SB Nation - St. Louis Cardinals

Type-B personalities

DanUpBaby — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 17:00:24 -0000

Your Type A and B free agents for the 2009-2010 Hot Stove season:

TYPE A

Matt Holliday: This seems pretty obvious. Bad news: the Mets, Holliday's current Media Suitor of choice, have a protected first rounder in 2010, leaving the Cardinals stuck with a second rounder should he end up bolting for Queens. I hate to root for the Red Sox, ever, for anything, but they do have the 29th pick...

TYPE B

Mark DeRosa: This also seems pretty obvious. I don't want the Cardinals to resign DeRosa, because his versatility is of questionable value for this team at this point in time, but I don't doubt that somebody will.

Joel Pineiro: Do it. Are the Brewers looking for another starter?

Troy Glaus: This is maybe the oddest case. Troy Glaus made $11.25 million last year, which works out to something like the league minimum per plate appearance, and while last season's salary is not inextricably linked to next year's, as it is for arbitration cases who aren't yet free agents, it's tough to imagine the Cardinals winning the case by offering less than, say, $7 million. That's still a lot of money per plate appearance.

But if the Cardinals aren't interested in going into the season with David Freese as the sole option there's no reason not to offer Glaus arbitration. Healthy, Glaus is as good a player as Adrian Beltre or [type A free agent] Chone Figgins, and he's the only one who would, if he accepted arbitration, be a one year commitment. If he's unhealthy, the Cardinals already have David Freese.

That seems like a low-risk shot at a draft pick, but last year the Cardinals didn't offer Braden Looper, another fair bet, arbitration, so it remains to be seen whether the Mozeliak Cardinals are avoiding the procedure as a general rule. After the jump: yet another outfield option emerges.

Not enough tires yet kicked? Ready to seek out the poor man's Mike Cameron? Randy Winn, the only sitting all-star to ever be traded for a manager, is officially out of a job in San Francisco. I'll be honest: I don't think I could get on board for this. But I can see a case made. Here's what it requires:

Complete faith in UZR. Do you believe it's possible for a 35 year-old career CF/RF tweener to be a defensive juggernaut in the corners? After a long career as a basically average tweener, Winn's spent the last two years almost entirely in left and right and put up 30 (Fielding Bible) or 34 (UZR) runs above the average corner outfielder, who admittedly is often a first baseman, a baseball hater, a crawling man with a glove painted on his back, or all three at once. If he'd been doing this his whole life, or if he had once been Colby Rasmus or Mike Cameron in center, I might accept this at face value, but as best we can tell Winn was once a marginally above-average center fielder, and that was several years ago.
More optimism than even the (still misleadingly named) Bill James projections, which have, in the past, seemed to regress all hitters in the general direction of year-2000 Coors Field. Freely available, now, at Fangraphs, these projections expect Winn to get an entire win back from his miserable 2009 season, which at .276/.337/.389 would still make him three runs worse than an average hitter. At his best—2008's .306/.363/.426 will do—he's Skip Schumaker with some extra power, which makes him an average corner outfielder before his apparently otherworldly defense is accounted for.
Most importantly, the intestinal fortitude to accept another minor disaster in left field. Winn is a good bounceback candidate, but so is Rick Ankiel, so was Chris Duncan; are the Cardinals, with Carpenter, Wainwright, and Pujols currently in their primes, ready to take another high-downside risk at perhaps their easiest-to-upgrade spot on the roster. Winn'll be cheaper than most outfielders who put up a four win season last year, but he's also got a better chance to be a one win player than most of them.

I'm not sure if I'm ready for all that yet, but I've always liked Winn as a player, and if the Cardinals have pinpointed other areas on which to spend their payroll windfall (I would be willing to sign for the minimum, so long as it's a short term deal) he's an interesting low-cost move.

Free Agent Profile: Jose Valverde

davoag — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 13:00:27 -0000

More photos » by Pat Sullivan - AP

Valverde found out how much money he could save with Geico...

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I recently read these two posts on Sabernomics by JC Bradbury about free agency. They got me thinking about how the Astros crop of free agents fits into the market, what kinds of deals comparable players got last season and what we could expect the (former) hometown boys to get this winter. Thus, another mini-series of posts on free agency.

[Sidenote 1: It's also worth noting that our first profile, Valverde, plays a position where the number of players doesn't necessarily correspond to openings on teams. Relievers can market themselves as closers without having vacated that position, thus making for a possibly over-glutted market where some guys will have to sign for significantly less as setup men]

Just the other day, I argued that the Astros should not offer Jose Valverde arbitration. My thinking was that Houston would be on the hook for way too much money, since Valverde would most likely accept the arbitration offer to get a big payday (albeit a one-year payday).

This may or may not be a popular opinion around these parts, so I thought we could look at the 2008 offseason to see what kind of contracts closer got. I ran down the biggies, the Type A's and a few other contracts that are similar to Valverde's numbers. For reference, El Papa Grande earned 8 million in 2009 and pitched 54 1/3 innings, striking out 56 and walking 21. Valverde converted 25 of 29 save opportunities and gave up five home runs. FanGraphs puts his value at a solid 3 million.

[Sidenote 2: I am skeptical of how WAR rates relievers, but after combing through some of this data, it looks like it comes close to nailing down closers, at least. Take that for what it's worth in the rest of this article]

The Comparables

Francisco Rodriguez, RHP, New York Mets

Contract Details: 3 years, 37 million (2m bonus, 09-8.5m, 10-11.5m, 11, 11.5m, 12-17.5m option)

Notes: K-Rod was not worth his contract last season, earning a value of just 1.5 million. Though relievers are typically devalued in WAR, I found that this wasn't necessarily the case with closers. Plenty of the contemporaries on this list had good, valuable seasons in the past. For instance, K-Rod was worth 17 million from 2007 to 2008. Unfortunately, he picked the wrong year to get injured. This contract would appear to be the upper range of Valverde's money.

Kerry Wood, RHP, Cleveland Indians

Contract Details: 2 years, 20.5 million (09-10m, 10-10.5m, 11-11m option)

Notes: Wood was worth 1.9 million in 2009 after totaling 10 million in value the previous season. His contract seemed to be in line with that, though his performance didn't suggest it would continue. It should be noted that only one reliever got a three-year deal. The rest had to settle for two-year deals or one-year fliers.

Brian Fuentes, LHP, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

Contract Details: 2 years, 17.5 million (09-8.5m, 10-9m, 11-9m option)

Notes: This would appear to be the kind of deal that makes sense for Valverde. Fuentes marked one of the few Type A closers that was both offered arbitration and signed with a team in the offseason. We'll get to a couple other examples in a minute, but for now, let's say Fuentes did much better n 2008 than Valverde did last season, but still couldn't land a deal longer than two years. His almost 9 million average is just above what Valverde earned in 2009, and would certainly be a starting place for any arbitration discussion.

The Other Type A's

Trevor Hoffman, RHP, Milwaukee Brewers

Contract Details: 1 year, 6 million (re-signed for 1 year, 8 million with an '11 option of 7 million)

Notes: Hoffman shows the other side of the coin for Valverde. The Padres did not offer Hoffman arbitration heading into last offseason, meaning a team would not have to give up draft picks to sign him. Despite coming off an injury-plagued season, the Brewers gave Hoffman a 6 million dollar tryout in 2009. The venerable saves champ was worth 6.7 million last season, so he performed to the contract and was rewarded with another one year deal.

Juan Cruz, RHP, Kansas City Royals

Contract Details: 2 years, 6 million (09-2.25m, 10-3.25m, 11-4m option)

Notes: Cruz was a surprise sign as a Type A free agent, since he had the heaviest cost, yet wasn't a closer. Of course, he was not good at all in 50 relief innings for the Royals this season, but this is Dayton Moore we're talking about. He'll do anything. As the quirkiest signing of last winter, Cruz fits right in. How much his situation will impact Valverde's is less clear. Cruz wasn't used the same way and didn't have the same relative value. Still, he got a contract in line with many middle relievers that will form the base of the reliever market.

The Outlier

Kyle Farnsworth, RHP, Kansas City Royals

Contract Details: 2 years, 9.5 million (09-4.25m, 10-4.5m, 11-5.25m option)

Notes: What did I say about Moore? He gave a 9.5 million dollar contract to Kyle Farnsworth, he of the ever-straight 150 MPH fastball. Of course, Trey Hillman felt obliged to use him in bizarre situations, confounding guys like Rob Neyer and Joe Posnanski. Farnsworth probably earned more money last season than he should have, but he was still worth 3 million, according to FanGraphs. That's also what Valverde was worth, as a point of reference.

Non-Free Agents of Note

Ryan Franklin, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals

Contract Details: 2 years, 6.5 million (signed Sept. 1, 2009)

Notes: Franklin saved 38 games for the Cardinals in 2009, but will be heading into his Age 37 season. The Cardinals wisely locked him up for a reasonable 6.5 million over two seasons. That significantly lowers the salary precedent for a guy like Valverde, though, as his agent will have to work off a contract like Soria's to get comparable numbers.

Heath Bell, RHP, San Diego Padres

Contract Details: 1 year, 1.25 million (2008)

Notes: Bell will be due a big raise in 2010, since he led the NL with 42 saves in 2009. Heading into another year of arbitration, the Padres may decide a closer is not a luxury they're willing to splurge on, making Bell tradeable. I'd expect him to fetch anywhere between 4-6 million in arbitration, so that's the number a team's looking at if they go and get Bell. That also means Bell would be that much cheaper than a guy like Valverde on the open market.

Forecast for Valverde

El Papa Grande is one of nine different pitchers who could market themselves as closers this offseason, including Billy Wagner, J.J. Putz, Fernando Rodney and Brandon Lyons. Now, most people would argue that Valverde is the best of the crop, but that also carries a price. We can surmise from last year's market that even Valverde will not get more than a three year deal, and that his ceiling is probably around 10 million. Coming off an injury plagued season, though, means his market will be compressed slightly. Add to that the more reasonable deals signed by Joakim Soria (3 years, 8.75 million) and Franklin, and Valverde will be lucky to get 8m per season. In arbitration, though? The Astros risk paying him anywhere from 3 million to 11 million next season if they offer arb. and he accepts. Given that Wade will have around 15-17 million to work with, is it worth eating up that much of the budget for a closer?

My assumption is the Astros will decline to offer him arbitration and he will sign a two year deal for somewhere around 18 million, with a possible third year option for 10 million. I won't guess who'd give him that contract, but looking at both the market and last year's offseason, those numbers seem right.

SB Nation Writers Vote: NL & AL Manager of the Year

Eli Greenspan — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 21:04:11 -0000

More photos » by Will Powers - AP

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Here are the results from the SB Nation's writers poll regarding the NL Manager of the Year award:

Rk	Manager	Team	1st	2nd	3rd	Pts
1	Jim Tracy	Colorado Rockies	24	1	2	125
2	Tony LaRussa	St. Louis Cardinals	3	7	10	46
3	Fredi Gonzalez	Florida Marlins	2	6	5	33
4	Joe Torre	Los Angeles Dodgers	-	9	2	29
5	Charlie Manuel	Philadelphia Phillies	-	3	5	14
6	Bruce Bochy	San Francisco Giants	1	1	1	9
7	Bobby Cox	Atlanta Braves	-	1	4	7
8	Bud Black	San Diego Padres	-	1	1	4
9	John Russell	Pittsburgh Pirates	-	1	-	3

And below are the results from the AL Manager of the Year vote:

Rk	Manager	Team	1st	2nd	3rd	Pts
1	Mike Scioscia	Los Angeles Angels	9	8	3	72
2	Ron Gardenhire	Minnesota Twins	9	5	1	61
3	Don Wakamatsu	Seattle Mariners	6	3	8	47
4	Joe Girardi	New York Yankees	2	4	2	24
5	Ron Washington	Texas Rangers	1	4	4	21
6	Terry Francona	Boston Red Sox	1	1	3	11
7	Jim Leyland	Detroit Tigers	-	2	4	10
8	Joe Maddon	Tampa Bay Rays	-	1	1	4
9	Ozzie Guillen	Chicago White Sox	-	-	1	1
10	Trey Hillman	Kansas City Royals	-	-	1	1

Let's hear some reaction from these results in the comment section below.

Signing Most-Valuable Players

DanUpBaby — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 18:00:36 -0000

You shoulda come to the first party—we didn't get home 'til around four in the morning. I was blind for three days...

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There's no new news, which means it's time we go over some old news: the decision to sign Ryan Franklin to a multi-year extension stipulating that he was not allowed to record another out in 2009. That particular clause was the main problem with the Franklin deal in particular, but since we didn't know about that at the time I think it's the principle of the thing that's wedged so tightly inside the Cardinals fanbase's collective craw. This team's management does so many things correctly; it's identified free talent like Ryan Ludwick, it's signed Adam Wainwright to a long-term deal at actual wainwright rates, and its drafts have improved tremendously since the seeds of what's become the new regime were first planted.

But Ryan Franklin was the second time in as many years that the Cardinals broke, to their own detriment, what was originally a Branch Rickey tenet and has since become a Sabermetrics 101 truism: Don't sign a player at the top of his value! This shouldn't be a difficult thing to grasp because it's so categorically true as to be basically meaningless; if you sign a guy at the very peak of his value, things can only go downhill from there.

I've thought about these contracts assuming, above all else, that John Mozeliak is a rational, above-average general manager; most of them are at this point, so it might be worthwhile to consider who else has made these two moves in recent years, and where it's left them.

THE LOHSE DEAL: Three long-term contracts obviously weirder than Kyle Lohse's

3. Juan Pierre. Five years, $44 million, 11/2006. What a terrible year for contracts this was—at the same time all of this was happening the Cardinals were getting ready to tear up Chris Carpenter's last two years, worth $15 million, so that they could hand him three more at an annual value of $15 million. Pierre is probably the nearest analogue to Kyle Lohse of the three I've got here; he's an intermittently useful regular who is being passed off, as salaries go, as the second banana on a pretty good team, not the guy who goes to the bench when somebody better shows up.

But more importantly, when the Dodgers pounced on Juan Pierre here—before the winter meetings, even—they seemed to be bidding against themselves. Pierre had just been traded from the Marlins for what at the time was a platter of second tier pitching prospects, and his year in Chicago hadn't exactly brought him back to the front of the national conscience. Who else was ready to offer Juan Pierre $44 million? Or Kyle Lohse $41?

2. Gary Matthews, Jr. Five years, $50 million, 11/2006. Stop me if you've heard this one before, maybe three times before: a player who has been useful in his own way for some time has a brilliant season that gets a lot of attention, not all of it for his tangible value. In the offseason he's signed to a contract that seems out of touch both with his apparent market value and the likely bounds of his performance, but the team in question is convinced that, despite being in his thirties, this player has found a new level of performance. He has not.

What makes the Sarge Jr. contract crazier than the Kyle Lohse deal, besides the additional year, is that the real Gary Matthews Jr. was a fourth outfielder with an inconsistent bat and a flashy glove. Since the Angels signed him, that's exactly what he's been. When it comes to inexplicable career year contracts, we're all Gary Matthews, Jr., Jr. Except for this man:

1. Vernon Wells. 114 years, $573 billion, 12/2006. Recently we were talking about how great it is to be able to lock up your own homegrown talent—how that's one of the keys to the Yankees' success, and, in the Blue Jays' case, one of the keys to competing with the Yankees. After looking at the Vernon Wells contract to this point, one might be tempted to never, ever sign another homegrown player again.

Vernon Wells was a trap; that's all there is to it. He looks like a homegrown franchise player; he plays center field, and in his second full season in the league he had an enormous season, hitting .317/.359/.550 and doing everything well. In his ill-fated contract year, he nearly reprised that season, hitting .303/.357/.542. But between those lines, and even between the lines' lines, there are more warning signals than you'll find on a pack of Canadian cigarettes. Between 2003 and 2006 are two extremely average lines; even in 2003 and 2006 there's a walk rate that keeps him from being an elite hitter. The Blue Jays were signing a player that they'd gotten for two non-contiguous years out of four to a deal that might even have been rich for that hypothetical guy.

They couldn't have known that his offense and defense would both take a complete nosedive by 2009, making him one of the worst players in baseball just in time for his contract to get to these numbers:

2010—$12.5 million
2011—$23 million

If I stopped here it would be a bad deal. But I've got more, one entirely separate bad deal—

2012—$21 million
2013—$21 million

That's like signing Vernon Wells to a bad contract—five years, $63 million—and then signing him again, at the conclusion of the contract, to Manny Ramirez's deal. (You know? It really is...)

THE FRANKLIN DEAL: Three mid-contract renegotiations less necessary than Ryan Franklin's

3. Vernon Wells. Why on earth did they renegotiate after his career year when they had one more on which to base things? Were they concerned that the Vernon Wells would take it as a serious personal affront?

2. Travis Hafner. You've got a slugger who has just turned 30 and who, while brilliant, has serious old player skills. He's gotten off to a slow start this season, but it's alright—you've got him signed through the end of the next year on a deal that's beneficial for all parties concerned. Do you A) wait out his slump, or B) sign him to a four year, $57 million contract that wipes out your attractive year and a half as a show of good will?

1. Chris Carpenter. It hurts, it really does. But at least we don't have to blame this one on John Mozeliak. I'm aware that this is easier for us to do, as armchair GMs, than it is for the actual executives, who are dealing with actual human beings they will have to see on a semi-regular basis. And it's not just the player—fans can be pretty quick to accuse teams of not opening up DeWallet, and the Vernon Wells deal was apparently engineered, to some degree, by the Blue Jays' owner.

But in general, contracts like Lohse's and Franklin's—on a smaller scale, luckily—illustrate how risky a business it is to use contracts to send messages to players, fans, or owners. A pat on the back might have done more good for Ryan Franklin than an extra $4 million on his head.

SB Nation Awards: Manager of the Year

Jim McLennan — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 16:25:16 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

Jim Tracy = NL Manager of the Year

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As well as the ongoing 'Pitties, we also have an SB Nation-wide set of awards, voted upon by two contributors from each site - in the case of the SnakePit, it's myself and 'Charmer. This week, those awards will be handed out: we start with the Manager of the Year today, and then tomorrow we have the Rookie of the Year; Wednesday is the Cy Young, and Thursday will be the MVP. As with the BBWAA awards, there's one for each league; for obvious reasons, we'll be concentrating on the National League awards, though will also mention the top few finishers in the American League, for completeness.

Rk	Manager	Team	1st	2nd	3rd	Pts
1	Jim Tracy	Colorado Rockies	24	1	2	125
2	Tony LaRussa	St. Louis Cardinals	3	7	10	46
3	Fredi Gonzalez	Florida Marlins	2	6	5	33
4	Joe Torre	Los Angeles Dodgers	-	9	2	29
5	Charlie Manuel	Philadelphia Phillies	-	3	5	14
6	Bruce Bochy	San Francisco Giants	1	1	1	9
7	Bobby Cox	Atlanta Braves	-	1	4	7
8	Bud Black	San Diego Padres	-	1	1	4
9	John Russell	Pittsburgh Pirates	-	1	-	3

Probably not too much of a surprise here, with the stunning turnaround achieved by Jim Tracy on the Colorado Rockies impressing the members of the SB Nation academy. After starting the season 18-28 under Clint Hurdle - a win percentage fractionally worse than the one that got the other 2007 NLCS manager, Bob Melvin, fired here in Arizona - Colorado went 74-42 the rest of the way. That extrapolates to a 103-win full season, an amazing reversal to disprove the argument that in-season managerial changes never work. It worked immediately in Denver, where they went 18-5 over his first four weeks, including a 16-1 run.

Be interested to hear from some of the visiting Rockies fans why they think it made such a difference to the team. I am, of course, supremely jealous that it didn't work out quite so well in Arizona - Bob Melvin's winning percentage (.414) was only improved upon slightly by AJ Hinch (.436). One of the suggestions touched upon in 'charmer's end of season review, was that the players in Colorado were much more on board with the change. The ones here had to be convinced, to varying degrees, both of the need for change and that Hinch was the right man for the job, given his lack of managerial experience.

My ballot is actually sitting at work, so I'm not certain who I picked, though I'm fairly sure that it was Tracy as my #1 - odds in favor, since he got 80% of the first-place ballots [looks like one blog didn't take part]. A lot less unanimity for the second- and third-place spots, with nine of the 16 NL teams seeing their helmsmen mentioned. I think I went for Fredi Gonzalez as my runner-up, based on the wonders worked in Florida on a budget that could be funded from the back of the sofa in George Steinbrenner's office. Fire sale or not, the Marlins are probably the poster-child for winning in a small market, and one can only wonder what Gonzalez might do if given a reasonable amount of cash.

Of course, this is as much an award for the front-office who construct the team: I'm really not certain how much influence the manager generally has. There are exceptions, however, and if any manager does affect his team, it's probably third-place finisher, Tony LaRussa. He has absolutely no hesitation in rejecting "conventional" wisdom when he feels it's in the best interests of winning, e.g. batting his pitcher eighth. If I could pick any other major-league manager to be in charge of Arizona, it'd be LaRussa. Elsewhere on the ballot, I'm not sure who voted for John Russell in Pittsburgh, for leading his team to a brilliant 62-99 record, ahead only of the Nationals. I went over to Bucs Dugout, and if it was them, they're not 'fessing up, yet...

I trust it wasn't 'charmer, anyway - I'm sure she will be along a llttle later to discuss her ballot and explain her picks. I'll finish with a quick mention of the American League results, where both Ron Gardenhire of the Twins and the Angels' Mike Scioscia ended up with nine first-place votes. However, Scioscia got more X's further down the ballot, and so took the award, with Don Wakamatsu of Seattle finishing behind Gardenhire. I can't believe that almost half the voters left Gardenhire off their ballots entirely: again, we're talking about a man who has worked wonders with little or no cash, and has got to be in the running, at the very least. He'd have got my vote, certainly, though as we only get to vote for our own leagues, that's a token gesture. Here's the full results there:

Rk	Manager	Team	1st	2nd	3rd	Pts
1	Mike Scioscia	Los Angeles Angels	9	8	3	72
2	Ron Gardenhire	Minnesota Twins	9	5	1	61
3	Don Wakamatsu	Seattle Mariners	6	3	8	47
4	Joe Girardi	New York Yankees	2	4	2	24
5	Ron Washington	Texas Rangers	1	4	4	21
6	Terry Francona	Boston Red Sox	1	1	3	11
7	Jim Leyland	Detroit Tigers	-	2	4	10
8	Joe Maddon	Tampa Bay Rays	-	1	1	4
9	Ozzie Guillen	Chicago White Sox	-	-	1	1
10	Trey Hillman	Kansas City Royals	-	-	1	1

Tomorrow, we'll continue the series with the Rookie of the Year award.

MLB Trade Rumors: On the Beat with John Perrotto Version

raygu — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 14:00:37 -0000

by Eric Risberg - AP

about 1 month ago: Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Chad Billingsley takes a break on the mound after the San Francisco Giants scored their third run in the fourth inning of a baseball game in San Francisco, Sunday, Sept. 13, 2009. San Francisco won the game 7-2; Billingsley was the losing pitcher. (AP Photo/Eric Risberg)

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Every Sunday, John Perrotto from Baseball Prospectus puts out an article talking about possible trade rumors and signings, along with analysis of the goings on around baseball. Yesterday's article was chock full of names who could be available in trade talks this offseason, with some suprise names.

Let's take a look after the jump:

Here is a list of names who could be available in trade talks per Perrotto:

Chad Billingsley Kerry Wood

Dave Bush Bobby Jenks

Jeremy Guthrie Pat Burrell

Adrian Gonzalez Nelson Cruz

Heath Bell Ryan Ludwick

Glen Perkins Dan Uggla

Kenshin Kawakami Juan Pierre

Derek Lowe Ryan Doumit

Javier Vazquez Dioner Navarro

Carlos Zambrano Jarrod Saltalamacchia

Matt Capps Geovany Soto

Christian Guzman Elijah Dukes

Corey Hart David Dejesus

Poll

What name on the Perrotto list is most surprising?

The Great General Manager Debate: NL Central Edition

davoag — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 13:00:27 -0000

The trade that made me lose faith in the Pirates suckitude...

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Part of my reaction to the Aki Iwamura trade was realizing how surprisingly competent the Pirates front office has become. They picked up a cost-controlled player for a replaceable part and improved their infield defense in the process. How is that a bad thing?

The funny thing is, the Pirates have been bad for so long, and it's so easy to dismiss their hires as actually being good baseball people, I had forgotten what Pittsburgh was actually getting in Neil Huntington. Here's another post from FanGraphs about what this trade means for the Pirates executives and here's an interview with Dan Fox, their database guru. Basically, the Pirates have a guy that gets to play with computer simulations all day until he can accurately evaluate and forecast players. I can get that job how?

It also made me start thinking about all the general managers in the National League Central. Which ones was I most afraid of? Which ones were a joke? Were there any teams that were run competently from year to year?

The thing that surprised me when I did my research was not that Ed Wade is probably the weakest GM in the Central, it's that so many of them have changed in the past two seasons. Justice loves to harp on how the organizational chaos Houston has gone through is affecting the club in many ways. Still, to see that so many of Wade's peers have also changed jobs recently is refreshing.

It's also scary, especially when at least four of these guys are competent-to-really good. After the jump is a look at each GM. Feel free to share your thoughts on who worries you the most in the comments...

Chicago Cubs

GM Jim Hendry

Tenure: Since July, 2002 ( 7 1/2 seasons)

Notes: The longest tenured general manager also has the biggest payroll of any team in the division. What does he do with all that money? Waste it. As scary as the Cubs lineup and rotation can be, Hendry alone makes me feel good about the Astros chances against Chicago in the near future.

This was a man who overpaid for guys like LaTroy Hawkins and Ted Lilly (though, to be fair, Lilly was excellent). He also spent a ton of money for Alfonso Soriano to play center field, and then promptly bumped him to left. Then, he spent a ton of money to bring in notorious pot-stirrer Milton Bradley, adding to the dangerous clubhouse dynamic that Lou Piniella always brings.

Funny thing, though, 134 million can buy you a damned good team. Hendry may have made mistakes in the past, but has done a good job of at least correcting them. He admitted failure with Rich Hill, shipping him off to Baltimore. He did turn Ryan Dempster into an effective pitcher in his new role with the Cubs. Hendry also has a productive farm system, with guys like Carlos Marmol and Geovanny Soto picking up the team on the cheap.

Would Hendry be this good without all that money? Probably not. In his market, though, it's tough not to make a big splash each season and have the fans be happy. Of all the GMs, though, I'm least afraid of Hendry.

Cincinnati Reds

GM Walt Jocketty

Tenure: Since 2008 (2 seasons)

Notes: The interesting thing about Jocketty is he went from a winning team to one that is continually frustrated by not being able to get over the hump. He also went to a team that walked away from a more progressive-thinking GM in former Twins assistant Wayne Krivsky for the more traditional Jocketty. Of course, Jocketty also followed Tony LaRussa from Oakland to St. Louis, so it's unclear how much of his philosophy is tied to LaRussa's.

The Reds haven't exactly been dramatic in making over the club, but Jocketty has shown a willingness to be aggressive with the team's prospects and not trade off valuable assets for overhyped players (I'm looking at you, Jim Bowden). Still, Jocketty hasn't shown the same level of success as at his previous two stops. It will take a little more time to see whether his player evaluation method transfers to the Reds scouting department. If Jocketty can hit a few home runs in the draft, the rest of his record in the Queen City will be moot.

Milwaukee Brewers

GM Doug Melvin

Tenure: Since September 2002 (7 seasons)

Notes: One of the two longest tenured GMs in the NL Central, Melvin has had an up-and-down career in Milwaukee. Yes, he did draft Rickie Weeks and Prince Fielder. Yes, he did trade for CC Sabathia. But, what have the Brewers actually won? This team seems to consistenly play for second place, which isn't bad, but until they can get over the hump mentally, Melvin may not be viewed more positively.

All indications are that Melvin is a more traditional GM. The Brewers don't leap out at you as a very sabermetric-friendly team, but they do have a little bit of the Oakland A's philosophy for a small market. The Brewers under Melvin consistently make unpopular decisions with players to avoid locking them up to bad contracts that hurt the team. Instead, they'll buy out arbitration years for a player, insuring cost certainty and rewarding young guys before they may be overpaid. Exhibit one is Ryan Braun.

Certainly, the biggest deficiency with the club is starting pitching. Melvin has shown a knack for making big moves (CC), regardless of his position as a small market team. He's also done a good job of drafting by talent and not positional needs (Matt LaPorta, anyone?). The obvious plus side of this is Melvin can then trade for pitching with his talent surplus. It will be interesting to see if Melvin can keep the pipeline going for the Brewers and tinker around the edges enough to get a winner.

Pittsburgh Pirates

GM Neil Huntington

Tenure: Since September 2007 (2 seasons)

Notes: Here is the crux of my argument. The Pirates are without a doubt the worst-run franchise in the National League. For years, they have been incompetent, both in the draft, in trades and in fielding winning ball clubs. Who can forget Randall Simon viciously attacking that poor Bratwurst in Milwaukee? Just horrible. Still, Huntington has done a great job of reversing this trend. He correctly indentified assets that were expendible, seems to have valued his minor leaguers correctly and his only big misstep so far has been the Bay trade. The big deal with the Yankees netted the Buccos a solid starter in Ross Ohlendorff and a young outfielder in Jose Tabata (who hasn't panned out). The Bay deal saw an iffy Andy LaRoche, a reliever (Craig Hanson) and a fourth or fifth outfielder (Brandon Moss) traded for one of the best left fielders in baseball.

Of course, if the Pirates had let Bay walk after the season like the Red Sox have, they'd be roundly criticized. The organization seems to be headed in the right direction. Count me as still skeptical, though, even with present evidence to the contrary.

St. Louis Cardinals

GM John Mozeliak

Tenure: Since 2008 (2 seasons)

Notes: Mozeliak took over a team that didn't have much to work with outside of a couple big money players (Pujols, Rolen, Carpenter) and a ton of farm talent. He's tinkered around the edges well and leaned heavily on his manager and pitching coach's reputations to slot in marginal guys into productive roles. Mozeliak stuck by Colby Rasmus through early slumps and made a big-ticket acquisition of Matt Holliday.

There are conflicting reports about his style, but it seems like he appreciates what the stats can tell him about the game and uses it to some degree. Yet, his philosophy seems to be grating on the older school ideas of Tony LaRussa. Combine that with his cold-blooded trade of Dave Duncan's son, Chris, and he's done quite a bit to alienate two of the most important cogs to the Cardinals machine for the past decade. Not that I'm complaining.

There are both good and bad qualities here, but I don't think we can judge Mozeliak fairly until he's out from under LaRussa's considerable shadow (the man's a genius, after all).

Houston Astros

GM Ed Wade

Tenure: Since September 2007 (2 seasons)

Notes: So, the thing about Ed Wade is he can't trade. I said some nice things in the past about the job he did leading up to this past season, but after reviewing his track record in Philly, I have a suggestion. Ed Wade needs to hire some smart, baseball-savvy mind to be his trade manager. Like a salary-cap manager in football, this person would handle all the ramifications of trades (scouting players, balance, contracts, etc.) and give his best recommendation to Wade. Only then could the big man sign off.

If you think I exaggerate, look at his transactions. Here's a link to Baseball-Reference's transaction page starting in 1998. Wade took over in January of that year. In his entire Philly tenure, he made two good trades: Billy Wagner and Kenny Lofton. Every other trade he made was a bloodbath. Eric Milton? He gave up Nick Punto and Carlos Silva. Scott Rolen? He got Placido Polanco and that's it. He traded Curt Schilling for nothing. He traded away a young Adam Eaton for a declining Andy Ashby. He traded two young pitchers for two relievers and Ron Gant. Who thought this was a good idea? In fact, Wade's history is chock-full of trades for relievers. It's the position he enjoys tinkering with most on the team. Unfortunately, relievers are fungible, and trading for them wastes cheap assets.

Thus, why I had the idea of a trade manager. I'm sure someone like Paul DiPodesta or Kevin Towers wouldn't mind being the Astros full-time trade scout, right? Either one would be imminently more qualified than Wade to make these kinds of decisions. And yes, I realize that Wade has made some decent trades with the Astros. Sticking to the numbers, though? That streak may not last forever.

AFL Rising Stars Game Rosters

raygu — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 14:15:11 -0000

The 2009 AFL Rising Stars game rosters are listed below for those of you who get the chance to see some of the best prospects in MLB in one game tonight at 8:15 on the MLB Network. Unfortunately, the Nationals pitching prospect Stephen Strasburg will not be making the start in this one with a "sore neck". What timing. But you will get the chance to see Buster Posey, Starlin Castro, Josh Vitters, Domonic Brown and Tanner Scheppers among others.


2009 AFL Rising Stars rosters
East Division						West Division

Position players

POS.	PLAYER	TEAM	ORG	POS.	PLAYER NAME	TEAM	ORG
C	Hank Conger	Mesa	LAA	C	Jason Castro	Saguaros	HOU
C	Buster Posey	Scottsdale	SF	C	Lucas May	Javelinas	LAD
IF	Brandon Allen	Scottsdale	ARI	IF	Yonder Alonso	Saguaros	CIN
IF	Josh Bell	Phoenix	BAL	IF	Zack Cozart	Saguaros	CIN
IF	Starlin Castro	Mesa	CHC	IF	Ike Davis	Surprise	NYM
IF	Chase d'Arnaud	Scottsdale	PIT	IF	Daniel Descalso	Surprise	STL
IF	Matt Dominguez	Mesa	FLA	IF	Carlos Rivero	Saguaros	CLE
IF	Brandon Snyder	Phoenix	BAL	IF	Mike Moustakas	Surprise	KC
IF	Josh Vitters*	Mesa	CHC	IF	Lance Zawadzki	Saguaros	SD
IF	Jemile Weeks	Phoenix	OAK	OF	Dustin Ackley	Javelinas	SEA
OF	Domonic Brown	Scottsdale	PHI	OF	Jordan Danks	Javelinas	CWS
OF	Grant Desme	Phoenix	OAK	OF	Chris Heisey	Saguaros	CIN
OF	Bryan Petersen	Mesa	FLA	OF	Daryl Jones	Javelinas	STL
OF	Jose Tabata	Scottsdale	PIT	OF	Casper Wells	Javelinas	DET
OF	Rene Tosoni	Mesa	MIN
Pitchers

POS.	PLAYER	TEAM	ORG	POS.	PLAYER NAME	TEAM	ORG
RHP	Andrew Cashner*	Mesa	CHC	RHP	Phillippe Aumont	Javelinas	SEA
RHP	Brandon Erbe*	Phoenix	BAL	LHP	Michael Dunn	Surprise	NYY
RHP	Reidier Gonzalez	Phoenix	TOR	RHP	Josh Fields	Javelinas	SEA
RHP	Matt Gorgen	Phoenix	TB	RHP	Javy Guerra	Javelinas	LAD
RHP	Andrew Johnston	Scottsdale	COL	RHP	Danny Gutierrez	Surprise	TEX
RHP	Tommy Mendoza	Mesa	LAA	RHP	Craig Kimbrel	Saguaros	ATL
LHP	Danny Moskos	Scottsdale	PIT	RHP	Mike Leake	Saguaros	CIN
RHP	Toru Murata	Scottsdale	N/A	LHP	Mike Minor	Saguaros	ATL
LHP	Blake Parker	Mesa	CHC	LHP	Andrew Oliver	Javelinas	DET
LHP	Matt Reynolds	Scottsdale	COL	RHP	Mark Rogers	Javelinas	MIL
LHP	Dustin Richardson	Mesa	BOS	RHP	Tanner Scheppers	Surprise	TEX
RHP	Drew Storen	Phoenix	WAS
RHP	Stephen Strasburg*	Phoenix	WAS

Friday Afternoon Quick Hits

Eli Greenspan — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 19:23:49 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

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The regular season is so exciting that I almost forget how exciting the offseason is!

The White Sox declined Jermaine Dye's 12 million dollar club option, as expected, paying him the 950,000 dollar buyout instead. Mark Teahen is expected to fill his spot. The highly respected veteran should not have trouble finding another gig.
Scott Merkin via Twitter is reporting that the White Sox likely won't bring back outfielder Scott Podsednik. He could emerge as an option on the other side of town with the Cubs.
The Royals declined options on reliever Yasuhiko Yabuta, Coco Crisp, and Miguel Olivo.
Cardinals GM Jon Mozeliak expects All-Star outfielder Matt Holliday to reach the open market, the St. Louis Post-Dispatch is reporting. Not really a surprise here, being a Boras client.
The Brewers are in the market for a starter, the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel is reporting. They have varying degrees of interest in Mark Mulder and John Lackey, which is a good sign for Brewers fans.

Offseason Day 1 Quick Hits

Eli Greenspan — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 16:06:44 -0000

More photos » by Jeff Roberson - AP

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Let's take a look at some of the headlines making their way around the wire on this Thursday morning:

It appears as if the Nationals will remove the interim tag on manager Jim Riggleman and name him their permanent manager. The Nationals did contact Don Mattingly about an interview, but he respectively declined. Riggleman is very experienced and did get more than expected from the Nationals after taking over, going 33-42 to close out the season.
The Kansas City Star is reporting that the Royals likely will decline Coco Crisp's option, but have interest in negotiating a low-base salary for the 2010 season. Crisp, who has surgery on both shoulders this past season, is no guarantee to come back as strong as he was in previous years.
Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch is reporting that the Cardinals and Scott Boras have discussed a the framework of a deal, reportedly in the neighborhood of 6 years, worth 96 million dollars. Seems like the first offer of many in what is expected to be a very long negotiating process. Boras has not been afraid to compare his client to Mark Teixeira, who signed an 8 year, 180 million dollar deal a year ago. I think more reasonable contracts to compare Holliday to are Vernon Wells' (7 year, 126) or Alfonso Soriano's (8 year, 134).
With Tim Wakefield's 4 million dollar option and Victor Martinez's 7 million dollar option, the Red Sox have to decided what to do with shortstop Alex Gonzalez's 6 million dollar option. Gonzalez hit .284 after joining the Red Sox, and was pretty sound defensively. The Red Sox could decline the option and hope to sign him at a reduced rate, similar to what the Giants did with Freddy Sanchez. They could always look to the Brewers and shortstop J.J. Hardy, who is also expected to draw interest from the Twins.