The weather forecast for Bristol Motor Speedway remains very wet for the NASCAR Sprint Cup race on Sunday. It appears very that we will get the race in let alone starting on Sunday based on all the forecast data I have looked over. The image below show where the rain could be from 11 a.m. EST on Sunday until 8 p.m. Sunday evening.
As you can see from the image above, rain over Bristol Motor Speedway all day and into the evening.. There are some forecast models out there that start to break the rain up towards early evening. That is possible, especially with the mountain terrain around the track, but at this point I am not confident in that scenario, but it is a possibility.
CAN WE RACE SUNDAY? The likelihood appears very low for racing on Sunday. While there is one scenario where the rain could break up towards evening I am not too optimistic. My biggest concern is that even if there are breaks, the windows won't be long enough to dry the track and get to racing. Getting Sunday's race started on times is out of the question and I don't think we get a window until evening or later. Odds of racing Sunday (including racing under the lights), around 20 percent.
BUT BRISTOL HAS LIGHTS, CAN WE RACE AT NIGHT? As I said above, even when I factor in the lights, I am just not feeling confident that we get a long enough window to race to halfway. That's if we see a window to begin with.
YOU'RE A METEOROLOGIST, YOU CAN BE WRONG: This is very true, my forecast could be wrong but I've talked with other meteorologist like my NASCAR weather colleague on Twitter @RaceWeather and we both feel the same way about this weekend's weather forecast. We should be dry for the Nationwide race Saturday but very wet, with a low probability of racing on Sunday.
SHOULD I GO TO THE RACE SUNDAY OR MONDAY? These questions are the hardest to answer because I can't nor will I tell someone what they should do. If I paid money to go to a race, and as a meteorologist if I saw the smallest glimmer of a window, I'd probably take the risk and go, but that's me. I recommend that if you are trying to decide whether or not to go, don't just use my weather forecast but look at as many reliable weather sources as you can.
WHAT DOES MONDAY'S FORECAST LOOK LIKE? Monday's weather still has areas of rain and even possible morning snow showers in the forecast, but the threat of precipitation diminishes as we head into the afternoon and evening. If NASCAR were to reschedule the Bristol race to Monday afternoon, they would have a much better shot of getting a full race.
With rain in the forecast and expected on radar Sunday morning, please follow me on Twitter @NASCAR_WXMAN and like me on Facebook for the latest weather updates as this forecast develops going into the weekend.
Race Schedule: All Times Eastern
9:00 a.m EDT
Sprint Cup Series practice – Sun and clouds – temp: 44
10:10 a.m EDT
Nationwide Series qualifying – Sun and clouds – temp: 47
12:00 p.m EDT
Sprint Cup Series final practice – Sun and clouds – temp: 53
2:00 p.m EDT
Nationwide Series race – Sun and clouds – temp: 59
11 a.m EDT
Sprint Cup pre-race – Rain – temp: 47
12 p.m EDT
Sprint Cup pre-race – Rain – temp: 49
1 p.m EDT
Sprint Cup race – Rain – temp: 49
2 p.m EDT
Sprint Cup race – Rain – temp: 50
3 p.m EDT
Sprint Cup race – Rain – temp: 51
4 p.m EDT
Sprint Cup race – Rain – temp: 50
6 p.m EDT
Sprint Cup race – Rain – temp: 48
8 p.m EDT
Sprint Cup race – Cloudy, rain showers – temp: 46
10 p.m EDT
Sprint Cup race – Cloudy, rain showers – temp: 44
MONDAY Weather Forecast:
Showers possible in the morning,diminishing in the afternoon. mostly cloudy. – High: 49