OAKLAND CA - AUGUST 07: Junior dos Santos punches Roy Nelson during the UFC Heavyweight bout at Oracle Arena on August 7 2010 in Oakland California. (Photo by Jon Kopaloff/Zuffa LLC/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images)
The Junior dos Santos vs Frank Mir fight is scheduled for five rounds as a championship bout, but oddsmakers don't think it will last that long.
Most sportsbooks have set 1.5 as the over-under for MMA bettors at UFC 146, and since the champion is a huge favorite and has never been taken down in his UFC career, presumably that means a JDS knockout.
"Despite all of Frank Mir’s experience and his incessant blogging about submitting dos Santos, the betting line points to a knockout and early end to the fight," said Jack Randall, MMA analyst at OddsShark.com.
Several sportsbooks set the over under at 1.5 rounds, while wagering action in Vegas and around the world continues to pour in on JDS in his first title defense. Betting has pushed the moneyline up to -550 on the champ, while Mir believers he can get him at +425.
While it’s the main event, it’s hardly the best betting value on the card from Las Vegas Saturday. The c-Main Event is also one-sided at the betting window, where former champ Cain Velasquez is -400 against Antonio Silva. Cain probably earns a rematch with JDS with the quick victory here.
Randall sees the safest money on Edson Barboza to brutalize erratic Jamie Varner in his UFC return. Although at -550, it’s a lot to risk.
Underdog value, according to Randall, resides with Dave Herman, who is a +180 underdog against Roy Nelson. Herman is capable of the upset here, although he’s also capable of doing something dumb and losing inside 30 seconds.
And Dan Hardy fans are shoving their money behind the British brawler, but they will be disappointed with the outcome – and their wager – when he loses to Duane Ludwig. Hardy is -130 at most shops tracked by BestUFCOdds.com, but Ludwig will rebound from his loss to Josh Neer in January.
And for MMA prop bettors, the fight most likely to be over in the first round is Stefan Struve against Lavar Johnson. Johnson fought three weeks ago in beating up Pat Barry, and the heavy-handed Strikeforce veteran will win by knockout or be submitted within a few minutes.
Struve has a weak chin but terrific submission skills in his 6'11 frame.
UFC 146 - dos Santos vs Mir Odds - (aggregated by Odds Shark, which also has MMA odds the CWFC Fight Night 6 card, Bellator 70 and TUF semifinals this week).
Mike Brown -160
Daniel Pineda 130
Kyle Kingsbury 170
Glover Teixeira -215
Dan Hardy -130
Duane Ludwig 100
Jacob Volkmann -215
Paul Sass 170
CB Dollaway 115
Jason Miller -145
Jamie Varner 425
Edson Barboza -550
Darren Elkins 205
Diego Brandao -265
Stefan Struve -125
Lavar Johnson 105
Cain Velasquez -400
Antonio Silva 325
Shane Del Rosario 135
Stipe Miocic -155
Roy Nelson -225
Dave Herman 185
Junior Dos Santos -550
Frank Mir 425