While we wait for Las Vegas to weigh in on the Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics series -- and as we process the results of Miami Beat vs. Boston Celery -- we can look to a projection of how the series will go based on regular season performance.
The log5 projection system, popularized by Bill James in baseball and Dean Oliver in NBA circles, uses teams' Pythagorean winning percentage to determine win probability on a game-by-game basis. We can extrapolate that out for a series by figuring for all of the potential outcomes of each game. Pythagorean winning percentages relies on total points scored and total points allowed, which has been relied upon as the best measures of postseason success.
Here's what the log5 projection says about Heat vs. Celtics.
According to log5, the Heat have a 64 percent probability of winning the series, with the most likely outcome being Heat in seven. The Heat actually claim the three most likely scenarios, with a nearly 20-percent probability of winning in five, which would be a shocking outcome given the popular sentiment.
Pythagorean winning percentage doesn't take into account specific matchups, and it's worth noting that the log5 system made the Orlando Magic heavy, heavy favorites over the Atlanta Hawks. The Hawks knocked out the Magic 4-2 on Thursday.
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