SB Nation - Calvin Booth

2009 Season Preview

Stop-n-Pop — Sat, 17 Oct 2009 08:00:25 -0000

Last Year's Record: 24-58

Key ~~Losses~~ Additions By Subtraction: Calvin Booth, Bobby Brown, Rodney Carney, Jason Collins, Randy Foye, Mark Madsen, Rashad McCants, Mike Miller, Kevin Ollie, Craig Smith, Sebastian Telfair, Shelden Williams, Kevin McHale.

Honorary Member of the Addition By Subtraction club: Mark Blount.

Key Additions: Wayne Ellington, Jonny Flynn, Ryan Hollins, Sasha Pavlovic, Oleksiy Pecherov, Jared Reiner, Ramon Sessions, Damien Wilkins, Kurt Rambis, Bill Laimbeer, Reggie Theus, Dave Wohl.

1. What significant moves were made during the off-season?

Grab a chair folks, this could take a while.

I think the best way to illustrate just how much has happened here in Wolves Land is to take a look at last year's opening day starting line up:

Randy Foye
Mike Miller
Corey Brewer
Ryan Gomes
Al Jefferson

...add in the key reserves:

Kevin Ollie
Rashad McCants
Rodney Carney
Craig Smith
Kevin Love

...compare them to the line up and reserves from the last game of the 08/09 season (and yes, Kevin McHale thought it would be a good idea to give the paying customers at the Target Center their own special version of a Seniors Night):

Kevin Ollie/Sebastian Telfair/Bobby Brown
Mike Miller/Rodney Carney
Brian Cardinal/Ryan Gomes
Mark Madsen/Kevin Love/Craig Smith
Jason Collins/Shelden Williams

...before finally taking a peak at the rotation in the team's first 2009/10 preseason game against Milwaukee:

Jonny Flynn/Ramon Sessions/Mustafa Shakur
Corey Brewer/Sasha Pavlovic/Wayne Ellington
Ryan Gomes/Damien Wilkins
Kevin Love/Brian Cardinal
Al Jefferson/Ryan Hollins/Jared Reiner

Let's take a quick peak at those starting/closing day lineups with the dearly departed x'd out of existence:

~~Randy Foye/Kevin Ollie~~
~~Mike Miller/Rashad McCants~~
Corey Brewer/~~Rodney Carney~~
Ryan Gomes/~~Craig Smith~~
Al Jefferson/Kevin Love

~~Kevin Ollie/Sebastian Telfair/Bobby Brown~~
~~Mike Miller/Rodney Carney~~
Brian Cardinal/Ryan Gomes
~~Mark Madsen~~/Kevin Love/~~Craig Smith~~
~~Jason Collins/Shelden Williams~~

And no, I do not believe there is another team in the league with only three remaining players from the rotation of their final 08/09 game. Only the Raptors come close.

What did the Wolves lose?

Net Production by Position

Position	FGA	eFG%	FTA	iFG	Reb	Ast	T/O	Blk	PF	Pts	PER*
PG	-0.5	-.061	-1.5	0%	-1.9	-0.7	-0.2	-0.0	-1.1	-3.8	-7.0
SG	0.1	-.034	-0.1	4%	0.1	-0.3	-0.2	-0.0	-0.3	-1.1	-2.4
SF	-3.5	+.001	-2.5	-1%	0.9	0.5	-0.5	0.1	-0.8	-5.5	-4.2
PF	0.3	-.016	-0.3	8%	-0.2	0.3	-0.6	-0.9	-0.3	-0.5	-2.3
C	6.1	-.057	2.1	4%	1.8	-0.9	0.2	-1.1	0.8	6.0	+2.4

They gave up a whole lot of nothing at the point, a Randy-Foye-January-fueled-it-was-really-worse-than-the-final-numbers-suggest basket of crap at the off-guard, a bowl of ineptitude at the 3, some holy-crap-there-is-nobody-behind-Love at the 4, and Al Jefferson and Kevin Love at the 5.

Enter David Kahn.

While I think it is safe to say that most Wolves fans who were paying attention at the time of his hiring (all 1,700 of us) were upset that the team seemed to have bumbled its way through its most important new addition in years (Kahn seemed to be a secondary choice and candidates from the Blazers and Spurs appear to have walked away from the position), The Demolition Man quickly and confidently made a series of moves that have placed the Wolves in a position to win.

He turned Kevin McHale, Jerry Sichting, and Dean Cooper into Kurt Rambis, Reggie Theus, Bill Laimbeer, and Dave Wohl.
He turned two moderate-sized expiring contracts into Ricky Rubio.
He turned a Sebastian Telfair/Kevin Ollie point guard rotation into a Jonny Flynn/Ramon Sessions one.
He picked up an athletic big who can play the reserve 4/5.
He drafted the 2nd best shooter in the draft late in the 1st round.
He cleared (probably) between $13-15 milion in 2010 cap space.
He picked up another 2010 first round pick.

Best of all, Kahn has made the Wolves interesting again. The process has been full of goofy quotes, funny interviews, nearly weekly roster moves, and the entire Ricky Rubio saga, but the bottom line for Kahn and the Wolves is the results:

Their core is good and tremendously young.
They have drafted the 2 best Euros in the past 2 drafts and stashed them overseas.
They have 3 likely 1st round picks in the 2010 draft.
They will have in the neighborhood of $15 million below the cap in 2010 free agency.
Chances are, they now have a functional point guard on their roster.

This thing is clearly still a work in progress (the team needs help on the wing and the Rubio situation still needs to be resolved one way or another) but it is also clearly pointed in the right direction.

2. What are the team's biggest strengths?

Rebounding. Rebounding. Rebounding, and more rebounding. Kevin Love is one of the league's top 3 rebounders, Al Jefferson's game is built to be close to the bucket and he collects a net positive on the offensive boards, and Corey Brewer can hold his own at either the 2 or 3. If there is a player from last year's squad to get a little chippy about his departure, it is Mike Miller. Despite not shooting the damn ball, Miller was a very solid defensive rebounder and it will take a well above average effort from Pavlovic, Brewer, and Gomes to match Miller's efforts on the glass at the 2/3. Miller was the team's 3rd best rebounder and he did so from the wing. That's going to be harder to make up than what I think most people first realize, especially with the crew of Pavlovic, Brewer, Gomes, and Ellington trying to make up the difference. Ramon Sessions should make up for some of the lost rebounding production vis-a-vis Sebastian Telfair, but Miller's loss probably will have some effect on the glass. How much is something that remains to be seen.

In theory, the Wolves should also be a very good free throw shooting team this season. Last year Ramon Sessions had the 25th best FT/FG rate in the league at 36. Kevin Love was 18th at 39. Big Al was all the way down at 154 with 19. By all accounts in college, summer league, and his small sample of preseason games, Jonny Flynn has all the makings of a high-contact guard who will draw a lot of fouls in an up-tempo system. Last year the Wolves had one fairly legit threat of getting to the line at a high rate: Kevin Love. This year they have 3 players who should draw a ton of contact with one guy (Jefferson) who will have a modest rate but a high volume due to his number of touches.

It's pretty hard for me to overstate just how big of a deal improved free throw shooting will be for the Wolves. Last year the Wolves averaged 2.3 fewer FTAs than their opponents. The year before that they were a league-worst -6.9 in that category (which should give you an idea of the relative merits between Kevin Love and Craig Smith). For a team with a -4.9 point differential these are points that simply cannot be left on the board. With the addition of Sessions and Flynn, and with the continued development of Love, the Wolves appear to have addressed one of their biggest weaknesses of the past 2-3 years and turned it, hopefully, into a positive. For those readers who are just casual fans of the game, I cannot stress enough how important the free throw differential is to the bottom line. I also cannot stress enough just how bad the Wolves have been on this front over the past several years.

The final thing the Wolves are going to be good at is physicality. This is something that will be pretty hard to define over the course of the year but I have a pretty good feeling that they are going to be scrappy. One of the most striking things about their play in camp was they way in which guys like Love, Brewer, Sessions, and Ryan Hollins were getting after it. This has a chance of positively impacting the play on the end of the court they need help with the most. I'm not saying that they are going to be a defensive dynamo, but this year's squad has the opportunity to run out a rotation of Sessions, Brewer, Pavlovic, Jefferson/Love, and Ryan Hollins, which is a fairly significant defensive upgrade over anything they were able to offer up in the 08/09 campaign. This especially becomes the case if Brewer develops into the plus-defender we all hope he can morph in to. Sessions/Brewer/Pavlovic has the potential to turn the epic defensive weakness of Telfair/Foye/Miller into a positive for this club. It's probably not a lineup you'd run out there for long stretches of time, but it is something that this club did not have at its disposal under McHale. All three of those players held their 08/09 opponents to below their average production. The same could not be said for Telfair (-0.009% of opponents' average), Foye (whose opponents went 10.8% over their average production against the former Villanova star), and Miller (a mere 5.6% over average production). If you throw Ryan Hollins into the mix, the Wolves may have something approaching an effective defensive unit that they could trot out on the floor for 4-8 minutes per night.

3. What are the team's biggest weaknesses?

Defense, wing play, turnovers, and outside shooting. I don't really know if there is a good way to break this down in much greater detail but the Wolves are still going to have problems on defense; their 2 and 3 will be manned by a rotation of Corey Brewer, Wayne Ellington, Sasha Pavlovic, and Ryan Gomes, and their backcourt will be led by 2 point guards who will be in their first year with the team. David Kahn has been pretty frontal in his assessment that Gomes and Brewer are both in put up or shut up years. Pavlovic is on a 1-year contract. Nothing is promised or owed to any of these players and if they can't figure it out this year, I think it is becoming more and more obvious that when the Wolves do cash in their draft/free agency chips, it will be for a wing player. At media day and during camp both Gomes and Brewer said enough to make everyone well aware of the fact that they too know the score. As you can see from the positional chart listed above, the score on the wing isn't exactly in the Wolves' favor to begin with.

While I mentioned the possibility of a fairly solid perimeter defensive rotation with Sessions, Brewer, and Pavlovic, the fact remains that there is nothing on this team to suggest a significant overall improvement in defensive efficiency. Until we see some improvement in action, it's hard to believe it in theory. Ryan Hollins gives them a lengthy shot blocker but he fouls a ton. Corey Brewer has the potential to be an A+ defender but he is coming back from injury and is close to completely ineffective on the offensive end of the court. Ramon Sessions is a slightly above average defender at the point but he could end up with a lot of minutes at the 2. The point here is that even with the defensive positives the Wolves have some issues when it comes to weighing their best overall lineups against their best defensive ones. I'd be peachy keen with anything close to a neutral OE/DE ratio.

It can also not be overstated just how bad of an outside shooting club the Wolves are going to be this year. Wayne Ellington is probably their best shooter, their likely starting two guard (Brewer) has a career .250 three point average, their best point guard has 41 career three point attempts (with a .220 average), and Sasha Pavlovic's numbers from beyond the arc have seen a four-year fluctuation of .365, .405, .298, and .410. Could Ryan Gomes be the team's best outside shooter? If that's the case, then the Wolves are in for a long, long year from a perimeter shooting perspective. It's already proving to be a big problem in their limited preseason action.

4. What are the goals for this team?

a- At least a neutral OE/DE rating. Last year the Wolves had a -5.3 point gap per 100 possessions. While this was an improvement over the -7.4 point gap per 100 possessions from the year before, it still is a giant pile of suck. With the addition of a real starting point guard, and the maturation of Kevin Love, here's hoping the Wolves can pick up 2-3 pp/100 poss on the offensive side of the ball and that the return of Brewer and the addition of Sessions and Pavlovic can gain a point or two on the defensive side of things.

b- An increase in pace and shots within the first 10-15 seconds of the shot clock. If the Wolves' new offensive is going to pay dividends we should see an increased pace with more shots taken in transition. 36% of the Wolves' shots in 2008/09 were in the first 10 seconds of the shot clock and 26% came in the next 5. If those numbers go up, it means the Wolves are running and getting opportunistic buckets. Last year the Wolves finished 15th in the league with 91.6 possessions/game. That number needs to go up.

c- Free throw neutrality (or more). As mentioned above, the Wolves should have an increase in free throw attempts this season. I have been harping on this point for two years now: You can't win games while losing by a mile at the free throw line. It can't be done. Between Kevin Love, Ramon Sessions, and Jonny Flynn, the Wolves have three guys who can really draw contact and get to the charity stripe.

d- Injury free.Will Kevin Love break the Wolves' 2nd year injury curse? From Shaddy to Foye to Brewer, 2nd year draft Wovles draft picks have all suffered season-ending injuries in their 2nd campaign. This is one curse that needs to be broken this year. (UPDATE: Of course, as this goes to post, Kevin Love breaks a bone in his left hand and will likely be out 6-8 weeks.)

5. Did David Kahn screw the pooch on draft night?

Let me begin by giving a simple yes or no: No. However, the (excellent) addition of Ramon Sessions begs the question of whether or not the Wolves could have walked away from the Draft with Rubio and, say, Demar DeRozan instead of Jonny Flynn. Sure, it would have been a big bet to wait out for Sessions, and who knows what would have happened with Sessions' negotiations if Rubio stayed in Europe and Flynn wasn't sitting there as a sure replacement, but..well, it's pretty hard to ignore the fact that the Wolves had two big first rounders and a free agent signing over the summer and they were all at the same position. Yes, it's at a position that has killed the Wolves since the days of Sam Cassell but isn't there a nagging little thought in the back of your head that is whispering "it could have been done better?" I think Kahn has done a terrific job but it will ultimately depend on which point guard(s) stick around in 2-3 years and how much he can get with the one (or two) that gets sent away. Will that equation end up being more valuable than the previously mentioned Rubio/DeRozan/Sessions combo? Who knows?

Projected Finish: 31-51

Poll

How many games will the Wolves win this year?

Less than 15

28 votes

16-20

83 votes

21-25

147 votes

26-30

183 votes

31-35

83 votes

More than 35

30 votes

554 votes | Poll has closed

A Look at the Orlando Magic's Last-String Power Forward/Center Options

Ben Q Rock — Tue, 18 Aug 2009 12:00:11 -0000

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Not so long ago, I took a look at potential free-agent point guards whom the Orlando Magic could sign to fill out their bench. Team GM Otis Smith has made it clear that point guard is his highest priority; he's also made it clear that he'd also like to add another big man to the roster. With no movement on the point guard front--except the rumor that Smith is still pursuing restricted free agent C.J. Watson via a sign-and-trade with Golden State--it's high time we look at potential power forwards and centers Orlando could probably sign on the cheap.

The operative word is "cheap." As we've noted previously, the Magic are over the salary cap and have used both the mid-level and bi-annual exceptions, meaning they can only sign players to minimum contracts. NBA experience determines the specific finances of said deals, about which you can read here.

Unfortunately for the Magic, the best minimum-salary bigs have already signed. Joe Smith spurned the Cleveland Cavaliers to latch on with the Atlanta Hawks, while Rasho Nesterovic has re-upped with the Toronto Raptors after a one-year detour with the Indiana Pacers and, in arguably the best signing of the summer, the Cavs landed the productive-but-injury-hobbled power forward Leon Powe. Thus, there are few standouts on this list. Bear in mind that whomever Orlando chooses will be last on the depth chart, behind two All-Stars (Dwight Howard and Rashard Lewis), two youngsters combining to earn nearly $10 million this season (Marcin Gortat and Brandon Bass), and the second-year player whom the team views as a long-term building block (Ryan Anderson). In short, the Magic's mystery signee will hardly play, so he need not be exceptional.

After the jump, brief breakdowns of no fewer than 17 free-agent power forwards and centers who are still on the market.

And, as with the point guard piece, I've excluded D-Leaguers, because Smith has never made a D-League call-up in his tenure as Orlando's GM.

Calvin Booth:

The Good: Booth has parlayed his exceptional shot-blocking skills into a 10-year career in which he's earned nearly $36 million. He still has the touch, averaging a block per every 13 minutes played over his last two seasons, which he's split between Philadelphia, Minnesota, and Sacramento. And he'd undoubtedly accept a minimum contract.
The Bad: Just about everything else. He's not much of a scorer or rebounder, and one wonders if he'll even sign in the NBA this year as teams plan to carry fewer players due to the weak economy.
The Verdict: In spite of everything, he's hardly the worst name on this list, which should keep him in the conversation.

Head back to the top.

Jarron Collins:

The Good: Regarded as a stout, heady defender--just like his twin brother, whom we'll discuss shortly--Jarron Collins has carved out a respectable 8-year career despite having no discernible offensive skills. The contributions that have kept him in the league this long must go beyond the box score, since his per-game stats (4.3 points, 3.1 boards, 0.2 blocks in 16.9 minutes) are far from exceptional.
The Bad: As with most of the guys on this list, Jarron Collins is a zero on offense.
The Verdict: Think of Jarron as a younger version of Adonal Foyle, minus the rebounding and shot-blocking. In other words, think of him as Adonal Foyle, minus the skills that have kept him in the league.

Head back to the top.

Jason Collins:

The Good: Jason's career has eerily mirrored that of his brother but he enjoys a higher profile due to his presence on the New Jersey Nets' Eastern Conference Championship-winning teams in 2001/2002 and 2002/2003.
The Bad: Statistically speaking, he's worse than Jarron, in spite of his higher profile. Despite hardly straying more than 10 feet from the immediate basket area on offense, he's a career 41% shooter (Jarron's more efficient, but still unacceptable, with a career 45.9% mark from the field) . For some perspective, two years ago, Rashard Lewis shot 40.9%...from three-point range. "Awful" really doesn't begin to describe Jason's offensive ability.
The Verdict: Unless his great reputation somehow precedes him, it's hard to imagine Jason Collins playing in the NBA this season. Jarron is the better option of the two.

Head back to the top.

Melvin Ely:

The Good: If nothing else, Ely's built like a semi truck. Listed at 6'10" and 260 pounds, but likely heavier, Ely can take up space in the paint.
The Bad: But in all likelihood, when he's in there offensively, he's not doing much good. Discounting dunks and tip-ins, Ely converted just 31.3% of his shots in the immediate basket area last season. You'd almost prefer him to step out and take a jumper, which he's willing to do. 82games classifies nearly one-third of Ely's shots last season, as jumpers, which he converted at a 33.3% clip.
The Verdict: Maybe the Magic could live with Ely's considerable offensive shortcomings if he could at least rebound, but even then he's mediocre, with a career rebound rate of 11.7%, which puts him in Brian Cook (11.2% career) territory. He's a poor all-around player who hardly cracked New Orleans' rotation last season, despite their dearth of frontcourt talent. With all that said, Smith tried to acquire Ely from Charlotte at the 2007 trading deadline, so we at least know he was on Smith's radar at one point. For Orlando's purposes, it's probably best if he isn't.

Head back to the top.

Adonal Foyle:

The Good: Say what you will about his poor hands and finishing ability, but Foyle's still a tremendous defender, rebounder, and shot-blocker. I stumbled all over myself in order to praise Foyle after his first appearance last season, in which coach Stan Van Gundy called upon him to defend Yao Ming. Foyle responded with 4 points, 7 boards, and 3 blocked shots against the NBA's most offensively skilled center, in relief of the foul-maligned Howard. And, on the non-basketball side of the equation, Foyle's a great guy to have in the locker room, and as someone who eschews stories about athletes' intangibles, that's not something to take lightly
The Bad: Outside of the occasional put-back attempt, all Foyle can do on offense is set screens and box out.
The Verdict: Whichever team signs Foyle--if he's even in the league at all--will get some bang for its buck. He's worth the money for his locker-room wisdom--not a vocal leader, but more of a quiet, willing, mentor--alone. The fact that the Magic re-signed him last season solely to be a sparring partner for Howard during practices attests to his "intangible" value, and all told, he's in the upper tier of players on this list.

Head back to the top.

Aaron Gray:

The Good: In two seasons with Chicago--which owns his restricted free-agent rights, giving it the ability to match any offer another team makes for his services--the 24-year-old Gray has shown flashes of being a solid, rotation-caliber player. Consider, for instance, his career per-36-minute averages of 12.4 points and 10.5 boards. Not bad for a second-round draft pick, and arguably better than another second-rounder from the 2007 draft class who recently signed for $3 million annually.
The Bad: He's noted for his utter lack of athleticism and speed, and the Bulls would likely match a minimum-salary offer, meaning the Magic would have to obtain him in a sign-and-trade deal.
The Verdict: Physical limitations aside, Gray has decent low-post, back-to-the-basket scoring instincts, and would be worth a long-term investment were it not for the more than $100 million Orlando has tied up in Howard and Gortat over the next several seasons. If he can be had cheaply, he might be the best fit for Orlando of any player listed here. That possibility seems very remote, however.

Head back to the top.

Juwan Howard:

The Good: The opposite of Gray in many respects, as a been-there, done-that veteran. He's lasted quite awhile, hasn't he? Howard, at age 35, appeared in 42 games last season, no doubt surprising countless television viewers who assumed he'd been out of basketball for quite some time. Last season, his 15th in the league, he set a new career-high by shooting 51% from the field. And he's earned a reputation as a good locker-room presence
The Bad: If the Magic want rebounding from their end-of-the-bench big man--and why wouldn't they?--they aren't going to find it with Howard, whose total rebound rate of 9.9 last season puts him in (here comes that phrase again!) Brian Cook territory.
The Verdict: My guess is that he doesn't have much of anything else to contribute at the NBA level. He's probably not a markedly better option for Orlando than, say, either of the Collins twins.

Head back to the top.

Othello Hunter:

The Good: In extremely limited minutes for the Atlanta Hawks last season--92, to be precise--Hunter posted encouraging numbers. 8.6 points per 36 minutes isn't great, but the 9.4 boards and 15.3% rebounding rate? That's encouraging. And at 23, there's potential for long-term development.
The Bad: He's listed at just 6'08" and 225 pounds, making him a less-than-ideal size for the position. Plus, the Hawks didn't think highly enough of him to play him very often, although that might be more of an indictment of coach Mike Woodson's ability to manage players than it is of Hunter's skills.
The Verdict: Based on the small sample size, Hunter appears to be worth at least a training-camp invitation; I'd stay away from offering him a guaranteed deal until he shows what he's got in the preseason. He might stand to earn more money overseas, but at the same time, he might not want to give up on the NBA just yet. Put him at or around the top of the list, for now.

Head back to the top.

Sean Marks

The Good: Based on what I've seen, there aren't many scrappier players in the NBA. Marks is a decent rebounder (13% rebound rate) and an average shot-blocker (1.4 blocks/36 career) who plays hard. 110% and all that.
The Bad: Utterly anemic offensively, with a career 44.9% mark from the field, although he's a combined 49.5% in his last two seasons. All the hustle in the world can't put the ball in the basket.
The Verdict: He's one of the main reasons the Hornets traded for Emeka Okafor and signed Ike Diogu this summer, as Marks just doesn't belong in a contender's rotation. But in Orlando, as the 6th big man, he wouldn't be in the rotation. Not a great option, but certainly not the worst, either.

Head back to the top.

Mikki Moore:

The Good: He's only 2 years removed from averaging 8.5 points and 6 rebounds per game with Sacramento, with a respectable Player Efficiency Rating of 11.5.
The Bad: Last year, the Boston Celtics signed Moore after the Kings bought him out, hoping he'd approximate the contributions P.J. Brown made to their championship team in 2008. Predictably, it didn't work out. Moore plays hard and means well, but was so utterly lost defensively in Boston that coach Doc Rivers couldn't count on him when the games mattered more. Indeed, Moore played only 66 minutes in the postseason, while Brian Scalabrine--Brian Scalabrine!--played 246. If that's not a strike against Moore, I'm not sure what is.
The Verdict: As a sixth big man--as opposed to the third in injury-riddled Boston--Moore isn't such a bad option. And he'd actually have a fair amount of time to learn Van Gundy's defensive rotations, as opposed to last year, when he had to take a crash-course in Boston's plans. He wouldn't be a bad pickup, but certainly wouldn't be a great one, either.

Head back to the top.

Johan Petro:

The Good: His rebounding and blocked-shots statistics compare favorably to Marks', and he's 10 years younger to boot.
The Bad: His offense, though, is also similar to Marks. Worse, it's on the decline. In his first two seasons, he shot a combined 51.4% from the field. In his last two? 41.8%, a staggering drop-off due to his over-reliance on an iffy jumper. Yikes. Now the Magic wouldn't ask him--or anyone on this list, really--to create any offense for himself. But you'd nonetheless like whomever they sign to be able to bang an open jumper every now and again, as Tony Battie did last year, and as Brandon Bass will do (much more effectively) this year.
The Verdict: I'm lukewarm on Petro, which makes him better than almost everyone on this list. Of the young players, he seems the most likely to be available for the minimum.

Head back to the top.

Malik Rose:

The Good: Rose would bring championship experience to Orlando, as he won titles with the San Antonio Spurs in both 1999 and 2003. These weren't cheap rings for Rose, as he averaged 12.9 minutes per game in '99 and 24.5 in '03.
The Bad: Did the absence of any skills analysis in the last paragraph tip my hand? Rose doesn't have anything in the tank anymore, it appears. His Player Efficiency Ratings in the last three years are in the single-digits, and his rebounding rates have dipped into the 11-and-12 range. He never was an offensive stalwart, having never shot better than 47.7% from the field in any of his 13 professional seasons, and he hasn't so much as cracked 40% in any of his last 4 seasons.
The Verdict: Rose has enjoyed a decent career by most metrics, but his skills have diminished too sharply to justify granting him a roster spot.

Head back to the top.

James Singleton:

The Good: The 28-year-old James is coming off a career season with the Dallas Mavericks, averaging 5.1 points per game, in just 14.9 minutes, while shooting 52.9% from the floor. His ability to finish inside boosted his field-goal percentage, as he converted a stellar 71.4% of his shots in the immediate basket area in 2008/2009. For comparison's sake, consider that Dwight Howard shot 62.2% and Marcin Gortat shot 63.4% in the same situations.
The Bad: First, there's the question of how much Hall-of-Fame point guard Jason Kidd inflated Singleton's stats; they'd almost certainly return to Earth in Orlando, even potentially playing alongside All-Star point guard Jameer Nelson. Second, there's probably no way Dallas wouldn't match a minimum contract offer for his services, as he is a restricted free agent, and owner Mark Cuban is a freakin' billionaire (the Magic's decision to match his offer to Gortat doesn't figure into this analysis, because Cuban would match a minimum offer to Singleton regardless of the team that extended it). Finally, he's more of a combo forward than a true big man, although he still played roughly 80% of his minutes at power forward last season.
The Verdict: If the Magic can somehow find a way to grab him, their fans wouldn't have much reason to complain. He'd be worth it, even when one accounts for the statistical decline in his play without Kidd. Let me put it this way: the Magic's chances of signing him are so infinitesimally remote that he's hardly worth considering, but I included him in this post anyway because he was, frankly, just that impressive last season.

Head back to the top.

Brian Skinner:

The Good: One can take or leave Skinner's rebounding--15.1% career rate, 13.9% last year with the Clippers--but that block rate (3.6% career, 4.6% last year and 6.0% the year before) deserves some attention. Skinner is perhaps the quintessential, defensive-minded, end-of-the-bench big man. His overall statistics last year suggest that, even at 33, he's an NBA-caliber player.
The Bad: In the tradition of many mediocre NBA bigs, he tends to shoot a lot of jumpers at a low percentage.

Also, this goatee.
The Verdict: Skinner, it seems to me, is the sort of emergency big man who's not going to greatly aid his team's cause when he's on the floor... but he's not going to hurt it, either. That's about all you can ask from a sixth big man, which is why I endorse Skinner more strongly than I do any of the other veterans on this list, save for Foyle.

Head back to the top.

Stromile Swift:

The Good: He has a bad reputation for never living up to his potential--he was the second overall pick of the 1999 draft--but he's actually carved out a decent career. In 2003/04, under the tutelage of Hubie Brown, he posted a Player Efficiency Rating of 19.7, for instance, and his career PER is an above-average 16.7. So he's not as bad a player as some people might expect due to the negativity surrounding him, which stems from his high draft position.
The Bad: Sadly, Swift's mother passed away in February, which (obviously) upset him very much. He was "inconsolable," according to his agent, and a week later, the Nets waived him after his agent talked things over with GM Kiki Vandeweghe. He signed with Phoenix--where he played with Magic free-agent signee Matt Barnes, who also lost his mother recently--but did not contribute much. In short, it's been a tough year for Swift, and concerns remain about his readiness to play basketball to the best of his (underrated) ability.
The Verdict: Orlando might be the ideal landing place for Swift, as he'd re-join former teammates Anderson, Barnes, and Vince Carter. He'd also play with Nelson, a team captain and leader, who dealt with the sudden and unexpected death of his father in 2007. In short, he'd be among friends. Of this we can be certain.

Whether Orlando has much use for him, though, is less sure. He's still a great athlete (this dunk is less than two years old!) and, as I mentioned, a somewhat underrated player. If Smith feels as though he can bank on Swift's readiness to contribute in an end-of-the-bench role, then he'd be a solid pickup. But if Swift isn't mentally "there" yet, the Magic shouldn't commit to him when there are other, better options who are ready.

Head back to the top.

Jake Voskuhl:

The Good: At 6'11" and 245 pounds, Voskuhl's a big boy. Yup, that's all I've got.
The Bad: Last year, in Toronto, he posted a PER of 0.4, shot 26.7% from the field, and committed a turnover on almost exactly one-quarter of his possessions used. He also committed one foul for every four minutes he played. He was so cosmically dreadful that Basketbawful coined the term "Voskuhl" for big men whose "combined fouls and turnovers exceed his combined points and rebounds over the course of a game."

And he was no great shakes prior to last season, either.
The Verdict: There's quite simply no compelling reason to believe Voskuhl merits an NBA roster spot at this point in his career.

Head back to the top.

Lorenzen Wright:

The Good: Pardon the echo chamber here, but at 6'11" and 225 pounds, Wright's a big boy..
The Bad: He's probably worse than Voskuhl, if you can believe it. Injuries have limited Wright to 36 games over the last two seasons, in which he's combined to shoot 16-of-48, or 33.3%. No NBA team is ever going to ask Wright to do anything on offense, but his other stats don't indicate he's worth having on the floor. He'll turn 34 in the first week of the season.
The Verdict: Yeah, his NBA days are probably finished. Orlando need not seriously consider Wright, but if there isn't anyone else on the board, they might have to settle for him.

Head back to the top.

A quick survey of the above players shows that only four (Foyle, Gray, Singleton, and Skinner) are near-locks to make an NBA roster this season, which sort of illustrates the talent pool with which we're dealing. Fortunately, the Magic won't require much of their last big man, which makes these choices sightly more attractive. Foyle and Skinner are the best realistic options, at least to me, and the only way Smith can go wrong here is by signing someone on the level of Voskuhl and Wright. In other words, don't get too down on the Magic if, say, Moore is the best they can get for the minimum salary.

The Shopping List

atthehive — Mon, 29 Jun 2009 00:03:53 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

Ike Diogu is one of the 50 front court options NBA teams have this summer.

Browse more photos »

I took a look at our budget last post (1-2 million dollars to sign one player). Now, let's assess what people are going to cost.

I've tried to include every front court free agents (UFA and RFA) that I could find here, but if I missed any, let me know. Big thanks to this list from Depressed Fan and to ESPN player pages. Quick explanation of the table: Restricted refers to UFA/RFA status, competitors refers to projected number of teams that want the player, Salary projection is my estimation of the player's market value, and target refers to whether New Orleans can reasonably target the player (in parantheses is an explanation of why (expensive, etc)).

The full 50 player table after the jump.

Player	Restricted?	Last Salary	Competitors	Projection ($)	Target?
Rasheed Wallace	No	20.1M	3+	10-15	No ($)
Malik Rose	No	11.5M	0	Minimum	No (sucks)
Drew Gooden	No	3.0M	1-2	2-4	Yes ($)
Chris Wilcox	No	10.1M	1-2	2-5	Yes ($)
Stromile Swift	No	0.83M	0-1	Minimum	Yes
Shawn Marion	No	20.1M	3+	12-18	No ($)
Ike Diogu	Yes	8.8M	0-1	2-4	Yes ($)
Lamar Odom	No	20.1M	3+	15-20	No ($)
Paul Millsap	Yes	1.6M	3+	unknown, but $$$	No ($)
Charlie Villanueva	Yes	10.3M	1-2	8-15	No ($)
Joe Smith	No	2.4M	1-2	2-4	Yes ($)
Shelden Williams	No	4.1M	0-1	Minimum	Yes
Maceo Baston	No	4.5M	0-1	1-2	Yes
Cedric Simmons	No	2.7M	0	Minimum	No (sucks)
Marcin Gortat	Yes	0.83M	0	Minimum	No (sucks)
Chris Andersen	No	0.83M	2-3	2-4	Yes (DEN)
Channing Frye	Yes	9.5M	0-1	2-4	No ($, sucks)
Hakim Warrick	Yes	6.4M	1-2	4-8	Yes ($)
David Lee	Yes	6.1M	3+	unknown, but $$$	No ($)
Steve Novak	No	1.0M	0-1	min-3	Yes
Donyell Marshall	No	0.83M	0-1	Minimum	Yes (old)
Ryan Bowen	No	0.83M	0	Minimum	Yes
Michael Ruffin	No	0.83M	0	Minimum	Yes
Shavlik Randolph	No	0.83M	0-1	Minimum	Yes
Leon Powe	Yes	0.83M	3+	Unknown, but $$	No ($)
Glen Davis	Yes	1.0M	2-3	3-7	Yes (BOS)
Raef LaFrentz	No	19.1M	0	Negative	No (sucks)
Rasho Nesterovic	No	12.6M	1-2	3-5	Yes ($)
Jason Collins	No	9.3M	0	Minimum	No (sucks)
Zaza Pachulia	No	8.0M	2-3	4-5	No ($)
Robert Swift	No	7.2M	0	Minimum	Yes
Aaron Gray	Yes	0.83M	0-1	Minimum	Yes
Chris Mihm	No	5.0M	0-1	2-3	Yes
Saer Sene	No	0.83M	0	Minimum	Yes
Jarron Collins	see Jason	4.1M	see Jason	see Jason	see Jason
DJ Mbenga	No	0.96M	0	Minimum	No (sucks)
Calvin Booth	No	2.7M	0	Minimum	No (sucks)
Melvin Ely	No	0.83M	0	Minimum	Yes (sucks)
Ryan Hollins	No	0.83M	0-1	1-2	Yes
Lorenzen Wright	No	0.83M	0	Minimum	Yes (old)
Adonal Foyle	No	0.83M	0	Minimum	Yes (old)
Jamaal Magloire	No	0.83M	0-1	Minimum	Yes (old)
Sean Marks	No	0.83M	0	Minimum	Yes (old)
Theo Ratliff	No	0.83M	0-1	Minimum	Yes (old)
Johan Petro	Yes	5.9M	0-1	2-3	Yes
Jake Voskuhl	No	0.83M	0-1	Minimum	No (sucks)
Marvin Williams	Yes	14.1M	3+	10-15	No ($)
James Singleton	No	0.83M	0-1	Minimum	Yes (DAL)
Walter Herrmann	No	4.0M	0-1	2-4	Yes

So out of the 50 UFA/RFA big men of 2009, the Hornets can put 30 of them on their radar.

As you can see, there are a ton of guys out there. Not all of these guys (or even half these guys, I suspect) are going to find homes next season. Yes, there is a good deal of variance, but the supply is definitely greater than the demand.

There are four tiers the 30 players can be split into.

"Uh Oh, Everybody's Gone And/Or (Probably And) We're Broke."

Among the 30 potential signees, we can probably classify some of them as last gasp options due to suckage, old age, or some combination of the two. Of all the players I gave a 'yes' in the far right column, here are the ones I'd categorize as last resorts:

Steve Novak: The Hornets have gaping holes in their frontcourt, but specifically they need to target rebounders. When David West and Tyson Chandler hit the bench, Byron Scott won't appreciate a big man that spends 99.999% of his time between three point arcs. Novak's rebound rate is barely half of Hilton Armstrong's. Yeah. Consider this the last last resort.
Donyell Marshall- DMarsh is another three point specialist, but he's been a stellar defensive rebounder throughout his career. The issues clearly are that he's 36 years old, and he's nearing retirement. Toss in a recent comment about how he'd want to come in and mentor guys if he joined a new team (nothing on actually playing), and you don't have a great combination.
Michael Ruffin- He's undersized but a fantastic rebounder on offense and defense. The question with him is playing time. He only got 11 games last year, 46 the year before, and 30 before that. Nobody knows how he'd hold up over 82, especially now that he's on the wrong side of 30.
Ryan Bowen- Great hustle, but I don't think I need to elaborate much here.
Shavlik Randolph- Randolph only got in 89 games in his first 4 years in the league. But he's shown some serious potential on the boards. The risk is that if we pin our one rebounding hope on the 25 year old and he blows up, well, we won't be in great shape.
Robert Swift- Showed lots of potential, once upon a time. He's the madly tattooed, infinitely riskier Shavlik Randolph.
Saer Sene- 47 games in three years. He'll be mad cheap, but he's 7'0" and weighs 220 pounds. You tell me how that's gonna end up.
Melvin Ely- Yeah.
Ryan Hollins- I rank Hollins somewhere between Last Resorts and the next category. He's a great shot blocker with good timing, and while he isn't the most impressive defensive boarder, his offensive figures are nice. He brings great energy to both sides of the floor. With Eric Dampier rumored to be on his way out of Dallas, I wonder how much the Mavs will spend to keep him. My feeling is they like him a good bit... and Hollins is only worth it if he comes cheap.
Lorenzen Wright- With age, his offensive boarding figures have slipped badly. And last year, not one, not two, but three teams (ATL, SAC, CLE) tossed him in the their respective trash cans. He brings size (6'11), if not bulk (225), and he has a career full of good defensive rebounding. One of the better Last Resort picks, though it wouldn't be a flashy signing at all.
Adonal Foyle- And if you thought Lorenzen was the antithesis of all things stylish, well, apparently, you've never seen this guy. Most famous for clanging an open 7 footer off the side of the backboard, Foyle's actually a decent option. The problem here is that he spent most of last year injured. Not sure the Hornets are willing to gamble on a 34 year old's health.
Sean Marks- I think Marks is a last resort, not because of his play necessarily, but because it wouldn't go over well with the fans. Most Hornets' supporters are looking for a front court overhaul. The truth is, Marks' 9/18/13.5 rebounding split from last year wasn't shabby at all. An understatedly decent last resort option
Theo Ratliff- Ratliff hasn't been discussed in a basketball context ever since he legally changed his name to The Expiring Contract of Theo Ratliff some time in 2004. Though the dude is older than my pet rock, he provided Philadelphia some boards and some blocks last year. Overall, he's way too old to be considered a good signing.
Johan Petro- I'd rank the Denver center higher (his rebounding numbers are terrific) but he seemingly never plays, and he is straight up horrible at basketball. A center with a 43% true shooting percentage? Unbelievably atrocious.
Stromile Swift- From 2000-2008, SS was a serviceable player. Great rebounder, good shot blocker, coudl even put the ball in the bucket unassisted, once a month. Suddenly everybody forgot about him, and he played nineteen of the most anonymous games in NBA history with NJN and PHO last season. One of those guys where if he goes to the Knicks, everyone will rag on them for getting another overpaid bust, and if he goes to the Spurs, everyone will praise them for getting another underpaid overachiever. If he goes to New Orleans? Who knows.
Walter Herrmann- Imagine Hilton Armstrong with range. (If you can actually do this, I have just one question: are you on drugs?)

"Yeah If We Got Him, Sweet... But We're Not Getting Him"

Glen Davis- Boston is going to keep him. Danny Ainge will re-sign him. Kevin Garnett will continue to make him cry. I don't see many ways around this. Plus, his rebounding is mediocre, his offensive abilities are vastly overrated on the strength of one or two jumpers he made in the playoffs, and he really isn't that great at anything else. So "If we got him, sweet" would probably not be an accurate description of Glen Davis, now that I think about it.
Joe Beast- aka Joe Smith to those unacquainted with his hip hop skills. Smith is kind of like Davis in that his team is probably going to keep him (I can't see Cleveland performing a single action that does not directly contribute towards the appeasement of the Great One). Smith is also kind of not like Davis in that he's actually good at basketball.
Antonio McDyess- Dice is likely out of the Pistons' price range this summer, though they have said they want to keep him. He made 6 million+ last year. I know there's always the chance he takes a pay cut to join a contender... but who really considers the Hornets a contender now any way?
Chris Andersen- The league leader in block rate will be getting some sort of financial upgrade, and probably one from Denver. If not, there will be plenty of teams just salivating at the thought of overpaying the 31 year old.
Hakim Warrick- Warrick is another guy in line for an upgrade on his 1.5 million a year salary. He's not the most efficient scorer, but I'd say he's the most underrated foul drawer in the entire league (6.6 FTA/36, which would be 0.3 more than Chris Paul, without the aid of superstar calls). He's a decent rebounder too. If Memphis doesn't realize what they have on their hands, plenty of others will do the realizing for them.
Marcin Gortat- If recent rumors are to be believed, the Magic are in hot pursuit of Rasheed Wallace and/or Brandon Bass. It sure sounds like they're gearing up to lose their backup power forward. The Gortat situation is a tricky one to read. On the one hand, he made under a million dollars last year. On the other hand, he had a great postseason and pretty much the entire NBA now knows about him. Positives: beastly rebounder, very efficient scorer, brings terrific energy. Downside: fouls a lot, but who really cares. But all this misses a crucial point- several teams have already reportedly discussed offering Gortat a large part of their midlevel exceptions (five million plus).

"Maybe They'll Forgive Us For Not Taking Blair Now"

Radoslav Nesterovic- aka Rasho to those unacquainted with Slovenian. Nesterovic is one of the few 30+ options I wouldn't mind. He has size (7'), bulk (250), and the career rebounding split (10/17/13) to warrant a serious look. The biggest issue would be salary. He made 7 million+ last year alone, and he hasn't earned below 2.5 mil since 2002-2003. If he agreed to take a pay cut with us, that'd be terrific.
Aaron Gray- It's universally agreed that Aaron Gray sucks, but he could help us out big time in the rebounding department. With a 14/22/18 split last year, he would bring rebounding figures that very few free agent bigs could match. He should be dirt cheap (making less than half a million last year on a second rounder contract). With a lot of teams looking at the flashier names, we're likely to receive less competition to sign him. And of course, the kicker is that he's a big from the University of Pittsburgh, something a lot of people seemed to want around these parts.
Shelden Williams- I've always loved Williams. Seemingly not in possession of a neck, he'd be the perfect complement to Hilton "The Ostrich" Armstrong. He posted super awesome terrific rebounding figures with ATL his rookie year before they moved him to Sacramento. He finished last year in Minnesota. He seems universally unwanted, but he'd be a tremendous bargain for the Hornets.
Maceo Baston- Baston's first salary was 20,000 with the Chicago Bulls in 1999. So I'm thinking he might be down to make a couple million with us next year. Last year with Toronto, he posted an 11/15/13 rebounding split in 27 games. He draws fouls at a decent rate and has a nice offensive game. He can also block a few shots here and there. The biggest problem is his size- 6'9" and 215 pounds; I don't know how long he can hold up.
Chris Mihm- Mihm has posted very, very nice rebounding numbers throughout his career. (a career 11/19/14 split). I thought we'd seen the last of him after his sparring session with D.J. Mbenga, but who knows. Could be an attractive option, given the lack of competition and low price.
Jamaal Magloire- 14/24/19 rebounding split last year. That's all you gotta know about the Big Cat. He will rebound the hell out of that ball.
James Singleton- Thanks to reader Scott for e-mailing to me about Singleton. Personally, this would be one of my favorite signings if it happened. Singleton, who broke into the League as a swingman, has seriously bulked up in recent years. He posted a 12/21/16 rebounding split with Dallas last year, terrific numbers for any player, let alone one making the minimum. He was also very efficient at putting the ball in the bucket (the most efficient out of any of the 30 on this list). Want more? He didn't turn the ball over, and Dallas put a fair bit of responsibility on him when he was in the game. And, oh yeah, he has three point range. Unfortunately, it appears we have compeition. Both my Dallas contacts confirmed that the Mavs have definite interest in bringing him back next season, and Singleton seems to like his situation there too. Don't know if it will happen, but Singleton would be an amazing, cheap add.

"The Heavens Have Smiled Upon Us"

Chris Wilcox- Wilcox parlayed a terrific contract year with the Clips into an overpaid two year stint with the SuperThunder. This summer, he's likely to return to his rightful tax bracket, and if so, the Hornets stand to benefit. At a career 9/20/14 rebounding split, Melvin Ely's twin would make Melvin himself a distant memory. Wilcox can also jump out the gym, so Chris Paul could still have an alley-oop partner when he's on the floor with the bench and Tyson's off. Wilcox's defense has been questioned repeatedly... but dude's trying to make the New Orleans Hornets' bench, not the All Defense team. I'd take him in a heartbeat, providing he agrees to slash his salary to the 2 million range.
Ike Diogu- Enter Mr. Diogu. I like Ike, and you should too. He never really got a chance with the GSW, or the IND, or the POR. Finally, he got some minutes with SAC last year, and they were predictably glorious. In the last two games, he dropped 32 on Denver, and 28 on Minnesota (oh, what's that you say about Denver resting its starters and Al Jefferson being injured? I can't really hear you, you're going to have to speak louder). He can rebound, and he draws fouls like a maniac. While he's kind of foul-prone, he doesn't turn the ball over. The kicker? His full name is Ikechukwa Somotochukwa Diogu. Pau Gasol is already recoiling in fear.
Drew Gooden- For a while there, it appeared Gooden's basketball ability had taken a back seat to him cultivating that ridiculous beard. But now all is well. Ever since he left the company of the Great Shining Internationally Renowned Supreme Basketball Talent, Gooden's been looking on the up and up. Rebounding last year? Try 10.4/22.6/16.6. 52.6% true shooting. 11.7% turnovers. 4.0 FTA/36 minutes. The one flaw is that he's lost all ability to put the ball in the bucket from the floor... but I can excuse that. Another downside: Signing the 27 year old Gooden would probably cement Jeff Bower's place as the Greatest GM in the History of Western Civilization.

So there you have it.

50 options -> 30 reasonable options -> 25 actually reasonable options -> 9 actually reasonable and good options -> 3 actually reasonable and very good options. Happy shopping.

Preview of Bobcats at Timberwolves

David Arnott — Sat, 14 Mar 2009 22:13:27 -0000

At this late stage in the season, the Minnesota Timberwolves are all future. The present only serves as a means for securing a beautiful future.

With Al Jefferson done for the year, Kevin Love has been left to fend for himself, and goodness has he become a force. On points, rebounds, and assists alone, he's already matched or exceeded Emeka Okafor's best season. And he shoots 78% from the line. Love has a long way to go to be the defensive presence Emeka is, but there's no doubt he's already a starting-quality NBA big man.

Jefferson and Love will be the foundation of the T-Wolves' rebirth. Assuming health for the next five years, Minnesota won't have to worry about adding to their front court and can concentrate on finding back court pieces to complement their two stars.

===

For tonight:

-- Rashad McCants has been traded, so we'll be deprived of his comedy stylings, including his propensity to throw chalk in the air and do the whole entering the game bit exactly like LeBron.

-- Did you know that Kevin Ollie has played more games in the NBA than all but four other UConn players?

-- Calvin Booth played for 40 seconds in one game this year. And he looks shockingly similar to John Kerry.

-- Randy Foye has upped his scoring and become a useful starting point guard almost entirely on the strength of getting to the line at three times the rate he used to.

-- None of the players mentioned already played in the Timberwolves' last game, against the Knicks.

-- Emeka vs. K-Love is a good matchup for us. Shutting him down leaves the likes of Ryan Gomes, Craig Smith, and (shudder) Brian Cardinal to pick up the slack.

-- That said, I'm always scared out of my mind when playing Mike Miller's teams that he's going to have one of those unstoppable nights. Bah. Perhaps he's losing interest by now?

Every Little Step

Stop-n-Pop — Thu, 19 Feb 2009 18:05:35 -0000

And here we thought that Shaddy could never be moved for anything but a toaster. Who would have thunk it? We'll have more on the trade in a bit but I just wanted to dump a few links on Bobby Brown, as he's something of an unknown to Wolves fans.

Here is his Draft Express page.

Draft Express even caught up with Brown during one of his workouts.

Here is his 82Games page. (You may want to shield your eyes from some of those numbers.)

Here is his Basketball Reference page.

Here is his Basketball Prospectus card page.

Here is the Kings' Knickerblogger page.

And, last but not least, here is his Basketball Value page. Please, use caution when reading. It's not good...not good at all.

It will be interesting to see if the team buys him out or not. Certainly someone like Blake Ahearn could bring just as much to the table (if not more) than Mr. Brown.

Until later.

This is not going to be pretty

Stop-n-Pop — Wed, 11 Feb 2009 16:54:29 -0000

I don't know what else to say about last night's game. It was ugly. Both teams were without their best players and the Wolves had the look of a squad who didn't really know how to play with one another. We've been talking about the importance of help defense all year long, but....well, you do need to know how to play man defense to a certain extent. You can't switch on everybody.

The Raptors didn't figure out the switch trick until after halftime, when they were treated to a buffet of open layups and 3 balls. Again, what else can you say about a game like this? Let's try out a few bullet points:

Positives:

They only had 7 turnovers
Randy Foye clearly understands the new pecking order
They still won the battle on the offensive glass
They won the free throw battle

Negatives:

Only 9 minutes for Collins, Booth, or Madsen when Kevin Love is the only legit front court player out there.
Rashad McCants had the flu. Should this be in the positive category? I can no longer tell with McCants. Perhaps I have a case of Shaddyfreude. He does that to people.
Kevin Love is not a 35 mpg player right now.
Sebastian Telfair and Foye are not 40 mpg players.

One of the most notable things about last night's game was that Love's greatest asset--his ability to operate as an upper level gap filler--was neutralized by having to play next to one pole (Foye) rather than in between two (Foye and Big Al). He's a 20 year old rookie big who excels at rebounding, ball movement, help defense, and hustle. When he gains more leg strength and masters the art of the 15-17 foot jump shot, he'll be the type of guy that can better handle this type of load, but for now...35+ mpg could get ugly on his front as well. Plus, at this point in the game, the low post ain't exactly his thing. Here's hoping that the Wolves install some more 4 out or 5 out sets after the All Star game. Keep Love in the high post and run some dribble drives off the perimeter.

As for Mike Miller, I'm of the opinion that he should be aggressively shopped before the deadline. With rumors that NOLA is going broke, with a bad economy and several restricted free agents about to hit the market, and with Phoenix looking to blow things up and wanting specific assets in return (ones that Golden State and Chicago are hard pressed to fill individually), the Wolves are in prime shape to get something done. When teams are talking about getting rid of Tyson Chandler and trading Raymond Felton for Jamaal Tinsley, and when the season is shaping up to be nothing more than a string of pickup-level games, making a fairly decent sized move may be the only way to keep this thing interesting moving forward. Plus, it makes sense as far as the long term prospects of this club are concerned. The Wolves have a nice perimeter asset (Miller), @ $10 mil in expiring contracts (Shaddy + Collins), 4 potential 1st rounders, and a stashed Euro. If they had their eye on an 09/10 free agent, now is the time to make it happen, especially with a bad economy and teams looking to part ways with upcoming restricted free agents so that they can get something in return.

Finally, since we're staring at the very real possibility of fewer than 5 wins from here on out, how can fans judge success on this squad? What will you be looking for?

Until later.

Down to 1 1/2

Stop-n-Pop — Mon, 09 Feb 2009 15:24:36 -0000

Let's forget about the internals of the past two games for a moment. The Wolves lost 2 in a row way down south to two teams that were either athletically inferior (Houston--their announcers were flabbergasted that the Rockets looked so slow next to the Wolves) or decimated (NOLA). How they did so was less important in terms of x's and o's as it is with personnel decisions and talent.

Over their last 10 games, Randy Foye is averaging 40.3 mpg on .344/.317 shooting, Ryan Gomes is going for 34.2 mpg with .400/.318 from the floor, Sebastian Telfair is chalking up 32.9 mpg on .356/.308 shooting, and Mike Miller racked up 30.8 mpg and .612/.429 shooting percentages.

Because he's in his 3rd year of play, it's sometimes hard to remember just how little Randy has actually played in this league:

Totals

Glossary ▪ ▪ ▪ Click column headers to sort

Season	Age	Tm	Lg	G	GS	MP	FG	FGA	FG%	3P	3PA	3P%	FT	FTA	FT%	ORB	DRB	TRB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	PTS
2006-07	23	MIN	NBA	82	12	1879	300	691	.434	68	185	.368	164	192	.854	49	169	218	232	53	21	152	184	832
2007-08	24	MIN	NBA	39	31	1259	198	462	.429	61	148	.412	53	65	.815	13	115	128	164	36	3	79	102	510
2008-09	25	MIN	NBA	50	45	1803	282	694	.406	70	208	.337	159	186	.855	23	137	160	237	55	20	114	147	793
Career			NBA	171	88	4941	780	1847	.422	199	541	.368	376	443	.849	85	421	506	633	144	44	345	433	2135

In 2-3 games he should have career highs in minutes played, FGA, FG, and just about every net metric you can get your hands on. With Corey Brewer and Kevin Ollie down and out, and with Rashad McCants in the doghouse and Rodney Carney strangely down the bench, the Wolves' back court rotation--who are, with the exception of Foye, bench players--is being run into the ground. And, as hinted at above, the minutes Foye is putting up are especially troubling. Britt puts it nicely here:

People talk about the rookie wall, but Foye is entering unprecedented territory in terms of his own workload. He's already started more games than in the previous two years of his pro career combined, and, if his current minutes-per-game pace holds, will set a career high for court time in Minnesota's second game back from the all star break. As it is, he's already logged 1803 minutes this year, versus 1879 his rookie season and 1259 in his injury-truncated sophomore campaign. That time has taken its toll. Foye sank at least half his shot attempts in 11 of the 15 games from December 20 to January 13--and not once in the ten games since then. In those 15 games when he was burning up the twine, Foye eclipsed the 40-minute mark just 4 times and logged less than 34 minutes 6 times. In the ten games that he's been too pooped to pop since then, he's logged at least 40 minutes in seven of them, and never less than Sunday's 34:45.

The guy is gassed. I know the All Star break is 1 game away, but what happens down the stretch if the status quo remains? More importantly, what impact does the lack of personnel in the back court have on the possibility of moving Mike Miller and Rashad McCants before the trade deadline? Some of these questions may be a bit easier to answer after the team receives the results of Al Jefferson's MRI test later on today or tomorrow.

As if the back court minutes issues couldn't get any worse, they have reared their head in the front court as well. With Craig Smith out for the foreseeable future, and with Jason Collins/Calvin Booth/Mark Madsen planted firmly at the end of the bench, Kevin Love is shaping up to be the team's only legit front court player when the squad takes the floor against Toronto tomorrow night. Think about that for a moment. When the Wolves suit up against the Raptors, they may have one and a half starters: Love and a worn-down Foye. The game against the Raps should be exhibit 1A in any argument that this team suffers from an overall talent gap, not one of height, size, or other assorted small ball excuses. This team struggles because Gomes, Bassy, and Miller are not starters. This team struggles because even if he were healthy, Craig Smith is not a suitable backup to Jefferson and Love. This team struggles because it does not have depth at the point. This team struggles because it does not have depth in the front court. This team struggles because it does not have depth on the wing.

This is shaping up to be one of the most disappointing aspects of the remainder of the season. How do you gauge team play in such a setting? How can you get a sense of the direction in which this team is headed if Jefferson joins Brewer on the bench and Foye is pushed back on the ball for significant portions of each game? Perhaps this is a silly question. After all, how much more do we need to see to know that this team needs an upgrade at the 1, 3, and backup 4/5? Draft a point and a 3rd big and move what you can/sign a real 3.

Let's go back to the Miller thing for a second. Miller is playing his best ball of the season. Together with Shaddy's contract, the Wolves can package $11.6 million of decent perimeter player contracts. They can actually go up to 125% + 100k to this number. How about a sign and trade with Atlanta for Marvin Williams (Miller, Shaddy, + Utah pick for Williams at $10 mil/year)? Let's get creative. It is rumored that NOLA is about broke. How about offering them Nikola Pekovic, Rashad McCants, Jason Collins, Calvin Booth, and the Utah pick for Tyson Chandler? That's 3 expiring deals, 1 young Euro big and a draft pick for a player they may not be able to afford. You get the picture. (UPDATE: McCleak beat me to the punch in the FanPosts.) The big question here is whether or not their sudden depth problems will deter them from making solid long term decisions. If Al Jefferson is going to miss an extended amount of time, will the Wolves close ranks and roll with what they have or will they be prodded to move what they can in what will likely end up being, in terms of wins, a lost 30 games to close out the season?

Whatever it is, here's hoping that Al's injury is just a scratch and that he'll be out there as soon as possible.

Until later.

Mega Deal Monday, the David Lee Edition

Stop-n-Pop — Mon, 05 Jan 2009 11:00:06 -0000

This little tidbit on RealGM caught my eye yesterday:

Several sources with knowledge of the situation have told Tommy Dee that the Portland Trailblazers are getting serious about trading for David Lee.

The Blazers’ organization feels Lee’s style of play would fit perfectly in Portland as he can play in both the half court system and get out and run as well as any forward in the NBA.

The Knicks may be interested in Jerryd Bayless, who has fallen behind Sergio Rodriguez on their depth chart, and whom the team passed on in this year’s draft or Rodriguez, but the combination of either and a first round pick won’t be enough to entice Walsh. This is where a third team may get involved.

And here come the Fantasy GM Wolves!!!

I'm not really sure how a 3rd team could add much to this equation, as Bayless and Lee can simply be traded straight up and any addition would simply be another tacked-on trade that could survive on its own...but here's a very complicated idea that just may...well, it will never happen:

To the Blazers:

Jason Collins
David Lee
Rodney Carney

To the Knicks:

S. Randolph
Jerryd Bayless
Mike Miller
Calvin Booth
Travis Outlaw

To the Wolves:

Starbury
Nic Batum
Conditional #1 from one team, #2 from other

Here's something a bit more realistic:

To the Blazers:

David Lee

To the Knicks:

Mike Miller
Jerryd Bayless

To the Wolves:

Nic Batum
#2 picks from both Knicks and Blazers

That's about as good as I can come up with for a deal that could simply happen with 1 player for another. I don't think I'd pull the trigger on either deal. The only good thing about the 2nd one is that Miller's deal gets swapped out a year earlier. Would Bayless have to come to the Wolves in order to make this somewhat interesting? I don't know how many of our readers remember last year's draft build up, but there wasn't a single player I was more opposed to than Bayless. Do. Not. Want.

Any other ideas?

Game Day: A match of equals

Stop-n-Pop — Mon, 01 Dec 2008 13:52:40 -0000

While MJ may have soared high above Kevin McHale on the court, he has been the Iron Ranger's equal in the front office, delivering his teams a collection of mismatched players and crazy draft picks like Kwame Brown and Adam Morrison.

Tonight in Charlotte the creations of these two Hall of Fame players/Hall of Shame GMs will square off in a battle of 11-loss squads.

Will the Iron Ranger make another road trip? Will Shaddy get any burn in his home town? Will he make the return trip? Are the two teams working on exchanging a few of their mismatched pieces with one another? If such a trade is made will the pieces be any less mismatched on their new teams? Will MJ make his way off the golf course to return the Iron Ranger's phone call? Will the Iron Ranger make his way out of his deer blind to make the call? Will Papa Glen finally put an end to the madness? The answers to these questions and many more....tonight, in Charlotte.

In the spirit of yesterday's inaugural Mega-Deal Monday (on a Sunday), here's an honest-to-Pete Mega-Deal Monday, the Charlotte/Minny edition:

To the Bobcats:

Rashad McCants
Jason Collins
Corey Brewer
Calvin Booth
conditional 1st rounder

To the Wolves:

Raymond Felton
Gerald Wallace
Alexis Ajinca

I'm sure the 'Cats would love to get rid of Morrison, and he's everything McHale loves in a player, but I'm hoping against what I suspect is the Iron Ranger's main target should he really be considering a deal with the Bobcats. The "I just have to have that Morrison kid" thought-bubble is probably visible above his head at this point. Just thinking of how the FO would try to spin any trade that brings the team Mr. Morrison makes me chuckle.

What say you?

UPDATE: Looking around at last year's games against the 'Cats, I was reminded of the fact that the Wolves' last game against Charlotte featured one of the craziest shooting nights I have ever seen, with Charlotte posting an amazing 72% true shooting percentage.

Charlotte beat the Wolves despite attempting nearly 30 fewer shots than Minnesota. They also had 3 players with at least 8 shots shoot over 70% from the floor (unadjusted for TS or eFG). Their worst shooters were Raymond Felton and Earl Boykins...who each had an eFG of 50%. Their highest volume shooter (Jason Richardson) had an eFG of 64% on 21 shots. If you add in his free throws (9-12) he had a TS% of just over 68%.

After 10

Stop-n-Pop — Fri, 21 Nov 2008 16:41:20 -0000

(Ed: This post is best viewed in the wide format.)

	Last Year (ranking)	This Year (ranking)	Diff (Improve/Backwards)
OE	103.8 (27)	104.3 (18)	+0.5 (I)
DE	111.2 (27)	108.4 (26)	-2.8 (I)
Pace	91.9 (13)	90.6 (18)	-1.3
eFG	48.4 (20)	46.2 (24)	-2.2 (B)
deFG	51.3 (26)	49.3 (23)	-2 (I)
OReb%	27.5 (11)	25.8 (20)	-1.7 (B)
dOreb%	26.4 (14)	28.4 (22)	+2 (B)
FTA diff	-6.9 (30)	-2.7 (24)	+4.2 (I)
FTM diff	-6.0 (30)	-1.3 (20)	+4.7 (I)
Pts for	95.6 (26)	97.4 (14)	+1.8 (I)
Pts against	102.4 (21)	101.3 (25)	-1.1 (I)
Pt diff	-6.8 (26)	-3.9 (24)	+2.9 (I)
TO	15.7 (20)	13.7 (1)	-2 (I)
dTO	14.6 (21)	14.0 (27)	-0.6 (B)
record	2-8	2-8	even

Production			On Court/Off Court			Roland
Player	Min	Own	Opp	Net	On	Off	Net	Rating
Jefferson	74%	24.3	17.6	+6.7	-0.6	-16.9	+16.3	+9.1
Collins	7%	7.0	9.4	-2.4	+6.3	-5.6	+11.9	+1.2
Ollie	19%	15.6	14.2	+1.4	-7.9	-4.1	-3.8	+0.1
Brewer	45%	10.2	14.4	-4.2	+0.5	-9.2	+9.6	-0.7
Love	49%	15.3	19.1	-3.9	-0.9	-8.6	+7.8	-0.9
McCants	39%	12.9	12.8	+0.1	-7.4	-3.2	-4.3	-1.0
Miller	73%	15.5	15.5	-0.1	-7.1	+1.2	-8.3	-2.1
Foye	69%	9.5	17.6	-8.0	-0.9	-13.6	+12.7	-2.8
Smith	35%	13.6	16.4	-2.7	-12.0	-1.0	-11.0	-4.8
Gomes	52%	12.8	14.7	-1.9	-12.1	+3.2	-15.3	-5.3
Cardinal	1%	-4.9	22.7	-27.6	+50.9	-5.4	+56.3	-6.6
Carney	7%	13.5	20.9	-7.4	-16.0	-3.9	-12.1	-8.5
Telfair	27%	9.2	24.1	-14.9	-8.1	-3.7	-4.4	-12.3
Madsen	3%	4.3	37.0	-32.7	-14.8	-4.5	-10.3	-27.1

Individual Player Floor Time statistics

Player	Min	+/-	Off	Def	Net48	W	L	Win%
Cardinal	1%	+5	162.8	111.9	+50.9	1	0	100
Collins	6%	+4	81.7	75.4	+6.3	2	0	100
Brewer	44%	+2	96.6	96.1	+0.5	5	4	55.6
Love	49%	-4	100.0	100.9	-0.9	3	4	42.9
Madsen	2%	-4	77.8	92.7	-14.8	0	1	0.0
Jefferson	73%	-4	94.9	95.5	-0.6	3	5	37.5
Foye	69%	-6	95.1	96.0	-0.9	3	5	37.5
Carney	7%	-11	90.3	106.3	-16.0	2	2	50.0
Ollie	19%	-14	87.1	95.0	-7.9	2	4	33.3
Telfair	26%	-20	100.1	108.2	-8.1	0	5	0.0
McCants	39%	-27	90.5	97.9	-7.4	3	4	42.9
Smith	34%	-39	87.3	99.3	-12.0	3	6	33.3
Miller	72%	-48	94.2	101.3	-7.1	1	7	12.5
Gomes	52%	-59	87.9	100.0	-12.1	1	8	11.1

Shooting Details

	Offense				Defense
Shot	Att.	eFG%	Ast	Pts	Att.	eFG%	Ast	Pts
Jump	61%	.388	68%	41.0	71%	.446	58%	52.2
Close	34%	.521	61%	30.4	23%	.566	38%	21.8
Dunk	3%	1.000	78%	5.1	4%	.897	81%	5.8
Tips	3%	.550	0%	2.4	2%	.643	0%	2.0
All	100%	.455	64%	79.0	100%	.495	52%	81.8

Team Position Stats

08-09	Ranks (Net)						PER Difference
POS	Pts	FG%	Reb	Ast	T/O	FTA	PER	Opp	Rank
PG	30	30	27	2	6	4	10.7	18.8	30
SG	14	7	20	11	6	24	17.3	16.5	8
SF	26	24	12	22	8	23	13.4	15.7	21
PF	22	25	25	2	17	21	15.9	21.2	27
C	2	23	24	12	21	5	22.2	18.1	8

Top Five-Man Floor Units

#	Unit	Min	Off	Def	+/-	W	L	Win%
1	Foye-Miller-Brewer-Gomes-Jefferson	71	0.98	1.04	-9	2	3	40.0
2	Telfair-Miller-Brewer-Love-Jefferson	48	1.30	1.19	+8	4	0	100
3	Foye-Miller-Brewer-Love-Jefferson	24	1.15	1.08	+0	2	3	40.0
4	Foye-McCants-Miller-Gomes-Jefferson	18	0.84	0.82	+2	4	3	57.1
5	Telfair-Foye-Miller-Love-Jefferson	17	1.20	1.07	+3	2	1	66.6
6	Foye-McCants-Gomes-Smith-Jefferson	16	1.07	1.06	+0	2	1	66.6
7	Ollie-McCants-Carney-Smith-Love	14	1.20	0.89	+8	2	0	100
8	Foye-Miller-Gomes-Jefferson-Collins	11	1.19	0.80	+11	1	0	100
9	Foye-Miller-Gomes-Smith-Jefferson	9	0.91	1.25	-4	1	2	33.3
10	Foye-McCants-Miller-Smith-Jefferson	8	1.01	1.11	-3	0	1	0.0

Top Five-Man Floor Units, Details

#	Unit	eFG	eFGA	FTA	Close	dClose	Reb	T/O
1	Foye-Miller-Brewer-Gomes-Jefferson	.461	.500	+4	38%	35%	93%	+2%
2	Telfair-Miller-Brewer-Love-Jefferson	.523	.565	+7	37%	25%	128%	-2%
3	Foye-Miller-Brewer-Love-Jefferson	.511	.488	-4	34%	24%	115%	-1%
4	Foye-McCants-Miller-Gomes-Jefferson	.338	.214	-15	32%	29%	86%	+3%
5	Telfair-Foye-Miller-Love-Jefferson	.500	.426	-9	39%	30%	100%	+9%
6	Foye-McCants-Gomes-Smith-Jefferson	.446	.455	-5	43%	23%	73%	+21%
7	Ollie-McCants-Carney-Smith-Love	.483	.391	-7	47%	22%	86%	+19%
8	Foye-Miller-Gomes-Jefferson-Collins	.639	.381	+6	50%	38%	76%	+7%
9	Foye-Miller-Gomes-Smith-Jefferson	.438	.536	-4	38%	36%	61%	+13%
10	Foye-McCants-Miller-Smith-Jefferson	.400	.467	-1	60%	33%	123%	-7%

Team Stats:

Team	Min	Poss For	Poss Opp	Pts For	Pts Opp	Off Rtg	Def Rtg	Overall Rtg		OReb For	OReb Opp	DReb For	DReb Opp	OReb Rate	DReb Rate
MIN	495.00	936	935	974	1013	104.06	108.34	-4.28		147	144	328	351	29.52%	69.49%

Team Offensive Shooting Detail stats:

	3 pointers	2 pointers	Inside Shots
attempts	18%	42%	39%
fg%	.289	.370	.565
ast	96%	59%	57%
blk	0%	5%	9%
pts	14.1	28.0	40.0

Dunks: 23

And 1: 21

Foul: 11%

Team Defensive Shooting Detail stats:

	3 point shots	2 point shots	Inside Shots
att	18%	52%	28%
fg%	.364	.421	.645
ast	84%	43%	42%
blk	1%	4%	10%
pts	16.7	37.1	31.1

Dunks: 17

And 1: 16

Foul: 11%

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I'll be posting these stats every 10 games so that we can keep track of what is and is not improving with Our Beloved Puppies Zombies. A few things jumped out at me:

Take a look at how many inside and 2 point shots the Wolves allow without an assist. They rank 25th in the league in fewest assisted 2 pointers and 27th in the league in fewest assisted inside shots. In other words, they are getting broke the hell down by individual players. We've seen it all year; guys like Kevin Martin and Brandon Roy are able to get what they want when they want it.
The Wolves don't turn the ball over a lot but they also don't force a lot of turnovers. Even in areas where the Wolves are very good (not turning the ball over) they don't cause enough of a differential on the other end of the court to make it matter. It's time for some gambling defense. It's also time for a quicker offense.
The Wolves are losing this year because of offense. They are an improved defensive team but they are leaving a lot of points on the board in terms of dissonance between offensive efficiency and production. They aren't shooting particularly well and they have a slower pace than last year. At the beginning of the year, I said that the main goal for this team was a neutral OE/DE differential of somewhere between 108-108 pts/100 possessions. Right now the Wolves are meeting the defensive part of this equation but not the offensive one. An increased pace + a definite 4th quarter pecking order can go a long way to helping this statistical dream become a reality.

What do you guys notice?

Oh yeah, KG is back in town.

UPDATE: We're also going to be keeping track of Ryan Gomes at the 4. He's putting up some pretty ugly numbers at that position while playing 30% of the team's minutes there. With no further delay, here you go:

Ryan Gomes:

Player Floor Time Stats by Position

Position	Min	Net Pts	Off	Def	Net48	W	L	Win%
PG
SG
SF	21%	-10	85.4	90.5	-5.1	2	2	50%
PF	30%	-54	87.7	106.5	-18.8	2	6	25%
C	0%	+3	162.3	108.2	54.1	1	0	100%

Net 48-Minute Production by Position

Position	FGA	eFG%	FTA	iFG	Reb	Ast	T/O	Blk	PF	Pts	PER*
PG
SG
SF	-0.5	+0.163	-6.1	+1%	-2.5	+0.0	-0.5	+0.0	+0.5	+1.0	+2.1
PF	+5.0	-0.118	-8.2	-15%	-2.5	+2.8	+0.0	-0.7	+0.7	-5.3	-9.6
C	+0.0	+0.000	+0.0	+0%	-13.5	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0

UPDATE ii: I forgot to put in the stat links.