SB Nation - Kurt Thomas

Recap: Cavaliers 85, Bucks 83 (With Special Bonuses!)

Mitchell_M — Sat, 19 Dec 2009 17:59:31 -0000

4 days ago: Milwaukee Bucks' Brandon Jennings (3) runs into Cleveland Cavaliers' LeBron James (23) on a drive to the basket in the third quarter of an NBA basketball game Friday, Dec. 18, 2009, in Cleveland. Jennings scored 18 points in a 85-82 loss to Cleveland. (AP Photo/Mark Duncan)

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Greetings, Bucks fans. Frank and Alex are both unavailable for the Bucks-Cavaliers recap, so you guys get me. Sorry.

Box Score

The last time ESPN showed the Bucks, the team saw by the nation (and myself) was a young team both struggling without Andrew Bogut as a centerpiece and unable to keep up with Oklahoma City's rampant athleticism. It was a disappointing showing, even bordering on embarassing. But the Bucks aren't that team, and ESPN is giving them another chance to show what they really are.

Unfortunately, they drew LeBron James and the Cavs, meaning the road to redemption on national television is that much harder. But who's to say they won't do it? After all, the Bucks have some advantages in this game (weird, right?), and it always helps to have a defensive stopper with the ability to cover James one-on-one. Perhaps they can do the inconceivable and topple the Cavaliers? I sure hope so, and I certainly think they can.

(Note: For those of you wondering why I'm talking in the future tense, or why I haven't mentioned the result of the game, it's because I didn't watch it live. I DVR'd the game and watched it after getting home from work at 9 AM. Third shift sucks that way.)

This recap will be a little different than those before it. We'll still have Three Bucks, Three Numbers, and the Good and Bad, but we'll have some bonus triplets after the jump, plus some actual game analysis peppered in. Think of it as a retroactive live-blog.

On to the game (most of you have already seen)!

Three Things I Noticed Before Tip-Off

Hubie Brown and Dave Pasch were just a tad friendlier to the Cavs. Sure, they're a perennial powerhouse and led by the premier player of his generation, but do we have to make it sound like that much of a mismatch?

These teams aren't really all that different. Think about it; they both are defensive teams that keep the game's score low and can light it up from deep, they both have two big foreign guys that play defense, take charges, and rebound, and they're both led by players that arrived somewhat unexpectedly (Cleveland with the surprising #1 draft pick despite the odds, Milwaukee with 9 other teams passing on Jennings (and his impromptu entrance after being picked at #10)). It's almost like the Bucks are a poor man's Cavaliers, but then you remember that the Cavs are from Cleveland, which is a poor man's everything.

Brandon Jennings' hair makes him look even more like Allen Iverson. The corn rows aren't quite as long as A.I's yet, but give it time. I'd be frightened if his assist (6.0 apg) and three-point numbers (44%(!)) were as Iverson-like as he looks. Have I gushed about how much of a man-crush I have on BJ yet? I'll wait 'til the game starts to go full steam ahead, but let's just say he's already become my favorite NBA player.

Three First Half Observations

A Great Start. A 17-7 start before Cleveland takes its first timeout is absolutely led by Young Money (3 points, 6 assists). He would have had 7 dimes had Ersan not had his fast-break layup blocked by Shaq. I saw some good shooting, great passing, and above-average defense during this run; this is the team that the Bucks are trying to be. But they have to do it for all 48 minutes, not just the first 6:23. Which is exactly when Cleveland closed the gap and forced Milwaukee out of its game.

Jennings had a pretty good first half altogether with 8 points and 6 assists, plus he was the only Buck really willing to attack the paint. When he gets older/stronger, he'll actually finish those trips to the rack (2/9 in the first half).

The Daniel Gibson "Foul". I didn't want to waste one of my three points on one play, but this infuriated me. Gibson drove hard, froze Kurt Thomas with a ball fake, and went up for the layup. Thomas' foot was very close to the one Boobie took off on, so much so that Gibson's reaction resulting in his right foot taking out his left, thus sending him to the floor. He made the shot nonetheless, and it was a great play with an outstanding effort to make the basket. Then came the whistle, and Boobie took the line for the and-one.

BUT THERE WAS ABSOLUTELY NO CONTACT. NONE WHATSOEVER. Just because a player trips over his own feet while shooting and a defender just happens to be near him (BUT NOT TOUCHING HIM AT ALL) doesn't mean he should get a freebie. Now, I reffed college intramurals, so I know how calls can be almost impossible to truly see at certain speeds, angles, and whatnot, and that's magnified 1000x in the NBA, but c'mon. Then, of course, Hubie Brown went on a long diatribe about how you don't foul a player when you get out of position and give him the and-one, unless you foul his arms to prevent the layup attempt, blah blah blah, completely discounting the fact that it was a phantom call. Gah, basketball can be infuriating sometimes.

To prove my point, Boobie missed the free throw. Ball don't lie.

Bogut + foul trouble = complete inability to protect the paint. Andy's three quick fouls (one of which was legit, one was iffy, and one was downright ticky-tack) limited him to less than 6 minutes in the half and opened up the lane faster than you can say "massive free throw discrepancy". Oh, and there was a massive free throw discrepancy (CLE - 21 attempts, MIL - 5 attempts). Part of this was too much jump shooting by Milwaukee, part of it was bad calls here and there, but most of it was missing Bogut.

Three Second Half Observations

When Cleveland asserts itself, they're impressive. The Bucks have enough good shooters to out-gun teams that get caught up in a scorefest. Good teams avoid playing to their opponents strength. Cleveland is a good team, which is why they forced the issue inside while Milwaukee was content to stay along the perimeter. Of course, they're often better than good, considering they've got a bunch of shooters to go with their strong post presence.

LeBron's post defense. There was one sequence at the 3:30 mark in the 3rd quarter where Hakim Warrick tried posting James up...and Bron-Bron didn't go anywhere. Warrick actually lost the ball because he simply couldn't move James off the spot. The look (I thought I saw) on his face was half surprise, half amazement.

The last 4:35. Milwaukee was getting handled, but managed to stick around long enough to gain possession with 9.7 seconds left and a chance to force overtime with a three pointer. More on this later.

Three Bucks

Brandon Jennings. Jennings reversed his historical trends by starting off hot and cooling off near the end. However, his 18 point, 8 assist night was punctuated by his 7-7 performance from the free throw line. Attacking the basket is something Jennings will have to learn how to do, which will hopefully cut down on the 5-21 shooting nights.

Ersan Ilyasova. Ersan only got 31 minutes, but he generally made good things happen during those minutes. He tied Jennings' 18 points and was +6 in point differential, but his defense, rebounding, and relentless motor was the defining characteristic of the Bucks relatively competent outing and ultimately kept them in the game.

Charlie Bell. Charlie didn't do that much (16 points, 1 rebound), but he was serviceable on offense and as-good-as-the-situation-allowed on defense. If only Skiles would stop putting him on taller players. The dude's only 6'3", asking him to cover the likes of Kobe (6'6") and LeBron (6'8") is downright silly.

Three Numbers

.269. If you're a jump shooting team, make sure that you make more than just barely over a quarter of your three point shots. I know Cleveland has a superb defense, but anytime you take that many threes (22 attempts), try to make more than 27% (7 makes). I wouldn't harp on this so much if I didn't see at least three airballs (Bell, Ilyasova, and Jennings) over the course of the game.

17:09. Bogut played significantly more in the second half, but he was so timid after racking up three first half fouls that it was largely ineffective. He still managed 8 rebounds and 2 blocks, but when you're the only low-post threat on a team that needs a credible low-post threat, you need to bring it against an old Shaquille O'Neal and an older Zydrunas Ilgauskas.

-17. Free throw differential. And that's just attempts: the Bucks were -13 in terms of makes. 'Nuff said.

Three Good

The last 4:35. I said I'd come back to this. The fourth quarter was a statistical win for the Bucks (21-14), but from the start until the 4:36 mark, they let the Cavs do whatever they wanted. That's how Cleveland opened up a big lead and ultimately gave Milwaukee the W. But let's look at the results of Cleveland's possession during this timeframe:

Turnover
Missed jumper
Block
Missed jumper
Missed 3-pointer
Shot clock violation (off of a Cleveland offensive rebound)
Missed 3-pointer
Turnover

If you're going to go for the ugly win, stretches like this are exactly what you need on defense. A Bucks win would have certainly been ugly, and it's a shame they couldn't make it happen, but with the game on the line, they managed to pick themselves back up and turn it back into a competition with an elite Eastern Conference team.

Jennings' shot defense. Maybe it's because I'm a fellow skinny PG, but when I see Brandon bust his hump getting a hand in the shooter's face, it makes me happy. He won't be able to outmuscle anybody, but he can make shooters miss through sheer annoyance. I chalk it up to good coaching (thanks, Kelvin Sampson!).

This point is less about Jennings' use of the lost art of "hand-in-face" and more about his exceptional effort. He plays like a guy who flat-out loves the sport, and if he works in practice as hard as he does in games (which I hear he does), he's going to be huge.

Determination, swagger, and stick-to-it-iveness. Results aside, the most important thing about this game is that the Bucks showed a national audience that they can hang with the Eastern Conference elite. They play feisty defense, unselfish offense, and once they become more seasoned, they will be able to hang with any team on any night, if they aren't already. Shoot, they took the Blazers and Lakers to overtime and played a tight game against the Cavs. That's one very good team and two elite teams.

Most importantly, they didn't fold. Down 10 going into the fourth and 13 with six minutes left, they could have just let Cleveland keep hammering them, but they didn't go away. They held the Cavs scoreless in the final 4:35 and pulled to within three. That says something to me. Maybe the casual fan won't see it, but I can see it. This team is actually going to become something.

Three Bad

Luc Richard Mbah a Moute's foot. While it may be healed, it clearly isn't 100% yet. Whenever Luc was matched up on LeBron James, good things happened. Whenever Bell, Delfino, or someone else was matched up on James, bad things happened very quickly. I cannot keep track of how many times I saw someone other than the Prince defending King James and immediately thought "This cannot end well."

Quite simply, if Milwaukee wants to be a serious team, they need Luc to lock down the other team's best non-center. I don't care if his range is minimal, his shot mechanics are off, and his post game is weak: when he's locking someone down, they become a non-factor.

Addiction to jump shots. The Bucks are a jump shooting team. We know that. But unless they're willing to at least entertain the notion of driving to the basket, they won't become anything special. I know that the makeup of the team lends itself to a jump shot oriented offense (Jennings, Ridnour, Redd, Ilyasova, Delfino, even Thomas and Gadzuric), and some of those guys can drive to the hoop, but they have to want to. Right now, Jennings and Warrick are the only players who want to earn free throws. Two of twelve isn't nearly enough to create balance on offense, and no offensive balance leads to sub-par seasons and early playoff exits.

Fouling. Too much by Milwaukee (22), not enough by Cleveland (16). There's no easier way to break it down. Physical defense is great as long as it isn't sloppy, and it was terribly sloppy this time.

Three Wishes (a.k.a. What I Want To See Happen No Later Than All-Star Weekend)

An increase in plays ran for Luc Richard Mbah a Moute resulting in a corner-3 attempt. I know I just decried the Era of the Jumper in Milwaukee, but Luc needs more minutes, and the only way he can do that is if he makes himself useful on offense. What better way to do that than harness the power of the corner-3, following the footsteps of longtime defensive ace Bruce Bowen? And what better time to do that than during a season where the team is overachieving and searching for offensive identity?

Redd inserted as a permanent 6th man. No, he's not effective yet. He's still recovering from that ACL tear, and he's going to be playing his way back into shape. The sooner we accept it, the sooner we can accept his new role as a bench scorer. A second string Big Three of Ridnour, Redd, and Warrick can be potent if all three figure out their best roles. Speaking of Ridnour...

Ridnour signed to a reasonable extension. Frank explored the anomaly that is Frodo's scorching start to 2009, and I tend to agree with the consensus that it's likely just a prolonged hot streak. But regarding the question of what to actually do with him? I'm all for keeping him.

Look, Brandon's the man, but I doubt if Iverson's doppleganger will emulate the 47 minute outings put forth by his predecessor. Jennings should play at a high level for as long as he's able, and I see that level being sustainable for no more than 35 minutes a night. If you have a chance to lock in a backup who can take the majority of the remaining minutes and still play effectively and meshes well with the starter in certain situations, take it! Unless Ridnour's agent is looking for ridiculous Danny G money, I say sign Frodo for as much Shire-money as he wants (but as little as it takes).

* * *

Thanks for having me, guys. See you next time I manage to catch the Bucks on national TV and both Frank and Alex are unable to do the recap. If that doesn't happen (which it probably won't), I'll see you in the comments.

Recap: Magic 100, Bucks 98

Alex Boeder — Sun, 29 Nov 2009 08:14:56 -0000

More photos » by Morry Gash - AP

Jennings and Howard: Agony and ecstacy

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Box Score

MILWAUKEE - They aren't the defending conference champs for a reason; they are the defending conference champs for many reasons. Unfortunately, 16,128 saw just enough of those reasons at the Bradley Center tonight, where the Bucks lost for the second time this season, for the second time in a way that hurts all the way home.

The Bucks hosted a road team that entered Milwaukee with wins in Boston, Atlanta, and Toronto (twice) already this season. Those three at home against other teams? 19-2.

Orlando wins the pregame matchups when everyone is ready to roll, but: Howard + Carter - Bogut - Mbah a Moute = Abject Inequality. Still the Bucks raced to a lead, and not just a lead, a double digit advantage that ballooned all the way to 17 in the third quarter before Jason Williams and Vince Carter popped that balloon with threes and dunks like it was 1999, or thereabout. The YouTube wonderbackcourt of years past combined for 16 points in the final six and a half minutes of the third.

A back-and-forth fourth quarter ended after Ersan Ilyasova and Luke Ridnour both missed shots with less than a half minute and the Magic up two. But Ilyasova and Ridnour were more heroic than scapegoats despite the misses, and the shorthanded Bucks were more impressive than anything else despite the loss...

Three Bucks

Ersan Ilyasova. Milwaukee's Man of the Match missed a free throw late and then a potential game-winning three with half a minute to go, but there's no faulting someone who earned a (partial) standing ovation for a single offensive rebound -- especially when it was one of seven reeled in off the offensive glass.

Ilyasova hauled in a rebound of a missed three pointer by Brandon Jennings in the third quarter, earning a roaring approval from the crowd as Milwaukee called for time. The Bucks missed five shots in a row in that series midway through the third quarter, but Ersan kept possessions alive all night.

His day in the late-game sun will come; he's too good of a shooter to keep coming up short in the clutch. But for now I'm fully satisfied with his Howardish 20 points and 16 rebounds and un-Howardish zero turnovers. Would anyone rather have Charlie Villanueva right now?

Luke Ridnour. The vet, backup point again outplayed Jennings tonight, but let's keep him coming off the bench, where he's thriving. I continue telling myself (and you) that he can't shoot like this forever, but Ridnour's aim remained very on for at least another night. He was easily the team's most efficient offensive player with 20 points on 9-15 from the field, and he made his only free throw and three pointer.

But like Ilyasova, he missed at the end. And that decision to shoot a tough, fadeaway jumper with a new shot clock available and 27 seconds remaining in the game was certainly questionable. But he wasn't worrying about degree of difficulty the whole night, and they were mostly falling until then. Both he and Ilyasova gained the confidence throughout to attempt those decisive shots, and that's nice. So is 20 points, 6 assists and a couple steals from the backup point guard.

Hakim Warrick. Four straight 15+ point games for Warrick, who is forming a rather sufficient power forward duo along with Ersan. Hak belongs around the basket. He can start his dunk from just about anywhere inside the perimeter and make it happen. That's high percentage, even if he misses a dunk, like he did once tonight (those two points would've been nice). And he usually has that one-track-dunk-mind. So it was a bit strange to see three falling-away jumpers look so very clean in the first half.

I like that he made those jumpers, but even on a good night like this one he only made 3-7 on shots outside the paint. Warrick is one of the few Bucks who is capable of getting to the line (led the team in making a modest 4-4 free throws tonight) and he gets there when aggressive. Diversifying the offensive portfolio is great, but right now he can drive to the basket with authority like no other Buck, so let's focus on that, cool?

Three Numbers

6. The Bucks committed just six turnovers in the entire game, the same number as Dwight Howard had all by his lonesome. The starting backcourt of Jennings and Bell combined for just a single turnover in 70 minutes.

8-9. Milwaukee made 8-9 three pointers to start the game, helping push them to an early lead. Ultimately they couldn't sustain shooting threes like that, or not-so-coincidentally the lead. But they still outshot the three-point-happy Magic from outside, making a marksmanlike11-19 in the game compared to 8-22 for Orlando.

56.0 %. A game after facing the league's most accurate from the line in OKC, the Bucks faced the NBA's worst free throw shooting team, and the Magic lived down to the billing by hitting just 14-25 (.560) from the line. Combined with Milwaukee's hot outside shooting, this one was ripe for the taking.

Three Good

Happy home. I don't know (or maybe I don't want to know) how close to .500 the Bucks can play on the road, but all indications are that they will post plenty of wins at home. The only two losses so far came against a very good Mavs team on a Dirk overtime buzzer-beater, and now tonight against the (improved) defending Eastern Conference champs by a couple points. Milwaukee had chances to win both games, and opponents haven't looked very happy following pre-game warmups at the BC this year.

Not a bad home performance yet among eight, and attendance reached a season-high 16,128 tonight... feelin' like a legit home court advantage.

Supersubs. Missing three usual starters in Bogut, Redd, and Mbah a Moute, Milwaukee's bench realistically shouldn't be so hot. Especially compared to a very good, deep team in better health. Ryan Anderson, J.J. Redick, and Brandon Bass lead one of the finest seconds units in the league, but the Bucks' bench was better tonight. The aforementioned Ridnour and Warrick were stars and scored a dozen more points (36) than the entire Magic bench.

And with Dan Gadzuric accurately deemed helpless against Howard (4 fouls in 4 minutes), Kurt Thomas assumed the unenviable task of guarding the superstar for almost 30 minutes. He slowed, even frustrated Howard some, and pulled down a few offensive boards in a solid run off the bench.

Care. Skiles has spoken often recently about the Bucks turning the ball over too much. Just six turnovers tonight. And after a couple weeks having trouble while facing tremendous defensive pressure and specific gameplans targeting him, Jennings didn't commit a single turnover against a good defensive team, ranked 5th in the NBA coming in.

Three Bad

Leads to losses. Going into this game, the Bucks had no business winning, but once you accumulate a lead as big as 17, it's yours to lose. And they lost it. The Magic are really good, and if this was something new, it would be more understandable. But after so recently blowing the Hornets game, it's not new at all. And they crashed pretty hard against the Bulls to start this month, too. I don't see the Bucks coming back from big deficits to win, so there is really no evening out here.

The Bucks led by 17 points with under three minutes in the first half after a three by Jennings. Even against a premier opponent like the Magic, that's a healthy lead. But Milwaukee quite quickly gave it up, as Orlando closed to within nine by halftime.

In fact, the Bucks closed quarters poorly all night. After allowing that game-high 17 point second quarter lead dwindle to nine, they finished the third quarter even worse. Up 70-58 with four and change left in the third, the Magic went on a 15-2 run to take a lead into the fourth quarter. And we know how that quarter ended...

The end. Skiles maintained that it was the correct decision to play straight-up defense down by two on the final possession.

"I would foul if it was a bad foul shooter, but we've got to be able to make a stop right there, get the rebound, take a timeout, and have another chance," Skiles said.

But with 27 seconds and thusly a three second difference between the shot and game clock, the Magic could and should have waited until the last second to shoot, which would have left maybe a second if the Bucks secured the defensive rebound... which obviously was never meant to be anyway. Not sure I'm comfortable with that defensive philosophy though. Okay, I am sure. That I'm not.

Hurting. If Redd was perfectly spritely the past few games, that would be a bigger problem than any. So it's reassuring in some ways that Mike is still hurting; at least we can assume he will eventually play better, which shouldn't be too difficult. But the fact the team's two biggest, pre-Jennings names never seem quite right is a real worry hanging over the franchise even while the rest of the club plays so admirably in their absence.

It doesn't help that Mbah a Moute, who was originally considered day-to-day, doesn't physically appear ready to return right away.

Here we go again? Bogut to miss 2-4 weeks

Frank Madden — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 02:04:22 -0000

More photos » by Gary Dineen - NBAE/Getty Images

Sadly, we won't be seeing this for a while.

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Just when it was starting to be fun to be a Bucks fan, this happens. Figures, right?

The Bucks announced today that Andrew Bogut will miss up to a month thanks to the so-called "left leg strain and contusion" he suffered in the waning minutes of last night's win over New Jersey. Bogut suffered the injury on a loose ball under the Nets' basket, playing one more possession before walking to the locker room under his own power. It was hoped the injury would be a minor one, but an MRI today said otherwise.

As always seems to be the case when Bogut gets injured, the Bucks' description isn't particularly informative--kind of like the "leg sprain" Bogut suffered in October 2006 (His whole leg was sprained? What does that even mean?) or the misdiagnosed back injury that ended his season a year ago. As you might remember, Bogut took less than a month to recover from his leg sprain, which was initially thought to shelve him for 6-8 weeks. I'm not sure how similar this injury is, but hopefully he again beats expectations and is back in a week or two (and yes, I'm blocking out what happened last year, when the exact opposite happened with his back injury...happy thoughts, happy thoughts).

Bogut's injury comes just as Michael Redd is getting healthy, so if you were looking for an experiment to demonstrate the relative values of each guy, now you'll get it. In Bogut's stead you can obviously expect to see more of Dan Gadzuric and Kurt Thomas, and Francisco Elson might even make an appearance. But after a strong start to the season, Gadzuric hasn't played more than nine minutes in any of the Bucks' last four games, and Thomas hasn't played in three of the Bucks' last five (maxing out at six minutes). The Bucks will probably be going small more regularly as well, so don't be surprised to see Ersan Ilyasova getting more minutes in the pivot. How well the Bucks can hold the fort without Bogut is unclear (see our poll), but it will clearly have a lot to do with Brandon Jennings' ability to continue shouldering the scoring load. All we can say is this: feel better, Drew.

Poll

Andrew Bogut is out...what now?

In Brandon we trust.

357 votes

And thus begins the Bucks' annual downward spiral.

232 votes

589 votes | Poll has closed

The Road to the Promised Land is Fraught With Difficulty

C.A. Clark — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 15:12:58 -0000

We here at Silver Screen and Roll have done just about everything we can to prepare you for the upcoming season. We’ve looked at everybody on the team, all 5 positions, and even the coaches. We’ve identified the important and telling statistical features to pay attention to in the upcoming season. We’ve even taken you on a bit of a history lesson, looking at how things played out every other time the Lakers have attempted to defend a championship. The only thing left to do is spend some time talking about the teams that are the most likely to keep L.A. from reaching the intended destination: Repeat champions.

In former seasons, a Contenders preview might have been a short piece. Earlier this decade, for example, one would really only have to mention the Kings and the Spurs, and perhaps pay lip service to whichever Eastern Conference teams were likely to be served up as sacrificial lambs to the almighty Western Conference. In the 80’s, the entire piece would probably be about Boston (until Detroit got involved later in the decade). Philadelphia was good in the early part of the decade, and Milwaukee was always pretty strong, but in the end, it was likely going to be Boston and L.A. This year is different. This year, there are four main contenders the Lakers will have to deal with, and each one of them has a legitimate chance to win the title, at least on paper. And paper is all that we can deal with at this point.

What does the paper tell us? It tells us this season is going to be something special. Historically special, if you ask me. So many circumstances have come together to create a perfect storm of ridiculously talented teams.

The Summer of 2010 has created a very unique free agency situation, where the only teams interested in adding players are those who think they can win a title. All other teams are content to sit this season out so that they have the necessary cap space to go after the big name free agents next season. That’s why you’ve seen deals like Artest and Sheed for the Mid Level Exception, Brandon Bass for less than the MLE. Hell, even Odom’s 8 mil per year probably wouldn’t happen in a normal year, somebody would have out bid us for Odom’s services, but nobody wants to commit long term money this year, unless they are going for broke.
Adding to this "Contenders will spend, everyone else will not" mode is that the economy sucks (both in general, and specifically related to the NBA). There are lots of small market teams who are losing a lot of money, and they don’t want to shell out for anything. In fact, they are pretty much willing to give you anybody on their team for a contract that won’t last as long, or isn’t fully guaranteed.
There are three teams who are legitimately in "This is our last chance, we have to give it everything we have" mode. Boston and San Antonio have aging core players who will only get worse as seasons pass. And Cleveland has to win this year so that they can convince The King not to jump ship in the offseason. That, combined with factor #1 and #2, has led to deals like Richard Jefferson and Shaq being traded for expiring contracts. And Boston and Cleveland signed an entire roster’s worth of decent players to come off the bench.
Further adding to the economic uncertainty of the entire league, the current Collective Bargaining Agreement is set to expire in 2011, and there is a very decent chance that a work stoppage will occur at that time, because the owners have made it clear that many things will have to change, or the smaller market teams may go out of business. The main point here is: If you aren’t building a team that can win in the next two seasons, you might as well not even bother.

The result of all of these collective circumstances coming together is not one, but 5 incredibly good teams. If you don’t believe me, consider this statement. Every team that has participated in the NBA Finals in the last three seasons is entering this season with a team which is better than the one that won a championship, or came close. There are 5 teams this year which might all be better than the champions of the past three seasons. I can’t verify it with research, but I’d be willing to bet a small fortune that this has never happened before. In fact, taking it one step further, if you assume that San Antonio is a better version of their own previous championship-winning teams this year, you could make a legitimate case that any one of the 5 best teams from this year might be better than ALL of the past champions dating back to the beginning of the post Lakers dynasty. There is simply no precedent for this level of improvement in so many championship quality teams.

I think this will go down as the most top heavy season in NBA history. All four of these teams (plus the Lakers of course) could win 60 games. If (and this is of course the big if) all 5 teams stay relatively healthy, I think all 5 will do it, because these teams are all that good, and they all know that there are 4 other teams which are just as good as they are. Everyone will be looking for every advantage they can get, and home court advantage is the biggest prize that can be had. They say that the regular season is a marathon, not a sprint. This year, such an attitude will see you get left in the dust. All these teams know it, and all of them (except maybe San Antonio) will come out of the gate hard and never turn back. As I’ve written before, I think that it is possible a team could win 70 games this season, and NOT win the NBA championship. There are simply no impossible scenarios this year.

Sorry for the extremely long intro. In truth, it could and should be treated as its own piece regarding the nature of the NBA this season. Now, without further ado, here’s a breakdown of the four main contenders to the Lakers throne (in alphabetical order, so as to not stir up additional argument).

Boston Celtics

On paper, this may be the most formidable team of the bunch. Their starting 5 contains 3 Hall of Famers, a point guard who nearly averaged a triple double in a playoff series last year and is generally considered an All-Star in the making, and a brick wall for a center who’s only job is to rebound and block shots. In case you are wondering, he’s pretty good at his job. Their bench has turned from a weakness into a strength with the signings of Rasheed Wallace and Marquis Daniels to a unit already boasting a very good shooter in Eddie House, and a decent backup power forward in Big Baby Davis.

The Celtics’ defense is what makes this team so potentially special. Two years ago, they were one of the better defenses of all time (statistically proven). They still have the same core of guys, although the loss of James Posey definitely hurts them on that side of the ball. With the addition of Rasheed Wallace (in his prime, a very good defender), the potential exists for this team to be even better on defense than they were two years ago, which is a scary thought.

Unfortunately for the C’s, the regular season and the playoffs aren’t played out on paper. While the Celtics have the best potential for greatness of the four teams previewed here, they also have the biggest question marks. I’m sorry, I meant question mark. Because any analysis of the Celtics’ potential boils down to one question, what are they getting from KG? If KG is at his best, returning to the form he had two years ago, captaining the Celtics’ defense and instilling them with the intensity and mentality for which he is known, the Celtics become an extremely difficult team to beat. If he remains limited, because his knee injury isn’t an injury at all, instead just wear and tear at the end of a very long career, then the Celtics become very beatable. Not as vulnerable as last year, because picking up Sheed should help them if Garnett turns out to be limited again, but not a favorite, especially in this stacked field. The Celtics’ entire season hinges almost entirely on the health of Kevin Garnett. There are other questions (will Pierce and Allen decline at all? Was Sheed’s failure last season due to lack of motivation, or deterioration of skill and athleticism), but in the end, KG decides almost everything for them.

A Lakers-Celtics matchup in this year’s Finals would be almost as if envisioned by God himself. Sure, there’s the rivalry itself, the major media markets involved, but the main factor is the style of play these two teams possess. They are the NBA’s Yin and Yang. Kelly Dwyer described these two teams so perfectly at the beginning of last season (before KG went down) that I simply have to use that description.

The Lakers are a devastating offensive team who play defense so well you can’t possibly hope to outscore them. The Celtics are a devastating defensive team who play offense so well you can’t possibly hope to keep them from outscoring you.

That’s why, in terms of being able to observe a legendary matchup, Lakers-Celtics should be what you root for. In terms of who the matchups favor, that’s a tough, tough question. If KG is what he should be, Pau will have to prove once and for all that he can handle KG’s physicality, and Bynum will have to have success against a very good post defender in Perkins. Also, the Lakers ability to handle the pick and roll will be vital to success against Boston, because the PG position is the only place where the Celtics have a clear cut advantage on the floor.

Cleveland Cavaliers

The truth is, no one really knows what to make of this Cavaliers team, because their regular season and the end of their playoff run were so incongruous. Is the real Cavaliers team the one that won 66 games, good for home court advantage throughout the playoffs? Or is it the team that crashed out to the Orlando Magic, lucky to extend that series even 6 games, even though the Magic were without their All-Star point guard and the Cavs had no serious injuries?

The answer to that question? None of the above, because this year’s team bears little resemblance to last year’s squad. Gone are Ben Wallace and Sasha Pavlovic, entering are Shaq, Anthony Parker, Jamario Moon, and Leon Powe (once he recovers from injury). This is a completely different team, which is why the Cavs have the greatest potential of any of the 5 to fail. The addition of Shaq cost them basically nothing, in terms of player personnel. But Shaq changes the way a team plays offense, and it will be interesting to see how well he is incorporated to the offense, while maintaining the same model which enjoyed success last season. Also, the addition of Shaq does little to address the matchup problems which Orlando created for Cleveland last season. They still appear to be a team that can be pick and rolled to death, as neither Shaq nor Big Z have the quickness to be able to do much with a quick guard coming off the screen. But the biggest question, the biggest problem, facing this Cavaliers team doesn’t have to do with players at all. The Cavs might struggle more this season because they lost Jon Kuester, who was the offensive mastermind that turned the Cavs offense from a slightly upgraded version of the Los Angeles Kobes (circa 2005) into a very decent offensive team last year. Kuester is now the head coach for the Pistons, and his offensive mind has not been replaced. That, combined with head coach Mike Brown’s lack of offensive acumen, and the addition of an offense changing force like Shaq, could be the biggest issue with the Cavs recapturing even last season’s success.

Still, this is a team that won 66 games last season, and they have improved their depth over last season’s squad. And they have LeBron James. Regardless of where you fall on the James scale, there is simply no denying that he is a dynamic force that is capable of carrying a team. If the Cavs overachieved last season, he’s the reason why. No team with LeBron is going to be a bad one, and he has more talent around him than he’s ever had before.

A Lakers-Cavs matchup would have a ton of storylines attached to it. Kobe vs. LeBron. Shaq vs. the Lakers (and Shaq vs. Kobe specifically). Nike (and something like 10 other sponsors) would have an absolute field day. That said, for me the Lakers cause far more matchup problems with the Cavs than the Cavs do with the Lakers. They played twice last season and the Lakers won relatively comfortably both times. Despite all their success, one never got the impression that the Cavs were better than the Lakers in a head to head matchup last season, and I see too many questions this season to believe that has changed.

Orlando Magic

More than any other team on this list, the Orlando Magic are in a similar situation to the Los Angeles Lakers. They will be good next year, there is no doubt. But they will also be good the year after that, and the year after that, and so on. Unlike Boston and San Antonio, Orlando’s core are young players. Vince Carter is no spring chicken, but Dwight Howard and Jameer Nelson are both still in the ascension phase of their careers, and Rashard Lewis isn’t on the way down. Unlike Cleveland, there’s no doubt regarding their young star’s presence on this team for years to come. Like LA (with Bynum, Farmar, Brown etc.), Orlando has the greatest possibility of improvement simply because their players are still improving. Howard should continue to develop an offensive game, and Nelson was having a truly breakout year before he got seriously injured.

However, unlike LA, Orlando was very busy in the offseason. They allowed Hedo Turkoglu to sign with another team, but they traded for Vince Carter, who is theoretically an upgrade over what Hedo provided. They also signed Brandon Bass, and pimp slapped the Dallas Mavericks by matching Dallas’ offer for Marcin Gortat, after Dallas did not match Orlando’s offer for Bass. It remains to be seen, but they appear to have significantly improved upon a very good team, especially considering they made the Finals with Jameer Nelson playing the role of "The Shell of Jameer Nelson". A healthy Nelson alone would be reason for this team to be optimistic about their chances. However, they were taken to 7 games by a depleted Celtics roster, and Boston does have the personnel to deal with Orlando’s matchup nightmare, Rashard Lewis. So it’s easy to see why the Magic felt the need to make so many plays to try and keep ahead of the curve in the Eastern Conference.

Similar to the Lakers situation, the Magic’s season will be defined by how well they incorporate their new star player into a very successful, and somewhat unorthodox, offensive system. If the ball gets sticky in Vince Carter’s hands, and he isn’t as successful a playmaker as Turkoglu was, Orlando might not be as successful. Then again, Vince Carter’s best is far beyond Hedo’s best, so it seems likely that everything gets worked out. VC isn’t the best defender in the world, and Orlando was a very good defensive team last season, but Howard is the best backstop in the league, so VC’s defensive weaknesses will be somewhat masked. Besides, when was Hedo ever known as a defensive juggernaut.

A matchup between Orlando and LA doesn’t seem particularly interesting to me, if only because we have seen it so recently. Yes, a few of the faces have changed, but the core matchup problems still exist, and those matchups seem to be heavily in favor of L.A. Although Bass should help them in the rebounding category, he is still very undersized, and the Lakers should be able to take advantage of their very good length, regardless of whether Bass or Lewis is playing PF. The only area that the Magic truly have the advantage against LA is at the PG position, and Jameer Nelson was definitely the main reason why Orlando swept LA during the regular season, but Orlando has gotten worse, not better, at defending on the perimeter, so if the two do end up re-matching last year’s Finals, look for Kobe to have even more success than he had the year previous.

San Antonio Spurs

Always included in a list of contenders, the Spurs are the only team on this list that weren’t particularly good last year. They limped into the playoffs (literally and figuratively) before exiting in Round One to a Dallas Mavericks team that seems to consistently have their number. So, if they are to truly be included in this list, they clearly have the furthest to travel from last season’s mediocrity. And yet, here they are, undisputedly included amongst the league’s best. I guess a core that has won 3 championships, and is led by one of, if not the, greatest power forwards of all time, gives you a little bit of street cred.

And yet San Antonio would probably not be on this list if they didn’t make what has to be the most one sided trade since Pau to the Lakers. The terms of that trade with the Milwaukee Bucks? Richard Jefferson, a former All-Star, for Bruce Bowen, Fabricio Oberto, and Kurt Thomas. Of the three, only Thomas is still on the Bucks roster. And that’s not all San Antonio did. They signed Antonio McDyess to be their big man off the bench. They drafted Dejuan Blair, despite the fact that he apparently has no knees, and are making every team who let him slide through the first round look foolish as Blair looks like an absolute beast. The kid may not last 5 years in the league, but the Spurs are going to get a huge Return on Investment while he’s here. It’s quite possible the Spurs have had the most successful summer of all, but they needed to do so in order to even be included on this list.

Like Boston, San Antonio’s entire season is defined by how healthy their stars are. I guess all teams can be defined this way, but San Antonio’s case is special, because they have the most injury prone star of any of these teams, Manu Ginobli. A healthy Ginobli is a game changing force, fearlessly driving the lane, getting layups at ridiculous angles, hitting 3’s and making plays for his entire team. A Ginobli hampered by injury is depressing, trying to do all the things he knows he can do, and having no success. San Antonio hasn’t seen healthy Ginobli in the playoffs since their last championship, three years ago. That’s why the Lakers beat San Antonio with little trouble in 2008, and why the Spurs were dispatched in the first round in 2009. If anything, trading for Jefferson has better prepared the Spurs to deal with an injury to Ginobli, but if he isn’t 100% come playoff time, it’s hard to imagine the Spurs making it through the Gauntlet to give TD a 5^th ring. But Ginobli isn’t even the Spurs most important health concern, just the most troubling. The most important is, of course, Tim Duncan. Duncan is getting up in years, and in games played, and he definitely took a step back in 2009, the type of step back that won’t be reversed by another step forward. If Duncan continues on the slow, steady decline rate, and Ginobli is healthy, the Spurs are a force to be reckoned with, backed by more Championship experience than any other team in the mix. But if Duncan drops off considerably, or even worse, his body starts giving up on him, the Spurs simply can’t be successful without their anchor in the middle.

A Spurs-Lakers matchup is extremely likely, as they do seem to be the cream of the crop in the Western Conference. It’s a matchup that always excites, but the new faces this time around make it a bit tough to analyze properly. Tony Parker will always kill LA, and his speed is absolute death to Derek Fisher. However, the Spurs no longer have a Bruce Bowen type to even slow down Kobe Bryant. Ginobli will need to be at his absolute peak to even have a chance at matching up with Kobe, and if he isn’t, Bryant will be able to dominate enough to counter-balance the Spurs advantage at the point. Artest should be able to do alright with Jefferson, and you have to like the Lakers front court depth over the Spurs’, even if Duncan is close to as good as he is capable of at this point.

Some quick snippets on the sleepers

Portland has the greatest potential of any team to crash this Big 5. They have a ton of young talent, and they made a huge jump from two years ago to last year. Another huge jump is quite possible. But, in the end, they need too many people to improve, and have to change their entire team mentality regarding defense, so it seems unlikely. Besides, even if they do join the ranks of the elite, it will be their first time on the dance floor when they come up against the championship experience of the Lakers or the Spurs, and it’s a pretty safe bet they won’t be able to handle the pressure, even if everything else is equal. They are still 1-2 years away.
Dallas has made improvements, but they have serious holes on the defensive side of things. Besides, I’m not sold at all on Shawn Marion’s ability to change the dynamic of a team that, even at its best, was a step behind a few other teams in the West
Denver seems likely to fall back down to earth this season. I don’t see any particular reason to expect dramatic improvement over last year’s squad, and last year’s squad had a great deal of things go right for them. I expect them to take a step back.
Washington is an interesting team in the East. They’ve added a bunch of pieces, and getting a player like Arenas back is nothing to sneeze at. They have to prove to be worth their salt on defense before anybody will consider them a threat to the 3 powers already residing in the East.

Sorry for the tome, but this subject just keeps on going and going. Did anybody even make it to the end? Who do you think poses the biggest threat to the Lakers’ repeat aspirations?

Poll

Who poses the greatest threat to the Lakers in 2009-2010?

Boston Celtics

459 votes

Cleveland Cavaliers

122 votes

Orlando Magic

165 votes

San Antonio Spurs

275 votes

Somebody else

125 votes

1146 votes | Poll has closed

Recap: Pistons 95, Bucks 93

Frank Madden — Sun, 25 Oct 2009 21:43:19 -0000

Box Score / Recap

Down.

Up.

Down.

The exhibition season is now done, leaving us to sort through a predictably mixed bag of results. The annual MACC Fund finale game saw the Bucks fall for a second time to the Pistons to finish the preseason at 3-5, reaffirming that despite occasional signs of progress, the club remains a definite work in progress.

The Bucks started the preseason with just two players penciled in as sure-fire starters: Michael Redd and Andrew Bogut. Considering neither had played a regular season game in about eight months, there was still understandable trepidation about both guys' ability to be at 100% come opening night. So the best news of the exhibition season was that eight games later both have proven they're ready for opening night--presuming nothing unforeseen happens in practice this week.

On Friday Redd (37 min) and Bogut (32) both broke the 30 minute barrier for the first time, with Redd leading the Bucks with 23 points on a tidy 18 shots and Bogut narrowly missing his third straight double-double with 10/9. Still, the opening quarter was brutal by any standard, as the teams combined for just 11 points in the first six minutes. Charlie Villanueva scored back-to-back buckets to give the ~~Bucks~~ Pistons a 7-4 lead but didn't do much after that, finishing 3/8 from the field for eight points along with six boards, three turnovers, and a -19 differential in 26 minutes. The starters did better in the third, building a 12-point edge that evaporated once Bogut went to the bench.

The Point: Jennings with the Edge?

Brandon Jennings started his third straight game, but didn't help his case much with a 2/9 shooting performance and uneven defense. His first field goal didn't come until a second effort in the lane midway through the fourth, though he followed it up with a triple shortly thereafter that cut the Piston lead to one. Defensively, he's still prone to getting rubbed out on screens--knifing around them is an art he's still learning--and he sometimes lets guys blow by him (hello, Will Bynum) despite having the quickness to prevent that kind of thing.

Ridnour didn't exactly take advantage of the opening, however, scoring six with one assist and three turnovers in 13 minutes. The Bucks were also outscored by 15 points while Ridnour was on the court--compared to +10 for Jennings--but that's also partly a product of who he was playing with. As we've mentioned, the problem with a Ridnour/Jennings rotation is that both guys look a lot better when they're surrounded by, you know, good players. Via Charles Gardner, Scott Skiles was really impressed:

"Our point guards had a hard time even getting the ball up the floor and getting into position to run our offense. On the other end, they shot 69% in the fourth quarter.

"Gordon, Stuckey and Bynum took us wherever they wanted to, and we didn't have much response to it.

"This was not a great night for Brandon. He looked like a rookie out there. But that's why you play these games, so he can get a further understanding of what it takes to excel at this level."

Before the preseason I was a bit skeptical of Jennings' readiness to start on opening night, and Ridnour's good play (.535/.429 shooting) in the first five games didn't help Jennings' chances. But Ridnour is what he is: a mediocre shooter whose best trait is a willingness to get out of the way. Meanwhile, Jennings for all his rawness (33% shooting, nearly 3 to/g in 26 mpg) brings a different dimension to the game, and Skiles knows the Bucks won't be going anywhere until Jennings starts to figure things out. Jennings needs to be more aggressive getting into the lane rather than just looking for his jumper, but unlike Ridnour he's at least capable of getting into the lane. Whoever starts, I'd expect both guys to get 20+ mpg early on.

Forward Spots: Delfino and...

Though he'll be suspended on opening night, Carlos Delfino seems fairly locked in at the starting three spot. He had another solid effort on Friday (11 points on six shots, six boards), but his edge over Luc Mbah a Moute is mostly thanks to Skiles' preference for bringing Luc off the bench and Delfino's range providing more flexibility at the 4. No one expects Delfino to be a long-term solution, but right now the reality is that Skiles' forward group has a bunch of solid sixth men and nobody who's proven much beyond that.

Speaking of which, Hakim Warrick got his first start (an anonymous eight points and two boards in 26 minutes) at PF but don't expect to see him in the starting five on Friday in Philly. As Jeremy notes, Skiles likes Warrick's scoring off the bench and wants more toughness from his starting 4. Makes sense. Warrick's been a poor-to-mediocre rebounder for a PF his entire career, and Skiles presumably will feel better with Kurt Thomas defending Elton Brand in the opener.

It will be interesting to see how long that pecking order holds. Ersan Ilyasova performed nicely off the bench on Friday, scoring 16 on 10 shots along with five boards and a couple assists in 22 minutes--nearly the same numbers he put up in Charlotte. He hit a couple big triples as the Bucks tried to come back in the fourth, taking advantage of a disorganized Pistons defense for a number of good looks, while also keeping a few possessions alive with his hustle. While not as versatile or explosive in the scoring department as Charlie V, no one will be complaining if he can continue to punish sagging defenses (45.9% threes in preseason) and defend consistently. He still seems like the most natural fit against perimeter-based PFs, but Warrick should also figure in those situations.

Final Preseason Game: Pistons @ Bucks [Game Thread]

Packey — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 20:56:36 -0000

NBA Preseason Game 8
	@
3-4 (0-2 away)		3-4 (2-0 home)
Bradley Center Bucks Blog: Brew Hoop
October 23, 2009 8:30 PM ET
TV: FSD Radio: 950 WWJ
Probable starters:
Rodney Stuckey	PG	Brandon Jennings
Richard Hamilton	SG	Michael Redd
Tayshaun Prince	SF	Carlos Delfino
Charlie Villanueva	PF	Kurt Thomas
Chris Wilcox	C	Andrew Bogut

Detroit will end their preseason with a the second of a back-to-back against the Milwaukee Bucks on Friday night.

The end of the preseason brings about somewhat of a bitter-sweet feeling. Of course, we're all excited for the regular season to start (and for all games to be viewable), but the Pistons definitely have work to do. It's unrealistic to believe they were going to work out all the kinks before the season, seeing as they are predominantly a brand new team. However, it wouldn't hurt to have a few more "dry runs" before results started to count in the standings.

Pistons played the Bucks in the second game of the preseason and really showed off their offense in a 113-104 victory at the Palace. The Bucks starting lineup is going to look different than the lineup we saw October 7th, with three different names taking the floor for tip off. Detroit will have two different names with Villanueva most likely starting at PF and Wilcox starting in the middle for Kwame Brown, who is listed as questionable with a sore left hand.

There is no word on the status of Ben Wallace for tonight. Ben Wallace is starting tonight. He had been seeing limited time in previous games, if any at all, because Coach Q saw no reason to push the older man in the preseason when his role could very well be set in stone. He did not play on Thursday night because he bumped knees with a teammate during practice this week.

Tonight's game will be aired on Fox Sports Detroit, so hopefully, some of you will come share your thoughts regarding tonight's game and the state of the team heading into the season opener on Wednesday night in Memphis. I plan on posting a thread for commenters to introduce themselves over the weekend/Monday, so be on the lookout for that if you're interested in being apart of this community, but need a little nudging to get your foot in the door.

Go Pistons!

Bucks Season Preview

Frank Madden — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 17:24:34 -0000

More photos » by Mike Roemer - AP

Could happier times finally be on the horizon?

Browse more photos »

Below you'll find our contribution to the annual season previews that the good folks at Celtics Blog have been hosting for the last couple years.

Last Year's Record: 34-48

Key Losses: Ramon Sessions, Richard Jefferson, Charlie Villanueva

Not-So-Key Losses: Keith Bogans, Malik Allen, Damon Jones

Key Additions: Brandon Jennings, Hakim Warrick, Ersan Ilyasova, Carlos Delfino, Kurt Thomas, Jodie Meeks

Not-So-Key Additions: Roko Ukic

Actual analysis and deep thoughts after the jump.

1. What Significant Moves were made during the off-season?

Where to begin?

The Bucks have had a penchant in recent years for turning over half their roster each summer--funny how mediocrity encourages that kind of thing--yet they managed to outdo themselves over the last few months, allowing their three "leading scorers" to depart through either free agency or trades and replacing them with a mixed bag of young talent and proven veterans--all on reasonable deals. With their cap number lurking dangerously close to the tax both this year and next, trading Richard Jefferson for what eventually amounted to Kurt Thomas, Carlos Delfino, Roko Ukic and salary flexibility was largely a necessity given Jefferson's deal greatly outpaced his productivity.

The real question is whether the Bucks actually took enough advantage of the flexibility provided by RJ's departure. While the Bucks' decision not to make a qualifying offer to Charlie Villanueva drew some quizzical looks, the truth was that Villanueva's inconsistent, defenseless style meant he was never in the Bucks long-term plans. Realistically, signing the productive Hakim Warrick for just $3 million and the return of Ersan Ilyasova on a three-year deal for just $7 million is likely to provide far more value to the Bucks than locking Villanueva into a long-term deal. The pair is likely to gather the lion's share of PF minutes this season, though it's also possible Kurt Thomas grabs minutes next to Andrew Bogut rather than simply backing him up.

But perhaps the most intriguing decision was to select Brandon Jennings as the effective replacement for Ramon Sessions. Sure, Jennings beats Sessions on sex appeal and "potential," but the odds of him being able to replace Sessions' productivity in the near term? Doubtful. Don't get me wrong, I'm excited to watch the youngster learn on the job, but there will be some seriously long nights as the kid figures out the NBA game (and how to make jumpshots). That's why Luke Ridnour--finally healthy and looking improved in the preseason--will probably get the starting nod on opening night. The tragedy is that the Bucks' inability to lock in Sessions earlier in the summer led them to effectively use their remaining dollars under the tax on Warrick, Delfino, and Ukic. If Sessions had signed a max MLE deal watching him leave would have been somewhat tolerable, but for four years and $16 million it's tougher to stomach. (Frank)

2. What are the team's biggest strengths?

Scott Skiles. Ethnic diversity.

And, um...scrappiness? OK, maybe I'm being redundant. It's actually pretty simple: the success of the 09/10 Bucks will be mostly dependent on their ability to take another step forward defensively and rebound the way they did in the first half of 09/10.

That doesn't mean they'll be boring. Skiles' teams have always relied on defense and rebounding to play at a fast pace, and that was the formula we began to see a year ago. Before Michael Redd and Andrew Bogut were lost to season-ending injuries, the Bucks were a top five rebounding team and top ten defensively--no small feat for a franchise that had finished in the lower half of the league's defensive efficiency rankings every year since 1991. Leading that effort is '08 second rounder Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, who will compete with Delfino for the starting SF spot and will regularly draw the task of guarding the opponent's best wing scorer.

While they ended up middle-of-the-pack in both rebounding and defensive efficiency, they forced more turnovers than any other team in the league and should be even better now that they've added the ballhawking Jennings, don't have Villanueva getting minutes at PF, and will (hopefully) have Bogut back full-time in the middle. In other words, the Bucks will win by minimizing opponent opportunities (by forcing turnovers and not giving up second chances) and pushing the pace the other way. (Frank)

3. What are the team's biggest weaknesses?

Losing Jefferson, Sessions, and Villanueva necessarily leaves the cupboard rather bare offensively, but those losses will be blunted by the return of Redd and Bogut. Still, don't expect the Bucks to win any shootouts, as they're short on guys who can create their own shot and only Redd and Warrick have shown any ability to get to the line consistently.

More generally, the Bucks simply don't have clear-cut NBA starters aside from Redd and Bogut. There's no shortage of athletes or quality role players, but having the best roster from 11-15 doesn't get you all that much--and it's generally pretty pointless to being pay a few vaguely capable guys to wear street clothes each night. So while there's been lots of talk by the Bucks about being three-deep at every position, that's largely just distracting from the lack of proven quality at most positions. Skiles has admitted the rotation is something of a free-for-all at the moment, with virtually everyone on the roster capable of getting rotation minutes at some point this season. But would that be true if the Bucks had more established players at the point and forward spots? No.

With Bogut back and Villanueva gone, the Bucks also will hope to shore up their porous interior defense. As part of that, the Bucks led the league in fouls a year ago and early indications from the preseason are that not much has changed on that front, though Bogut has played sparingly as well. Bogut has improved steadily over the years in that department, and Kurt Thomas immediately provides a big boost as well. (Frank)

4. What are the goals for this team?

Media, fans, players--certainly they all have different ideas, though all can agree that after five straight last-place finishes in the Central, escaping the division basement would provide a long overdue baby step in the right direction and toward respectability. If that doesn’t happen, well, don’t count the national media among those surprised: they have lower expectations for Milwaukee this year than their usual, remarkably low expectations. Most who follow the team closely however probably peg the Bucks as a similarly capable side to last year. The offseason headlines naturally tilt toward the big names lost or dealt away, but if the team’s two most important chips (Redd and Bogut) return to health, the Bucks should be a mildly competitive team.

So, what should Redd and Bogut aim for, realistically? They are mainstays on these last-place finishers, but the last time either played 80 games, they both did--and the Bucks won 40 games and made the playoffs (2005-06). The chances the Bucks do the same this year are probably the same as the odds Redd and Bogut both stay on the floor without a scrape. Likely? No. Possible? Possible. (Alex)

Projected Finish: 34-48. We're projecting the same record as a year ago for a reason. While the losses of Sessions and Jefferson leave a void at two key positions, don't underestimate the impact of having Redd and Bogut healthy again. Bogut in particular has a chance to prove he's worth the $60 million contract he inked two summers ago, as he'll get every chance to be a bigger factor offensively in addition to his usual role of anchoring the defense. If he can't score 15+ ppg it will only further exacerbate the Bucks' lack of scoring depth.

Moreover, the Bucks' bench is deeper and should offset some of the uncertainty surrounding the starting forward and point guard positions. There's certainly enough upside to contend for one of the final playoff spots, but it will require the health (and productivity) of the big names, Skiles to again get the most out of his team defensively, and at least a couple of the young players--Ilyasova, Jennings, and Mbah a Moute primarily--to make an impact. Given the Bucks never seem to get everything to go their way, we won't hold our breath.

Poll

How many games do the Bucks win in 09/10?

Less than 20

16 votes

20-25

32 votes

26-30

63 votes

31-35

105 votes

36-40

186 votes

41-45

127 votes

46-50

21 votes

50+

27 votes

577 votes | Poll has closed

Recap: Bucks 98, Bulls 86

Frank Madden — Sun, 11 Oct 2009 06:27:12 -0000

Box Score / Recap

I finally had the pleasuring of seeing part of a Bucks preseason game tonight--albeit a webcam of a television showing the Bulls' WGN broadcast--but it was definitely better than nothing. Fortunately we've also got another package of highlights from Jim Paschke and the Bucks.com crew above.

First off: Andrew Bogut. My how we've missed you. Though the Bucks' first win of the preseason had as much to do with the Bulls' poor play (and lack of Derrick Rose) as anything else, there were some very promising signs from the Bucks' starting unit, notably Bogut. The big man scored 12 along five rebounds in 18 minutes, his longest outing of the preseason thus far, and looked pretty frisky in dropping a couple of hooks, a powerful right hander and even a jump shot on the unsuspecting Joakim Noah. Getting back up to speed has been a process for Bogut, but the process is going pretty well. Knock on wood.

Aside from that, it was a balanced effort befitting of an early preseason game. Luke Ridnour was again efficient in limited minutes while Brandon Jennings was lively but too content to pitch wayward mid-range jumpers (3/12 fg, 6 pts). Kurt Thomas brought his lunchpail to the starting five, deliver five rebounds and six points in 16 minutes. Scott Skiles wanted a better rebounding effort and Thomas helped him get it, as the Bucks won the battle of he boards for the first time in three games. Hakim Warrick also continued to produce, dropping 13/8 in 27 minutes.

Ersan Ilyasova meanwhile got his first rebounds of the preseason (yay!) but wasn't as productive. He buried a couple threes and continues to show a nice ability to pass the ball, but 8/4/3 in 22 minutes probably isn't good enough to lock up the starting PF spot. Keep working, Ersan, you'll get it.

Carlos Delfino also didn't hurt his cause in his first start, though we do know that he won't be starting on opening night--word came down before the game that he will be suspended for the opener as a result of his skirmish with Austin Daye on Wednesday. I'll be happy with Delfino so long as he defends respectably and buries threes, both of which he accomplished tonight. He made 3/5 threes en route to 12 points in 27 minutes, while also helping limit John Salmons and Luol Deng to a combined 4/17 shooting night.

San Antonio Spurs Season Preview

Wayne Vore (ATS) — Sat, 10 Oct 2009 18:08:26 -0000

I know what you are thinking. Why today, ATS? Why today for a team preview when the preseason has just started? Well, today is my day. As part of blogger preview organized by Jeff at CelticsBlog, I've got the Spurs on Saturday, October 10th. So let's get down to it.

With the Spurs offseason acquisitions putting them well into luxury tax land for the first time, there is only one sufficient outcome to this season. Winning it all. Will they do it? Let's take a look.

Front court

The front court is where the Spurs have the most significant changes. I'm considering small forwards to be part of the back court. This may sound strange to non-Spurs people, but the Spurs use their 2's and 3's interchangeably. Roger Mason, Manu Ginobili, and Michael Finley are just as likely to be on the court as a shooting guard as they are as a small forward.

The Spurs have seven players on the roster for the two front court positions. Of those seven players, two played in a game for the Spurs last season: Tim Duncan and Matt Bonner. The Spurs added Antonio McDyess, Theo Ratliff, and Marcus Haislip in free agency. They picked up DeJuan Blair in the draft. Ian Mahinmi missed the season with an injury and has played about 23 total minutes in his NBA career. Those five guys will be replacing the contributions of Kurt Thomas and Fabricio Oberto. With so many people around, minutes are going to be hard to come by. I expect Tim's minutes to be down, but not by much. Expect stiff competition for playing time in the Spurs front court this year. AND, a really big and, that stiff competition presupposes that Popovich doesn't play small ball with either Finley or Jefferson at the 4.

Backcourt

Richard Jefferson is the big new name. Bruce Bowen is now in retirement. Ime Udoka and Jacque Vaughn were not resigned. The Spurs just recently signed Keith Bogans. With the holdovers from last year and the signing of Malik Hairston this summer, the Spurs back court now consists of: Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili, Richard Jefferson George Hill, Roger Mason, Michael Finley, Keith Bogans, Marcus Williams, and Malik Hairston. Yes, that is 16 players on the roster. Williams and Hairston are both on unguaranteed contracts and one of them won't be on the team. Still, that's a lot of depth. How deep?

Well, George Hill IS the backup point guard. He and Tony will get all the point guard minutes this year. Manu and Jefferson will get the bulk of the minutes (I'm calling over half "the bulk") at the 2 and the 3. That leaves about 40 minutes per game for Finley, Bogans, and Mason with the winner of the Williams/Hairston battle getting nothing.

Offense

The end of the Bruce Bowen era and the addition of Richard Jefferson gives the Spurs a completely different look on offense. We no longer have a player the opposition can ignore on defense. That's not quite true. Teams couldn't ignore Bruce because he could bury that corner three. However, they could hide their worst defensive player very easily. You just had to be warm to be able to guard Bruce. Gone are the days where Steve Nash would spend his game covering Bruce. Now, he gets Richard Jefferson? I don't think so. The offensive balance and ability to attack mismatches will be something new for Spurs fans. We might see some different looks this year and a reduced role for Tim.

In his media day interview, Manu flat-out said Tony Parker is the offensive leader of the team. I don't think this year's Spurs will be running nearly as much offense through Tim in the low blocks. We had been moving away from Tim in the last few years, but I expect him to be much less of a focus this year. I think Tim will be getting the ball a lot more on the move and in the high post than as a set play down in the blocks.

The last couple years the Spurs have lived and died by their 3-point shooting. When they were on, they were hard to beat. When they were off, they couldn't win. Michael Finley, Roger Mason, Bruce Bowen, and Matt Bonner are all spot shooters. We routinely had at least two of them on the court at one time. Add in a Kurt Thomas and Fabricio Oberto, who doesn't really shoot at all, and the Spurs played large chunks of games with three guys on the court who specialized in standing still and shooting.

This year, I think the Spurs will be able to be more consistent scoring the ball and less reliant on 3-point shooting. I'd like to think the additions of Jefferson and McDyess as guys who can put the ball in the hole will keep teams from forcing the ball out of the hands of our stars and putting it in the hands of one dimensional shooters.

Oh, and having Manu back healthy will be a huge lift on the offensive end. His ability to drive and create for his teammates IS what he brings to the team. This team will be good offensively. In fact, I think they will be one of the most efficient offensive teams in the league.

Defense

Defensively is where I have the biggest question mark for the team. Last year was a huge step back in team defense for the Spurs. Perenially one of the best defensive teams in the league, the Spurs in '09 were nothing but ordinary. Will the addition of Jefferson and a longer, stronger, defensive focused front court players turn that around? I'm not sure. I hope so, but this is the one thing the team will have to prove on the floor this year.

The additions of McDyess and Ratliff give the Spurs some extra rebounding and shot blocking ability. Shot blocking, or even shot challenging, was something we didn't get last year out of Thomas, Oberto, and Bonner. The addition of Jefferson adds some size and athleticism on the wing.

Last year, the Spurs didn't make teams uncomfortable. They played smart, position defense. If a team could hit the jumper, we were content to let them take it. Hopefully, this year, we can start making teams uncomfortable again.

Athleticism, Length, and Energy

Where I hope we see the biggest improvement in the team is in the intangibles. The new roster changes infuse the team with desperately needed athleticism, length, and energy. The additions of Jefferson, Ratliff, McDyess, and Blair; and the emergence of George Hill, should help the Spurs with all the smaller things we didn't do well last year. A team that scraps for offensive rebounds. A team that tips rebounds. A team that challenges shots in the paint. A team that collects loose balls. A team that creates turnovers. A team that gets some easy baskets. A team that can win a game against a good team without playing a perfect game.

The Spurs will be good this year. They will be very good this year. But, they will need to be great. Will we see greatness? That is the question to be answered and I really like our chances.

Game Thread: Bulls/Bucks

Frank Madden — Sat, 10 Oct 2009 16:54:31 -0000

2-0		0-2
	vs.
October 10, 2009 - 7:30 PM CT
Resch Center, Green Bay
TV: WGN Local (nothing in Milwaukee) Radio: 1250 WSSP
Probable starters:
Jannero Pargo	PG	Luke Ridnour
Kirk Hinrich	SG	Michael Redd
Luol Deng	SF	Carlos Delfino
Taj Gibson	PF	Kurt Thomas
Joakim Noah	C	Andrew Bogut

Notes and links after the jump...

Preseason MVP: Jim Paschke
Jim's videos on Bucks.com are the only reason we've been able to see any video of the preseason, so for that we owe him a big thanks.

Gardner: Delfino and Thomas to start on Saturday
Charles Gardner reports that Skiles will be changing up his forward rotation on Saturday. We knew Delfino would get a look at the small forward spot at some point, but the more interesting choice is Kurt Thomas at PF.

"He's in the right place all the time defensively, and he's a conscientious box-out guy," Skiles said of the 6-foot-9 Thomas. "We've been getting killed on the boards. We'd like to present a little tougher front to start a game."

Rebounding is what Ersan Ilyasova should be bringing, but so far he hasn't grabbed a single board in 36 minutes. Of course, Ilyasova's not a bruising postdefender either way, so if Skiles decides to take a game-by-game approach to the 4 spot then we could see Thomas starting at times even if Ilyasova comes around. I'm not a big fan of that strategy, mainly because I'd rather see Thomas soaking up the backup PF minutes but also because I'd hope to see Ilyasova create mismatches on the perimeter against bigger players.

As for Hakim Warrick, he's played well (by the box score at least) in the first two games, but I'm not sure he can start every night. He's not big enough to defend good post players and he can't stretch the floor either. And on the plus side, his offense could be more useful off the bench with the second unit.

JS: Bucks rotation still up for grabs
Garry Howard takes stock of all the confusion surrounding who's going to play where and how much. Scott Skiles isn't tipping his hand, but he's obviously still trying to figure things out himself.

"I could see a 14- or 15-man rotation," he said. "Everybody is going to have to do something as the year goes on. I don't think there's any doubt about that. In an ideal world, we'd have a bunch of guys playing very well and would have a nine- or 10-man rotation and we'd be winning games. But my instinct is - and not that it means we won't be winning - is that everybody is going to get a chance at some point. We're going to need everybody.
"As the season goes on I'd like to have some sort of rotation but I'll bet you that everybody comes into play at some point."

Tribune: No Rose?
Derrick Rose (sore Achilles) missed the Bulls' 102-101 win over the Jazz in London, and is not expected to play tonight either. Would have been interesting to see Rose matchup with Jennings, but we should see plenty of that in the regular season.