SB Nation - Kenny Thomas

Kings Lose Game of the Century, If the Century is the 1300s

Ziller — Sat, 19 Dec 2009 13:27:28 -0000

More photos » by Ann Heisenfelt - AP

You see, because in the 1300s, things basically sucked, what with the Black Death and all, so I figure there wasn't much time for basketball, so the games were bottled disaster, much like Friday's loss in Minnesota. At least with most Kings losses this season there has been entertainment value -- like the final Lord of the Rings film, you can be aggravated at the ending (a Hobbit tickle fight?! what the Frodo!) but still have enjoyed those three hours of your life. Not this game. This game was like paying $6 to see Phantom Menace in the theater: it blew, you're never getting that time back, and it actually helped ruin that which came before it (the Washington win, in our example; the New Hope trilogy in the malformed analogy). I'll never look at you the same way, George Lucas!

Just a brutal, brutal affair. In some losses, the Kings have had multiple runs at the lead -- like a half dozen, in the case of the second Spurs defeat. The Kings had negative two runs Friday night. I don't know how that happened, but it did. Tyreke Evans had his worst game in ages (despite eight assists, would have been more if the team had shot better than 43 percent from the field), Donte Greene didn't score a point in 18 minutes, Kenny Thomas didn't score a point in 20 minutes, Spencer Hawes had zero defensive rebounds in 20 minutes off the bench, the team shot 4-27 from three against a dreadful defensive club, and the team gave up 112 points in 106 possessions to the league's third worst offensive oufit. BRUTAL.

You want a bright side, beyond Omri Casspi (another brilliant scoring effort)? As this Sam Amick video attests to, Kevin Martin is shooting again ... and he's even dribbling with his left hand.

Holy talent infusion, Batman!

Preview: Kings at Wolves

Ziller — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 20:00:26 -0000

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THE OPPONENT

Remember the Timberwolves, who last Saturday fell in defeat at the boots of the Kings at ARCO. The Wolves have four victories, including one this week against Utah. Minnesota's four wins (in 26 games, whoo) have come against the Nets, the Nuggets and the Jazz twice. The Wolves have the worst point differential in the league, have the third worst shooting clip in the league, the second worst offense overall and the 24th ranked defense. The Wolves suck.

THE KEY BATTLE

Al Jefferson and Kevin Love vs. Jason Thompson and ... Andres Nocioni? No word as of press time on whether Spencer Hawes will get his starting position back. Facing a Scantron and No. 2 pencil, I would scribble the 'B' bubble, assuming 'B' is associated with 'no.' Hawes had a solid spell in relief on Wednesday, but Spencer's bad outing against Minnesota on Saturday was surely part of the eventual post-Blazers benching.

(And please do not believe Paul Westphal's spin regarding the Wizards match-up. It's been discussed insightfully by others here on StR, but seriously. He got benched. He got benched.)

There are pros and cons, to me, in benching Hawes against teams like the Wolves. First of all, one of the few strengths of Minnesota is its offensive rebounding, between Jefferson and Love. We saw Jefferson own the offensive glass early in Saturday's game. He ended up with five offensive caroms, and Love had four. Benching Hawes, no matter how disappointing he has been on the boards this season, doesn't help when Omri Casspi is the replacement. Omri is a great rebounder at his position ... which is not power forward or center. We saw Nocioni play power forward in Hawes's stead Wednesday; if Hawes sits for Omri, that'd be the case again, with Thompson marking Jefferson (and risking foul trouble) and Noc handling Love. But Noc isn't a PF-level defensive rebounder, either. You open yourself up for exploitation on the offensive glass, something we saw executed perfectly early on by Washington.

Of course, adding Omri to the Evans-Greene-Nocioni-Thompson group makes the offense wail. Casspi is a perfect match for Evans and Thompson, just perfect. So what do you do? If it were my choice, I'd either start Hawes and keep all five Kings back to help rebound (you can score on Minnesota in the halfcourt) or I'd start Kenny Thomas and Omri (the latter in place of Noc), match K-9 up against Jefferson, let Thompson take Love ... and sub in Hawes the second Jefferson sits (or as soon as Thompson picks up his second foul, whichever happens first). Ryan Hollins is a good offensive rebounder, but less of a threat to do anything with the ball and an absolute sieve on the other end.

I have a feeling we'll get Omri in the starting five with Nocioni, which means we'll get a shoot-out, which is probably best for all viewers.

BOLD PROCLAMATION

Reggie Theus will arrange for Sam Amick to be forced to sit next to Minnesota's most slovenly, smelly man.

NUMERIC PREDICTION

Kings by 6.

DETAILS

5 PM tip-off. Comcast SportsNet and KHTK 1140 AM. Just one game thread tonight, plus the post-gamer (7:45) and the recap (eventually).

Blazers Mount Comeback, Edge Kings 95-88

Ziller — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 14:02:27 -0000

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As Paul Westphal told the media and the cameras, the Kings did not play smart basketball in the fourth quarter, particularly on offense. But there's an asterisk: the Blazers threw something at the Kings that the players on the floor were unable to adjust to. Portland so wanted to stop Tyreke Evans (who was murder in sneakers all night) they pulled Joel Przybilla all the way across the lane to provide help on just about every Evans touch. The Kings tried to clear a side to allow Evans to go one-on-one against Brandon Roy or Andre Miller, but the help came anyways. Evans was unable to get the ball efficiently to the other side of the floor, and the Kings offense went blank.

The Kings ran a couple picks-and-rolls to create space, and it worked a bit. But not enough. It wasn't the only problem for the Kings, that fourth quarter offense, but it was the one most directly tied to Sacramento's defeat. Defensive rebounding was (surprise!) the problem. Portland had 12 offensive rebounds in 37 opportunities, and every last one came from a Blazer starter. You can't blame Jason Thompson (eight defensive rebounds in 40 minutes) or Evans (seven in 33 minutes). You can, however, blame Spencer Hawes (one defensive rebound in 28 minutes), who had perhaps his worst performance of the season on both ends. I don't remember one good possession on either end for Hawes. He couldn't keep LaMarcus Aldridge from his favored spots. He couldn't keep Aldridge or Joel Przybilla off the glass. He couldn't help facilitate the offense. He couldn't score. If not for Kenny Thomas's inability to make even the most clear lay-ups and Jon Brockman's shoddy free throw stroke, Hawes would have had no reason to be on the floor. Just a massive drain. I'm sorry to rip the kid, he's one of my favorites to watch when he's on. But he was off, way off, and it needs to be written.

The problem is that when players like Thompson or even Brockman are off, they still matter. On the defensive boards. On loose balls. On defense. On the offensive glass. It's just not the case right now with Hawes, and that's both a huge personal/personnel disappointment and also a gaping hole on the court. Przybilla is mostly an offensive zero (except on the glass). But he plays great defense, and boards like a beast. When Hawes is an offensive zero, he needs to be a wall to justify playing time.

Beyond that, the Kings can find more silver lining in the 10th road loss of the year. Sacramento owned most of the game. Before Evans drew the instant doubles, he did whatever he wanted. Nate McMillan told the media he thought Evans "has a little Magic in him." The Kings competed on the road against a good team without Sergio Rodriguez adding anything, with Donte Greene and Andres Nocioni playing iffy on offense, and with Hawes a disaster. It's still progress. It's not progress we long for -- a road win, .500 again -- but it's the progress we've got. It's hard to complain too much at this juncture.

Notes:

Greene's bucket with a minute left ... wow. When you see such smooth, confident moves from The Show, you can forget a lot of turnovers or quizzical drives.
The next possession, the Kings down three: Greene plays basically perfect defense on Roy, forcing him into a leaning jumper from 15 feet, in which Roy attempts to draw the foul after failing to get a step, but Greene essentially pulls the carpet out. Blazers get an offensive rebound which essentially seals the game (or at least leads to the Jerryd Bayless baseline drive which seals the game). How did Portland get that offensive rebound? Like they get most other offensive rebounds, of course! Evans, who was guarding Aldridge on the possession (seriously), got possession for the board, but didn't turn around to box out. When the shot bounced off the rim, Aldridge grabbed Evans's left arm, holding 'Reke to the ground, effectively. Aldridge released in time to grab the board himself. Mario Elie and Bryan Gates EXPLODE on the Kings bench at the no-call. I would call it a travesty of justice if a) Portland didn't do something similar on basically every missed attempt (which means the Kings need to sell it or strike pre-emptively) and b) Thompson does the same thing. You get offensive rebounds in this league by being aggressive and a bit dirty. Portland is a lot dirty. It's why they win.
On to actual travesties of justice: those two Przybilla charges drawn? PFFFFTTTT. We have this thing in the NBA called a restricted area. Dick Bavetta should look it up on Wikipedia.

Sacramento's Sucking Defensive Void: What's the Problem?

Ziller — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 21:30:13 -0000

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With eyes coated glassy from gimlets of joy here in points west, there remains one striking, sucking void in the burgeoning success of the Sacramento Kings: the defense remains absolutely awful. The world's worst a year ago, the Kings defense again ranks among the dregs of the league. The real problem for armchair analysts like me is that there is no easy answer.

The team's shooting defense sucks. The team doesn't create many turnovers. The team can't rebound regularly on the defensive end. The team fouls too much.

In every aspect of defense, the Kings are worse than par. Sacramento has stayed afloat (or exceeded expectations, more like it) based on a booming offense which has rung bells from McKinley to Kilimanjaro. (Well, it's currently 7th in the league. Without all but five games of Kevin Martin. I heard at least some decorative plates rattle.) The defense has attempted to again sink this team, like a malformed anchor of youthful blindness or community distraction. (Optimists, still here, will grasp for the former.)

Rebounding is easy to diagnose: our defensive rebounders suck. Jason Thompson has improved on that end, and in total is a fine, fine rebounder. He could do well to boost his defensive rebounding more, but he's not so much a problem as a concern. Spencer Hawes is a concern, absolutely. His defensive rebounding (21 percent last year, less than 18 percent now) is abysmal -- Mikki Moore level, in fact. This isn't blame so much as observation: Hawes has devolved as a rebounder, and he was subpar for his position and size already. Now he's atrocious. Moving on out of reach of the cyanide, Andres Nocioni has been a sink, of sorts -- his 9 percent overall rebounding rate is Salmonsesque (not good) and below the sinewy, frantic Omri Casspi (nearly 10 percent). Donte Greene has not been rebounding well, either. Kenny Thomas and Jon Brockman are champions, thank you.

Turnovers fit into the team defense conceit we'll discuss more later, and fouls split time between there (later) and this easy-to-grasp statement: Jason Thompson has really got to calm down on the fouls. Brockman and Thomas actually foul more frequently than J.T., and The Show actually isn't far behind, but as Thompson plays so many minutes (necessarily, because he is awesome) his matter most. It's not fair, but the cover of Good Housekeeping ain't free, Holmes.

Shooting defense. A riddle wrapped in prosciutto. Rancid prosciutto bartered from the Slovenian black market, in our example. (Apologies, underground meat salesmen of Celje. I mean no offense. I simply take the simplest path to WTF I can find, and today that route crossed your unfortunately, smelly bridge.) Shooting defense is really tricky to unfurl, even at the team level. On an individual basis, yes, guh, muy difficulto. But at the team level, it's still tricky.

Shooting defense, to me, can be broken off into two branches: shot distribution and actual shot defense. In other words, what locations do your opponents shoot from, and how well do they hit them?

Hoopdata.com has made serious strides in public availability of this sort of data this season. Truly fantastic, in my book, which is the one you're reading. I can give you the last page right now, if you're the type who reads that. But first,

SPOILER ALERT

The Kings' opponent shot distribution ranks 15th; that is, if opponents shot league average against the Kings in every shot zone, the Kings would have the 15th ranked shooting defense. But the Kings have the 22nd ranked shooting defense, because the Kings defense actually underperforms from average; that is, the Kings let opponents shot better than they ought to.

END SPOILER ALERT

First, shot distribution. Do opponents get lots of so-called easy shots -- near the rim, threes -- against the Kings?

Sacramento is middle-of-the-pack in the frequency of opponent attempts at the rim ... a bit surprising really. (We'll come back to interior defense in a moment.) No team gives up more non-layup/dunk shots inside the paint than the Kings, though. The Kings allow the sixth lowest rate of "midrange" 10-15 foot shots, and the 10th lowest rate of long twos. (Long twos are the worst shot in basketball, by category. More specifically, long twos by Chris Duhon are the worst shot in basketball.) The Kings give up the 7th lowest rate of threes, which is a positive.

So, essentially, Kings opponents end up taking a lot of short jumpers, compared to the league at large.

But when those opponent do get to the rim, well. Damn.

The Kings have the second-worst shot defense at the rim. There's that bad interior defense peeking out. (Out of where, well, this is a family blog, let's just move on.) This can potentially be attributed to having the league's fourth-worst block rate, and also, anecdotally, not being terribly good in transition.

Moving out, the Kings actually defend short jumpers (5-10 feet) really well, like, "third best in the league" well. From 10-15 feet, Kings opponents don't hit too much, with Sacramento having the league's eighth best shot defense from there. The Kings rank 27th in shot defense from 16-23 feet (ick), but know that 16-23 foot jump shot shooting percentages tend to vacillate wildly. (Proof: Tyreke Evans is shooting 48 percent from there this year. If that lasts, I'll eat Truck Robinson's sweatband.)

The Kings don't give up a ton of three-point attempts, but they do give up a ton of makes, with the 9th-worst shot defense from beyond the arc. Opponents shot 36.5 percent from three against Sacramento, which is the equivalent of shooting 54.7 percent from two. It's not nearly as bad as last year (where opponents actually shot better than 40 percent from downtown, if you can believe it). But it's still not good.

So there you have it. The Kings have an average opponent shot distribution, but let them make way too many attempts near the rim and from behind the arc.

Now, the big question ... whoooooooo? I can't pretend to know that answer, though I will put on the record that 82games.com reports that opponent guards and centers haven't shot too terribly well against the Kings this season, but forwards have. Small forward has been the most sour defensive spot, by this source. Andres Nocioni and Omri Casspi account for 67 percent of the team's minutes at the position. It's hard to figure this with any certainty (without more data, like game-by-game, possession-by-possession data), especially considering that Paul Westphal uses such varied line-ups and Jim Eyen has installed a couple of zone schemes the team turns to often enough. It's really impossible to lay any blame on the shooting defense on any one, two or three players given the info I have. I think we can recuse the center (Hawes, who has played 56 percent of the team's center minutes, and against whom centers are shooting far worse than they have against other Kings with minutes at the position, namely Thompson), but no one else at this point. (Guard penetration affects shooting percentages across the board -- we can't blame Nocioni if a guard gets past Evans or Udrih and forces rotations which leave Nocioni's man with airspace.)

I have thrice begun a paragraph in which I blame a player thoughtfully given the information I have, but ... nope. Wouldn't do it. I can't say for sure, and I'd rather be silent than wrong.

Suns Drop Kings 115-107

Ziller — Sun, 06 Dec 2009 15:03:43 -0000

More photos » by AARON J. LATHAM - AP

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Heading in, you knew the Kings would be able to get some offensive rebounds against a poor defensive rebounding team like Phoenix, especially considering how excellent Jason Thompson and Jon Brockman have been on the offensive boards. Well, Thompson had a bad night on the glass and Brockman didn't play. So it was up to Kenny Thomas to work the Suns over and ... well, he succeeded.

Thomas had eight offensive rebounds in less than 28 minutes. Spencer Hawes added three, and Tyreke Evans and Omri Casspi each added two. Overall, the Kings did their job on that end, taking a brilliant 41 percent of offensive rebound opportunities.

The problem was the other end, where the Suns did nearly the same.

Phoenix had 17 offensive rebounds in 47 opportunities (36 percent), led by Amar'e Stoudemire, who grabbed nine. The Kings just couldn't get defensive boards in traffic. Thomas had 10 (for 18 rebounds total), but Thompson and Hawes had only five between them in 55 minutes. Each was frustrated -- J.T. because of foul trouble, Hawes because of his bunnies wouldn't go home -- but really, this frontcourt must rebound better on the defensive end for the Kings' strengths to show up in the won-loss ledger.

Evans was brilliant, although his second half shot selection wasn't terribly strong. It followed in the box score: 12 points on six shot attempts in the first half, nine points on 12 shot attempts (10 FGAs, 4 FTAs) in the second. As we've seen in recent games, Phoenix adjusted its defense to keep Evans out of the paint. On one possession, Evans drove from the left wing; by the time he'd dribbled once, three Suns closed in on him. He still went to the rim and missed a fairly wild lay-up. It's as those moments you wish he'd look to pass immediately upon seeing the triple-team come.

That said, it's pretty damn difficult to quibble with 21 points on .563 True Shooting, six rebounds, seven assists, two steals and zero turnovers. Evans didn't lose this game, and in fact in the first half he kept the team in the dogfight.

Regarding Hawes in the paint: this performance (4-14, with most of those attempts coming from within five feet) was a blip, not the norm. On the season, Hawes is shooting 65 percent on shots at the rim, which is up from 62 percent last season and 57 percent as a rookie. Thompson, by comparison, iis at 57 percent, and was at 62 percent last year. Saturday's game hasn't been added in yet, so figure Hawes to droop a bit, and yes you would like to see another dunk or two so near the rim, but hey, Hawes is fine. Hell, Stoudemire is only 62 percent at the rim this season. Hawes is fine.

(As long as he improves his defensive rebounding.)

See Bright Side of the Sun's recap.

UPDATE: It's been a few hours since I watched the game, but I can't believe I forgot to mention the insane number of late whistles. Bad calls are infuriating. But the ref crew looked like they calling fouls based on whether shots went in or not (if they didn't, blow the whistle; if the shots fell, no call). If that's really what was going on, and the refs weren't just slow with the whistle for other reasons (of which I cannot imagine) ... then this was some unconscionable officiating. Calls were repeatedly made well after rebounds were secured. Constantly. All game long.

Kings Hold Off Nets 109-96

Ziller — Sat, 28 Nov 2009 14:38:10 -0000

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When Lawrence Frank went to the Hack-a-Jew strategy, intentionally putting Omri Casspi on the free throw line late in the fourth quarter with the winless Nets down by three possessions, I knew this game had ended.

It was spooky until then, with New Jersey quickly erasing Sacramento's 17-point halftime lead to get the game within two possessions in the third quarter. The Nets hung around, allowing the Kings a few spurts but always answering. It was just as nerve-wracking as that Parcheesi game I mentioned Friday. Basketball is a crazy game (cliche!), and when you get into a close game, it doesn't matter what your record is. Anything can happen.

But Frank, still coaching his ass off, decided to put the game in Casspi's hands. Omri has shot three-pointers about as well as free throws. But when Frank put him on the line, Casspi nailed 3-4 and ended that strategy quickly. And, oddly, though Omri has had his struggles from the stripe, I had a great feeling about each of those shots. There's something about Omri, some burgeoning swagger that leaks out in grimaces and chest pounds, but still somehow feels like it's being kept in check by an invisible lid. All this spirit we see from Casspi, and it's just the surface. This well runs deep.

The first quarter was a rather brilliant span of basketball for Sacramento, resulting in a 33-20 lead. The Kings defended well, holding N.J. to those 20 points over 25 possessions. A key was keeping the Nets off the offensive boards -- the Kings gave up two N.J. offensive rebounds in 14 opportunities in the first. That was the biggest difference between the first and the third, where New Jersey tallied nine offensive rebounds in 17 opportunities -- just a ridiculous number. One other second half problem was that the Kings didn't grab a single offensive rebound in the third or fourth quarters, a shocking finish given how good the Kings have been on the offensive glass this season. (Jason Thompson didn't have a single offensive rebound all game. Only Spencer Hawes -- with two -- had more than one among all Kings. Josh Boone had five, Chris Douglas-Roberts had three.)

Speaking of Douglas-Roberts: he's the reason Donte Greene received only six minutes in the second half. Greene didn't play poorly -- he's just not quick enough to guard two-guards like CD-R, and that seemed like a real problem with this particular starting line-up once Devin Harris warmed up his engine. (Harris was awful in the first half, great in the third, OK in the fourth.) Tyreke Evans (another great game, with 21 points on 18 shooting possessions, and eight rebounds) had trouble staying in front of the lightning quick Harris on a few consecutive possessions, and with Lopez demanding attention in the paint, CD-R was able to go one-on-one with The Show, and CD-R won. That resulted in a second half full of two- and three-PG line-ups. Thankfully, both Beno Udrih (21 on 12) and Sergio Rodriguez (six points, three assists, one turnover) played well. In the paint, Kenny Thomas eventually got his shot (after Sean May stunk up the joint in relief of the sore Hawes) at Lopez, and K-9 did fantastic work.

None of that good work matters, of course, if Omri misses a couple free throws to validate Frank's strategy. But the kid has swag, and it showed.

The Prospect of, Um, Samuel Dalembert

Ziller — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 14:06:35 -0000

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Apparently, the Kings are highly interested in a defensive-minded center. Marc Stein of ESPN reports on TrueHoop that the Kings are in exploratory discussions with Philadelphia and Boston in a deal that would bring centre (boom!) Samuel Dalembert to Sacramento with Kenny Thomas and Andres Nocioni departing. Essentially, it brings in Dalembert, whose defense is well-reputed but whose offense and sometimes attitude is disastrous, for two seasons while cutting some salary off this season's ledger and freeing the team from Nocioni's longer contract. Here are the full contract details for the only three players who matter to Sacramento. (Boston, who would receive Nocioni, would also send a couple of dudes to Philly.) As always with matters of salary, thanks be to ShamSports (who you can also follow for pithy remarks, obscure transaction news and feuds with Sam Amick [no really!] on Twitter: @ShamSports).

Player	'09-10	'10-11	'11-12	'12-13
Dalembert	$12M	$12.9M	--	--
Nocioni	$7.5M	$6.9M	$6.7M	$7.5M*
Thomas	$8.8M	--	--	--

The Kings would save a solid $4 million this season, give or take as roughly 10 percent of the season's salary has already been paid out. Next season, the Kings would have $46 million in payroll on the books instead of $40 million, and would be out of the running for a major free agent chase, barring something unexpected with the salary cap. The Kings would gain $6.7 million in space in 2011-12 (putting the team at $34 million in commitments without accounting for Spencer Hawes's extension) as the then-31 Nocioni would no longer be on the books. Nocioni's 2012-13 salary is a team option, which is unlikely to be picked up by any team, unless Bueno Aires grabs an expansion club and Dorothy Nocioni is the owner. So basically, the Kings would save roughly $4 million this season, spend an extra $6 million next season and save $6.7 million in '11-12. A net savings of roughly $4.5 million over three seasons.

That's the money situation. What about the talent?

As we've discussed, Thomas is a bit of gravy right now. He's playing well on defense and on the boards, but he's really just an expiring contract. Adding another pivot would guarantee that. Heck, if Jon Brockman were an inch taller, or Sean May were 10 pounds lighter, Thomas would never get off the bench. Losing Thomas, while sad, because man we have been through a lot with that guy!, would not matter much to the product on the court. Just the product in my chest.

Nocioni has been a good contributor for the Kings, maybe the fourth best offensive weapon at any time. He's also, as we were reminded frequently during the Thunder-Kings game, an active defender, though he's less brilliant against lesser talents, where he loses concentration and chases the ball. Right now, he's the team's most easily swingable big small forward (a minor victory) and one of the team's more reliable shooters (with Omri Casspi, Beno Udrih and a healthy Kevin Martin ... and someday a healthy Francisco Garcia). You assume Ime Udoka would take over Nocioni's spot, at least temporarily, as the suggested three-guard line-up looms with Martin's expected return around the New Year. If it's not Udoka, Paul Westphal can choose between Casspi (the better scorer and more energetic defender) or Donte Greene (the ultra-athletic, hyper-celebratory choice).

But that's all temporary. Long-term, the Kings have plenty of options at the position. Udoka is the team's best defender without question, and he can hit an open shot (which is arguably all you want from Nocioni, though he tends to create in a pinch, which we'd miss until Martin returns or Spencer Hawes regains confidence). Casspi is a bright star -- not star as in NBA Star, but star as in shining light which will always rise with the moon and never disappear until it burns out in a wonderful supernova, which won't happen for millions of years. Greene, of course, is the secret lock of hair in the shoebox, the everlasting dream of tomorrow. Garcia might be a lost cause this season (he'll have about 25-30 games once he returns, and he'll need to refind his stroke on that shooting hand), but he's signed up for the long haul and can do a lot of what Nocioni can do, except for the rebounding. He is, basically, Nocioni. Which makes it weird that we have two Nocionis. But it had to happen -- we couldn't go from two Salmonses (John Salmons and Garcia) to zero Salmonses without making it up somewhere else. (Can we try two Martins or two Thompsons next time? Thanks.)

Now, to the Haitian Conflagration. Interestingly enough, I wondered about Dalembert last trade deadline.

[Tyson] Chandler's reputation is much stronger than that of Dalembert, though I can't really understand why. The only real, measurable advantages for Chandler are that he is 17 months younger, that he refuses to shoot if he can't dunk (hence the higher FG%) and he doesn't put the ball on the floor ever.

Dalembert is an equal or slightly better rebounder, a far better shot-blocker, is slightly cheaper in salary and MUCH cheaper in terms of acquisition costs.

(Quoting myself once again! The Ego is back, baby! Step off, Id.) Chandler is no longer a comparison, as he is spoken for. But look at Dalembert on his own merits: a career defensive rebounding percentage of 24.5 percent, a career block rate of 5.8 percent (that is, when on the court he blocks 5.8 percent of all opponent field goal attempts), a career individual Defensive Rating of 101.5, which happens to rank 88th in the NBA ... all time. He has played every game in each of the past three seasons. He is 75th in NBA history in total blocks, despite averaging only 26 minutes per game for his career (due to fouls and a lack of offensive ability). He was the third best rebounder in the league last season: 6th on the offensive glass (better than J.T.), third on the defensive glass (behind Troy Murphy and Dwight Howard), third overall (behind Howard and Kevin Love). He has finished top seven in the league in block rate in five of his eight NBA seasons, and top nine in rebound rate three times.

For a 7-footer, his career field goal percentage of 52.3 percent might be a bit low. But his True Shooting percentage (that's the best measure of scoring efficiency) is above league average, because unlike most defensive specialist centers he can hit free throws (better than 70 percent in each of the past four seasons and at 78 percent this year). His turnover rate is atrocious, which means he needs to stop handling the ball. I think a coach like Paul Westphal -- who convinced D.G. to stop taking hurried off-balance threes -- could impart that knowledge effectively. If not, your third big (who might start in front of Hawes -- that'd be a pretty big question) would have terrible hands. Not the worst realization, given how many top-level bigs have terrible hands, and given how good the other two prominent Kings bigs' hands are. (No Hamburglar.)

You know, if too many deals which I support come up, I'm going to be found out as an antsy Nancy who is just rooting for a trade. I'm not. But I understand the importance of interior defense -- look at much Hawes, who improved from dreadful to passable on defense, has helped! Imagine inserting a real, live, intimidating defender to the back line. The Kings, no matter how much they have surprised, are still a bad defensive team. Dalembert would help, this year and next. Given that the financial commitment is relatively short, and the price relatively small (no knock on Nocioni -- again, he's a bit superfluous here), it's something any team in Sacramento's position should consider. I trust that provided Boston is on board (Philadelphia certainly must be -- that franchise needs cap space like Jim Eyen needs a personal shopper), the Kings will consider this deal extensively. It's an intriguing one.

UPDATE: I completely neglected J.R. Giddens in this. Take roughly $1 million off this season's savings, and add a relatively old (24) Greene-level two-guard prospect. Giddens played 26 games for Kings assistant Bryan Gates's Utah Flash last season, and turned out a non-elite but good 19.1 PER. On the surface, I can tell he shot twos wonderfully and rebounded well for a 6-5 fella.

The Prospect of Emeka Okafor

Ziller — Sat, 14 Nov 2009 22:06:39 -0000

by Elise Amendola - AP

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Sam Amick of The Bee reports the Kings are discussing an Emeka Okafor-Kenny Thomas trade with the Hornets. Thomas's contract, as we all know, expires this summer. Okafor's deal runs through 2014. Here's a full salary breakdown, thanks to ShamSports.com.

Player	'09-10	'10-11	'11-12	'12-13	'13-14
Thomas	$8.7M	--	--	--	--
Okafor	$10.8M	$11.8M	$12.8M	$13.8M	$14.8M*

That 2013-14 season has an early termination option for Okafor. Clearly, in losing Thomas the Kings would only be losing a spot bench forward and the opportunity cost of using his expiring contract in another trade. There are very few big names expected to be available for expiring contracts this trade deadline -- Carlos Boozer, Stephen Jackson, Elton Brand and perhaps Monta Ellis lead that class. (Despite what you may have heard, Toronto ain't trading Chris Bosh for anything less than a couple of Sacramento's top assets -- think Kevin Martin and Jason Thompson, or something like that. Pipe. Dream.)

The real question here is whether Okafor is worth the cost of his own salary for the Kings. That's also an opportunity cost issue: if the Kings take on Okafor without losing one of its longer contracts, the free agency periods of 2010, 2011 and possibly 2012 are essentially wiped out. And that really depends on what you think the Kings could get in free agency right now.

I think free agency is a big risk. The best player the Sacramento Kings have ever acquired as a free agent (not including any extensions/re-signings) is Vlade Divac. At the time, the team overpaid for Vlade -- he was making All-Star level money despite a reputation as an average starting center with a few special skills. No one (but Geoff Petrie, perhaps) knew how well Divac would mesh with Chris Webber and friends.

Who is No. 2 behind Divac? Bobby Jackson, who at the time of his signing was a three-year vet with a career 8 ppg average? Shareef Abdur-Rahim? John Salmons? The Kings, even when great, have never signed high-level free agents. This is not particularly Sacramento-specific, either: few great players move in unrestricted free agency. This coming summer is a bit of an anomaly that players are even getting to free agency ... and it's still unlikely many of the big names will move.

So I'm not sure the Kings lose much by way of renouncing a big free agency splash for 2-3 years. As I said, you limit your trade deadline opportunities by sending away Thomas's contract ... but there was unlikely to be much out there better than Okafor (depending on your feelings about how Boozer would mesh here, or whether the Suns will careen and make Amar'e Stoudemire available again). Despite being traded recently, Okafor wouldn't be an easily movable contract for a while -- any trade including him is a necessarily big trade, and those are harder to pull off. So he becomes your "hardest to trade" asset, eclipsing Beno Udrih and Andres Nocioni. Further augmentation to the roster would fall to trades involving the team's bevy of non-stars/non-youths, trades involving the prospects, trades involving draft picks, mid-level or sub mid-level free agent signings and the draft. You'd have to be fairly comfortable that the current team (with Okafor and the 2010 draft pick and some internal growth) would be able to be a playoff team within a year or two to justify the trade.

And I think that's fair. When Kevin Martin is healthy, the Kings have clearly above average players at point guard (Tyreke Evans), shooting guard (Martin) and power forward (Jason Thompson). The team has one serviceable starter (as of today) at small forward (Nocioni) and center (Spencer Hawes). You'd hope Hawes will be more than that any day now, but let's not be deluded. He's not there yet. He's better than some starting centers out there, but not too many. He's not clearly above average today ... many would argue he's not average today.

Adding Okafor would give you an above average player at a fourth position. It'd also give the starting line-up its first elite defensive player (Evans isn't there) and it would likely cinch the Kings as an elite rebounding team. Okafor, while less versatile than Hawes, also happens to be a serviceable offensive weapon: he's smart with the ball, and has a career field goal percentage better than 50 percent. If he hurts the offense, it's in his lack of ability to stretch the defense. Given that Hawes has shot poorly this year but the Kings offense has been on fire (thanks to Martin, then Evans, Thompson and Udrih), I'm not sure how much of a concern that is.

The only real question which remains is what this means for Hawes. He can negotiate a contract extension this summer. As of today, it is quite easy to see that he and the Kings will be far apart on his value. He's the first prominent Kings kid in the post-Webber era that I think could get to restricted free agency. (Extending Kevin Martin early was a no-brainer, and Francisco Garcia got a fairly generous deal, which wasn't difficult to anticipate.) Either way, in the interim, Hawes is a good third big. A pissed-off Hawes could be a great third big. It's not terribly easy to explain, but pinning Hawes behind a middling, old center during an awful season felt a whole lot worse than pinning him behind an above average center in his prime during a surprisingly competitve season seems.

All this ignores a few other points that make the rumor itself a positive. I mean, are we actually talking about the Kings considering an expensive move?! A move that implies the franchise thinks they are fairly close to contending for a playoff spot? That's a huge step from where we were even three weeks ago. If the deal doesn't happen, this is still a blast of excitement in mid-November, and there's no discounting that after the last couple seasons.

Another Way to Live: Kings Beat Rockets 109-100

Ziller — Sat, 14 Nov 2009 16:00:55 -0000

by Rich Pedroncelli - AP

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In his post-game comments, Houston coach Rick Adelman blamed a lack of first half defense for the Rockets loss. Obviously, he's right: the Sacramento offense hummed through the first half, especially in the early second quarter.

But a big factor was also the Kings defense -- or Houston offense, depending on how you look at it -- as Sacramento held the Rockets to 37.5 percent shooting in the second quarter, and 31 percent shooting in the fourth.

For the full game, the Kings were able to finish with an above average offense (109 points in 96 possessions, for a 113 offensive rating) and an above average defense (104 defensive rating). Against a good team likely to make the playoffs. Despite a bad performance from the starter with the biggest advantage on paper (Spencer Hawes) and no real stand-out bench scoring efforts (though Ime Udoka had a quiet 10). It was about the least fluky performance imaginable.

Even if the most important shots were an Andres Nocioni leaning shot clock beater from 21 feet, a Tyreke Evans stepback 22-footer, and a Tyreke Evans shot clock beating bank shot from 22 feet.

As expected, Jason Thompson attacked the offensive glass. He did most of his damage early: seven of his nine offensive rebounds came in the first half. But that sort of damage is extensive: JT had as many offensive boards as the entire Houston roster, which is not just high praise for Shock, but for Spencer Hawes (seven defensive rebounds, nine overall in 27 minutes), Evans (six defensive boards), Kenny Thomas (six defensive boards in 19 minutes) and Nocioni (six defensive boards in 27 minutes). The Kings did excellent work keeping the Rockets -- a top-10 offensive rebounding team -- off the glass. It's really an amazing turn of events.

The shooting surplus -- the Kings shot an effective field goal percentage of .531, but are at .488 on the season -- isn't sustainable. The Rockets shot well below their season average, despite quite a few open looks from deep late in the game. I thought Beno Udrih played solid defense for Beno Udrih; at the same time, Aaron Brooks went 4-of-13 because he missed some fairly clean looks, not because of the Kings defense. Give credit to Hawes (who despite an overall miserable game rotated well in help defense), Udoka (a ridiculously sound ball hawk) and Thomas (never caught out of position on defense) for keeping the Rockets from piling on lay-ups ... but don't expect that to happen every night.

I'm pretty amazed at how balanced the offense has been without Kevin Martin. That's not a commentary on Martin -- if you're Kevin Martin, you should be taking 30 shots a game -- but more on Evans, who hasn't taken over the offense to the degree some young stars (think O.J. Mayo, Russell Westbrook) would. You sense some occasional discomfort between Evans and Udrih -- where one has the ball in the offense and the other really calls for it despite not being in scoring position -- but it hasn't affected the game to this point. Where the Martin absence has affected the offense most is in getting lots of shots for Thompson and the small forward, now Nocioni, who surely should be shooting the ball more frequently than Desmond Mason did. Thompson ended up with 20 shooting possessions (15 FGAs, 10 FTAs) against Houston, and Evans had 18, Udrih had 15, Nocioni had 14 and Hawes had 12. Compare that with Houston's so-called five-man symphony, which saw Ariza with 23 shooting possessions, Scola with 18, Brooks with 14 and Battier with 12. The Kings, who have a clear Alpha right now, were more balanced than the Team of Balance. Pretty impressive self-control by said Alpha. Solid judgment.

Udoka is just about perfect for this team. You wish he had a touch more skill handling the ball, but you could say that about every defensive specialist in the team (Battier included). To have a player that strong able to play shooting guard off the bench ... it's something different than Dahntay Jones gave Denver last season, but similar. It's a boon. Udoka's acquisition is looking brilliant right about now.

5-4. One game over .500. Seventh in the West, a solid third in the Pacific (ahead of those resurgent Clippers). It's the stuff of dreams. Dreams only Kings fans could have, I grant you. But dreams nonetheless.

Crazy Thoughts About Coaches

Exhibit G — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 02:14:27 -0000

More photos » by Rich Pedroncelli - AP

"Wait, Exhibit G said that? He's crazy. Don't listen to bananas." (AP Photo/Rich Pedroncelli, File)

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The recent meteoric rise of the Kings to a record of 4-4 got me thinking. In lietothegirls' entertaining post, pookeyguru made a comment about how there is no reason to believe that Paul Westphal has gotten through to the team this quickly. My first thought was that pookey's statement was probably accurate. Luckily for you, the reader, I have never allowed a reasonable idea prevent me from exploring a tangent in the complete opposite direction.

What follows is an unscientific exploration of ideas that cannot be proven true or false, only argued endlessly about. I figure a few of us might be nostalgic for these types of arguments now that the offseason is over.

Pookey's comment is that there is no reason to believe that Westphal has already gotten through to this team. On the surface, this makes sense. Westphal was hired June 10th, just over 5 months ago. He was able to work with some of the younger members of the roster over the summer, and has only been working with the full roster for a month or two. Hell, he's still trying to figure out what the starting line-up looks like, and has already given up on the Desmond Mason expiriment.

Pookey is right, there is no reason to believe that the team has had a chance to fully adapt to Westphal and his system. Not yet. No way.

And yet the team just won three straight games. Without Francisco Garcia. Without Kevin Martin.

Obviously the players have made strides since last season, and the additions of Tyreke Evans and Omri Casspi have helped the team considerably.

Nonetheless, it defies explanation. Until now. I present to you my random coaching theory, which includes giving credit to Eric Musselman, Reggie Theus, and Kenny Natt. Before you throw your computer out a window, hear me out. I promise I'm not giving them credit in the traditional sense of the word.

This roster has been devastated by inconsistency. Rick Adelman was the last reputable coach of this team, and that roster bears little resemblance to the current team. Martin spent two seasons under Adelman, Garcia one, and Kenny Thomas was here too but he doesn't really count.

Aside from that, this roster has been "coached" by Muss, Theus, and Kenny Natting Natt. During the last three seasons, we often lamented that there was talent on this roster, and yet the wins could not be found.

My theory is simple. My theory is that this team finally has a bonafide NBA coach, and we're seeing the difference. This team had more talent than a 17-win team. The team may not have had time to fully adjust to the system, but even something as basic as a knowledgeable coach can make this kind of a difference.

So how do Muss, Theus and Natt get any credit from this? Well, I think the coaching carousel broke down existing habits. If a coach takes over for another experienced coach, he needs to get the players to buy into his system, and to move away from the habits of the previous system. This takes time. But as anyone who watched the Kings over the past three seasons knows, the Kings haven't had a system! They're a blank canvas. They're a block of unsculpted clay. They were ready for a system. So even if the new system isn't completely in place, there's something.

We'll see over the course of the rest of the season if I'm right. I hope I am, but I don't know for sure. This is just an idea.

Even if I'm wrong, I'll still enjoy the fact that right now we're .500, and that the team has played well enough for me to even consider such a theory.