SB Nation - Fred Jones

Tip-In: Toronto Raptors Post Game Report - A Reoccurring Theme

RaptorsHQ - Franchise — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 13:44:48 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

All Triano could do was gaze in horror at the scoreboard in the fourth quarter of last night's affair.

Toronto came out flat last night against the Utah Jazz and as Franchise notes in his recap, he's seen this movie a few times too many already this season...

8 and 4.

Should that be the Toronto Raptors' record right now?

With last night's 104 to 91 loss to the Utah Jazz, Toronto fell to 5 and 7 this young season, however as a fan, it's hard not to look back at a number of games already and say "what if?"

For instance, shouldn't the loss to Memphis been avoidable?

What about the letdown against an under-manned Spurs team?

And maybe the Phoenix loss was one you'd place in the "anyone's game" column and therefore not a "shouldahadit," but last night's loss to the Jazz was one in my books that definitely should not have ended with the L.

For those who missed it, Toronto again took nearly an entire first half to get into game-mode, and then even though they managed to nearly pull even with Utah after being down by as many as 18, they ran out of gas in the fourth quarter.

However I don't think you can hang this one simply on "running out of gas," or "being tired on a back-to-back, and the final game of a Western conference road swing." Pure and simple, players aren't playing up to par on offense, and this team still is borderline atrocious defensively. Last night the Dinos had no answer for the small-ball back-court of Deron Williams and rookie Eric Maynor and while these two caused havoc for Toronto defensively, at the other end, the Raps didn't exactly do themselves any favours in terms of their own shot selection and strategy.

No need for panic, I was after all expecting a 5 and 13 start, but we're 12 games in, and it's time for some call-outs and early observations.

1) The Jarrett Jack signing isn't looking so hot.

Here are the facts. Jack is shooting 36 per cent from the field so far this season, 32 per cent from long-range, averaging less than 7 points, and most telling, went into last night's game with an almost even assist to turnover ratio.

I'm pretty sure that's not what fans or management expected when they invested their mid-level exception in him this past summer.

So, as one poster put it last night in our live game-chat, "is Jack the new Fred Jones?"

It's only 12 games in so again, I'm not ready to jump ship yet, but it's certainly a concern. Outside of his statistical follies, he just hasn't looked like the aggressive defender I expected, nor has he attacked the rim with even the same zeal as he did in pre-season.

And worst of all in my books? His ball-handling and decision making. I threw this out there during the game-blog last night and I will again; it scares me to say this but I felt more comfortable with Roko Ukic handling the ball last year than I do with Jack.

2) Bosh needs more help.

Bosh is putting up MVP-type numbers so far this season. Last night he dropped 32 points and 17 rebounds on the Jazz, but didn't get much help outside of Marco Belinelli in terms of offence.

While Hedo Turkoglu and Andrea Bargnani at times have given him a boost on O, both of them, along with Jose Calderon have hardly been consistent. If this team is going to struggle as much as it has on D, then it needs a full spread of offense each and every night. This is particularly true if the team wants to keep trotting out DeMar DeRozan as a starter. I like that they're trying to ensure minutes for his development, but he's really not a factor the majority of the time on O. This is backed up by 82games.com which lists Toronto's best starting line-up in terms of percentage of time on the court ahead on the scoreboard (80%) as the Calderon-Belinelli-Turkoglu-Bosh-Bargs combination.

TSN.ca's Tim Chisholm noted this on Twitter last night and I completely agree; if this team wants to keep Bosh around, the players BC has brought in or held onto as starters need to start playing like ones each and every night.

3) The defense needs to improve.

I don't think anyone expected this club to be a lock-down type. However this is getting a bit ridiculous. Toronto now is allowing opponents on average to score almost 108 points per game this season, and is last in the league in terms of defensive efficiency. They're actually last by a good shot too, a full 3 points per game worse than both Memphis and Golden State.

Yes the Dinos rank atop the league in offensive efficiency, but considering their record, it speaks volumes as to how woeful their defense is.

4) Shot selection and offensive strategy need work.

Additionally, the team's offense is still far too reliant on hitting jump shots and 3-pointers. When things go cold, the club isn't attacking the rim, and of course defensively they aren't able to keep things close. This means that quarters like last night's fourth occur, something that's extremely frustrating to watch as a fan. No one goes to the basket yet the jump shots keep going up, and without a solid defensive scheme, the other team takes advantage and blows the game wide open.

It happened against Denver the previous night. It happened early against the Clippers, and Bulls, late against the Spurs, and for stretches against the Suns and Pistons. Last night the Dinos were 5 for 19 in the fourth and if you look back at the type of shots taken, you'll see that Toronto just kept jacking them up, attempting only four foul shots.

I understand that this team's strength is in shooting the J, but if they're not going down, TO desperately needs a plan B.

5) Where would this team be without Amir Johnson and Marco Belinelli?

I cringe to think of what would have happened had the Raps' front office not figured out that sign-and-trade option enabling them to grab Hedo AND the likes of Antoine Wright, Amir Johnson, Marco Belinelli and Sonny Weems.

Remember, BC wanted to sign Hedo outright regardless!

Johnson and Belinelli in particular have been huge for this club so far with Belinelli playing a mini-Ben Gordon role and Johnson giving Toronto a much-needed boost of defense, rebounding and shot-blocking off the pine. Wright has also been a nice piece and even Sonny Weems has looked good in limited minutes. The bench is making up for some of the starters' flaws at the moment and as mentioned earlier, this needs to be corrected.

After this weekend's matches against Miami and Orlando at home, the schedule eases up a bit so we may get a more true indication of this team's abilities during that time. The club still is a long way from gelling, especially at the defensive end of the court, but there have been some positives to take from most games.

The team desperately needs to build on those over the next while to avoid falling too far behind in the standings so early in the season.

Breaking Down the Udoka Invitation

Dave — Sun, 27 Sep 2009 06:20:05 -0000

More photos » by Layne Murdoch - NBAE/Getty Images

Blazer fans were abuzz about the possibilities of getting one of the guys in this photo this summer. Which name ended up in Kevin Pritchard's briefcase? (Photo by Layne Murdoch/NBAE via Getty Images)

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The mailbox is full of questions regarding the Ime Udoka signing and its significance. The responses range from mystified to excited to concerned. So let's clear it up and break it down.

First of all, this is a training camp invite. The contract is non-guaranteed, meaning the Blazers and Ime can part ways at any time the team chooses. Technically it's not different than any of the other invitations the Blazers have issued. Kevin Pritchard will be visiting a few guys between now and mid-October to let them know he appreciates them, respects them, and could they please clean out their locker now. Ime may well be among those.

Second of all, this is a competition for what ends up being the 15^th roster spot and no higher than the 13^th spot in the rotation. Only 12 guys suit up on a given night. You're not exactly looking for a franchise-altering move here. And this isn't one. Ime averaged a respectable 15.4 minutes per game in 67 games for the Spurs last year but his production slipped significantly from his prior seasons. His shooting, free throw shooting, and most importantly three-point shooting percentages tanked. ~~His defensive rating went down as soon as he left Portland.~~ (Edit: Never mind that. I was BRILLIANTLY going by the wrong data. Aplogies to you and Ime. --Dave) Basically he played half the minutes you remember from his tenure with the Blazers and didn't play them nearly as well. He's wading onto a roster stocked with players at his position, meaning he either really, really loves his hometown and is willing to risk an opportunity to stay in the league and any salary raise he could get playing more minutes elsewhere for a long-shot chance here OR he didn't get any decent offers. This should color expectations somewhat. He really is in the lower roster now if he makes the team and his chances of rising above that are slim.

I can already hear the choruses of, "That's what people said LAST time he signed with the Blazers!!!" so let me cut you off at the pass. This 2009-10 Blazer team is far different than the 2006-07 team that Ime contributed so much to. Outlaw and Webster were younger and even less tempered than they are now. Aldridge and Roy were rookies. The old-timers on the team were Jamaal Magloire, Raef LaFrentz, Juan Dixon, Fred Jones and Dan Dickau and the main guy was Zach Randolph. Udoka played the 4^th most minutes of anybody on the team that year because there existed both opportunity and desperate need for his steadiness, his defense, and his three-point shooting. Nobody was solidly in front of him at small forward. Nobody in the starting lineup or really anywhere in the upper rotation knew how to sell out on defense or how to play hard while being a contributory player instead of a main focus. Half the team was too young and the other half just didn't sport that kind of player. The differences between the names listed above and a mature Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge, Andre Miller and Steve Blake, Nicolas Batum and Rudy Fernandez should be obvious.

Ime is like that really nice pizza you had as a kid. (Mine was the now-defunct Manhattan's Pizza...one in the Hollywood District and one up on Palatine Hill as I recall.) It was delicious and you loved it for good reason. But then you moved to Chicago or New York and started sampling pizza and while none of them held the place in your heart that the childhood favorite did, slowly you got attuned to a different style and quality. Then you return home and you find that while your childhood pizza is still good, maybe your memory or experience gave it a fonder spot than it strictly merited. You loved it as much for what it did for you and meant to you as its inherent quality. The latter made it decent, the former made it special. You still like it, but you wouldn't replace any of your new favorite pizzas with it.

So what does this training camp invitation mean? There are three possibilities. After chewing the fat with some people who usually know what they're talking about I'm going to list them in order from least likely to most.

There's a small, small chance this really is a significant event heralding the next Blazer move which is to trade away a small forward or two. Perhaps Ime did have significant offers elsewhere but somebody telegraphed to him (or he cleverly intuited) that the Blazer offer was the one to take. In this case Ime becomes a lower rotation player and the move makes wonderful, magical, and exciting sense.

There's a somewhat larger chance, but still not huge, that the Blazers don't have complete faith in Martell Webster's foot yet. In that case the choices at backup small forward range from Outlaw to Fernandez to Roy, none of whom are completely suited for the job. Ime would be an acceptable insurance policy in that instance, though one wonders what he gives you (besides experience) that Batum doesn't.

The overwhelmingly likely explanation is that this is just what it appears to be. Ime worked out in Portland this summer. He has positive history with people in this organization. He didn't get any good offers to go elsewhere. There's no harm in the Blazers bringing him into training camp under those circumstances nor is there harm in him accepting. This is the right percentage move for both parties. Udoka probably doesn't make the team but he might attract notice elsewhere. If he does make the team he's waiting for an injury or a trade to play.

We'll have to see how it works out. I have as much fondness for Udoka as the next guy and I'd not be sad to see him make the squad. He's another one of those players that you'd never regret having on your team. But I'm not expecting miraculous, or even steady, contributions even if that happens.

--Dave (blazersub@yahoo.com)

IC Cold Links: Pacers GM Says No Official Timetable For Dunleavy Return

spstevenson — Thu, 20 Aug 2009 12:35:53 -0000

Despite Indiana Pacers coach Jim O'Brien openly stating he thinks Mike Dunleavy could return before the start of the 2009-10 season, the team's general manager is not giving any secrets away.

Since Dunleavy had major surgery in March, the Pacers front office has instituted a "loose lips, sink ships" policy with the recovery and return of the former starter. Only O'Brien has been vocal about Dunleavy's return as he originally told fans this summer to expect a January return date, but he changed course in an interview with Mike Wells on Tuesday.

But Pacers general manager David Morway said Wednesday that the team is still not releasing an official timetable, according to RealGM's Andrew Perna, who regularly sends and receives texts with the Pacers GM. Morway said: "We are pleased with how Mike is progressing. There is no timetable regarding his return at this point."

Who is Gilbert Arenas' ideal backcourt mate?

Mike Prada — Wed, 17 Jun 2009 23:18:57 -0000

More photos » by Ned Dishman - NBAE/Getty Images

Who should join me in our backcourt?

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UPDATE: I put my entire collection of data in a Google document for all to see here. Please check it out if you have questions about those not listed.

A couple weeks ago, we talked about trying to find a way to classify Gilbert Arenas on a "pure point guard" basis. I contrasted a point guard's assist percentage with the percentage of points he scored off assists to come up with a chart to measure the starting point guards in the league. Gilbert's four-year average in both of those categories from 2003/04 to 2006/07 placed him moderately below-average relative to point guards in assist percentage and slightly above-average in percentage of points assisted. That put him closer to "finishers" like Steve Blake and Derek Fisher than "pure points" like Chris Paul and Steve Nash.

So, now that we've established that Arenas is a below-average passer and above-average scorer off the pass relative to most point guards, it's time to figure out how to best complement his diverse skills. The findings from the last post indicate that an ideal backcourt mate for Arenas needs to be a good perimeter shooter, an above-average passer for his position and an excellent perimeter defender. Beyond that, it would be nice if the player didn't create too many plays for himself and (assuming Arenas' recovery allows him to drive the lane like before) shot mostly jumpers in order to improve the floor balance.

To measure shooting ability, I took every shooting guard in the league this year and tracked their effective field goal percentage on jumpers (via 82games). The average eFG% on jumpers for sampled shooting guards was 46.6 percent. To measure passing, I used assist percentage (via BR). The average AST% of those sampled was 14.7%.To track defense, I decided to use two categories: two-year adjusted plus/minus and on/off defensive efficiency, otherwise known as the difference between a team's defensive efficiency with the player on the court versus him off the court (both are via Basketball Value). Those who were positive in both were placed in a special category. I realize the latter is a very incomplete way of measuring defense, so I'll explain times where the numbers jive with subjective opinions.

The results? There aren't many shooting guards who fit well, but there are some and they are attainable.

Narrowing down the criteria

It's fair to ask why I picked the three necessary qualities for a wing mate next to Gilbert Arenas. Here, I'll try to explain each one.

Defense: I think this is the most self-explanatory of the three. It's clear Gilbert Arenas is not a good defender. Whether that is a question of desire, concentration, quickness or a combination of all three, a backcourt mate next to Arenas needs to be able to check top wing players competently. The fact that Caron Butler and Antawn Jamison are also poor defenders makes this need even more paramount. The Wizards, during the Eddie Jordan era, played awful team defense, so even though adding one wing defender won't solve all the team's problems, it will help to turn a major weakness into at least less of a weakness.

Shooting: Even when the Wizards' offense was clicking, they were not a particularly great shooting team. Their eFG% rankings from 2005-2007, Arenas' last healthy stretch: 21st, 20th, 18th. The Wizards compensated by getting to the free throw line, limiting turnovers and pounding the offensive glass, but their perimeter shooting was always a weakness. Last season, with everyone injured, the Wizards were second-worst in eFG% in the league and also finished second-to-last in three-point percentage. Clearly, the offense needs shooters to become more diverse.

In addition, Arenas himself draws so much attention that you want to surround him with shooting to make teams pay for ganging up on him. Arenas will drive and dish when he has the opportunity, but the best shooter the Wizards have surrounded him with is DeShawn Stevenson, and he's never been an elite perimeter guy. Having a spot-up shooter will make the offense and Arenas better.

Passing: This is the most contentious of the three essential traits, but the data collected in the last post on Arenas indicates its importance. Arenas is, first and foremost, a scorer. It's what he does best. Very few players in the league were able to be as efficient as Arenas (using TS% and the like, not FG%) while using as many possessions as him during his peak. He's not a point guard and he's not a shooting guard. He's a scoring guard who can pass, but who can also score. Take a look at how his AST% and %assisted stacks up with several elite shooting guards in this league.

Arenas: 25.65 AST%, 39% assisted

Kobe Bryant: 23.8 AST%, 37% assisted

Joe Johnson: 26.4 AST%, 39% assisted

Brandon Roy: 25.1 AST%, 33% assisted

All three of those guys are among the elite scoring guards in the league. Arenas played a lot like them when he was healthy, and did so very effectively. There's no reason to change Arenas' game too much where he's the only one really initiating offense.

Since Arenas' scoring is a big strength, it pays to find a shooting guard who can create opportunities for him. An offense where Arenas is the creator and everyone else is a finisher is not a good use of the team's strengths. Frankly, it would look a lot like Cleveland's LeBron offense right now. It would also put way too much pressure on Arenas and would undermine efforts to make him a better defensive player and more of a team-oriented guy, whatever the latter means. Arenas should be controlling the ball most of the time, but he often does best with others who can create for him as well, like Larry Hughes circa 2005 or Antonio Daniels of late 2006 and 2007.

Now, it's true that the Wizards have another potential facilitator in Caron Butler. In 2007/08, with Arenas sidelined, Butler posted a career-high assist percentage (21.9) that was close to Kobe Bryant levels. But anecdotally, Butler really struggled this year as a facilitator and does not seem to be as good a passer than the number indicates. His turnover percentage went up this year as his assists went down, and he has never been particularly adept at passing off pick-and-roll situations. I'd like to see Arenas play off Butler more, and he can, but I wonder how well it's going to work when Butler has never been that type of player with Arenas healthy. Butler's finishing skills, which are excellent, haven't really been on full display since Arenas got hurt. If the potential shooting guard could also facilitate, it would create more open looks for Butler AND Arenas, which both need.

So, passing is important. Elite isn't a necessity, but above-average is.

Secondary criteria: I'd rather have a jump-shooter than a slasher since the Wizards already have enough guys who operate best inside of 18 feet (Butler, Jamison, Haywood, Songaila, Young, Blatche, etc). Being a spot-up shooter is also important, though if the guy can shoot, it doesn't matter to me all that much whether it's spotting up or off the dribble. The usage should be somewhere in the middle; not too much like Joe Johnson, but not too little like Quinton Ross or Dominic McGuire. Basically, someone who is capable of making plays, but won't try to make them too much.

Our current roster

Now that we know the criteria, let's see how our current shooting guards stack up:

DeShawn Stevenson: We can effectively toss out last season's version of DeShawn Stevenson, as he was struggling with injuries that really affected his performance. If you must know, Stevenson was 63rd out of 67 surveyed players with a dreadful 37.6% eFG% on jump shots. His two-year adjusted plus/minus of -1.13 ranked him 71st out of 113 surveyed players (remember, that's two-year APM, so it includes 2007/08 when he was healthy). The one area that Stevenson was slightly above-average was passing, as his 16.3 assist percentage ranked him 25th out of 67. However, that's mostly a case of diminshing returns -- with so many players out, someone had to pick up some assists, and Stevenson played a lot more lead guard than in the past.

That last sentence is a perfect segue back to an analysis of Stevenson's 2006/07 season. Many of you have claimed that the 2006/07 version of Stevenson was actually a pretty good fit next to Gilbert. A closer look reveals that, at least according to my criteria, that's not really true. To his credit, Stevenson did get it done to some degree in the perimeter shooting department, nailing 47.4% of his open jumpers, just above the 46.7 average for SGs this season. Otherwise, though, he was below average. His assist percentage that year was 14.3, slightly below the 14.7 average. Defensively, we don't have access to his APM, but the Wizards actually allowed 2.5 fewer points/100 possessions with him off the court.

This isn't to say Stevenson was a complete misfit. He shot decently, passed okay and played passable defense. But with so many scores close to the average, it's fair to ask whether Stevenson's numbers were actually inflated playing next to Arenas. This is particularly true in the shooting department. Stevenson's eFG% on jumpers in years prior to coming to DC aren't pretty (39.9% in 05/06, 41.5% in 04/05, 39.6 percent in 03/04 and 37.6 percent in 02/03). It's possible Stevenson's shot has just improved, and to his credit, his eFG% on jumpers in 07/08 with Arenas sidelined jumped to 48.1%, but the fact remains that Stevenson came to DC as a poor jump-shooter and became passable because of Arenas and Eddie Jordan's offense. Similarly, three of his four highest assist percentages came in his three years in DC. Arenas and the Princeton offense have a lot to do with that.

Ultimately, Stevenson fits okay, but not particularly great.

Nick Young: Stevenson does fit better than Young, however. Young was below average in each of the three necessary categories last season. He passed poorly (51st), shot poorly (45th) and has a poor two-year APM (-3.97, though it should be noted that Young actually improved the defense by 6.49 points/100 possessions last season. Go figure). He also doesn't really spot up much (only 38 percent of his hoops were assisted this year, good for 61st). This shouldn't be all that surprising for most of you, as Nick's game doesn't seem to translate well to playing alongside Arenas.

There may be some hope for Young, though, and it comes later in this post. Otherwise, Nick's probably best as a sixth man, not a starter.

Dominic McGuire: McGuire certainly has the game to play next to Arenas, but the numbers don't show it. Despite improvements on his shot, he still posted the third-worst eFG% on jumpers of the 67 players surveyed. He also had a below-average assist percentage and has a dreadful two-year APM (-8.07, though that includes his awful first year). He seems like a better defender than the numbers credit him for being, and his jumper has improved from where it once was, but McGuire certainly doesn't look like a long-term fit because he can't stretch the floor and struggles guarding quicker shooting guards.

Larry Hughes in 2005: Long seen as the gold standard of the right SG next to Arenas, Hughes did two things well: pass and defend. His assist percentage in 04/05 was 21.9, well above average, and the Wizards were 3.3 points better defensively with Hughes on the court. Unfortunately, Hughes couldn't shoot at all, dropping just 37.8 percent (eFG%) of his perimeter shots. That's barely better than DeShawn's percentage this year. The perfect SG would have many of Hughes' characteristics, though. Hughes could handle and pass well enough to allow Arenas to purely focus on scoring, and he at least defended well enough in 2005 to limit Arenas' defensive responsibilities. The guy we'd want is a Hughes-like player who shot a little better and used a few less possessions (a 26.6% usage rate is too high).

Ultimately, the Wizards lack the proper fits for Arenas. That means shooting guard is a position that is necessary to upgrade, or at least to find a better fit next to Arenas.

Around the league

Using our three key criteria, I looked at every shooting guard in the league and tried to find the ones that were above average in as many of the categories as possible last season. The results showed how tricky it is to find the right fit next to Arenas. Only four players were above-average in all three categories, and only 15 others were even above-average in two of the three.

(Italics indicates the category in which they were below average).

Rank	Player	eFG% on Js	AST%	Defense
1	J.R. Smith	53	17.3	+3.11 APM, +3.25 def on/off
2	Kirk Hinrich	51.7	22.7	+1.1 APM, +6.38 def on/off
3	Delonte West	50.3	16.6	+0.31 APM, +6.91 def on/off
4	Anthony Parker	46.9	15.7	+1.61 APM, 1.36 def on/off
5	Rip Hamilton	44.8	23.9	+0.27 APM, +0.63 def on/off
6	Dwayne Wade	44.2	40.3	+11.17 APM, +2.72 def on/off
7	Kyle Weaver	48.1	13.1	+2.07 APM, +2.84 def on/off
8	Ray Allen	56	12.6	+5.36 APM, +1.08 def on/off
9	Shane Battier	52.9	10	+4.24 APM, +2.05 def on/off
10	Rudy Fernandez	52	6.2	+6.83 APM, +2.44 def on/off
11	Jason Terry	51.9	17.6	+3.46 APM, -1.15 def on/off
12	Vince Carter	47.2	23.7	+4.11 APM, -6.11 def on/off
13	OJ Mayo	49.5	15.5	+1.21 APM, -10.54 def on/off
14	Mike Miller	52.3	21.6	-0.14 APM, -2.5 def on/off
15	Jarrett Jack	48.4	18.6	-0.94 APM, -0.55 def on/off
16	Leandro Barbosa	47.9	14.9	-3.04 APM, -0.59 def on/off
17	Keyon Dooling	49.2	21.3	-3.32 APM, -3.59 def on/off
18	Fred Jones	48	19.1	-3.59 APM, -3.24 def on/off
19	Ben Gordon	51.7	15.9	-4.95 APM, -4.4 def on/off

Going deeper

The table shows four players who fit all three categories (Smith, Hinrich, West and Parker, in that order of best to worst fit), two who fit all but the eFG% designation (Hamilton and Wade, both of whom are there because they don't shoot many threes), four who fit all but the assist percentage (Weaver, Rook's fave from last summer, Allen, Battier and Fernandez), three with above-average two-year APMs but negative defensive on/off numbers from this past year only (Terry, Carter and Mayo) and six with negative APMs coupled with negative on/off numbers (Miller, Jack, Barbosa, Dooling, Jones and Gordon).

First, the four perfect fits.

Delonte West is my personal favorite here. His assist percentage this year was way lower than in past years because of the presence of Mo Williams, so he's fully capable of initiating offense for others. His turnover rate as a primary ball-handler in the past was pretty high, but as a secondary ball-handler this year, it dropped to just 12 percent. He's an excellent catch-and-shoot player and a really good defender against shooting guards as well. Alas, he's probably not going anywhere.

Kirk Hinrich looks very good here too, confirming those who have argued here that he is a good fit. One concern here is that Hinrich's role this year was very different than in the past. He was a misfit next to Derrick Rose, though part of that is because Rose does not score off the pass like Arenas does. Like West, Hinrich is fully capable of being more of a passer than his assist percentage indicates, as it took a major drop this year due to the presence of Rose. Hinrich also is a much better perimeter shooter than advertised, rising back above 50 percent after dropping all the way to 45.1 percent in 07/08. He defends shooting guards decently, though I'd say his defense is a bit overrated. My concern is that he isn't all that adept spotting up (only 54% of his shots were assisted, below the 58% average). Otherwise, though, he looks pretty good, and considering how much Chicago seems to be giving him away, the Wizards should be doing more to try to get him, bad contract and all (though don't surrender too many assets).

It's pretty odd to me to find J.R. Smith atop this list. Two numbers jump out at me as surprising. First, I was surprised to see J.R. Smith's defensive numbers seem so strong, particularly when the only reason he comes off the bench is because of his supposed poor defense compared to Dahntay Jones. I think this is a case where the defensive numbers should be taken with a grain of salt. He's a capable defender, as he showed in the LA series guarding Kobe Bryant, but he's not as good as the numbers indicate. The other surprise is his unbelievably high percentage of jumpers made when you consider his bad shot selection. Even more shocking to me is that Smith was even better (57.1% eFG%) in 07/08. Combine that with his underrated playmaking and Smith goes atop the list. I worry, though, about Smith's high usage rate (24.2%), as it shows he may not be able to fade into the background enough. Then again, he faded alright with Chauncey Billups okay, so maybe it would work. I do think this is a case where the numbers prop up Smith higher than he deserves. Nevertheless, Smith's game is very similar to Nick Young's, so there's hope that Young can change his game slightly and still fit in okay next to Arenas.

Anthony Parker is slightly above-average in every category, and he was actually also the only player to be slightly above-average in % assisted AND % of shots as jumpers as well. But he's old and barely creeps above the average in all the categories. He doesn't really stand out anywhere, which is a concern of mine. If all things were equal, I'd sign him this offseason, but we don't have the money.

As for the others, we can rule out Wade, Battier and Mayo because they aren't coming. Gordon is out for his pitiful defense, while Jones and Dooling don't do much for me. We talked about Terry already in this thread, and you know what you get from Allen and Battier. They aren't worth discussing.

Of the rest, the guys I like most are Miller, Carter, Jack, Hamilton and Fernandez. Mike Miller is an absolutely perfect fit offensively. He shoots extremely well and is a great passer for his position. He was kind of a misfit in Minnesota working the inside-out style, but in a more perimeter-oriented attack like ours, I think he'd fit better. He shoots better off penetration than on kickouts from post players. The one major concern is his defense, which is far worse than the numbers indicate. Fernandez's lack of passing skills hurt him, and I don't think his defense is quite as good as the numbers indicate, but he also comes pretty cheaply and can definitely shoot the ball. Jack would be a good guy to get to replace Crittenton as a backup PG that could also play a bit with Arenas. His perimeter shooting surprised me a bit -- I expected to see him much lower -- and he's a better defender than the numbers indicate. Carter also fits really well offensively, but he doesn't come cheaply and he's not a great defensive player. As for Hamilton, I think the eFG% drop is deceiving, since he is an excellent mid-range shooter, but I also worry about his price and age. Still, I'd be happy with all four of those guys.

Subjectively, here's how I'd revise the group. I'm going to take out Wade and Mayo because they are completely unattainable.

West
Hinrich
Miller
Battier
Smith
Fernandez
Carter
Parker
Hamilton
Jack
Allen
Weaver
Terry
Barbosa
Dooling
Jones
Gordon

Remember, that's in order of best fit to worst fit, not best player to worst player.

Who's not here?

Manu Ginobili: Ginobili was way above-average in assist percentage (9th) and slightly below-average in shooting (42nd). Surprisingly, he had a pretty major negative defensive on/off differential (-3.27). Subjectively, he's okay, but too old and frail. I love his game, and I would have been all over a Manu trade a year ago, but I worry about him breaking down now. I also don't see him being the defender we need.

Josh Howard: I've said before that Howard fit perfectly defensively, but not offensively. His defensive numbers (+5.28 APM, +3.04 on/off defensively) are outstanding, and I actually think he's even better than that on defense. His offensive numbers, however, indicate a poor fit. He doesn't pass at all (54th among surveyed in AST%), doesn't shoot well because he isn't a great three-point shooter (51st in eFG%) and doesn't spot up much. He also uses a ton of possessions (career 23.1 usage rate). It all points to a player that is either getting touches in isolation to score or is completely uninvolved offensively. That's a bit of a concern to me. The defense, however, is so enticing that it may be worth sacrificing a poor offensive fit.

Joe Johnson: My personal favorite before this exercise, he ends up showing below-average in perimeter shooting (44th) and defense (-5.06 defensive on/off). The real problem with Johnson is that he controls the ball so much -- 26.6% usage rate combined with getting assisted on only 39 percent of his hoops this year. A lot of that has to do with how the Hawks drastically overuse him, and I do hold out hope that he becomes more like the player he was in Phoenix (secondary, able to fade in the background, better defender) if he's traded here. However, it's now been four years in Atlanta, so those high-usage habits won't go away easily.

Jason Richardson: Poor passing, poor defense. That'll do it.

Michael Redd: Redd actually fared really badly according to the numbers. He was below-average in shooting, his supposed biggest strength (40th, just below-average), though that may be because he was hurt. He's a below-average passer as well (35th at 13.2 AST%) and we all know about his defensive problems. Add that in to his high cost and that's a stay-away.

Raja Bell: Bell only drops here because his two-year APM is -0.68. Otherwise, he shoots well and plays good defense, though he doesn't pass.

Jamal Crawford: Crawford's below-average in shooting (44.6 percent, good for 49th) and defense. He does pass well, which is a plus, but he also won't be able to guard SGs and shoots too much. Pass.

(Anyone else you want me to add, I'll let you know in the comments).

What about the rookies

Stephen Curry, Tyreke Evans, James Harden. How do all three fit?

Evans and Curry seem pretty easy to peg. Both are above-average passers, with Curry having the major leg up there because he also doesn't turn it over much. Evans can't shoot, but has tons of defensive potential. Curry is an unbelievable shooter, but a Curry/Arenas backcourt would really struggle defensively. Of the two, I prefer Curry, but both work better than what we have.

Harden's the interesting one. We've head so much about how he fits in well with Arenas, but does he really? I don't have a very good read on his defense, so others will have to fill me in on that. He's a good enough passer (29.2% assist percentage) to pair with Arenas, and it's clear he did a pretty good job creating for others at Arizona State, if not always for himself. It's the shooting that concerns me. Here's a snipped from Draft Express' situational statistics article.

Harden's biggest shortcoming ended up being in the perimeter shooting department. He was terrific on the very few catch and shoot opportunities he received with his feet set (2.4 Pos/G), but really struggled when being contested (.85 PPP) or shooting off the dribble (.73 PPP). In fact, the 27% he shot from the field off the dribble is the lowest of any of the nineteen players in our sample.

His three-point percentage this year was 35.6%; not terrible, but not elite either. It's certainly possible he hasn't had a chance to show his catch-and-shoot ability because of the role he played at Arizona State, but it's clear Harden will need to develop as a shooter to fit in well offensively with Gilbert. Combine that with his mixed signals on defense and I'm not sure Harden fits as well as it seems. He fits better than anyone on the roster, though.

Summing it all up

The bad news is that nobody on the Wizards roster is a great match for Gilbert Arenas. The good news is that many of the guys that are (Hinrich, Miller, Carter, Hamilton, maybe Fernandez and Jack) are out there on the trade market. All three top shooting guards in the draft also fit better than anyone on the roster.

Finding the right fit next to Arenas is essential for Arenas and the team. It won't bring the Wizards a title, but it'll get them closer. Sacrificing assets to do so is imperitive, as long as too many assets aren't sacrificed.

I'd rather overpay to find the perfect fit than give up less to get a less-than-ideal guy. There are still enough assets left over to fix our other holes.

NBA GM's: Call Up Some More!

Scott Schroeder — Thu, 29 Jan 2009 20:34:43 -0000

Dear NBA General Managers,

Today, I'd like to go over a few more guys that deserve a call-up, even though you all have a done a fine job over the past two weeks of deciding to look to the D-League for some help. My main concern is this: If you guys don't look to the D-League, and instead look at players that have had their shot(s) and blew it, we're going to keep losing players overseas. This month, we've lost Charles Gaines, Coby Karl, Smush Parker, Alton Ford, and Andre Brown, among others. All of these guys, save for maybe Alton Ford, would have been suitable NBA pick-ups, and certainly have more upside than guys like Austin Croshere and Fred Jones, who've recently picked up 10-day contracts.

First on my list is going to Walker Russell, Jr., AKA, according to ShamSports, "I made the Knicks training camp roster only because my dad is a scout there." This, at the time, was probably true, because a kid that averages six points and four assists in 15 games, shooting less than 35% from the field in the D-League probably doesn't deserve an NBA camp invite. For some reason however, since then, he has went off! Russell is averaging 18 points and 12 assists in nearly 40 minutes of action for the Mad Ants! That he hasn't been called-up is almost as big of a traveshamockery as the time last season when Too Much Rod Benson averaged his double-doubles, including that big 28 point, 28 rebound game, and still didn't get a callup! In the month of January, Russell is averaging 19 points, 13 assists, and 2.4 steals, playing over 40 minutes per game! Tell us, NBA GM's, why isn't he called-up yet?

Next, let's talk about Will Conroy. Here's a guy that's played well in the D-League, but hasn't really had his chance in the NBA. He can score, though not really shoot, and is a great floor general that will 'D' up. Certainly someone could use him as at least a 3rd point guard. This season, Conroy is averaging 25 points, eight assists, and five rebounds, to go with two steals. He also apparently has unlimited stamina, as he's AVERAGING 45.5 MINUTES PER GAME!

A third point guard I'm going to have you look at is Dontell Jefferson. Jefferson's numbers aren't outstanding, 18, 5 and 5, but he's a floor general, a leader, that learned from one of the best point guards in the D-League the past two seasons in Maurice Baker, and now has a bit more upside. When needed, he's the best player on the floor, though this season he's been playing along side JR Giddens, Billy Walker, and Kyrylo Fesenko from the NBA, so he's just had to lead the team, and he's done that very well. When he needs to take over however, he will. In his most recent game, an overtime victory over Walker Russell Junior's Fort Wayne Mad Ants, Jefferson had 38 points, five assists, making 15 of his 27 attempts, and putting in 14 of Utah's final 15 points in the fourth quarter to force overtime!

If you're looking for a swingman, I'd say you should be looking at Marcus Williams. The good one, not the Golden State one. Williams is averaging 21 points, seven boards, and four assists, on a stacked Austin team that included Andre Brown and Charles Gaines until recently, and still includes Malik Hairston. Now that Williams is becoming more of a focal point, I'm sure his numbers will only go up. In his last game, and first without Andre Brown, Williams scored 34 points, grabbed 12 rebounds, and dished six assists. I'm not really seeing the downside on this kid.

Now, on to the big men. My first choice is going to be Richard Hendrix, the 2nd round pick out of Alabama and current Dakota Wizard. Though he's not the most consistent player, when he's on, he's on, and when he's not, he's still a big man with a good body and RIDICULOUS upside. He had 25 boards in a New Years Eve game against Erie -- that's a lot! Also, over his past three games, he's averaging 17 points and 14 rebounds. A young kid who is going to work in the post and grab the boards certainly should get a look this season.

Chris Hunter is going to be my darkhorse pick. A teammate of current Phoenix Sun Courtney Sims in college, Hunter is doing work right now in the D-League. Hunter is currently averaging 17.6 points and 10 boards a game (4 offensive), shooting an efficient 55% from the field. Over his past four games, he's averaged 20 points, 10.5 boards and a block, playing less than three quarters per game. His best game of the season was Courtney Sims last in the D-League, when he matched up against his fellow Michigan alum. In that game, Hunter scored 23 points and grabbed 18 boards in 33 minutes of action. Talk about efficient!

Also, NBA GM's, if you don't like those picks, I've got a few that I'll mention in passing that probably deserve a break. If you're looking for a shooter, pick up Dakota's Blake Ahearn. Thinking about a veteran point, why not Dakota's Maurice Baker or Colorado's Eddie Gill? Looking for a defensive specialist on the wing that can play the Scottie Pippen/Stephen Jackson point-forward role, go with Renaldo Major. If you need lots of scoring and some high-flying dunks, James White is your man. Pick up Othyus Jeffers, just to make me happy.

Keystone Clippers

Steve Perrin — Thu, 08 Jan 2009 01:44:18 -0000

Maybe we'll know more at some point, but as of right now there's no logical explanation for the Clippers actions today.

At 1:02 PM, the Clippers Communications department sent out a release saying that the team had acquired Hassan Adams from the Raptors in a trade.

At 3:06 PM, they sent one out saying that Adams had been waived.

What the deuce?

One possibility is that this was strictly a money making deal. We went through the Nuggets math on Monday, showing how much they stood to save by getting rid of Cheikh Samb, especially if it got them under the luxury tax threshold. Now, Toronto appears to be further away from the magic number, but assuming this deal is part of getting them there, then Adams $700K salary could be worth over $6M to them. Given that, it's easy to imagine a deal conceived from the outset that would pay the Clippers more in 'cash considerations' than they would owe to Adams, he would be immediately waived, and everyone would walk away happy - with the possible exception of Adams, who would be out of the league again.

But if this was a strictly financial transaction from the outset, why put out two separate press releases? After all, the goal of the communications department is to, well, commnicate. And a press release about a trade is commmunicating, however implausibly, "Hey, we got a new player today, and we're hoping that he can be a big help to our wildly shorthanded team." Releasing said player two hours later is a big Rosanne Rosannadanna "Never mind." Either the basketball people failed to explain to the communications people what was really going on (not good), or the communications people weren't clever enough to realize that they really should do one release on this deal (also not good). But the net effect is that the Clippers announced a trade for a guy who was released 2 hours later without so much as working out for the team - which looks dysfunctional on a lot of different levels.

It's also possible that the Clippers signed on for a risk-free trial of Adams just like they did with Samb - and then something changed in the afternoon, and they exercised their risk-free option of waiving the guy. Maybe they have their eye on someone else (in which case we should expect another announcement soon). Maybe they found out something else about Adams, and just cut him loose since it isn't costing them anything. I mentioned in my first post that they wouldn't hesitate to cut the guy - but I thought they'd hesitate more than this.

Ramona Shelburne posted about the trade - with a time stamp of 5:50 PM, 16 minutes before the press release announcing the waiver - and said that it was basically the same terms as the Samb trade. The conditions of the future pick are such that it is unlikely to ever happen, and the cash is enough to cover his remaining salary obligation. No fuss, no muss. But if that's the case - if there's no additional profit for the Clippers in the deal - then why release him immediately? The net effect is that the Clippers are doing a favor for the Raptors, giving themselves some extra paper work to do, and jerking around a home town kid, all for no benefit to the team. That's not a good policy. It makes me think that they have already agreed to terms with someone else for that roster spot and that an announcement is forthcoming.

If we don't hear something soon, then put it alongside the Vinny Del Negro trade as another example of the Clippers being the smallest, most petty organization in the entire NBA. But at least they waited a day to release Vinny.

UPDATE: Both Ramona Shelburne and Lisa Dillman have some clarifications on the daily roster churn. The short story is that they were ready to give Adams a free look and intended to have him in uniform against the Spurs tomorrow, and then they found out that Fred Jones' foot injury was less serious than originally thought, and that he would be available to play. Since backcourt relief was the immediate concern, it was important that whoever they signed would be available ASAP - they liked Jones all along, liked what he was bringing when he was with the team, and when they found out he was good to go, they waived Adams to make room. Unfortunately, they found out just after the Adams trade was being finalized. Bottom line - Fred will be back in uniform tomorrow in the Alamo city.

So it's not a case of front office incompetence nor even miscommunication. Just bad timing.

Clipps Waive Fred Jones and Paul Davis

Jeff Clark — Tue, 06 Jan 2009 11:37:49 -0000

A lot of teams will be making moves so they cut contracts they don't want to guarantee by this Saturday. The Clipps were one of those teams.

The Clippers acquired Cheikh Samb from the Denver Nuggets today, in exchange for a conditional second round draft pick. L.A. also got some cash as part of the deal, and to make room for Samb, they opened up a couple of roster spots by waiving Paul Davis and Fred Jones.

One writer from Dime Magazine thinks there is opportunity there for the Cs. (h/t RA)

The Celtics should sign Fred Jones immediately. Seems that all the cheapo Clip Show did was give every other NBA team a look to see what Freddie still had in the tank and frankly, it was a lot (or at least enough). The Clippers decided not to pay Jones for the rest of the year and waived him today. He’s better than Tony Allen right now and Allen is essentially the C’s 6th man. By the way, the Clippers also cut Paul Davis, who is probably better than Big Baby right now as well.

I'm not sure about those evaluations (but then again I haven't scouted either player very well), but I'm sure both guys are worth at least looking at.

Something else to keep in mind. If the team wants to take a flyer on someone, they can always give the guy a 10 day contract. If he works out, great. If not, then you still leave the door open for a run at someone like Joe Smith down the road. Of course to pick up anyone, it would mean cutting a player to make room on the roster. However, I can't imagine anyone would be too broken up about making Cassell an assistant a half year early.

Update: Some more details from an LA paper (via ClipperBlog)

Fred Jones has 48 hours to clear waivers, then can sign with any team in the league. The Clippers would like to have him back. But they needed to create a little flexibility before the seventh, since they have 15 guys on the roster.

I'm told it's far more likely Jones will be back with the team than Davis, even though the Clippers like Davis and would like to have kept him around. He just got caught in a numbers game, and on a team where point guards have been dropping like flies.

Previewing the Atlantic Division: New York Knicks Edition

Jim Weeks — Wed, 17 Sep 2008 09:00:06 -0000

2008 Record: 23-59

2008 Record Vs. the Celtics: 0-4. That includes this game, which was awesome for so many reasons:

1. It was one of those games where the final score was not indicative of how much of a blowout it was. And the final score was 104-59.

2. Isiah Thomas somehow lasted the season. I have no idea how.

3. The score was 104-59.

Departures: Renaldo Balkman, Randolph Morris

Additions: Chris Duhon, Danilo Gallinari, Patrick Ewing Jr. (Listed as Patrick Ewing on the roster. Not sure if that's harder than Jr.), and Anthony Roberson. Right now said roster lists 17 names. I'd guess that Fred Jones (free agent) and Jerome James (buyout candidate?) won't be back. Yet I don't know if Ewing Jr. can play. Something to watch. Oh by the way this is the point where your friendly BullsBlogger from Blog-A-Bull demanded that I remind everyone how bad Duhon is. Okay that didn't happen. But it could. Seriously, they do not like Duhon over there.

Key Story Heading into Camp: I'm tempted to go with something Stephon Marbury related. But it's all about Mike D'Antoni. Can he turn around the Knicks? Will they play like the Suns? Should he have taken the Bulls job? Do Curry and Randolph give him nightmares? Will he clean house? Is he allowed to clean house? Does his mustache hold magical powers?

X-Factor: Let's not kid ourselves. I wasn't going to do a New York Knicks preview in the Stephon Marbury era without including my favorite YouTube clip of all time. It's coming. In the meantime let's remember that Marbury could play a role if healthy, motivated, and right. That's a lot of ifs. And that hypothetical role is not what you'd want from a guy making $20+ million. Still a role nevertheless. Yet now that I'm halfway through this I have to admit I really want to see what D'Antoni will do for Jamal Crawford. He's an under the radar scorer and not just when Kirk Hinrich is guarding him. If I ever pulled off that move in a pick up game I'd immediately follow it with an O.J. Mayo style ball toss. Initially my teammates and opponents alike would be outraged as I walked around waving to a non-existent crowd. Eventually they'd come around.

View From the The Other Side: I caught up with Seth from Posting and Toasting and asked him what fans of the NBA had to know about the Knicks. His response:

"How about the fact that we do, actually, have guys that fit Mike D'Antoni's style of offense? People are distracted by New York's rather portly frontcourt, and fail to notice the surplus of fine athletes beneath the surface. Newcomers Danilo Gallinari and Anthony Roberson are lights-out shooters who can run the floor aptly, while Wilson Chandler and Patrick Ewing Jr. are two athletic freaks who can attack the glass and make game-changing plays. Sure, there's some dead weight at the top of the rotation, but we've got plenty of talent ready to break out in the upcoming season.." Seth from Posting and Toasting

I imagine that aspects of that will make the media guide. The whole "some dead weight at the top of the rotation" probably won't. But I have to admit I've been in the "D'Antoni with the Knicks makes very little sense" camp. So I'm intrigued. And if you're wondering, I never recovered from the trade of Shawn Marion, his subsequent tanking as a fantasy basketball player after I refused to send him away in a deal for a much more productive player, and the disintegration of the wildly entertaining Run and Gun Phoenix Suns. I haven't even remotely processed it yet. True story.

Random Point of Information: Do I owe you a YouTube clip? YES SIR!

Stephon Marbury reaction to Zach Randolph (7/1) (via MSGOnline)