SB Nation - Tony Battie

The Orlando Magic's Offense Has Been Efficient But There is Room for Improvement

erivera7 — Sun, 20 Dec 2009 21:37:15 -0000

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If there's a difference between the Orlando Magic of last year and this year, it's the offense. Granted, last year's offense when the Magic had a healthy Jameer Nelson during the regular season ranked 5th in Offensive Rating. But it took a ridiculous shooting display from Nelson over a period of time for Orlando to be as potent as it was on the offensive side of the ball. It didn't seem like Jameer could sustain that type of performance for the entire year but one will never know - he may have, he may have not. As such, when Nelson did get hurt this past season, the Magic's offense couldn't keep pace because the personnel wasn't equipped to make up for the loss of production.

This year, the Magic rank 5th in Offensive Rating once again but there's room for improvement and a reason for that is the improved supporting cast on the team (as well as the impending return of Nelson from injury, etc). When one considers the inefficient shooters general manager Otis Smith jettisoned during the off-season (Rafer Alston, Tony Battie, Hedo Turkoglu) and who he brought in to replace them (Brandon Bass, Vince Carter, Jason Williams, among others), it's no surprise Orlando is a much more potent offensive team. What's scary for the Magic is that the team, offensively, isn't playing at its maximum. One major reason for that has been the sub-standard play from Carter on offense, who has been in a shooting slump lately. Carter hasn't been efficient and although it hasn't affected Orlando much, in terms of team-wide production, it has held the team back from fully realizing its offensive potential. Still, it's a long year and usually the numbers even out when everything is said and done.

Here's a list of the Orlando Magic players who have been efficient on offense:

	TS%	eFG%	Offensive Rating
J. J. Redick	61.6%	57.6%	123
Jason Williams	56.8%	54.9%	121
Ryan Anderson	58.3%	55.0%	115
Dwight Howard	64.5%	63.2%	115
Brandon Bass	56.6%	54.4%	114
Rashard Lewis	57.6%	53.6%	114
Anthony Johnson	53.6%	50.0%	110
Jameer Nelson	54.4%	50.8%	109
league average	53.9%	49.6%	106.6

Impressive.

If Carter (and to a lesser extent, Nelson) returns to form on the offensive side of the ball sooner rather than later, then the Magic could live up to Pro Basketball Prospectus 09-10's projection, which is that the team will finish the regular season with the most efficient offense in the NBA.

Finally, a Win For the Former Orlando Magic Players in New Jersey

Ben Q Rock — Sat, 05 Dec 2009 04:34:50 -0000

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After their 97-91 victory over the Charlotte Bobcats, the New Jersey Nets' long nightmare is over. New Jersey has its first win on the season, improving to 1-18 tonight after setting an NBA record for most losses to start a season, with 18. Brook Lopez--an All-Star in the making--tallied 31 points, 14 rebounds, and 2 blocked shots in the win.

The Nets have four former Orlando Magic players, which is why I'm mentioning their win on a Magic-centric site. Rafer Alston, Tony Battie, Keyon Dooling, and Courtney Lee played a combined 600 regular-season games for Orlando. Lee played a big role in New Jersey's win tonight, with a career-high 27 points on 11-of-16 shooting, including connecting on 3 of his 4 attempts from three-point range. He added 4 rebounds, 1 assist, and 3 steals for good measure. Battie played his first-ever game as a Net, only recording a missed field goal in 6 minutes. Keyon Dooling also made his season debut, and scored 2 points on 1-of-4 shooting. De to a sore left knee, Alston did not play.

The Magic sent Alston, Battie, and Lee to New Jersey in June in the deal headlined by eight-time Vince Carter coming to Orlando; Ryan Anderson, a 21-year-old power forward, also went to Orlando in that transaction. Dooling arrived in New Jersey as part of a sign-and-trade transaction in 2008, after the Magic were unwilling to go above the luxury-tax threshold in order to meet his salary demands.

Congratulations to Rafer, Tony, Keyon, Courtney, and the rest of the New Jersey Nets.

UPDATE: Here's Chris Sheridan's game story for TrueHoop, which includes this bit about Lee, speaking about the last time he won an NBA game:

For Lee, it had been 156 days since he won a meaningful game. "I remember, I dunked on Derek Fisher and had 13 in that game," Lee said, showing memory skills not quite up to par with his basketball skills (he scored only 4 points in that Game 3 victory over the L.A. Lakers during the finals, which he followed up with a 4-point performance in Game 4 -- part of the reason that he is no longer with the Orlando Magic).

Is Sheridan suggesting the Magic would not have traded Lee had he played better in the Finals?

Lawrence Frank gets Bzdelik'd...

Andrew Feinstein — Sun, 29 Nov 2009 17:59:02 -0000

For his second franchise in a row, Kiki Vandeweghe has firebombed the roster, sacked a decent coach with the carnage and prayed for some luck with the draft and free agency. It worked for the Nuggets, but will it work for the Nets in New Jersey/Brooklyn?

Let's take a quick trip back to 2002. The Nuggets are floundering with a losing record, a coach/team president that calls a Hispanic fan a "Mexican piece of shit" and an expensive, relatively worthless roster featuring the likes of draft busts Raef LaFrentz and Tariq "Don't Call Me Olivier St. Jean" Abdul-Wahad, the mercurial Nick Van Exel and the grossly overpaid Avery Johnson. In comes Kiki Vandeweghe - a former Nuggets star who had been mentored by the Nelsons in the Mavericks front office - as the new G.M. Vandeweghe's first act, a bold and swift one, is to deal away LaFrentz, Abdul-Wahad, Van Exel and Johnson to his former team, take back some expiring contracts, suck for a season-and-a-half and hope for the best with free agency and the draft.

The huge - and in my opinion, unforgivable - misstep of drafting all-time bust (and Denver Stiffs Hall of Famer) Nikoloz Tskitishvili aside, Vandeweghe's gamble worked. As part of the plan, Vandeweghe brought in a young, hard-working coach in Jeff Bzdelik to change the culture on the floor and the Nuggets remarkably won 17 more games than they should have in the 2002-03 season. 17 wins was low enough, however, for the Nuggets to score Carmelo Anthony in the 2003 draft and by parting with those heavy contracts, the Nuggets had enough cap room to sign Voshon Lenard, Andre Miller and my all-time favorite one-season Nugget, Jon Barry.

Years later and in a new geographical location, Vandeweghe is doing very similar things in New Jersey under the tutelage of Rod Thorn (who in the ironies or ironies swindled Vandeweghe into trading three number one picks for Kenyon Martin in 2004). Hired in late 2007 as a "Special Assistant" to Thorn, Vandeweghe became the Nets G.M. in May of 2008.

During Vandeweghe's tenure with the Nets, the franchise has dealt the aging, overpaid Jason Kidd to Dallas for Devin Harris and several soon-to-be-expiring contracts including Trenton Hassell's, sent the overpaid Richard Jefferson to Milwaukee for Yi Jianlin and Bobby Simmons' soon-to-be-expiring contract and recently traded another max player, Vince Carter, to Orlando for the expiring contracts of Rafer Alston and Tony Battie.

Left in the wake of all these deals is the 26th lowest payroll in the NBA with the salaries of Simmons, Alston, Battie, Hassell, Keyon Dooling and Jarvis Hayes coming off the books in 2010. Plus, the Nets have one of the better young point guards in the NBA in Devin Harris, a solid center in Brook Lopez (even though my Uncle Marty claims he's a Stiff after watching him up close against the Nuggets last week), a good swingman in Chris Douglas-Roberts and even Yi was playing well before going down with another injury. Oh, and the Nets have their own lottery pick plus the Mavericks' first round pick in 2010.

But also left in the wake is a lost season that head coach Lawrence Frank - whom Vandeweghe inherited - is about to take the fall for. Saddled with a gutted-out, injury-riddled roster Frank is being Bzdelik'd. And it's not fair. Lest we forget that Frank won his first 13 games in a row when he took over the Nets for Byron Scott several seasons ago. But life's not fair (Frank does make - gasp - $4 million a year, so I don't feel that bad for him) and unlike Bzdelik's amazing performance in 2002-03, Frank's team is losing all the games they're supposed to lose.

Similar to the situation for Bzdelik in Denver, Vandeweghe won't stand up for Frank (even though this is clearly Vandeweghe's plan) and is just buying time before he can hire a big name coach to right the ship when LeBron James and/or other free agents and a top draft pick join the franchise next summer. Different from what happened in Denver, though, is that Vandeweghe is rumored to take over as head coach. I guess the bottom line is that when you lose your first 16 games (about to be 18), no matter how bad your roster/injury situation is your job isn't salvageable. Good bye, Lawrence Frank.

How's this for a far-fetched prediction moving forward? Vandeweghe takes over as coach for the remainder of the season and - a la Kevin McHale in Minnesota - the Nets beat up on some equally bad teams en route to winning about 15-18 games with a spirited effort on the floor. Then, the Nets score LeBron in the 2010 free agent sweepstakes (I really don't think LBJ is leaving Cleveland, but if he does it's to the Nets who have the best surrounding cast plus cap space to offer him) and none other than current Nuggets coach George Karl takes over as head coach when the Nuggets fail to offer Karl an extension. (On a side note, I used to think that Karl was imposed on Vandeweghe by Nuggets owner Stan Kroenke in 2005 but have since learned that Karl and Vandeweghe have a friendly relationship and get along great, so I'm just connecting the dots here.)

With Karl overseeing a roster featuring Harris at point guard, Courtney Lee or CDR at shooting guard, LBJ at small forward, (enter free agent here) at power forward and Lopez at center, the Nets move into their shiny, new Brooklyn confines in 2011 with the support of their Russian billionaire owner as a championship contender.

Frank might be getting Bzdelik'd right before our eyes, but sunny days are ahead for the Nets and Kiki knows it.

Photo courtesy of AP Photos: Bill Kostroun

Orlando Magic News for November 19th: Stan Van Gundy Will No Longer Accentuate the Negative, and More

Ben Q Rock — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 22:21:35 -0000

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Orlando Magic: Stan Van Gundy vows to limit negativity after private meeting with C Dwight Howard
Brian Schmitz of the Orlando Sentinel has the surprising news that Orlando Magic coach Stan Van Gundy has, after meeting with franchise center and team co-captain Dwight Howard, vowed to be less negative. He believes adjusting his attitude will have a positive effect on the team's energy and mood.

"I think, as a team, there was a lot of negativity and it's not like Stan's a negative guy," Howard said before the Magic left for Boston to face the Celtics on Friday night. "But it's like there's always some clashes and focusing so much on our mistakes. Instead of bringing each other down, we have to pull each other up.

"That's the only thing I wanted from coach."

This news is not inconsequential. Van Gundy's earned the nickname "Stan Van Grumpy" for his wild gesticulations and expressiveness on the sidelines. This development is one to keep an eye on going forward.

Click through to read the whole piece, which includes great quotes from Van Gundy himself. He may cut back on the negativity, but I hope he doesn't cut back on the humor.
Antonio Daniels could be in the mix if Orlando Magic decide to sign another point guard
As an example, here's some of Van Gundy's wit:

Coach Stan Van Gundy, tongue planted firmly in cheek, on all teams reporting their players undergo "successful" surgery: "Grant Hill had five successful surgeries. Somehow he could never play after them, but they were called a success. They're all called successes and that means the guy lived through it, which is a success, I guess."
Changing of the Guard
Kevin Pelton of Basketball Prospectus attributes some of the Magic's defensive struggles to Howard and Jameer Nelson. However, he believes Howard will foul less frequently as the season progresses, which will have a positive effect on the team's defense as a while.

The league's best defensive team a year ago has struggled at times this season. Orlando has been playing some makeshift lineups with Rashard Lewis suspended until Monday and a variety of players hobbled. Still, the poor start has been a cause for alarm for the Magic, with Stan Van Gundy criticizing the defensive efforts of Jameer Nelson and reigning Defensive Player of the Year Dwight Howard. Before Nelson was sidelined by a torn meniscus, Orlando was 4.6 points worse per 100 possessions on defense with him on the floor. Oddly, while the sample size is small, no other full-time starter has been a net minus defensively. As for Howard, his blocked-shot rate is down from last year's 5.9 percent to 4.4 percent, more in line with his career numbers. Equally troubling is that Howard's foul rate is up from 4.2 percent of possessions last year to 6.0 percent this season. Howard is too good not to improve on that, which will help the Magic's defense as a whole.
Mentoring the young guys
On his official blog, Howard writes about how he tries to help young players in the same way Tony Battie, Grant Hill, and Rasheed Wallace did when he was new to the league.
Where might Monta Ellis end up? Let’s scour the field: Philly, Miami, Memphis
Tim Kawakami of the San Jose Mercury News considers potential trade partners for the Golden State Warriors, as shooting guard Monta Ellis has requested to be dealt. He says the Magic might be interested, but ultimately leaves them off the final list of six suitors.
Milwaukee Bucks rookie Brandon Jennings is taking the league by storm
Although this link isn't directly related to today's Magic, I thought it was pertinent. Bucks coach Scott Skiles, a former Magic point guard, explains what makes the electrifying rookie Brandon Jennings so lethal. His quote reminded me a bit of Jameer Nelson.

"He's one of those guys who has vision and can score without dominating the ball. It's easy to say I want a point guard to run my club and all that, but in the NBA a point guard has got to score some points for you, and he can do both," coach Scott Skiles said before Milwaukee's 99-85 victory over New Jersey on Wednesday night, in which Jennings scored 19 points.
UPDATE: NBA.com: League's best one-on-one defenders get plenty of help
John Schuhmann of NBA.com found that the New Jersey Nets have done the best job of defending L.A. Lakers star Kobe Bryant in recent years, in no small part due to current Magic guard Vince Carter's efforts. (HT: ben_gleicher)

The Lakers won five of the six games the two teams played in the last three years, but in none of the six did Bryant shoot better than 33 percent from the field.

Vince Carter was the primary defender on Bryant in those games (something to keep in mind when the Magic and Lakers meet again), but fellow ex-Nets Richard Jefferson, Jason Kidd and Antoine Wright also took their turns. As a team, the Nets did a great job of keeping Bryant out of the paint and forcing him to shoot jumpers. And when he did, they borrowed a page from [Shane] Battier's book and got a hand in his face almost every time.

Replacing Estimates of Magic 08-09 Stats With Real Ones

jonnichols — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 13:15:09 -0000

Some of the best stats out there, ones that most fans familiar with advanced stats know about, are actually based on estimates using box score data. For example, when we calculate Marcin Gortat's Offensive Rebound Rate, we're trying to determine what percentage of available offensive rebounds he collected while he was on the court. However, we don't really know how many rebounds were available. We have to estimate based on how things usually go for the Magic and their opponents, and assign a portion of that to Gortat.

Using box score data, that's the best we can do. But we also have play-by-play data, and we don't have to estimate. We (actually, a programming script) can go through the hundreds of thousands of recorded plays from the NBA 08-09 season, and find how many of those resulted in offensive rebound opportunities for Gortat. From there we just total how many offensive boards he had, and divide that by the number of available ones.

This method removes some of the guessing game, and the results of this method on various stats for the Magic will be discussed today. For a full explanation of how everything works, I will refer you to the article I wrote over at Basketball-Statistics.com last Thursday, which is here. Let's start by comparing the estimated rebound rates to the actual ones, as calculated from the play-by-play data, after the jump...

We can see that the estimates are pretty darn close. Amazingly, though, Dwight Howard is an even better rebounder than we thought (by 0.3%). Gortat's offensive rebounding may have been slightly overestimated, but his defensive rebounding was underestimated. The biggest differences were for Keith Bogans and Rafer Alston, who were actually not rebounding as well as we thought.

Now let's move on to some stuff for the little guys. Here are the comparisons for assists and steals:

Jameer Nelson's Assist Rate may have been inflated, while Anthony Johnson didn't receive enough credit. When we use the play-by-play data instead of the estimates, the difference between the two shrinks from 10.9% to 7%. My play-by-play steal rates are slightly lower for every player, and that may have something to do with differences in the way I calculated possessions.

Finally, let's look at blocks and usage rate:

Again, we see that each player's PBP data is less than his estimated data. This is not a Magic-only thing. The reason for this difference is again due to different calculations. Block percentage is normally calculated as the percentage of opponents' two-point attempts that were blocked by the player in question. My calculations counted three-point attempts as well. I feel that this way is more appropriate because, even though it's rare, three-pointers do get blocked. With usage rates, we again see that the estimates were actually pretty close to the real thing.

Because the differences between the estimates and the play-by-play data are usually small, this information may seem trivial. In many ways, it is. However, it's nice to get that warm fuzzy feeling when you know the numbers you're looking at are thoroughly calculated instead of just estimations.

What, does nobody else get that feeling?

Examining the Orlando Magic's Offense With and Without Floor-Stretching Power Forwards

Ben Q Rock — Sun, 15 Nov 2009 13:00:33 -0000

by Jesse D. Garrabrant - NBAE/Getty Images

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Tomorrow night, Rashard Lewis will take the court in a meaningful game for the Orlando Magic for the first time since June 14th, 2009. A 10-game suspension to start the regular season due to testing positive for a banned substance has kept Lewis out of action. This 10 games he's missed to start the season exceeds the total number of game he missed in his first two seasons with Orlando combined: he missed one game in 2007/08 with a strained neck, and the final three games last season with knee tendinitis. That's it.

I believe Lewis' durability, and his soft-spoken nature--his official website listed "The Quiet Man" as one of his nicknames prior to its recent overhaul--have conspired to make Magic fans take him for granted. If there's anything the first 10 games of this season have highlighted, though, it's that this team needs him, or a player like him, in order to succeed on the offensive end.

Stan Van Gundy's game-plan since joining the Magic involves surrounding All-Star center Dwight Howard with four reliable three-point shooters. Lewis, with a career three-point percentage of 39.1%, certainly fits this description. The wrinkle is that he, a career-long small forward with the Seattle SuperSonics, has played heavily at power forward in Van Gundy's offense. Naturally, many pundits consider this decision gimmicky. If the Magic had a "true" power forward, one who could "get dirty" and "bang around inside," Orlando would enjoy more success. Thus, when the Magic signed big, burly Brandon Bass this summer, these critics assumed Bass would start at power forward and Lewis would move back to small forward. Nevermind the fact that Orlando had just reached the NBA Finals with Lewis starting 79 games at big forward, and led the NBA in three-pointers made and attempted that season.

With Lewis' suspension, the Magic turned to recently acquired, second-year man Ryan Anderson to start at power forward. Trainer/scout extraordinaire David Thorpe, of Scouts, Inc. and ESPN, told our own Eddy Rivera this summer that he regards Anderson as "Lewis-lite" due to their similar skill-sets. And through the first six games of this season, the Magic posted an offensive rating of 116.7 and an effective field goal percentage of 53.0% with Anderson contributing 15 points, and 2.8 three-pointers, per game. The Magic's offense was coasting until he sprained his ankle, which left Orlando with only Bass to play power forward.

And this is, as I'll show after the fold, where the Magic's offense went off the rails. The three games Bass started in Lewis' and Anderson's absences--before he came down with the flu, comically leaving the Magic with 0 available power forwards on a 13-man roster against the New Jersey Nets--highlighted for me just how important a floor-stretching power forward is to the Magic's offense. So I compiled data from those three games, and from the three games Lewis missed last season, to illustrate the extent to which Orlando's offense suffers when playing "traditionally," or the way most pundits prescribed in the wake of their Finals ouster.

Before showing the results, I want to first define the terms as they appear in the charts below. "Stretch" refers to a starting lineup which included a non-traditional power forward. These lineups include the 160 games Lewis started at that position, 6 from Ryan Anderson, 1 from Hedo Turkoglu, and 1 from Matt Barnes. Classifying Barnes as a "stretch" power forward is a bit dubious, as he's a career 32.6% shooter from long-range. Nonetheless, he's certainly not a "traditional" power forward, which leads me to my explanation of that term: any power forward who doesn't have three-point range. Specifically, that's Tony Battie in his three starts last season, and Bass in three starts this year.

There are obvious caveats which I'd also like to address: first, that sample size skews heavily toward "stretch": 168 data points for it compared to 6 for "traditional." Second, the three games Battie started were the final ones of last season, in which the Magic had nothing at stake. Third, neither Bass nor Battie has Lewis' level of talent, and any offense will suffer when it subtracts an All-Star and adds two career role-players. Had the Magic replaced Lewis with a "traditional" power forward who also happened to be an All-Star--Carlos Boozer springs immediately to mind--then the results may have been different. Let's bear all these facts in mind when we consider the data.

Here are the Magic's offensive statistics over the last three seasons, split by games with a "stretch" power forward and games with a "traditional" power forward in the starting lineup:

Season	Starting PF Type	GP	Efficiency	eFG%	FT Rate	OReb%	TO Rate
2007/08	Stretch	82	111.2	53.7%	25.6	23.4	15.0
2008/09	Stretch	79	112.0	52.3%	25.3	24.3	15.5
"	Traditional	3	103.4	44.5%	21.1	28.1	12.2
2009/10	Stretch	7	116.7	53.7%	25.0	25.2	15.3
"	Traditional	3	97.7	46.8%	19.0	18.9	14.7

Now here are the same numbers presented by split, and not by year:

Season	Starting PF Type	GP	Efficiency	eFG%	FT Rate	OReb%	TO Rate
2007/08- 2009/10	Stretch	168	111.8	53.0%	25.4	23.7	15.2
"	Traditional	6	100.6	45.6%	20.1	23.7	13.4
Difference			-11.2	-7.4%	-5.3	0.0	-1.8

As is readily apparent, the Magic suffer mightily on offense when forced to start a traditional" power forward. Their efficiency drops a shade over 10%; shooting and foul-drawing dips; and only turnovers improve. Oddly, even with "traditional" power forwards--with whom we'd expect to be more successful on the glass--the Magic do not improve on their offensive rebounding, although that fact might be more of a reflection of Van Gundy's strategy of sending four men back after a shot attempt in order to shore-up transition defense.

I also measured the effect starting a stretch power forward had on the team's shot selection. Note that FGA% refers to the percentage of overall shots, while FG% refers to conversion rate.

Season	Starting PF Type	GP	Shot Composition			Conversion
Season	Starting PF Type	GP	2FGA%	3FGA%	FTA%	2FG%	3FG%	FT%
2007/08- 2009/10	Stretch	168	49.5	24.5	26.1	51.4%	39.4%	72.1%
"	Traditional	6	56.9	18.7	24.4	46.0%	29.7%	62.3%
Difference			+7.4	-5.8	-2.1	-5.4%	-9.7%	-9.8%

The Magic shoot much fewer three-pointers when they field a traditional starting five; that much is obvious, because if it weren't I wouldn't have written this post. What's also significant is that they don't shoot nearly as many free throws. As New Jersey Nets coach Lawrence Frank recently explained to the New York Times, the most efficient shots in basketball are, in order: the free throw, the layup, and the three-pointer. In other words, the Magic get fewer attempts at two of the best shots an offense can possibly get when they start a traditional lineup. Worse still, they don't make nearly as many of their two-point attempts. Their offense, in short, becomes a shell of itself. And while they have the pieces to be a top-five defensive team--they led the league in defensive efficiency last year, after all--they'd have to play stifling D every single night to compensate for such an anemic, inefficient offense.

All these data lead me to several conclusions: first, Rashard Lewis is vitally important to Orlando's success on offense. Second, the 21-year-old Ryan Anderson--whose starts comprise 6 of the 7 data points for stretch power forwards this season--figures to be a key player for Orlando this season and in the long-term. In fact, Anderson's impressed Magic fans so much that a plurality of 3QC poll respondents believe he should continue to start even when Lewis returns, which would shift Lewis to small forward.

And that's where I disagree.

Keeping Anderson in the starting lineup leaves the bench fairly bereft of firepower. Guards Jason Williams and J.J. Redick have three-point range, but are inconsistent shooters; ditto for forwards Mickael Pietrus and Barnes. Bass has missed all 11 treys he's attempted in 3773 career minutes, while center Marcin Gortat is 1-for-1 in 1026 career minutes. Conversely, moving Anderson to the bench enables the Magic to play with a floor-spacing power forward for all 48 minutes each game, if they so choose. Nothing but good can come of such an arrangement; Dwight Howard gets room to work inside, while Jameer Nelson, Vince Carter, and Pietrus have lanes through which to drive at their heart's content. The offense would never lag, at least in theory, because it would always have range at four positions. This luxury is one the Magic have never enjoyed. While it's true that they employed three-point specialist power forward Brian Cook for parts of the 2007/08 and 2008/09 seasons, his poor rebounding, defense, and conditioning kept him out of the rotation and prevented him from making a consistent impact. Anderson figures see regular playing time, despite his needing work defensively, and is a superior rebounder to Cook.

So if it were up to me, Nelson, Carter, Barnes, Lewis, and Howard would comprise the Magic's starting five against Charlotte tomorrow night; Anderson would play a key role off the bench. And if it were up to me, we'd all take a moment to appreciate Lewis' sizable role in Orlando's success, and that NBA teams can indeed win big without a traditional power forward.

Orlando Magic News for October 30th: Courtney Lee Has Something to Say; A Retrospective Look at Dennis Scott

erivera7 — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 18:52:38 -0000

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Former Magic guard Courtney Lee still has love for city of Orlando and its fans
Josh Robbins shows that Courtney, in his heart, still has an 'Orlando State of Mind'. Here's what Lee had to say about the city:

"Orlando is the best," he says. "You've got the weather. Everything is just so calm. You see palm trees. The sun's always shining. New Jersey is a little bit different. It's definitely industrialized. There's more to do, especially with going into the city and stuff like that. But Orlando's more my speed for a relaxation place." [...]

"I want to thank the people in Orlando, basically the fans," he says. "Tell them I appreciated their support and what not. I'll always love Orlando. Just let them know that."
Saying goodbye to Courtney Lee tough for Magic
George Diaz takes a retrospective look back at how tough it was for the Orlando Magic to give up former rookie Courtney Lee.

It's obvious that Courtney Lee was not an easy guy to say goodbye to as the Magic retooled their roster for this season.

Count owner Rich DeVos among those with serious reservations about giving him up in the deal for Vince Carter.

"Courtney Lee was a tough conversation," Magic GM Otis Smith said. "And I equally agreed I didn’t want to give him up either. But we had an opportunity to improve our team."

Finally, at Smith's insistence, DeVos signed off on the deal.
This coincides with what Otis Smith stated to me in a press conference - here - when Vince Carter was introduced during the off-season.
1990 NBA Draft Remix
Jeff Fox of SLAM ONLINE takes a look back at the 1990 NBA Draft and for fun, alters history.

Pick No. 4 | Orlando Magic

Actual Selection: Dennis Scott

Draft 365 Remix: Antonio Davis (45)

Antonio Davis is proof that if at first you don’t succeed, try again. After being exiled to Europe for three seasons at the start of his career, Davis finally made the NBA and went on to play over 900 games and suited up for the 2001 All-Star Game.
How ironic? Antonio Davis was always a player that the Orlando Magic looked to acquire while Tracy McGrady and Grant Hill were around.
For those that have Twitter, Dennis Scott has an account and it is verified. If you want to follow a former Magic player, here's your chance.
The 2009-10 All-Decline Team
John Hollinger of ESPN.com takes a look at which players are expected to decline, statistically, in the 2009-2010 NBA season.

Jameer Nelson, Magic: Orlando's point man and locker-room leader has a bright future ahead of him, but I'm skeptical that he'll ever shoot as well as he did a season ago from midrange. Nelson shot 54.5 percent on long 2s, leading the league by a comfortable margin, and shot 56 percent on any 2 away from the basket -- a category in which no other player in basketball topped 50 percent. Nelson won't top 50 percent on either this time around, and that will take his other numbers down a peg.
Don't be alarmed by this report, this should come as no surprise given that Jameer shot the ball last year at an unsustainable rate over time. What's important is that Nelson is projected to have a "healthy" PER this year.
BBR News: 2009-10 Changes and Additions
Justin Kubatko of Basketball-Reference reveals a cool feature on the site.

Each team now has a clubhouse page. These pages will include: a team calendar; a summary of how the team's players have performed over the last ten games; a list of upcoming opponents with win probabilities; divisional standings; team leaders; and more. The clubhouse can be accessed from any of the team's 2009-10 pages (e.g., the team's roster and statistics page) by using the drop-down menu near the top of the page. There will also be a link in the standings (denoted "C") that will lead to the clubhouse pages.
By all means, I suggest everyone bookmark this page because it contains indispensable information about the Orlando Magic.
UPDATE (from Ben): Orlando’s Lewis Not Yet Part of This Season’s Magic
Magic coach Stan Van Gundy discusses the difficulty he faces in keeping Rashard Lewis in basketball shape during Lewis' 10-game suspension.

"He’ll come back in shape and ready to play. The problem is he’s just not getting a lot of basketball. He was up until the start of the regular season. Now, we played Wednesday, we did not practice yesterday, walked through this morning. We’ll do a little bit tomorrow, not a whole lot. Then we’ll play Toronto and probably not practice Monday. It’s tough to get him any type of basketball action in and that’s the hard part."
Former Magic trio starting from scratch in New Jersey
UPDATE 2: John Schuhmann of NBA.com elaborates on how former Magic players Rafer Alston, Tony Battie, and Courtney Lee have gotten accustomed to life in New Jersey.

Post-Game Media Availability: And So It Begins

erivera7 — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 03:46:22 -0000

More photos » by Phelan M. Ebenhack - AP

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One down, 81 (and more) to go.

The Orlando Magic kicked off opening night, the final one at the Amway Arena, off with a bang by defeating the Philadelphia 76ers with relative ease. The game wasn't as close as the score suggests - head coach Stan Van Gundy wasn't pleased with the team's effort in the fourth quarter, where he felt there was a lack of focus & intensity on both ends on the floor. That being said, it was a win, and that's all you can ask for.

I was able to ask a few questions to Van Gundy amongst the media, as well as speak with Mickael Pietrus one-on-one, Ryan Anderson, Vince Carter, and Dwight Howard.

Here's what they had to say:

Stan Van Gundy:

Could you talk about Mickael Pietrus' performance against Andre Iguodala, defensively?

I thought, especially early on, he really set a good tone. I thought he was very, very focused defensively. I thought M.P. had a great, great first quarter on both ends of the floor and I thought his focus defensively was outstanding and set a good tone on Iguodala so I thought that was good. The guy we couldn't guard at all was [Marreese] Speights, couldn't guard him. Everybody else until the fourth quarter, I thought we did a decent job but not on him.

You decided to go with Ryan Anderson at the four, tonight. How did you think he performed?

Well, I mean, I thought that he's playing against one of the best power forwards in this league [Elton Brand] and I would say that tonight, we got the best of that position so that I think speaks volumes. Obviously, we gave him a lot of help at the defensive end of the floor but I didn't think until the fourth quarter a couple times he really hurt us tonight and Ryan's shooting certainly hurt them so I thought that matchup was a favorable one for us and that's not how it would look on paper.

More after the jump.

Mickael Pietrus:

It seemed that you did a good job of preventing Iguodala from doing what he wanted offensively. Could you talk about that?

I think that I was trying to [defend] him the best way I can. I have to guard the best player every night so I'll take the challenge and make sure that they don't get off on a good start. They're great players so some nights, great players are going to make great plays so I'm just trying to get myself ready to help my team and try to get a win every night.

When you're starting, what's your mentality? What do you want to do when you're in the game?

Championship. We're thinking about the trophy, the trophy that we missed last year but we had a great experience so that from the get-go, I'm thinking about the championship. I'm not thinking about who I have to guard, I'm thinking about the trophy.

What was it like seeing the Eastern Conference banner? I know that's not the ultimate goal, but how much does it mean to you?

You got to enjoy what's good in your life so I think the 2008-2009 flag was nice but it's not what we want. We want a championship so I think tonight we got off to a good start, we made shots, but I think that we just have to keep going and the season will be fine for us.

Could you talk about the team's defense tonight? It seemed that for the first couple of quarters, it was fine, but not in the fourth quarter.

Well, when you're up 30, it's kind of hard to focus defensively and offensively so I think that's how it goes sometimes so we make sure that we watch the lead in the fourth quarter. We know that we're not perfect so we'll make sure that when we play like a championship team, we make sure that we don't do those mistakes but I think every team in the NBA, when you're up 30, it's kind of hard to take over a game but the most important thing is that we did it, we won, now we have to move on to New Jersey and try to get 2 in a row.

How nice will it be to see some of your former teammates, Tony Battie, Courtney Lee, Rafer Alston, the guys that were a part of the experience last year?

We really appreciate what they did for the Magic. I think that with them, we made it to the Finals so we really got to thank them for what they done for us and it's also going to be happy to see them in New Jersey so it's going to be exciting.

Ryan Anderson:

How much is it a luxury, for when the starters come off, to be able to have a bench that increases the lead and keeps things going?

It just makes the game a lot easier. The guys who are starting, it makes it so they don't have to press and come out to keep the momentum, the game our way, it's just a harder way to play and when the games drops off, I don't see that happening. We have so many different lineups, different guys who can come in and play, if somebody is having an off-night, you can bet that somebody off the bench is going to step up and play great.

Could you talk about Jason Williams' performance tonight? He was able to come off the bench, add some energy instantly, and score.

I think he's a game-changer for us tonight because he just rallied points, got everybody in the game, but it's just great playing alongside him because he finds you, he'll look for you and find you. He's not really a score-first guy, although he was hitting a ton of shots. He's a leader, he's a great player, so I'm real happy to be alongside him. I mean, I can't say enough how great of a leader on the court he is.

For you and Vince, you're going to be going back to New Jersey. What will that be like for you?

I'm actually pretty excited. I haven't seen those guys in a long time so it'll be good to see my old teammates and the management there. I got really close with them, they're great people. No hard feelings at all about anything but it'll be exciting to bring this team along over there and see what we can do in front of that crowd.

Vince Carter:

How much of a luxury is it to have reserves that can come in and give the starters plenty of rest?

That's what it's all about. It cuts down on the starter's minutes and I'll tell you, that'll keep us fresh on the floor if need be. If you can come in with another wave of guys who can score, guys who can shoot, guys who can make plays, it makes your team a whole lot harder to guard.

Could you talk about Jason Williams' performance? It seemed when he came into the game, he was able to add energy, score.

He got us started, he shot the ball extremely well, moved the ball, pushed the tempo in transition, and that's what he can do.

How much does sacrifice mean to this team?

It's very important. If you look at some of the great teams that should have won championships but didn't, it's just the sacrifice. There's so many variables that cause a team not to win but for us being committed to sacrifice, that it's going to take to win each and every night, through the bad times. We haven't seen or had any situations where we've lost two or three in a row, how do we react? We're trying to avoid it as well, going 82-0 would be great, but that's the biggest thing right now and I think so far, it seems like we're prepared for that and we're willing to do what it takes, then we'll see about that bad stretch.

Dwight Howard:

How nice is it to get the regular season underway and get back into the grind of things?

Well, I think Stan [Van Gundy] pretty much got us back into it in training camp. We knew what was going to happen once training day started but we're just looking forward to getting better, we got to stay humble, stay hungry, and if we do that, we'll win a championship.

How much of a luxury is it to have a bench, to come in, bring some energy?

We got to be able to trust the guys on our bench and I think we have a pretty good bench, nobody is going to say it because on paper, it might look like we don't have a bench, but every guy who steps on the floor, they know know what they have to do. If we all do it together and once we play like that, it's going to be hard to beat us.

How far are you defensively, as a team?

We're getting better. I think right now, we know we can score and we try to rely on that, but there's going to be nights where the ball won't go in the hole so we have to rely on our defense so it's going to get a lot better. I think it's just early in the season, where guys are used to playing, we got a lot of new guys and the way we play in our system is different, so once we get accustomed to playing with each other, we'll be a lot better.

Orlando Magic 2009/2010 Season Preview

Ben Q Rock — Sat, 24 Oct 2009 18:04:31 -0000

Team Name: Orlando Magic

Last Year's Record: 59-23

Key Losses: point guard Rafer Alston (via trade with New Jersey), power forward Tony Battie (via trade with New Jersey), shooting guard Courtney Lee (via trade with New Jersey), point guard Tyronn Lue (via free agency; not re-signed), small forward Jeremy Richardson (via free agency to Aris Thessaloniki), and small forward Hedo Turkoglu (via sign-and-trade with Toronto)

Key Additions: power forward Ryan Anderson (via trade with New Jersey), combo forward Matt Barnes (via fee agency from Phoenix), forward/center Brandon Bass (via free agency from Dallas), shooting guard Vince Carter (via trade with New Jersey), and Jason Williams (via free agency from retirement)

What significant moves were made during the offseason?

Gosh, where to start with this question?

The Magic showed the door to Alston, Lee, and Turkoglu--three-fifths of the Magic's starting lineup in the NBA Finals--in large part to make room for Carter and Bass, the team's most significant short-term additions. Basketball observers appear to be split on the Magic's decision to essentially swap Turkoglu--their go-to scorer in the clutch, and their secondary playmaker--for Carter, who has not enjoyed playoff success or media acclaim in recent years. Nevermind the fact that Turkoglu had one borderline All-Star-caliber season before bottoming out in 2009, or that Carter might one day find himself enshrined in the Hall of Fame; who needs logic or statistics when we can rely on a few nationally televised games and abstract notions like "chemistry"?

We should not overlook the other additions, although Carter understandably looms largest. Bass, an undersized, powerful, bowling-ball of a frontcourt player in the Jason Maxiell mold, does everything Tony Battie did, but better; and, at 24, he may not have reached his peak. I think we tend to overstate Barnes' reputation as a defender just a tad--there's no way he's as talented as Mickael Pietrus on that end--but he's still well above-average, and can handle the ball some offensively. If nothing else, Williams is an upgrade over incumbent backup point guard Anthony Johnson due to his speed and superior court vision, although we suspect his lackluster defense might cause his grip on the position to loosen as the season progresses. Neither player gives the Magic an upgrade over the departed Alston, which sounds worrisome until one realizes that Alston never would have been happy backing up Nelson this year. That the Magic dealt him to a team with a rotation featuring an All-Star (Devin Harris) and an underrated sixth-man (Keyon Dooling) at the position is a small irony.

Anderson? He's the wild card. For all we know, he'll start at power forward during Rashard Lewis' 10-game suspension... then vanish from the rotation completely upon Lewis' return. If he can stop getting his shot swatted inside, and if he can keep his three-point shooting high, he could prove quite the secret weapon for Orlando. I mean that. He didn't turn 21 until the middle of the playoffs, he's 6'10", he can rebound at a rate comparable to the more imposing Bass, and he can shoot the three-ball. There's a lot to like about him. Then again, there's a lot to like about Lewis and Bass as well, and there are only so many minutes (48!) available at power forward. This coaching problem for Stan Van Gundy is one plenty of other helmsmen would love to have.

A lot of coaches would love to have Lee, just 24, on their team, too, given his selfless play and immediate ability to contribute as a rookie. In New Jersey, he'll have more offensive responsibilities, and will often be the best perimeter defender on the floor at any given time. The stage would be set for him to take over the Nets' starting two-guard job for the next decade if it weren't for the presence of second-year man Chris Douglas-Roberts and rookie Terrence Williams to challenge him. I understand that Magic fans are upset to see Lee go, but I can't help but think that we've overrated him--he's only a three-point shooter and fast-break finisher on offense--while simultaneously underrating the younger Anderson, who had a higher Player Efficiency Rating than Lee did last year, albeit at a much different position.

The Magic won't miss Lue or Richardson much, as they only played a combined 222 minutes over 26 games last season. That they replaced their spots at the back end of the rotation with Williams (28 minutes per game in 2007/08, his most recent NBA season) and Anderson (20 minutes per game last season) speaks volumes about Orlando's--please permit me this adjective this one time--silly depth.

What are the team's biggest strengths?

With four recent All-Stars starting, as well as a bench featuring two of the league's best frontcourt reserves, and specialists, depth is absolutely Orlando's forte. Their projected second string of Williams, J.J. Redick, Mickael Pietrus, Bass, and Marcin Gortat could probably give bottom-feeding teams' starting lineups a run for their money. Last year's team was three wins away from a championship: now envision that team with a healthy Nelson replacing Alston, the more efficient Carter using Turkoglu's possessions, and the more dynamic Bass filling in for Battie. Upgrades across the board.

Indeed, as I alluded to earlier, Orlando's offense--which rated a surprisingly mediocre 11th in efficiency a year ago--should be much more potent this year. Carter is much more efficient than Turkoglu, although he's prone to the occasional awful game from time-to-time as well. Nelson likely won't duplicate his amazing shooting from last year (50% from the field, 45% from three-point range), but Carter's improvement over Turkoglu should mitigate any minor drop-off in Nelson's percentages. And with Carter the second option on offense behind Dwight Howard, Rashard Lewis' usage rate could decline, which could lead to an increase in efficiency if Nelson and Carter can get him the ball in the right place.

Defense might be another story, as no one has ever revered Carter for his work at that end of the floor. Then again, Lewis had a reputation as a sieve during his days with the Seattle SuperSonics, but developed into an above-average defender at power forward since joining the Magic; Carter, playing for a championship in his hometown, and under the guidance of the defensive ace Van Gundy, and with the reigning Defensive Player of the Year behind him, could see an improvement along the lines of Lewis'. Nonetheless, we expect Orlando's defense to regress slightly this year, which isn't so bad; the Magic lead the league in defensive efficiency a year ago, so a modest decline would still have them in the top 5.

A top-5 offense with a top-5 defense? Holy smokes, what potential this team has! Of course, Boston, Cleveland, the L.A. Lakers, and the San Antonio Spurs can all make similar claims about their respective proficiencies on both side of the ball. We are in for quite the season, aren't we?

What are the team's biggest weaknesses?

Saying "none" would be hubris of the highest order. But with a potential to rate in the upper echelon of the league on both sides of the ball, well, it's hard to point to anything really specific with this team. Magic detractors say that Carter will sink the Magic's chemistry, or that the new additions Boston and Cleveland made trump the Magic's. Is other teams having equally good summers a weakness? If so, that might be the Magic's.

Another perceived weakness, one into which I do not put much stock, is that the Magic's best player (Howard) is not a proven leader, and that all championship teams' best players happen to be leaders: Kobe Bryant, Kevin Garnett, Tim Duncan, and Dwyane Wade hold this distinction. Howard, perhaps due to a recent Sports Illustrated cover story, is not seen as intimidating or particularly serious on the court. But due to Nelson's leadership as co-captain--a duty he shares with Howard--the Magic aren't wanting for guidance. Van Gundy, too, sees himself as a leader.

What are the goals for this team?

The easiest question to answer: it's a championship. No one expected the Magic to be among the last two teams standing last year, especially not after falling into a 2-1 hole to the Philadelphia 76ers in the first round of the playoffs. After their surprising run to the Finals, GM Otis Smith made several aggressive maneuvers (as outlined above) and team ownership signed off to pay the luxury tax.

They did not go through all this trouble to merely win a playoff series or two this year. The obvious, unambiguous goal is to hoist the Larry O'Brien trophy at season's end.

Predicted Record: 63-19.

Putting the "Vince-Carter-vs.-Hedo-Turkoglu-in-Crunch-Time" Debate to Rest

Ben Q Rock — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 12:00:38 -0000

Like Bethlehem Shoals, I'm flabbergasted that NBA fans and analysts continue to debate whether or not the Orlando Magic improved by adding Vince Carter and losing Hedo Turkoglu. We've written on this topic several times, so I apologize in advance if there's redundancy here, but there are apparently more facts that need clarifying. The sooner we end this debate, the better.

Anyway, the Magic's decision to trade for Carter essentially indicated that they would let the free-agent-to-be Turkoglu pack his bags; as NetsDaily reported recently, the Magic stepped up their efforts to land Carter from New Jersey when Turkoglu rejected an informal contract offer over the previous weekend. Although technically the final swap the Magic made with the Nets was Rafer Alston, Tony Battie, and Courtney Lee for Ryan Anderson and Carter, it's fair to say Turkoglu left in that deal as well, as it made clear the Magic did not intend to re-sign him.

So yes, it's reasonably accurate to say that the Magic expect Carter to fill almost, but not all, of the roles Turkoglu held over the last two seasons, under coach Stan Van Gundy, where he became more of a playmaker and less of a spot-up shooter. (The most notable exception is inbounds passing, where Matt Barnes will take over for Hedo). Plenty of NBA writers, most recently ESPN.com's Chris Sheridan, have expressed their opinion that Carter cannot duplicate Turkoglu's crunch-time production. Turk came up big in big moments for Orlando in the last 2 seasons--I count two game-winning shots in the regular season, one in the postseason, the Game Of His Life (25 points, 5 boards, 12 assists, 91.6% eFG%) when the Magic eliminated the Boston Celtics in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals last season. High-profile heroics aside, readily available data show that Carter is the superior clutch performer.

Here, we're using 82games.com's highly esteemed definition of "clutch," which reads as follows:

4th quarter or overtime, less than 5 minutes left, neither team ahead by more than 5 points

To get a better idea of both players' clutch statistics, I surveyed 82games' data for the two most recent seasons; 2007/08 is available here, and 2008/09 is available here. I've presented what I believe to be the most relevant statistics in this table:

Crunch Time Per-48-minute Productivity and Shooting Percentages for Vince Carter and Hedo Turkoglu, 2007/08 and 2008/09 NBA Seasons
Player	Season	Pts	FG%	3FG%	FT%	Asts	TOs
Carter	2007/08	33.8	44.2	40.9	89	6.0	2.7
Turkoglu	"	38.2	40.2	39.4	81	4.9	3.7
Carter	2008/09	34.3	50.0	50.0	85	4.3	3.4
Turkoglu	"	26.7	35.7	20.0	88	3.6	1.4

Indeed, the statistics illustrate Carter's higher efficiency in both seasons, as he shot better from the field and from three-point range both times, and markedly so most recently. He's also the better playmaker, with significantly more assists in both years, although his turnovers more than doubled Turkoglu's last year.

What's quite jarring about these data is just how far off Turkoglu dropped last year. His three-point accuracy in crunch time dropped in half, and his overall shooting by one-eighth. And although it's not included in the table, Turk's 38.2 points-per-48-minutes of crunch time in 2007/08 is an astounding 50.4% increase over his entire per-48-minute scoring output that year. Unsurprisingly, he did not sustain that increase last season, as his per-48-minute output increase in crunch time was a less impressive 20.4%. In fairness to him, it's still an increase.

But Carter's scoring improvement, on a percentage-increase basis? 28.5% in 2007/08, and 26.6% last year, which suggests that we can reasonably expect him to improve his scoring in crunch time by roughly one-quarter. Turk's inconsistency in that metric, by contrast, makes him far less predictable, and reliable, as a crunch-time performer.

For readers who dispute 82games' definition of clutch, who believe that only playoff performance matters, and thus maintain that Turkoglu's postseason buckets trump anything Carter's done lately, we respond: fair. After all, Carter's Nets have failed to play postseason basketball in each of the last two years--coincidentally, when Turkoglu really gained national attention--and in Carter's last playoff apperance he did not play especially well: 22.3 points, 6.8 rebounds, and 5.3 assists per game we like, but 39.6% shooting from the field and 3.2 turnovers... not so much. My counter is that Carter is, barring a catastrophic injury or combination of injuries to key Magic players, assured of a playoff chance this year. And if his recent regular-season clutch ability holds up in the postseason, the Magic are inarguably better off with him than with Turkoglu.

I don't mean to sound like I'm bashing Turk here; that's not what this post is about, and I actually quite like him. It's just that he is, on the whole, a less efficient, and less reliable, crunch-time performer than Carter is. The data--just a few keystrokes away on any computer with internet access--reflect that, which is why it puzzles me that some NBA scribes are hammering the notion that Turk is superior into our heads. He played well in some nationally televised games, and played poorly in many others; through the first 3 games of the Philadelphia series he shot 23.3% from the field and averaged 11 points per game. Is all that enough to trump Carter's longer track record of higher efficiency? If some benighted NBA analysts are to be believed, the answer is "yes." The facts, however, say otherwise.