SB Nation - Darius Miles

AI Meets With Sixers; Bobcats Looking for Big Man Help

David Arnott — Mon, 30 Nov 2009 22:01:03 -0000

Two developing stories are popping up today that deserve some attention. First, Allen Iverson has reportedly met with Sixers management. I'm generally concerned about AI as a fan of the league, but more specifically concerned with his plans because he and Larry Brown seem to have a professional relationship without closure. Bringing in AI won't further any of our goals, so I hope all this AI commentary that Brown's doing really is just his way of encouraging Iverson to keep plugging away and is not his way of hinting to others in the Bobcats brass that they need to move one of the other guards to make room for him.

Second, speaking of the front office, Adrian Wojnarowski's Twitter feed has this nugget:

Golden State and Charlotte front office's still scouring landscape for bigs, league execs say, but struggling to find do-able deals.

(Via GSoM)

What does that mean? I have no idea. If we're going to trade Diop for a power forward type, who could we possibly get, considering Diop's got one of the worst contracts in the league? Really, if we're looking for big man help, there's an entire minor league with semi-competent to competent big men to fill out the rotation. ~~This is what ten-day contracts are for!~~ (Ten-day contracts can't be offered yet, so...) Or, other than the Robert Swifts and Rob Kurzes and Rod Bensons of the world, they could seek out any of the freely available guys who are floating out there, hoping against hope for a workout or fresh start with an NBA team. Mark Blount is persona non grata in Timberwolf land. Darius Miles might have something left in the tank. There are options outside of making a trade.

Spoiler Alert: Me and My Memphis Grizzlies

djturtleface — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 03:38:16 -0000

More photos » by Steve Helber - AP

Memphians are flocking to see their new but injured superstar Allen Iverson, but as long as they temper their expectations they should see a whole lot more than A.I. from this young team. (AP Photo/Steve Helber)

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The Memphis Grizzlies were supposed to be the final 'Spoiler Alert' -- saving best for last or something like that. But they've ended up right here, pretty much smack dab in the middle of the lineup. I'd like to note that I'm still very much committed to finishing the series, problem is that I won't be around to do it. Learn why and read the longest freaking Memphis Grizzlies preview on the internets over the jump.

On Thursday your favorite Grizzlies blogger will be on a long flight to the Balkans for an in-semester college study abroad. That's why I'll be doing the Grizzlies preview early, I don't want to just leave all my small but hardy fanbase out in the cold. And I should still be around on occasion, posting periodically, albeit likely in brief spurts. The reality of the matter, however, is that the bulk of content will be either automated or run by written by a new partner.

Said new partner isn't written in stone, but it should be someone that you all are now somewhat familiar with from past posts. He'll do a great job, and should be around even after my return, which will be November 5th -- just five games into the season and one day before a contest against the NBA Champion Lakers.

Glad to have that out of the way. Now let's get down to business -- here is your 2009-2010 Memphis Grizzlies preview in extended 'Spoiler Alert' format.

Preview

The funny thing about a stick of dynamite is that it pretty much always looks like it's ready to explode. Keep that bit of advice in mind as you continue to read.

The Memphis Grizzlies made two different types of additions this season. First, the rookies. The Grizzlies drafted Hasheem Thabeet, who I've openly lamented and insulted in the past and warmed up to in the now, second overall, then went on to take forwards DeMarre Carroll and Sam Young with their next two picks. I believe the draft was one of the best in the NBA despite a pretty weak class, and the Carroll-Young combo has the potential to be the Grizzlies defense-offense bench of the future.

The second set of acquisitions were a tad bit more controversial, and by a tad bit I mean they were damn near as controversial as it gets in the NBA. First the Grizzlies traded Darko Milicic for Quentin Richardson, who then went on a merry-go-round through the NBA, for Zach Randolph. And we all know Zach Randolph. Then the Grizzlies signed walking media magnet Allen Iverson, who's been dancing between wise veteran, distraction, and too hurt to know what the hell he actually is.

Playing with Zach Randolph is a tad bit like playing with a safety valve that's a tiny bit too wide -- as in it sucks everything in and spits it straight back out. You could feed Randolph with every possession and he would use every single one if you wanted him too, and he'd probably shoot about 45% from the field while doing it. Problem is you can't really win many basketball games that way.

And we have no idea what playing with Allen Iverson is like. It used to be pretty cool if you were Eric Snow and hated shooting. Chances are that it's not so cool if you're O.J. Mayo, Rudy Gay, or Zach Randolph, who all like to get involved in the offense, which means shoot the ball every chance they get. Last season it was a little more like playing with an angry wasp with no stinger. He still looked menacing, but was more of an annoyance then a legitimate threat.

As far as losses go, the Memphis Grizzlies gave away one of their best players in terms of PER in Hakim Warrick. This was a stupid loss. There were no minutes around for Warrick, but he is a talent with legitimate value. You have to hold onto him and make a trade. Otherwise there were no other losses of great importance -- Quinton Ross, Darius Miles, and Greg Buckner all made ignominious exits, thanks for nothing ya'll.

Fantasy Preview

Breakout- Nobody- With Zach Randolph stealing rebounds from Marc Gasol, and Hasheem Thabeet stealing some time, I don't see a second year breakout. With Iverson stealing isolation looks from O.J. and Rudy, I don't see either meaningfully increasing their statistics. And with both A.I. and O.J. clamoring to bring it up the floor because they too are "point guards," I don't see Mike Conley being much better than an end of the roster contributor.

Bust- Rudy Gay, Allen Iverson- Don't let anyone fool you, I don't see either of these players putting up significantly better stats than they did last season, but both will get drafted ahead of their position on the player rater at the end of the season. The Grizzlies just might boast five fantasy worthy guys, but none of them look to be better than a top 40 player, which isn't good news for owners.

Useful- O.J. Mayo, Zach Randolph, and Mike Conley- Again don't look for a breakout. If Randolph is healthy he could, theoretically, break the top 50, and he's usually great trade bait for less wise fantasy players who salivate over the 20-10 points and rebounds. That makes him draftable, but not a real target. Look for O.J. Mayo to basically duplicate his rookie season stats in a per 36 sense, with a potential boost in assists and field goal percentage. The problem is that fantasy stats aren't calculated by per 36, which means that a minutes drop will offset any gains and might actually reduce his value. Finally Mike Conley seemed poised to break out this season, but Iverson is almost undoubtedly going to depress his value.

Offensively

The Grizzlies are stacked with weapons on offense. The problem is that none of them are standouts. Allen Iverson used to be, Rudy Gay was supposed to be, Zach Randolph thinks he is, and O.J. Mayo isn't there yet. So while the Grizzlies have a whole bunch of scorer, they also have a whole bunch of players who are probably better suited to be second or third options, or a spark-plug off the bench.

Now this approach has worked in the past, for instance on the Pistons of yore. With Rip Hamilton, Chauncey Billups, Rasheed Wallace, and Tayshaun Prince (in order of offensive importance) the Pistons rode a bunch of solid offensive players to dominating the Eastern Conference during the pre-James to early-James era. The difference is that the Pistons were expertly coached and had a near legendary floor general in Billups.

Mike Conley might be a better passer than Billups, but he's certainly not better at commanding the game. For this approach to be successful somebody is going to have to assert themselves as the player who decides who shoots. Allen Iverson is too prone to calling his own number, O.J. Mayo isn't an NBA point yet, and again Mike Conley won't be in the position to take control.

So despite having a ton of weapons, a realistic take means that the Grizzlies will probably struggle with chemistry on offense all season. I still like them to outplay their offense last season, which was borderline atrocious, but the pundits are probably right in assuming that this team won't maximize their talents. "Skill overlap" is the buzz phrase for this season's Grizzlies, who will commonly have too many isolation players on the floor at any given time during the season.

And this problem might only be compounded by running the fast break offense. This strategy typically requires a steady hand at both point and shooting guard. The Grizzlies have that, but Rudy Gay is really their only finisher. Breaking teams definitely are better off with athleticism at both forward slots, and maybe even with a bit at center for good measure. Running constantly will get the fans out of their seats and get the Grizzlies a bunch more points this season, but I'm not convinced that their efficiency will benefit significantly.

Defensively

This is not an area where the Grizzlies will have to worry about skill overlap. The Grizzlies really have a limited amount of defensive talent, especially in their starting unit. Mike Conley is acceptable, O.J. Mayo is generally considered below average with potential, Rudy Gay is in the same situation, Zach Randolph is known to be especially useless on defense, and Marc Gasol is definitely below average for a starter. This unit is really quite bad defensively, though they should rebound well.

The second unit is better balanced. DeMarre Carroll has shown extreme willingness to play tough as nails, Sam Young is acceptable, Darrell Arthur brings energy but is limited technically, and Hasheem Thabeet somehow became an underrated defender despite being drafted solely as a defensive stopper. Both Iverson and Marcus Williams are question marks, but should be pretty decent. Unlike the first team, this unit has capable stoppers, but will struggle on the boards.

But the funny thing about this defense is that it could go both ways, particularly if the Grizzlies stick to their plan of running the floor. If you think back to the 'We Believe' Golden State Warriors, they similarly had a team of sub-par defenders who oftentimes looked lost and helpless. But counter-intuitively they were really a decent defensive team, mainly because they rebounded and gambled on steals that turned into very, very easy offense. If the Grizzlies follow this model they could be a surprisingly efficient defensive team.

Predictions

ESPN: 25-57, Hollinger 27-55: Are you surprised that ESPN isn't high on this team? They're not exactly the image of stability or reliability. You see experts don't like to take many huge chances -- perhaps rightly so, because they can't really be blamed for it with this Grizzlies team. Yes, yes, they're being particularly harsh, but they do have a point. It isn't often that a bunch of unproven misfits come together and make a big splash in there first season.

Still don't they have to make a bigger splash then this? Thinking back to the dynamite metaphor, by definition an explosion has to create some noise, right? I think so. This team barely lost anything in the offseason -- failing to trade Hakim Warrick was more of a no gain than an actual loss since he would have created a major logjam for Sam Young, Darrell Arthur, and DeMarre Carroll. I mean, really, how could this team have only added between one and three wins?

Sometimes I feel like the experts spend so much time watching the good teams that they lose perspective on just how bad your team needs to be to only win 27 games. Last year the Grizzlies barely had three NBA caliber starters. They had Mike Conley and Kyle Lowry in a platoon, both playing fairly effectively but providing no leadership. They had Rudy Gay and O.J. Mayo; these two were starters, but aren't ready to be focal points of an offense, and certainly aren't ready to face consistent double teaming. Darrell Arthur was not a starting caliber player. Marc Gasol was solid on offense and decent rebounding, but useless defensively.

This season Conley, Mayo, Gay, and Gasol have all not only matured but also improved tangibly. Conley clearly shoots better. Mayo is moving the ball more often, though he's turning it over too often. Rudy Gay is stronger and better prepared to drive consistently, which is necessary for a team's best slasher. Marc Gasol dropped weight, presumably to play the pick and roll better.

And as bad as Zach Randolph can be at times, there's no way he's worse than Arthur was on either end of the floor last season, and there is no way he's as physically incapable of defending as Hakim Warrick. He isn't great and his stats are inflated well over his actual value, but he's much better than what the Grizzlies had. Last season the Grizzlies didn't have much in the way of guard play off the bench -- even Marko Jaric had to play. This season A.I. might fill too much need, but at least he's filling needs.

I don't think me or any other Grizzlies fan is asking for the world here; I'm asking for respectability. I don't want to see the other team's scrubs beating our starters at the end of games. I don't want to see decent play for half a game followed by a blowout third and fourth quarter; I want to see a team that is trying to win.

And I think that I'll be rewarded for my dedication. This season's Grizzlies don't even need to climb all the way into the playoffs, but they need to get their foot on the first rung of the ladder. This season's Grizzlies will be a stick of dynamite in both senses. Some nights they'll look god awful, other nights explosive, most nights they'll just look like themselves -- mostly dormant but constantly dangerous.

My Predictions: 34-48

Poll

How many games will the Grizzlies win this season?

Under 20 wins.

13 votes

Between 20 and 27 wins.

24 votes

Between 28 and 34 wins.

40 votes

Between 35 an and 42 wins.

43 votes

Between 42 and 48 wins.

12 votes

Over 48 wins.

9 votes

141 votes | Poll has closed

Fat Chance?

Jeff Clark — Sun, 11 Oct 2009 02:02:20 -0000

Mike fills out a jersey.

View full size photo »

My first thought upon hearing that Michael Sweetney was invited to camp was "why?" Actually, my very first thought was "hey, didn't he eat himself out of the league?" Then I wondered if we had room for him on the roster. Honestly, I could throw in about 15 different fat jokes right there, but that would be far too easy.

The point is, the team worked hard this offseason to bring in frontcourt depth. Wallace, Baby, Williams, and Scal will back up KG and Perk. That seems pretty solid. With Lester signed, the team has 15 contracts. If Sweetney actually made the team, someone would have to be cut or traded. Is he worth that? If so, who goes?

It is far too soon to tell if he's really got a shot, but there are some positive signs for Michael. In the first preseason game, he scored 10 points in just 8 minutes (he also racked up 5 fouls - slow feet maybe?). He followed that up by scoring 2 points and grabbing 2 rebounds in the second game (in just over 4 minutes). Will he get more chances in the upcoming games?

Here are some quotes from Doc that would at least give him some encouragement.

"He's an NBA player," Rivers said. "There's no doubt about it. I mean, he has to get in better shape. We'll see how that goes. He's working at it."

Stay-on-the-Celtic-roster skills?

"There's a place for everybody - whoever earns it," Rivers said before the C's second exhibition game. "I mean, we would obviously have to do something to keep him, but that's up to him to make us want to do that."

The guy clearly has some basketball talent. He's a typical Ainge camp invite in that he's got more upside than say an undrafted rookie. Like Darius Miles last year, he has to get back into playing shape after an extended absence. The fact that he's not yet in good enough shape doesn't bode well, but (as Celtics Hub points out) there's always the option of adding him to the roster and sending him to the D-League to get into shape for later in the year.

I'm still very skeptical of his chances. If Ainge makes any trades that free up a roster spot, he's always an option. If the frontcourt has any additional injury issues, he's an option for some added depth. But I don't think I'd outright cut anyone on the roster in favor of him.

(Cap) Space, The Final Frontier

Dave — Fri, 02 Oct 2009 06:56:41 -0000

As Ben foreshadowed in his piece below, in response to a training camp conversation we're going to update the Blazers' salary cap status and possibilities today. This is not to infer that a trade is any more or less likely than it was yesterday. But trading remains a possibility as the season starts so we want to cover it. As always in these matters we are indebted to our friend Storyteller and his excellent site.

As of this moment the Blazers have no salary cap space to speak of. Summer hasn't officially ended yet and during the summer months Portland's three Euro-prospects (Klaver, Koponen, and Freeland) create holds on the salary cap. With everybody else in place and Darius Miles a $9,000,000 albatross shadowing the Blazers' ship Portland's well is dry. Any trade made before the start of the season will have to conform to normal standards with no wiggle room.

However when the clock strikes twelve our European Cinderellas will flee the ball, leaving behind glass slippers and a cap space footprint of about $1.9 million. Theoretically the Blazers can preserve that much cap space to facilitate trades going into the season.

The only hitch in the giddy-up is the infamous 15^th roster spot. Right now the Blazers haven't committed to anybody filling that space so there's no cap imprint associated with it. As soon as Portland decides to carry that 15^th player his salary goes on the cap. The Blazers are looking at several players but the most likely two seem to be Ime Udoka and Jarron Collins. As BlazerFanSince1970 kindly pointed out in the comments below, veteran minimum contracts weigh against the cap at slightly above $800,000. That would put the Blazers down to $1.1 million in cap space. However any trade that potentially brings a team over the cap functions as an over-the-cap trade, invoking the 125%+100K rule we're all familiar with. Therefore if Portland ends up signing a 15th man the cap space will become superfluous in many situations. The 125%+100K will give more than $1.1 million in leeway unless Portland trades just a single player straight up and that player makes less than $4 million per year.

But leaving aside that bit of confusion, the Blazers will basically have between $1.1 million and $1.9 million in cap space to trade with when the season begins. This amount can be added to a player's salary to facilitate a (slightly) lopsided deal.

It would be impossible to detail all of the trade possibilities that would fit under these parameters so we'll contain ourselves to the most likely. Without prejudice against them as players or people, it seems clear that Steve Blake, Travis Outlaw, and Jerryd Bayless are the most obvious candidates to move. Blake and Outlaw have expiring contracts. Bayless is talented, jammed up, and probably unhappy. Here are the salaries in question:

Blake $4.0 million
Outlaw $3.6 million
Bayless $2.1 million

From this we can derive a range of possibilities. The minimum--just trading Bayless plus using the minimum cap space available--yields a figure of $3.2 million. (Though obviously figures below $2 million are also a possibility utilizing just the Bayless contract. The Blazers aren't required to use the extra space.) The maximum practical figure--combining Blake and Outlaw with the most potential space available--gives us $9.5 million. As you can see, that's quite a gap. And the $9.5 million isn't far-fetched either. A team taking Blake, Outlaw, and the cap space would see the entire amount come off of its cap at the end of the season.

Several of the players rumored to be available at last year's trade deadline fall within these parameters. Note that we're strictly talking salary here, not equitable talent exchange or desirability for the Blazers. Charlotte's Gerald Wallace makes $9.5 million as does Chicago's Kirk Hinrich. Golden State's Stephen Jackson makes $7.7 million. Only Al Jefferson on Minnesota lies outside this range. We could get Hedo Turkoglu back, as he makes $9 million. Utah's Carlos Boozer lies outside the range unless you throw in significant extra players. Obviously far less famous (and probably more suitable) names are also possibilities. This list just reinforces the impression that not all was lost with the expiring of Raef LaFrentz's Expiring Contract.

So what will the Blazers be doing with this money? Likely nothing at first. The smart move here is to watch for teams that hoped to excel but instead fall flat. At least one or two teams around the league will see their fortunes change in the first months of the season and will begin to think about rebuilding instead of playing expensive, losing hands. That's where Portland can come in with the offer of a little bit of young talent (more than a little if you want to consider some other players on the roster as available) or a lot of salary relief. Those deals don't always go through but the possibility is there.

The Blazers' roster is closer than ever to its settled form but it's not quite there yet. We're not through the trade window and the Blazers have reasonably strong cards left to play. We'll see what happens.

--Dave (blazersub@yahoo.com)

With these Rockets, there is no weakest link

Tom Martin — Sat, 15 Aug 2009 02:21:54 -0000

There are some blatantly idiotic basketball players out there. As far as I can tell, none of them are Houston Rockets.

Under "idiotic", you can find a host of matching characteristics. Selfish, greedy, demanding, Darius Miles, indifferent, etc. And then there are those who are just idiotic, who lack a true basketball intelligence. Ron Artest may or may not be on that list - I can't decide if his defensive ability bumps him off.

Look at the Rockets roster. It's not going to win an NBA street-ball championship, but it will do a number of things that make sense for the team. Zach Randolph's pull-up threes do not make sense. Al Harrington's low conversion rates do not make sense. Stephon Marbury's overall selfishness does not make sense. And Kenny Thomas doesn't make sense in any way whatsoever.

Thus, none of these players are Houston Rockets. Credit our front office for that.

Speaking of the boys upstairs, all too often do people overuse the word "efficiency" when noting how Morey and Co. have built this roster. Yes, the Rockets would like efficient players. Statistically, it makes sense to have as many efficient players as possible. But what exactly does that mean?

I don't know a whole lot about basketball statistics, but I can tell you what the word "efficient" means, and then go from there. And don't skip out on reading the definition below, because while yes, it is an extremely generic move on my part, I want you to find a parallel between what the definition says and how any Houston Rocket plays the game of basketball.

From Webster's:

1. Being effective without wasting time or effort or expense...

2. Able to accomplish a purpose; functioning effectively...

Being effective without wasting...what? Wasting possessions, perhaps? Or how about wasting energy? Whatever the Rockets don't waste, it makes them efficient. They get from point A to point B on a straighter line than a good chunk of NBA players. Their variance is much, much smaller.

Oddly enough, you can say this about nearly every player on the team. Talk about getting your way as a general manager. Normally, a GM can target a few player-types that he wants, not an entire 12-man roster.

Part two states that being efficient leads to the accomplishment of a purpose. Not a goal, but a purpose. The franchise hasn't accomplished its goal (a championship), but, currently, each Rocket does a great job of accomplishing a purpose, by filling a role. Being efficient is to accept a role and do the best you can in that role. If the purpose of each role is fulfilled, the ultimate goal will be accomplished. You may now refer to me as "Socrates."

I do think that "efficient" is often wrongly used instead of "smart" or "unselfish." Give these Rockets some credit - don't simply call them efficient. How about noting how unselfish Chuck Hayes is by committing 100% of his work to defense and rebounding? Or how smart a defender Shane Battier is? Or how smart Kyle Lowry is by attacking and getting to the free throw line? Or how determined Luis Scola is to win every lose ball or long rebound? None of these players play idiotic basketball. Not one.

We'll try a new word: commitment. With idiots on a team, collective commitment is minimized. With these Rockets, however, there is a rare sense of commitment and team-first play. They just want to win, and they're smart enough to realize what it will take from each of them. Some efficient thinking, don't you think?

In that sense, we've got a leg up on everyone else.

Post-article disclaimer: We're assuming the best from David Andersen.

Taking Stock of a Wild July 1

Jeff Clark — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 00:46:35 -0000

More photos » by Charles Krupa - AP

Is help on the way?

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As expected, July 1st was much more eventful than draft night. Now that the quiet period has been lifted, we're getting rumor after rumor and breathless updates on everything Rasheed Wallace is doing. I think I can understand where Ainge is going with all this, but that doesn't necessarily mean I like it.

The Need For Sheed

The big news of the day is that the Celtics are reportedly making a huge push to show Rasheed Wallace the love and recruit him to Boston for the MLE. It isn't clear how many years the Celtics are willing to commit. I would imagine it isn't very many given his age, Ainge's aversion to long term deals, and the mere fact that we have to make such an effort to get him to sign with us instead of another team that also has the MLE to offer.

I get why they are shooting for Sheed. He's probably the most talented guy that they can reasonably get for the MLE without stretching the contract out several years. This is classic value shopping. Besides, he fills a very real need and would seem to fit in perfectly to our system that asks big men to play defense and stretch the floor with shooting. I just wish it didn't have to be Sheed. I'll probably grow to like him but I still have a bad taste in my mouth about him that isn't going away until I see him win some games for us. Even then, I'm pretty sure I'll have a nagging feeling that he'll end up hurting us at some point.

Say It Ain't So Powe

The other big news was the revelation that Powe doesn't appear to be in the Celtics plans going forward. This I'm much more disappointed about. I understand declining to give him a qualifying offer because that's guaranteed money. My thinking all along was that they would give him a partially-guaranteed contract and perhaps even one that had team options for future years. Instead they told him "Good luck with another team" and explained that they couldn't tie up a roster spot on him.

I'm sorry but ...what? Last year they tied up a roster spot on Sam Cassell (cutting Darius Miles in the process) so that he could be an extra assistant coach. You mean to tell me the 58th pick in the draft or Gabe Pruitt have earned a spot over him? Don't we need more depth in the frontcourt?

And that doesn't even take into account his personality. We need more Leon Powes in this world and on this team, not less. It was bad enough losing Ryan Gomes and Delonte West but at least we got something for those guys. Leon Powe is pretty much the definition of a class act and he had a direct impact on beating up the Lakers in the Finals last year.

I understand that Ainge is focused on the bottom line, but losing him cuts to the bone.

Assorted Other Stuff

Robert Swift makes sense to me as another low-risk, high-upside move. Worst case is Patrick O'Bryant. Best case is a decent 7 footer off the bench. He'll have an unpaid tryout during the Summer League. I'm willing to bet he'll be on the roster by training camp.
Can't hurt to give Mike Sweet-tooth a shot too, but I'm much less optimistic about his chances.
Sounds like the Celtics are looking at Grant Hill and Anthony Parker as options to back up Pierce. No surprises there. Hill likes it in Phoenix and Parker could probably get more money overseas, but maybe one of them will take a shot at a title with us.
Thankfully Eddie House is back for another year. He knows his role and plays it well.
Not sure what to make about the prospect of Marbury re-signing. He didn't exactly impress in his short stay last year. His attitude seems to be in the right place and he still has talent, but can his body still do what he used to be able to do? We'll see.
The Pistons signed up for Charlie V and Ben Gordon. Not sure if that was worth dumping Billups for, but whatever.
After we (presumably) sign Rasheed and maybe one other player, I imagine Danny will largely sit back and see which free agents don't get big money and have to settle for a shot at a ring. Baby is in that group.

Interesting mixed bag of a first day. But one day does not an offseason make. We'll see if we're in better shape at the end of the summer than we are now.

If You Think This Draft Is Bad...

Jeff Clark — Thu, 25 Jun 2009 18:08:31 -0000

Before KG and Gerald Green, there was another #5

View full size photo »

...just look back at the 2000 draft. That's what I did last night while flipping through my copy of Macrophenomenal Pro Basketball Almanac (free plug).

In it, Free Darko details each pick looking back several years later. Sadly there's no content online but I can tell you that the best guys from that draft are actually coming back up in the news these days.

Hedo Turkoglu is the creme of the crop and he took years to develop to what he is now (one of the top free agents on the market). He lasted until pick 16 and there wasn't much ahead of him. Another decent guy out of that draft, Mike Miller, just got traded (he was pick 5). Other than that, you've got Jamal Crawford, Quinten Richardson, and Etan Thomas (all traded or soon to be moved) plus Joel Przybilla and that's about it.

There were phenomenal busts like Stromile Swift and Marcus Fizer. Flameout careers like Kenyon Martin and Darius Miles. And of course who could forget Jerome Moiso?

I tell you what. If this year is anywhere as bad as that year, it is a very good year indeed to have no picks in the first round.

For fun, here's another look back at 2000.

Open Thread II: 2009 NBA Draft Lottery- Welcome to the 2009 Playoffs Warriors fans!

Atma Brother ONE — Tue, 19 May 2009 07:15:10 -0000

UPDATE (4:06 pm): Originally posted on May 19, 2009 12:15 AM PDT. Bumped up for the big show, but you better believe it's going back down if the Warriors fall to #10. Whether the Warriors land the #1 pick or slip 3 spots- remember GSoM is a family show!

----------------

How's this for dedication? We had an open thread up for today's big event TWO whole months in advance!

It's playoff time in the Bay! It's time for our annual installment of the NBA Lottery.

Photo: Warriors.com

After the jump a look at the 7 different possible scenarios for the Warriors this afternoon and how they've worked out the past 10 years for the teams drafting in those respective slots.

Odds via Wikipedia

#1 PICK (4.3% chance): A dream come true.

Hey you know GSoM did win the 2009 NBA Blogger Draft lottery, so maybe our luck will continue. Blake Griffin is the consensus #1 overall pick and I doubt the Warriors deviate from the norm here. Griffin would be a god-send and looks like a real deal franchise player.

Here's the last 10 #1 overall picks:

2008: Derrick Rose (Chicago Bulls)
2007: Greg Oden (Portland TrailBlazers)
2006: Andrea Bargnani (Toronto Raptors)
2005: Andrew Bogut (Milwaukee Bucks)
2004: Dwight Howard (Orlando Magic)
2003: LeBron James (Cleveland Cavaliers)
2002: Yao Ming (Houston Rockets)
2001: Kwame Brown (Washington Wizards)- BUST
2000: Kenyon Martin (New Jersey Nets)
1999: Elton Brand (Chicago Bulls)

#2 PICK (4.9% chance): So close, but not close enough.

The pundits seem to be picking Ricky Rubio to go #2, but is he really that much better than the next point guard on the board Brandon Jennings who is "mocked" to go as low as 7? I don't know.

#2's since 1999:

2008: Michael Beasley (Miami Heat)
2007: Kevin Durant (Seattle SuperSonics)
2006: LaMarcus Aldridge (Chicago Bulls)
2005: Marvin Williams (Atlanta Hawks)
2004: Emeka Okafor (Charlotte Bobcats)
2003: Darko Miicic (Detroit Pistons)- BUST
2002: Jay Williams (Chicago Bulls)- BUST
2001: Tyson Chandler (LA Clippers)
2000: Stromile Swift (Vancouver Grizzlies)- BUST
1999: Steve Francis (Vancouver Grizzlies)

#3 PICK (5.8% chance): In any other year this would be a real blessing.

But this year? Not too exciting, but who knows?

2008: O.J. Mayo (Minnesota Timberwolves)

2007: Al Horford (Atlanta Hawks)

2006: Adam Morrison (Charlotte Bobcats)- BUST

2005: Deron WIlliams (Utah Jazz)

2004: Ben Gordon (Chicago Bulls)

2003: Carmelo Anthony (Denver Nuggets)

2002: Mike Dunleavy (Golden State Warriors)- BUST

2001: Pau Gasol (Vancouver Grizzlies)

2000: Darius Miles (LA Clippers)- BUST

1999: Baron Davis (Charlotte Hornets)

#7 PICK (60.0% chance): We tanked it for this one.

Thanks to that marvelous extra tanking by Nellie and crew this is where the Warriors are currently slotted. If the Warriors don't move up to one of the top 3 spots and none of the teams below them move up they'll be drafting here.

Just for reference here are the last 10 players drafted at the #7 spot:

2008: Eric Gordon (LA Clippers)
2007: Corey Brewer (Minnesota Timberwolves)
2006: Randy Foye (Minnesota Timberwolves)- BUST
2005: Charlie Villanueva (Toronto Raptors)
2004: Luol Deng (Phoenix Suns)
2003: Kirk Hinrich (Chicago Bulls)
2002: Nene Hilario (Denver Nuggets)
2001: Eddie Griffin (New Jersey Nets)- BUST
2000: Chris Mihm (Chicago Bulls)- BUST
1999: Richard Hamilton (Washington Wizards)

#8 PICK (23.2% chance): Moving down...

2008: Joe Alexander (Milwaukee Bucks)

2007: Brandan Wright (Charlotte Bobcats)

2006: Rudy Gay (Houston Rockets)

2005: Channing Frye (New York Knicks)

2004: Rafael Araujo (Toronto Raptors)- BUST

2003: T.J. Ford (Milwaukee Bucks)

2002: Chris WIlcox (LA Clippers)

2001: DeSagana Diop (Cleveland Cavaliers)

2000: Jamal Crawford (Cleveland Cavaliers)

1999: Andre Miller (Cleveland Cavaliers)

#9 PICK (1.8% chance): 2 teams leap-frogged the Warriors.

2008: D.J. Augustin (Charlotte Bobcats)

2007: Joakim Noah (Chicago Bulls)

2006: Patrick O'Bryant (Golden State Warriors)- BUST

2005: Ike Diogu (Golden State Warriors)- BUST

2004: Andre Iguodala (Philadelphia 76ers)

2003: Michael Sweetney (New York Knicks)- BUST

2002: Amare Stoudemire (Phoenix Suns)

2001: Rodney White (Detroit Pistons)- BUST

2000: Joel Przybilla (Houston Rockets)

1999: Shawn Marion (Phoenix Suns)

#10 PICK (less than 0.01% chance): God is not a Warriors fan

This would mean THREE teams with better records this past season and consequently worse lottery odds for a top 3 pick moved up ahead of the Warriors. This would mean the 2009 NBA Draft Lottery went something like this: 1) New York Knicks, 2) Phoenix Suns, and 3) Charlotte Bobcats. Looks funny huh?

Here's the last 10 #10 picks:

2008: Brook Lopez (New Jersey Nets)

2007: Spencer Hawes (Sacramento Kings)

2006: Mouhamed Sene (Seattle SuperSonics)- BUST

2005: Andrew Bynum (LA Lakers)

2004: Luke Jackson (Cleveland Cavaliers)- BUST

2003: Jarvis Hayes (Washington Wizards)

2002: Caron Butler (Miami Heat)

2001: Joe Johnson (Boston Celtics)

2000: Kenyon Dooling (Orlando Magic)- BUST

1999: Jason Terry (Atlanta Hawks)

On a side note, it's too bad the Golden State Warriors unlike the NY Times didn't pay attention to Polling GSoM. We wanted Thunder to rep the Dubs in Secaucus, NJ, but it looks like new GM Larry Riley will be manning the ship. I would've loved to see Thunder, but I wish Riley the best.

Still...

It's PLAYOFF TIME in the Bay!

Poll

Where will the Golden State Warriors be drafting in the 2009 NBA Draft?

#7- They'll stay in the same spot

195 votes

#1- Hello Blake Griffin!

166 votes

#2- Ricky Rubio?

132 votes

#3- They'll move up 4 spots for the right to overpay someone

67 votes

#8- The Bricks, Craptors, Bucked, Net Loss, BETcats, Posers, or Sunny Delight will move up to the top 3

49 votes

#9- Ike Diogu, Patrick O'Bryant, and ??? (2 teams with better records than the Warriors will move up)

20 votes

#10- "Unstoppable Baby!" (THREE teams with better records than the Warriors will move up)

69 votes

698 votes | Poll has closed

A steak is a steak, right?

Stop-n-Pop — Thu, 12 Mar 2009 03:50:44 -0000

Look at it. No matter what your favorite food is you have to admit that a good tasty steak is right up there in the list of foods that make up the ultimate meal. Despite our northern settings, we Minnesotans are no strangers to good steaks. As a self-admitted foodie, there is nothing I enjoy cooking more than a nice porterhouse or onglet steak. It's good stuff and no matter how much I like to cook Korean (which has excellent beef dishes) or Indian (not so much), steak will always be my favorite food to prepare...preferably as medium-rare as possible.

In the NBA, I suppose you could say that each and every win qualifies as a tasty steak dinner, especially for a team with as few wins as the Timberwolves. However, as is the case with the culinary world, NBA steaks must ultimately be viewed in terms of quality and value. Against Memphis, the Wolves gave their fans an Applebee's special. Yes, it was steak, but Lordy, you were forced to enjoy it with an abundance of flare and junk on the wall.

Last night the Memphis Grizzlies ostensibly showed up at the Target Center to play a game of basketball. Tickets were sold, popcorn was consumed, and professional players shot a little orange ball at the rim. However, as far as overall satisfaction is concerned, it was a flat, empty meal and I kept waiting for a crew of overly-excited 20-somethings to come out and sing happy birthday to a family waiting for their free sundae.

What was it that the Griz served up on a cold March night in Minny? Perhaps it wasn't even beef. It seemed more like a serving of dog, as that's what Memphis played like for 48 minutes of "action" against Our Beloved ~~Puppies~~ Zombies.

Ultimately, after 10 straight loses, I'm happy that the Wolves were able to pull one out and play well. However, my general feeling about the game is one of...well, steak is still steak no matter if it's $14.99 at Applebee's or the good stuff at Manny's.

Ryan Gomes continued his streak of solid play, posting a team high 25 points while getting to the line 7 times with 5 boards and 5 dimes. Sebastian Telfair kept things brisk while logging only 25 minutes and 3 assists. Mike Miller, despite coming out of the gate looking to score with 6 shots early, ended up with only 12 shots, thus ensuring that a poor little kitten would meet its maker at the hands of a hungry puppy. Remember Mike, every time you shoot under 15 shots, a kitty gets it. How many more cats are you willing to threaten with your non-shooting ways?

Kevin Love had his nicest game in a while, stepping up with 19 points, 11 rebounds, and 4 assists with Randy Foye out for the game.

For their part, Memphis seemed at its relative best with Darko Milicic and Darius Miles out on the court. Marc Gasol, who had recently had one of his best games of the year, was remarkable in his inability to take advantage of his size advantage against a smurf-like Minny rotation. O.J. Mayo did nothing in the vein of Brandon Roy to remind fans of past Wolves trades. In fact, the Wolves were so in control of this game near the end that a chant of "OH-jay may-OH" could be heard from the Target Center faithful. When was the last time a home crowd got after an opposing player like that?

Getting back to the whole a-steak-is-a-steak meme, at one point of the game the Wolves ran out a rotation of Craig Smith, Brian Cardinal, Kevin Ollie, Sheldon Williams, and Bobby Brown. What do you think the Vegas odds were at the beginning of the season to see that 5-man lineup trotted out for extended playing time? Did they help get the job done? Yep, but at times it seemed even less than Applebee's fare; it was almost like finding an everything-must-go bargain NY Strip steak in the Rainbow Foods bargain bin.

I'd like to say that there was something to be learned about last night's tilt. I'd like to say that there were a bunch of things I could point to as future indicators of success. I can't. The Wolves did what they needed to do but I'm just not going to get all that excited about an Applebee's special. It was what it was. I'll never turn it down but I'll save my excitement for the next time they treat me to Manny's.

Cooler Talk: Microfracture Surgery

Tom Martin — Tue, 24 Feb 2009 03:02:46 -0000

I was looking around for some information on microfracture surgery and stumbled upon this bit of research done by Kevin Pelton of Basketball Prospectus. It hasn't been updated in a while, but it's very interesting stuff. Take a look at it, and then read the jumbled thoughts below.

Apparently, it's really cool to jump now...

T-Mac will be out at least 6-12 months, possibly longer. While there have been many notable failed comeback attempts (see that link), the Chronicle's Jonathan Feigen points out that McGrady may have a few things working in his favor:

The procedure is considered much less risky for McGrady because the joint surface damage unprotected by the usual amount of cartilage is less than a half centimeter, requiring less cartilage replacement, and because the lesion is on a non-weight bone bearing bone beneath the kneecap.

[Rockets team physician Dr. Tom Clanton] also was optimistic because he said McGrady has an otherwise "great looking" knee joint in the weight bearing parts of the joint, with normal ligaments and meniscus cartilages.

I'm not going to try to be an internet doctor here, because I don't know anything about the particulars of microfracture surgery. It's also tough to try to predict the outcome of T-Mac's rehab solely based on past subjects, but I'll try. Based off of Pelton's study, there are a few factors that may have contributed to other successes/failures:

Karl Malone never came back from the surgery...but he was 40
John Stockton came back at age 35...but he was never active around the rim, therefore relieving his knees of a lot of stress
Allan Houston came back for a season and put up decent numbers...but then he fell off the face of the earth. Yet, who's to say he wasn't going to naturally decline anyway in his mid-thirties. He also rushed the comeback and only missed 4.5 months.
Amare and Greg Oden had the surgery done when they were very young, therefore increasing their chances of a successful comeback.

The two failures that stand out to me are Terrell Brandon and Jamal Mashburn, two players who, like McGrady, were either 30 years old or one year away/removed. Brandon and Mashburn were high-flyers that relied on athleticism for a good part of their production. While McGrady does have a decent jump shot and good ball handling skills, his speed and ability to rise up against opponents made him a lethal scorer. His lack of both attributes killed any paint production he once had, and effectively, this is what he is trying to fix with this surgery. Based off of the cases of Brandon and Mashburn, or even Penny Hardaway and Darius Miles, a player like McGrady hasn't fared well in this surgical process.

But then again, I am not a doctor, and there could have been many, many factors that contributed to the aforementioned cases. And like Feigen said, there is reason for optimism in McGrady's case.

However, while McGrady may be looking to regain his lost hops, it may not be as "simple" as microfracture surgery. Even if the procedure is a complete success, the odds of McGrady ever flying as high as he once did are slim. In order to truly be productive again, if he indeed comes back, Tracy will need to change his game entirely. He tried to incorporate changes in his on-court movement during his brief rehab assignment a month ago, but his knee simply couldn't take it. With a healthier knee, maybe he will be able to truly find a way to be productive without jumping over people, though I will miss those days.

To add yet another question mark to this subject, will McGrady ever don a Rockets uniform ever again? Say it takes a full 12 months for him to fully recover. That puts us at the trade deadline, and many speculate that McGrady's attractive expiring contract will give us a good reason to move him. Even if McGrady does play again, chances are, it won't be for the Rockets. But that's a whole different subject, many months in the future. Hopefully, he'll be back before we have to deal with that.