The Dallas Mavericks are getting a pretty big benefit of the doubt from anyone picking them to win multiple games in their series against the Oklahoma City Thunder, because the numbers simply don't support it. The Log5 projection system gives Oklahoma City a strong probability of winning the series in four or five games.
Check out our map of the potential outcomes below the jump.
The Thunder have an 84 percent probability of winning the series, and a 50 percent probability of winning 4-0 or 4-1. The probability of a Thunder sweep is greater than any flavor of Mavericks series win. According to the numbers, there's a 23 percent probability that the Mavericks can push the series to seven games. Once there, the Thunder would be favored, 70-30.
Of course, I can't blame anyone for giving the Mavericks some extra skin -- the numbers liked the Lakers over Dallas a year ago, and the Mavs swept them in vicious fashion. (Log5 did have the Mavericks over the Thunder, but not the Heat.)