SB Nation - Seattle Mariners

Fantasy Baseball: Early AL Closer Watch.

Ian, yo — Thu, 24 Dec 2009 03:04:26 -0000

More photos » by Kathy Willens - AP

8 months ago: New York Yankees closer Mariano Rivera delivers to a member of the Phillies AAA club during a spring training baseball game at the Yankees minor league complex in Tampa, Fla., Tuesday, March 31, 2009. (AP Photo/Kathy Willens)

Browse more photos »

We've seen a lot of trade rumors and trade analysis as of late and there really hasn't been any mention of the many teams with closer situations. We will check back in after a few months and see if anything has changed, but this is how things are looking as of now.

AL East

Yankees- I think we all know this answer. Mo' should be one of the top closers in the game again. One day, he may fall apart, but for a player of his caliber, he may retire before than happens. Next in line: Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain, Mark Melancon.
Red Sox- Jonathan Papelbon. In 2009, Papelbon posted a 1.85 ERA, which would lead you to believe he had a successful season. If you look at the peripheral stats, you'd see that Papelbon had an FIP of 3.05 and while he kept his K/9 above 10, he posted a BB/9 over 3 for the first time since his rookie season where he threw only 34 big league innings. I wouldn't be surprised to see Papelbon traded with the closer in waiting in Daniel Bard likely getting more work in the later innings. Next in line: Daniel Bard, Hideki Okajima, Manny Delcarmen.
Orioles- Mike Gonzalez. The Orioles signed Gonzalez to be their closer and I can't really see anyone challenging him for the job this year. Next in line: Jim Johnson, Kam Mikolio.
Blue Jays- Jason Frasor. While there is nothing concrete in Toronto, I think Frasor will be the guy in 2010. Frasor saved 11 games in 2009 and ended the season with an FIP of 2.99 and a K/BB of 3.50. I think if the season were to begin today, Frasor would be the man, but he could lose it fairly easily. Next in line: Scott Downs, Jeremy Accardo.
Rays- Rafael Soriano. The Rays either didn't seem confident or have other plans for J.P Howell in 2010. After trading prospect Jesse Chavez to Atlanta, the Rays are set at closer with Soriano. If he were to get hurt (which he does somewhat often) I would think Wheeler is the next on the list with Howell being the late inning lefty. Next in line: Dan Wheeler, J.P. Howell and Grant Balfour.

AL Central

Twins- Joe Nathan. See Mariano Rivera. Next in line: Jon Rauch, Pat Neshek, Matt Guerrier, Jose Mijares.
Tigers- Joel Zumaya. Currently the Tigers depth chart lists Zumaya as the closer. He's always been thought of as the closer of the future, but the Tigers have never really given him an extended look due to durability concerns. If made a closer, Zumaya could be a top level closer but he'll have to get his walks under control for that to happen. Next in line: Ryan Perry, Daniel Schlereth, Casey Fien, Phil Coke.
White Sox- Bobby Jenks. As we speak, Jenks seems to be the closer and is listed as such on the depth chart. Matt Thornton is the better pitcher, but experience could be key here. I still think Thornton ends up with the job at some point. Next in line: Matt Thornton, J.J. Putz.
Indians- Kerry Wood. Wood struggled in and there are a few more guys in waiting that could make this one of the more interesting (aka: avoidable) closer situations in 2010. Next in line: Chris Perez, Rafael Perez.
Royals- Joakim Soria. One of the more talented relievers in the game. He was hampered by injuries a bit in 2009 and still saved 30 games with a 2.21 ERA. I don't see him going anywhere. Next in line: Juan Cruz, Kyle Farnsworth.

AL West

Angels- Brian Fuentes. Didn't have the greatest season, but the Angels paid him to close, so I don't see him doing anything else. Next in line: Fernando Rodney, Kevin Jepsen.
Rangers- Frank Francisco. Francisco spent time on and off the DL in 2009 and the Rangers bolstered their bullpen by adding Chris Ray and Darren Oliver, making the closer role available to C.J. Wilson, Chris Ray, Francisco or fireballer Neftali Feliz. If the Rangers decide not to prepare Feliz to start, he could very easily become an elite closer. Next in line: Chris Ray, C.J. Wilson, Neftali Feliz.
Mariners- David Aardsma. The Mariners seem to be pushing for a playoff berth in 2010 by trading away Brandon Morrow for Brandon League and prospect Johermyn Chavez. League brings a big time GB% (which fits in with Seattle's league leading defense.) While I do think Aardsma will be the closer and will be successful, I wouldn't totally rule out a trade of one of the young, power arms in Seattle's pen. Next in line: Mark Lowe, Brandon League, Shawn Kelley, Joshua Fields.
Athletics- Andrew Bailey. The reigning AL Rookie of the Year is likely to be the closer for the A's in 2010, but that's what we thought about Brad Zeigler in 2009. I still see Bailey as the closer, however. Next in line: Brad Ziegler, Joey Devine, Michael Wuertz, John Meloan.

A's Sign Coco Crisp; Mariners Sign David Pauley

Randy Booth — Wed, 23 Dec 2009 23:32:10 -0000

You thought I would use a Coco Crisp photo, didn't you? via cache.boston.com

View full size photo »

A former Red Sox outfielder has made his way to California:

It's now official -- the A's signed center fielder Coco Crisp to a one-year deal with a club option for 2011, the team announced Wednesday.

The deal is reportedly worth $4.5 million and news of the A's and Crisp nearing an agreement was originally reported on Sunday. Crisp, who had surgery on both shoulders this year, passed his physical on Tuesday to make the signing official.

I was actually going to propose the Sox bring Crisp back as a fourth/fifth outfielder. Or at least try. But that was before Jason Bay fell through and before they signed Mike Cameron. With Cameron on board, it didn't make much sense to have Crisp as a backup. Nevertheless, he'll most likely be a starter in Oakland -- something he would never have had in Boston.

In other news, the Mariners signed David Pauley. You remember him? I liked him when he was in the Sox system. He did some things well. I'll always remember this from Pauley. It was a valiant effort from Pauley in the middle of the New York jungle. The Red Sox didn't win, but Pauley kept them in the game.

A Brief Summary Of Everything

Jeff — Wed, 23 Dec 2009 20:00:02 -0000

Note: by the way, the deal's official now.

For whatever it's worth, I haven't been away or anything. Matthew's just been on another level, saying everything that needs to be said while being interesting in saying it. This is a co-author blogging groove the likes of which we've never seen and I'm more than happy to ride it out.

When I first heard about the Morrow deal, I couldn't make sense of it, and the best explanation to me so far is one I've seen suggested by a few people - this is directly related to the Halladay/Lee exchange, the result of a handshake agreement between the M's and the Jays that Brandon Morrow would be headed to Toronto even though they couldn't work things out during the original window. Dave's got a few paragraphs on it. Basically, this is a trade that doesn't make a lot of sense on its own, given the context and the Mariners' needs, and when you have a trade that doesn't make a lot of sense made by an intelligent front office, you have to assume that you don't have all the information. This is not a falsifiable theory, but it does strike me as the most probable basis. Last week there was a weird three-way-but-not-three-way-deal in which we got Cliff Lee for very little. Now we make a trade with one of those teams where it seems like we're giving up too much. I have to think they're connected. But, hey, maybe not.

Update: Z says that this deal and the Lee deal were separate. If it's true that these moves aren't related, that we're forced to consider that either the M's did this to prepare for another move or, more likely, Brandon Morrow just isn't seen as being that valuable around the league. Which, in turn, would also tell us a lot about how the M's see Edwin Jackson. But then the M's have been after Jackson for more than a year. Now I'm confused.

The Phillies traded Cliff Lee because they couldn't afford both him and Roy Halladay. Now they're allegedly chasing Fernando Rodney. Incredible.

I think Matthew has done a good job of explaning why we all may have been overrating Brandon Morrow. His secondary stuff sucks, he's made zero progress as a starter, and he doesn't throw strikes. He is, right now, a decent reliever with solid-starter upside, but the odds that he never develops into something special are remarkably high. With that said, it is also necessary that we avoid the trap of taking Brandon League as some kind of guarantee. League, to date, has had one really good season, a season in which he started throwing a splitter a third of the time. He missed bats, he got groundballs, he got hitters to chase pitches out of the zone - Brandon League, in 2009, was really really good. At the same time, though, he's a reliever. Some good relievers from 2008: Grant Balfour, Brian Fuentes, Brad Lidge, Kerry Wood, Jose Arredondo, Will Ohman, Rafael Perez, Brandon Morrow...relievers are volatile. This isn't anything new or groundbreaking, but sometimes we can lose sight of that fact. Remember how quickly JJ seemed to lose it?

League is a good bet in 2010. He's young, he has good stuff, and the fact that his newfound success was tied to a change in his repertoire suggests sustainable causality. But nothing is certain, and we shouldn't take him for granted. While his odds of remaining awesome are good, the odds of regression or even disaster are very real, and not to be ignored.

I do love Brandon League, though. Unless you believe in the sustainability of warning track fly balls, he's better than David Aardsma. Relievers with good stuff are nothing new for the Mariners. Relievers with good stuff that can avoid walks, however, make me do the Wallace & Gromit hand clap.

My personal favorite angle on the Morrow/League deal: this is Jack Zduriencik trying to clear the organization of as many Bavasi players as he can. Yeah, that's sensible. A good GM doesn't make moves for the sake of making moves, and he doesn't make moves just to prove a point. Z didn't inherit the Bavasi Mariners. He inherited the Mariners. As soon as Z rose to power, Bavasi's players became Zduriencik's players, and you only move your players if you think that doing so will help the team get better. If Z thought less of Brandon Morrow simply because he was drafted by the Bavasi regime, that would make Z a retard, and Z isn't a retard, unless he's the most functional and intelligent retard of all time.

An important reminder: Brandon Morrow's career FIP in the bullpen is over 4, and his career FIP in the rotation is over 5. Morrow is all potential. Although he's thrown nearly 200 Major League innings, he is still very much a prospect. I'd argue that he's more of a prospect than a guy like Nick Hill or Doug Fister. While the term "prospect" is used interchangeably with "talented minor leaguer," it shouldn't be.

Yohermyn Chavez is interesting, but nothing else. My personal philosophy is that, barring extraordinary tools, you shouldn't pay much attention to a minor leaguer until he's done something in AA, and Chavez hasn't gotten there yet. In time, maybe, but I'm not going to get my hopes up.

All offseason long, I was convinced that we'd end up trading Morrow for a regular first baseman. Now I don't know what to think, as the front office remains way ahead of me. Free agent options are still hanging around, but with Michael Saunders suddenly looking like a possible trade chip, I'm not even going to bother speculating on who's the most likely find.

Interesting to see Morrow come clean about how much his treatment in 2008 hurt his development as a starter. Just another reason to root against Carlos Silva as a pitcher and as a person. You do not deserve to be happier than me, Carlos.

An important difference between Brandon League's goggles and RRS' goggles is that Brandon League's goggles are more reflective. The additional reflectiveness makes League more intimidating. Also making League more intimidating is the fact that he doesn't have pinpoint command and throws a hundred miles per hour.

Mariners Add David Pauley to SP Depth

Matthew — Wed, 23 Dec 2009 18:38:47 -0000

Zduriencik and Co inked up 26-year-old starting pitcher David Pauley, formally of San Diego, Boston and Baltimore, to a Minor League contract today.

Normally, minor league contracts are not going to get much coverage, but Pauley interests me a bit. Namely because of his minor league swinging strike rate. See, Pauley's not a Morrow replacement. He doesn't throw gas, sitting in the high 80s with his fastball. He's got some other slop as well, mostly a mid-70s curve, to go along, but the fastball is his predominant pitch.

Pauley has spent almost the entire last three seasons in Triple-A and has averaged about 9.3% swinging strikes while staying consistent in that range. He's a moderate ground ball guy, staying just north of 50%. Also, his inning totals in Triple-A? 147.2, 147, 150.1. His strikeout numbers? 105, 103, 106. His walk numbers? 48, 41, 44. I have a good feeling about what he'll do in Tacoma next year...

That's if he stays in Tacoma all year. My limited scouting sense wants to scream that this is just another guy who can get Triple-A bats out but who lacks the stuff to get Major League hitters out. A Quad-A guy in the vein of Bobby Livingston, Jakubauskas, and the myriad other guys whose names I cannot possibly be bothered to remember. The lack of turning swinging strikes into a significant strikeout advantage over three years points to that. If he were left-handed or a harder thrower, I would be more interested. Then again, he's never gotten a real shot in the Major Leagues, so maybe he might be a surprise.

Either way, he looks to be some solid starting depth for Tacoma, with no service time, added for essentially free.

Carlos Silva, A Recap

Matthew — Wed, 23 Dec 2009 17:00:27 -0000

by Mark Avery - AP

NO LONGER OUR PROBLEM!

View full size photo »

Just as a reminder, this guy is no longer part of our team!

Carlos Silva faced 821 batters as a Mariner. He, and his defense, and his park, managed to retire 546 of those, resulting in 182 innings pitched. For reference, that's just 18 more innings, nine per year, than Erik Bedard pitched while a Mariner. It's also 57 fewer innings than Felix Hernandez pitched. Last year alone.

79 strikeouts. That's 3.9 strikeouts per nine innings pitched, or put better, 9.6% of all batters faced. Among Major League starting pitches expected to toss at least 100 innings in 2009, a 9.6% strikeout rate would have been the second worst in all of baseball, a smidgen ahead of Jeremy Sowers. In 2008 it would have been third worst ahead of only Livan Hernandez and Kyle Kendrick.

While the league average swinging strike rate for starting pitchers hovers just below 8%, Carlos Silva had a combined 4.7% rate. That would have ranked fourth worst in 2008 and dead last in 2009.

41 walks combined between 2008 and 2009. That's 2.0 per nine, or 5.0% of batters faced. Due credit, that would have ranked 16th best in 2008 and 8th best in 2009.

25 home runs allowed during his Seattle stint comes to 1.24 per nine or just over 3% of batters faced, a slightly worse than average rate.

The league average for ground balls is just about 43%. Carlos Silva's 44% rate certainly did not do much to aid him while in Seattle.

A 6.05 tRA is over a run worse than league average. Carlos Silva was about as bad as Zack Greinke was good in 2008 or CC Sabathia in 2009. Silva was on the same level as 2008-era Paul Byrd or 2009s Livan Hernandez.

Add it all up and by tRA's measurements you have a pitcher that totaled 0.4 wins below replacement during his tenure with the Mariners. And to top it off, he spent 147 days on the disabled list.

Good riddance.

Wednesday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Wed, 23 Dec 2009 15:19:53 -0000

More photos » by Chris O'Meara - AP

Here's a photograph of Chris Waters, the free agent pitcher the Brewers signed without any of us noticing.

Browse more photos »

Some things to read while cleaning up the mess this will make.

Tom Haudricourt noted this morning that $4 million of Randy Wolf's 2010 salary has been deferred, meaning his impact on next season's payroll is only $5.25 million. He cites that as evidence that the Brewers are closing in on the top of their budget, but it's also possible that savings could be used on another move.

Meanwhile, a couple of minor signings slipped through the cracks over the last week or so: Baseball America's Minor League Transactions notes the Brewers signed pitcher Chris Waters and shortstop Anderson Machado to minor league deals. Waters has started 12 games for the Orioles over the last two seasons, posting an ERA over 5. He's also made 53 appearances (42 starts) in the minors over that time, mainly in AAA.

Machado is likely little more than minor league depth: 2010 will be his 12th minor league season, and the Brewers will be his seventh organization. With that said, he's a shortstop, and the Brewers don't have much depth at the position in the upper levels of the minors.

Baseball Musings is working their way from A to Z this offseason, producing a quick bio of each major league player. Yesterday, Dave Pinto had this post on Ryan Braun and some of his early accomplishments.

I know we love Prince Fielder around here, but I'm still not sure he's getting the attention he deserves nationally as one of the game's elite hitters. The B-Ref blog notes that there have only been 14 players over the last three seasons to average .8 or more total bases per out made. Fielder is one of just three players to do it twice in that span. (Chipper Jones and Albert Pujols are the others.)

Fielder is also the Brewer representative in The Walkoff Walk End Of Decade Personality Compendium Infocaps.

If you're feeling nostalgic as we approach the end of 2009, Adam McCalvy has a list of Brewer highlights from the past season. There certainly were plenty of memorable moments: McCalvy listed 21, but Jason Dondlinger and I picked up on two more he forgot.

You have until 4 pm today to vote for a #2 starter for our BCB All Decade Team. At the moment, CC Sabathia leads the field by a wide margin. You also have until 4 pm Saturday to select our final position player.

In the minors: Lorenzo Cain had a somewhat puzzling run with the Peoria Javelinas in the Arizona Fall League, and there's some positive and some negative to take away from it. At the very least, he saw a lot of pitches, as demonstrated by the fact that he was among the league leaders in both walk and strikeout percentage.

Around baseball:

Braves: Acquired Melky Cabrera, pitcher Mike Dunn and a minor leaguer from the Yankees for pitchers Boone Logan and Javier Vazquez.
Mariners: Will reportedly receive outfielder Johermyn Chavez as the prospect in the Brandon Morrow/Brandon League deal.
Mets: Are reportedly close to a minor league deal with R.A. Dickey.
Royals: Signed outfielder Brian Anderson to a one year deal.

We've spent more than enough time this offseason discussing draft pick compensation for players, the risks involved in offering arbitration and whatnot. With that said, Beyond the Box Score has a great conversation starter discussing the value of expected compensation picks and comparing it to the value of available prospects. (FanShot)

Ever wonder what it's like to be a beat reporter on the road with the team? El Lefty Malo has a great interview with Giants beat reporter Henry Shulman, covering topics like objectivity, burnout and the offseason.

Another former Brewer has landed on his feet: Rattler Radio noted that the Great Lakes Loons of the Midwest League will have 1987-1991 Brewer Chuck Crim as their pitching coach next season.

I'll warn you in advance: Don't click the link unless you've got half an hour to spare, but if you have the time Joe Posnanski's piece on Strat-o-Matic and the Negro Leagues is a must-read. Even as someone who doesn't know all that much about the Negro Leagues and has never played Strat-o-Matic, I got started reading the post and couldn't put it down until I'd finished it. This morning's Mug is significantly later as a result.

On this day in 2000, the Brewers signed Jeffrey Hammonds to a three year, $22.2 million deal. If we held a poll today, Jeff Suppan's contract would almost certainly be voted the worst deal in franchise history, but Hammonds merits consideration: he missed most of the 2001 season, posted a 93 OPS+ the 2002, and was released after getting off to a .158/.220/.289 start in 2003.

We're awash in Brewer birthdays today:

Brad Nelson, who unfortunately will likely be most remembered for his 0-for-21 start to the 2009 season, turns 27 today.
Jesus Colome, who pitched in five games for the 2009 Brewers, turns 32.
1985-1986 Brewer Tim Leary turns 51.
Dave May, 1970-1974 Brewer and 1973 All Star, turns 66.

Oh, and if you still need a Christmas gift, might I humbly suggest a TMNT Snuggie?

Drink up.

Beating the Market

Matthew — Wed, 23 Dec 2009 04:18:27 -0000

Dramatization. May not have happened.

View full size photo »

Let's return to happy thoughts, shall we?

Remember back before the offseason began when we were lamenting how difficult it was going to be to turn this team into a contender. That was because the team had some decent talent and lots of interesting depth, but didn't have a lot of high-upside or well above average players.

And while the team did have loads of money to spend, they were entering the winter as a ~75 win team on paper. Market value for a win acquired via free agency is about $4.25 million so spending all of our roughly $30M (p.s. Love ya, Kenji!) that way would have allowed the team to add about seven wins. In other words, we could have spent our way to about .500 baseball. Not good enough.

We know what happened instead, I won't bother re-hashing the actual moves. The thought did cross my mind today about just how much money Jack has saved the team in terms of acquiring wins though. Please note that this is not a full balance work up. Unlike Dave's post-Lee trade evaluation, I'm not going to talk about the value of the prospects we gave up, or the draft picks we've received back. For here, I am only concerned with the value into and out of the Major League roster.

Now then, the three main additions are Chone Figgins, Cliff Lee and Milton Bradley. Figgins is a 3-3.5 WAR projection offering a bit of an upgrade over what we would have figured to receive were Adrian Beltre to remain in the fold. Beltre entered free agency though, so that is not who Figgins was replacing. Rather he was usurping Jack Hannahan or Matt Tuiasosopo or some such at third base. Either one was worth about a single win, so Figgins is a 2-2.5 win upgrade.

Cliff Lee is a monster beast. He's been worth well over six wins the last two seasons and if he weren't a pitcher, I would feel comfortable putting him at six or above for 2010 as well. We don't even have to worry about the whole NL guy coming to the AL issue since the majority of his career has been in the American League. However, since he is a pitcher, I knock him down to the 5-5.5 WAR range. Thanks to the chained nature of pitching staffs, Lee knocks our worst starting pitcher, some Vargas/Fister/Olson hybrid, off. Once again, the incumbent had about one win worth of value, which makes Lee a 4-4.5 win upgrade.

Milton Bradley is the latest and not quite greatest* newcomer to the party posse. Bradley's injury and attitude issues make him a tougher bet to project forward. While he can certainly provide three to four wins, his best bet is around the 2 WAR range as our semi-permanent DH. That's not awful though since our other options at DH were excruciating, pushing the ceiling at maybe a half-win, making Bradley a solid 1-2 win upgrade.

*In terms of improvement. In terms of Not Silva, wooooooo!

Add them up and here's the facts. Lee, Figgins and Bradley are in the vicinity of 11 wins over generic replacement players and about 8-9 wins over the in-house options that they replaced. For that, their increased cost on the 2010 payroll totals $21 million*. Over the Mariner replacements, that means BlackJack Z spent about $2.5 million per win, roughly 60% of the market rate. If you want to stick to the traditional measure and compute it over league replacement, then the marginal cost drops to $1.9 million per win.

*If you want to consider Milton Bradley a $15 million increase then you also have to consider the saved roster spot from Carlos Silva going away since he departs from the Major League roster.

Jack Zduriencik arrived at the offseason, took a stroll around and cased the joint. And then he went home, booted up Photoshop, printed off some fake Half Off! stickers and robbed the place blind.

More on Brandon League

Matthew — Tue, 22 Dec 2009 22:30:14 -0000

There have been some passing comments mentioned about Brandon League possibly being a starter down the line so I thought I would address that along with a more thorough review of what he is as a player. League was drafted out of college a few years ago where he was a part time starter until his final season in which he finally was made a full time starter and pitched just under 100 innings.

Since being drafted, League has spent the majority of his time in the bullpen, with occasional attempts in the rotation to see if he could stick there. Unfortunately, his over-reliance on his fastball has made him a poor fit so far, though he does has a secondary pitch that he's been working on for a while and has shown flashes at times of being useful.

Yes, League has shown some electric stuff at times. That secondary pitch he's shown off can be superb breaking ball and he has a fastball that can touch 100. His issues have always been spotty command and frankly, it's shown little to no improvement over the past three seasons.

To be a successful starter, League needs time to develop those secondary offerings for sure, but working on those means working on his fastball less and it's not like his fastball is a finished product. It gets some good movement and it certainly has velocity, but his control over it has been come and go, at best.

In addition to the one-sidedness of his pitching repertoire, League would also need to prove that he can handle a bigger work load. He's never thrown more than 120 innings combined in any one season and even then has battled arm injuries so his future as a possible starter seems washy. If you wanted to try him there, one gets the impression that he might need a complete reboot, put into the Double-A rotation and pretend like the last couple years never happened.

League has upside, for sure. Somebody with that kind of stuff always will. Unless he takes a step forward with both his durability and his control however, he likely tops out as a 0.5-1 WAR player either in the pen or rotation.

Wait, one more thing...

I got my Brandons mixed up. Everything I wrote above is about Brandon Morrow.

It's common for us, as fans, to overvalue the potential of our prospects. Brandon Morrow's upside has been bandied about a lot post trade, and in the interest of fairness, I wanted to dump some reality* on the picture. People imagine Morrow as he was during his first start against the Yankees. Sure, he has that potential. But he also has Edwin Jackson potential. The Edwin Jackson that took years to show any real improvement.

*In full disclosure, reality may contain large amounts of rationalization.

Yes, Brandon Morrow has potential to be a dynamite #2 rotation guy. But the odds that he would turn into that while under team control are just so far out there. The notion that Morrow's a starter is basically been built out of 14 starts he made in 2005-6 and that he has a good fastball. He's never shown that he can handle the innings. His fastball, the one pitch he constantly sticks with, hasn't gotten better. He walks a ton of people and he's been put through the wringer as far as confidence goes.The far more likely outcome is that Brandon Morrow becomes about as valuable as Brandon League is right now.

To be clear, I am not enamored with this trade. But giving up on Morrow is not like giving up on Adam Jones. It's like giving up on Matt Thornton or Francisco Cruceta. Sometimes it bites you in the ass, sometimes the guy never takes that step forward or he gets hurt.

Furthermore, there's a decent chance that Brandon League is more valuable to the team in 2010 than Brandon Morrow would be. First of all, League is a better reliever. He balances a few less strikeouts with notably better control and an extreme advantage in ground balls. And if he maintains the gains he took in 2009 with his new splitter, then watch out, he's better than Aardsma. League comes with his own injury and regression concerns as well of course, but the injury seems to have been of a more isolated nature and was muscular, not ligament-related. And the dramatic difference in pitch selection in 2009 lends one hope of avoiding performance regression.

Morrow's slot in the rotation is now open, for now occupied with one of our plethora of back end fringey types like Jason Vargas or Doug Fister. There's also now a stocked bullpen which means Z's attention probably turns toward picking up one of the handful of veteran or injury-risk starters still hanging around, any of whom are likely better bets than Morrow.

It's not a fabulous trade, but if you are rational about what Brandon Morrow is, then I think you'll see this isn't a fleecing. A dynamite #2 rotation guy is what Morrow's ceiling was when drafted, I'm not sure he's any closer to it now then he was then and other teams know that too.

Blue Jays close to acquiring Brandon Morrow

Eli Greenspan — Tue, 22 Dec 2009 15:51:39 -0000

More photos » by Tony Gutierrez - AP

Browse more photos »

The Blue Jays and Mariners have worked hard to revamp their rosters, making another move early this morning for a former top prospect.

The Mariners have agreed to send starting pitcher Brandon Morrow to the Blue Jays in exchange for pitcher Brandon League, another reliever, and a prospect to be named later.

Morrow's ERA in 197 2/3 career innings sits at 3.96, and he has averaged more than a strikeout per inning. Putting him in a situation where he can know his role is key to the young pitchers development.

Tuesday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Tue, 22 Dec 2009 14:41:40 -0000

More photos » by Charlie Riedel - AP

I wasn't able to find a picture of Gregg Zaun blocking a pitch, but here's one of him blocking the plate from a baserunner. You get the idea.

Browse more photos »

Some things to read while coming so close.

Thanks to Rubie for filling in yesterday while I was on my way back from a long travel weekend. I'm home now and will also write Mugs tomorrow and Thursday, health permitting: Somewhere on my travels, I managed to pick up a cold. If today's Mug drifts off into incoherence, now you know why.

The holiday week is usually a quiet one for transactions, but Adam McCalvy said the Brewers likely aren't done adding players in a recent Inbox. He also handled questions on a possible Opening Day lineup, Zach Braddock, and the roof at Miller Park.

Further proof that Gregg Zaun is a better catcher than Jason Kendall, at less than half the price: Beyond the Box Score's Catcher Block Percentage rankings have Zaun listed as the best catcher in baseball at preventing wild pitches and passed balls, adding roughly seven runs per 120 games to his value. Jason Kendall was worth roughly two runs, while Mike Rivera projected out to 5.5 runs per 120 games.

Speaking of Rivera, he's signed a minor league deal with the Yankees, with an invitation to spring training.

Meanwhile, LaTroy Hawkins has probably already finished packing and moving, because he's got plenty of experience in the field. The Northwest Indiana Post-Tribune notes that the Brewers will be Hawkins' eighth team.

Speaking of much traveled pitchers, Adam Foster of Project Prospect had an interesting note on John Halama: He faced 210 batters in winter ball and issued just three walks. Halama's Dominican team has been eliminated from postseason contention, along with Alcides Escobar and Hernan Iribarren's Venezuelan team. For more on that, plus notes on several new Brewers and the winter ball debut of Angel Salome, check out today's oversized Winter League Update.

And, while I'm self promoting, you have until 4 pm today to vote for a fifth outfielder and 4 pm tomorrow to vote for a #2 starter on our BCB All Decade Team. Also, follow us on Twitter.

Around baseball:

Blue Jays: Have reportedly reached a deal to acquire Brandon Morrow from the Mariners for pitcher Brandon League and a minor leaguer.
Braves: Signed infielder Joe Thurston to a minor league deal.
Indians: Acquired pitcher Mitch Talbot as the PTBNL in the Kelly Shoppach deal, and signed reliever Saul Rivera to a minor league deal.
Marlins: Signed utilityman Danny Richar to a minor league deal.
Nationals: Signed Jason Marquis to a two year, $15 million deal.
Padres: Acquired catcher Dusty Ryan from the Tigers for a PTBNL or cash.
Phillies: Announced plans to exercise Jimmy Rollins' option for 2011.
Pirates: Signed reliever Javier Lopez to a one year deal.
Rangers: Signed Darren Oliver to a one year deal.
Reds: Re-signed Laynce Nix and restructured and extended Scott Rolen's contract.
Tigers: Signed pitcher Phil Dumatrait and catcher (and former Brewer minor leaguer) Andy Bouchie to minor league deals.
White Sox: Claimed pitcher Freddy Dolsi off waivers from the Tigers.

I've mentioned this topic several times: sorry if you don't think it's interesting, but I find it fascinating. The Blue Jays are apparently bucking the minor league per diem trend and giving their players $25 dollars a day for meal money instead of $20 next season. The change will cost the team less than $50,000, but could go a long way towards helping their prospects get proper nutrition.

With 93 career wins, a Cy Young Award, and six straight seasons with an ERA under 4, Pete Vuckovich has a lot to be proud of from his major league career. Of course, all of that pales in comparison to his induction into the MLB Mustache Hall of Fame.

Happy birthday today to:

2003-2005 Brewer Wes Obermueller, who turns 33.
1992 Brewer Andy Allanson, who turns 48.

And a couple of belated ones I missed over the weekend:

Chris Narveson turned 28 on Sunday.
LaTroy Hawkins turned 36 yesterday.

Drink up.