NASCAR Wild Card Drivers: Rating Their Realistic Chase Chances

There are 14 NASCAR drivers still mathematically eligible for just three Chase spots heading into the cutoff race Saturday night at Richmond International Raceway.

But how realistic are the chances for each of the wild card drivers? Below are the Chase scenarios, driver quotes and our evaluation of their realistic chances.

12. DENNY HAMLIN

Chase scenario: If Paul Menard, David Ragan or Marcos Ambrose don't win, Hamlin just has to finish seventh or better to make the Chase – or hope another wild card candidate doesn't win.

Quote: "Winning is everything and we come here with the mindset that we need to win. ... I'd like to end the regular season on a good note, not limp in on the last leg."

Realistic chances: Very likely.

13. AJ ALLMENDINGER

Chase scenario: Allmendinger must win Richmond and either gain 12 points on Hamlin or hope Keselowski makes it into the top 10 in points.

Quote: "It's pretty simple. We've got to win and have a little bit of help. You don't have to worry about where you're at points-wise unless you cross the finish line and you've won."

Realistic chances: Not impossible.

14. CLINT BOWYER

Chase scenario: Bowyer must win Richmond – where he's won before – and either gain 13 points on Hamlin or hope Keselowski makes it into the top 10 in points.

Quote: "I think the Chase is pretty much over. Even if we win, good God, it makes a mathematician to make all the stars line up. I'm not really worried about that."

Realistic chances: Best of the drivers without a win.

15. GREG BIFFLE

Chase scenario: Biffle needs to win Richmond and either gain 29 points on Hamlin or hope Keselowski makes it into the top 10 on points.

Realistic chances: Questionable.

16. MARTIN TRUEX JR.

Chase scenario: Truex must win Richmond and either gain 34 points on Hamlin or hope Keselowski makes the top 10 in points.

Quote: "To be able to come here and have a shot at getting in the Chase is fantastic. I feel like we have a really good shot at it. ... It's a longshot. There's no two ways about it. ... We definitely have a shot."

Realistic chances: Truex can't decide, but we'll call it "Extremely unlikely."

17. KASEY KAHNE

Chase scenario: Kahne must win Richmond – he's done it before – and then hope Keselowski makes it into the top 10.

Quote: "I didn't know we had a shot."

Realistic chances: Not very good.

18. JOEY LOGANO

Chase scenario: Logano must win Richmond and hope Brad Keselowski makes it into the top 10 in points.

Quote: "We need to win at this point. We're going to do everything we can. All that's still possible, it still can happen. You've got to go into this race with the right attitude and thinking you can be confident you can do it."

Realistic chances: Highly doubtful.

19. MARK MARTIN

Chase scenario: Martin must win Richmond and hope Brad Keselowski makes the top 10 in points.

Quote: "Not really thinking about the Chase. We're just thinking about trying to steal a win."

Realistic chances: Not gonna happen.

20. PAUL MENARD

Chase scenario: Menard needs to win the race or stay in the top 20 while Keselowski makes the top 10.

Quote: "We know who we have to beat. We know we have to stay ahead of David (Ragan) and Marcos (Ambrose) – the guys with the wins. We know Brad can get into the top 10 – we're cheering hard for him to do that."

Realistic chances: Unlikely, but not impossible.

21. MARCOS AMBROSE

Chase scenario: Ambrose must win and get into the top 20 in points.

Quote: "All we can do is win the race, and if we do that, we'll be inside the top 20. We're an outside shot, but you never know. Crazy things have happened."

Realistic chances: None.

22. JUAN PABLO MONTOYA

Chase scenario: Montoya must not only win and get into the top 20 in points, but also hope Keselowski makes the top 10 in points.

Quote: "(The second half of the season) has been pretty rough. I'll tell you the truth, it's been pretty rough."

Realistic chances: A snowball's chance in Miami.

23. DAVID RAGAN

Chase scenario: Ragan must make the top 20 in points and either win the race or hope Keselowski makes the top 10 in points.

Quote: "All we can do is just go out and try as hard as we can to win the race. I feel like we've got a great shot."

Realistic chances: Do you believe in miracles?

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