Disappointed by the New York Knicks? That says more about how overrated the team was before the trade for Carmelo Anthony, and how overrated 'Melo himself has been.
Mar 23, 2011 - Based on reaction to the New York Knicks' latest travails, you'll be forgiven if you believe that the Knicks are actually worse since trading for Carmelo Anthony. They aren't, really. The Knicks had an average margin of victory of +0.4 before the trade, and have a margin of victory of +1.3 since grabbing 'Melo.
Wistfully watching the Denver Nuggets ring up wins has shrouded the situation on the ground; just because the parts sent to Colorado fit better under George Karl and with a defensive frontcourt the quality of Nene and Kenyon Martin doesn't mean that the Knicks were fools to give them up. The Knicks were an average team before the trade. If you look at points margin -- the best prognosticating tool we have in basketball -- the Knicks are a bit better than average since the trade.
So those disappointed by the Knicks right now fall somewhere in here.
To lash out at the Knicks in a macro view right now is to show some level of disconnect with the realities of NBA basketball. The Knicks simply were not very good before the trade. The team had a tenuous grasp on above-.500 basketball, unable to mount an attack on the squad above them in the standings (the Atlanta Hawks), a team that happens to be one of the worst good teams ever. The offense was just fine; the defense was abysmal, as bad or worse than it had been for any of Mike D'Antoni's Phoenix Suns teams.
As it turns out, trading for 'Melo, a scorer known to concede with some regularity on defense, didn't fix the defense. Who could ever have guessed that? As it also turns out, 'Melo isn't quite as valuable a scorer as he has widely been considered to be. Anthony isn't terribly efficient; when Kevin Durant, LeBron James or even Kevin Martin drop 25, they typically do so on fewer shots than someone like 'Melo would need. That matters! Some discount Anthony's shot creation value too much, and those who claim he's not even a legit All-Star level player are being disingenuous; the Knicks' offense, after all, has performed statistically better since the trade, hellfire and all.
But 'Melo isn't one of the top five or 10 players in the league. It appears the hype of his months-long courtship by the Nets and Knicks (and a few other teams) blinded enough people to that fact, given the shock and dismay his sub-MVP performance in New York has drawn. If fans expected Alexander the Great and instead got Mithridates, well of course they'll be disappointed, even if he turns out to be pretty good. So much of our sporting satisfaction and pleasure is tied to expectations; how else can you explain a fanbase being so ginned up for Amar'e Stoudemire's .500 Knicks and crushed by Carmelo Anthony's .500 Knicks?
Nothing has changed in the weeks since the 'Melo trade: The Knicks are pretty average, with huge holes on defense. Howard Beck of the New York Times expertly digs into the Knicks' specific needs, but it's worth noting that few are new or were even exasperated by the 'Melo trade. Take this line, for example:
[Danilo] Gallinari was an energetic defender and [Wilson] Chandler was the Knicks' best post defender, a role that is now unfilled. The Knicks' most efficient lineups this season featured Stoudemire at center and Chandler at power forward, according to 82games.com.
If Wilson Chandler is your best post defender, you are in for a world of hurt. So it stands that the Knicks' post defense was awful with Chandler on the team, and it's awful without him. It's not going to be decent without a better post defender than Wilson Chandler in place. Regarding the lineups: New York's most-used lineup this season, which featured Stoudemire at center and Chandler at power forward, went +59 in 572 minutes, for an average points margin per 48 minutes of +4.9. The most-used post-trade lineup, featuring Stoudemire and Ronny Turiaf up front and 'Melo at small forward, is +5.1 points per 48 minutes with an excellent 1.01 points per possession figure on defense. That lineup (with Chauncey Billups and Landry Fields) has been limited to a few dozen minutes, but it's as promising as the best pre-trade lineup.
Beck's take is sober and nuacned; elsewhere, the focus is on Anthony's personal failings, or D'Antoni's inability to win without Steve Nash, or everything but the truth central to any analysis of this trade at this point. And that truth is that the Knicks weren't and aren't very good. Sorry New York, but your Knicks aren't back just yet.
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tom ziller sucks at writing
by Sub-Zero on Mar 24, 2011 12:25 AM EDT reply actions
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