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Spoiler Alert: Me and My Memphis Grizzlies

djturtleface — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 03:38:16 -0000

More photos » by Steve Helber - AP

Memphians are flocking to see their new but injured superstar Allen Iverson, but as long as they temper their expectations they should see a whole lot more than A.I. from this young team. (AP Photo/Steve Helber)

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The Memphis Grizzlies were supposed to be the final 'Spoiler Alert' -- saving best for last or something like that. But they've ended up right here, pretty much smack dab in the middle of the lineup. I'd like to note that I'm still very much committed to finishing the series, problem is that I won't be around to do it. Learn why and read the longest freaking Memphis Grizzlies preview on the internets over the jump.

On Thursday your favorite Grizzlies blogger will be on a long flight to the Balkans for an in-semester college study abroad. That's why I'll be doing the Grizzlies preview early, I don't want to just leave all my small but hardy fanbase out in the cold. And I should still be around on occasion, posting periodically, albeit likely in brief spurts. The reality of the matter, however, is that the bulk of content will be either automated or run by written by a new partner.

Said new partner isn't written in stone, but it should be someone that you all are now somewhat familiar with from past posts. He'll do a great job, and should be around even after my return, which will be November 5th -- just five games into the season and one day before a contest against the NBA Champion Lakers.

Glad to have that out of the way. Now let's get down to business -- here is your 2009-2010 Memphis Grizzlies preview in extended 'Spoiler Alert' format.

Preview

The funny thing about a stick of dynamite is that it pretty much always looks like it's ready to explode. Keep that bit of advice in mind as you continue to read.

The Memphis Grizzlies made two different types of additions this season. First, the rookies. The Grizzlies drafted Hasheem Thabeet, who I've openly lamented and insulted in the past and warmed up to in the now, second overall, then went on to take forwards DeMarre Carroll and Sam Young with their next two picks. I believe the draft was one of the best in the NBA despite a pretty weak class, and the Carroll-Young combo has the potential to be the Grizzlies defense-offense bench of the future.

The second set of acquisitions were a tad bit more controversial, and by a tad bit I mean they were damn near as controversial as it gets in the NBA. First the Grizzlies traded Darko Milicic for Quentin Richardson, who then went on a merry-go-round through the NBA, for Zach Randolph. And we all know Zach Randolph. Then the Grizzlies signed walking media magnet Allen Iverson, who's been dancing between wise veteran, distraction, and too hurt to know what the hell he actually is.

Playing with Zach Randolph is a tad bit like playing with a safety valve that's a tiny bit too wide -- as in it sucks everything in and spits it straight back out. You could feed Randolph with every possession and he would use every single one if you wanted him too, and he'd probably shoot about 45% from the field while doing it. Problem is you can't really win many basketball games that way.

And we have no idea what playing with Allen Iverson is like. It used to be pretty cool if you were Eric Snow and hated shooting. Chances are that it's not so cool if you're O.J. Mayo, Rudy Gay, or Zach Randolph, who all like to get involved in the offense, which means shoot the ball every chance they get. Last season it was a little more like playing with an angry wasp with no stinger. He still looked menacing, but was more of an annoyance then a legitimate threat.

As far as losses go, the Memphis Grizzlies gave away one of their best players in terms of PER in Hakim Warrick. This was a stupid loss. There were no minutes around for Warrick, but he is a talent with legitimate value. You have to hold onto him and make a trade. Otherwise there were no other losses of great importance -- Quinton Ross, Darius Miles, and Greg Buckner all made ignominious exits, thanks for nothing ya'll.

Fantasy Preview

Breakout- Nobody- With Zach Randolph stealing rebounds from Marc Gasol, and Hasheem Thabeet stealing some time, I don't see a second year breakout. With Iverson stealing isolation looks from O.J. and Rudy, I don't see either meaningfully increasing their statistics. And with both A.I. and O.J. clamoring to bring it up the floor because they too are "point guards," I don't see Mike Conley being much better than an end of the roster contributor.

Bust- Rudy Gay, Allen Iverson- Don't let anyone fool you, I don't see either of these players putting up significantly better stats than they did last season, but both will get drafted ahead of their position on the player rater at the end of the season. The Grizzlies just might boast five fantasy worthy guys, but none of them look to be better than a top 40 player, which isn't good news for owners.

Useful- O.J. Mayo, Zach Randolph, and Mike Conley- Again don't look for a breakout. If Randolph is healthy he could, theoretically, break the top 50, and he's usually great trade bait for less wise fantasy players who salivate over the 20-10 points and rebounds. That makes him draftable, but not a real target. Look for O.J. Mayo to basically duplicate his rookie season stats in a per 36 sense, with a potential boost in assists and field goal percentage. The problem is that fantasy stats aren't calculated by per 36, which means that a minutes drop will offset any gains and might actually reduce his value. Finally Mike Conley seemed poised to break out this season, but Iverson is almost undoubtedly going to depress his value.

Offensively

The Grizzlies are stacked with weapons on offense. The problem is that none of them are standouts. Allen Iverson used to be, Rudy Gay was supposed to be, Zach Randolph thinks he is, and O.J. Mayo isn't there yet. So while the Grizzlies have a whole bunch of scorer, they also have a whole bunch of players who are probably better suited to be second or third options, or a spark-plug off the bench.

Now this approach has worked in the past, for instance on the Pistons of yore. With Rip Hamilton, Chauncey Billups, Rasheed Wallace, and Tayshaun Prince (in order of offensive importance) the Pistons rode a bunch of solid offensive players to dominating the Eastern Conference during the pre-James to early-James era. The difference is that the Pistons were expertly coached and had a near legendary floor general in Billups.

Mike Conley might be a better passer than Billups, but he's certainly not better at commanding the game. For this approach to be successful somebody is going to have to assert themselves as the player who decides who shoots. Allen Iverson is too prone to calling his own number, O.J. Mayo isn't an NBA point yet, and again Mike Conley won't be in the position to take control.

So despite having a ton of weapons, a realistic take means that the Grizzlies will probably struggle with chemistry on offense all season. I still like them to outplay their offense last season, which was borderline atrocious, but the pundits are probably right in assuming that this team won't maximize their talents. "Skill overlap" is the buzz phrase for this season's Grizzlies, who will commonly have too many isolation players on the floor at any given time during the season.

And this problem might only be compounded by running the fast break offense. This strategy typically requires a steady hand at both point and shooting guard. The Grizzlies have that, but Rudy Gay is really their only finisher. Breaking teams definitely are better off with athleticism at both forward slots, and maybe even with a bit at center for good measure. Running constantly will get the fans out of their seats and get the Grizzlies a bunch more points this season, but I'm not convinced that their efficiency will benefit significantly.

Defensively

This is not an area where the Grizzlies will have to worry about skill overlap. The Grizzlies really have a limited amount of defensive talent, especially in their starting unit. Mike Conley is acceptable, O.J. Mayo is generally considered below average with potential, Rudy Gay is in the same situation, Zach Randolph is known to be especially useless on defense, and Marc Gasol is definitely below average for a starter. This unit is really quite bad defensively, though they should rebound well.

The second unit is better balanced. DeMarre Carroll has shown extreme willingness to play tough as nails, Sam Young is acceptable, Darrell Arthur brings energy but is limited technically, and Hasheem Thabeet somehow became an underrated defender despite being drafted solely as a defensive stopper. Both Iverson and Marcus Williams are question marks, but should be pretty decent. Unlike the first team, this unit has capable stoppers, but will struggle on the boards.

But the funny thing about this defense is that it could go both ways, particularly if the Grizzlies stick to their plan of running the floor. If you think back to the 'We Believe' Golden State Warriors, they similarly had a team of sub-par defenders who oftentimes looked lost and helpless. But counter-intuitively they were really a decent defensive team, mainly because they rebounded and gambled on steals that turned into very, very easy offense. If the Grizzlies follow this model they could be a surprisingly efficient defensive team.

Predictions

ESPN: 25-57, Hollinger 27-55: Are you surprised that ESPN isn't high on this team? They're not exactly the image of stability or reliability. You see experts don't like to take many huge chances -- perhaps rightly so, because they can't really be blamed for it with this Grizzlies team. Yes, yes, they're being particularly harsh, but they do have a point. It isn't often that a bunch of unproven misfits come together and make a big splash in there first season.

Still don't they have to make a bigger splash then this? Thinking back to the dynamite metaphor, by definition an explosion has to create some noise, right? I think so. This team barely lost anything in the offseason -- failing to trade Hakim Warrick was more of a no gain than an actual loss since he would have created a major logjam for Sam Young, Darrell Arthur, and DeMarre Carroll. I mean, really, how could this team have only added between one and three wins?

Sometimes I feel like the experts spend so much time watching the good teams that they lose perspective on just how bad your team needs to be to only win 27 games. Last year the Grizzlies barely had three NBA caliber starters. They had Mike Conley and Kyle Lowry in a platoon, both playing fairly effectively but providing no leadership. They had Rudy Gay and O.J. Mayo; these two were starters, but aren't ready to be focal points of an offense, and certainly aren't ready to face consistent double teaming. Darrell Arthur was not a starting caliber player. Marc Gasol was solid on offense and decent rebounding, but useless defensively.

This season Conley, Mayo, Gay, and Gasol have all not only matured but also improved tangibly. Conley clearly shoots better. Mayo is moving the ball more often, though he's turning it over too often. Rudy Gay is stronger and better prepared to drive consistently, which is necessary for a team's best slasher. Marc Gasol dropped weight, presumably to play the pick and roll better.

And as bad as Zach Randolph can be at times, there's no way he's worse than Arthur was on either end of the floor last season, and there is no way he's as physically incapable of defending as Hakim Warrick. He isn't great and his stats are inflated well over his actual value, but he's much better than what the Grizzlies had. Last season the Grizzlies didn't have much in the way of guard play off the bench -- even Marko Jaric had to play. This season A.I. might fill too much need, but at least he's filling needs.

I don't think me or any other Grizzlies fan is asking for the world here; I'm asking for respectability. I don't want to see the other team's scrubs beating our starters at the end of games. I don't want to see decent play for half a game followed by a blowout third and fourth quarter; I want to see a team that is trying to win.

And I think that I'll be rewarded for my dedication. This season's Grizzlies don't even need to climb all the way into the playoffs, but they need to get their foot on the first rung of the ladder. This season's Grizzlies will be a stick of dynamite in both senses. Some nights they'll look god awful, other nights explosive, most nights they'll just look like themselves -- mostly dormant but constantly dangerous.

My Predictions: 34-48

Poll

How many games will the Grizzlies win this season?

Under 20 wins.

13 votes

Between 20 and 27 wins.

24 votes

Between 28 and 34 wins.

40 votes

Between 35 an and 42 wins.

43 votes

Between 42 and 48 wins.

12 votes

Over 48 wins.

9 votes

141 votes | Poll has closed

Let's Keep Quentin Richardson on the Move, Shall We?

Ben Q Rock — Wed, 22 Jul 2009 13:00:20 -0000

More photos » by Fernando Medina - NBAE/Getty Images

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Monday afternoon, the Los Angeles Clippers and the Minnesota Timberwolves engaged in a fairly inconsequential trade. You can read more analysis at Clips Nation and Canis Hoopus, but the gist is this: L.A. shipped Quentin Richardson to Minnesota, receiving Sebastian Telfair, Craig Smith, and Mark Madsen. In Telfair, the Clippers have a solid backup point guard to Baron Davis, while Smith adds depth to a fairly beefy front-line which already includes Marcus Camby, Chris Kaman, and #1 draft pick Blake Griffin. Minnesota? It gains Richardson's $8.7 million expiring contract while simultaneously filling a void at shooting guard and small forward, a void created when it dealt Mike Miller and Randy Foye to Washington for the 5th overall selection in this year's draft. Two lottery teams are now slightly deeper and better off financially. So why do we care?

Because it's, frankly, amusing that Richardson has changed teams three times in the last three weeks. New York, for which he's played the last 3 seasons, traded him to Memphis for Darko Milicic. The Grizzlies, in turn, sent him to L.A. for Zach Randolph. Now, he's Minnesota-bound. The novelty of a career role-player being a hot commodity on the trade market appeals to us irony-craving folks, especially in the doldrums of the NBA offseason, with few marquee free agents left to sign and with most contenders having already filled out their rosters.

Richardson's third move in three weeks blew up the NBA Twitterverse. Richardson (@QRich), for his part, is taking his latest move in stride:

Round and round I go on this NBA tour. Where o where will it stop no one knows. Lol. Right now I'm a t'wolf. Tomorrow? Who knows? Lol.

So it is in that spirit we suggest ways to get Richardson to the 26 teams of which he hasn't been a part this summer, with commentary on select trades. It all follows the jump.

to Atlanta for Jamal Crawford

The Hawks themselves just acquired Crawford, and he fits coach Mike Woodson's "type" as an undersized shooting guard who can shoot from distance, so it's doubtful they'd give him up. Then again, with no progress in their hopes to re-sign Marvin Williams, their starting small forward and a restricted free agent, they could pull the trigger on this deal for Richardson and hope to explore sign-and-trade avenues with Williams.
to Boston for Kendrick Perkins and Brian Scalabrine

Nope, I can't even reach for a basketball reason here: the Celtics have no need for Richardson, nor would they be inclined to part with Perkins, an outstanding post defender whose NBA experience (364 games over 6 seasons) belies his age (24).
to Charlotte for Boris Diaw

Not much of a reason for Charlotte to unload Diaw if all it's getting is Richardson, although it might enjoy divesting itself of Diaw's deal. The Bobcats have a lot of long-term money committed to mediocre players, so losing Diaw--although he's an above-average player--might be worth the financial flexibility down the line.
to Chicago for Kirk Hinrich

Well, Richardson's a finished product, so I'm not sure why the Bulls would want him. They tend to be more interested in younger players whose growth they can stunt, am I right, Matt and Kelly? Zing!
to Cleveland for Daniel Gibson and Delonte West

Yup, it'd be crazy for the Cavs, a championship contender, to part with two decent, young combo guards. Clearly, they're not worried about saving money, having traded for Shaquille O'Neal (owed $20 million) last month. But sources did tell Marc Stein last week not to be surprised if the Cavs traded West this season... wait for it... in order to save money.
to Dallas for Greg Buckner and Matt Carroll

Hey, the Mavs can add another thirtysomething to their rotation! Buckner, 32, has the age, but won't play for Dallas. Richardson? He could conceivably see the floor as a situational shooter, and will turn 30 in April. As a bonus, he could join homophonically named Quinton Ross on the roster.
to Denver for Nene
to Detroit for Tayshaun Prince
to Golden State for Stephen Jackson and Marco Belinelli

Jackson is a favorite of Ws owner Chris Cohan, which is why he got a hefty extension last season despite still having a few years left on his deal as it was. Given how awful the Warriors are now, it's probable that even Cohan would be willing to part with Jackson's silly deal in exchange for Richardson's cap relief. Plus, Richardson's three-point marksmanship--he's a career 39.8% shooter from beyond the arc--would blend well with Golden State's trey-happy offense.
to Houston for Brent Barry and Shane Battier

Houston will likely hit the lottery this season, having lost Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady for the duration. Richardson's expiring deal would give Rockets GM Daryl Morey plenty of flexibility next summer. Morey? With options? Frightening, and that's not me being pithy.
to Indiana for Jamaal Tinsley
to the L.A. Lakers for Adam Morrison and Sasha Vujacic
to Miami for Mark Blount and Yakhouba Diawara
to Milwaukee for Charlie Bell and Dan Gadzuric
to New Jersey for Keyon Dooling, Jarvis Hayes, and Eduardo Najera
to New Orleans for Rasual Butler and Morris Peterson

This potential trade is notable for its being comprised entirely of three players who Tweet regularly. We previously linked Richardson's account. Here's Peterson (@mopete9) and Butler (@RasualButler45). Also, the Hornets wouldn't be the Hornets if they weren't stocked with swingmen (don't forget James Posey and Julian Wright!) while their frontcourt is so barren they're forced to play Sean Marks and Melvin Ely heavily.
to Oklahoma City for Chucky Atkins and Nenad Krstic
to Orlando for Mickael Pietrus and J.J. Redick

Magic GM Otis Smith values flexibility as much as the rest of the league's executives, but not even he's willing to part with Pietrus, his starting small forward, for a few extra bucks next summer.
to Philadelphia for Willie Green and Louis Williams
to Phoenix for Leandro Barbosa and Jared Dudley
to Portland for Steve Bake and Martell Webster
to Sacramento for Beno Udrih

The Kings would accept this deal faster than Mavis Beacon can type "Richardson." Udrih, with a career Player Efficiency Rating of 12.9, is owed $26.7 million over the next 4 seasons.
to San Antonio for Matt Bonner, Michael Finley, and Roger Mason
to Toronto for Marcus Banks, Patrick O'Bryant, and Antoine Wright
to Utah for Mehmet Okur
to Washington for Brendan Haywood and DeShawn Stevenson

Shawn Marion To Dallas: What They're Saying

Wes Cox — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 17:33:40 -0000

More photos » by Nick Wass - AP

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Shawn Marion's Twitter
What's up tweeps its official ur boy is a maverick that's what's up

ESPN: Latest Best Guess of what is heading to Dallas
The deal, according to sources, calls for the Mavericks to acquire Marion and Kris Humphries from Toronto and Greg Buckner from Memphis, with Marion to receive a five-year contract worth an estimated $39 million. Buckner has had two previous stints with the Mavericks but is likely to be released, sources said.

What grabbing Shawn Marion could mean to Dallas - Ball Don't Lie
This team obviously fancies itself a tinker or two away from re-joining the elite of their conference, two years removed from posting the NBA's best record. With all this money tossed around, will it make a difference? It should. Bringing in Marcin Gortat(notes), an above-average player who will only get better, is a sweet deal for an average salary. Retaining Kidd is fine, though he'll be slightly overpaid in the last two years of his three-year, $25 million dollar deal. And Marion can really help this squad.

DB.com Morning Donuts
So did the Mavs do a deal worthy of passing on Shaq, Jefferson and Carter? The best of that lot, for the Mavs' needs, is Jefferson. He's going to make $14.2 million. We're predicting Shawn Marion's new contract will start at $7 million or so. Are RJ and Shawn comparable talents? I would say so.

David Lord's Technical Morning Donuts
Buckner has an instant expiring contract (Stack-like) and he will definitely get waived later this year. The Mavs might use it themselves, but don't be surprised if they picked up his chip to include in a package later with a team needing financial relief. Buckner instant expiring deadline isn't until 11/30.

D Magazine: The Mavericks’ Summer Plan Unfolds
He is 31 years old. As someone who has gone to great lengths to suggest that our basketball team is becoming very old, I would likely be a hypocrite if I didn’t see this as another "older" addition. On the other hand, if you were going to get someone over 30, I would imagine a human jumping-jack like Marion will appear a bit younger than he is when he is going right. He plays above the rim. He will not be 32 until next May. If you are playing in a 3-year window, you are getting his 31, 32, and 33-year old seasons for this run (and 34 and 35, too). Not a horrible gamble, but it is worth noting that the Mavs have just added more "experience".

Eddie Sefko: Dallas Mavericks trade for Marion
The Mavericks now have a potential starting lineup of Marcin Gortat, Dirk Nowitzki, Marion, Josh Howard and Jason Kidd, with sixth man of the year Jason Terry coming off the bench. Marion, 31, has been on the decline the last few seasons but has averaged 17.8 points and 9.9 rebounds in his career. He had a strong second half last season after getting traded from Miami to Toronto, averaging 16 points and 9.3 rebounds in April.

Tim Cowlishaw: Marion makes Dallas Mavericks worthwhile
Are the Mavericks ready to dethrone the Lakers in the West? I don't think you can say that about any team. On paper, are they a better team than the one that advanced to the second round in May and are they a more intriguing team to watch in 2009-10? By a mile.

John Hollinger: Four-way trade puts Dallas Mavericks back in West's elite
It's all about prying the window open as long as you can. And with this week's moves to re-up Jason Kidd, sign Marcin Gortat to an offer sheet and acquire Shawn Marion in a four-team deal, the Mavs are doing all they can to keep it from slamming shut while Dirk Nowitzki is still an elite player.

...That said, this could all go to hell amazingly fast. On opening day, Kidd will be 36, Dampier 34, Terry 32, Nowitzki 31 and Marion 30; Howard also turns 30 in April. Of their top seven players, only Gortat, 25, could be described as in his prime, but he has the opposite problem: He's so untested that there's still some uncertainty surrounding how he'll perform as a 30-minute starter.

On the other hand, based on last season's performance, this team looks like a real danger to the West's elite. Dallas boasts eight players who had a PER above the league average last season -- nine if Bass re-signs -- and one of them is a genuine star in Nowitzki.

Mark Cuban, Mavericks choose to reload, not rebuild - Scott Howard-Cooper - SI.com
The Mavs believe they've got something special in a veteran team that was only three games from missing the playoffs. How else to explain three years for the 36-year-old Kidd? Only a team in win-now mode makes that investment. "It's hard to say what we would have done [if the finish had not been as encouraging]," owner Mark Cuban said. "We take the same approach every summer. We try to be opportunistic. If we get players we think can make us successful, we are going to do it."

NBA.com: Mavs, Raptors make big push to improve themselves
The Mavs could afford to let Wright go after signing defensive specialist Quinton Ross on Wednesday. Overall, Dallas has added depth, defense and speed. They're pretty stacked with talent as well, led by the former MVP Nowitzki. Among Western Conference contenders, only L.A. and San Antonio are surer bets to be a top-four seed in April.

Doug Smith's Toronto Raptors blog
Yes, this is the single greatest masterstroke achieved by a Raptors general manager in the time I’ve been covering the team, which is as long as the team has been in existence. Bryan got the free agent he wanted – Turkoglu – at the number he wanted him at. He got two guys who are if not serviceable – and I don’t know about Wright but I bet he’s got a shot at doing something there – have contracts that expire at the end of this season so they do not interfere with any salary machinations next summer.

Six reasons why the Wizards aren't looking to cut salary when they put the fifth pick on the market

Mike Prada — Sun, 07 Jun 2009 20:09:52 -0000

More photos » by Evan Vucci - AP

7 months ago: Washington Wizards President of Basketball Operations Ernie Grunfeld, left, looks on during an introductory news conference for new Washington Wizards head coach Flip Saunders Thursday, April 23, 2009 in Washington. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)

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Dear writers and fans of opposing teams;

I've noticed in my daily reading that some of you are still set on the Wizards using their fifth pick solely to get under the luxury tax. I don't necessarily come here to say you folks are dead-wrong, because none of us are prophets. It's true that the Wizards currently have 76 million dollars committed to 14 players for next season, and it's true that the luxury tax level is likely to go down (perhaps way down) from the current level of 71 million thanks to the possibility of the league losing as much as 10 percent of its revenue. It's also true that Abe Pollin, the Wizards owner, was very much against paying the luxury tax as recently as last summer prior to re-signing Gilbert Arenas and Antawn Jamison. Finally, yes, it's true the Wizards won 19 games this year and haven't advanced past the first round of the playoffs since 2005.

But times have changed. There are too many facts pointing in the other direction -- the Wizards are trying to add salary, not cut it -- to properly infer that the Wizards will sell away the pick just to get under the tax level. Six of those facts are below the jump. Read them, please, and then come back to me if you are still not convinced.

1. Abe Pollin's health

This is the single biggest factor at play here, and yet nobody has come out and made the proper inference. I understand why nobody has yet -- after all, Abe hasn't given too many interviews and the Wizards are notoriously tight-lipped when it comes to leaks -- but all signs point to Abe Pollin's declining health as the major reason why the Wizards aren't going to cut salary.

During the Wizards' first-round playoff series with Cleveland in 2008, Mike Wise reported that Abe, then 84 years old, was suffering from progressive supranuclear palsy, a degenerative brain disease that slowly impairs motor skills and balance. Wise wrote at the time that the disease is "not directly life-threatening," but corrected himself in a March 10 column this year, writing that "the progressive nature of the disease leads to trouble swallowing, the deterioration of eyesight and eventual death." The second column was written on the date of Pollin's last public appearance, when he was honored by George Washington University's business school. The 85-year old Pollin was wheeled out to the podium, and his voice was barely above a whisper. In short, he looked like his health was declining significantly.

While all this has happened, Abe has made his desire to win an NBA championship pretty clear. He later told Mike Jones of the Washington Times that he would be willing to go over the luxury tax to make it happen. Abe's been called cheap by his detractors, but it takes a lot to question the sincerity of his desire to win at this point. Abe's attempts to improve his ballclub historically have certainly been misguided, and he certainly has struggled in trying to balance his socially conscious actions with the need to win at all costs. But Abe is not Donald Sterling, interested only in his team profiting. He wants to win, and he'll put down his own money to do it (he did pay for the Verizon Center out of his own pocket, after all). When he says he desperately wants an NBA championship, he desperately wants an NBA championship.

What's my point? Abe Pollin is not going to sit through a rebuilding effort, not with his health declining so much that he won't have many more seasons left to win a championship. Selling the top draft pick just to go under the luxury tax line is akin to rebuilding. Teams that want to win a championship don't sell top-five draft picks for nothing. They do everything they can to improve on the foundation they built.

Costs be dammed. As insensitive as this may sound, Abe cannot take his money to the grave. He doesn't have time in his life to wait around for a rebuilding effort, so he's wiling to go all out in order to make one last run at a deep playoff run with the roster he's got.

2. The Wizards haven't been trying to actively cut salary yet

Let's review the actions of this organization since the end of last season.

Re-signed injured superstar Gilbert Arenas to a six year/111 million dollar contract
Re-signed 32-year old Antawn Jamison to a four year/50 million dollar contract
Fired Eddie Jordan after a 1-10 start, eating as much as eight million dollars if Eddie did not sign on to coach another team
Traded Antonio Daniels, who was set to make 6.6 million dollars in 2009/10, for Mike James (6.5 million dollars in 09/10) and Javaris Crittenton (1.5 million dollars in 09/10). To review, the Wizards sent out 6.6 million dollars in salary and added 8 million dollars in salary. That's a net gain of 1.4 million dollars in 2009/10.
Declined to trade Antawn Jamison or Caron Butler to Cleveland (or elsewhere) in exchange for Wally Sczcerbiak and his 13.8-million-dollar expiring contract. Such a move would have cut the Wizards' 2009/10 total team salary down to just over 62 million, which would have put them under the luxury tax.
Hired Flip Saunders, the top coach on the market save for possibly Avery Johnson, and gave him a four year/18 million dollar contract. This, of course, occurred before the 76ers selected Eddie Jordan to be their head coach. Remember, the Wizards must pay the difference between Eddie's current contract and the contract that he had here before he was fired. If Eddie didn't sign anywhere, that's at least eight million dollars.

Do these sound like moves made by an organization desperately looking to cut salary?

3. Where's the market?

Technically, the Wizards have until the 2010 draft to get under the luxury tax for the 2009/10 season. But as soon as the 2009 draft ends, that task becomes incredibly difficult.

Why? The best way to get under the 2009/10 tax line is to trade for contracts that expire after the 2008/09 season, not the 2009/10 season. Contracts that expire in 2010 count on the 2009/10 tax bill. The last real chance to trade for contracts that expired in 2009 was at this year's trade deadline. The Wizards didn't do that.

Now, there are only a few options available for the Wizards to cut salary. One would be to trade for a contract that is only partially guaranteed in 2009/10 on draft day. The only players that have contracts over 2 million dollars that are partially guaranteed are Jerry Stackhouse (7.3 million, only 2 million guaranteed), Greg Buckner (4.1 million, but only 1 million guaranteed), Chucky Atkins (3.8 million, not sure how much guaranteed), Steve Nash (13 million, all non-guaranteed), Steve Blake (4 million, non-guaranteed), Travis Outlaw (3 million, non-guaranteed), Bruce Bowen (4 million, non-guaranteed), Fabricio Oberto (3.8 million, non-guaranteed) and Matt Harpring (6.5 million, not sure how much guaranteed). The Wizards would have to trade a matching salary for one of those players and then cut them in order to save in 2009.

Another way would be to constantly be on the low end of the 125 percent rule. NBA rules dictate that salaries must match by 125 percent between two teams that are over the salary cap. The Wizards could constantly take in just 75 percent of salary, but that would have to occur in multiple trades to make a significant impact.

The final way to cut salary would be to dump a bad contract on a team well under the cap. Currently, the only team under the cap for 2008/09 are the Memphis Grizzlies. If the Wizards wait until after draft day, they could deal with Atlanta, Detroit, Minnesota, Oklahoma City or Memphis, all of whom are under the projected 2009/10 salary cap. But which of those teams wants any of our bad contracts? Atlanta needs their cap space to sign Mike Bibby, while Detroit is hoping to make a big splash in free agency. Etan Thomas is not a big splash.

If the Wizards really wanted to cut salary, they would have started earlier when more options were open. Now, there aren't too many ways to get under the tax threshold. Either the Wizards are incompetent or they don't really mind that they're over the tax. I'm leaning towards the second one.

4. Flip Saunders

We talked a bit about Flip's contract, but another piece of the puzzle is this: why would Flip take the job if the team was looking to shed salary? Flip had his pick of several openings, or he could have just sat on his contract from the Pistons and not taken any position. Instead, he took the Wizards opening quickly. A coach with the pedigree of Flip Saunders would only do that if the Wizards would do everything possible to try to win.

5. Ernie Grunfeld

Ernie's record in previous stops indicates he doesn't really know the meaning of the term "rebuild." In New York, Ernie gave out large contracts to role players like Chris Childs, Chris Dudley, Allan Houston (not the max contract offer, the one in 1997) and Charlie Ward. He did trade old for new once with the Charles Oakley-Marcus Camby trade, but otherwise, he was spending freely. Then, Ernie moved on to Milwaukee, quickly build them into a solid team, and then gave out huge contracts to Tim Thomas and Anthony Mason. When he left the Bucks, he left a team with tons of bad contracts and no real prospect of rebuilding. They're still paying for it now.

Ernie Grunfeld is not a GM who really knows how to cut salary or is interested in doing so. That's what the record says. So unless he gets fired, I doubt we'll see him actively engaging in a rebuilding effort.

6. They still believe in this team

The Wizards have a built-in excuse for last season: injuries. They played the entire year without their best player (Gilbert Arenas) and their best defensive player (Brendan Haywood). They played most of the year without their previous starting shooting guard (DeShawn Stevenson). They saw guys like Andray Blatche get hurt during the year. In response to that, you keep hearing management talking about how they still believe in this team. It could be a smokescreen, but it's a pretty damn big smokescreen to pull.

For all these reasons, I doubt the Wizards really cut salary on draft day. It's far more likely that they'll morgage their youth in order to bring in a high-priced veteran. The bias of this organization is against youth, not money. They're trying to trade the fifth pick because they don't believe a rookie can help this team much, not because they can't afford him.

So if you're very enamored with Nick Young, Andray Blatche, Javaris Crittenton, JaVale McGee or the prospects with the fifth pick, feel free to offer your overpaid veterans. That's far more likely to happen than a move to cut salary.

Wednesday GM

jsams — Thu, 08 Jan 2009 00:26:48 -0000

Here's a little experiment of mine. Each Wednesday "Wednesday GM" will appear on Liberty Ballers and it will be a weekly platform for me, and you to weigh in on some options the Sixers have in regards to tweaking the team. Every Wednesday I'll conjure up a transaction I'd the like to see the Sixers make and explain why it would work. Some trades may be more realistic than others, so bare with me. With that said, let Wednesday GM begin...

Alright this week, instead of breaking down one potential move I'm going to post two for a couple reasons. First off, it seems like rumors have been swirling lately in regards to Sammy D and/or Andre Miller being traded, so I wanted to get as many guesses in before something actually happened. That way I'll look smart if one of the predictions is even remotely close. Secondly, last week's Luke Walton and change for Reggie Evans trade seemed to cause a little hostility towards my GM skills, so this week I'll give you some options and you can tell me which one you like best. Here we go...

Philadelphia 76ers

Incoming Players
	Mike Conley Salary: $3,630,480 Years Remaining: 2 PTS: 7.8 REB: 2.9 AST: 3.1 PER: 12.25
	Marko Jaric Salary: $6,575,000 Years Remaining: 3 PTS: 1.2 REB: 0.5 AST: 1.0 PER: 6.80
	Greg Buckner Salary: $4,010,005 Years Remaining: 2 PTS: 2.2 REB: 1.2 AST: 0.5 PER: 9.04

Outgoing Players: Willie Green, Andre Miller

Why the Sixers do it: Sure, we take on two bad contracts, but the positives outweigh the negatives in this situation. First, we get rid of Willie Green. That in itself is enough for me to approve any trade. Secondly, we get something for Andre Miller instead of letting him walk this summer or signing him to an extension, which would be pretty foolish considering where the team is at contention-wise and his age. Lastly, we get our point guard of the future. Mike Conley has been far from spectacular in his one and a half years in Memphis, but I think in the right situation and with the right coaching (which isn't Tony DiLeo) he can be as special as everyone once thought he would be. Plus, he'd fit in perfectly since he has no jumpshot.

Memphis Grizzlies

Incoming Players
	Willie Green Salary: $3,388,000 Years Remaining: 3 PTS: 8.1 REB: 1.8 AST: 2.1 PER: 10.83
	Andre Miller Salary: $10,333,334 Years Remaining: 1 PTS: 15.4 REB: 4.1 AST: 6.3 PER: 17.24

Outgoing Players: Mike Conley, Marko Jaric, Greg Buckner

Why the Grizzles do it: This trade became a little less realistic once the Grizzles traded Javaris Crittenton to the Wizards, but today they made a move that boosted it back up to slightly realistic. Sure, it might be tough to part with Mike Conley, but they have Kyle Lowry and now a wild-card in Shaun Livingston. They get an expiring contract in Miller, which fits right into their plan to shed salary. They also give up two bad contracts in Marko (I'm married to one of the hottest girls ever) Jaric and Greg Buckner. It might not be the smartest trade for the Grizzles, but neither was Pau Gasol for Kwame Brown.

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Philadelphia 76ers

Incoming Players
	Larry Hughes Salary: $12,827,676 Years Remaining: 2 PTS: 12.0 REB: 3.2 AST: 2.1 PER: 14.63

Outgoing Players: Samuel Dalembert

Why the Sixers do it: We get rid of Sammy D and his horribly horrible contract, allowing Marreese Speights more minutes. And we get a slightly less horrible contract in Larry Hughes, who is a big upgrade over Willie Green at the two. Let's not forget Larry once averaged 22-6-5-3 and would instantly become the Sixers best three point shooter. Check the numbers.

Chicago Bulls

Incoming Players
	Samuel Dalembert Salary: $11,238,564 Years Remaining: 3 PTS: 5.6 REB: 8.2 AST: 0.2 PER: 11.27

Outgoing Players: Larry Hughes

They need a big man. They hate Larry Hughes. A Blog a Bull poster actually discusses the possibility of Dalembert here, but his two proposed trades (here and here) involve Andres Nocioni. And I can't believe I'm saying this, but I'd much rather have Hughes than Nocioni. Hughes could play the two for us in the short-term and his contract is up in two years, opposed to Noc who doesn't fit in anywhere on the team and we'd have to deal with him for a whopping 5 years! No thank you.

Juiced

Stop-n-Pop — Tue, 30 Dec 2008 16:17:47 -0000

Before we get around to last night's game, let's get a few Love/Mayo things out of the way. First, count me in as one of the few people in town who still believes that the draft night trade with Memphis was a good deal for the Wolves. It certainly isn't the highway robbery I once labeled it as, but it still places the Wolves in a far better position to win than does the alternative; a view that is not often walked all the way through when pondering the differences between apples (Kevin Love) and oranges (you-know-who).

Were O.J. Mayo donning a single shade of blue up here in the frozen tundra the Wolves would still have Antoine Walker, Greg Buckner, and the 09/10/11 free agent kililng contract of Marko Jaric. A lot is made of the 2010 free agent season but the fun really begins in this off-season as teams position themselves for open space under the cap. I encourage all of our readers to check out this 2010 primer as well as our very own salary page to see just how well this trade has positioned the Wolves for the 09/10 and 10/11 off-seasons. One of the most common arguments against the free agent aspect of the Love/Mayo trade is this: "No one will want to come up to Minnesota in free agency." This ignores the practical aspect of teams actually being able to come in far enough under the cap to be real players in the highly-anticipated market. It's not just that there will be teams doing whatever they can to land LeBron; it's that there will be teams doing whatever they can to try to clear space in order to land LeBron. The potential for sign-and-trades or flat-out max deals is really there for the Wolves. Jesus Jim Stack has referred to this practical reality a number of times. The bottom line for fans is that the Wolves are one of the few teams in the league that does not need to make drastic moves in order to be players in the 09/10 free-for-all. From teams that would like to be active (Charlotte) to those that are headed in the wrong direction (Toronto, Washington) to those that may be dramatically different a year from now (Utah), there are no shortage of options for the Wolves, and their freedom of flexibility rests largely on the outcome of the Love/Mayo trade.

Secondly, too much emphasis is put on Mayo the scorer instead of Mayo the player. The season isn't even 30 games old and we're dealing with 2 players a year removed from high school. Mayo is having a fantastic rookie campaign as a scorer. If, at the end of the year, Love is averaging near 25 mpg with close to a double-double, and a rebound rate comparable to what he has now, that will be no less a feat; especialy if Memphis and Minny end the season with similar records. Love is going to be a player. Eventually, he'll figure out how to put home the OReb bunnies and the Wolves will actually run some plays for him. The bottom line here is that elite rebounders are just as rare as elite scorers and, at this point in their careers, both players still have a lot of work to do to round out their games.

Finally, while Mayo and Love may have swapped places, the real comparison for Wolves fans should be Mayo and Foye. You can add this to Randy's list of comparable players. The reason why the Wolves thought they could make this trade work was because Foye was supposed to be a functional guard. He's certainly playing better of late but it's already looking like he may never become the player that Mayo already is and that's the rub with the Mayo deal. The fear of McFoyo was completely unfounded even if the Wolves didn't want to take three 6'4" combo guards in their last four drafts. Accountability-wise, McFoyo is another area where yours truly blew it with Mr. Mayo. He is a better player than both Rashad McCants and Foye--his true peers in this deal and the players by which such a trade was made possible.

Getting around to last night's game, it's not a contest the team should want to emulate. 1-15 from 3, 37 FTAs, and 8 point quarters aren't numbers you are going to see on a nightly basis. It was ugly, but it wasn't zombie ugly.

The Wolves won last night for a fairly simple reason: The Griz have no one to stop Al Jefferson. Nobody. They also can't rebound when it matters. They were out-boarded 29-17 in the 2nd half and overtime with only 5 Oreb compared to the Wolves' 9. Rebounding matters, especially getting and limiting Orebs. Last night the Griz collected .208 of their misses. The Wolves grabbed .275. I'm not assigning this victory to Love, but simply making a point; 3 offensive rebounds throughout a 90 possession game are worth a hell of a lot in a close game.

Let's end this with some bullet points:

Minny's bench is quickly becoming a 3-point bombing squadron.
It was nice to see Kevin McHale actually run some plays for Love down the stretch.
It was nice to see Love get the ball in the high post and enter it across the lane to Big Al in the low post down the stretch.
League Pass Broadband once again blacked out local audiences and the only way most out-state fans could have watched or listened to last night's game was to log on to illegal live streams. Good job NBA; where pushing paying customers into piracy happens.

That about does it for now. Here's hoping for another good effort against Dallas tonight.

Notes from the Bunker...

Peter W — Mon, 13 Oct 2008 02:18:52 -0000

Let me see...in the last week and a half I've lost serious investment money, heard some KTLK radio maroons claim Magic Johnson faked AIDS, saw some lady from Shakopee insist to John McCain that Obama is an Arab (she repeated her opinion, then added the two other often whispered but bogus Muslim and terrorist claims to a Star Tribune reporter), and watched the Lakeville town hall crowd boo when McCain told them Obama was a decent fellow. Not a great time to be in the middle class here in the Tundra.

Properly depressed, I hit the bunker for awhile, complete with my new HD screen, Wii, a great Vodka martini, and an Internet connection, scanning my universe for signs of hope. Given my ongoing distrust of our local NBA franchise, you can imagine how rock bottom my world is to say I have found a spark of promise in our club. How 'bout them Wolves anyway?

As much as I've joked about the Iron Ranger and the Wolves front office, they continue to make the little moves that have low risk and potentially high reward. Yes, they swung and missed on Shaun Livingston, but adding Kevin Ollie and David Harrison could be small gems during this long season. Harrison is a potential problem child to be sure, but has much more talent than either the just departed Rafael Araujo, or certainly Cal (Tattoo) Booth. If healthy and focused, Harrison gives them another legitimate big body; from what we've seen so far this preseason, Kevin Love will have some defensive adjustments to make against quality big men, which equates to fouls and extended bench time. Having both Harrison and Collins playing minutes at the 5 means no "forced feeding" of the rookie (pun intended); if Love has it going, keep him in, if not, slide Big Al over to his natural power position and let the Wolves work with a bigger front court. Here's hoping Harrison can get healthy and force the club to either buy out or waive Booth by the beginning of the season.

Ollie isn't a great player by any stretch of the imagination. However, like Greg Buckner last year, he can be enough of a glue guy to help out 5 -10 minutes per contest, or be DNP for a number of games and still make a contribution when his number is called. Other than Mike Miller, the veterans on this roster aren't particularly talented, but they seem to be straight up guys. That should help in the locker room if and/or when those extended losing streaks occur.

It may have been Fatigue Friday against the Nuggets (without Anthony, I might add), but my sense is the Wolves will increase their overall win total on the backs of teams like OKC, Milwaukee and Memphis this season, but still struggle mightily against the elite teams--save for a couple of exciting upsets. Hope is what we're looking for, so if those upsets come, say, against the Spurs, or a certain green clad team from Boston, that and 30 or so other wins will be enough for the majority of us.

Speaking of the Celtics by the way, it looks like they may have added some talent, also under the cover of low risk contracts. Here's Peter Vecsey's column today in the NY Post about one Patrick O'Bryant. We'll have to see if Darius Miles has anything left, but O'Bryant is showing some serious upside in the preseason. Good for them, bad for the rest of the league...maybe.

Looks like everyone everywhere could use a little more hope, even the champs.

Penny Hardaway (1999-2004) vs. Pat Garrity (1999-2008)

Ben Q Rock — Sat, 13 Sep 2008 05:44:30 -0000

Pat Garrity retired as an end-of-the-bench NBA role player, rarely making the active roster unless someone ahead of him in the rotation got injured. And, to be frank, he has not been NBA-relevant in years. However, he finishes his career having played in 513 career games for the Orlando Magic, the second-highest total in franchise history. That's why there's a lot of Pat content here in the wake of his retirement: dude's earned it, 14th man or not.

The Magic acquired Garrity, a rookie, from the Phoenix Suns in exchange for Penny Hardaway, who became disgruntled in Orlando. Without comment, I present to you this table, which shows the players' totals with the franchises to which they were traded.

Hardaway	vs.	Garrity
	Team
236	Games	513
2924	Points	3800
1071	Rebounds	1382
986	Assists	425
316	Steals	238
105	Blocks	101
.444	FG%	.413
.326	3FG%	.398
.799	FT%	.817
0	Dunks On Sam Dalembert	1

The only non-lottery picks from Garrity's draft class who still have NBA contracts are Rafer Alston, Maceo Baston, Ryan Bowen, Greg Buckner, Ricky Davis, Al Harrington, Jerome James, Rashard Lewis (!), Tyronn Lue, Sean Marks, Cuttino Mobley, Nazr Mohammed, Rasho Nesterovic, and Brian Skinner.