SB Nation - DeSagana Diop

AI Meets With Sixers; Bobcats Looking for Big Man Help

David Arnott — Mon, 30 Nov 2009 22:01:03 -0000

Two developing stories are popping up today that deserve some attention. First, Allen Iverson has reportedly met with Sixers management. I'm generally concerned about AI as a fan of the league, but more specifically concerned with his plans because he and Larry Brown seem to have a professional relationship without closure. Bringing in AI won't further any of our goals, so I hope all this AI commentary that Brown's doing really is just his way of encouraging Iverson to keep plugging away and is not his way of hinting to others in the Bobcats brass that they need to move one of the other guards to make room for him.

Second, speaking of the front office, Adrian Wojnarowski's Twitter feed has this nugget:

Golden State and Charlotte front office's still scouring landscape for bigs, league execs say, but struggling to find do-able deals.

(Via GSoM)

What does that mean? I have no idea. If we're going to trade Diop for a power forward type, who could we possibly get, considering Diop's got one of the worst contracts in the league? Really, if we're looking for big man help, there's an entire minor league with semi-competent to competent big men to fill out the rotation. ~~This is what ten-day contracts are for!~~ (Ten-day contracts can't be offered yet, so...) Or, other than the Robert Swifts and Rob Kurzes and Rod Bensons of the world, they could seek out any of the freely available guys who are floating out there, hoping against hope for a workout or fresh start with an NBA team. Mark Blount is persona non grata in Timberwolf land. Darius Miles might have something left in the tank. There are options outside of making a trade.

Game 11 Recap: Blazers 80, Bobcats 74

Dave — Sun, 15 Nov 2009 05:00:56 -0000

More photos » by Rick Havner - AP

BOOOOO!!! You STINK! I've scored more than that in a game all by myself! A blind man could have put this team togeth...oh wait.

Browse more photos »

As reported below Travis Outlaw has suffered a stress fracture in his left foot. Updates as they become available.

This was another nice win by the Blazers on a much less than perfect night. They're starting to make a habit of this. I don't know whether that's good or bad, but I'm quite pleased that they won.

The game started out with the Blazers making a concerted effort to go to their stars. Roy, Aldridge, and Oden took the shots coming out of the gate. Only Oden was successful initially. Charlotte, on the other hand, did everything they could to get the ball inside. Unfortunately they came face to face with the Block Ness Monster in the form of Greg Oden, who swiftly taught them that jumpers are the better part of valor. They hung with the Blazers in the first quarter from the perimeter as both sides took mostly outside shots (almost universally missed) peppered with a few layups. The score was knotted at 18 after one.

The second period started with Portland's offense DOA as again they took the easy way out and lofted it over the top. With Oden having been out since the 7:22 mark of the first quarter with foul trouble there was nobody to buck the trend. Charlotte simply packed the inside on defense, waited for the rebound, then tried to run out. They had a fair amount of success but their attack wasn't explosive enough to get them up by more than 8. Finally after a painful series of turnovers and 20+ foot misses Andre Miller broke the ice, getting fouled on his way to the bucket and converting the free throws. Then Roy drove for a layup. All of a sudden the light went on and it was time to administer the spankings. Every point after was either at the rim, at the foul line, or off of a clear (and much closer) jumper. The Blazers went on an 18-2 run to finish the quarter up 8, having been down by the same amount halfway through.

One of the nice things about the Blazers in this winning stretch is that they've taken starts and ends of periods seriously, especially the start of the third. Tonight was no exception. They repeated the attack from the top of the game, going to Oden, Aldridge, and Roy with one Miller jumper thrown in. The big three ballooned the lead to 16 in less than 5 minutes. At that point Oden left the game and again the interior offense came to a halt. Had every fan in Charlotte simultaneously left their lights on in the parking lot the Blazers still could have provided them all jumpers. On the other hand it might not have worked as they couldn't find the post to save their lives. On the other end Charlotte started getting layups and tip-ins. Lo and behold, it's a four-point game after three.

Oden scored the first four points of the final period but by that time Charlotte was in no mood to cede the game. They scrapped hard, hit some jumpers, grabbed some rebounds, and tried to wrest it away. At this point Rudy Fernandez came in and provided some energy play to keep the Blazers in it, jumping dribblers and grabbing rebounds. Charlotte hit some threes but not enough to put them over the top. The Blazers made their free throws, weathered the obligatory Tyson Chandler whiny-soft-tough-guy temper tantrum (he wisely made sure Przybilla wasn't in the game this time), watched the refs miss a second-foul-in-the-last-two-minutes call, and still came out ahead 80-74 in a game filled with mistakes for everyone.

In a game featuring 8 assists for the Blazers (yikes!) you know this one was about individual efforts. Credit the Big Three, Miller, and Fernandez. Portland again held the opponent to sub-37% shooting. Gerald Wallace was held to 12 points on the strength of Portland's interior defenders and nobody else outside of Boris Diaw could make a difference. After they were thwarted early on the Bobcats stayed out of the middle for far too long and ended up paying the price. Portland made 21 foul shots to Charlotte's 8. The Blazers also moderated their turnovers. The only area where Charlotte did what they wanted was offensive rebounds, of which they collected 16, likely due to Oden being limited to 17 minutes of play.

Individual Notes

Greg Oden was a game-changer again, as should be evident by his name coming up every second sentence heretofore. He finished a perfect 4-4 from the field, confounding Charlotte defenders, tallying 8 points. He added 4 rebounds and 4 blocks. The 17 minutes were all about foul trouble. He ended up fouling out too, providing some justification for Nate's "Two fouls and you're down" rule. The perimeter defenders left him exposed on a couple drives. It wasn't that obnoxious, but all you need is two whistles to turn a 30-minute, 4-foul night into a 15-minute ejection.

LaMarcus Aldridge had a rough offensive night at 4-11 and 11 points, losing the scoring duel to Diaw. It didn't matter because the guys surrounding him were better and because he kept active despite missing. I like the energy LaMarcus has been putting out during this streak. He's a guy who could be demanding 18-20 shots per game but he's working for the team. Don't lose sight of that despite the rocky offensive start to the season.

Brandon Roy was on tonight and played a fairly complete game. You never noticed him taking over. He pretty much did it in the flow. 25 points, 7 rebounds, 5 assists, 4 turnovers. His teammates helped him with Wallace too.

Andre Miller played an aggressive game tonight, doing everything from driving to hitting baseline jumpers to taking D.J. Augustin in the post and making him look about 4'9" tall. He helped spearhead the much-needed lane attack. 5-12, 5-5 from the line, 15 points, 6 rebounds, 1 assist. Don't let the assist worry you. It wasn't that kind of night.

Steve Blake shot 10 three-pointers tonight and hit 2. Every field goal attempt was from beyond the arc. He did dribble-penetrate though and he picked up a couple of assists to go along with his 8 points and 4 rebounds.

Rudy Fernandez provided a lift in the fourth when everybody else looked tired. The game almost looked like it was going south until he stepped in. Like Blake, every field goal attempt came from beyond the arc but he hit 2-5 instead of 2-10. 10 points, 7 rebounds in 26 minutes.

Joel Przybilla tried to keep the middle safe and picked up 6 boards in 26 minutes. It wasn't his greatest game but he didn't hurt us either.

Martell Webster missed all three of his shot attempts in 11 minutes. At least he collected 2 rebounds. Juwon Howard played 12 minutes, hit a shot and a free throw, and got 0 rebounds...same as Charlotte's DeSagana Diop. Except Diop didn't dress tonight.

Final Thoughts and Links

4-0 on a five-game road swing. 4-1 is the worst that can happen. I don't care who you are, that's fine work. I'd give equal chances for a Blazer win or a huge blowout in Atlanta's favor Monday. Portland also has to watch on that first game back home as the tendency will be to relax. But none of that takes away 4-0 on a five-game road swing.

Boxscore

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See your Jersey Contest scores here and enter Monday's game at the form page. NOTE that we have a TRAVIS OUTLAW'S MINUTES QUESTION in that form. Just put "0" and take your 10 points.

--Dave (blazersub@yahoo.com)

Game 11 Preview: Blazers vs. Bobcats

Dave — Sat, 14 Nov 2009 07:30:55 -0000

Game Time: 4:00 Pacific TV: Comcast and NBATV

We won't try to sell the Bobcats as a good team because they really haven't been. Their 3-5 start this season is typical of their success level. But they've been good against Portland, especially at home, and that's enough. Charlotte has some nice individual talent and the kind of energy that gives the Blazers fits. It's like Portland comes in expecting a slightly sub-par team and gets jabbed in the face, stumbles, and eventually is overcome. Hopefully, road-weary as they undoubtedly are, the Blazers will come loaded for bear and not squirrel tonight, ready to match energy with energy.

Small forward Gerald Wallace leads Charlotte's attack and he's been particularly problematic for the Blazers over the years. He's never been a good jump shooter. When he's clicking he spends most of his time blitzing up and down the court trying to get the ball into the lane and finish strong. Even though the whole league knows what he's up to, he succeeds. He's just got the knack. Plus this year he's providing 12 rebounds a game, bolstered by 20- and 18- rebound performances late last month against the Nets and Hawks. Unsurprisingly he also generates steals and free throws, hallmarks of aggression. He's the kind of player who is no threat when you have him locked up but as soon as he's loose you might as well run for the hills because your bases are belonging to him.

Charlotte has surrounded Wallace with experienced, heady players, a little short on the offensive end but good game technicians and rebounders. Raja Bell doesn't seem like much until you see him handcuff Brandon Roy one-on-one. He can hit a three off of the check-down pass and he's capable of finding the open man himself. Power forward Boris Diaw is a fine all-around contributor who will take whatever you give him without giving you mistakes back in return. Raymond Felton is a point guard who likes to score (with mixed results, especially this year) but also racks up the assist numbers. He's not someone you'd hang your hat on but he can bust out with the big game.

Over the summer the Bobcats swapped franchise-level draftee Emeka Okafor to the Hornets for Tyson Chandler. Despite posting some decent rebounding numbers Chandler's effectiveness has been limited so far, partially from foul trouble and partially because of a non-existent offensive game. With Wallace the only superstar-potential scorer on the team and him needing to run to be at his best the Bobcats can't afford a no-show from any of their other offensive players. You don't have to give them 20 points but you better be able to give them 12. Chandler's around 6.8 right now.

For the most part the bench players mirror the rest of the team: experienced but two-dimensional. You know the names Flip Murray (slasher), Vladimir Radmanovic (shooter), Nazr Mohammed (rebounder), Stephen Graham (energy guy), and DeSagana Diop (requisite out-of-shape player in Larry Brown's doghouse). All of these guys have been elsewhere. All have been passed on. It's like you tried to build a bench that would neither fail nor succeed. That's great if you have a starting lineup like Boston's. It's not so good when your first five give you maybe 55 points combined. You need a spark off the bench. It's just not here.

The best hope for that spark comes from second-year point guard D.J. Augustin. He started the year like gangbusters but lately has just looked like a buster, posting 7 points and 5 assists in his last three games combined. He's speedy but he has trouble defending. He's also a point guard without a lot of clear options to pass to.

The Bobcats hold their opponents to 89.6 points per game, which looks pretty good until you realize that they only score 83.5 points themselves. The Golden State Warriors score that many by accident. They play at a glacial pace and are the only team scoring fewer fast-break points per game than the Blazers. Even so they turn the ball over enough to make the vein in Larry Brown's forehead bulge. Slow pace and high turnovers is a toxic combination. They are good rebounders, especially at the offensive end. This helps make up for their poor shooting. And by "poor" we mean "unacceptable". Their main offensive advantage comes at the free throw line, where they gain around 4 points on the opposition. It's not enough.

Pivotal Points of the Game

1. For the most part if you keep Wallace down you keep the Bobcats down. He's had 15 or more rebounds every time they've won this season. They've also won both times he's scored 18 or more. Most of that offensive damage was from the foul line. He's shooting in putrid fashion this year. So...keep crash off of the boards and off of the foul line and you'll probably win.

2. The Blazers have made good rebounding teams look inferior this year and they need to do so tonight.

3. Pack the middle. Every once in a while Diaw or Felton will get hot but for the most part the Bobcats aren't distance shooters. The only significant exception is Bell, whom you don't leave open.

4. Somebody other than Brandon is going to have to score tonight. It's time for the Websters, Outlaws, and Fernandezeses of the world to step up.

5. They like to generate extra offense by turning you over. Take care of the ball.

Final Thoughts

Be sure to visit one of my favorite blogs, RufusonFire.

Here's ye old Jersey Contest form for tonight's game: Jersey Contest form

--Dave (blazersub@yahoo.com)

Ryan Hollins, pt. ii: defense

Stop-n-Pop — Thu, 13 Aug 2009 11:36:49 -0000

OK, I want each and every one of you to close your eyes and think back to last season. The Wolves are playing the Atlanta Hawks and Mike Bibby is bringing the ball up the floor. As he crosses the mid-court line he begins to angle to the left just as Al Horford pushes off from the low block and moves towards the right wing. At this point it becomes obvious to everyone in the entire building that the Hawks are going to run a screen-and-roll with Bibby and Horford. One would think that Horford's guardian, Big Al Jefferson, would be preparing himself to hedge on the screen or to pass off coverage in a switch or to even jump the whole damn thing in a trap with a relatively slow point guard like Bibby initiating the action. One would be thinking incorrectly.

Instead of any of these three options, we Wolves fans are all too aware of what happens next: Big Al meanders out in the general direction of the screen and flaps his arms in the direction of Horford as the big fella makes a dramatic cut to the basket the second he sees Big Al lollygagging out towards what would have been the point of attack.

Repeat this sort of ineptitude a couple hundred times throughout the season. Rinse. Repeat again.

Folks, there are no two ways about it: last season, the Wolves' front court displayed some of the most atrocious pick-and-roll defense I have ever witnessed. Between general indifference (Jefferson), rookie inexperience (Kevin Love), and role-playing levels of non-excellence (Mark Madsen + Brian Cardinal) the Wolves 100%, absolutely, completely, and terminally lacked a big man who could properly switch, hedge, or jump a pick-and-roll...which, funny, just happens to be the single most important play that makes the NBA go 'round.

Enter Mr. Ryan Hollins.

Do not get me wrong. Hollins is not the be-all/end-all of defensive pick-and-roll prowess. What he is is the only player on the Wolves' roster who a) has size and b) can move well enough to be an effective defensive big on the pick-and-roll. I think Love is a smart and savvy enough player to eventually master this sort of thing but Hollins gives the Wolves a 7-footer who can provide...ummm...what's the word (we Wolves fans haven't seen this sort of thing in quite a while)...defensive flexibility, albeit in short stretches and with something of a negative pull on the offensive end of the court.

Hollins is a remarkably agile big man. He can handle switches, hedges, and jumping the point of attack for a trap with enough athletic juice to recover to his proper spot in the lane. Again, I'll remind our readers that we're talking about a backup big who will be the 3rd or 4th front court player on the roster, but this is a skill that is foreign to the current roster. Hollins may not be the best athletic defensive big; he may foul a ton and rely on overly-aggressive plays on the ball, but the simple fact remains that he is the only forward or center on the current roster who can show on a screen and make his way back into position strictly on the basis of his physical gifts. This is a big thing. KG was the last player who was able to perform this sort of task with a Minnesota across his chest, and no, I'm not comparing the two players; rather, I'm simply saying that Hollins is athletic enough to do something no other big on the roster can do and that, by itself, means something.

Beyond physicality, there are some things that stand out about Hollins' defensive game:

(via the always-excellent Basketball Prospectus)

First of all, let us clearly state that we are dealing with Small Sample Size Theater (Brian Cardinal factored in about 290 more possessions than the Wolves' newest big). Secondly, the thing that most stands out about Hollins (in his very limited court time) is that he holds his opponents to production well below what they normally put up (dMULT). The kicker is that he plays against competition that is significantly less than NBA average (dQUAL). Let's take a quick look at his on/off numbers (via the wonderful 82Games.com)

Many stats are shown on a 'per 48 minute' basis

Stat	ON Court	OFF Court	Net
Minutes	260	3700	6%
Offense: Pts per 100 Poss.	106.2	111.8	-5.6
Defense: Pts per 100 Poss.	108.1	109.1	-1.0
Net Points per 100 Possessions	-1.9	+2.7	-4.6
Points Scored	513	7830	-7317
Points Allowed	532	7649	-7117
Net Points	-19	+181	-200

Here are his numbers from Charlotte:

Many stats are shown on a 'per 48 minute' basis

Stat	ON Court	OFF Court	Net
Minutes	184	3801	4%
Offense: Pts per 100 Poss.	111.9	105.5	+6.4
Defense: Pts per 100 Poss.	97.6	107.8	-10.1
Net Points per 100 Possessions	+14.3	-2.3	+16.5
Points Scored	376	7301	-6925
Points Allowed	336	7445	-7109
Net Points	+40	-144	+184

Please keep in mind that Hollins is a 10 mpg backup (and that we're talking about less than 500 minutes of floor time), but what we can see here is that he is a better performer on defense than he is on offense. This general sentiment is also played out in his adj +/-. As always, the kicker with +/- and on/off stats for guys like Hollins is that they often log minutes without all of the team's best players surrounding them. Does that mean something for the Wolves? We'll have to wait and see.

The bottom line with Hollins the defender is that he is an incredibly athletic and agile big who has the potential to defend the pick-and-roll, get back into position, trap, and provide some weak-side shot blocking help. He brings a skill set to the Wolves that simply did not exist on the roster before his acquisition. Love and Big Al are not athletic dynamos and they will never be able to do the things that Hollins is naturally capable of. That being said, we're still talking about a guy who will likely play under 20 mpg (my guess is 13-17 mpg) and who will put up most of his numbers against non-starting 5-man rotations. If Hollins can maintain his dMULT numbers, and if he can perform at or slightly above replacement-level, the Wolves will have made a fairly savvy move.

While this is cliche on several levels, at the end of the day, Hollins' performance will be measured by how much he hustles. There is no pressure on this guy to not foul. There is no pressure on this guy to make big shots. All he has to do is go out there and go 150 mph. I really don't know if this is his type of personality (it could be judging by what we saw in the playoffs) but he is going to be placed in a position where an up-tempo athletic game such as his should be rewarded on both ends of the court. If he can use his athleticism to be an effective defender on the p-n-r with Love or Big Al, he will immediately have found a good home, as both of these guys need the things that Hollins brings to the table.

All in all I'm pretty happy with this signing. While Hollins seems to be a fairly awful 1/2 court offensive player he does have some interesting potential when it comes to transition play and defense. In terms of improvement, he looks like he could bulk up a bit, hit the boards with more aggressiveness, and avoid as many jump shots as possible. Running, dunking, defending, and crashing the boards should be this guy's MO from day one. As for his contractual worth, frequent poster McCleak put it nicely in a recent comment thread with this little ditty:

Hollins had a Win Score last year of 1.0. If you look at centers with a WS between 0.5-1.5 (DeSagana Diop, Theo Ratliff, Aaron Gray, DeAndre Jordan, Kosta Koufos, Jamaal Magloire, Robin Lopez, Hollins, Spencer Hawes, Robert Swift, and Olekisy Pecherov)*, you see that they earned $19,420,831 last season, for an average of $1,618,402.58 per player. So it’s more than the average contract for a center of his caliber last season. However, if you limit it to people who have signed second contracts (Diop, Ratliff, Magloire), than you see a contract total of $7,180,162 or $2,393,387.33 per player. And that’s almost exactly what Hollins received.

The guy is being paid at (or very near to) market value and he has some potential within the style of ball the Wolves hope to play as well as the roster they are shaping up to have. For me, the biggest thing about this deal is that Hollins represents a player that a) cost the Wolves' front office a considerable amount of scouting and research and b) is about as far away from a McHale-type signing as could be imagined. This is a guy you take a swing on only after a significant amount of research and you do so to have him play in a fairly specific role. That has to be worth something by itself, right? It sure as hell beats Mark Blount. Would Kevin McHale have even known about Hollins? Did UCLA play an NCAA game at the Dome during Hollins' time in Westwood?

What say you ?

Why We Have To Consider Trading Ray Allen

Jeff Clark — Mon, 08 Jun 2009 12:00:20 -0000

Lets get one thing straight right off the bat. I'm a huge fan of Ray Allen. He's one of my favorite Celtics and I the only guy I'd rather have taking a last second shot is named Larry Bird. I'm completely comfortable hanging onto Ray Allen and I think he gives us a great chance at another banner.

With that said, as the title suggests, I am here to tell you that we have to at least think about trading Ray Allen.

The biggest reason is simply that his value may never be higher in a trade. He doesn't just have an expiring contract. He's got 19.7M in salary that we can match up with just about anyone in the league. Let me put this in perspective for you. If for some reason the Miami Heat decided that they just can't stand T-Mobile commercials, we could take Dwyane Wade off their hands and still have enough money left to throw Michael Beasley in the deal too. That's what close to $20M could buy you in salaries. Of course, just because we might be willing to buy doesn't mean other teams are selling.

For that I give you one of the oddest offseasons in recent memory. You might have heard a few times lately that teams have an eye on the 2010 offseason. Considering how New Jersey, New York and other teams made set-up moves for 2010 last year, I can only imagine what kind of posturing will happen this year.

So you need to find a team that is looking to drop salary for 2010. Ideally you'd want to only take back guys that have 2 or 3 years left on their deals (so you can maintain some flexibility of your own as Pierce and KG age). The question isn't who would be willing to deal for Ray. The question is "who wouldn't?"

Before we start naming names, let me remind everyone that even if we decide to trade Ray, we have several timeframes to make the deal. The offseason would seem logical. More teams are willing to make moves in the offseason and on draft night in particular. Then there's the option of trading him during the season - at the trade deadline for instance.

Consider this dream scenario: Team A trades for Ray Allen, shedding nearly 20M per year in salary after this season. They are out of the running for the playoffs, so to further cut costs, they buy out Ray Allen and he spends 30 days resting his ankles and returns to the Celtics for the stretch run.

Ok, enough lead in. You want names. I'll preface this with this caveat: I don't have any rumors supporting these ideas. Some of them are insanely lopsided in our favor. Some we wouldn't even do unless Ray suffered a career ending injury. I'm just offering you a pallet of ideas to discuss and pick apart if you like. Enjoy.

The Hornets tried to trade Chandler last year and Posey wasn't the missing piece they thought he might be.
Ray Allen for T. Chandler & J. Posey

Say the Bobcats decide to shed salary.
Ray Allen for G. Wallace & D. Diop

Say the Bucks become desperate for flexibility.
Ray Allen for A. Bogut & R. Jefferson

Say Gilbert Arenas has another season ending surgery and the Wizards have buyers remorse and start selling off. Here's two for them.
Ray Allen for A. Jamison & C. Butler
Ray Allen for A. Jamison & B. Haywood

Utah has been trying to figure out what to do with Kirilenko for years.
Ray Allen for A. Kirilenko & R. Brewer

Say we sign or trade for a near-All Star shooting guard. Would you turn around and trade Ray Allen for an entire bench?
Ray Allen for J. Przybilla, M. Webster, T. Outlaw, S. Blake
Ray Allen for E. Watson, N. Collison, N. Kristic

Will any of these happen? No, probably not. The idea here is to illustrate that Ray gives us a ton of buying power if we chose to use him. I'm pretty sure we would only trade him if we got knocked over with a fantastic deal by a desperate team. But it only takes one desperate team to make that happen. This is why Danny will never say "we are 100% never going to trade Ray Allen.

I'm sure I've missed a lot of options and I'm also sure that many of you have ideas of your own. Feel free to offer up your own ideas in the Trade Ideas forums. By the way, I'm also sure that several people will only look at the trades, not read what I wrote in the intro, and proceed to tell me how terrible and/or unrealistic all my ideas are. That's fine, I'm ready for it. At least I put some names on the table to discuss. Enjoy.

Open Thread II: 2009 NBA Draft Lottery- Welcome to the 2009 Playoffs Warriors fans!

Atma Brother ONE — Tue, 19 May 2009 07:15:10 -0000

UPDATE (4:06 pm): Originally posted on May 19, 2009 12:15 AM PDT. Bumped up for the big show, but you better believe it's going back down if the Warriors fall to #10. Whether the Warriors land the #1 pick or slip 3 spots- remember GSoM is a family show!

----------------

How's this for dedication? We had an open thread up for today's big event TWO whole months in advance!

It's playoff time in the Bay! It's time for our annual installment of the NBA Lottery.

Photo: Warriors.com

After the jump a look at the 7 different possible scenarios for the Warriors this afternoon and how they've worked out the past 10 years for the teams drafting in those respective slots.

Odds via Wikipedia

#1 PICK (4.3% chance): A dream come true.

Hey you know GSoM did win the 2009 NBA Blogger Draft lottery, so maybe our luck will continue. Blake Griffin is the consensus #1 overall pick and I doubt the Warriors deviate from the norm here. Griffin would be a god-send and looks like a real deal franchise player.

Here's the last 10 #1 overall picks:

2008: Derrick Rose (Chicago Bulls)
2007: Greg Oden (Portland TrailBlazers)
2006: Andrea Bargnani (Toronto Raptors)
2005: Andrew Bogut (Milwaukee Bucks)
2004: Dwight Howard (Orlando Magic)
2003: LeBron James (Cleveland Cavaliers)
2002: Yao Ming (Houston Rockets)
2001: Kwame Brown (Washington Wizards)- BUST
2000: Kenyon Martin (New Jersey Nets)
1999: Elton Brand (Chicago Bulls)

#2 PICK (4.9% chance): So close, but not close enough.

The pundits seem to be picking Ricky Rubio to go #2, but is he really that much better than the next point guard on the board Brandon Jennings who is "mocked" to go as low as 7? I don't know.

#2's since 1999:

2008: Michael Beasley (Miami Heat)
2007: Kevin Durant (Seattle SuperSonics)
2006: LaMarcus Aldridge (Chicago Bulls)
2005: Marvin Williams (Atlanta Hawks)
2004: Emeka Okafor (Charlotte Bobcats)
2003: Darko Miicic (Detroit Pistons)- BUST
2002: Jay Williams (Chicago Bulls)- BUST
2001: Tyson Chandler (LA Clippers)
2000: Stromile Swift (Vancouver Grizzlies)- BUST
1999: Steve Francis (Vancouver Grizzlies)

#3 PICK (5.8% chance): In any other year this would be a real blessing.

But this year? Not too exciting, but who knows?

2008: O.J. Mayo (Minnesota Timberwolves)

2007: Al Horford (Atlanta Hawks)

2006: Adam Morrison (Charlotte Bobcats)- BUST

2005: Deron WIlliams (Utah Jazz)

2004: Ben Gordon (Chicago Bulls)

2003: Carmelo Anthony (Denver Nuggets)

2002: Mike Dunleavy (Golden State Warriors)- BUST

2001: Pau Gasol (Vancouver Grizzlies)

2000: Darius Miles (LA Clippers)- BUST

1999: Baron Davis (Charlotte Hornets)

#7 PICK (60.0% chance): We tanked it for this one.

Thanks to that marvelous extra tanking by Nellie and crew this is where the Warriors are currently slotted. If the Warriors don't move up to one of the top 3 spots and none of the teams below them move up they'll be drafting here.

Just for reference here are the last 10 players drafted at the #7 spot:

2008: Eric Gordon (LA Clippers)
2007: Corey Brewer (Minnesota Timberwolves)
2006: Randy Foye (Minnesota Timberwolves)- BUST
2005: Charlie Villanueva (Toronto Raptors)
2004: Luol Deng (Phoenix Suns)
2003: Kirk Hinrich (Chicago Bulls)
2002: Nene Hilario (Denver Nuggets)
2001: Eddie Griffin (New Jersey Nets)- BUST
2000: Chris Mihm (Chicago Bulls)- BUST
1999: Richard Hamilton (Washington Wizards)

#8 PICK (23.2% chance): Moving down...

2008: Joe Alexander (Milwaukee Bucks)

2007: Brandan Wright (Charlotte Bobcats)

2006: Rudy Gay (Houston Rockets)

2005: Channing Frye (New York Knicks)

2004: Rafael Araujo (Toronto Raptors)- BUST

2003: T.J. Ford (Milwaukee Bucks)

2002: Chris WIlcox (LA Clippers)

2001: DeSagana Diop (Cleveland Cavaliers)

2000: Jamal Crawford (Cleveland Cavaliers)

1999: Andre Miller (Cleveland Cavaliers)

#9 PICK (1.8% chance): 2 teams leap-frogged the Warriors.

2008: D.J. Augustin (Charlotte Bobcats)

2007: Joakim Noah (Chicago Bulls)

2006: Patrick O'Bryant (Golden State Warriors)- BUST

2005: Ike Diogu (Golden State Warriors)- BUST

2004: Andre Iguodala (Philadelphia 76ers)

2003: Michael Sweetney (New York Knicks)- BUST

2002: Amare Stoudemire (Phoenix Suns)

2001: Rodney White (Detroit Pistons)- BUST

2000: Joel Przybilla (Houston Rockets)

1999: Shawn Marion (Phoenix Suns)

#10 PICK (less than 0.01% chance): God is not a Warriors fan

This would mean THREE teams with better records this past season and consequently worse lottery odds for a top 3 pick moved up ahead of the Warriors. This would mean the 2009 NBA Draft Lottery went something like this: 1) New York Knicks, 2) Phoenix Suns, and 3) Charlotte Bobcats. Looks funny huh?

Here's the last 10 #10 picks:

2008: Brook Lopez (New Jersey Nets)

2007: Spencer Hawes (Sacramento Kings)

2006: Mouhamed Sene (Seattle SuperSonics)- BUST

2005: Andrew Bynum (LA Lakers)

2004: Luke Jackson (Cleveland Cavaliers)- BUST

2003: Jarvis Hayes (Washington Wizards)

2002: Caron Butler (Miami Heat)

2001: Joe Johnson (Boston Celtics)

2000: Kenyon Dooling (Orlando Magic)- BUST

1999: Jason Terry (Atlanta Hawks)

On a side note, it's too bad the Golden State Warriors unlike the NY Times didn't pay attention to Polling GSoM. We wanted Thunder to rep the Dubs in Secaucus, NJ, but it looks like new GM Larry Riley will be manning the ship. I would've loved to see Thunder, but I wish Riley the best.

Still...

It's PLAYOFF TIME in the Bay!

Poll

Where will the Golden State Warriors be drafting in the 2009 NBA Draft?

#7- They'll stay in the same spot

195 votes

#1- Hello Blake Griffin!

166 votes

#2- Ricky Rubio?

132 votes

#3- They'll move up 4 spots for the right to overpay someone

67 votes

#8- The Bricks, Craptors, Bucked, Net Loss, BETcats, Posers, or Sunny Delight will move up to the top 3

49 votes

#9- Ike Diogu, Patrick O'Bryant, and ??? (2 teams with better records than the Warriors will move up)

20 votes

#10- "Unstoppable Baby!" (THREE teams with better records than the Warriors will move up)

69 votes

698 votes | Poll has closed

Dominic McGuire, Washington Wizards Forward, Is On An Ignominious Streak

David Arnott — Wed, 25 Mar 2009 04:56:25 -0000

Tonight, the Bobcats will go for their 32nd win of the season, which would equal last season's mark with 11 games to play. Washington has not defeated a Southeastern Division opponent this year, which doesn't mean much except to emphasize the Wizards' doormatness. And if you look closely, perhaps you'll notice a convenient symbol for the Wizards' woes lurking in the box scores.

Washington lost a tough one to Chicago on Monday, 101-99. Among the amazing aspects of that game, Antawn Jamison took 27 shots, and... at first I thought this couldn't be right... Dominic McGuire played 41 minutes without scoring a single point.

I'm kind of shocked McGuire's recent play isn't drawing more attention; I'd love to know the last time an NBA player got 40 minutes or more in a game without scoring a point. More amazing? He didn't score a single point in the previous game, either.

Dude scored in the second quarter of the game against Denver on March 20, then didn't score again over the next 20:12 he played in that game. On March 21, he played 22:33 without scoring. Then, on March 23, he played 41:25 without scoring. That's mind-melting. That's 84 minutes and 10 seconds--and counting--without scoring. By a small forward-power forward tweener. In a way, it's the ultimate in simultaneously selfless and nihilistic play, because it's categorically not helping the team, but it's not necessarily hurting, either, and if McGuire's expected to D up and work the ball around to Antawn or JaVale, then so be it.

Just for kicks, I looked up Dennis Rodman's game logs with the Bulls because he was a guy who would play a lot of minutes without being expected to score much, if at all, and it turns outt he had a stretch of three straight games in 1998 in which he scored 0 points in each game and played at least 34 minutes in each. Of course, he was also grabbing double digit rebounds in two of them and didn't even attempt a shot in one. Of course, Michael Freaking Jordan and Scottie Pippen were on that team, too, so it's not like Rodman was being counted on to score. Of course.

More recently, Bruce Bowen has had plenty games in which he didn't score, but I didn't see back to back goose eggs, let alone a comparable stretch of scorelessness. What about Jeff McInnis, that scourge upon good basketball that set himself upon the Bobcats the past two years? Nope, nothing like McGuire's streak. Gana Diop has had long stretches without scoring, but nothing beyond about 45 minutes. This is something to keep an eye on.

Beat the Wiz. Get to 32. The franchise record is 33. Go Bobcats.

Bobcats Beat Kings; Rashad McCants Got His

David Arnott — Thu, 19 Mar 2009 03:33:18 -0000

When Rashad McCants--Rashad McCants!--is your second most effective player on the floor, after the still-raw rookie who got shoved around by several different Bobcats big men, that's a formula for losing, even when the 'Cats are having something of an off night for three quarters. The fourth quarter was the difference, where Charlotte finally pulled away, as expected, to win 104-88.

With Kevin Martin and Andres Nocioni both scratched, McCants and Jason Thompson were the bright spots in an otherwise horrid evening for the Kings. Together, they shot 16-29 from the field, scoring 42 points. Thompson was especially efficient at 6-9, with 11 rebounds. That was tempered by an up and down defensive performance, but he was probably the best player on the floor for Sacramento this night. McCants scored 30 points on 20 attempts, but didn't play any defense (as is his wont), and only tallied 1 assist and 1 board.

Everyone else on the Kings combined to shoot 18-58 from the field, or 31%. I mean, they took 87 shots to the Bobcats' 68! The Kings made 34 field goals, the Bobcats made 33, and Charlotte won going away because they went to the line for 23 more attempts than Sacramento.

For the Bobcats, Gerald Wallace's 25 and 12 should make opponents take special note that the old Crash is peeking out from under the quiet exterior. Check out his last seven games. He's been a terror in six of them; only the Spurs have held him in check.

Emeka Okafor stepped up to dominate Spencer Hawes on both ends of the floor. He put up 16 points, grabbed 10 rebounds, and blocked 4 shots.

===

A quick summation of Rashad McCants's thoughts during the course of the game:

Ball! Here! Now! I'm open! I made it! You didn't believe in me! Hear me roar! When they score, all it means is you can pass it to me now! Ball! Here! Now! What do you mean, "scoreboard"?

In case you can't tell, I was stunned to see McCants hoisting like Ben Gordon on a bender. And then, after he, improbably, reached the 30 point plateau, he jogged back down the court, pounding his chest and yelling something unintelligible through the arena sounds, seemingly oblivious to being behind in the fourth quarter.

===

-- I still can't tell if the crowd is cheering sarcastically or sincerely when Sean May plays in garbage time. Every time he touches the ball, there's a buzz in the building.

-- A moment that was not at all sarcastic played out as Gana Diop horribly missed three free throws, but as the referee prepared to give him the ball for his fourth, about half the crowd rose to its feet, cheering for him to make it. They hushed as he got the ball, and then he calmly drained it, running back on defense under a shower of whoops and applause.

Vescey: "Marcin Gortat Will be the Mehmet Okur of This Summer's Free Agent Class."

Ben Q Rock — Tue, 17 Mar 2009 18:57:55 -0000

Orlando Magic center Marcin Gortat shoots a layup against the Utah Jazz

Photo by Fernando Medina, NBAE/Getty Images

It's no secret around here that Marcin Gortat is one of my favorite players, and in a completely unironic way. The Magic's second-year reserve center, aka The Polish Hammer, aka The Warlock, has emerged as one of the league's best rebounders and shot-blockers on a per-minute basis. As of today, the only qualified players in the league who rebound at a better rate than Gortat are Portland's Joel Przybilla, Orlando's Dwight Howard, and the L.A. Clippers' Marcus Camby. Because Gortat backs up Howard, the league's best, highest-profile center, he had not received much acclaim outside the Orlando area. Somehow, I don't think Magic fans minded too much, as they don't want Gortat to play himself out of the Magic's price range this summer, when he will enter restricted free agency.

Like all good things, Marcin's relative obscurity had to come to an end. With some solid performances lately (13 points and 15 boards last week against Chicago, 8 points and 8 boards on Sunday against Utah), Gortat has quickly become one of the league's worst-kept secrets. They're even onto him in the Big Apple, where Peter Vescey (yes, I know) wrote the following in today's New York Post (HT: MagicMadness):

Orlando's Marcin Gortat will be the Mehmet Okur of this summer's free agent class. Dwight Howard's raw backup isn't going to come cheaply, but the team that collars him will have spent wisely on a guy guaranteed to average an easy double double.

After the jump, we'll explain how Okur's situation with Detroit relates to Gortat and how Gortat compares with some other similar free-agents-to-be.

Here's a quick rundown of Okur's history with Detroit, to which Vescey alludes: the Pistons made Okur their second-round draft choice in 2001, and he joined the team the following season. In his sophomore year, Okur averaged 9.6 points and 5.9 boards in 22.3 minutes per game while backing up Ben Wallace and Elden Campbell at the power positions, and took over Campbell's starting job from mid-December until early February, when Okur was forced out of the lineup due to back spasms. Detroit shuffled Okur back into the rotation once he was healthy, but there wasn't much room for him after they acquired Rasheed Wallace at the trading deadline. That trend continued into the playoffs, when Okur's minutes dropped to 11.5 per game. The Pistons went on to win the NBA championship, but the Utah Jazz were confident enough to offer the then-25-year-old Okur to a six-year deal worth $50 million, which was too much for Detroit's blood. In five seasons with Utah, Okur has become its 10th all-time leading scorer and has averaged 16.1 points and 7.9 rebounds per game, making one All-Star team as an injury replacement.

To be clear, no team will make Gortat (career averages: 3.5 points, 4.1 rebounds) an offer worth anywhere near half what Okur got, especially not in this economic climate. Right now, it's too early to guess what a more realistic figure for him might be, but statistically, he's almost on-par with three other young, high-energy, high-potential frontcourt reserves who are set to make a fortune this summer in free agency: New York's David Lee, Utah's Paul Millsap, and Boston's Leon Powe. Teams are already lining up around the block for Lee and Millsap, who may see Okur-like money this summer; Powe is not as highly coveted, but may find himself inking a deal worth roughly the mid-level exception, if not more. You can see a side-by-side comparison of all four players' cumulative career statistics by clicking here.

Clearly, Gortat is not on the same tier with those players in terms of offensive skill, although he is fairly efficient. Where he makes up for it, though, is on defense. Rebounding and shot-blocking are in short supply in today's NBA, so Gortat's facility in those two aspects of the game is valuable. And it's not as though he's an all-defense/no-offense stiff in the mold of DeSagana Diop. He's a two-way player, he's young, and the Magic won't have much money. If he continues to play this well, the odds of Orlando's retaining him are slim-to-none. But stranger things have happened. Last year, Houston Rockets forward Carl Landry averaged 8.1 points and 4.9 rebounds in only 16.9 minutes per game, yet only received a three-year, $9 million offer sheet from the Charlotte Bobcats. Houston stopped laughing with glee long enough to match the offer, retaining Landry at well below market value. The situation with Landry is the exception that proves the rule, but if nothing else it gives the Magic and their fans hope that Gortat can indeed stay in Orlando beyond this summer.

Spurs Beat Bobcats, 100-86

David Arnott — Wed, 11 Mar 2009 04:55:41 -0000

There's no use looking for a scapegoat. The Bobcats' loss to the Spurs in San Antonio, 100-86, was more a function of Spurs superiority than it was Bobcats inferiority, if that makes sense.

It comes down to this: Raymond Felton shot the ball 17 times from the field, and made only 5 attempts, one on a spinning desperation shot launched at the end of the third quarter. That's just not a good enough shooting night, and the Bobcats can't afford to have a mediocre game from any starter, because they're simply not good enough to hang with the league's elite while one of their core struggles mightily. But it's also what Felton does on a semi-regular basis. It's why his career stats are so utterly uninspiring. Some days he's on. Others, he's not.

Duncan did what he does. Parker did what he does, making Felton look lead-footed in the process. And Roger Mason, Jr., stepped in for Manu and nailed his threes. Game over. It wasn't enough that Okafor and Diop gave Duncan problems all night. It wasn't enough that Boris kept finding guys for baskets, leading the game with 8 assists. They had no one who could guard Parker--even Augustin--and Mr. Longoria took full advantage, scooting here and there as the Bobcats' guards tried to keep up, often ending up on an island, guarding a big man, while Parker sized up the situation.

It's okay. As Douglas Adams might have suggested, Don't Panic. 12-6 the rest of the way to get to 40 wins would be no small feat, but it's certainly within reach. We were supposed to lose this game. That it was a lively affair well into the fourth quarter, until the Spurs pulled away for good, speaks volumes to the improvement the Bobcats have achieved over the past year.