SB Nation - Adonal Foyle

6. The Warriors will play these players tonight - Monta Ellis, Stephen Curry, Corey Maggette, Chris Hunter, Mikki Moore, C.J. Watson, and Vladimir Radmonovich.

7. Mickael Pietrus was one of the most fun Warriors players. (See Below)

8. The Warriors are in desperate need of some magic "health" potions.

9. Mickael Pietrus, Matt Barnes, and Adonal Foyle will all get standing ovations when they step on the court (if they do).

10. This guy (pictured below) will Superman the Warriors.

FICTION

1. The Warriors will win tonight. (That is all...)

Poll

Who is your favorite ex-Warrior on the Magic?

J.J. Redick: Seven Questions for Number Seven on the Orlando Magic

erivera7 — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 12:00:50 -0000

More photos » by Phelan M. Ebenhack - AP

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A hard worker, a professional, a rapper.

Okay, maybe the last designation is a bit much (funny, nonetheless), but the first two labels are accurate descriptions of J.J. Redick, an individual for the Orlando Magic that has worked his tail off to be in the position that he is today.

Whether it's been on the practice court or in the weight room, Redick has paid his dues after the past couple of years. Although one looks at his fellow peers from the 2006 NBA Draft, players like Adam Morrison, Shelden Williams, Patrick O'Bryant, and a bevy of others who have struggled to receive playing time or remain in the league, J.J. has remained relevant in the NBA and has become an integral role player on a championship-caliber team. It took a while, and general manager Otis Smith prescribed patience with Redick - who was frustrated with a lack of playing time in the past - as he attempted to break into the Magic's rotation, but here he is. Helping Orlando win.

Not bad.

When looking at the statistics, one has to be impressed with how efficient J.J. has performed on offense so far this season - TS% (60.5%), eFG% (56.6%), and an Offensive Rating of 123. All career-highs and excellent numbers. Granted, it's early but it's encouraging for Redick to see the stats one figured he would be producing when he left Duke University (likewise, it seemed possible he had the potential to do so this year).

Because he is contributing on defense, diversifying his game on offense, passing the ball without turning it over, and more, J.J. has turned into an asset for the Magic. More importantly, he's gained head coach Stan Van Gundy's trust over a period of time (see the 2009 NBA Playoffs).

The following transcript is a one-on-one conversation I had with J.J. Redick after practice was over yesterday, in which I asked him seven questions on a number of topics.

Click after the jump.

You're averaging career-highs across the board, how much does that mean to you to know that the hard work you've been putting in these past few years is paying off?

It feels good to be in the rotation. I think that's the most important thing for me is playing every night, doing my job contributing, whether I play 10 minutes or 30 minutes and I think I've done that just about every game. It's been a positive. I can't get too caught up in numbers, I mean, we're 18 games into the year so I'm not really worried about that but if anything, I look at shooting percentages. I don't care about points or anything. That's going to fluctuate throughout the season, that's just depends on minutes so if I'm shooting the ball well and contributing defensively and with passing and stuff, then I feel good about my game.

Have you seen a difference in terms of how defenders are guarding you? I know that you're taking it off the dribble more this year and trying to attack the basket, have you see a change in terms of how they're trying to approach you?

It's different every night. A lot of it has to do with just other team's schemes. I mean, a lot of stuff that I'm getting now is with pick and rolls and stuff and so every team is different, some teams show, some teams zone, some teams push the ball down the baseline. We generally talk about it before the game, what that team is going to do and then I know how to attack. If I'm in the game with Vince [Carter], obviously I'm not afforded as many opportunities, but when he's out of the game, lately I've been getting a lot of pick and rolls and even some plays called for me so I just look to be really aggressive. Going in, I have a good idea, a good sense of how I'm going to play.

When you go into the game, is there a role that you're trying to fulfill? Are you trying to score, trying to defend, trying to move the ball?

I'm trying to win. *laughs*

That's the most important thing to me. I really do think that ... actually, me and my dad were having a conversation last night, he's in town, and we were talking about different guys in the league, guys I've played with in the past, guys I've played with in college. I turned to him and said, 'Dad, do you know what's the hardest thing to do in the NBA is?' and he said, 'What?' and I said, 'Win.'

You can play for a bad team, you can score and put up numbers. It's hard to be on a good team because there's not many of them that win consistently. I think that's what I'm most proud of, that's what I try to do. I look at my plus/minus every night and I want it to be in the positives. I know that Stan [Van Gundy] looks at that, too. It's not the tell-all obviously because it depends on who you're playing against and who you're out there with, but I want my unit, whether I'm playing with [Marcin Gortat] and [Jason Williams] and Ryan Anderson or whether I'm playing with Rashard [Lewis] and Vince, I want that unit to win when I'm out there.

You talk about the numbers and I know that Stan is big with that. Does he try to give, whether it's Dwight [Howard], or you, or anybody else the numbers and tell you what you've been doing, what you can improve on, and such?

Yeah, in the past, yeah, we've discussed it. Two of our biggest focuses are always rebounding and turnovers. He kind of sets goals for everybody based on turnovers per minute, rebounds per minute, a lot of it depends on how much you have the ball in your hands, how much you play, and throughout the year he brings up those numbers in team meetings and yeah, we want to reach those goals.

You talk about winning, you've dealt with injuries, illnesses, suspensions, fines, pretty much everything you can think of. How much does it say to you about the team that you're 14-4, despite all that?

Well, I like our group. I think good teams become an extension of their coach and I think we've become a resilient group. I think Stan is still pleading with us to have more focus and more energy, which I think on a nightly basis we can improve on, regardless of who's in the lineup.

You got the rap group going, you won the Iron Magic belt, how much fun are you having this year?

Yeah, it's been good. I think this is my fourth year with the team and I'm a little bit older now, I've settled down a bit, I'm more comfortable with myself, so all the other stuff is just fun but I think with the conversations I've had with Otis [Smith], Stan, and even with a lot of my Duke coaches the past couple summers, it's just about being a professional, and being a pro, and coming to work every day. It's something I've learned to do.

On the road, is there anything that you guys do aside from basketball, that you try to do as a team?

Well, I think everybody is different and I think everybody has a routine. You got to respect guys' routine. I think if anybody said 'we're having a team dinner,' there would be a mutiny. You got to respect guys' routine. I know for me, I'm a pretty low-key guy, so I order room service, sometimes I go to dinner alone. This year, I usually go to dinner with Ryan [Anderson] and J-Will, last year I went to dinner with Adonal [Foyle] if I did go with somebody.

Personally me, I wouldn't like it if we all 13 of us went out to dinner, it'd be a scene. I don't want a scene. *laughs*

I just want to go have a low-key [dinner], focus in on what I go to do the next day.

Orlando Magic News for November 30th: Dwight Howard is Happy with Recent Road Trip, while Ryan Anderson is Just Happy

Ben Q Rock — Mon, 30 Nov 2009 21:00:18 -0000

More photos » by John Raoux - AP

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A great roadtrip!!!
Magic center Dwight Howard is pleased with his team's performance on their recent road trip, during which the Magic went 3-0 and surmounted deficits of 17 and 14 points. What caught my eye, though, is this bit of jubilation about his free-throw shooting:

Those last two games they tried fouling me intentionally, but it didn’t work too good. Some of the guys call it "Hack-A-Howard’’ and I gotta admit that’s pretty funny. But I made the free throws vs. Milwaukee and New York.

Howard shot 5-of-10 against the Bucks on Saturday and 8-of-15 against the Knicks on Sunday, which dragged his free throw percentage to a career-low 56.1% on the young season.
Former Net Ryan Anderson: "In No Way Could You Blame Lawrence Frank"
Gerald Narciso of Dime Magazine interviewed Magic forward Ryan Anderson last night and asked him about several subjects, including the New Jersey Nets' firing of Lawrence Frank, his new teammates, and his role with the Magic.

Dime: Are you surprised with your impact this season?

Ryan Anderson: Nah, you know I’m just playing my game and trying to have a good time. I have a ton of great players behind me and their [sic] unselfish guys so it makes it easier for me to just go out and play. Coach has given me the green light to shoot it when I’m open, so it’s a lot of fun to play for Stan [Van Gundy].
Former Knick Patrick Ewing says he would love to coach New Jersey Nets
Frank coached Magic men Anderson and Vince Carter last season, but that's not where the connection between the Nets and the Magic ends. Marc Berman of the New York Post reports that Magic assistant coach Patrick Ewing, whom the Magic hired to work almost exclusively with Howard's development in the low-post, is interested in the coaching vacancy the Nets created when they canned Frank.
Weekly Post-Ups (Cyber Monday Edition)
Ken Berger of CBSSports.com credits GM Otis Smith for giving the Magic enough depth at point guard to withstand the loss of Jameer Nelson to injury.

This season, when Nelson went down again with torn meniscus in his left knee, there was no need for GM Otis Smith to scan the waiver wire, scour the D-League, or make a desperation play for Allen Iverson. That’s because he did his homework during the summer, signing veteran Jason Williams out of retirement. All Williams has done is lead Orlando to a 6-1 record as the starting point guard while leading the league in assist-to-turnover ratio. His backup, Anthony Johnson, has been capable, too. Make no mistake, the Magic need a healthy Nelson to get back to the Finals. But Orlando once again will be able to get through a significant portion of the regular season without him.

Williams has the 4th-best Pure Point Rating in the NBA and has posted a career-best 57.4 TS% so far.
The Cream Rises to the Top
John Schuhmann of NBA.com ranks the Magic at the top of his weekly Power Rankings.
NBA News That Doesn't Really Matter: "That Guy We Drafted," 1997
ShamSports' latest entry in the That Guy We Drafted series includes snippets about two current Magic players (Adonal Foyle and Anthony Johnson) and several former ones, including Johnny Taylor, the last man to don #23 for Orlando. He averaged 22.3 points and 19.7 rebounds playing in Bahrain last season.
NBA Highlight Reel Players of Decade
UPDATE: Zachariah Blott names Williams the NBA's best Highlight Reel Player of the 2000s.

He’s done things with the ball in his decade-long career that only Pistol Pete has matched. Before toning down his game a few years ago in order to become more consistent, he did all the amazing And-1 tricks… in NBA games, against NBA players, playing NBA-level defense.

What's Wrong with Marcin Gortat?

Ben Q Rock — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 19:00:13 -0000

by Phelan M. Ebenhack - AP

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One of the Orlando Magic's biggest problems this season has been star center Dwight Howard's persistent foul trouble. Any team will suffer when its best player is off the court--unless you believe in the Ewing theory--but Howard's situation is pronounced since, without his presence in the middle drawing double teams, the Magic's three-point shooters aren't afforded as much space to get shots off.

This situation is not unique to this season, of course. With Howard suspended for Game 6 of last year's Eastern Conference Quarterfinals, the Magic ran their offense through Rashard Lewis in the post, and coasted to a 25-point victory. Marcin Gortat, starting in Howard's place, came up big: he posted 11 points on 5-of-8 shooting, 15 rebounds, 2 assists, and 4 steals. Such a performance isn't unusual for the Polish Prince. Prior to this season, he had averaged 10.2 points, 10 rebounds, and 1.8 blocks in regular-season games in which he played at least 25 minutes. In short, he proved to be a starting-quality center, provided he got playing time.

The Dallas Mavericks took note of Gortat's skills--among them athleticism, strong defensive instincts, good hands, superb rebounding--and signed him to an offer sheet worth the full mid-level exception. The Magic made the startling decision to match the offer sheet, making Gortat their fifth-highest-paid player. Indeed, only Vince Carter, Lewis, Howard, and Jameer Nelson will earn more of the Magic's money this season, and they've all earned selections to the All-Star team at least once in their careers.

Which brings me back to my first point: Howard's foul trouble is costing the Magic on both ends because Gortat is, stunningly, not playing nearly as well as he had during his first two years in the NBA. His Player Efficiency Rating after two seasons was an impressive 17.0, which ranks him slightly better than a "3rd banana" according to John Hollinger's PER scale. This year, it's just 11.6, which places Gortat in the "scrounging for minutes" camp.

As the table below illustrates, Gortat's efficient scoring has taken a bit of a hit, while his rebounding has dropped sharply in all categories. Note that I combined his rookie and sophomore seasons because he played just 41 minutes as a rookie, as the Magic put their trust in Adonal Foyle to relieve Howard:

Shooting and Rebounding Statistics for Marcin Gortat, 2007/08-2008/09 (Cumulative) and 2009/10 NBA Seasons
Season	FG%	OReb%	DReb%	TReb%
2007/08 2008/09 (cumulative)	55.9%	14.5%	26.1%	20.4%
2008/09	51.0%	8.9%	19.7%	14.1%
Statistics from Basketball-Reference.com

If you want me to tell you why Gortat has regressed as a rebounder, I don't know what to tell you. He hasn't taken any plays off, so it's not a question of effort. He's just straight-up getting beaten to rebounds, something that rarely happened in his first two seasons. Maybe it's an issue of technique, or of small sample size. In any case, I'm keeping my eyes peeled in the coming days and weeks to see what happened to Gortat's formerly elite rebounding ability. Whatever's causing it must be serious, since his total rebounding is down 30% from last year.

Fortunately, 82games.com can provide insight into Gortat's shooting slump. Below, I've reproduced his shot selection and efficiency from last season and this season.

Shot Selection for Marcin Gortat, 2008/09 NBA Season
Shot	Att.	eFG%	Ast'd	Blk'd	Pts
Jump	24	.380	71%	7%	0.6
Close	55	.644	76%	12%	2.1
Dunk	9	.875	100%	6%	0.4
Tips	12	.409	0%	0%	0.3
Inside	76	.634	72%	9%	2.9
Chart reproduced from 82games.com

Shot Selection for Marcin Gortat, 2009/10 NBA Season
Shot	Att.	eFG%	Ast'd	Blk'd	Pts
Jump	29	.400	100%	0%	0.9
Close	47	.500	67%	4%	1.8
Dunk	10	1.000	100%	0%	0.8
Tips	14	.429	0%	0%	0.5
Inside	71	.556	65%	3%	3.1
Chart reproduced from 82games.com

Gortat's offensive struggles don't have anything to do with his increased reliance on the jumper, which seems counter-intuitive. His lack of accuracy on close shots that aren't dunks or tip-ins is the culprit... and it's not like he's getting blocked inside. In fact, he's two-thirds less likely to get rejected inside than he was last year. Indeed, it appears as though Gortat has a prolonged case of the hiccups around the hoop. He made 64.4% of such shots last year, which, as the tables show, has dropped to 50% this year. Thus, it appears as though he's mired in a funk, and his shooting touch from the inside return soon. Unless, of course, there's some sort of mental issue preventing him from scoring inside with any degree of reliability. Is he hurrying to put up shots inside? Is he not focused on the task at hand? Has the pressure of signing a big-money deal worn on him? Only observation can answer the first of those questions; Gortat's the only person who can answer the next two with any certainty.

What is clear is that Marcin Gortat needs to step up his game, especially on the glass and in the offensive low-post, if Dwight Howard continues to get himself in foul trouble. At his best, Gortat's arguably the league's top backup center, although we're willing to hear arguments in favor of Joel Przybilla. What was once an embarrassment of riches for the Magic at center, with Howard and Gortat manning the pivot, has become an embarrassment, relative to expectations.

What They're Saying Before the Orlando Magic Face Off Against the Miami Heat

erivera7 — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 13:00:32 -0000

More photos » by Jeffrey Boan - AP

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Orlando Magic coach Stan Van Gundy to Dwyane Wade: Go West, young man. Please!
Brian Schmitz states how the Orlando Magic will have a difficult task of trying to contain Dwyane Wade in tonight's game, a player that has historically given the team plenty of nightmares.

Van Gundy once coached Wade in Miami and now has been on the receiving end in Orlando, watching D-Wade dismantle his defense.

Wade scored 50 points in a game last season against the Magic and averaged 38 points in four meetings, shooting 52.6 percent.

He averaged 40 points and shot 66.7 percent playing in just two games against Orlando in the 2007-2008 season --- Van Gundy's first season in Orlando --- with his high being 48 points.

Wade also gets to the basket at will. He shot a whopping 73 free throws against the Magic the past two seasons in six games, making 54.

The stat that Van Gundy can live with: Wade is 1-5 against the Magic in those outings, the Heat 1-7 overall vs. their former coach.
Heat taking note of Jason Williams' revival
Ira Winderman of the Sun-Sentinel, arguably one of the best beat writers in the NBA, notes how the Miami Heat are taking note of Jason Williams' re-emergence after he sat out the season last year.

"They get guys that fit that system, and Jason has always been a very clever and efficient pick-and-roll player," Heat coach Erik Spoelstra said. "Now he's getting the ideal situation for a pick-and-roll player. You get a dominant big man, who can roll and catch and finish, and every single other player has 3-point range with a green light. As we know, Jason's a dynamic passer and he fits perfectly in their system."
Orlando Magic notes: Howard's foul troubles have hampered the team's offense
Just to reiterate, in case people are curious.

Magic General Manager Otis Smith said after Sunday's game in Toronto that he still had no plans to add another point guard to the roster.

Barring injuries, Smith is of the mind to weather any storm until the return of all-star PG Jameer Nelson. He had arthroscopic knee surgery Nov. 18 and could be back sooner than the four-to-six week prognosis.
Orlando Magic PG Jameer Nelson says meniscus tear was more extensive
An update on Jameer Nelson's progress.

Orlando Magic PG Jameer Nelson said Tuesday that the tear in his lateral meniscus in his left knee was more extensive than doctors previously thought.

"It was a little bigger than they thought," Nelson said. "It doesn't make any difference if you had to go in and fix it. Don't worry. I'll still have my hops."

Dr. Craig Mintzer, the club's team doctor, performed Nelson's surgery on Nov. 18. [...]

Nelson said he started electrical stimulation treatments on Tuesday.
Adonal Foyle is progressing in his rehabilitation from knee surgery
UPDATE: Josh Robbins has news on Adonal Foyle's progress.
Wade's Free Agency Could End With Dwight in Orlando
UPDATE 2: Tim Povtak of NBA FanHouse reveals this nugget that will surely intrigue Magic fans for the remainder of the season.

Miami's Dwyane Wade just raised the intrigue -- and opened a world of possibilities -- over his pending free agency when he was asked Wednesday afternoon who he really would like to play with in the NBA.

Wade will become an unrestricted free agent this summer, allowing him to play anywhere he wants.

"If I could pick one player in the league today to play with – and most people think I'd say LeBron James – I would pick Dwight (Howard)," Wade told FanHouse Wednesday after practice at Amway Arena. "I'd love for that to happen at some point. Dwight is already close right here in Orlando. People who say it couldn't happen (us playing on the same team), they don't know. I've learned in this league that anything is possible."

Game 12 Recap: Orlando 108, Oklahoma City 94

Zorgon — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 06:58:54 -0000

More photos » by John Raoux - AP

Nick Collison: Hey, I think I see something interesting over there! Nenad, Thabo, and Kevin: Nope. You're not fooling us. This game still sucks.

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Yahoo! Sports Box Score:

Wow, what an ugly game. After the first half of this game, I had to go to film class. We watched "Run Lola Run" It was much, much better than watching the completely irrelevant second half of this game.

First lets look at the positives of this game. Nenad Krstic scored right off of the bat, and Jeff Green managed to regain the lead after a Vince Carter jumper. The Thunder didn't score for another 3 minutes. At this point, they were completely out of the game, only managing to fall further and further behind. Whenever someone on the Thunder would score, the Magic would respond with, "BOOM, 3 in your face!".

What went wrong? We allowed Vince Carter, Rashard Lewis, Mickael Pietrus, and Dwight Howard to walk all over us. And, FYI, that was an average game for Carter. So Sefolosha was definitely a non-factor here.There was just a complete lack of perimeter, mid-range, and interior defense, which allowed the Magic to jump out to an insurmountable lead.

Also, our offense was completely stagnant. No starter shot well, and they were often forced into bad shots.

Below: Just Awards

There's really no more analysis that can be done, so I'll just hand out the awards.

Thunder Wonder: James Harden. Everything he did was in garbage time, but he's the only Thunder player who has even remotely good stats. 24 Points on 7-14 Shooting, 6-7 from the 3 Point Line, 3 Rebounds, and 3 Assists. If we had more players like him, we might have been able to match the Magics 3 point shooting, but unfortunately, he';s the only legitimate 3 point scorer we have.

Thunder Down Under: Kyle Weaver. I gotta give some love to my favourite player! 11 Points, 2 Rebounds, 4 Assists, and 2 Steals in 15 minutes of garbage time! Now that's what I like to see!

Thunder Blunder: Nenad Krstic. 11 Minutes, 1-5 shooting, 2 Rebounds, 2 Fouls, and a horrible job defending the interior. 'Nuff said.

Thunder Plunderer: Adonal Foyle. For continuing to sit on the bench, despite his team being up by a large amount of points. Not really. It goes to Rashard Lewis, for completely owning via 17 Points, 10 Rebounds, and 9 Assists for a near triple-double. I know, it was mostly in garbage time, but an assist away from a triple double is nonetheless impressive.

Next Game: Versus the Wizards, Friday, November 20th, at 7 PM Central Standard Time

Game 12 Preview: Oklahoma City at Orlando

Zorgon — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 23:59:33 -0000

More photos » by Sue Ogrocki - AP

Dwight Howard is back, and this time he has help. No, not Vince Carter or Rashard Lewis! I'm talking about the ball! I think he's convinced it to join his cause now.

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This also counts as an open thread, so feel free to post your thoughts during the game here.

Time: 6 PM Central Standard Time

Place: Amway Arena, Orlando, Florida

TV: KSBI-TV 52, Sun Sports

Radio: WWLS The Sports Animal (98.1)

Enemy Blog(s): Third Quarter Collapse, The Puns Are Starting to Bore Me

Backstory: So, Orlando, we meet again! But what's different about you this time? Well, you've gone 3-1 since your loss to us, but....Jameer Nelson is now out. Easy game, right? Wrong. The reason we won last time is because the Magic were seriously lacking in the scoring department without Vince Carter or Rashard Lewis. Nobody could help take the scoring pressure off of Dwight Howard. Not even Jameer Nelson, who normally can do so.. Which is exactly my point. Jameer Nelson isn't a distributor in the strictest sense. Don't get me wrong, he has his fair share of assists, but he is a scorer first. Thus, as long as Vince Carter and Rashard Lewis play and score, the Magic shouldn't miss a step. And Jason Williams won't have any trouble distributing the ball. And that is why I think this game presents a problem for us.

On our side of things, Russell Westbrook has regained his stride, Thabo Sefolosha is defending like a mad man, and it looks like we're on top of the world again! Unfortunately, this is the second game of a back-to-back, so there might be a degree of fatigue and homesickness here.

Below: Matchups, Prediction

Matchups:

Center: Nenad Krstic vs. Dwight Howard

Last time, Nenad Krstic was able to do his fair share of scoring via his infamous jump shot, but Dwight Howard was able to outscore and outrebound him on all fronts. Expect the same to happen again here.

Power Forward: Jeff Green vs. Rashard Lewis

Jeff Green has been cold as a Winter storm lately, and Rashard Lewis came off of his injury with a bang. Expect Green to grab the necessary boards and Shard to outscore Green.

Small Forward: Kevin Durant vs. Mickael Pietrus

Last time, Pietrus didn't provide much of a threat for Durant, and I don't think this time will be much different.

Shooting Guard: Thabo Sefolosha vs. Vince Carter

This might be what the game hinges on. If the Magic have 3 solid scorers, we won't have much of a shot, but if they're reduced to two, we'll have more of a shot.

Point Guard: Russell Westbrook vs. Jason Williams

Russell Westbrook will almost certainly outscore and outrebound Jason Williams. Jason Williams will have more assists, though.

Battle of the Benches

The Magic bench is much deeper and more talented. Even at PG, they still have Anthony Johnson, who is probably one of the best 3rd PGs in the league. Best of all, they have Adonal Foyle. Magic by a mile.

Coaching and Intangibles

The Magic easily win here because they're at home, facing us on the 2nd game of a back-to-back, want some revenge, and have more talent than they did last time.

Bottom Line

The key to the game, for us, it silencing Lewis or Carter while making sure we exploit the fact that they have no real Power Forward. A good day from Jeff Green and Thabo Sefolosha would help out a lot here.

Prediction: Magic 99, Thunder 90

Sorry, but I've got to go with my brain, not my heart. The Magic have our number this time.

How do you think the game will go? Vote in the Poll!

And, again, feel free to drop any comments you might have during, before, or after the game below. I might be here during the game to drop my thoughts as well. Go Thunder!

Poll

Who's going to win tonight?

The Oklahoma City Thunder

4 votes

The Orlando Magic

14 votes

18 votes | Poll has closed

Replacing Estimates of Magic 08-09 Stats With Real Ones

jonnichols — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 13:15:09 -0000

Some of the best stats out there, ones that most fans familiar with advanced stats know about, are actually based on estimates using box score data. For example, when we calculate Marcin Gortat's Offensive Rebound Rate, we're trying to determine what percentage of available offensive rebounds he collected while he was on the court. However, we don't really know how many rebounds were available. We have to estimate based on how things usually go for the Magic and their opponents, and assign a portion of that to Gortat.

Using box score data, that's the best we can do. But we also have play-by-play data, and we don't have to estimate. We (actually, a programming script) can go through the hundreds of thousands of recorded plays from the NBA 08-09 season, and find how many of those resulted in offensive rebound opportunities for Gortat. From there we just total how many offensive boards he had, and divide that by the number of available ones.

This method removes some of the guessing game, and the results of this method on various stats for the Magic will be discussed today. For a full explanation of how everything works, I will refer you to the article I wrote over at Basketball-Statistics.com last Thursday, which is here. Let's start by comparing the estimated rebound rates to the actual ones, as calculated from the play-by-play data, after the jump...

We can see that the estimates are pretty darn close. Amazingly, though, Dwight Howard is an even better rebounder than we thought (by 0.3%). Gortat's offensive rebounding may have been slightly overestimated, but his defensive rebounding was underestimated. The biggest differences were for Keith Bogans and Rafer Alston, who were actually not rebounding as well as we thought.

Now let's move on to some stuff for the little guys. Here are the comparisons for assists and steals:

Jameer Nelson's Assist Rate may have been inflated, while Anthony Johnson didn't receive enough credit. When we use the play-by-play data instead of the estimates, the difference between the two shrinks from 10.9% to 7%. My play-by-play steal rates are slightly lower for every player, and that may have something to do with differences in the way I calculated possessions.

Finally, let's look at blocks and usage rate:

Again, we see that each player's PBP data is less than his estimated data. This is not a Magic-only thing. The reason for this difference is again due to different calculations. Block percentage is normally calculated as the percentage of opponents' two-point attempts that were blocked by the player in question. My calculations counted three-point attempts as well. I feel that this way is more appropriate because, even though it's rare, three-pointers do get blocked. With usage rates, we again see that the estimates were actually pretty close to the real thing.

Because the differences between the estimates and the play-by-play data are usually small, this information may seem trivial. In many ways, it is. However, it's nice to get that warm fuzzy feeling when you know the numbers you're looking at are thoroughly calculated instead of just estimations.

What, does nobody else get that feeling?

Orlando Magic News for November 16th: Lessons Learned from Rashard Lewis' Absence

Ben Q Rock — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 20:03:49 -0000

More photos » by Phelan M. Ebenhack - AP

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Five things we learned from the Orlando Magic's 10 Rashard-less games
Zach McCann Orlando Magic Daily likens the Magic's first ten games to "a colonoscopy" and lists five things they revealed about the Magic, sans Rashard Lewis. I'm in agreement with him when he says Brandon Bass is better than he's looked so far, and that Ryan Anderson needs to play. I expect the Magic feel the same way, which is why Bass--not Anderson--will likely be the 11th man when everyone's healthy again. Whenever that is.
Rashard Ready to Return
John Denton of OrlandoMagic.com writes about Lewis' return to action, and the difficulty he faced knowing that he couldn't help his team for the first 10 games of the season.

"Opening night when you are sitting there watching your team, and they unveil that banner as well, it was really hard," Lewis said. "You were a part of putting that banner in the arena and you want to be a part of it receiving it. Me sitting at home it was tough and it really hit me."
Turkoglu almost joined Suns in 2004
Paul Coro of the Arizona Republic writes that the Magic were able to sign Hedo Turkoglu as a free agent in 2004 because they trumped the Phoenix Suns' offer. For a bit, it appeared as though his signing with the Suns was imminent.

The plan was to firm up a six-year deal worth about $30 million over a 7 p.m. dinner reservation. News-conference plans for the next day were under way. At 5 p.m., Turkoglu's agent, Lon Babby, called to say, "We have a bit of a problem." Orlando had called to offer $36 million.

"I've got a problem, because I've got to cancel the reservation," [Suns GM Bryan] Colangelo told Babby.

Interesting that Colangelo, now of the Toronto Raptors, made up for losing out on Hedo five years later when he obtained him from the Magic in a sign-and-trade deal. Also interesting that Turkoglu wasn't even the Magic's first choice; their top target that year was Adonal Foyle, who wound up re-signing a long-term deal with Golden State instead. The Warriors bought him out of that hefty contract in 2007, after which point he signed with the Magic.

Small world. Small league.
Cavs: The Blog: The Stretch Four
Yesterday's post on this site about the Magic's need to have a "stretch" power forward in their starting lineup was hardly the first investigating the impact of such players on the league in recent years. John Krolik of Cavs: The Blog wrote about that topic a few weeks ago.

Poll: Who Should Be the Orlando Magic's Fifth Starter?

Ben Q Rock — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 19:00:54 -0000

Imagine for a second that every Orlando Magic player is healthy and eligible to play. It's hard to imagine, given how the season has gone so far, but just bear with me. The ankles of Ryan Anderson and Vince Carter have healed, Rashard Lewis' suspension has run out, Adonal Foyle's knee has recovered, and nobody has the flu.

Now that you've entered this wonderful fantasy land, ask yourself this question:

Who starts?

You have four givens: ~~Anderson,~~ Carter, Lewis, Jameer Nelson, and Dwight Howard, the team's recent All-Stars. The fifth spot, however, is up for grabs. The contenders are either Matt Barnes or Mickael Pietrus at small forward, J.J. Redick at shooting guard, and either Anderson or Brandon Bass at power forward. Here's how these lineups would look, respectively:

Nelson / Carter / Barnes / Lewis / Howard
Nelson / Carter / Pietrus / Lewis / Howard
Nelson / Redick / Carter / Lewis / Howard
Nelson / Carter / Lewis / Anderson / Howard
Nelson / Carter / Lewis / Bass / Howard

Again, given the choice of starting any of these five lineups, which would you pick? The first two appeared to be the most likely ones when the season started, but Redick (13.3 points, 3 rebounds, 3 assists per game) and Anderson (15 points and 5 rebounds per game) have played their way into the conversation so far this year. And although Bass (9.4 points, 3.1 rebounds per game) has yet to dazzle in a Magic uniform, many mainstream media figures pencilled him in as the starting power forward once the Magic made him their highest-paid free-agent acquisition this summer.

Poll

Assuming every player is healthy, who should join point guard Jameer Nelson, swingman Vince Carter, combo forward Rashard Lewis, and center Dwight Howard in the Orlando Magic's starting lineup?

Ryan Anderson at power forward, with Lewis at small forward

265 votes

Matt Barnes at small forward

141 votes

Brandon Bass at power forward, with Lewis at small forward

48 votes

Mickael Pietrus at small forward

128 votes

J.J. Redick at shooting guard, with Carter at small forward

75 votes

657 votes | Poll has closed