SB Nation - Luke Walton

Pardon Our Bench

DexterFishmore — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 17:30:11 -0000

About a month into the season, we're starting to know some things about the Los Angeles Lakers. It's still only November, sure. We don't know how strong they'll ultimately be compared to other league powers. But we can start to see the contours of a typical night at the office.

Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum are a manly inside pair and too much for most teams to handle. Kobe Bryant is still a lethal scorer and playmaking force. Ron Artest is still a splendid defender, and on any given night either he or Lamar Odom will be good for 15 or more points. All of the above was on display against a pathetically overmatched New York Knicks team last night.

And then there's the bench. I'm really sorry to do this, but it's time we talked about the bench. We've put this off long enough.

First, let's be clear who we're talking about. Although Lamar doesn't start when the team's fully healthy, he does play starter's minutes, and his talent and production are not subject to any serious debate. He hasn't always been great so far this year, but we know he's not the problem. When Lakers fans grumble about "the bench," Lamar isn't meant to be included.

What we're really talking about is the play of Jordan Farmar, Shannon Brown, Josh Powell, Luke Walton, DJ Mbenga, Adam Morrison and Sasha Vujacic. Of this group, Walton didn't play last night because of his back injury, and Mbenga and Powell got DNP-CDs. The performances of the other four are cast into unflattering relief by their plus-minus numbers. Farmar, Brown, Morrison and Vujacic averaged a -9 in about 10 minutes of action last night. All but Farmar were on the court when the Knicks ripped off an 11-0 run, which dragged Kobe and Ron back into the game with five minutes left.

If you were surprised that the second unit failed to maintain the Lakers' lead, welcome to the wonderful sport of basketball. I hope you enjoyed your first-ever game.

With about two minutes remaining against the Knicks, Lakers play-by-play announcer Joel Meyers asked rhetorically at what point in the season the Laker reserves would "step up." After the game, sideline man Michael Eaves asked Pau how long he thought it would take for the bench to find its "rhythm." These questions contained an unstated assumption that the Laker bench right now is anomalously underperforming, playing worse than what we should reasonably expect. Is that really the case, though? What precisely are we expecting from these guys?

I'm not implying that the second unit is playing well, mind you. Certainly their job description should include being able to hold a lead against the Knicks, at home. But why do people keep expecting them to transform into game-changing shock troops? Isn't it possible that they're not "inconsistent" or "out of sync," but just not that good?

In the table below I've listed, for each of the Laker reserves in question, their PERs for the last two seasons as well as the season so far. And before you start screaming: no, I'm not suggesting that PER be accepted as an end-all, final-word metric. It's just a useful shorthand for a player's overall production and works fine for the present discussion.

Player	2007-08	2008-09	2009-10
Brown	6.6	13.0	12.8
Farmar	15.3	9.9	10.7
Mbenga	9.4	13.9	10.2
Morrison	DNP	5.7	11.2
Powell	10.4	9.9	10.8
Vujacic	14.9	12.7	6.4
Walton	12.2	11.3	15.0

If there's to be improved play from the bench this year, where's it supposed to come from? Luke was the best reserve before his injury; if he's in decent shape when he returns, the situation won't look quite so grim. But who else?

Shannon, DJ and Powell are all basically performing in line with their respective track records. At age 24, Brown likely has some improvement ahead of him, but he's not going to become a Sixth Man of the Year candidate overnight. Farmar, I'd argue as well, is also more or less where we should expect him to be. With each passing game, his performance in 2007-08 looks increasingly flukish, and his performance last season looks like his real baseline.

Adam Morrison has actually been better than we would've guessed, but no one thinks he's a candidate to be even a league-average player. The dude is simply no es bueno. If he's in the NBA next year, it'll be solely due to residual caché from having been a high lottery pick once upon a time.

The real mystery in all this is Sasha Vujacic, who in three years has gone from good to frustrating to radioactively bad. On the one hand, it seems improbable that he'll remain this terrible; someone his age shouldn't completely fall apart absent an injury. On the other hand, he shows no sign of bouncing back any time soon. He's averaging less than 10 minutes a night and has made only two shots in the last five games. It must be getting hard for Phil Jackson to justify even putting him on the court.

What about help from outside? As Ben R pointed out in the comments last night, two available names are Jerry Stackhouse and Wally Sczcerbiak. If those guys had anything at all left in the tank, they wouldn't be available. There's also Allen Iverson, though it's hard to imagine the Lakers voluntarily stepping on that particular land mine.

A deadline trade will be a possibility, the most likely situation involving cutting bait on Farmar and shipping out Morrison's expiring deal. It's not possible at this point to foretell who might be obtainable in return.

The Lakers, we should probably just admit, are stuck with a subpar bench. The reserves aren't about to "step up" or find "consistency." How the Lakers have won games so far, by overwhelming opponents with top-line talent, is how they'll have to get it done in the foreseeable future. Which might, in fact, be plenty good enough.

Lakers-Pistons Preview

DexterFishmore — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 18:00:38 -0000

On the scale of sportswriter adjectives, the Los Angeles Lakers hover somewhere between "shorthanded" and "injury-ravaged." Pau Gasol is improving but still out of commission. Kobe Bryant is playing, but with a hurt groin. Luke Walton has an aching back and is likely out until 2010.

And yet, their Tuesday night opponent, the Detroit Pistons, might be worse off still. Rip Hamilton and Tayshaun Prince, who together dropped the guillotine blade on the Shaq-era Lakers in the 2004 Finals, are both shelved with injuries, and point guard Rodney Stuckey left the Pistons' Sunday night game early with a strained something. (It was either an ankle or a calf, depending on who you ask.) Stuckey will play tonight, but Detroit still runs only eight deep.

And that's only if you count Kwame Brown.

Despite their injury-ravagedness, the Pistons haven't looked too bad so far. In fact, they're the very model of a middle-class NBA team. Their record is 5-5 against an average slate of opponents, and they're 15th in the league in net points. Nothing in those results should embarrass new coach John Kuester. Especially since he's had to give 15 minutes a night to Kwame and 20 to Jonas Jerebko, the only Swedish player in the league.*

And here you were thinking the Lakers' bench sucked.

Prithee take a closer look at the Pistons' team stats, below.** All terms and their significance explained here. League rankings are in parentheses.

*Pace*	87.4 (29th)
*Offensive Rating*	106.8 (13th)
Turnover Rate (Off.)	13.0% (7th)
FTA/FGA (Off.)	0.36 (3rd)
Free Throw % (Off.)	70.2 (28th)
Effective FG % (Off.)	48.7 (19th)
True Shooting % (Off.)	53.0 (20th)
Offensive Rebounding %	27.9 (9th)
*Defensive Rating*	104.7 (15th)
Turnover Rate (Def.)	13.3% (19th)
FTA/FGA (Def.)	0.37 (28th)
Effective FG % (Def.)	46.5 (5th)
True Shooting % (Def.)	51.8 (8th)
Defensive Rebounding %	70.9 (24th)

The Pistons play at a slow pace, as they've seemingly done forever. The offense runs through four perimeter players: Stuckey, new acquisitions Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva and backup PG Will Bynum. Though he's the only one to come off the bench, Bynum might be the best of the group. He's an efficient scorer and has the potential to wreak Aaron Brooks-like havoc on the Laker D.

Stuckey and Gordon throw some different looks at you. The former is a big power guard in the Rajon Rondo mold, while Gordon loves shooting like Kwame loves cake. It wouldn't surprise me to see Ron Artest spend time checking these guys, both to give Kobe a rest on defense and because the Pistons don't have a small forward worth guarding. (Jerebko hardly ever shoots. I told you he's Swedish.)

Speaking of nobody worth guarding, Ben Wallace is back as the Pistons' starting center. He's the same Ben Wallace you remember, but worse. This doesn't mean, though, that Andrew Bynum gets the night off. Stuckey and the other Bynum are both adroit at getting shots in the lane, and as the numbers above show, Detroit's a good offensive rebounding squad. The Lakers are next-to-last in the NBA in defensive rebounding, so... you know. If they feel like hitting the boards tonight that'd be great.

The Laker offense has been a disaster two straight games now. Their shot selection has been bad, their shot making even worse, and not nearly enough effort has been made to pound the ball in to Bynum. The Pistons don't have amazing inside defenders, so Drew could have another big night if the other Lakers don't forget he's on the team. Except for whoever's guarding Fish (most likely Gordon and Will Bynum), there's no position at which the Lakers don't have a matchup edge on offense.

It's unclear, though, exactly how much of a problem Kobe's groin will be. He practiced fully on Monday and says he's OK, but you and I know he hasn't looked the same the last couple games. Detroit doesn't have a Battier-caliber defender, so Tuesday should bring us closer to knowing whether Kobe's just been off lately or, alternatively, whether the groin is a real concern.

We'll also find out how Phil Jackson adjusts the rotation for Luke's absence, which opens up about 10 minutes of playing time. Technically Adam Morrison is next on the small-forward depth chart, but Phil must know he'd be exposed in a bigger role. Instead I expect to see more small lineups, with incrementally more run given to Shannon Brown, Jordan Farmar and Sasha Vujacic.

(Feel free not to explode with delight at this prospect. Until Pau returns, allowing Lamar Odom to spend more time at three, there aren't a ton of great options here.)

Detroit's a team the Lakers should beat, even at less than full strength. If you combined the two teams' rosters, only one Piston (pick one of the guards) would start, and a couple Pistons who get real minutes (Jerebko and Kwame) would play not at all. The Lakers have been so bad the last six quarters, nothing can be taken for granted, but the first three-game losing streak in the Era of Gasol for now looks pretty unlikely.

* - I was going to write that Jerebko is the only Swedish player in NBA history, but it turns out Miles Simon was born there as well.

** - Thanks to Basketball Reference and Hoopdata for the numbers. Excellent sites, both.

Small Forward Positional Preview

Josh Tucker — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 17:00:57 -0000

More photos » by Jeff Lewis - AP

Introducing the toughest, strongest, most formidable back court in the NBA.

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When you're the reigning champions, your first thought is not often your first thought. Bringing back the same team that won the previous year, all healthy and still motivated, is much more important. With that in mind, consider it a positive thing that only one significant player in the Lakers' rotation has changed. Bringing back the same key members at all four other positions, as well as the same bench (though, hopefully sans 2009 funk), is a good thing for the defending champions. If they can keep them healthy, they're the odds-on favorites.

The one question mark, then — at least, when it comes to on-court personnel — is the single position that saw significant change during the off-season: Small Forward. Of course, unless you've had your head in the sand, you know the story well enough. While Trevor Ariza became a key player in the Lakers' 2009 Championship run, he ended up leaving for Houston when the Lakers signed Ron Artest — practically a straight swap, as the two are playing the same position, for the same price, on each other's former teams.

We wish Ariza the best, and he will doubtless have a soft spot in many Laker fans' hearts for many years to come, but the 2009-10 season is upon us, and it's time to look forward. And looking forward, the only question that really matters in all of this is, How do the Lakers look at Small Forward this year?

Let's immediately dispense with the usual drama, shall we? Clearly, we all know that Artest is a wild card, for behavioral reasons as much as anything else. In as much as we can see, Ron Ron is saying all most of the right things, displaying the attitude of someone who is genuinely willing to dispense with the drama in favor of winning a championship. Nonetheless, actions speak louder than words, so only time will tell on this one. Likewise, there is decent reason to believe that his tendencies to hog the ball and jack up shots will be kept under control with the Lakers; his desire to win, and the fact that he'll be playing with a true alpha dog leader in Kobe, under a coach he respects, all strengthen that possibility. But again, we won't really know until we see, will we?

Here at SS&R, we've made our positions pretty clear in favor of this "trade." In as much as we're inclined to peer into our crystal balls, we see maturity and the desire to win overriding Ron's "other" impulses, and we have quite a bit of faith in the leadership of Phil, Kobe, and Artest's good friend Lamar Odom.

And that's it. It's all speculation, and we've had our go at speculating, and now we're done with that. Let's move on to more relevant (not to mention interesting) issues pertaining to the Small Forward position. I'm going to break these down into four sections: offense, defense, match-ups, and versatility.

Offense

The obvious question: Is Ron Artest as good a fit for the Lakers triangle offense as Trevor Ariza was? To an extent, the simple answer is, "No." But then, that answer is really over-simplified, to the point of possibly missing the point entirely.

Yes, Ariza was a better fit for the offense the Lakers ran last year. But stop for a moment and ask yourself this question: When is the last time you remember the Lakers running essentially the same offense two years in a row? The answer is that it's been a while. To Phil Jackson's credit, he has continually done a fantastic job of adapting the offense to fit the needs of the team, and the abilities and strengths of the players. A few years back, that meant putting it all on Kobe, while the youngsters and starting scrubs tried to figure out the offense. More recently, that meant incorporating more of a running game. Last year, in fact, the approach was often to get down the floor quickly, look for a shot out of early offense (not triangle), and then set up the triangle only if there was nothing there.

In fact, many people would tell you that the Lakers don't even run the triangle very much anymore. In the strictest, purest, narrowest sense, that's true to a large extent. It's certainly very different from the offense run by the "threepeat" Lakers that featured Shaq in the post.

The point is that we shouldn't be asking how Artest would fit into last year's offense, because this year's system will be different from last year's. It will be adjusted to fit the strengths of the current roster.

Specifically, that should mean a heavier emphasis on the post game, as the Lakers will have four major post threats in Andrew Bynum, Pau Gasol, Artest, and Kobe Bryant. In fact, Derek Fisher also has a decent post game against smaller point guards, though he doesn't get many opportunities.

There are two points I want to make here. The first is that having what will most likely be the most deadly post game in the league is a Good Thing. There are certain basic rules that generally hold true in basketball. These include things like, defense wins championships, bigger is better, you need a superstar to win a ring, you need a solid big man to win a championship, etc. As far as I'm concerned, dominating the post is "another one of those things" — and this is a team built to dominate in the post.

Specifically, Ron Artest at the small forward position has size and strength that will be challenging for any small forward to defend, and completely disastrous for some. And if you're worried about his ability to fill Ariza's long-boming, precision shooting role, then maybe you should re-check the stats. Last year, he shot an excellent .400 from three-point range. In fact, it was the second-highest three-point percentage of his career — and while I haven't done any in depth studies on it, my first guess would be that some of that was because he played on a team where he was second of third fiddle, receiving spot-up three-point opportunities off of kick-outs from Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady.

So while there may always be concerns about his tendency to get trigger happy and jack up ill-advised shots, I don't think it's quite as easy as some would have you believe to say that Ariza was a better fit for this system. Artest will be able to spread the floor with his good three-point range, and when he's not spotting up, he should be posting up in a system that loves solid post players.

As a quick reminder, let me also point out that there is a significant learning curve to the triangle offense. Ron may not look comfortable yet, and he may not be at his most efficient in the first few months — but do the Lakers a favor and don't overreact if that's the case. Remember, while we as fans hate to lose any game, and hate for our team to play at any less than full potential, the reality is that we can afford for Ron Ron to be learning the offense for most of the year. It really only becomes important that he have it down pat once the playoffs arrive. So don't be too quick to proclaim the "trade" a bad one in mid-November. Give him at least until the All-Star break before you start making judgments on how he fits in the offense.

Finally, while I'm not especially worried about how Artest will fit into the triangle offense, my second point is even more important than all of that. The Lakers offense was devastatingly potent last year. It was similarly so (at times, even more so) the year before. But despite all of that, what was it that drew the primary criticism? What was it that fans, pundits, and critics alike felt should be the primary focus, instead of offense? It was the same thing that has been unanimously cited as the primary reason for the Lakers' 2008 Finals loss: defense and toughness.

Why is it that everybody loves to quote, "Defense wins championships," but as soon as a team like the Lakers makes a move like this one, they're so quick to criticize it ... for offense-related reasons? Notice, you rarely hear people worrying about how Artest will affect the Lakers' defense. Sure, we'll miss those highlight reel steals, but the defense will be fundamentally as solid as before, if not more so. No, the primary complaints regarding Artest (aside from his personality issues) have to do with him hogging the ball, jacking up poor shots, disrupting the offense, etc.

So I ask again, why should this Lakers team — the one that had so much offensive firepower in 2007-08, but not enough defense and toughness — be at all worried about offense? And another, similar question: Do you really expect the Lakers, with all of their weapons, to have trouble scoring? Sure, they might be slightly less efficient offensively than last year's team, but at the end of the day, this team is going to put up points. Period.

So let's put our money where our mouth is, shall we? We say that defense and toughness are more important considerations, especially to this team, than offense. Then let's stop worrying about the offense and focus on how this strengthens the Lakers in those two most important areas. All of which leads me to...

Defense

Trevor Ariza was a good defender, but don't fool yourself. He was not a "great" defender, and he was definitely not an "elite" defender. Most of all, he was not the Lakers' primary or foremost perimeter stopper. I'm sorry, but that was still Kobe. Ariza was an excellent help defender, he played the passing lanes well, and he had a knack for the highlight defensive plays. Given the circumstances under which he made several of those plays — in the playoffs, in tight games, with all of America watching — it is to be expected that his defensive prowess was overblown by hype and highlight.

Ron Artest is in many ways his opposite. You won't find him making many highlight plays, and he is not going to collect a bunch of steals. That's because Ron Artest's approach to defense is much like that of the team he just left, the Houston Rockets. As Dexter informed us going into that playoff series in May, the Rockets were one of the best defensive teams in the league, but it wasn't by virtue of blocking shots or generating steals. It was because they were extremely good at forcing their opponents into less than optimal shots. Their opponents worked hard for the shots they got, and they were often not the shots they would have liked to get.

This is the kind of defense you can expect from Ron Artest. He won't be looking to pick his guy's pocket, but his man will have to work very hard for his shot. When he does get a shot off, it will probably be a contested jumper, and a shot that the Lakers are more than glad for him to take.

This is the kind of defense the Spurs play. It's not about the gimmicky stats, it's about lowering their opponents' field goal percentage. In a lot of ways, it's a question of highlights versus fundamentals. Artest won't get those highlights, but with him on the floor, the Lakers will be able to play more fundamentally solid and sound defense.

Artest is a defensive upgrade for another reason, as well. For the first time, Kobe will no longer be the perimeter stopper for the Lakers. Like I said, some claim that was already the case with Ariza, but they're just crazy. With Artest, that's legitimately true. Remember, Michael Jordan was an excellent defender, but Scottie Pippen was the guy tasked with guarding the other team's best player, and he was their true wing stopper. That freed Jordan up, and having Artest on the Lakers will do the same for Kobe. Since we're so often reminded of the miles Kobe has on his legs, that can only be a good thing.

And of course, while we're at it, Kobe can also relinquish another role that MJ never really had to play — that of enforcer. I'm sure Ron Ron will be hurt if anyone other than Crazy Pills himself gets to play that role. It'll be nice to have a teammate who can (and will) stand up for Kobe, for a change, rather than vice versa.

Finally, Artest provides a major defensive upgrade for certain specific scenarios, which leads me to...

Match-Ups

At the risk of getting ahead of myself — and of inviting Blazer outrage — I'm going to go ahead and go with the general assumption that the only team really capable of posing a genuine threat to the Lakers in the West is the Spurs. Personally, while San Antonio is impressively retooled for the upcoming season, I just don't think they have what it takes to withstand the Lakers' overwhelming arsenal.

Thus, I think L.A. has a good chance of returning, for the third straight year, to the NBA Finals. Should that happen, they will almost undoubtedly face one of three teams: the Celtics, the Cavaliers, or the Magic. The general consensus seems to rank those three teams in the order in which I listed them.

Should the Lakers face the Celtics or the Cavaliers, having Artest at the Small Forward position is a major upgrade over Ariza. While Ariza is a very good defender, one of his bigger weaknesses is that he's a thin, wiry guy, and doesn't have the strength to go body-to-body with LeBron James and Paul Pierce. Few do, especially with the former. Ron Artest is one of those few. He's had some recent success in guarding LeBron, and causing him to struggle, as you may remember. LeBron is very strong, and Artest is one of few who has the strength to push him back.

Meanwhile, Pierce doesn't have the speed necessary to really cause problems for Artest. And again, Artest's size and strength can be a real problem for Pierce. This will force Pierce to go to the pick-and-roll to be effective. Fortunately, the Lakers are much improved in pick-and-roll defense, and I expect the addition of Artest to further strengthen them in that area.

The Magic are the one potential exception. With Vince Carter's skill set, Kobe may be more suited to guarding him. This, however, is an acceptable option in my mind, as I think Kobe matches up well with VC. Carter can still get up for impressive dunks here and there, but he's not quite as explosive as he used to be. Then again, if Artest can guard Kobe — and he does so as well as anybody can claim to — then I'm sure he can handle Carter, as well.

Manu Ginobili is the one star wing player, on a team that can threaten the Lakers, that really might be a problem for Artest. In this one scenario, Ariza would likely be a better defensive matchup. However, in that specific scenario, Kobe or Odom would probably do a decent job on Ginobili. In fact, the Lakers might find a way to work in Sasha Vujacic against Ginobili, as he seems very well suited to defending a player like Manu.

Bottom line, the Celtics and Cavaliers seem like the biggest threats to the Lakers' hopes of repeating, and thus, the specific advantage that Artest gives L.A. in a match-up against the superstars of those two teams is well worth the trade-off of having to deal creatively with Manu Ginobili. In the playoffs, winning isn't about some conceptual, generalized idea of which player makes your team "better" defensively; it's all about match-ups. And in the more likely scenarios, Artest strengthens the Lakers in several very key match-ups.

Versatility

This positional preview has focused on Ron Artest at the Small Forward position, for a very plain and simple reason. He will be the main guy at that spot. Nonetheless, the Lakers have quite a bit of potential versatility at this position.

Lamar Odom will probably split time between the Small and Power Forward positions, coming off the bench for Gasol and/or Artest. At the 4, he has become a very strong player, a key to the Lakers' defense, and someone the Lakers really rely on. In game closing situations, he will likely play at the Power Forward spot, with Gasol at Center and Artest at Small Forward.

However, Odom can also be a nightmare matchup when subbing in for Artest at the 3 spot. He's got the speed and quickness for the position, and his length, strength, and versatile skill set pose problems for opposing Small Forwards both offensively and defensively. His jumper has often been suspect, but it seems to be improving — especially when he doesn't fall in love with it, which is something he's been very good about lately. With Odom in the 3 slot, the Lakers would tower over just about any team in the league, and bigger often is better. The fact that, in doing so, the Lakers could go bigger without really giving up much in speed or quickness doesn't hurt, either.

When Artest or Odom isn't on the floor at the Small Forward position, Luke Walton will be claiming the remaining minutes. Walton also has a decent post game, but his true advantage lies in his heady play, his understanding of the offense, and his passing ability. In fact, with Walton on the floor, not many points will be scored from the 3 spot; instead, he will become the Lakers' facilitator. While it may be tough finding him minutes, there will certainly be situations and match-ups where his skill set will be advantageous at that position.

In addition, Walton has been a surprisingly good defender, of late. Generally ragged on for his defensive slowness over the years, it must be said that he did an excellent job defensively throughout the playoffs, whenever he was on the floor, especially against Carmelo Anthony.

Bottom line, the Small Forward position will likely be an advantage for the Lakers against 27 or 28 of the other teams in the league. Only the Cavs are likely to have a clear advantage there, but even then, the Lakers will fare better against LeBron with Artest than they would have with Ariza.

At the end of the day, Artest provides many of the things that the Lakers were said to be needing just a year ago: defense, toughness, strength. In fact, in about 15 months the Lakers have gone from being considered "soft" to having undoubtedly the toughest back court — with Artest, the Mamba who feels no pain, and the Bulldog — and potentially the toughest team overall, from 1 to 5. Thus, in a league where defense and toughness wins championships, and on a team that isn't likely to have much trouble scoring points, this change at the Small Forward position should undoubtedly be considered an upgrade, at least until proved otherwise.

The Lure of Potential

RaptorsHQ - Franchise — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 12:42:25 -0000

More photos » by CHRIS YOUNG - AP

Amir Johnson - a living, breathing example of the problems with potential...

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Perception of course is not always reality and Franchise ponders about the true potential of this year's version of the Toronto Raptors...

As many readers know, one of my favourite sports writers is none other than the Globe's Michael Grange.

Grange always gives it straight via his blog, From Deep, and often, makes me think about something I hadn't thought of before, especially in regards to the Toronto Raptors, or puts a new spin on it.

A great example of the latter?

Yesterday afternoon's post discussing his take on the Dinos with only one pre-season game remaining.

In it, Grange astutely points out that:

Pre-season is pre-season, but a glance at the league standings more-or-less corresponds with the general expectations of what the standings will look like when the ball goes up for real: In either conference there are no projected top-four seeds that are simply stinking it up. In the East Cleveland is 3-3, but they have Shaq on their team – just guessing he’s not going too hard just yet – and have had a serious flu bug to deal with. But Orlando and Boston? A combined 10-1. Out West the Lakers, Mavericks, Jazz and Spurs are a combined 15-6. Denver is 2-3 but had a trip to China to cope with. The bottom third of the standings in each conference look about right, with clubs like Minnesota, Sacramento, Memphis, Jersey and Toronto all struggling. The Raptors better hope they’re the exception.

The argument has always been that pre-season is just that, pre-season, however it's hard not to agree with Mike's logic here. In fact it was after witnessing Toronto's .500ish pre-season play last year that I revised my earlier expectations in terms of wins and downgraded my estimate. No, I didn't think that pre-season was an exact case of "what you've been seeing is what you're going to get," but there were certain things that stood out for me as likely causes for concern; from the back-up point guard spot to wing play.

However this year I'm not going quite that same route.

Last year the team was trying to change styles of play by incorporating Jermaine O'Neal into the mix, but there wasn't the same plethora of new player and chemistry issues to deal with. I also still firmly believe that this current squad boasts superior talent in comparison to last year's team, and that eventually (read December), we'll see a team with some true promise. And as discussed yesterday, that promise may not be realized for a year, but in any event, I expect to see improvements over last season.

Recently however, it doesn't seem that everyone else agrees.

Chad Ford twittered yesterday that he expected the Suns and Raptors to both miss the playoffs, and various other "experts" are placing the "overrated" label on this current version of the Dinos.

Bryan Colangelo just weeks ago was being viewed once more as the Legomaster for being able to turn Duplo blocks into those cool pieces from the Lego Space sets...

...so to speak.

But now after x number of pre-season games, you can already hear the naysayers starting up the bandwagon.

So here's where Grange really comes in.

After reading his post yesterday I got thinking about the current make-up of this team; is this team in fact overrated? Do the pieces brought in this off-season by BC simply look better than they are because they are "new" or "different?" After seeing Joey Graham frustrate you with his potential for three plus seasons, isn't it easier to be swayed by a Marco Belinelli or an Amir Johnson; players that have shown glimpses of promise with other teams, but have never got the opportunity to really show what they can do?

I think so, and I think that's a major point we all need to be wary of prior to the season's tip-off.

It's always easy to fall in love with potential - that's why players like Gerald Green and Saer Sene get drafted each year. And sometimes there's a good reason a player hasn't gotten the opportunity to "live up" to his potential.

It's because it isn't there.

Take Amir Johnson.

Even I was extremely excited about having him on this team this season and wondered if in the end, he might be challenging Reggie Evans for key back-up minutes at the 4. However Sunday's game against Boston made me realize why in all likelyhood, this isn't going to happen. He's just not great at anything other than blocking shots and scoring off of put-back dunks. Several times he was given post-up opportunities only to show about as many polished moves on the blocks as Fergie. (In fact she probably has more.) It wasn't pretty.

That's not to say that Johnson and the various other new members of the Raptors' bench aren't upgrades over last season, they are...

...but I want to emphasize that it's all relative.

Last year the team was basically relying on fringe NBA players to back-up the starters.

This year there's definitely an improvement in talent, but let's not confuse this group with the Lakers 6 through 12. Luke Walton would be a sixth man candidate for the Raps, not a 9th or 10th guy like he is with LA.

Therefore I think the truth regarding Toronto's potential this year falls somewhere between the 50 win plateau that many were throwing around prior to the season, and Grange's comparison of the pre-season standings to that of the eventual regular season. When the Raptors figure things out offensively, I think they'll be alright.

I hope so in any event.

Vegas has the Raps pegged for 41.5 wins, and yesterday, I bet on the over.

Off Season Alternative Training Techniques

C.A. Clark — Thu, 01 Oct 2009 19:20:27 -0000

More photos » by Vincent Yu - AP

Kobe's one of the greatest of all time, and he learned post moves from Hakeem, one of the greatest of all time, so this kid is definitely receiving the GREATEST BASKETBALL LESSON OF ALL TIME.

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The Los Angeles Lakers opened training camp on Wednesday, and finally, finally we got some basketball related news. Somewhat lost in the shuffle of the throngs of "reporters" from TMZ and E! News, two members of the team talked about the steps they took to improve their game over the offseason.

Kobe Bryant spent some time with the Master of the post, Hakeem "the Dream" Olajuwon, trying to learn the Dream Shake, and all of Hakeem's other devastating post moves. This seems further proof to me that Kobe is intent on developing the same kind of high post game that made Michael Jordan so unstoppable in his later years.

Lamar Odom took up boxing as a way to improve his footwork, and strengthen his core joints (ankles, hips, knees). It might also improve his ambidexterity, since, in his own words, "If I can knock a guy out with a right hand jab, I should be able to hit a layup with that hand too."

So, with that in mind, I'll take a look at which sport or training session with other NBA player would be most beneficial to each member of the Lakers. (Apologies to all the players brought in to fill the training camp roster, but you are not included. If any of you makes the opening day roster, I swear I'll write you in later).

Andrew Bynum - Kareem's Sky Hook

Alright, so this one is cheating because it's basically already in the works. But how awesome would it be if Bynum finally felt comfortable enough to break out the sky hook in games. What is Bynum's ceiling with a dependable sky hook? I think that it would make him the best offensive center in the game right now, since Howard is limited in that department at the moment, Shaq is too old, and Yao's entire future is still somewhat up in the air. As they say, the sky (hook) is the limit.

Pau Gasol - Crew

Aside from the hilarity involved with Pau fitting his 7 foot frame into a tiny crew boat, there is no better sport for training upper body strength. Every crew team member I've ever seen (coxswains aside) has had huge shoulders and forearms, women included. Since Pau isn't a huge fan of straight weight lifting, this could be the perfect summer activity to turn his chicken wings into turkey legs.

Ron Artest - Golf

For the man who needs mental strengthening much more than physical, I prescribe golf. I can't think of a game that is more capable of inducing someone to lose control, and anybody who does lose control even a little bit on the golf course is immediately punished for it. The focus which is required on the links wouldn't be a bad thing for Ron Ron either.

Luke Walton - Shooting Lessons with Reggie Miller

Walton has had (extremely) brief periods where he has been a very competent shooter. During those periods, people understand why the Lakers might have been willing to pay him so much money to be on the team. Despite never being the most athletic of guys, Luke's all around game has always been strong. He's can handle the rock, can be a tremendous passer, and has enough size to do what he needs to in the post. If he could consistently knock down the outside shot, his stock would jump from fringe role player to legitimate starter in the NBA.

Adam Morrison - MMA

The most well known moment of Adam Morrison's life is when he began to cry with a few seconds remaining in an NCAA tournament game where his precious Zags absolutely choked the game away to the UCLA Bruins. Also, if you haven't noticed, his body looks like bread dough. A couple months of training in the Octogon should do well to get rid of both attributes.

Sasha Vujacic - Posting up with Charles Barkley

Wait a second, WHAT?!?!? Hear me out. Obviously I don't want Sasha to start going to the post and attempting to back down his man for hours on end (although the comedy of such an activity would be off the charts.) Instead, I figure if Sasha spends a day training in the post with a man for whom they actually created a rule against taking too much time with the ball, Sasha might just learn that he doesn't have to shoot the rock within 2 nanoseconds of receiving it. If Sasha had the Chuck Wagon's patience, he might still be called the Machine.

Derek Fisher - Soccer

Fisher is already the consummate professional, and his body is probably in as good a shape as you can expect. It also seems ridiculous to ask a 13 year veteran to go pick up a new trick to use in the league (unless that player is gunning for participation in the GOAT debate, that is). So, for Fisher, I prescribe a sport intended to help him improve his quickness, which is the attribute that seems to be deteriorating the fastest as he ages. No sport in the world will teach you to have quick feet better than soccer.

Jordan Farmar - Tennis

You think that a bad attitude and not listening to coaches will hurt you in basketball? Tennis is littered with players who could have been all time greats, but failed to realize their potential because they didn't listen to coaches, and had a poor attitude about what they do. Plus, the individual nature of the game is such that you literally have no one to blame but yourself for your failures.

Shannon Brown - Dunking Techniques from Vince Carter

This is pretty much self-explanatory. If you've got all-world athleticism, and can jump as if you are on the moon, why not dial up the style while you're up there? You're telling me Shannon couldn't put his forearm in the basket? Or pull off a 360 through-the-legs windmill? Shannon's already got the game, as evidenced by the high school dunk contest he apparently got screwed out of winning ... against LeBron James. He just needs some tips from VC about how to turn that athleticism into something more artistic.

DJ Mbenga - Blocking from Dikembe Mutombo

Mbenga already has the mentality for this. The man attempts to block practically every shot that comes within a 10 foot radius, but he ends up with more fouls than blocked shots. He just needs some technique to go along with the desire, and who better to provide it than one of the best shot blockers of all time, Deke. Besides, more than anything in the world, I want Mbenga to adopt the finger wag after each block. With Mutumbo's career finally and tragically over, we need to keep the finger wag alive, and Mbenga is definitely the man for the job.

Josh Powell - Dancing moves from Ronny Turiaf

Josh Powell is already considered Turiaf-lite. Why not commit and go for the whole package? He's already got the same type of game as Turiaf. He's already got the capability for awesome hair-dos as Turiaf. All we need is for Powell to start shaking and grooving every time a Laker makes a big play on the court, and it'll be like the fan-favorite Ronny never left.

Is 70 wins more likely than another championship?

C.A. Clark — Tue, 25 Aug 2009 19:42:53 -0000

More photos » by David J. Phillip - AP

Another one of these should be goal #1, but could the Lakers win 70 games and still fail to capture this trophy next year?

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I've been awful quiet around these parts as of late. I'm not really a big fan of the NBA offseason. I do my due diligence and pay attention to it all, but I don't like commenting on negotiations and trade rumors. However, the NBA landscape is looking a lot clearer these days, especially at the top. So I come back to you now to pose a question that, on the surface, may sound ridiculous.

Could it be harder for the Lakers to repeat as champions than it would be to win 70 games next year?

Before I try to convince you of the validity of that question, a caveat. This entire conversation ignores the possibility of a major injury (missing 15+ games) to a major player (any of the top 5). I know this is a huge leap of faith, and is the main reason why any team would be hard pressed to win 70 games. I know it is unlikely to happen. I'm choosing to ignore it because trying to predict if and when a major player goes down is the trade of an Oracle, not a blogger. Besides, as Boston found out last year, injuries can just as easily derail a championship run as it can a highly successful regular season. So, understand that when I talk of the possibility of 70 wins for the Lakers, I'm already assuming that health won't be a major issue, and I know just how astute that assumption is.

Right, now that the rules are set, here's my case for why 70 wins could be more likely than a 2nd straight parade:

The Lakers won 65 games last year ... and had plenty of room for improvement.

The crux of my argument. Last year, the Lakers won 65 games, and were constantly under-performing while doing so. A few bench players took a step (or three) backwards, even as the Lakers were beating everybody under the sun because the starters were so dominant. Jordan Farmar and Sasha Vujacic were the main culprits here. Farmar had a significant early injury, came back too soon, and was actually a detriment to the team for most of the year. He only began to show signs of his old self in the limited minutes he got in the playoffs. Meanwhile, Vujacic completely fell off the wagon. While his shooting wasn't nearly as bad as you think (for many players, especially outside shooters, an eFG of 49% is OK), it was a far cry from the Machine of 2007-2008, and if his actual shooting numbers aren't terrible, they don't tell the whole story. Vujacic was constantly putting up shots that made every fan cringe. Luke Walton also took a step back, although not nearly as dramatic as the other two players. The significant point here is that all three of these guys are young players. They are at a point in their career where they should be improving, not regressing. Meanwhile, Andrew Bynum started the season slow, began turning into a real powerhouse, and then promptly lost half the season to injury again. Simply a full healthy year of Bynum would be quite an improvement over last year's squad. Further, Shannon Brown will be able to pick up the slack if Farmar falters again, and even Sasha's role could possibly be filled by Adam Morrison if he can't find the stroke. Improved bench play won't win you a whole lot of playoff games, but during the regular season, a strong bench can be a huge difference maker in turning close games into blowouts.

Outside of themselves, the Lakers division is weaaaak.

Besides the Lakers, the Pacific division is the worst division in basketball, and it's not even close. The Pacific was the only division to have only one playoff team last year. It was the only division to have two teams win less than 20 games. And with a winning percentage just under 43%, including the Lakers' stellar record, the division won 6% less games than the next worst division. The only other decent team in the division (the Suns) appear to have gotten worse due to Shaq's departure, and another year on the legs of Nash and Grant Hill, and the only truly significant addition in the entire division was Blake Griffin. The Lakers could very well go undefeated in their own division.

The NBA's power consolidation works in favor of more Lakers wins.

The motto of the NBA offseason has been "The rich get richer". There has been a lot of power consolidation in the NBA this offseason, with all the teams which were contenders last year making major plays to be better this year. Shaq's in Cleveland, VC is in Orlando, Sheed is in Boston, and Richard Jefferson is in SA. You'll notice only one of those teams is in the West, which means the Lakers will only have to deal with the NBA elite twice each, save San Antonio.

Meanwhile "the poor get poorer". Small market teams are doing everything they can to shed salary, either because they want to be ready for the free agent bonanza of 2010, or because they are hemorrhaging money faster than an American automaker, and a majority of the really bad NBA teams are in the Western Conference. I'm not going to get into whether the East or the West is better, because the argument completely changes based on your sample size of teams. But the West had 6 of the 7 teams which did not win 30 games last year, and for my money, only LAC (Griffin) and OKC (Durant's continued growth) may be noticeably better than last year. Add to that list the incredibly sad story that is the Houston Rockets, and you've got quite a few games against piss-poor competition. Lots of games vs. really bad teams = lots of wins even if your team is having an off-night.

The Lakers' nemesis got a lot weaker

Only three teams managed to beat the Lakers twice in the regular season last year. The Orlando Magic (eventual NBA Finalists), the Portland Trailblazers (both losses in Portland, one of the toughest venues in the league, and always a sore spot for L.A.), and ... the mighty Charlotte Bobcats. Any Lakers fan shudders at the mere mention of the plucky team from Charlotte who almost always seem to have the Lakers' numbers. Well, that plucky team made themselves worse by trading away Emeka Okafor for Tyson Chandler. I'm not saying Okafor is a game-breaker, but he was a very decent defender who could rebound and hurt you inside. Chandler can be a great rebounder, but his defense is too highlight oriented (going for the block) and his offense can best be described as an extension of Chris Paul's will. Now that he doesn't have Paul's gorgeous oops to throw down, I think it's pretty certain that he will be exposed badly on the offensive end. So ... the Lakers are sure to pick up two wins just by finally sticking the fork in Charlotte ... right?!?

Even besides Charlotte, the Lakers lost some pretty winnable games

In my opinion, the Lakers 17 losses break down like so: 10 understandable losses (both Orlando games, @ SA, @Den, @Atl, @Mia, NO, @Utah, 2 @ Por), 3 losses that probably shoudn't have happened (@ Char, @PHX (No Nash, No Stoudamire), home to Detroit), and 4 losses that are just embarrassing (home to PHI, @Ind, @Sac, home to Charlotte). Three of those losses (@SA, @Ind, PHI) came on last second plays that fall somewhere on the spectrum between unrealistic and WTF? A few more were very close. It's not hard to see more than 5 of those games turning from L's into W's next year, providing a buffer against the predictable drop in success against the NBA elite this year (6-3 last year, maybe 6-4 or 5-5 this year)

On the other side of the equation, the NBA playoffs look to be a bloodbath.

With 5 teams looking like legitimate Goliaths, this year's playoffs will be a massive war of attrition. The Lakers seem to be clear favorites going into the season, but who knows what will happen when 5 teams of that quality (and some not too shabby potential party crashers in the Blazers and Nuggets) square off. With all those super powers, winning the championship will not be an easy task at all, no matter who ends up in the Finals, and no matter who has the home court advantage. While the Lakers may have the best chance to win the title, the probability of it is still less than 50:50. One can not understate the difficulty of winning 70 games in any season, but this year the same could be said of winning the championship. The degree of difficulty in this year's playoffs will be astronomical for all of the major players, and there will be no margin of error from the 2nd round onward.

Trying to repeat as champions only adds to the degree of difficulty

It may sound odd considering how many champions have been able to repeat in the last 20 years, but winning a 2^nd championship in a row is a lot harder than winning the first. It usually happens only when one team is a clear head and shoulders above the rest of the NBA. Since the demise of the Shaq-Kobe Lakers, that team has not existed (although the Spurs deserve honorable mention for their off-year domination), hence no repeat champion. Were the Lakers a dominant team last year? If looking at their record against the NBA elite, one could certainly make that case. But their performance against the rest of the NBA clouds the issue considerably. Are they head and shoulders above the rest this year? With all the upgrades made by all the other contenders, and with the risk-reward proposition that is Ron Artest, there are too many variables to come to a firm conclusion, and it is certainly not clear cut.

So, is the likelihood of winning 70 games higher than that of winning a championship? Probably not. There's a reason only one team in NBA history has won 70 games. It takes a massive level of commitment from a team to play in a professional manner night in, night out. The Lakers certainly didn't look like that model of professionalism during the last regular season. And, as previously mentioned, the shadow of injury looms over the whole scenario, ready to bring it crashing to the ground at any time. That being said, the NBA landscape this year, with a large number of teams who are very bad (mostly in the West), and a large number of teams who are very good (mostly in the East), provides the proper circumstance in which a team could win 70 games without being clearly more dominant than every other team in the league. The Lakers are the most likely candidate, but it could also happen to any one of the three elite teams in the East. I made this argument from a Lakers perspective, but many of the points can apply to the Eastern elite as well, especially since most of the teams on the other end of those power consolidating moves were Eastern conference teams. More than in any other NBA season in my memory, there are enough great teams and enough terrible teams to make it plausible to have a 70 game winner come up short at the end of the season.

Is it possible? Am I full of crap? Did I just jinx the Lakers? What do you think?

Poll

Which combination of events do you think is most likely to occur?

The Lakers win 70 games and the NBA championship

960 votes

The Lakers don't win 70 games, but win the NBA championship

1529 votes

The Lakers win 70 games, but don't win the NBA championship

44 votes

The Lakers don't win 70 games or the NBA championship

215 votes

2748 votes | Poll has closed

Lakers 99, Magic 86: Lakers Win 15th Championship

Josh Tucker — Mon, 15 Jun 2009 10:34:22 -0000

More photos » by David J. Phillip - AP

That's four cookies, Kobe. Four delicious cookies that represent four equally delicious N-B-A Championship Rings, that you have. Somehow, "You earned it," feels completely inadequate.

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This one is for the fans, who were reminded countless times that no team had lost the Finals and then won a championship the next year since the Detroit Pistons did it in 1989.

This one is for the players, who tasted the promised land only to be pushed back into the desert, and have since worked so hard to succeed where they failed a year ago.

This one is for Phil Jackson, who won his tenth ring as a coach to break his tie with Red Auerbach and take his rightful place as the greatest coach ever, not only in NBA basketball, but in all of the major American sports.

This one is for Kobe Bryant, who finally got that "big old monkey" off his back by leading his Lakers to his first championship as the unquestioned team leader and best player. For Bryant, who now has one more cookie to satisfy his tremendous hunger (if only temporarily).

This one is for you; keep reading...

This one is for Pau Gasol, who was once labeled "soft," but is now clearly one of the toughest ~~scrawny~~ big men in the league. For Gasol, who was snubbed with his placement on only the 3rd Team All-NBA, but surely has a lot of voters wishing for a do-over.

This one is for Trevor Ariza, who was called "delusional" and tossed aside by Orlando, only to become a vital cog in the Lakers' championship machine, punishing team after team for disregarding him – not the least of which was the very team that foolishly let him go.

This one is for Lamar "Candyman" Odom, the magician without an assistant, who has been criticized for all of eternity for his disappearing acts, but delivered in a big way throughout the later stages of the 2009 Playoffs.

This one is for Derek Fisher, who struggled throughout the playoffs and took a lot of grief for his poor play, only to make two of the biggest shots of the entire season.

This one is for Luke Walton, who arrived on the scene just in time to lose in the Finals in 2004, and then again in 2008, but finally got his first postseason victory – and a well-earned one it was. For Josh Powell, who was told he would never play in this league, only to find his place as a solid bench player on one of the best championship teams ever. For Shannon Brown, a seemingly irrelevant afterthought in a trade made primarily to dump salary, who now shows tremendous promise as a point guard for a team whose only true weakness is the point guard position. For the first-timers, winning not their fourth or tenth championship rings, but their first.

This one is for the fans, who stuck with Kobe Bryant through thick and thin – through Shaq, Colorado, Bynum, Phoenix, and of course, Kwame Brown, Smush Parker, and Brian Cook – and who have waited with him for what felt like an eternity, longing only for a championship that none could take away from him, and one that, at the same time, would validate all the others.

This one is for all of Laker Nation, which suffered the heart-wrenching loss in the 2008 Finals, and can now bask in the glory of a truly dominant victory in five games over a formidable opponent.

This one is for you. Enjoy it; bask in the glory of the Lakers' 15th championship, Phil Jackson's 10th, Kobe and Fish's fourth, and Pau Gasol's first. Soak in this moment. And stick with us – we're going to ride this high (as I've been known to say, a better high than any drug could ever provide) as far as it will take us, and we've only just begun. Plenty of in-depth analysis of Game 5, the Finals, the Playoffs, and the Season to come.

And for now, I believe I speak for all Lakers fans when I say, "Thank you, Lakers, for an unbelievable season, and for the opportunity to share this journey with you as fans. The experience has been richly rewarding, and the result, of course, is a tremendous joy to participate in."

Lakers-Magic Game 4: Tempo-Free Boxscore Breakdown

DexterFishmore — Sat, 13 Jun 2009 05:36:36 -0000

It was a pleasure doing business with you, Otis Smith.

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In Game Four, Derek Fisher had a Robert Horry kind of night. This is a more complicated notion than you might think and, as hoops compliments go, is both enormous and enormously qualified. It invokes a sense of role player yin-and-yang that manifests equally in long stretches of ineffectual play, on the one hand, and historic, era-defining big shots, on the other. It describes a performance that screams out for big-picture context and perspective.

History remembers Horry primarily for the long threes he hit to change the course of many a playoff series. Those of us with doctorates in Advanced Horrysian Studies, however, know that this is but part of his tale, as in spite of his postseason heroics, he was among the more infuriating players to have on one's team. The fourth-quarter daggers were great, but they were often preceded by thirtysome minutes of GM-worthy underproduction. For the first 85 possessions of a game, Horry would wander the court without presence or direction, notching maybe three points and two boards and leading an angry Laker nation to ask the musical question, Why the hell is this guy playing?

But then, the answer, in the form of the shots that we all remember. The daggers that, yes, changed NBA history and rearranged how we look back on seasons and entire careers. I dig seeing the clips of Horry's classic bombs, but I also remember thinking, That win would have been a lot easier if he hadn't waited until the last second to do something useful.

Fisher's Game Four performance shares the same contours. Not the classic Horry fecklessness, of course; Fish is one of the all-time, try-hard badasses and one of the rare athletes who actually earns the overused adjective gritty. But let's be honest with each other: how many of us groaned irritably at his first five three-point misses and, through the TV, demanded his benchitude? And the thing is, we weren't necessarily wrong to do so, strange as it sounds. Up until there were four seconds left in regulation, Fish wasn't that great, and his not-that-greatness was a reason, one among many, the Lakers needed a historic comeback.

This isn't meant to disparage Fish's performance in Game Four; honestly, it's not. (Making three-pointers, after all, is actually difficult, especially against the Orlando Magic in their gym.) I mean only to observe that we as sports fans tend to focus overmuch on sequence. Whatever happened last seems most important, even though baskets made in the fourth quarter don't count any more than those made in the second. There were hundreds of tiny moments and interactions that led to Fish's bombs, so as we lavish praise for the shots that will likely lead to a Laker championship, let's not forget love for those who kept the Lakers in it until Fish could find the range.

For Pau Gasol, for instance, whose defense turned Rashard Lewis into a 6'9" version of J.J. Redick. For Luke Walton, unassumingly finding his role and his game after a season in the wilderness. For Trevor Ariza, who ripped third-quarter holes in the Orlando D and did some unsung work on the glass. For Otis Smith, who somehow saw fit to trade Ariza to the Lakers for - ahem - Maurice Evans and Brian Cook. And for Nick Anderson, who still carries with him the gypsy curse that makes the Orlando Magic miss free throws in the NBA Finals.

The Game Four numbers await you after the jump. Tick tock, Clarice....

Thursday night, including the overtime period, was a 95-possession affair, which prorates to 86 possessions per 48 minutes of play. Anyone up for a 15-second shot clock?

	TO Rate	FTA/FGA	FT%	EFG%	TS%	Off Reb%	Def Reb%	PPP
Los Angeles	8%	0.22	75	46	50	23	74	1.04
Orlando	20%	0.50	60	47	50	26	77	0.96

Want to know a stat I absolutely hate? Points off turnovers. It's an utterly useless metric that to my annoyance continues to appear in the conventional boxscore. I suspect that it's a carry-over from football, in which a turnover can set up good field position and an easy score. In today's NBA, however, teams really don't fast-break off turnovers that much - see, e.g., the pace numbers for this entire series - and as a result, there's hardly any relation between the occurrence a turnover and what subsequently happens at the other end. The value of the turnover is almost entirely defensive, in that you end your opponents' possession without their having attempted a shot.

Anyhow, the Magic turned the ball over on a fifth of their Game Four possessions, and at this point I feel comfortable in saying: they are the worst passing team I've ever seen advance deeply into the NBA playoffs. They're just a hot nasty mess. Dwight Howard might be, like, the third-best passer on the team. Stan Van Gundy should try him at the point.

The wide-angle view of this series is looking pretty bleak for Orlando. Over four games, these two teams have played out 367 possessions, divided almost equally between Staples and Amway, and the Lakers are outscoring the Magic by 0.09 points per. (See composite series-to-date numbers below.) All available evidence tells us that Orlando just isn't good enough to beat the Lakers three straight times. If all three remaining games were in Orlando, L.A. would still be favored to take at least one of them. With two of the three to be played in the 213, there's really no reason, outside of the anything-can-happen unknowability of the future, to think that this series isn't effectively over.

Until it's official, though, I'll keep dropping the stat bombs like you're begging me to do it.

The Magic backcourt was back to its usual capering on Thursday: aside from Frenchman Mickael (why isn't it Michel?) Pietrus, who scored 15 on 11 shooting possessions, Orlando guards were ghastly. Our good friends Rafer Alston, Courtney Lee, Jameer Nelson and Redick scored 23 points on 42% True Shooting. Reached for comment, Pietrus announced plans to commence a general strike to secure improved working conditions, meaning teammates who can shoot.
How bad is Anthony Johnson that he can't get a minute of playing time in this group? At least he got mentioned in my column, which I'm told is just as exciting as appearing in the NBA Finals.
Howard and Hedo Turkoglu together missed 13 free throws, thereby voiding the warranty on the Amway Arena rims. Nobody dunk too hard, as repairs are all out-of-pocket from now on.
Sashawatch 2009! This needs its own theme music. Four minutes played, oh-for-2 shooting. He hasn't scored since May.
Pau has turned the ball over only four times in 170 minutes played this series. Dwight Howard turned the ball over four times while you were reading this sentence. BURN.

(As promised, composite series numbers are below.)

Savor Game Five, my peoples! It could be the last time we get to watch this maddening, magnificent edition of the Lakers.

	Poss/48 Mins	TO Rate	FTA/FGA	FT%	EFG%	TS%	Off Reb%	Def Reb%	PPP
Orlando	87	16%	0.42	70	48	53	24	73	1.01
Los Angeles	87	11%	0.27	76	50	54	27	76	1.10

Lakers-Magic Game 1: Tempo-Free Boxscore Breakdown

DexterFishmore — Fri, 05 Jun 2009 19:30:11 -0000

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This is an odd thing to write about a 40-point, 8-assist, 8-rebound boxscore line, but Kobe Bryant's full-game stats don't do justice to the majesty of his Game One performance. Don't get me wrong; those numbers - which, lest we forget, include a couple blocks, a couple steals and a stunning turnover count of one - are most definitely suitable for framing. But they don't adequately convey how, in the second and third quarters, he disemboweled Orlando's defense, bent the game to his will and turned the fourth quarter into, as they say in the Italian league that Kobe grew up watching, il tempo garbagio.

To put his onslaught into proper relief, let's make like a Predator drone and zoom in on those middle two quarters.

With 8:38 to play in the second, Courtney Lee made a layup to put the Magic ahead 33-28, at which point Phil Jackson called a timeout and put Kobe back on the floor. Kobe would not return to the bench until the completion of the third. That stretch of play comprised 38 possessions for each team, or about 45% of the total game. Here's what happened during those 38 possessions.

The Lakers outscored the Magic, 54 to 25, finishing the third quarter with an 82-58 lead. In terms of points per possession (PPP), the Lakers outscored the Magic 1.42 to 0.66 in that stretch.
Kobe scored 30 points - individually outscoring the entire Orlando team by five points - on only 21 shooting possessions (SPs).
On six of the 17 possessions in which he didn't score, Kobe assisted a Laker basket.
In other words, on seven out of every 10 possessions during the run when the Lakers put the game away for good, Kobe either scored himself or set up a teammate for a hoop.
The field goals that Kobe either scored or assisted on accounted for 44 total points, or over 80% of the Lakers' offense during that crushing second- and third-quarter surge.

In hoops analysis, the adverb singlehandedly should be used with the utmost reluctance. And it absolutely shouldn't be used here. Kobe didn't put the Magic away singlehandedly. There were always four other Lakers on the court setting screens, getting him the ball in the right spots and requiring defensive attention from Orlando. But I will say that this was the most crippling one-player offensive barrage I remember seeing in the NBA Finals since 1992, when Michael Jordan hit six threes in a half against Portland (in the famous "Shrug Game").

And when you consider that Orlando was the NBA's best defensive team this year? Damn, baby. Kobe would have been forgiven if he felt like a shrug of his own.

The full Game One numbers are after the jump. I promise you're gonna like 'em.

There were 86 possessions per team last night, which is the second fewest of any Laker game this postseason. Neither team turned the ball over much, and the Lakers extended a lot of their possessions with offensive rebounds, both of which are factors that contributed to the low possession count.

	TO Rate	FTA/FGA	FT%	EFG%	TS%	Off Reb%	Def Reb%	PPP
Orlando	9%	0.38	72	35	42	23	65	0.87
Los Angeles	10%	0.20	83	48	52	35	77	1.16

Nobody in this postseason had shut down the Magic offense like the Lakers did last night. In the first three rounds, Orlando's PPP never dipped below 0.96 in any one game. Against Cleveland in the Eastern Conference Finals, it never dipped below 1.08. Last night the Magic offense was 20% worse than its average performance (of 1.09 PPP) in the Eastern Conference playoffs.

Orlando's turnover rate was fine - quite good, in fact. And they got to the line frequently enough and made free throws right in line with their regular season rates. Their offensive rebounding was awful, but it's always awful; they only rebounded 24% of their own misses during the first three rounds, so last night was nothing new. The massive, all-encompassing problem was a failure to find the bottom of the net. Game One was the Magic's worst shooting night of the playoffs by far: previous lows in Effective Field Goal and True Shooting percentages were 40% and 43%, respectively.

The Magic did not, as you will undoubtedly hear who knows how many times, "die by the three" last night. They made 35% of their threes in Game One - nothing special, to be sure, but only a few ticks below their regular season average. On two-point attempts, however.... listen, you might want to be sitting down for this.

On two-point attempts, the Magic shot only 28 percent. Twenty-eight. That is just incomprehensibly bad. Some of the misses, as in every game, were bricked open looks, but not all and not even most. The length of the Laker defenders bothered Orlando, and Laker rotations were as crisp and purposeful as I've ever seen them. Raise a glass today to Phil and assistant Brian Shaw for crafting a scheme that took the "O" out of Orlando.

Wandering down to the player level, here are a few stat mines I stepped on and lived to tell about.

Seven different Magic players (Dwight Howard, Mickael Pietrus, Hedo Turkoglu, Rashard Lewis, Rafer Alston, Jameer Nelson and Lee) had at least nine shooting possessions, but none of them had more than 14. When you're winning that's called offensive balance. When you're losing it's called having no idea where the hell your points are supposed to come from. The only Magic player to exceed one point per SP was garbage man par excellence J.J. Redick.
Turk was big in the first quarter (nine points on six SPs), but got taken out of the game thereafter by Trevor Ariza. In the crucial second and third periods, he had only two points on three SPs.
Doug Collins, listen up: this is why your "points per shot attempt" is a junk stat. Howard finished with 12 points on six field goal attempts. Two points per shot = TASTY EFFICIENCY, no? Well, no. Howard used up eight other possessions to get to the line, where he made 10 of 16 free throws. So you need to understand that he actually used a total of 14 possessions to get his 12 points. This isn't a difficult concept. Please take three minutes to learn it so we don't have to listen to your "one point per shot" speech next season. Also your son annoyed me when he played at Duke.
How about the quiet resurrection of Luke Walton? After going scoreless in the middle two games against Denver, he scored four points on four SPs in Game Five, 10-on-8 in Game Six and 9-on-6 last night. Not shabby at all, and he's also contributing with some good dishing and surprisingly competent D.
Guess who was the only Laker to post a negative plus/minus last night. Seriously, take a guess. If you said anyone other than Sasha Vujacic, take a lap.
And then take three more laps.

One last note: Pau went about 18 minutes, from the end of the first quarter until there were about eight minutes left in the third, without taking a shot. I realize there were extenuating circumstances, as Kobe was busy removing Orlando's intestinal tract, but let's not start doing that thing again where we forget that Pau should get the ball. Good things happen for the Lakers when he touches it. That's all I'm saying.

Lakers 100, Magic 75: So Much for the Regular Season

Josh Tucker — Fri, 05 Jun 2009 11:00:29 -0000

More photos » by Mark J. Terrill - AP

Kobe Bryant – you can call him "Grumpy" – wants this so bad, those around him can't remember the last time he smiled. In Game 1, he translated that desire into a terrifyingly dominant performance.

Browse more photos »

The Los Angeles Lakers are 1-0 against the Orlando Magic. Those two losses, way back in the regular season? Game 1 of the 2009 NBA Finals made it obvious that they don't matter anymore. Those games were close, and they ended in Orlando wins. This game was not – and I don't have to tell you who won.

This was a blowout so thorough, the Magic will struggle to find even moral victories. Offensively, the Lakers were unstoppable, moving the ball and scoring in the paint at will. Defensively, they throttled the Magic. Overall, they simply played harder.

By all accounts, effort is what this game was all about. Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol, Lamar Odom, Dwight Howard, Jameer Nelson... the list of players who told us that this game was decided by effort goes on. A few examples from this blog's favorite player:

"We played very well. We played with a lot of energy. Guys are working hard. That's all you can ask for when you play against the Orlando Magic because they do a great job of spacing you out, and everybody on the floor has to be willing to work."

"No, I just think we did a better job, did a better job staying alert, and like I said, man 1 through 5, everybody was dedicated to working hard, came back in transition, did a pretty good job."

"We just had to work hard. Just worked hard. We scrambled. We were very active, our bigs were very active, and that's what you have to do against a team like Orlando. You've got to work your tail off 24 seconds."

"We've just got to keep working. I think we've been playing extremely well the last three games. We've just got to keep our foot on the gas and just keep on working."

You get the idea. For the record, Dwight Howard agreed:

"Tonight was just an off night – as a team we only made 23 shots and Kobe made 16 by himself. We've never had a shooting night this bad. We've just got to come out and play a lot harder than we did tonight. Even when we're not making shots, we've got to give a better effort. Our effort tonight, it just wasn't there. Nobody's effort was there. We didn't go for any loose balls, we just wasn't fighting. That's not Magic basketball."

For the record, it wasn't all about Orlando's shooting woes and lack of effort. In large part, this victory is a result of the Lakers' suffocating defense. In the first game of this series, they made it seem as though the matchup issues we've been discussing to such great length never existed in the first place. The Magic were 23-77 for the night, a dismal conversion rate of 29.9%. They also collected only 41 rebounds to the Lakers' 55, including 10 offensive rebounds to the Lakers' 15.

It started with their approach to Dwight Howard. It was quite simple, really – but of course, to Kobe's point, it was only effective because the Lakers played hard and put forth the necessary effort. First, they didn't double-cover Howard – but they didn't single-cover him, either. Instead, as Matt Moore stated at Hardwood Paroxysm, their defense started in the paint and fanned outwards. They hedged on Howard, and while he still had the option of making the pass, they kept a foot on the other side of the line, ready to bounce right back to the perimeter shooters when he kicked the ball out. But once Howard made his move and started going into his shot, that hedging second defender finally committed fully to the double team. Only a handful of players in the NBA are skilled at switching instantaneously to make the pass after they have already begun their shot, and it was not something Howard was able to do in this game. The result was that the Lakers were able to double Howard on the shot, rendering him far less effective in the paint, while still keeping an eye on his shooters.

When Howard did kick the ball out to his perimeter shooters, the Lakers were quick to react. This is where that effort comes in. As soon as Howard made the pass, the Lakers made quick rotations and ran Orlando's long bombers off of their shot. On the night, the Magic only took 23 three-point field goals, which is not a very high number for them. When they did get a three-point shot off, it was almost always contested. The result was that Orlando only made eight three-pointers, taking fewer than they often have in these playoffs and hitting them at a fairly pedestrian rate.

The brilliance of this scheme is that it was able to do both of these things at once. Personally, I would have been happy if the Lakers had contained Orlando's shooters but allowed Dwight Howard to have a dominant game. As I've said before, it's a question of team production versus individual production, and an entire team playing well is much more likely to win than a single player playing well. But tonight, they didn't give up either. They contained the Magic's shooters, while at the same time marginalizing Howard's individual impact on the game.

One final note about the Lakers' defensive effort – and we'll do this in bullet points:

Dwight Howard: 1-6 shooting, 12 points
Hedo Turkoglu: 3-11 shooting, 13 points
Rashard Lewis: 2-10 shooting, 8 points

Orlando's "Big Three" combined for 33 points – a total Kobe Bryant had already reached by the middle of the third quarter. Was this by design, or did these three great players simply have off nights, all on the same night? Time will tell, but this much I know: if the Lakers can successfully implement a "let the role players beat you" strategy, I might need to revise my prediction downward.

Offensively, the Lakers continued to operate at peak performance. That stagnant, one-on-one offense that emerged at certain points early in the Western Conference Finals? It was nowhere to be seen. The floor spacing was great, the player movement was exceptional, and ball movement was so crisp and quick that the Lakers got whatever shot they wanted, all night long. Even during one stretch, where Kobe Bryant took over and put the triangle on hold in favor of the high pick-and-roll, his teammates stayed engaged and the Lakers' passing continued to be excellent. When the Magic defense collapsed on Kobe, he simply found an open man, who continued to swing the ball until the Lakers got a great shot – often a layup or dunk.

The Lakers took only nine three-pointers in this game, making 3. However, they destroyed the Magic in the paint, where they had a 56-22 points in the paint advantage.

Of course, there was Kobe Bryant himself. Let's see here: 40 points, 8 rebounds, 8 assists, 2 steals, and 2 blocks, with only one turnover. The only negative to that line, if there even is one, is that it took him 34 shots to get those 40 points. Nonetheless, tonight was a night in which those 34 shots felt right – they were the right decision, and they dominated the game. Most significantly, during the critical second and third quarters – during which time the Lakers went from down two to up 24 – Bryant was shot 12-20 (6-9 in the second, 6-11 in the third) for 30 points, hit all six of his free throws, and also found time to collect five rebounds and dish out six assists. Quite simply, this was one of the best games any player has ever played – and Kobe Bryant did it on the biggest stage, in the biggest moment, giving his team a strong edge in the series and getting them one big step closer to their goal of winning a championship.

Kobe Bryant and the Lakers' defense were the biggest factors in this dominant Lakers win, but they were not the only ones. Pau Gasol was solid, scoring an efficient 16 points on 7-12 shooting and adding eight rebounds, as well as some fantastic defense in the post. His passing was also excellent, as always. Lamar Odom, Kobe Bryant, Luke Walton, and even Derek Fisher were able to score well in the paint, in part because of Gasol's presence.

Speaking of Odom, Lakers fans must be pleased. At this point, it appears that Odom may actually be putting together a whole run of good games. If that is the case, this team may even be capable of sweeping the Finals. Odom played aggressively and finished with 11 points and (doing what he does best) a team high 14 rebounds. He missed all of his three-pointers, but he was 5-8 inside the arc, and he played stellar defense.

Andrew Bynum, of course, also deserves mention here. By the end of the night, he only hit three of his eight shots, but having been at the game I can tell you that it felt as though he hit all of them. He only played 22 minutes, but while he was on the court, his presence was solid, and he played with energy and intensity. He played Howard very well, and was very instrumental in a good start for the Lakers. Though it must frustrate him not to be able to play more, I think that even if he only gets 22 minutes a game, the Lakers will be in great shape if he uses those 22 minutes the way he used them tonight.

Derek Fisher and Luke Walton were the surprises of the night – on both ends of the floor. Fish shot 4-6 and hit his only three-point attempt, and his defense was superb. His +/- rating for the game was a +22, second only to Kobe Bryant's +25. Luke Walton also played well offensively, effectively using his size in the post and scoring nine points on a very efficient 4-5 shooting. In a trend that must baffle Lakers fans, he continued to play excellent defense, contributing strongly to the effort to contain Rashard Lewis and Hedo Turkoglu. To boot, his 24 minutes on the court came without a single turnover.

A final thought that Lakers fans can breathe in deeply and derive pleasure from is the fact that, despite numerous opportunities, the Lakers never gave away any large leads. They were up by 10 at the half, but they didn't come out flat in the third quarter. Instead, they delivered a dominant, classic Lakers third quarter, winning the period by 14 and pushing the lead to 24. Even in the fourth, when garbage time could have started at about the nine-minute mark, the Lakers still refused to relinquish their lead. Their biggest lead of the night was 28 points; at the end of the game it was 25.

In fact, the Lakers dominated so thoroughly, so early, that DJ Mbenga saw some playing time... and Josh Powell even had the chance to launch a three-pointer, nailing it with one second remaining in the game to push the score to an even 100 points.

In the end, the offense was beautiful, but the defense and rebounding were the stories of the game – all of which, of course, brings us right back to what Kobe and everyone else were talking about, since defense and rebounding are all about effort. If the Lakers put that kind of effort into defense and rebounding for the remainder of the series, a 15th Lakers championship is all but guaranteed. In fact, if they play this hard on the defensive end and in cleaning the glass, we might not even get to see them finish it off in person.

Of course, there are no guarantees, and it remains up to the Lakers to bring the necessary effort. A good sign, however, was the Lakers' response after the game. As a group, they were very subdued. In their post-game press conferences, Gasol, Odom, and Kobe were quiet, unenthusiastic, and overly realistic about their current position. Nobody is counting any chickens. In fact, as Kobe said it, they're doing quite the opposite:

"I think the best thing we can do is just forget about it. That's the best thing we can do. This is a resilient Orlando Magic team. They've been through a lot of adverse situations before. This is nothing to them. The'll be ready to go Game 2, and we've just got to forget about this and move on."

Taken by itself, someone who heard that quote and had not seen the game would assume the Lakers had lost. It's a good mindset to have. If the Lakers maintain this attitude and continue their tremendous effort, they will accomplish the goal they established at the beginning of the season.