SB Nation - Keith Bogans

Gameday Preview Charlotte Bobcats at San Antonio Spurs

David Arnott — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 14:06:23 -0000

Pump Up Music: Sponge -- "Plowed"

The Big Picture: What happened to the San Antonio Spurs? If the season ended today, they'd be a half game out of the playoffs. Part of it is probably injury. Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker have both missed time already, and Manu, especially, just hasn't been himself, his field goal percentage falling through the floor. But even that doesn't explain the Spurs' shakiness, seeing as Tim Duncan is as steady as ever.

It's probably the defense. They don't have a perimeter stopper, and that has a cascade effect on everyone else. Sure, Richard Jefferson is far from embarrassing on D. Same goes for Roger Mason, Jr. and Keith Bogans. But the formula kind of breaks down without that perimeter defender. Yes, Duncan is still an anchor in the paint, but when the opponent's go-to guy -- usually a wing player that Duncan can't guard one on one -- doesn't have to deal with Bruce Bowen harassing him all night (in ways both legal and gray area), it magnifies the others' defensive weaknesses, and suddenly Matt Bonner's ability to stretch the D on the offensive end of the floor doesn't seem like such a great advantage when he has to help more on slashers. It's not too late to correct this. Someone like Rasual Butler might be a great acquisition for them down the line.

Key to Victory: Tyson Chandler has to stay in the game. If he can avoid foul trouble and make life difficult for Timmy, the Spurs will have a really difficult time scoring on the Bobcats' defense. Secondarily, here's hoping Boris Diaw can punish San Antonio for playing either Matt Bonner or DeJuan Blair (a.k.a. Thabeet Killer) with his inside-outside game.

Detail That May Interest .08% of You: Larry Brown lasted 3 1/2 years as Spurs coach in the late 80s and early 90s. He was replaced by Bob Bass, apparently on an interim basis, for the rest of the 1991-92 season. But then, to start the 1992-93 season, somehow Jerry Tarkanian(!) lasted only twenty games before getting canned.

Preview: Kings at Spurs

Ziller — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 20:00:23 -0000

by Darren Abate - AP

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THE OPPONENT

The Spurs are far better than .500, despite the record. I could try to explain what's gone wrong, but Timothy Varner of 48 Minutes of Hell can do it from a tighter perspective, much more eloquently.

[T]hrough 18 games, those horses have come up lame. Rather than getting a lift from the supporting cast, Tim Duncan is playing with MVP-efficiency and barely keeping the Spurs at a half-respectable .500. If the Spurs recover from their start of sputter and stall, Tim Duncan ought to be placed at the center of the MVP conversation. He’s threatening a career season, at least in terms of efficiency. And it’s all lost on a 9-9 start.

Don’t get me wrong. It’s not that no one else is playing well. Matt Bonner is a having a career year; DeJuan Blair is occasionally sensational. Tony Parker is not dominating, but playing competent basketball. I get all that, and I could further qualify. It’s just that the supporting cast taken as a whole is providing more drag than momentum-gathering boost. Tim Duncan is all dragster, and the team is mostly parachute.

Richard Jefferson has certainly been disappointing, and Manu Ginobili has seemingly been on-and-off, hot-and-cold. For the Kings' sake, given that our defense isn't bright and the Spurs' defense continues to be, let's hope Jefferson disappoints and Ginobili is more cold than warm.

			FG			3PT			FT			Rebounds			Misc
	G	M	M	A	Pct	M	A	Pct	M	A	Pct	Off	Def	Tot	Ast	TO	Stl	Blk	PF	PPG
Tim Duncan	16	32.3	7.6	13.8	55.0	0.0	0.2	0.0	4.0	5.2	77.1	3.1	7.7	10.8	3.4	2.0	0.5	2.1	1.9	19.1
Tony Parker	14	30.4	6.4	12.8	50.3	0.1	0.4	20.0	4.7	5.9	79.5	0.1	2.6	2.7	5.6	3.3	0.7	0.3	2.1	17.6
Richard Jefferson	18	33.2	4.4	10.1	43.4	0.9	2.8	33.3	3.1	4.6	68.3	0.7	3.6	4.3	2.7	1.6	0.8	0.3	2.1	12.8
Manu Ginobili	13	22.8	3.5	9.6	36.8	1.6	4.4	36.8	4.0	4.8	83.9	0.7	1.8	2.5	3.6	2.0	1.2	0.5	1.9	12.7
George Hill	18	25.3	3.7	9.0	40.7	0.9	2.3	38.1	2.4	3.1	78.6	0.6	1.4	2.0	2.1	0.9	1.0	0.4	3.4	10.7
Matt Bonner	18	21.5	3.3	6.7	49.2	2.0	4.4	45.6	0.7	0.9	81.3	1.6	3.7	5.2	1.4	0.7	0.2	0.2	2.3	9.3
DeJuan Blair	18	14.9	2.8	4.7	60.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.6	1.2	45.5	1.9	3.6	5.4	0.7	1.1	0.2	0.7	2.5	6.2
Antonio McDyess	17	20.9	2.5	5.2	47.7	0.0	0.1	0.0	1.1	1.5	69.2	1.8	3.8	5.6	0.6	0.8	0.6	0.4	2.6	6.0
Roger Mason Jr.	17	18.4	2.3	6.0	38.2	0.9	3.1	30.8	0.4	0.5	77.8	0.1	1.6	1.6	2.2	1.1	0.3	0.2	1.5	5.9
Michael Finley	17	18.2	2.1	4.6	44.3	0.7	1.7	41.4	0.4	0.5	66.7	0.2	1.5	1.7	0.9	0.6	0.3	0.2	0.5	5.2
Keith Bogans	17	17.5	1.4	3.5	40.0	0.5	2.1	25.0	0.6	0.8	76.9	0.2	2.4	2.5	0.8	0.7	0.6	0.1	1.9	3.9
Marcus Haislip	1	3.0	1.0	1.0	100.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.0	2.0
Theo Ratliff	9	8.8	0.7	1.4	46.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.4	50.0	0.6	1.2	1.8	0.3	0.7	0.0	1.2	1.4	1.6
Malik Hairston	9	3.8	0.3	0.6	60.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.4	0.4	0.2	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.3	0.7

THE KEY BATTLE

Tony Parker vs. Tyreke Evans. Reke struggled to defend the pick-and-roll against the Spurs last time around, with Parker slicing to the rim at will. Now granted, Parker does this against most teams. But if the Kings want to compete, Parker can't own the driving lines. He's going to have to work.

On the other end, it's a two-fold challenge in attacking San Antonio's defense: win the favorable size mismatches (particularly Evans-Parker) and overachieve in the problem spots (Andres Nocioni against the tough-inside, anti-three team defense, Jason Thompson vs Tim Duncan). Evans is the biggest key here, both in terms of punishing Parker without getting denied by Duncan and friends, and in terms of setting up Thompson, Spencer Hawes and others with easy attempts.

INTERESTING SIDESHOW

Let's play Inane Arguments, hosted by Grant Napear! His tirades against

a) Paul Westphal for protesting the shot clock violation when the Kings inbounded with 1 second on the clock, and

b) Jason Thompson for protesting his fifth foul, which came when he pulled Darius Songaila's jersey on defense

were inane. Everyone, including Westphal, who, you know, has been around the league a while, knows that there could be less than a second left. Westphal was indicating he thought the New Orleans scorekeeper jobbed the Kings by starting the shot clock just a touch before the ball was touched. This is a pretty classic home court advantage type move. If you read Westphal's lips, he says "Nice timekeeper!" or something like that. He is indicating that he believes the shot clock was started early. Not that the Kings deserve a full second because the clock read 1. You idiot.

Regarding Thompson, Napear kept on about how obvious a foul it was, and how Thompson should have shut up about it and play smarter defense. Of course, Thompson was protesting the fact that he was assaulted repeatedly at the other end, with nary a whistle to help him out. You can see him motion to the refs that he had been beaten about the head by the Hornets defense, and how he deserved to get some calls if the refs insisted on calling Nancy garbarge like the jersey yank. Thompson wasn't saying, "I didn't pull his jersey!" He was saying, "They are beating me about the head and whatnot, how bout a whistle, chum?"

And missing those things isn't terrible. It's the attitude that he, Grant, is the smartest person in the world that grates.

BOLD PROCLAMATION

Matt Bonner takes more three-pointers than Spencer Hawes.

NUMERIC PREDICTION

Spurs by ... never mind. I am not a jinx.

DETAILS

The tip-off, again, is at 5 o'clock. Game thread then, with the second game thread at 6 and the post-game thread at 7:45. Recap someday.

Spurs vs Sixers: Stats of the Game

BlaseE — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 01:00:29 -0000

There was something very weird about this game. I think ATS was pretty close about the game feeling in control even when it got close. I was excited for the big plays, but I wasn't super excited for the gritty stuff like usual. I think I've come up with a few culprits:

* A Sunday game

* During football season

* Against the Sixers (AI2, Dalembert, and who? I've heard of Holiday but, yeah...sorry Ivey, but I didn't even know you were on the roster until I looked at the boxscore. Shame on me.)

* Where the main event is actually post game.

Another list after the jump....

I don't listen to much Green Day anymore, but this is a great one for me.

STATS OF THE GAME

* We "live and die" by the 3 so anytime we shoot over 50% behind the arc is worth noting, 55.6% to be exact. So without Mason; Bonner, Finley, Manu, and RJ combine for 9 of 13 for 69.2%. Where were the other 5 attempts? K-Boges was 1 of 5....In his defense, I think most of them were fair attempts. You can't make them all.

* The Spurs have been doing a good job of making opposing leaders into being poor leaders. Jennings looked not so great against us. The Wizards, a veteran team, looked completely leaderless. Ariza chucked away to get his points. Iguodala 21 points and is an awesome athlete, but please don't tell him that. He was 1 of 6 from 3. If I was the Sixers coach, the first thing I would do is sit him down and say, "you are an average 3 point shooter at best, but you can rock the paint and get to line at will so if you don't drive the ball, I will bench you!" Once again, an opponents best player finishes the game with the worst +/- on the team. AI Jr. was -15.

* Dejuan Blair had a disgusting line (11 points, 10 rebounds, and 3 blocks).....in 16 minutes of play! A note from watching the Spurs this season: Manu likes passing to Blair more than anyone else. Watch for it. Manu forced at least 3 crazy passes in this game alone at Blair. The first I remember was a turnover because Blair wasn't ready. The second was a turnover because Manu's pass went too crazy for any human or Beast. The third was an easy score. I'm not sure if Manu and him just have a a connection, Manu wants to see Blair dominate the opponent, or Manu trusts Blair's wingspan and low body center to the person guarding him to prevail, but watch when they are on the court together. As the season goes along, expect Manu to Blair, points for Blair, assist for Manu to be a very common and efficient sight.

* Duncan and Parker were monsters of efficiency. For the sake of this being a triumvirate of power, I'll include Manu who wasn't half bad either in his limited role and coming off an injury. So your Cerberus of All the is Holy has a combined stat line of 84 minutes, 46 points on 17 of 30 shooting and 11 of 11 from the line, 15 assists, 9 rebounds (in spite of Blair's night and then Bonner, Finley, and Bogans combining for another 16 rebounds), 2 steals, and 5 blocks. What turnovers? I don't see that column.....

Finally, here is the man of the night!!! Thank God every Spursday or those ones in between that we can claim this guy to our franchise so I leave you with this last stat of the night: +1 Spurs with their retired jersey saying "Hall of Fame".

Mavericks Vs Spurs: Game 12 Preview

Phillip Baggett — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 16:12:31 -0000

Spurs vs Mavericks preview Spurs vs Mavericks coverage Pounding The Rock

The Match-ups:

Point Guard

Jason Kidd: Kidd called the recent road trip "a character test" and claimed that the Mavericks "Passed". Well tonight begins the next test for Kidd and the Mavs. The last time in San Antonio Kidd was given the luxury of not having to defend Parker, but Parker is healthy again and Kidd better be ready.

vs.

Tony Parker: Tony made his return to the Spurs line up against Oklahoma City this past Saturday night, after being out with a sprained ankle. Parker looked good in his return with 17 points, 5 rebounds, and 5 assists. Since then the Spurs have been sitting waiting on tonight's match up.

Edge: Spurs (a fresh Parker against Kidd after a long road trip, this is not how I wanted the home stand to start)

Shooting Guard

Rodrigue Beaubois: Roddy B had a stellar road trip, and continues to open eyes around the NBA. Roddy could have really helped the Mavs in there last meeting against the Spurs, but someone decided not to play him, uh hmm...

vs.

Keith Bogans: The last time Bogans faced the Mavs he saw a lot of JJ Barea, and Bogans had a field day on both ends of the court. He only played 17 minutes in OKC but would be prepared to see quite a bit of him tonight.

Edge: Mavericks

Forward

Shawn Marion: Shawn is listed as day to day after suffering a sprained ankle in the first quarter of the game in Milwaukee on Monday night. I think he will play but I am not sure how effective he will be. We will likely see quite a bit of Kris Humphries and the Q

vs.

Richard Jefferson: Richard alone beat the Mavericks in the last meeting, but Jefferson was non existent in OKC on Saturday night. Apparently the Spurs and Jefferson are having a hard time getting on the same page when he is in the line up with Duncan and Parker. Jefferson played 35 minutes scoring 4 points, 4 rebounds, 4 assists. The Spurs will more than likely try to get Jefferson going quickly against an ailing Shawn Marion.

Edge: Spurs

Power Forward

Dirk Nowitzki: He's just "Dirktastic"

vs.

Tim Duncan: Duncan is stil
l a walking double double but his game has diminished, then factor in the soreness he is still feeling from the bad ankle and you got the makings of a big night from Dirk.

Edge: Mavericks

Center

Drew Gooden: I never saw this coming, but Gooden has played really well as of late and he will be needed tonight. In his last game against the Bucks Drew went off for 22 points and 14 rebounds. Another performance tonight any where near his last would go a long way in bringing a victory to the home team.

vs.

DeJuan Blair: Who knows how long he can hold up physically, but so far he has been excellent for the Spurs. The Spurs continue to limit his minutes to around 18 but he makes the most of his minutes (7 ppg, 7 rpg) I would highly suggest for Gooden to wear a little extra padding tonight.

Edge: Even

Injuries/Suspensions

San Antonio:

OUT - None

Dallas Mavericks

OUT - Josh Howard

Prediction: This should be another great Spurs, Mavs match up. So sit back and enjoy it. Mavericks win a nail biter. Go Mavs!

Mavericks: 94

Spurs: 91

Replacing Estimates of Magic 08-09 Stats With Real Ones

jonnichols — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 13:15:09 -0000

Some of the best stats out there, ones that most fans familiar with advanced stats know about, are actually based on estimates using box score data. For example, when we calculate Marcin Gortat's Offensive Rebound Rate, we're trying to determine what percentage of available offensive rebounds he collected while he was on the court. However, we don't really know how many rebounds were available. We have to estimate based on how things usually go for the Magic and their opponents, and assign a portion of that to Gortat.

Using box score data, that's the best we can do. But we also have play-by-play data, and we don't have to estimate. We (actually, a programming script) can go through the hundreds of thousands of recorded plays from the NBA 08-09 season, and find how many of those resulted in offensive rebound opportunities for Gortat. From there we just total how many offensive boards he had, and divide that by the number of available ones.

This method removes some of the guessing game, and the results of this method on various stats for the Magic will be discussed today. For a full explanation of how everything works, I will refer you to the article I wrote over at Basketball-Statistics.com last Thursday, which is here. Let's start by comparing the estimated rebound rates to the actual ones, as calculated from the play-by-play data, after the jump...

We can see that the estimates are pretty darn close. Amazingly, though, Dwight Howard is an even better rebounder than we thought (by 0.3%). Gortat's offensive rebounding may have been slightly overestimated, but his defensive rebounding was underestimated. The biggest differences were for Keith Bogans and Rafer Alston, who were actually not rebounding as well as we thought.

Now let's move on to some stuff for the little guys. Here are the comparisons for assists and steals:

Jameer Nelson's Assist Rate may have been inflated, while Anthony Johnson didn't receive enough credit. When we use the play-by-play data instead of the estimates, the difference between the two shrinks from 10.9% to 7%. My play-by-play steal rates are slightly lower for every player, and that may have something to do with differences in the way I calculated possessions.

Finally, let's look at blocks and usage rate:

Again, we see that each player's PBP data is less than his estimated data. This is not a Magic-only thing. The reason for this difference is again due to different calculations. Block percentage is normally calculated as the percentage of opponents' two-point attempts that were blocked by the player in question. My calculations counted three-point attempts as well. I feel that this way is more appropriate because, even though it's rare, three-pointers do get blocked. With usage rates, we again see that the estimates were actually pretty close to the real thing.

Because the differences between the estimates and the play-by-play data are usually small, this information may seem trivial. In many ways, it is. However, it's nice to get that warm fuzzy feeling when you know the numbers you're looking at are thoroughly calculated instead of just estimations.

What, does nobody else get that feeling?

Game 9 Preview: Oklahoma City at San Antonio

Zorgon — Sat, 14 Nov 2009 22:33:05 -0000

by Eric Gay - AP

Get away from our basket!

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This also counts as an open thread, so feel free to post your thoughts during the game here.

Time: 7:30 PM Central Standard Time

Place: The American Telephone & Telegraph Center, San Antonio, Texas

TV: Fox Sports Net Oklahoma, KMYS My Network TV 35

Radio: WWLS The Sports Animal (98.1)

Enemy Blog(s): Pounding the Rock, 48 Minutes of Hell, Project Spurs

Backstory: The Spurs are like the old, forgotten team. They won a championship not so long ago and they continually make moves to stay competitive, but injuries just keep getting in the way of true success. This year, that description has held true to what the Spurs are. They made some off-season buzz by obtaining Richard Jefferson to fill a hole at Small Forward, but not near the amount of news the Magic made by grabbing Vince Carter, the Cavaliers made by grabbing Shaq, or the Lakers made by grabbing Ron Artest. And this season has started out with injury after injury, firstly to Tony Parker and secondly to Tim Duncan. One of them is probably going to play tonight, but we are unsure of who. Thus, I am very unsure of whom is going to win this game.

Meanwhile, the Thunder have been the epitome of average. At times, they look like they're on top of the world, able to compete with teams like the Lakers and blow out the short handed Magic, but at other times, they look pretty bad, barely beating the Clippers and playing extremely ugly games against the Trail Blazers and Kings. One never knows what we'll do against a slow, monotonous team like the Spurs, but considering we split the series last year, we have a fair shot at beating them.

Below: Matchups, Prediction

Matchups: (Please Note that the Spurs lineup wavers from game to game, so I'll just follow the lineup Pounding the Rock says that the Spurs will have.)

Center: Nenad Krstic vs. Matt Bonner

Wow, a matchup of two outside shooting Centers! To be honest, I haven't seen much of Matt Bonner, but I'm pretty sure he's not much of an inside guy. I'd say that Bonner has the advantage outside, whereas Krstic has the advantage inside.

Power Forward: Jeff Green vs. Tim Duncan (Possibly Jefferson or Blair)

Well, this is a mismatch if I've ever seen one. To be honest, if Green can get his outside shot going, this could turn very nasty. And, if Green doesn't get his outside shot going, this could also be very nasty. I could see either side dominating the matchup, but in the end, I think it will be a wash, with Green having less rebounds than usual. If Jefferson starts, I see him winning the matchup, as he's a more versatile scorer than Green.

Small Forward: Kevin Durant vs. Richard Jefferson (Possibly Michael Finley)

Durant wins this matchup either way, but if old man Finley gets the start here, I could see a Durant bonanza starting to form. If the Spurs are smart, he won't start here. Either way, I don't see Durants defense getting in the way of Jefferson or Finley, so I think they'll have good games as well.

Shooting Guard: Thabo Sefolosha vs. Keith Bogans (Possibly Michael Finley)

That's right, Manu Ginobili isn't starting. He'll often be the top performer for the Spurs, but he does it off the bench for some reason. Well, whatever floats the Spurs' boat is fine with me. I think that Sefolosha will win the matchup, just because of his recent performance in the intangible categories, something which really isn't seen in the Box Scores of Bogans. If Finley plays, I think Sefolosha can do a fair job of keeping him down. In his day, he was one of the NBAs best scorers, but these days, he's just alright.

Point Guard: Russell Westbrook vs. George Hill (Possibly Tony Parker)

George Hill is a really nice scoring point guard to have, but he's not nearly the distributor Tony Parker is. With the way Westbrook has been playing, he's about equal to George Hill, but if Tony Parker plays, he'll find himself out of his league.

Battle of the Benches:

Well, by having Manu Ginobili on their bench, the Spurs get an automatic win here. Oh yeah, can they've got Antonio McDyess, Dejuan Blair, Roger Mason Jr., and Theo Ratliff as well. Talk about us getting outclassed.

Coaching and Intangibles:

Gregg Popovich is an excellent coach from way back, the Spurs are at home, and they've won their last two games without Duncan or Parker. I think even the dullest bowls of soup can determine who has the advantage here.

Bottom Line:

The odds are stacked against the Thunder, and if either Duncan or Parker play, we'll be up against even greater odds. But if the Thunder can focus on ball movement, Kevin Durant can luck into good matchups, and, if Duncan or Parker play, the Thunder can neutralize their threat, then we'll have a chance. But, in the Spurs house....I think we're going to fall back below .500.

Prediction: Spurs 85, Thunder 73

How do you think the game will go? Vote in the Poll!

And, again, feel free to drop any comments you might have during, before, or after the game below. I might be here during the game to drop my thoughts as well. Go Thunder!

Poll

Who's going to win tonight?

The Oklahoma City Thunder

25 votes

The San Antonio Spurs

15 votes

40 votes | Poll has closed

San Antonio Spurs 2010 Season Preview

Wayne Vore (ATS) — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 17:00:34 -0000

The Spurs 2010 season FINALLY starts on Wednesday. I say finally because I have been stoked ever since the trade for Jefferson on June 23rd. I sat and watched us snag DeJuan Blair in the draft. I read about us signing Antonio McDyess. I sat, in an uncomfortable chair I might add, and watched game after game of the Summer League in July as George Hill and Malik Hairston showed how much better they were. Then two months of boring old summer where we signed Marcus Haislip and Theo Ratliff. Lastly, a month of preseason games I couldn't watch. Yet, we made it. All of us together.

The season starts NOW. Holy FSM am I ready for it.

As a Spurs fan, I think we deal with two issues when starting a new season. One, the Spurs organization doesn't seem excited. Do you recall an interview with Pop saying something like "Man, this is going to be a great year! I can't believe the talent on this team. Easily the most talented team we've ever had." No. Me neither.

Two, they will play the regular season without excitement. Not too high. Not too low. How many times over the next 2-3 months do you think we will hear a player or coach say, "We're just trying to get better day-to-day. Each day is a step to the end of the season. We are trying to build on what we learn everyday." 500? At least. You won't hear Tim say, "Man, this team is stacked. We're playing great defense right now and it will only get better. I just can't see how anybody is going to beat us come May." Just business as usual.

News Alert - This Team Is Stacked

Well, I'm here to tell you this team is stacked. Top to bottom, this is a stout team with a great mix of attributes. We have everything we've had in the past and a couple things we have been missing. We have scorers, we have rebounders, we have playmakers, we have 3-point shooters, we have balance, we have depth, we have youth, we have athleticism, we have experience, we have length, and we have Tim.

Me, I have unbounded enthusiasm. I am stoked to the gills. Let me tell you some of the reasons why.

Three

Let's start at the top. We still have the Big 3. You win in the NBA with great players and we have three great players. We have three great players who have been in our system. We have three great players who have won before and still know what it takes to win. We have three great players who are still great. Tim might not be the best he's ever been, but he's not far from it. Manu probably isn't the best he's ever been, but he's not far from it. Tony is still getting better. We have three awesome players who contribute at both ends of the floor.

Four?

Do we have a fourth great? Very possibly. Richard "Rage" Jefferson will fit in wonderfully with this team. He can play off the ball and get shots off the play of others, and he can create shots for himself. He can sit in the corner and bury the open 3, or he can post up his man. He can also take his man off the dribble. He will spend most of his energy on the defensive end bullying the other team's best wing. He'll be a great if he is really good being a bully.

The Quiet Giant

Antonio McDyess is a quiet man and his play will be quiet. His ability to grab tough defensive rebounds, play physical defense, and hit open jumpers will be a huge part of the team's success. I think Antonio is the best big man to play next to Tim since David Robinson retired. He just has a great all-around game that will complement Tim's game wonderfully.

Bomb Brigade

We return three great 3-point shooters, all of whom should flourish with slightly reduced roles. Roger Mason, Michael Finley, and Matt Bonner shot 42.1%, 41.1%, and 44.0% respectively from long range last year. These are fantastic numbers that we want to see replicated. What we don't want to see replicated are 30.4, 28.8, and 23.8. Those were their minutes per game. Due to injuries and a lack of depth in the front court, all three played more minutes than I think is good for the team. I think we had to lean too hard on them. But, they are all back and they should all still be able to shoot.

Cubits, Baby, Cubits

You know I got on the George Hill bandwagon very early during the '08 Summer League debacle. I bought my George Hill jersey just about the time Pop sent him to the bench and declared him not ready for the playoffs. My faith wavered not. I started to really feel good about my decisions at '09 Summer League when George started showing his leadership skills. Now, after a very impressive preseason and effusive praise from Pop, I believe I know what my Halloween costume will be Saturday. Anybody know where I can find some long arms?

Oldies But Newies

The Spurs brought in a couple vets as situational players. Again, these guys are great complements to the team. Theo Ratliff and Keith Bogans were both brought in to play defense. Defense, defense, defense. I don't expect either to play more than about 8 minutes per game, but they should be very effective minutes. Will they score much? No. But if they can harass shooters, bang in the paint, and grab a couple rebounds . . . mission accomplished.

Beast, Man-Child, Freak of Nature

Yep, DeJuan Blair. He of the preseason double-double. He's the great wild card in the season. The greatest point of excitement. The unlimited upside. He can take over a game without ever running a play for him. Will he? On some nights, yes. Other nights, no. Anything he gives us will be a bonus. And I expect him to give us a lot.

Some Things I Will Keep An Eye On

Our defense in the last 3 minutes of games. Who's playing and how effective are we? You know, I know, and my dog knows that Pop will play with lineups during a game. He will play with different defenses. He will see what works. He will see what doesn't work. But, in the last 3 minutes, when it is winning time, he will go with his best. Pop, above all other things, will want to find out who his best defenders are and whether or not they can execute in the crunch. I expect we'll see a lot of Tony, Manu, Rage, Tim, and Antonio at the end of games. Look for George to be a situational substitution for Tony and Manu. Besides who is playing, how they play will be important. Will we play suffocating defense down the stretch of a game? This is the most important question in our season.

Manu's explosiveness. Manu has been the Spurs 4th-quarter master. He's the guy that has found a way to make plays. The 4th quarter is also when he has really looked to be aggressive scoring his own points. He needs his explosiveness to do it. When will he get it back and how much of it will he have? If Manu is able to recapture his 2008 physical form, well, I fear for the league. His explosiveness makes everybody that plays with him much, much better.

The second unit. I completely agree with Stampler. Our bench is the deepest in the league and, unlike the last two years, our second unit will build leads. In fact, as Stampler said, they will blow people out. Last year, everybody after the big 3 was a role player. Somebody that fit in with a particular skill. This year, we have guys that can make plays. Theo can block shots. DeJuan can get offensive rebounds. George can play tenacious defense. Rage can score his own points. This second unit has guys that can run over a team. Oh, and Manu will be leading that nasty second unit. Keep an eye on the second unit. Their ability to open up leads will be a huge benefit. However, their ability to close leads will be even better. How many times last year did it feel like our goose was cooked early in the second quarter? Tim and Tony had started -- Manu was injured -- the other team came out strong and got us down 8 early, then Tim and Tony went to the bench. We were trying to fight our way back into games with Fab, KT, Mason, Ime, and Jacque. This year, it will be George, Manu, FinDog, Blair, and Ratliff (we could also substitute Rage in for FinDog since I think we will rarely see 3 of the Big 4 on the bench). I don't know about you, but that lineup looks pretty damn good. I think it could win some games.

Player Expectations

Tim Duncan. King of the Spurs universe. In some ways, I expect this to be a down year for Tim statistically for anybody keeping an eye from a distance. I expect his points will be lower and you know that is 90% of what people pay attention to. I think his shot attempts and free throw attempts will be down. I think this will largely be because his minutes will be down AND that the team will run very little offense through him. HOWEVER, I think Tim is going to step up as a great garbage man. Expect his offensive rebound numbers to be up. Expect his rebounds per minute to be up. Expect his field goal percentage to go up. I think we will see relatively little of a very efficient Tim Duncan. Yeah, I'm worried about his knee and his mobility. But, we'll never know how he's doing. He'll play. He'll run the court. He won't complain.

Tony Parker. Offensive leader of the team. Tony just gets better every year on the offensive end. His one man fast break is one of the most amazing things in the NBA. The other team's need to game plan for him most likely represents itself in the fact that a relatively poor Spurs rebounding team last year was first in the league in defensive rebounding. Teams have to get back. Look for Tony to maintain his scoring average at 20-21 points per game, but look for his assists to get up in the 8+ range. Tony has better offensive players with him this year, and that will result in more passes to open players who can score.

Manu Ginobili. Leader of the second unit. Manu will be the pseudo-point guard of the second unit. George may bring the ball up the court, but Manu will initiate the plays. Again agreeing with Stampler, look for Manu to have great assist numbers playing with guys who can score on the second unit. Keep an eye on his 3-point shooting. If he gets his average up near 40%, he's going to be a nasty cover for teams.

Richard Jefferson. Defensive stopper. Rage's ability to be the primary wing defender will be critical to the team's overall defensive ability. If he can make the great scorers in the league work hard, then the Spurs will be in great shape. I know he'll fit in offensively. He'll sit in the corner and hit the open 3 when the other guys are doing their thing. He'll spend some time in the post when matchups call for it. And, he will be dangerous in the open floor with Tony and Manu.

Antonio McDyess. Veteran. I expect boring and solid. I expect many games where he doesn't do much but play 16 minutes and grab 4 rebounds. Those won't bother me. It's how he plays against the elite teams in the league that I want to see. Will he give us 10 and 10 against the Lakers? Can he lock up Gasol? Can he harass Dirk? Will he pull Shaq away from the basket? That's what we need from him. Don't judge him by a game against the Kings. Judge him by his ability to make solid plays in big games.

Michael Finley, Matt Bonner, Roger Mason. Shooters. These guys are here to shoot. Period. They will earn court time based on their ability to knock down 3 balls. As I said earlier, these guys can all shoot and I expect all of them to have fewer minutes. If any of them find that they don't have a good stroke this year, expect that person to see extended pine time. Don't get me wrong, they all know the system and be where they need to be. But they have to make shots.

George Hill. Backup point guard. The development of George Hill will be great to watch this season. I think we will see him playing 22 minutes per game. 14-16 as Tony's backup and 6-8 at shooting guard. Two things really impressed me in the game against the Thunder. One, he not only knocked down his corner threes, but he shot them aggressively and with confidence. Two, he attacked the rim and made a Tony-style layup where he extended his arm and flipped it up before the help defender could get over. Last year, he would try to get all the way to the rim and flip the ball up wildly off the side of the rim. He made layups harder than they needed to be. It looks like in one year, his offensive game has developed tremendously. But he's still a better defender. He's in the Bruce Bowen mold. He loves to defend. I think George is going to have a tremendous year. I think he'll end the year as one of the 20 best point guards in the league. I don't even think it will be debatable. Maybe, just this once, Pop isn't snowing us and George really is his favorite player.

DeJuan Blair. Wild card. If he gives us nothing, I think we have a great team. However, he's very capable of giving us 20 and 10 on any night. The best thing about Blair, and what separates him from any other Spur in the last 10 years, is that he can do it without ever having a play run for him. He can do it all without taking anything away from the team. DeJuan has something you don't see in very many hustle rebounders. Great touch. He has fantastic touch around the basket which gives him the ability to score. And score a bunch. DeJuan is a natural scorer. He knows how to use his body. He knows how to use the rim to protect against shot blockers. He has great footwork as well. His ability to put the ball in the bucket is what makes him special. He's not just a rebounder, which he will do plenty of, he's a scorer. And he scores off his rebounds. He's all upside. When you get a chance to watch him, watch his feet and watch how he scores. He's Ginobili-esque in his ability to get shots up in traffic and have them go in. I'm telling you. He's special.

Everybody else. Theo Ratliff, Keith Bogans, Marcus Haislip, Ian Mahinmi, and Malik Hairston. This team is so deep I'm afraid I forgot somebody. I think all these guys can help the team. I don't think any of them are 20 minutes per game guys. The contributions of these guys, along with the development of George and DeJuan, is what will keep our big guns fresh. Their ability to play well is what will get us a one or two seed in the West and home court advantage. They are important, but I think there will be small roles for each of them.

Defense

Back to basics. The team needs to get back to being a tenacious group. Our defense slipped a lot last year. Teams shot really well against us and we didn't cause turnovers and we didn't block shots. We need to get back to making teams uncomfortable. I think we have the personnel to do it. Defense is what the team will work hardest on all year. That's why Jefferson is so important. Look for us to be better in all three areas. Our defensive field goal percentage will be lower, we'll have more steals, and we'll block more shots. In general, I think teams will find us to be much more rugged.

Offense

Easy baskets. Our scoring out of our half court sets will be the same as always with a little less Tim. Tony and Manu will run the pick-and-roll. They'll drive. They'll kick out to 3-point shooters. Wash, rinse, repeat. However, I think we will be on the break more. For three reasons. One, we have more athletic personnel that will flourish in the open court with Tony's speed spearheading the attack. Two, our defense will create some havoc. Turnovers and blocked shots, and even stops, lead to more running opportunities. We wont' be the Suns, but we will get up and down the court some. Three, we will be a better offensive rebounding team. We really can't be worse, but I'd like to see us get to the middle of the pack.

My Outlook

I really think this will be the best team of the Spurs championship era. Pop won't push the older guys during the regular season like he used to. So I don't know if we will win 65 games. We very well might though if our second unit is as good as I think they will be. My schedule analysis said we win 56 games. I think that is worst case. I think we'll win 62-63 games. Best case, this team can win 66-67. Seriously, this is a very good team. This team is significantly better than last year. They are significantly better than every team in the West except the Lakers. This team is significantly better than every team in the East except the Celtics, Cavs, and Magic. This team should blow people out this year. I expect our point differential to be near 10 points per game this year through the end of January. We will be a juggernaut.

If you aren't excited about this season, you might not be a Spurs fan. If you are a Spurs fan, you should be excited about this season. Get ready. Get tickets. Watch games. This is going to be an amazing year. I'm just glad it's getting started. You should be too.

A PtR Moment: Manu's drive & assist to Blair vs OKC

jollyrogerwilco — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 08:35:36 -0000

This is the first of a series I hope to continue throughout the season. I love beautifully executed basketball. It's well thought-out, fun to watch unfold, and often results in an easy bucket. Whenever I see a play like this, I love to watch it over and over. Soaking in the subtleties. Noticing the smallest details and how they each contribute to making the play what it is -- a gorgeous display of mental acuity and physical skill blended together with preparation, teamwork and a heavy dose of Spurs awesomeness. The result often takes no longer than 5 seconds to see, but far longer to dissect and fully appreciate.

So, follow me to the other side of the jump, into a world where time may move slowly, but the hand is still quicker than the eye.

If you want to watch it in another browser, you can also see this play here. Just scroll down to the first embedded video. It begins at 1:09. Try not to be so distracted by the genius at work that you forget to meet me back here after you've viewed it a few dozen times.

The Setting

At this point in the game, the Spurs are up 13 with 3:17 left in the 3rd. There are 17 seconds on the shot clock and Manu Ginobili is running point, having just brought the ball over the half court line with his defender, Sefolosha, shading him to his left. This is what the entire league has taken to doing in an attempt to keep Manu from quickly gliding to his left and driving past them. Of course, when you try to take one thing away from someone as talented as Manu, other things open up.

The Play Begins

Manu is dribbling with his right hand as he moves forward to bring to meet Antonio McDyess at the top of the 3pt line in order to initiate a pick and roll. Nenad Krstic has both of his arms around McDyess as though he's attempting a Heimlich on Antonio, who pushes his hands away as Krstic works toward Manu's right to get to the spot first and keep the pick and roll from happening.

Manu sees this and instead of continuing toward McDyess, he takes four very short, quick steps to his right, almost directly toward the sideline. Krstic sees this and jumps to his left, away from McDyess, to stop Manu from driving around him. As Nenad is in the process of jumping left, Manu changes direction back to his own left, and begins his drive to go between McDyess and Krstic via the space created by his fake and Krstic's reaction.

Splitting the D

As he starts to go between Antonio and Nenad while beginning a crossover from his right hand to his left, Krstic takes a huge swipe at the ball. Although he only succeeds in clobbering Manu's arm, this causes Manu to lose the ball momentairily and it bounces off (probably) his left foot. It's hard to see exactly what happens because of the angle of the video. Manu darts forward to retreive the ball, and does so at the elbow to the right of the basket where he's approached by three white shirts.

The D reacts

To Manu's right is Kevin Durant, who has left Keith Bogans at the 3pt line (Bowen's old spot) and has come all the way down to the right of the paint; in the middle is Jeff Green who has left Blair and is standing just in front of the charge semi-circle; and Westbrook is to the right of the lane. He has just left George Hill and is on his way to ... I honestly couldn't tell you where he's headed. I watched him repeatedly and it's still a mystery to me what he's doing besides leaving his man open while gesturing in frustration and/or cluelessness after watching the play unfold.

The Moment

So Manu dribbles into the lane with his left, now with the ball again under his control, and while he's had to slow down to do so, he's still fast approaching Green. At this point, Manu leans back, comes to a complete stop directly in front of a frozen Green, and stands almost straight up as he executes a smooth, lefty, no-look, one-handed bounce pass to DeJuan Blair, who's standing to the left of the lane. Manu's pass leads Blair into the paint and DeJuan's first step (with his left) to meet it brings him into the lane as he receives the pass.

The Score

DeJuan brings his right foot underneath him, and as he gathers himself to jump (with an unusually wide base) Green and Durant have reacted to the pass. Both turn toward DeJuan as they move to defend. Green even gets his right hand up as he jumps to contest the shot. But Blair is too quick. From a position directly even with the bucket, he leaps out diagonially away from the baseline and toward the hoop, turning slowly in his jump and using both hands to dunk right at the front of the rim, traveling past and inside Green, who moves harmlessly by. Blair finishes his dunk with his right let parallel to the court and pulling himself up toward the rim before letting go and dropping straight down. Two points: Spurs.

Drawing Conclusions

So, you may ask, "What, if anything, do we learn from this excercise?" Well, to begin with, we don't have to learn anything. A sunset is beautiful and inspiring even if nothing in particular is gathered by the intellect from watching as rotation of the earth spins the sun out of sight, and the colors of the clouds and the sky change moment by moment. But still, I find that there's a thing or two to take away from analyzing this play.

First, Manu's still quite slippery with the ball in his hands. Those in attendence have said that he doesn't seem to have his full burst back yet. But he's still quick enough to use his guile to beat all five defenders in a single play. He loses his man, drives past Krstic with a fake, and draws the other three defenders off their men before dropping a dime on his teammate closest to the basket. This is impressive even if he uses a pick to do it. Both Hill and Bogans are wide open too, and aside from Westbrook (seriously, someone tell me what he's doing) every one of the Thunder players is running at him when he makes his slick pass to Blair.

Second, Blair is quick off his feet. He doesn't have Dwight Howard's fatal flaw (that showed up so often in last season's Finals) of bringing the ball down and/or dribbling once before making his move to the bucket. The 20-year-old was in position out of the lane (no 3 second violation possible) and moved to snag the pass and get up to throw it down in a flash. Of course it helped that his man had left him, but how many times in the past have we seen Manu or Tony drop a sweet pass into someone on the block who only managed a weak lay-up attempt because of fear of being blocked by a defender coming back to them? Blair was ready for the pass and flushed it as soon as he had it. Can finish at the rim: just one more box checked for the rookie.

And that's all I have in this, the first installment of A PtR Moment, where I choose a play, describe it to death and wring every last bit of enjoyment out of it -- unless you're like me and find that in tearing something apart, you know it better and appreciate it all the more.

Bucks Season Preview

Frank Madden — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 17:24:34 -0000

More photos » by Mike Roemer - AP

Could happier times finally be on the horizon?

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Below you'll find our contribution to the annual season previews that the good folks at Celtics Blog have been hosting for the last couple years.

Last Year's Record: 34-48

Key Losses: Ramon Sessions, Richard Jefferson, Charlie Villanueva

Not-So-Key Losses: Keith Bogans, Malik Allen, Damon Jones

Key Additions: Brandon Jennings, Hakim Warrick, Ersan Ilyasova, Carlos Delfino, Kurt Thomas, Jodie Meeks

Not-So-Key Additions: Roko Ukic

Actual analysis and deep thoughts after the jump.

1. What Significant Moves were made during the off-season?

Where to begin?

The Bucks have had a penchant in recent years for turning over half their roster each summer--funny how mediocrity encourages that kind of thing--yet they managed to outdo themselves over the last few months, allowing their three "leading scorers" to depart through either free agency or trades and replacing them with a mixed bag of young talent and proven veterans--all on reasonable deals. With their cap number lurking dangerously close to the tax both this year and next, trading Richard Jefferson for what eventually amounted to Kurt Thomas, Carlos Delfino, Roko Ukic and salary flexibility was largely a necessity given Jefferson's deal greatly outpaced his productivity.

The real question is whether the Bucks actually took enough advantage of the flexibility provided by RJ's departure. While the Bucks' decision not to make a qualifying offer to Charlie Villanueva drew some quizzical looks, the truth was that Villanueva's inconsistent, defenseless style meant he was never in the Bucks long-term plans. Realistically, signing the productive Hakim Warrick for just $3 million and the return of Ersan Ilyasova on a three-year deal for just $7 million is likely to provide far more value to the Bucks than locking Villanueva into a long-term deal. The pair is likely to gather the lion's share of PF minutes this season, though it's also possible Kurt Thomas grabs minutes next to Andrew Bogut rather than simply backing him up.

But perhaps the most intriguing decision was to select Brandon Jennings as the effective replacement for Ramon Sessions. Sure, Jennings beats Sessions on sex appeal and "potential," but the odds of him being able to replace Sessions' productivity in the near term? Doubtful. Don't get me wrong, I'm excited to watch the youngster learn on the job, but there will be some seriously long nights as the kid figures out the NBA game (and how to make jumpshots). That's why Luke Ridnour--finally healthy and looking improved in the preseason--will probably get the starting nod on opening night. The tragedy is that the Bucks' inability to lock in Sessions earlier in the summer led them to effectively use their remaining dollars under the tax on Warrick, Delfino, and Ukic. If Sessions had signed a max MLE deal watching him leave would have been somewhat tolerable, but for four years and $16 million it's tougher to stomach. (Frank)

2. What are the team's biggest strengths?

Scott Skiles. Ethnic diversity.

And, um...scrappiness? OK, maybe I'm being redundant. It's actually pretty simple: the success of the 09/10 Bucks will be mostly dependent on their ability to take another step forward defensively and rebound the way they did in the first half of 09/10.

That doesn't mean they'll be boring. Skiles' teams have always relied on defense and rebounding to play at a fast pace, and that was the formula we began to see a year ago. Before Michael Redd and Andrew Bogut were lost to season-ending injuries, the Bucks were a top five rebounding team and top ten defensively--no small feat for a franchise that had finished in the lower half of the league's defensive efficiency rankings every year since 1991. Leading that effort is '08 second rounder Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, who will compete with Delfino for the starting SF spot and will regularly draw the task of guarding the opponent's best wing scorer.

While they ended up middle-of-the-pack in both rebounding and defensive efficiency, they forced more turnovers than any other team in the league and should be even better now that they've added the ballhawking Jennings, don't have Villanueva getting minutes at PF, and will (hopefully) have Bogut back full-time in the middle. In other words, the Bucks will win by minimizing opponent opportunities (by forcing turnovers and not giving up second chances) and pushing the pace the other way. (Frank)

3. What are the team's biggest weaknesses?

Losing Jefferson, Sessions, and Villanueva necessarily leaves the cupboard rather bare offensively, but those losses will be blunted by the return of Redd and Bogut. Still, don't expect the Bucks to win any shootouts, as they're short on guys who can create their own shot and only Redd and Warrick have shown any ability to get to the line consistently.

More generally, the Bucks simply don't have clear-cut NBA starters aside from Redd and Bogut. There's no shortage of athletes or quality role players, but having the best roster from 11-15 doesn't get you all that much--and it's generally pretty pointless to being pay a few vaguely capable guys to wear street clothes each night. So while there's been lots of talk by the Bucks about being three-deep at every position, that's largely just distracting from the lack of proven quality at most positions. Skiles has admitted the rotation is something of a free-for-all at the moment, with virtually everyone on the roster capable of getting rotation minutes at some point this season. But would that be true if the Bucks had more established players at the point and forward spots? No.

With Bogut back and Villanueva gone, the Bucks also will hope to shore up their porous interior defense. As part of that, the Bucks led the league in fouls a year ago and early indications from the preseason are that not much has changed on that front, though Bogut has played sparingly as well. Bogut has improved steadily over the years in that department, and Kurt Thomas immediately provides a big boost as well. (Frank)

4. What are the goals for this team?

Media, fans, players--certainly they all have different ideas, though all can agree that after five straight last-place finishes in the Central, escaping the division basement would provide a long overdue baby step in the right direction and toward respectability. If that doesn’t happen, well, don’t count the national media among those surprised: they have lower expectations for Milwaukee this year than their usual, remarkably low expectations. Most who follow the team closely however probably peg the Bucks as a similarly capable side to last year. The offseason headlines naturally tilt toward the big names lost or dealt away, but if the team’s two most important chips (Redd and Bogut) return to health, the Bucks should be a mildly competitive team.

So, what should Redd and Bogut aim for, realistically? They are mainstays on these last-place finishers, but the last time either played 80 games, they both did--and the Bucks won 40 games and made the playoffs (2005-06). The chances the Bucks do the same this year are probably the same as the odds Redd and Bogut both stay on the floor without a scrape. Likely? No. Possible? Possible. (Alex)

Projected Finish: 34-48. We're projecting the same record as a year ago for a reason. While the losses of Sessions and Jefferson leave a void at two key positions, don't underestimate the impact of having Redd and Bogut healthy again. Bogut in particular has a chance to prove he's worth the $60 million contract he inked two summers ago, as he'll get every chance to be a bigger factor offensively in addition to his usual role of anchoring the defense. If he can't score 15+ ppg it will only further exacerbate the Bucks' lack of scoring depth.

Moreover, the Bucks' bench is deeper and should offset some of the uncertainty surrounding the starting forward and point guard positions. There's certainly enough upside to contend for one of the final playoff spots, but it will require the health (and productivity) of the big names, Skiles to again get the most out of his team defensively, and at least a couple of the young players--Ilyasova, Jennings, and Mbah a Moute primarily--to make an impact. Given the Bucks never seem to get everything to go their way, we won't hold our breath.

Poll

How many games do the Bucks win in 09/10?

Less than 20

16 votes

20-25

32 votes

26-30

63 votes

31-35

105 votes

36-40

186 votes

41-45

127 votes

46-50

21 votes

50+

27 votes

577 votes | Poll has closed

Preseason Game Thread #3: San Antonio Spurs @ Miami Heat

Tim C. — Sun, 11 Oct 2009 08:00:29 -0000

More photos » by Eric Gay - AP

Manu eez not here today. Now who will I talk about Eva and zee other housewives with? (AP Photo/Eric Gay)

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The Spurs have a game today in Miami and there's some good news and bad news. I'm going to get the bad news out of the way first: Tim Duncan and His Manuness aren't even at the game, and won't play. Don't worry, though... Pop is just being cautious, and wants them to stay in SA to work on their conditioning - it's preseason, after all. The good news? Miami is likely without their two best players, so maybe it's a wash. Preview after the jump.

San Antonio Spurs @ Miami Heat (Preseason)
Where: American Airlines Arena - Miami, FL
When: October 11, 2009, 5:00 PM Spurs time
Watch: This one might be airing on local TV in Texas, but the rest of us are out of luck.

How They Stack Up


0-0	Home	0-0
0-0	Road	0-0
0.0	Offense	0.0
0.0	Defense	0.0
0	FG%	0
0	3-pt%	0
0	FT%	0
0	Rebounds	0
0	TOs	0
0-0	Last 10	0-0
N/A	Streak	N/A


	PG
	SG
	SF
	PF
	C
	Bench
	Coach
	Intangibles
	Mojo
	Winner

Spurs
(0-0)

Vs

Heat
(0-0)

Matchups

Tony Parker

Mario Chalmers

Tony played in the last game, and we can expect him to be back again tonight, in full dominating form. Chalmers is no spring chicken, but he's also not anywhere close to being on Tony's level. We'll probably see a lot of Chris Quinn and George Hill battles tonight as well, with George winning that matchup pretty easily. Isn't depth a wonderful thing?
Advantage: Spurs

1337 Player

Good Player

Keith Bogans

Dorell Wright

Keith started the last game against Olympiacos, and one would assume Pop will repeat that today. He's very solid on defense, and we'll already have enough offense in the game with Tony, RJ, and Bonner/Ian. However, his defense may not be as neccessary, since Dwyane Wade is sitting this one out(I would assume this has something to do with Manu not being at the game as well). Dorell Wright is just a guess - they might also start Q-Rich in Wade's absence.
Advantage: Tied

Big Head

Err... who?

Richard Jefferson

Michael Beasley

RJ's had some trouble getting involved in the offense the first two games. With Manu out, Pop may have Tony force feed him or call more plays for him. Beasley is still an awesome player, despite the substance use. He's very tall for a SF, and there's no way RJ can post him up. And hey, at least we're not putting Finley up against him.
Advantage: Heat

Princess Peanut

Rehabbed & Ready

Ian Mahinmi

Udonis Haslem

Either Ian or DeJuan Blair should get the start tonight. I'm guessing it will be Ian, since he started our first preseason game. Hopefully we'll get to see Ian's good side tonight, as well as a lot of Blair rebounds/putbacks, since the Miami frontcourt is on the small side. The key difference here is that our guys are faster than theirs. If Ian and DeJuan are at their best, this is one matchup we have in our favor.
Advantage: Spurs

Jekyll... or Hyde?

Decent PF.

Matt Bonner

Joel Anthony

Matty and RJ are the only two players to start both preseason games so far. Joel Anthony might actually be worse than him. Keep in mind that the Heat will probably have Anthony guarding Timmeh, so Matt's likey to match up with Haslem. Our backups will destroy theirs, since Antonio McDyess and Theo Ratliff are likely to be coming in off the bench again. Who else has players like that on their bench?
Advantage: Spurs

New Hampshire's finest

Plumbing the Depths

George Hill

Bench

Jamaal Magloire

Magloire is the tallest player on Miami's roster, along with Jermaine O'Neal, who probably won't be playing tonight. That's not saying much, but "You can't teach height". George Hill will probably continue looking like he's good enough to be a starter on a lot of teams. In fact, I'm sure the Heat would love to have him. Let's just be glad he's ours.
Advantage: Spurs

OoeyPooey

No Emotion

Gregg Popovich

Coach

Erik Spoelstra

I don't feel the need to explain why Pop is better than Spoelstra, for some reason...
Advantage: Spurs

Nice Brain

Nice Hair

images via yahoo.com

Intangibles: The Spurs are the smartest team in the league, and they're essentially playing against scrubs. Advantage: Spurs

Mojo: A team that made no significant roster moves in the summer against the team that made the best roster change. Advantage: Spurs

Winner: It's preseason.. who cares? But the Spurs would win this in the regular season, so let's just go with that.

Keys To The Game

Avoid a letdown - Just because this should be an easy win doesn't mean the Spurs should treat it as one. But losing a preseason game isn't the end of the world.
Dominate the frontcourt - The biggest mismatches in this game will be in the frontcourt, and the Spurs need to take advantage by relentlessly feeding the ball to the bigs, and letting them bring down the hammer.
Bench Play - Miami has nobody that can match Hill or Blair off the bench, and our bench goes way deeper than just those two guys anyway. Most of these guys are fighting for minutes and/or a spot in the rotation, so they would be wise to make good things happen out there for the Spurs. Malik Hairston could be an X-factor again tonight.

Last Time They Met

The Spurs last played the Heat in Miami on January 5th, winning 91-84. I wonder if there were any interesting things that happened in that game involving players who won't be on the court tonight...

Some Other Reading

Heat

Peninsula is Mightier - Miami's SBN blog, with a lot of good information. Stop by and say hi, and let them know nicely which team is going to win. :)
Hot Hot Hoops - This is the TrueHoop network blog for the Heat. The more of the TrueHoop Network I see, the more thankful I am for Tim Varner and Graydon Gordian.

Spurs

48 Minutes of Hell: Speaking of Tim and Graydon, they're still doing their thing over at 48MoH. This is required reading for any Spurs fan... right after PtR, of course.
Project Spurs: This is a pretty slick fan blog, and they usually have good content about the Spurs.

The (sort of) Daily Twitter

manuginobili I won't be at the game tmrw. Just wanted to let u know. Had to stay in SA working out ... http://bit.ly/aOpcI

DeJuan45 Just woke up still tired getting ready 4 MIA

Some Other Viewing

Other things of possible interest

Addicting Things - This one is ~~not~~ more constructive, Mr. Beasley.
Playboy Covergirls - This is umm, different. But I promise you the link is safe.
Random Nostalgia comes out of nowhere.

Where to Tune In

TV

Spurs.com doesn't list anything, but since this is an away game, it might be on FSN. No blackouts for away games.

Online

Please don't post links to illegal game feeds in this thread. Links to illegal feeds are not permitted on SBNation, but you can probably find them out there on the internets if you're resourceful and desperate. In fact, nobody can stop you from googling "atdhe". You can also shoot an email to dmenendez@gmail.com for more assistance.

Spurs League Pass audio is still free this year, but won't be working until the regular season. Bookmark it now, especially if you don't have the video league pass.

Radio

If you're in the San Antonio area and aren't near a TV, tune in to WOAI (1200 AM). Yahoo might have an audio link at gametime, and we'll post that here if it becomes available.

Poll

Who will be the Spurs' biggest contributor tonight?

Tony Parker

14 votes

Richard Jefferson

15 votes

Antonio McDyess

0 votes

DeJuan Blair

103 votes

George Hill

29 votes

Ian Mahinmi

6 votes

Someone else (use comments section)

2 votes

169 votes | Poll has closed