We're less than 12 hours away from knowing who will have the first pick in the 2013 NBA Draft -- fingers crossed, Orlando -- but we're already pretty certain who that first pick will be. In a relatively weak draft, pretty much everybody agrees that Kentucky big man Nerlens Noel, despite an ACL tear that ended his lone season in college, will be chosen first.
The high-topped 6'10 power forward didn't take long to show himself as an athletic freak. He averaged 10.5 points and 9.5 rebounds, but most scarily, 4.4 blocks, just a shade off the numbers that earned one-and-done Kentucky big man predecessor Anthony Davis the first pick in last year's draft. Although Noel's injury kept him out of the NBA Draft Combine and could keep him out of games through the start of 2013-2014, scouts seem to agree he's the top option.
Here's a look at the top pick in a smattering of mock drafts, most of which don't account for team need:
SB Nation: Nerlens Noel, Kentucky
Draft Express: Nerlens Noel, Kentucky
Sports Illustrated: Nerlens Noel, Kentucky
CBS Sports: Nerlens Noel, Kentucky
ESPN: Nerlens Noel, Kentucky
NBADraft.net: Ben McLemore, Kansas
Here's a look at who else is listed in the various top fives:
Ben McLemore, Kansas (one No. 1, four No. 2s, one No. 4)
Anthony Bennett, UNLV (three No. 3s, three times not in top 5)
Otto Porter, Georgetown (one No. 3, one No. 4, one no. 5, three times not in top 5)
Alex Len, Maryland (one No. 2, two No. 5s, three times not in top 5)
Victor Oladipo, Indiana (one No. 3, two No. 4s, three times not in top 5)
Trey Burke, Michigan (one No. 4, three No. 5s, two times not in top 5)
Cody Zeller, Indiana (one No. 4, five times not in top 5)
The general consensus -- as you can tell from the amount of players with wide variance -- is that it's an open draft. Noel and McLemore seem the only locks to be top three picks, while everybody else is clustered with the potential to go almost anywhere.