SB Nation - Lorenzen Wright

A Look at the Orlando Magic's Last-String Power Forward/Center Options

Ben Q Rock — Tue, 18 Aug 2009 12:00:11 -0000

Not so long ago, I took a look at potential free-agent point guards whom the Orlando Magic could sign to fill out their bench. Team GM Otis Smith has made it clear that point guard is his highest priority; he's also made it clear that he'd also like to add another big man to the roster. With no movement on the point guard front--except the rumor that Smith is still pursuing restricted free agent C.J. Watson via a sign-and-trade with Golden State--it's high time we look at potential power forwards and centers Orlando could probably sign on the cheap.

The operative word is "cheap." As we've noted previously, the Magic are over the salary cap and have used both the mid-level and bi-annual exceptions, meaning they can only sign players to minimum contracts. NBA experience determines the specific finances of said deals, about which you can read here.

Unfortunately for the Magic, the best minimum-salary bigs have already signed. Joe Smith spurned the Cleveland Cavaliers to latch on with the Atlanta Hawks, while Rasho Nesterovic has re-upped with the Toronto Raptors after a one-year detour with the Indiana Pacers and, in arguably the best signing of the summer, the Cavs landed the productive-but-injury-hobbled power forward Leon Powe. Thus, there are few standouts on this list. Bear in mind that whomever Orlando chooses will be last on the depth chart, behind two All-Stars (Dwight Howard and Rashard Lewis), two youngsters combining to earn nearly $10 million this season (Marcin Gortat and Brandon Bass), and the second-year player whom the team views as a long-term building block (Ryan Anderson). In short, the Magic's mystery signee will hardly play, so he need not be exceptional.

After the jump, brief breakdowns of no fewer than 17 free-agent power forwards and centers who are still on the market.

And, as with the point guard piece, I've excluded D-Leaguers, because Smith has never made a D-League call-up in his tenure as Orlando's GM.

Calvin Booth:

The Good: Booth has parlayed his exceptional shot-blocking skills into a 10-year career in which he's earned nearly $36 million. He still has the touch, averaging a block per every 13 minutes played over his last two seasons, which he's split between Philadelphia, Minnesota, and Sacramento. And he'd undoubtedly accept a minimum contract.
The Bad: Just about everything else. He's not much of a scorer or rebounder, and one wonders if he'll even sign in the NBA this year as teams plan to carry fewer players due to the weak economy.
The Verdict: In spite of everything, he's hardly the worst name on this list, which should keep him in the conversation.

Head back to the top.

Jarron Collins:

The Good: Regarded as a stout, heady defender--just like his twin brother, whom we'll discuss shortly--Jarron Collins has carved out a respectable 8-year career despite having no discernible offensive skills. The contributions that have kept him in the league this long must go beyond the box score, since his per-game stats (4.3 points, 3.1 boards, 0.2 blocks in 16.9 minutes) are far from exceptional.
The Bad: As with most of the guys on this list, Jarron Collins is a zero on offense.
The Verdict: Think of Jarron as a younger version of Adonal Foyle, minus the rebounding and shot-blocking. In other words, think of him as Adonal Foyle, minus the skills that have kept him in the league.

Head back to the top.

Jason Collins:

The Good: Jason's career has eerily mirrored that of his brother but he enjoys a higher profile due to his presence on the New Jersey Nets' Eastern Conference Championship-winning teams in 2001/2002 and 2002/2003.
The Bad: Statistically speaking, he's worse than Jarron, in spite of his higher profile. Despite hardly straying more than 10 feet from the immediate basket area on offense, he's a career 41% shooter (Jarron's more efficient, but still unacceptable, with a career 45.9% mark from the field) . For some perspective, two years ago, Rashard Lewis shot 40.9%...from three-point range. "Awful" really doesn't begin to describe Jason's offensive ability.
The Verdict: Unless his great reputation somehow precedes him, it's hard to imagine Jason Collins playing in the NBA this season. Jarron is the better option of the two.

Head back to the top.

Melvin Ely:

The Good: If nothing else, Ely's built like a semi truck. Listed at 6'10" and 260 pounds, but likely heavier, Ely can take up space in the paint.
The Bad: But in all likelihood, when he's in there offensively, he's not doing much good. Discounting dunks and tip-ins, Ely converted just 31.3% of his shots in the immediate basket area last season. You'd almost prefer him to step out and take a jumper, which he's willing to do. 82games classifies nearly one-third of Ely's shots last season, as jumpers, which he converted at a 33.3% clip.
The Verdict: Maybe the Magic could live with Ely's considerable offensive shortcomings if he could at least rebound, but even then he's mediocre, with a career rebound rate of 11.7%, which puts him in Brian Cook (11.2% career) territory. He's a poor all-around player who hardly cracked New Orleans' rotation last season, despite their dearth of frontcourt talent. With all that said, Smith tried to acquire Ely from Charlotte at the 2007 trading deadline, so we at least know he was on Smith's radar at one point. For Orlando's purposes, it's probably best if he isn't.

Head back to the top.

Adonal Foyle:

The Good: Say what you will about his poor hands and finishing ability, but Foyle's still a tremendous defender, rebounder, and shot-blocker. I stumbled all over myself in order to praise Foyle after his first appearance last season, in which coach Stan Van Gundy called upon him to defend Yao Ming. Foyle responded with 4 points, 7 boards, and 3 blocked shots against the NBA's most offensively skilled center, in relief of the foul-maligned Howard. And, on the non-basketball side of the equation, Foyle's a great guy to have in the locker room, and as someone who eschews stories about athletes' intangibles, that's not something to take lightly
The Bad: Outside of the occasional put-back attempt, all Foyle can do on offense is set screens and box out.
The Verdict: Whichever team signs Foyle--if he's even in the league at all--will get some bang for its buck. He's worth the money for his locker-room wisdom--not a vocal leader, but more of a quiet, willing, mentor--alone. The fact that the Magic re-signed him last season solely to be a sparring partner for Howard during practices attests to his "intangible" value, and all told, he's in the upper tier of players on this list.

Head back to the top.

Aaron Gray:

The Good: In two seasons with Chicago--which owns his restricted free-agent rights, giving it the ability to match any offer another team makes for his services--the 24-year-old Gray has shown flashes of being a solid, rotation-caliber player. Consider, for instance, his career per-36-minute averages of 12.4 points and 10.5 boards. Not bad for a second-round draft pick, and arguably better than another second-rounder from the 2007 draft class who recently signed for $3 million annually.
The Bad: He's noted for his utter lack of athleticism and speed, and the Bulls would likely match a minimum-salary offer, meaning the Magic would have to obtain him in a sign-and-trade deal.
The Verdict: Physical limitations aside, Gray has decent low-post, back-to-the-basket scoring instincts, and would be worth a long-term investment were it not for the more than $100 million Orlando has tied up in Howard and Gortat over the next several seasons. If he can be had cheaply, he might be the best fit for Orlando of any player listed here. That possibility seems very remote, however.

Head back to the top.

Juwan Howard:

The Good: The opposite of Gray in many respects, as a been-there, done-that veteran. He's lasted quite awhile, hasn't he? Howard, at age 35, appeared in 42 games last season, no doubt surprising countless television viewers who assumed he'd been out of basketball for quite some time. Last season, his 15th in the league, he set a new career-high by shooting 51% from the field. And he's earned a reputation as a good locker-room presence
The Bad: If the Magic want rebounding from their end-of-the-bench big man--and why wouldn't they?--they aren't going to find it with Howard, whose total rebound rate of 9.9 last season puts him in (here comes that phrase again!) Brian Cook territory.
The Verdict: My guess is that he doesn't have much of anything else to contribute at the NBA level. He's probably not a markedly better option for Orlando than, say, either of the Collins twins.

Head back to the top.

Othello Hunter:

The Good: In extremely limited minutes for the Atlanta Hawks last season--92, to be precise--Hunter posted encouraging numbers. 8.6 points per 36 minutes isn't great, but the 9.4 boards and 15.3% rebounding rate? That's encouraging. And at 23, there's potential for long-term development.
The Bad: He's listed at just 6'08" and 225 pounds, making him a less-than-ideal size for the position. Plus, the Hawks didn't think highly enough of him to play him very often, although that might be more of an indictment of coach Mike Woodson's ability to manage players than it is of Hunter's skills.
The Verdict: Based on the small sample size, Hunter appears to be worth at least a training-camp invitation; I'd stay away from offering him a guaranteed deal until he shows what he's got in the preseason. He might stand to earn more money overseas, but at the same time, he might not want to give up on the NBA just yet. Put him at or around the top of the list, for now.

Head back to the top.

Sean Marks

The Good: Based on what I've seen, there aren't many scrappier players in the NBA. Marks is a decent rebounder (13% rebound rate) and an average shot-blocker (1.4 blocks/36 career) who plays hard. 110% and all that.
The Bad: Utterly anemic offensively, with a career 44.9% mark from the field, although he's a combined 49.5% in his last two seasons. All the hustle in the world can't put the ball in the basket.
The Verdict: He's one of the main reasons the Hornets traded for Emeka Okafor and signed Ike Diogu this summer, as Marks just doesn't belong in a contender's rotation. But in Orlando, as the 6th big man, he wouldn't be in the rotation. Not a great option, but certainly not the worst, either.

Head back to the top.

Mikki Moore:

The Good: He's only 2 years removed from averaging 8.5 points and 6 rebounds per game with Sacramento, with a respectable Player Efficiency Rating of 11.5.
The Bad: Last year, the Boston Celtics signed Moore after the Kings bought him out, hoping he'd approximate the contributions P.J. Brown made to their championship team in 2008. Predictably, it didn't work out. Moore plays hard and means well, but was so utterly lost defensively in Boston that coach Doc Rivers couldn't count on him when the games mattered more. Indeed, Moore played only 66 minutes in the postseason, while Brian Scalabrine--Brian Scalabrine!--played 246. If that's not a strike against Moore, I'm not sure what is.
The Verdict: As a sixth big man--as opposed to the third in injury-riddled Boston--Moore isn't such a bad option. And he'd actually have a fair amount of time to learn Van Gundy's defensive rotations, as opposed to last year, when he had to take a crash-course in Boston's plans. He wouldn't be a bad pickup, but certainly wouldn't be a great one, either.

Head back to the top.

Johan Petro:

The Good: His rebounding and blocked-shots statistics compare favorably to Marks', and he's 10 years younger to boot.
The Bad: His offense, though, is also similar to Marks. Worse, it's on the decline. In his first two seasons, he shot a combined 51.4% from the field. In his last two? 41.8%, a staggering drop-off due to his over-reliance on an iffy jumper. Yikes. Now the Magic wouldn't ask him--or anyone on this list, really--to create any offense for himself. But you'd nonetheless like whomever they sign to be able to bang an open jumper every now and again, as Tony Battie did last year, and as Brandon Bass will do (much more effectively) this year.
The Verdict: I'm lukewarm on Petro, which makes him better than almost everyone on this list. Of the young players, he seems the most likely to be available for the minimum.

Head back to the top.

Malik Rose:

The Good: Rose would bring championship experience to Orlando, as he won titles with the San Antonio Spurs in both 1999 and 2003. These weren't cheap rings for Rose, as he averaged 12.9 minutes per game in '99 and 24.5 in '03.
The Bad: Did the absence of any skills analysis in the last paragraph tip my hand? Rose doesn't have anything in the tank anymore, it appears. His Player Efficiency Ratings in the last three years are in the single-digits, and his rebounding rates have dipped into the 11-and-12 range. He never was an offensive stalwart, having never shot better than 47.7% from the field in any of his 13 professional seasons, and he hasn't so much as cracked 40% in any of his last 4 seasons.
The Verdict: Rose has enjoyed a decent career by most metrics, but his skills have diminished too sharply to justify granting him a roster spot.

Head back to the top.

James Singleton:

The Good: The 28-year-old James is coming off a career season with the Dallas Mavericks, averaging 5.1 points per game, in just 14.9 minutes, while shooting 52.9% from the floor. His ability to finish inside boosted his field-goal percentage, as he converted a stellar 71.4% of his shots in the immediate basket area in 2008/2009. For comparison's sake, consider that Dwight Howard shot 62.2% and Marcin Gortat shot 63.4% in the same situations.
The Bad: First, there's the question of how much Hall-of-Fame point guard Jason Kidd inflated Singleton's stats; they'd almost certainly return to Earth in Orlando, even potentially playing alongside All-Star point guard Jameer Nelson. Second, there's probably no way Dallas wouldn't match a minimum contract offer for his services, as he is a restricted free agent, and owner Mark Cuban is a freakin' billionaire (the Magic's decision to match his offer to Gortat doesn't figure into this analysis, because Cuban would match a minimum offer to Singleton regardless of the team that extended it). Finally, he's more of a combo forward than a true big man, although he still played roughly 80% of his minutes at power forward last season.
The Verdict: If the Magic can somehow find a way to grab him, their fans wouldn't have much reason to complain. He'd be worth it, even when one accounts for the statistical decline in his play without Kidd. Let me put it this way: the Magic's chances of signing him are so infinitesimally remote that he's hardly worth considering, but I included him in this post anyway because he was, frankly, just that impressive last season.

Head back to the top.

Brian Skinner:

The Good: One can take or leave Skinner's rebounding--15.1% career rate, 13.9% last year with the Clippers--but that block rate (3.6% career, 4.6% last year and 6.0% the year before) deserves some attention. Skinner is perhaps the quintessential, defensive-minded, end-of-the-bench big man. His overall statistics last year suggest that, even at 33, he's an NBA-caliber player.
The Bad: In the tradition of many mediocre NBA bigs, he tends to shoot a lot of jumpers at a low percentage.

Also, this goatee.
The Verdict: Skinner, it seems to me, is the sort of emergency big man who's not going to greatly aid his team's cause when he's on the floor... but he's not going to hurt it, either. That's about all you can ask from a sixth big man, which is why I endorse Skinner more strongly than I do any of the other veterans on this list, save for Foyle.

Head back to the top.

Stromile Swift:

The Good: He has a bad reputation for never living up to his potential--he was the second overall pick of the 1999 draft--but he's actually carved out a decent career. In 2003/04, under the tutelage of Hubie Brown, he posted a Player Efficiency Rating of 19.7, for instance, and his career PER is an above-average 16.7. So he's not as bad a player as some people might expect due to the negativity surrounding him, which stems from his high draft position.
The Bad: Sadly, Swift's mother passed away in February, which (obviously) upset him very much. He was "inconsolable," according to his agent, and a week later, the Nets waived him after his agent talked things over with GM Kiki Vandeweghe. He signed with Phoenix--where he played with Magic free-agent signee Matt Barnes, who also lost his mother recently--but did not contribute much. In short, it's been a tough year for Swift, and concerns remain about his readiness to play basketball to the best of his (underrated) ability.
The Verdict: Orlando might be the ideal landing place for Swift, as he'd re-join former teammates Anderson, Barnes, and Vince Carter. He'd also play with Nelson, a team captain and leader, who dealt with the sudden and unexpected death of his father in 2007. In short, he'd be among friends. Of this we can be certain.

Whether Orlando has much use for him, though, is less sure. He's still a great athlete (this dunk is less than two years old!) and, as I mentioned, a somewhat underrated player. If Smith feels as though he can bank on Swift's readiness to contribute in an end-of-the-bench role, then he'd be a solid pickup. But if Swift isn't mentally "there" yet, the Magic shouldn't commit to him when there are other, better options who are ready.

Head back to the top.

Jake Voskuhl:

The Good: At 6'11" and 245 pounds, Voskuhl's a big boy. Yup, that's all I've got.
The Bad: Last year, in Toronto, he posted a PER of 0.4, shot 26.7% from the field, and committed a turnover on almost exactly one-quarter of his possessions used. He also committed one foul for every four minutes he played. He was so cosmically dreadful that Basketbawful coined the term "Voskuhl" for big men whose "combined fouls and turnovers exceed his combined points and rebounds over the course of a game."

And he was no great shakes prior to last season, either.
The Verdict: There's quite simply no compelling reason to believe Voskuhl merits an NBA roster spot at this point in his career.

Head back to the top.

Lorenzen Wright:

The Good: Pardon the echo chamber here, but at 6'11" and 225 pounds, Wright's a big boy..
The Bad: He's probably worse than Voskuhl, if you can believe it. Injuries have limited Wright to 36 games over the last two seasons, in which he's combined to shoot 16-of-48, or 33.3%. No NBA team is ever going to ask Wright to do anything on offense, but his other stats don't indicate he's worth having on the floor. He'll turn 34 in the first week of the season.
The Verdict: Yeah, his NBA days are probably finished. Orlando need not seriously consider Wright, but if there isn't anyone else on the board, they might have to settle for him.

Head back to the top.

A quick survey of the above players shows that only four (Foyle, Gray, Singleton, and Skinner) are near-locks to make an NBA roster this season, which sort of illustrates the talent pool with which we're dealing. Fortunately, the Magic won't require much of their last big man, which makes these choices sightly more attractive. Foyle and Skinner are the best realistic options, at least to me, and the only way Smith can go wrong here is by signing someone on the level of Voskuhl and Wright. In other words, don't get too down on the Magic if, say, Moore is the best they can get for the minimum salary.

The Shopping List

atthehive — Mon, 29 Jun 2009 00:03:53 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

Ike Diogu is one of the 50 front court options NBA teams have this summer.

Browse more photos »

I took a look at our budget last post (1-2 million dollars to sign one player). Now, let's assess what people are going to cost.

I've tried to include every front court free agents (UFA and RFA) that I could find here, but if I missed any, let me know. Big thanks to this list from Depressed Fan and to ESPN player pages. Quick explanation of the table: Restricted refers to UFA/RFA status, competitors refers to projected number of teams that want the player, Salary projection is my estimation of the player's market value, and target refers to whether New Orleans can reasonably target the player (in parantheses is an explanation of why (expensive, etc)).

The full 50 player table after the jump.

Player	Restricted?	Last Salary	Competitors	Projection ($)	Target?
Rasheed Wallace	No	20.1M	3+	10-15	No ($)
Malik Rose	No	11.5M	0	Minimum	No (sucks)
Drew Gooden	No	3.0M	1-2	2-4	Yes ($)
Chris Wilcox	No	10.1M	1-2	2-5	Yes ($)
Stromile Swift	No	0.83M	0-1	Minimum	Yes
Shawn Marion	No	20.1M	3+	12-18	No ($)
Ike Diogu	Yes	8.8M	0-1	2-4	Yes ($)
Lamar Odom	No	20.1M	3+	15-20	No ($)
Paul Millsap	Yes	1.6M	3+	unknown, but $$$	No ($)
Charlie Villanueva	Yes	10.3M	1-2	8-15	No ($)
Joe Smith	No	2.4M	1-2	2-4	Yes ($)
Shelden Williams	No	4.1M	0-1	Minimum	Yes
Maceo Baston	No	4.5M	0-1	1-2	Yes
Cedric Simmons	No	2.7M	0	Minimum	No (sucks)
Marcin Gortat	Yes	0.83M	0	Minimum	No (sucks)
Chris Andersen	No	0.83M	2-3	2-4	Yes (DEN)
Channing Frye	Yes	9.5M	0-1	2-4	No ($, sucks)
Hakim Warrick	Yes	6.4M	1-2	4-8	Yes ($)
David Lee	Yes	6.1M	3+	unknown, but $$$	No ($)
Steve Novak	No	1.0M	0-1	min-3	Yes
Donyell Marshall	No	0.83M	0-1	Minimum	Yes (old)
Ryan Bowen	No	0.83M	0	Minimum	Yes
Michael Ruffin	No	0.83M	0	Minimum	Yes
Shavlik Randolph	No	0.83M	0-1	Minimum	Yes
Leon Powe	Yes	0.83M	3+	Unknown, but $$	No ($)
Glen Davis	Yes	1.0M	2-3	3-7	Yes (BOS)
Raef LaFrentz	No	19.1M	0	Negative	No (sucks)
Rasho Nesterovic	No	12.6M	1-2	3-5	Yes ($)
Jason Collins	No	9.3M	0	Minimum	No (sucks)
Zaza Pachulia	No	8.0M	2-3	4-5	No ($)
Robert Swift	No	7.2M	0	Minimum	Yes
Aaron Gray	Yes	0.83M	0-1	Minimum	Yes
Chris Mihm	No	5.0M	0-1	2-3	Yes
Saer Sene	No	0.83M	0	Minimum	Yes
Jarron Collins	see Jason	4.1M	see Jason	see Jason	see Jason
DJ Mbenga	No	0.96M	0	Minimum	No (sucks)
Calvin Booth	No	2.7M	0	Minimum	No (sucks)
Melvin Ely	No	0.83M	0	Minimum	Yes (sucks)
Ryan Hollins	No	0.83M	0-1	1-2	Yes
Lorenzen Wright	No	0.83M	0	Minimum	Yes (old)
Adonal Foyle	No	0.83M	0	Minimum	Yes (old)
Jamaal Magloire	No	0.83M	0-1	Minimum	Yes (old)
Sean Marks	No	0.83M	0	Minimum	Yes (old)
Theo Ratliff	No	0.83M	0-1	Minimum	Yes (old)
Johan Petro	Yes	5.9M	0-1	2-3	Yes
Jake Voskuhl	No	0.83M	0-1	Minimum	No (sucks)
Marvin Williams	Yes	14.1M	3+	10-15	No ($)
James Singleton	No	0.83M	0-1	Minimum	Yes (DAL)
Walter Herrmann	No	4.0M	0-1	2-4	Yes

So out of the 50 UFA/RFA big men of 2009, the Hornets can put 30 of them on their radar.

As you can see, there are a ton of guys out there. Not all of these guys (or even half these guys, I suspect) are going to find homes next season. Yes, there is a good deal of variance, but the supply is definitely greater than the demand.

There are four tiers the 30 players can be split into.

"Uh Oh, Everybody's Gone And/Or (Probably And) We're Broke."

Among the 30 potential signees, we can probably classify some of them as last gasp options due to suckage, old age, or some combination of the two. Of all the players I gave a 'yes' in the far right column, here are the ones I'd categorize as last resorts:

Steve Novak: The Hornets have gaping holes in their frontcourt, but specifically they need to target rebounders. When David West and Tyson Chandler hit the bench, Byron Scott won't appreciate a big man that spends 99.999% of his time between three point arcs. Novak's rebound rate is barely half of Hilton Armstrong's. Yeah. Consider this the last last resort.
Donyell Marshall- DMarsh is another three point specialist, but he's been a stellar defensive rebounder throughout his career. The issues clearly are that he's 36 years old, and he's nearing retirement. Toss in a recent comment about how he'd want to come in and mentor guys if he joined a new team (nothing on actually playing), and you don't have a great combination.
Michael Ruffin- He's undersized but a fantastic rebounder on offense and defense. The question with him is playing time. He only got 11 games last year, 46 the year before, and 30 before that. Nobody knows how he'd hold up over 82, especially now that he's on the wrong side of 30.
Ryan Bowen- Great hustle, but I don't think I need to elaborate much here.
Shavlik Randolph- Randolph only got in 89 games in his first 4 years in the league. But he's shown some serious potential on the boards. The risk is that if we pin our one rebounding hope on the 25 year old and he blows up, well, we won't be in great shape.
Robert Swift- Showed lots of potential, once upon a time. He's the madly tattooed, infinitely riskier Shavlik Randolph.
Saer Sene- 47 games in three years. He'll be mad cheap, but he's 7'0" and weighs 220 pounds. You tell me how that's gonna end up.
Melvin Ely- Yeah.
Ryan Hollins- I rank Hollins somewhere between Last Resorts and the next category. He's a great shot blocker with good timing, and while he isn't the most impressive defensive boarder, his offensive figures are nice. He brings great energy to both sides of the floor. With Eric Dampier rumored to be on his way out of Dallas, I wonder how much the Mavs will spend to keep him. My feeling is they like him a good bit... and Hollins is only worth it if he comes cheap.
Lorenzen Wright- With age, his offensive boarding figures have slipped badly. And last year, not one, not two, but three teams (ATL, SAC, CLE) tossed him in the their respective trash cans. He brings size (6'11), if not bulk (225), and he has a career full of good defensive rebounding. One of the better Last Resort picks, though it wouldn't be a flashy signing at all.
Adonal Foyle- And if you thought Lorenzen was the antithesis of all things stylish, well, apparently, you've never seen this guy. Most famous for clanging an open 7 footer off the side of the backboard, Foyle's actually a decent option. The problem here is that he spent most of last year injured. Not sure the Hornets are willing to gamble on a 34 year old's health.
Sean Marks- I think Marks is a last resort, not because of his play necessarily, but because it wouldn't go over well with the fans. Most Hornets' supporters are looking for a front court overhaul. The truth is, Marks' 9/18/13.5 rebounding split from last year wasn't shabby at all. An understatedly decent last resort option
Theo Ratliff- Ratliff hasn't been discussed in a basketball context ever since he legally changed his name to The Expiring Contract of Theo Ratliff some time in 2004. Though the dude is older than my pet rock, he provided Philadelphia some boards and some blocks last year. Overall, he's way too old to be considered a good signing.
Johan Petro- I'd rank the Denver center higher (his rebounding numbers are terrific) but he seemingly never plays, and he is straight up horrible at basketball. A center with a 43% true shooting percentage? Unbelievably atrocious.
Stromile Swift- From 2000-2008, SS was a serviceable player. Great rebounder, good shot blocker, coudl even put the ball in the bucket unassisted, once a month. Suddenly everybody forgot about him, and he played nineteen of the most anonymous games in NBA history with NJN and PHO last season. One of those guys where if he goes to the Knicks, everyone will rag on them for getting another overpaid bust, and if he goes to the Spurs, everyone will praise them for getting another underpaid overachiever. If he goes to New Orleans? Who knows.
Walter Herrmann- Imagine Hilton Armstrong with range. (If you can actually do this, I have just one question: are you on drugs?)

"Yeah If We Got Him, Sweet... But We're Not Getting Him"

Glen Davis- Boston is going to keep him. Danny Ainge will re-sign him. Kevin Garnett will continue to make him cry. I don't see many ways around this. Plus, his rebounding is mediocre, his offensive abilities are vastly overrated on the strength of one or two jumpers he made in the playoffs, and he really isn't that great at anything else. So "If we got him, sweet" would probably not be an accurate description of Glen Davis, now that I think about it.
Joe Beast- aka Joe Smith to those unacquainted with his hip hop skills. Smith is kind of like Davis in that his team is probably going to keep him (I can't see Cleveland performing a single action that does not directly contribute towards the appeasement of the Great One). Smith is also kind of not like Davis in that he's actually good at basketball.
Antonio McDyess- Dice is likely out of the Pistons' price range this summer, though they have said they want to keep him. He made 6 million+ last year. I know there's always the chance he takes a pay cut to join a contender... but who really considers the Hornets a contender now any way?
Chris Andersen- The league leader in block rate will be getting some sort of financial upgrade, and probably one from Denver. If not, there will be plenty of teams just salivating at the thought of overpaying the 31 year old.
Hakim Warrick- Warrick is another guy in line for an upgrade on his 1.5 million a year salary. He's not the most efficient scorer, but I'd say he's the most underrated foul drawer in the entire league (6.6 FTA/36, which would be 0.3 more than Chris Paul, without the aid of superstar calls). He's a decent rebounder too. If Memphis doesn't realize what they have on their hands, plenty of others will do the realizing for them.
Marcin Gortat- If recent rumors are to be believed, the Magic are in hot pursuit of Rasheed Wallace and/or Brandon Bass. It sure sounds like they're gearing up to lose their backup power forward. The Gortat situation is a tricky one to read. On the one hand, he made under a million dollars last year. On the other hand, he had a great postseason and pretty much the entire NBA now knows about him. Positives: beastly rebounder, very efficient scorer, brings terrific energy. Downside: fouls a lot, but who really cares. But all this misses a crucial point- several teams have already reportedly discussed offering Gortat a large part of their midlevel exceptions (five million plus).

"Maybe They'll Forgive Us For Not Taking Blair Now"

Radoslav Nesterovic- aka Rasho to those unacquainted with Slovenian. Nesterovic is one of the few 30+ options I wouldn't mind. He has size (7'), bulk (250), and the career rebounding split (10/17/13) to warrant a serious look. The biggest issue would be salary. He made 7 million+ last year alone, and he hasn't earned below 2.5 mil since 2002-2003. If he agreed to take a pay cut with us, that'd be terrific.
Aaron Gray- It's universally agreed that Aaron Gray sucks, but he could help us out big time in the rebounding department. With a 14/22/18 split last year, he would bring rebounding figures that very few free agent bigs could match. He should be dirt cheap (making less than half a million last year on a second rounder contract). With a lot of teams looking at the flashier names, we're likely to receive less competition to sign him. And of course, the kicker is that he's a big from the University of Pittsburgh, something a lot of people seemed to want around these parts.
Shelden Williams- I've always loved Williams. Seemingly not in possession of a neck, he'd be the perfect complement to Hilton "The Ostrich" Armstrong. He posted super awesome terrific rebounding figures with ATL his rookie year before they moved him to Sacramento. He finished last year in Minnesota. He seems universally unwanted, but he'd be a tremendous bargain for the Hornets.
Maceo Baston- Baston's first salary was 20,000 with the Chicago Bulls in 1999. So I'm thinking he might be down to make a couple million with us next year. Last year with Toronto, he posted an 11/15/13 rebounding split in 27 games. He draws fouls at a decent rate and has a nice offensive game. He can also block a few shots here and there. The biggest problem is his size- 6'9" and 215 pounds; I don't know how long he can hold up.
Chris Mihm- Mihm has posted very, very nice rebounding numbers throughout his career. (a career 11/19/14 split). I thought we'd seen the last of him after his sparring session with D.J. Mbenga, but who knows. Could be an attractive option, given the lack of competition and low price.
Jamaal Magloire- 14/24/19 rebounding split last year. That's all you gotta know about the Big Cat. He will rebound the hell out of that ball.
James Singleton- Thanks to reader Scott for e-mailing to me about Singleton. Personally, this would be one of my favorite signings if it happened. Singleton, who broke into the League as a swingman, has seriously bulked up in recent years. He posted a 12/21/16 rebounding split with Dallas last year, terrific numbers for any player, let alone one making the minimum. He was also very efficient at putting the ball in the bucket (the most efficient out of any of the 30 on this list). Want more? He didn't turn the ball over, and Dallas put a fair bit of responsibility on him when he was in the game. And, oh yeah, he has three point range. Unfortunately, it appears we have compeition. Both my Dallas contacts confirmed that the Mavs have definite interest in bringing him back next season, and Singleton seems to like his situation there too. Don't know if it will happen, but Singleton would be an amazing, cheap add.

"The Heavens Have Smiled Upon Us"

Chris Wilcox- Wilcox parlayed a terrific contract year with the Clips into an overpaid two year stint with the SuperThunder. This summer, he's likely to return to his rightful tax bracket, and if so, the Hornets stand to benefit. At a career 9/20/14 rebounding split, Melvin Ely's twin would make Melvin himself a distant memory. Wilcox can also jump out the gym, so Chris Paul could still have an alley-oop partner when he's on the floor with the bench and Tyson's off. Wilcox's defense has been questioned repeatedly... but dude's trying to make the New Orleans Hornets' bench, not the All Defense team. I'd take him in a heartbeat, providing he agrees to slash his salary to the 2 million range.
Ike Diogu- Enter Mr. Diogu. I like Ike, and you should too. He never really got a chance with the GSW, or the IND, or the POR. Finally, he got some minutes with SAC last year, and they were predictably glorious. In the last two games, he dropped 32 on Denver, and 28 on Minnesota (oh, what's that you say about Denver resting its starters and Al Jefferson being injured? I can't really hear you, you're going to have to speak louder). He can rebound, and he draws fouls like a maniac. While he's kind of foul-prone, he doesn't turn the ball over. The kicker? His full name is Ikechukwa Somotochukwa Diogu. Pau Gasol is already recoiling in fear.
Drew Gooden- For a while there, it appeared Gooden's basketball ability had taken a back seat to him cultivating that ridiculous beard. But now all is well. Ever since he left the company of the Great Shining Internationally Renowned Supreme Basketball Talent, Gooden's been looking on the up and up. Rebounding last year? Try 10.4/22.6/16.6. 52.6% true shooting. 11.7% turnovers. 4.0 FTA/36 minutes. The one flaw is that he's lost all ability to put the ball in the bucket from the floor... but I can excuse that. Another downside: Signing the 27 year old Gooden would probably cement Jeff Bower's place as the Greatest GM in the History of Western Civilization.

So there you have it.

50 options -> 30 reasonable options -> 25 actually reasonable options -> 9 actually reasonable and good options -> 3 actually reasonable and very good options. Happy shopping.

The Clippers as Trade Patsies - Recent History Tells a Different Story

Steve Perrin — Tue, 02 Jun 2009 21:28:59 -0000

More photos » by Jim Mone - AP

McHale and the T-Wolves have yet to pay in full for the Cassell-Jaric trade.

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Immediately after the Clippers won the NBA draft lottery, stories began appearing wondering "How will the Clippers screw this up." Our home town paper even called Blake Griffin the loser of the lottery. Some of the trade rumors being circulated would indeed fall into the "screw up" category if they were to happen, which of course they won't. The first pick and Baron Davis for the third pick and Jeff Green? Yeah, that would be a problem. The perception is not limited to this year's draft either - before last year's trade deadline, there were numerous rumors floating about, with the Clippers sending out the likes of Marcus Camby and/or Chris Kaman for the equivalent of a six-pack of tube socks.

The Clippers are dysfunctional in many ways. Owner Donald T. Sterling is rightfully considered the worst owner in the NBA, probably the worst owner in professional sports. His track record as an owner is incredibly bad, and his track record as a human being (which includes mistresses, sexual harassment claims and multiple active racial discrimination lawsuits) is arguably worse. But are the Clippers patsies in NBA trade negotiations? Let's look at a decades worth of trades.

For this exercise, I went back to the 1999 off-season and looked at every single trade transaction involving a starter for any team involved in the trade. Obviously, trades are only one way of building a team, with the draft and free agency being other significant tools in the NBA GM's toolbox. I'll touch on those aspects later, but the main purpose of this post is to objectively examine a decade of Clipper trades.

August 4, 1999 - The Clippers sign and trade Lamond Murray to Cleveland for Derek Anderson and Johnny Newman. Anderson was the team's second leading scorer that season at 16.9 points per game. Murray averaged 15.9 for the Cavs. I would say that Anderson was the better player, but the Clippers allowed him to sign with the Spurs as a free agent the next summer, so it ended up being a wash. Winner: tie.

August 8, 1999 - The Clippers trade Lorenzen Wright to Atlanta for two future first round picks. Those picks become Quentin Richardson (taken 18th in 2000) and Chris Wilcox (taken 8th in 2002). Wright never lived up to his lottery pick promise and although both Richardson and Wilcox are long gone, they were productive players for the Clippers. Winner: Clippers.

June 28, 2000 - The Clippers send a protected future first round pick to the Magic for Corey Maggette, Derek Strong, the draft rights to Keyon Dooling (first round, 10th overall), the draft rights to Dan Langhi (second round, 31st overall) and cash. The Magic were desperately trying to clear cap space to make free agency offers to Grant Hill and Tracy McGrady, but even so, they took a bath on this one. Sometimes it helps to be lucky as well. The protection on the pick the Clippers sent to Orlando was top 21 in 2003, top 15 in 2004 and top 14 in 2005. The year the pick was finally unprotected in 2006, happened to be the best season in Clipper history - so they lost the 22nd pick in the draft, six years after acquiring Maggette. That pick was Marcus Williams (the one from UConn), who is playing in Puerto Rico last I heard. Winner: Clippers in a landslide.

June 27, 2001 - On draft day, the Clippers send the second pick Tyson Chandler and Brian Skinner to the Bulls for Elton Brand. Chandler became a decent player (for New Orleans) and Brand became an all pro. Winner: Clippers by a mile.

July 29, 2002 - In what appeared to be a great idea at the time, the Clippers trade Darius Miles and Harold Jamison to Cleveland for Andre Miller and Bryant Stith (Jamison and Stith are throw-ins). The Clippers needed a point guard, and Miller seemed the ideal candidate. Unfortunately, the trade didn't work out for either team, and Miller was in Denver a year later. Miller has been the better player, but there were no winners in this trade in retrospect. Winner: no one.

June 21, 2004 - Three days before the 2004 draft, the Clippers send the second overall pick to the Bobcats for the fourth overall pick and the 33rd overall pick in the second round. The Bobcats also agree to draft Peja Drobnjak in the expansion draft, part of the Clippers process of clearing salary to pursue free agent Kobe Bryant. The trade boils down to Emeka Okafor for Shaun Livingston, as Lionel Chalmers is out of the league by the next season (btw, Trevor Ariza was drafted 10 sports later at 43). It was a highly questionable trade at the time - the 2004 draft was widely held to be a two-player draft (Okafor and Dwight Howard) and the Clippers should have gotten more for the second pick. In hindsight it was of course disastrous given Livingston's injuries. Winner: Bobcats.

July 29, 2004 - In a theme that would repeat itself four years later, the Clippers find themselves far under the salary cap after being rejected by a superstar free agent (in 2004, it was Kobe Bryant). They use their cap space to trade a future second round pick (the 42nd pick in 2005, Chris Taft) to the Nets for Kerry Kittles $10M contract. The Clippers also got some cash in the deal. Kittles knees and back allow him to play only 11 games for the Clippers. Winner: New Jersey.

August 12, 2005 - In a trade that is already painful for T-Wolves fans, and will get more painful yet, the Clippers acquire Sam Cassell and a lottery protected first round pick for Marko Jaric and Lionel Chalmers in a sign and trade. To make matters significantly worse, the deal Jaric signed at the time still has two more seasons and is considered one of the worst contracts in the NBA. Cassell was instrumental in leading the Clippers further into the playoffs than they've ever been, and they are still owed a first rounder, which remains top 10 protected for two more seasons, but is unprotected in 2012. Winner: Clippers in a landslide BEFORE the draft pick kicks in.

February 14, 2006 - At the trade deadline, the Clippers send Chris Wilcox to Seattle straight up for Vladimir Radmanovic. Both players were in the final year of their contracts - the Sonics re-signed Wilcox, the Clippers lost Radmanovic. But the Clippers won this trade, if only because Vlad was a player they needed and was useful in their playoff run. Winner: Clippers.

July 15, 2008 - As was the case in 2004, the Clippers find themselves with money to spend after Elton Brand bolts for Philadelphia. Denver wants to get under the luxury tax, and send Marcus Camby to the Clippers for the right to swap second round picks in 2010 (the Nuggets won 54 games in 2009, the Clippers won 19 - so it's likely that this 'trade' will end up being literally for nothing). Camby averages 11.1 rebounds (fourth in the league) and 2.1 blocked shots (3rd). Winner: Clippers (though Denver of course got what they wanted also).

November 21, 2008 - The jury is decidedly out on this trade of Cuttino Mobley and Tim Thomas to New York for Zach Randolph and Mardy Collins. Randolph leads the Clippers in scoring and averaging 20 points and 10 rebounds on the season - Collins is a surprisingly versatile player able to contribute at three positions. Meanwhile, Mobley retires with a heart condition, and Tim Thomas gets moved yet again. There's no question who won this trade from a purely basketball standpoint - the Clippers gave up very little, and got a lot of productivity in return. But the Knicks got what they wanted, which is 2010 cap space, and the Clippers of course had to give that up. Add in the non-basketball factors, and you could consider this a terrible trade for the Clippers. Ask me again at the beginning of the 2010 season, because until then the Clippers simply haven't given up anything. Winner: TBD.

There you have it. Eleven trades in the past ten years. And on my score card, I've got the Clippers winning six of them, three of those by a wide margin, and only losing two of them (so far). And yet every rumor out there has the Clippers sending out loads of talent for nothing in return.

What is particularly intereting about the reality of the situation is that the Clippers' reputation as cheapskates is not at all what you see in their recent trade history. Fully three recent major trades saw LA taking on significant additional salary - it was their trade partner, not the Clippers, who were in cost-cutting mode. As it happens, the Kittles trade was a bad idea, and the Randolph trade will likely end up being a bad idea as well, but these aren't bad trades because the Clippers are being cheap - quite the opposite.

I realize that everything in the NBA is interconnected. Looking at trades in a vacuum ignores to some extent the backstory. For instance, it's easy enough to say that the Clippers did well when they traded Lorenzon Wright because Wright wasn't that good - but the Clippers drafted the guy seventh in 1996 (six picks ahead of a guy named Kobe, FWIW), so it's a net loss from screwing up the draft pick.

Worse still than the Clippers draft history is their history of retaining free agents. This too is interconnected. Murray, Wright, Mo Taylor, Michael Olowokandi - all lottery picks who walked at the end of their rookie contracts in LA. And all unworthy of the contracts they signed (or didn't sign, in the case of Kandi). So while the Clippers can scarcely be criticized for not retaining that list of stiffs, if they'd drafted players worth retaining in the first place it would be better for all concerned. And this problem also colors the various trades above. Derek Anderson, Andre Miller, Vlad Radmanovic - all available partly because they were due to be free agents. The Clippers ended up renting them for a year or less in each case because they didn't re-sign them. But on paper, all of those were good trades.

Still, the perception that the Clippers are the team to call if you're looking for a trade partner to fleece is just not justified by the facts. Not that any GM is setting planning to be taken to the cleaners - but if you were to make that sort of comment about Memphis or Minnesota, at least there'd be some precedent on your side.

Lorenzen Wright injury shows why Cavs rested starters

John Bena (aka CavsBlogger) — Fri, 17 Apr 2009 11:42:14 -0000

More photos » by Tony Dejak - AP

The injury to Lorenzen Wright shows why the Cavs decided to rest their starters against Philly (AP Photo/Tony Dejak)

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There has been alot of talk, locally and nationally, about the Cavaliers decision to rest all their starters, specifically in the 2nd half, against the 76'errs the other night, missing out on an opportunity to tie the 85-86 Boston Celtics for the best home record ever. If you are still on the fence, this news should help you decide --

Cavaliers forward/center Lorenzen Wright suffered a left thumb fracture in the second half of last night’s game versus the Philadelphia 76ers at Quicken Loans Arena. Further x-rays and evaluation was done today at Cleveland Clinic Sports Health. He will have surgery tomorrow performed by Dr. Peter Evans (Hand Specialist) and Dr. Rick Parker at the Cleveland Clinic. He is expected to be out six weeks.

Now, the injury itself is not crushing to the Cavs as Wright has been a bit-player all season. But injuries like this occur, and we could easily be talking about Z, or Anderson, or even LeBron.

Kudos to Mike Brown and the team for keeping the focus where it belongs, on winning a championship!

Fear The Links - 10/30/08

John Bena (aka CavsBlogger) — Thu, 30 Oct 2008 11:16:25 -0000

A new feature here at FearTheSword, the daily look around the web at what others are saying about the Cavaliers. I'll add a short snippet from the article and give a few of my thoughts as well. Let's start, shall we?

LeBron and Jay-Z stump for Obama at The Q -- I'll let the following video say it all for me. Regardless of my own political affiliation, I'm not sure about how I feel when athletes, or the Cavaliers for that matter, openly support a political candidate. While LeBron can surely do what he wants, I feel it is in bad taste to get "Cavs Insider" e-mails promoting what was a political rally. That's just me. Here's some video --

LeBron James and Jay-Z at The Q

Mo Williams Knows It Will Take Time To Click -- Mike Brown and Mo Williams were honest with their evluations of Williams in his regular season Cavaliers debut. Brown had this to say about the effort -

Overall I thought he was pretty good. I thought he responded well playing into the fourth quarter for the first time with the starting unit. I wouldn't give him an A, but probably a little bit above average.

Williams didn't disagree --

It went OK, obviously it could have been better. I'm still trying to feel my way. It's going to come with playing more meaningful games. It's just getting to a comfort level. It's not a confidence thing. There's a difference between confidence and comfort. Once I get there, I'll be fine.

When asked how long it would take for him to feel comfortable in the offense, Williams was optimistic -

I don't think it will be long. I don't think it will be long at all. You've got 81 games left in the season, playoffs, etc. It's not the time to get bent out of shape. It's good that we played Boston the first game. They give you a real test in things you have to get better in and things that you have to tighten up in a lot of different areas.

My only disappointment on Williams in Game 1 were the missed open shots that he was specifically brought in to hit. The Cavaliers have been looking for that type of guy for 5 years now and just can't seem to find him. Obviously I am still very optimisitc on Williams, but can anyone blame me when I watch Williams hoist jumpers similar to Larry Hughes and Wally World?

The Cavaliers Are Excited To Come Home -- It might have been a short 1-game trip, but for the Cavaliers, who also played a week's worth of pre-season road games, it feels great to be home again. They entertain the Charlotte Bobcats, one of two teams still waiting to start their season, and I always worry about the effort, especially from a certain #23, when the Cavaliers are facing a team they consider to be an inferior opponent. LeBron tells me I shouldn't be concerned -

We approach it like it's our last game of the season, like it's a game we need to get into the playoffs

I certainly hope LeBron is speaking the truth. The Cavaliers found out last year just how important home court advantage is in the playoffs. The difference between a 50-55 win team and a 45-48 win team are wins in games like this.

History, unfortunately, isn't on the Cavaliers side. The team is 13-25 in Home Openers, including a complete stinker last year against the Dallas Mavericks.

The Cavs Lack The Depth Up Front -- Patrick McManamon thinks that Cavaliers might be short a big man who can provide offense --

The Cavs might be one big guy short. That's because they traded Smith for Williams, a move to add a point guard. It was a move that needed to be made but did hurt, because losing Smith is not insignificant.

Rookie forward J.J. Hickson played a lot in the preseason but didn't play at all in the opener. Those minutes went to Lorenzen Wright. Perhaps one game is too early to judge Wright, but he did not provide the offense from the short-range jump shot that Smith did.

Most nights, the Cavaliers will be able to counter-act the dificiency with better players. In the playoffs, against quality opponents with solid depth, they will struggle at times, as they did against Boston. Personally, I think the situation will be resolved sometime in February with the Wally-Bullet. What remains to be seen is which big man will be available.

Peachtree Hoops Sizes Up "An opposing team's scout sizes up the Hawks"

Hoopinion — Sun, 26 Oct 2008 11:00:06 -0000

Semi-anonymous blogger provides commentary on an anonymous scout's off-the-cuff description (as published at SI.com) of the Atlanta Hawks? This should prove a busy day for the upper right portion of the ultimately pointless/ironic blog post characteristics graph.

An opposing team's scout sizes up the Hawks

Expectations have risen by making the playoffs and having a great showing against Boston. Yet they only won 37 games last year. Keeping things in perspective, they've got to find a way to improve, because winning 37 is not going to make the playoffs in the improved East.

I concur.

Who is their lead player? Joe Johnson tends to not take the last shot as much as you'd expect from a franchise player. You can tell a lot about him from his decision to go to a losing team by leaving a team that could've paid him good money and helped him win a championship. He hasn't done much in recent years to change that opinion. I've watched them play a lot, and he's a talented kid. But I'm not a fan. He's a good third player on a contending team. But he's not the guy you build around.

Micah Hart beat me to taking this bit of nonsense to task. I added the following comment to Micah's fine post:

That scout obviously doesn't watch the Hawks that often if he thinks "Joe Johnson tends to not take (sic) the last shot."

As to his other point, hey, Joe Johnson was the fourth-best player on a contending team when the Hawks chose to build around him. One could give the scout the benefit of the doubt and assume that he's very obliquely implying the obvious fact that Joe Johnson is a better player now, in Atlanta, than he ever was in Phoenix.

In fact, the predictability with which (and the predictability with how) Joe Johnson takes the last shot lead me to be extraordinarily (and, arguably, counter-productively) contrary in answering the Daily Dime's 9.2 seconds left question.

Al Horford was great. He would have been my vote for Rookie of the Year. Last year you did what you could to keep him off the boards. This year people have seen him, and they're not going to let him get as many free looks. People know he can shoot mid-range jump shots. He's a little jerky in his stroke, but he can make them. I think he's a Buck Williams-type guy in a lot of ways. Every time I've seen Horford, he has played hard the whole game. When he took out T.J. Ford on that layup [after which Ford missed 24 games with neck and back injuries], he didn't do it maliciously, but he made a hard foul. Some of his histrionics you can do without, like when he pounds his chest and waves his arms too much after he makes a play early. But that's not bad for this team because they don't have a lot of guys with that intensity.

If you don't think Al Horford is great, you don't like basketball. If you're bothered by his histrionics you're probably older than me and I can make fun of you for that. Go to bed, old man!

For them ever to be a championship team -- not just a playoff team -- Horford needs to play the 4, and they find a 5 who can really play up front alongside him.

Okay. A list of 5's who can really play: Yao Ming, Dwight Howard, Tim Duncan (oh, right, he's officially a power forward), Marcus Camby, Chris Kaman, probably Greg Oden. That's it. I don't think any of those guys are realistically available for the Hawks to acquire.

You shift Josh Smith to small forward and bring Marvin Williams off the bench. But until they go in that direction, they'll be the best 6-foot-8 team in the league with too many forwards on the roster.

Forwards on the roster: Josh Smith, Marvin Williams, partial credit for Al Horford, Othello Hunter. Three of them a couple inches north of 6-foot-8 and one one of them a full inch (at least) shorter. This scout does know that Josh Childress left, right?

When Smith played well last year, it was mainly because he quit shooting threes.

Josh Smith attempted 99 threes last year.

He seemed to say, OK, I'm going to have a great mismatch at the 4, I'm going to just run the floor and let the game come to me.

I wish I had gotten to watch the Josh Smith this guy watched last year. It sounds like the exact opposite of the player that frustrated me so often.

He can be a dominant player who can change the game, and when he's focused he is very good and a tough matchup. But he also goes through games where he seems lost, and if he makes a couple of mistakes and coach Mike Woodson starts yelling at him, then he's gone. The whole key to whether they're a 35- or 45-win team depends on him being able to figure it out every night. We see him and his team get keyed up to play Detroit or Boston, but they don't get up against teams like Charlotte. Smith can have a big influence on his team by not settling for jumpers and instead becoming more of an attacker.

But he should be moved to small forward (giving up the above referenced "great mismatch at the 4") for a hypothetically available center who can really play.

Mike Bibby has issues: Can he stay injury-free, be consistent and also be committed to playing defense like Woodson wants him to play?

No. Maybe (which I guess is a "no" if you're asking about consistency). No.

As a defender, he plays the passing lanes. But Woodson wants his players to be solid defenders rather than steals defenders, and the coach knows it all starts with the point guard.

Really? Then why has the team planned to use Mike Bibby, Anthony Johnson, Tyronn Lue, and Acie Law IV at the point for the last two years? They were a far better defensive team before Bibby arrived but that didn't have much to do with quality point guard defense.

Bibby enjoys having the ball in his hands, yet sometimes I think he shoots the ball a little quickly. Bibby knows his contract is coming up [he's a free agent after the season], so he'll want to have a good year and get some points up.

It's phrased like a criticism, but I'm struggling to figure out the downside of Mike Bibby having a good year and getting some points up. Impure motives? I'll forgive him that in exchange for above-average offensive production.

Backup point guard is another issue. Acie Law didn't produce like they would want as a high draft pick last season. But there were games where he did enough. He beat his man shooting off the dribble, he was good in all kinds of pick-and-roll situations, he got into the paint and he had late-game ability. But Woodson is more of a half-court guy who likes to call every play, and that works against Law, who is a good but not great shooter from the three-point line.

Again, I don't see the complication here (and didn't last year, either). Mike Woodson (in my opinion, mistakenly) wants the Hawks to play half-court basketball. He wants to call plays. Acie Law, in a fairly comprehensively disappointing rookie season, showed some ability, despite inconsistent health and playing time, to run the pick-and-roll effectively. I know the Hawks have pick-and-roll sets in the half-court. I've seen them run them. Why is this not a significant part of the offense when Acie Law is on the court leading the second unit? In a couple of weeks, I fear we'll learn that the answer, this year, has a lot to do with Flip Murray dribbling.

Marvin Williams improved his jump shot last year and became more of a threat. He needs to use his size to post up small forwards more often and not just be a tall, big body on the perimeter.

Amen. However, this should be less of a priority for the team than getting the ball to Smith and Horford in the post more often..

Flip Murray is going to be an open-court guy who will put the ball on the floor, but if he has to be backup point or run plays, then he's not as good. There's a reason he's played for so many different teams.

That reason: missing almost 60% of the shots he takes. Flip Murray is not a good player full stop.

I don't think they get any value from Maurice Evans coming off the bench. He isn't a tough-minded kid, which is why he's bounced around. He was a starter for a winning team last year [in Orlando], but I wonder if he has the makeup to go from starter to backup.

Maurice Evans has started 69 of the 306 NBA games he has played and came off the bench 62 times for a 42-win Lakers team the year before last.

I wonder if they might be better bringing Williams off the bench where he can play both forward spots. Then they won't miss Josh Childress as much.

I'm going to need a much more detailed explanation of how starting the guy who isn't tough-minded and has bounced around so you can then bring the better player off the bench is going to keep the Hawks from missing Josh Childress as much. I am not going to get that explanation, am I?

The problem with losing Childress is that they have a lot of guys who need the ball. He didn't. He just played. He was a stable personality and he could be effective playing without the ball.

Nothing I can take issue with there but it's a rather indirect way of saying the problem with losing Childress is he was a better basketball player than almost everyone else on the team then and now.

I'm a Woodson fan. But he gets too frustrated at times, and it's too long a year with too many possessions in each game -- especially with all of his young players -- for him to be on them all the time. That can wear on a team. The main thing is that he has a great up-and-down team, but he's so conscious of them not turning the ball over and making sure the right guy gets the right shot that he calls plays like a half-court team. If they played looser, they might turn it over once or twice more, but their guys would stay more focused and be more involved at both ends of the court.

That's the best description of Mike Woodson's coaching style that I have ever read. I'm jealous I never formulated a description that precise in the (digital) reams of Mike Woodson criticism I've written.

But look at the other side of it: They're not a very good team yet he had them in most games last year and gave them chances to be successful.

I think the inability to let the players play the style of basketball to which they're best suited rather than the style of basketball that makes the coach most comfortable limited their chances to be successful (and that's the difference of opinion that explains why this scout says he's a Mike Woodson fan and I do not) but one should never forget that Mike Woodson has, for four years, coached teams constructed by Billy Knight.

He's a good defensive coach who tries to get the guys to respect the game, and when they don't, he gets frustrated. I'd really like to see him coaching a veteran team.

The Hawks were a good defensive team last year until they acquired the veteran Mike Bibby. I think the Hawks are a mediocre defensive team because they have mostly mediocre defensive players. Josh Smith's really the only clearly above-average defensive player on the team and, were we to follow this scout's lead and move Smith to the 3, that would disappear as Smith would get beat off the dribble constantly.

If you know GM Rick Sund and you look at Bibby's [$14.5 million] contract, I think you'll see a trade from them as the year goes on. I bet they try to trade for an impact player, probably to get either a point guard or center. I think they have to make a trade in order to get back to the playoffs.

I would hope Rick Sund, should he decide to trade Mike Bibby, would try to acquire an "impact player." However, the last time Mike Bibby was traded, he was worth Anthony Johnson, Tyronn Lue, Shelden Williams, Lorenzen Wright, and a 2nd-round pick. Somebody will have to value an expiring contract a whole hell of a lot to bridge the gap between the value of that collection of assets and an "impact player."