SB Nation - Aaron Gray

Who are the Bulls camp free agents, and should we care?

your friendly BullsBlogger — Mon, 05 Oct 2009 23:53:14 -0000

With the Bulls going into camp with only 13 guaranteed contracts (as did most NBA teams, though none quite as profitable), and with a few minor injuries already popping up, the unsigned FAs on the roster may be more important than originally planned.

And 'important' could merely mean 'get through these mandatory preseason games', though with Aaron Gray out for 6 weeks, and Lindsey Hunter really only signed to be a high-paid assistant, someone could actually make the team.

SBNation brother site Ridiculous Upside recently went over the Bulls camp-invitees, so here is some more background on each:

Derrick Byars - Byars got a full-length profile earlier this offseason, so I'll just touch on a few highlights: he was a very smart and skilled college player, but since then has mostly spent time in Europe and the D-League in addition to getting a few preseason NBA looks. He doesn't rebound or get to the free-throw line consistently, and he's not the quickest guy, but he can definitely score and he's a decent passer for a swingman, and he generally makes smart decisions. Byars averaged just under 17 points per 36 minutes in Bakersfield last year, and he shot just over 38 percent on three-pointers. He also does a pretty good job of staying out of foul trouble. I think Chicago would do well to sign Byars, in part because Luol Deng's health is still somewhat tenuous, and because he would give them another bench scoring option on nights when Jannero Pargo's shot isn't falling. I'm not confident that will happen, and Byars isn't really the type of guy you bring in when you're trying to emphasize defense (though what team isn't at this time of year), but I think it would be a solid fit.

Chris Richard - I tend to get him confused with Chris Hunter, but Chris Richard injured his back last year and was released by Tulsa before the all-star break. He was solid if unspectacular when he played, though, averaging about 14 points and nine and a half rebounds per 36 minutes. Those numbers are an improvement on what he did in the NBA after being drafted by Minnesota in 2007, where he averaged six points and just under nine rebounds. His eFG and TS percentages have both improved as well, so while he's not a world-beater, he'd be a solid bench option at power forward for an NBA team. Provided his body can handle it, of course.

Both Byars and Richard played significant time in the preseason opener, and while Byars looked a bit better, I wouldn't be surprised if Richard is the one (and only one) the Bulls keep due to his size. Even after the rise of Taj (sigh), it's likely the Bulls feel the need for frontcourt emergency depth with Gray sidelined, James fat, and Miller always prone to miss games here and there.

I also wouldn't mind seeing Byars given a shot to out-play Pargo (not to try to read too much into the preseason game, I just truly think Pargo is replacement-level) for a spot at the fringe of the rotation, but with the Bulls nearly $1m from the luxury tax line, they'll likely sign only one of the two, if none. And while spots 12-15 are not that significant, with the Bulls insistent on not paying the tax and having a lot of dead (if expiring) money already on the books, I wonder if they're regretting their summer signings (or at least the terms) of Gray, Hunter, and Pargo.

A Look at the Orlando Magic's Last-String Power Forward/Center Options

Ben Q Rock — Tue, 18 Aug 2009 12:00:11 -0000

More photos » by George Frey - AP

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Not so long ago, I took a look at potential free-agent point guards whom the Orlando Magic could sign to fill out their bench. Team GM Otis Smith has made it clear that point guard is his highest priority; he's also made it clear that he'd also like to add another big man to the roster. With no movement on the point guard front--except the rumor that Smith is still pursuing restricted free agent C.J. Watson via a sign-and-trade with Golden State--it's high time we look at potential power forwards and centers Orlando could probably sign on the cheap.

The operative word is "cheap." As we've noted previously, the Magic are over the salary cap and have used both the mid-level and bi-annual exceptions, meaning they can only sign players to minimum contracts. NBA experience determines the specific finances of said deals, about which you can read here.

Unfortunately for the Magic, the best minimum-salary bigs have already signed. Joe Smith spurned the Cleveland Cavaliers to latch on with the Atlanta Hawks, while Rasho Nesterovic has re-upped with the Toronto Raptors after a one-year detour with the Indiana Pacers and, in arguably the best signing of the summer, the Cavs landed the productive-but-injury-hobbled power forward Leon Powe. Thus, there are few standouts on this list. Bear in mind that whomever Orlando chooses will be last on the depth chart, behind two All-Stars (Dwight Howard and Rashard Lewis), two youngsters combining to earn nearly $10 million this season (Marcin Gortat and Brandon Bass), and the second-year player whom the team views as a long-term building block (Ryan Anderson). In short, the Magic's mystery signee will hardly play, so he need not be exceptional.

After the jump, brief breakdowns of no fewer than 17 free-agent power forwards and centers who are still on the market.

And, as with the point guard piece, I've excluded D-Leaguers, because Smith has never made a D-League call-up in his tenure as Orlando's GM.

Calvin Booth:

The Good: Booth has parlayed his exceptional shot-blocking skills into a 10-year career in which he's earned nearly $36 million. He still has the touch, averaging a block per every 13 minutes played over his last two seasons, which he's split between Philadelphia, Minnesota, and Sacramento. And he'd undoubtedly accept a minimum contract.
The Bad: Just about everything else. He's not much of a scorer or rebounder, and one wonders if he'll even sign in the NBA this year as teams plan to carry fewer players due to the weak economy.
The Verdict: In spite of everything, he's hardly the worst name on this list, which should keep him in the conversation.

Head back to the top.

Jarron Collins:

The Good: Regarded as a stout, heady defender--just like his twin brother, whom we'll discuss shortly--Jarron Collins has carved out a respectable 8-year career despite having no discernible offensive skills. The contributions that have kept him in the league this long must go beyond the box score, since his per-game stats (4.3 points, 3.1 boards, 0.2 blocks in 16.9 minutes) are far from exceptional.
The Bad: As with most of the guys on this list, Jarron Collins is a zero on offense.
The Verdict: Think of Jarron as a younger version of Adonal Foyle, minus the rebounding and shot-blocking. In other words, think of him as Adonal Foyle, minus the skills that have kept him in the league.

Head back to the top.

Jason Collins:

The Good: Jason's career has eerily mirrored that of his brother but he enjoys a higher profile due to his presence on the New Jersey Nets' Eastern Conference Championship-winning teams in 2001/2002 and 2002/2003.
The Bad: Statistically speaking, he's worse than Jarron, in spite of his higher profile. Despite hardly straying more than 10 feet from the immediate basket area on offense, he's a career 41% shooter (Jarron's more efficient, but still unacceptable, with a career 45.9% mark from the field) . For some perspective, two years ago, Rashard Lewis shot 40.9%...from three-point range. "Awful" really doesn't begin to describe Jason's offensive ability.
The Verdict: Unless his great reputation somehow precedes him, it's hard to imagine Jason Collins playing in the NBA this season. Jarron is the better option of the two.

Head back to the top.

Melvin Ely:

The Good: If nothing else, Ely's built like a semi truck. Listed at 6'10" and 260 pounds, but likely heavier, Ely can take up space in the paint.
The Bad: But in all likelihood, when he's in there offensively, he's not doing much good. Discounting dunks and tip-ins, Ely converted just 31.3% of his shots in the immediate basket area last season. You'd almost prefer him to step out and take a jumper, which he's willing to do. 82games classifies nearly one-third of Ely's shots last season, as jumpers, which he converted at a 33.3% clip.
The Verdict: Maybe the Magic could live with Ely's considerable offensive shortcomings if he could at least rebound, but even then he's mediocre, with a career rebound rate of 11.7%, which puts him in Brian Cook (11.2% career) territory. He's a poor all-around player who hardly cracked New Orleans' rotation last season, despite their dearth of frontcourt talent. With all that said, Smith tried to acquire Ely from Charlotte at the 2007 trading deadline, so we at least know he was on Smith's radar at one point. For Orlando's purposes, it's probably best if he isn't.

Head back to the top.

Adonal Foyle:

The Good: Say what you will about his poor hands and finishing ability, but Foyle's still a tremendous defender, rebounder, and shot-blocker. I stumbled all over myself in order to praise Foyle after his first appearance last season, in which coach Stan Van Gundy called upon him to defend Yao Ming. Foyle responded with 4 points, 7 boards, and 3 blocked shots against the NBA's most offensively skilled center, in relief of the foul-maligned Howard. And, on the non-basketball side of the equation, Foyle's a great guy to have in the locker room, and as someone who eschews stories about athletes' intangibles, that's not something to take lightly
The Bad: Outside of the occasional put-back attempt, all Foyle can do on offense is set screens and box out.
The Verdict: Whichever team signs Foyle--if he's even in the league at all--will get some bang for its buck. He's worth the money for his locker-room wisdom--not a vocal leader, but more of a quiet, willing, mentor--alone. The fact that the Magic re-signed him last season solely to be a sparring partner for Howard during practices attests to his "intangible" value, and all told, he's in the upper tier of players on this list.

Head back to the top.

Aaron Gray:

The Good: In two seasons with Chicago--which owns his restricted free-agent rights, giving it the ability to match any offer another team makes for his services--the 24-year-old Gray has shown flashes of being a solid, rotation-caliber player. Consider, for instance, his career per-36-minute averages of 12.4 points and 10.5 boards. Not bad for a second-round draft pick, and arguably better than another second-rounder from the 2007 draft class who recently signed for $3 million annually.
The Bad: He's noted for his utter lack of athleticism and speed, and the Bulls would likely match a minimum-salary offer, meaning the Magic would have to obtain him in a sign-and-trade deal.
The Verdict: Physical limitations aside, Gray has decent low-post, back-to-the-basket scoring instincts, and would be worth a long-term investment were it not for the more than $100 million Orlando has tied up in Howard and Gortat over the next several seasons. If he can be had cheaply, he might be the best fit for Orlando of any player listed here. That possibility seems very remote, however.

Head back to the top.

Juwan Howard:

The Good: The opposite of Gray in many respects, as a been-there, done-that veteran. He's lasted quite awhile, hasn't he? Howard, at age 35, appeared in 42 games last season, no doubt surprising countless television viewers who assumed he'd been out of basketball for quite some time. Last season, his 15th in the league, he set a new career-high by shooting 51% from the field. And he's earned a reputation as a good locker-room presence
The Bad: If the Magic want rebounding from their end-of-the-bench big man--and why wouldn't they?--they aren't going to find it with Howard, whose total rebound rate of 9.9 last season puts him in (here comes that phrase again!) Brian Cook territory.
The Verdict: My guess is that he doesn't have much of anything else to contribute at the NBA level. He's probably not a markedly better option for Orlando than, say, either of the Collins twins.

Head back to the top.

Othello Hunter:

The Good: In extremely limited minutes for the Atlanta Hawks last season--92, to be precise--Hunter posted encouraging numbers. 8.6 points per 36 minutes isn't great, but the 9.4 boards and 15.3% rebounding rate? That's encouraging. And at 23, there's potential for long-term development.
The Bad: He's listed at just 6'08" and 225 pounds, making him a less-than-ideal size for the position. Plus, the Hawks didn't think highly enough of him to play him very often, although that might be more of an indictment of coach Mike Woodson's ability to manage players than it is of Hunter's skills.
The Verdict: Based on the small sample size, Hunter appears to be worth at least a training-camp invitation; I'd stay away from offering him a guaranteed deal until he shows what he's got in the preseason. He might stand to earn more money overseas, but at the same time, he might not want to give up on the NBA just yet. Put him at or around the top of the list, for now.

Head back to the top.

Sean Marks

The Good: Based on what I've seen, there aren't many scrappier players in the NBA. Marks is a decent rebounder (13% rebound rate) and an average shot-blocker (1.4 blocks/36 career) who plays hard. 110% and all that.
The Bad: Utterly anemic offensively, with a career 44.9% mark from the field, although he's a combined 49.5% in his last two seasons. All the hustle in the world can't put the ball in the basket.
The Verdict: He's one of the main reasons the Hornets traded for Emeka Okafor and signed Ike Diogu this summer, as Marks just doesn't belong in a contender's rotation. But in Orlando, as the 6th big man, he wouldn't be in the rotation. Not a great option, but certainly not the worst, either.

Head back to the top.

Mikki Moore:

The Good: He's only 2 years removed from averaging 8.5 points and 6 rebounds per game with Sacramento, with a respectable Player Efficiency Rating of 11.5.
The Bad: Last year, the Boston Celtics signed Moore after the Kings bought him out, hoping he'd approximate the contributions P.J. Brown made to their championship team in 2008. Predictably, it didn't work out. Moore plays hard and means well, but was so utterly lost defensively in Boston that coach Doc Rivers couldn't count on him when the games mattered more. Indeed, Moore played only 66 minutes in the postseason, while Brian Scalabrine--Brian Scalabrine!--played 246. If that's not a strike against Moore, I'm not sure what is.
The Verdict: As a sixth big man--as opposed to the third in injury-riddled Boston--Moore isn't such a bad option. And he'd actually have a fair amount of time to learn Van Gundy's defensive rotations, as opposed to last year, when he had to take a crash-course in Boston's plans. He wouldn't be a bad pickup, but certainly wouldn't be a great one, either.

Head back to the top.

Johan Petro:

The Good: His rebounding and blocked-shots statistics compare favorably to Marks', and he's 10 years younger to boot.
The Bad: His offense, though, is also similar to Marks. Worse, it's on the decline. In his first two seasons, he shot a combined 51.4% from the field. In his last two? 41.8%, a staggering drop-off due to his over-reliance on an iffy jumper. Yikes. Now the Magic wouldn't ask him--or anyone on this list, really--to create any offense for himself. But you'd nonetheless like whomever they sign to be able to bang an open jumper every now and again, as Tony Battie did last year, and as Brandon Bass will do (much more effectively) this year.
The Verdict: I'm lukewarm on Petro, which makes him better than almost everyone on this list. Of the young players, he seems the most likely to be available for the minimum.

Head back to the top.

Malik Rose:

The Good: Rose would bring championship experience to Orlando, as he won titles with the San Antonio Spurs in both 1999 and 2003. These weren't cheap rings for Rose, as he averaged 12.9 minutes per game in '99 and 24.5 in '03.
The Bad: Did the absence of any skills analysis in the last paragraph tip my hand? Rose doesn't have anything in the tank anymore, it appears. His Player Efficiency Ratings in the last three years are in the single-digits, and his rebounding rates have dipped into the 11-and-12 range. He never was an offensive stalwart, having never shot better than 47.7% from the field in any of his 13 professional seasons, and he hasn't so much as cracked 40% in any of his last 4 seasons.
The Verdict: Rose has enjoyed a decent career by most metrics, but his skills have diminished too sharply to justify granting him a roster spot.

Head back to the top.

James Singleton:

The Good: The 28-year-old James is coming off a career season with the Dallas Mavericks, averaging 5.1 points per game, in just 14.9 minutes, while shooting 52.9% from the floor. His ability to finish inside boosted his field-goal percentage, as he converted a stellar 71.4% of his shots in the immediate basket area in 2008/2009. For comparison's sake, consider that Dwight Howard shot 62.2% and Marcin Gortat shot 63.4% in the same situations.
The Bad: First, there's the question of how much Hall-of-Fame point guard Jason Kidd inflated Singleton's stats; they'd almost certainly return to Earth in Orlando, even potentially playing alongside All-Star point guard Jameer Nelson. Second, there's probably no way Dallas wouldn't match a minimum contract offer for his services, as he is a restricted free agent, and owner Mark Cuban is a freakin' billionaire (the Magic's decision to match his offer to Gortat doesn't figure into this analysis, because Cuban would match a minimum offer to Singleton regardless of the team that extended it). Finally, he's more of a combo forward than a true big man, although he still played roughly 80% of his minutes at power forward last season.
The Verdict: If the Magic can somehow find a way to grab him, their fans wouldn't have much reason to complain. He'd be worth it, even when one accounts for the statistical decline in his play without Kidd. Let me put it this way: the Magic's chances of signing him are so infinitesimally remote that he's hardly worth considering, but I included him in this post anyway because he was, frankly, just that impressive last season.

Head back to the top.

Brian Skinner:

The Good: One can take or leave Skinner's rebounding--15.1% career rate, 13.9% last year with the Clippers--but that block rate (3.6% career, 4.6% last year and 6.0% the year before) deserves some attention. Skinner is perhaps the quintessential, defensive-minded, end-of-the-bench big man. His overall statistics last year suggest that, even at 33, he's an NBA-caliber player.
The Bad: In the tradition of many mediocre NBA bigs, he tends to shoot a lot of jumpers at a low percentage.

Also, this goatee.
The Verdict: Skinner, it seems to me, is the sort of emergency big man who's not going to greatly aid his team's cause when he's on the floor... but he's not going to hurt it, either. That's about all you can ask from a sixth big man, which is why I endorse Skinner more strongly than I do any of the other veterans on this list, save for Foyle.

Head back to the top.

Stromile Swift:

The Good: He has a bad reputation for never living up to his potential--he was the second overall pick of the 1999 draft--but he's actually carved out a decent career. In 2003/04, under the tutelage of Hubie Brown, he posted a Player Efficiency Rating of 19.7, for instance, and his career PER is an above-average 16.7. So he's not as bad a player as some people might expect due to the negativity surrounding him, which stems from his high draft position.
The Bad: Sadly, Swift's mother passed away in February, which (obviously) upset him very much. He was "inconsolable," according to his agent, and a week later, the Nets waived him after his agent talked things over with GM Kiki Vandeweghe. He signed with Phoenix--where he played with Magic free-agent signee Matt Barnes, who also lost his mother recently--but did not contribute much. In short, it's been a tough year for Swift, and concerns remain about his readiness to play basketball to the best of his (underrated) ability.
The Verdict: Orlando might be the ideal landing place for Swift, as he'd re-join former teammates Anderson, Barnes, and Vince Carter. He'd also play with Nelson, a team captain and leader, who dealt with the sudden and unexpected death of his father in 2007. In short, he'd be among friends. Of this we can be certain.

Whether Orlando has much use for him, though, is less sure. He's still a great athlete (this dunk is less than two years old!) and, as I mentioned, a somewhat underrated player. If Smith feels as though he can bank on Swift's readiness to contribute in an end-of-the-bench role, then he'd be a solid pickup. But if Swift isn't mentally "there" yet, the Magic shouldn't commit to him when there are other, better options who are ready.

Head back to the top.

Jake Voskuhl:

The Good: At 6'11" and 245 pounds, Voskuhl's a big boy. Yup, that's all I've got.
The Bad: Last year, in Toronto, he posted a PER of 0.4, shot 26.7% from the field, and committed a turnover on almost exactly one-quarter of his possessions used. He also committed one foul for every four minutes he played. He was so cosmically dreadful that Basketbawful coined the term "Voskuhl" for big men whose "combined fouls and turnovers exceed his combined points and rebounds over the course of a game."

And he was no great shakes prior to last season, either.
The Verdict: There's quite simply no compelling reason to believe Voskuhl merits an NBA roster spot at this point in his career.

Head back to the top.

Lorenzen Wright:

The Good: Pardon the echo chamber here, but at 6'11" and 225 pounds, Wright's a big boy..
The Bad: He's probably worse than Voskuhl, if you can believe it. Injuries have limited Wright to 36 games over the last two seasons, in which he's combined to shoot 16-of-48, or 33.3%. No NBA team is ever going to ask Wright to do anything on offense, but his other stats don't indicate he's worth having on the floor. He'll turn 34 in the first week of the season.
The Verdict: Yeah, his NBA days are probably finished. Orlando need not seriously consider Wright, but if there isn't anyone else on the board, they might have to settle for him.

Head back to the top.

A quick survey of the above players shows that only four (Foyle, Gray, Singleton, and Skinner) are near-locks to make an NBA roster this season, which sort of illustrates the talent pool with which we're dealing. Fortunately, the Magic won't require much of their last big man, which makes these choices sightly more attractive. Foyle and Skinner are the best realistic options, at least to me, and the only way Smith can go wrong here is by signing someone on the level of Voskuhl and Wright. In other words, don't get too down on the Magic if, say, Moore is the best they can get for the minimum salary.

Tony Allen: Waive, Work or Keep for Insurance?

tenaciousT — Sat, 15 Aug 2009 07:49:01 -0000

More photos » by Michael Perez - AP

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Tony has been rumored to be in every Celtic trade suggestion from Marquis Daniels to Sidney Wicks. At least in what has made print, Danny Ainge has offered Tony and Gabe Pruitt around the league like a waiter offers those last couple of hors d'oeuvres turned cold sitting on the plate in the middle of the party. ‘Care for one? They're really good.'

‘No thank you. I'll pass.'

Pruitt is gone. Tony is still here. Larry Bird was reported to not want Tony in a sign and trade for Daniels. Not because Tony can't play the game, but because of ‘off court distractions' that Bird has been working hard to distance his team from ever since he took over complete control of player personnel decisions from Donnie Walsh.

Many think the Tony Allen situation is already clear.

That's understandable. But there has been little direction from Celtic management on Tony Allen to this point. Many consider his off court issues to be the central problem from last season. It could be argued that the bigger issue was his health. He only played 46 games.

The year started with great promise.

NBA.com preseason report on October 11...

Update: Allen had 25 points in the Celtics' preseason win over the Cavs on Friday night.

Analysis: Allen may fill the sixth man role left by James Posey, especially if he can find his scoring touch.

Then this October 19 report from NBA.com....

Looking Strong in Preseason
Update: Allen had 32 points in three quarters during the Celtics' preseason game against New Jersey on Thursday, according to the Boston Herald.

Analysis: Allen seems like the current favorite for the sixth man role left by James Posey, and has shown an ability to score in bunches. His defensive issues, however, may end up reducing his playing time as the season continues.

November 23rd ....

Instant Offense off Bench
Update: Allen had 15 points and six rebounds in the Celtics' win over the Raptors on Sunday.

Analysis: Allen has now posted double-figure scoring in three straight games, and is averaging 20.6 points per 48 minutes.

December 2nd, the first shoe drops, rather, the ankle turns ...

Right Ankle Sprain
Update: Allen sprained his right ankle during Boston's victory over Orlando on Monday, the Boston Globe reports.

That was the start of the season long bugaboo to Tony's healthfulness. The whole string of setbacks (and dates) for the season are noted here. But to give you a taste:

The ankle continued to vex Tony all the way through January:

Re-injures ankle - Jan. 6
Could possibly play - Jan. 10
Out one more week - Jan. 13
Returns to practice, still recovering - Jan. 26

Then Tony played in just seven games before he got a severe thumb injury with ligament damage that required surgery on Feb 17.

Tony was out until April 3rd missing 23 straight games.

Allen came back to finish the season with 18 and 15 points on 13 of 25 shooting with 7 rebounds, 8 assists, and 4 steals in the final two regular season games.

Already out of the rotation and with recurring ankle problems, he played little in the post season.

On June 3rd, Tony...

Undergoes Ankle Surgery
Update: Allen had surgery on his right ankle and leg on Wednesday, the Associated Press reports.

Analysis: The Celtics expect Allen to recover in time for training camp. Allen was hampered by his faulty ankle for most of last season, averaging 7.8 points in 34 games.

That brings us to today.

What to do about Tony Allen?

When healthy, he can still play some productive ball. But he is 27. He will be 28 in January. The Celtics have given Tony many opportunities. Primarily, it is injuries that have taken down Tony's career. He has missed 128 games in 5 years. Only twice has he played more than 51 games. At some point, it doesn't matter how good the reasons are. A change of scenery might be a good thing for everyone involved.

As of today, August 15th, through the end of the regular season, a player clears waivers after just 48 hours.

Should Tony Allen be waived? Or worked?

If he is not in the Celtics plans, waiving him helps Tony. He would be free to find a place where he can get a real opportunity to restart his career. For the Celtics, it would clear a valuable roster spot for a player that could be in training camp from the get-go. But that would mean a buy out that still counts against the cap and additional money spent on another player when the Cs are deep in luxury tax territory.

I'm normally not in favor of such moves or of contract buy outs. But in this case, the amount is relatively small - $2.5 million. Total cost with tax - $5 mil. Vet minimum replacement - another $2-2.5 million with tax. Total cost - $7.5 million.

But....the other problem is that there are few good free agent options at small forward, the position of choice, available at minimum dollars.

Ime Udoka might bite. Rodney Carney will want more money.

Other positions?
How about a shooter likes Flip Murray, Juan Dixon, or Steve Novak. Keith Bogans, Desmond Mason and Rashad McCants are still out there. Perhaps an insurance center in Aaron Gray, a Collins brother or Jake Voskuhl? Are any of these options better than having Tony Allen available on your bench?

Neither Danny nor Doc has said that Tony won't play a role. If for no other reason than Marquis Daniels often averages about 60 games a season, Tony could be a valuable fill in for 20 games a year, assuming a similar 60 game season from Marquis.

That there has been a less than hoped for performance from Tony is acknowledged by all. Nagging injuries have played a central part in his being able to establish himself. When he is healthy, he can be a contributor.

I'm looking at this strictly from a Doc Rivers, Danny Ainge, and what-is-best-for-the-Celtics-and-Tony-Allen point of view.

At this point, Tony Allen's trade value is at a low point. With Marquis Daniels about to come aboard, and J.R. Giddens in house, what is Tony's role this coming season?

Right now the 15th roster spot is assumed to go to rookie Lester Hudson or another PG possibility. If Tony is no longer in the Celtics plans, the Celtics should waive Allen. Then they could bring another player. It helps both parties.

Do you think the Celtics should waive Tony, work him, or keep him for insurance?

Poll

What to do with Tony?

Waive him

780 votes

Keep as insurance

778 votes

Work him into the lineup

324 votes

1882 votes | Poll has closed

Ryan Hollins, pt. ii: defense

Stop-n-Pop — Thu, 13 Aug 2009 11:36:49 -0000

OK, I want each and every one of you to close your eyes and think back to last season. The Wolves are playing the Atlanta Hawks and Mike Bibby is bringing the ball up the floor. As he crosses the mid-court line he begins to angle to the left just as Al Horford pushes off from the low block and moves towards the right wing. At this point it becomes obvious to everyone in the entire building that the Hawks are going to run a screen-and-roll with Bibby and Horford. One would think that Horford's guardian, Big Al Jefferson, would be preparing himself to hedge on the screen or to pass off coverage in a switch or to even jump the whole damn thing in a trap with a relatively slow point guard like Bibby initiating the action. One would be thinking incorrectly.

Instead of any of these three options, we Wolves fans are all too aware of what happens next: Big Al meanders out in the general direction of the screen and flaps his arms in the direction of Horford as the big fella makes a dramatic cut to the basket the second he sees Big Al lollygagging out towards what would have been the point of attack.

Repeat this sort of ineptitude a couple hundred times throughout the season. Rinse. Repeat again.

Folks, there are no two ways about it: last season, the Wolves' front court displayed some of the most atrocious pick-and-roll defense I have ever witnessed. Between general indifference (Jefferson), rookie inexperience (Kevin Love), and role-playing levels of non-excellence (Mark Madsen + Brian Cardinal) the Wolves 100%, absolutely, completely, and terminally lacked a big man who could properly switch, hedge, or jump a pick-and-roll...which, funny, just happens to be the single most important play that makes the NBA go 'round.

Enter Mr. Ryan Hollins.

Do not get me wrong. Hollins is not the be-all/end-all of defensive pick-and-roll prowess. What he is is the only player on the Wolves' roster who a) has size and b) can move well enough to be an effective defensive big on the pick-and-roll. I think Love is a smart and savvy enough player to eventually master this sort of thing but Hollins gives the Wolves a 7-footer who can provide...ummm...what's the word (we Wolves fans haven't seen this sort of thing in quite a while)...defensive flexibility, albeit in short stretches and with something of a negative pull on the offensive end of the court.

Hollins is a remarkably agile big man. He can handle switches, hedges, and jumping the point of attack for a trap with enough athletic juice to recover to his proper spot in the lane. Again, I'll remind our readers that we're talking about a backup big who will be the 3rd or 4th front court player on the roster, but this is a skill that is foreign to the current roster. Hollins may not be the best athletic defensive big; he may foul a ton and rely on overly-aggressive plays on the ball, but the simple fact remains that he is the only forward or center on the current roster who can show on a screen and make his way back into position strictly on the basis of his physical gifts. This is a big thing. KG was the last player who was able to perform this sort of task with a Minnesota across his chest, and no, I'm not comparing the two players; rather, I'm simply saying that Hollins is athletic enough to do something no other big on the roster can do and that, by itself, means something.

Beyond physicality, there are some things that stand out about Hollins' defensive game:

(via the always-excellent Basketball Prospectus)

First of all, let us clearly state that we are dealing with Small Sample Size Theater (Brian Cardinal factored in about 290 more possessions than the Wolves' newest big). Secondly, the thing that most stands out about Hollins (in his very limited court time) is that he holds his opponents to production well below what they normally put up (dMULT). The kicker is that he plays against competition that is significantly less than NBA average (dQUAL). Let's take a quick look at his on/off numbers (via the wonderful 82Games.com)

Many stats are shown on a 'per 48 minute' basis

Stat	ON Court	OFF Court	Net
Minutes	260	3700	6%
Offense: Pts per 100 Poss.	106.2	111.8	-5.6
Defense: Pts per 100 Poss.	108.1	109.1	-1.0
Net Points per 100 Possessions	-1.9	+2.7	-4.6
Points Scored	513	7830	-7317
Points Allowed	532	7649	-7117
Net Points	-19	+181	-200

Here are his numbers from Charlotte:

Many stats are shown on a 'per 48 minute' basis

Stat	ON Court	OFF Court	Net
Minutes	184	3801	4%
Offense: Pts per 100 Poss.	111.9	105.5	+6.4
Defense: Pts per 100 Poss.	97.6	107.8	-10.1
Net Points per 100 Possessions	+14.3	-2.3	+16.5
Points Scored	376	7301	-6925
Points Allowed	336	7445	-7109
Net Points	+40	-144	+184

Please keep in mind that Hollins is a 10 mpg backup (and that we're talking about less than 500 minutes of floor time), but what we can see here is that he is a better performer on defense than he is on offense. This general sentiment is also played out in his adj +/-. As always, the kicker with +/- and on/off stats for guys like Hollins is that they often log minutes without all of the team's best players surrounding them. Does that mean something for the Wolves? We'll have to wait and see.

The bottom line with Hollins the defender is that he is an incredibly athletic and agile big who has the potential to defend the pick-and-roll, get back into position, trap, and provide some weak-side shot blocking help. He brings a skill set to the Wolves that simply did not exist on the roster before his acquisition. Love and Big Al are not athletic dynamos and they will never be able to do the things that Hollins is naturally capable of. That being said, we're still talking about a guy who will likely play under 20 mpg (my guess is 13-17 mpg) and who will put up most of his numbers against non-starting 5-man rotations. If Hollins can maintain his dMULT numbers, and if he can perform at or slightly above replacement-level, the Wolves will have made a fairly savvy move.

While this is cliche on several levels, at the end of the day, Hollins' performance will be measured by how much he hustles. There is no pressure on this guy to not foul. There is no pressure on this guy to make big shots. All he has to do is go out there and go 150 mph. I really don't know if this is his type of personality (it could be judging by what we saw in the playoffs) but he is going to be placed in a position where an up-tempo athletic game such as his should be rewarded on both ends of the court. If he can use his athleticism to be an effective defender on the p-n-r with Love or Big Al, he will immediately have found a good home, as both of these guys need the things that Hollins brings to the table.

All in all I'm pretty happy with this signing. While Hollins seems to be a fairly awful 1/2 court offensive player he does have some interesting potential when it comes to transition play and defense. In terms of improvement, he looks like he could bulk up a bit, hit the boards with more aggressiveness, and avoid as many jump shots as possible. Running, dunking, defending, and crashing the boards should be this guy's MO from day one. As for his contractual worth, frequent poster McCleak put it nicely in a recent comment thread with this little ditty:

Hollins had a Win Score last year of 1.0. If you look at centers with a WS between 0.5-1.5 (DeSagana Diop, Theo Ratliff, Aaron Gray, DeAndre Jordan, Kosta Koufos, Jamaal Magloire, Robin Lopez, Hollins, Spencer Hawes, Robert Swift, and Olekisy Pecherov)*, you see that they earned $19,420,831 last season, for an average of $1,618,402.58 per player. So it’s more than the average contract for a center of his caliber last season. However, if you limit it to people who have signed second contracts (Diop, Ratliff, Magloire), than you see a contract total of $7,180,162 or $2,393,387.33 per player. And that’s almost exactly what Hollins received.

The guy is being paid at (or very near to) market value and he has some potential within the style of ball the Wolves hope to play as well as the roster they are shaping up to have. For me, the biggest thing about this deal is that Hollins represents a player that a) cost the Wolves' front office a considerable amount of scouting and research and b) is about as far away from a McHale-type signing as could be imagined. This is a guy you take a swing on only after a significant amount of research and you do so to have him play in a fairly specific role. That has to be worth something by itself, right? It sure as hell beats Mark Blount. Would Kevin McHale have even known about Hollins? Did UCLA play an NCAA game at the Dome during Hollins' time in Westwood?

What say you ?

Hollins, pt. i: offense

Stop-n-Pop — Wed, 12 Aug 2009 11:00:23 -0000

More photos » by Jack Dempsey - AP

Browse more photos »

OK, now that we're back into the swing of things after a vacation I thought it would be a good idea to take a look at the newest Wolf: Ryan Hollins. Hollins is a 24 year old backup center with solid size, length, and athleticism. You can view his career numbers at Basketball Reference by clicking here. Before we start breaking down his game, I would like to make a few general points:

Ryan Hollins is a backup, is a backup, is a backup. We are talking about a guy who will likely get anywhere between 13-20 mpg. He will be playing a large chunk of his minutes against lineups and opponents that themselves perform below league averages. His dqual numbers from last season were .791 in Charlotte and .768 in Dallas. In other words, his opponents performed anywhere between 21 and 24 percent below league average. All he has to do is perform at a replacement-level against sub-par subs and the Wolves will have everything they need from the guy; anything extra will be gravy.
Hollins' player type is a necessary addition to a team running out a starting front court of Al Jefferson and Kevin Love. This team needs length and athleticism in a bad, bad way and Hollins' physical numbers fit this bill. That being said, it remains to be seen if he has the skills to supplement his size on the court. (BTW: I recently heard Dan Barreiro complaining about a "Wolves-related website" writing about Hollins being just what the team needed [along with a pair of long athletic wingmen] in order to get the ship back on the right track. That sounds suspiciously like something this website might have put out and I find it amazing that a talk show host who purportedly prides himself on nuance would make such a clumsy point about an argument no one is really making. There is quite a difference between player type and a player actually fitting that bill in terms of functional performance.)
Ultimately, Hollins' worth will be measured against his 3-year $7 mil contract. Hollins has made just over $1 mil in his career to this point. He is being paid on potential, as Dallas was unwilling to match the offer sheet and his net numbers don't exactly jump off the page.

Now that we have that out of the way, let's apply the first rule of player evaluation: who or what are we using as a bar for performance? In Hollins' case, I think the best place to start is to look at young backup (or limited-minute) centers who have played at or below the MLE or who were on the free agent market this off-season. Our peer group will consist of Shelden Williams, Marcin Gortat, Aaron Gray, Joakim Noah, JaVale McGee, and Chris Anderson. These players played between 10 and 24 mpg and none of them took more than 5.5 fg/game. I'm not saying that all of these players could have been available to the Wolves; rather, they represent a group of players that Hollins' future role will be weighed against. Let's take a look at how these players stack up in some key offensive areas in order to get a sense of how good they are, what they bring to the table, and how they play:

	2p%	Jump (att%/eFG)	Close (att%/eFG)	close blk	oreb%	fga/game	pts/play	ft/fg	draw foul
Williams	.452	(31/.333)	(51/.457)	29%	12.2%	4.5	0.86	21	11.7%
Gortat	.567	(24/.380)	(55/.644)	12%	11.9%	3.0	1.03	14	12.6%
Hollins	.525	(27/.188)	(29/.294)	59%	10.8%	2.2	0.89	29	19.2%
Gray	.488	(16/.296)	(72/.492)	16%	11.7%	3.0	0.84	20	13.9%
Noah	.558	(6/.227)	(53/.444)	23%	13.3%	4.6	1.0	33	18.6%
McGee	.494	(37/.264)	(37/.448)	10%	10.6%	5.2	0.93	28	18.4%
Anderson	.560	(25/.333)	(31/.544)	19%	11.8%	4.0	1.01	45	19.3%

I chose these numbers because limited-minute bigs need to be able to efficiently shoot from close range, grab offensive rebounds, and get to the line.

Before I go any further, let me take yet another opportunity to talk about just how much the Wolves could use Joakim Noah. I really hope Corey Brewer works out and that he fully recovers from his knee injury and I wish him the best in life but holy crap: wrong Gator. From size to rebounding to shot selection awareness to efficiency to an ability to draw fouls and get to the line when he does have the ball, Noah is the perfect fit next to Big Al and the Big Piranha. Anywho...

The first thing you will notice about Hollins is that he is a terrible, no-good, awful jump shooter who takes waaaayyyyyyy too many jump shots. Look at Noah: only 6% of his shots are jumpers. Why? He's a terrible jump shooter. The problem for Hollins is that he isn't much of a close-range shooter either, shooting a Bassy-esque .294 on close jumpers with a mind-bending 59% of them being blocked. This is a good ol' fashioned "WTF?!" sort of stat. Hopefully it is something of an outlier, as he was able to pull a .528 eFG in 07/08 with only 22% of them being blocked. We're also talking about a guy who took less than 3 shots a game so Small Sample Size Theater is somewhat in play. Ultimately, I guess we'll have to wait and see but it is definitely something to keep an eye on as I'm not really sure how a 7-footer with plus athleticism could have his shot blocked so frequently...even with so few attempts.

Where Hollins makes up for his poor shooting is with his frequent dunking. In 07/08, 23% of his shots were dunks. This past season that number shot up to 44% of his attempts. This is how a guy with sub .300 numbers on his jump shot can end up with a 2p% over .500. If there is anything in Hollins' offensive repertoire to get somewhat excited about, it is the thought of him eventually taking ally-oops from Jonny Flynn and (hopefully) Ricky Rubio. The guy can really get up and down the court and to the rim.

The only other big positive Hollins has on the offensive side of the court is his ability to get to the line. In the 07/08 season he ranked 4th among all centers in free throws per field goal attempt. This past season he averaged 29 ft/fg with the highest drawf% on our list.

Looking at the stat sheet it is pretty easy to see that Hollins is a fairly limited offensive player in a half court setting. There is really no way around his extremely poor jump shot numbers as well as his modest OReb%, ast-r, and ppr. However, the guy does have some things that make you perk up just a little bit: His dunk numbers, % of close shots and % of attempts within the first 10 seconds of the shot clock (51%) suggest that he can really get up and down the court and this is something that could be useful on a team that is apparently being built for such a style.

In comparison to his small peer group, Hollins is clearly never a guy that you'd want to choose for 1/2 court ball, rebounding, or shooting. His offensive value will largely be determined by the Wolves' ability to place him in situations where he clearly is more comfortable and able to produce. In other words, this guy had better not be given the green light to shoot a bunch of jump shots and he better hustle up and down the court. It would also be nice to see him up his offensive rebounding numbers, as a 7-footer with athleticism should be able to at least reach Aaron-Grayian heights.

In the next post we'll look at what Hollins brings to the table in terms of defense, overall efficiency, and how well he can hang on to the ball.

Liberty Links: Miller to Portland, C.J. Watson and Jamaal Tinsley

jsams — Fri, 24 Jul 2009 14:07:56 -0000

The Blazers are making Andre Miller an offer.

The Portland Trail Blazers are preparing to make Miller an offer, according to a Western Conference general manager who requested anonymity because his team was not involved in the discussions.

And the Sixers withdrew their offer.

A source familiar with the situation said the Sixers have withdrawn their 1-year offer to the veteran point guard.

Jasner says the Sixers still have interest in C.J. Watson.

[The Sixers] still have interest in Golden State Warriors restricted free agent C.J. Watson, but have been told Watson wants more than 1 year in an offer.

Just offer him two years please!

But unfortunately they also have interest in Jamaal "I shoot 39 percent and miss 20 games a year" Tinsley.

The Sixers are talking about 6-3 Jamaal Tinsley, who was released by Indiana on Wednesday after the sides agreed on a buyout. The Pacers sat the seven-year vet for the 2008-09 season because of disciplinary issues. He was connected with three late-night conflicts in a 14-month span.

And in more slightly depressing news, the Sixers look to fill out their roster with one of these big men:

The Sixers are looking at 7-foot-1 Primoz Brezec (Toronto), 7-0 Aaron Gray (Chicago), 7-0 Ryan Hollins (Dallas), 6-11 Jake Voskuhl (Toronto), 6-10 Adonis Foyle (Orlando) and 6-11 Jared Reiner.

How about Garret Siler instead? Out of these bigs, Ryan Hollins is my personal favorite.

Sunday Thought - The Cost of Waiting on Jack

RaptorsHQ - Franchise — Sun, 19 Jul 2009 14:10:22 -0000

More photos » by Chuck Burton - AP

Franchise hopes that waiting on Jack doesn't leave BC stuck with the likes of Magloire to fill out the roster...

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How bad did Bryan Colangelo really want Jarrett Jack?

Well considering the team still has a few days left before they find out if he's officially a Raptor or not, I'd say pretty bad.

Because while Toronto waits to see if the former Georgia Tech guard joins them for next season, it could be at the expense of other free agents.

As I commented yesterday, the Raptors plan A is obviously Jack, but they needed to have a plan B in place, even if they felt fairly confident that they'd be able to snag the former Pacer. One would think that plan B consisted of some combination of Carlos Delfino, Rasho Nesterovic and others but as the Raps wait on Jack, many of those "other" options look to be drying up.

This morning various sources were reporting that Chris Wilcox, a player I felt would be a good addition to the Dinos for little salary, had agreed to sign with the Pistons, and confirming rumours I heard in Vegas, Rasho Nesterovic is also on Detroit's wish list. If these two are off the board, it doesn't leave a lot of options for Colangelo in terms of serviceable back-ups, in particular for Andrea Bargnani.

Aaron Gray, Johan Petro or Shelden Williams? Is there enough upside in names like this?

Or how about athletic shot-blockers like Stromile Swift or Johan Petro, players who just haven't been able to live up to expectations?

Grizzled vets like Adonal Foyle, Ben Wallace or Theo Ratlif? Ratliff might be interesting if he could stay healthy...

...and please don't say Jamaal Magloire.

Of the remaining "bigs," the best options are actually 4's like Joel Anthony or again, Toronto's own Pops Mensah-Bonsu. Both have played the center spot at times, especially Anthony, and both have more upside than almost anyone left in their category.

Another option might be Joe Smith, however I'm not sure he has any reason to leave Cleveland regardless of how much money is thrown his way. And if Toronto goes a bit smaller, then maybe they gamble on someone like Leon Powe, who because of his recent injury might be had for cheap.

The tricky thing is that if waiting on Jack eliminates various options for bench depth, BC might be placed in a situation where he feels he needs to overpay to secure a much-needed back-up at the 5. And considering the expected luxury tax drop next summer, this is something they need to be very wary of.

The last thing Toronto wants is to shore up an important bench spot behind Jose only to be forced into signing Robert Swift for the next 3 years...

FRANCHISE

Official Salary Cap and Luxury Tax figures for your Chicago Bulls

your friendly BullsBlogger — Wed, 08 Jul 2009 03:45:21 -0000

AP:

The NBA salary cap has been set for next season at $57.7 million, a decline from 2008-09, allowing teams to begin signing players.

The figure the league announced Tuesday night was about $1 million less than last season's cap of $58.68 million, even though league-wide revenue rose 2.5 percent. The number is expected to drop further next season when the full effect of the economic difficulties hit.

The new salary cap went into effect at 12:01 a.m. EDT on Wednesday, ending the NBA's moratorium period and allowing free agents to sign deals with teams.

The luxury tax level also dropped to $69.92 million. Any team whose salary exceeds that will have to pay $1 for every $1 it goes over.

(emphasis mine, and emphasis of the Bulls franchise)

I'll just copy the work of RealGM poster Tommy Udo 6, who figured how close the Bulls actually are to the tax threshold:

Signed:

Brad Miller – $12,250,000
Luol Deng - $10,365,000
Kirk Hinrich - $9,500,000
Jerome James – $ 6,600,000
Tim Thomas – $6,466,600
John Salmons - $6,429,151
Derrick Rose - $5,184,480
Tyrus Thomas – $4,743,598
Joakim Noah – $2,445,680
TOTAL for 9 players above = $63,984,509

To be Signed:

James Johnson - $1,594,080 (120% of rookie scale)
Taj Gibson - $1,039,800 (120% of rookie scale)
Aaron Gray – $1,000,497 (Qualifying Offer)
Anthony Roberson – $855,189 (Unguaranteed; Guaranteed date: July 10)
DeMarcus Nelson - $736,420 (Unguaranteed)

TOTAL for 14 players above = $69,210,495

So yeah, it's very close.

A couple things to add:

They have to carry at least 13 players on the roster
The reason the rookie's deals are 120% of the rookie scale (instead of simply the scale amount) is because that's the maximum they can sign for, and teams universally decide to do so.
It'll be a good indication as to whether Roberson's staying on the roster if he's on the Summer League roster.
I do not know why the Bulls extended that Qualifying Offer to Aaron Gray. They can still recind it, though I'm not quite sure what kind of dance must be done in terms of the player taking the qualifying offer before the team pulls it. Maybe Reinsdorf can arbitrarily pull the offer like he did with the extension to Ben Gordon last summer?
I tried to not mention Gordon, sorry. The release of these figures means he can officially become a Piston now, by the way.

The Shopping List

atthehive — Mon, 29 Jun 2009 00:03:53 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

Ike Diogu is one of the 50 front court options NBA teams have this summer.

Browse more photos »

I took a look at our budget last post (1-2 million dollars to sign one player). Now, let's assess what people are going to cost.

I've tried to include every front court free agents (UFA and RFA) that I could find here, but if I missed any, let me know. Big thanks to this list from Depressed Fan and to ESPN player pages. Quick explanation of the table: Restricted refers to UFA/RFA status, competitors refers to projected number of teams that want the player, Salary projection is my estimation of the player's market value, and target refers to whether New Orleans can reasonably target the player (in parantheses is an explanation of why (expensive, etc)).

The full 50 player table after the jump.

Player	Restricted?	Last Salary	Competitors	Projection ($)	Target?
Rasheed Wallace	No	20.1M	3+	10-15	No ($)
Malik Rose	No	11.5M	0	Minimum	No (sucks)
Drew Gooden	No	3.0M	1-2	2-4	Yes ($)
Chris Wilcox	No	10.1M	1-2	2-5	Yes ($)
Stromile Swift	No	0.83M	0-1	Minimum	Yes
Shawn Marion	No	20.1M	3+	12-18	No ($)
Ike Diogu	Yes	8.8M	0-1	2-4	Yes ($)
Lamar Odom	No	20.1M	3+	15-20	No ($)
Paul Millsap	Yes	1.6M	3+	unknown, but $$$	No ($)
Charlie Villanueva	Yes	10.3M	1-2	8-15	No ($)
Joe Smith	No	2.4M	1-2	2-4	Yes ($)
Shelden Williams	No	4.1M	0-1	Minimum	Yes
Maceo Baston	No	4.5M	0-1	1-2	Yes
Cedric Simmons	No	2.7M	0	Minimum	No (sucks)
Marcin Gortat	Yes	0.83M	0	Minimum	No (sucks)
Chris Andersen	No	0.83M	2-3	2-4	Yes (DEN)
Channing Frye	Yes	9.5M	0-1	2-4	No ($, sucks)
Hakim Warrick	Yes	6.4M	1-2	4-8	Yes ($)
David Lee	Yes	6.1M	3+	unknown, but $$$	No ($)
Steve Novak	No	1.0M	0-1	min-3	Yes
Donyell Marshall	No	0.83M	0-1	Minimum	Yes (old)
Ryan Bowen	No	0.83M	0	Minimum	Yes
Michael Ruffin	No	0.83M	0	Minimum	Yes
Shavlik Randolph	No	0.83M	0-1	Minimum	Yes
Leon Powe	Yes	0.83M	3+	Unknown, but $$	No ($)
Glen Davis	Yes	1.0M	2-3	3-7	Yes (BOS)
Raef LaFrentz	No	19.1M	0	Negative	No (sucks)
Rasho Nesterovic	No	12.6M	1-2	3-5	Yes ($)
Jason Collins	No	9.3M	0	Minimum	No (sucks)
Zaza Pachulia	No	8.0M	2-3	4-5	No ($)
Robert Swift	No	7.2M	0	Minimum	Yes
Aaron Gray	Yes	0.83M	0-1	Minimum	Yes
Chris Mihm	No	5.0M	0-1	2-3	Yes
Saer Sene	No	0.83M	0	Minimum	Yes
Jarron Collins	see Jason	4.1M	see Jason	see Jason	see Jason
DJ Mbenga	No	0.96M	0	Minimum	No (sucks)
Calvin Booth	No	2.7M	0	Minimum	No (sucks)
Melvin Ely	No	0.83M	0	Minimum	Yes (sucks)
Ryan Hollins	No	0.83M	0-1	1-2	Yes
Lorenzen Wright	No	0.83M	0	Minimum	Yes (old)
Adonal Foyle	No	0.83M	0	Minimum	Yes (old)
Jamaal Magloire	No	0.83M	0-1	Minimum	Yes (old)
Sean Marks	No	0.83M	0	Minimum	Yes (old)
Theo Ratliff	No	0.83M	0-1	Minimum	Yes (old)
Johan Petro	Yes	5.9M	0-1	2-3	Yes
Jake Voskuhl	No	0.83M	0-1	Minimum	No (sucks)
Marvin Williams	Yes	14.1M	3+	10-15	No ($)
James Singleton	No	0.83M	0-1	Minimum	Yes (DAL)
Walter Herrmann	No	4.0M	0-1	2-4	Yes

So out of the 50 UFA/RFA big men of 2009, the Hornets can put 30 of them on their radar.

As you can see, there are a ton of guys out there. Not all of these guys (or even half these guys, I suspect) are going to find homes next season. Yes, there is a good deal of variance, but the supply is definitely greater than the demand.

There are four tiers the 30 players can be split into.

"Uh Oh, Everybody's Gone And/Or (Probably And) We're Broke."

Among the 30 potential signees, we can probably classify some of them as last gasp options due to suckage, old age, or some combination of the two. Of all the players I gave a 'yes' in the far right column, here are the ones I'd categorize as last resorts:

Steve Novak: The Hornets have gaping holes in their frontcourt, but specifically they need to target rebounders. When David West and Tyson Chandler hit the bench, Byron Scott won't appreciate a big man that spends 99.999% of his time between three point arcs. Novak's rebound rate is barely half of Hilton Armstrong's. Yeah. Consider this the last last resort.
Donyell Marshall- DMarsh is another three point specialist, but he's been a stellar defensive rebounder throughout his career. The issues clearly are that he's 36 years old, and he's nearing retirement. Toss in a recent comment about how he'd want to come in and mentor guys if he joined a new team (nothing on actually playing), and you don't have a great combination.
Michael Ruffin- He's undersized but a fantastic rebounder on offense and defense. The question with him is playing time. He only got 11 games last year, 46 the year before, and 30 before that. Nobody knows how he'd hold up over 82, especially now that he's on the wrong side of 30.
Ryan Bowen- Great hustle, but I don't think I need to elaborate much here.
Shavlik Randolph- Randolph only got in 89 games in his first 4 years in the league. But he's shown some serious potential on the boards. The risk is that if we pin our one rebounding hope on the 25 year old and he blows up, well, we won't be in great shape.
Robert Swift- Showed lots of potential, once upon a time. He's the madly tattooed, infinitely riskier Shavlik Randolph.
Saer Sene- 47 games in three years. He'll be mad cheap, but he's 7'0" and weighs 220 pounds. You tell me how that's gonna end up.
Melvin Ely- Yeah.
Ryan Hollins- I rank Hollins somewhere between Last Resorts and the next category. He's a great shot blocker with good timing, and while he isn't the most impressive defensive boarder, his offensive figures are nice. He brings great energy to both sides of the floor. With Eric Dampier rumored to be on his way out of Dallas, I wonder how much the Mavs will spend to keep him. My feeling is they like him a good bit... and Hollins is only worth it if he comes cheap.
Lorenzen Wright- With age, his offensive boarding figures have slipped badly. And last year, not one, not two, but three teams (ATL, SAC, CLE) tossed him in the their respective trash cans. He brings size (6'11), if not bulk (225), and he has a career full of good defensive rebounding. One of the better Last Resort picks, though it wouldn't be a flashy signing at all.
Adonal Foyle- And if you thought Lorenzen was the antithesis of all things stylish, well, apparently, you've never seen this guy. Most famous for clanging an open 7 footer off the side of the backboard, Foyle's actually a decent option. The problem here is that he spent most of last year injured. Not sure the Hornets are willing to gamble on a 34 year old's health.
Sean Marks- I think Marks is a last resort, not because of his play necessarily, but because it wouldn't go over well with the fans. Most Hornets' supporters are looking for a front court overhaul. The truth is, Marks' 9/18/13.5 rebounding split from last year wasn't shabby at all. An understatedly decent last resort option
Theo Ratliff- Ratliff hasn't been discussed in a basketball context ever since he legally changed his name to The Expiring Contract of Theo Ratliff some time in 2004. Though the dude is older than my pet rock, he provided Philadelphia some boards and some blocks last year. Overall, he's way too old to be considered a good signing.
Johan Petro- I'd rank the Denver center higher (his rebounding numbers are terrific) but he seemingly never plays, and he is straight up horrible at basketball. A center with a 43% true shooting percentage? Unbelievably atrocious.
Stromile Swift- From 2000-2008, SS was a serviceable player. Great rebounder, good shot blocker, coudl even put the ball in the bucket unassisted, once a month. Suddenly everybody forgot about him, and he played nineteen of the most anonymous games in NBA history with NJN and PHO last season. One of those guys where if he goes to the Knicks, everyone will rag on them for getting another overpaid bust, and if he goes to the Spurs, everyone will praise them for getting another underpaid overachiever. If he goes to New Orleans? Who knows.
Walter Herrmann- Imagine Hilton Armstrong with range. (If you can actually do this, I have just one question: are you on drugs?)

"Yeah If We Got Him, Sweet... But We're Not Getting Him"

Glen Davis- Boston is going to keep him. Danny Ainge will re-sign him. Kevin Garnett will continue to make him cry. I don't see many ways around this. Plus, his rebounding is mediocre, his offensive abilities are vastly overrated on the strength of one or two jumpers he made in the playoffs, and he really isn't that great at anything else. So "If we got him, sweet" would probably not be an accurate description of Glen Davis, now that I think about it.
Joe Beast- aka Joe Smith to those unacquainted with his hip hop skills. Smith is kind of like Davis in that his team is probably going to keep him (I can't see Cleveland performing a single action that does not directly contribute towards the appeasement of the Great One). Smith is also kind of not like Davis in that he's actually good at basketball.
Antonio McDyess- Dice is likely out of the Pistons' price range this summer, though they have said they want to keep him. He made 6 million+ last year. I know there's always the chance he takes a pay cut to join a contender... but who really considers the Hornets a contender now any way?
Chris Andersen- The league leader in block rate will be getting some sort of financial upgrade, and probably one from Denver. If not, there will be plenty of teams just salivating at the thought of overpaying the 31 year old.
Hakim Warrick- Warrick is another guy in line for an upgrade on his 1.5 million a year salary. He's not the most efficient scorer, but I'd say he's the most underrated foul drawer in the entire league (6.6 FTA/36, which would be 0.3 more than Chris Paul, without the aid of superstar calls). He's a decent rebounder too. If Memphis doesn't realize what they have on their hands, plenty of others will do the realizing for them.
Marcin Gortat- If recent rumors are to be believed, the Magic are in hot pursuit of Rasheed Wallace and/or Brandon Bass. It sure sounds like they're gearing up to lose their backup power forward. The Gortat situation is a tricky one to read. On the one hand, he made under a million dollars last year. On the other hand, he had a great postseason and pretty much the entire NBA now knows about him. Positives: beastly rebounder, very efficient scorer, brings terrific energy. Downside: fouls a lot, but who really cares. But all this misses a crucial point- several teams have already reportedly discussed offering Gortat a large part of their midlevel exceptions (five million plus).

"Maybe They'll Forgive Us For Not Taking Blair Now"

Radoslav Nesterovic- aka Rasho to those unacquainted with Slovenian. Nesterovic is one of the few 30+ options I wouldn't mind. He has size (7'), bulk (250), and the career rebounding split (10/17/13) to warrant a serious look. The biggest issue would be salary. He made 7 million+ last year alone, and he hasn't earned below 2.5 mil since 2002-2003. If he agreed to take a pay cut with us, that'd be terrific.
Aaron Gray- It's universally agreed that Aaron Gray sucks, but he could help us out big time in the rebounding department. With a 14/22/18 split last year, he would bring rebounding figures that very few free agent bigs could match. He should be dirt cheap (making less than half a million last year on a second rounder contract). With a lot of teams looking at the flashier names, we're likely to receive less competition to sign him. And of course, the kicker is that he's a big from the University of Pittsburgh, something a lot of people seemed to want around these parts.
Shelden Williams- I've always loved Williams. Seemingly not in possession of a neck, he'd be the perfect complement to Hilton "The Ostrich" Armstrong. He posted super awesome terrific rebounding figures with ATL his rookie year before they moved him to Sacramento. He finished last year in Minnesota. He seems universally unwanted, but he'd be a tremendous bargain for the Hornets.
Maceo Baston- Baston's first salary was 20,000 with the Chicago Bulls in 1999. So I'm thinking he might be down to make a couple million with us next year. Last year with Toronto, he posted an 11/15/13 rebounding split in 27 games. He draws fouls at a decent rate and has a nice offensive game. He can also block a few shots here and there. The biggest problem is his size- 6'9" and 215 pounds; I don't know how long he can hold up.
Chris Mihm- Mihm has posted very, very nice rebounding numbers throughout his career. (a career 11/19/14 split). I thought we'd seen the last of him after his sparring session with D.J. Mbenga, but who knows. Could be an attractive option, given the lack of competition and low price.
Jamaal Magloire- 14/24/19 rebounding split last year. That's all you gotta know about the Big Cat. He will rebound the hell out of that ball.
James Singleton- Thanks to reader Scott for e-mailing to me about Singleton. Personally, this would be one of my favorite signings if it happened. Singleton, who broke into the League as a swingman, has seriously bulked up in recent years. He posted a 12/21/16 rebounding split with Dallas last year, terrific numbers for any player, let alone one making the minimum. He was also very efficient at putting the ball in the bucket (the most efficient out of any of the 30 on this list). Want more? He didn't turn the ball over, and Dallas put a fair bit of responsibility on him when he was in the game. And, oh yeah, he has three point range. Unfortunately, it appears we have compeition. Both my Dallas contacts confirmed that the Mavs have definite interest in bringing him back next season, and Singleton seems to like his situation there too. Don't know if it will happen, but Singleton would be an amazing, cheap add.

"The Heavens Have Smiled Upon Us"

Chris Wilcox- Wilcox parlayed a terrific contract year with the Clips into an overpaid two year stint with the SuperThunder. This summer, he's likely to return to his rightful tax bracket, and if so, the Hornets stand to benefit. At a career 9/20/14 rebounding split, Melvin Ely's twin would make Melvin himself a distant memory. Wilcox can also jump out the gym, so Chris Paul could still have an alley-oop partner when he's on the floor with the bench and Tyson's off. Wilcox's defense has been questioned repeatedly... but dude's trying to make the New Orleans Hornets' bench, not the All Defense team. I'd take him in a heartbeat, providing he agrees to slash his salary to the 2 million range.
Ike Diogu- Enter Mr. Diogu. I like Ike, and you should too. He never really got a chance with the GSW, or the IND, or the POR. Finally, he got some minutes with SAC last year, and they were predictably glorious. In the last two games, he dropped 32 on Denver, and 28 on Minnesota (oh, what's that you say about Denver resting its starters and Al Jefferson being injured? I can't really hear you, you're going to have to speak louder). He can rebound, and he draws fouls like a maniac. While he's kind of foul-prone, he doesn't turn the ball over. The kicker? His full name is Ikechukwa Somotochukwa Diogu. Pau Gasol is already recoiling in fear.
Drew Gooden- For a while there, it appeared Gooden's basketball ability had taken a back seat to him cultivating that ridiculous beard. But now all is well. Ever since he left the company of the Great Shining Internationally Renowned Supreme Basketball Talent, Gooden's been looking on the up and up. Rebounding last year? Try 10.4/22.6/16.6. 52.6% true shooting. 11.7% turnovers. 4.0 FTA/36 minutes. The one flaw is that he's lost all ability to put the ball in the bucket from the floor... but I can excuse that. Another downside: Signing the 27 year old Gooden would probably cement Jeff Bower's place as the Greatest GM in the History of Western Civilization.

So there you have it.

50 options -> 30 reasonable options -> 25 actually reasonable options -> 9 actually reasonable and good options -> 3 actually reasonable and very good options. Happy shopping.

6 Years of Heat draft picks: Who did we miss out on?

DolPhanDave — Mon, 18 May 2009 03:37:21 -0000

This is the 2nd half of our look back on past Heat drafts. I showed you all the picks the Heat have made since D-Wade, but now I’ll list the players the Heat could have drafted…the guys that we’re scooped up after our picks.

Make sure you notice the pick numbers, and in come cases see who was taken the pick right after the Heat. When the guy picked after your guy ends up being great, it explains the 2007 draft day trade for Daequan Cook. Good call there. Does that mean that O.J. Mayo was the pick to make instead of Michael Beasley?

2003 Draft- Heat select Dwyane Wade with the 5th overall pick and in Round 2 (pick 33) selected F Jerome Beasley.
Pick 38- G Steve Blake
Pick 42- F Zaza Pachulia
Pick 45- F Matt Bonner
Pick 47- G Mo Williams
Pick 49- F James Jones
Pick 51- Kyle Korver

2004 Draft- Heat select Dorell Wright with the 19th overall pick and in Round 2 selected C Albert Miralles with the 39th pick and F Matt Freije with the 53rd pick. I’ll start with the first guy drafted after Dorell.
Pick 20- G Jameer Nelson
Pick 24- G Delonte West
Pick 25- G/F Tony Allen
Pick 26- G Kevin Martin
Pick 27- G Sasha Vujacic
Pick 28- G Beno Udrih
Pick 30- F Anderson Varejao
Pick 38- G Chris Duhon
Pick 43- F Trevor Ariza

2005 Draft- Heat select F Wayne Simien with the 29th overall pick in Round 1.
Pick 30- F David Lee
Pick 33- F Brandon Bass
Pick 34- G CJ Miles
Pick 37- F Ronny Turiaf
Pick 39- G Von Wafer
Pick 40- G Monta Ellis
Pick 49- F Andray Blatche
Pick 50- F Ryan Gomes
Pick 56- F Amir Johnson

2007 Draft (Miami had no picks in 2006)- Heat select Jason Smith with the 20th overall pick, then immediately trade him to Philadelphia for the 21st overall pick Daequan Cook (and cash). Miami also selected C Stanko Barac with the 39th overall pick in Round 2.
Pick 23- F Wilson Chandler
Pick 24- G Rudy Fernandez
Pick 26- G Aaron Brooks
Pick 31- G Carl Landry
Pick 35- F Glen Davis
Pick 48- C Marc Gasol
Pick 49- C Aaron Gray

2008 Draft- Heat select Michael Beasley with the 2nd overall pick and acquire Mario Chalmers’ rights from Minnesota in exchange for 2 future 2nd round picks and cash considerations. They also selected F Darnell Jackson with the 52nd overall pick and traded him to Cleveland. Nobody chosen after him has done anything of note…yet.

Still think our drafts have been good? Our two best (and most obvious) picks have been lottery picks (Wade and Beasley) and our two possible wild-cards are Cook and Chalmers, with a slight chance of Dorell Wright. But do all those names reach out and smack you in the face, or are you cool with what we have?

Poll

How do you feel the Heat have done with their draft picks since D-Wade?

Great. Wade, Beasley, Chalmers, Cook...couldn't do much better.

186 votes

So-So. Happy about the good picks, but also a lot of misses.

392 votes

Poor. Way too many bad picks.

174 votes

752 votes | Poll has closed