This is surprising. Former UFC heavyweight and light heavyweight champ Randy Couture believes Fabricio Werdum will defeat current Strikeforce Heavyweight Champion Alistair Overeem at this weekend's Strikeforce: Overeem vs. Werdum event. Couture is widely regarded as having an excellent ability to predict fight outcomes and while I wouldn't challenge that claim generally, he's botched the main event predictions for both UFC 130 and UFC 131. Is he mistaken here?
Certainly Werdum is capable of beating Overeem, although oddsmakers have Overeem as the heavy favorite. But it's Couture's reasoning that gives me pause. He recognizes Overeem's skill and power, but describes him as reckless and risk-taking. I don't agree with that assessment at all. That might've been true in Overeem's light heavyweight days and he does have a history of fighters with speed or explosion being able to overcome whatever defenses he presented. But he isn't just bigger and stronger. He's a much more controlled, strategic and disciplined fighter as well.
Overeem is probably more willing to exchange in the pocket than he should be and he will throw a high risk, low percentage maneuver like a flying knee, but that isn't the hallmark of his present fighting style. Overeem is much more about landing clean, hard and properly placed strikes, controlling distance and using his physical size to out-position opponents. If Werdum can take this fight to the floor all bets are off and I'm not convinced about Overeem's take down defense. Couture may end up being correct as well, but I simply do not agree with Couture's characterization of Overeem's offensive game.