UFC 146 Odds: Dos Santos vs Mir Betting Lines Favor Knockout

OAKLAND CA - AUGUST 07: Junior dos Santos punches Roy Nelson during the UFC Heavyweight bout at Oracle Arena on August 7 2010 in Oakland California. (Photo by Jon Kopaloff/Zuffa LLC/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images)

The Junior dos Santos vs Frank Mir fight is scheduled for five rounds as a championship bout, but oddsmakers don't think it will last that long.

Most sportsbooks have set 1.5 as the over-under for MMA bettors at UFC 146, and since the champion is a huge favorite and has never been taken down in his UFC career, presumably that means a JDS knockout.

"Despite all of Frank Mir’s experience and his incessant blogging about submitting dos Santos, the betting line points to a knockout and early end to the fight," said Jack Randall, MMA analyst at OddsShark.com.

Several sportsbooks set the over under at 1.5 rounds, while wagering action in Vegas and around the world continues to pour in on JDS in his first title defense. Betting has pushed the moneyline up to -550 on the champ, while Mir believers he can get him at +425.

While it’s the main event, it’s hardly the best betting value on the card from Las Vegas Saturday. The c-Main Event is also one-sided at the betting window, where former champ Cain Velasquez is -400 against Antonio Silva. Cain probably earns a rematch with JDS with the quick victory here.

Randall sees the safest money on Edson Barboza to brutalize erratic Jamie Varner in his UFC return. Although at -550, it’s a lot to risk.

Underdog value, according to Randall, resides with Dave Herman, who is a +180 underdog against Roy Nelson. Herman is capable of the upset here, although he’s also capable of doing something dumb and losing inside 30 seconds.

And Dan Hardy fans are shoving their money behind the British brawler, but they will be disappointed with the outcome – and their wager – when he loses to Duane Ludwig. Hardy is -130 at most shops tracked by BestUFCOdds.com, but Ludwig will rebound from his loss to Josh Neer in January.

And for MMA prop bettors, the fight most likely to be over in the first round is Stefan Struve against Lavar Johnson. Johnson fought three weeks ago in beating up Pat Barry, and the heavy-handed Strikeforce veteran will win by knockout or be submitted within a few minutes.

Struve has a weak chin but terrific submission skills in his 6'11 frame.

UFC 146 - dos Santos vs Mir Odds - (aggregated by Odds Shark, which also has MMA odds the CWFC Fight Night 6 card, Bellator 70 and TUF semifinals this week).

Mike Brown -160

Daniel Pineda 130

Kyle Kingsbury 170

Glover Teixeira -215

Dan Hardy -130

Duane Ludwig 100

Jacob Volkmann -215

Paul Sass 170

CB Dollaway 115

Jason Miller -145

Jamie Varner 425

Edson Barboza -550

Darren Elkins 205

Diego Brandao -265

Stefan Struve -125

Lavar Johnson 105

Cain Velasquez -400

Antonio Silva 325

Shane Del Rosario 135

Stipe Miocic -155

Roy Nelson -225

Dave Herman 185

Junior Dos Santos -550

Frank Mir 425

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