As part of the UFC 129: St. Pierre vs. Shields fight card, Canadian Jason MacDonald will take on American Ryan Jensen. It's not a hugely important fight, but is good filler on the card. It's also probably do or die for either fighter if for their inconsistency more so than than any losing streak.
This is a middleweight fight (185lbs) and will take place on the under card. It's not of huge importance and MacDonald's Canadian nationality in part is helping him to get a spot on the card. Still, it's a competitive affair and worth taking a deeper look into for clarity about the larger card.
MacDonald is a fantastic athlete, but doesn't possess brute strength and isn't necessarily the best endurance athlete. I wouldn't go as far as saying his cardio is lacking, but he's taken sufficient damage in his fights enough to say whatever reserves he does have they are often depleted less by distance and more by absorbing punishment. Notwithstanding, he possesses a dynamic guard and has notable submission wins over Chris Leben and Ed Herman. Both MacDonald and Jensen have a common loss in Wilson Gouveia.
My issue about MacDonald is that his best place to win the fight will be on top of Jensen, but that's going to be hard to achieve positionally. Jensen isn't the best wrestler in MMA, but he's capable particularly on the defensive end of the equation. He's also likely stronger than MacDonald and more savage in his aggression. That spells trouble for MacDonald, especially early.
Yet, Jensen isn't so technically sound that he's free from error on opponents he can physically and positionally control. Jensen's gas tank is somewhat of an issue as he starts strong and fades. From there he becomes defensively lax. If MacDonald can weather a storm he should be able to take advantage of a fatigued Jensen in the second or third round.
If I'm leaning somewhere here, I'm leaning MacDonald. I was initially leaning Jensen, but I don't trust his gas tank or submission defense over the long run.
The fight will air on Facebook.