The following post is written by an Odds Shark representative.
It should come as no surprise that St. Pierre (21-2-0) comes into the bout as huge -500 chalk at Bodog.com, while Shields (26-4-1) is priced as a +300 underdog in his second UFC fight. St. Pierre is arguably the best pound-for-pound fighter in the world, and figures to have an advantage in nearly every department against Shields.
"Rush" has cashed eight straight bouts since his loss to Matt Serra back in 2007, as he's defeated all comers in the UFC welterweight division. Enter Shields, who has 15 wins in a row to his credit since last tasting defeat nearly seven years ago.
Outside of Shields' considerable ability on the mat, St. Pierre's biggest obstacle on Saturday could be outside distractions. St. Pierre recently fired his manager and he has to be thinking about a potential super-fight with current UFC middleweight champion Anderson Silva.
Shields does present intriguing value at this price, but he's too much of an unknown against easily the best welterweight talent in the world. If Shields can't take down St. Pierre early, it should be a long night for the challenger.
(For updated lines and info on all the fights at UFC 129, check out SB Nation's lines partner Odds Shark).
In the other title bout at UFC 129, Jose Aldo (18-1-0) is a huge -550 fave against Mark Hominick (20-8-0), who's listed as a +350 pup in what's the first featherweight championship matchup in UFC history.
Like with Shields, this is Aldo's first bout in the UFC Octagon, but that shouldn't stop him from handling Hominick. Aldo is one of the best offensive fighters in MMA writ large, and if he controls the gaps, he'll win the crown in Toronto.
Also on the main card, Randy Couture (19-10-0) is a +250 underdog against Lyoto Machida (16-2-0, -325) in what's likely his final professional fight. The 47-year old Couture has won three consecutive bouts, with his last triumph coming against former boxer James Toney at UFC 118 last August.
Couture would present a tough challenge for "The Dragon" if this were Couture's prime, but with the light heavyweight going out on Saturday, he'll be fortunate to last the distance against the favorite. Machida has dropped his last two fights, however, including a split-decision loss to Quinton "Rampage" Jackson at UFC 123 last November.
Finishing off the main set of bouts, Bodog has Ben Henderson as -145 chalk for his lightweight fight against Mark Bocek (+115), while light heavyweight Vladimir Matyushenko is a -115 pick ‘em opposite Jason Brilz (-115).
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