If you had to guess the odds for a rematch between two men who battled to a hotly contested draw in their first bout you'd probably place the two fighters close to even. And that's basically what you're looking at for the light heavyweight championship rematch between Bernard Hopkins and Jean Pascal.
The 46-year-old Hopkins will be making a bid to become the oldest man in boxing history to win a major world championship while Pascal will attempt to re-assert himself as the clear #1 fighter in the light heavyweight division.
If the odds hold, Pascal will enter the ring as a slight favorite at anywhere between -140 and -150. Meaning you will have to risk $140 (in the case of the -140 line) to win $100. If you're an experienced better who loves to gamble based on value, break-even rates and all that good stuff, you would need to think Pascal wins this fight around 60% of the time to place a reasonable bet on him.
As for Hopkins, he's the slight underdog at somewhere in the +120 range. $100 risk makes for a $120 reward in this situation and as with the "deeper numbers" expressed for Pascal you're looking at needing to see Hopkins winning this fight better than 45% of the time for a positive expectation.
Really, the fight comes down to how much you believe the 46-year-old Hopkins has left. The Roy Jones Jr. rematch didn't present a ton of promise to a viewer and then getting dropped in the opening rounds against Pascal had Bernard looking like a shot fighter. But his ability to dirty the fight up and control the ring allowed Hopkins to suddenly look like his old self as the bout wore on and he battled his way to a draw.
If Hopkins is his old self, that being a grinding, savvy and rough ring general, he likely represents a very tempting bet. If he is all of his 46 years, as may be the case after a seemingly tough weight cut, then Pascal may be in for an easy night.
It's a hard enough fight to call without money riding on the outcome.