SB Nation - Nene Hilario

Game 23 Preview: Oklahoma City at Denver

Zorgon — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 00:07:21 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

It looks like Nene just woke up to discover that he was dunking a basketball. Huh?

Browse more photos »

This also counts as an open thread, so feel free to post your thoughts during the game here.

Time: 7:00 PM Central Standard Time

Place: The Pepsi Center, Denver, Colorado

TV: Fox Sports Oklahoma, Altitude Sports

Radio: WWLS The Sports Animal (98.1)

Enemy Blog(s): Denver Stiffs, The Nugg Doctor, Roundball Mining Company

Backstory: After enduring a brutal loss to Cleveland, the Thunder look to bounce back with what would be an extremely major win against the Nuggets. Most would call this game inconsequential, but when you look at the fact that Dallas is coming up and the fact that 3 losses in a row would put us back at .500, the game suddenly has meaning.

Meanwhile, the Nuggets are in the midst of what could become their best season ever. After last year's surprise trip to the finals, it's no surprise. They rely on their extremely proficient scoring and a deep bench to knock out their opponents. And with recent losses against Charlotte and Detroit, there's no way the Nuggets will have the luxury of overlooking the Thunder.

Below: Matchups, Prediction

Matchups:

Center: Nenad Krstic vs. Nene Hilario

Nene has this matchup, hands down. He'll overpower Krstic in the lane, and I don't think Krstic will get many opportunities for jumpers.

Power Forward: Jeff Green vs. Kenyon Martin

Jeff Green faces yet another matchup against a more physical center. Kenyon Martin has lost a lot of his athleticism though, so it's not too far out of the realm of possibility that this could be the matchup where he breaks the trend.

Small Forward: Kevin Durant vs. Carmelo Anthony

Lots of scoring, lots of scoring. Oh my.

Shooting Guard: Thabo Sefolosha vs. Aaron Affalo

Affalo is a 3-Point Specialist, and Thabo Sefolosha closes out well against shooters. Expect him to have the upper hand, especially against a role player like Affalo.

Point Guard: Russell Westbrook vs. Chauncey Billups

Chauncey Billups is one of the best scorers, game managers, and defenders in the NBA. He'll undoubtedly use his Better Basketball powers to dominate Russell Westbrook in every facet of the game, no question.

Battle of the Benches:

The Nuggets bench is deeper, and more talented by far.

Coaching and Intangibles:

The Nuggets are at home, have arguably the better coach, and really need this win in order to keep contending for the second spot in the West. I'd say almost everything is in their favour, especially since the Thunder are on the tail end of a road back to back.

Bottom Line:

This game is going to rest on whether Jeff Green can overcome Kenyon Martin, whether Russell Westbrook can have a decent night against Chauncey Billups, and whether the Nugget bench can be kept at bay. A lot of things have to go right for the Thunder to win, and I just don't see it happening.

Prediction: Nuggets 117, Thunder 98

How do you think the game will go? Vote in the Poll!

And, again, feel free to drop any comments you might have during, before, or after the game below. I might be by during the game to drop my thoughts as well. Go Thunder!

Poll

Who's going to win tonight?

Around the Association: 2009-2010 Denver Nuggets - If it ain't broke...

Hash — Tue, 08 Sep 2009 01:10:40 -0000

Damn, I'm starting to realize why no one jumped to sign up for an Around the Association look at the Denver Nuggets. Relatively speaking, these guys didn't do jack in the offseason. Short of the drafting of Ty Law, recent Tar Heel point guard, the Nuggets pretty much went out of their way to ensure that they held on to the components that took them into the 2008-2009 Western Conference Finals. When you look at it, why the hell not? While it seems like the Nuggets went on a bit of a dream run, 'Melo and company showed that this squad was more than capable of taking down anyone in the league.

...or at least, anyone in the league not called the Lakers. Zing!

Hey, if we had a team that could do this, we wouldn't change much either...

Make the jump for a quick glimps into the fate of the Nuggets for the 2009-2010 season!

Carmelo Anthony . Chauncey Billups. Nene Hilario. J.R. Smith. Kenyon Martin. Much like the Nuggets of years' past, this roster is full of talent, both among starters and on the bench. The question remains, can Denver pull off the powerhouse run that they did last year; raking in a dominant second seed in the mighty mighty West?

Okay, they're going to make the playoffs - that's a given. I mean, c'mon. Seriously. Who DOESN'T make the playoffs anymore? Can you think of a single team in recent history that has gone over 10 years without even one appearance?! Oh wait...

So far for Denver this offseason feels as though the subtle moves they've made re:changes in personnel have had a more of a base in cutting back the overall salary, rather than improvements in player talent. While George Karl and company hasn't really changed the meat and potatoes of this team, one can only wonder if the shakeup of the other components of the dish that is the Nuggets will be for the better or for the worse. They have a tough road ahead of them to duplicate (and exceed) last years' performance.

Offseason Moves:

Acquired Malik Allen from the Milwaukee Bucks
Drafted Ty Law from UNC
Acquired Aaron Afflalo from the Detroit Pistons
Resiged Chris "Birdman" Andersen (5 year contract)
Re-signed Anthony Carter (1 year contract)
Re-signed Johan Petro (1 year contract)

2008-2009 Rewind

Finished the season 54-28
Ranked #2 in the Western Conference.
Dispatched by the Lakers in the Western Conference Finals - 4 games to 2 games

Hash's Prediction

They're an excellent dark horse team for the West again this year. Hopefully we will see them achieve wins with the same ferocity that they did last year, only to get swept by the Warriors in the Western Conference finals. While I'm at it, there will be a unicorn present at the final Warriors-Nuggets Western Conference Finals Game. He will spin the ball atop his horn, dazzling everyone who sees him. "Oooohs" and "Aaaaahs" will be heard by all.

For more on the Denver Nuggets check out Denver Stiffs:

2009-2010 Around the Association

Introduction
Atlanta Hawks: Sorry, Mrs. Jackson. The Hawks are for real.
Boston Celtics: Sheed in Green + Another Answer
Charlotte Bobcats: They Do Exist
Chicago Bulls: Ring Around the Rose-y
Cleveland Cavaliers: Now or Never
Dallas Mavericks: The Curse of the Dampier
Denver Nuggets: If it ain't broke...
Detroit Pistons
Houston Rockets
Indiana Pacers
Los Angeles Clippers
Los Angeles Lakers
Memphis Grizzlies
Miami Heat
Milwaukee Bucks
Minnesota Timberwolves
New Jersey Nets
New Orleans Hornets
New York Knicks
Oklahoma City Super Sonics
Orlando Magic
Philadelphia Sixers
Phoenix Suns
Portland TrailBlazers
Sacramento Kings
San Antonio Spurs
Toronto Raptors
Utah Jazz
Washington Wizards
Rewind

Golden State Warriors 1st Round Draft History and Just My Imagination

Atma Brother ONE — Mon, 22 Jun 2009 07:15:09 -0000

What if the Warriors had a string of PERFECT drafts with their 1st round picks during the Chris Cohan era of prime suckitude? What if there were no busts and only draft delights for this franchise since Cohan sued his way into owning it back in 1993?

What if this guy never owned the Dubs? [via images.forbes.com]

Why am I so scarred to look up how little my basketball card collection is worth? What can possibly be any better than what lies after the jump?

1994

With the 16th pick in the 1994 NBA Draft the Golden State Warriors selected... Clifford Rozier.

via www.checkoutmycards.com

Rozier was out of the league within 4 season and was the first bust of the Cohan era. Also see We Like Obscure NBA Players: Clifford Rozier [MVN]

IMAGINE if the Warriors selected Wesley Person (#23).

via www.checkoutmycards.com

Just like his brother Chuck, Wesley Person was a 3-point assasin. Over the course of his 11 year career he shot 41.8% from downtown. Another good option would have been Aaron McKie (#17). McKie was a solid all-around player and a nice defender for nearly a decade. He even managed to collect the 6th Man of the Year trophy for the 2000-2001 season. The key here is that both of these guys actually stuck in the league past their 25th birthday.

1995

With the 1st pick in the 1995 NBA Draft the Golden State Warriors selected... Joe Smith.

via i16.ebayimg.com

IMAGINE if the Warriors selected Kevin Garnett (#5).

via mlb.imageg.net

I don't think much needs to be said about K to the G aside from... BRING KG TO THE BAY!

Rasheed Wallace (#4), Antonio McDyess (#2), Jerry Stackhouse (#3), Michael Finley (#21) ain't no joke either. You could even argue Kurt Thomas (#10) and Brent Barry (#15) has better NBA careers than Ordinary Joe.

1996

With the 11th pick in the 1996 NBA Draft the Golden State Warriors selected... Todd Fuller.

via www.checkoutmycards.com

You laugh now, but how many people can tell their kids they got drafted ahead of Kobe Bryant?

IMAGINE if the Warriors selected Kobe Bryant (#13).

via i84.photobucket.com

Would the Warriors be in the 2009 NBA Finals if they drafted Kobe?

The list of who they passed on will make you cringe: Steve Nash (#15), Jermaine O'Neal (#17), Peja Stojakovic (#14), Zydrunas Ilgauskas (#20). Shoot I wouldn't be that upset if the Dubs took the Junk Yard Dog Jerome Williams, but TODD FULL-ER?

1997

With the 8th pick in the 1997 NBA Draft the Golden State Warriors selected... Adonal Foyle.

via www.sportcardsandstuff.net

IMAGINE if the Warriors selected Tracy McGrady (#9).

via www.checkoutmycards.com

via i2.iofferphoto.com

This last one just looks goofy.

Would the Warriors be 1st round virgins from 1997-present?

Putting aside the fact that their draft spot is not independent of who they drafted the year before, do you realize the Warriors could have had a legendary trio of KG-Kobe-TMac?

Excuse me while I jump off the Bay Bridge...

1998

With the 5th pick in the 1998 NBA Draft the Golden State Warriors selected... Vince Carter. Then they immediately trade him to the Toronto Raptors for Antawn Jamison (#4).

via www.checkoutmycards.com

IMAGINE if the Warriors selected Dirk Nowitzki (#9).

via www.checkoutmycards.com

There's nothing wrong with the Jamison-Vinsanity swap and the Dirk pick via heist of the Milwaukee Bucks by Don Nelson and the Dallas Mavericks was pure (shocking) genius, so I don't fault Gary St. Jean and company one bit for this one. Still having an MVP on the Warriors would make this draft a little more perfect.

via a.espncdn.com

Paul Pierece at #10 ain't too bad either.

1999

With the 21st pick in the 1999 NBA Draft the Golden State Warriors selected... Jeff Foster. Then they immediately traded him to the Pacers for #26 pick Vonteego Cummings and a future first-round draft pick.

via ecx.images-amazon.com

IMAGINE if the Warriors selected Andrei Kirilenko (#24).

I hope he's grabbing a rebound, not taking a shot here.

via www.checkoutmycards.com

2000

The Warriors traded their pick pre-draft to the Magic. The Magic ended up taking Mike Miller with the 5th overall pick. It must be noted that with the 55th pick the Golden State Warriors selected the incomparable... Chris Porter.

Man I loved this guy's hair.

via www.checkoutmycards.com

2001

With the 5th pick in the 2001 NBA Draft the Golden State Warriors selected... Jason Richardson.

via www.checkoutmycards.com

IMAGINE if the Warriors selected Gilbert Arenas (#31).

via www.checkoutmycards.com

Don't get me wrong. I love that J-Rich pick, but what would have happened if the Warriors had Agent Zero on contract beyond his sophomore season? It wouldn't matter that Cohan couldn't look him in the eye.

Hey even better- what if the Warriors actually kept both J-Rich and Arenas?

Remember this?

With the 14th pick in the 2001 NBA Draft the Golden State Warriors selected... Troy Murphy.

via www.checkoutmycards.com

IMAGINE if the Warriors selected Tony Parker (#28).

Notice any uncanny resemblance to a current Warrior combo guard?

via www.checkoutmycards.com

Still this was easily Gary St. Jean's one shining moment as GM of the Warriors: J-Rich, T-Murph, and Arenas. Simply amazing.

2002

With the 3rd pick in the 2002 NBA Draft the Golden State Warriors selected... Mike Dunleavy Jr.

I bet Rick Barry didn't find this amusing.

via www.sportsbuy.com

IMAGINE if the Warriors selected Amare Stoudemire (#9).

via www.checkoutmycards.com

Well I guess there would be no Funleavy Foto Fun. That wouldn't be any fun now, would it?

The Dubs also passed on Caron Butler (#10), Nene Hilario (#7), Drew Gooden (#4)

With the #16 pick in the 2002 NBA Draft the Warriors selected... Jiri Welsch (via trade with the 76ers).

FUTURE (not so) PERFECT.

via www.gamesandcards.com

IMAGINE if the Warriors selected Carlos Boozer (#35).

via img.photobucket.com

Amare and Boozer wouldn't been NASTY. Who cares if they don't play any D?

2003

With the 11th pick in the 2003 NBA Draft the Golden State Warriors selected... Mickael Pietrus.

via www.checkoutmycards.com

IMAGINE if the Warriors selected David West (#18).

via i3.ebayimg.com

Josh Howard (#29) a superior wing player to MP2 would have been nice too. But remember none of these guys have MP2's goofiness.

2004

With the 11th pick in the 2004 NBA Draft the Golden State Warriors selected... Andris Biedrins.

Loading up on hair gel was a good move.

via www.checkoutmycards.com

IMAGINE if the Warriors selected Josh Smith (#17).

via i7.ebayimg.com

This draft actually went had some nice late picks: Al Jefferson (#15), Jameer Nelson (#20), Kevin Martin (#26), Anderson Varejao (#31), and Trevor Ariza (#44).

2005

With the 9th pick in the 2005 NBA Draft the Golden State Warriors selected... Ike Diogu.

via www.checkoutmycards.com

IMAGINE if the Warriors selected Danny Granger (#17).

Marlon Wayans!

via www.checkoutmycards.com

Seriously how did Granger slip so far in this draft? Other people of note who the Warriors passed on in the 1st round: Andrew Bynum (#9), Hakim Warrick (#19), Nate Robinson (#21), Jason Maxiell (#26), Linas Kleiza (#2 7), David Lee (#30). Redemption of course came later on in the second round at pick #40 with a guy by the name of Monta Ellis.

2006

With the 9th pick in the 2006 NBA Draft the Golden State Warriors selected... Patrick O'Bryant.

How about we "throwback" this pick instead?

via i13.ebayimg.com

IMAGINE if the Warriors selected Rajon Rondo (#21).

via www.checkoutmycards.com

This was a bad, bad draft.

2007

With the 8th pick in the 2007 NBA Draft the Golden State Warriors selected... Brandan Wright (via trade with Charlotte Bobcats).

via www.checkoutmycards.com

IMAGINE if the Warriors selected Joakim Noah (#9).

via www.checkoutmycards.com

With the 18th pick in the 2007 NBA Draft the Golden State Warriors selected... Marco Belinelli.

via i1.ebayimg.com

IMAGINE if the Warriors selected Ramon Sessions (#56).

via www.checkoutmycards.com

Some of the other names the Warriors passed on include Thaddeus Young (#12), Al Thornton (#14), Rodney Stuckey (#15), Wilson Chandler (#23), Rudy Fernandez (#24), Aaron Brooks (#26), Carl Landry (#31), Glen Davis (#35), and Marc Gasol (#48).

The jury's still out on all of these draft picks and Wright could be better than Noah when it's all said and done, but as of right now the 2007 Warriors draft class isn't looking very impressive. We shall see soon enough.

2008

With the 14th pick in the 2008 NBA Draft the Golden State Warriors selected... Anthony Randolph.

via www.oncardauto.com

IMAGINE if the Warriors selected Patrick Ewing (#43).

via cards-basketball.com

Oh I missed the "Jr" part on this Patrick Chewing. Seriously though, this pick is looking real good right now.

So here's how THE PERFECT WARRIORS 1st Round NBA DRAFT HISTORY over the Cohan years would look:

1994: Wesley Person
1995: Kevin Garnett
1996: Kobe Bryant
1997: Tracy McGrady
1998: Dirk Nowitzki
1999: Andrei Kirilenko
2001: Gilbert Arenas and Tony Parker
2002: Amare Stoudemire and Carlos Boozer
2003: David West
2004: Josh Smith
2005: Danny Granger
2006: Rajon Rondo
2007: Joakim Noah and Ramon Sessions

Now obviously no one's going to have a perfect draft history (not even Nellie or Isiah Thomas- ESPN), but all those misses over the years... ouch.

Taking you back... way back... The Temptations- "Just My Imagination". For more draft day reflection check out: Nellie Knows NBA Draft: The Warriors and Mavericks Years. Head on over to NBADraft.net's History section for endless hours of draft fun too.

2009

With the 7th pick in the 2009 NBA Draft the Golden State Warriors select... ______________________.

IMAGINE if the Warriors selected ______________________.

Fill in the blanks in the comments.

Poll

What was the biggest miss in the 1st round of the NBA Draft over the years Chris Cohan has been the majority owner of the Golden State Warriors?

1994: Clifford Rozier (#16) over Wesley Person (#23)

2 votes

1995: Joe Smith (#1) over Kevin Garnett (#5)

435 votes

1996: Todd Fuller (#11) over Kobe Bryant (#13)

1431 votes

1997: Adonal Foyle (#8) over Tracy McGrady (#9)

98 votes

1998: Antawn Jamison (#4) over Dirk Nowitzki (#9)

8 votes

1999: Jeff Foster (#21) over Andrei Kirilenko (#24)

4 votes

2001: Jason Richardson (#5) and Troy Murphy (#14) over Gilbert Arenas (#31) and Tony Parker (#28)

13 votes

2002: Mike Dunleavy Jr. (#3) and Jiri Welsch (#16) over Amare Stoudemire (#9) and Carlos Boozer (#35)

275 votes

2003: Mickael Pietrus (#11) over David West (#18)

5 votes

2004: Andris Biedrins (#11) over Josh Smith (#17)

6 votes

2005: Ike Diogu (#9) over Danny Granger (#17)

62 votes

2006: Patrick O'Bryant (#9) over Rajon Rondo (#21)

55 votes

2007: Brandan Wright (#8) and Marco Belinelli (#18) over Joakim Noah (#9) and Ramon Sessions (#56)

3 votes

2397 votes | Poll has closed

Jump Ball Statistics

erivera7 — Tue, 16 Jun 2009 14:00:21 -0000

Ever wondered how many times Dwight Howard won the opening tip in each game of the regular season? Seems like a mundane statistic to track, and maybe some of you are saying 'who cares?' but thanks to the current statistical revolution occurring in the NBA, more and more data is being tabulated for the benefit of the general public to analyze & examine. It never hurts to look at different types of numbers.

A few weeks ago, I enlisted the help of Ryan J. Parker of Basketball Geek to provide me with the jump ball statistics for different players around the league. I was curious about the numbers because you figure, using a little common sense and a little observation, that Howard should be among the leaders in the Association on winning the opening tips at the beginning of games. Is this true?

Let's take a look ..

Using my data, if we limit the list to all players that have taken part in 50 jump balls to start the game, we get the following list:

The mean of this group: 54.1%

Shaquille O'Neal	70.0%	70 (57.7%, 80.1%)
Dwight Howard	69.2%	78 (57.6%, 78.9%)
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	67.9%	56 (53.9%, 79.4%)
Samuel Dalembert	63.4%	82 (52.0%, 73.6%)
Josh Smith	62.1%	66 (49.3%, 73.5%)
Chris Bosh	59.4%	69 (46.9%, 70.9%)
Jeff Green	56.4%	55 (42.4%, 69.4%)
Emeka Okafor	56.0%	75 (44.1%, 67.3%)
Erick Dampier	52.6%	76 (40.9%, 64.1%)
Tim Duncan	50.7%	69 (38.5%, 62.9%)
Marc Gasol	49.2%	70 (36.7%, 61.8%)
Nene Hilario	48.6%	70 (36.6%, 60.7%)
Brook Lopez	48.6%	72 (36.8%, 60.6%)
Mehmet Okur	45.3%	64 (33.0%, 58.2%)
Andres Biedrins	41.2%	51 (27.9%, 55.8%)
Yao Ming	39.7%	68 (28.3%, 52.3%)
Kendrick Perkins	39.4%	71 (28.3%, 51.8%)

So that's the player name, % of time their team obtained possession, # of jump balls, and then a 95% confidence interval for the true proportion.

As you can see, there is a fair amount of uncertainty here. Even the guys on the bottom could really be >50% guys. That said, there is evidence to suggest Howard is in the top of the league in this statistic.

The fact that Dwight ranks, essentially, at the top of the NBA in the jump ball statistic (behind Shaq, ironically) during the regular season shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone that follows the Magic closely. I mean, let's be frank here, Howard is an athletic freak so he's going to win his fair share of opening tips at the beginning of games. That's the perception, and with a look at the numbers, that's the reality.

Lakers Beat Nuggets 119-92 to Win Series – Game 6 Recap

C.A. Clark — Sat, 30 May 2009 11:00:41 -0000

More photos » by Chris Carlson - AP

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I'm not going to lie. When I volunteered to take this recap a couple days ago, I didn't think it would be an overly positive one. Call me a defeatist. Call me a realist. A large part of me expected the Lakers to lose. I didn't think it would be a repeat of Game 6 vs. Houston, but I thought the Nuggets were too good to be beaten by anything other than 100% effort and execution at home, and I just didn't see that happening tonight. In fact, I was already thinking about what to write for the inevitable "One game to settle it all" post, ready to analyze why everything would be OK for the Lakers in Game 7.

Can you blame me? When have the Lakers followed up a strong victory with another good performance? When have they played with maximum effort for multiple games? When was the last time we saw the Lakers play like a team that is truly worthy and extremely capable of winning the NBA championship? Now, that's when.

Unbelievable game for the Lake Show. From top to bottom, there is almost nothing to complain about. Besides the first half turnovers (which really snuck up on me, when I saw the half-time stats, it didn't feel like they had that many TOs), and Bynum's poor offensive performance (he really shouldn't look to score if he's starting more than 5 feet out at this point – pass it back out and re-post with better position, please), absolutely nothing went wrong. I can't do a Good, Bad, and Ugly post because we'd be short two sections, so I'm doing this recap stream-of-consciousness style. We'll start at the top.

Kobe F-ing Bryant. One game does not a Great Debate settle. LeBron has had some incredible performances, and even saying that Kobe's Game 6 was as good as or better than LeBron's game 5 is an argument with no winners. I will simply say this. I would not trade the Kobe Bryant that played tonight for anybody in the league. I'm not sure I would trade him for anybody in the history of the league. His game was simply perfect. Totally unselfish, totally in control of every aspect of the game. And when he saw the opportunity to put a foot to Denver's throat, 11 points in the final 3:09 of the first half, and an assist to Ariza for another 3 to boot. A 13 point lead going into the half, and the game was never really close after that. The type of game that makes me thank a higher power for allowing me to be a Lakers fan during the Kobe Bryant era.

The rest of the squad. You really don't need me to tell you about the rest of the individual performances. You know there was really no one who played a bad game. You know that Ariza played out of his mind. 17 points on 9 shots in 22 minutes, in case you forgot. Ridiculous. You also know that Pau and Lamar were both huge tonight. You know Pau played incredible defense. You know that a 27 point win, in enemy territory, in a Western Conference Finals, to close out the series in six games, can only happen when the entire team brings their A game. Tonight, everyone brought their A+ game. Tonight, they were all valedictorians in the game of basketball.

The coaching. I've got more on Phil later, but he really did a great job with all the things that we've been complaining about all series. He kept the rotations tight, and, sensing the kill, he started Kobe, Pau, and Odom in the 4th and played them all until the game was no longer in question. Kobe played all but 1:30 of the 2nd half until the end. Pau played the entire 2nd half before being removed when there was no doubt. Jackson never gave Denver the slightest hint of a lineup that the Nuggets could take advantage of. In short, he did all the things we weren't sure he knew how to do, or thought he was too stubborn to do.

The Lakers were lucky tonight. This takes nothing away from their game. They came to play, they were focused, they played with great energy. They earned this victory as clear as day. But any fan expecting Trevor and Luke to combine for 12-16 shooting and 27 points every game, expecting the Lakers to shoot above 50% from 3 point range, has unreasonable expectations. And I think they got the benefit of some calls too.

The officiating. I set off a bit of a firestorm with this piece about the officiating, written after game 4. Since then, I've been doing my absolute damndest to watch these games with a color-free lens, to see if I thought the officiating was fair. I defended the game 5 refs as calling the game one way the whole game, with the Lakers doing a better job of adapting to the way the game was being called. In game 6, almost every time I saw something I thought to be questionable, the Lakers were the ones getting the call, or not getting called. In fact, I was going to re-watch the game to try and provide evidence that this was the case. Perhaps it's easy to be magnanimous in the face of a big win. But, in the end, I decided it really didn't matter. It didn't affect the outcome of the game too much. If the game had really been called in a one-sided manner, there would have been a free throw discrepancy. Denver's play decided the game much more than the officiating even could have. But, for what it's worth, I can sympathize with a Nuggets fan's frustration with the zebras tonight.

The other team. For all of the compliments paid to our team, it was unfortunate to see Denver play the way they did. Outside of Martin, their effort was sorely lacking tonight. Instead of the Lakers' effort being questioned, it was Denver who weren't closing out on shooters. The Lakers were the ones getting wide open layups and dunks. The Nuggets ball movement wasn't very good, as evidenced by 14 assists on 40 makes, with 13 turnovers. It certainly seemed like they regressed a little bit. I don’t know if they just had a really bad game, or if being faced with elimination brought out the worst in them. Happy as I am to have the Lakers skip game 7, part of me was disappointed that the Nuggets didn't really show tonight.

This is just one man's opinion, but I think a big part of the Nuggets' poor performance derived from their reaction to the officiating in game 5. In Game 4, the Lakers felt the officiating was unfair, but only Phil made a point of talking about it after the game (to my knowledge, I could be wrong). After Game 5, Karl was working the refs angle just like PJ did, and that's fine. That's a coach's job. But the Nuggets players were also complaining about it. The unidentified player (which was absolutely, definitively either JR Smith or NeNe) quote is the biggest example, but K-Mart indicated what he thought about the refs indirectly, and to a lesser extent, so did Billups. (Ed. Note: Really, Chauncey? I thought expected more from you...) I thought then that it was in their heads, and the carry over to Game 6 seemed clear to me.

One of the pivotal moments of tonight's game, for me, was towards the end of the 3rd. The Nuggets were on an 8-0 run, cutting a 20 point lead to 12. The Nuggets were looking potent on offense, and Kobe was off the floor. The game was still very much in doubt. Then, K-mart tries to get a ridiculous charge call on Sasha (as if Sasha would be capable of knocking him down under any circumstances), doesn't get the call, and proceeds to pull his holding-on-to-the appendage routine for the second time in two games. 2 free throws for Sasha. Next possession, Nuggets turn the ball over, and JR reaches out and grabs Sasha for no reason. Two more free throws, 16 point game, never in doubt again. Everyone would agree the Nuggets have grown considerably this season, but they still have a lot to learn about keeping their cool.

Phil Jackson. I leave you with this thought about our estimable coach. We've been on him pretty hard for a lot of different reasons. Fisher's playing time, the rotations, the unwillingness to call a timeout. But he made a strategic decision that, in my opinion, really changed the dynamic in this series. The type of decision that only someone who has won 9 championships has the temerity to make. Someone who knows that the end prize, not the journey, is the ONLY thing that matters. Jackson decided not to really try to win Game 4. The beginning of the 2nd quarter of that game had a lineup of Lamar Odom, Shannon Brown, Sasha Vujacic, Pau Gasol, and … Josh Powell. He put Lamar at the 3 for the first time pretty much all season, and Bynum didn't even get the extra minutes. Then, when the Nuggets built up a double digit lead in the 2nd half, Jackson made the decision that changed the series. He decided that the Lakers' chances for winning the game were pretty low. The Lakers were on their 11th game in a row, every other night. So he rested Pau Gasol, for 9 minutes. He gave Pau a bigger rest, in one stint, than the big got in any other game in this series. The same amount of rest that he got in games 2 and 3 combined. A bigger rest than Pau got in both games 5 and 6 combined. And while the stats don't necessarily back up my assertion, anybody who watched this series in full would agree that the Pau who showed up in Games 5 and 6 was a different player than the one from the first 4 games. I don't know of many coaches who would have the chutzpah to make that decision, and I'm glad that the one who did is coaching my team.

Here's hoping he can finally make an unquestioned claim to being the best coach in the history of the game in 4-7 games.

Lakers-Nugs Game 5: Tempo-Free Boxscore Breakdown

DexterFishmore — Fri, 29 May 2009 05:28:44 -0000

Robert's high-top fade and knock-off Versace shirt are brought to you by the year 1991. Just relax on the white leather sectional, girl, while Smoove Rob spins a little Keith Sweat....

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Anyone who's been following the Lakers' 2009 playoff run - also known as the Spring of Our Extreme Angst and Discontent and Holy Crap This Team Is Driving Me Nuts I Need a New Hobby - has, at one time or another, read or heard something like the following: The Lakers are struggling because they're painfully young. They don't have enough role players with the fortitude that comes only with playoff experience. What they really need are guys like Robert Horry, Brian Shaw and Rick Fox, who had been through the playoff wars and were the backbone of the 2000-02 championship teams. Veteran Savvy(tm) needed! And get these kids offa my lawn and what do you mean my left turn signal's been on for the past two miles!

Best I can tell this - uh, "theorem" let's call it - began burbling to the surface a couple weeks ago following a quote, along the lines of the foregoing, by Derek Fisher. I don't think Fish meant to propose a Grand Unifying Theory of Lakerdom at the time. I suspect he was just thinking aloud after a loss at a moment when he was feeling nostalgic for the past. No problem. But the central idea - that the Lakers would be rolling to the title unopposed but for a lack of age and veteran seasoning - gained traction in a few articles about the team, and attained the status of Official Media Storyline in a column written by Mark Heisler and published in Wednesday's edition of the Los Angeles Times.

It's a bizarre column, to be honest, structured as it is around a convoluted metaphor involving Jello-O and refrigerators (don't ask). Fish is quoted in full paragraphs, however, and Heisler basically takes Fish's words and presents them, unchallenged, as a comprehensive explanation for the Lakers' struggles in the playoffs. The Laker young bucks, the argument goes - Andrew Bynum, Jordan Farmar, Shannon Brown and their ilk - just don't have the veteran moxy needed for the team to weather the postseason storms.

Hear now my plea, reporters of the Times: ENOUGH. The narrative you're trying to peddle is lazily constructed and ill-informed. Not everything a player says into your microphone needs to be reprinted as fact. You can scrutinize their assumptions and test their statements against available evidence. That's allowed in this country.

After the jump, I remind everyone that Robert Horry, Rick Fox and Brian Shaw aren't walking through that door, and I explain why that's not necessarily a bad thing. And of course, the usual review of the Game Five numbers. Ready, steady, click.

I enjoyed the early-aught title years as much as the next Laker fan. The breakthrough against Portland in the 2000 Western Conference Finals, the 2001 April-to-June rampage, torturing Sacramento just for kicks in 2002.... good times all around. But here's why nostlagia for those Lakers of yore shouldn't be a basis for nitpicking this year's squad:

1. The threepeat Lakers had playoff struggles of their own. I don't buy the idea that the current Lakers are suffering through playoff difficulties materially different from what we saw in the most recent Golden Age. Events, once they've happened, often seem predetermined in retrospect. Because the Lakers won three straight championships, we look back and craft a story of how they were always destined to do so. But they weren't. That's just sepia-toned revisionism at work.

On at least three occasions during that three-year stretch, the Lakers were nearly dead. On at least three occasions, they had the blindfold on and were smoking their last cigarette. There was the fourth quarter of Game Seven against Portland in 2000, when the Lakers trailed by 13 before an improbable comeback. There was Game Four against Sacramento in 2002, when the Lakers trailed the series 2-to-1, and at one point trailed in the game by 24 points. And there was the overtime Game Seven against the Kings that year, when Peja Stojakovic and Doug Christie both missed open looks that could have won or extended the game for Sacramento. Any one or more of these three moments could have swung to a different outcome. A bad bounce here, an unfortunate whistle there, and those Laker teams are remembered very differently.

My point being, there was nothing about those teams that ensured a smooth path to the title. Only the 2001 squad was a wire-to-wire playoff monster. In the other two years, there was plenty of anxiety and frustration and periodic failure of confidence, just as we've been chronicling here at SS&R over the past few weeks. All the veteran moxy in the world won't keep trouble from finding you in the playoffs.

2. If age and experience are the magical ingredients, what of 2003 and 2004? The phrase "threepeat Lakers" is a bit of a cheat, in that it conveniently cuts off the era after the last title. But that same team made another run, but fell short, in 2003. Remember 2003? Same roster, essentially, but this time Robert Horry's shot - the one in Game Five at San Antonio that could have sent the Lakers back to Staples with a 3-2 series lead - missed. In fact, it's easy to forget now, but both Horry and Shaw were truly awful throughout those playoffs.

Which isn't meant to be hugely dissful toward those guys. Honestly, it's not. Sometimes shots go in, sometimes they don't. Sometimes players have cold stretches that can't be helped. But the notion that Horry, Shaw, et al. had cracked the Playoff Code through their veteran wiles is plainly incorrect. The sport of basketball is just too hard, and won't bend to so simplistic a thesis.

And 2004. Oh dear, 2004. Shaq, Kobe, Karl Malone, Gary Payton... has ever an NBA team had more playoff experience on its resume? Of the starters - including the legendary fifth Beatle, Devean George - only Payton hadn't participated in multiple NBA finals, and he had appeared in one. And yet, these guys cratered spectacularly against the Detroit Pistons, of whose regulars only Rasheed Wallace (not quite the first name in cool-headed leadership) and Elden Campbell had experience in the advanced playoff rounds.

3. Of the 2009 Lakers, it's not the young guys who've been the problem. It's more than a little incongruous to hear Fish pine for the days when his teammates were longer in the tooth, inasmuch as he both is the oldest Laker and has been by far the worst of the playoff regulars. The third-oldest player on the team, Lamar Odom, has had a pretty shaky postseason as well. Lamar is a little dinged up, of course, and was brilliant in Game Five, but still - if the overall performance of Fish and Lamar is what we get from extensive playoff experience, I'd like a little less, please.

Meanwhile, Trevor Ariza, who doesn't even have the benefit of having played extensively in last year's run, has been awesome, and what little production we've seen out of the PG position has come from young bucks Farmar and Brown. There doesn't seem to be any correlation between playoff experience and performance among this year's Lakers, and to the extent that there is, I wouldn't say it's at all complimentary to the team elders.

4. If age and experience were predictors of playoff success, the Lakers should be cruising to the title. OK, let's assume for a moment that some playoff experience is useful to have under one's belt this time of year. Maybe the Lakers don't have as much as you'd ideally like to see, but take a look at their opponents. The Houston Rockets, famously enough, hadn't been out of the first round in 12 years. The only Rockets with substantial postseason experience either were injured and didn't play against the Lakers (T-Mac, Deke and, for four of the seven games, Yao) or did play but were horrible (Artest).

The Nuggets are in largely the same situation, with only two starters (Billups and Martin) with extended playoff runs to their names, and all other key contributors (Carmelo, J.R. Smith, Nene, the Birdman and Dahntay Jones) never having been past the first round, let alone to the conference finals, before this season. So if having seen and lived through all the dark nights the playoffs can throw your way is so crucial to winning a title, not only should that not be a problem for the Lakers, they should have already finished destroying their greenhorn opponents and be waiting for the Orlando Magic to arrive at Staples.

(Dwight Howard, by the way, is all of 23.)

I've been picking on Mark Heisler in this piece, which isn't really my goal. I like Heisler, I think he's one of the better NBA writers in print or elsewhere, and I know he just had an off-day this time. But I am trying to take the air out of a misbegotten narrative before it continues to fester and becomes a dominant, Network-Approved Talking Point that none of us can escape.

* * * * *

Oh, look - there was a game last night! Don't worry, I was gonna get to it eventually. Game Five had 93 possessions per team and can be summed up like this:

	TO Rate	FTA/FGA	FT%	EFG%	TS%	Off Reb%	Def Reb%	PPP
Denver	17%	0.36	77	43	49	33	70	1.01
Los Angeles	17%	0.46	74	51	56	30	67	1.11

The Nuggies chucked this one because they turned the ball over way too much and absolutely could not make a basket in the second half. They're still doing some good work, though, on the offensive boards. Pau and Lamar, with fine help from Kobe and Luke, kept Denver from totally running wild on the glass, but there's still room for Laker improvement there.

The Lakers shot about as well last night as they have at any point this year against the Nuggets, which is mostly an indirect way of saying they typically shoot horribly against this team. When one of your best shooting nights includes a 3-for-16 mark from the three-point line, you've got some work to do. Sasha (1 for 2) is tired of being the only decent shooter in a Laker uniform, damn it!

You know what makes me happy in life? When the Lakers rack up 25 assists on 37 made figgies. A little of that is home-cooking courtesy of the official scorer, but only a little. The Triangle was clicking last night, with those sharp interior passes that make me smile. See, Lakers? I don't ask for much.

And now, your human stat-bombs from Game Five:

J.R. Smith: 13 shooting possessions (SPs) to generate only seven points. As I wrote after Game Four, "I'm very OK with Denver trying to win two more games by routing 20% of its offense through him." I'm still very OK with it. He's cracked 0.80 points per SP only once in this series.
For all the crap we've piled onto the Laker reserves in recent weeks, they deserve a round of applause for some very solid toil last night. Check the plus/minus numbers: Odom at +18, Brown at +13, and Walton at +8. Meanwhile: Kleiza at -8, my man J.R. at -13 and Andersen at -17. You weren't able to see it, but I flapped my wings in a mocking, ironic gesture after typing that last sentence.
Pau almost never has a bad game. Only twice in the last 12 has he failed to hit at least a point per SP, and he's averaging 1.33 points per SP in this series. And he had 10 boards, five blocks and four assists as well last night. I'm honestly not sure that we appreciate him enough. Maybe we invite him over for pizza and Rock Band when the season's done?

Series numbers through five games are below. I'll see y'all Friday night! This isn't the Official SS&R Prediction or anything, but I personally have little doubt that I'll also be seeing you on Sunday.

	Poss./G	TO%	FTA/FGA	FT%	EFG%	TS%	Off Reb%	Def Reb%	PPP
Denver	94	13	0.45	76	47	53	32	71	1.11
L.A.	94	15	0.44	74	49	54	29	68	1.10

Lakers Look to Rebound in Game 5

Josh Tucker — Wed, 27 May 2009 10:14:07 -0000

Games 4 and 5: So predictable, they might as well be played with an 8-ball.

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Game 4 was disappointingly predictable. The Nuggets were in a must-win situation; the Lakers were not. The Nuggets played hard; the Lakers did not. Both frustrating and comforting at the same time was the knowledge that L.A. did not play their best in the lopsided loss to Denver – frustrating, because we wish they would; comforting, because we know they can do better.

As usual, the Lakers primary struggles in Denver were not in areas of skill or ability. Those who would claim that Game 4 proved the Nuggets to be the better team have yet to understand these Lakers. Instead, the Lakers primary struggles were rooted, as always, in motivation and effort. Of the former, they had little; of the latter, they gave even less. They were tired – understandably so, though they have only themselves to blame – and given the circumstances, they decided it wasn't worth the effort.

Game 5 should be equally predictable. As they have after every loss, the Lakers will come out with energy and intensity, playing well on both ends of the court. As tired and apathetic as they were in the previous game, they will be equally engaged and driven in the game to come.

That the Lakers will come to play in Game 5 should be a given. But how should their renewed energy be applied, in order for the Lakers to maintain control of the series? Simple: In areas that are fully under a team's control, requiring little more than effort itself to deliver a strong performance.

These also happen to be the areas in which the listless Lakers of Game 4 failed completely: defense and rebounding. If they play with intensity to control these two aspects of the game, the rest will fall into place, and the result will be a Lakers win.

If you've been paying attention at all, you know how poorly the Lakers performed on defense and on the glass in Game 4. Here's a quick refresher:

It was about effort. And for the full story, look no further than the rebounding columns in the box score – the Nuggets were +11 in offensive rebounds, and +18 in total rebounds.

Off Reb Def Reb Total Reb Off Reb Rate Def Reb Rate

Lakers 9 31 40 23% 61%

Nuggets 20 38 58 77% 39%

By themselves, these numbers already speak volumes to the Lakers' Game 4 performance. Considering that the Lakers have the distinct height advantage should make it even clearer that L.A. simply got out-hustled on Monday. But what really puts this into perspective is the teams' recent history.

In the first two games of the series, the Lakers rebounded a stellar 35% of their own misses.
By contrast, Denver was only able to get to 30% of their own misses in the first two games.
In the regular season, the Lakers also rebounded at a rate of 35% on offense.
On defense, however, they tracked down an impressive 78% of Denver's misses, holding Denver to a 22% offensive rebounding rate.

Compare that with the numbers from Game 4, above, and you see the problem. This is a team that has no business even matching the Lakers in rebounding, on either end of the court. On Monday, they didn't just match the Lakers on the boards – they destroyed them. Their 20 offensive rebounds, in particular, resulted in 23 second-chance points – easily the biggest difference in the game.

The Lakers' bigs need to man up. This isn't just about hitting the double-digit mark in the rebounds column; this is about preventing Kenyon Martin, Chris Andersen, and Nene from totaling 42 rebounds between the three of them. It's about giving the Nuggets one shot on offense (preferably a contested one), and only one.

The Lakers perimeter players may need to step up some, as well. While they may prefer to leak out for early, quick offense, that offense won't materialize if the Nuggets are busy collecting offensive rebounds and taking second and third shots. As a team, the Lakers need to play a brand of defense conducive to solid rebounding. Gambling on steals must be kept to a minimum; the Lakers must play for defensive position, keeping Denver out of the paint, forcing contested jumpshots, and cleaning the glass when they miss.

And for God's sake, someone pick up Andersen! You want to talk predictability? "The Birdman" has one thing on his mind; everyone already knows what he's going to do. To leave him unattended once the shot goes up is essentially to hand him a second chance opportunity.

Defensively, the Nuggets' front line deserves greater emphasis. Offensively talented they are not, but as we've just seen, that changes when they're collecting absurd amounts of offensive rebounds. The Lakers need to pack it in, challenging the Nuggets to beat them from outside. Billups may hit some mid-range jumpshots, and Anthony may hit some threes, but in the end, this is far preferable to the alternative of the Nuggets dominating the boards and scoring heavily in the paint. Placing greater defensive emphasis on Denver's front line, while packing it in and defending the paint, will not only force Denver to hit tougher shots, but will also contribute to the aforementioned goal of winning the rebounding battle.

As far as matchups, I want to see more of Luke Walton on Carmelo Anthony, and Kobe Bryant on Chauncey Billups. In the latter matchup, Kobe has unquestionably had the upper hand. Billups has been good, and has hit some key shots, but he has also been consistently inefficient throughout the series. As for the Walton-Melo matchup, I must admit it completely puzzles me. Walton isn't one of tremendous foot speed, and he's not normally known for his defense. Nonetheless, while no single player should expect to completely shut Carmelo down, Walton has had tremendous success defending him, both in the regular season and in the playoffs. While the officials seemed already to have decided that Walton couldn't guard Anthony late in Game 4, and were expecting the foul well before it happened, I don't expect that trend to continue in Los Angeles, so Luke should get some good minutes on Melo.

Speaking of officiating, I expect the series to balance out once again (unfortunate though it may be, idealistically speaking). In the playoffs, the Lakers's opponents have taken more free throws in nine of 16 games. In this series, Denver has had the free throw shooting edge in three out of four games. In the first three games, the team that seemed to get the short end of the officiating stick in the first half received more favorable calls in the second half, and particularly in the fourth quarter – but in Game 4, that balancing effect never happened.

As always, I raise these points not as a matter of complaint, or to provide an excuse for any of the Lakers' losses, but as a simple matter of observation and expectation heading into the next game. These things do tend to balance out, and a part of me suspects that to be more than just the natural ebb and flow of a series. Phil Jackson has made his protests clear and driven home his point regarding the officiating, both in the middle of Game 4 and after it, and I expect that he will get his way in Game 5. In Staples Center, after the Nuggets shot 49 free throws in the previous game, and in light of the numerous less-than-sportsmanlike displays by various Nuggets throughout the game, expect the whistle to be less of a hindrance to the Lakers in tonight's game.

In the end, this isn't about which team is better. If anything, it might be impossible to judge such a thing, simply because of the manner in which each team applies its talent. Furthermore, it is unclear as to whether we will ever see both of these teams playing at their best against each other. Game 5 will be decided by effort – namely, the effort put forth by the Lakers. For Los Angeles, this effort must begin with defense and rebounding.

Lakers-Nugs Game 3: Tempo-Free Boxscore Breakdown

DexterFishmore — Sun, 24 May 2009 20:30:12 -0000

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Many of the problems that NBA teams face boil down to an allocation of scarce resources. On Friday, I wrote about the importance of intelligently dividing up the 240 minutes of playing time you get each game. That's one example. Another is the salary cap: what's the best way to allocate a limited payroll among 15 roster spots (plus, if you're the New York Knicks, Stephon Marbury and who knows how many other legacy mistakes still on the books from the Isiah Thomas era)? A third example - and the one that's on my mind after the Lakers' victory last night - looks at how a team allocates its shooting possessions among its various players on a given night.

(I suspect that most of you know what I mean by "shooting possession," but just in case: the term encompasses official field goal attempts plus any time a player goes to the line to shoot two free throws. The latter occasions - such as when a player draws a shooting foul, but the shot doesn't go in, or a nonshooting foul when the team is in the penalty - don't show up as FGAs in the boxscore but nonetheless use possessions, so we include them to get a full, accurate measure of scoring efficiency.)

I know I'm getting a bit wonky here, but bear with me.

In any given game, a team's total shooting possessions aren't fixed - the way playing time is, for example, at 240 minutes - but they're finite. A team will generally average one "look at the basket" each time it has the ball. A miss and an offensive rebound will give you more than one, and a turnover will get you less than one, but it roughly works out to one shooting possession per team offensive possession.

In simple terms: you're only getting so many shots before the final buzzer sounds, so a coach and his players have to figure out who's taking them, and when.

All of which brings me back to Game Three, and in particular the fourth quarter. To put the importance of those final 12 minutes in perspective, I present to you points per possession (PPP) from last night's game, broken down by period:

	1st Q	2nd Q	3rd Q	4th Q
Los Angeles	1.04	0.92	1.00	1.45
Denver	1.08	1.00	1.17	0.78

The Nuggets outplayed the Lakers for the first 75% of the game, and then saw everything fall apart. On offense they sank to sub-Clippersian depths. On defense they couldn't get stops. If special teams existed in basketball, they would have sucked at those too.

I argue that we can glean insight into the fateful fourth quarter by comparing how the two teams allocated their precious final looks at the basket. First, the Lakers:

Player	Shooting Possessions
Bryant	8
Gasol	6
Odom	4
Ariza	3
Total	21

That's it. Only four Lakers took shots in the final period, and they were the team's four best scoring options. And by far the best option used almost 40% of the possessions. For all of the grief that we've heaped on Phil Jackson during these playoffs, and I myself have been doing a lot of the heaping, he deserves credit here. In the fourth quarter, the Laker offense played with purpose, smarts and discipline.

To see what an offense looks like without those qualities, check out how the Nuggets chopped up their SPs in the fourth:

Player	Shooting Possessions
Billups	6
Smith	6
Anthony	4
Martin	4
Andersen	2
Kleiza	2
Nene	1
Total	25

Seven different players took shots. Nearly 25% of the looks were routed to J.R. Smith, who entered the quarter with a 35% True Shooting mark for the series. The Nuggets' best offensive option, Carmelo Anthony, got only 16% of the looks. Some of this resulted from foul trouble, but that's much not an excuse. Melo didn't foul out until there was less than a minute left to play.

Winning basketball is thoughtful basketball. By the time the fourth quarter rolls around, you should have a coherent theory of offense: who's getting clean looks, who has the good matchup, where your points are coming from. How the Nuggets played the fourth quarter last night was the opposite of that: haphazard, intellectually lazy and lacking in strategy and discipline. We've seen it before from the Lakers, and no doubt we'll see it again, but in Game Three they were the smarter team and won because of it.

The full Game Three numbers are next. Jumpy jumpy!

There were 95 possessions per team last night, and people, please take a moment to appreciate the pace of play we enjoy here out west. Cavalier games are almost always in the 80-possession range, and not often at the high end of that range either. The Eastern Finals have been great so far, but they do play some slow-ass basketball in that conference.

The digits from Game Three:

	TO Rate	FTA/FGA	FT%	EFG%	TS%	Off Reb%	Def Reb%	PPP
Los Angeles	14	0.63	69	50	56	22	75	1.08
Denver	12	0.37	84	42	50	25	78	1.02

Schnikeys! Check out the Lakers' ratio of free-throw attempts to field-goal attempts: nearly an insane 2 to 3. I make it a policy never to complain about whistles going against my team. Not that I think NBA refs do a good job - they're obviously a complete disaster - but I figure that if I don't bitch about not getting calls, I don't have to apologize when something like the above happens. Trust me, that all somehow makes sense in my head.

The other elephant in the room is the Nuggets' three-point "accuracy," which last night collapsed to below 20%, on 27 attempts. They won't be that bad again (I think), but that doesn't mean it's a good idea for them to take almost a third of their FGAs from distance. During the regular season, only about 23% of their field-goal attempts were threes, so it's not like they're running a scheme designed to generate long balls in great quantity.

One troubling stat for the Lakers: only 15 assists on 33 made figgies. The Triangle, it seems, has broken down in this series. The offensive attack has held up because none of the Denver big men can handle Pau when he gets good post position - and nobody in a Nuggie uniform can handle Kobe anywhere on the court - but that crisp cutting and dishing that we love to see just hasn't been there, at least not since the first quarter of Game Two.

Time for stat-bombage, starring Sasha Vujacic in Brickwatch 2009:

Sasha missed three of four FGAs, and his TS% for the series went up. Because the Lakers won, we get to laugh about this.
Anthony Carter, my new favorite Nugget, is scoreless in 36 minutes of play in this series. Time to get a pool going: how many total minutes will he have played before he scores his first point? Post your guess in the comments - winner gets a free, one month platinum subscription to SS&R. No purchase necessary, but before entering please note that prize does not actually exist.
Trevor Ariza: 16 points on 10 SPs, 2 assists, 4 rebounds, 2 steals, 1 block and only 1 turnover. I know a lot of you will disagree with me about this, but I'm beginning to think the Lakers got the better end of the Ariza-for-Evans-and-Cook deal.
Derek Fisher played 26 minutes, or put another way: somewhere between 20 and 26 minutes too many.

Before I leave you with the composite series numbers below, a word about Kobe. He scored 41 points on 30 SPs, with 5 assists, 6 boards, 2 steals, only 1 turnover and some great defense that forced Chauncey Billups into a substandard game. He's now at 63% True Shooting for the series. You don't need me to tell you that this is beyond awesome. Suffice it to say that we're watching one of the best players in the history of the game, at something like the height of his powers. Enjoy it. Seriously - don't let the stress of these games drain away the pleasure of watching him perform at this level. It won't last forever, and we're not likely to see another one like him in our lifetime.

	Avg Poss	TO%	FTA/FGA	FT%	EFG%	TS%	Off Reb%	Def Reb%	PPP
Den.	95	14	0.43	76	48	54	28	69	1.07
L.A.	95	16	0.44	75	49	55	31	72	1.09

Lakers vs. Nuggets: A WCF Round Table Preview

Josh Tucker — Tue, 19 May 2009 20:32:33 -0000

For the first time in these playoffs, predictions are mixed when it comes to the Lakers. Some say Lakers in 7, some as few as 5; others (including our own Timbo) say Nuggets in 6. The Lakers are the better team; the Nuggets, so far, are playing like the better team. The Lakers have the greater potential; the Nuggets are fulfilling more of their potential.

Even those of us who choose the Lakers to win this series will have to admit that we no longer feel confident predicting what the Lakers will do. And we recognize that in doing so anyways, we might invite a few of our own up close encounters with flying fast food. But that's what we ~~get paid to~~ do, so we'll do our best to give you a decent sense of what to expect heading into this series.

As we did yesterday to recap the Lakers' second round win over the Rockets, the SS&R authors weigh in for a Round Table Series Preview of the Western Conference Finals, featuring our own Lakers versus the Denver Nuggets.

Wild Yams

I think many are predicting this will be a very tough series for LA, and some probably think the Lakers might even be the underdogs; but I think that's a mistake to think that way. Houston had something the Nuggets do not, namely people who can guard Kobe. This will be Kobe's easiest matchup so far in the playoffs, as he'll be squared off against Dahntay Jones and JR Smith, both of whom are really too small to guard Kobe. Chauncey Billups has had a great playoff run so far, but he won't be able to bully Derek Fisher around the way he did Chris Paul and JJ Barrea. Because of the size and strength of Billups and backup PG Anthony Carter, I look for Farmar to get a decreased role again as the Lakers look more to a combination of Fisher and Brown, the way they did against Utah. Carmelo Anthony has also looked great in these playoffs, but for whatever reason Luke Walton has seemed to be his kryptonite in the past, and combined with Trevor Ariza I think that will be by far the toughest challenge he's faced so far. Then you have Nene, Kenyon Martin and The Birdman, Chris Andersen, who will try to match up with the size of Bynum, Gasol and Odom, and I think that matchup ultimately favors LA. It's going to be a tough fought match, and it's going to be extremely exciting; but the Lakers have owned Denver's number lately, winning 10 of the last 11 meetings (including going 4-0 in last year's playoffs), and I don't expect that to change so drastically in this series as to tilt things in Denver's favor.

Lakers in 6.

Ryebreadraz

While Denver is playing excellent basketball right now and the Lakers needed seven to take down an undermanned Rockets squad, I don't think LA will have too much trouble with the Nuggets. Basketball is more of a matchup game than most believe and the matchup with Denver is far more favorable for the Lakers than the matchup with Houston was.

The most glaring mismatch that favors the Lakers is Kobe vs. whoever Denver chooses to play at shooting guard. Houston had a pair of excellent bodies to throw at Kobe that made him work extremely hard for his points. Kobe should be able to score plenty against Denver and the Nuggets also tend to foul him a lot so he won't have to work overly hard for his points. The Nuggets front line is one of the team's strengths, but they're not an overly skilled front line. They rely on their athleticism and energy mostly, which should keep them from making too much of an offensive impact that could get the Lakers in foul trouble.

Denver isn't an easy place to play and Chauncey Billups is the best point guard left in the playoffs. He's a clutch player who will have a few huge games this series that should net the Nuggets a pair of wins, but those will be their only wins of the series.

Lakers in 6.

DexterFishmore

After Game Six of the Houston series, I was ready to predict a Denver upset in the conference finals. The Nuggets have been that impressive, and the Lakers at times that bad. But in Game Seven I saw just enough of Classic Bynum to believe that he can be a force in this series. And for Denver, transitioning from New Orleans and Dallas to the Lakers is a massive jump up in competition, and as they haven’t played since May 13th, I don’t think they’ll be able to adjust right away. This will be a competitive series with more close games than not, but home-court advantage will be the difference.

Lakers in 7.

Sideout11

This prediction comes with a caveat, becuase I believe that this series will end in 6 either way. I am hoping that it is the Lakers that win, but I will take the Nuggets in 6 before I take the Lakers in 7. It just seems like this will be a series where once a team gets an edge, they will put the pedal to the metal. As talented as they are, Denver is a much better match-up for us than Houston was. While their defense is much improved and probably more consistent than the Lakers' is, Denver still likes to push the ball and score a lot (Billups loves to get a quick shot in transition). And if the Nuggets like to run, then the Lakers love to, so I see a high scoring affair playing right into the Lakers hands. The biggest question for me is which Denver team shows up, this year's or last year's? The Nuggets have yet to face a real challange, and if they find themsleves down by 10 in Game 4 with the Lakers leading 2-1, will they remained poised like their new floor general, or will the give up and turn to fighting and wild shots like last year? The Lakers are obviously a team with poise, so if the Nuggets lose theirs, then this series will be over in a hurry. Look for Kobe to score a lot, and hopefully the team will play some defense as well. Do I think that the Lakers will remember all the lessons fromthe Houston series? No. But hopefully they will have learned enough to advance to the Finals.

Lakers in 6.

FryingDutchman

As the Houston series proved, predicting a series involving the Lakers is about as easy as taking an exam for a undisclosed subject. No matter how much knowledge you have, you might fail because you just don't know what to expect. Think about all the possible outcomes to this series, from a Nuggets sweep to a Lakers sweep. How many of those possibilities can you rule out? If the Game 4 Lakers show up (or should we say, don't show up) once or twice, especially in the first two home games, are you really willing to rule out a nuggets sweep? If the Game 5 Lakers show up every game, a Lakers sweep is guaranteed. Neither scenario is likely, but at this point I can't rule either one out.

Part of me wants to say this goes to the Lakers in 5. I think the Lakers have much better matchups against Denver than against the Rockets. I think the Lakers have better answers for Chauncey and Melo than the Nugs have for Kobe and Pau. I think that all the publicity Denver's playoff success has garnered compared to the Lakers struggle will see a motivated Laker team come out in Game 1. Also, there is no possibility of rust, which is what helped put the team behind the 8 ball in the last series. I think that the Lakers have faced a much stronger test than Denver has so far this postseason. I think I just like predicting 5 game Laker victories. It's easy to see a motivated Lakers team come out strong and win the first two home games, lose game 3, respond with their normal "You can't beat us twice in a row" effort in game 4, and close things out at home in game 5.

So why not go with that? Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. I'm unwilling to bank on a determined Lakers effort for any more than 1 game in a row. I think the Lakers will take Game 1, and if they do, I don't think they lose the series. But I also don't think they will close it out in a strong fashion until they have to.

Silver Screen & Roll

For starters, you can read some of my thoughts on this series in my series preview for Ball Don't Lie. By now, you've heard me point out that while the Lakers still have a ways to go, they have undeniably improved significantly since the first round. So what I want to focus on right now is what I touched on briefly at BDL:

I’m also not convinced that Denver matches up well with L.A. They don’t do the things that cause the Lakers to struggle — in fact, their game tends to feed into what the Lakers want to do. And it all starts with running.

Denver loves to run. The thing is, so do the Lakers. And it’s not just because they score easy baskets or tire the other team out — those are the typical, cliché reasons for being a fast-paced team. For the Lakers, it’s more than that. Against the Lakers, your best shot is to take Kobe’s teammates out of the game and make him beat you by himself. And believe me, he can definitely do that — but at least there’s a chance that his shots don’t go down. But if the entire team gets involved and gets rolling, there’s just no stopping the Lakers.

The Lakers are also much easier to beat if you can convince them not to play defense. And here’s the thing about this squad: Unlike most, it is their offense that creates their defense. When things are clicking offensively, the entire team gets involved and active on defense.

When teams let the Lakers run, it creates easy opportunities across the board, gets all players involved, and generally increases the energy and involvement of the entire team. Most importantly, it fuels them defensively — and when the role players are contributing and the team is playing defense, this team is virtually impossible to beat.

Of course, the matchups seem to favor Los Angeles, as well. Most glaringly, Houston had what no one in the league has: two premier perimeter defenders that can make life hard for Kobe. Denver doesn’t even have one. Meanwhile, Carmelo Anthony has struggled against the Lakers, and while it’s not something I’m willing to bet my life savings on, it shouldn’t be overlooked. Nene, also, has struggled against Bynum, and Pau Gasol has a clear length advantage over Kenyon Martin. Really, the only matchup I see strongly favoring the Nuggets is the point guard, and I’m intrigued to see how Shannon Brown does defending him — he’s got the size, strength, and speed, and he’s a very good defender. But will Phil Jackosn play him?

I can't emphasize enough how well the running game plays into the Lakers hands. Usually, when pace is mentioned it is because one team prefers to play slow, and the other fast, which means that whoever can control the pace can control the game. In this case, both teams like to play fast, but it's not the pace of the game itself that really matters here. It's the effect of playing at a high pace.

There are three ways to beat the Lakers, and your best shot is to try and cause all three things to happen.

Get them to play disinterested, low-intensity basketball. When they're not fully engaged, playing with intensity, their defense goes out the window and their offense becomes an endless barrage of jumpshots. But if the Lakers are engaged, playing with intensity, you've got problems.
Convince them not to play defense. You'll still have to deal with their offense, but if they're playing great defense, they're virtually unbeatable. Get them to skip the defensive effort, and you've got a shot.
Take the "rest of the team" out of the game. Kobe Bryant is incredible, and he can beat you all by himself – but that becomes harder agianst good teams in the playoffs, and this team's strength is in its depth of talent. If the role players and bench mob are involved, hitting shots and creating plays, then you're screwed, because when they play like that, they can beat you without Kobe. Add Kobe to that mix, and it's game over.

It's not always possible to do all of the above. For that matter, it's not always possible to do any of the above. Much of it depends on the Lakers – did they come to play? Are they running the offense, giving the effort on defense? If so, there may not be much you can do. But what you can do is do the things that make it more likely for the Lakers to take themselves out of the game – and, conversely, not do the things that get them into it.

Unfortunately for the Nuggets, running is the number one thing that gets the Lakers into the game. It often involves Kobe passing, other players making great plays, and role players finishing. Most of all, it builds energy. And as some have pointed out here at SS&R, the Lakers' defense is fueled by their offense (as opposed to most other teams, which are the other way around).

Getting easy offense on the run builds energy, fuels the defense, and gets the entire team involved and engaged. All of the things the Lakers' opponents don't want to happen.

Let's talk more about Kobe. Houston had not one, but two first class perimeter defenders that could make life difficult for Kobe. How did that go for them? He averaged 27.4 points per game while shooting .453 from the field and .344 from distance, along with 5 rebounds, 4.1 assists, 2 steals, and only 1.57 turnovers. We've seen him better, but he didn't exactly struggle.

Now consider that the Nuggets don't even have one perimeter defender that can make Kobe's life difficult, and this prediction is easy. The WCF should be Kobe's best series to date, and his easiest. And what if, as I've suggested, the rest of the team is involved, playing with energy and intesity, getting out on the break and hitting shots? Then you've got even less room to throw extra help at Bryant – meaning he's going to have a field day.

The big men are really the X-Factors here. Nene tends to struggle against Bynum, but aside from a couple good showings, Bynum hasn't been himself lately. Kenyon Martin and Chris "Birdman" Andersen might be able to play physical enough defense to bother Pau Gasol, but if Gasol can respond with some mental toughness and resiliency, he's got the length and agility to get the best of that matchup. On the other end of the court, the Nuggets' front line isn't exactly an offensive force in the paint. If Gasol and Bynum are active on defense, their length and quickness will be a nightmare for the Nuggets' bigs.

Still, all of this depends on which Gasol and Bynum show up. If they pull a disappearing act, the Nuggets play with high energy and will take advantage of them. But if they come to play, the matchup is theirs to exploit.

At the point guard, I'm hoping to see more of Shannon Brown. Billups is one of the best at that position, and knows how to win in the playoffs. I like Fisher in this series more than in the last one, because it's not about quick guard penetration. Chauncey can get into the paint when he wants, but his strengths are his size and strength, and his ability to hit the 3-ball. Fisher's size and strength will help him against Billups, but more significantly, Shannon "UPS" Brown also has the required size and strength, and he's also got something Fisher has lost: speed and lateral quickness. I'm not at all confident in Phil Jackson's point guard rotations, but I'm really hoping Brown gets a real chance at guarding Billups.

Again, though, this matchup may actually depend on the Lakers' bigs. Lakers fans remember that Chauncey has beat us in the past, and some may not be that confident in Fisher's ability to defend him. But that's misplaced blame from the 2004 Finals. Billups had his way not because Fisher couldn't keep up, but because Shaq wouldn't defend the pick and roll. His own words, to Baron Davis at the end of last season:

"The Lakers' weakness was pick-and-roll defense, so we were going to make them stop that," [Billups] says. "It didn't matter who was guarding me; my job was to pick-and-roll Shaq. Every series has its own version of that. And if we have to run it every time, we run it every time."

If the Lakers' bigs don't help on the pick and roll, Laker fans may be in for a dreadfully familiar sight. But if Gasol and Bynum play the pick and roll the way they did in Game 7 against Houston, Fisher and Brown should be able to handle him on the perimeter, and we'll be off to a good start defensively.

Carmelo Anthony is the matchup that puzzles me. He has really struggled against the Lakers – even with the likes of Luke Walton guarding him. On the one hand, I don't feel at all confident predicting that such a trend will continue. On the other, it's almost too hard to ignore. Look for the Lakers to continue what they've been doing against him – if they can take him out of the game, the Nuggets will be hard pressed to keep up with our Lakers.

It comes down to the same old things: Energy and effort, defensive intensity, and the matchups of the bigs and smalls. Overall, I think the Nuggets are a better team than the Rockets, but I don't think they matchup well with the Lakers. Their game isn't designed to take the Lakers out of their game; quite the opposite. And if the Lakers can play their game, and do so with energy and passion, I really do believe they're nearly impossible to beat.

Lakers in 7.

Expect Nugs To Put Up Fight, Fall Short

Steve Weinman — Tue, 19 May 2009 11:13:27 -0000

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A Daily Babble Production

Western Conference Finals: (1) Los Angeles Lakers vs. (2) Denver Nuggets

By the Numbers	W-L	Reg Season Off. Eff.(Rk)	RS DE (Rk)	Playoff OE (Rk)	Playoff DE (Rk)
Denver Nuggets	54-28	110.4 (7)	106.8 (8)	118.5 (1)	101.3 (4)
LA Lakers	65-17	112.8 (3)	104.7 (6)	108.1 (4)	99.2 (3)

When the 2009 Western Conference Finals begin tonight at the Staples Center, they will include a team that I predicted would miss the playoffs back at season's start.

Seems like as good a time as ever for my Denver Nuggets-related mea culpa: In short, I said the Nuggets wouldn't be able to defend well after the loss of Marcus Camby and that they had too many knuckleheads to be effective in the long term, no matter how much offensive firepower those knuckleheads provided.

In fairness to me, the Nuggets made a drastic change to alter the course of their season in trading Allen Iverson for Chauncey Billups three games into the season. But I still can't claim to have really comprehended at the time just how much of a difference the removal of one distraction and addition of the 2004 Finals MVP would make.

Billups returned to his hometown team and immediately took over as its leader. The results were mind-blowing: Between the insertions of a defensive-minded point guard and the contributions of back-from-cancer center Nene Hilario, the Nuggets didn't miss a beat defensively, finishing eighth in defensive efficiency during the regular season. It didn't hurt that with Billups setting the tone, Carmelo Anthony played with more intensity than ever before at that end. Kenyon Martin and free agent signee Chris Andersen added rugged play on the interior as well, and Dahntay Jones helped out on the perimeter.

At the offensive end, the Nuggets continued to do plenty of running (sixth in the league in pace) and plenty of scoring (seventh in offensive efficiency). It really is amazing just how much it means to have a sound decision-maker controlling the basketball. Billups kept the ball moving and made sure Melo, Nene, J.R. Smith and others got their touches and buckets while making his share of big shots as well.

Credit George Karl for keeping his players on the same page all season and managing to make it through a year with Melo, Smith, Martin and Andersen with surprisingly few distractions. Credit Billups for reshaping this team's personality, and score one for Mark Warkentien in the front office for pulling the trigger on the deal that brought him to town. Finally, credit the rest of the crew for buying in throughout the season.

So that's my long-belated bit of lovin' for this Nuggets team. The Nugs have earned it with a 54-win regular season, consistent effort at both ends of the floor and two rounds of playoff performances in which they absolutely dismantled New Orleans and Dallas.

But it seems to me that their pleasant surprise of a season has no more than two weeks remaining.

The Nuggets enter this series with one distinct advantage over the Western Conference's top-seeded Los Angeles Lakers: point guard play.

Billups has been without question the class of the league's point guard crop in these playoffs. Not only is he leading a Nuggets offense that is scoring six more points per 100 possessions than the next closest unit (Cleveland) in the postseason, not only is he averaging 22.8 points and 7.3 assists per game, but he is getting his points on insane 71.6 percent true shooting. Billups is getting to the foul line (6.9 attempts per game in the playoffs), bombing from the outside (a bonkers 33-for-61 so far), doing just about whatever he wants with the ball and playing defense as well. Derek Fisher is not an answer to this guy. Jordan Farmar is not an answer to this guy. Shannon Brown, if he is still collecting some minutes as de facto point, is not an answer to this guy. Note the pattern here, please.

Bench play could be a second edge for Denver depending on what goes on in the pivot for the Lakers. J.R. Smith gets on the floor to do one thing - shoot the rock - and does that one thing quite well: After posting a 57.6 percent true shooting mark during the season, he has upped that to 61 percent in the playoffs, shooting the three-pointer at a clip better than 40 percent while pouring in 16.3 points per game. Smith is a threat to score anytime he touches the ball inside halfcourt, and he will require a ton of defensive attention. Meanwhile, Chris Andersen has continued his revival campaign in the postseason, blocking shots (averaging nearly two in 21 minutes per game for the playoffs), cleaning the glass and engaging in copious amounts of dunking and wing-flapping. The Birdman's energy continues to play an important role for the Nugs.

But that edge could be mitigated if Lakers center Andrew Bynum is able to pick up where he left off in Game 7 of the purple and gold's semifinal series against Houston. Playing against the Rockets' undersized front line, Bynum feasted on lobs and putbacks to notch his best game of the playoffs, a 6-for-7 outing for 14 points. He totaled 28 points on 11-for-13 shooting in the Lakers' wins in games five and seven (with an oh-for in between), and if he can continue to stay in the lineup, the Lakers will have the luxury of bringing Lamar Odom off the bench. While Odom didn't enjoy the same success against the Rockets that he did in the first round against the Jazz, the lanky forward continued to make his presence felt on the glass, block shots inside and score efficiently from the field.

This brings us to the issue of the front lines. While Martin and Nene have done admirable work all season for the Nugs, they don't have the talent or the size to match-up with the trio of Odom, Bynum and most of all Pau Gasol if the former two are playing good basketball. Martin plays a physical game, but at 6-foot-9 he doesn't have the size to match up with 7-foot Gasol if Nene is occupied with Bynum. For all the questions about his own toughness, Gasol remains one of the most effective big men in the game. He can knock down shots from mid-range, screen and roll, post up or pound the offensive glass, and his passing vision is excellent. He should prove too much for Martin or Nene, and I'm not sure the Birdman is strong enough to stop him. The Lakers also ranked third in the league in the regular season and currently rank third in the postseason in offensive rebound rate, while the Nuggets sat 23rd in defensive rebound rate. Expect the Lakers to create and convert on second chances throughout the series.

As for the swing spots, Carmelo Anthony has done a better job of playing defense and avoiding off-court trouble than I expected coming into the year, and his offensive talents need no introduction. But neither do those of the scoring star on the other side. Kobe Bryant still has the edge on Anthony at both ends of the floor, and the Lakers also get the nod on the secondary swing player likely to guard the other team's top scorer. Trevor Ariza offered more scoring on higher efficiency than Dahntay Jones did during the season, and despite not demonstrating impressive three-point marksmanship over the breadth of his career, he has been off the charts in the playoffs: Ariza has hit 20 of 40 threes and is posting a 65.4 percent true shooting figure while averaging nearly 11 points per game. Ariza and Jones are both capable defenders (Jones' cross-matching onto Chris Paul played a crucial role in the Nuggets' first-round win), but Ariza makes his man expend more energy at the other end of the floor. Further, Bryant heads into this series knowing that his toughest individual offensive assignment is behind him. No matter how well Jones performs, it's hard to imagine that he will be able to challenge Bryant the way fellow former Dukie Shane Battier does (and Battier has Ron Artest around to help him out these days).

Yes, the Lakers got a scare from a depleted Rockets team while the Nuggets cruised in the second round. But I can think of another top seed in recent memory that had to win a couple of early-round seventh games, and that one turned out no worse for the wear in later stages of the playoffs. The Nuggets have had a fine season and have the tools to make this a great series. But they are also outmatched at the swing spots, on the front line and - even if some say Phil Jackson shows signs of losing his touch - in the coach's box.

The Lakers will prove to be a bit too much.

The pick: Lakers in six

	Off Reb	Def Reb	Total Reb	Off Reb Rate	Def Reb Rate
Lakers	9	31	40	23%	61%
Nuggets	20	38	58	77%	39%