SB Nation - Juan Dixon

How does Antawn Jamison help the Washington Wizards? Some stats to consider

Mike Prada — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 06:44:20 -0000

With Antawn Jamison set to make his season debut against Cleveland tomorrow, I thought I'd scan the archives on 82games.com and look at the type of difference Jamison's presence on the floor makes for the Wizards and for guys like Gilbert Arenas and Caron Butler. These aren't meant to be conclusions, since the team dynamic now is far different than it was in, say, 2007, but they do provide some interesting food for thought.

Without further ado:

(And in case your wondering, bwoodsxyz will be back eventually, but has a personal matter he's been tending to these past couple weeks. Nothing to worry about (it's actually a very good thing), just something that requires his attention).

The Wizards as a team have always shot better with Jamison on the floor

One of the biggest talking points with Jamison is that his ability to spread the floor and score in so many different areas helped the rest of the team's shooting percentages. The record shows that this point is unmistakably true.

Here is a list of the Wizards' effective field goal percentages since 2004/05 when Jamison has been on the court, compared to when he hasn't.

Year	Wizards' eFG% with Jamison in	Wizards eFG% with Jamison out
2004/05	48.2%	45.9%
2005/06	49.4%	43.6%
2006/07	50.6%	46.3%
2007/08	49%	48.4%
2008/09	48%	47.8%

Interestingly enough, Jamison's effect was much more pronounced in the years Gilbert Arenas did play than in the ones he didn't. Part of that may be due to the way Jamison and Arenas compliment each other on the court. The shooting percentages of the Arenas/Jamison player pairing back this up, even though it took some time to get those up.

Year	Arenas' normal FG%	Arenas FG% with Jamison
2004/05	43.1%	42.9%
2005/06	44.7%	45.2%
2006/07	41.8%	44%

Jamison missed time in both 2004/05 and 2006/07. In 2006/07, the Wizards leaned heavier on their Big 3 than ever before, so it shouldn't be a surprise that Arenas benefited from Jamison's presence, at least from the shooting department.

What about Caron Butler, you ask? That's a bit more of a mixed bag.

Year	Butler's normal FG%	Butler's FG% with Jamison
2005/06	45.5%	45.3%
2006/07	46.3%	47.7%
2007/08	46.6%	45.9%
2008/09	45.3%	44.2%

I guess you could throw out 2008/09, but it's a bit troubling to me that Jamison historically hasn't had much of an effect statistically on Butler's shooting. Butler's shooting has been simply dreadful this season, and if past history is any indication, it might take more than just having Jamison back to fix it.

Nearly every Wizards player shoots above their season average playing in tandem with Jamison than playing without him

Overall,, Jamison tends to have an across-the-board effect in improving individual players' FG% from their normal season average.

In 2004/05, Jamison's presence resulted in a bump in FG% for every key rotation player except Arenas (barely), Kwame Brown, Etan Thomas and Michael Ruffin.
In 2005/06, only Butler (barely) and Ruffin shot worse among rotation players.
In 2006/07, only DeShawn Stevenson, Darius Songaila (in less than half the year) and Ruffin (in limited minutes) didn't see a FG% bump with Jamison in the lineup
Jamison didn't have nearly as dramatic an effect in 2007/08: Only Songaila saw a major bump in FG% due to Jamison's presence. Most players were pretty much at the same level with or without Jamison on the court.
In 2008/09, Jamison's presence gave a significant bump to the following players' FG%: JaVale McGee (+2.5%), Etan Thomas (+2.5%), Andray Blatche (+1.6%), Dominic McGuire (+3.4%) and Javaris Crittenton (+1.8%). He had basically no effect on Mike James and DeShawn Stevenson. Only Butler, Nick Young and Juan Dixon saw their FG% drop with Jamison out there with him.

Obviously, that's not perfect, but for the most part, Jamison helps create better shooting percentages for the Wizards.

Jamison helps Arenas get more assists, but not Butler

Logically, it would seem Jamison helps get Arenas and Butler more assists because of his ability to finish quickly without necessarily creating his own shot off the dribble. The stats back this up in Arenas' case, but interestingly enough, not in Butler's.

In Arenas' three healthy years, he has always dished out dimes at a higher rate with Jamison on the floor than his season average.

Year	Arenas' A/40 season	Arenas A/40 with Jamison
2004/05	5.0	5.5
2005/06	5.7	6
2006/07	6	6.4

That may not seem like much, but consider that Jamison and Arenas nearly always shared the court, due to both playing a ton of minutes for Eddie Jordan. It's incredible that Jamison makes even that much difference in Arenas' assist rates considering how rarely the two played without each other.

That same logic holds for Caron Butler, yet we don't see the assist bump that you see with Arenas.

Year	Butler A/40 season	Butler A/40 with Jamison
2005/06	2.8	2.8
2006/07	3.8	3.7
2007/08	4.9	4.8
2008/09	4.5	4.6

Once again, this provides evidence that it'll take more than Jamison's return to fix Butler's woes.

Jamison and rebounding

Jamison's ability to improve the team's total offensive and defensive rebound percentage when he's on the floor compared to where he isn't is a bit more of a mixed bag than I expected. Consider:

There are two years (2005/06 and 2007/08) where Jamison had a tremendous positive impact on both the teams' offensive and defensive rebounding.
There is one year where he made a tremendous impact on the offensive glass, but not so much on the defensive glass (2004/05)
There is one year where he had a tremendous impact on the defensive glass (crazy, even) and had a pretty significant negative differential on offensive rebounding (2008/09)
There is one year (2006/07) where he didn't have much of an effect on either the offensive or defensive boards.

There are several reasons for this odd trend. The Wizards were fifth in the league in offensive rebounding in 2004/05 but just 25th in defensive rebounding, so Jamison probably caught that bug. 2005/06 was when Etan Thomas missed a lot of time and Michael Ruffin caught the suckitude bug. 2006/07 was when Jamison was asked to leak out onto the break more often than he was asked to rebound. 2007/08 was when Jamison himself had the best rebounding season of his career. 2008/09 was, well, 2008/09.

Anyway, these stats are just meant as food for thought. Use them as you all may.

Waive Goodbye, Part 1

Jon L — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 13:00:35 -0000

by Haraz N. Ghanbari - AP

Paul Davis poses for trading card photo. (AP Photo/Haraz N. Ghanbari)

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Here it is; the long-awaited (okay maybe not), oft-promised look at who got waived and who made an NBA roster. I'm breaking this up into three parts, and here's what they'll look like: for each team, there will be a list of who got cut and who got kept (and yes I know the grammar isn't great, but that's what I've decided to go with). To make it interesting, I'll look at one Eastern Conference team and one Western Conference team each day. I probably won't discuss every player, since at this point in his career Juan Dixon can do whatever as far as I'm concerned, but I'll try to hit most of the players who either previously spent time in the D-League or might be considering it as an option this season. I'm also operating under the assumption that the vast majority of guys that I talk about will be playing in Europe. The season's already started over there in a lot of places, but there's usually room for one more skilled American player. Nonetheless, I'll try to keep the D-League optimism up. Okay? Okay. So here we go. First up: the Southeast and Pacific Divisions, below the jump.

Atlanta Hawks

Who got cut: Juan Dixon, Mike Wilks, Courtney Sims, Garrett Siler, Mario West

Who got kept: No one.

Sims and Siler are the main guys to know here, as Dixon, Wilks and West are all veterans at this point who will jump into the pool of emergency guards for less thoughtful teams to sign in case, I dunno, Eric Gordon gets hurt or something. Sims has admirers around the team, and he's showed off his scoring in the preseason, but the rebounding that was so good in the D-League last year has been largely absent thus far. That kind of game (among other reasons) makes me think he's bound for overseas despite the fact that he intrigues front offices. If they really cared, he'd have a contract by now. Siler, on the other hand, is just coming onto the scene and has nice touch and solid rebounding ability. He's just, let's call it "large." If I had to guess I'd say he's a more likely candidate for the D-League, where getting "large" guys into shape seems to be the stock in trade. He's already pretty effective as it is, and he doesn't seem have the foul problems that plague other "large" gentlemen like Mike Sweetney or Kentrell Gransberry, so if he can shed the weight then he might start garnering more serious interest.

Charlotte Bobcats

Who got cut: Dontell Jefferson, Antonio Anderson

Who got kept: Stephen Graham

I was actually kind of shocked at this one. Jefferson is a great man defender (and an all-aaround good guy) who the Bobcats seemed to like (they called him up last year), plus one of their better (if not their best) perimeter defenders with a guaranteed contract just got hurt. So why wouldn't they keep him? Stephen Graham is fine as a player, and he's a D-League success story of sorts so I shouldn't knock him too hard, but while he's a better rebounder than Jefferson, he's not as good of a defender. Hopefully Jefferson comes to the D-League and gets called up quickly, but either of those happening is unlikely, let alone both of them.

Golden State Warriors

Who got cut: Diamon Simpson, Shaun Pruitt

Who got kept: No one

Simpson is raw. Really, really, really raw. But intriguing (at least to me). I thought so when he was on Washington's Summer League team, but he got cut before they played any games and I don't think he played any in the preseason for Golden State, either. It would behoove him to go to the D-League, but who knows if that will happen. He's a Dominic McGuire-type, if McGuire is good enough to have his own type, but it boils down to this: a lot of hustle, the tools to be a very good defender, a very good rebounder, undersized as a PF but no offensive game to make up for it. Who doesn't like that kind of player? Anyway, he'll need to learn some offense somewhere, so why not the D-League? ASSUMING he enters the draft, I could see Rio Grande Valley drafting him and developing him for the Rockets, who are enamored with 6'7" power forwards who rebound really, really well. But what I think should happen and what does happen are usually two different things. Example: Fernwood 2Nite is still not on DVD.

Los Angeles Clippers

Who got cut: Anthony Roberson, Taj Gray, Jerel McNeal

Who got kept: Kareem Rush

Sorry Mike Wilks, Juan Dixon and Mario West, your fellow Brotherhood of Mediocre Shooting Guards member Kareem Rush got this. Roberson is likely headed back to Europe, with all the rest of the good three-point shooters. So is Gray. Jerel McNeal could stick around this neck of the woods, because he's a.) younger and b.) still could use some work on his offensive game. His DraftExpress "best case" is supposedly Shannon Brown, so there's some D-League-to-NBA precedent for a guy like McNeal, and he's solid enough all-around that if he continues to cut down on his turnovers he could draw some real interest.

Los Angeles Lakers

Who got cut: Mickael Gelabale, David Monds, Tony Gaffney, Michael Fey, Thomas Kelati

Who got kept: No one

Somewhat off-topic, but at this point I'm wondering what the point of the Lakers having their own D-League affiliate is. I know I'm not supposed to say that, but...who was the last player they developed in-house? Jordan Farmar, I guess? Does Josh Powell count since he never plays? I know that they're in "win-now" mode as long as Kobe Bryant is on the team, but heck, trading for Adam Morrison? They could've found someone else, put him on the D-Fenders for two years, and still eventually have gotten more out of him than Morrison will end up giving them. And no, this isn't about cutting Sun Yue. Okay, maybe it's partially about cutting Sun Yue. But that was the plan with Mickael Gelabale, I assume, who has a lot of talent and a knack for scoring. But he couldn't earn a deal and DJ Mbenga could? Mbenga is good for something, right? I mean, he is, right? I could've sworn he did something well at some point. David Monds played very well for the Lakers' Summer League team, so that likely got him some attention even if his preseason didn't. I'm willing to bet that he comes back to the D-League, just not heavily.

Miami Heat

Who got cut: John Lucas, Alade Aminu, Andre Brown, Anthony Tolliver

Who got kept: Carlos Arroyo, Shavlik Randolph

Sigh. Siiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiigh. Not that Arroyo is still around, I guess, since he's not the worst option out there and can run the pick and roll adequately, but Lucas really can play, size notwithstanding. I'm pretty sure Lucas has had some problems with not being paid by his European employers in the past, so it could be that he's soured on the enterprise, and if he comes back to the D-League he'll join the Maine Red Claws, but my best guess is that he'll try going overseas again and hope to get his check on time. Aminu may try his hand at the D-League, since his younger (and more talented) brother is still in college. Aminu played some decent defense for Washington's Summer League team, and he's pretty athletic along with being a decent ball-handler for a 6'10" guy. He needs to work on not turning the ball over and acquiring some post moves, and the D-League is as good a place as any to do that.

Orlando Magic

Who got cut: Morris Almond

Who got kept: Linton Johnson

I'm a little surprised that Johnson is still around, although Adonal Foyle got hurt so there's room for another frontcourt player. Sort of. I mean with Brandon Bass, Ryan Anderson, Rashard Lewis, Mickael Pietrus, Vince Carter and Matt Barnes around I'm not really sure how much playing time Johnson will get, even in practice. Some of those guys can play guard, true, but this team is apparently committed to the Jason Williams Reclamation Project and not, you know, keeping a guard who can actually help the team out. It's a good question where Almond goes from here, as he's "done with the D-League." Maybe he joins Dixon, et al. or maybe he just cuts his losses and heads yonder, but either way I can't shake the feeling that he never really got a fair look this offseason.

Phoenix Suns

Who got cut: Carlos Powell, Dan Dickau, Raymond Sykes

Who got kept: No one.

Well, at least our long national Dan Dickau nightmare is over. Powell played very well in the preseason, and the team spoke well of him which should help combat some old on-court character issues. He's a strong call-up candidate this season should he go to the D-League, and he's been working hard to get to the NBA so he may go that route. I've already linked to it once, but for more on Powell's play I recommend this Bright Side of the Sun post.

Sacramento Kings

Who got cut: Lanny Smith, Melvin Ely

Who got kept: No one.

I would bet that Smith returns to the D-League. He's not that far removed from breaking his foot in college, and he was a backup in Idaho last year, so he still has a lot to show. He can play, though, and it shouldn't be too surprising if he becomes a top point guard in the D-League this year. That's assuming he goes there, however, and not overseas. He played for the "NBA Generations" team that played in Korea and the Philippines, so he's gotten some international exposure, and non-US teams could come calling.

Washington Wizards

Who got cut: Vincent Grier

Who got kept: Paul Davis

Grier never really played, so this isn't a shock. He's a pretty good combo guard and scorer, but the Wizards have a ton of shooting guards on the team so this was always going to be a longshot. Paul Davis is sticking around because Antawn Jamison will be out for at least a month, and the team was already thin up front. As in, Fabricio Oberto who was signed to be the end-of-bench veteran presence, is now the starting power forward. Davis is now the fifth big, and he's defied my expectations by playing pretty well this preseason, averaging about 18 points and nine rebounds per 36 minutes while staying out of foul trouble. He shot 5-10 from the floor, and I have no idea where those shots came from exactly, but one reason I was skeptical is that last season his eFG percentages were .333 on "close" shots and .344 on jump shots (as determined by 82games.com), which are pretty bad. As long as the Wizards don't expect much from Davis on the offensive end other than dunks and tip-ins, they should be fine.

Ghosts of Wizards Past are Starting to Pop Up Again

JakeTheSnake — Sun, 04 Oct 2009 09:00:34 -0000

More photos » by Jack Dempsey - AP

Antonio Daniels could be coming to a town near you...unless it's Minneapolis...or Washington.

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Training camp is in full swing around the NBA. Training camp serves as the alarm to basketball fans that the season is about to start. It's also a gives us a great chance to reminisce about old faces who are landing in new places, trying to extend their NBA career by latching on to training camp rosters, or in some cases trying to demand a trade.

After the jump, you can check out the latest news on the man pictured above, among others.

- You may recall that Antonio Daniels was shipped to Minnesota during the summer in exchange for Darius Songaila. Understandably, the 34 year old isn't too excited about the prospect of playing in bitter cold Minnesota for a rebuilding team. So it's not too much of a surprise to see that Antonio Daniels has asked for a trade. Wolves GM David Kahn has honored his request and will allow him to pursue trade options.

Daniels, 34, was acquired from New Orleans earlier this month mainly because Kahn opened more cap space for next summer by trading Darius Songaila and the two years remaining on his contract away. Daniels wants to play significant minutes so he score another sizable contract next summer, a prospect that, barring injury, isn’t likely with the Wolves committed to Jonny Flynn and Ramon Sessions at point guard.

He said he would trade Daniels to a team where he can play more — as he did by dealing Richardson to Miami for Blount — if he can get a similar expiring $6.6 million contract in return. Kahn said he believes helping players in that situation if possible is a bit of goodwill that eventually will benefit the franchise with other players down the road.

I've heard some fans bounce the idea of trying to re-acquire Daniels with Mike James' expiring contract. It's certainly an intriguing idea, but it has too much working against it. Mike James didn't leave Minnesota on the best of terms, so its had to see Minnesota rolling out the welcome mat for him. Likewise, there was some talk that AD had become very "negative and critical" near the end of his time in D.C., so there's no guarantee that either side would be excited about a reunion.

On top of that and more importantly, trading for Mike James wouldn't do anything to change the situation that they have on their hands other than to change the name involved in the conflict. If James was sent to Minnesota, he would immediately ask for a trade because he doesn't want to spend the closing years of his career on a rebuilding team any more than Antonio Daniels does.

- If you were wondering if Juan Dixon's invitation to the Back to Camp party meant that he would be back with the team again, you don't have to worry anymore. He'll be fighting for a roster spot in Atlanta along with Mike Wilks. You may remember Wilks played a few games for the Wizards two years ago when the team was decimated by injuries.

- You've probably heard by now that Juwan Howard signed with the Blazers, but he won't be the only ex-Wiz in Portland in training camp. Donnell Taylor will also be in Oregon trying to make the team. (Editor's Note: Taylor just got cut after this post was finished). Also, while we're still on the subject of Juwan Howard, it's probably worth noting that his son Juwan Howard Jr. has signed on to play at Western Michigan next year.

- Etan Thomas won't be the only former Wizard in Oklahoma City, Michael Ruffin received an invite to participate in the Thunder's training camp.

Breaking Down the Udoka Invitation

Dave — Sun, 27 Sep 2009 06:20:05 -0000

More photos » by Layne Murdoch - NBAE/Getty Images

Blazer fans were abuzz about the possibilities of getting one of the guys in this photo this summer. Which name ended up in Kevin Pritchard's briefcase? (Photo by Layne Murdoch/NBAE via Getty Images)

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The mailbox is full of questions regarding the Ime Udoka signing and its significance. The responses range from mystified to excited to concerned. So let's clear it up and break it down.

First of all, this is a training camp invite. The contract is non-guaranteed, meaning the Blazers and Ime can part ways at any time the team chooses. Technically it's not different than any of the other invitations the Blazers have issued. Kevin Pritchard will be visiting a few guys between now and mid-October to let them know he appreciates them, respects them, and could they please clean out their locker now. Ime may well be among those.

Second of all, this is a competition for what ends up being the 15^th roster spot and no higher than the 13^th spot in the rotation. Only 12 guys suit up on a given night. You're not exactly looking for a franchise-altering move here. And this isn't one. Ime averaged a respectable 15.4 minutes per game in 67 games for the Spurs last year but his production slipped significantly from his prior seasons. His shooting, free throw shooting, and most importantly three-point shooting percentages tanked. ~~His defensive rating went down as soon as he left Portland.~~ (Edit: Never mind that. I was BRILLIANTLY going by the wrong data. Aplogies to you and Ime. --Dave) Basically he played half the minutes you remember from his tenure with the Blazers and didn't play them nearly as well. He's wading onto a roster stocked with players at his position, meaning he either really, really loves his hometown and is willing to risk an opportunity to stay in the league and any salary raise he could get playing more minutes elsewhere for a long-shot chance here OR he didn't get any decent offers. This should color expectations somewhat. He really is in the lower roster now if he makes the team and his chances of rising above that are slim.

I can already hear the choruses of, "That's what people said LAST time he signed with the Blazers!!!" so let me cut you off at the pass. This 2009-10 Blazer team is far different than the 2006-07 team that Ime contributed so much to. Outlaw and Webster were younger and even less tempered than they are now. Aldridge and Roy were rookies. The old-timers on the team were Jamaal Magloire, Raef LaFrentz, Juan Dixon, Fred Jones and Dan Dickau and the main guy was Zach Randolph. Udoka played the 4^th most minutes of anybody on the team that year because there existed both opportunity and desperate need for his steadiness, his defense, and his three-point shooting. Nobody was solidly in front of him at small forward. Nobody in the starting lineup or really anywhere in the upper rotation knew how to sell out on defense or how to play hard while being a contributory player instead of a main focus. Half the team was too young and the other half just didn't sport that kind of player. The differences between the names listed above and a mature Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge, Andre Miller and Steve Blake, Nicolas Batum and Rudy Fernandez should be obvious.

Ime is like that really nice pizza you had as a kid. (Mine was the now-defunct Manhattan's Pizza...one in the Hollywood District and one up on Palatine Hill as I recall.) It was delicious and you loved it for good reason. But then you moved to Chicago or New York and started sampling pizza and while none of them held the place in your heart that the childhood favorite did, slowly you got attuned to a different style and quality. Then you return home and you find that while your childhood pizza is still good, maybe your memory or experience gave it a fonder spot than it strictly merited. You loved it as much for what it did for you and meant to you as its inherent quality. The latter made it decent, the former made it special. You still like it, but you wouldn't replace any of your new favorite pizzas with it.

So what does this training camp invitation mean? There are three possibilities. After chewing the fat with some people who usually know what they're talking about I'm going to list them in order from least likely to most.

There's a small, small chance this really is a significant event heralding the next Blazer move which is to trade away a small forward or two. Perhaps Ime did have significant offers elsewhere but somebody telegraphed to him (or he cleverly intuited) that the Blazer offer was the one to take. In this case Ime becomes a lower rotation player and the move makes wonderful, magical, and exciting sense.

There's a somewhat larger chance, but still not huge, that the Blazers don't have complete faith in Martell Webster's foot yet. In that case the choices at backup small forward range from Outlaw to Fernandez to Roy, none of whom are completely suited for the job. Ime would be an acceptable insurance policy in that instance, though one wonders what he gives you (besides experience) that Batum doesn't.

The overwhelmingly likely explanation is that this is just what it appears to be. Ime worked out in Portland this summer. He has positive history with people in this organization. He didn't get any good offers to go elsewhere. There's no harm in the Blazers bringing him into training camp under those circumstances nor is there harm in him accepting. This is the right percentage move for both parties. Udoka probably doesn't make the team but he might attract notice elsewhere. If he does make the team he's waiting for an injury or a trade to play.

We'll have to see how it works out. I have as much fondness for Udoka as the next guy and I'd not be sad to see him make the squad. He's another one of those players that you'd never regret having on your team. But I'm not expecting miraculous, or even steady, contributions even if that happens.

--Dave (blazersub@yahoo.com)

Who's Left?

Roy_Hobbs — Wed, 23 Sep 2009 16:53:42 -0000

For some reason, most of these guys are still available...

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Following up on Jeff's article yesterday about the 15th roster spot, here's a look at some of the remaining unrestricted free agents:

PGs: Carlos Arroyo, Chucky Atkins, Dan Dickau, Tyronn Lue, Stephon Marbury, Mike Taylor, Jamaal Tinsley, Jacque Vaughn

SGs: Juan Dixon, Bobby Jackson, Flip Murray, Rashad McCants

SFs: Gerald Green, Joey Graham, Stephen Graham, Darius Miles, Wally Szczerbiak, Ime Udoka

PFs: Raef LaFrentz, Mark Madsen, Stromile Swift, Antoine Walker

Cs: Mark Blount (pending release), Dwayne Jones, Courtney Sims, Robert Swift

Obviously, none of the names above are spectacular. However, there are a few players who could help teams that are in need of some depth.

For the Celtics' purposes, none of the above is a perfect fit, of course; if they were, they'd probably be here already. I really like Bobby Jackson as a player, but he's a bit long in the tooth, and one wonders if he could play beside Eddie House in the backcourt. Jamaal Tinsley is a mess. Chucky Atkins is ancient, and his game is in decline (although he's another guy I've always liked). Flip Murray can't stick with a team, and has always seemed like a "scoring first, second, and last" type of guy. Wally is... well, he's Wally. He's a good shooter, but he's not going to bring much else to the table, especially on the defensive end (although, in his defense, I will say that he played strong defense on Ray Allen in the playoffs).

So, in the end maybe none of them makes sense, and it's a better strategy to maintain roster flexibility to sign a free agent during the season or to take back players in a 1-for-2 deal.

Update: Dan Dickau has turned down the Celtics invitation to camp and will attend the Suns camp instead (Source: Globe)

A Look at the Orlando Magic's Third-String Point Guard Options

Ben Q Rock — Tue, 04 Aug 2009 12:00:10 -0000

More photos » by Steve Yeater - AP

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The Orlando Magic's search for a third-string point guard continues in earnest. The team must fill two roster spots to meet the league minimum of 13 players, and GM Otis Smith only has minimum deals at his disposal. Indeed, the Magic must now go bargain shopping after their early-summer spending spree, which included trading for Vince Carter's $16 million contract, matching Dallas' $5.8 million offer to Marcin Gortat, and splitting the mid-level exception on Brandon Bass and Matt Barnes.

C.J. Watson has the perfect combination of youth (he's 25), skills (a career 39% three-point shooter), and desire (he openly campaigned for the Magic to sign him), but the Magic's current financial state means they can't make him an offer Golden State wouldn't match. It's a bummer. Now, Smith has to dig deep. Remember, the Magic can only offer minimum deals. For comparison, the Magic used the $1.9 million bi-annual exception on Anthony Johnson last summer. Depending on the new point guard's NBA experience--minimum deals are based on years of NBA service--he could stand to make less than half of what Johnson does.

After consulting ESPN's list of this summer's free agents, I've come up with a handful of options, each with his own pros and cons. We'll take a look after the jump.

A brief note on methodology: first, I excluded D-League players, since Smith has never made a D-League call-up since taking over as Magic GM. (Orlando's last D-League call-ups were Desmond Penigar and Britton Johnsen, both in 2003/04). Second, I excluded Jason Hart and Mike Wilks, since their agent told the Orlando Sentinel the team has yet to express an interest in either of them.

I've listed these guys in alphabetical order. You can jump to a specific player's assessment by using the links below:

Carlos Arroyo:

The Good: Despite his less-than-stellar reputation in Orlando, which employed him from the 2006 trading deadline until last summer, Arroyo's a decent NBA point guard. He shot 34.5% on three-pointers in his only year under Stan Van Gundy, and is an above-average passer for a backup.
The Bad: He fell out of favor with Van Gundy late in the 2008 season, which resulted in his appearing in only 4 playoff games, for a total of 30 minutes. Losing the backup job to Keyon Dooling is nothing of which to be ashamed, but the abrupt manner in which it happened suggests that Van Gundy reached the end of his rope with Arroyo fairly quickly. Not much has changed, in terms of the offense, since Arroyo bolted for Israel last summer, which is to say the same challenges he faced two seasons ago are still in place.
The Verdict: Part of me thinks Arroyo would be a solid, safe choice. The other part of me recalls his at times poor decision-making--we're calling Hedo Turkoglu-esque levels of befuddlement here--and wonders if there's really a role for him in Orlando. After being top dog with Maccabi Tel Aviv for a year, would he happily settle into a backup role behind Jameer Nelson? And would Nelson react negatively to Arroyo's waiting in the wings? With Arroyo, there are more questions than answers, which leads me to believe Orlando would do well to look elsewhere.

Head back to the top.

Anthony Carter:

The Good: One of the best distributors and defenders on this list, even at age 34. He's heady and hardworking, and dished 4.7 assists to just 2 turnovers per game off Denver's bench last season. He'd also be willing to play for the minimum, which is the salary he earned last season.
The Bad: Expect to read the following sentiment often in this list - he's a bad three-point shooter, with a career conversion rate of 23.8%. About the best analagy I have for him is that he's like Anthony Johnson, without the range. And yes, it's totally reasonable for that sentence to turn you off a bit. We saw last season, particularly in the playoffs with Rafer Alston running the show, what happens to the Magic's offense when its point guard isn't a three-point threat. Carter, we think, would perhaps make the wiser play and drive the ball, rather than settle for the open trey--and thus play into the opposing defense's hands--as Alston frequently did.
The Verdict: There's something to be said for consistency, and Carter provides that. Orlando could do worse than to sign Carter, and all told he's probably the best option, poor shooting be darned.

Head back to the top.

Juan Dixon:

The Good: It's hard for me to get a read on him. His size (6'03", 164 pounds) indicates he's a point guard, but his career body of work suggests he's more of an off guard. Either way, about the best we can say for Dixon is that he's improved as a passer in each of the last two seasons, with assist rats of 23.3% and 22.7%. He's also a decent three-point shooter, with a career mark of 34.1%, and he shot 41.7% two years ago.
The Bad: Defense. A PER of 20.5 allowed to opposing point guards last season. As it is, his size makes him a liability on that end. Couple that with his declining athleticism--he'll turn 31 in training camp--and you have a small point guard who can't move laterally. A disaster defending the pick-and-roll.
The Verdict: Dixon doesn't bring much to the table, at least as far as the Magic are concerned. He was hardly good enough to take minutes away from Mike James in point guard-depleted Washington last season, which speaks volumes, given how bad James is. As I understand it, though, Dixon is a positive locker-room influence. So he has that in his favor too.

Head back to the top.

Royal Ivey:

The Good: Ivey's billed as a top-notch defensive specialist and a solid third-string point guard. He can also toss in the occasional three-pointer, with a career percentage of 33.6%, which is hardly great.
The Bad: It appears as though Ivey doesn't live up to his reputation. 82games says Ivey didn't even play 1% of Philadelphia's point guard minutes last season. Two years ago, with Milwaukee, he logged 22% of the Bucks' point guard minutes, and yielded a PER of 22.4 on 55.6% eFG%.
The Verdict: We know he isn't much of a passer. And if he's not a great shooter, and if he can't defend, then what does he bring to the table? Very little, which is why Ivey is little more than a last resort for many NBA teams.

Head back to the top.

Bobby Jackson:

The Good: Even after 12 seasons, Jackson has a little bit left in the tank. He averaged 7.5 points, 3.1 rebounds, and 2 assists per game for Sacramento last season. His toughness has earned him respect throughout the league. An added bonus: his defensive rebounding rate of 12.5% would help him ignite fast breaks by himself. For comparison, Mickael Pietrus posted a DRebRate of 10.9% last season. And after spending last season in 17-win Sacramento, I'm sure he'd leap at the chance to join a contending team.
The Bad: It is entirely possible that Jackson's production would plummet. He'll turn 37 in March, and his respectable three-point shooting (35.4% career) took a huge dive last season (30.5%). As I said with Ivey: if he's not shooting, passing, or able to play defense, then there probably isn't a place for him in today's NBA. Then again, even with his poor shooting last season, he posted a Player Efficiency Rating of 12.4. Lowest of his career? Yup. Better than that of Anthony Johnson or Courtney Lee? Also yup.
The Verdict: If Smith is convinced that BJax has another productive season left in him, he'd be a nice addition to the end of Orlando's bench. There's very little risk involved with any minimum-salary player--not to put too fine a point on it, but they're only earning the minimum--but especially little with Jackson, given his track record.

Head back to the top.

Damon Jones:

The Good: An absolute assassin from long-range, Jones has connected on 39% of his triples, and is just one season removed from canning 41.7%. The man was born to shoot. And to wear goofy suits, apparently, but that's another matter.
The Bad: Jones isn't much of a passer or a defender, which would appear to relegate him to situational duty. That's what a third-stringer does anyway, sure, but he's such a defensive liability that coach Stan Van Gundy could ill-afford to play him for more than a few minutes at a time before other teams start running plays designed specifically to attack him. Another issue is Jones' ego, which may not let him accept a third-string role, even for a contender. It's a shame, since Boston's Eddie House has proven that scoring point guards can help championship teams, even if they don't play great defense.
The Verdict: Assuming Van Gundy--who coached Jones in Miami during the 2004/2005 season--could keep Jones' ego in check, he'd be a decent signing. Not great, or even good, but decent. Orlando's offense needs three-point shooting, and Jones can provide that above all else.

Head back to the top.

Brevin Knight:

The Good: Well, he can pass the ball on offense, and the can take it away on defense. His Pure Point Rating--John Hollinger's improved assist-to-turnover ratio stat--of 6.5 last season would have led the Magic.
The Bad: A complete and utter offensive zero. Here's Hollinger on Knight's 2007/08 season:

Knight led the league in the percentage of his shots that were long twos for a second straight season, with his total increasing from 62.0 percent last year to 69.2 percent this year.

Looked at another way, Knight was one of 10 players to take fewer than 30 percent of his shots from inside. The other nine all made at least 96 3-pointers -- Knight didn't make any. Layups and 3-pointers are the game's most rewarding shots, and he couldn't generate either, which helps explain his brutal TS% (which ranked 66th out of the league's 71 point guards).

Knight also rarely created shots -- he had the second lowest usage rate at his position. And while he ranked second in the NBA in assist ratio, it was largely because he couldn't create a shot for himself.

And if he's lost yet another step? Yikes.
The Verdict: If I'm going to discount Jones for being a defensive liability, I must also discount Knight for his offensive shortcomings. The idea of having arguably the best distributing backup point guard in the NBA might entice Otis Smith, but I'm not sure it'd be enough to offset Knight's inability to score. It's not like he's going to get hot from long range one night. In 729 career games--more than 18000 minutes--he's made exactly 16 three-pointers. What it boils down to is a calculated risk. Do you bank on Knight's veteran savvy compensating for his diminished physical skills? Or do you play it safer with another pass-first, shoot-second guard?

Head back to the top.

Tyronn Lue:

The Good: He spent half of last season on the Magic's sidelines, as Orlando acquired him two days after Nelson suffered a season-ending shoulder injury. Zach McCann says he's a good influence in Orlando's locker room, a sentiment with which I agree. Additionally, the man can shoot: 39.1% on three-pointers for his career, and he's getting better with age, connecting on 45.3% in his last two seasons combined.
The Bad: The Magic must not have seen much in Lue, as they traded for Rafer Alston at the deadline, thus relegating Lue to the end of the bench on most nights.
The Verdict: Apparently, the Magic don't think as highly of Lue as I do, as all signs here point to the Magic's letting him go. It's a shame, because his three-point shooting and intelligent play make him a better third-stringer than most, in my estimation.

Head back to the top.

Ronald "Flip" Murray

The Good: Murray just turned in his best professional season, scoring 12.2 points per game in a reserve role for the Atlanta Hawks. He matched franchise two-guard Joe Johnson in three-point shooting (36%, a career-high) and exceeded him in overall field-goal shooting (44.7%, also a career-high). And although he wasn't much of a playmaker for Atlanta (14% assist rate), he's just one year removed from a 27.5% assist rate in a season he split between Indiana and Detroit. Hooray for versatility.
The Bad: His percentages have "fluke" written all over them. Plus, after a great season in which he earned $1.5 million, he might seek a raise.
The Verdict: For the right price, he might be a decent pickup. Orlando could use some scoring off its bench.

Head back to the top.

Mike Taylor:

The Good: He's young (23) and athletic (dunk of the year). That athleticism helps him get into the lane, where he takes 42% of his shots, converting at a 45.9% clip while also getting blocked 14% of the time.
The Bad: Absolutely, positively, cannot shoot unless it's a layup. 32.5% on threes, 69.1% at the foul line, and a 41.2% mark from the field overall. His turnover rate of 19.4% would have been the worst mark on last year's Magic team by far, worse even than Johnson's 16.4% figure. And his playmaking ability leaves much to be desired.
The Verdict: Were it not for his age, we probably wouldn't even be discussing him right now. There's a chance that, with the proper guidance, he could turn into a fairly decent point guard. However, Orlando is in win-now mode, and doesn't have the time, in my estimation, to try to bring its third-string point guard up to speed.

Head back to the top.

Jamaal Tinsley:

The Good: He's a tremendous passer, with a career Pure Point Rating of 5.9 (Jameer Nelson's is 3.5). If nothing else, he can run an offense. And he's nothing if not in shape, having sat out all of last season as the Indiana Pacers, his then-current employer, banished him from the team and shipped the contents of his locker to his Atlanta home. He and the Pacers recently reached a buyout agreement, allowing him to become an unrestricted free agent.
The Bad: Stop me if you've heard this before: he's a poor shooter, especially from three-point range. Although people who have seen him swear he's in great shape, sitting an entire year out, at age 31, means he might have some catching up to do in training camp no matter his destination.
The Verdict: If his character issues are indeed behind him--you'll recall his involvement in the 2004 Pacers/Pistons brawl, his participation in a barfight in downtown Indianapolis, and his being the target of a drive-by shooting (which in itself is not a crime)--if he's willing to play for the minimum, and if he's in shape, then he might be the best option on this list. You'll notice, though, the abundance of qualifiers attached to that statement. Smith is a risk-taker, sure, but he's yet to roll the dice by acquiring anyone with Tinsley's sort of reputation, which leads us to believe he won't start now. And he went on the record last year as saying Tinsley wasn't an option then.

Head back to the top.

Jacque Vaughn:

The Good: Vaughn is a tremendous passer with good offensive instincts, with a career assist rate of 24%, including 27.6% last year. And even at his advanced age--he'll turn 35 in February--he's a decent defender.
The Bad: He's coming off a season in which he shot 32% from the field in 292 total minutes. Even before that, he wasn't much of a scoring threat, as he's 8 years removed from his career-high scoring average of 6.6 points per game. The Spurs demoted him in favor of the rookie George Hill, which paid off fairly well.
The Verdict: He fits into the Carter mold as a pass-first, pass-second, shoot-third type. That San Antonio--an organization as worthy of emulation as any other in professional sports--essentially deemed him not worth playing much speaks volumes. Then again, he was last year what he'd be this year: an emergency point guard. He's not a great option for Orlando, but an okay one.

Head back to the top.

Jason Williams:

The Good: He was the starting point guard on the Miami Heat's 2006 championship team. And in spite of his reputation as a poor decision-maker--"too much French pastry," as Dick Vitale might say--he actually takes decent care of the ball.
The Bad: The man has practically nothing left to offer. I defer to Kelly Dwyer for more:

Don't try it, because I'm going to laugh in your face if you try to tell me he can make up for [his poor defense] on the other end, not when he's two years removed from shooting 38.4 percent from the floor. I'd love to see him try one more 45-foot bounce pass before riding off into the sunset, but the Knicks would be well-served to try the D-League first to round out their roster.

He's the most recognizable name on this list, sure. But if you didn't know it were him, but instead only knew that he'd turn 34 in November and that he can't shoot, you probably would dismiss him immediately.
The Verdict: With all that said, he's probably not the worst defender on this list, and is probably one of the better passers. Signing him to be the third-stringer wouldn't be an utter disaster, I don't think, but he's not the most attractive option.

Head back to the top.

It's become readily apparent that Smith won't find a perfect candidate. None of these guys is a home-run, even at a minimum salary. The ones who can shoot don't pass, the ones who can pass can't shoot, and very few of them play defense. Not a great situation, sure. Then again, Orlando's done quite well for itself this summer, and it's hardly the only team looking for point guard help. All Otis needs to do is to sign the one he feels is the best possible fit to a minimum deal. Then he can move on to that 14th roster spot, likely a big man, and call it a summer.

Why C.J. Watson is No Longer an Option for the Orlando Magic

Ben Q Rock — Tue, 21 Jul 2009 20:00:27 -0000

More photos » by Paul Connors - AP

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Not to rain on any Orlando Magic fan's parade after the all-but-official signing of small forward Matt Barnes, which you can discuss here, but we do need to explain how that signing eliminates the possibility of their signing point guard C.J. Watson to an offer sheet. An NBA source told Tania Ganguli of the Orlando Sentinel that the Magic will look at cheaper point guard options.

It is, as you might expect, a matter of money. A report by Tim Povtak of AOL FanHouse surfaced on Friday evening saying the Magic were preparing an offer sheet to tender to Watson, whose free-agent rights belong to the Golden State Warriors. Povtak said Watson could sign the offer sheet as early as the weekend, after which point the Warriors would have seven days to either match the offer, and thus retain him, or to let him join the Magic.

However, the Magic have chose Barnes over Watson, in essence. Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo! Sports reports that Barnes' deal is worth $3.2 million dollars, split evenly across two seasons, with the second season at Barnes' option. The $1.6 million comes from the mid-level exception money left over from signing Brandon Bass to a four-year deal worth $16 million--an even $4 million per year, according to Marc Stein. Orlando now has a mere $254,000 of the mid-level left to offer a free agent. That's roughly $200,000 less than the minimum salary for a player with no prior NBA experience. In short, that money will go unused.

In theory, the Magic could offer Watson a contract starting at $825,497, which is the minimum salary for a two-year veteran. Watson earned $711,517 last season, and is understandably seeking a raise. According to Marcus Thompson II of the Oakland Tribune, he rejected a one-year deal from the Philadelphia 76ers worth $2.3 million, because he wants a longer-term deal of at least 3 years. Even if we assume he'll take a slightly lower annual salary than Philadelphia offered him in order to ink a three-year deal, he probably wouldn't accept anything less than $6 million. According to Larry Coon's Salary-Cap FAQ (scroll down to the chart, just above Question 20), players signed to minimum contracts can only receive pay increases commensurate with their level of experience in the league--as opposed to some other contracts, where raises are made on a percentage basis--and can only sign for a maximum of two seasons. Thus, Watson would earn $885,120 in his second year with Orlando, Add it up, and you'll see the most he would stand to earn with Orlando is $1,710,617 over two seasons, which is less than one-third of the money he conceivably earn elsewhere, with one fewer guaranteed year. It wouldn't make sense for a player of Watson's age (25) to take such a drastic pay cut, which is why he's out of the Magic's realm of possibility.

So Orlando will go back to the drawing board, likely looking at bargain-bin veterans such as Anthony Carter, Juan Dixon, Brevin Knight, Kevin Ollie, and Jacque Vaughn in order to fill their third point guard role. Nobody else has the sort of dazzling appeal Watson--a young, three-point-shooting, foul-drawing, ace--has. But either way, Magic GM Otis Smith has addressed two dire needs this offseason, as Barnes provides competent backup at both forward positions and Brandon Bass gives the Magic a young, bruising big man to help them tangle with beefier front lines. Count the upgrade Vince Carter provides over Hedo Turkoglu and you'll see Orlando can boast an offseason as good as any other team's, at least so far. All that's left on the shopping list is a third-string point guard.

Otis doin' work, indeed.

After the jump, a look at the Magic's salary commitments for next season, presented without comment.

2009/2010 Orlando Magic Salaries, as of July 21st, 2009
Rashard Lewis	$18,010,791
Vince Carter	$16,123,250
Dwight Howard	$15,202,590
Jameer Nelson	$7,700,000
Marcin Gortat	$5,854,000
Mickael Pietrus	$5,300,000
Brandon Bass	$4,000,000
J.J. Redick	$2,839,408
Anthony Johnson	$2,062,800
Matt Barnes	$1,600,000
Ryan Anderson	$1,317,120
TOTAL	$80,009,959

No Your Links: Mike Miller and Randy Foye Are Headed to Washington

JakeTheSnake — Wed, 24 Jun 2009 14:52:00 -0000

More photos » by Mike Habermann - AP

Does this thing come with a map?

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Welcome to Washington, where journeyman guards come to congregate.

Not only did yesterday's trade leave us with oodles and oodles of guards, but it left us with guards who know their way around the NBA. Washington will be the 4th team for both Mike Miller and Randy Foye (remember, he was traded twice on draft night). In addition, you've got Caron Butler, DeShawn Stevenson and Javaris Crittenton, who have each played for three teams, Gilbert Arenas who has played for two, Juan Dixon (who is currently still on the roster) has played for four teams (including two stints in Washington), and Mike James is currently on his ninth NBA squad. At least this team won't have any problems finding good places to eat when they hit the road.

That's about the only thing that I can think of about this trade that hasn't been covered in some way, shape or form by someone already. There's a lot of great reaction and analysis on everything else from yesterday's trade and after the jump you can get a sampling of some of what people had to say about yesterday's trade.

Wizards agree to deal pick - Washington Times

They entered the offseason with a roster that featured the All-Star trio of Arenas, Butler and Jamison; a solid supporting cast of veterans; and six players under the age of 23. The Wizards remained hopeful that they could develop those six players - forwards Andray Blatche, Dominic McGuire and Pecherov, center JaVale McGee and guards Nick Young and Javaris Crittenton - to provide quality depth to their veterans, but Washington wasn't thrilled about adding even more youth to the mix. The Wizards sought to unload the injury-prone Thomas and his hefty contract at last February's trade deadline but were unable to pull off a deal. Thomas, who missed all of the 2007-08 season following heart surgery, and then was limited to 26 games this past season because of a torn MCL, was slated to make $7.35 million next season. But his contract had a $1.2 million trade kicker, which had scared teams off. The paperwork that must be finalized involves Thomas signing an agreement he won't opt out of his current deal on July 1 to pursue free agency. Thomas is expected to sign the agreement Wednesday morning.

Wizards-T-Wolves Trade Breakdown - Wizards Insider

I'm not completely sold on getting Randy Foye and Mike Miller, but I'm willing to give Ernie the initial benefit of the doubt, because if there is one area where Grunfeld has succeeded in during his time in Washington it is making shrewd deals. He landed Antawn Jamison for the No. 5 pick in 2004 and got Caron Butler for Kwame Brown a year later. This is Grunfeld's third major trade for the organization, and it yielded a former rookie of the year and sixth man of the year in Miller and a combo guard who came on strong in the second half of last season in Foye. Miller had a down year last season, but has been a capable long range shooter for most of his career. Something else to take into consideration is that with Gilbert Arenas and Caron Butler both dealing with injuries the past few seasons, Foye and Miller can step in to provide relief/insurance, if necessary. I would feel better about the deal if the Wizards had secured one of the Timberwolves' late first round picks, particulary No. 18. But I heard from a source that Minnesota wasn't going to give up that selection in this deal. The trade was agreed upon about two hours after Grunfeld held his pre-draft press conference on Tuesday. I'm sure you don't care what he had to say now, right?

Washington and Minnesota pull off a nice one - Ball Don't Lie

Washington? You just put off rebuilding. You just cashed in a year's worth of misery for, possibly, only a year's worth of Mike Miller and Randy Foye. You're deluding yourselves thinking that this is a championship (or, even with everyone healthy, a 50-win) core. I should hate this move. But, for some reason, I don't. Washington is in one of those hardly-rare positions where, though they badly (badly, badly, badly) need to rebuild, isn't going to blow things up. They're refusing reality. And if you're going to refuse reality, well, might as well have some fun with it. Might as well try to average 110 a game. Trade rumors dogged Washington's lottery selection from the beginning. And rightfully so. But don't let them tell you that this payoff isn't worth a lottery pick.

Truth About It - Snap Reaction to the Mike Miller/Randy Foye Trade

I’d like to sound like some ‘expert’ and grade this trade, but honestly can’t give it anything but an incomplete at this point. Something else must happen to balance the team. Celtics fans flipped out after they traded the 5th pick,Delonte West and Wally Szczerbiak for Ray Allen and a 2nd rounder two summers ago, but then Garnett fell into their laps and all was copacetic. No, the Wizards won’t be getting Garnett-caliber player, but the point is, don’t judge Grunfeld’s maneuvering by this single move, rather by his summer plan in totality.

Mike Wise - Cleanup Starts By Throwing Out The Leftovers

Grunfeld may not be done, either, as draft-day deals shake out. But if nothing else, he has already rid the Wizards of burdensome contracts. He also created two open roster spots by bringing in two players and trading the equivalent of four. If you're a fan of this maddening team that hadn't been able to scale Mount LeBron three straight Mays and went through real pain the past year -- season-killing injuries to Arenas and Haywood that resulted in 19 wins, three coaches in seven months and a general malaise that hadn't been seen since Abe Pollin fired Michael Jordan and started over -- you wanted last night's deal to be the start of things, a prelude to another deal that could bring a capable big man to town.

Wizards to deal #5 to the Timberwolves - DC Pro Sports Report

As for what they are giving up, it is basically the draft pick. Pecherov never got any playing time, even with all the injuries on this team and Etan Thomas was a pretty big fraction of those aforementioned injuries. Songaila also struggled with injuries, but emerged as the team's best shooter and passing big man. He didn't rebound well or play a lot of defense, but the offense looked a lot better when he was on the floor. However, for some reason Wizards coaches couldn't resist playing him wildly out of position, in the pivot, and it is just as well that he won't be around to tempt Flip Saunders. In other words, the Wizards get a starting combo guard who has improved every year in the league in Randy Foye, they get to rent Mike Miller's 3-point shooting for a year and they get to move Thomas' contract off the books. And they do all that without giving up a single player on the roster that the team needed to keep. The draft pick was the only thing of value that was lost and in this weak draft, we don't know how valuable this was. It's too early to say if this trade is lopsided -- it probably is not -- but right now I like what it does for Washington. Foye gives the team a young guard who can play either back court position and add some speed and athleticism to the lineup. It's a nice move by GM Ernie Grunfeld.

Source: Deal sends Minnesota Timberwolves' Randy Foye, Mike Miller to Washington Wizards - ESPN

The source told Katz that the Wizards expect this trade to become official Wednesday. Washington had made overtures regarding moving the No. 5 pick ever since the Wizards landed it on the draft lottery on May 19. Washington listened to offers from New York, Dallas, Phoenix and Portland but settled on a deal with Minnesota, looking for veteran perimeter help while getting rid of expiring contracts. Once the trade becomes official on Wednesday, the NBA draft board will show the Timberwolves on the clock with the fifth pick on Thursday night, not the Wizards. When trades are completed after the midday deadline on draft day, the draft board doesn't change, and teams must pick for their trade partner. The source told Katz that until the deal is officially done, Minnesota could still work a trade to get a third party involved.

Twitter / Kevin Love

ESPN should have let me break the news...haters!!!

Will Mike Miller Rise (and Shoot) Again? -- NBA FanHouse

Miller went from 12 field goal attempts per 36 minutes in his final Memphis season to just over eight in Minnesota. He lopped off a full quarter of his attempts ... to get Sebastian Telfair more looks? Sure, he became a bit of a Renaissance Man in the process, boosting his rebound and assist frequency to their highest career levels. Something tells me it was not worth it. If in order to be a better rebounder and passer Miller needs to abandon his jumper, Miller needs to stop trying to be a better rebounder and passer. That extra rebound and extra assist ain't worth the six or so points M.M. gives up. Minnesota traded for a Ray Allen but got an awful version of John Salmons. Washington needs the Ray Allen version. Leave the rebounding to Brendan Haywood and Antawn Jamison. Leave the passing to Gilbert Arenas. Just shoot, baby, and everything will be right in the House of Miller again.

Wizards get Mike Miller, Randy Foye for fifth pick in NBA draft - SI.com

It is clear from the trade that Kahn intends to rebuild his backcourt after offering his two most talented guards to Washington -- and by no coincidence, this happens to be a draft heavy with guards, and point guards in particular. For Washington, the trade is particularly intriguing. With the arrival of new coach Flip Saunders coinciding with the return from injury of point guard Gilbert Arenas and center Brendan Haywood, the Wizards are in win-now mode. This trade would deepen their backcourt with Miller becoming the likely starter at shooting guard alongside Arenas, and Foye serving as an excellent combo guard off the bench.

Wizards send T-Wolves No. 5 pick - Yahoo! Sports

The Wizards also have a plentiful supply of youngsters who are supposedly up-and-coming - Nick Young, JaVale McGee, Andray Blatche, Dominic McGuire - and are in need of more veteran poise in the locker room rather than another developing rookie. Plus the deal with the Timberwolves gives them a veteran shooter in Miller and a young combo guard in Foye, who may benefit from a change of scenery. Foye has been dogged by comparisons to Portland star Brandon Roy ever since the two were swapped on draft night in 2006. Roy developed into an All-Star and one of the best young players in the game. Foye has been solid, but not spectacular, and missed most of his second season with a knee injury. He picked up some of the scoring load when Al Jefferson went down with a knee injury in February. Foye averaged 16.3 points and 4.3 assists, but the Wolves had difficulty deciding whether to play him at point guard or shooting guard, and fans never let him forget he’s been out-performed by Roy.

Twitter / Javaris Crittenton

@WizardsExtreme I guess the trade was good. I really hate to see those guys go but as we all know this is a business. Hope it helps the team

D.C. Sports Bog - Farewell Pech, Welcome Organ Reversal Man

The trade also means the end of Pech in D.C. May you get buckets, son, wherever you wind up. I'll remember him calling Antawn Jamison "My brozer! From anozer mozer!" being nicknamed The White Hole and I'll remember him saying "I get buckets son" and "keep it gangsta son," but I'll especially remember eating a Russian dinner with him, Harvey Grant, and then-Wiz PR guy Zack Bolno in Las Vegas. An excerpt, in which Pech was discussing going to Chipotle:

"It's always so many people," he said, "and when you stand in this line, people all the time, they ask you something: 'Are you a basketball player? Can I shake your hand?'"

"Get used to it, brother," Harvey said.

"What about shake hands?" Pech asked.

"Some of them smell bad, it's difficult to give him hand." "

You shake their hand, then you go in the restroom to wash your hand," Harvey explained.

I left Vegas that summer thinking Pech might work out well for the Wiz, and would definitely work out well for the Bog. I'll miss him.

Wizards Reportedly Trading No. 5 Selection to Timberwolves -- NBA FanHouse

For Washington, the pick held little value for them, as they need to cash in on what they have now in the Big 3. They needed shooters and backup guards, and Foye and Miller fill those needs to a T. Throw in the long term financial relief and you can see the value in this for Washington, even if it's the less flashy of the two options.

We're Off To See The Willards - Wizards Trade #5 & Scrubs To Timberwolves For Mike Miller & Randy Foye

The Wizards trade Etan Thomas (good move), Oleksiy Pecherov (good move), Darius Songaila (ok move), and...the #5 Pick (DAGGER!) to the Minnesota Timberwolves for Mike Miller & Randy Foye. Bye Bye Stephen Curry...tears...No! Not Possible! Is Mike Miller the next step to a championship, or just the cheapest option available? I'll go with the latter. Actually Foye may be the better player. I fully expect the Wizards to make another deal for some kind of big man and get rid of one of the point guards. The Wiz PGs include Gilbert Arenas, Javaris Crittenton, Randy Foye, and Mike James. James and/or Javaris gotta go.

D.C. Sports Bog - Morning Bog -The Draft is Dead

My initial reaction was this: once this trade goes through, the Wiz will have no Euros on their team, and will have seven guys on the practice court who were recently in Minnesota: Foye, Miller, Mike James, Flip Saunders, and three assistants. Because the Jim Bowden theory of Single-City Midwestern Imports has worked so well in this city in the past.

Wolves trade Foye and Miller to Wizards for #5 Pick - Rip City Project

I like the trade from both standpoints. For Washington it’s a deal that allows them to compete now and gives them people who can surround their core 3. Foye is an uber upgrade over Antonio Daniels, ditto for Mike Miller over DeShawn Stevenson. For Minnesota, this kind of reminds me of the Blazers wheeling and dealing of a couple years back. It’s a great step in the rebuilding process if you ask me. This isn’t the greatest of drafts to have 4 first round picks in but they can either package them up or develop all of them because they have major needs in their backcourt and possibly adding to the Love/Jefferson big man combo.

We're Off To See The Willards - Why Nick Young & Mike James Need To Be Traded

The most likely deal in my opinion is trading Nick Young & Mike James away for a big man. Are there any teams with an excess of big men who need to get a decent backup young shooting guard? Wizards trade Nick Young & Mike James for Veteran PF, scoring not needed If teams dont' want to do that, throw in Andray Blatche and get a Veteran PF and a Center who can play 8 minutes per game. There are still no minutes for McGuire in this move. He may have to go too...

Does the East Have a New Contender? - Celtics Hub

But are they now a contender? That will be decided as much on defense as on offense. Last season, the Wizards guarded two-point jumpers at a nearly average rate but could not defend three-point shots or inside shots, according to 82games. Only the Heat, Nets and Kings allowed teams to shoot better from deep, and no one even approached the Wizards level of incompetence in defending the interior. Teams hit 65.5 percent of their inside shots against the Wizards, by far the worst rate in the league. It didn’t help that the Wizards had the fifth-worst defensive rebounding rate in the league, according to Basketball Reference. Put-backs are often pretty easy shots. This trade can’t make the ‘Zards worse at guarding the three (right?), but it leaves them awfully dependent on Haywood and two inexperienced bigs (McGee and Blatche) to guard the paint. It makes you wonder if the Wiz have another deal planned for a big man, or if they will be competing for the mid-level type big men on the market. (Mikki Moore may be available for the right price, Wiz fans). Miller and Foye both have expiring contracts (worth about $13.5 million combined), so the Wiz still have trade chips to play with even though they just unloaded Thomas’s deal. (They also managed to unload Songalia’s contract, which contains a $4.8 million player option for 2011. Nice work by Ernie Grunfeld).

N.B.A. Roundup - Spurs Acquire Jefferson From Bucks for 3 Players - NYTimes.com

Washington, which missed the playoffs this year, is positioned for a quick rebound if Gilbert Arenas returns to health. Miller is a gifted 3-point shooter. Foye will provide backcourt depth.

Washington Wizards go pedal to the metal -Hollinger

Today the Wizards agreed to a deal that sends Mike Miller and Randy Foye from Minnesota to Washington for the No. 5 pick and the flotsam otherwise known as Etan Thomas, Darius Songaila and Oleksiy Pecherov. But by adding these two players, the Wizards certainly have made themselves a fearsome offensive team. If Arenas is healthy, they could very well lead the league in offensive efficiency, and if that happens, new coach Flip Saunders just needs to coax an average defensive effort from them to win a ton of games.

Polling GSoM: Was Billy Owens a "monumental NBA bust"?

Atma Brother ONE — Mon, 22 Jun 2009 11:30:10 -0000

Over at Y! Sports Blog The Dagger they're counting down "the best college basketball players who went on to have disappointing NBA careers". As one would expect there's going to be at least one Warrior on the list. At #7 there's Billy Owens who is deemed a "monumental NBA bust" and is ridiculed for being out of the NBA by the age of 31.

Not the finest, but not a "monumental NBA bust". [via www.checkoutmycards.com]

Don't get me wrong. That trade that sent Mitch Richmond up north to Sacrapmento and broke up Run TMC is not going to be making any Dubs highlight reels anytime soon. Undoubtedly Owens was a great college player who went on to have a really disappointing NBA career- he didn't live up to the hype. But I'm not so sure calling Owens a "monumnetal NBA bust" is fair. Check his numbers over at Basketball Reference and jump for some facts and more!

FACT: The Warriors won 11 more games in Owens' rookie season (win total 55) compared to the previous season with Richmond (win total 44).

FACT: In his first season at the age of 22 Billy Owens averaged 14.3 ppg, 8.0 rpg, 2.4 apg, 0.8 blk, and 1.1 stl and made the 1991-1992 All-NBA Rookie 1st team.

FACT: ZERO players this past season averaged an all-around game that equalled or surpassed Owen's career bests of 16.5 ppg, 8.1 rpg, and 4.1 apg (16-8-4). (That's of course picking and choosing numbers, but Owens was indeed a rare talent.)

FACT: The average length of an NBA career is just a shade under 5 years. Owens doubled that with a 10 year career.

FACT: After Owens (for Ronny Seikally) and Chris Webber (for Tom Gugliotta) were traded in the fall of 1994 a depressed Latrell wrote their jersey numbers on his sneakers. (Okay I'll admit back in 1994 I wanted to do the same thing, but all my sneakers were black.)

Billy Owens drawing his usual quadruple team.

via sayhey.files.wordpress.com

Now...

Have the Warriors drafted plenty of busts over the years? YES, see Don't Bust Out! (Golden State Warriors BLOG).

Did Nellie and company screw up and make a bad trade here? YES.

Does it suck that Run TMC only lasted 2 short seasons? YES.

Does it suck that WE BELIEVE only lasted 1 short spring? YES.

Did Billy Owens fail to live up to the hype? YES.

But was Owens a "monumental bust"? I'm not so sure I buy that given the facts. Guys like Clifford Rozier, Todd Fuller, Adonal Foyle, Patrick O'Bryant, Kosta Perovic- now those are "monumental busts". Over here in Dubs land, we know a monumental bust when we see one!

Make sure to check out the rest of the ongoing bust countdown over at The Dagger. It's a great trip down memory lane right before the 2009 NBA Draft:

10- Danny Ferry: It's hilarious how a guy who tried to circumvent the NBA Draft order is now a GM of a team. Another reason for LeBron to go to NY the first chance he gets!
9- Adam Morrison: Let's just say he really doesn't need to do all that much to win the 2009-2010 NBA Most Improved Player.
8- J.R. Reid: This is hilarious...

It's sort of sad that Reid is probably best remembered now as the butt of a frequent joke from the Cameron Crazies. Those so-called clever fans used to hold up signs that said "J.R. Can't Reid", a practice that eventually incensed Dean Smith so much that he publicly called out the Duke students and pointed out that Reid had higher SAT scores than Danny Ferry and Christian Laettner. Unfortunately, all three had similarly disappointing NBA careers.
7- Billy Owens: At least the man had low expectations...

Owens didn't sign with Sacramento and forced his trade to Golden State
Quite the bargaining power- not signing with Sac, but landing up in GSW. This might be the first and only time someone "forced" a trade to the Golden State Warriors. For this, Owens should never be forgotten by the "Unstoppably Baby!" people.
6- Juan Dixon: Looks like his 2 seconds of fame are up.
5- Lionel Simmons: The L-Train got banged up.

Poll

Was Billy Owens a "monumental NBA bust"?

YES: B-U-S-T

311 votes

NO: Don't Believe the Hype!

173 votes

484 votes | Poll has closed

2008/09 Player Evaluation: Juan Dixon

Mike Prada — Fri, 29 May 2009 16:47:28 -0000

STATS

Per-game: 16.3 minutes, 5.2 points, 1.3 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 1.4 turnovers

Per-36 minutes: 11.5 points, 3.0 rebounds, 5.2 assists, 3.1 turnovers

Percentages: 39.5 FG%, 33.3 3PT%, 87.2 FT%, 44.3 eFG%, 47.8% TS%

Advanced (explanations): 9.3 PER, 22.7 AST%, 20.4 TO%, 19.1 UsgR, 92 ORtg, 114 DRtg, -0.5 WSAA (win score above average).

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Mike Prada: D.C. area basketball fans love to love Juan Dixon for what he did to bring Maryland to a title in 2002. I understand and I empathize with this, because I was right there with those fans celebrating. But at a certain point, we need to see Dixon not as a Final Four hero, but rather as an exceedingly mediocre professional basketball player that probably isn’t good enough to play in this league. This disastrous past season is only further proof of that.

With the injury to Gilbert Arenas, the Wizards suddenly needed guards, but Juan Dixon was not the type of guy they should have gone after. Dixon has a history of being an undersized combo guard who does not have point guard skills. True, his assist percentage picked up considerably in 2007/08, but so did his turnover percentage, showing that the only thing that changed with Dixon’s game is the number of dribbles he took to make a play. The "pure point" question would not have mattered as much if Dixon was an efficient scorer, but he’s never been. His career-best true shooting percentage for a season was a mediocre 51.8 percent in 2004/05, his last year with the Wizards before this season.

The Wizards were essentially getting a low-percentage gunner who needs the ball in his hands to succeed. Not exactly a prototype player to have. Making matters worse, of course, was the presence of Nick Young, a similar type of player who already was more efficient and less turnover-prone than Dixon. I suppose the hope was that Juan’s "professionalism" and determination would rub off on Young and push Young to work harder to keep his rotation spot. The problem is that it’s very hard to convince Young to become less of a one-on-one inefficient chucker when his potential replacement is exactly that.

Despite all this, Juan was actually pretty solid during the first two months of the season. He didn’t shoot well in November (36 percent) but he did post an outstanding 3-1 assist-to-turnover ratio, proving that he maybe could be a quasi-point guard. Then, in December, his shot returned, as his field goal percentage jumped all the way up to 48 percent. But it was all fools gold. Dixon’s last four months of the season were awful, as he couldn’t buy a bucket and was a turnover machine. We all remember the game against Toronto where he threw away that pass when Ed Tapscott was trying to call a timeout, but that was only the last part of a steady fall.

The numbers on Dixon are pretty staggering. He turned it over on a ridiculous 20.4 percent of his possessions, which is insane. One of every five ~~Wizards~~ possessions ended by Dixon was a turnover. He shot a career-low eFG% (save for his rookie year) and had a career-low PER. He did use fewer possessions, to be sure, but it sure didn’t seem like it. He was, deservingly, on the bench during most of the season.

The Wizards signed him hoping his practice habits would rub off more than his on-court habits. That’s proven to be a foolish thought; young players need to see proof of proper preparation rather than just seeing proper preparation. That’s particularly true of the Wizards’ young players, who aren’t exactly prototypical self-starters.

Dixon’s contact is up and the Wizards have 14 players already under contract, so he probably won’t be back here. I hope it all works out well for Juan Dixon, but I honestly doubt he’ll get another shot in this league. Unfortunate, of course, but that’s how it goes sometimes. The Wizards really never owed him extra shots anyway.

JakeTheSnake: I have a love-hate relationship with Juan Dixon. I'm not a Terrapins fan so I could care less when people yammer on about his days at Maryland, but I have a great amount of respect for the guy's effort. Maybe his relative lack of talent makes his effort more apparent to my eye, but for whatever reason his effort always sticks out to me. If this was elementary school and I could just give him a good grade for outstanding effort, I would.

But as we all know, in a work market as competitive as the NBA, you can't get by on effort alone. And as apparent as it was that Juan Dixon was trying his hardest to play well out there, it was just as clear that he's just not an NBA calibur player anymore. Over his 7 seasons in the NBA, he's been able to squeeze every last drop of ability he could from his body and make a pretty good living doing it, but I just don't see how anyone would sign him this off-season.

I don't think I need to remind anyone about what happens when he tries to bring the ball up the court (see above video), his shooting percentage isn't great, and he turns the ball over way too much. The defense was a little bit better with him on the court, despite the fact he's a bit of a tweener, but it doesn't make up for his shortcomings on the offensive end.

He's a nice guy, and I wish him well, but I think Juan Dixon is going to learn this off-season that effort alone can only take you so far in this league.

Truthaboutit: Juan Dixon seemingly fell into the right opportunity last year ... well, for him, not the Wizards. Gilbert Arenas goes down and signing Dixon, local kid made good via prevailing under abysmal childhood circumstances and a Maryland Terrapins national championship, seemed the perfect fit.

Dixon knew the system, having previously played for the Wiz under Eddie Jordan, and would presumably provide the same veteran guard skills and bench scoring punch that was vacated by Roger Mason, Jr. (or not really).

Unfortunately, so went the season, so went Dixon's recognizable contributions to the team. His play, when it saw the court, was inconsistent, and his lack of veteran poise drew the ire of many on Bullets Forever, especially after an embarrassing five turnover effort in a late season loss against Toronto. What did we expect from the guy? Well, we kind of expected better.

But when he wasn't experiencing a nagging injuring, Dixon never knew if he'd be playing from one night to the next. The were faint grumblings about playing time, both from Dixon desiring more and from some fans wanting less. Ed Tapscott had to speak with him about his minutes prior to an early December matchup with Chicago.

I can hardly blame Dixon for getting testy about his run. The Wizards were essentially the last chance for a soon-to-be 31-year old to get a swan song NBA contract. But he just wasn't able dispel the preconceived negative aspects of his game, unreliable offensive initiation and non-existent defense.

His sporadic play was not a large blemish on the season, rather a product of the unfortunate environment. 2008-09 Dixon, which resulted in his career low PER, will just be a blip on the franchise's historical radar.

Juan Dixon has been a better than expected human being, much less his unheralded success in basketball, college and pro. He came in, tried with good intentions, but things just didn't work out.

We thank Juan for his contributions. We thank him for being the always-ready consummate vet. He could very well prove me wrong, but I'd estimate that he plays overseas for a couple of years before putting the game of basketball behind him, moving on to bigger and better things, such as community outreach/service, which would be right up his alley.

Rook6980: I remember the discussions we were having in Training Camp when it came down to keeping either Juan Dixon or DeMarr Johnson for the 15th and final spot on the roster. Little did we know then that Juan would play 16 minutes a game for 50 games for an injury decimated team.

Juan is a tough, hard-nosed competitor and he suffered through a very strange year. He was used extensively in November, averaging just over 19 minutes per game. Then he rode the pine. He got some time for 6 games in December. Then he sat the pine again. He was called upon a bit in the early part of February for a few games. Then he sat the pine. Finally, he played significant minutes in the last 5 games of the year. During the Tapscott regime, if you weren't an "All-Star Forward", your minutes were subject to whim and chance.

Even given the weird way in which he was used (and not used), Juan had a sub-par Juan Dixon year. Statistically, this was his worst year as a Pro. His shooting percentages suffered, especially shooting 3-pointers, but might be expected considering the way he was used. His assists were up a bit, but his scoring was down and he turned the ball over too much. He ended up with the lowest PER of his career.

But even with the difficulties regarding steady playing time; and regardless if he was sitting on the bench for 4 or 5 games in a row, or playing more than 20 minutes a game, Juan always stayed ready, focused and into the game. Juan Dixon was a real Professional, with a Capital "P".

With the Wizard's roster and Tax situation, I doubt Juan will be back for a 5th season; but let's hope he lands somewhere that can use his services.

Thanks for the memories Juan.