SB Nation - Tampa Bay Rays

For Kelly Shoppach's Bat Fastball:Good::Breaking Balls:Bad

Tommy Rancel — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 12:00:43 -0000

by Tony Dejak - AP

Kelly Shoppach's swing and miss issues are nothing new. The overall contact issues have been illustrated here, and also by RZ (formally of Rays Party) here. Specifically, I want to see is what pitches does he tend struggle with? With a K-rate of over 35% the answer, not surprisingly, is most of them.

Kelly Shoppach is a fastball hitter. There's no two ways about it. In 2009, he whiffed on around 10% of all fastballs thrown. This is by far the lowest of any pitch in which he received a fair amount of sample size. Career wise, his higest pitch value is far and away on the heater. With his power, any fastball over the plate and slightly elevated is likely to end up somewhere near the left field party deck.

Breaking balls? That's a different story.

Like many free-swinging, power hitters, Shoppach's kryptonite comes in the form of breaking balls. Sliders and Curveballs (especially low and away) give him fits. He made contact with air on 17.5% of curveballs in 2009, and came up empty on nearly a quarter (24.3%) of the sliders thrown in his general area. It's not surprising his lowest pitch values are also associated with these bendy pitches.

Nonetheless, breaking balls aren't the pitch missed most by Shoppach's bat. While seeing the pitch only 7.3% of the time in 2009, he missed the change-up over 31% of the time (28 of 90). The strange part is his wCH is his second highest pitch value, trailing the fastball. I'm assuming that while he is easily fooled by change-ups, if he guesses correctly, he's likely to hit it hard.

Despite the splits showing Shoppach's affinity for left-handed pitching, He is an equal opportunity hacker. He misses on slightly less fast balls and change ups against righties, but whiffs on more sliders and curves against lefties.

Nothing ground-breaking, but prepared for heavy doses of breaking pitches (again, mostly low and away) against Shoppach follwed by a bunch of empty offerings. However, if a pitcher leaves a fastball over the dish, or if a "get me over" change-up doesn't quite get over, it's likely to put Shoppach on-base or runs on the board.

New York Yankees to Sign Nick Johnson

R.J. Anderson — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 01:23:20 -0000

Looks to be a one-year, $5-6M deal. This is no good. Johnson figures to be the Yankees DH, which hurts his value some, but regardless, over the last three years he's posted wOBA of .373/.374/.405. If he does that over a (mostly) full season, he'll be a 20 run bat, which would be good for basically two wins. He's being paid for a little over one win. Of course you have to adjust for age, DH (remember, players hit worse as DH than while playing the field), and league, so he's probably a little under two wins when all is said and done, and there's a non-zero chance that Johnson misses a good chunk of the season because he tears something or steps on a 30-year-old landmine somewhere in a random jungle.

At the end of the day deals like this have to make you shake your head. C'mon Seattle, the other New York, and San Francisco. Help us out here.

Regarding the Jack Cust Interest

R.J. Anderson — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 22:29:46 -0000

More photos » by Chris Carlson - AP

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Jerry Crasnick reported this nugget earlier:

The Rays have expressed some interest in Cust, but probably can't make a move until they trade Pat Burrell.

You can sum this interest up in two points:

1) Due diligence.

2) Making the Cubs nervous.

Cust is defenseless, slow, and on the wrong side of 30 for someone with old player skills. For whatever reason, his power absolutely faded in 2009 and combined with an increase in price tag and a number of similar options, the A's felt Cust was no longer worthy of tendering arbitration. All told, he's not a horrible option at DH if the Rays have a non-Cubs taker for Burrell and simply dump the one year left on the contract. Cust is certainly going to make fewer dollars in 2010 and barring a collapse should be an above average hitter.

Tampa Bay Rays Name Stan Boroski Assistant Pitching Coach

R.J. Anderson — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 20:36:38 -0000

Presser:

Boroski, 46, joins the Rays from the Houston Astros, where he has served as either a coach or scout during the past 18 years including the last three seasons as pitching coach for the Corpus Christi Hooks (AA) in the Texas League.

"Stan brings a nice versatility to the position," said Hickey. "In addition to having been on the field as a pitching coach for the past 12 years, his scouting experience gives us another set of eyes from the stands. The fact that he was drafted as a position player also provides a unique perspective."

A native of Ohio, Boroski was the pitching coach for the Salem Avalanche (A), the Astros' affiliate in the Carolina League, from 2003-06. He served in the same capacity for Michigan (A) in the Midwest League for two seasons and had previously been a coach with the Astros' Gulf Coast League and Appalachian League affiliates. He served as a scout from 1991-93 and combined coaching and scouting duties at various other times during his career with the Astros.

Boroski was drafted by the Milwaukee Brewers as a catcher out of Buckeye South High School in Tiltonsville, Ohio, in 1981 and spent three seasons in the Brewers system. In 1985, he was signed as a pitcher by the Kansas City Royals and remained in that organization for four years. Boroski has a degree in biology from Ohio University and resides in St. Cloud, Fla., with his wife, Carol, and two children, Sarah and Clayton.

He replaces Brian Anderson, who will serve as color commentator on approximately 50 Rays games telecast on FSN Florida and Sun Sports in 2010.

Emphasis mine.

Where Jason's Place is Right Field in Fenway

R.J. Anderson — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 18:00:07 -0000

Looking at old editions of the Baseball America Handbook is pretty fun for the projected lineup feature alone. People love rosterbating with prospects and filling them into slots and while BA probably assumes people don't take these literally, I'm sure some do. They are what they are: a prospective lineup three years in the future if trades and free agency don't occur. That being said, here's a reason you should never try to project a lineup a year into the future, forget about two, three, or four. This is the 2010 projected lineup from the 2007 Handbook:

CA Dioner Navarro

1B Joel Guzman

2B Jorge Cantu

3B Evan Longoria

SS Reid Brignac

LF Carl Crawford

CF Rocco Baldelli

RF Delmon Young

DH B.J. Upton

SP Scott Kazmir

SP Jeff Nieman

SP Jacob McGee

SP Wade Davis

SP Matt Walker

CP Juan Salas

All told, eight of the fifteen are no longer in the organization and only five players project to actually be in the starting lineup or rotation on opening day 2010. I mean, yeah, nobody saw the trade of Delmon coming, or Kazmir being dealt, or Salas turning into Waldo, but that's the thing about rosters: they change, a lot. Don't forget that when you try to figure out how the Rays will sort out the rotational mess in 2012. For all we know, Matt Garza will be a Brewer by then.

Bonus fun:

The 2010 Red Sox starting right fielder was something named Jason Place

The 2010 Yankees starting first baseman? Eric Duncan, released a few weeks ago.

Note: I'm in no way mocking BA. Tasks like these are just impossible and ultimately pointless.

An Interview With Carson Cistulli

Erik Hahmann — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 12:30:04 -0000

Some may call it unusual. Others may call it unorthodox. I call Carson Cistulli's particular style of writing wild entertaining. You can find his work in a variety of places across the web, including FanGraphs, The Hardball Times, and Rotosynthesis . Today, you'll find him here answering a few questions in his own Cistullian way:

Erik: The obligatory leadoff question: What should the Rays do with Carl Crawford?

Carson Cistulli: You're killing me, Hahmann. You ask Rob Neyer and Dave Cameron this, and then me? You seem to have me confused with some sort of baseball analyst.

I will say this -- that whatever Friedmann and Co. do, I'll probably applaud it. Seriously. There's something entirely gratifying about smart people being in charge.

Oh, and the other thing I'll say is this -- that looking at his numbers right now, I'm kinda surprised at how good Crawford is. I think for a while the prevailing notion was that he was always a year away from a breakout. I became accustomed to thinking of him just as a really great fantasy player. (Which, he still is one. He finished 17th overall last year, per Baseball Monster.) But that's probably also before defensive metrics became more sophisticated. A win-and-a-half afield is significant, and that's what Crawford averages per 150 games.

E.H.: Although we've all grown tired of the story by this point, how do you think Milton Bradley would fit on this Rays team?

C.C.: Well, considering that the Rays are now in a position where they're non-tendering pretty talented players like Gabe Gross, I think it'd require something special to make the Bradley deal work. And the thing is, extracurriculars aside, Bradley just hasn't been that healthy. Last year represented only the third time ever that Bradley had reached even 124 GP. His next highest total after those three seasons is 101 GP. That's in 10 major league seasons. Sure, it's true: Guys can still provide value in limited PT. J.D. Drew, for example, has done just that for Boston -- at the same position. But Drew is an iron man relative to Bradley. And a better hitter. And fielder. Bradley would have to come cheap. Below $5MM/year, for sure. And he'd have to be fine with his role -- which, what would that be? DH, probably, if it's Burrell going Chicagoward. Maybe right field instead of the Joyce/Kapler platoon? Either way, it seems like a lot of hassle for what might constitute only a marginal improvement.

E.H.: The Rays recently traded for Kelly Shoppach and re-signed Dioner Navarro, which begs the question...What exactly are they going to do with Navarro?

C.C.: I assume they deploy him against tough right-handers. For his career, Navarro is .273/.336/.434 against righties, versus only .245/.302/.339 against lefties. Shoppach is .295/.386/.614 versus lefties and only .227/.307/.430 against righties. (Sample size warnings -- against lefties, in particular -- apply!) Plus, each represents a pretty good insurance policy in case of injury to the other.

WOAH! WOAH! WOAH! I read Navarro's split wrong. He's actually .245/.302/.339 versus righties, huh? Blurg. That's different. Let's see, if you regress that to league average for LHB v RHP (.268/.341/.430) -- using the 1000 PA weight that R.J. invoked just last week- you get something like .255/.315/370. Do the same for Shoppach versus righties (with 2200 PA, instead) and he comes out to like... .250/.315/.415. That's better, but not <i>way</i> better, I guess, considering that Navarro is four years younger and still on the right side of his peak.

Hmmm, why did the Rays re-sign Navarro again?

E.H.: On a scale of 1/11 how surprised were you by the signing of Rafael Soriano?

C.C.: Lowish. Around 3, maybe. I mean, I certainly wasn't predicting it, but I guess my reaction to the Soriano trade was a lot like my reaction to most of Tampa's personnel decisions: I start off by assuming it's a good move, and then I try and figure out how. Actually, strike that. What I do is, I assume it's a good move, and then I let Dave Cameron figure out how. (Or R.J. Anderson, obviously.) That's probably not the most intellectually responsible way of going about it, but it leaves more time for goofing off.

E.H.: Piggybacking on that last question, what do you expect to see out of Soriano this year?

C.C.: So long as he's healthy, a whole bunch of nasty, high-leverage pitching. The four seasons in which he's thrown at least 50 IP -- 2003, '06, '07, '09 -- he's posted excellent numbers (tRA*/xFIP): 2.58/2.63, 3.89/4.00, 3.61/3.80, 3.11/2.99. And it's good for the Rays that he's reached that milestone three of the last four years. The nice thing is, if he breaks down, it's only a year-long contract.

The real question, for me, is how this affects J.P. Howell. I've been the giantest Howell apologist for some time now. It seems like he could make a fantastic starter. From 2005 to 2007, Howell made 33 appearances (all starts) and posted xFIPs of 4.41, 4.08, and 4.12, respectively. His tRA*s (that is, regressed tRA, available at StatCorner) are less friendly over that time period (5.16, 5.21, and 5.24, respectively), so maybe I should just can it. Still, if he's down with it -- and I don't know, maybe he's not -- then I think it's worth a shot.

E.H.: It appears Desmond Jennings is ready to play at the big league level, and probably would be for most teams. The Rays, however, are deeper than most teams and don't have immediate room. Where do you see Jennings fitting in with the 2010 team?

C.C.:Ideally, from an organizational standpoint, not at all, right? I mean, certainly if this were my Hardball Dynasty team, I'd use up his options, leave him down there as long as I could, and get as much of his peak as possible at the lowest possible wage. Of course, if I'm Desmond Jennings, I'm thinking that plan is stupid. I'm thinking, gimme my money, you jerks. ZiPS has him at .264/.330/.371; CHONE is slightly more optimistic (.268/.339/.392). He probably adds 1 - 1.5 wins between his baserunning and defense, too. Hmm, that's pretty good. I think probably what you do is hope that Upton hits like a true Bossman Junior this season, and then you trade the frig out of him before he gets expensive. Then give center field to Jennings.

E.H.: The Rays are most likely not bringing back Carlos Pena in 2011. I know it's ridiculously early, but if you had to decide, who is the Rays starting first basemen in 2011? Willy Aybar? Ben Zobrist? Some undervalued free agent bargain?

C.C.:I think probably neither of those first two make a lot of sense. Aybar seems nice as a bench guy who, in the event of an injury to a corner, provides something better than replacement level (like with Shoppach/Navarro at catcher). For Zobrist, even if he's offensively adequate for first base, it seems like you're squandering his defensive abilities by putting him there. FanGraphs has him at 26.4 fielding runs above average in 2009. Now, it's unlikely that Zobrist reaches the same frenzied heights in 2010 (and beyond) as he did in 2009, but there's a chance he gets somewhere in the vicinity. The highest UZRs at first base -- with the exception of Pujols's bananas 18.8 in 2007 -- are routinely around 10 runs above average. I think maybe a win just evaporates if he moves to first.

E.H.: With the recent signing of Jason Kendall it appears the Royals are still as poorly run as ever. The Rays can surely call up Dayton Moore and get a Jason Bartlett for Billy Butler trade worked out, right?

C.C.: Remember how that Quebecois radio host fooled Sarah Palin into thinking he was Nicolas Sarkozy. Well, I have a question for you: How's your Andrew Friedman impression?

E.H.: You live in Portland. That is one of the cities rumored to be in the mix if the Rays ever leave town. That gives you motive. Promise me you're not going to sabotage any potential meetings for a new stadium in the Tampa/St. Pete area?

C.C.: I think this is the sort of thing that can only be settled by means of a ritual dance battle.

E.H.: You name the time and place, sir.

Again, a big thanks to Carson for joining us today.

Report: Rays Scout Kelvim Escobar In Venezuela

Tommy Rancel — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 20:37:45 -0000

While the Milton Bradley rumor game (pun non intended) continues to produce little or no new news, Kelvim Escobar's game is just starting...literally. What we know so far is the Rays like Escobar. In return, Escobar likes the Rays too, but there are other teams involved; according to reports out of Venezuela it could be eight or nine teams. We also know that the Rays were one of eight teams to watch Escobar in a simulated game today. The Mets, who are rumored to be among the more aggressive suitors, were not one of the eight teams listed by Efrain Zavarce.

It's a simulated game so results are of no consequence. If I'm translating Zavarce's tweet right, in the first inning of the simulated game, Escobar threw his slider, change up and fastball with the fastball being consistently between 92 and 94 mph. If that report is accurate then Escobar's velocity is exactly where it should be; his average fastball is 93.4 career. He is scheduled to pitch in a live game this weekend in which the Rays will also attend. What happens after that is anyone's guess.

Fantasy Baseball: Raygu's MDC Mock Draft Results

raygu — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 20:00:28 -0000

by Mark J. Terrill - AP

23 days ago: FILE - In this Oct. 8, 2009, file photo, St. Louis Cardinals' Albert Pujols hits a single during the sixth inning of Game 2 of the National League division baseball series against the Los Angeles Dodgers, in Los Angeles. Pujols was unanimously voted National League MVP on Tuesday, Nov. 24, 2009, becoming the baseball first player to repeat since Barry Bonds won four in a row from 2001-04. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill, File)

View full size photo »

I participated, I use that term loosely, in a 12 Team Mixed League mock draft over at Mock Draft Central on Monday night. I missed alot of my picks because I was busy following the Roy Halladay trade rumors. But I made sure I made my fist three picks, as I was picking from the first position.

Here is how the first two rounds went:

R1 P1 Albert Pujols

R1 P2 Hanley Ramirez

R1 P3 Chase Utley

R1 P4 Alex Rodriguez

R1 P5 Ryan Braun

R1 P6 Mark Teixeira

R1 P7 Tim Lincecum

R1 P8 Matt Kemp

R1 P9 Prince Fielder

R1 P10 Miguel Cabrera

R1 P11 Evan Longoria

R1 P12 David Wright

The second round is after the jump:

R2 P1 Ian Kinsler

R2 P2 Justin Morneau

R2 P3 Ryan Howard

R2 P4 Joe Mauer

R2 P5 Carl Crawford

R2 P6 Grady Sizemore

R2 P7 Jacoby Ellsbury

R2 P8 Mark Reynolds

R2 P9 Jason Bay

R2 P10 Troy Tulowitzki

R2 P11 Zack Greinke

R2 P12 Justin Upton

With the first pick in round 3 I selected Matt Holliday.

I was surprised Upton and Holliday were still available that late in round 2.

Poll

What is more shcoking about Raygu's mock draft?

Catch-22: What to do with Dioner Navarro?

FreeZorilla — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 19:00:22 -0000

More photos » by Reinhold Matay - AP

Does Navi fit into the current roster construction of the Rays?

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In 2009, the catcher slot represented a hole in the Rays line up more glaring than the sun. Unlikely 2008 All-Star Dioner Navarro took a rather nasty statistical nose dive, leaving the Front Office little choice but to use their Z-game in acquiring 38 year-old Gregg Zaun for minor league first-baseman Rhyne Hughes. Zaun provided exactly what R.J. expected when he called for the Rays to look into Zaunover a month before the trade occurred. Zaun and Navi afforded the Rays a pair of complementary switch-hitters. Zaun fares slightly better versus right-handed pitching while Navi has a much wider gap between his splits in favor of facing southpaws.

Catchers who can hit lefties are a-dime-a-dozen as all catchers field right-handed. One of the main reason catchers are routinely criticized as poor hitters is because in 2009 70.5% of American League plate appearances came against right-handed pitching. This places left-handed hitting or good switch-hitting catchers at a premium as they have favorable platoon splits far more often than their right-handed counterparts.

Heading into the off-season, many expected the Rays to try to keep Zaun aroundfor a year while replacing Navarro. The thinking was that both catchers would cost $2-3 million and perhaps a cheaper alternative could be found for Navarro since Zaun has a more favorable match-up 29.5% of the time. Two potential roadblocks to this plan were Zaun's increasing age, and a compensatory 2nd round pick awarded to the Rays if another team was to sign Zaun due to his Type B free agent status.

As often is the case, the Rays Front Office strikes hard, silently and when least expected. With all eyes patiently looking ahead to the Winter Meetings, Andrew Friedman sensed opportunity. The rebuilding Cleveland Indians had a surplus of catchers. The right-handed Kelly Shoppach made $1,950,000 andwas due for a raise in arbitration. Behind Shoppach were 3 young catchers, prospects Lou Marson and Carlos Santana along with Wyatt Toregas. Shoppach would be too expensive for the Indians by the time they were to be competitive again, so he was a prime candidate to be non-tendered. Friedman sensed this and agreed to move a Player to Be Named Later for Shoppach. We now know through MLB.com that the player will either be AAA pitcher Mitch Talbot who is out of options or Joe Cruz who pitched in A- ball last year. Talbot, if healthy, should be able to handily crack the Cleveland rotation, whereas the Rays would probably been forced to pawn him off in a fire sale in Spring Training. It was a win-win as neither team had much leverage and succeeded in addressing a weakness from a position of excess strength.

Shoppach is a powerful right-hander who strikes out a lot but has decent on base-skills. His career splits trend much like Navi's, highly successful vs. LHP with a big drop-off vs. righties. However, Shoppach fares better than Navarro from both sides of the plate. Their career platoon splits can be found below:

	vs RHP		vs LHP
	OBP	SLG	OBP	SLG
Navi	0.302	0.339	0.336	0.434
Shoppach	0.308	0.396	0.386	0.614

We often discuss how the catching spot is one of a natural platoon. Teams are forced to take up two roster spots, so why not try to make some chemistry magic by playing off their strengths? The thought of signing Gregg Zaun began to look more attractive. Shoppach was adequate enough against RHP to reduce Zaun's workload. He could handle the 50 or so starts vs LHP and take on an additional 50-60 starts against RHP, while the elder Zaun would provide excellent ball-blocking skills and steady offense in the remaining 50-60 games vs. RHP. This option went out the door when the Brewers signed Zaun for $2.1 million giving the Rays the extra pick in next year's draft.

At this point it was widely assumed Navarro was a dead man walking in Tampa Bay. I penned a column looking at cheap in-house and external replacements in the minors who had wide splits in favor of facing RHP. We watched the days go by at the Winter Meetings waiting for a Navarro trade for the best available compensation. As the Saturday night deadline approached, there was a growing sense that Navarro would be non-tendered if he could not be moved. In 2009, Dioner Navarro andthe Rays had a bloody arbitration battle over a mere $400,000 with the Rays emerging victorious. Those are the types of battles that needlessly occur when you are represented by an agent who would tweet the following:

@kendallalmerico Here’s a shocker. Navarro starts, Rays win again. Talk stats all you want, but team chemistry = wins. And wins are what matters.

@kendallalmerico Rays now 5-7 with Zaunstarting, 5-2 with Navi behind the plate. I guess Joe Maddon wants October off this year.

@kendallalmericoSince acquiring 143 year old Geoff Zaun…Rays 5-6 with Zaunstarting at catcher, 4-2 with Navi starting. Hmmmm…let’s do the math

Andrew Friedman moves against the grain. Navarro had little to no leverage in negotiations given his gnatty agent, his putrid 2009, and the fact that teams had been filling voids at catcher all week. He accepted a one-year deal at the same salary as the previous season, $2.1 million. Why would Friedman do this given the apparent lack of synergies between Shoppach and Navi?

There are a few schools of thought. Conventional wisdom dictates the team needs an "experienced" backstop on the pine in the event of injury. Navarro is already familiar with the pitching staff and certainly that carries some value. While Navarro is almost certainly not as good as his 2008 slash line of .295/.349/.407, he is also not as bad as 2009's .218/.261/.222. For a reference point his career line is .253/.312/.367. An avenue of thought is that Navarro will rebound, thereby increasing his value and becoming an attractively priced trade target down the road.

Given Shoppach and Navi's career splits and assuming Shoppach catches about 120 games, how is the playing time best broken up using their career splits? Let's assume there are 120 games vs RHP and 40 vs LHP.

Method A= Shoppach faces all RHP and Navarro faces all LHP

Method B= Shoppach faces 80 RHP and 40 LHP, Navi gaces 40 RHP

	OBP	SLG	OPS
Method A	0.315	0.406	0.721
Method B	0.326	0.436	0.762

It seems as though overall team performance is best utilized when Navarro plays exclusively vs. RHP. Given Navi's deep career splits, I question whether this will allow him to raise his value at all. It would be akin to platooning Gabe Gross with a better hitting lefty who also struggled vs LHP. Gross would have to face lefties nearly all the time to maximize team value and his individual offensive numbers would be awful. If you don't do it in right field, why pay $2.1 million to do it at catcher?

I took a look at all catchers who had 150 PA in 2009 and looked at their career splits. I then broke the list into two, those with over 1000 career PA, and those with less. I also included each player's 2009 salary and his 2009 Defensive Runs Above Average as put together by devilfingers on drivelinemechanics.com:

Catchers > 1000 Career PA

Name	TotalPA	RHPOPS	LHPOPS	DefRAA	09 salary
Joe Mauer	2994	0.948	0.781	4.3	$10,500,000
Brian McCann	2372	0.892	0.761	-3	$3,666,667
Jorge Posada	6312	0.852	0.877	-5.9	$13,100,000
Victor Martinez	3686	0.847	0.816	-0.6	$5,900,000
Mike Napoli	1294	0.832	0.909	-9.7	$2,000,000
Ivan Rodriguez	9712	0.794	0.846	0.5	$1,500,000
Geovany Soto	1039	0.794	0.841	0.7	$575,000
Ryan Doumit	1483	0.786	0.758	-2	$2,150,000
A.J. Pierzynski	4704	0.781	0.661	-4.8	$6,250,000
Chris Iannetta	1084	0.767	0.930	2	$415,000
Jason Varitek	5464	0.759	0.828	-4.1	$5,000,000
David Ross	1458	0.754	0.769	7	$1,400,000
Kurt Suzuki	1450	0.744	0.778	0.9	$410,000
Jason Kendall	8212	0.744	0.682	-4.5	$5,000,000
Russell Martin	2326	0.743	0.880	-3.3	$3,900,000
Gregg Zaun	3925	0.733	0.730	-0.2	$1,500,000
Ramon Hernandez	4770	0.729	0.780	3.3	$8,500,000
Kenji Johjima	1722	0.725	0.710	8.8	$8,000,000
Brian Schneider	3186	0.716	0.620	3.5	$4,900,000
Carlos Ruiz	1259	0.712	0.728	5.4	$475,000
Ramon Castro	1400	0.707	0.773	-1.6	$2,625,000
Kelly Shoppach	1043	0.704	1.000	-1.5	$1,950,000
Josh Bard	1769	0.695	0.771	-7.3	$600,000
Bengie Molina	4743	0.691	0.813	-3.4	$6,000,000
Chris Snyder	1682	0.689	0.822	-3	$3,000,000
John Buck	2116	0.687	0.749	-4.8	$2,900,000
Rod Barajas	2746	0.684	0.714	4.2	$2,500,000
Yorvit Torrealba	1987	0.680	0.777	-2.9	$3,750,000
Yadier Molina	2458	0.672	0.741	6.6	$3,312,500
Ronny Paulino	1376	0.652	0.877	2.5	$440,000
Miguel Olivo	2631	0.651	0.824	-8.8	$2,700,000
Dioner Navarro	1822	0.641	0.770	0.4	$2,100,000
Gerald Laird	1826	0.633	0.776	13.3	$2,800,000
Henry Blanco	2614	0.626	0.739	5.7	$750,000
Jose Molina	1587	0.571	0.690	-1.1	$2,150,000

Of the 35 catchers with >1000 career plate appearances, Navi has the 4th worst OPS vs RHP. You'll note 2 of the 3 names below him are worth a win and 1.3 wins more defensively. Navi has little value vs. RHP and is about average defensively. If the Rays are to settle for a below average hitter, a defensive stud would seem to make more sense, especially since most of the marketplace discounts defense at the catcher spot.

For the catchers with less than 1000 PAs, we have to take their splits with a larger grain of salt, though RHP is the more reliable number. Park-Adjusted AAA OPS vs RHPis included for reference point for the minor league alternatives in my previous article, with a minimum 150 PA required in a AAA season.

Catches < 1000 Career PA

Name	TotalPA	RHPOPS	paAAA	LHPOPS	DefRAA
Landon Powell	155	0.829	0.735	0.458	2.4
John Baker	656	0.815	0.820	0.630	-3.2
Matt Wieters	385	0.804	1.017	0.695	2.5
Miguel Montero	938	0.773	1.020	0.792	-6.5
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	869	0.768	N/A	0.588	-0.3
Taylor Teagarden	271	0.721	0.770	0.841	2.4
Nick Hundley	505	0.719	0.824	0.593	-6.8
Chris Coste	885	0.713	0.494	0.821	-0.2
Ryan Hanigan	402	0.712	0.794	0.680	7
Jason Jaramillo	224	0.701	0.795	0.511	0.1
Omir Santos	316	0.700	0.625	0.616	2.4
Rob Johnson	325	0.636	0.878	0.490	-1.8
Brayan Pena	314	0.595	0.742	0.648	-2.9
Koyie Hill	543	0.580	0.812	0.627	6.1
Raul Chavez	725	0.576	0.563	0.555	4.4
Jeff Mathis	861	0.573	0.587	0.663	-2.1
Wil Nieves	597	0.569	0.629	0.589	-0.3
Humberto Quintero	589	0.555	0.942	0.732	1.7

There is no guarantee AAA success vs RHP will translate to the major leagues. We don't know that a John Jaso or Jose Lobaton will be able to provide a Navarro-level of success against RHP. However with two birds in the bush, the chance of one of them landing in the hand is a bit better.

Navi would almost be better suited to scrap the switch-hitting and work solely from the right side of the plate. Barring an unexpected offensive breakthrough, Navarro will be best utilized as a career backup to a catcher who hits well against RHP. Navarro can play predominantly against lefties and make fairly valuable contributions. For a team with that makeup, $2.1 million is a pretty attractive price in this marketplace. If Navarro had been traded prior to reaching the deal, the acquiring team would almost certainly be paying closer to the $3-3.5 million being earned by the likes of John Buck, Pudge, and Jason Kendall. As a counterpart to Shoppach, the return falls short even with the discounted contract. My hope is that Friedman can find the right place for Navi to succeed andreceive something back of greater value back than he would have received witht he contract uncertainty associated with the arbitration process.

A Site Announcement

R.J. Anderson — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 17:00:21 -0000

When Tommy first took over the site, one of his goals was to land one million visits during the 2009 year. Lofty, for sure, considering throughout its first four years barely one million visits had been achieved. I was skeptical, but we pushed towards it and to make a boring story short, we're sitting on the cusp of a million hits. As in, sometime between now and next week we'll hit seven figures.

By no means are we the biggest draws on the network. I don't think it's realistic to expect, given that our fan base, while growing continuously, is barely a decade old and the team has a limited history. That's not sour, I think everyone should grasp onto the idea of being part of the history of this team. But it is what it is.

Rob Neyer, Repoz, Jonah Keri, to the Rays organization, to people who just check out the site everyday for whatever masochistic reasons ... thanks.