UFC 129 Predictions And Analysis On The Fight Fix

Luke On The Fight Fix

Host Dustin Green and guest Luke Thomas give their analysis and predictions for the UFC 129: St. Pierre vs. Shields fight card including Randy Couture vs. Lyoto Machida, Jose Aldo vs. Mark Hominick and Georges St. Pierre vs. Jake Shields.

Host Dustin Green is back with another episode, this time talking to yours truly. We talk about the three main fights of UFC 129 and I give predictions for them all. I also argue the notion that Jake Shields is going to get steamrolled is 'pure fantasy', that Randy Couture has a decent chance against Lyoto Machida and that I expect UFC featherweight champion Jose Aldo to submit Mark Hominick. Full transcription is available after the video:

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Full Transcription:

8 secs, Gilbert Melendez on Shields vs GSP: "GSP hasn’t lost one round in his last 5 fights.  He’s 25 rounds straight.  He’s been in control of every fight.  It’s almost like he doesn’t like to get into that aggressive, standing in the pocket, crazy fight.  He likes to be in control.  Jake’s gonna take that away from him. He’s gonna make this a dog fight.  He’s gonna make [GSP] wrestle him.  He’s gonna get into a scrap.  He’s gonna force [GSP] to fight him."

28 secs, Jake Shields on the UFC Welterweight Belt: "Getting the UFC belt means a lot to me, but beating George St. Pierre means so much more.  If I was winning it from someone else, it wouldn’t be the same.  But George St. Pierre has been the top guy for the last 3 or 4 years.  He’s one of the most dominant if not the most dominant fighter of all time.  He’s the guy I wanna get the belt from."

1:14, Luke Thomas picks Aldo vs Hominick: "Listen, I’m gonna go a little heavy on the chalk, so don’t kill me if you’re a purist.  I do like Jose Aldo.  I think that Jose Aldo…maybe he’s not the striker that Mark Hominick is, maybe he is.  It’s debatable.  I think we’ll find out in this fight.  I tend to believe that Jose Aldo is a much more athletic striker even though Mark Hominick might have more of a background in it and certainly is a refined technician.  But I ultimately believe if you look at the ways in which Hominick has lost: he’s lost by submission, particularly to guys who stick to him, who are athletic, who can transition position – well that’s Jose Aldo to a tee.  I don’t know that it’ll happen early – I think he’s been really patient with the way in which he’s fought guys.  He’s not rushing fights.  He took his time with Urijah Faber.  But when opportunities present themselves, he takes them.  And I think eventually, over the course of 5 rounds or less, I think he’s gonna snatch up an arm, or a leg, or a neck."

2:12, Luke Thomas picks Couture vs Machida: "If this was like the 2000  Randy Couture, I would actually give Couture a helluva chance.  I think [Couture] could push Lyoto Machida against the fence he can really grind on him.  He could take him down and put him on his back, and probably hold him there for a long while.  But the difference for me is that it’s gonna be hard for him with his footwork and his ability to corner someone in the cage.  To find a way to isolate positionally standing Lyoto Machida.  He’s gonna have to find a way to rush in, and moreover… you know, listen…Machida doesn’t throw a ton of kicks, so he’s gonna have a nice working range.  But I also kinda believe that the ability of Couture, even at 48 as athletically gifted as he is, the body can’t take that amount of punishment anymore.  You saw that against Brandon Vera.  You saw that against a few other guys.  I believe eventually Couture’s gonna run in, he’s gonna eat a knee or a punch, and that’s gonna do him in.  I do think though it’s gonna be a little more competitive at least early for Randy Couture.  Ultimately though, I see that going Machida’s way.  But, you know listen…Couture has had the most unbelievable career ever arguably in the UFC and he’s gonna be shooting not 1 but 2 movies this year, so don’t cry too much for him."

3:33, Luke Thomas picks GSP vs Shields: "The notion that [Shields] is gonna give GSP trouble I think is a little misguided.  My sense about things though is that people are criminally underrating Jake Shields.  Do I think GSP is gonna win?  Yea, I do.  I think, ultimately, I don't see a lot of ways for Jake Shields to win.  That being said, the wrestling of Jake Shields...it's not that's he's a dominant   physical wrestler, it's that he is an unforgiving persistent wrestler.  So you stop his shot, so you stop his reshot.  Can you stop his reshot off the reshot?  He will stick to you like glue and I think his toughness is just completely unheralded.  The guy fought not 1 but 2 top middleweights.  Now 1, Robbie Lawler did not swing on him, Dan Henderson did and then Jake Shields managed to hang on.  I think he is super, super tough.  Listen, in the standup does he have the skills to hang with George St. Pierre?  He does not.  On the floor is he better than George St. Pierre?  Maybe, but can he find a way to get on top.  And even then, Shields has had problems finishing guys who are not nearly as gifted as George St. Pierre.  By the way, St. Pierre spends as little amount of time on his back as anybody in the UFC.  I don't think there's just enough reason to believe that Shields can defeat St. Pierre, but this idea that St. Pierre is gonna come in there and steamroll Jake Shields is pure fantasy."

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