SB Nation - Pau Gasol

Game 27 Preview: Oklahoma City At Los Angeles Lakers

Zorgon — Tue, 22 Dec 2009 13:53:02 -0000

More photos » by Mark J. Terrill - AP

Last time, there was just no getting around the Laker defense. This time, it's looking like the same sad story.

Browse more photos »

This also counts as an open thread, so feel free to post your thoughts during the game here.

Time: 8:30 PM Central Standard Time

Place: The Staples Center, Los Angeles, California

TV: Fox Sports Oklahoma, Fox Sports West, NBA TV

Radio: WWLS The Sports Animal (98.1)

Enemy Blog(s): Silver Screen and Roll, With Malice, Forum Blue and Gold

Backstory: Ah, we meet our indestructible foes once again.

We've seen the Lakers twice already this season. The first time was an expression of almost pure joy, as the Thunder nearly upset the Lakers, even taking them to overtime. It was at a time where we felt the Thunder oculd conquer even the strongest of the NBA's teams, as we were 2-2 and beat the Magic a few games later. Then, the other game can be seen as a coming back to Earth moment, as the Thunder got pulverized by the better team, which then featured Pau Gasol.

But, what have the Lakers been doing since we last saw them? Winning. And Winning. One Loss to Utah. But then, more winning. Their record is 22-4. They're not going to set records or anything, but it's a record that no team would pass up or sneeze at. Needless to say, this game means a lot more to the Thunder than it does the Lakers. If the Lakers win, it's just another brick laid in the wall of victory. But, if the Thunder win, it would be a Titanic upset, and a huge boost to the Thunder as they would secure wrapping up the toughest part of their schedule at .500. It would also send a huge message to the league.

Needless to say though, the Lakers definitely aren't overlooking us. They know all too well that we can sneak up on tough opponents, and they'll want to make sure to put the Thunder away by the third quarter, or it could mean big trouble.

Below: Matchups, Prediction

Matchups:

Point Guard: Russell Westbrook vs. Derek Fisher

Yes, I'm doing these matchups in reverse order. Why? Well, I copy and pasted them from the last preview, in which they were in reverse order, and because it's the only matchup that we can win. Derek Fisher doesn't do much more than pass the ball, defend poorly, and shoot these days, so I'm glad we have Russell Westbrook on our side. He'll have a mildly productive night, but nothing special.

Shooting Guard: Thabo Sefolosha vs. Kobe Bryant

Now, here's where we can start crying. Kobe Bryant has been successfully slowed, but in no way stopped by Thabo Sefolosha. Don't get me wrong, I love having Thabo in these situations, but it's the equivalent of putting 5 more boxcars on the end of a steam-engine powered train. The train might go a bit slower, but it will by no means stop. Expect lots of valiant efforts and a few more points than usual from Sefolosha, and a slightly watered-down Kobe Bryant.

Small Forward: Kevin Durant vs. Ron Artest

Anything we can do, the Lakers can do better. Sure, we can slow down Kobe with Thabo, but they can majorly slow KD down with Ron Artest. In this case, putting Ron Artest on Kevin Durant is like mixing half grape juice and half water. It's solid, but not as good as it used to be.

Power Forward: Jeff Green vs. Pau Gasol

And here again, the Thunder hit another brick wall. Jeff Green has struggled in every matchup this year against legitimate Power Forwards (well, sans the Pistons matchup). And, here's Pau Gasol, one of the top 5 Power Forwards in the league. Doh! Major advantage to the Lakers here.

Center: Nenad Krstic vs. Andrew Bynum

Hey! It's brick wall city! Krstic has been incredibly ineffective against the Lakers in the past, and not much is going to change here. He's going to get completely dominated on the inside, and the Lakers defense is generally good enough to where they don't have to worry about his jumpshot. Again, Major advantage to the Lakers here.

Battle of the Benches:

Ibaka and Harden have struggled mightily against the Lakers, missing shots left and right. Thus, while I'd say the Thunder generally out-talent the Laker bench in every way but Odom, I'd say the Laker bench will perform slightly better than the Thunder bench here.

Coaching and Intangibles:

The Lakers are on a huge run, are at home, are just as well rested as the Thunder, and have Phil Jackson on their side. Advantage: Lakers.

Bottom Line:

Okay, so I've spelled major doom and gloom so far. And you want to know what it will take for the Thunder to win this game. I'll tell you what it will take: A Christmas Miracle. Okay, okay, all joking aside, it's going to take a lot. First of all Russell Westbrook has to exploit the Derek Fisher matchup somehow. He's done decently in the past, but I'd like to see him get to the line more often, which is kind of difficult to do gainst Derek Fisher, one of the best floppers in the league. Secondly, Jeff Green needs to find his way around Pau Gasol. Not an easy task, but maybe resorting to a good amount of mid-range jumpers will do the trick. Thirdly, Ibaka, Krstic, Collison, and Thomas all need to play out of their shoes and prevent Bynum and Gasol from exploiting us inside too much. Fourthly, James Harden needs to step up and make his shots. In the close game he was 3 of 9, but in the blowout he was 2 of 15, also going 0 of 10 from 3 Point Land. Yikes. Just pass the ball if you can;t make it, dude.Fifth, Thabo Sefolosha will have to have a profound effect on Kobe Bryant. I'm talking turnovers, missed shots, whatever. If all of those things happen, we'll win. If 3 or 4 happen, winning is a possibility. If less, then I really doubt the Thunder will win.

Prediction: Los Angeles Lakers 105, Oklahoma City 83

Don't let me discourage you guys though. I want to see an upset tonight! I hate the Lakers! Go Thunder!!!!

How do you think the game will go? Vote in the Poll!

And, again, feel free to drop any comments you might have during, before, or after the game below. I might be here during the game to drop my thoughts as well. Go Thunder!

Poll

Who's going to win tonight?

The bad losses start adding up... (Nuggets/Grizzlies recap)

Andrew Feinstein — Mon, 21 Dec 2009 00:11:41 -0000

The Nuggets are off to one of their best starts in NBA franchise history. But you wouldn't know it by watching their last two games...

All of the NBA's elite teams would be in serious trouble if their top players/alpha dogs went down due to injury. If the Lakers lost Kobe Bryant, they'd be finished. The Spurs sans Tim Duncan? Season over. The Cavaliers minus LeBron? Roll out the white flags. The Mavericks Dirk-less? Ditto.

But while I'd include our Nuggets among the NBA's elite, one thing seems to separate us from the rest of the pack: without one of our top four or five players in the game, the Nuggets stink. Ever since the Nuggets finished a respectable 5-2 out of the gate sans J.R. Smith (arguably the Nuggets fourth or fifth-best player), they can't win a game when one of their top-five guys goes down. Especially one of their two defensive stalwarts, Kenyon Martin and Chauncey Billups. And today's matinee loss at Memphis (even though the Nuggets had a full day of rest prior) was further proof of this.

In three games without K-Mart and now two games without Billups, the Nuggets are 0-5. Comparatively, the Lakers were 8-3 when their second-best player, Pau Gasol, opened the season in a suit and loafers. The Spurs managed to go 2-2 without the services of star guard Tony Parker. While Rashard Lewis served a drug suspension, the Magic finished 7-3. Since Greg Oden went down with a season-ending injury, the Blazers have hung in at 3-4. And minus Josh Howard, the Mavericks are 13-6 on the season. Even the Jazz managed to play .500 basketball in the two games Deron Williams, their best player, missed.

And yet the Nuggets can't seem to reel off victories unless all five star players - Carmelo Anthony, Billups, J.R., K-Mart and Nene - are on the floor. If the Nuggets couldn't beat the hapless Pistons, Bobcats and (admittedly improved) Grizzlies while missing one of their top-five guys, I cringe to think what happens when the Nuggets face a real NBA team without one of their best players on the floor.

Let's call the Nuggets inability to put a game together without both Billups and K-Mart in the game "Problem #1." And we'll call their woeful rebounding and porous interior defense "Problem #2." The Grizzlies put in 27 second-chance points and grabbed 18 more rebounds than the Nuggets today. Last time I checked, that's not Chauncey's department in the first place.

The two problems point to one glaring need: the Nuggets need an extra big man. Marc Gasol may not be walking through the door in a Nuggets uniform anytime soon, but any competent big will do at this point. Perhaps we should convert my summer wish list for a big man into a Christmas wish list...

Stiffs of the Game

-J.R. Smith, Ty Lawson and Kenyon Martin: J.R. built off his great game at New Orleans by shooting 12 shots and making just two of them. He also had three careless turnovers and no assists. Meanwhile, Lawson rewarded Nuggets head coach George Karl for anointing him as starting point guard by dishing out just two assists and missing all three of his shot attempts. And K-Mart was assigned to guard Zach Randolph who...

Non-Stiff of the Game

-Zach Randolph: ...lit up K-Mart and the Nuggets for 32 points and a stunningly high 24 rebounds (nine offensive). Z-Bo was so dominant over K-Mart that K-Mart's +/- at game's end was -20. Ewww. Last time I checked, Randolph is out of shape and can't jump. So how the @#$% did he grab 24 rebounds? (In fairness to K-Mart, a current NBA assistant coach once told me that no one is smarter at using his body to score and grab caroms than Randolph.)

Opposition's Recap: Straight Outta Vancouver

Photo courtesy of AP Photos: Nikki Boertman

Artest Is Fitting in Quite Well, and Other Good News

DexterFishmore — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 18:30:15 -0000

Last October, as part of our preview series, I published a piece here titled Stat Trends to Watch in the New Season. In it I broke down five statistical issues I thought would be especially telling as the Lakers' title defense got underway. The season has reached and passed the quarter pole, and with a short break in the action - the Lakers are off until tomorrow night - now's a good time to revisit those five issues to see how things are shaping up.

Not surprisingly given the Lake Show's 18-4 start, the news is mostly good. It's still early and we're dealing with smallish sample sizes, but the way the numbers are breaking bodes well for this year's team. Let's dive right into another Laker Stats Orgy.

1. Ron Artest's Usage Rate and True Shooting Percentage.

As I discussed in the original piece, Ron Artest's signing with the Lakers raised an interesting question of fit. Throughout his career, Ron has generally been a high-volume shooter of middling efficiency. His offensive skill set was useful on a Houston Rockets team staffed with role players who couldn't really create shots for themselves, but on a Lakers team bristling with scorers, something had to give. The best-case scenario would be that he segues gracefully into the Trevor Ariza role, that of an efficient but secondary offensive option. The worst-case scenario would be him draining possessions from Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol and others, burning those possessions inefficiently and thus dragging down the Laker attack.

So far, the Artest Experiment is going just fine. Ron has gone out of his way to defer to the Lakers' other shooting options - his usage rate (the percentage of the team's possessions he uses while he's on the floor) is down to 18% from 23% last year - and his True Shooting Percentage is up a few ticks. I expect his TS% to increase further, in fact, as Ron's shooting only 62% from the free-throw line. That's well below his career average of 72% and is likely just a fluke. As his free-throw accuracy regresses to the mean, he'll become an even more efficient scorer.

Another good indicator of Artest's fit in the Laker offense is his assist rate. This measures the percentage of a player's possessions that ends in an assist. Ron's assist rate so far this season is over 21%, which is far and away his career high. The stats here confirm what our eyes have been telling us - that Ron is an exceptionally skilled passer who's made feeding his teammates a priority.

There are two areas of improvement I'd like to see in Ron's numbers. First, turnovers. I want fewer of them. Right now he's turning the ball over on about 12% of his possessions, which isn't good for a small forward. That's higher than his career norms, so he should be able to bring that down.

Second, Ron doesn't seem to be all that good at finishing at the rim. He gets to the rum perfectly fine, nearly five times per 40 minutes, but he converts only about 50% of those looks. Just to pick a couple comps not quite at random, Kobe's conversion rate at the rim is generally 60% or above, as is Ariza's. Ron doesn't have the ups those guys do, and he also appears to hurry his shot when he gets a close look. Take it from Dr. Dre, Ron: slower is better.

2. Opponents' Three-Point Attempts and Accuracy.

Last year the Lakers pulled off an unusual trick: they had a very good defense despite allowing opponents to hoist a bunch of threes. Those two things don't typically go together. You defend the perimeter, stathead orthodoxy will tell you, by chasing shooters off the three-point line. There's a lot of evidence that teams don't have much control over opponents' three-point accuracy, so the key is to limit their three-point attempts. Make them take long twos instead. That's not what the Lakers did last season, but they got away with it because their opponents made only 34% of their threes, the third-lowest rate in the league.

Was this just good fortune, or are the Lakers really onto something? The numbers so far suggest the latter. The Laker defense has really tightened up the number of three-point attempts it allows: only 21% of total FGAs, eighth-best in the league. And of the threes that go up, less than 30% go in, easily the best in the league. It looks like the Lakers actually do know how to shut down the long-distance game.

The Lakers are blessed with long and athletic perimeter defenders, which obviously helps, but the strong-side trap they installed at the beginning of last season is proving to be a robust system. We should also note that they've maintained and even improved on last year's stingy D despite the loss of Kurt Rambis, the team's de facto "defensive coordinator." Hats off to Phil and his assistants for not missing a beat.

3. Opponents' Free-Throw Accuracy.

Speaking of good fortune.

Opponents of the 2008-09 Lakers made 75.3% of their free-throw attempts. Only opponents of the Rockets shot worse, meaning the Lakers got fairly lucky. It's not the hugest deal ever - their good luck was worth something like 35 points over the course of the season - but it's enough to swing a game here and there. So how's the free-throw "defense" holding up so far in the new campaign?

In absolute terms, it's been almost exactly identical: opponents are hitting 75.4% of their freebies. The league average is down a couple percentage points this season, however, so you can't really say the Lakers are still coasting on luck. What they've "allowed" is right at the league mean.

It still becomes relevant on a micro level from time to time. Kobe's epic buzzer-beater against Miami, you might recall, was made possible only because the Heat, a 75% free-throw shooting team on average, shot 64% from the line that night. Had they made free throws at their normal rate, they would've scored five additional points, swinging the outcome in their favor.

4. Kobe's Free Throw Attempts.

In October I observed, to everyone's delight, that Kobe's tendency to draw fouls and get to the free-throw line had declined sharply from the previous season. His ratio of free-throws attempted to field-goals attempted, a basic measure of a player's ability to get to the line that I'll refer to as "Free Throw Rate" for brevity's sake, had dropped 25% from 2007-08. Here, to remind us all what we're talking about, are his recent Free Throw Rates by season and age.

Season	Age	FTA/FGA
2003-04	25	0.45
2004-05	26	0.50
2005-06	27	0.38
2006-07	28	0.44
2007-08	29	0.44
2008-09	30	0.33

The fall-off is problematic for a couple reasons. One, the free-throw line is among the most efficient ways to score points. Two, a declining Free Throw Rate can be an early warning sign of aging. It can indicate that a player is losing a step and can't beat opposing defenders like he used to. I didn't argue that Kobe had, in fact, lost a step - just that this is something to keep an eye on as his odometer keeps spinning upward.

His Free Throw Rate looking so far this year? Steady as she goes - 0.32, almost the same as last season. That's good news, as are the other readings we often look to as a way of measuring athleticism. Kobe's steals and offensive rebounds are both up significantly, and the advanced metrics that try to capture individual D say that he's defending as well as ever. To the naked eye, he looks even stronger than he did last year (his recent injury and illness aside).

Everything checks out fine, in other words. Admittedly, though, I don't know why Kobe's Free Throw Rate is hovering below his career levels. I recently examined Free Throw Rates of 20 or so elite scoring wings from the last three decades and found that most of them didn't suffer declines in this metric in their early 30's. At this stage of their careers, most held steady or even got better at getting to the stripe.

My working hypothesis with Kobe is that his Free Throw Rate has been affected by the emergence of Andrew Bynum as an offensive force and the arrival of Pau Gasol. These two events happened during the 2008-09 season, which is when the falloff in Kobe's FT attempts kicked in. With a pair of potent offensive options in the lane, Kobe may well have decided that the Laker offense no longer required him to hurl himself into the paint (and subject himself to possible injury) quite so much. To test this I need to take a closer look at game-by-game shot charts from this season and last, but it all seems plausible on its face.

5. DJ Mbenga's Block Rate.

Still very good!

This one I tossed into the October piece as a little pat on DJ's back, since he didn't get much love from our previews otherwise. As it happens, the man has played more this season than we guessed he would, owing to the Bynum and Gasol injuries. And he's held his own! His defensive numbers are strong across the board, and while his block rate (the percentage of the opponent's two-point shots he blocks while he's on the floor) is down from the insane 10.2% of last season, it's nonetheless at a very-respectable 7.2%.

So much respect to DJ, seriously. There are many worse backup centers in the league. For the cut-rate salary of less than a mill, he's quite the good value.

All numbers courtesy of Basketball Reference and HoopData.

Win Streak Hits 11, Kobe's Finger Banged

DexterFishmore — Sat, 12 Dec 2009 07:04:07 -0000

Lakerdom's lingua franca added a new medical term tonight: "avulsion fracture." That's what befell the precious right index finger of Kobe Bryant in the second quarter of a 104-92 win over the Minnesota Timberwolves. It happened while he was defending Ryan Gomes near the sideline, and it sent him to the halftime locker room early. He returned, with a splint courtesy of trainer Gary Vitti, to play about 18 minutes in the second half, looking more or less OK, but he admitted after the game that it felt "pretty painful." Please commence your candlelight vigils.

The Lakers' effort level was up and down tonight. After opening up an 11-point lead early in the quarter, they let point guard Ramon Sessions engineer a comeback that made it a two-point game at half. L.A. allowed Minnesota to score 1.10 points per possession over the first two quarters, which is just absurd. The Wolves average 0.97 PPP on the season. On the road against a team with the Lakers' length, they shouldn't even sniff the 1.00 mark.

In the third quarter, the Lake Show locked everything down. They forced the Timberwolves to do what they do best - turn the rock over to the other team - and built up an 18-point margin. A key contribution was made by ~~Laker double agent~~ Minnesota head coach Kurt Rambis, who sat Sessions for the first 10 minutes of the third. Sessions was 6-for-6 in the first half, so it was nice of Rambis to cool him off.

There wasn't a lot of flow in the Laker offense tonight. It was one of their worst shooting performances in a while. Pau Gasol, though, put in an evening of solid work: 17 points, seven assists and a career-high 20 boards. Ron Artest was quietly productive (16 points, five assists and three steals), and backcourt reserves Jordan Farmar, Shannon Brown and Sasha Vujacic chipped in 22. Onward to Utah.

Before we go, however, a heartfelt plea to Stu Lantz, wherever he may be: come back soon. I AM BEGGING. Hot Rod Hundley filled in tonight, and I don't think I'm exaggerating when I say his performance was the most tragic event in American history. About 80% of the game he spent mumbling impenetrably. Dude, seriously... you need to speak up and enunciate. You sound like an 80-year-old Boomhauer up past his bedtime. The remaining 20% of the game, we realized how nice things were when we couldn't understand what Hot Rod was saying.

I need my Stu back. I swear, I'm never writing a bad word about him again.

	Poss.	TO%	FTA/ FGA	FT%	EFG%	TS%	Off Reb%	Def Reb%	PPP
Minny	96	18	0.18	75	45	48	32	71	0.96
L.A.	96	15	0.14	77	49	52	29	68	1.08

Three home tests ahead...

Andrew Feinstein — Sat, 12 Dec 2009 00:16:28 -0000

While a 16-7 record after 23 games is nothing to snub your nose at, the Nuggets have alarmingly lost five games to bad teams and haven't really been tested at home yet. Three tests are coming up...

Just when we thought the unacceptable loss to the Timberwolves a few weeks ago was the wake up the Nuggets needed to start playing better, we collectively fear that it may have just been a precursor of more bad outings to come. As I wrote at that time, there's a difference between good losses, bad losses and unacceptable losses. When you're playing the second of a back-to-back on the road against a sub-.500 opponent whose had a day or rest and end up losing (like the Nuggets did to the Bobcats on Tuesday), that's a bad loss. But when you're the team whose had a day of rest and your injury depleted opponent is playing the second of a back-to-bad and you still lose (like the Nuggets did to the Pistons last night), that's an unacceptable loss.

As I wrote after the Wolves loss, these types of defeats come back to haunt you later in the season. If you're scoring at home, the Nuggets were also 16-7 at this point last season en route to a magical 54-game, WCF run. But with the exception of an early season loss to a healthy Golden State team while the Nuggets were undermanned due to the Allen Iverson trade, the Nuggets didn't lose to any sub-.500 teams during those first 23 games. In fact, in 2008-09 the Nuggets would play nearly three-and-a-half months before losing to a sub-.500 team. And this year, they already five such losses on their ledger: at Milwaukee, at the Clippers, home against Minnesota, at Charlotte and now at Detroit. Yikes.

Does this mean that the 2009-10 Nuggets are inferior to their 2008-09 predecessors? It's too early to tell. And it should be noted that the Nuggets have attempted to make up for those five bad losses by winning two games no one counted on them winning: impressively at Portland and at San Antonio.

What's of equal concern to me beyond those bad losses is that the Nuggets haven't really been tested at home. And no, the Lakers game didn't count for much of a test: the Lakers were without Pau Gasol and had played very late the night before.

So I suppose it's fitting that while college students across America prepare and take their final exams right now, the Nuggets at last have three home tests themselves: Phoenix tomorrow, Oklahoma City on Monday and Houston on Wednesday. These three squads aren't lottery denizens like the last two teams that embarrassed the Nuggets, so hopefully we as fans will see a better effort from the boys in powder blue and gold. Most fortunately for the Nuggets, all three opponents will be playing the Nuggets as the second game of a back-to-back. And thus, if the Nuggets don't win all three games, consider the exam failed.

On a side note, I'll be at all three games and can't wait! Who's with me?!

Photo courtesy of AP Photos: Duane Burleson

Game 21: Oklahoma City at Memphis

Zorgon — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 20:49:46 -0000

More photos » by Lance Murphey - AP

Ryan Bowen gawked at the fact that the Thunder lost against the Grizzlies in the Pre-Season. Kyle Weaver was concerned too, but at least he tried to do something about it.

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This also counts as an open thread, so feel free to post your thoughts during the game here.

Time: 7:00 PM Central Standard Time

Place: The Fedex Library, Memphis, Tennessee

TV: Fox Sports Oklahoma, Fox Sports Tennessee

Radio: WWLS The Sports Animal (98.1)

Enemy Blog(s): 3 Shades of Blue, Straight Outta Vancouver

Backstory: Just another game, or just another surprise?

Okay, so there's not a whole lot to marvel over or write about when concerning the Memphis Grizzlies.But, contrary to popular belief, they are doing relatively well. Sure, they're only on pace to win 30 some games, but they've won their last 3 games against Minnesota, Dallas, and Cleveland. And the team is showing no signs of slowing down. The starting lineup has had the talent there, but they haven't yet had the teamwork in place in order to win. Until now, at least. With a lean, mean mix of veterans and young'uns in their starting lineup that Garry St. Jean could only dream of, this team is poised and in position to upset the Thunder tonight.

Meanwhile, the Thunder got their anger out when they played the lowly and depleted Warriors, and they're well rested going into tonight's game. They straight up dominated the Grizzlies last season, and history would say that the Thunder could easily be the team to end the Grizzlies win streak.

Below: Matchups, Prediction

Matchups:

Center: Nenad Krstic vs. Marc Gasol

Pau Gasol lite may not be as good as his brother, but he's definitely much better inside than Nenad Krstic. Expect limited minutes and less than 10 points for Krstic, while the majority of the game is spent with battles between Gasol, Collison, and Thomas, with Gasol winning most of them.

Power Forward: Jeff Green vs. Zach Randolph

The story of Jeff Green's season has been his struggles against bigger power forwards, but luckily for Jeff, Zach Randolph is much of a defender. Expect both of these guys to score bucket after bucket upon each other, and for each of them to get their fair share of rebounds.

Small Forward: Kevin Durant vs. Rudy Gay

Rudy Gay is quite the dunker, but history says that Kevin Durant will win this matchup every time.

Shooting Guard: Thabo Sefolosha vs. O.J. Mayo

O.J. Mayo is a solid overall shooting guard, and history has dictated that he usually performs above-average against the Thunder. But with Thabo Sefolosha guarding him now, who knows what will happen?

Point Guard: Russell Westbrook vs. Mike Conley

Mike Conley is a solid point guard, but not the best player on the Grizzlies by any stretch of the imagination. He'll provide scoring for them in the pinch, but Westbrook will have a better game.

Battle of the Benches:

For how good their starting lineup is, the Grizzlies bench is extremely thin. A lot of guys will play, and one will occasionally step up and be an X-Factor, but in general, they're all pretty ineffective. The only real notables are this years 2nd Pick in Hasheem Thabeet, and former Pacers PG Jamaal Tinsley. In any case, our bench has this thing covered.

Coaching and Intangibles:

The Grizzlies are at home, but that doesn't make that much of a difference, as it's a pretty quiet arena, and it's where we got our much-heralded 2nd win last year. Both teams are well rested, so all in all, it makes a pretty even intangibles matchup on the floor tonight.

Bottom Line:

I know things have been going well for the Grizzlies lately, but I'm still not convinced. This is a team we beat 3 times last year, and a team without any bench help. They could win, but they'd need everything to go right with all of their starters, and they'd need to put up a good defensive effort. That being said, this team can be dangerous, and they will be able to compete. But, in the end, I'll just chalk this one up as another Thunder win.

Prediction: Thunder 103, Grizzlies 97

Let's rock the library!

How do you think the game will go? Vote in the Poll!

And, again, feel free to drop any comments you might have during, before, or after the game below. I might be by during the game to drop my thoughts as well. Go Thunder!

Poll

Who's going to win tonight?

HIGHLIGHT OF THE NIGHT: Lakers Bring Back Showtime

Josh Tucker — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 07:00:26 -0000

In a defensive showcase, the Lakers clamped down in the fourth quarter and held the Utah Jazz to 6 points in the period. This included a 19-0 stretch, and from the start of the quarter to the 4:35 mark, a 23-2 run. We'll have LOTS more to say about that soon enough, but for now, here's your highlight of the night.

It's Showtime again in Los Angeles. Enjoy.

Preview - Utah Jazz @ Los Angeles Lakers

Basketball John — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 03:10:18 -0000

More photos » by Andrew D. Bernstein - NBAE/Getty Images

The Lakers undefeated with Gasol back.

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I've been looking for most of the day on ways that the Jazz can beat the Lakers. When I finally thought I had found a couple of recurring themes in their losses, I remembered that their three losses were all sans Pau Gasol.

Since he's been back, nobody has been able to figure them out. Miami came close but lost on the three-pointer at the buzzer from Kobe.

When they win, they're beating opponents on average by 13 points a game, 108.6-95.6. Jeez. But when they have lost, they've lost in spectacular fashion with an average score of 83.3 to 100. Their offense seems to be feast or famine point-wise with mostly feasting.

The Lakers have had a huge advantage to start the season with 15 games at home with only 4 on the road. The closest I could find to that was a couple of teams with 12 home games. They'll have two more home games including tonight before coming to the SLC on Saturday. That's 17 home games with only 4 on the road to start the season. Of course it will even out in the coming months but it was good luck on their part as Gasol had been out with a strained hammy to start the season.

So what hope do the Jazz have tonight against LA? It will be tough first of all since Bynum and Gasol eat up the rest of the league. Given our defensive presence on the inside, if you can call it that, they could have career-type nights. I have a bit of hope for Boozer as we've seen him be physical in some occasions this season and look like he's giving an effort. With Fess and AK not available to back them up, we'll see a lot of Millsap and maybe the KOOF if there's foul trouble. Really though, we shouldn't give them too much trouble on defense.

On offense though they could do some damage. If Memo continues his hot shooting from the arc, that will bring Bynum or Gasol out of the paint and allow Boozer to work one on one.

Of course, that means that the wings will have to be knocking down shots to keep Kobe from hanging out in the paint. It will be interesting to see who he defends this game. If Kobe is sagging like that though, the Jazz have to run something with Boozer on the opposite side. They can't let Kobe hang out like that.

The matchup I'm interested in seeing will be Matthews and Brewer on Kobe. Matthews has that no fear attitude and backs it up instead of just talking about it. We'll see if he can throw Kobe off a bit.

The Jazz will have to play flawlessly to have a chance to win tonight. They can't get behind early like have in almost every game the past two years in the playoffs against the Lakers.

I don't know how you develop the swagger, but you have teams like Boston and LA that will go into any arena and do not get intimidated. I think a lot of the players on the Jazz still get a little overwhelmed by their surroundings. I don't sense that "We don't give a damn" attitude. That's why I miss Ronnie Price because I would love to see him go up against the Lakers tonight because you know he has that right mindset.

LA has shot just 37% in their 3 losses. The Jazz will have to hold them close to that if they want to win.

This will be another measuring stick for the Jazz as they play the best team in the league on the road. Let's hope it doesn't get out of hand.

Game thread coming shortly.

Perkins vs. Bogut Had an Old School Feel to It

Greg Payne — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 18:26:50 -0000

More photos » by Michael Dwyer - AP

Bogut wins the individual battle, but Perkins team takes the win.

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Heading into last night's game against the Milwaukee Bucks, rookie Brandon Jennings had my attention. It would be my first time seeing the kid play and after a rookie goes off for 55 points, it's difficult not to want to see him for yourself. I figured Rajon Rondo would present a formidable defensive challenge unlike anything Jennings had seen in his still very young NBA career and for the most part I was right.

While the plight of the point guards was entertaining (mainly due to Rondo being one rebound shy of a triple-double and finishing with 11 points, 13 assists, nine rebounds and five steals), the battle of the big men stole the show. Kendrick Perkins and Andrew Bogut did not appear to like each other on the court last night, but Perk was pivotal to Boston's success and Bogut was one of the main reasons Milwaukee kept it close for far too long.

The final lines for the pair:

Perkins: 7-8 shooting, 15 points, 5 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 steals, 0 blocks, 2 turnovers

Bogut: 11-17 shooting, 25 points, 14 rebounds, 5 assists, 1 steal, 2 blocks, 7 turnovers

Advantage to the Aussie, I suppose, and give him credit for playing so well against one of the NBA's premiere interior defenders. But the tussle itself between these two was worth watching, as the paint proved to be quite the battleground last night.

I missed out on the '60s, '70s and '80s when the vast majority of the NBA's big men actually played in the paint and brought legitimate offensive repertoires down there with them. Hook shots abounded, along with the five to seven-foot turn around and didn't the '80s serve as the 8-10 foot jumper's hay day? I've watched a ton of footage from the decade and I swear EVERYBODY had that shot, including the majority of the league's big guys.

Now come back to last night and with Perk and Bogut going at it, one might have felt like we had taken a step back in time with the moves we were seeing. Bogut was an absolute whiz with the hook shots, whether they be of the stop and pop kind or of the sweeping brand. It looks like he's turned that shot into his go-to move, although, when the Bucks needed him to utilize that go-to move when they were hanging on for dear life with minutes left, Bogut came up empty on two consecutive possessions, primarily due to outstanding defense by Perk (and a helping hand from Rondo the first time around). But despite Bogut's shortcomings in the final few possessions, he really does possess a nice touch down low, and in terms of old school post moves, he's right up there for tops in the league today (along with guys like Al Jefferson and Pau Gasol).

For Perk, has any NBA center in today's league mastered the short fade away jumper in the lane the way he has? He typically begins his move on the right block, backs his man down and buries him into the paint to the point where his defender is almost under the rim, then plants the right foot, turns, fades, and buries the shot. Speaking of go-to moves, Perk has shown he can fall back on this shot whenever he needs to, particularly early on in games when he's establishing his own rhythm.

I think it's fair to say Bogut is a naturally more gifted offensive player, meaning he did not need to develop as much of his offensive game as Perk did when he entered the league. When Perk first stepped onto an NBA floor, if a dunk wasn't an option, he pretty much wasn't going to score. But it's a testament to Perkins' work ethic, along with Clifford Ray's tutelage when we recognize how Perk has developed into a legitimate offensive threat.

But last night it was nice seeing two legitimate interior players really play where their respective games thrive. Bogut didn't drag Perk out to the perimeter, but instead went at him relentlessly down low, and even though I might be forced to say Bogut got the better of Perk for three and a half quarters, watching a skilled big man with legitimate post moves go up against an equally legitimate interior defender is arguably a rarity in today's game. Many of the 6-10 and up guys in today's league possess outside jump shots, or prefer the perimeter in general. But the paint really was a battleground last night and it was somewhat captivating seeing these two continue to go at it, with the hook shots and the up and unders and the reverses, especially when their teammates cleared the lanes and just let them play each other straight up.

I sure hope Perk treats Rondo to a nice dinner when this team heads off on its next three-game road swing, because of the 13 assists Rondo racked up, a bunch of them went through Perk in the paint. As much as we talk about the unspoken on-the-court chemistry between Rondo and Kevin Garnett when they're executing their alley-oops, the relationship Rondo shares with Perk is equally crippling to an opposing team. With Perk always parking himself down low, whenever Rondo slices through the defense and draws the help defender, he can usually count on Perk being wide open mere feet away from the basket. And if Perk isn't always in pristine position, he's usually lurking somewhere nearby, cutting to the hoop or battling for position for an offensive rebound.

I'm not entirely sure which big men helped spark the wave of the 15-18 foot jumper. Perhaps it was Hakeem Olajuwon or Karl Malone. Or maybe it was those drafted in the mid-to late '90s like Garnett, Rasheed Wallace and Dirk Nowitzki. Whoever was responsible for the transition, Perk's had to deal with a steady crop of perimeter based big men this season, including Channing Frye, Andrea Bargnani and Mehmet Okur, which takes Perk out of his natural defensive element.

But Perkins vs. Bogut proved the NBA can still go retro every once in a while, where the emphasis isn't necessarily on the pure athleticism, but rather on the quickness and the finesse, as well as the intelligence it takes to play quality low post basketball. It's difficult to tell whether the big men of tomorrow will resemble a Bogut or a Perkins as opposed to a Garnett or a Nowitzki, but regardless, games like last night's proved that we can still be treated and reminded of the NBA's low post glory days from time to time.

Lakers Dominate Suns, Look Better Than Ever

Josh Tucker — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 19:38:35 -0000

More photos » by Gus Ruelas - AP

NCIS is my favorite show. Gibbs is my role model.

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In 2008-09, the Lakers won the NBA Championship (you know ... in case you hadn't heard). Along the way, they won 65 games. Throughout all this, their longest winning streak was 7 games. They had more than one such streak.

During the regular season, they often struggled to maintain focus and intensity. Their ceiling was very high, and they had the fortunate ability to play at nearly full potential when needed — but not consistently, and not when the competition was less than top notch. They often gave too much ground to bad teams, and though they were solid against Denver in the Conference Finals, and handled Orlando quite quickly en route to a 4-1 Finals victory, they weren't nearly as good as they should have been in the first two rounds, against lesser competition.

Many of these things appear to be changing, and last night's game is just the latest piece in a nine-game string of of games that punctuate that statement. With Pau Gasol still getting into shape, Ron Artest still learning the offense, and the schedule tougher than the pundits would have you believe, the Lakers' win over Phoenix last night has them riding a winning streak of nine games — already two better than anything they did last year.

With the stage now set, let's take a closer look at last night's blowout of the Suns at Staples Center...

Okay, I just can't help myself. Two more fun facts about this streak that I just have to point to:

On this nine-game winning streak, the Lakers have broken 100 points nine times. They have held their opponents below 100 points eight times.
Their average margin of victory over these nine games is 15.3 points per game. Basically, they're on a dominant nine-game winning streak, averaging a blowout.

Okay, on to last night's game. We'll do this with bullets.

Defense

The Suns have the NBA's best offense. Even after last night, they still rank nearly a full point per 100 possessions better than second-ranked Denver in that category. The Lakers, meanwhile, have one of the NBA's best defenses — 3rd by Offensive Efficiency rating, but first in defensive FG%, eFG%, and TS%. When the two clashed, the Lakers' defense easily won out.
The Lakers held the Suns under 100 points; only two other teams have managed that all year. They also held the Suns under 90 points; no other team has managed that all year.
They also held the Suns to under 100 points per 100 possessions (or, as we like to say around these parts, under 1.00 point per possession). By Hollinger's measure, they managed an efficiency rating of only 95.8 points per 100 possessions (0.96 PPP); by Dex's more accurate count (Hollinger uses a formula; Dex actually tallies it all up, possession by possession, superhero that he is), they were up to 0.98 PPP (98.0 points per 100 possessions). Either way, considering these two facts: (a) the Suns average 112.1 points per 100 possessions (1.12 PPP), and (b) a defensive efficiency rating of 95.8 points per 100, by Hollinger's rating, would be good enough for best defense in the League.
The Suns are 3-point shooting maniacs. They average 22.7 three-point attempts per game, and they convert at a mind-numbing rate of 43.4% from that range. Last night, the Lakers defended the arc very well, holding the Suns to a mere 13 attempts, of which they made only four. For the mathematically challenged, that's 30.8% shooting from distance. For some perspective, note that if they shot that poorly from three all season, it would rank them 23rd in the NBA in 3-point accuracy, instead of where they currently rank — first.
They also rank 3rd overall in total field goal percentage, at 49.3%. The Lakers held them to 44.6% on the night. Solid.
Phoenix didn't break 30 points in any quarter. They were held to 22 or less in three out of four.
Some subjective observations: Ron Artest was awesome as ever on D. Five steals, very disruptive overall, and never gave up on a single play. I was also very pleased with our bigs' defense. Taking a page from Toronto's playbook (I can't believe I just typed that; Toronto is ranked dead last in defense), LA switched on screen-rolls with Nash, sending Gasol or Bynum out to challenge the floppy-haired Canadian. I was impressed with both big men, who were very active defensively, moving their feet and generally preventing Nash from getting by them and into the paint. Great effort there, and great result overall. They didn't shut him down, but they kept him pretty quiet, at 12 points and 10 assists.
Final thought on last night's defense, back to offensive/defensive ratings: Tallying a defensive rating that, if maintained over the course of the season, would rank the Lakers first in the league, against the best offense in the league? Yeah, I'd say that's pretty damn good defense.

Offense

The Lakemen are slowly climbing their way up the ranks in Offensive Efficiency. They're still ranked only 13th overall, but the offense has actually been quite good of late, and their rating is slowly increasing. Last night, they scored 121.0 points per 100 by Hollinger's formulaic rating — a number matched identically, in this case, by Dex's more accurate exact count, which yielded 1.21 PPP. For perspective: Phoenix boasts the best offensive rating in the League, a point better than 2nd-ranked Denver, at 112.1 points per 100 (1.12 PPP); last night, the Lakers were 9 points per 100 better than that.
21 three-point attempts, 10 makes, which is a conversion rate of 47.6% from distance. Yeah, they stole the Suns playbook on that one. Ron Artest, Kobe Bryant, Derek Fisher, Shannon Brown, and Jordan Farmar — all hit at least 50% of their three-point attempts.
26 free throws earned, a very solid rate of 0.32 FTA/FGA, and converted at a very high rate of 84.6%. Ron Artest didn't miss a single freebie.
The Suns doubled heavily in the paint, since the Lakers destroyed them down there last time. The Lake Show simply responded by hitting jumpers, knocking down threes, and passing out of the double team down low. On a couple occasions, I was very pleased to see Bynum take a page from Gasol's playbook, drawing the double with his back to the basket and then dumping the ball off to his low post-mate.
Good ball control. A temporary lapse in the second quarter, where they committed six turnovers, but only 11 overall — and only one in each of the first and third quarters.
Six guys in double figures, including two off the bench. (I'm telling you, the more I see the Farmar/Brown lineup, the more I love it.)

Bench Play

I've decided to refer to the reserve lineup that Phil Jackson plays when it still matters — typically, in the 2nd and early 4th quarters, and sometimes in the 3rd — as the Bench Unit. This is the lineup that features Jordan Farmar, Shannon Brown, and Lamar Odom (or at least two of those three), but NOT Sasha Vujabric, Adam Morrison, Josh Powell, or DJ Mbenga. The lineup featuring Vujabric/Morrison/Powell/Mbenga, usually accompanied by either Farmar or Brown, is what I will refer to as the GarbageTime Unit. It's nothing revolutionary, just calling a spade a spade, since the GTU guys simply do not play when it still matters.
The Bench Unit was very good last night. They were part of a 2nd-quarter 8-0 run, and a 3rd-quarter 15-1 run (that's where the game was decided, going from a still-in-question 9-point game at 72-63 to an insurmountable 23-point lead at 87-64). They also managed to play even in the first half of the fourth quarter, responding to a mini-run by Phoenix which cut the lead to 13 thanks mainly to a pair of threes by Shannon Brown, which pushed the lead back to the 20-point margin the Lakers ended the game with.
The Lakers won every quarter but the fourth, and they only lost the fourth by 1 point.
The GarbageTime Unit didn't lose a single inch. The Bench Unit lost only 1 point to Phoenix in the first part of the fourth quarter, but held a 20-point lead when the GTU replaced them. The GTU held its own and ended the game with that same 20-point lead.

Individual Play

Kobe Bryant. Awesome as usual. 26 points on only 16 FGAs. 9-16 from the field, 50% on threes, 7 rebounds, only one turnover, 8 trips to the line, in a pretty average 36 minutes.
Ron Artest. As I already mentioned, 5 steals, very disruptive overall, never gave up on defense. Lights out from three (3-5), hit all his free throws. 15 points on 11 FGAs, along with 5 assists. Solid.
Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol. 5-9 shooting for Bynum, 6-10 for Gasol. 13 points for Bynum, 14 for Gasol. Between them, 10 rebounds, 5 assists, and only one free throw miss and one turnover. Played very well together offensively, and both were excellent on defense. Bynum even attempted a 3-point attempt (didn't have much choice), which almost bounced in (factoring out that desperation attempt, he was 5-8 from the field).
Lamar Odom with the little things. 8 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 blocks, 1 steal.
The Point Guards. All three of them. Good three point shooting, good defense, good energy.

Final Thoughts

It's worth noting that Phoenix was once again playing on the second half of a back to back, in Los Angeles. Not ideal circumstances. On the other hand, the Suns are a good team, and good teams pose a serious threat even on the second half of a back to back, on the road. Yes, it was a bit of an advantage for the Lakers, but don't undervalue the effort they gave or the credit they deserve for this win. They controlled this game in every way, and it wasn't because Phoenix didn't come to play.

Speaking of controlling the game: The Suns play at a pace of 98 possessions per game. The Lakers play at a similar pace of 97.8 possessions per game. Nonetheless, because of the Suns' ability to run with Nash and to take high percentage threes in transition, as well as the Lakers ability to dominate in the post, and in the half-court set in general, I think it's safe to say that in this particular matchup, a slower game is a good idea for the Lakers. With that in mind, the pace of the game was yet another thing the Lakemen controlled very well, as the game went 89.5 possessions (89 for LA, 90 for for Phoenix).

Bottom line: Another game, another blowout.