No team goes into their first-round series in the NBA Playoffs more strongly favored than the San Antonio Spurs. Playing against the upstart Utah Jazz, the Spurs are projected to dominate. Understandably, many analysts have hedged on San Antonio, given that last year they were favored to blow out the Memphis Grizzlies but fell apart and became the latest No. 1 seed to fall to a No. 8 seed.
This year should be different, though. Below the jump, we map out the probabilities of the eight possible series outcomes.
The Log5 projection system gives the Spurs a 91 percent probability of winning. In fact, the probability of a Spurs' sweep -- 25 percent -- is nearly three times the probability of the Jazz winning the series. Utah does have a 3-in-4 likelihood of winning at least one game, but even then, there's a 60 percent probability of the series only going five games.