SB Nation - Tyronn Lue

Replacing Estimates of Magic 08-09 Stats With Real Ones

jonnichols — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 13:15:09 -0000

Some of the best stats out there, ones that most fans familiar with advanced stats know about, are actually based on estimates using box score data. For example, when we calculate Marcin Gortat's Offensive Rebound Rate, we're trying to determine what percentage of available offensive rebounds he collected while he was on the court. However, we don't really know how many rebounds were available. We have to estimate based on how things usually go for the Magic and their opponents, and assign a portion of that to Gortat.

Using box score data, that's the best we can do. But we also have play-by-play data, and we don't have to estimate. We (actually, a programming script) can go through the hundreds of thousands of recorded plays from the NBA 08-09 season, and find how many of those resulted in offensive rebound opportunities for Gortat. From there we just total how many offensive boards he had, and divide that by the number of available ones.

This method removes some of the guessing game, and the results of this method on various stats for the Magic will be discussed today. For a full explanation of how everything works, I will refer you to the article I wrote over at Basketball-Statistics.com last Thursday, which is here. Let's start by comparing the estimated rebound rates to the actual ones, as calculated from the play-by-play data, after the jump...

We can see that the estimates are pretty darn close. Amazingly, though, Dwight Howard is an even better rebounder than we thought (by 0.3%). Gortat's offensive rebounding may have been slightly overestimated, but his defensive rebounding was underestimated. The biggest differences were for Keith Bogans and Rafer Alston, who were actually not rebounding as well as we thought.

Now let's move on to some stuff for the little guys. Here are the comparisons for assists and steals:

Jameer Nelson's Assist Rate may have been inflated, while Anthony Johnson didn't receive enough credit. When we use the play-by-play data instead of the estimates, the difference between the two shrinks from 10.9% to 7%. My play-by-play steal rates are slightly lower for every player, and that may have something to do with differences in the way I calculated possessions.

Finally, let's look at blocks and usage rate:

Again, we see that each player's PBP data is less than his estimated data. This is not a Magic-only thing. The reason for this difference is again due to different calculations. Block percentage is normally calculated as the percentage of opponents' two-point attempts that were blocked by the player in question. My calculations counted three-point attempts as well. I feel that this way is more appropriate because, even though it's rare, three-pointers do get blocked. With usage rates, we again see that the estimates were actually pretty close to the real thing.

Because the differences between the estimates and the play-by-play data are usually small, this information may seem trivial. In many ways, it is. However, it's nice to get that warm fuzzy feeling when you know the numbers you're looking at are thoroughly calculated instead of just estimations.

What, does nobody else get that feeling?

Otis Smith Explains the Orlando Magic's Busy Offseason to Brian Schmitz

Ben Q Rock — Sun, 27 Sep 2009 04:42:05 -0000

Brian Schmitz of the Orlando Sentinel conducted this interview with Orlando Magic GM Otis Smith regarding the myriad changes the club has made this offseason. Six players who were members of the roster that made it to the NBA Finals last season--Rafer Alston, Tony Battie, Courtney Lee, Tyronn Lue, Jeremy Richardson, and Hedo Turkoglu--have moved on, while five new players--Ryan Anderson, Matt Barnes, Brandon Bass, Vince Carter, and Jason Williams, have come aboard. The whole interview is well worth reading, but these portions in particular stood out to me (brackets Schmitz's):

Q: You've been a 3-point shooting club that was hurt by the Lakers' size and length in the Finals. Have the changes made you a sounder playoff team?

A: We're more versatile in that we can play different ways. We couldn't really play big and strong, but I think Brandon [Bass] gives us a different look. Ryan [Anderson] gives us a different look. What we'll look like is a totally different team at different times.

It's not the same team , but we're always going to play similar because Dwight [Howard] is still our big guy in the middle. He still draws double teams and we'll still encourage guys to take the 3.

Bass is a traditional power forward who is nonetheless an upgrade over Tony Battie, who manned that position last year. The addition of Anderson, and his three-point range, gives the Magic the floor-spreading reserve power forward they hoped Brian Cook would have been; they wound up unloading the underachieving Cook in the three-team trade which netted them Rafer Alston at last year's trading deadline. Anderson is, however, more than a three-point specialist, with a fairly sophisticated offensive repertoire, one that might eventually rival Rashard Lewis'. He might be the Magic's most intriguing addition, given his age (21) and skill-set.

Q: Other than an all-star resume, what does Carter give you that Turk did not?

A: I thought my core guys needed to be able to walk into a gym and see Vince Carter shooting at the other end and say, 'Now we got help. Now we got a guy who can do it.' I thought that was as big for their psyches as anything else.

This sentiment echoes one Stan Van Gundy made at Carter's introductory press conference about proving to the players management's commitment to winning.

After the jump, more excerpts and commentary from Schmitz's interview.

Q: You have your core group with Dwight, Rashard and a now healthy Jameer Nelson. You also, surprisingly, decided that Gortat would be part of that group, even though he hardly plays behind Dwight. Don't you at some point trade Gortat for another piece to get out from under his contract?

A: I know maybe on paper, and in theory, it makes sense. That's the history of the league, but we're trying to build a championship team and March is part of that. You'd only trade him because you're looking to get better or you have a need; you don't trade him because you are looking to get out from under the money.

We think with Marcin it's like, 'Break glass in case of emergency.' We didn't know if we needed a Rafer Alston last year, but we had a need [after Nelson's injury] and we were able to fill a need [with a trade].

Magic fans have speculated all summer about Gortat's future with the team. He'll be a great trade chip eventually, but his base-year-compensation status will make him difficult to deal this season. However, it certainly sounds like Otis isn't opposed to moving him for the right package.

Q: Lewis will miss the first 10 games because of his suspension. How will that affect a team trying to put together new pieces?

A: I think it's a blessing. Sometimes there's a silver lining. You get to see guys play extended minutes who normally would not.

Is there any doubt he's referring to Anderson in this instance?

So Michael Jordan is going to the Hall of Fame...

Mike Prada — Thu, 10 Sep 2009 14:56:59 -0000

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...and if you're a Wizards fan, you're probably asking yourself, "How should I feel about this?"

How do I feel about this? Jordan the player was absolutely the best that ever lived. He was the most electrifying player and the most competitive player this game has ever seen (or will see). Friends tease me at how much I watch old Jordan games when he was in Chicago in my spare time. He was absolutely stunning.

But I also can't help but feel bitter about his time in DC, a tenure dominated by Jordan often putting his own interests above the good of the team. Maybe he meant well, maybe he didn't, but it's tough to deny that Jordan did not elevate the Wizards to a level that anyone should be proud of. Two straight 37-win seasons are a failure, even for the Wizards.

During Jordan's tenure as an executive and a player, he made the following wrong moves:

He drafted Kwame Brown.
He hired Leonard Hamilton.
He traded Rip Hamilton for Jerry Stackhouse.
He hired a coach proven to stink at handling young players (Doug Collins), even though he had a young team.
He forced the Wizards to play a half-court style that benefited him, but did not necessarily benefit guys like Rip Hamilton, Courtney Alexander, Kwame Brown and Tyronn Lue.
He balked at coming off the bench at the start of the 2002/03 season, instead forcing his way into the lineup and messing up his best free agent's confidence (Larry Hughes).
He didn't do a great job of sharing the spotlight with his co-star, whether it was Rip Hamilton or Jerry Stackhouse.

Those are just a few. He had some successes, but the bottom line is that he mostly failed. When you fail, you are not retained. It happens to everyone.

But apparently Michael Jordan still believes he deserved special treatment from the Wizards even if he didn't succeed.

"You could've done it differently," [Jordan's representative Curtis] Polk said. "No matter what you might have thought as the owner or owners of the organization in 2003, when this happened; no matter what you might have thought was best for the organization; no matter what you might have thought about Michael Jordan as a player, general manager, person -- it was Michael Jordan. You don't do what you did that publicly to that caliber person. Michael is a great person and you can't think about NBA basketball without thinking of Michael Jordan."

It's this type of arrogance that bothers me. How dare the Wizards fire Michael Jordan! You can't fire the great Michael Jordan! Nevermind that executives who work extremely hard and devote their entire life to the game get fired all the time for moves that may go beyond their control. Ernie Grunfeld's been fired twice, once in an ugly way when he lost a power struggle to Jeff Van Gundy in New York. Former greats like Elgin Baylor have been fired from organizations as dysfunctional as the Clippers, for Pete's sake!

As to Polk's gripe that you don't fire Jordan the way he was fired ... give me a break! Jordan gave up his right to choose his destiny when he went back and played again. Oral agreements between owners and employees are surely broken all the time -- if it's not in writing (which the Jordan camp has never been able to prove), then it's not shady to fire a guy. Even if it is in writing, guys get fired in the middle of their contracts all the time. Just ask Eddie Jordan, who was extended one summer and fired the next.

And while it sucks to go into a meeting thinking you're going to be retained, only to find that your owner is actually firing you, there are more brutal ways to be fired. Just ask Grunfeld. You know how he was fired by the Knicks? According to Mike Wise and Frank Isola's book Just Ballin': The Chaotic Rise of the New York Knicks, Grunfeld was fired at the end of a two-hour fancy dinner with Knicks president Dave Checketts in mid-April. They had a cordial dinner, engaging in light-hearted conversation, and suddenly Checketts told Ernie he was fired. Now that's brutal. I hope Michael Jordan learns about that story so he can gain some perspective.

That, my friends, is why I have trouble feeling warm and fuzzy about Michael Jordan being inducted into the Hall of Fame. It's been over six years since Pollin fired him, and Jordan still can't get over it. That type of competitiveness is endearing for an athlete, but it's pretty repulsive for someone whose playing career is finished.

Tyronn Lue Declines PAOK's Offer, Wants to Stay in NBA

Ben Q Rock — Sun, 06 Sep 2009 15:58:49 -0000

by Fernando Medina - NBAE/Getty Images

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Contradicting yesterday's report, Orlando Magic free-agent point guard Tyronn Lue will not sign with PAOK (hat tip: SLAM). The 11-year veteran would prefer to stay in the NBA.

For whatever reason, I don't think he'll have too much trouble finding a job. A move to Boston would make the most sense, because the Celtics have--in Rajon Rondo--just one true point guard. Additionally, Lue is good friends with star Celtics forward Kevin Garnett. The Philadelphia 76ers are another team that might be interested in a steady, veteran presence behind new starter Louis Williams and rookie Jrue Holliday.

No matter where he winds up, Lue will indeed be the last Magic free-agent domino to drop. They re-signed Adonal Foyle and matched Dallas' offer sheet to Marcin Gortat, while allowing Hedo Turkoglu (Toronto) and Jeremy Richardson (Aris Thessaloniki) to ply their trades elsewhere.

Tyronn Lue Reportedly to Sign with Greek Team PAOK

Ben Q Rock — Sat, 05 Sep 2009 20:43:49 -0000

Former Orlando Magic point guard Tyronn Lue is nearing an agreement with the Greek club PAOK, according to TalkBasket, via SLAM. The Magic acquired Lue from Milwaukee in exchange for Keith Bogans last February shortly after Jameer Nelson went down with a season-ending shoulder injury. Lue's signing anywhere will officially end the Magic's roster turnover from last season's Eastern Conference Championship squad, as all its free agents have either moved on or re-signed with Orlando.

After the February trade, Lue averaged 3.0 points and 1.0 assists on 39.5% shooting for Orlando, making 14 regular-season appearances and just 1 in the playoffs. His lackluster play as the second-string point guard inthe immediate aftermath of Nelson's injury may have influenced GM Otis Smith's decision to acquire Rafer Alston at the trading deadline, relegating Lue to third-string duties.

How Jason Williams Compares to Orlando Magic Backup Point Guards of Yore

Ben Q Rock — Fri, 21 Aug 2009 12:00:21 -0000

I think most of us have effectively dismissed the notion that Jason Williams, the Orlando Magic's latest free-agency signing, will somehow challenge Jameer Nelson for the team's starting point guard job. Now is the time for a more worthwhile dialog, namely one focusing on how Williams stacks up against Anthony Johnson, the team's current backup.

Below, I've made a table comparing four point guards. One is Williams, one is Johnson, and the other two are players who have moved on to other teams, with their statistics coming from their last season in Orlando. I've included those two extra players in order to give us a better understanding of how Williams stacks up against recent Magic reserve point guards, to see how well he'll fit in (or not) with the team, in comparison to them. And I've removed their names (for now) in order to remove potential biases from our initial evaluations.

What a labyrinthine paragraph that was. Anyway, the comparative table:

Orlando Magic Backup Point Guard Comparison
Point Guard A	Point Guard B		Point Guard C	Point Guard D
Traditional
10.2	11.2	Points/36	13.2	12.2
3.6	2.5	Rebounds/36	3.3	3.2
4.9	5.9	Assists/36	6.0	6.2
2.0	1.7	Turnovers/36	2.1	2.2
40.4	38.4	FG%	38.5	45.1
39.1	35.3	3FG%	33.8	34.5
75.3	86.3	FT%	75.0	85.3
Advanced
10.3	12.7	PER	13.8	12.8
5.6	4.1	Rebound Rate	5.3	5.1
21.2	27.3	Assist Rate	27.0	26.6
16.4	13.5	Turnover Rate	13.3	16.4
15.5	17.0	Usage Rate	19.9	17.0
3.5	6.0	Pure Point Rating	5.5	5.4
47.2	47.2	eFG%	45.4	49.3
50.5	50.2	TS%	49.4	54.7
104	104	Offensive Rating	105	111
105	111	Defensive Rating	104	109
See the complete comparison at Basketball-Reference.com by clicking here

After the jump, the mystery players' identities revealed, and what the stats might mean.

Here, as promised, are the identities of the Magic's mystery point guards:

Point Guard A	Point Guard B	Point Guard C	Point Guard D
Anthony Johnson	Jason Williams	Rafer Alston	Carlos Arroyo

Judging by the statistics--just the raw numbers that I presented--Williams' best comparison is Alston, at least as a passer. They posted similar usage rates, assist rates and turnover rates in their last NBA season, although Williams ultimately wins out in Pure Point Rating. It's important to remember that Williams has toned down his flashy ballhandling, and thus has become a fairly reliable distributor. Like Alston, come to think of it.

Williams diverges from Alston as a scorer. Conveniently (for comparison's sake) he's highly comparable to Johnson in terms of shot selection. Check Johnson's and Williams' player profiles from 82games. Both players prefer to shoot off the dribble, with 81% of Johnson's shots classified as jumpers (85% for Williams); neither player gets much help, as Johnson received assists on only 42% of his jumpers, and Williams on 48%. Because of their infrequent forays into the lane, neither player attempts many free throws. And from the chart at the top of the post, one can see that Johnson and Williams have similar True Shooting and effective field goal percentages. Last season, Magic fans became familiar with Johnson's attempts to create shots for himself, seemingly in slow-motion. This year, it looks like they're in for more of the same, with Johnson and now Williams. It's almost uncanny.

Surprisingly, to me, is Williams' superiority to Johnson in catch-and-shoot situations. (For documentation's sake, let me note that all the statistics I've used in this paragraph come from scouting reports not available to the general public.) Last season, Johnson played (in practice, not in name) a handful of minutes at small forward when Hedo Turkoglu ran the second-unit's offense. Turk was especially adept at finding Johnson in either corner on a kick-out, and Johnson shot 54.7% (eFG%) in catch-and-shoot situations when unguarded; Williams, under the same circumstances in 2008, shot 57.0%, albeit with the dynamic Dwyane Wade doing the dishing. So what's the big deal? Williams' ability to convert at a high rate even under duress, or when guarded on a catch-and-shoot. Johnson was in the NBA's 27th percentile in this category last season, with an unremarkable effective field goal percentage of 36.7%. Williams, in 2008, with Wade usually doing the honors? An impressive 55.9%, in the 84th percentile. It remains to be seen who'll take over as the Magic's secondary ballhandler with the second-unit--Matt Barnes and Vince Carter are likely in the running--but when Williams plays away from the ball, and has opportunities to catch-and-shoot, he'll give the offense more of a lift than Johnson was able to.

If you believe in PER's ability to adequately quantify any given player's raw production, and if you believe Williams hasn't lost anything despite his year away from pro basketball, then the Magic can expect him to provide for this year's squad approximately what Carlos Arroyo did for the 2007/08 crew; their PERs differ by one-tenth of a point. Stylistically, Arroyo and Williams don't compare well, since Arroyo's much quicker, more likely to drive the ball, and a less reliable decision-maker.

Defensively, Williams has to be the worst of any of these players. That's not meant to be a slam, but even if he's as slow as Johnson, he's not as adept. Can Williams keep his man in front of him? Probably not, in most cases. What's more important, and something of which to take note during the preseason, is how competently Williams can funnel his man to a help defender.

A final note, or an asterisk, regarding Williams' modest season with the Heat in 2008: that team stank. It won 15 games; fielded what amounted to a D-League roster due to injuries; and ranked 30th, 24th, and 22nd in offensive efficiency, effective field goal percentage, and pace, respectively. The Magic team he'll join should win at least four times as many games; has a full complement of offensive weapons with whom Williams can work, provided he plays a few minutes with the starting unit; and will play at a faster pace. Williams said about as much yesterday when he indicated during the media availability session that he could stand to improve from his last season solely because of the Magic's superiority in terms of personnel:

"I can be as good or better [than before retirement] because my teammates, look at those guys, how good they are."

Indeed, the scoring prowess of Marcin Gortat and Brandon Bass trumps that of, for instance, Mark Blount and Udonis Haslem. So let's bear these potentially mitigating factors in mind when attempting to assess what Williams can contribute for Orlando. Which is, appropriately enough, the topic of my concluding paragraphs.

Overall, it appears as though Jason Williams is most similar to Rafer Alston as a passer, and Anthony Johnson as a scorer. Of course, this assessment hinges on the assumption that Williams hasn't lost a step since 2008, which is a pretty large assumption. But then again, the Magic hosted a private workout for him, after which coach Stan Van Gundy said, "He still looked like Jason Williams."

I've maintained the position that Williams wasn't the Magic's best option as a third-stringer; among minimum-salary candidates, I preferred Anthony Carter, Bobby Jackson, and (yes, even) Tyronn Lue. Williams, though, isn't a far cry from any of those guys, and from that standpoint it appears as though Smith has chosen adequately.

Try Ty Lue?

Jeff Clark — Wed, 12 Aug 2009 23:02:33 -0000

Chris Mannix answers the mail:

With Big Baby [Glen Davis] back and the likely addition of Marquis Daniels, the Celtics' most glaring need is a backup point guard. Do you agree and who fits the bill?
-- @brilliantcorner

I completely agree. The Celtics addressed nearly every need they had this offseason. They got a versatile big man (Rasheed Wallace) who can fill in at both power forward and center, they are about to add a nice wing player (Daniels) who should be able to give Paul Pierce and Ray Allen a few extra minutes of rest per game, and they solidified their bench with Shelden Williams and the returning Davis.

An extra point guard is a luxury, but one a championship-contending team such as the Celtics should try to get. Tyronn Lue is at the top of my list. Lue had a tough year playing with Milwaukee and Orlando last season. But the 32-year-old Lue is well liked by his teammates and comfortable in a backup role. Bobby Jackson and Blake Ahearn are two other guys I would look into before training camp.

And no, Stephon Marbury is not an option.

That plan works for me. Ty Lue won't knock anyone's socks off, but at least he's a point guard with NBA experience. He'd be a nice, cheap, backup option that you could plug into the lineup if Rondo goes down for a week or so with an ankle sprain. Jackson is another name that's been tossed around on this site quite a bit. I'll have to look up Ahearn though.

Poll

If you only have the following options, which do you prefer?

Ty Lue

513 votes

Bobby Jackson

648 votes

Blake Ahearn

46 votes

none - stick with House/Daniels

257 votes

1464 votes | Poll has closed

A Look at the Orlando Magic's Third-String Point Guard Options

Ben Q Rock — Tue, 04 Aug 2009 12:00:10 -0000

More photos » by Steve Yeater - AP

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The Orlando Magic's search for a third-string point guard continues in earnest. The team must fill two roster spots to meet the league minimum of 13 players, and GM Otis Smith only has minimum deals at his disposal. Indeed, the Magic must now go bargain shopping after their early-summer spending spree, which included trading for Vince Carter's $16 million contract, matching Dallas' $5.8 million offer to Marcin Gortat, and splitting the mid-level exception on Brandon Bass and Matt Barnes.

C.J. Watson has the perfect combination of youth (he's 25), skills (a career 39% three-point shooter), and desire (he openly campaigned for the Magic to sign him), but the Magic's current financial state means they can't make him an offer Golden State wouldn't match. It's a bummer. Now, Smith has to dig deep. Remember, the Magic can only offer minimum deals. For comparison, the Magic used the $1.9 million bi-annual exception on Anthony Johnson last summer. Depending on the new point guard's NBA experience--minimum deals are based on years of NBA service--he could stand to make less than half of what Johnson does.

After consulting ESPN's list of this summer's free agents, I've come up with a handful of options, each with his own pros and cons. We'll take a look after the jump.

A brief note on methodology: first, I excluded D-League players, since Smith has never made a D-League call-up since taking over as Magic GM. (Orlando's last D-League call-ups were Desmond Penigar and Britton Johnsen, both in 2003/04). Second, I excluded Jason Hart and Mike Wilks, since their agent told the Orlando Sentinel the team has yet to express an interest in either of them.

I've listed these guys in alphabetical order. You can jump to a specific player's assessment by using the links below:

Carlos Arroyo:

The Good: Despite his less-than-stellar reputation in Orlando, which employed him from the 2006 trading deadline until last summer, Arroyo's a decent NBA point guard. He shot 34.5% on three-pointers in his only year under Stan Van Gundy, and is an above-average passer for a backup.
The Bad: He fell out of favor with Van Gundy late in the 2008 season, which resulted in his appearing in only 4 playoff games, for a total of 30 minutes. Losing the backup job to Keyon Dooling is nothing of which to be ashamed, but the abrupt manner in which it happened suggests that Van Gundy reached the end of his rope with Arroyo fairly quickly. Not much has changed, in terms of the offense, since Arroyo bolted for Israel last summer, which is to say the same challenges he faced two seasons ago are still in place.
The Verdict: Part of me thinks Arroyo would be a solid, safe choice. The other part of me recalls his at times poor decision-making--we're calling Hedo Turkoglu-esque levels of befuddlement here--and wonders if there's really a role for him in Orlando. After being top dog with Maccabi Tel Aviv for a year, would he happily settle into a backup role behind Jameer Nelson? And would Nelson react negatively to Arroyo's waiting in the wings? With Arroyo, there are more questions than answers, which leads me to believe Orlando would do well to look elsewhere.

Head back to the top.

Anthony Carter:

The Good: One of the best distributors and defenders on this list, even at age 34. He's heady and hardworking, and dished 4.7 assists to just 2 turnovers per game off Denver's bench last season. He'd also be willing to play for the minimum, which is the salary he earned last season.
The Bad: Expect to read the following sentiment often in this list - he's a bad three-point shooter, with a career conversion rate of 23.8%. About the best analagy I have for him is that he's like Anthony Johnson, without the range. And yes, it's totally reasonable for that sentence to turn you off a bit. We saw last season, particularly in the playoffs with Rafer Alston running the show, what happens to the Magic's offense when its point guard isn't a three-point threat. Carter, we think, would perhaps make the wiser play and drive the ball, rather than settle for the open trey--and thus play into the opposing defense's hands--as Alston frequently did.
The Verdict: There's something to be said for consistency, and Carter provides that. Orlando could do worse than to sign Carter, and all told he's probably the best option, poor shooting be darned.

Head back to the top.

Juan Dixon:

The Good: It's hard for me to get a read on him. His size (6'03", 164 pounds) indicates he's a point guard, but his career body of work suggests he's more of an off guard. Either way, about the best we can say for Dixon is that he's improved as a passer in each of the last two seasons, with assist rats of 23.3% and 22.7%. He's also a decent three-point shooter, with a career mark of 34.1%, and he shot 41.7% two years ago.
The Bad: Defense. A PER of 20.5 allowed to opposing point guards last season. As it is, his size makes him a liability on that end. Couple that with his declining athleticism--he'll turn 31 in training camp--and you have a small point guard who can't move laterally. A disaster defending the pick-and-roll.
The Verdict: Dixon doesn't bring much to the table, at least as far as the Magic are concerned. He was hardly good enough to take minutes away from Mike James in point guard-depleted Washington last season, which speaks volumes, given how bad James is. As I understand it, though, Dixon is a positive locker-room influence. So he has that in his favor too.

Head back to the top.

Royal Ivey:

The Good: Ivey's billed as a top-notch defensive specialist and a solid third-string point guard. He can also toss in the occasional three-pointer, with a career percentage of 33.6%, which is hardly great.
The Bad: It appears as though Ivey doesn't live up to his reputation. 82games says Ivey didn't even play 1% of Philadelphia's point guard minutes last season. Two years ago, with Milwaukee, he logged 22% of the Bucks' point guard minutes, and yielded a PER of 22.4 on 55.6% eFG%.
The Verdict: We know he isn't much of a passer. And if he's not a great shooter, and if he can't defend, then what does he bring to the table? Very little, which is why Ivey is little more than a last resort for many NBA teams.

Head back to the top.

Bobby Jackson:

The Good: Even after 12 seasons, Jackson has a little bit left in the tank. He averaged 7.5 points, 3.1 rebounds, and 2 assists per game for Sacramento last season. His toughness has earned him respect throughout the league. An added bonus: his defensive rebounding rate of 12.5% would help him ignite fast breaks by himself. For comparison, Mickael Pietrus posted a DRebRate of 10.9% last season. And after spending last season in 17-win Sacramento, I'm sure he'd leap at the chance to join a contending team.
The Bad: It is entirely possible that Jackson's production would plummet. He'll turn 37 in March, and his respectable three-point shooting (35.4% career) took a huge dive last season (30.5%). As I said with Ivey: if he's not shooting, passing, or able to play defense, then there probably isn't a place for him in today's NBA. Then again, even with his poor shooting last season, he posted a Player Efficiency Rating of 12.4. Lowest of his career? Yup. Better than that of Anthony Johnson or Courtney Lee? Also yup.
The Verdict: If Smith is convinced that BJax has another productive season left in him, he'd be a nice addition to the end of Orlando's bench. There's very little risk involved with any minimum-salary player--not to put too fine a point on it, but they're only earning the minimum--but especially little with Jackson, given his track record.

Head back to the top.

Damon Jones:

The Good: An absolute assassin from long-range, Jones has connected on 39% of his triples, and is just one season removed from canning 41.7%. The man was born to shoot. And to wear goofy suits, apparently, but that's another matter.
The Bad: Jones isn't much of a passer or a defender, which would appear to relegate him to situational duty. That's what a third-stringer does anyway, sure, but he's such a defensive liability that coach Stan Van Gundy could ill-afford to play him for more than a few minutes at a time before other teams start running plays designed specifically to attack him. Another issue is Jones' ego, which may not let him accept a third-string role, even for a contender. It's a shame, since Boston's Eddie House has proven that scoring point guards can help championship teams, even if they don't play great defense.
The Verdict: Assuming Van Gundy--who coached Jones in Miami during the 2004/2005 season--could keep Jones' ego in check, he'd be a decent signing. Not great, or even good, but decent. Orlando's offense needs three-point shooting, and Jones can provide that above all else.

Head back to the top.

Brevin Knight:

The Good: Well, he can pass the ball on offense, and the can take it away on defense. His Pure Point Rating--John Hollinger's improved assist-to-turnover ratio stat--of 6.5 last season would have led the Magic.
The Bad: A complete and utter offensive zero. Here's Hollinger on Knight's 2007/08 season:

Knight led the league in the percentage of his shots that were long twos for a second straight season, with his total increasing from 62.0 percent last year to 69.2 percent this year.

Looked at another way, Knight was one of 10 players to take fewer than 30 percent of his shots from inside. The other nine all made at least 96 3-pointers -- Knight didn't make any. Layups and 3-pointers are the game's most rewarding shots, and he couldn't generate either, which helps explain his brutal TS% (which ranked 66th out of the league's 71 point guards).

Knight also rarely created shots -- he had the second lowest usage rate at his position. And while he ranked second in the NBA in assist ratio, it was largely because he couldn't create a shot for himself.

And if he's lost yet another step? Yikes.
The Verdict: If I'm going to discount Jones for being a defensive liability, I must also discount Knight for his offensive shortcomings. The idea of having arguably the best distributing backup point guard in the NBA might entice Otis Smith, but I'm not sure it'd be enough to offset Knight's inability to score. It's not like he's going to get hot from long range one night. In 729 career games--more than 18000 minutes--he's made exactly 16 three-pointers. What it boils down to is a calculated risk. Do you bank on Knight's veteran savvy compensating for his diminished physical skills? Or do you play it safer with another pass-first, shoot-second guard?

Head back to the top.

Tyronn Lue:

The Good: He spent half of last season on the Magic's sidelines, as Orlando acquired him two days after Nelson suffered a season-ending shoulder injury. Zach McCann says he's a good influence in Orlando's locker room, a sentiment with which I agree. Additionally, the man can shoot: 39.1% on three-pointers for his career, and he's getting better with age, connecting on 45.3% in his last two seasons combined.
The Bad: The Magic must not have seen much in Lue, as they traded for Rafer Alston at the deadline, thus relegating Lue to the end of the bench on most nights.
The Verdict: Apparently, the Magic don't think as highly of Lue as I do, as all signs here point to the Magic's letting him go. It's a shame, because his three-point shooting and intelligent play make him a better third-stringer than most, in my estimation.

Head back to the top.

Ronald "Flip" Murray

The Good: Murray just turned in his best professional season, scoring 12.2 points per game in a reserve role for the Atlanta Hawks. He matched franchise two-guard Joe Johnson in three-point shooting (36%, a career-high) and exceeded him in overall field-goal shooting (44.7%, also a career-high). And although he wasn't much of a playmaker for Atlanta (14% assist rate), he's just one year removed from a 27.5% assist rate in a season he split between Indiana and Detroit. Hooray for versatility.
The Bad: His percentages have "fluke" written all over them. Plus, after a great season in which he earned $1.5 million, he might seek a raise.
The Verdict: For the right price, he might be a decent pickup. Orlando could use some scoring off its bench.

Head back to the top.

Mike Taylor:

The Good: He's young (23) and athletic (dunk of the year). That athleticism helps him get into the lane, where he takes 42% of his shots, converting at a 45.9% clip while also getting blocked 14% of the time.
The Bad: Absolutely, positively, cannot shoot unless it's a layup. 32.5% on threes, 69.1% at the foul line, and a 41.2% mark from the field overall. His turnover rate of 19.4% would have been the worst mark on last year's Magic team by far, worse even than Johnson's 16.4% figure. And his playmaking ability leaves much to be desired.
The Verdict: Were it not for his age, we probably wouldn't even be discussing him right now. There's a chance that, with the proper guidance, he could turn into a fairly decent point guard. However, Orlando is in win-now mode, and doesn't have the time, in my estimation, to try to bring its third-string point guard up to speed.

Head back to the top.

Jamaal Tinsley:

The Good: He's a tremendous passer, with a career Pure Point Rating of 5.9 (Jameer Nelson's is 3.5). If nothing else, he can run an offense. And he's nothing if not in shape, having sat out all of last season as the Indiana Pacers, his then-current employer, banished him from the team and shipped the contents of his locker to his Atlanta home. He and the Pacers recently reached a buyout agreement, allowing him to become an unrestricted free agent.
The Bad: Stop me if you've heard this before: he's a poor shooter, especially from three-point range. Although people who have seen him swear he's in great shape, sitting an entire year out, at age 31, means he might have some catching up to do in training camp no matter his destination.
The Verdict: If his character issues are indeed behind him--you'll recall his involvement in the 2004 Pacers/Pistons brawl, his participation in a barfight in downtown Indianapolis, and his being the target of a drive-by shooting (which in itself is not a crime)--if he's willing to play for the minimum, and if he's in shape, then he might be the best option on this list. You'll notice, though, the abundance of qualifiers attached to that statement. Smith is a risk-taker, sure, but he's yet to roll the dice by acquiring anyone with Tinsley's sort of reputation, which leads us to believe he won't start now. And he went on the record last year as saying Tinsley wasn't an option then.

Head back to the top.

Jacque Vaughn:

The Good: Vaughn is a tremendous passer with good offensive instincts, with a career assist rate of 24%, including 27.6% last year. And even at his advanced age--he'll turn 35 in February--he's a decent defender.
The Bad: He's coming off a season in which he shot 32% from the field in 292 total minutes. Even before that, he wasn't much of a scoring threat, as he's 8 years removed from his career-high scoring average of 6.6 points per game. The Spurs demoted him in favor of the rookie George Hill, which paid off fairly well.
The Verdict: He fits into the Carter mold as a pass-first, pass-second, shoot-third type. That San Antonio--an organization as worthy of emulation as any other in professional sports--essentially deemed him not worth playing much speaks volumes. Then again, he was last year what he'd be this year: an emergency point guard. He's not a great option for Orlando, but an okay one.

Head back to the top.

Jason Williams:

The Good: He was the starting point guard on the Miami Heat's 2006 championship team. And in spite of his reputation as a poor decision-maker--"too much French pastry," as Dick Vitale might say--he actually takes decent care of the ball.
The Bad: The man has practically nothing left to offer. I defer to Kelly Dwyer for more:

Don't try it, because I'm going to laugh in your face if you try to tell me he can make up for [his poor defense] on the other end, not when he's two years removed from shooting 38.4 percent from the floor. I'd love to see him try one more 45-foot bounce pass before riding off into the sunset, but the Knicks would be well-served to try the D-League first to round out their roster.

He's the most recognizable name on this list, sure. But if you didn't know it were him, but instead only knew that he'd turn 34 in November and that he can't shoot, you probably would dismiss him immediately.
The Verdict: With all that said, he's probably not the worst defender on this list, and is probably one of the better passers. Signing him to be the third-stringer wouldn't be an utter disaster, I don't think, but he's not the most attractive option.

Head back to the top.

It's become readily apparent that Smith won't find a perfect candidate. None of these guys is a home-run, even at a minimum salary. The ones who can shoot don't pass, the ones who can pass can't shoot, and very few of them play defense. Not a great situation, sure. Then again, Orlando's done quite well for itself this summer, and it's hardly the only team looking for point guard help. All Otis needs to do is to sign the one he feels is the best possible fit to a minimum deal. Then he can move on to that 14th roster spot, likely a big man, and call it a summer.

Liberty Links: Veteran point guards

jsams — Tue, 21 Jul 2009 18:41:25 -0000

Often times a general manger is praised and/or criticized for the "big" players he signs. See: Elton Brand, Andre Iguodala, Samuel Dalembert. But where would the Sixers have been without the additions of Donny-Ice, Theophilus Ratliff, or Royal Ivey last season?

Ed Stefanski inked Donyell Marshall to a contract worth the veteran's minimum last summer, and not only did Donny-Ice almost single-handedly win four or five games for the Sixers, but tutored the young guys as well. It is safe to say Ed got his monies worth.

Signing a player to the veteran's minimum is always a no-risk, high-reward deal. Sometimes they work out like Donny-Ice, and sometimes they ride the bench the entire season like Kareem Rush.

This summer the Sixers are being very frugal with their cash, and rightfully so. However; it is absolutely essential for them to find a point guard, preferably a veteran, to play alongside Lou and Jrue. Signing the "right" veteran could be huge for the Sixers success, both short-term and long-term. And I don't think Ed can go wrong with any of these no-risk, high-reward guys.

Courtesy Dei Lynam:

Jason Hart

Hart has never been a guy who is careless with the basketball, averaging less than 1 turnover for his career in almost 16 minutes of playing time. He's 31 years old, which would be a nice addition to a young team. Like Royal Ivey did last season, Hart would get after it on the defensive end.

Carlos Arroyo

Arroyo has made 113 NBA starts. He battled with Jameer Nelson for the starting spot in Orlando two seasons ago and could provide the perfect competition for Lou Williams and Jrue Holiday.

Brevin Knight

Five years ago, Knight tied Steve Nash for the NBA's assist leader. He has had his fair share of injuries over the years, with his 80 games played in his rookie season, the highest total of his 12 year career.

Tyronn Lue

But Lue has had a fine career that began with the Lakers, where he won two NBA titles. He had his best years with the Hawks, for whom he started 76 games of the 189 that he played in. Over his career, he has averaged just 3 assists per game - but he's also a 39 percent three point shooter.

Juan Dixon

Juan Dixon is the familiarity free agent. Dixon played for Eddie Jordan in Washington, where he got his NBA start after an outstanding college career at the University of Maryland.

Bobby Jackson

[Jackson] can play either guard position, which would be appealing to the Sixers with Jordan's offensive scheme. He can make a three pointer and he has defensive skills, even at his age.

Luther Head

Head spent the first three-plus years of his NBA career in Houston, before being waived this past February. But in his second year with the Rockets, he shot 44 percent from the three, and averaged 11 points.

I prefer Arroyo, Knight or Hart.

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Miscellaneous Links

BDL ranks Andre Miller as the second best restricted free agent, just ahead of Ike Diogu. Yikes.

The Sixers rank 17th in the Hoop Doctors early power rankings.

Brian breaks down where the bigs should play, and for how long.

Chad Ford says the Sixers have had the 26th best off-season.

Ed Stefanski on how the Sixers compare to the rest of the Eastern Conference powerhouses.

"We have to get to where those teams are," Stefanski said. "Right now, they're in the right position as far as playing for championships, and they're adding pieces. We have a plan we're following, and we feel we're heading in the right direction. It's not going to happen overnight."

Old School Plan

Jeff Clark — Sun, 05 Jul 2009 17:22:43 -0000

More photos » by Steve Babineau - NBAE/Getty Images

"Remember the good old days?"

Browse more photos »

Paul Pierce is 31 years old. Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett are each 33 right now (Ray will be 34 at the end of the month). The Celtics main target this offseason, Rasheed Wallace, will be 35 when the season starts. Another free agent target is Grant Hill, who will be 37 in October.

To quote Master PO in the comments:

Hill, Sheed, Garnett, Pierce, Allen. If we get any more Veteran than this, we will need more than Billy Walker – we will actually need "walkers" and maybe some adult diapers.

The strategy makes sense really. When you have 3 superstars making the kind of scratch that our guys make, you have to fill in the gaps with low price talent and/or pay the luxury tax. Last year the team attempted to do the former with mostly younger players. But as Doc mentioned, when we lost key players, we got real young real fast. So the team appears to have adopted a different course.

Doc said he wanted veterans. The younger veterans (Hedo, Ariza, Gortat) were all out of our price range. So Danny has focused more on the older veterans looking for one last contract and a run at the championship. It is possible that Ainge might be able to land Rasheed and Grant Hill, though it will cost ownership some money. Zach Lowe breaks it down like this:

Remember, the C's already have about $73 million committed next season, with the luxury tax expected to be somewhere around $68 million. Toss in the mid-level ($5.6 million or so) for Wallace, say, $5 million for Davis, a $2 million bi-annual exception for a wing player (Doc is meeting with Grant Hill, FanHouse reports), and you're already up to nearly $86 million-which is equivalent to shelling out $104 million once the luxury tax is factored in. And it remains unclear who will back up Rajon Rondo next season.

First of all, I'm not sure Davis will actually command $5M on the open market. On the other hand, when you start to add it all up like that, I wonder if the Celtics would bring Davis back for any price (if they land Wallace). There are other things the Celtics could do to shed salary (maybe by trading Tony Allen to the Griz for a draft pick we'll never use?) but it seems that the ownership will be on the hook for some luxury cash this year. I'm also not sure what Grant Hill's price tag will be (but we do have Doc and a chance at a title on our side).

I'm sure that Danny is exploring all sorts of options, but one plan might just be to sign Wallace, Hill, and Tyronn Lue (32 years old) and call it a day (meaning let Big Baby walk for the best offer he can get). That would give us a solid 9-10 man rotation with the option of trading Scal's expiring contract for mid season help.

The added benefit of signing older vets to short term contracts is that they line up nicely with the rest of the Big 3 - both in contract expiration dates and career goals.

If everyone is healthy, that's a pretty solid, savvy, veteran group that could very well win the title. Of course with that many thirtysomethings, you almost have to bank on a few injuries. So what do you think? Is this plan reasonable? Would you sign up for it?

Poll

Would you be happy with signing Sheed, Grant Hill, and Ty Lue?

Yes

1895 votes

No

408 votes

2303 votes | Poll has closed