SB Nation - Josh Powell

Pardon Our Bench

DexterFishmore — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 17:30:11 -0000

About a month into the season, we're starting to know some things about the Los Angeles Lakers. It's still only November, sure. We don't know how strong they'll ultimately be compared to other league powers. But we can start to see the contours of a typical night at the office.

Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum are a manly inside pair and too much for most teams to handle. Kobe Bryant is still a lethal scorer and playmaking force. Ron Artest is still a splendid defender, and on any given night either he or Lamar Odom will be good for 15 or more points. All of the above was on display against a pathetically overmatched New York Knicks team last night.

And then there's the bench. I'm really sorry to do this, but it's time we talked about the bench. We've put this off long enough.

First, let's be clear who we're talking about. Although Lamar doesn't start when the team's fully healthy, he does play starter's minutes, and his talent and production are not subject to any serious debate. He hasn't always been great so far this year, but we know he's not the problem. When Lakers fans grumble about "the bench," Lamar isn't meant to be included.

What we're really talking about is the play of Jordan Farmar, Shannon Brown, Josh Powell, Luke Walton, DJ Mbenga, Adam Morrison and Sasha Vujacic. Of this group, Walton didn't play last night because of his back injury, and Mbenga and Powell got DNP-CDs. The performances of the other four are cast into unflattering relief by their plus-minus numbers. Farmar, Brown, Morrison and Vujacic averaged a -9 in about 10 minutes of action last night. All but Farmar were on the court when the Knicks ripped off an 11-0 run, which dragged Kobe and Ron back into the game with five minutes left.

If you were surprised that the second unit failed to maintain the Lakers' lead, welcome to the wonderful sport of basketball. I hope you enjoyed your first-ever game.

With about two minutes remaining against the Knicks, Lakers play-by-play announcer Joel Meyers asked rhetorically at what point in the season the Laker reserves would "step up." After the game, sideline man Michael Eaves asked Pau how long he thought it would take for the bench to find its "rhythm." These questions contained an unstated assumption that the Laker bench right now is anomalously underperforming, playing worse than what we should reasonably expect. Is that really the case, though? What precisely are we expecting from these guys?

I'm not implying that the second unit is playing well, mind you. Certainly their job description should include being able to hold a lead against the Knicks, at home. But why do people keep expecting them to transform into game-changing shock troops? Isn't it possible that they're not "inconsistent" or "out of sync," but just not that good?

In the table below I've listed, for each of the Laker reserves in question, their PERs for the last two seasons as well as the season so far. And before you start screaming: no, I'm not suggesting that PER be accepted as an end-all, final-word metric. It's just a useful shorthand for a player's overall production and works fine for the present discussion.

Player	2007-08	2008-09	2009-10
Brown	6.6	13.0	12.8
Farmar	15.3	9.9	10.7
Mbenga	9.4	13.9	10.2
Morrison	DNP	5.7	11.2
Powell	10.4	9.9	10.8
Vujacic	14.9	12.7	6.4
Walton	12.2	11.3	15.0

If there's to be improved play from the bench this year, where's it supposed to come from? Luke was the best reserve before his injury; if he's in decent shape when he returns, the situation won't look quite so grim. But who else?

Shannon, DJ and Powell are all basically performing in line with their respective track records. At age 24, Brown likely has some improvement ahead of him, but he's not going to become a Sixth Man of the Year candidate overnight. Farmar, I'd argue as well, is also more or less where we should expect him to be. With each passing game, his performance in 2007-08 looks increasingly flukish, and his performance last season looks like his real baseline.

Adam Morrison has actually been better than we would've guessed, but no one thinks he's a candidate to be even a league-average player. The dude is simply no es bueno. If he's in the NBA next year, it'll be solely due to residual caché from having been a high lottery pick once upon a time.

The real mystery in all this is Sasha Vujacic, who in three years has gone from good to frustrating to radioactively bad. On the one hand, it seems improbable that he'll remain this terrible; someone his age shouldn't completely fall apart absent an injury. On the other hand, he shows no sign of bouncing back any time soon. He's averaging less than 10 minutes a night and has made only two shots in the last five games. It must be getting hard for Phil Jackson to justify even putting him on the court.

What about help from outside? As Ben R pointed out in the comments last night, two available names are Jerry Stackhouse and Wally Sczcerbiak. If those guys had anything at all left in the tank, they wouldn't be available. There's also Allen Iverson, though it's hard to imagine the Lakers voluntarily stepping on that particular land mine.

A deadline trade will be a possibility, the most likely situation involving cutting bait on Farmar and shipping out Morrison's expiring deal. It's not possible at this point to foretell who might be obtainable in return.

The Lakers, we should probably just admit, are stuck with a subpar bench. The reserves aren't about to "step up" or find "consistency." How the Lakers have won games so far, by overwhelming opponents with top-line talent, is how they'll have to get it done in the foreseeable future. Which might, in fact, be plenty good enough.

Lakers Handle Pistons as Kobe Finds Balance

Josh Tucker — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 10:13:21 -0000

More photos » by Jeff Gross - Getty Images

Back to his old tricks, but with some new ones to boot.

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Lakers fans understand what I mean when I say that sometimes, watching Kobe Bryant play, it's almost as though the game in progress becomes secondary. The greatness of Kobe Bryant simply transcends the moment, and you could almost forget that there is an event taking place, the outcome of which matters quite a bit to the players, coaches, and indeed, Kobe Bryant himself. You could almost forget that anything bigger was happening than you, sitting transfixed, watching Kobe be Kobe. This was one of those nights — not quite to the extent of 81 points, or 62 in three quarters, but nonetheless.

And yet, even as Kobe Bryant finished with 40 points for the 100th time in his career — only the third player in history to reach that mark — there was a game taking place. And it just so happens that it was a game that mattered just a little bit more than your average November NBA game against middling competition. The Lakers were on their first "losing streak" of the season, having lost their last two games, and those two losses had been bad ones. Too soon to be freaking out? Yes, of course. Important to right the ship? Also, yes.

So while it would be so tempting to simply bask in the beauty of Kobe's one hundredth 40-point game, and the way in which he scored those 40 points, we're going to resist that urge and get into some other observations about this mostly encouraging game.

Okay, so maybe we'll bask for a moment, at least. Let's do this quasi HP-style.

Thing That Mesmerized Me

Kobe Bryant. Perhaps it was poetic, in some sense, that Kobe started the night with an unchallenged airball, before roaring out to a frustrating 1-6 start. Then, in a performance that is indicative of Kobe's challenge this year, he shot 16-23 for the rest of the game, including an unbelievable stretch in the second and third quarters in which he hit 12 of 15 shots.

The challenge for Kobe, this year perhaps more than ever before, is adaptation. As most of you know, I'm a huge fan of his significantly augmented post game, and I'm not alone. I think it could equate to a leap in Kobe's overall game, as well as increased longevity at a very high level as he plays into his thirties. However, as dominant as Bryant's post game has been in the early season, it has at times been so much the focus that it has rendered both Kobe and the team one-dimensional. If Kobe is going to play almost exclusively from the post, and the Lakers are going to force the ball into him on every possession, then defenses will pack it into the paint and both Bryant and the Lakers as a whole will sputter. Even Stu and Joel picked up on this, admiring Kobe's new post moves while also calling for him to mix it up, keeping opponents guessing rather than falling into a predictable routine.

Last night, he did just that, and he was brilliant. If the last few years have been "Good Ol' Kobe," and this year has been "Post Kobe," then his 100th forty-point game was a devastating combination of the two. At times, he posted up. At others, he attacked from the perimeter, off the dribble or on cuts within the offense. At times, he created head-shakingly easy shots for himself with superb footwork and the full utilization of the broadest, most fundamentally sound skill set in existence. At others, he simply hit impossible shots, as he always has done — fadeaway jumpers after absorbing the foul, super-extended hook-layups, and no-look, over-the-head toss-ins that have no business finding the net. But best of all, while busy being unstoppable, he still found time to look for his teammates.

As Kobe's game changes, and the needs of his team also change, teams will adapt to counter him. For Kobe, continued dominance — both for himself, and for his team — depend not on any one skill, but on his ability to balance all of his many skills, keeping defenses guessing and playing not only to his strengths, but to his team's. This is what he did last night.

Oh, and 40 points on 29 field goal attempts. Sweet.

Things I Liked

The second and third quarter efforts. The Lakers played very good defense during these two periods, holding the Pistons to 0.90 points per possession. They were active and persistent, and the Pistons' offense often struggled to find a shot at all (let alone a good one) before the buzzer. On the other side of the ball, the Lakers' offense was untouchable, scoring at a jaw-dropping rate of 1.45 points per possession. Their passing was crisp, willing, and frequent, and it was a thing of beauty to watch. Of course, it didn't hurt that the Lakers' new dynamic duo were on fire in these two quarters, with Kobe scoring 27 on 12-15 shooting, and Andrew Bynum hitting 6-8 for 14 points, along with four rebounds.

Andrew Bynum. Offensively, it's safe to say the kid has arrived. He is so long, so soft of the hands, and so talented, that few teams can keep Bynum from getting his points these days, and at a very efficient rate. Tonight, however, his effort was there in every aspect of the game. He was moving his feet on defense, showing on pick and rolls and even challenging guards on the perimeter. He was altering shots, lunging after rebounds, and even scrambling after loose balls. Offensively, he wasn't forcing it, made good decisions, and knew when to kick the ball out, resulting in an open shot for a teammate or a re-post for himself. He has had better numbers, but it is with all-around efforts like these that he is at his best, and makes the Lakers that much harder to beat.

The Bench. They didn't mesmerize me, but they were good enough. Josh Powell remained steadily consistent, Jordan Farmar attacked the basket and remained under control, and Shannon Brown continued to be a spark of energy whose impact on the game was far more positive than his 4-12 shooting line would seem to indicate. Yes, I was watching in the fourth quarter ... see below.

Ron Artest, role player. Has he ever been less noticeable, or less noticed, in his entire career? At this point, he is flying so low under the radar, playing with such poise, and fitting so well into the system without drawing attention to himself, being a distraction, or wasting Laker possessions, that I don't feel like it fits to call him anything but his full name, at this point. No Crazy Pills, no Tru Warier, not even Ron Ron. When you forget he's there, he's just Ron Artest. And it's a very good thing.

Pau Gasol, hopeful. The Spaniard has been very vocal about his frustration with his injury, and has shown a rare willingness to express some pretty serious negativity regarding it to the press. The fact that during the third/fourth quarter interview, he was hopeful and positive, and seemed to think it very possible that he could be back by Thursday, was encouraging to me. Also, Phil Jackson was tickled pink not to have to do said third/fourth quarter interview.

Things I Didn't Like

The First Quarter. The second and third quarters were a relief, because the first was continued frustration. Non-existent defense, sloppiness on offense, overall lack of effort and interest, and general bobbleheadedness. The Lake Show was discombobulated and distracted in the first quarter, and a good team would have put us in a pretty decent early hole.

Pau Gasol choosing the wrong CSI. I'm all about Gasol branching out. The dude's a scholar and a philosopher, and was studying to be a doctor before he decided to go pro ball. I wouldn't be at all surprised if he can act, and I wish him the best of luck. And since I just like the guy so damn much, if he does act, I'm probably going to want to see it. Which now poses a problem, since watching CSI: Miami is against my religion. Seriously, Pau?

Thing I Hated

Staples Center Boo-ing Kwame Brown. Disappointing doesn't say it. Appalling is closer. Way to stay classy, Los Angeles.

Thing I Didn't Care About

The Fourth Quarter. Perhaps you're upset about the end-of-game lapse. You wanted the bench to come in and hold the 25-point lead. You wanted a good, old fashioned blowout. The fact that the Pistons cut the lead from 25 to eight, before finally losing by 13, really frustrates you, and you can't see how I could list the bench as a positive.

Frankly, I could care less whether we win by 13 or 25. I fully expect that a team up 25 in the fourth is going to let up a bit, play with less intensity, and thereby let the other team back in a bit. Let's be honest, a 25-point fourth quarter comeback is virtually impossible — consider, for example, that between the two teams, only three times (out of eight) did a team score more than 25 total quarter points. 25 more than your opponent in a single quarter? Not happening. So yeah, a team up 25 in the fourth quarter relaxes a bit, and the other team gets back in it a bit. The game was never in danger, so I couldn't care less.

Thing I'd Like To Leave You With

Clearly, this season is still a process. If you honestly thought the Lakers could win 70 games, you didn't consider that this team still has many lessons left to learn — and to Phil Jackson, the regular season is for learning those lessons, not for chasing meaningless records. Because there are still lessons left to be learned, there will be ups and downs. The weekend was a down, and a bit discouraging. As of this moment, we're back on the up. No, all problems are not fixed, and this team is not ready to win a championship yet. But we're seeing very good potential from them, and an ability to understand their own problems, along with a willingness and ability to address and resolve them. While not enough to inspire entitlement arrogance supreme confidence, it is certainly an encouraging indication.

Lakers Bully Suns, 121-102

Josh Tucker — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 18:43:37 -0000

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What's not to like, right? Well, actually a few things, if you want to nit-pick. And it doesn't even matter.

You might be surprised by the number of key statistical categories that the Suns won last night. Turnovers, free throws, rebounding, all categories in which the Suns had an advantage — and they really shouldn't have. Not that it did them much good, of course, and we'll forgive the Lakers some minor lapses in what was, overall, an absolutely dominant performance. To sum it up, the Lakers simply scored better and defended better, and the game was never close. Period.

Kobe Bryant and Andrew Bynum dominated in the paint, and the Lakers effectively contained Steve Nash while thoroughly thwarting the Suns' scorers. All of them. The leading scorer for the high-scoring Suns? Jared Dudley with 14 points, most of which were scored after the game was already decided.

The Lakers shot 57.6% from the field and 50% on threes, while holding the Suns to 36.5% from the field and 34.8% on threes. Game over.

Hey Boston, did we mention Pau Gasol hasn't played yet?

Let's go ahead and get into the negatives, the things the Lakers didn't do well, and then I'll explain to you why they were completely acceptable concessions to make to this Suns team.

	Possessions	TO%	FTA/FGA	FT%	eFG%	TS%	Off Reb	Def Reb	PPP
Lakers	103	14.6%	19.6%	38.9%	62.0%	58.7%	16.7%	57.5%	1.17
Suns	103	12.6%	27.9%	62.1%	40.4%	49.5%	32.9%	64.6%	0.99

As you can see in the table above, the Suns turned the ball over at a lower rate, earned free throws at a higher rate, hit their free throws at a much higher rate, and thoroughly out-rebounded the Lakers on both ends of the court. Let's start with why this might bother you.

The Suns are one of the most turnover-prone teams in the NBA, and not very good at forcing turnovers; the Lakers force turnovers quite well, but are pretty good at controlling their own. And yet, the Lakers turned the ball over at a higher rate than the Suns last night. The Suns also rebounded at a much higher rate than the Lakers, which is in keeping with the trend on the defensive glass, but pretty unusual on the offensive boards, where the Lakers usually dominate. And even beyond statistics, it could be seen as a bit disappointing that the Small Suns out-rebounded the Long Lakers.

Finally, the Lakers earned fewer free throws than the Suns — all of which is in keeping with their trends thus far, but it's worth noting that the Lakers fell well short of their usual .271 FTA/FGA mark, at only .196. Worst of all, they made only 38.9% of their free throws. Unacceptable.

Now let me tell you why none of this is as big a concern as it might usually be — well, aside from all the missed free throws, that is. The reality is that most of this was simply part of the Lakers' game plan — a game plan that worked to perfection.

The Suns are a running team. As Timbo made quite clear to us all yesterday, Jason Richardson in particular is the king of leaking out early as soon as the Suns' opponents take a shot, where the Suns feed him for early offense in the forms of layups and PUJIT threes. They're also great at spacing the floor and knocking down absurd amounts of three-pointers at a very high rate.

The Lakers solution to this was three-fold. First, forget about offensive rebounds and get back on defense. Don't let them run out on you. They did that, and the Suns had a hard time scoring as they usually do. Second, send the ball into the post on offense and bring the entire Suns defense below the free throw line. This they also did, and it further limited long rebounds and easy run-out opportunities for the Suns. Specifically, Kobe going into the post was particularly effective, not only because he decimated the Suns in the paint (which he did), but also because Jason Richardson was his defender, and getting him so close to the basket on defense made it hard for him to run out on early offense; you don't just sneak out on Kobe Bryant. Third, cover the shooters. Chase them off the three-point line, contest their shots. In general, don't give them a chance to shoot themselves into the game with open threes. They did this, and the Suns shot 34.8% from long distance, compared to their 47.4% mark from the first nine games of the season.

In addition, the Lakers played a containment game with Steve Nash. We're all well acquainted with Nash's ability to dribble penetrate into the heart of the defense and then dish to cutting forwards and open shooters. Last night, they looked to limit his effectiveness in that role, and part of that simply means less gambling and more defense. Again, the Lakers were successful in their efforts, as Nash was held to 13 points and, most impressively, only five assists.

While the Lakers FTA/FGA rate was pretty low, it could have had something to do with the fact that they shot the ball so well and scored so easily. The Suns aren't exactly a physical team, and they didn't have a prayer against the Lakers superior size.

Let's talk a bit more about defense before we lavish praise on Kobe Bryant and Andrew Bynum, shall we? Andrew Bynum, Ron Artest, and Kobe Bryant were fantastic, and the team as a whole was quite stingy. Bynum completely frustrated Amare Stoudamire, holding him to 2-15 shooting for eight points and only 5 rebounds. Jason Richardson and Leandro Barbosa struggled against the Lakers' backcourt, with Richardson going 2-9 for five points (0-5 on threes) and Barbosa going 4-12 for nine points. Between the five starters and sixth man Barbosa, Nash was the only one to score in double digits, with 13 points.

Perhaps my favorite thing about this game is that ever-controversial box score statistic, the assist. However, while assists are limited and often misleading in characterizing an individual player's passing, they are much more effective in characterizing a team's passing. And while the Lakers moved the ball extremely well, tallying a stellar 36 assists on 53 buckets, the Suns were held to only 12 assists on the night. For a team that spaces the floor and passes so well, that's a strong indicator of how well the Lakers defended this Phoenix team.

Offensively, there was plenty to be happy about. The Lakers knew their advantage, and they never strayed from the game plan. They took the ball into the post and imposed their superior size and strength at will. Jason Richardson had not a prayer against Kobe, who continued to dominate in the post. Andrew Bynum looks better and better every day, displaying an array of post moves and simply shooting over the Suns' "bigs." I never tire of admiring Drew's soft hands; last night, he caught several tough passes, throwing down what seemed like a handful of alley-oops, including a reverse-dunk alley-oop.

Both Bryant and Bynum had extremely efficient games. Combined, they were 26-39 from the field for 51 points, along with 19 rebounds, 5 assists, and 3 blocks. Quite a superstar duo.

Of course, the rest of the team wasn't too shabby, either. Artest continued his solid defensive play, and continued to play well within the offense. Derek Fisher hit some shots, and Lamar Odom had a quietly efficient all-around game, as he is prone to do (4-5 shooting, 8 points, 12 rebounds, 7 assists, 1 steal, 1 block).

Most impressive after Kobe and Drew, however, were the bench players. Josh Powell was 6-10 for 14 points with 7 rebounds, 3 assists, and a steal. Shannon Brown was a BEAST, shooting 4-6 for 10 points, along with 4 assists and a couple of monster dunks. Dude got hops. Jordan Farmar was positively brilliant. Sure, he missed most of his shots, but who cares? He facilitated the offense like he rarely has, tallying 8 assists in just 21 minutes of burn. Adam Morrison hit both of his shots, and Luke Walton dished out 4 assists.

In all, the bench was 18-35 for 45 points, along with 17 rebounds, 17 assists, a couple steals, a couple blocks, and only 5 turnovers. They were much more controlled, their passing was crisp, and if they keep this up, we just might have the old Bench Mob back. The commentators, apparently uninformed overall (seriously, how do they not know about the MVP chants or the tacos?), stated that Phil Jackson has started reining the bench in more. He used to let them play loose and unstructured, letting them play more of a running game, but has recently decided to get them into the triangle more, to bring them more under control. The last few solid games from the bench could just be coincidence, but it could also be that this strategy is working. If the Lakers bench becomes a reliable force again, we'll be extremely hard to beat.

Overall, the Lakers held the Suns to an excellent 0.99 points per possession, while scoring at a very high rate of 1.17 points per possession on the other end of the floor. Good defense, good offense, plain and simple.

Oh, and hey Boston, did we mention Pau hasn't played yet?

Forever Young: Lakers beat Grizzlies 114 to 98

djturtleface — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 13:41:40 -0000

More photos » by Lori Shepler - AP

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In a night with a few upsets, the Grizzlies didn't manage to force one of them. While they did lead at halftime, the Grizzlies were routed by the Lakers last night. To reiterate the point the Lakers were missing two enormous pieces in this game, Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum, but still slowly figured out how to pick apart the Grizzlies. Remember that championship pedigree thing? It looks a lot like this game.

Check the Grizzlies vs Lakers boxscore and Silver Screen and Roll for more on the game, and be sure to get over the jump for way more recap and the usual highlights.

Recap

Kobe Bryant just shredded the Grizzlies non-defense for 41 points, as expected, and Ron Artest also had his first great game of the season tonight. Artest absolutely filled it up with 19 points, 6 rebounds, 7 assists, and a block and steal on defense. Frontcourt fill-ins D.J. Mbenga and Josh Powell also played admirably.

Both Rudy Gay and Zach Randolph scored for the Grizzlies, but they also were non-entities on defense. Ron Artest picked Rudy apart to give him a game-worst +/-, and while Z-bo wasn't too shabby against Lamar Odom, he got beat by Josh Powell's midrange jumper. O.J. Mayo, Allen Iverson, and Mike Conley all looked bad -- what guard controversy?

The bench was again pretty much a non-factor, as bench players were typically slotted into some permutation of the starting lineup. I will say that the lineups do often look a bit better when some scoring has been traded for some defense -- often a lot better.

Rockness Monster- Ron Artest just killed Rudy Gay tonight. You could see the veteran savvy in his fakes and footwork that left Rudy nowhere near passing lanes or challenging shots on the few possessions he made a real effort on defense.

U-Turn- After one good night, Allen Iverson turns in a bad one. He played around 20 minutes, but only managed 8 points and 3 assists. Looks like Conley will remain the starter for the foreseeable future if neither of them can impress against a half-decent defense.

Bitter Lemon- One point I finally noticed tonight is that the Grizzlies offense runs almost completely different depending on if either Conley or Iverson is in controlling the ball. With Conley the offense normally actually runs through Gasol in the high-post, this is something many writers have asked for, but I'm not so thrilled with the reality. The other players aren't running the plays crisply enough for Gasol to deliver them the ball.

With Iverson the offense run better because it is a more tradition isolation setup, which plays better into the Grizzlies personnel, but is likely only going to exacerbate the trouble of having four isolation scorers all craving shots. In other words neither of these is the right way to play.

Sleeping With the Enemy- Now I'm picking up my own sloppy seconds after focusing on Ron Artest as my player of the game, so let me change over to the Lakers bench. Against the Grizzlies these guys looked good again. Luke Walton was dropping reverse layups for heaven's sakes.

Kobe Disembowels Mayo, Lakers Roll

DexterFishmore — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 06:35:31 -0000

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The Memphis Grizzlies aren't good, so we shouldn't get carried away here. They're young, and their roster has been put together without a coherent blueprint. Playing at home, the Lakers should beat these guys, even with Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol in dry-dock.

All that said, the Lakers put on a splendid all-around show tonight. After a sputtery first half that ended with the Grizz up 2, the L.A. offense roared into high gear to win going away. Ron Artest (14 points 19 points, 7 assists, 6 rebounds) continued his All Star-caliber play, DJ Mbenga (a career-high 13 rebounds) and Josh Powell filled in ably for the missing frontcourt starters, and Derek Fisher and Jordan Farmar tag-teamed the point position as well as they have in ages.

What everyone will be talking about, though, is Adam Morrison, who lit up the scoreb-... no, sorry. I'm misreading my notes. Kobe Bryant, I meant to say, is what everyone will be talking about tomorrow. Working almost exclusively from the post, he kneecapped the Grizzly defense with 41 points on 65% True Shooting. Just as remarkably, he committed zero turnovers. OJ Mayo spent most of the night guarding Kobe one-on-one and basically got vaporized.

The box score is here, and the tempo-free numbers are below. Enjoy your evening. The Lakers are 5-1.

	Poss.	TO%	FTA/ FGA	FT%	EFG%	TS%	Off Reb%	Def Reb%	PPP
Lakers	89	9	0.12	82	55	57	40	72	1.28
Grizz	88	14	0.37	76	48	53	28	60	1.11

Kobe Enjoys Shanking the Rockets

DexterFishmore — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 16:15:19 -0000

There was never any hope that last night's game between the Los Angeles Lakers and the Houston Rockets was going to be pretty. For the Lakers it was part two of a back-to-back on the road. Their best player was ill and had played 46 minutes the night before. Their second best player had played zero minutes the night before, not to mention the nine games before that, because of a hamstring requiring attention from a multinational team of doctors. The Lakers entered the game tired, shorthanded and far from the comforts of home.

And the Rockets... well, unpretty is just how they play. They stretched LA to seven games in last year's playoffs with punishing defense and a grinding pace, and for all the talk of their up-tempo, post-Yao persona, slow and grinding is still their best shot at competing with talent-rich NBA superpowers. Throw in the weird, ambient bitterness on both sides over the Ariza-Artest thing, and the Magic 8-Ball clearly pointed to Slow-Motion Hammer Fight as the likely outcome.

But who says hammer fights can't be fun! They're especially good times* when you're not the one getting the final crack across the face.

(* = SS&R doesn't actually endorse literal hammer fights. Please, kids, stick with your fists.)

Even with expectations in check, there was plenty in last night's game to drive Laker fans to narcotic usage. The offense in the first half was stuperous, lacking in purpose and ball movement. Possession after possession ended with a long, challenged two-point attempt. Kobe Bryant had all kinds of energy, possibly finding an extra gear in the company of supposed nemesis Shane Battier, but no other Laker really distinguished himself.

Wait, scratch that: Josh Powell distinguished himself. Seriously, Josh Powell! He had seven points in the first half, including a shockingly natural-looking three bomb. As Chris observed in the comment thread, Powell appears to be developing a Robert Horry-ish skill set. Stay tuned.

The Lakers, to their credit, avoided a repeat of the turnover orgy we saw against Oklahoma City on Tuesday. After turning the rock over on 25% of their possessions against the Thunder, the Lakers did so on only 9% of their possessions last night. Yay! Improvement is good.

On defense there were successes and failures. Artest continued his string of superb lockdown efforts by hounding Ariza into a terrible (5 for 21) shooting performance. Less enjoyably, Aaron Brooks tortured the Laker D with the drive-and-dish, repeatedly setting up Carl Landry (20 points on 9-for-12 shooting) and Chuck Freaking Hayes (14 on 7-for-9), who's one of the worst offensive players in the NBA.

Also, Houston got assloads of offensive rebounds all night long. This was annoying.

The scoring picked up in the third quarter. Lamar Odom found his outside stroke, while Brooks, Ariza and The Odious Luis Scola spearheaded the Houston attack. Scola, I must point out, throws elbows around like he's a child molester passing out candy. I counted three egregious instances of such, resulting in one offensive foul, one truly absurd defensive foul and one no-call. I do not like Luis Scola, and I don't care who knows it.

In the fourth, shit got really weird. Against the Laker bench the Rockets built a seven-point lead to open the quarter, at which point Kobe came back in and activated his MVP Settings. With an array of baseline turnarounds and step-throughs, he abused Battier to the point where by the final few possessions and with the game in the balance, the Rockets started running a second defender at him. This appeared to be a fatal mistake when Kobe found Artest for a wide open, top-of-the-key bomb that put the Lakers ahead by three with 30 seconds to play.

On the ensuing possession, Ariza had his moment. A jump ball landed in his mitts at the three-point line near the right elbow, and he smoothly drained it for the tie. This was the first of two examples of poor Laker endgame execution. With a three-point lead, they should have fouled Ariza and sent him to the line for two freebies, instead of allowing the look that tied up the game.

The second late-game FUBAR came when the Lakers brought the ball back up the court with 14 seconds left. Kobe handled the rock - so far, so good - but rather than flattening out into the usual 1-4 isolation set, Bynum left the baseline to set a high screen. This succeeded only in drawing another defender onto Kobe and thus mucking up the whole shebang. The ball got fumbled out of bounds, and regulation ended with a hopeless long-distance lob attempt. Overtime, bitches!

The back-and-forth continued in the extra period, with Kobe trading hoops with Brooks and motherf-cking Chuck Hayes. Scola and Hayes eventually fouled out, Bynum made some clutch throws in the final minute, and Derek Fisher came up with a huge strip of Ariza with seconds left to seal the un point victory. The Lakers are now 4-1.

Unforch, they're once again staring at the possibility of life without Bynum. On the final Laker possession of overtime, he was on the receiving end of a hard foul that appears to have sprained his elbow. At the time I'm writing this, early morning in LA, not much more is known about the extent of his injury, other than that he was "very sore" while getting dressed in the locker room. Please pray to your diety of preference that it's not serious.

(Or whatever, sacrifice a virgin if that's appropriate for your faith. I'm serious about this. Another extended Bynum outage is not what my life needs right now.)

But that's depressing, so let me end on a happier note. Kobe, it must be said, is making an early statement in the MVP race. In a slow, arduous game, he rang up 41 points in pretty efficient fashion against one of the best defenders around. And he did so, with apologies for repeating myself, having played 46 minutes the night previous. And while sick. And without his second offensive option to draw defensive heat away from him. And on the road dammit it was all extremely difficult.

A grand performance, it was. Grand every step of the way. Let us all bow our heads in respect.

	Poss.	TO%	FTA/ FGA	FT%	EFG%	TS%	Off Reb%	Def Reb%	PPP
Lakers	95	9	0.30	71	45	49	33	61	1.08
Rox	95	21	0.28	71	49	53	39	67	1.07

(H/T Mike Bresnahan of the LA Times for the Bynum report.)

Game Preview: Dallas Mavericks vs. Los Angeles Lakers

C.A. Clark — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 19:00:34 -0000

More photos » by Kevork Djansezian - Getty Images

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Tonight, the Lakers take the court at Staples Center for their 2nd game of the season. The first game was almost an afterthought. The Lakers received their championship rings, unveiled their new banner, and then played a game that we all know they weren't full focused on. For once, no one should really have a problem with it. If the Lakers win the championship again this year, no one on SS&R will begrudge them a distracted game for the season opener next season either.

Tonight should be a little different. The Lakers might still play an unfocused game, but they won't have any excuses if they do. Tonight is just about basketball. So how have these two teams looked coming in?

Dallas Mavericks (0-1, 100.5 OR, 112.7 DR, 90.5 possessions per game)

Dallas played opening night, same as the Lakers. They lost at home to the Washington Wizards, behind an excellent game from newly returned star Gilbert Arenas. Both teams had a lot of new players (either from trades or, in Washington's case, returning from injury), so how they played isn't necessarily indicative of what's to come from either team. Last year, Dallas surprised a few people by gelling as the season went on. They were one of the better teams down the stretch (after it was initially unclear if they would even make the playoffs), and ended up with the 6th seed. They promptly defeated the weakened Spurs in an upset that surprised very few, before getting annihilated by Denver in the Western Conference Semis. They've made a few changes to last year's roster that have many saying they are poised for a great year, the biggest being the addition of Shawn Marion. I personally remain unconvinced that Marion is anything other than a decent player who Steve Nash made look incredible, but I guess if you were going to pick a point guard besides Nash who could get the most out of Marion, you would have to pick ... Chris Paul. Gotcha! But seriously, Kidd would be high up on the list of point guards to know what to do with Marion's athletic talents. And their season depends upon how well Marion can be integrated into the Mavericks offense, while hopefully improving a defensive team that has a lot of liabilities.

Los Angeles Lakers (1-0, 101.6 OR, 94.4 DR, 97.5 possessions per game)

The Lakers' mentality on opening night has already been described here, so we'll talk a bit about the game. In the game itself, it was clear that the Laker starting 5, even without Pau, was vastly superior than a Clippers starting 5 (missing Blake Griffin) that has a good deal of talent, as evidenced by a 10 point lead at the end of the 1st quarter. It was also clear that DJ Mbenga and Josh Powell should never see the floor together unless a game is out of reach, as the 2nd unit gave up all of the lead in a short 6 minute stretch. The starters came back in and rebuilt a double digit lead by halftime. The 3rd quarter saw those same starters visibly let up their intensity, and the Clippers made a run to make the game a one point affair. If the 2nd unit had had a similar 6 minute stretch at the beginning of the 4th quarter to the one at the beginning of the 2nd, this game could have ended badly for the Lake Show. But the coaches saw to it that wouldn't be the case. No 5 man unit in the 4th quarter had less than two starters in it. The Lakers pulled out a relatively comfortable victory, leading by as much as 13 in the 4th before setting for a 7 point win. But there are some numbers that, while not concerning over a one game sample, would be bad news over the course of the season. Those numbers are: 41, 40, 38, 38, and 33. They are the minutes played of our starters, Artest, Odom, Bynum, Bryant, and Fisher respectively, and they are all too high. The Lakers have too much talent to need anyone to play more than 38 a game, and Fisher is supposed to be much lower than 33. But the bench needed a couple starters to hold their hands. The Lakers bench is the key to their regular season success, and if the bench continues to struggle, L.A. will not be as strong as they could, and should, be.

Make the jump for some matchup analysis

The Matchups

Dallas' starting 5 consists of Jason Kidd and Quinton Ross at the guards, Dirk Nowitzki and Shawn Marion at the forwards, and Erik Dampier at C, although Quinton Ross as a starter is pure lip service, because Dallas employs Jason Terry off the bench as an offensive jump-starter, even though Terry is probably the Mavericks 2nd best player. In the first game of the year, Ross played 19 minutes, and Terry played 37, so you tell me who the starter is. Moving on, their bench consists of JET, Jose Barea, Drew Gooden and Kris Humphries. Dallas is a pretty old team, so they don't really run the ball much, as evidenced by their slow pace in the last game, and relatively slow pace last season (17th in the NBA). Look for Dallas to run a lot of half court sets for Nowitzki, who is the Mavericks' horse. Too much so, in fact. Jason Kidd said after their first game "If we have to ride Dirk that much, it'll kill him." Against a team as good as the Lakers, don't expect Dallas to try anything new tonight, so it will still be a heavy dose of Das German. Outside of Nowitzki, Dallas' offense revolves around quick guard penetration, with JET and Barea doing most of the damage there.

Defensively, this is not a great team, because their best players on offense are varying degrees of a liability on defense. Kidd is just too slow to be the defensive master he once was, and defense has never been the forte of Dirk. However, with Marion playing heavy minutes, and Dampier anchoring the middle, they are not bad defensively either. Pretty much middle of the road.

The Lakers starting 5 will unfortunately remain unchanged from the first game. I say unfortunately because that means another game without Pau Gasol. The starters will be Fisher, Bryant, Artest, Odom, and Bynum. This unit played pretty well in the first game, building 3 big leads (though they lost one of the leads on their own). If, as we expect, Phil Jackson's rotations off the bench will be geared towards matchups on an individual night, look for tonight's guards to be Farmar and Sasha, with Brown getting only a few minutes. Walton should get more than the 3 minutes from the first game, unless that's indicative of where PJ wants to go with his rotations. And I think we can all get on board with saying that hopefully Powell and Mbenga will be used sparingly, and never at the same time.

Comparing the lineups, it doesn't look great for Dallas. Their bread and butter, getting the ball to Nowitzki, won't work as well as they'd like because the Lakers employ Lamar Odom, who has both the speed and size to keep Dirk from getting whatever he wants. Nowitzki will still be successful, but he probably won't have his most efficient night. So look for Dallas to bring in Jason Terry early, and utilize him to great effect. How the Lakers counter the quick Dallas guards off the bench will determine whether this is a close game or a blowout. Plus, Jason Kidd might be the one point guard in the league Derek Fisher can still guard straight up.

For the Lakers on offense, Bynum already passed the test against an OK defensive center with good size in Chris Kaman, now he gets an undersized center who is very strong. If Bynum continues to be successful against Dampier, it will be just another sign that dominant Bynum is real. Other then that, the Lakers should be alright across the board. Artest and Marion will probably cancel each other out, but Marion doesn't have the strength that Artest does, so Artest might be able to bull rush his way into the lane. But, as it always is, the reason the Lakers look very strong against this team on offense is Kobe Bryant. Most teams don't have a way to stop Kobe, but Dallas is really lacking in that area. Quinton Ross is the only viable option for the Mavericks on Kobe, and he only played 20 minutes the other night. A backcourt of Kidd and JET, which the Mavericks like to employ, will get destroyed by Kobe. So either the Mavericks limit themselves on offense to even have a chance at containing Bryant defensively, or they try to outscore LA by putting their best offensive foot forward. The Lakers will do both at the same time.

Prediction: Without the distractions of opening night, the Lakers come out with a bit more focus and purpose. Also, having experimented in the first game, PJ will keep his lineups off the bench a little less crazy. This should fall somewhere between a less than comfortable win and a blowout for the Lakers, depending on how well the bench executes.

Doing Our Part: Previewing the Defending Champion Lakers

Josh Tucker — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 01:00:36 -0000

As I've mentioned before, we're participating in CelticsBlog's giant round-up of previews. We've seen the Atlantic & Southwest divisions, and I just posted links for the Central & Northwest divisions a few moments ago (be sure to check those out). Southeast division links will be coming soon, but now it's our turn.

Yes, I'm aware that a season preview the day after the first game of the season is a bit unusual, but hey — CelticsBlog organized this, so see it as a positive thing: another reason to blame the Greenie Weenies, right? Meanwhile, we've done a lot of detailed, in depth work here at SS&R, over the last two weeks, to preview our Lakers, meaning that some of this will be a bit redundant (it's too much to link; just browse our recent archives if you haven't seen it yet). Part of the idea here is to help those who don't know our team as well as we do to get better acquainted with the Lakers (though I think that may be more of a concern for the Grizzlies than the Lakers); for those of you who have been with us as we geared up for the start of the season, consider this a final summary of what we here at SS&R expect for the season.

With that, click on through for our final season preview piece of the 2009-10 season.

Team Name: The Champs¹
Last Year's Record: 2009 Champions²
Key Losses: Trevor Ariza
Key Additions: Ron Artest

Q1: What significant moves were made during the off-season?

A1: No new information here, even for those not really following the Lakers. I think the entire world knows that the Lakers signed Ron Artest while letting Trevor Ariza walk; each went to the other's team, and they signed for essentially the same price, which is why many are referring to it as a de-facto trade. It was the only player personnel move made by the Lakers since winning the 2009 Championship.

The question is, was it the smart move? You know most of the arguments, and we've discussed it here at SS&R several times, so we'll skip over the basics: Artest is potentially dramatic and volatile, he uses more possessions less efficiently, and Ariza fit the Lakers' system. Some consider Ariza to be the better defender, and being absurdly wrong is absolutely their prerogative. Blah, blah, blah. So let's talk about a few things that either (a) haven't been mentioned much in this Ariza vs. Artest discussion, or (b) have come to light in 8 preseason games and 1 regular season game in a way that wasn't previously very apparent:

Artest can be a beast on the inside. That's not necessarily a new insight — Henry Abbott was one of the first to point out that the Lakers would have a starting line-up chock full of excellent post-up players, and it has been repeated many times since that for that reason, the Lakers would likely be a slower team on offense, this year. But after a few games, it's a point that nonetheless needs to be reiterated. He is so big and strong that he can simply be a factor in the paint in ways that Ariza could never dream of. His post-up game is half traditional post-up, half bull-in-a-china-shop charging at the hoop, but either way, it seems quite effective. Even in a single game, there are numerous occasions on which Artest does something close to the basket where you think, "Wow, Ariza could not have done that."
Here's something that was either unexpected or overlooked in pre-analyzing this Artest-Ariza trade: Artest is a much, much better passer — both in/from the post, and in general. Specifically, his ability to be a playmaker for his teammates close to the basket is quickly jumping out as something that we hadn't foreseen, but are already loving. Sure, he has the ability to draw the defense in the paint and kick out to shooters, but even more deliciously, he has shown an ability to create havoc off of penetration, and then find an open Bynum or Odom (and add Gasol to that, once he's back) for a layup or dunk, before the defense even realizes what happened.
In general, Ron Ron is a much better passer than Ariza. Last night, we noted more than one occasion on which, in perfect triangle execution, Ron got the ball in the mid- or high-post and then hit a cutting teammate on the way to the basket with a picture perfect, Tex Winter-approved pass for deep penetration, usually leading to a layup or dunk. These crisp passing skills, which he seems already able to utilize well in the triangle offense, are another aspect of his game that we may have undervalued. It will take more time for him to learn when he needs to make cuts in the triangle offense, and where to — but when he gets the ball in a post-up position and other players make their cuts around him, he seems like a natural fit for this system.
Most importantly, his mindset has been tremendous, thus far. If anything, he is looking to pass too much. He is not looking first for his own shots, but is making defense and playmaking his main priorities while on the floor. At the same time, he is able to anchor the second string in much the same way that Odom does — and so far, he has been very effective in that role. As always, this just gives Phil Jackson more options, greater flexibility, and more versatility.

It's a long season, but at this very early point, all signs are positive, and it seems as though this "trade" should be not just an upgrade for the Lakers, but a very big one.

Q2: What are the team's biggest strengths?

A2: As mentioned, the post game has now become a huge weapon for the Lakers. For one, they're simply bigger, longer, and stronger than you. I mean, Ron Artest is our Small Foward, okay? Meanwhile, Kobe Bryant — already perhaps the most skilled post player in the NBA, pound-for-pound — worked with Hakeen "The Dream" Olajuwon over the summer, and if the first game of the season is any indication, he is looking to his post game more than ever. Even Derek Fisher, fairly large and strong compared to many of the leagues smaller, quicker point guards, will get occasional post-up opportunities.

This means that the entire Lakers starting unit can be a post threat — and that's with Lamar Odom coming off the bench. This should equate to high points in the paint totals and plenty of drawn fouls.

Versatility and depth are the Lakers other strengths. And you know what? I'm just going to say it — talent is another major strength of ours. Four of the Lakers starting five either are current All-Stars, or have been in the past. They're likely to send three to the All-Star Game this year, and that's with All-Star caliber players Lamar Odom and Ron Artest staying home. This team is not just deep, it's deep in top level talent. Though Phil Jackson isn't likely to use it very often, the Lakers could even put Kobe at point and run an All-Star lineup of Kobe, Ron Ron, LO, Pau Gasol, and Andrew Bynum.

Meanwhile, we still expect significant improvement from our bench over last year. Look also for Phil Jackson to sometimes run what we might refer to as the "1.5 Unit" — half bench, half starters. With so much talent, PJ can utilize an entire array of options in creating lineups.

The versatility, in large part, goes back to the Lakers strengths in the post. Bynum and Gasol are obvious post threats. However, Odom and Artest can also be very effective in the post, and Kobe isn't too shabby. This allows for a greater range of options, both in terms of lineups and offensive sets, regarding who anchors the triangle in the post, and how the triangle forms around him. Defensively, guys like Artest and Odom can easily guard three different positions, meaning that whether we're talking about a big, strong Small Forward like LeBron James, or a long, lanky Power Forward who likes to shoot from outside like Dirk Nowitzki or Rasheed Wallace, the Lakers have options in matching up with them defensively.

Q3: What are the team's biggest weaknesses?

A3: The point guard position is a relative weakness for the Lakers, mostly on the defensive end of the court, and the bench is a question mark, at this point.

I'm honestly not as worried about Derek Fisher at the point as some. Lakers fans fret to no end over penetration by quick, little point guards like Chris Paul and Aaron Brooks. Frankly, I don't think it's that big a concern, for two reasons. First, the Lakers won the 2009 Championship with Derek at the point, and though he sometimes struggled with the Aaron Brooks of the NBA world, in the end we were sorry for our outrage at his continued involvement, humbled by Phil Jackson's great insight, and glad he had left Fish in the game (and not listened to us). Simply put, with a team this strong in every other area, we can afford to be "just okay" at the point — especially when "just okay" equals one of the best floor leaders and clutch shooters in the game.

Second, I tend to accept a fair amount of quick guard penetration as inevitable. Because of the NBA's current perimeter defense rules, it's basically impossible to stop penetration by quick guards. The bigger concern should not be preventing penetration; that is not possible. The bigger concern should be how the interior help defense responds to said inevitable penetration. In this regard, the Lakers were much improved last year over 2007-08, and a strong, healthy, active Andrew Bynum patrolling the paint on defense should further strengthen them there. This where Bynum needs to take ownership and responsibility on defense, declare the paint his own, and see not only the Shaqs and Howards of the NBA as personal challenges, but the Brooks and Pauls, too.

The bench, on the other hand, is still a big question mark. The potential is there for them to be one of the best reserve units in the league, even capable of hanging with many starting units at times. However, that was not the case last year, and it certainly wasn't the case in the season opener. (Note: Don't read too much into the season opener, as Pau Gasol's absence brought Lamar Odom into the starting lineup, leaving the bench without either a significant stabilizing presence or a player who can create shots for himself and his teammates. Once Gasol returns, Odom and Artest will probably share that role, to a degree, and I expect much better things from the bench as a result.) Jordan Farmar never fully recuperated from injury, from which he probably came back too quickly. Machine's shot took a sabatical. Shannon Brown was a late-season addition. The coaching staff have been working gingerly to slowly get Adam Morrison back to productive form. Josh Powell is a solid rebounder and mid-range shooter, and one of the few that didn't devolve into nothingness last year.

All of these are areas in which the Lakers' bench can improve, and there's just as much reason to think that they will as there is to think that they won't. Nonetheless, the second unit has to be considered a weakness until it proves itself a strength, because as a group they disappeared so thoroughly last year.

Q4: What are the goals for this team?

A4: The cliché thing these days is obviously to say, "Anything short of a championship has to be considered a disappointment." So, how about this: Anything short of major disappointment in San Antonio, Cleveland, Boston, and Orlando has to be considered a disappointment.

No? Okay, well let's get let's cheesy and more concrete with this. The goal is to repeat as champions, and that presents a number of other goals:

To manage the season, staying on top while having enough left come May.
To successfully integrate Ron Artest, and to adapt to the ways in which the offense and defense will change with his arrival.
To manage all drama and distraction — with Lamar now a tabloid favorite and Ron Ron his same Crazy Pills self, drama and distraction cannot be avoided. Thankfully, this is L.A., and we've always been great at dealing with it and winning anyways.
To avoid injury — and, hand in hand with that goal, to see Andrew Bynum build momentum in a season uninterrupted by injury, finally emerging as an elite post player.

Unofficially, several players seem to be shooting for the 70-wins goal, and maybe even 73. This could be both a good and bad thing — good in that a goal like that might keep them from complacency, but bad in that this team needs to worry less about over-exerting itself in the pursuit of regular season goals, and more about positioning itself for another championship run in the spring.

As observers and commentators on the Lakers and this 2009-10 season, I think I speak for most of us when I say that, at least at this point, 70+ wins is NOT one of our goals/hopes for this team.

Q5: What makes the Lakers more likely to win the championship than the other challengers?

A5: I've said this recently, but it bears repeating. The Lakers have the greatest potential for improvement among the five teams considered legitimate championship contenders; at the same time, they have the lowest foreseeable potential for failure.

The return of KG, and the additions of 'Sheed Wallace and several solid bench players could give this team the defensive intensity of 2008 with extra firepower and depth to boot; on the other hand, another injury to KG and they're out of the running, and that's without even mentioning the odds of one of the other Green Geezers getting injured (the "Big 4" are all in their mid-30s).

The Cavs added Shaq, but he didn't look nearly as good as he needed to last night (a game in which he should have been extremely motivated). Meanwhile, there have been so many other roster changes, and they would have to outlast four other elite teams while at the same time completely retooling — a task made much more difficult by the departure of Kuester, their offensive coordinator who is already sorely missed, after just one game.

The Magic are young, and Vince Carter is an upgrade, but he's a manageable threat for Kobe and Artest, and the Lakers still possess the matchup advantages. Meanwhile, they've changed enough that it might not work for them, and there is a lot of doubt that they can get past the retooled Celtics and Cavs.

The Spurs are potentially more susceptible to injury and age than even the Celtics, and even when healthy, the Lakers have all the matchup advantages, and it's doubtful that the Spurs can match the Lakers in the frontcourt.

For the Lakers, the three main areas of potential improvement are also the three main areas of potential failure. First, Ron Artest could be a huge upgrade over Ariza, or he could be a disappointing distraction. Second, Andrew Bynum could remain healthy and morph into a beast under the basket, or he could go down again and force us to do it without him for a third time around. Third, the bench could return to their 2008 form, or they could be just as frustrating as they were last year.

But for all of the other four challengers, if the reality is reflects more of the negatives listed here than the positives, they're probably done. For the Lakers, even if they don't improve in all three of these key areas, they're still the same team that won the 2009 Championship. Meanwhile, if all three of these factors become areas of significant improvement for the Lakers, they their ceiling is far beyond those of the other teams, even on their best days. Not convinced? Consider this: Take off the best player on each team, and only the Lakers is still a strong playoff team.

Of the five contenders, the Lakers have the highest ceiling and also the greatest margin of error. Their likely downsides represent the least potential for failure. That is why the Lakers are favorites to win the championship (again) in 2010.

Projected Finish: 2010 NBA Champions³

¹ Or: The Los Angeles Lakers, The Lake Show
² Or: 65-17 regular season, 16-6 playoffs, 81-23 overall
³ Or: 69-13 regular season, 16-5 playoffs, 85-18 overall, NBA Champs

Game Preview: Los Angeles Clippers

C.A. Clark — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 19:11:39 -0000

More photos » by Mark J. Terrill - AP

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Just a few short hours from now, your World Champion Los Angeles Lakers will finally take the court for the opening game of the regular season. Despite the fact that our fan base had a shorter summer than all the others, I think everyone would agree with me that it has been too long. For me, the months between an old season's ending and a new season's beginning pass like gall stones, slow and painful, and nothing can be better than the return of the NBA to my life.

So, without further ado, here are some quick thoughts regarding the Lakers and their upcoming opponents in tonight's contest, our cross-arena foes, the Los Angeles Clippers.

How do the two teams look coming into tonight's contest?

Since both teams have identical 0-0 records coming into the game, there isn't a whole lot to say about how the teams have fared recently. But I guess they play those preseason games for a reason, so we'll glean what we can from the 0th season. The Clippers had a very successful preseason, going 6-2 with standout victories against the Spurs, Hornets, Jazz, Trailblazers, and of course, Maccabi Tel Aviv. Since Israel is a couple seasons away from having an NBA franchise, it's clear that the actual results of these games don't matter. However, there are a few things that can be learned about the Clippers this season.

Baron Davis is in fantastic shape. I have no idea whether his new fitness regime will translate to him deciding to actually drive to the basket instead of simply hoisting another 3 point shot. I have no idea if his new found figure is a commitment to turning the Clippers into a successful team, or just part of his master plan to get more sponsorships for diet plans. But Davis has shown in the past that he can be an elite player when his heart is into it, and if his commitment to fitness this season is any indication, he's ready to reaffirm his elite status.
What about the rest of his team? They were a motley group last season, thrown into a funk by the betrayal of Elton Brand, and coached into the 7th circle of hell by Mike Dunleavy. I don't ever remember a team quitting on the season as early as the Clippers seemed to ... or was that just Baron Davis. Regardless, the Clippers have a fair amount of talent. Kaman has shown that he's one of the few true centers in the league, and he's got a decent array of post moves. Eric Gordan looks like a real winner. And Blake Griffin has shown glimpses of a tremendous amount of athleticism and ability. In short, the Clippers future is bright ... or at least it would be, if they weren't cursed worse than the Pirates of the Caribbean. Which brings us to our next point.
Blake Griffin blew out his knee. Not to get to Simmons-esque on you here, but what percentage of people saw Blake Griffin's inevitable injury coming? 50%? 80%? 100%? Simmons himself predicted it. As tragic as it is, there can't be a single person surprised by it. Clippers fans should unfortunately know better than to believe in their team. There is always something that will screw up this franchise. If they aren't willing to do it themselves with poor play, poor coaching, and poor personnel decisions, then God has repeatedly proven to be willing to pick up the slack in keeping the Clippers' franchise down. It brings me no joy to see this happen to that franchise time and time again. I'd love for the Clippers to be good. If nothing else, a serious cross-town rivalry would add a unique flair to our experiences as fans. But the writing is on the wall, and its been there for the entirety of the Clippers existence.

After the jump, some Lakers thoughts, and the matchups for tonight's game.

We've already given you much more information than you needed to know about how the Lakers look coming into this season, so these thoughts are specifically related to what should be a special night in Staples Center

The main event for Lakers fans tonight isn't even the game itself, but the ring ceremony which will precede the game. We already know just how special this championship was for the team, especially the team leaders: Phil Jackson, Derek Fisher, and of course, Kobe Bryant. While it won't have quite the same magical feel to it as when the team held up the Larry O'Brien while Kobe lifted his first Finals MVP, tonight will be a re-affirmation of all the hard work the Lakers went through last year, and it should be a relatively emotional night. Besides, any time you get a chance to see ridiculous amounts of bling, it's always a good time.
There's a potential for a letdown tonight, with the double dose of getting championship rings and playing the lowly Clippers. But it's the first game of the season, a season in which the Lakers know a very strong start is mandatory in order for them to set the pace for the rest of the league, so it seems nearly impossible that the Lakers start the season off flat.
Pau Gasol might miss tonight's season opener. It's a game time decision, but it looks more and more likely that El Spaniard will sit this one out. Since the Clips front line is also depleted with the loss of Griffin, it shouldn't cause too much trouble for the Lakers tonight

Matchups

With Griffin out, the Clippers will likely move Marcus Camby into the starting lineup, giving the Clippers a starting 5 of Baron Davis, Eric Gordan, Rasual Butler, Marcus Camby, and Chris Kaman. The obvious strength of the lineup is the backcourt, as Davis and Gordan are probably the two best players on the team, without Griffin. Assuming Gasol also doesn't play, the Lakers will trot out Derek Fisher, Kobe Bryant, Ron Artest, Lamar Odom, and Andrew Bynum. It's the first game of the season, so forgive me for not knowing exactly what kind of rotations the teams will use, but the Clippers are likely to bring Ricky Davis, Al Thornton, Anthony Roberson, and Craig Smith (who absolutely killed the Lakers in the preseason) off the bench. For the Lakers, you'll see the usual suspects, Farmar, Brown, Vujacic, Walton, and a little bit of Mbenga and Powell thrown in for good measure.

Obviously, the matchups favor the Lakers, since they have a pretty large talent advantage over the Clippers. With Gasol out, you can count on a large early dose of feeding Bynum in the post and on the secondary fast break to start the game. The coaches will be looking to set Bynum up with the same kind of starts he's been seeing all preseason, and it should come as no surprise if Bynum is in double figures by the end of the 1st quarter. Other then that, Odom should have a significant speed advantage over who ever is guarding him, as the Clippers don't have any other athletic 4s waiting behind Griffin. The Clips also don't have an elite perimeter defender, so Kobe will get whatever Kobe wants, or the Clips will be forced to double team, leaving wide open shots for the rest of the team. The only matchup that will cause the Lakers problems is the point guard position. Baron Davis' new, svelte, body should have no problem getting by Fisher's old bones, and it'll be important for Odom and Bynum to protect the rim without picking up fouls, because foul trouble for either one causes the Lakers to have to use Josh Powell or DJ Mbenga for significant amounts of time, and the drop off in talent there is tremendous. Also, Kobe needs to just stay home on his man tonight. I don't like Gordon's chances to blow by Kobe, but if Kobe leaves his man, Gordon will drain the open 3.

Off the bench, it'll be important for Powell (or Walton if the Lakers go smaller) to focus all of his energy on boxing out Craig Smith so that Smith doesn't repeat his ridiculous preseason line of 26-7 in 22 minutes. Other than that, the Clippers bench looks pretty ugly, and the Lakers bench should theoretically have an easy time dominating this rag-tag group. In other interesting bench news, tonight will be our first real glimpse of how PJ intends to handle the rotation in a game that actually counts. After the questions about Ron Artest fitting in, and Bynum achieving results in line with his potential, the bench rotations qualify as the 3rd biggest question surrounding the team this year. Who's the first guard off the bench? Do the Lakers go small with Brown and Farmar together? Do they go really small with Brown, Farmar, and Sasha? These questions won't be answered definitively tonight, but we'll at least catch a first glimpse of reality instead of grasping at straws from meaningless preseason games.

In the end, this should be a comfortable Lakers victory, and I expect nothing less on Ring Night.

FYI, since it's the first night of the season, and there happens to be a pretty fantastic opening game, and we'd like to give you all the time you need to re-adjust to live blogging the games, our game thread will start with the first game at 5 P.M.

Power Forward Positional Preview

DexterFishmore — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 15:00:24 -0000

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There's something you need to prepare yourself for. We all need to prepare for it. Fans, players, rich and powerful bloggers... all of us connected with the Los Angeles Lakers are going to see our view of the world soon rearranged in a way that no one has really started talking about.

It mightn't be easy for people to accept. To be honest, it's likely to be a bit awkward and emotional. But it's going to happen, and I'm here to assure you that it's not necessarily a bad thing.

Sometime soon - within the next three seasons, I'm willing to bet - Kobe Bryant will no longer be the best player on the Lakers. That accolade will instead belong to Senor Pau Gasol.

When you think about it, this really isn't such a big-... *dodges rocks thrown at head*... hey, knock it off! There's no need to get viol-... *takes cinderblock to face*... gah, those edges are sharp! *runs and hides behind couch like little baby*

Just let me explain, OK?

What I'm talking about here is age. The great march of time that ravages us all. As Chris pointed out in his preview of the shooting-guard position, Kobe is now 31. Although his decline phase hasn't really kicked in yet and will likely be a gentle downward glide path when it does, it will indeed commence sooner than any of us would like. It happens to everyone, right? Take me, for example. I, too, am in my 30s, and I realize that sometime in the near future I'll simply be too old to attend high school proms. Which is fine, it really is! We should all endeavor to age gracefully, even at the cost of one's social life.

Pau Gasol

Pau is two years younger than Kobe and entirely capable of making up for any slippage in the latter's game. Already established as one of the league's top power forwards before the 2008-09 season began, he put together a dazzling campaign that solidified his standing as a true megatalent. If his numbers have never quite reached the heights of a Kevin Garnett or Dirk Nowitzki, he's nonetheless a better fit for the Lakers' system than would be anyone else from the power-forward pantheon.

What became clear as last year wore on is that the Triangle works best, and is at times unstoppable, when it operates Pau-centrically. His height, vision and passing touch can dice up even the best defenses, as we saw in the Finals against Orlando. He has McHale/Duncan-caliber post moves and a gentle, accurate shooting touch out to the free-throw line. Every Laker should have a GET THE BALL TO PAU screensaver installed on his laptop.

Defensively, Gasol has the length and quick-twitch agility to harass opposing big men of all varieties. If Andrew Bynum is healthy - please pause to perform a superstitious ritual of your choosing - Pau won't have to guard opposing centers nearly so much as he has done, but he's proven that he can handle the work if necessary. (See: Howard, Dwight.) He can also handle "Stretch Fours" a la Sheed and Dirk, although the Lakers' defensive structure keeps him pretty close to the paint most of the time.

At 29 years old, Pau isn't likely to get significantly better than he already is, so it's not reasonable to think that there's, say, an MVP award in his future. What he is, though, is awfully damn good. He'd be the best player on about 20 teams, and he should still be performing at this level in a couple years, when Kobe will begin the transition to second-banana status. (Pau's contract expires in the summer of 2011, but I can't imagine Jerry Buss not extending him.)

Hey, I know it'll be weird - publicly and spiritually, the Lakers will be Kobe's team for as long as he's around - but there's no shame in ceding the limelight to a big man this magnificently talented. The transition will be subtle and possibly unacknowledged, but rest assured we'll remain in good hands.

Lamar Odom

Hey, anyone know what Lamar's been up to this offseason? I don't think I've seen him in the news even once... guess he's been keeping to himself. Anyhow, he's back with the Lakers on a new contract after a smooth and uneventful negotiation with the team.

Every person reading this - all 12 million of you - has at one point felt massively frustrated with Lamar's play. You know what, though? He really does kick ass at basketball. With a wildly athletic 6'10" frame, he can function at a high level anywhere on the court, and like Gasol his multiplicity of talents suggest that he was genetically engineered to play in the Triangle. He can either catalyze the second-unit offense or, as he did in Cleveland last year, morph werewolf-style into a low-post scoring and rebounding menace.

If you are an opponent of the Lakers, there is simply no hiding from Lamar Odom.

Admittedly, I'm not crazy about his three-point shooting. He's hit 31% from range on his career, and you should definitely not expect anything like the insane 51% he hit in the playoffs last year. He'd be a more efficient offensive player if his shot selection were heavier on two-point attempts. But this is quibbling. Odom is a terrific player, and that the Lakers bring him off the bench as their sixth man is kind of obscene.

Josh Powell

Any PF playing time not claimed by Gasol or Odom will fall to Old Man Powell. (He's actually only 26, but "Old Man Powell" has a fun ring to it, in a Scooby-Doo Villain kind of way.) Powell isn't that good, but he's cheap and doesn't steal yogurt out of the company fridge. Also he makes money for playing sports, which compared to yours truly makes him History's Greatest Human.

Look, all you really need to know is, if Powell plays more than 10 minutes a game this year, it means there's either been a horrible run of injuries to the Laker frontcourt, or Lamar's wife mistook him for a baked ham and ate him in his sleep.

Outlook: Ready to Rock

Hardly anyone has the talent to hang with the Lakers at the power-forward pozishe. The Mavs' Nowitzki-Shawn Marion combo is pretty tasty, and Garnett and Sheed (if healthy and motivated, as applicable) would make Boston a formidable Finals opponent. But Gasol and Odom are elite performers at the height of their careers, operating in a system that exploits their skills to near-perfection. There's no reason to think they won't treat us to another season or three of championship-caliber work.

In other words: all systems go.

(Can I come out from behind the couch now?)