SB Nation - Von Wafer

Von Wafer Headed to the Memphis Grizzlies?

Scott Schroeder — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 20:55:21 -0000

More photos » by Pat Sullivan - AP

Von Wafer is probably excited to be coming back to America. Probably not celebrating by dressing up in his Rockets jersey and screaming, however.

Browse more photos »

The second call-up of the season looks like it'll be going to Von Wafer. However, since Wafer's currently playing for Olympiakos in Greece, this one won't be Gatorade sponsored.

Jorge Sierra of HoopsHype has the (potential) story:

Former Rockets guard Wafer is close to leaving Olympiakos and returning to the NBA with the Memphis Grizzlies, one source told HoopsHype.com. Wafer's European agents are working today to rescind his contract with the Greek powerhouse. The 6-foot-5 guard could soon afterwards join the Grizzlies for the rest of the season, the source said.

Wafer's departure is apparently of mutual agreement. Wafer was due to make $2 million with Olympiakos this year but the team's coach, Greek legend Panagiotis Giannakis, wasn't playing him for the last few games. Management didn't want to have that type of investment sitting on the bench, according to the source, so both sides decided to come to a quick resolution.

Wafer has played in 50 D-League games over three seasons, eight on assignment by the Lakers to the Fort Worth Flyers and the remaining with the Colorado 14ers. With the 14ers, Wafer averaged 21 points, earning call-ups to both the Los Angeles Clippers and Denver Nuggets. Since his D-League years, Wafer's went on to play in 92 NBA games with the Nuggets, Blazers and Rockets.

Wait, Scott, why does this move matter to a D-League blog? Wafer hasn't played in the D-League since 2007!

If the overseas contracts are becoming easy enough to get out of, it seems to make sense that if a player has established himself on the NBA radar (as Wafer obviously has), it's not a bad idea to grab one of those big European contracts and hope the NBA comes calling, rather than grinding it out around the D-League.

In Greece, Wafer scored 10 points just once in his six games, obviously showing that scouts care more about what they know a player can do rather than what he's currently doing (or the Grizzlies were really high on a player that was benched his last few games, which would be, well, odd). I'd venure to say that both Desmon Farmer and Carlos Powell could have been just as well off going this route. Both shown what they can do in the D-League (and have had short sniffs of the big leagues, proving their worth), and while they don't have the name value of Wafer, I'm fairly certain NBA scouts didn't need to see them average 20+ points in the D-League to know what each is capable of doing.

According to the comments on HoopsHype's story, Wafer's already made $3 million, with $2 million more remaining. Had he come to the D-League, he wouldn't make anything close to that amount and would still have been the first call-up candidate at his position, regardless of his numbers.

If this becomes some sort of trend (and granted, it probably won't), the D-League will end up relying on the young guns like Alonzo Gee, Sundiata Gaines and Curtis Jerrell instead of proven baller's like Farmer, Powell, Mike Harris and Rod Benson.

PtR Preseason QuickCap: Olympiacos is Not an NBA Team

Tim C. — Sat, 10 Oct 2009 03:46:02 -0000

That weaksauce? Get it outta here.

OK, let's make this live up to the whole "quick" thing. All I have to go by is a box score, and several PtR members were at this game, so one or more of them should be able to drop a full recap on us.

Tonight the Spurs squared off against Olympiacos B.C., and beat them in convincing fashion(did you expect anything less?), 107-89. One look at the box score will tell you a few things:

The Leaders

George Hill is awesome. Cubits had 17 points, 3 board, 2 assists and shot 5-8 from the field in his 22 minutes of play. Rock on, Cubits, rock on.
Josh Childress is still a really good player. If he ever decides to come back to the states, the Spurs would be wise to provide a home for him.

The Rest

Tim Duncan(10 points, 5 boards, 3 assists) and Tony Parker(12 points, 3 assists) had a better +/- score than anyone else who played in this game. Big surprise, I know.
Manu Ginobili was pretty lackluster, but still chipped in a team-high 5 assists. It's OK Manu, you're still the Manuest, or something like that.
The Spurs got 5 blocked shots tonight: 2 from Timmeh, 2 from Malik Hairston(who was quietly effective again), and 1 from Theo Ratliff.
Richard Jefferson was again not very involved in the offense(going by the boxscore), but managed to get 2 steals on the defensive end to go with his 4 points on 2-2 shooting.
Roger Mason shot 4-5, including 2-3 from long range, for 10 points. It's good to see Roger back in midseason form.
Ian Mahinmi had a redemption game of sorts, coming away with 7 points, 2 rebounds and zero fouls, even though the game was already decided by then.
DeJuan Blair must have switched brains with Ian, as he had 4 fouls to go with the 9 points(mostly on FT's), 2 boards, and 2 steals he picked up.
Every player on the Spurs camp roster played tonight, and all but Marcus Williams and Dwayne Jones scored.
On the Olympiacos side, Von Wafer and Sofoklis Schortsanitis(leading scorer for the Greeks tonight) scored in double figures, though Schortsanitis got in foul trouble.
Linas Kleiza sucked. I wonder if this is because Keith Bogans started and SHUT. HIM. DOWN. Somebody who was at the game might be able to elaborate on this a bit more.
Ioannis Bourousis, of rumored-to-be-offered-a-deal-with-the-Spurs fame, had a less than stellar outing, but still managed to get 7 points, 4 board, and stole the ball from Manu at least once.

Ok, I lied about only going by the boxscore - there's also some video highlights. And photos.

I have no idea why there are no second half highlights as of this writing, which sucks.

all images below via yahoo

Oh man, I hope I don't get me the Bourousis from this.

Hey Josh, will you be my backup next year? OK, fine, I'll back YOU up instead... just come to SA.

Didn't I just beat you last month?

So, the Spurs won a game they were supposed to win, got good performances from most of the guys we're concerned about, and nobody got hurt. Seems like a good outing to me. Next up, the Spurs play in Miami on Sunday night.

The Dream Shake's 2009-2010 Houston Rockets Preview

Tom Martin — Wed, 07 Oct 2009 05:00:25 -0000

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Last year's record: 53-29
Playoffs: Beat Portland 4-2. Lost to Los Angeles Lakers (epically, at that) 4-3.
Key losses: Yao Ming (injury), Ron Artest, Von Wafer, Brent Barry, James White
Key additions: Trevor Ariza, David Andersen, Jermaine Taylor, Chase Budinger, Pops Mensah-Bonsu

From Lee Grammier:

1. What significant moves were made during the offseason?

Yao Ming's injury status in the offseason was not a "move" made by the Rockets but it clearly qualifies as season altering information. The original prognosis was that he'd be out until training camp, with the revised prognosis being that he will be out for the entire season. In the long run this could turn out to be best for Yao's health. He has a signed NBA contract for his services that the Chinese National government agreed to and based on some of their decision making he has rarely been able to fulfill that contract. In no way do I begrudge Yao for wanting to play in the Olympics for his country, but the other games simply have to stop.

The Trevor Ariza signing was the most significant roster move of the off-season. While I've been on record saying that Trevor Ariza wasn't someone I was interested in, that was prior to the Rockets gaining a second mid level exception. Daryl Morey has not been wrong a single time as general manager of the Houston Rockets, so while this may not be signing Joe Johnson, it was a heck of a pickup. Swapping Artest for Ariza made much more sense given the season the Rockets are going to have to endure, the generally low price tag and Ariza's age.

2. What are the team's biggest strengths?

From a position perspective the team's biggest strength is the power forward slot. Few, if any teams in the NBA can boast a 3 deep rotation of starter quality players at any position. The Rockets have Luis Scola, Carl Landry and Chuck Hayes. Each brings something different to the table with Scola being the most complete player. He is likely to be the Rockets biggest star this season. My prediction is that he will earn a spot on the All Star team this year, but won't actually get in. I also predict that he will be listed as the number one snub by every respectable writer around. If Carl Landry can continue to add some shooting touch from beyond 12 feet he will take a huge step forward in his career. At 26 years old, this is the season where he will define who he is as a player.

From a team perspective defense will keep the Rockets in games that their scoring will say they have no business being in. The carryover from the JVG years that has been the Rockets calling card could be as good as it's ever been this year. While there is no Yao Ming holding down the middle, the rest of the defense should be even better making it a wash. Every player on the team can play defense (contrary to popular belief, Scola is a solid defender) and just about everyone has speed, strength and athleticism. The key question on defense is how with David Andersen plays his part.

3. What are the team's biggest weaknesses?

The Rockets weakest position going into the season is clearly center. Losing the second best center in the league (and the best if health isn't factored in) will do that to a team. Given the Rockets inability to sign a viable back-up in the last two seasons not named Dikembe Mutombo, this was inevitable. Not, mind you, that I blame Daryl Morey, there simply are not many centers out there, and when you have the best, you just have to hope he can stay on the court. The Rockets have not been very lucky in that department. David Andersen and Chuck Hayes will likely vie for the starting position with Landry and Scola getting spot minutes and Joey Dorsey getting left-overs. Regardless, Hayes will play, but not always at center. If Andersen can put something together the Rockets can make the playoffs. Luckily for the Rockets and us as fans, the NBA simply does not have a lot of viable, true centers, so if you are going to have either a weakness or a strength, center is a great place for it.

As a team, Houston is going to struggle scoring. Morey drafted two players explicitly because of their ability to score in Chase Budinger and Jermaine Taylor. They believe Trevor Ariza can step it up, though I am more than a little skeptical about that scenario. The sooner Tracy McGrady comes back from injury, the better. Simply put, the Rockets are desperate for scoring.

In the meantime, Luis Scola and Aaron Brooks will most likely lead the team in scoring. Scola will average 18-20 points a game this season - it's a stone cold lock. He's extremely capable on the offensive end and needs to make sure he doesn't gamble as much on the defensive end. Brooks, like so many other Rockets, has to step his game up as he did at times in the playoffs last year. His size makes him somewhat of a liability on the defensive end, so he needs to use his speed to play the passing lane and create fast break points. The Rockets biggest hope for scoring is the same that will allow them to continue to be great on the defensive end; speed and athleticism. This team will run the fast break like they are the early 90s UNLV Runnin' Rebels. Defense will have to lead to offense - it's as simple as that.

4. What are the goals for this team? What will make this a successful season?

The goals for this team are very straightforward: Develop the young players, play hard every single night, and to do whatever it takes to make the playoffs. The team is not bad en ough to do any worse than the back of the lottery, so with the added revenue of a playoff team, it is a no brainer to take a shot at the playoffs. Night in and night out they will play hard, focused defense. If at any point in the season they are not hustling they will get run off the court. There is not enough scoring on this team to play anything but all out, all the time.

There are two ways to look at the Rockets series versus the Lakers in last year's playoffs:

1. The Rockets are a very good team and are capable of beating anyone on a given night, even without Yao.

2. The Rockets got lucky playing against a lackadaisical Lakers team.

Neither of them is right in full. It was really a combination of the two.

The Rockets are a very well put together team, thanks to Daryl Morey. Not one player, on down to the last guy on the bench, is a quitter. They all work hard during the game, in practice and in the weight room. Every player has at least one extreme strength and, with the exception of Chuck Hayes' offensive game, is capable of every facet of NBA level basketball. And that's not a knock on Hayes, as his defensive skills more than make up for his lack of offense. For anyone thinking this team is a 50 game winner as it stands today, I just don't have that leap of faith ability in me. They will be a good team and no one will want a game against them at any point in time this season. However, they will struggle to score and it will be very ugly at times when they do win. Typically going into a season like this most would think there wasn't a lot to look forward to, but with the Rockets that's not the case. Every game should have someone new step up - that's the great thing about having a true 12 man team.

Three underrated players/stories on this team

1. Luis Scola. He's a one improved season away from becoming one of the top power forwards in this league. It's not just about the box score with Luis - he hustles more than any player I've ever seen.

2. Rick Adelman. It's no accident that our offense often looks smoother without our stars. While it may not work as well in the late game situations, the Rockets always keep themselves in games when undermanned. This is in large part due to Adelman's ability to adapt.

3. Trevor Ariza is an upgrade over Ron Artest...for this team. Yes, we lose a terrific defender in Ron-Ron, but as far as that category goes, Ariza is not too much of a downgrade, and most importantly, his usage rates are far lower. I don't know about you, but I got tired of seeing Artest chunk up horrible shots in the playoffs and waste possessions. The Rockets should be much more efficient with Ariza in the lineup.

Predicted Record: 41-41. It could be lower, but in all honesty, could be higher as well. A good chunk of it depends on Mr. McGrady.

Tom's individual player previews after the jump...

Individual Player Links from 2008-09

From Tom Martin:

Tracy McGrady - SG #3

Strengths: It's obvious: Tracy McGrady is one hell of a basketball player when healthy. While he has lost speed and somewhat regressed athletically over the last few years, he can still drive to the rim effectively, can hit the open jumper (as difficult as he makes it look), and has a knack for hitting clutch shots, assuming he's marginally open. Tracy's most undervalued quality is his ability to pass; when he decides to play unselfishly, he can make looks that few others can. It's always been unclear as to what kind of leader Tracy is. His teammates insist that they like him, and yet, you can sense a lack of team chemistry whenever McGrady struggles. But make no mistake: a healthy McGrady is absolutely an asset.

Weaknesses: He's a nutcase and of little worth when he tries to play through nagging injuries. We saw how it affected the Rockets last year in embarrassing losses to Milwaukee, Philadelphia and Toronto, among others. Tracy would skip the second game of each back to back, which completely threw everyone out of sync. McGrady finally elected to have surgery, and whaddayaknow - we went on a second half tear to make the playoffs quite easily. The sad part is that it's not Tracy's fault that he's constantly injured. He's been in the league for a long time now, and his body has taken a beating. His athleticism has decreased over time, and his presence on the court, at least whenever he's fighting through another injury, has proved to be a handicap.

What to expect in 2009-10: A possible return to form, or something close to it. Reports out of McGrady's rehab camp have been startlingly good. Not to say that we all thought T-Mac was finished, but apparently, his progress has been revolutionary. Nick Freidell of ESPN caught up with Tim Grover and David Reavy, who have been working with Tracy in Chicago. Needless to say, this is some excellent news:

"His whole body was imbalanced from basically his shoulder blades down to his feet," Reavy says. "He was developing a lot of back problems ... He was developing strength in an imbalanced fashion. And what I see in Tracy, in general, he had no core strength, he couldn't hold a plank."

So Reavy and Grover devised a rehab plan that would help bring it all back -- the work is already paying dividends.

"[Tracy] took a hard fall seven years ago in 2002 and he said he was never able to dunk off his left leg [since]. We got him dunking off his left leg four and a half months post micro-fracture, which is basically unheard of," Reavy says. "The results that we get here are basically unprecedented because we take the force off the injured area, we make the body absorb the force equally, so that it can heal properly and faster without the loading that it's constantly getting before."

Anyone else excited? Some media folks have been whispering that McGrady could be back in game-shape by the start of the season. While that would be great, the team doesn't want him to rush it; he won't be playing until the end of November.

Luis Scola - PF #4

Strengths: The Argentinian Slayer caught the public's eye last year with his consistently solid play, earning his hilarious, yet fitting nickname from Superman himself, Dwight Howard. In just a single season, Scola transformed from a hustle/layup machine to an imposing scorer and team MVP. His defense also improved, as evidenced by his fantastic performance against LaMarcus Aldridge in the playoff series against Portland. Scola has developed a mini-arsenal of confusing post moves and bank shots that make you scratch your head for a while. Then you notice how effective they are, and in turn become awed by the Slayer's greatness. He had an extremely productive showing at the FIBA championships for Argentina this summer, leading many to suspect that 2009-10 could be a career-best year for Luis.

Weaknesses: Scola is going to have to adjust to playing without Yao Ming in the lineup. He's going to see more double teams in the post, and when he gets beat on defense, he won't have The Great Wall to protect him. Yes, Scola has had a great offseason and is looking improve his statistics this year, but it may be difficult with all of the attention that he is going to receive from opposing defenses.

What to expect in 2009-10: Something near 18/10. Perhaps even 20/10. If the Rockets manage to shock everyone and remain in the playoff hunt, Scola's name will become even more respected. It would be well-deserved.

Trevor Ariza - G/F #1

Strengths: Air Ariza can fly like few others can. If he's got a path to the rim, look out, because his feet may clip you in the face. Not only can Trevor dunk, but he's got a nifty three-point shot too. He should thrive in the loose, up-tempo offense that the Rockets will run without Yao Ming. His defense is stellar as well, thus making the loss of Ron Artest much more bearable. And by the way, The Dream Shake is currently open to any suggestions for possible nicknames of the new Ariza/Battier defensive duo. It's not going to have the star-power that "White Pills" had, but it should be formidable nonetheless. As far as I know, Ariza's old nickname was "Cobra." I like it. Somebody make it work.

Weaknesses: Can he create his own scoring? Can he be a legitimate threat offensively without a star like Kobe Bryant commanding double-teams? Can he continue to improve like he has in past years? I'm...Ron...Burgundy?

What to expect in 2009: An increase in his offensive statistics, but only because of his surroundings. Ariza is a great fit in Houston, but he's not the explosive wing scorer that the Rockets have been lacking with Tracy McGrady's absence. Fortunately, with an offensive mastermind in Rick Adelman running the show, he shouldn't have to. What should excite Houstonians most about Ariza is that he turned down the chance to play third or fourth fiddle to LeBron in Cleveland in order to make a greater impact on a team. He's a proven winner, but in signing with the Rockets, Ariza challenged himself to become a team leader, as opposed to being just another swingman. That kind of motivation makes me giddy.

Shane Battier - G/F #31

Strengths: A vocal leader, smart defender, and effective three-point shooter, Shane gets it done on a nightly basis without making much of a scene. Ball Don't Lie's Kelly Dwyer summed up Shane's defense nicely when he named him the second best defender of the past decade:

If you watch this guy, on any given possession, you'll understand. Just take your eye off the ball and watch Battier work - the guy acts as if he's in his own reality show, as if the cameras were on him for the entire 24-second turn, even if his man never gets the ball, while appearing deathly allergic to letting people down. Battier just does everything right. It may not mean he'll get the rebound, block or steal - and his guy might still nail the shot - but I've never seen someone pitch as many perfect games defensively.

Battier causes the game's most talented players to falter. His talent does not lie in his physicality, quickness, or quick hands, but instead in his ability to force bad shots. And they aren't just guesses - they are statistically proven to be bad shots. Shane is also a man's man, a true professional. When the team is down, he doesn't panic, at least not to the public. Unlike our old nemesis Rafer Alston.

Unfortunately, Michael Lewis had to go and expose the Battman to the world, so he's no longer our little secret. But he's still really, really, ridiculously good at what he does.

Weaknesses: While his defense is always appreciated, Shane sometimes disappears offensively. It would be nice to see some better offensive production from someone who is on the floor for 35 minutes per game.

What to expect in 2009-10: A return to effective three point shooting. If it wasn't emphasized before, it will be now; Shane has got to make his threes. He did just that over the second half of last season, shooting 40% after opening the year around 36%. In a season in which the Rockets are expected to be shooting even more three pointers than in years past, Shane will be counted on to make his. It's a role that is really his primary purpose on offense, so there's no reason he shouldn't thrive.

Aaron Brooks - PG #0

Strengths: Brooks shocks you with his ability to drive, especially given how midget-ish he is. He's practically addicted to the paint, which in turn makes his three-point shot all the more lethal. If defenders start respecting his outside stroke, Brooks will have no problem throwing up a shot fake en route to becoming a dribble-driving Pinball Wizard.

While Aaron doesn't have a huge assist numbers, he is a reasonably good passer. This bodes well for newly acquired David Andersen, who will be working the pick-and-roll with Brooks whenever possible. Whether it gives Brooks more space to drive, or the Aussie more space to shoot, it's one hell of a pick and pop combination. Aaron's also quite the underrated defender. He shut down Chauncey Billups and Chris Paul last season, holding them well below their averages. And to top it all off, Brooks is able to run that funky in-bounds alley-oop play. It's an automatic 2 points in less than a second.

Weaknesses: Aaron often has trouble finishing against taller defenders. He'll work his magic every once in a while and make a crazy bank shot, but more often than not, he'll have his shot swatted away. This means that Brooks must work on improving his paint vision. Once on the drive, he'll need to be looking for open options either in the corner or on the opposite block.

Brooks also has yet to be a consistent scorer. Some outings will yield 20-30 points, and others will result in single digits. This was especially apparent in the playoffs. Brooks averaged 26.3 points per game in 3 wins against the Lakers, and averaged 11.8 points per game in four losses. Not only does Brooks' production help his own cause, but it plays a significant role in deciding the outcome of the game.

What to expect in 2009-10: Increased scoring production, which will likely lead to a higher turnover rate as well. The presumed other point guard to sport the number zero may have a better 2009-10 than the original Agent himself. In considering Brooks' potential outburst in 2009-10, I can't help but think back to that scene in Spiderman when Uncle Ben tells Peter Parker that, "With great power comes great responsibility." It's the same deal for our lovable Midget.

An explosive playoff campaign put Brooks into the national spotlight, and assured him the starting point guard spot entering this season. Now, with no T-Mac or Yao for presumably the first half of the season, Brooks will be our perimeter threat. Not Trevor Ariza. Not Shane Battier. Brooks is going to have to step up and prove that he can carry the bulk of the scoring. If not, he'll have to show that he can distribute the ball to everyone else instead. My money is on the first option.

Kyle Lowry - PG #7

Strengths: The Bulldog is your prototypical Daryl Morey point guard. Lowry is efficient, loves to get to the free throw line, and can draw a foul at will. He's also a tenacious defender who can body up the bigger point guards that often cause trouble for Aaron Brooks. His finishing ability around the rim, while not automatic, is solid, thus turning many of those fouls into three point plays. While he doesn't shoot the ball particularly well, Lowry still managed to put up a 47.5 FG% last year; in other words, he limits his shot attempts to layups or wide-open looks. If the Rockets intend to run more in 2009-10, like they say they do, Lowry will be one of the biggest beneficiaries.

Weaknesses: Yeah, Lowry knows how to limit his shot selection, but it would be nice if he could extend his range beyond the three-point line, where he has struggled mightily. Against the Los Angeles Lakers in last year's playoffs, Rick Adelman chose to leave Lowry in with Aaron Brooks and Shane Battier. When Brooks or Battier would drive to Lowry's side of the court, the defense would instantly collapse, knowing that Kyle was not a threat to catch and shoot from deep. Our offense sputtered during these periods, since the three point shot was, quite frankly, our only hope against the healthy Lakers at times. Lowry also has a knack for overloading and getting out of control. It's nice to see him draw fouls, but sometimes it's better to work the ball around the perimeter, rather than to drive like there's no tomorrow...again and again and again.

What to expect in 2009-10: Increased assists per game. Now that Lowry has had a full off-season to work with Coach Adelman, he should become more comfortable and assertive on the offensive end. Don't be too quick to confuse "assertive" with "drive-every-single-play-and-try-to-get-fouled." That's not what Adelman wants.

Rather than merely moving the ball to Ron Artest or Von Wafer, Lowry will have a chance to drive and dish in the half court and on the break, thus creating more kick-out assist opportunities, a staple of an Adelman team when in even flow. The Bulldog may not make a name for himself just yet, but he and Brooks should be one of the more competent 1-2 backcourt punches in the entire league.

Carl Landry - PF #14

Strengths: Cuddly Carl becomes a monster of a man upon entering games. His tenacity around the rim, as well as his hunger for lose balls has helped him build up a reputation of being "a guy you want to have on your team." Landry has been able to put up excellent per-minute statistics, and his ability to dunk over, around, and through defenders is well-documented. He's developed a reliable jump shot, and for the most part, he is incredibly consistent. Most impressively, Carl has never complained about his role as a bench player. Though he has been accepting of his place on the team, he'd better not get too comfortable as a mere seventh option. Not with Yao Ming on the sidelines.

Weaknesses: Up to this point in his short career, Carl has been the under-appreciated fan favorite who loves to hustle and get scrappy points. While that's fantastic and all, it's time for Carl becomes a more polished scorer. The most encouraging sign we've seen so far is his relatively new jump shot; as long as he keeps knocking those babies down, he'll be helping himself out immensely. It should draw defenders out towards him more, thus allowing him to shot fake and drive to the rim.

But is Carl consistent on the block? We don't know yet. It remains to be seen if we can toss him the ball, give him space to work, and expect production. He, like in all other areas of his game, sweats beads of potential as a low-post scorer, potential that won't be realized until he consistently performs at a high level.

What to expect in 2009-10: Increased minutes, hopefully increased statistics. There is not a shred of fairness in raising the expectations of Landry. It's nit-picky to demand improvement from a virtually unknown second-round pick who has not only struggled to find significant minutes when he wholeheartedly deserved them, but has also had to deal with the physical and mental effects of a gunshot wound stemming from an early morning incident last season. You'd think a Jazz fan would feel bad for him (well, maybe not). Despite all this, the bar has been raised for 2009-10.

It's Landry's own fault that his leash is getting shorter. If he had not been so impressive during his first two NBA seasons, we would not be having this discussion. But whenever Carl sees action, he makes an impression. Rarely will you find such a reliable big man with youth, explosiveness, and a reasonable price tag. Unfortunately, we never get to see Landry on the floor for more than five or ten minutes at a time. That should change very, very soon.

It's a case of cause and effect. Cause? Yao Ming is out for the year. Effect? Chaos ensues at the center position. While it would be nice for David Andersen to be the de facto starter, we haven't seen him against NBA competition yet, and word on the street is that he doesn't play much defense. This should mean increased minutes for both Landry and Chuck Hayes.

On top of playing an undersized center, Landry will still be called upon to spell Luis Scola at the power forward position. While Landry won't be starting, his minutes should shoot up one way or another. And let's face it: with the Rockets looking for scorers this season, Landry should be comfortably above the Chuckwagon on the depth chart.

The only major question is whether higher usage will translate to lower efficiency. Landry's PER has been among the highest in the NBA over the last two seasons, but if he suddenly sees 25 minutes per game, will he lose that efficiency? I don't think the drop off will be drastic by any means.

Chuck Hayes - PF #44

Strengths: The Chuckwagon is a wall of a defender, and it's really the only reason that he has a contract. Because of this, Hayes puts all of his practice and dedication into his defense. It's what drives him, and it's the kind of mindset that a team welcomes with open arms.

Weaknesses: All elements of offense, aside from reverse layups. I've seen the man make ten straight threes in warmups, but for some reason, his offensive brilliance does not translate well to game speed. Yet, somehow, Chuck will always end up with the ball with three seconds left on the shot clock. It shocks him as much as it shocks you and me. And we won't mention those free throws.

What to expect in 2009-10: More of the same. I can't think of anything Chuck will do differently. Maybe he'll try out one of those three pointers. Hopefully not.

David Andersen - C #13 (Rookie)

Strengths/Weaknesses: I have yet to see Big Dave play basketball, so I'll leave it to Gersson Rosas, who interviewed with Adam Wexler of Sports Radio 610 back when Andersen's rights were acquired.

"Longtime target....one of most accomplished Aussies...impressive background...won championships in Spain and Italy...wins everywhere...special talent...skilled 7 footer, can shoot, moves well, good face up game, good fit for Adelman's offense...could have been a good compliment to Yao, but now can feature him...offenisvely, no question it will be a strong translation...defensively: size, which helps, and can play in our scheme...hasn't been involved in the NBA for a long time becausehe was well-paid in Europe and really had no reason to leave...leaving money on the table to play in the NBA...time was right for him contractually and career-wise...mirrors Pau Gasol's versatily on the high post, in terms of shooting and dribbling...skilled passer on the high post...can play pick-and-pop and space the floor as a 7 footer...a little bit like Bargnani, but not quite as athletic...similar in the type of game and style...not great defensively, but Chuck's presence will help that...smart player...good team defender...physicality is an issue...studied him for past 3-4 years...big credit to Les Alexander for providing resources for the upcoming season..."

In case you didn't feel like reading that, here's my summation. Big Dave...

Can shoot well from anywhere.
Can pass and move, something Rick Adelman values in his big men.
Is a smart player and is a winner.
Is relatively cheap.
Can play team defense and help effectively.

And his cons are that he...

Isn't very physical.
Will struggle with individual post defense.
Doesn't rebound well.
Has yet to face proven NBA competition.

What to expect in 2009-10: Smooth transition to offense, struggles on defense. Just based off of Rosas' analysis, Andersen will have a tough time adjusting to the physicality of the NBA. However, the good news for the Rockets is that Chuck Hayes and Carl Landry are available to step in for defensive purposes in case Andersen falters. Eventually, it would be nice if Andersen could stay on the floor and at least become a competent defender. And even if Big Dave doesn't have a standout year, he'll always have next year, where his expectations will be lowered upon becoming Yao Ming's backup. For now, though, he'll have to amount to much, much more. In Andersen's favor is Rick Adelman, who will find ways to emphasize the stronger elements of Andersen's game.

Jermaine Taylor - SG #5 (Rookie)

Summer League Recap Notes:

I liked what I saw from Jermaine Taylor the minute he touched the ball in his first game. He possesses the ball with strength, and he attacks the basket with the determination of a scorer. From what I've heard, Taylor can shoot it well from deep. He may not have lit the nets up this week, but you can see why the Rockets spent a couple million to get him. He's got plenty of tools to succeed on both the offensive and defensive end. Unfortunately, they didn't translate to points this week, so I'll give him a B. But don't let that discourage you about the talent that Taylor has. He's got just as good of a chance to make the team as anyone else on the summer squad.

What to expect in 2009-10: Not a whole lot...yet. Now that Rashad McCants and Will Conroy have been brought in to scare the living hell out of any over-confident rookies, Taylor will have to work to make the team. Assuming he does, he'll provide good scoring off the bench in the same way that Von Wafer did last season, though with predictably lower outputs. Defensively, he still needs work, but there's no denying that he can put points on the board. His minutes will be low, so he'll have to be money when he does see the floor, but there's a lot to like about Taylor. He's one of the most NBA-ready rookies out there.

Chase Budinger - SG #10 (Rookie)

Summer League Recap Notes:

What was the most impressive aspect of Chase Budinger's Summer League performance? He improved from each game to the next. As his role on the squad became clearer, Chase adjusted swiftly and without any problems. You could tell that Bud Light was much more comfortable with the offense in Game 5 than he was in any other contest. His catch-and-shoot plays were much smoother, and he began to attack the basket with more grit than he had shown earlier in the week (if you didn't see a couple of his dunks, they were really nice).

Chase does need to work on his defense, especially against the drive, but with his athleticism and quickness, it should only be a matter of motivation and committment. That's good news for us, as Budinger, once projected to be a lottery pick, is already playing with a chip on his shoulder. If he can prove to Daryl Morey and the Rockets that he is capable of being a reliable, but not necessarily imposing defender, Budinger should have no problem finding a spot on the active roster.

What to expect in 2009-10: Plenty of jump shots. Chase is a perfect "system" player. He's big, athletic, and can shoot the ball well. If you send him through screens and get him open, he'll knock down the jumper. But Bud Light isn't quite as good on the isolation, as he has a tendency to be a bit soft on the drive. Luckily, Budinger won't be asked to do such things. He'll be fighting to see any minutes, but he picked the right year to be a Rocket - any scoring will be welcome. If he can find a niche on the team, he'll play.

Joey Dorsey - PF #15

Summer League Recap Notes:

It was the perfect week for the Kraken. The brunt of my praise doesn't pertain to the fact that he lead the Summer League in rebounds, blocked shots at will, and showed off his passing touch. Instead, I was overly impressed by how committed Dorsey was to his role on the floor. He didn't try to score against weaker competition; only when he was clearly lined up for a post move did he utilize the spin or the power dribble. Every time Dorsey caught the ball, he would hand it back off to a guard, and immediately find position down low for a rebound or entry pass. He played very maturely and very efficiently, and did what was asked of him: to rebound and play defense. The passing skills were an added bonus. Joey's performance should guarantee him a spot on the opening day roster.

What to expect in 2009-10: It's unclear how much Dorsey will play, and this is assuming he even makes the roster, something I considered to be automatic a month ago. While we'd all love to hear more of his ruminations from the bench, this is the first time that Joey has been healthy, and it would make sense for him to see the floor whenever defense, rebounding, and ferocious gorilla dunks are in high demand. However, the signing of Pops Mensah-Bonsu complicates Dorsey's situation a bit. It's unclear at this point whether or not Pops is a better fit for the Rockets than Dorsey. The former Memphis Tiger brings a tough, physical presence that the Rockets need in the paint, but Pops' athleticism may be too much to ignore. It's going to be an interesting camp battle.

Brian Cook - PF #43

Strengths: Cook's 6'10 frame has absolutely nothing to do with his strengths. He is a shooter - you might as well consider him a guard with extremely delayed reactions. Cook is also an effective contract negotiator and clusterf**k extraordinaire. He exercised his 3.5 million dollar option in the offseason, thus, for lack of a better word, screwing us.

Weaknesses: If you're lucky enough to spot Cook inside the three point line, you won't see him doing much. He'll grab a rebound if it comes to him. He'll block a shot if the ball is hanging in front of his face. Otherwise, Cook is probably one of the more useless big men in the paint.

What to expect in 2009-10: Morey should be feverishly trying to trade Cook throughout the season (consider the following Tweet to be a head start: "Cook: in good shape & shooting well"). If Brian somehow manages to stay in Houston, he'll be sitting on the bench.

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

Pops Mensah-Bonsu - PF

From Adam of RaptorsHQ, SB Nation's Toronto Raptors Blog:

Pops was one of the lone bright spots for the team last year. Similar to Jamario Moon the season before, Pops quickly became a fan favourite as a player who came out of no where and provided the team with a lift where it needed it most (on the glass in this case.)

Simply put Mensah-Bonsu is an athlete. He's extremely raw still offensively (although his shot and low-post game have come a ways since his days at George Washington) but he can make plays that many other players in the league can't because of his strength and athletic ability. He's a terrific rebounder, solid shot-blocker, and great addition defensively in help situations. Individually on defense he gets a bit over-anxious at times and tends to foul, but in limited minutes off the bench that shouldn't be too much of an issue.

I really wanted the Raps to hold onto Pops. He's still very young and could turn into a nice 8th or 9th man off the bench for a club. And best of all, unlike many other players in the league, Pops just simply knew his role. When he was out there, you didn't have to worry about him trying to go one-on-one or fire up jump shots unless the clock was winding down. He stuck to his rebounding and defense role, and did an excellent job in limited minutes.

What to expect in 2009-10: A fight for playing time. From what I've read and heard about Pops thus far, he sounds like a perfect fit in Houston. We like athletic guys who "know their role." Unfortunately for Pops, there are two of them who are sitting comfortably on the current depth chart in Chuck Hayes and Carl Landry. Joey Dorsey is also in the running for playing time. While Pops comes off as a fantastic addition, he may have to act like a running back and act fast when something opens up.

Romel Beck - SG

From Wayne Vore of Pounding the Rock, SB Nation's San Antonio Spurs blog:

He's a rail-thin scorer. He has good range on his shot. But he didn't strike me as a spot up shooter so much as a scorer. Meaning I got the impression that he just knows how to get the ball in the hole in a variety of ways. His shot selection was really pretty bad. Even games when he got on fire he would end up 7-15 because he would force a few really bad shots.

I don't think he can play much defense. He's very thin and didn't strike me as extremely quick. A decent handle but definitely not a point guard.

What to expect in 2009-10: After that glowing review, I'm not sure what to think of Beck. Unless Morey is desperate (and I mean really, really desperate) for scoring, I don't see Beck fitting in on our roster. I'd much rather have a big body in Pops as opposed to a scoring guard in Beck. Unless something catastrophic happens during camp, like if Taylor or Budinger were to be cast off despite holding guaranteed contracts, Beck will be playing D-League ball in 2009.

Will Conroy - PG

Summer League Recap Notes:

Will Conroy, aside from piling up a bunch of three point plays, didn't dazzle anyone in Las Vegas. To begin with, there wasn't much hype surrounding Conroy, and for good reason. He, much like our own Kyle Lowry, is hardly noticeable in the boxscore and even on the court at times. But he doesn't do anything wrong. In total, Conroy turned the ball over only six times - Jonny Flynn had seven turnovers in his first game! Conroy ran the offense well and jumped at every chance to drive at the bucket. I don't remember anyone easily beating him off the dribble, and his toughness and dedication to hard-nosed basketball surely impressed the Rockets' front office. I thought he did just enough to earn consideration for a roster spot, and while he may not find any room initially, there is a chance he could receive a call-up or two during the regular season.

What to expect in 2009-10: A call-up later this season. Conroy is certainly worth his non-guaranteed contract, but his likely position on the depth chart (third point guard) isn't going to help his case over shooting guards such as Taylor and Budinger, both of whom received guaranteed contracts. However, at some point, depending on who falls victim to injury, Conroy could see a brief call-up and get some minutes. He's done all that he can at the D-league level.

Garrett Temple - PG (Rookie)

Summer League Recap Notes:

There wasn't a whole lot to expect from Temple in the first place, but with a 6'6 point guard on the market, the Rockets decided to stick him on the SL roster. He's very athletic, very long, and can get to the basket against smaller guards. But Temple didn't look comfortable as a point guard. He only had two assists in the 62 minutes that he played this week, to go along with nine turnovers. He won't be playing for the Rockets this season - his game, at least at the point guard position, isn't ready yet. Yet, I do think he will eventually find a way into The Association. Just not sure when that's going to be.

What to expect in 2009-10: A long season in the D-League.

And there you have it. Go Rockets!!

(photographs courtesy of Yahoo! Sports, NBA.com, and Google.com)

Spoiler Alert: Houston Rockets Preview

djturtleface — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 03:36:02 -0000

More photos » by Karen Warren - AP

Chase Budinger might not be an impact rookie, but he sure is an impact reader! (AP Photo/Houston Chronicle, Karen Warren)

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The Rockets sure are a scrappy bunch, aren't they? In the playoffs they dismantled the Trail Blazers, lost Yao early in the Lakers series, then played like Chuck Hayes and Yao Ming were players of roughly equal value. Their brand of basketball really doesn't look that different from anyone else's, but somehow they get completely different results.

I've heard that they collect defensively minded, high-efficiency players. It's apparently a revolutionary strategy by Daryl Morey, their statistic minded general manager. But since when is it revolutionary to want players who score more often on less shots, or players who play solid defense?

My point is, I don't buy it that Morey's Rockets are somehow fundamentally different then any other basketball team. The Golden State Warriors are different and you can see it. The Knicks definitely play a different style of ball, and it's clear when you watch. When I watched the Rockets last season they looked more atypical with Yao then without him in Daryl Morey straight-hustle-mode. To learn what that means, click over the jump.

Preview

So the bulk of the homecourt defender corps are back for the Rockets, that's definitely a good sign. Luis Scola is a remarkably solid player, though I'm not sure if he's quite the talent that metric stats tell you he is. If he is more heavily featured in the offense his efficiency should drop significantly. Aaron Brooks is also solid, but he isn't Tony Parker. The kid needs to get more assists before he lives up to the hype. Shane Battier is, of course, Shane Battier. There is no reason to think that he won't remain as respectable as ever.

An outside note: Can people stop acting like the Rockets were the first team to figure out that Battier was valuable? The Grizzlies signed him to the big contract, and traded him for Rudy Gay, who had enormous hype. That New York Times article didn't discover Battier, the Grizzlies did.

Of course the Rockets offseason also had significant turnover. Ron Artest was essentially traded for Trevor Ariza, Yao Ming had surgery that has him out for the season, and Tracy McGrady either is or isn't playing. Alright that's nothing new for McGrady, but the other news were pretty big when they hit. Count me among those who believe Ariza is an upgrade for the Rockets and Artest is an upgrade for the Lakers. While Chuck Hayes looked like an able backup for Yao Ming against the Lakers, the center position is a major void for the Rockets, and it probably will be for the bulk of the season. Feed me the company line that the Rockets are a different type of team and don't need a traditional center. Wait through this season and then try to tell me that again. Try it.

"As I was saying, TRY IT!"

Their bench is sound. Former Grizzly Kyle Lowry can play, though his range is very limited. David Anderson might be decent. Carl Landry is a limited minutes superstar, but I'm not sure if he'll be so effective without Yao around to demand double-teams on the boards. Their draft picks probably won't make much of an impact, and probably won't fill the bench-scorer void left by Von Wafer's departure. While that's a worry, this team isn't about scoring, it's about not scoring.

Fantasy Preview

Breakout: Tracy McGrady- Oh my gosh, the crux of the article! In the fantasy section! The Big Sleep is going to go nuts this season. You didn't hear it here first, but I'll show you where you did hear it first. The man's only 30, and sounds like he's in the best shape of his life. Look ESPN has him ranked 36th this season--36th in shooting guards. There was a time not that long ago when he was a top ten player. Draft him late with absolutely no fear, you're going to drop somebody sooner or later anyhow. With nobody else around to take shots for the Rockets, I give Tracy at least 20 points, 5 boards, 5 assists, and decent three pointers. Those numbers could really help you, even if he only plays around 60 games.

Bust: The Rockets- Don't draft them. They don't score enough. Count me among those who believe Aaron Brooks, Trevor Ariza, and Luis Scola won't average more than 15 points, which is really going to hurt you, particularly in leagues that count both FGM and points, which is how you should be playing. Even in other leagues, the Rockets just don't have much to offer in fantasy this season. If Scola blocked shots, maybe, but he doesn't, so why wouldn't I draft Zach Randolph instead?

Predictions

My Prediction: 41-41 (ESPN: 37-45)

So is it going to be that much of a problem that the Rockets don't have to win with, to get lame for a second, rocket science? No. Tracy McGrady is going to give this team plenty of superstar scoring to pair with their set of guys who will go out and get their 10 to 20 a night in the flow of the game. They'll play great defense and play smart under coach Rick Adelman, who will win Coach of the Year.

The hole at center will be a problem, but not a huge one, because I think the Rockets are going to be dealing for one at some point this season. Maybe a certain backup center they coveted installing in their starting role? Maybe somebody else. Either way if McGrady can keep this team afloat, trying to play for both a final contract and relevance, GM Daryl Morey will prove his worth by providing them with the pieces to make a reasonable, if unspectacular and fairly mundane, season.

Visit The Dream Shake for all your Rockets needs!

Poll

How many games will the Rockets win?

Over 41 games.

83 votes

Under 41 games.

35 votes

118 votes | Poll has closed

What happened to the "big trade" that has yet to materialize?

grungedave — Fri, 28 Aug 2009 15:04:39 -0000

More photos » by Pat Sullivan - AP

4 months ago: Houston Rockets newly-signed center David Andersen, of Australia, is photographed with his new jersey during a news conference, Friday, Aug. 14, 2009, in Houston. The Rockets signed Andersen to a multiyear contract to help make up for the loss of Yao Ming, who is out indefinitely with a hairline fracture in his left foot. (AP Photo/Pat Sullivan)

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Sorry for the lack of recent updates. But don't blame me. Blame Daryl Morey or whichever GM refuses to answer phone calls when his receptionist says "it's a Mr. Morey on the line... he wants to talk about a trade." (Not that I don't understand why a GM would hesitate to take phone calls from our resident Boy Genius. No one wants to get fleeced, and that's all Mr. Morey seems to do to his colleagues.)

This time a year ago we were basking in the awesomeness that was the Ron Artest trade. Never before has a summer league game changed the immediate fortunes of a team so quickly. Thank you Donte Greene and the Sacramento Kings management. It made 2009 that much more fun for all of us.

Of course, that trade happened on July 31, 2008. Giving the Rockets plenty of time to get the roster tweaked before training camps started in October.

In contrast... this year the Rockets only seem to be losing players. Artest ended the experiment in July and signed with the Lakers. Tracy McGrady is still going to be out until January-ish recovering from surgery to his knee and shoulder. Yao Ming announced that his foot is sore he is going to take a one year sabbatical (and I'm just blocking out the thought that he is actually injured). Von Wafer then sulked his way to Greece. At least he got paid.

Yeah, sure we signed Trevor Ariza. And David Andersen (*yawn*). I just....... I just don't see either being a franchise player. It's not like the "impact" trade Les Alexander promised in 1993 when he bought the Rockets and then promptly traded for.... Mario Elie. Though with Hakeem, Otis and Horry already on the roster, this was a perfect trade. Obviously.

Nevertheless, when Yao was pronounced "out" for 2010, the belief was that the Rockets would do some major tweaking of the roster. (Hell, the NBA even gave us another MLE to encourage Morey to get another player or three!) Trades were expected. It seemed inevitable. Even Shane Battier was making public statements on facebook about how he had a feeling he would be traded during the summer. Yet none of that has happened. Which, for personal reasons, sucks - because it's given us no material to work with. I can only write fake conversations with Joey Dorsey so many times before it stops being funny!

So, I ask... where is the big trade?

I'd suggest particular players and options, but I'm not the GM of the Rockets. This is a good thing. As I would have already signed Robert Horry to a multi-year deal this summer. I'll leave the decisions up to Morey. I just didn't expect him to do nothing after the Andersen signing.

With my luck, I'll post this and an announcement will be made 15 minutes later. But, hey, I'll take the temporary embarrassment in exchange for the future of my favorite team!

Wafer joins Olympiakos; Taylor among candidates to replace role

Tom Martin — Mon, 10 Aug 2009 20:51:44 -0000

More photos » by Matt Sayles - AP

7 months ago: Los Angeles Lakers' Shannon Brown, center, Trevor Ariza, right, and Houston Rockets' Von Wafer go after a loose ball during the first half of Game 1 of a second-round NBA playoff series in Los Angeles on Monday, May 4, 2009. (AP Photo/Matt Sayles)

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As OAL pointed out last night, Von Wafer will be joining Greek club Olympiakos, reportedly for $5 million over 2 years.

From Eurobasket:

Von Wafer (196-G-85, college: Florida St.) is about to join the Greek powerhouse Olympiakos. The 24-year-old guard spent the last season in the NBA playing for the Houston Rockets. He averaged 9.5 points, 1.7 boards and 1.1 assists per game.

The Rockets weren't about to pay Wafer that kind of money and instead opted to sign a comparable talent in Jermaine Taylor to a cheaper deal. Chase Budinger and James White will also be in contention for Wafer's vacated role off the bench, assuming the latter two make the team.

Wafer's departure comes without shock or surprise, and though he performed well when called upon last season, replacing his one-dimensional game should be relatively easy. Taylor and Budinger have both shown that they can shoot the ball well from outside, and it's safe to assume that each can outperform Wafer's paltry rebound and assist numbers.

However, all quibs concerning Wafer's on-court shortcomings aside, the Von Hawk will be missed. He was a shock of lightening off the bench and was the only healthy throw-down dunk artist that the Rockets employed, as Ron Artest rarily lept more than a few inches off the ground.

He had his moments, but hopefully with his new club, as Kelly Dwyer points out in his latest BDL piece, Wafer will relax his game and lose the perfectionist attitude that wound up getting him de-benched against the Lakers.

Best of luck to him eventually finding a permanent home. And who knows - maybe he could return in a few years?

When You Come to a Fork in the Road, Take It

Tom Martin — Wed, 08 Jul 2009 17:20:42 -0000

View full size photo »

NBA teams will rarely shock you.

In between the preseason and postseason, there might be a few surprises. Nothing is totally predictable. Von Wafer is a prime example of this. Joey Dorsey is not. You have to be honest about these things.

On the first day of the season, you have a realistic goal, and then you have an optimistic goal. Realistically, I thought the Rockets could make it to the Western Conference Finals this season. Optimistically, I thought they could win the whole thing. Neither prediction was correct. But losing in the second round was no "shock." The Magic making it to the Finals was no shock either. You knew they'd be good enough to at least compete. There is always going to be some leeway. You can't predict leeway, and thus, it exists.

There is the occasional final-record shock, which is precisely why I used "rarely" instead of "never." Who knew the Toronto Raptors would become so irrelevant this season? Who picked Detroit to finish with a losing record? Who thought the Spurs would end up with the first overall pick in 1997? Sometimes, everything totally deviates from the expected value. I'll be re-taking statistics next year, by the way.

An odd, yet fitting example of how your gut prediction of a team's success rarely fails is the Rockets. Ever since Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming teamed up, championship chatter has spawned by opening night. And yet, nearly every Rockets team has experienced a sickening low before miraculously rising back up to nearly meet the aforementioned expectations. In other words, it all looks grand from afar, until you grab the binoculars.

For the past four seasons, if you glanced at the Rockets' healthy roster before the year began, you'd instantly tag it as a lock for 50+ wins. And if you didn't view a single regular season game or roster update, you'd think that the Rockets had been sailing smoothly to a high seed in the Western Conference playoff picture. Of course, the past four years have been anything but smooth.

I'm not sure how much longer can this team keep rescuing itself from the depths of mediocrity. Will the Rockets finally put it all together, or will they fall into a hole too deep to climb out of? What will the ultimatum of this generation of Rockets be? It just goes to show how truly elusive an NBA title can be, in case you forgot.

As far as expectations go for the 2009-2010 campaign, the Rockets will have none. There are too many unanswered questions. October of 2009 will feel like January of any other year. We're starting in the middle, the presumed period of turmoil for the typical Rockets season. Instead of approaching the season with promise and hope, our Rockets will begin as the underdogs. This squad knows the role quite well, but has never played it from the start. We're not going to have 41 games to respond to critics; we're going to have 82. Isn't that strange?

So to get to the point: I've no clue of what to expect from the Rockets this season.

What if Yao and Tracy McGrady come back healthy? Could we compete for a title? What if Yao and Tracy don't come back at all? Could we be in the lottery? What if Trevor Ariza explodes into a legitimate scoring threat? What if he doesn't? I'm so confused.

Rockets fans have had it easy of late (as easy as holding your breath for eight months can be). The blueprint for each season: If healthy, we win. If not, we don't. But this is the first year in which our health problems are striking early. We don't know what's going to happen at all.

Thankfully, Daryl Morey has an answer for our blindness. It's called 'cheap youth', and we have more of it than we think. Aaron Brooks, Kyle Lowry, Ariza, Luis Scola (he's got plenty of years left), Carl Landry - this is our core of young players, and yet, we're not paying them much at all. On top of that, Yao Ming should have some good years left, and Tracy McGrady's expiration date will leave us with plenty of money to spend in order to replace him. In other words, there is a light at the end of the tunnel - in the future.

But as for this season? I don't know. Yao's decision will help, but until then, it's impossible to predict our 2009-2010 campaign. We don't know what to expect. We can't be shocked, because we have no idea what to label as concrete.

Which might be a good thing.

We lost Crazy Pills... but what about Von Wafer?

grungedave — Mon, 06 Jul 2009 18:54:46 -0000

The holiday weekend came and went. Along with the exit of the beer and hot dog-filled weekend was the move to Los Angeles by Ron Artest. Oh, well - it was not unexpected. Besides, the Rockets picked up a 24 year old with a championship ring to play the same position for a cool $33M. That will be about $1M per dribble over the life of the contract (for, you see, the unspoken part about Ariza is he has worse handle than an SUV with a high center of gravity). But enough about weekend transactions that I do not understand...

what about Von Wafer!?!?

The Chronicle reported this weekend that Von doesn't understand the Ariza signing and that he's angry. Or maybe that's just his agent trying to talk tough. Since I have no idea who Mitchell Butler is and because I don't want to misinterpret him... here's what he told the Chron:

A day after he was stunned with the Rockets’ agreement with Ariza, Wafer’s agent, Mitchell Butler, said the Rockets have shown little interest in keeping Wafer, 23, leading him to look elsewhere.

Butler said he was "floored" that the Rockets pursued Ariza, rather than seeking to keep Wafer and Ron Artest, and said it is "definitely highly unlikely (Wafer) would be back."

"None of it made any sense to me," Butler said. "We had a good conversation with them prior to free agency. I expected they would look at a center and then come back and look in-house."

And yet... your client was never going to get $33M or the midlevel exception, so wait your turn Mr. Butler.

I fail to see how letting Artest go and signing Trevor Ariza somehow impacts the Rockets' decision whether or not to keep Von Wafer. Look, I love the Baron. Von was entertaining as hell to watch last year. But he's not exactly a hot commodity on the free agent market right now. ESPN doesn't even have him listed among people to care about in the rumors (Insider link, sorry for you non-subscribers).

Of the top 50 free agents this offseason (just under 2 per team on average)... Von is nowhere to be found. Translation? I do not think his agent understands how little leverage Von has in this situation.

So, Mr. Butler, I suggest you check your ego at the door and take what the Rockets give you. I'm sure Morey and Adelman want Von back on the roster next year to give the Rockets energy off the bench. Hell, I *know* Lee wants him back just so he can justify buying a #13 jersey. That said: the Rockets won't be offering that roster spot to Von Wafer for as much money as his agent appears to be demanding though. Hopefully cooler heads prevail and Von realizes he has a good thing here. To bitch about money might short-circuit his entire career.

Reevaluating the Phoenix Suns off season options

Phoenix Stan — Sat, 04 Jul 2009 19:50:31 -0000

Happy birthday America!

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Round about mid-May we took a look at five options for the Suns this summer and gave odds for each. Ranking Trade Shaq as the fourth option and giving it 10% odds might (might) not have been my finest moment as a keyboard GM.

Since May the Suns have let Shaq move along to the more royal confines of Cleveland and have come close to trading Amare to Golden State. A deal which is by no means completely dead although I would say it seems to be on life support at the moment with a Do Not Resuscitate order pinned to its gown. Given my track record that means it will be done by July 9th.

With the 14th pick, Steve Kerr and his sidekick David Griffin drafted Earl Clark (passing on the surprisingly still available Jrue Holiday) and in the second round took Other Brother Griffin and some Bosnian kid who was sold to the Cavs too fast for me to remember his name. More likely then not in three or four years we will all know his name just like Marcin Gortat who was drafted with the 57th pick and sold by the Suns in 2005.

And to drive the draft nail in a little deeper, the 2nd round pick the Suns traded to the Spurs to jump up and get Dragic turned into DeJuan Blair. I hate to wish for anyone's knees to implode, but for the sanity of all Suns fans it would be best if Blair doesn't have a good NBA career.

The free agency period started with a ~~bang~~ whimper as the the Pistons used all that cap space to land Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva; the Lakers swapped a young stud defender for an old crazy one that likes to dominate the ball; and the Clippers pulled off the trade of the summer by dumping Zach Randolph's $33m on the Grizzlies young locker room and got back the very serviceable Quentin Richardson and his expiring $8.7m contract.

The dust hasn't settled yet as Hedo was Trailblazer for a few hours until his wife found out and now he looks to be headed to the European Raptors. Gortat and Kidd seemed destined for the Mavericks and Carlos Boozer shocked the Wasatch Mountain faithful by staying with the Jazz.

That leaves a ton of big names still out there as of today including: Bass, Sheed, Milsap, Lee, Robinson, Childress, Felton, Miller, Bibby, Sessions, Zaza, Birdman, Marion, Iverson, Odom, Von Wafer (just calling him Wafer seems wrong), Gooden and the handful of bigs that the Suns are supposedly interested in: McDyess, Frye, Wilcox (who I love if we can get him cheap enough), Joe Smith and of course Mr. Grant Hill. oh, and don't forget Stephon Marbury.

With all that having gone down so far, here's a reevaluation and updating of the Suns options as of today, July 4th, 2009.

Oh, and Happy Birthday America! You don't look a day over 217!

Option 1 - Standing Pat

There's a great thing about the Standing Pat option, it is always available. No matter where you are, you can always decide that you've reached your (temporary) destination and stop moving forward. Sometimes it makes sense to take a break on your journey and fight with the Army you have and sometimes you must continue onwards. Knowing the difference between the two is why those guys in the glass offices on Jefferson St. in downtown Phoenix get paid the big dollars. Second guessing them is why this guy in his mother's basement gets paid squat.

In the original Standing Pat assessment I felt that the Suns were 70% likely to do nothing much this off season beyond trying to resign Grant Hill and the draft. Turns out that saving ~$11m by ~~trading~~ salary dumping Shaq was of a higher importance then I considered.

In retrospect this makes sense. Why not let Shaq go play in Cleveland and avoid paying him $21m to get in the way of whatever comes next. Sure, it would have been nice to get a little bit more out of him (like a 1st round pick) but that train has passed and in the list of things to get bent out of shape over, that ranks pretty low. Besides, between Wallace's potential buy out and Pavlovic's valuable contract the fruits of this deal are not yet known. But more on that later.

Right now anyway, Standing Pat mostly means resigning Hill, not trading Amare or Nash, hanging on to Wallace and waiving Sasha to save that $5.5m. With Amundson's team option picked up the only roster uncertainty is if Taylor Griffin makes the team. He can be signed for the rookie minimum but he could also be let go or traded for some other late round rookie if someone catches the Suns' eye in Vegas.

I am out of the odds making game, but my gut says that there's more moves to come before October.

Option 2 - Trading Amare

I feel like we've beat this horse to death and then ground up the meat and gave it to the dogs which were then feed to North Korean children as part of a UN famine prevention program. But here's some more gristle...

Amare to the Warriors for Biedrins and some other young folk - seems dead since Amare in a bit of fantastic irony feels like the Warriors are giving up too much to get him and therefor isn't interested in signing an extension or sign and trade to make the deal a go
Amare to the Bulls - this one has not been rumored anywhere except in my mind. I still like some combination of Tyrus Thomas, Jerome James insurance covered contract, and John Salmons. This is a deal that I can get behind if Amare can't be kept in Phoenix and Amare should be interested in Chicago and playing with Rose. So far though, I haven't heard even a whisper of this deal so you might as well not even consider it. Forget I even mentioned it. Wipe it from your mind. But I am not deleting the actual words preceding these.
Amare to who knows where but maybe the Celtics or Detroit or even Atlanta (despite there being no real good options for any of those)

Of course, not doing anything with Amare is also an option. The Suns reportedly will be meeting with Stoudemire in the coming weeks to discuss his future in Phoenix and perhaps resigning him to a decent contract is a the best option at this point. If Amare would agree to a ~$15m per year deal, that's probably fine. If he's still insisting on the max (~$20m) then we are right back where we were last February. I've said it many times and nothing has yet to change my mind that signing Amare to a bad contract is a bigger long term risk then trading him now for what might appear on the surface as less then fair value.

We'll just have to wait and see how bad teams want Amare and how highly Amare values Amare's worth.

Option 3 - Trading Nash

We hit this one pretty hard yesterday talking about Nash's desire to play in New York and the Suns (hopefully) desire to not over pay him for a three year extension.

I think it goes without saying that the Suns with Amare and Nash along with Richardson, Barbosa and some solid rotation players are a competitive team next season. The loss of Shaq (assuming no other center is acquired) will make the Suns once again highly vulnerable on the glass and in the paint but there's little question that if healthy, that group can put up some points and win a lot of games.

But without either Nash or Amare the team will be worse in the short term and this fact seems to tie the fates of Amare and Nash together.

Option 4 - Trade JRich

I am just going to paste in most of what I wrote back in May. Nothing's changed except that the Timberwolves need Richardson even more now then they did then when they had Foye and Miller. With Rubio staying in Spain for two years and rookie Flynn running the point a back court vet like Richardson makes more sense for Minnesota then any other deal I've seen in a long time.

Jason Richardson to me is the most movable. Not because there are teams banging down Steve Kerr's door to pay $28m over two years for a guy that has been exposed as being a poor defensive player who needs the ball (a lot) to be productive but because the Suns could most easily replace him next season.

In fact, I would argue that the Suns could be a better team with a defensive guard like Dahntay Jones, Anthony Parker or Thabo Sefolosha playing next to Nash then with Richardson.

There aren't too many teams I can think of that would really benefit from Richardson. The Timberwolves keep coming to mind as the best destination. They have inside presence with Jefferson and Love but are lacking any kind of reliable outside threat that can shoot and create. Foye is decent but young and inconsistent and now gone Adding Richardson makes the Wolves better and with 3 first round picks and a couple of contracts like ~~Mike Miller~~ Etan Thomas and Ryan Gomes a deal is possible.

The good news with Richardson is that he didn't cause problems with his lessor role on the Suns. He was by all accounts a decent enough team mate and if anything was too passive in the offense. If he can come back with improved on the ball defense and a better sense of when to be aggressive with his shot and when to defer he can still give the Suns plenty of production.

Unless I am missing something, the T-wolves still have about $8m in cap space which means they could trade Etan Thomas ($7m expiring) and maybe one young player like Pecherov or Wayne Ellington for JRich.

I still think this is a very doable trade that makes sense for both teams. I've said that a few times haven't I?

Option 5 - Free Agents/Other Trades

Assuming no other changes to the roster, the biggest needs for the Suns are small forward and center. This is why Grant Hill is a the team's number one priority and all indications are that he's going to return. But, I would not be surprised if Grant is looking at all this mess and wondering what the Suns are up to. Would he really want to come back to Phoenix if Amare or Nash are gone? He certainly could sign (probably for more money) in Boston, Denver or Cleveland.

To play behind (or ahead of) Lopez, the Suns are reportedly looking at McDyess, Channing Frye, Joe Smith and Chris Wilcox. In my mind there's no question that Chris Wilcox is the best player of that bunch. He's Amare like in his athleticsm with more of Amare's tendencies to not play hard. I question that Wilcox would sign here for what the Suns would likely be able to pay. Maybe $2m? From there, I like Channing Frye. He is long and mobile and has some range with his mid-range shot. Mostly though he's young and I have no real interest in seeing McDyess or Smith come in an reprise the role Jalen Rose played at the end of his career.

The Suns do have (if they were so inclined to use it) the very tradable contract of Sasha Pavlovic that still could be used in a deal with a team more desperate then Phoenix to save money. Is there a guy out there for about $4m to $6m that the Suns really covet and is playing a for team not going anywhere? Sasha's contract could be used to grab him. Mostly likely this chip will be saved as long as possible to see how the various other dominoes fall. That's what I would do anyway and as you know you are getting all the best GM advise you are paying for on this blog.

Then finally there's still the option of trading Wallace to the Hornets for Chandler. Again, I think this is an option that can wait to see how everything else plays out. Some people argue that making this deal makes a lot of sense if Amare and Nash stay and I would agree with that. But what if Amare and/or Nash is gone? At that point do the Suns really want to bring in Chandler and his largeish contract for two more years? I doubt it. And of course no one outside of Wallace and hopefully Kerr know what Big Ben's plans for this season actually are.

Writing this has brought into focus just how interconnected all of the Suns options are. You can't say "trade Wallace for Chandler" without first knowing what you are doing with Amare. You can't consider a deal for Richardson until you know what's happening with Nash. Grant Hill is a key piece but like Nash seems to be waiting to see what everyone else does. It's a pretty complex picture and is no where near being resolved.

I think Nash is the first key piece and not Amare. If he gets extended for 3 years then you have that to build around for the short term and you have a guy that free agents are going to want to come play with. He needs to be the first domino to fall one way or another before everything else can fall into place.

To help make all of these interconnected options make more sense I've created an easy to follow visual aid...

It's no wonder Kerr looks like he's aged 10 years in the last six months.

Why overpaying for Trevor Ariza makes sense in the long-term

Tom Martin — Fri, 03 Jul 2009 22:44:12 -0000

More photos » by Reed Saxon - AP

6 months ago: Los Angeles Lakers' Trevor Ariza pauses during an interview in El Segundo, Calif., Tuesday, June 16, 2009. Ariza said he would love to return to the Lakers next season. The fifth-year forward is a free agent, along with teammate Lamar Odom. (AP Photo/Reed Saxon)

Browse more photos »

Here is what we know.

The Rockets have signed Trevor Ariza to a deal worth $33.5 million over 5 years, assuming the 2009-2010 mid-level exception is set at $5.8 million.

We know that Ariza is going to start immediately. You don't pay $33.5 million dollars to "developing prospects." This is Ariza's chance to finally blossom into more than just a freaky athlete.

We know that Daryl Morey does more calculating than any one of us here. He didn't sign Ariza to respond to the Lakers. He didn't sign Ariza to appease the fans. He signed him because he thinks it is what's best for our team and for our future. With Daryl, you know that winning is the ultimate goal. He's not one of those "gut" GM's. Only after carefully looking at each and every possible scenario will Daryl pull the trigger. If this move backfires, it won't be because we wasted money or overpaid the guy. No blame will be placed on management. It will be because Ariza didn't fulfill his potential, potential that Morey deems to be worth 33 million dollars.

We know that we overpaid Ariza for his talents. He has done absolutely nothing in his five year career to merit such a huge contract. But we also know that we could afford to overpay Ariza, with the long-term in mind. Though we pay Ariza 5.8 million dollars per year, we only have a few other players locked up over the next couple of seasons. Aside from Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming (potentially), Luis Scola comes off the books in 2010. So do Brian Cook and Brent Barry. The next season, Shane Battier, Carl Landry, and James White will become free agents, with Joey Dorsey, Aaron Brooks, and Chuck Hayes receiving team options. In other words, we will have money to spend if we choose to do so.

We know that Ariza has plenty of room to grow, at least on the offensive end. For now, he can catch and shoot effectively, and when he gets to the rim, he can finish with the best of them. My main criticism of this deal is that we've never seen Ariza as the go-to guy on a team before. He has never had to create for himself, and he has never been the primary focus of an opposing defense. While that may be a logical criticism of Ariza, it is only because it has never been asked of him before. Maybe, when finally given his shot, he will produce like his three previous teams thought he could. We know he's up for the challenge. That's why he's here, and not in Cleveland.

To use an analogy, Von Wafer played on not three, but four teams before coming to Houston. He could never score more than 2.4 points per game for any of them. But once he was given a realistic shot at contributing, he practically kept our season alive in the midst of McGrady's troubles by scoring 10 points per game in limited minutes. Take all of that improvement-through-chance, and apply it to Trevor Ariza. As an important role player for the Lakers, Ariza scored 11.3 points per game in the playoffs. If he can score 11 points per game as a role player in Los Angeles, what will he be able to do in Houston? Will he have the same success, in terms of overall improvement, that Wafer had this season? It's a tough analogy to make, given what I wrote about all of that "creating offense" and "primary focus" hoopla earlier, but it's not a far-fetched idea. And just for the record, Ariza's entrance probably marks Wafer's exit.

We know that Ariza will only be asked to be a primary scorer for a single season. Come next season, he may be reduced to our third or fourth scorer, which would be a great role for him. This further leads to the idea that the Rockets are thinking down the line, and not just about next season.

We also know that we're going into a significant reloading mode. Not re-building, but re-loading. There is a difference, and it can be found after the jump.

To rebuild is to completely start over and forfeit at least three or four winning seasons. I think that this is a one-year project. We're not going to compete this season, and that's why we made the bigger offer to Ariza instead of to Ron Artest. Ariza is 23 years old. He has yet to enter into his prime. To keep Ron was to hurt the future. It would be an Astro-nomical move, if you get my drift.

Not only are injuries hurting our chances of competing next season, but every other Western Conference power is getting even stronger. Taking a backseat for one year is a smart move, given what has occurred in the last few days.

The Los Angeles Lakers picked up Artest, and whether you believe that it is a good fit or not, it certainly makes them better off than they were before.

San Antonio traded for Richard Jefferson, and then somehow found DeJuan Blair in the second round of the NBA draft. Rumor has it that they could be the frontrunners in the Rasheed Wallace sweepstakes.

Portland has agreed in principle with Hedo Turkoglu, which finally gives them the veteran presence that they desperately needed in the playoffs. I'm curious to see how they'll balance outHedo with Martell Webster, Rudy Fernandez, and Travis Outlaw, but they will figure something out.

Dallas finally got themselves a starting center in Marcin Gortat. He's certainly an upgrade over Erick Dampier.

Utah won't be going anywhere, as they held onto both Mehmet Okur and Carlos Boozer. They also picked up a talented young point guard in Eric Maynor to back up Deron Williams.

To put it simply, we'd have to have an 82-game miracle season in order to compete for a title, as opposed to a single Game 6 win over Los Angeles on our home floor. This upcoming season will be a season of development and experience. We're going to make sure that Ariza, Aaron Brooks, Carl Landry, Kyle Lowry, and our three rookie shooting guards get as much playing time as possible.

To re-load is to add some fresh pieces to the puzzle, to sacrifice a single season for the betterment of the next. Next year will not be a 50-win season. But it will be entertaining (White+Dorsey+Ariza = Dunkathon). And it will, above all else, be productive and worthwhile.

Once this season ends, we should be relatively active in the 2010 free agent sweepstakes. I've already heard rumors of us trying to acquire Chris Bosh from Toronto, but that's not happening. Maybe in 2010, but not now.

Speaking of trades, our decision to pay Ariza so much money has brought up a fuss about other potential deals. Will we move Shane Battier now that Ariza is on board? Will we make an attempt to get rid of Tracy McGrady's contract early? I have no clue, other than the fact that acquiring Ariza should not impact our decision on what to do with Tracy. He's going to expire in 2010 regardless of how much we pay Ariza. Nothing is going to change that.

I have a hunch that Morey is not done making moves just yet. Many analysts have stated that the Rockets feel comfortable with their current center situation, but our pursuit of Gortat negates that view. We'll be on the lookout for a new big man in the upcoming days and weeks. What remains to be seen is exactly when Morey decides to make another big splash. Will it be before the season, for a legitimate starting center or power forward (Amar'e, etc.)? Or will it come in February, at the trade deadline?

I shouldn't have to tell you who I'm referring to there.