SB Nation - Rudy Gay

Five Game Cycles: New Year Early

djturtleface — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 17:31:35 -0000

The Grizzlies got off to a bad start to this five game cycle, getting blown out and dunked on regularly against the Hawks last night. (AP Photo/John Amis)

Browse more photos »

The Grizzlies had a tough set of five games, which is how Coach Hollins has told the young team to see their schedule, over the past two weeks. With Dallas, Cleveland, and then Oklahoma City at home, Memphis saw some serious superstar scoring.

They then took it onto the road against Miami, and then came back home against the Celtics. For those of you that don't really follow the rest of the league, that's five teams currently in the playoffs with a combined 82-41. For those of that don't really follow mathematics, that means they win twice as often as they lose.

And yet the Grizzlies came away from this five 3-2, which is one win better than Coach Lionel Hollins wants to average on the season, and two wins better than I predicted in the last edition of 'Five Game Cycles'

Get over the jump to see how the Grizzlies made dreams come true and also what to expect from this five game cycle.

The Breakdown- (3-2): Talk about some kind of goodness. The Memphis Grizzlies just lit it up on offense, just torching some big time defensive squads. The Grizzlies averaged a nice 105 points per game.

Yes, that number is somewhat high because the Grizzlies battled, and beat, the Cavaliers in overtime, though they probably also would have dropped a few more buckets had they needed to play the starters longer during a blowout against the Mavericks. And against Miami the Grizzlies offense barely even had to play to score 118, all they needed was to put the ball in Rudy Gay's hands -- he scored a career high 41 points.

The two losses came against Boston and Oklahoma City. The Grizzlies looked flustered by a very motivated, and increasingly talented, Oklahoma City Thunder. But when Boston came to town they worked out Boston's defense, getting up and down the court, shooting 50%, and scoring 105. It was too bad Boston had even less trouble on offense.

What Feels Good- Big wins against big teams always feel good for the Grizzlies. But this five game cycle was special because it also included two blowouts against playoff teams, not to mention the young Grizzlies leaving their hearts on the court in losses against the Celtics and the Thunder.

Rudy Gay continues to prove that he can contribute in more ways than highlight reel dunks. Rudy is racking up steals and rebounds like never before, and is sharing the ball better than ever also. Most importantly though, in my opinion at least, that extra muscle is helping. Rudy is now averaging a career-high number of free throw attempts per game -- if only he could start making some.

You've also got to like seeing Marc Gasol coming out of his relative slump, Mike Conley has been scoring much better at times, Jamaal Tinsley has made some serious intangible contributions, Sam Young and Hasheem Thabeet are both playing better, and O.J. Mayo is getting some consistency on his stroke.

Tell Me What Hurts- We're going to harp on this all season, I think, because the Grizzlies defense is just downright poor at times. It's definitely improving, but I also have a feeling that no amount of cohesion and growth under Coach Hollins is going to get rid of this problem.

I mean Zach Randolph, Mike Conley, and O.J. Mayo all have significant shortcomings as defenders. Zach just isn't that great and, more importantly, isn't respected by the other team. No matter how many hands he puts in their face, other power forwards just shoot right over him with confidence because they have no fear. Mike is too small and isn't strong enough, and O.J. Mayo arguably is as well.

Also there has to be some serious concern over the minutes these starters are playing, especially Rudy, who is around 40 minutes per game and still doesn't really have a sub. If Von Wafer is signed, he will slide to backup shooting guard and Sam Young will be at the forward spot, but our sub teams definitely need at least one starter on the floor with them at all times.

Into the Horizon- Here's a big prediction: the Grizzlies are going to lose to the Atlanta Hawks 110-97. Joe Johnson will handle the much, much smaller O.J. Mayo. And Rudy Gay will roll his ankle, which is more than a little bit worrisome without much depth on the bench.

But the next four are Indiana, Denver, Golden State, and then Dallas again. Indiana has some serious problems without Danny Granger, and T.J. Ford is one of the few good matchups for Mike Conley. Denver will be somewhere between tough and impossible, especially if Rudy Gay is laying on the sick bed all game. Golden State should be a win, but even in their dilapidated state, that franchise is always dangerous. And Dallas certainly isn't planning on crapping out against against Memphis, especially not at home.

So I'll give us a number that will make Coach Hollins nice and happy. The Grizzlies should come out of this stretch 2-3, and this next couple weeks is definitely going to test their staying power. The national media is starting to give respect -- the Grizzlies are 16th in ESPN's newest power rankings -- and this week, especially possibly dealing with Rudy's injury, is going to go a long way towards proving they deserve to be there.

Preposterous Statements

Stop-n-Pop — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 13:45:35 -0000

For those of you who are fans of the noon to three program on KFAN you are probably aware of the (in)famous preposterous statement contest where the host and the interim producer gather the silliest and most over-the-top statements from the world of sports and then run them off against each other in a winner-take-all tourney for preposterous statement champion of the world.

During yesterday's pro'grum they added the following statement (from a caller): "If [the Wolves] add a good shooting guard and a center, they'd be a .500 team."

There are two angles to this statement. On one hand, the idea the Wolves are two competent players away from being a .500 team isn't all that far out of an idea. In fact, we here at Hoopus have said over and over that the Wolves need to add a wing player like Rudy Gay and an athletic big like Joakim Noah or Jason Thompson in order to take the next step before hoping that the Sessions/Rubio/Flynn/(Wall?) battle can play itself out at the point.

On the other hand, the idea that the few remaining Wolves fans are in a position to talk excitedly about the addition of 2 more competent players in order to make it to an even split in their record is...well, that's kind of preposterous. It's really preposterous.

What is also preposterous is trying to draw any conclusions about this team from any single game of action. After performing like up-tempo gangbusters against the talented Utah Jazz, the Wolves came out an laid a preposterous egg against the Clips. This team is a whole lot of hit and (mostly) miss right now and if I had to pick one or two angles that would determine whether or not they will win, it would be the play of Jonny Flynn and the nondescript wings. Against Utah, Corey Brewer and Jonny Flynn went off and the team was able to compete. Against the Clips, not so much.

OK, that in mind, and with clear understanding that there are no grand themes you can take away from any of these games other than that Minny is out manned by a mile, let's get around to last night's tilt. It was notable for three reasons:

Effort. Last night the Wolves played like dogs. With OKC/Dallas and Sacramento/Washington on ESPN, there were plenty of other entertaining NBA viewing options last night and yours truly took full advantage of the remote in order to see them. Again, I don't think this effort is indicative of a larger trend (i.e. a team that quits); rather, it was simply a bad night in terms of effort and focus. Who should be blamed for this? Ultimately, the coaching staff but that doesn't really matter. What matters is that I found it pretty damn easy to flip the channel to watch the Thunder and Kings, two teams that were worse than the 2008/09 Wolves and who are now both hugely watchable, entertaining, and competitive. I think the Wolves are filled to the brim with a bunch of fine outstanding citizens who I really want to see succeed (for example: Brewer and Gomes) but ultimately there is a line that I'm not going to cross in terms of watching a bad product. Last night's game was a bad product. Too many blank stares and possessions with no ball movement. The Wolves had a chance to cut the lead below 10 with a few minutes to go in the 3rd. Instead of moving the ball around and attacking the paint like they were in the first quarter and a half of play, they ended the possession with two soul-sucking Al Jefferson 15 foot jump shots that book-ended an offensive rebound to keep the play alive. Each time he got the ball during this stretch, Big Al grinded the possession to a halt, faced his defender, and moseyed around a bit before jacking up a mid range jumper on a night where he wasn't shooting well. During the first quarter and a half, the ball was moving, players were driving and kicking, and the Wolves were scoring in transition. At somewhere during the middle of the 2nd quarter, it seemed like a switch went off and ball movement went out the window.
Shooting. A byproduct of bad ball movement and poor effort was a mountain of long and mid range jumpers from a squad that doesn't have any good shooters. The Wolves ended the game with an eFG of 39%. If you throw out Kevin Love's 7-12 effort, they only posted a 35% eFG while going 0-9 from beyond the arc. It's not just that the Wolves were taking long and mid range jumpers, it's that they were taking contested long and mid range jumpers without making attempts to turn their bad look into something better for a teammate. Again, effort contributed to the poor shooting and it led to many a click over to the Dallas/OKC game where I was almost blinded by the awful orange shoes of the Thunder.
Weak side defense. Ouch. I can't remember how many times during the game where I watched a Clipper player (usually Baron Davis) dribble to the corner, get doubled, and then kick the ball across the court for an open shot and/or drive. It wasn't just that the Wolves were doubling a guy they should have been begging to shoot, it was that the other three puppies on the court seemed hell-bent on drifting towards the double-team, further opening up the weak side of the court. I'm not the only person to notice this:

Minnesota has no orientation whatsoever to their defense. Like a lot of young units, the Wolves’ off-ball defenders overplay the strong side. There are moments when Baron is trapped in the right corner with two other defenders cheating that way (2nd, 3:50). Smart teams beg Baron to shoot from that distance, but for some reason the Wolves think they can beat the Clips by pressuring Davis. This dynamic is one reason Rasual Butler is able to find as many clean looks as he does against Wayne Ellington and Corey Brewer in the second quarter, and why the Clips are able to reverse the ball for easy shots at will.

It was also noticed by the coaching staff:

"Our weakside defense was awful. It was absolutely awful. We were unattentive, we didn't anticipate, we didn't read. Very poor," Rambis said. "We didn't root guys off the post, didn't try to deny post opportunities, and our double teams were sporadic. Getting to cutters, rotating to shooters, the whole thing collapsed. That was a disappointment."

It was atrocious. Aggressive double teaming is one thing, having the other guys on the floor getting locked in on the double team and drifting towards it is another. Again, this is another example of poor effort and a lack of concentration. The Wolves really blew it last night. They had a chance to put together their first winning streak of the season against a below average Clipper squad at home. Instead of taking advantage of an opportunity to (relatively) raise the roof and give their hometown fans something to be excited about, they laid an egg and made them turn the channel. Now that's preposterous.

GameFlow can be found here. Four Factors if you care:

	Pace	Eff	eFG	FT/FG	OREB%	TOr
LA Clippers	98.0	122.4	57.8%	17.8	31.0	10.2
Minnesota		96.9	39.0%	26.4	28.6	12.2

You may notice that today's post was led off with a picture of a Sacramento Monarch. That woman's name is Rebekkah Brunson. She is the 6'3" former All Star forward taken by the Lynx with the 2nd pick in the WNBA dispersal draft. She has a career 18.5 reb% and last year she put up a PER of 19.1. While the Wolves are busy putting up dud efforts on nights where they should be giving their equivalent of a playoff effort, the Lynx are busy putting together one of the best young rosters in all of professional basketball. Is it too late to put Roger Griffith in charge of the Wolves? if you are a fan of great basketball, the best basketball in town for the next few years will indeed be played in the Target Center...by the Lynx. They are putting together a championship caliber squad. Here's hoping David Kahn can follow suit with the guys in the men's locker room.

The Truth: Boston Celtics Edge Out Grizzlies, 110-105

djturtleface — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 05:56:13 -0000

More photos » by Mark Weber - AP

Marc Gasol channeling his inner Darko. (AP Photo/ Mark Weber)

Browse more photos »

The Grizzlies may have lost two of their last three games, but they're still moving up my power rankings.

And while they might not be rising quite as fast as a couple weeks ago, the Memphis Grizzlies are showing a hell of a lot more resilience than anyone expected from this team. This recent run has seen the Grizzlies playing the Mavericks, Cavaliers, Thunder, Heat, and Celtics. That's quite the spread right there.

I don't want to take anything away from the Celtics, because that's not my point. It takes an enormous change in team culture for the Memphis Grizzlies that most people remember as the Memphis Grizzlies to come out on the second night of a traveling back-to-back and play a full-strength, reloaded championship squad down to the wire.

And this game wasn't just down to the wire, it was the Memphis Grizzlies making all the easy plays while the Celtics seemed to make all the hard ones. Don't call it luck, because it's clutch execution since the C's do it time and time again, but I honestly believe that the Grizzlies played better than the Celtics tonight.

A little more post-game plus a return to the awards are on the other side of the jump; CelticsBlog probably has clips of that Ray Allen three if you'd rather just face it now than in your nightmares.

Even a moral victory is a tough loss though, huh? I honestly believed the Grizzlies would pull this one out. They had great contributions from Jamaal Tinsley and Hasheem Thabeet. Sam Young scored a little bit too. In what seems to be becoming the norm here in Memphis, there were three scorers over 20 points on the night.

Everything seemed to go right. Rudy Gay was showing his new aggressiveness, shocking the Celtics by getting to the line seemingly at will in the first half. O.J. Mayo was a rock solid shooter, Zach Randolph was being Zach Randolph, which, as it turns out, isn't so detrimental to a team.

The difference in the game was that the Grizzlies couldn't hit their threes, with a hand in their face or not. Rudy blew it by shooting 0-5 from deep, and OJAM's long ball wasn't exactly splashing tonight -- he shot 1-6. The Celtics, by the way, made 10-20 of their three pointers. Difference maker? I wonder.

Rockness Monster: It's tough, because I really liked O.J.'s game and he defense on Ray Allen, but I have to give this one to Rudy. I don't know if it's Coach Hollins, him just putting it all together, or steal-master Z-Bo's sage advice, but Rudy has finally figured out how to make his agility, awesome hands, and creepily long arms work to start some serious thievery. The 3 steals against Paul Pierce, just like the one's against Prince James, were just a bit bigger than huge.

U-Turn: Hasheem Thabeet posted 8 rebounds and 4 blocks in 18 minutes. This boy's learning how to play the game of basketball.

Bitter Limon: Is plus/minus really one-hundred-percent useful in a single game. No, not really. But after several solid performances, Mike Conley looked pretty mediocre and posted a team worst -12. Jamaal Tinsley tied his 4 assists. The difference is that Ashey Larry only played a third of the minutes and was the only Grizzlies with a positive plus/minus at +7.

Sleeping With the Enemy: Maybe it's my Midwestern sensibilities, but if there's one thing I hate more than the city of Boston, it's their sports teams. Don't care about the enemy. I have nothing to say terrible about the Celtics that I haven't already said a million times about Dancing With the Stars -- they're all fake, way past their prime, and their knees will be shot by the end of the year anyhow.

Congratulations Utah!!!

Stop-n-Pop — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 04:46:03 -0000

You are now responsible for 1/2 of the Wolves' victories. Well done. A zombie dance for you.

Game wrap in a bit.

UPDATE: Game wrap below the fold.

The Jazz are an interesting team. On one hand, they have some thoroughly non-enjoyable/unlikable talent. Carlos Boozer is a Dookie in preparation for leaving a 2nd team in his wake, Kyle Korver is a silly Iowegan, and Jerry Sloan will continue to coach as if the league were still in the midst of a coked-out pre-80s haze. On the other hand, they have the player I consider to be the best and most entertaining point guard in the game: Deron Williams. As much as I cannot stand to watch a backstabbing Dookie, Coach Cleaver, and the most annoying fellow Creighton Jayhawk in the world, there is no player I enjoy watching more when he is "on" than the former Illini point.

A couple of games ago the Wolves' TV crew ran a poll about who they thought was the best point guard in the game. I can't remember who they ended up picking, but for my money's worth, if I'm putting together a squad to win it all, here are my top 3 picks at the point: Williams, Rajon Rondo, and Tony Parker. Williams, to me, is the greatest surgeon in the game. He's not as flashy as Chris Paul or Steve Nash but he's physically dominant for his position with a balanced game that picks apart his opponent with precision and consistency. From the line, from mid-range, from beyond the arc, in transition, in 1/2 court...the guy does it all. He was playing out of the post of several key possessions in the 4th quarter and it baffles me that Sloan didn't ride that horse hard. Plus, when the game is on the line and time is running off the clock in a must-win playoff game, he can get his shot off in traffic, which is an amazingly important trait that some possess while others do not. Sorry CP3, I want D-Will for that possession.

Anywho, the first thing that should be pointed out about last night's tilt was that Williams was the best player on the court and it wasn't even close. He shot the lights out from the floor, got to the line a ton, dished out 13 assists, and...well, (robot voice on) Jerry Sloan is a fantastic coach and he knows exactly how to use Mr. Williams (robot voice off).

OK, now that we've talked about Utah's point guard, let's take a few minutes to gab about Jonny Flynn. Flynn undoubtedly shows flashes of brilliance. His quickness is world class and while he still needs to learn a thing or two about running a pro offense, his court vision is top shelf. His outside shot is surprisingly serviceable and should he ever develop an ability to dish off of the drive, he'll be damn near unguardable. That being said, the flashes of brilliance are accompanied by stretches of outright boobery. The CP3 inbounds boner in the NOLA game stands out over anything else but he is also guilty of overdribbling, going too much to his right, and inexcusably holding the ball when it is rotated his way on a nightly basis. Adding to our T-Wolves dictionary (first addition: Brewsist) is the Jonny Stop: The way in which a freely moving ball is stopped by an ultra-quick lead guard who uses the opportunity to survey the court and negate his greatest strength, his speed.

Watching Flynn play the point you can practically see his High School/AAU/Syracuse coaching play out in a motion picture thought bubble above his head. This kid has been the dominant lead guard for so long, and he has played for so long against such relatively inferior competition, that his first instinct in close games and/or highly leveraged situations is to do what he has always done: Be the be-all/end-all of ball movement and end the damn possession for his team. At Niagra Falls High, NY AAU, and Syracuse, his speed alone was enough to get the job done. No need for setting up teammates. No need for creating angles. No need for worrying about the shot clock. When the heat was on, it was Jonny, the ball, and his defender. This kind of nonsense will not fly in the NBA for a player like Flynn. He's not that quick. Maybe it will have its time and place in a few years when he gets the benefit of the whistle and learns how to better incorporate his teammates, but not now. While Flynn ended the contest with a career high in points while shooting the lights out from beyond the arc, he stunted several key possessions with the Jonny Stop. Also, while I'm very, very happy that he made the game winning shot, I think I suffered a Randy Foye flashback with the kamikaze drive down the right side of the lane. At least he didn't try and bank it off the shot clock.

Let's wrap this up with some bullet points.

Should the Wolves have lost, Kevin Love and Damien Wilkins would have been my choices for goats of the game. There is no dumber shot in all of basketballdom than the foot-on-the-line 3. There is no excuse for it. It has all the risk of a 3 pointer with none of the reward. Dumb, dumb, dumb, and more dumb. Love and Wilkins both made toe-on-the-line 2 pointers.
While Flynn took some heat earlier this season for an ill-conceived behind-the-back pass attempt, he and Love ran the behind-the-back pick-and-roll twice in the last two minutes of the game and it netted them two wide open three point attempts. It's really not a flashy play and it has the potential to be a nice addition to the offense. I want to see a lot more of the middle pick and roll with Love and Flynn.
The star of the game has to go to Corey Brewer. There were a few points in the game where Brewer reverted to the holy-crap-he's-everywhere kind of player that we got kind of excited about a few weeks ago. He was dunking, sticking shots, rebounding, and holding people up on defense all night long. It really is amazing how different this team looks with competent wing play. Imagine if they had some outside shooting to go along with the competent wing play. Paging Rudy Gay.
If the flash went to Flynn and the star went to Brewer, the workhorse award goes to Big Al Jefferson. The guy is really starting to return to form and he played the role of the bruising running back, grinding out short yardage situation after short yardage situation in order to keep drives alive and his team in the game. This site has been home to a long standing debate over the relative worth of Jefferson and Kevin Love for about 2 years now and my current thoughts on the duo are this: The problem with the Wolves is not Al Jefferson and Kevin Love. Neither has the advantage of playing with a consistently competent wing player or an outside shooter worth his salt. Neither has the advantage of playing with a group of properly-sized perimeter players. There is nothing wrong with having 1 or 2 undersized players in your rotation provided that you surround them with athleticism and length. Al and Love have complimentary skills and they are obscenely skilled on the offensive end of the court. My take on the pairing is that they are still in need of a Joakim Noah/Jason Thompson 3rd wheel and a pair of athletic slashers on the wing. I have been saying this since before Love came aboard. In the front court I want the aforementioned Noah/Thompson type and on the wing I have opined for, in order, Josh Smith, Trevor Ariza, and Rudy Gay. This team can put it together with some competent wing play and for either Flynn or Ricky Rubio to work out at the point...or for John Wall to land at the doorstep of 600 First Avenue. Wings, an athletic backup big, and hashing out the point guard situation, these are the things that need to be worried about before talking about whether or not Love and Jefferson can play together. Rudy Gay, Rudy Gay, Rudy Gay. Please, get 'r done. It has been obvious for over 2 years.

OK, that does it for tonight's wrap. We'll have a very cool announcement on the site tomorrow and then I'll follow that up with a post on the Lynx's choice in the supplemental draft, Rebekkah Brunson.

PS: If you really want to know why the Wolves won, it was because they collected a very large number of their misses:

	Pace	Eff	eFG	FT/FG	OREB%	TOr
Minnesota	98.0	112.2	52.4%	27.7	32.6	15.3
Utah		110.2	53.7%	25.9	17.1	12.2

When you have an eFG of over 50% and you are collecting a 1/3 of your misses, life is good. This is another reason why you don't want to monkey with the Love/Jefferson duo. If you surround them with competent perimeter players, they will destroy the boards. BTW: We need to come up with a Wolves Dictionary term for when Love grabs an offensive rebound in between 3-4 defenders.

Celtics Score Last

Jeff Clark — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 03:38:16 -0000

More photos » by Mark Weber - AP

He had a Gay-o time.

Browse more photos »

Wire to wire this was a close game. Neither team could push the lead past 5 or so for any length of time. The Celtics simply were able to score a few more times down the stretch than the Griz. That's what good teams do.

Interesting note: At one point in the first half, Sheed had just missed consecutive 3's. Out of the huddle CSN reported that Doc stressed to Sheed to get in the paint more (somewhere Pistons nation must have been chuckling). Sure enough, Sheed got in the paint and scored 3 or 4 buckets on the hapless Zach Randolph. So it seems Sheed can be coached after all. Of course he went back to shooting (mostly open) 3's later, but still.

Rudy Gay bolted out to 17 points, but ended up with only 23 on the game.
Randolph and Mayo also each topped 20 points and the Griz shot over 51.2% from the field.
Luckily the Celtics shot 52.5% from the field.
Some of that was pace, some of it was lack of D, some of it was just plain hot shooting.
Rondo was impressive again, with 18 points and 9 assists.
All even on the boards tonight (36 each), which is a step in the right direction considering we played a team with Randolph, Thabeet, and Gasol. Also, there weren't many rebounds to go around since neither team could miss.
Lester Hudson got word before the game that he'll be headed to the D-League for a couple of weeks to get some run. I predict he'll do very well in Maine.
Yet another evenly balanced scoring effort with all the starters plus Sheed putting up double figures (and House added 9). When that happens once in a while, it can be an anomaly. When it happens regularly, you have to credit the offense and of course the way Rondo distributes the ball.
Ok, one last time. I told you so! Turns out I was aiming a little low.

Some Take, Some Give: Grizzlies beat by Thunder, 102-94

djturtleface — Sat, 12 Dec 2009 04:41:24 -0000

More photos » by Jim Weber - AP

Browse more photos »

Kevin Durant proved why he is the future superstar, while Rudy Gay is struggling to get a contract for the price of a second banana. While Durant exploded on Rudy for 32 points and 10 rebounds, Rudy looked out of place and confused on the way to a night of shooting 25% from the field.

This one appeared to be a first-half blowout, not unlike the Cavaliers game, but the Grizzlies killed it in the 3rd quarter with Zach Randolph getting after it on the boards and solid defense causing even the best Thunder players to turn into habitual shot-missers.

But in the 4th the Grizzlies fell back to playing pretty poorly on offense and terribly on defense, giving up 36 points to the Thunder. Oklahoma City scored 10 straight capped by a three-point dagger from Russell Westbrook that essentially closed out the game.

The positive points were Mike Conley putting up 20 points, 8 assists, and 3 steals and Zach Randolph snagging 20 boards and scoring 19, albeit awfully inefficiently. The rest of the Grizzlies barely made any noise, doing just enough to keep the team in it by shooting an abysmal 41% from the field and 58% from the line as a team.

Stop by Welcome to Loud City to give props, hit up the comment threads to speak your mind, and lets all send Grizzlies a get better soon card -- the next three games, at Miami, back home against Boston, and then on the road against Atlanta, aren't going to get any easier than this one.

Game 21: Oklahoma City at Memphis

Zorgon — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 20:49:46 -0000

More photos » by Lance Murphey - AP

Ryan Bowen gawked at the fact that the Thunder lost against the Grizzlies in the Pre-Season. Kyle Weaver was concerned too, but at least he tried to do something about it.

Browse more photos »

This also counts as an open thread, so feel free to post your thoughts during the game here.

Time: 7:00 PM Central Standard Time

Place: The Fedex Library, Memphis, Tennessee

TV: Fox Sports Oklahoma, Fox Sports Tennessee

Radio: WWLS The Sports Animal (98.1)

Enemy Blog(s): 3 Shades of Blue, Straight Outta Vancouver

Backstory: Just another game, or just another surprise?

Okay, so there's not a whole lot to marvel over or write about when concerning the Memphis Grizzlies.But, contrary to popular belief, they are doing relatively well. Sure, they're only on pace to win 30 some games, but they've won their last 3 games against Minnesota, Dallas, and Cleveland. And the team is showing no signs of slowing down. The starting lineup has had the talent there, but they haven't yet had the teamwork in place in order to win. Until now, at least. With a lean, mean mix of veterans and young'uns in their starting lineup that Garry St. Jean could only dream of, this team is poised and in position to upset the Thunder tonight.

Meanwhile, the Thunder got their anger out when they played the lowly and depleted Warriors, and they're well rested going into tonight's game. They straight up dominated the Grizzlies last season, and history would say that the Thunder could easily be the team to end the Grizzlies win streak.

Below: Matchups, Prediction

Matchups:

Center: Nenad Krstic vs. Marc Gasol

Pau Gasol lite may not be as good as his brother, but he's definitely much better inside than Nenad Krstic. Expect limited minutes and less than 10 points for Krstic, while the majority of the game is spent with battles between Gasol, Collison, and Thomas, with Gasol winning most of them.

Power Forward: Jeff Green vs. Zach Randolph

The story of Jeff Green's season has been his struggles against bigger power forwards, but luckily for Jeff, Zach Randolph is much of a defender. Expect both of these guys to score bucket after bucket upon each other, and for each of them to get their fair share of rebounds.

Small Forward: Kevin Durant vs. Rudy Gay

Rudy Gay is quite the dunker, but history says that Kevin Durant will win this matchup every time.

Shooting Guard: Thabo Sefolosha vs. O.J. Mayo

O.J. Mayo is a solid overall shooting guard, and history has dictated that he usually performs above-average against the Thunder. But with Thabo Sefolosha guarding him now, who knows what will happen?

Point Guard: Russell Westbrook vs. Mike Conley

Mike Conley is a solid point guard, but not the best player on the Grizzlies by any stretch of the imagination. He'll provide scoring for them in the pinch, but Westbrook will have a better game.

Battle of the Benches:

For how good their starting lineup is, the Grizzlies bench is extremely thin. A lot of guys will play, and one will occasionally step up and be an X-Factor, but in general, they're all pretty ineffective. The only real notables are this years 2nd Pick in Hasheem Thabeet, and former Pacers PG Jamaal Tinsley. In any case, our bench has this thing covered.

Coaching and Intangibles:

The Grizzlies are at home, but that doesn't make that much of a difference, as it's a pretty quiet arena, and it's where we got our much-heralded 2nd win last year. Both teams are well rested, so all in all, it makes a pretty even intangibles matchup on the floor tonight.

Bottom Line:

I know things have been going well for the Grizzlies lately, but I'm still not convinced. This is a team we beat 3 times last year, and a team without any bench help. They could win, but they'd need everything to go right with all of their starters, and they'd need to put up a good defensive effort. That being said, this team can be dangerous, and they will be able to compete. But, in the end, I'll just chalk this one up as another Thunder win.

Prediction: Thunder 103, Grizzlies 97

Let's rock the library!

How do you think the game will go? Vote in the Poll!

And, again, feel free to drop any comments you might have during, before, or after the game below. I might be by during the game to drop my thoughts as well. Go Thunder!

Poll

Who's going to win tonight?

You're Twenty Deep: Analyzing Sam Young

djturtleface — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 18:49:32 -0000

More photos » by Mark Weber - AP

Sam Young has been drawing lots of fouls as a sixth man for the Memphis Grizzlies. (AP Photo/Mark Weber)

Browse more photos »

Sam Young, not unlike our last featured player DeMarre Carroll, was a feature scorer on his college team. Unlike DeMarre, however, Sam Young's Pittsburgh Panthers were a #1 seed and predicted by many, including myself, to win the NCAA Championships with Young typically bringing the bulk of their offense.

But Sam Young, somewhat ironically, fell into the second round due to the fact that he was a 4th year senior and a staggering 24 years old. 'A man among boys' is probably not a fair description of Young's college career, but it certainly comes to mind. Chris Weinke also comes to mind, and I don't think his record f most consecutive losses by a starting quarterback is a precedent to follow.

In fact by drafting Sam Young the Memphis Grizzlies actually slightly increased their team's average age, which sat somewhere around 23.5 years old. Yes, I'm serious, rookie is older than like half of the team.

So get over the jump to check how good ol' Sam Young working out for the Grizzlies.

While you, arguably, get less 'upside' out of drafting a 24 year old player (Note: Personally I believe this is absurd; many players break out or add significant facets to their games well after the age of 24. If there is any reason that Sam Young has limited upside, it's because he isn't particularly athletic.), that should be somewhat offset by the older player being more 'NBA-ready.'

And the Grizzlies need Sam Young to be plenty ready to ball, because in the post-Iverson era, and with Darrel Arthur's injury, Young is pretty much the Grizzlies only option at 6th man.

In another similarity to Carroll, Young was originally pitched as a tweener, though he was clearly either a shooting guard or small forward. But unlike Carroll, data on his play so far shows that Young hasn't really figured out either position just yet.

Sam Young has a much higher PER at small forward due to significantly higher efficiency, his eFG% is 8% better from the forward slot, and rebounding statistics. But his defensive efficiency while playing forward is an abysmal 106 points per 100 possessions. At shooting guard his defensive efficiency jumps to a much more reasonable 102 points per 100, but his shooting is terrible.

That defensive improvement at the shooting guard is pretty much the only reason that, statistically speaking, Sam Young is warranting much playing time at all. In all the minutes he's played compared to all the minutes he hasn't, the Grizzlies are about 2 points per 100 possessions better defensively. Compare that to a 3 points per 100 possessions decrease in offense, and Sam Youngs On/Off efficiency splits are only a -1.

A negative certainly doesn't sound like a good thing, but it's actually solid for a rookie drafted so late.

And Sam Young does seem to have some clear benefits for the Grizzlies. For instance the Grizzlies get significantly more free throw attempts while Young is on the floor because he attacks the rim with a lot of confidence. This has something to do with his replacing the jump-shooting O.J. Mayo, but it is a clear benefit. Also Sam Young is one of the only players on the Grizzlies who has a positive number for net turnovers per 48 minutes. This is mostly due to Sam turning the ball over far less than either the high-usage O.J. Mayo or Rudy Gay.

While Sam Young is definitely not a top-10 sixth man in the NBA at this point in his career, he is giving the Grizzlies some positives. The main problem for Sam is finding a way to play his game on offense while playing shooting guard, which I believe will be much easier for him than becoming a better defender at small forward.

Like other sixth men around the league, when Sam Young is hot, he has helped the Grizzlies. But he just doesn't heat up often enough to warrant that role at this point. I think it's fair to say that an upgrade at this position would certainly benefit Memphis this season, though despite his age, Sam Young is showing signs that he'll develop into a well-rounded contributor off the first seat on the bench.

My Back Is A Wall: Grizzlies Thrill Big Crowd, Beat the Cavaliers

djturtleface — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 04:25:45 -0000

More photos » by Lance Murphey - AP

Browse more photos »

The Memphis Grizzlies blew up in the second half, just outright hustling to this win against the Cavaliers. The bench might not have done much, but the entire starting lineup put in an incredible night's work.

O.J. Mayo kept the Grizzlies in it through the first half, Rudy Gay closed it out on both ends in the second half, but Zach Randolph was a fixture throughout. Randolph led the Grizzlies with 32 points, O.J. Mayo had 28 while dropping a mini-triple double with 5 boards and 5 dimes, too. Rudy Gay scored 21, but his biggest contributions were the 4 steals.

After a terrible 2nd quarter, the Grizzlies equalized it in the 3rd quarter with fantastic ball-denial defense. They duked it out in the 4th, tying the game up with a Rudy Gay drive right past LeBron James. In overtime O.J. Mayo hit a huge three pointer on a set play, and then Mike Conley sealed the win with a nice layup drive on another great, intuitive play-call by Lionel Hollins.

The Grizzlies got the win despite a huge night from LeBron, who scored 43 points and tallied 13 rebounds and 6 assists, and nice contributions from both Shaquille O'Neal and Mo Williams. The rest of the Cavaliers were quiet, though LeBron was

I'm going to get in an update on this later tonight, so be sure to get over the jump for the opinion section in a hot minute.

I grew up around Cleveland hating the Cavaliers and getting hated on constantly for being a Grizzlies fan, so I'm just soaking it all in right now. To see this young team that I backed hard all summer, despite some moves most pundits called questionable, fight for this win in front of a near capacity crowd just could not have felt better.

I'm just trying to put myself in the shoes of O.J. Mayo, who gets clutch-nasty all game, is willing to drop back and trust his teammates in the second half, and then comes on for a post-game interview responding, "Yes sir, Coach McHale." Wow, I had to slap myself to check if his attitude was for real.

Talk about a team that's actually working hard to get away from their dunk-silly, Allen Iverson signing, ball-hogging recent pass. Jamaal Tinsley, who's trying to play for redemption, looked happy to be on the bench, coaching his teammates into the right defensive scheme. This is a guy who the Pacers just paid millions and millions to get the hell out of the clubhouse.

Did I see Zach Randolph missing some wide open shooters? Yes. But I saw him make some smart exit passes out of the post as well, including an under-handed gem that got Hasheem Thabeet room for a nice flourish. Did Rudy Gay takes some selfish looking shots? Yes. But he took a hell of a lot less of them then LeBron.

This game might not have meant that much to the Cavaliers, and I'm not sure if it meant that much to the Grizzlies either. Why? Because it's becoming increasingly clear that the Grizzlies players already are trusting each other and playing hard for the win.

But to move back to myself, as well as every other Grizzlies fan I can hear the voice of around the world wide web, it meant a lot to us. Why? Because the Memphis Grizzlies are finally starting to prove to everyone else that they're coming together as a basketball team that demands respect.

You're Twenty Deep: Analyzing DeMarre Carroll

djturtleface — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 17:08:58 -0000

More photos » by Matt York - AP

Browse more photos »

DeMarre Carroll was a player in college at Mizzou. He was a legitimate college franchise guy; they built a team around him and he carried them into the tourney.

Nobody expected that kind of play out of him in Memphis, or anywhere in the NBA for that matter. DeMarre is a perfect example of the college tweener. He plays and works his ass off to make the best use of relatively limited natural abilities, but hard work isn't enough to make you a star in the NBA.

Even a guy like Gerald Wallace, who is admittedly limited in the more skill-centric facets of the game, has to go harder than anyone else in the league to make his incredible natural abilities work like they should. DeMarre Carroll has nowhere near the physical abilities of Wallace, but the working-man spirit is the same.

Now if you're going to evaluate a hustle player, where do you look? Rebounds and steals are traditionally known as "hustle stats." I personally don't believe that for a second, Carlos Boozer grabs mad boards but he's not exactly know for his dedication to the game. And steals are a tough read on this Grizzlies team; because the overall defense is tremendously poor, there are less tipped passes out there to get down and dirty chasing.

Still lets take a brief look at turnovers. It's alright to be fearful of small sample size, I suppose, but with DeMarre on the court the Grizzlies draw just as many turnovers as they do without him on the court. This probably means that Carroll is forcing some extra turnovers while replacing Zach Randolph, while being a little less disruptive on defense than Rudy Gay.

This point brings us rather quickly into the fact that DeMarre is being played out of position when filling in for Rudy. DeMarre cannot play small forward, he is only suitable as a power forward. Using 82games.com again today, it becomes obvious pretty quickly that Carroll is pretty horrendous at the small forward spot, with a PER of only .6 while playing almost 40% of his minutes there.

And that revelation makes DeMarre Carroll's role with the team going forward a little bit ambiguous. Darrell Arthur is a better NBA player than Carroll, and should be the Grizzlies backup power forward. That means Carroll's minutes are going to dry up in a month or two, unless the Grizzlies want to suffer him trying to figure out how to play tons of extremely inefficient minutes while out of position.

Moving back to his time so far, DeMarre has been a more than adequate sub. Data shows that the Grizzlies only play about 2 points per 100 possessions worse with him in, which isn't bad for a rookie substitute and a second rounder in most drafts. But would I rather have DeJuan Blair? Yes.

That's not to say DeMarre isn't putting in his work. To move away from the statistics, it's clear that he's giving it all out there. He brings lots of energy, but doesn't have the skill yet to become an impact player. Other teams happily allow the Grizzlies to run catch-and-shoot plays for him, and his driving layup is ugly, though he's willing to jump into a brick wall if it means getting to the line.

Twenty games in, DeMarre Carroll has given the Memphis Grizzlies everything they could have expected. He hasn't impressed, but he hasn't underwhelmed either. Carroll gets in, plays hard enough to make up for most of the skill gap, and happily takes the bruises that come with being the working-man.