SB Nation - Steve Novak

Tony Allen: Waive, Work or Keep for Insurance?

tenaciousT — Sat, 15 Aug 2009 07:49:01 -0000

More photos » by Michael Perez - AP

Tony has been rumored to be in every Celtic trade suggestion from Marquis Daniels to Sidney Wicks. At least in what has made print, Danny Ainge has offered Tony and Gabe Pruitt around the league like a waiter offers those last couple of hors d'oeuvres turned cold sitting on the plate in the middle of the party. ‘Care for one? They're really good.'

‘No thank you. I'll pass.'

Pruitt is gone. Tony is still here. Larry Bird was reported to not want Tony in a sign and trade for Daniels. Not because Tony can't play the game, but because of ‘off court distractions' that Bird has been working hard to distance his team from ever since he took over complete control of player personnel decisions from Donnie Walsh.

Many think the Tony Allen situation is already clear.

That's understandable. But there has been little direction from Celtic management on Tony Allen to this point. Many consider his off court issues to be the central problem from last season. It could be argued that the bigger issue was his health. He only played 46 games.

The year started with great promise.

NBA.com preseason report on October 11...

Update: Allen had 25 points in the Celtics' preseason win over the Cavs on Friday night.

Analysis: Allen may fill the sixth man role left by James Posey, especially if he can find his scoring touch.

Then this October 19 report from NBA.com....

Looking Strong in Preseason
Update: Allen had 32 points in three quarters during the Celtics' preseason game against New Jersey on Thursday, according to the Boston Herald.

Analysis: Allen seems like the current favorite for the sixth man role left by James Posey, and has shown an ability to score in bunches. His defensive issues, however, may end up reducing his playing time as the season continues.

November 23rd ....

Instant Offense off Bench
Update: Allen had 15 points and six rebounds in the Celtics' win over the Raptors on Sunday.

Analysis: Allen has now posted double-figure scoring in three straight games, and is averaging 20.6 points per 48 minutes.

December 2nd, the first shoe drops, rather, the ankle turns ...

Right Ankle Sprain
Update: Allen sprained his right ankle during Boston's victory over Orlando on Monday, the Boston Globe reports.

That was the start of the season long bugaboo to Tony's healthfulness. The whole string of setbacks (and dates) for the season are noted here. But to give you a taste:

The ankle continued to vex Tony all the way through January:

Re-injures ankle - Jan. 6
Could possibly play - Jan. 10
Out one more week - Jan. 13
Returns to practice, still recovering - Jan. 26

Then Tony played in just seven games before he got a severe thumb injury with ligament damage that required surgery on Feb 17.

Tony was out until April 3rd missing 23 straight games.

Allen came back to finish the season with 18 and 15 points on 13 of 25 shooting with 7 rebounds, 8 assists, and 4 steals in the final two regular season games.

Already out of the rotation and with recurring ankle problems, he played little in the post season.

On June 3rd, Tony...

Undergoes Ankle Surgery
Update: Allen had surgery on his right ankle and leg on Wednesday, the Associated Press reports.

Analysis: The Celtics expect Allen to recover in time for training camp. Allen was hampered by his faulty ankle for most of last season, averaging 7.8 points in 34 games.

That brings us to today.

What to do about Tony Allen?

When healthy, he can still play some productive ball. But he is 27. He will be 28 in January. The Celtics have given Tony many opportunities. Primarily, it is injuries that have taken down Tony's career. He has missed 128 games in 5 years. Only twice has he played more than 51 games. At some point, it doesn't matter how good the reasons are. A change of scenery might be a good thing for everyone involved.

As of today, August 15th, through the end of the regular season, a player clears waivers after just 48 hours.

Should Tony Allen be waived? Or worked?

If he is not in the Celtics plans, waiving him helps Tony. He would be free to find a place where he can get a real opportunity to restart his career. For the Celtics, it would clear a valuable roster spot for a player that could be in training camp from the get-go. But that would mean a buy out that still counts against the cap and additional money spent on another player when the Cs are deep in luxury tax territory.

I'm normally not in favor of such moves or of contract buy outs. But in this case, the amount is relatively small - $2.5 million. Total cost with tax - $5 mil. Vet minimum replacement - another $2-2.5 million with tax. Total cost - $7.5 million.

But....the other problem is that there are few good free agent options at small forward, the position of choice, available at minimum dollars.

Ime Udoka might bite. Rodney Carney will want more money.

Other positions?
How about a shooter likes Flip Murray, Juan Dixon, or Steve Novak. Keith Bogans, Desmond Mason and Rashad McCants are still out there. Perhaps an insurance center in Aaron Gray, a Collins brother or Jake Voskuhl? Are any of these options better than having Tony Allen available on your bench?

Neither Danny nor Doc has said that Tony won't play a role. If for no other reason than Marquis Daniels often averages about 60 games a season, Tony could be a valuable fill in for 20 games a year, assuming a similar 60 game season from Marquis.

That there has been a less than hoped for performance from Tony is acknowledged by all. Nagging injuries have played a central part in his being able to establish himself. When he is healthy, he can be a contributor.

I'm looking at this strictly from a Doc Rivers, Danny Ainge, and what-is-best-for-the-Celtics-and-Tony-Allen point of view.

At this point, Tony Allen's trade value is at a low point. With Marquis Daniels about to come aboard, and J.R. Giddens in house, what is Tony's role this coming season?

Right now the 15th roster spot is assumed to go to rookie Lester Hudson or another PG possibility. If Tony is no longer in the Celtics plans, the Celtics should waive Allen. Then they could bring another player. It helps both parties.

Do you think the Celtics should waive Tony, work him, or keep him for insurance?

Poll

What to do with Tony?

Waive him

780 votes

Keep as insurance

778 votes

Work him into the lineup

324 votes

1882 votes | Poll has closed

Welcome to NBA free agency

Phoenix Stan — Tue, 30 Jun 2009 16:03:22 -0000

With the NBA free agency about to kick off on July 1st, we can expect a lot of activity over the next few days as players opt out and teams exercise their options. Mostly though, we will see a lot of movement of some big name players and perhaps even more impactful will be which young up-and-comer signs where. There is rightly a lot of discussion about next year's free agent period dubbed "The Summer of LeBron" but don't go to sleep on who's available now.

Before we get into specific players and the Suns salary situation, lets first have a quick primer on some free agency basics.

Free agency period, salary cap, luxury tax and what not

On July 1st free agents become "free" and teams are allowed to begin negotiations with those players. July 1st in effect marks the official end to the previous season from a salary calculation standpoint and the rosters are in essence reset. Like a pumpkin at midnight, on July 1st those valuable "expiring contracts" official expire.

But before teams can actually spend money on new players the league has a moratorium on signings and conducts an audit to establishe the salary cap for the coming season. The salary cap is mandated by the Collective Bargaining Agreement between the teams and players and is designed to limit how much teams can spend. The salary cap is set at 51% of the total basketball related revenue from the NBA.

The audit that will be conducted over the next few days determines what the salary cap will be for the coming year. The cap is based on overall league revenues. If the league makes less money that translates to a lower salary cap and less money for players. A pretty smart system.

The salary cap determines how much money teams can pay free agents. If a team has $10m under the cap it can spend up to $10m to sign a free agent.

There are exceptions to the salary cap which allow teams to exceed the limit. Most of these exceptions like "Bird Rights" allow teams to exceed the cap to resign it's own free agents. The system is designed to encourage players to remain with the same team and limit player movement.

The other well known exception is the "Mid-level Exception" which allows a team to sign one or more players up to an amount equal to the average league salary. The MLE is expected to be about $5.6m this summer.

Between the MLE (which can be used on one player each year) and the various other exceptions you can see that teams quickly exceed the salary cap making it a so-called "soft cap". The Suns for example were $17m over the salary cap last season.

The other big impact of the salary cap is on trades. If two teams want to make a trade and both are over the salary cap then the salaries have to match salaries within 125%. If however, a team is under the salary cap it can use its cap space to receive the incoming player's salary and not have to send back and equivalent salary amount. This is a very important factor in trades and is why teams with cap space have a lot of leverage when it comes to making trades with teams wanting to cut payroll.

On July 8th, when the audit is complete and the salary cap is officially set teams can official begin signing free agents and can continue to sign them throughout the season.

The Luxury Tax is the next limit teams work within. The lux tax is established at essentially 61% of all basketball related income. Last season it was $71m and like the salary cap had grown about $3m every year since the 2005 CBA went into effect. This season both the salary cap and luxury tax are expected to stay about the same or perhaps decline as a result of the economy.

The luxury tax is calculated based on the total payroll a team has at the end of the season. This is important as a team that is over the tax and wanting to get under it has until the February trade deadline to shed payroll. The problem at that point is the only way to get under the tax for the current season is to make a deal with a team that has salary cap space.

When the Suns traded Kurt Thomas to the Seattle Supersonics to save $16m, Kerr had to "pay" the Sonic two first round picks to compensate the Sonics for using their cap space. If the Suns had held on to Thomas and traded him at the deadline as the Sonic did, they would not have saved the $16m as they would have had to receive contracts back. Again, this shows why teams that are under the cap have a lot of leverage and flexibility when it comes to making deals.

The luxury tax is paid dollar for dollar for any salary over the tax line meaning a team that is $4m over the tax line will pay $4m in tax. The tax gets distributed to non-tax paying teams making the process even more painful.

For more detailed CBA information see the Salary Cap FAQ

Where are the Suns now?

On July 1st the Suns will have 12 players under contract totaling about $73m in salary. That assumes they waive Pavlovic and are on the hook for only the $1.5m guaranteed portion of his full $4.5m contract. When you add in a $2m place holder for Grant Hill who is the Suns highest priority free agent and $800k for Taylor Griffin you are at 14 players at $76m which is projected to be about $4m over the tax line.

If the Suns hadn't made the trade with Cleveland they would be at $81m including Hill and Clark and assuming they wouldn't sign Griffin or any other players.

Ben Wallace has said that he's considering retirement. If he were to accept a buy out of $10m that would save the Suns $8m and put them in a sound financial position. If he were to be traded to the Hornets for Chandler's $12m salary the team would still save about $4m. As we said when the deal went down, Wallace's intentions are important to what the Suns do over the next few weeks. If he decides he wants to play next season the Suns have no option but to pay him the full $14m. Chances are good though that we will take a buy out and either retire or sign somewhere else for much less.

If the Suns don't do anything else other then sign Clark to the rookie scale and Griffin to a minimum contract and then lock up Grant Hill for about $2m then they will be paying $4m in tax. They've said they are fine with this.

What the Suns don't have (unlike numerous teams) is the room under either salary cap or the luxury tax to sign any of the free agents available. Using the MLE would cost the team over $10m in salary and tax and they are not going to do that.

Who's got money to spend?

Using $65m as the line between teams that can spend the MLE without going to far over the luxury tax, there are 14 teams that can be considered buyers in the upcoming free agency spending period. That doesn't mean all of those teams will use the MLE but they reasonably could. Those teams in order of highest payroll to lowest are:

Bulls, Rockets, Clippers, Warriors, Nets, 76ers, Trailblazers, Kings Timberwolves, Raptors, Hawks, Thunder, Pistons and Grizzlies. Those last three teams are all about $17m to $21m under the salary cap making them major players in this market.

That's not to say certain teams with deep pocketed owners won't go even further over the luxury tax to sign certain players. The Knicks who are already about $4m over the tax line are reportedly interested in signing Jason Kidd and the Lakers who are $5m over are going to have to decide how much more to spend on Odom and/or Ariza. The Mavericks with Cuban's checkbook are right at the luxury tax line and have the very movable contract of Jerry Stackhouse which should make them a player as well.

Who's available?

There are some big names out there to be had by those teams with money to spend. There are quite a few solid power forwards available and a couple of very good point guards. There are also some very interesting big names like Shawn Marion, Rasheed Wallace, Allen Iverson and Stephon Marbury. I can't wait to find out where those guys end up.

Stay tuned, the next few weeks are going to be interesting.

Here's a quick look at some of the bigger names. For the full list click here:

Centers

Rasheed Wallace
Mehmet Okur
Marcin Gortat
Chris Anderson
Zaza Pachulia
Rasho Nesterovic
Others include: Ryan Hollins, Johan Petro and Joel Anthony

Power Forwards

Carlos Boozer
Brandon Bass
Paul Milsap
Charlie Villanueva
David Lee
Lamar Odom
Glen Davis
Leon Powe
Marvin Williams
Chris Wilcox
Channing Frye
Others include: Rob Kurz, Joe Smith, Walter Herrmann, James Singleton, Hakim Warrick

Small Forwards

Linas Kleiza
Ron Artest
Trevor Ariza
Jamario Moon
Matt Barnes
Grant Hill
Shawn Marion
Hedo Turkoglu
Rashad McCants
Others include: Steve Novak, Stephen Graham, Gerald Green

Shooting Guards

Point Guards

Flip Murray
Stephon Marbury
Raymond Felton
Jason Kidd
Allen Iverson
Ramon Sessions
Nate Robinson
Andre Miller
Anthony Carter

The Shopping List

atthehive — Mon, 29 Jun 2009 00:03:53 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

Ike Diogu is one of the 50 front court options NBA teams have this summer.

Browse more photos »

I took a look at our budget last post (1-2 million dollars to sign one player). Now, let's assess what people are going to cost.

I've tried to include every front court free agents (UFA and RFA) that I could find here, but if I missed any, let me know. Big thanks to this list from Depressed Fan and to ESPN player pages. Quick explanation of the table: Restricted refers to UFA/RFA status, competitors refers to projected number of teams that want the player, Salary projection is my estimation of the player's market value, and target refers to whether New Orleans can reasonably target the player (in parantheses is an explanation of why (expensive, etc)).

The full 50 player table after the jump.

Player	Restricted?	Last Salary	Competitors	Projection ($)	Target?
Rasheed Wallace	No	20.1M	3+	10-15	No ($)
Malik Rose	No	11.5M	0	Minimum	No (sucks)
Drew Gooden	No	3.0M	1-2	2-4	Yes ($)
Chris Wilcox	No	10.1M	1-2	2-5	Yes ($)
Stromile Swift	No	0.83M	0-1	Minimum	Yes
Shawn Marion	No	20.1M	3+	12-18	No ($)
Ike Diogu	Yes	8.8M	0-1	2-4	Yes ($)
Lamar Odom	No	20.1M	3+	15-20	No ($)
Paul Millsap	Yes	1.6M	3+	unknown, but $$$	No ($)
Charlie Villanueva	Yes	10.3M	1-2	8-15	No ($)
Joe Smith	No	2.4M	1-2	2-4	Yes ($)
Shelden Williams	No	4.1M	0-1	Minimum	Yes
Maceo Baston	No	4.5M	0-1	1-2	Yes
Cedric Simmons	No	2.7M	0	Minimum	No (sucks)
Marcin Gortat	Yes	0.83M	0	Minimum	No (sucks)
Chris Andersen	No	0.83M	2-3	2-4	Yes (DEN)
Channing Frye	Yes	9.5M	0-1	2-4	No ($, sucks)
Hakim Warrick	Yes	6.4M	1-2	4-8	Yes ($)
David Lee	Yes	6.1M	3+	unknown, but $$$	No ($)
Steve Novak	No	1.0M	0-1	min-3	Yes
Donyell Marshall	No	0.83M	0-1	Minimum	Yes (old)
Ryan Bowen	No	0.83M	0	Minimum	Yes
Michael Ruffin	No	0.83M	0	Minimum	Yes
Shavlik Randolph	No	0.83M	0-1	Minimum	Yes
Leon Powe	Yes	0.83M	3+	Unknown, but $$	No ($)
Glen Davis	Yes	1.0M	2-3	3-7	Yes (BOS)
Raef LaFrentz	No	19.1M	0	Negative	No (sucks)
Rasho Nesterovic	No	12.6M	1-2	3-5	Yes ($)
Jason Collins	No	9.3M	0	Minimum	No (sucks)
Zaza Pachulia	No	8.0M	2-3	4-5	No ($)
Robert Swift	No	7.2M	0	Minimum	Yes
Aaron Gray	Yes	0.83M	0-1	Minimum	Yes
Chris Mihm	No	5.0M	0-1	2-3	Yes
Saer Sene	No	0.83M	0	Minimum	Yes
Jarron Collins	see Jason	4.1M	see Jason	see Jason	see Jason
DJ Mbenga	No	0.96M	0	Minimum	No (sucks)
Calvin Booth	No	2.7M	0	Minimum	No (sucks)
Melvin Ely	No	0.83M	0	Minimum	Yes (sucks)
Ryan Hollins	No	0.83M	0-1	1-2	Yes
Lorenzen Wright	No	0.83M	0	Minimum	Yes (old)
Adonal Foyle	No	0.83M	0	Minimum	Yes (old)
Jamaal Magloire	No	0.83M	0-1	Minimum	Yes (old)
Sean Marks	No	0.83M	0	Minimum	Yes (old)
Theo Ratliff	No	0.83M	0-1	Minimum	Yes (old)
Johan Petro	Yes	5.9M	0-1	2-3	Yes
Jake Voskuhl	No	0.83M	0-1	Minimum	No (sucks)
Marvin Williams	Yes	14.1M	3+	10-15	No ($)
James Singleton	No	0.83M	0-1	Minimum	Yes (DAL)
Walter Herrmann	No	4.0M	0-1	2-4	Yes

So out of the 50 UFA/RFA big men of 2009, the Hornets can put 30 of them on their radar.

As you can see, there are a ton of guys out there. Not all of these guys (or even half these guys, I suspect) are going to find homes next season. Yes, there is a good deal of variance, but the supply is definitely greater than the demand.

There are four tiers the 30 players can be split into.

"Uh Oh, Everybody's Gone And/Or (Probably And) We're Broke."

Among the 30 potential signees, we can probably classify some of them as last gasp options due to suckage, old age, or some combination of the two. Of all the players I gave a 'yes' in the far right column, here are the ones I'd categorize as last resorts:

Steve Novak: The Hornets have gaping holes in their frontcourt, but specifically they need to target rebounders. When David West and Tyson Chandler hit the bench, Byron Scott won't appreciate a big man that spends 99.999% of his time between three point arcs. Novak's rebound rate is barely half of Hilton Armstrong's. Yeah. Consider this the last last resort.
Donyell Marshall- DMarsh is another three point specialist, but he's been a stellar defensive rebounder throughout his career. The issues clearly are that he's 36 years old, and he's nearing retirement. Toss in a recent comment about how he'd want to come in and mentor guys if he joined a new team (nothing on actually playing), and you don't have a great combination.
Michael Ruffin- He's undersized but a fantastic rebounder on offense and defense. The question with him is playing time. He only got 11 games last year, 46 the year before, and 30 before that. Nobody knows how he'd hold up over 82, especially now that he's on the wrong side of 30.
Ryan Bowen- Great hustle, but I don't think I need to elaborate much here.
Shavlik Randolph- Randolph only got in 89 games in his first 4 years in the league. But he's shown some serious potential on the boards. The risk is that if we pin our one rebounding hope on the 25 year old and he blows up, well, we won't be in great shape.
Robert Swift- Showed lots of potential, once upon a time. He's the madly tattooed, infinitely riskier Shavlik Randolph.
Saer Sene- 47 games in three years. He'll be mad cheap, but he's 7'0" and weighs 220 pounds. You tell me how that's gonna end up.
Melvin Ely- Yeah.
Ryan Hollins- I rank Hollins somewhere between Last Resorts and the next category. He's a great shot blocker with good timing, and while he isn't the most impressive defensive boarder, his offensive figures are nice. He brings great energy to both sides of the floor. With Eric Dampier rumored to be on his way out of Dallas, I wonder how much the Mavs will spend to keep him. My feeling is they like him a good bit... and Hollins is only worth it if he comes cheap.
Lorenzen Wright- With age, his offensive boarding figures have slipped badly. And last year, not one, not two, but three teams (ATL, SAC, CLE) tossed him in the their respective trash cans. He brings size (6'11), if not bulk (225), and he has a career full of good defensive rebounding. One of the better Last Resort picks, though it wouldn't be a flashy signing at all.
Adonal Foyle- And if you thought Lorenzen was the antithesis of all things stylish, well, apparently, you've never seen this guy. Most famous for clanging an open 7 footer off the side of the backboard, Foyle's actually a decent option. The problem here is that he spent most of last year injured. Not sure the Hornets are willing to gamble on a 34 year old's health.
Sean Marks- I think Marks is a last resort, not because of his play necessarily, but because it wouldn't go over well with the fans. Most Hornets' supporters are looking for a front court overhaul. The truth is, Marks' 9/18/13.5 rebounding split from last year wasn't shabby at all. An understatedly decent last resort option
Theo Ratliff- Ratliff hasn't been discussed in a basketball context ever since he legally changed his name to The Expiring Contract of Theo Ratliff some time in 2004. Though the dude is older than my pet rock, he provided Philadelphia some boards and some blocks last year. Overall, he's way too old to be considered a good signing.
Johan Petro- I'd rank the Denver center higher (his rebounding numbers are terrific) but he seemingly never plays, and he is straight up horrible at basketball. A center with a 43% true shooting percentage? Unbelievably atrocious.
Stromile Swift- From 2000-2008, SS was a serviceable player. Great rebounder, good shot blocker, coudl even put the ball in the bucket unassisted, once a month. Suddenly everybody forgot about him, and he played nineteen of the most anonymous games in NBA history with NJN and PHO last season. One of those guys where if he goes to the Knicks, everyone will rag on them for getting another overpaid bust, and if he goes to the Spurs, everyone will praise them for getting another underpaid overachiever. If he goes to New Orleans? Who knows.
Walter Herrmann- Imagine Hilton Armstrong with range. (If you can actually do this, I have just one question: are you on drugs?)

"Yeah If We Got Him, Sweet... But We're Not Getting Him"

Glen Davis- Boston is going to keep him. Danny Ainge will re-sign him. Kevin Garnett will continue to make him cry. I don't see many ways around this. Plus, his rebounding is mediocre, his offensive abilities are vastly overrated on the strength of one or two jumpers he made in the playoffs, and he really isn't that great at anything else. So "If we got him, sweet" would probably not be an accurate description of Glen Davis, now that I think about it.
Joe Beast- aka Joe Smith to those unacquainted with his hip hop skills. Smith is kind of like Davis in that his team is probably going to keep him (I can't see Cleveland performing a single action that does not directly contribute towards the appeasement of the Great One). Smith is also kind of not like Davis in that he's actually good at basketball.
Antonio McDyess- Dice is likely out of the Pistons' price range this summer, though they have said they want to keep him. He made 6 million+ last year. I know there's always the chance he takes a pay cut to join a contender... but who really considers the Hornets a contender now any way?
Chris Andersen- The league leader in block rate will be getting some sort of financial upgrade, and probably one from Denver. If not, there will be plenty of teams just salivating at the thought of overpaying the 31 year old.
Hakim Warrick- Warrick is another guy in line for an upgrade on his 1.5 million a year salary. He's not the most efficient scorer, but I'd say he's the most underrated foul drawer in the entire league (6.6 FTA/36, which would be 0.3 more than Chris Paul, without the aid of superstar calls). He's a decent rebounder too. If Memphis doesn't realize what they have on their hands, plenty of others will do the realizing for them.
Marcin Gortat- If recent rumors are to be believed, the Magic are in hot pursuit of Rasheed Wallace and/or Brandon Bass. It sure sounds like they're gearing up to lose their backup power forward. The Gortat situation is a tricky one to read. On the one hand, he made under a million dollars last year. On the other hand, he had a great postseason and pretty much the entire NBA now knows about him. Positives: beastly rebounder, very efficient scorer, brings terrific energy. Downside: fouls a lot, but who really cares. But all this misses a crucial point- several teams have already reportedly discussed offering Gortat a large part of their midlevel exceptions (five million plus).

"Maybe They'll Forgive Us For Not Taking Blair Now"

Radoslav Nesterovic- aka Rasho to those unacquainted with Slovenian. Nesterovic is one of the few 30+ options I wouldn't mind. He has size (7'), bulk (250), and the career rebounding split (10/17/13) to warrant a serious look. The biggest issue would be salary. He made 7 million+ last year alone, and he hasn't earned below 2.5 mil since 2002-2003. If he agreed to take a pay cut with us, that'd be terrific.
Aaron Gray- It's universally agreed that Aaron Gray sucks, but he could help us out big time in the rebounding department. With a 14/22/18 split last year, he would bring rebounding figures that very few free agent bigs could match. He should be dirt cheap (making less than half a million last year on a second rounder contract). With a lot of teams looking at the flashier names, we're likely to receive less competition to sign him. And of course, the kicker is that he's a big from the University of Pittsburgh, something a lot of people seemed to want around these parts.
Shelden Williams- I've always loved Williams. Seemingly not in possession of a neck, he'd be the perfect complement to Hilton "The Ostrich" Armstrong. He posted super awesome terrific rebounding figures with ATL his rookie year before they moved him to Sacramento. He finished last year in Minnesota. He seems universally unwanted, but he'd be a tremendous bargain for the Hornets.
Maceo Baston- Baston's first salary was 20,000 with the Chicago Bulls in 1999. So I'm thinking he might be down to make a couple million with us next year. Last year with Toronto, he posted an 11/15/13 rebounding split in 27 games. He draws fouls at a decent rate and has a nice offensive game. He can also block a few shots here and there. The biggest problem is his size- 6'9" and 215 pounds; I don't know how long he can hold up.
Chris Mihm- Mihm has posted very, very nice rebounding numbers throughout his career. (a career 11/19/14 split). I thought we'd seen the last of him after his sparring session with D.J. Mbenga, but who knows. Could be an attractive option, given the lack of competition and low price.
Jamaal Magloire- 14/24/19 rebounding split last year. That's all you gotta know about the Big Cat. He will rebound the hell out of that ball.
James Singleton- Thanks to reader Scott for e-mailing to me about Singleton. Personally, this would be one of my favorite signings if it happened. Singleton, who broke into the League as a swingman, has seriously bulked up in recent years. He posted a 12/21/16 rebounding split with Dallas last year, terrific numbers for any player, let alone one making the minimum. He was also very efficient at putting the ball in the bucket (the most efficient out of any of the 30 on this list). Want more? He didn't turn the ball over, and Dallas put a fair bit of responsibility on him when he was in the game. And, oh yeah, he has three point range. Unfortunately, it appears we have compeition. Both my Dallas contacts confirmed that the Mavs have definite interest in bringing him back next season, and Singleton seems to like his situation there too. Don't know if it will happen, but Singleton would be an amazing, cheap add.

"The Heavens Have Smiled Upon Us"

Chris Wilcox- Wilcox parlayed a terrific contract year with the Clips into an overpaid two year stint with the SuperThunder. This summer, he's likely to return to his rightful tax bracket, and if so, the Hornets stand to benefit. At a career 9/20/14 rebounding split, Melvin Ely's twin would make Melvin himself a distant memory. Wilcox can also jump out the gym, so Chris Paul could still have an alley-oop partner when he's on the floor with the bench and Tyson's off. Wilcox's defense has been questioned repeatedly... but dude's trying to make the New Orleans Hornets' bench, not the All Defense team. I'd take him in a heartbeat, providing he agrees to slash his salary to the 2 million range.
Ike Diogu- Enter Mr. Diogu. I like Ike, and you should too. He never really got a chance with the GSW, or the IND, or the POR. Finally, he got some minutes with SAC last year, and they were predictably glorious. In the last two games, he dropped 32 on Denver, and 28 on Minnesota (oh, what's that you say about Denver resting its starters and Al Jefferson being injured? I can't really hear you, you're going to have to speak louder). He can rebound, and he draws fouls like a maniac. While he's kind of foul-prone, he doesn't turn the ball over. The kicker? His full name is Ikechukwa Somotochukwa Diogu. Pau Gasol is already recoiling in fear.
Drew Gooden- For a while there, it appeared Gooden's basketball ability had taken a back seat to him cultivating that ridiculous beard. But now all is well. Ever since he left the company of the Great Shining Internationally Renowned Supreme Basketball Talent, Gooden's been looking on the up and up. Rebounding last year? Try 10.4/22.6/16.6. 52.6% true shooting. 11.7% turnovers. 4.0 FTA/36 minutes. The one flaw is that he's lost all ability to put the ball in the bucket from the floor... but I can excuse that. Another downside: Signing the 27 year old Gooden would probably cement Jeff Bower's place as the Greatest GM in the History of Western Civilization.

So there you have it.

50 options -> 30 reasonable options -> 25 actually reasonable options -> 9 actually reasonable and good options -> 3 actually reasonable and very good options. Happy shopping.

Glen Davis and Leon Powe are Unrestricted Free Agents? Inconceivable!

Steve Perrin — Mon, 18 May 2009 20:01:52 -0000

More photos » by Charles Krupa - AP

The hero of game five is a restricted free agent, contrary to what you might have read.

Browse more photos »

In the waning moments of Game 7 between the Magic and the Celtics, when it was clear that Boston's season was over, TNT displayed the obligatory "Off-season priorities" graphic. On it, they listed both Glen Davis and Leon Powe as unrestricted free agents. This is simply not true. Both Davis and Powe are RESTRICTED free agents.

It's a common mistake, one we've made on Clips Nation regarding Steve Novak's status. As Vizzini might say, we fell victim to one of the classic blunders. "The most famous is never get involved in a land war in Asia, but only slightly less well-known is this: never go in against a Sicilian when death is on the line!" Slightly less well-known still is, never assume that second round picks are not restricted free agents. From time to time we like to get into the nitty gritty of the CBA in order to understand better what's going on, so let's look at what appears to be causing so much confusion.

The issue seems to center around second round picks, as Davis and Powe and Novak all are. This is because first round draft picks have their own set of of very, very specific rules under the CBA, and those rules tend to be better understood (mainly because those players have such high visibility). For first round draft picks, the first two years are guaranteed at a salary determined by their draft position, years three and four are team options, and the pick USUALLY can become a restricted free agent after four years in the league. So the high visibility RFA's, the ones that are most likely to sign for big money, fall into that category. Even so, the team has to make a qualifying offer (again, for a specific amount determined by their draft position) in order to secure the right of first refusal, the essence of the 'restriction' on a restricted free agent.

Many of the first rounders from the draft class of 2005 will be RFA's on July 1. The best of the best have already signed big money extensions - Chris Paul, Deron Williams, Andrew Bogut, Andrew Bynum, Danny Granger - and Portland locked up Martell Webster on the cheap. But Marvin Williams and Charlie Villanueva lead a group of intriguing if not overwhelming four year vets into RESTRICTED free agency this year.

Of course there are lots and lots of exceptions. Yaroslav Korolev was drafted in 2005, but the Clippers declined their third year option on him. Likewise, Luther Head was waived by the Rockets this season, and finished the year in Miami. He is no longer governed by his first round draft pick contract, but rather by his one year deal in Miami. And Utah did not exercise their third year option on Morris Almond, a first round pick in 2007, making him an UNrestricted free agent this summer.

Second round picks (or more to the point, everyone other than first round picks) are governed by a different set of rules - but it does not mean they are never restricted free agents. Why does TNT think they are? Well, I'm guessing it's mostly slothfulness. There are a handful of very popular web sites that most everyone, whether they are fans or bloggers or graphics guys at TNT, tend to turn to for salary and contract information: HoopsHype is the de facto standard, although ShamSports is probably a little more thorough and accurate. On HoopsHype, the first round picks are listed with their option years and even the amount of the qualifying offer. What happens is that many, many people look at the qualifying offer Ilisted in green type) and incorrectly correlate it directly to RFA's. Unfortunately, whereas it is true that all green qualifying offers on HoopsHype are Restricted Free Agents (assuming the team actually extends the offer), the converse is NOT true - not all RFA's have green qualifying offers on HoopsHype.

So take a quick look at Boston's page on the site. Look at Rajon Rondo - a first round draft pick in 2006, the team has already exercised their fourth year option on him for next season, and his QO of almost $3.8M is listed for the following season. If Boston does not extend him before summer 2010 (which they probably will), he will be an RFA at that point. Simple: Green = RFA. Now look at Davis and Powe. Davis was a second round pick in 2007, Powe a 2006 second rounder. Neither is signed for next season, and as such HoopsHype lists a zero for them. For most people, that zero has come to mean UNrestricted free agent.

Unfortunately, the wealth of information available on the web has made everyone lazy, and very few people actually understand the underlying rules (and I'm not suggesting that I'm one of them, but I do try.)

The fact is, restricted free agency is not limited to first round draft picks. Here is the relevant sentence from Larry Coon's Salary Cap FAQ (but you really should read the whole thing on RFA's):

Restricted free agency exists only on a limited basis. It is allowed following the fourth year of rookie "scale" contracts for first round draft picks.... It is also allowed for all veteran free agents who have been in the league three or fewer seasons.

(Emphasis added.)

Glen Davis, Leon Powe, Steve Novak, Paul Millsap - they all fall into that second category. They have been in the league three or fewer seasons.

As it happens, the team still has to make a qualifying offer in order to secure their right of first refusal - but given that second round picks usually sign rookie minimum contracts, the QO is invariably so small as to be insignificant. Again, from Coon's faq:

The qualifying offer for all other players [i.e. other than first round picks] must be for 125% of the player's previous salary, or the player's minimum salary plus $175,000, whichever is greater.

That puts the QO for all of these guys (Davis, Powe, Novak, Millsap, etc.) right around $1M - HoopsHype and ShamSports could list them (and probably should, I guess), but they tend not to impact the team's future cap situation significantly, so that's likely why they don't.

So, as Inigo said to Wesley, "Let me 'splain. [pause] No, there is too much. Let me sum up."

First round picks become restricted free agents after their fourth season, provided the team has exercised all of their contract options on the player and then extend a qualifying offer;
All other NBA players are restricted free agents provided they have been in the league three or fewer seasons and the team extends a qualifying offer.

There are many other things that get confusing surrounding these second round picks. One issue that often gets conflated with RFAs is the question of Bird rights. Back when Gilbert Arenas signed with Washington, the Warriors were unable to match the Wizards offer. However, that was NOT because Arenas was unrestricted - it was because the Warriors did not have full Bird right's and were therefore not allowed to go over the salary cap to retain him. (That loophole has since been closed, but the solution is incredibly complex, even by NBA CBA standards - feel free to read about it if you like.)

Here are two key things you need to remember about Bird rights:

As we learned in Schoolhouse Rock, three is the Magic number. A player qualifies as a Larry Bird free agent if they have been in the NBA at least three consecutive years without being waived or without signing as a free agent.
Bird rights are tradeable. So the Clippers have the right to go over the salary cap to sign Steve Novak, even though he has not played for LA for three seasons, because he has played under his current contract for three years and Houston traded him to LA. (By contrast, Luther Head was waived and signed with Miami as a free agent - Miami does not have Head's Bird rights.)

Because three is a 'sweet spot' here (RFA's have been in the league three or fewer seasons, Bird free agents have been under contract three or more seasons), three year vets like Novak and Powe and Millsap have a set of circumstances making them much like first round picks:

they can sign for any amount of money;
their current team can choose to match any offer (i.e. they are restricted free agents);
their current team can go over the salary cap to do so (i.e. the team holds the player's Bird rights).

Of course, this is most applicable to Millsap, as he is the only one of the three who is going to sign for more than the mid-level exception.

Glen Davis, on the other hand, being a two year veteran, is an 'early Bird' free agent - Boston can go over the cap to re-sign him, but only up to the mid-level exception. Fortunately for them, in the wake of the Arenas situation, other teams are only allowed to sign him for the mid-level, so Boston can definitely keep him if they really want to.

So there you go. A quick primer on RFA's and Bird rights. If you don't get it all, don't feel bad. Neither do the guys at TNT.

Getting back to the point of the graphic, Boston does have some difficult decisions this summer. All of their starters are already signed, the big three to truly massive contracts. They are already over the luxury tax threshold, without any significant salary coming off their books at this time. Moverover, two key reserves in Davis and Powe are restricted free agents. The fact that TNT reported them as unrestricted is sloppy, but not significant - they'll play for Boston if they can get paid. But they both made major contributions to the team while playing for the league minimum. They are clearly in line for decent pay days, which will push the team's payroll to new heights. (Of course, Powe's situation is further complicated by his ACL injury.) It's Boston, so they'll likely continue to be over the tax threshold (way over the threshold) through the end of next season when Ray Allen's deal expires. But even the Celtics are going to have to think long and hard about signing Big Baby for $5M when it's really going to cost the $10M.

On a related note, if you want a late first round pick in this draft, get on the phone with Danny Ainge. The last thing he wants right now is a guaranteed salary for a player unlikely to hlep next season.

Shutting Down Novak

Steve Perrin — Wed, 18 Mar 2009 16:51:17 -0000

Give some credit to Don Nelson and Anthony Morrow in last night's Warriors victory. After Steve Novak hit back to back threes to cut the lead from 14 to 8 less than three minutes into the fourth quarter, Nellie called an immediate time out. And although I wasn't in the huddle, it's pretty obvious exactly what he said to Morrow. He said stay on Novak. Do not leave him. Do not help anyone else. Stay on him wherever he goes. Do this, or you may not have a job tomorrow.

The amazing thing is that other coaches haven't figured this out. Steve Novak does one thing incredibly well and not much else. By putting a quick defender on him, and telling that defender to ignore the standard rules of team defense, you can completely nullify him as the Warriors did. It's not like the 6'10" Novak has the game to take the 6'5" Morrow into the post.

That leaves the Clippers essentially playing 4 on 4 on offense. Now, you could argue that it's a minor victory in an of itself to eliminate one help defender by pre-occupying him. But it also takes the Clippers out of their standard sets. More importantly, if Novak is neutralized on offense, let's face it, he's not helping a lot out there.

Watching Morrow shadowing Novak, without the ball, 35 feet from the basket, was fascinating. It gives you an appreciation for the mad genius Nelson - this time the genius coming through just a little through the madness. It's so simple - and yet has any other team done this - all season? How many times have we asked ourselves, "Why did (Travis Outlaw, Lamar Odom, fill in the blank) leave him?" It's unbelievable that these guys don't just stay home on Novak. But NBA defenses are built to hedge and help and rotate, and they seem to have some difficulty making major, player-specific deviations.

With most players, hedging makes sense because it places the defender in better help position, and also because it clogs the lane to the basket that his man might take on an off ball cut. So usually, it's a win-win - better help defense, better defense against your man. But Novak is a three point savant - looking at his shooting chart on NBA Hot Spots, he's taken 14 shots from inside of 15 feet this season. FOURTEEN! That's less than 5% of his 320 shot attempts. He's not cutting to the basket people, he's glued to the three point line - and the smart defender should be glued to him.

So give Nelson credit.

If every team starts defending him this way, then Novak and the Clippers have to adjust. Add in some back door cuts. Get him working on some post moves and post him up if they're going to try to defend him with a guard. Because if defenses are allowed to defend him this way and not pay the price, then it becomes very difficult to have him on the floor.

Clippers 107 - New Jersey 105

Steve Perrin — Mon, 16 Mar 2009 07:50:15 -0000

Final - 3.15.2009	1	2	3	4	Total
New Jersey Nets	30	24	24	27	105
Los Angeles Clippers	33	32	23	19	107

Complete Coverage >

Well that was a pretty interesting and entertaining game. There was really a lot going on there.

I don't think I can weave all the different subplots into a coherent whole, so I'll fall back on the blogger's best friend, the bullet list.

Again playing without Zach Randolph, the Clippers built a 12 point fourth quarter lead on some hot shooting, but gave it all back and fell behind by three with 12 seconds remaining. But with some help from the Nets, they scored 5 points in the last 10 seconds to win the game.
Steve Novak went through a mini-slump from the All Star break until the end of February in which he made only 12 of 44 three point attempts over 7 games. But since then, he's once again on fire. He's made 17 for 30 so far this month, including a completely ludicrous 12 for 18 in the last two games. This game belonged to him - he led the team in scoring for the first time in his career, made a career high 7 threes in the game, and hit the game winner as time expired. That's a good night.
After battling back to take the lead on some insane long range shooting, the Nets played the final seconds about as badly as a team can. With 12 seconds on the clock, a three point lead and a foul to give, they had all the cards. The first mistake was Brook Lopez giving the first foul way too early. He fouled Chris Kaman 35 feet from the basket after only two seconds had elapse. The next mistake belonged entirely to Lawrence Frank. I posted on the question of fouling with a three point lead when the Clippers were in a similar situation back in January. I concluded that I wouldn't give that foul in any situation, but I didn't know any NBA coach was frankly dumb enough to give it with 7 seconds left and the opponent still holding a timeout. By fouling with so much time left, you're basically saying "I think we can make at least as many free throws as they can." And if they don't, you've just given your opponent a chance to win, when before the best they could hope for was the tie. After Baron made two free throws, the Clippers almost got a turnover the first time New Jersey tried to inbound the ball, as Bobby Simmons used most of his 5 second count, and then the pass was knocked out of bounds (and Baron was pretty insistent it was off Keyon Dooling, which it may well have been in watching again on the DVR). When they re-ran the inbounds play, the Clippers funneled the ball to the Nets' worst free throw shooter on the floor, Jarvis Hayes, and he proceeded to miss a pair. The Clippers got the rebound, used their crucial final timeout, and had just enough time to set up Novak's heroics. Dumb, dumb, dumb by New Jersey.
Of course, the Clippers had to give the game to New Jersey before the Nets could give it back. It was a strange slow-motion collapse. After Lawler's Law kicked in at 100-89 with 5:35 to go, the Clippers continued to play reasonably well. (By the way, I know I've said this before, but when it's the Clippers who get to 100 first, it's more a rule of thumb than a law. LA rarely seems particularly intent on enforcing the law.) Unlike the game against the Cavs, the Clippers continued to get some decent shots. In fact, their first shot after getting to 100 was a wide open corner three for the hero Novak, by far the easiest shot he took all night, and it just didn't go in. On two other possessions, Al Thornton got right to the rim on good aggressive moves that looked certain to produce either a basket or a foul, but each time he was turned away (cleanly) by Brook Lopez - simply great plays by the rookie. On the other end, New Jersey's threes suddenly started falling. Five of their final six field goals were threes, most of them with a Clipper in their grill. You can make up some ground pretty quickly that way, and they did. A 16-2 run was capped by Vince Carter's 30 footer for New Jersey's first lead since the first quarter.
Carter was amazing (half man, half amazing I guess) as he so often is against the Clippers. One thing that the Clippers clearly lack right now is a long wing defender. Quinton Ross filled that role for many years, and while he was always a liability on offense, he did the grunt work against guys like Carter and there's no one on the roster to do that now. Baron Davis, Fred Jones and Al Thornton all took turns on Vince tonight, but no one really slowed him down much. And by the way, Vince made some really tough shots as well.
That's three games in the last four in which the Clippers have surrendered a double digit lead in the fourth quarter.
Back to Novak for a moment - it's interesting watching the guards look for this guy. Three different Clipper point guards found him in transition before the defense could get up on him. It's a case of knowing your personnel - Baron, Fred Jones and Mike Taylor each went out of their way to set him up as the defense was backpedaling resulting in three points. It seems silly to say in the 66th game of the season, but it actually looked like the Clippers were more comfortable with each other tonight than they have been all season.
Although Chris Kaman is still a long way from Kaman 2.0 form, he took some baby steps in this game and finished with 10 points and 8 rebounds. He made a jump hook. He made a nice step through move. He also took some other steps - he had one of the more amazing traveling violations in the history of the NBA. I think he took two steps AFTER the whistle had blown. It's not so much the field goal percentage that will be the barometer (although that's an important one); it's the turnovers. And he had 4 tonight, just as he has every night since his return to action.
Eric Gordon needs more shots. He scored 17 points on 11 shots, and 4 other Clippers got at least that many shots. He really needs to be getting the most shots on the team as far as I'm concerned.
Among the things we've been hoping for from Al Thornton are consistency and rebounding. Well, in the last five games, Al has scored 20, 19, 20, 22 and 25. And in the last 4, he's averaged more than 8 rebounds. These are some encouraging trends, though they are obviously early.

It all adds up to an exciting and much-needed win, somewhat unlikely without Zach Randolph. We thought this would be the game where Randolph and Kaman and Camby would all be relatively healthy and together. I guess we have to wait until Tuesday night in Oakland for that.

The Randolph-Novak-Gordon Set

Steve Perrin — Fri, 13 Feb 2009 19:02:43 -0000

I had intended to include something about this in my recap of the New York game, but I didn't for a couple of reasons. For one thing, I was particularly tired for some reason and had trouble writing coherently. You know when you're reading while dozing off, and you finish a sentence and realize that you have no idea what it said? Well, that's an even stranger sensation when you wrote the sentence. For another thing, it has to do with breaking down a particular play, which frankly is Kevin's domain. I figured he'd do it in his recap, and indeed he did.

But after reading his analysis (which is as always terrific), I wanted to add my two cents.

As he points out, the Clippers went to a particular set several times down the stretch, and it worked almost every time. Kevin says this was the first game they've used it, and that rings true. For one thing, given that Novak only started getting regular minutes and becoming an integral part of the offense during Zach Randolph's absence, the team has really only had this personnel configuration (with Randolph, Novak and Gordon) on the floor together for the last six games - none of them close in the end. And who would have thought that Novak would be part of the 'go to' play down the stretch of a close game?

Here's Kevin's description of the basic set - like I said, breaking down the X's and O's is definitely his thing, and pretty much no one does it better:

[4th, 1:00] The Clips set up Randolph on the right block against David Lee. They first run Eric Gordon around Randolph, trying to rub Robinson off the Clippers’ PF. Robinson runs underneath, but is able to recover and cut off the passing lane between Baron and Eric. Instead, Eric sets up at the mid-post and the Clippers now have a stack…and here comes Steve Novak trying to get free above the stack. David Lee realizes two things: [1] There’s no way his teammate, Harrington, is going to be able to stay with Novak. [2] The only way for the Knicks to prevent Novak from getting a clean open look at a 3PA is for Lee to drop off Randolph and step out on Novak. So the Knicks switch: Lee picks up Novak on the right wing, and Harrington has assumed the role of guarding Randolph in the post. It’s a very, very nice set — well-drawn, well-executed. The Clippers wanted one of two things: [1] An open shot on the right arc for either Gordon or Novak. [2] Randolph against Harrington. They get the latter. Baron feeds Randolph, who takes a left-handed dribble into the lane, and gets mauled as he flings a left-handed hook that goes through the net. Zach should be going to the line for a FTA, but there’s no whistle.

As he goes on to say, the Clippers run the play again the next time down the floor for the tie, and use the basic set on the first possession of overtime.

What I wanted to point out is that they also ran that set for the play before, Novak's three, which cut the Knick's four point lead to one - arguably the most crucial basket, since the Clippers failed to get a stop in four straight Knicks' possession. The only way to erase the four point lead was to get 3 for 2 - which they did courtesy of Novak's three and Al Harrington's T.

In all, the Clippers ran that set, by my count, on five out of six possessions (the last three of regulation and two of the first three in overtime) and they scored every time (although on one it was an offensive rebound by Zach). What's most interesting is that they scored five different ways.

Option one is the double stack screen for Gordon. This is not a new idea by any means, and is the Clippers favorite play to run for EJ. He can either curl on the screens if the defender is trailing him, or go out to the three point line if the defender is hung up. Robinson is so small and so quick, he actually defends it very well almost every time - it's tough to screen the little guy, and he recovers in a flash even if you get him. Nonetheless, Gordon is freed for an open three point basket on the third possession of overtime. It's also the same basic set that gets him a step to the baseline (when Nate goes over the top of the screens) for his crucial and-one in the final minute of OT.

Option two is the new wrinkle, frankly because Novak is such a unique perimeter threat. It's often said that some of the best plays in basketball are the oldest ones - the screen-and-roll, the give-and-go - these are things that I ran in high school, and my dad ran in high school. But a relatively new play that you see everywhere now is 'screen the screener'. Basically, the player who sets a screen in turn gets a screen set for him. The reason it works is because the defender has a job on the first screen - he has to be ready to switch, and even if he doesn't switch, he has to 'show', which is to help on the high side of the screen to take away the easiest path to the basket. But because that defender is coping with those responsiblities, he tends to get out of position for what is coming next. Novak is in the stack of screens designed to free Gordon. If Gordon doesn't get the ball, Zach screens down on Novak's man. On the crucial three pointer near the end of regulation, Harrington is distracted enough by the screen for Gordon, that he gets caught on the Randolph screen and trails him out to the arc. Truth be told, Harrington does a pretty good job defending it - Novak makes an unbelievable shot running away from the basket. Harrington is close enough to foul Novak, though there is no call. But the play worked because Novak is so bloody good.

Option three - call it screen the screener's screener. OK, not really. There is no screen for Zach. But all of the action for Gordon and Novak once again puts Randolph's defender (in this case David Lee) in a tough position. Does he switch, does he hedge, what does he do? And he's got that dilemma twice, in quick succession. As Kevin points out, he switches on the penultimate play of regulation- Novak has just drained a huge three, the NY lead stands at three, this time Harrington is completely hung up - Lee has to switch, it's the absolutely correct decision. It means that now Randolph has Harrington in the post. Zach makes a very tough shot and was definitely fouled on the play, though once again there was no call.

The final possession of regulatoin yields the easiest basket for the Clippers so far. Lee is simply caught out of position hedging to Novak. Randolph gets a deep catch and has a gimme at the rim. Truthfully, although the play yields 12 points in 5 trips, this is the only time that the Knicks defend it poorly. The other times it was really a matter of good offense trumping pretty good defense.

It's interesting to compare crunch time of this game to other Clipper games (with key personnel - no real point in comparing it to games when Zach wasn't available). In Chicago, in a game that went into double overtime, the Clippers went to Zach probably 90% of the time at the end of regulation and in the overtime. The go to set was more straightforward - an iso for Randolph. The only involvement for other players was Gordon setting a cross screen designed to help Zach get good low post position. But from there, it was an entry pass and spot up for every one else. It can be an effective set, especially if Z-Bo is on a roll. But it's more than a little predictable and boring.

By the way, if you happened to watch the Celtics beat the Mavericks last night, you saw the World Champion Celtics run an iso for Paul Pierce almost exclusively in the fourth quarter. The 'set' was no more complicated than Pierce setting a screen for Rondo. If the Mavs swtiched it, they got the ball to Pierce and had the matchup they wanted. If the Mavs didn't switch it, they got the ball to Pierce anyway. It literally didn't matter. They got the ball to Pierce at the high post EVERY DAMN TIME and it worked EVERY DAMN TIME. My point is, the Clippers aren't the only team that runs a lot of isolations.

But with a new level of confidence in Gordon's offensive game, and the undeniable threat that is Novak on the perimeter, MDsr, whom we have criticized for running isos almost exclusively, went to a set that literally involved the entire team, and has myriad options and variations. You want an iso? Go to Thornton on the weak side if the defense is hedging to the screen action. And of course Baron has the option of driving the lane as well if his man wants to overplay the passing lane.

Mike Smith said something after EJ's crucial three point play. He said "The Clippers may have found their go to scorer". I think that's a stretch at this point. Randolph will be, and should be, involved in critical possessions. But the point is that the team has some options. It's not just a matter of standing and watching Zach.

It may be an isolated incident - Camby and Kaman were out, the Knicks present some unique matchups, the presence of Jared Jeffires allowed Novak to be on the floor without being exploited on defense - but it was a welcome and interesting departure for the Clippers.

Not Quite a Blowout: Bobcats Handle the Clippers

David Arnott — Tue, 10 Feb 2009 05:03:02 -0000

On a slow night in the league, my fears of a Clipper uprising were unfounded. The Bobcats pulled away in the second half, eventually making the game look like a blowout, 94-73.

There were two primary causes of the Bobcats' run. First, Baron Davis had an abysmal game at both ends of the floor. In 34 minutes, he had 3 points on 1-7 shooting, 3 turnovers, and 4 fouls, all tempered somewhat by 3 steals and 8 assists, both team highs. However, he was thoroughly flustered and, at times, seemed to go into a lackadaisical funk. When he's on, Baron's swag knocks opponents for another loop, but that same drive and reliance on feeling the moment swings the other way, too.

Second, aside from Steve Novak, who was 3-6 from beyond the arc and scored 13 points, the Clips got absolutely nothing from their bench. Fred Jones was a non-factor, and Ricky Davis continued demonstrating that he doesn't belong in the NBA anymore.

For the Bobcats, Raymond didn't kill us, and Emeka put up yet another dominant stat line. In 39 minutes, Okafor had 19 points on 8-14 shooting, 16 rebounds, and 3 blocks. He turned it over 3 times, but that is what it is. I'll take that minor step back if it's all a part of keeping Randolph below his season averages.

===

-- Radmanovic looked pretty comfortable within Larry Brown's scheme. As expected, he won't pass like Diaw, but he'll serve the same scoring function, only off the bench, and with a somewhat higher percentage of threes attempted.

-- Cartier Martin was miscast as a three when the Bobcats initially ran him out there. He's still a little jumpy and awkward trying to play off the ball, but when the ball's in his hands and he can make his own shot, he displays a much more natural air about him. Unfortunately, he's just not talented enough to make the offense work by himself if it turns out he doesn't really want to play within a defined system and only wants to be the end point of the offense. Think Rashad McCants.

-- Sean May got a nice hand when he entered the game. I'll be polite and say he just doesn't have his basketball legs, yet.

-- I didn't realize just how small Eric Gordon is. His success will depend on his ability to guard twos significantly bigger than he is, or his ability to handle the ball and create offense for his teammates as the point, or whether his teams choose to sign big point guards to play alongside him and guard most twos.

YES!

Tom Martin — Fri, 06 Feb 2009 03:15:07 -0000

A few things:

This deal makes no sense.
This deal makes incredible sense.
Utah gets screwed...twice.
Morris Almond comes home.
Novak is Brought Back!

Think you can create a better deal for Steve Novak? Do you care at all? Post links to your results in the comments section.

Jamison's Revenge: Wizards Game 47 Blog vs. LA Clippers

Truth About It — Sun, 01 Feb 2009 20:17:11 -0000

via flickr/Keith Allison

Q1

1st Clippers possession - It strikes me as odd how little guys block out in the NBA......it's almost an after-thought. Well, at least for the Wizards. In this instance, Brian Skinner remained untouched as Jamison and McGuire kind of stood around, looking at the rim...and Skinner ended up with an easy offensive board tip in.

Mike James hits his first shot, a three -- sad to say, this is a good thing. 4-3 LA.

9:08: James gets called for a carry.....needless to say, the movement on offense for the Wiz is very casual.

I'm an NBA first. I have some friends, and it's completely understandable, who favor the college game over the pro -- the college players seem to play like every possession counts. And I'm sure that some good NBA teams, like the Spurs, occasionally take possessions off. But, for the most part, they run a tight, professional ship.

To my point: the uninspired play of the Wizards just might make me watch more college ball to better balance out my entire basketball experience. The long and short of it is that the Wizards really, really suck......and it's easy to tell just from watching a single possession.

6:30: But, LA sucks too....they keep turning the ball over (5 so far, 4 in the last two minutes), so the Wiz have gone on an 8-0 run in 1:30. 11-8 Wiz.

4:00: Butler just picked up a nice assist on a pick and roll with D-Song, and now he sees an open lane and takes advantage. He's looking composed on the offensive end......maybe he's resigned to the season's fate, calmed down, and is just playing his game. 17-11 Wizards.

Two straight three's from Steve Novak (uh Jamison?) - 19-17 Wiz.

1:44: D-Song miss layup.....D-Song snatch ball away.....D-Song make layup.....D-Song no quit.

Wha-Wha-What? Did I just catch a glimpse of Andray Blatche in a three-piece suit?

Baron Davis to Javaris Crittenton: "When you reach, I teach." 24-22 Wiz.

J-Critt bumbles the last possession...c'mon kiddo. The Wiz are kinda-sorta looking halfway decent against another crappy team. 26-22 after 1.

Q2

Gordon gets a layup blocked by McGee, but somehow gets the ball back TWICE, ending in a lay-in. 26-24 Wiz.

11:00: McGee napping....leaves his assignment, Gordon, open for three. Buckets. 27-26 Clips.

9:10: JaVale misses a one-hand dunk attempt.....two-hands would have been nice.

Checking in.....nothing spectacular going on here.

Brian Skinner's chin pubes annoy me. They're dyed blond....some high school B.S. if you ask me.

Clippers keep turning it over.....they look like the Wizards of the West. 38-35 Wiz, 6:24 left.

6:08: DeShawn Stevenson missed trey....Caron Butler really wanted that one to go in....stood up on the bench while it was in the air and everything.

Oh silliness.....the Wiz only have four players on the court during a Camby free-thow attempt. Get up Nick Young, you're still in the game fella. (cue the Debbie Downer....wamp-wah....sound).....maybe Nick was over there trying to get a candy bar.

1:21: Hey, Nick Young is doing things.....like a three-point bomb.

Nick again, baseline jumper, the next time down the court......do your thing kiddo. 11 points for Young. 53-45 Wiz.

Back to reality....Nick tries to force a drive and bumbles the ball out of bounds.

Back to awesomeness...Wizard run, a little sloppy....but Nick Young gets it for a sweet baseline slam.

And Mike James for a three-ball bucket at the buzzer! (after a made Clipper shot with 1.2 seconds left)

Look at us go! The Wizards are marginally winning for the time being. Go team go! 58-47 at the half.

Staty Stat:

Nick Young - 13 points in the last 7 minutes.
Thank you for those 15 turnovers Clippers (Wiz only had 6)
Caron Butler has 7 assists
14-6 on fast-break points for DC

Q3

Uh oh....offense breaking down early, leading to forced end of the shot clock jumpers and turnovers from Tuff Juice.

9:04: Wiz still lead, 63-54, but the early turnovers are not helping the cause. Timeout Wiz.

8:45: Jamison, still ballin', hits a trey ball. 8 points so far in the 3rd, 20 for the game. 66-54 Wiz.

Something I like to see: Juan Dixon is the first player on the bench.....and he's the only Wizard standing up an applauding the efforts of his teammates.

Good lord, the Clips continue to turn the ball over at a high rate...18 so far.

7:35: On the other hand, Eric Gordon is balling as well. McGuire goes behind a screen on the shooter and Gordon pops a three. 8 points in the 3rd for him, 18 total. 66-57 Wizards.

6:04: Well, Mike James' shot has officially made an appearance. Three ball makes it 69-59 DC.

3:48: JaVale McGee hustling put back (after an initial bad attempt) -- 8 points, 4 boards for the Choppa.

It would be nice if the Wiz stopped ignoring Steve Novak.....all he does is shoot and make threes. 73-67 DC.

2:18: I'm going to start calling JaVale McGee "fish" because he is always biting on that pump fake bait. Eric Gordon gets fouled shooting a three, makes all. 21 points for EG.....75-69 Wiz.

0:00: And what do you know....DeShawn Stevenson finally makes his first shot since coming back from injury.....a long two at the buzzer. (and if you must know, he did the 'can't feel my face' move......way to go DeShawn, way to go)

Despite 21 turnovers for LA, the Wiz are letting him hang around, thanks to 13 points in the 3rd from Erick Gordon. Wiz up 81-75 after three.

Q4

9:10: Butler sneaky steal after a Wiz miss....and a slam dead in the pubic hair facial of Brian Skinner. 11-0 Wizards run.....88-75.

Gotta love JaVale McGee's activity on the boards. In 16 minutes, he has 13 points (6-11 FGs) and 8 boards.

7:00: However, the Wiz are kinda playing like the game is in hand.....JaVale just took a shot "just because" 90-82 Wiz.

Ugh.....I thought he was trying to play more under control earlier, but Caron Butler just committed his 7th turnover of the game.

5:02: Crittenton break down dribble.....JaVale McGee dunk....95-82 Wiz -- FINISH THIS!

4:41: Christ Jamison! Novak is 4-4 on threes....and it seems to be you every time. 95-85 Wiz.

Turnover #25 for the Clippers....ESPN probably has their trigger finger on the Bennie Hill music.

1:37: Big block McGee to keep the score at 100-89.

1:18: But Novak hits another trey....8 point game.

The game takes forever to end, but the Wiz close it out....good stuff.

Wizards won because of sharing the ball (22 assists), Clipper turnovers (24 total), and offensive boards (18 of 'em)...oh yea, and 25 points and 12 rebounds from Antawn Jamison.

Holler.