SB Nation - Toronto Blue Jays

A Cold Week in Canada

doron — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 17:43:22 -0000

1 day ago: New Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Roy Halladay speaks to members of the media during a baseball news conference in Philadelphia, on Wednesday, Dec. 16, 2009. Halladay was traded to the Phillies on Wednesday in part of a four-team trade that sent Cliff Lee to the Seattle Mariners. (AP Photo/Matt Rourke)

Browse more photos »

As a Toronto Blue Jays fan all my life, this was a pretty challenging week.

North of the border, we knew it was coming. We’d heard about it daily since July and had seen the stories hit fever pitch a bunch of times – the trade deadline and the Winter Meetings not surprisingly being the biggest culprits. It got curiously quiet last weekend and into the start of the week.

Then, Monday afternoon, headlines broke that Roy Halladay was in Philadelphia. It took a few seconds to gather thoughts before the pieces fit together like a pile of bricks coming down on your already heavy chest. Roy Halladay had been traded to the Philadelphia Phillies. A frenzied night of rumors followed until we finally learned exactly which pieces were going where, but none of that was the real story for Jays fans.

For years, Halladay had been the comforting, reliable ace at the front of the rotation. He was dominant. For us, he threw fastballs with more movement than most curveballs. He put in incomparable effort and dedication to his craft. He gave baseball fans in hockey-dominated Canada a reason to be proud.

Until now, Halladay had been criminally under-recognized in the baseball world. It’s an absolute shame that he’s played in the MLB for 12-years without reaching the playoffs or even being nationally broadcasted in the US on any “Fox Game of the Week” or “ESPN Sunday Night Baseball” broadcast.

That’s where it gets easier to bare for Blue Jays fans.

You can ask any baseball fan in Toronto to tell you who won the big four-way trade that went down this week, and they’ll answer that the Phillies did. Our secret weapon won’t be a secret any longer. Everyone that has seen him work his magic on the mound knows what Roy Halladay is capable of doing. The Phillies may have given up Cliff Lee and a number of great prospects in the deal, but if they have any concerns, I can tell you this with complete honesty: You have no idea the type of talent your team just acquired.

I can go on and on about the emotional side of the Roy Halladay trade, but I’ll throw out a few numbers too. On his way to a 2.79 ERAs in 2009, he made 15 of his 32 starts against the Rays, Yankees and Red Sox – who comprised three of top four teams in wOBA and three of the top five in OPS. Imagine replacing a third of those with starts against the Washington Nationals.

In 2008, C.C. Sabathia essentially destroyed the National League for half a season. In 17 starts, he went 11-2, with 7 complete games, 3 shutouts, a 1.65 ERA and a WHIP barely over 1.00. Not to start a debate over it, but by most metrics, Roy Halladay was better in 2009 that C.C. Sabathia was. Now he gets his turn in the NL, and he gets it for at least four years.

As tough as the last week was for Jays fans, it won’t get much easier any time soon. Opening Day 2010 will be started by someone who isn’t Roy Halladay. When the team gets swept and the back of the rotation gets blown out on consecutive days, Roy Halladay won’t be there the next day to spare the bullpen and give every fan something to be happy about again.

Maybe one day Kyle Drabek will fill a similar role. Maybe Brett Wallace and Travis D’Arnaud will be key parts of an offense able to fight back in those rough stretches.

But at least for the next couple of years, Blue Jays fans will still have an escape when the going gets tough in Toronto. Roy Halladay will be carving out his legacy in the American spotlight, marching towards the playoffs, and fighting to win a World Series.

Philadelphia, I hope you don’t mind when a bunch of Canadians are cheering along with you next October. It will be a victory for us as much as it will be for you.

So Far We Are: Meet Your New Jays, Kyle Drabek

hugo — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 12:47:49 -0000

More photos » by Chuck Burton - AP

2 days ago: FILE - In this Feb. 28, 2007, file photo, Philadelphia Phillies' Kyle Drabek ptiches against Florida State during a spring training baseball game in Clearwater, Fla. Drabek was traded to the Toronto Blue Jays on Wednesday, Dec. 16, 2009, part of a four-team trade that sent Roy Halliday to the Phillies and Cliff Lee to the Seattle Mariners. (AP Photo/Chuck Burton, File)

Browse more photos »

The lone pitcher acquired in the Roy Halladay trade bonanza was Kyle Drabek, and he seems to have a keen sense of that already. Drabek, son of major league pitcher and former Cy Young winner Doug Drabek, was born on December 8, 1987 in Victoria, Texas. He grew up and attended high school in Texas as well, and has admitted he's not so much a disciple of Halladay as he is of fellow Texan fireballer Josh Beckett.

Drabek was drafted out of high school by the Philadelphia Phillies in the first round of the 2006 amateur player draft, the 18th overall pick in that draft. I think it's fair to say that Kyle would have gone much higher in the draft had there not been concerns about his "makeup" - specifically, events including a single-car collision in which Drabek was involved, a public intoxication charge that was later dropped, and more-than-occasional flare-ups of a fiery temper on and off the field. I'm not one to make excuses, but none of this sounds all that terrible for a 17-year old kid, particularly if such incidents are in the past, which it appears as though they are - I can't recall any such stories in the past few years - indeed, all the stories are about how far Drabek has come, on and off the mound.

Drabek was drafted for his lively fastball and his big curveball, two pitches which put him squarely in the "power pitcher" category. He didn't pitch for very long in the minors, though, before blowing out his elbow and requiring Tommy John surgery. The Phillies were concerned about how Drabek might respond and hooked him up with a career minor leaguer, Mike Zagurski, as a roomate, and the two developed a good friendship. Maybe it worked, or maybe their concerns were misplaced, because Drabek has really come along way since that surgery - altering his mechanics and working on his change-up, a crucial third pitch that Drabek admits still needs more work. Having a major-league quality change will be crucial to making Drabek's fastball as effective as it can be.

Drabek only made 8 starts in 2008, but did well in his first taste of A ball. 2009, though, was a very big year for Kyle. He pitched at advanced A and AA, making 15 starts at AA, showing why he was so well regarded coming out of the draft, and not seeming to show any lingering effects from his ligament replacement. Overall, Drabek put up a 3.19 ERA over 158 innings, actually a bit of an alarming increase from 2008 - but nice that his arm strength is at that level. He struck out 150 and walked 50 over that span, putting up very impressive K and walk rates - the walk rate is especially impressive for a young power pitcher. Drabek's MO on the mound is pretty simple - attack the zone with a first-pitch strike, typically with his fastball. When he's ahead of the hitter, he uses the curve to put them away.

It's actually quite impressive that Drabek, who is only 22, has progressed so far and so well in the minors even though he lost almost an entire season to TJ surgery. You don't do that unless you are both very talented and very dedicated. And if he can control his emotions on the mound, his power pitcher arsenal and fiery competitiveness, which the Jays love, scream front of the rotation.

Looking ahead, Drabek will begin the season in AA, and treat the fine people of the Granite State to his pitching. I don't think it's totally impossible that he could pitch in the majors this season, but it's much more likely to be next season. He stil needs work on his changeup and there's no reason to rush him. The young righty seems to have a bright career ahead of him and, while of course I'm sad to see Doc go, I'm glad it will be with the Blue Jays.

Today's title from a great song by the French Kicks.

Baseball Prospectus View of the Trade

Tom Dakers — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 16:41:11 -0000

More photos » by FRANK GUNN - AP

Toronto Blue Jays general manager Alex Anthopoulos makes his first big trade(AP Photo/The Canadian Press, Frank Gunn )

Browse more photos »

Baseball Prospectus has their opinion of the big trade up on their site. A couple of bits I thought I'd steal:

As good as the Mariners did, though, the big winners here were the Blue Jays. Behind the eight-ball with a pitcher they could not sign and could not trade without his permission, which likely meant a value-killing contract commitment, they were able to bring in three prospects who could all be part of winning teams in the middle of the decade. What Alex Anthopolous brought back dwarfs what the Twins got for Santana two years ago. It’s too easy to say that Drabek could grow into a Halladay replacement, but he has that kind of ability. Remember that the Blue Jays have shown a facility for turning lesser pitchers into league-average starters. Drabek has more talent than any pitcher in their system. D’Arnaud is a polished hitter with a strong enough arm to remain behind the plate, and while he doesn’t have the star potential Drabek has, he projects as an inexpensive, good player at a key position.

No pressure there on the poor kid. Could be a Halladay replacement. But I agree that Anthopoulos got far more that the Twins got for Sanatana. And under a bigger microscope.

Anthoplolous traded the third prospect, Taylor, to the A’s for Brett Wallace. This is an interesting challenge trade, dealing the more complete player for the player with one dominant skill. The Jays’ advantage in acquiring Wallace is that they will be able to develop him as a first baseman if need be, as they have only Lyle Overbay in his way, and that only for a year. Wallace isn’t as bad a third baseman as he looks to be on first glance, lacking lateral range but having acceptable hands and moving fairly well back and forth. An eventual move off of third has long been assumed inevitable, and if that is necessary, the Jays can fade that. Wallace joins Travis Snider and Adam Lind for what could end up as a championship-caliber middle of the lineup. For the A’s part, they get the player with the broader skill set who may fit their situation a bit better; the A’s need outfielders who can cover ground, and Taylor is a good right fielder who could make their team out of spring training.

This is the real interesting part of the trade to me. Michael Taylor is a good prospect and I was pretty happy when we thought the Jays were going to get. He would fill in the gaping hole in RF and if he didn't turn out to be great, Alex could have just said 'well we all thought he would be good'. But trading him like this shows guts. For the rest of each of their careers we'll be comparing the two of them. If Wallace turns into the better player, Alex is a genus. If Taylor turns out to be the better player, he'll never hear the end of it.

You do have to like that he has the guts to do it. Right or wrong a GM has to make the moves he believes in. If he thinks Wallace will be the better player, he can't be afraid of the reaction if he is wrong. If you worry about what happens if you are wrong, you won't do anything.

I hope it works out but more than that, I'm happy Alex has shown the guts needed to be a GM.

Thursday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 15:09:33 -0000

More photos » by David J. Phillip - AP

LaTroy Hawkins and Glenn Robinson faced each other in high school. This is the kind of thing that passes for news in December.

Browse more photos »

Some things to read while trying not to dance.

LaTroy Hawkins was in Milwaukee yesterday for his physical, making his deal official (FanShot). As mentioned previously, he's due $3.5 million in 2010 and $4 million in 2011, plus $550k available if he maximizes his incentives. One thing I didn't know until reading it afterwards: Hawkins grew up in Gary, Indiana and played basketball against former Buck Glenn Robinson.

I've mentioned previously that the bullpen situation is starting to fill up, but realized yesterday that I've been leaving Carlos Villanueva out of all of my projections. As Adam McCalvy noted in his story on Hawkins, the bullpen now has Trevor Hoffman, Hawkins, Todd Coffey, Mitch Stetter, Claudio Vargas, Carlos Villanueva and David Riske, and barring a trade or injury, it looks like Chris Smith, Chris Narveson, Chuck Lofgren and Zack Braddock, among others, are on the outside looking in.

While there may not be much competition for a spot in the bullpen, there will be an interesting race to see who opens the season as the backup catcher. View From Bernie's Chalet handicaps the candidates, and is hoping for George Kottoras to open the season in the majors, with Jonathan Lucroy in AAA and Angel Salome on the trading block. Two quick thoughts on that:

Kottoras is out of options, so unless one of the prospects blows him out of the water this spring, he'll likely make the team.
You can never have too many catchers, so don't be surprised if the Brewers hang onto both Lucroy and Salome and try to work out some kind of rotation in Nashville.

Speaking of competitions involving backup catchers, we need your vote to help select a backup catcher for the BCB All Decade Team. As of this writing, Mike Rivera leads Jason Kendall by 15 votes.

At Mike Cameron's press conference in Boston yesterday, we heard some insight for the first time into Ken Macha's feeling toward the running game last season. 2009 was the first time in Cameron's career he's had single-digit stolen bases, and he said he "ran into a little situation where I had to abide by the rules of the manager, even though I’ve been pretty successful, I mean, 80 percent of the time that I’ve ran." Macha has admitted he'll have to open up the running game a little more this season, but this is the first time I can recall hearing a player talk about restraints last season.

Every now and then the Mug provides me an "Ask and you shall receive" moment. Yesterday I asked about differences in attendance at Miller Park based on the starting pitcher, and Wisconsin Sports Tap did the research, discovering no correlation. Many, if not most, Brewer tickets are probably purchased too far in advance to predict starting pitching assignments, so that's likely what I should have expected.

In the minors: FanGraphs unveiled their Top Ten Brewer Prospects yesterday. Alcides Escobar sits atop the list, as he likely will in just about every set of rankings coming out this winter, but Brett Lawrie climbed in front of Mat Gamel for the #2 spot. We'll be doing our Community Prospect Rankings in January, and I'm curious to see where Lawrie will rank there.

Around baseball:

D-Backs: Signed pitcher Rodrigo Lopez to a minor league deal.
Dodgers: Signed infielder Jamey Carroll to a two year deal worth $3.85 million and signed reliever Luis Ayala to a minor league deal.
Orioles: Signed reliever Mike Gonzalez to a two year deal worth $12 million, and third baseman Garrett Atkins to a one year deal.
Rangers: Signed pitcher Geoff Geary and infielder Ray Olmedo to minor league deals.
Tigers: Re-signed infielder Ramon Santiago to a two year deal.

The Blue Jays, Phillies, Mariners and A's also finalized their four way deal involving Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee. It's been a time for change in Toronto over the last few months: Jordan Bastian noted that the Rogers Centre features three-story images of Alex Rios, Scott Rolen, B.J. Ryan and Roy Halladay. All four will now need to be removed.

In the interest of keeping conversation going and providing fresh content on the site each day, I occasionally post things that wouldn't be front page-worthy during the season, but keep things lively in December. Occasionally when I do that, someone stops by the comments to make sure I know I'm wasting their time, or ask why we're voting for bench players on the All Decade Team. Yes, I know those posts aren't hard-hitting news, but they beat spending a day ranking and discussing your favorite Pixar movies, like Keith Law and Rob Neyer did yesterday.

Earlier this week he celebrated a birthday, and today former Brewer Matt Kinney is the subject of Lookout Landing's Faces series.

Happy birthday today to 1986 and 1989 Brewer Bryan Clutterbuck, who turns 50.

Drink up.

Goodbye Doc

Tom Dakers — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 21:39:24 -0000

More photos » by Darren Calabrese - AP

(AP Photo/The Canadian Press, Darren Calabrese, File)

Browse more photos »

Since just before the All-Star break, when the cat was let out of he bag that Roy Halladay was going to be traded I figured sooner or later I'd be writing a post saying good bye to Doc. For the last couple of days we've been focusing on what we are getting back for Roy, which is a lot more fun than thinking about him going away. But, sooner or later we are going to have to say bye. Just recently I wrote a long piece about Halladay's career with the Jays, in the Top 50 Jays series, so we don't have to cover that ground again.

When I was a kid and first got interested in baseball, my favorite team was the Montreal Expos and my favorite player was Gary Carter. Carter, for a number of seasons was the best catcher in baseball. One of the first things I remember buying for myself when I had a little money was a Expos jersey with the number 8 on it, Carter's number.

My Expos were a pretty good team back then but generally came up just short of making the post season. The one year they did make it was 1981, the strike season. We lost out to the Dodger's on a Rick Monday home run. That is the closest they ever came to the World Series. As is often the case, the team blamed their best player for not winning instead of looking a the black hole that was our middle infield.

The came December 10, 1984, Carter was traded to the Mets for, well, for a bunch of guys whose names I don't remember. Now back then this was an unusual type of trade. Star players didn't make so much money that teams couldn't afford them so players were traded more on playing value. Good players stayed with their teams, often for their whole career.

Anyway skip ahead a bunch of years (far more years than I care to think about) and I have a new favorite team and new favorite player. A couple of years ago I got a new team jersey with his name and number. Again he's best player in baseball at his position.

If baseball teaches us fans anything, it teaches us how to deal with disappointment and to enjoy the little things. When you don't have a winning team, it great to have things to point to that you enjoy. Us Jay fans have been lucky enough to get to watch Doc. But it also teaches us that all things come to an end.

What people forget is that Doc wasn't always an ace. He came up at the end of the 1998 season, made two starts, one that was a one hitter, the hit coming with 2 out in the ninth. The next year he spent the season with us bouncing back and forth between the rotation and the bullpen. Then in 2000 he was terrible. Terrible doesn't even describe it, he had a 10.67. ERA. Can you imagine a young pitcher on the Jays now having an ERA like that now. Scott Richmond has a couple of poor months and folks write him off. Brandon League has a handful of bad innings and people call for his head. How many times have we read that Brett Cecil will never be more than a number 3 pitcher at best.

Maybe that's one of the reasons why I like Halladay so much. It didn't just come easy for him. He had to re-work his whole delivery. He works at his craft. Very hard. The past couple of seasons he reinvented himself again, changing from having a low strikeout rate (5.6 per 9 in 2007) to becoming a guy that got a good number of strikeouts (7.8 per 9 in 2009).

As he leaves the Jays he is 2nd in Jay history in Wins (148), 3rd in Games Started (287), 3rd in Innnings (2047.2), 3rd in Complete Games (49) and 2nd in Strikeouts (1495).

I always kind of figured that one day we'd see that no-hitter from Doc. And that we'd get another Cy Young award. The great thing about watching him was that you had the chance to see something special every time out. We'll miss that.

Favorite Doc moments? Maybe beating A.J. Burnett last season. You could pick any of the 18 times he beat the Yankees, he's 18-6 career against them, the team he's beat the second most behind the Orioles (20-4). Or seeing tape of him taking to the young kids that received the pitching lesson. Or seeing him talk to one of the younger starters on the bench.

I guess my favorite moments were the rare moments he would smile. Generally at the end of a game. He is always so focused and serious on the mound, the odd moments he looked like he was enjoying himself stand out.

He is likely the guy I have written about the most over the past year and a half (well him or Kevin Millar). It will be strange not talking about him any more.

Good luck, Roy. It has been a pleasure being able to watch you.

Anyway, share your favorite memories in the comments area.

Jays Sign Two More

Tom Dakers — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 16:44:18 -0000

The Jays announced a pair of signings this morning, one we knew about, John Buck and one we didn't, pitcher Lance Broadway. The press release is after the Jump

The TORONTO BLUE JAYS have signed C JOHN BUCK to a one year contract worth 2.0 million dollars for the 2010 season and have signed RHP LANCE BROADWAY to a minor league contract with an invite to spring training.

BUCK, 29, posted a .247 average with eight home runs and 36 RBI in 59 games with the Kansas City Royals. The Kemmerer, Wyoming native has spent his entire six-year career in Kansas City, posting a .235 average with 70 home runs and 259 RBI. The 6'3" 220 lb. right-handed hitting catcher recorded a career high 18 home runs in 2007.

BROADWAY, 26, spent the 2009 season between the Chicago White Sox and New York Mets organization. In 19 minor league games (17 starts) between Charlotte (AAA) and Buffalo (AAA), the Dallas, Texas native posted a record of 5-9 with a 6.17 ERA. In 16 major league appearances, last season, between the Chicago White Sox and New York Mets, owned a record of 0-1 with a 5.87 ERA.

Me back: Broadway was a first round draft pick in 2005. Guys like that are worth taking a flier on. He hasn't done much yet in the majors, he's not shown a lot of control yet but maybe the Jays pitching coaches can help him along.

The NL Central Offseason Revue Pt. 2: The Red Menace

the red baron — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 16:35:23 -0000

Um, I think Jocketty is the one on the left.

View full size photo »

I decided I'm going to try and do these in order from best to worst in the division; unfortunately, that now means I have to try and come up with preseason predictions before the offseason is even half over. Not a great idea on my part, really; I should have done them in alphabetical order or something. Oh, well. Too late for such considerations now, I suppose.

Of all the teams in the Central, perhaps none is so enigmatic as the Cincinnati Reds. Every spring for god knows how many years now we've heard the constant refrain, "Look out for the Reds this year. This is the year they finally turn that corner." Now, to be fair, we hear much the same thing about the Pirates, but predictions of Pittsburgh's rise are always couched not in terms of contention, but in terms of near-winning baseball. Thus, even as the predictions are made, our natural inclination toward Piratic indifference kicks in. The Reds, on the other hand, are a different story.

See, the thing about the Reds is this: they have some really, really good players. Players I would love to have on my team. They stole Brandon Phillips from their in-state rivals just a couple offseasons back, right from under the Cards' noses, even as Junior Spivey was busily reminding us not all reclamation projects end up reclaiming anything. Sometimes the ship stays sunk. (By the by, I'm proud to say I was one of the people hoping and advocating for the Cards to bring in Phillips. Sadly, our voices were not heard.) The Reds have some outstanding young arms. Their closer is one of the better ones in the business. (Still not worth his contract, but that's another issue entirely.) The right fielder is the guy the Cardinals really wanted in 2005; they chose Colby Rasmus specifically because he was the most similar player to Jay Bruce in the draft. There is some real talent here.

Yet somehow, year after year, those cries which warn us of the approaching Cincinnati domination always turn out to be wrong. Every year the Reds find some way not to win. It's gotten to the point I almost fear the offseason when no one cautions against the Reds; perhaps the spell will then be broken and this long-benighted franchise will step fully into the light. Or, perhaps not.

Either way, a little insurance can't possibly be a bad thing.

This is the year, folks. Watch out for the Reds.

Cincinnati Reds 2009 Record: 78-84, 13 games out of first

Pythagorean Record: 76-86 (673 runs scored, 723 allowed)

It was another disappointing year for the Reds, who came into the 2009 season with one of the most promising teams Cincinnati has seen in years. There was tons of optimism, and rightfully so; the Reds' rotation was immensely talented and young, just beginning to come into its own. Unfortunately, the struggles of youth and the injury bugbear combined to rob the Reds of their pitching bite, and the offense simply wasn't good enough to compensate.

Offense: After years of watching the Dunn/Griffey led Reds mash their way through the division while failing to hold anyone to less than seven runs per game, the 2009 Reds were a positively anemic change of pace. The Cardinals were not a particularly prolific offensive team, but the Reds made them look positively potent by comparison. (I'm feeling quite loquacious this morning, by the way. Does it show?) The Cardinals scored 730 runs, 57 more than the limp-lumbered lads from Cincy. Nearly six wins worth of offensive production is nothing to sneeze at.

While the Reds' problems at the platter in 2009 were legion, one can point to two areas in particular which acted as anchors around the necks of the Redlegs. On the one hand, you have the outfield. Then, on the other hand, you have the infield.

One of the more glaring issues for the Reds was the appallingly average sophomore slump of Jay Bruce, who followed up what was a very encouraging debut season with, essentially, the exact same performance. Not that that's the worst thing in the world, mind you; Bruce's OPS+ was 97 in '08 and 100 in '09, making him exactly league average, but this is Jay F. Bruce we're talking about here. He's young, yes, but you still don't expect him to be duking it out with Skip Schumaker for the title of Averagest HItter in all Baseballdom.

The good news, for Cincinnati fans at least, is this: Jay Bruce is still a better hitter than what he's shown in the majors. I feel completely confident in saying I still expect Bruce to be a star, given time to grow and better health. Unfortunately, I can't say the same for the rest of the Reds' outfield. This is, after all, a team which paid Willy Taveras actual, honest to god money to post a .559 OPS over the course of 400+ at-bats. Laynce Nix proved a source of superfluous Y's and steroid speculation, but little else. (Well, except against the Cardinals, that is.) He did put up an OPS+ of 98, but from a left fielder, you've got to expect a bit more thump. The lone real bright spot for the Reds was Johnny Gomes, who hit quite well in the Great American Bandbox, to the tune of an .879 OPS. Unfortunately, Johnny Gomes plays defense like Chris Duncan using an oven mitt. Still, beggars can't be choosers, I suppose.

On the infield, things were a bit more of a mixed bag. The right side of the Reds' gamut of grounder grabbers was brilliant, with Joey Votto establishing himself as a legitimate force (OPS of .981 for the season), and Brandon Phillips turning in another of his usual five-tool showcase performances. The left side of the infield, however, oy. Not so much. Paul Janish and Adam Rosales took the lion's shares of at-bats at shortstop and third base, respectively, and both posted OPS's in the low .600s. (Janish took the low .600s thing to the extreme, posting a .601.) Jerry Hairston played a fair amount at various positions all over the diamond and was a little better, though he still wasn't inspiring shock and awe in too many opposing pitchers.

Now that's the bad news. The good news (again, for Reds' fans), is that there will be different faces at several positions for 2010. Drew Stubbs, the Reds' uber-athletic Mike Cameron clone, came up late in the season and displayed a wide base of exciting tools in center field. Stubbs has speed, he has power, and he can go get it with the best of them in the field. The only thing holding him back is his tendency to take lots and lots of empty swings. Sort of a center field version of Tyler Greene.

The other big upgrade the Reds can count on is, of course, our old buddy Scott Rolen. Rolen came over from the Blue Jays in a midseason trade and played quite well for the Reds, hitting .270/.364/.401 and playing defense which was nearly Rolenesque. The Rolen of old is gone and he's never coming back, but the new model is still a substantial upgrade over what the Reds were trotting out most of the season.

Starting Pitching

What was supposed to be the biggest strength for the Reds ended up helping to drag them down. As the year opened, there were some touting the Reds' 1-2 rotation punch of Edinson Volquez and Johnny Cueto as the best in the National League, and perhaps one of the best in all of baseball. Sadly, Volquez succumbed to injury, having Tommy John surgery in early August, and Cueto seemed to take a step backward from his rookie campaign, even though he ended up with a lower ERA for the season. Cueto started off hot, then imploded in the late summer months, allowing an opponent's OPS of 1.026(!) in July and .938 in August. He did turn things around a bit at the end of the season, pitching better in September, but it wasn't enough to wash away the sins of the previous two months.

As strange as it sounds, Bronson Arroyo actually had sort of an okay year. Sort of. Kind of. He went 15-13, 3.84, gave up less hits than innings pitched (214 H in 220.1 IP), and struck out almost twice as many batters as he walked. Now, as to how he did it, I honestly have no idea. Every time I saw Arroyo, he was being yanked out of the game after giving up five runs in two and a third. He's basically Swamp Gas II: the Swampening at this point for me. Homer Bailey continued to frustrate those of us who believe prospect ranking should count for something, damn it, by not turning into Nolan Ryan, but there were positive signs. While his overall numerical profile doesn't inspire much confidence, Bailey did pitch extraordinarily well in September, going 4-1, 2.08 and striking out 42 batters in 43.1 innings while walking 19. Let's put it this way: if Walt or Dusty decide Homer's just not going to work out up there, I would be more than happpy to take him off their hands.

Elsewhere in the Reds' rotation, Aaron Harang was bad again, Micah Owings was a really good hitter, and Kip Wells gave Cincinnati a taste of the 2007 Cardinal magic.

The rotation could very well still be a strength in 2010 for the Reds. If Bailey really has turned a corner and Cueto can find a bit of his early-season magic after Memorial Day, Cincy could have a nice tandem atop the rotation. Add Volquez possibly returning for the stretch run, and that's an intriguing trio. And as much as it pains me to say it, you could probably do worse than Bronson Arroyo and the Harangutan for your 4th and 5th spots. (Then again, for what the Reds are paying those guys, they could also do miles better.)

Bullpen

And now we come to the real strength of the Cincinnati Reds: their bullpen. (I'll take 'Sentences I Never Expected to Speak' for $600, Alex.) After years of wandering in the desert, searching for relievers, the Reds seem to have finally found the guys to put the kibosh on any late-inning uprisings.

Francisco Cordero is not worth his contract. We'll just get that out of the way up front. Nonetheless, he's a very, very good pitcher even as he enters his mid 30s, posting a 2.16 ERA last season. He could fall off a cliff, but I don't think he will. I think we're just going to have to put up with him being good for the near future. Maybe we could get Spiezio to sober up and just pinch-hit during series with Cincinnati...

The biggest difference for the Reds between 2009 and past seasons was the emergence of Nick Masset and Danny Ray Herrera, the Screwball Kid himself, as legitimate setup men. In the past, even when the Reds had a player who could shut the door at the end of the game (remember when Todd Coffey looked like a good pitcher for like three months? Wasn't that weird?), there was nothing in the way of a bridge to get there. With Masset and Herrera, the Reds finally have that bridge.

The rest of the Redleg relief corps was solid but nothing spectacular. Arthur Rhodes was good, making me wish the Cardinals had more Rhodehouse and less Diner, but secondary LOOGY certainly isn't anything to get too very upset about.

Offseason Priorities

To be honest, I'm not sure how much Walt Jocketty and the rest of his communist cronies are going to be doing this offseason. The very same thing that makes the Reds such an intriguing team is the thing which makes them so difficult to improve. The Reds are a transitional team, and the opportunity cost of bringing in marginal upgrades may just prove to be a bit too steep. Add in the fact Cincinnati appears to have very little breathing room in terms of payroll, and I think it will likely be a relatively quiet offseason for Jocketty and Co.

The two big opportunities for the Reds to make upgrades are at shortstop and left field; unfortunately, upgrading at either of those spots is easier said than done this winter. The Reds lack the financial capacity to get into the bidding for either of the big LF prizes, Holliday or Jason Bay, and most of the other players available would represent a middling upgrade at best. The Reds have two players in their system, Todd Frazier and Chris Heisey, who both could see time in left in 2010. Frazier is a third baseman by trade, but earns his keep mostly with the bat, and could see outfield time a la Allen Craig just to get him into the lineup. Heisy is a speedy, plus-defense type with a line-drive swing and fair on-base skills. It wouldn't surprise me to see the Reds bring back Gomes as a LF/1B guy on days when Votto isn't playing and try to work one or both of Heisy/ Frazier in slowly with ABs in left.

Shortstop, on the other hand, might be a bit more interesting. There aren't a whole lot of guys out there, but there are a couple decent names. If the Reds were looking for an offensive upgrade, either Miguel Tejada or Felipe Lopez could offer a bat for a fair value. Of course, both have significant questions surrounding their abilities to play shortstop, but hey, I said offensive upgrade. If Cincinnati decided to go more for a defense-first guy, Orlando Cabrera can still pick it with the best of them. Regardless, I think shortstop is the most likely position to look toward if the Reds are going to make a move this offseason.

I'm sure Jocketty and Baker would like to pick up a more dependable arm for depth in the rotation, but I'm not sure they'll have the payroll to do so. The Reds are already paying Harang and Arroyo gobs of money; they may try to deal for an arm but I don't see a signing there. The bullpen actually needs the least help of all; they may sign a guy to replace Rhodes if he leaves or something like that, but I think the relief corps is largely set.

The Bottom Line

Do I think the Reds are going to be better than Milwaukee? I must, since I did them before the Brew Crew, right? The answer is a decided and unequivocal maybe. I think the Reds have the potential, certainly, to improve more than probably any other team in the division, simply based on their young talent base. I think the Brewers largely are who we think they are, a team of tremendous offensive talent and very, very limited pitching resources. The Reds, on the other hand, have a lot of untapped potential on both sides of the equation, and depending on how things break, they could vault up the standing in the Central or remain the same enigmatic bunch of underachievers they have been for years now.

I think the addition of Scott Rolen was a cataclysmically bad one, but, paradoxically, I also believe he'll make the Reds better in the coming season. He should provide just enough offense while helping the pitchers out significantly.

In the end, the success or failure of the Reds' 2010 season will likely have little to do with what, if any, moves Walt Jocketty makes this winter. Rather, the fate of the first season of the new decade (eat it, Matty!), will hinge largely on the three pillars upon which we've been told Cincinnati's new glory would be built for years: Homer Bailey, Jay Bruce, and Joey Votto. If those three are the players they were thought to be on the way up, the Reds could very well make some noise. If not, it could be another very long summer in the home of the world's shittiest chili.

The Baron's Playlist for the 16th of December, 2009: the Christmas Catalogue

(In no particular order, by the way)

"Fairytale of New York" - The Pogues
"Rockin' Around the Christmas Tree" - Brenda Lee (listen closely; she's actually saying fucking pie. Seriously.)
"You're All I Want for Christmas" - Brook Benton
"A Change at Christmas (Say it Isn't So)" - the Flaming Lips
"Merry Xmas Everybody" - Slade
"Jingle Bell Rock" - Bobby Helms (this is the song that will one day force me to pull to the side of the road and cry when my mother is gone)
"White Christmas" - The Drifters (sorry, but this one is way, way better than the Bing Crosby version)
"Happy Christmas (War is Over)" - John Lennon and Yoko Ono
"Blue Christmas" - Elvis Presley
"Happy Holidays" - Alabama (I really, really hate Alabama, but I loved this song when I was a kid listening to the old True Value Hardware Christmas records)
"We're Going to the Country!" - Sufjan Stevens
"Peace on Earth/ Little Drummer Boy" - David Bowie and Bing Crosby
"Marshmallow World" - Dean Martin
"God Rest Ye, Merry Gentlemen" - Nat King Cole (another True Value special)
"Frosty the Snowman" - The Ronettes
"Jingle Bells" - Glenn Miller
"I'll Be Home for Christmas" - Frank Sinatra
"I Want a Hippopotamus for Christmas" - Gayla Peevey
"Christmastime is Here" - The Vince Guaraldi Trio (sadly, this song underwent one of the worst remasters I believe I've ever heard just a couple years ago; find the old, unremastered version.)
"Christmas Wrapping" - the Waitresses (this song is utter crap. I fucking love it.)

I'm going to stop at 20. It's tough for me to do, but I'm going to do it.

Wednesday Open Thread: the Aftermath

hugo — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 16:00:09 -0000

More photos » by Elise Amendola - AP

So long, Doc. You are one of a kind. (AP Photo/Elise Amendola)

Browse more photos »

Just wanted to check in with some links around the blogosphere about the Halladay trade and then open it up to y'all:

At Fangraphs, Dave Cameron takes a look at the trade (not the Wallace-Taylor part):

Let’s start with the Blue Jays. They were obviously over a barrel with Halladay after the debacle of trying to trade him this summer. New GM Alex Anthopolous knew he needed to move his ace for the best package he could get, but also come away with enough young talent to sell this as more than an admission that they screwed up in July. In the trio of young players they’re getting from the Phillies, they were able to do just that.

Drabek, Taylor, and D’Arnaud are high quality prospects. For one year of Halladay (and $6 million in cash, which isn’t trivial but less useful to a Toronto team that won’t win in 2010), that’s a very strong return. Anthopolous did well to come away with that level of talent, given his leverage in the situation.

Also at Fangraphs, Dave Allen takes a look at Roy Halladay's stuff. Yeah, he's good. Now, I don't get why Philadelphia felt like they had to deal Cliff Lee on the same day they acquired Doc, since it really wasn't a three team trade. I would've thought they could have done better holding on to him for the best possible return, considering that worst-case scenario is probably a year of Cliff Lee well below market value for a competing team, followed by Type A free agent status. That said, I don't get why Phillies fans aren't happier with the deal. You got Roy Halladay, guys. It's a win. And he signed a team-friendly extension, and you replenished your farm system a bit by dealing Lee.
The Hardball Times likes the deal for the Jays too, including the acquisition of Wallace for Taylor:

Toronto made out extremely well, netting a high-upside pitcher in Kyle Drabek that they don't have anywhere in the system. Toronto has solid rotation depth, especially in the major leagues, but no one you can give the ball to on Opening Day and expect to win. Drabek can be that guy.

Travis D'Arnaud has been coveted by Toronto ever since he was selected a pick ahead of the Jays in 2007. The Blue Jays have J.P. Arencibia in their farm system, but there are questions about his ability to stay behind the plate, and D'Arnaud is the better value anyways. Michael Taylor was a Blue Jay for only the briefest of moments, as he was immediately shipped to Oakland for Brett Wallace.

While Taylor might evolve into a 20/20 player and provide good overall value out of the outfield, Wallace is the type of hitter Toronto needs in its next wave of youngsters. Toronto absolutely needs the upside that Wallace brings with the bat and can afford to worry about defense later. Assuming Wallace can't stick at third (which is not a done deal just yet), he has the options of moving to first or designated hitter, with no one blocking him at either position.

Toronto has put themselves in great position to field a young, competitive club as soon as 2012. That's all they could have asked for in a trade of Halladay.

I have to admit, I wasn't crazy about moving Taylor for Wallace at first, as it seems like Wallace will have to move to first base and I was looking forward to a season of Taylor, not Jose Bautista, in right field for the Jays in 2010 (and beyond). But the more I think about it, the more I'm pleased that the Jays have decided to go with the best talent they can get - I think it shows confidence in evaluation and in the ability to deal one of their 1st basemen/DH types if it comes to it. Overbay is clearly on his way out, Cooper is a big question mark, I like Dopirak well, but Ruiz can't be thought of as any time of long-term plan.

The Drunks have a run-down of Keith Law's comments on the deal. Law doubts Drabek can be a true ace because of the lack of a great third pitch, but likes him as a number two or, at worst, a number three. He thinks Wallace will be a great hitter, albeit as a first-baseman. And he projects d'Arnaud as a solid everyday catcher. Sounds like a plan to me. \
Jordan Bastian mentions what seems inevitable, that Overbay is on his way out, at the latest after 2010, that Cooper's stock has fallen, and that the Jays are considering moving Wallace to third base. I don't see the harm in keeping Wallace at third base in AAA if he's not going to make the major-league roster, though, unless they want to try Scott Campbell everyday at third in Las Vegas again.

What say you, banterers?

Update: 1:30 pm. Apparently, someone failed a physical, potentially putting the deal in jeopardy depending on who it is. We've heard it wasn't Doc or Cliff Lee (can you imagine Doc failing a physical? I think the treadmill used for the stress test would fail first) or Phillipe Aumont, so who?

Update^2: 2:45 pm. Blair says the entire physical-failing rumor was completely false, and other sources are confirming that the deal is final and there will be a Doc press conference this afternoon. That was a weird hour.

Wednesday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 15:16:15 -0000

More photos » by Morry Gash - AP

Mark DiFelice hopes to pitch for the Brewers again in 2011.

Browse more photos »

Some things to read while choosing carefully.

Well, this was bound to happen eventually: There's virtually no Brewer news today. Today's top story is the $100,000 minor league deal given to Mark DiFelice, who will spend the 2010 season rehabbing with Brewer trainers in the hope of returning to the mound with the Crew in 2011 (FanShot).

Elsewhere, Marc Hulet of FanGraphs has a look at the last few Brewer drafts, from a somewhat pessimistic point of view. The Brewer organization is down a bit and there's certainly not a lot of depth to speak of, but I think they deserve a little more credit than that.

I recently contributed to a discussion on the NL Central's moves at the Winter Meetings over at The Nats Blog, along with seven other NL Central sites.

We're continuing to plug away at the BCB All Decade Team. You have until 4 pm today to vote for our final starting outfielder, and 4 pm tomorrow to vote for our first bench infield spot. Geoff Jenkins has a pretty commanding lead in the former, but Craig Counsell's lead is much smaller in the latter. A new vote will open at 4 today.

Around baseball:

Royals: Are expected to sign former Twins pitcher Phil Humber to a minor league deal.
White Sox: Acquired Juan Pierre and cash from the Dodgers for two PTBNL.

Meanwhile, side deals are being struck to go along with the not-yet-official Mariners-Phillies-Blue Jays deal involving Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay: When/if the deal becomes official, the Blue Jays will send outfielder Michael Taylor to the A's for third baseman Brett Wallace, recently acquired in the Matt Holliday deal.

In a financially larger transaction, the Rangers are one large step closer to having a new owner, as Tom Hicks has selected a group of investors including current team president Nolan Ryan to begin negotiations.

Not much else going on, so I guess we can talk about a couple of former Brewers: The B-Ref blog has a look at some of the unique facets of Mike Cameron's career. He's in elite company on some relatively significant all-time lists. The Transaction Oracle projects him to hit .252/.349/.442 in 2010.

Meanwhile, I know I said I'd try to go the rest of the week without mentioning Jason Kendall, but this Transaction Oracle quote is a little too good to pass up:

Seriously, if the Royals gave me $1 million to me to kick Moore in the crotch, they'd be better off from both a financial and a baseball standpoint.

How about a note about a former Brewer catcher that was actually pretty good? Cardboard Gods has a post where at least a couple of paragraphs are about Darrell Porter.

Here's a study I'd like to see someone duplicate for the Brewers: DRaysBay has a look at variations in the 2009 Rays' attendance based on starting pitcher. There's a lot of factors to consider (opponent, day of the week, position in the standings), but I wouldn't be surprised to discover the Brewers lost a fair chunk of attendance on days when Jeff Suppan or Braden Looper pitched down the stretch last season.

Speaking of things someone could duplicate for the Brewers, FishStripes has a Marlins add-on for Firefox. I'm not sure what exactly that entails, but if someone made a Brewer one and it didn't get in the way while I'm trying to work, I'd use it.

It's possible it's just something to do for the sake of pretending to do something, but Bud Selig has formed a committee to consider and address on-field improvements for the game, and one writer (Phil Rogers of the Chicago Tribune) thinks it might be the first step towards a legitimate challenge of the DH rule. (h/t BBTF) Craig Calcaterra, however, threw some cold water on the theory.

On this day in 1999, the Brewers signed Jose Hernandez to a three year, $10 million deal. Hernandez had one very good season as a Brewer and made the All Star team in 2002, but also struck out 498 times in three seasons, leading the NL in two of his three years.

On this day in 2002, the Brewers traded Ray King to the Braves for Wes Helms and John Foster. Helms spent three years as a Brewer, hitting .268/.335/.425. Somehow, I remember him being much worse than that.

Happy birthday today to:

Alcides Escobar, who turns 23.
2003-2004 Brewer Matt Kinney, who turns 33.
Former Brewer first round pick and 1975 Brewer Tommy Bianco, who turns 57.

Drink up.

Blue Jays set to deal Michael Taylor?

Eli Greenspan — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 22:57:17 -0000

More photos » by Jeff Roberson - AP

Browse more photos »

The Blue Jays are reportedly poised to swing top prospect Michael Taylor, who was recently acquired from the Phillies in the Roy Halladay deal, to the A's for top prospect Brett Wallace.

Neither side would comment on the issue, but Beane wouldn't go as far as to deny the whole deal.

"We're not in position to comment right now," Beane told Bay Area News Group.

The A's have a lot of depth at the corner infield positions, especially after landing 3B Jake Fox from the Cubs, who is expected to be in the teams Opening Day lineup. Adding Taylor gives them a player with just as much upside, and can be slotted into an outfield spot when ready to go.

In two minor league seasons, Wallace is a .302 career hitter with 34 home runs. He has the potential to hit for 20-30 home runs once he reaches the major leagues.

Taylor, 23, is .312 career hitter with 45 home runs and a .383 OBP in three minor league seasons. He also has the potential to hit for power in the major leagues.

There is no timetable for an announcement of the deal.