensive talent and very, very limited pitching resources. The Reds, on the other hand, have a lot of untapped potential on both sides of the equation, and depending on how things break, they could vault up the standing in the Central or remain the same enigmatic bunch of underachievers they have been for years now.

I think the addition of Scott Rolen was a cataclysmically bad one, but, paradoxically, I also believe he'll make the Reds better in the coming season. He should provide just enough offense while helping the pitchers out significantly.

In the end, the success or failure of the Reds' 2010 season will likely have little to do with what, if any, moves Walt Jocketty makes this winter. Rather, the fate of the first season of the new decade (eat it, Matty!), will hinge largely on the three pillars upon which we've been told Cincinnati's new glory would be built for years: Homer Bailey, Jay Bruce, and Joey Votto. If those three are the players they were thought to be on the way up, the Reds could very well make some noise. If not, it could be another very long summer in the home of the world's shittiest chili.

The Baron's Playlist for the 16th of December, 2009: the Christmas Catalogue

(In no particular order, by the way)

"Fairytale of New York" - The Pogues
"Rockin' Around the Christmas Tree" - Brenda Lee (listen closely; she's actually saying fucking pie. Seriously.)
"You're All I Want for Christmas" - Brook Benton
"A Change at Christmas (Say it Isn't So)" - the Flaming Lips
"Merry Xmas Everybody" - Slade
"Jingle Bell Rock" - Bobby Helms (this is the song that will one day force me to pull to the side of the road and cry when my mother is gone)
"White Christmas" - The Drifters (sorry, but this one is way, way better than the Bing Crosby version)
"Happy Christmas (War is Over)" - John Lennon and Yoko Ono
"Blue Christmas" - Elvis Presley
"Happy Holidays" - Alabama (I really, really hate Alabama, but I loved this song when I was a kid listening to the old True Value Hardware Christmas records)
"We're Going to the Country!" - Sufjan Stevens
"Peace on Earth/ Little Drummer Boy" - David Bowie and Bing Crosby
"Marshmallow World" - Dean Martin
"God Rest Ye, Merry Gentlemen" - Nat King Cole (another True Value special)
"Frosty the Snowman" - The Ronettes
"Jingle Bells" - Glenn Miller
"I'll Be Home for Christmas" - Frank Sinatra
"I Want a Hippopotamus for Christmas" - Gayla Peevey
"Christmastime is Here" - The Vince Guaraldi Trio (sadly, this song underwent one of the worst remasters I believe I've ever heard just a couple years ago; find the old, unremastered version.)
"Christmas Wrapping" - the Waitresses (this song is utter crap. I fucking love it.)

I'm going to stop at 20. It's tough for me to do, but I'm going to do it.

Marlins Interested in Matt Capps

GameFish — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 17:51:17 -0000

Matt Capps was non-tendered by the Pirates Saturday, and the Marlins are rumored to be one of the many teams interested in signing him.

Leo Nunez may have some competition for the closer’s job this spring, after all.

The Marlins are among teams interested in reliever Matt Capps, who was non-tendered by the Pirates on Saturday. The Marlins tried to trade for Capps this past summer, dangling RF Jeremy Hermida to Pittsburgh. Capps made $2.425 million in 2009, and he’s believed to be asking for about the same.

Capps posted career lows in 2009, going 4-8 with a 5.80 ERA and 27 saves in 32 opportunities.

Capps has made it clear he still wants the chance to close, and right now the Nationals appear to be his team of preference. Based on the amount of interest in him, and the fact that he wants a multi-year deal, I wouldn't hold my breath waiting to see if he'll be in teal and black next season. But while you're breathing normally, if you're interested, fangraphs has picked apart what was behind Matt's ineffectiveness in 2009.

Astros show interest in Kelly Johnson, Gustavo Chacin and Jason Michaels sign on the dotted line

HighLeveragePerformer — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 12:00:29 -0000

More photos » by John Amis - AP

How does "Kelly Johnson, Houston Astro" sound?

Browse more photos »

After second baseman Kelly Johnson was non-tendered by the Atlanta Braves, a number of teams have expressed interest in him. That link notes that the D-Backs are on record that their hat has been thrown in the KJ ring, but Tim Dierkes said Monday on his site that three NL Central clubs: the Pirates, Cardinals and Astros desire his services to various extents.

Johnson's non-tendering came as a surprise to many, including clack, and his bat would be welcome in Houston, assuming he returns to his normal self after a down 2009. Take Bill James' optimistic projection and the fan's projections off FanGraphs, and you can get a pretty good idea of what is expected out of the middle infielder in 2010.

This wouldn't be an offseason-defining signing by Ed Wade, but if the Astros could get Johnson, the team would be much improved. The Diamondacks are in a position where they would trade another one of their backup infielders in order to create space for Johnson. Neither the Cards or Buccos have the greatest infields in the world, and while Pittsburgh signed Bobby Crosby to bolster theirs, it's not as if Kelly Johnson wouldn't be able to get significant playing time in Pittsburgh. St. Louis may not get Troy Glaus back, which leaves them with Skip Schumaker, David Freese, and Joe Thurston at 2B/3B entering spring training. Not exactly household names.

Pedro Feliz is an upgrade for Houston over Geoff Blum, but it's no guarantee that Feliz will be even a win better than Blummers. Kaz Matsui is injury-prone at second, is coming off a disappointing season and his backup, Edwin Maysonet, does not project to be anything special. Cost is something to focus on, as KJ made $2.8 million in 2009 and should demand a contract worth more than that in 2010. A deal in the mid-3 millions for one season maybe a gamble worth taking, especially if Wade cannot sign a starting pitcher or convert Jason Bourgeois to a second baseman as some have hypothesized.

Just when we thought we were getting rid of him...he pulls us back in. Or rather, we pull him back in. That's right: Jason Michaels has been re-signed to an $800,000 contract. Again, not a disaster, but the money could have been better allocated elsewhere. I would still like to see the team make a move for Ryan Church, if their budget allows for it. Bottom line, as with most of the Astros' moves, this won't be the difference between a postseason berth and another Astro-less October. Michaels wasn't near as bad as I thought he was in 2009, but I would have liked to have seen Wade think a little more out of the box. Reggie Abercrombie, and the aforementioned Bourgeois and Church could be in the running for the fifth and assumedly final outfield reserve spot.

Alyson Footer also tweets that Gustavo Chacin has been signed to a minor league deal and given an invite to Spring Training. Chacin hasn't pitched in the majors since 2007 and hasn't pitched a full season since 2005, so let's not hold our breath on anything happening for him with the Astros. His experience working with pitching coach Brad Arnsberg in Toronto most likely has a lot to do with his being given a shot. Think of him as Russ Ortiz with perhaps a bit more upside.