SB Nation - Didier Ilunga-Mbenga

Artest Is Fitting in Quite Well, and Other Good News

DexterFishmore — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 18:30:15 -0000

Last October, as part of our preview series, I published a piece here titled Stat Trends to Watch in the New Season. In it I broke down five statistical issues I thought would be especially telling as the Lakers' title defense got underway. The season has reached and passed the quarter pole, and with a short break in the action - the Lakers are off until tomorrow night - now's a good time to revisit those five issues to see how things are shaping up.

Not surprisingly given the Lake Show's 18-4 start, the news is mostly good. It's still early and we're dealing with smallish sample sizes, but the way the numbers are breaking bodes well for this year's team. Let's dive right into another Laker Stats Orgy.

1. Ron Artest's Usage Rate and True Shooting Percentage.

As I discussed in the original piece, Ron Artest's signing with the Lakers raised an interesting question of fit. Throughout his career, Ron has generally been a high-volume shooter of middling efficiency. His offensive skill set was useful on a Houston Rockets team staffed with role players who couldn't really create shots for themselves, but on a Lakers team bristling with scorers, something had to give. The best-case scenario would be that he segues gracefully into the Trevor Ariza role, that of an efficient but secondary offensive option. The worst-case scenario would be him draining possessions from Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol and others, burning those possessions inefficiently and thus dragging down the Laker attack.

So far, the Artest Experiment is going just fine. Ron has gone out of his way to defer to the Lakers' other shooting options - his usage rate (the percentage of the team's possessions he uses while he's on the floor) is down to 18% from 23% last year - and his True Shooting Percentage is up a few ticks. I expect his TS% to increase further, in fact, as Ron's shooting only 62% from the free-throw line. That's well below his career average of 72% and is likely just a fluke. As his free-throw accuracy regresses to the mean, he'll become an even more efficient scorer.

Another good indicator of Artest's fit in the Laker offense is his assist rate. This measures the percentage of a player's possessions that ends in an assist. Ron's assist rate so far this season is over 21%, which is far and away his career high. The stats here confirm what our eyes have been telling us - that Ron is an exceptionally skilled passer who's made feeding his teammates a priority.

There are two areas of improvement I'd like to see in Ron's numbers. First, turnovers. I want fewer of them. Right now he's turning the ball over on about 12% of his possessions, which isn't good for a small forward. That's higher than his career norms, so he should be able to bring that down.

Second, Ron doesn't seem to be all that good at finishing at the rim. He gets to the rum perfectly fine, nearly five times per 40 minutes, but he converts only about 50% of those looks. Just to pick a couple comps not quite at random, Kobe's conversion rate at the rim is generally 60% or above, as is Ariza's. Ron doesn't have the ups those guys do, and he also appears to hurry his shot when he gets a close look. Take it from Dr. Dre, Ron: slower is better.

2. Opponents' Three-Point Attempts and Accuracy.

Last year the Lakers pulled off an unusual trick: they had a very good defense despite allowing opponents to hoist a bunch of threes. Those two things don't typically go together. You defend the perimeter, stathead orthodoxy will tell you, by chasing shooters off the three-point line. There's a lot of evidence that teams don't have much control over opponents' three-point accuracy, so the key is to limit their three-point attempts. Make them take long twos instead. That's not what the Lakers did last season, but they got away with it because their opponents made only 34% of their threes, the third-lowest rate in the league.

Was this just good fortune, or are the Lakers really onto something? The numbers so far suggest the latter. The Laker defense has really tightened up the number of three-point attempts it allows: only 21% of total FGAs, eighth-best in the league. And of the threes that go up, less than 30% go in, easily the best in the league. It looks like the Lakers actually do know how to shut down the long-distance game.

The Lakers are blessed with long and athletic perimeter defenders, which obviously helps, but the strong-side trap they installed at the beginning of last season is proving to be a robust system. We should also note that they've maintained and even improved on last year's stingy D despite the loss of Kurt Rambis, the team's de facto "defensive coordinator." Hats off to Phil and his assistants for not missing a beat.

3. Opponents' Free-Throw Accuracy.

Speaking of good fortune.

Opponents of the 2008-09 Lakers made 75.3% of their free-throw attempts. Only opponents of the Rockets shot worse, meaning the Lakers got fairly lucky. It's not the hugest deal ever - their good luck was worth something like 35 points over the course of the season - but it's enough to swing a game here and there. So how's the free-throw "defense" holding up so far in the new campaign?

In absolute terms, it's been almost exactly identical: opponents are hitting 75.4% of their freebies. The league average is down a couple percentage points this season, however, so you can't really say the Lakers are still coasting on luck. What they've "allowed" is right at the league mean.

It still becomes relevant on a micro level from time to time. Kobe's epic buzzer-beater against Miami, you might recall, was made possible only because the Heat, a 75% free-throw shooting team on average, shot 64% from the line that night. Had they made free throws at their normal rate, they would've scored five additional points, swinging the outcome in their favor.

4. Kobe's Free Throw Attempts.

In October I observed, to everyone's delight, that Kobe's tendency to draw fouls and get to the free-throw line had declined sharply from the previous season. His ratio of free-throws attempted to field-goals attempted, a basic measure of a player's ability to get to the line that I'll refer to as "Free Throw Rate" for brevity's sake, had dropped 25% from 2007-08. Here, to remind us all what we're talking about, are his recent Free Throw Rates by season and age.

Season	Age	FTA/FGA
2003-04	25	0.45
2004-05	26	0.50
2005-06	27	0.38
2006-07	28	0.44
2007-08	29	0.44
2008-09	30	0.33

The fall-off is problematic for a couple reasons. One, the free-throw line is among the most efficient ways to score points. Two, a declining Free Throw Rate can be an early warning sign of aging. It can indicate that a player is losing a step and can't beat opposing defenders like he used to. I didn't argue that Kobe had, in fact, lost a step - just that this is something to keep an eye on as his odometer keeps spinning upward.

His Free Throw Rate looking so far this year? Steady as she goes - 0.32, almost the same as last season. That's good news, as are the other readings we often look to as a way of measuring athleticism. Kobe's steals and offensive rebounds are both up significantly, and the advanced metrics that try to capture individual D say that he's defending as well as ever. To the naked eye, he looks even stronger than he did last year (his recent injury and illness aside).

Everything checks out fine, in other words. Admittedly, though, I don't know why Kobe's Free Throw Rate is hovering below his career levels. I recently examined Free Throw Rates of 20 or so elite scoring wings from the last three decades and found that most of them didn't suffer declines in this metric in their early 30's. At this stage of their careers, most held steady or even got better at getting to the stripe.

My working hypothesis with Kobe is that his Free Throw Rate has been affected by the emergence of Andrew Bynum as an offensive force and the arrival of Pau Gasol. These two events happened during the 2008-09 season, which is when the falloff in Kobe's FT attempts kicked in. With a pair of potent offensive options in the lane, Kobe may well have decided that the Laker offense no longer required him to hurl himself into the paint (and subject himself to possible injury) quite so much. To test this I need to take a closer look at game-by-game shot charts from this season and last, but it all seems plausible on its face.

5. DJ Mbenga's Block Rate.

Still very good!

This one I tossed into the October piece as a little pat on DJ's back, since he didn't get much love from our previews otherwise. As it happens, the man has played more this season than we guessed he would, owing to the Bynum and Gasol injuries. And he's held his own! His defensive numbers are strong across the board, and while his block rate (the percentage of the opponent's two-point shots he blocks while he's on the floor) is down from the insane 10.2% of last season, it's nonetheless at a very-respectable 7.2%.

So much respect to DJ, seriously. There are many worse backup centers in the league. For the cut-rate salary of less than a mill, he's quite the good value.

All numbers courtesy of Basketball Reference and HoopData.

Confirmed: Hornets Terrible

DexterFishmore — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 06:03:23 -0000

This one's for you, DJ!

View full size photo »

When Phil Jackson decides to retire as coach of the Los Angeles Lakers, someone, somewhere will float the idea that Byron Scott should get the gig. Whether emanating from those feeling nostalgic for the Showtime years or (much more likely) from his agent, Byron's name is sure to come up. And when it does, I want Jerry Buss and Mitch Kupchak to break out the tape from tonight's game.

The Lakers hammered Scott's New Orleans Hornets for a 104-88 victory whose outcome was assured two minutes into the third quarter. Looking even worse than their now 2-5 record, the Hornets were a toxic mess. Their offense couldn't manage even a point per possession against a Lakers team playing without Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol. Their defense allowed 1.17 points per possession even though the oft-maligned Laker reserves played 43% of the available minutes. At the end of the first and beginning of the second periods, Chris Paul moldered on the bench for over six minutes while the Lakers built a double-digit lead. And Scott insisted on playing guards Bobby Brown and Devin Brown, total zeroes who were completely overmatched in this game and probably shouldn't be in the league, ahead of demonstrably superior rookies Marcus Thornton and Darren Collison.

I'm not even a Hornets fan and I'm outraged by this. It's unacceptable that a magnificent talent like Paul has to spend the next three seasons with this turd of a team. I just hope Coach Byron Scott forever remains someone else's problem.

As for the Lake Show tonight, it was an awesome first half by Kobe Bryant, followed by a very solid mop-up performance from the bench. DJ Mbenga had a double-double [Ed.: mmm... double-double... I'll take two please], Shannon Brown tossed in 15 and Ron Artest and Lamar Odom both had strong overall stat lines in limited minutes.

More to come about this one in the morning. In the meantime, here's your box score, and the tempo-free numbers are below. The Lakers are 6-1.

	Poss.	TO%	FTA/ FGA	FT%	EFG%	TS%	Off Reb%	Def Reb%	PPP
L.A.	89	13	0.22	89	54	58	27	71	1.17
N.O.	90	14	0.27	83	41	46	29	73	0.98

P.S. - If you haven't done so, please also read commenter Justin N's Fanpost with his thoughts on the season so far, available here. It's good stuff and worth your time.

Lakers-Hornets Preview

DexterFishmore — Sun, 08 Nov 2009 20:00:35 -0000

Remember when the New Orleans Hornets were the next big thing? It wasn't that long ago, although to a Hornets fan it must seem like the Carter administration.

In the spring of 2008, the Hornets challenged the Los Angeles Lakers for best record in the Western Conference. They fell one game short of the conference's top seed, and then one game short of meeting the Lakers in the conference finals. With a seemingly young core of Chris Paul, Tyson Chandler, David West and Peja Stojakovic, the Hornets appeared on the verge of securing a more or less permanent seat on the NBA Security Council.

I say seemingly, though, because within that core group only Paul was really on the upswing of his career. And sure enough, last season involved some textbook-quality regression to the mean. Paul remained awesome, but West's play slipped a touch and Chandler and Peja missed substantial time with injuries. The Hornets tumbled to seventh in the conference and got roundhouse-kicked out of the first round by the Denver Nuggets.

On Sunday night they arrive at Staples with a 2-4 record and looking not terribly formidable. There's no more telling indicator of their decline than this: the Hornets are the only team in the NBA to have lost to the New York Knicks. And when someone's losing to the Knicks, I assume they're either butt-awful or point-shaving. The two aren't mutually exclusive, I suppose.

On the other hand, one of New Orleans' wins came against the Dallas team that blasted the Lakers, so they have that going for them. Let's go to the numbers, with the usual caveat about small, early-season sample sizes:

	Hornets	Lakers
Net Points Per Game	-6.3 (25th)	+3.5 (11th)
Pace	93.5 (22nd)	95.4 (15th)
Offensive Rating	105.2 (12th)	104.6 (14th)
Defensive Rating	109.9 (28th)	99.6 (9th)

(For those unfamiliar with the above terms, Pace means average number of possessions per 48 minutes. Offensive Rating is the number of points scored per 100 possessions. Defensive Rating is the number of points allowed per 100 possessions. League rankings are in parentheses.)

Like the Grizzlies team the Lakers just faced, the Hornets have been decent on offense and an utter catastrophe on defense. Their strength has been their shooting, or rather Chris Paul's shooting. He's been unreal in the first six games, making 62% of his two-point attempts, 72% of his three-point attempts and 87% of his free throws. Solve Paul, and you've solved the Hornets.

It would help if anyone had any clue how to do that. Paul is a point guard of surgical brilliance. With the ball in his hands, which is almost always, he goes wherever he wants to go, and he's a master when it comes to passing out of the pick-and-roll and drive-and-dish. Laker fans who watched the Houston game last week will recall how Aaron Brooks repeatedly sliced into the lane and found the Rocket big men for easy hoops. Well, Paul makes Aaron Brooks look like Smush Parker, and he makes Smush look like you and me.

Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol, who have the size to make Paul's forays into the paint less inviting, won't play tonight. DJ Mbenga has similar size and even better shot-blocking facility, but he'll need to play with discipline and stay out of foul trouble. The Lakers will also need some plan to slow Paul on the perimeter, before he gets a head of steam en route to the basket.

I'd argue that Derek Fisher hasn't been that bad on D this year. He got torched by Brooks, but I thought he did a respectable job guarding Russell Westbrook in Oklahoma City. That said, asking Fish to guard Paul has the potential to be a complete, NC 17-rated horror show. It thus wouldn't surprise me to see Kobe Bryant draw the assignment at times. New Orleans has the worst set of shooting guards in the league - according to our sister blog At The Hive, someone named Devin Brown will start at the 2 tonight - so Phil could easily dial up that defensive switch.

(Devin Brown, by the way, could be the worst player to start an NBA game this year. I do not exaggerate.)

The central problem for the Hornets is the gaping void of roster talent after Paul. David West and Emeka Okafor (the latter obtained in a trade that sent Chandler to Charlotte) are above average for their positions, but they're not quite All Star-caliber, and everyone else is either a has-been or never-gonna-be. Peja isn't anything like the threat he was during the LA-Sacramento holy wars. He can still hit threes but does nothing else on the court except be old.

Will the Lakers need another 40-point Kobe explosion to win this one? If the bench plays as well as it did against Memphis or nearly so, and if Ron Artest continues his stellar work on both ends of the floor, the answer is no. Even down Bynum and Gasol, the Lakers have enough talent and system to get to 6-1.

But if the reserves fumble around incompetently as they've been known to do from time to time, or if Paul runs wild for 40 minutes, things could definitely turn sour.

In conclusion, how cool is it that New Orleans has an actual place called the Voodoo Spiritual Temple? If I ever get married that's where it's going to be.

Forever Young: Lakers beat Grizzlies 114 to 98

djturtleface — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 13:41:40 -0000

More photos » by Lori Shepler - AP

Browse more photos »

In a night with a few upsets, the Grizzlies didn't manage to force one of them. While they did lead at halftime, the Grizzlies were routed by the Lakers last night. To reiterate the point the Lakers were missing two enormous pieces in this game, Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum, but still slowly figured out how to pick apart the Grizzlies. Remember that championship pedigree thing? It looks a lot like this game.

Check the Grizzlies vs Lakers boxscore and Silver Screen and Roll for more on the game, and be sure to get over the jump for way more recap and the usual highlights.

Recap

Kobe Bryant just shredded the Grizzlies non-defense for 41 points, as expected, and Ron Artest also had his first great game of the season tonight. Artest absolutely filled it up with 19 points, 6 rebounds, 7 assists, and a block and steal on defense. Frontcourt fill-ins D.J. Mbenga and Josh Powell also played admirably.

Both Rudy Gay and Zach Randolph scored for the Grizzlies, but they also were non-entities on defense. Ron Artest picked Rudy apart to give him a game-worst +/-, and while Z-bo wasn't too shabby against Lamar Odom, he got beat by Josh Powell's midrange jumper. O.J. Mayo, Allen Iverson, and Mike Conley all looked bad -- what guard controversy?

The bench was again pretty much a non-factor, as bench players were typically slotted into some permutation of the starting lineup. I will say that the lineups do often look a bit better when some scoring has been traded for some defense -- often a lot better.

Rockness Monster- Ron Artest just killed Rudy Gay tonight. You could see the veteran savvy in his fakes and footwork that left Rudy nowhere near passing lanes or challenging shots on the few possessions he made a real effort on defense.

U-Turn- After one good night, Allen Iverson turns in a bad one. He played around 20 minutes, but only managed 8 points and 3 assists. Looks like Conley will remain the starter for the foreseeable future if neither of them can impress against a half-decent defense.

Bitter Lemon- One point I finally noticed tonight is that the Grizzlies offense runs almost completely different depending on if either Conley or Iverson is in controlling the ball. With Conley the offense normally actually runs through Gasol in the high-post, this is something many writers have asked for, but I'm not so thrilled with the reality. The other players aren't running the plays crisply enough for Gasol to deliver them the ball.

With Iverson the offense run better because it is a more tradition isolation setup, which plays better into the Grizzlies personnel, but is likely only going to exacerbate the trouble of having four isolation scorers all craving shots. In other words neither of these is the right way to play.

Sleeping With the Enemy- Now I'm picking up my own sloppy seconds after focusing on Ron Artest as my player of the game, so let me change over to the Lakers bench. Against the Grizzlies these guys looked good again. Luke Walton was dropping reverse layups for heaven's sakes.

Kobe Disembowels Mayo, Lakers Roll

DexterFishmore — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 06:35:31 -0000

More photos » by Reed Saxon - AP

Browse more photos »

The Memphis Grizzlies aren't good, so we shouldn't get carried away here. They're young, and their roster has been put together without a coherent blueprint. Playing at home, the Lakers should beat these guys, even with Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol in dry-dock.

All that said, the Lakers put on a splendid all-around show tonight. After a sputtery first half that ended with the Grizz up 2, the L.A. offense roared into high gear to win going away. Ron Artest (14 points 19 points, 7 assists, 6 rebounds) continued his All Star-caliber play, DJ Mbenga (a career-high 13 rebounds) and Josh Powell filled in ably for the missing frontcourt starters, and Derek Fisher and Jordan Farmar tag-teamed the point position as well as they have in ages.

What everyone will be talking about, though, is Adam Morrison, who lit up the scoreb-... no, sorry. I'm misreading my notes. Kobe Bryant, I meant to say, is what everyone will be talking about tomorrow. Working almost exclusively from the post, he kneecapped the Grizzly defense with 41 points on 65% True Shooting. Just as remarkably, he committed zero turnovers. OJ Mayo spent most of the night guarding Kobe one-on-one and basically got vaporized.

The box score is here, and the tempo-free numbers are below. Enjoy your evening. The Lakers are 5-1.

	Poss.	TO%	FTA/ FGA	FT%	EFG%	TS%	Off Reb%	Def Reb%	PPP
Lakers	89	9	0.12	82	55	57	40	72	1.28
Grizz	88	14	0.37	76	48	53	28	60	1.11

Lakers-Grizzlies Preview

DexterFishmore — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 18:00:38 -0000

View full size photo »

The Memphis Grizzlies are, in some structural sense, the opposite of the Houston Rockets franchise the Lakers just faced. The Rockets have a widely admired basketball organization but a shortage of ability on the floor. They've got a smart young GM and a successful head coach but no elite players. They're all system, little talent.

The Grizzlies are all talent, zero system. Maybe negative system, if that makes any sense (obviously no, it doesn't). Their roster is littered with high lottery picks, famous names and even a former league MVP, and yet they still blow. The problem, basically, is meddlesome tightwad Michael Heisley, whom SI recently dubbed the third-worst owner in the NBA. Under Heisley's stewardship, the Grizzlies have become really young and really cheap, and although that strategy might result in a winning product a couple years from now, they're not there yet.

Of course, Laker fans do have Heisley to thank for Pau Gasol, so let's keep him in our hearts as we preview Friday night's game.

The Grizz arrive in LA with a sterling 1-4 record. They're in the midst of a five-game West Coast trip of which they've dropped the first three. Here are their and the Lakers' other vital stats so far this year. Keep in mind that with less than 10% of the season in the books, these don't really mean much.

	Lakers	Grizz
Pace	96.3 (12th)	98.3 (7th)
Offensive Rating	100.6 (19th)	106.3 (9th)
Defensive Rating	98.1 (8th)	114.8 (30th)

("Pace" means average number of possessions per 48 minutes. "Offensive Rating" is the number of points scored per 100 possessions. "Defensive Rating" is the number of points allowed per 100 possessions. League rankings are in parentheses.)

As you can see, Memphis has been putting up points quite nicely, which is a huge change from last year, when they ranked 28th in the league in offensive efficiency. What's driven the improvement is ownage of the offensive glass. The Grizzlies lead the NBA in offensive rebounding rate thanks to strong work by new power forward Zach Randolph and bearded terror Marc Gasol.

Hey, guess who's dead last in defensive rebounding rate! You got it: the Lakers. They've been getting rocked on the defensive glass this year, and that's with Andrew Bynum playing full-time. No Pau and no Bynum on Friday night = ruh roh. Memphis is likely to enjoy a few three- and four-shot possessions, much to my outrage.

The Grizz frontcourt also "features" Hamed Haddadi, the only Iranian player in the NBA, and second overall pick Hasheem Thabeet. Thabeet has played only 29 minutes this season and stinks of eau de bustola.

On the perimeter Memphis rolls out wave after wave of unrepentant chuckers. You recognize the names - O.J. Mayo, Rudy Gay, Allen Iverson - but none is a tremendously efficient scorer. I'm not sure there's a coordinated offensive game plan here - mostly these guys seem to stand around and take turns launching J's. I suspect Ron Artest will guard Gay while Kobe Bryant checks Mayo. The more possessions that get routed through Iverson, the easier the night will be for the Lakers.

On defense the Grizzlies are a total mess. Last in the league in defensive efficiency, they're easier to score on than your sister after she's had a few. The Lakers will be missing two major frontcourt threats, so most of the scoring will need to come from Kobe, Ron and Lamar Odom. Mayo and Gay are poor on-ball defenders, so it wouldn't totally shock me to see Kobe hit 50 in this one.

It remains to be seen exactly how Phil Jackson will adjust the rotation in the absence of Bynum and Pau. Going small - with, say, Odom at center and Shannon Brown in the starting lineup - strikes me as inadvisable. Randolph and Marc Gasol are too potent inside and can do too much damage on the offensive glass. Dr. Fishmore instead prescribes heavy minutes for DJ Mbenga and Josh Powell.

Straight Outta Vancouver, our sibling Grizzlies blog on SB Nation, does good work and will have more on this matchup. Feel free to pay them a visit, but please be neighborly if you do. They have to root for the Grizzlies, after all. They don't need any additional grief.

If Shannon Brown Had a Gatorade Commercial

DexterFishmore — Fri, 24 Jul 2009 01:46:25 -0000

Here's the latest entry in my ongoing film festival of homemade Laker fan video joints. This is no Clyde Davis masterpiece, but it's an impressive little number nonetheless. I award it valuable Fishmore Points - redeemable for a free side dish at your local Red Lobster! - for:

casting a lesser-known Laker as its leading man, thus giving Shannon Brown some well-deserved dap while moving us one step closer to the inevitable DJ Mbenga YouTube tribute;
including extended footage of Marko Jaric getting dunked on; and
matching jump-cuts with the complex syncopation of those faux-tribal Gatorade drums, which can't be easy as a matter of video editing-fu.

I mean... I assume it's not easy, but what do I know? Technology baffles me. I'm actually typing this on a Tandy 1000.

More Laker Positives from Game 5

Josh Tucker — Thu, 14 May 2009 00:30:11 -0000

Our Game 5 Recap looked at the ~~good, better, and best~~ good, bad, and ugly of the Lakers' 40-point blowout of the Rockets in L.A. last night. But believe it or not, there were positives from this game that we still haven't even touched on. The list seems almost endless; look at almost any category, and the Lakers had the advantage.

Timbo is out for the weekend, so instead of The View from Houston, let's just do a quick review of the multitude of things that went well for the Lakers last night.

There's so much here, I could write about it from here to the start of Game 6 – so instead, we'll do this in list format, and we'll keep the commentary to a minimum, letting the numbers speak for themselves.

Intensity & Effort – up 25 at half, the Lakers didn't "play soccer"... they continued to be aggressive, made it 40 to end the third, earned the starters a rest, and didn't even let up in garbage time. Now that's a good effort.
Defense – The Rockets on offense read like this: 32.6% from the field, 35% effective field goal percentage, 41% true shooting percentag.
Forced Turnovers – 18 Rockets turnovers, which the Lakers turned into 24 points. 12 steals (8 in the first half).
Blocks – 7 blocks (6 in the first half, 3 for Gasol.
Rebounding – Lakers were +7 on the boards.
Offense – Balanced, making threes but still attacking the rim. 56 points in the paint (+14 to the Rockets' 42).
Pace – Lots of steals = 24 fast break points (7 for Rockets). 118 points overall, 64 at half time.
3-Point Shooting – Took only 13 threes, made 46.2% of them. Closed out on shooters, held Rockets to 17.2% from long distance. Rockets took more than twice as many threes (29), but made one less (5).
Free Throws – By attacking the basket, the Lakers earned 36 FTAs, making 28 of them. They managed to keep Houston off the line: the Rockets were 15-16 from the stripe. Overall, Houston committed 7 more fouls than LA.
The Bench Mob – 47 points on 16-34 shooting (47%), 6 steals, 24 rebounds, 4-7 from three, 11-13 from the line, lots of pluses and no minuses in the +/- column. Starters were able to rest the entire 4th quarter.
Pau Gasol – Shot 5-9 from the field, had 16 points, 13 rebounds, 3 assists, 3 blocks, 1 steal, zero turnovers. Very aggressive on both ends of the floor.
Trevor Ariza – 5-8 overall, 50% from deep, 13 points, 3 assists, 3 steals. Very active defense, really attacked the rim.
Andrew Bynum – 5-6 shooting, 4-4 from the stripe, 14 points, 6 rebounds, great defense, plenty of changed shots... and only 2 fouls! All in 20 minutes of play.
Kobe Bryant – 10-19 shooting, not too many outside shots, got to the basket at will, 5-6 from the line. 26 points (1.4 points per shot!), 4 rebounds, 3 assists, 1 steal, 1 block... without even playin gin the 4th quarter.
Lamar Odom – Only took 3 shots, but wasn't even expected to play. 5-6 from the free throw line (!), 10 points, 6 rebounds in only 19 minutes.
Jordan Farmar – 4-7 shooting, 2-2 on three-pointers, 12 points, 6 assists, 2 rebounds, 1 steal, and only 1 turnover. All in only 22 minutes. The Kid is back.
Luke Walton – Didn't score a lot, but didn't cause a bunch of boneheaded turnovers either. 6 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 steals, and only 1 turnover. Hit both free throws.
UPS Air – Brown had 7 points, 4 rebounds, 2 steals, 1 block, and zero turnovers in 17 minutes.
Josh Powell – Not afraid to shoot the ball in garbage time. 4-7, 10 points... helped protect that magic number 40.
DJ Mbenga – His first playoff minutes, one heck of a block, and a monster dunk, all of which thrilled the crowd. Heeeeyyy youuuuu guuuuuyyys!!!
Ron Artest – 4-15 from the field, 1-7 from three, 9 points, 4 rebounds, 4 turnovers, only 1 assist.
Shane Battier – 2-7 from the field, 5 points. 1-4 from downtown. Couldn't guard Kobe.
Aaron Brooks – 4-11 from the field, 0-3 from deep, 2 assisst, 2 turnovers, 1 rebound. Wasn't able to do much driving and dishing.
Kyle Lowry & Chuck Hayes – Combined for 3 defensive rebounds, and 6 rebounds overall. Combined 4-13 for 8 points. No steals, no turnovers.
Brian Cook – What a bargain.

I know, I know... practically the entire Lakers roster was in the positives, in some way or another. What can I say? When they're all that good, it's our job to recognize it!

The only bad I could find: Derek Fisher just can't keep up with Aaron Brooks (all 4 of Brooks' baskets came against Fisher); Sasha Vujacic is still worthless (missed both three pointers, had three times as many fouls as baskets in 14 minutes); the Rockets grabbed 16 offensive rebounds. But with so many positives, it's hard to get upset about such a short list of negatives.

I think I speak for all of Lakerland when I say that if the Lakers continue to play like this, they'll bring home a championship in June. All in all, a victory to relish.

As far as I'm concerned, no drug can provide a high that could compare to a dominating Laker performance like this one.

Playoff Rotations

WildYams — Wed, 22 Apr 2009 19:26:44 -0000

Something really jumped out at me last night and I was glad to see Phil Jackson voluntarily addressed it afterwards:

"I think it was my fault," he said in a rare mea culpa. "Substitution probably hurt us a little bit in the course of the game, and I think that I tried to play too many players at that time in the game to get us going, which created a little bit of hesitancy."

With that in mind, let's discuss the playoff rotations.

Point Guard

No offense to Jordan Farmar, but at this point in the season the bench should be shortened to 8-9 guys max, because the time to showcase what you got and audition for your role is over. Farmar has not produced for a while now, while Shannon Brown has been stepping up consistently for the last few weeks with all the playing time he's got. Farmar's role at this point should be to keep himself ready in case there is some foul trouble or an injury, but otherwise we shouldn't be seeing him in the games unless it's a blowout.

There are 48 minutes of playing time to be allocated to this position, and there is no reason they shouldn't all be going to Derek Fisher and Shannon Brown. Fish should probably be getting the bulk of those minutes, say 28-30, with Brown getting the rest (18-20). You're not going to find any successful team at this time of year that has a three man rotation for one position.

Shooting Guard

Obviously Adam Morrison is out here, and all the minutes should be going to Kobe Bryant and Sasha Vujacic. Phil's been pretty on point with the rotation here, with Kobe getting 40 minutes in Game 1 and 38 in Game 2; and Sasha getting 12 in Game 1 and 15 in Game 2. However, Phil shouldn't be afraid to play Kobe more than 40 minutes per game if need be. After all, the best way to get Kobe some rest is by sweeping the opponent, rather than by sitting him for a few extra minutes in a game where the opposition is rallying from a deficit. Ideally Kobe should be playing 38-42 minutes a game with Sasha only picking up the extra 6-10 minutes. There's just no real reason for Sasha to be getting more unless it's a blowout, and even then those extra minutes should come in garbage time in the 4th quarter, not when the Lakers are up 20 in the first half.

Small Forward

There's really only two true small forwards on the team, so obviously all the minutes here should be split between Trevor Ariza and Luke Walton. Luke has been playing well lately, but Trevor has been playing great, and as such Trevor should be getting the large majority of the minutes. With the way Trevor is playing he should be getting 34-38 minutes a game, with Luke filling in for the remaining 10-14. So far neither one is getting enough playing time, IMO. Trevor only played 34 minutes in Game 1 and only 32 minutes last night; while Luke has only played in 11 minutes in each game.

Additionally, outside of garbage time at the end of a blowout game, there's really no reason for both Luke and Sasha to be on the floor at the same time together, especially if Kobe and Trevor play the number of minutes that they should be. Personally I don't see a reason for why Phil can't keep Trevor in while Sasha is playing, and to keep Kobe in while Luke is in the game. If Phil can do that, then it ensures that at worst the lineup looks like this:

Bynum/Gasol - C; Gasol/Odom - PF; Luke - SF; Kobe - SG; Fisher/Brown - PG

Bynum/Gasol - C; Gasol/Odom - PF; Trevor - SF; Sasha - SG; Fisher/Brown - PG

Imagine seeing a Laker game whether either of those two lineups are the absolute worst collection of players you ever see on the floor together! I'd love to hear an argument for why that shouldn't be the case

Power Forward

This position and center are easy to call, and Phil is already basically perfect with his rotations for both frontcourt spots. Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom should get all the minutes here, with Josh Powell on hand in case of foul trouble, or for mop up duty in garbage time at the end of a blowout win. Gasol also splits time with Andrew Bynum at center, and between those two and Odom each player should be getting somewhere between 30-40 minutes each game, with Gasol getting the most of the three.

Center

As mentioned above, Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol should get all the minutes here. With DJ Mbenga not being active for these games, the Lakers don't really have a third center, although even if DJ was on the roster, he wouldn't be expected to see any non-garbage time minutes.

The only thing to really worry about or manage here is what to do if there is foul trouble. If there is foul trouble for Gasol, Bynum or Odom, then the other two players should be expected to play more minutes for that game. Gasol should be reasonably expected to be able to play 42 minutes if needed, while Odom and Bynum should both be able to go up to 38 apiece if one of the other three has their minutes shortened due to foul trouble. If two or more of these players is limited with foul trouble, only then should Josh Powell be brought in.

Summation

The Lakers have a lot of depth, and have one of the best benches in the league. I saw a quote the other day saying the Lakers went 13 players deep, and there is some truth to that, but the reality is that in the playoffs the best teams lean on their top players more than they do in the regular season. All that depth has hopefully helped the Lakers get through the grueling 82 regular season games with their most important players not being worn down too much; but the reason for that is so that those top players can now play a lot of minutes and carry the team without the 9, 10, 11 and 12th men on the bench being expected to do much more than cheer a lot and keep ready in case of an injury or excessive foul trouble for the players ahead of them.

As good as the Lakers' depth is, their real strength lies in all the talent at the top of their rotation, not the relatively good amount of talent at the bottom of it. The Lakers have seven players who should be getting the bulk of the minutes right now (Kobe, Gasol, Bynum, Odom, Ariza, Fisher and Brown) and they have two players who should be getting some spot minutes (Luke & Sasha), but that should be it. Farmar, Morrison and Powell should mainly be there to support their teammates and be ready in case they're needed, but it's time to officially shorten the rotation.

Is It Cheating Not To Try?

Josh Tucker — Tue, 14 Apr 2009 04:18:12 -0000

Typically, the general goal in the NBA is to win as much as possible. In general, a higher seed means better odds in the Playoffs.

But not always.

So is it wrong not to try? Or are there times when a chance at better overall success makes it okay to lose today?

In a recent post at Detroit Bad Boys, a Pistons fan suggested that the Magic wanted not part of the #2 seed and (at the time) a potential matchup with the Pistons — and that they'd use any excuse necessary to stay behind Boston in the standings and avoid Detroit in the playoffs.

While I won't be accusing any team in this league of deliberately trying to lose, it raises an interesting question: As part of an overall strategy intended to foster greater overall success, is it cheating to essentially let the other team win?

Allow me to present a more relative scenario to this audience. Currently, the Jazz occupy the eighth seed in the Western Conference. But they are only one game behind the Mavericks. With a Dallas win tonight, Utah's odds of regaining the seventh seed have decreased. Nonetheless, if the Jazz were to win their last game, and the Mavericks were to lose theirs, the Jazz (who own the tiebreaker due to a better conference record) would regain the seventh seed.

While this would require a very specific series of events — only the combination of a Utah victory and a Dallas loss would propel the Jazz into the seventh seed — it's certainly very possible. The Mavs' final regular season opponent is the very capable Houston Rockets.

Here's where this gets interesting: It just so happens that Utah's final game is in Los Angeles. (No, not against the Clippers.)

As bob banshee mentioned earlier today:

It’s fair to say many of us would have preferred avoiding the Jazz in the first round, even with their current slump. The Mavs, Blazers, Hornets would be a sweep….I see this series going 6 or 7.

Regarding a series against the Jazz, AzFatty elaborates:

Although the bruises won’t show up on many of these players, trust me, they are there.

We'll talk more about preferred playoff paths in the near future, but I think it's safe to say that as far as playoff opponents go, most of us Lakers fans would agree with bob and AzFatty in preferring the Mavericks to the Jazz. Though there's no real doubt in our minds that the Lakers would emerge with a win in either series (sorry, Jazz and Mavs fans!); it's Utah's physicality that bothers us. We're fairly confident that we'll get to the Finals — and we'd like to be the more rested, less banged up team when we get there.

Meanwhile, the Cavaliers have now locked up the best record in the league, and since the Lakers #1 seed in the West isn't in question, the motivation to continue playing hard is much less now than it was a few days ago.

So, considering that Houston has a good chance of beating Dallas on Wednesday... wouldn't it make sense for the Lakers to "rest their star players" on Tuesday, most likely resulting in a Jazz win? In that scenario, if the Rockets do beat the Mavericks, the Lakers will face a significantly easier first round opponent — on the body, if not on the scoreboard.

I put it to you again: Is it wrong not to try, in situations where a win is really not in the team's best interest, overall?

The immediate answer would seem to be, Yes, it absolutely is wrong! But I'm not convinced.

If I may be so bold as to compare the NBA season to a war, and each game to a battle, then doesn't that blur the moral lines a bit? After all, the goal is to win the war. If that means implementing a battle plan that results in facing a weaker opponent, that's called good strategy. (See: Lose the battle, win the war.)

I know that this is probably considered border-line "tanking," and currently, that's considered unethical. But then, there was a time in war when fighting from cover was unethical. There was a time when officers were off limits. Now, it is considered perfectly valid to fight from cover and take out any officers. In fact, it's considered stupid not to. Protect your generals and colonels, because if I see them, they're fair game! (For that matter, we've got smart bombs now, so even if I don't see them, they might still be fair game!)

Of course, another point to consider is how that specific game affects the fans. You all know this argument well. Fans pay good money to see the game, and they pay to see Kobe, not DJ Mbenga. Thus, intentionally benching the stars seems unfair to those fans who paid to see the game.

Even then, I'm not convinced. Sure, the fan experience may be less than ideal for that single game — but the strategic move, by providing an easier and less physically draining road to the Finals, could increase the Lakers' overall championship odds. And you can't tell me that a championship isn't in the interest of the fans.

So I ask you: Would it be wrong for the Lakers to bench their starters and let the Jazz win? Is it wrong for the Magic to be perfectly satisfied with the third seed, and not try very hard to catch the Celtics for the second seed?

You tell me.

UPDATE: It seems my poll would have been better with a fourth option: No — it's not wrong, but I still want the Lakers to try for the win.

A bit to my surprise, most of the commenters seem to be okay with the idea of letting a game go if it is truly in the best interest of the team. In fact, it seems to me that many of the "No" voters had no ethical objection to losing a game if it is in the team's best interest, strategically; instead, most of them felt for other reasons — such as reintegrating Bynum, improving team chemistry with lineup changes, gaining a psychological advantage over Utah, and keeping the starters in rhythm — that the best option, strategically, was still to beat Utah, even though it means facing them in the first round.

Be sure to check out some of the great discussion below.

Poll

Should the Lakers bench their starters and give the Jazz the win tomorrow?

No — they have to try and win, it's wrong not to

135 votes

Yes — it's ethically questionable/wrong, but they should do it anyways

36 votes

Yes — the game doesn't matter; the end result of winning a championship is better for everyone

92 votes

263 votes | Poll has closed