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3 In the Key - Toronto Raptors Game-Day Preview vs. Denver

RaptorsHQ - Franchise — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 13:42:14 -0000

More photos » by Garrett Ellwood - NBAE/Getty Images

The Raptors face the tough task of stopping Carmelo Anthony and the high-scoring Denver Nuggets this evening.

RaptorsHQ sets up tonight's match, a tough one on the road against the well-balanced Denver Nuggets...

I'm a big believer in "balance = success" in the NBA.

To me the best teams in the league have that perfect mix of O and D, and a variation of players who perform all types of functions on the court; from scoring to getting loose balls.

When the Denver Nuggets acquired Chauncey Billups last season from the Detroit Pistons, I felt that they cemented a fairly balanced group; one capable of scoring with the Lakers of the league, yet being able to bang with the Celtics as well.

And, while the team didn't make the NBA Finals, it did make it to the Western Conference's Big Dance before bowing out to the eventual NBA Champs, the Lakers.

This year, Denver already has raced out to a Northwest Division-leading 7 and 3 record, and that's in the absence of some key pieces. The team looks just as strong as last year, if not stronger in some ways, and it's that balance that leads the charge. Check the resume:

-Pass-first point guard who anchors the team's D? Check - see Mr. Billups.

-Scoring wing who creates mismatches on offense? Check - see Mr. Anthony.

-New-school athletic big-man? Check - see Mr. Nene.

-Rugged rebounder and defender who does the dirty work? Check - see Mr. Martin.

-Wing who can create his own shot and hit clutch baskets? Check - see Earl...er...Mr. JR Smith.

Add in a bench that features a shot-blocker (Chris Andersen), a hustle and garbage man (Renaldo Balkman), a shut-down defender (Arron Afflalo - who actually starts at the moment with JR Smith coming off the bench), a seasoned playoff-tested back-up point guard (Anthony Carter) and a lightning quick sparkplug (Ty Lawson) and you've got a pretty solid group.

And that's not even counting Joey Graham!

The point here is that this Nuggets team in my eyes is one of the most deadly in the league, showcasing a unique blend of depth, athletic ability, defensive feistiness, and offensive effeciency. And the stats bear this out.

Denver is fifth in the league in offensive efficiency, sixth in "true-shooting percentage," and yet despite playing at the league's fifth-fastest pace, have one of the top point differentials in the league, scoring on average 106 points and limiting opponents to 100.

No, the Nuggets haven't quite hit the same defensive stride as last season, but it's still early and coach George Karl is still tweaking the roster with players returning from injury and suspension.

To me, tonight's game will be Toronto toughest of the year, and for them to get the W, they need to excel in three areas:

1) Rebounding.

We've been through the Raps' rebounding issues all season and sans Reggie Evans, it's hard to say that things will change in this fashion overnight.

However interestingly enough, the Nuggets statistically rank right alongside Toronto in this department, despite the likes of Nene, Martin and Andersen.

The Nuggets like to score so it's imperative that the Dinos not allow second-chance looks tonight. I'm hoping to see solid close-outs, and in particular, bodies on the Denver wings who have the athletic ability to cause havoc on the glass.

2) The Small Forward Match-Up.

There's another 2003 draft class alumnist besides Chris Bosh who's making an early-season MVP-type run; Carmelo Anthony. Melo is averaging a shade under 30 points a game, shooting nearly 45 per cent from the field, 36 per cent from long-range, and over 85 per cent from the line. Oh, and toss in 6 rebounds and and nearly 3 assists a game on top of that.

Not too shabby.

It sounds like Hedo Turkoglu, despite continuing hip issues, will play, so it will be up to him to contain Anthony. I'm not expecting a shut-down performance here, but Toronto can't let Melo go off thus opening things up for the rest of Denver's explosive offense. With Antoine Wright a question mark again, the onus will really by on Turk to keep Melo somewhat in check, and it will be interesting to see who else Jay Triano rolls out in a stopper role, and what the Raps' defensive plan for Anthony will be should Wright be unable to go.

Additionally, while Melo has been playing at an all-world level, he and his teammates at times still fall victim to what a scout last night described to me as a "type F personality," that is to say they can become easily frustrated and allow their emotions to get the best of them, especially in tight games. Hedo might not be an all-defensive team member, but he's got that bit of Vlade Divac in him that hopefully he uses to give Anthony a rough go tonight.

And hopefully his Raptor' teammates follow suit.

3) Bench Play.

With JR Smith back from suspension, and Ty Lawson making NBA GM's regret passing on him already, the Nuggets feature some very explosive offensive options off the pine. The challenge for Toronto tonight much like against Phoenix on Sunday, will be to match Denver's subs' energy level when they enter the game to ensure this one stays close. Players like Amir Johnson and Marco Belinelli will likely be counted on again to give the club a shot in the arm, and whichever team's bench does a better job dictating tempo and intensity, could end up being the deciding factor in a W or an L.

And after all, the last thing Raptors' fans want to see is a replay of this, only with Lawson finishing on top of two Dinos en route to a blowout Toronto loss.

Game 8 Preview & Thread: Nuggets at Bulls (6pm MDT)

Nate Timmons — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 20:14:32 -0000

Nuggets Nation has been anxiously awaiting the arrival of J.R. Smith (or Earl as he now wants to be called) for the 2009-10 season ... well, the wait is over. Smith will see his first action tonight in Chicago after serving his seven-game suspension to start the season. Smith's return couldn't come at a better time, as he'll provide Denver with some fresh legs off the bench.

Last season Denver went into Chicago, faced a depleted Bulls team (their major trade deadline deal kept their new additions out of uniform) with only eight active players, and lost 116-99. In fact, the Bulls starting five that night (Luol Deng, Tyrus Thomas, Joakim Noah, Ben Gordan and Derrick Rose) outscored the entire Nuggets team 103-99.

But that was last season and I don't really correlate past success being all of too relevant in professional sports with the ever changing landscape and all.

Also, who here is sick of me doing all the previews and recaps? Maybe someone should start a "We want Andrew back" FanPost! Ha ha joking, but seriously ... he'll be back as usual very soon - so you wont have to keep putting up with just my view!

Let's break this game down!

Records:
Denver: 5-2
Chicago: 4-2 (key wins: vs. San Antonio, at Cleveland)
Injuries:
Denver: Kenyon Martin - probable (left fibula contusion)
Chicago: Aaron Gray (left fibula fracture), Jerome James (right Achilles) and Tyrus Thomas (left radius fracture) are all out tonight.

Point Guard: Chauncey Billups vs. Derrick Rose
This is going to be a tough matchup for Billups as the one thing an aging point guard has issues with are the young quick guys coming into their own. The 21-year-old Rose is lightening quick and Billups will have a tough time staying in front of him. Rose's minutes are down quite a bit from his averages last season (roughly from 37 mpg to 30 mpg this season), but when he's on the floor he will cause Denver problems if he's driving the ball and getting out in transition. On the flip side ... Billups is a strong guard who will take advantage of every weakness in Rose's game. The way the two are playing right now ... advantage even.

Shooting Guard: Joey Graham/Arron Afflalo vs. John Salmons
Our first big question mark ... who will Karl start tonight and how much will they play? Salmons is a scorer and has great size for the shooting guard spot, but his game has been off this season as he's only shooting 34% from the field and averaging 13.8 points per game (down from 18.3 ppg last season). Graham and Afflalo both matchup well with Salmons if they stay committed on the defensive end and Afflalo has been stepping up his offensive game now that he's growing more comfortable in the Denver offense. Karl stated in the Denver Post that he wants to get Smith minutes "in the low 20s" tonight so I'll be interested to see how much burn Graham and Double-A get. Advantage: Even.

Small Forward: Carmelo Anthony vs. Luol Deng
The injury plagued Deng, who only appeared in 49 games last season, is having a nice bounce-back season averaging 16.7 points and 10 rebounds in roughly 37 minutes per game. Deng leads the low-scoring (88.5 ppg) Bulls in ... scoring, but he'll have his work cut out for him tonight with Melo. Anthony is capable of dominating this matchup on the offensive end if he plays the right way. In Denver's first three games Melo averaged 4.3 assists and since this roadtrip has begun he has averaged 2 assists in the last four games (pretty funny when you consider he scored more points in Denver's first three games than the last four). I know assists are not really the most accurate way to judge if a guy is playing unselfish basketball (since one guy decides what is an assist), but Melo needs to trust his teammates to make plays and let the offense come to him. I barely realized in the first two games that Melo was looking for his shot and he needs to get back to playing more team basketball. Advantage: Nuggets.

Power Forward: Kenyon Martin vs. Taj Gibson
The rookie out of USC (26th overall pick) will again be starting in place of injured Tyrus Thomas. Gibson scored a career-high 11 points on 5-12 shooting in Cleveland on November 5th, but this will be a tough matchup for him. I don't know much else about the kid, but playing against a fired up K-Mart is not going to be very much fun. Here is what Martin said in the Denver Post today.

"I'm going to play, man — no matter how I feel," said Martin, who sustained a left leg bruise on Friday in Miami. "We lost two games in a row. Bottom line, we've got to stop the bleeding. I think my presence on the court will go a long way."

Martin has an excellent way of making his presence known, ask any NBA rim or Dirk Nowitzki. Advantage: Nuggets.

Center: Nene vs. Joakim Noah
Both of these guys are capable of making incredible faces after they feel a bad call went against them or if they don't get a call they feel they deserved. Seriously though, both guys are undersized centers who rely on different aspects of their game to get by. Noah is a ferocious rebounder and ultimate hustle guy. Nene is a talented offensive player who thrives off playing above the rim. The emotions inside the game can get the better of each guy and whomever can control their game will win this battle. Advantage: Even.

Bench: Ty Lawson, Earl "J.R." Smith, Double-A/Graham, Renaldo Balkman, Chris Andersen and Anthony Carter vs. Kirk Hinrich, Brad Miller, Jannero Pargo and James Johnson.
Right off the bat ... Karl has not settled on a certain rotation as of yet and that's basically because Smith has been out and K-Mart suffered an early injury. Vinny Del Negro however, basically has been using a seven-man rotation with just Miller and Hinrich logging major minutes of the bench. Both Bulls bench guys are veterans who know their roles with the team. Hinrich could start for a lot of teams in the league and is a very nice asset off the bench. (To be honest ... I'd like to see some Lawson vs. Rose and Hinrich vs. Billups in this one.) The Nuggets though have a deeper unit and get a big shot in the arm with the return of #5 ... yes, Earl Smith. If Smith can shake off the rust early he will log big minutes and could prove to be the lift this team needs along with K-Mart's return. I like what Denver's bench brings tonight and think they can be the difference. Advantage: Nuggets.

Opposition's take: Blog a Bull (their preview is up)

ntimmons73@yahoo.com

Photo Courtesy: AP Photos David Zalubowski

(link in the story to the Denver Post article sourced: http://www.denverpost.com/nuggets/ci_13751049, http://www.denverpost.com/nuggets/ci_13754906)

It's your turn, Melo...

Andrew Feinstein — Sun, 25 Oct 2009 22:25:35 -0000

There's only one path to an NBA Championship for our Denver Nuggets: Carmelo Anthony must play like a superstar every night.

Fair or not, the consequences of the Nuggets brass making the necessary moves over the summer to keep their Western Conference Finals team in-tact without breaking the bank means that to top last season's stellar performance - i.e. reach the NBA Finals - an upgrade in play must come from within.

And news to Nuggets fans: that upgrade isn't coming from Kenyon Martin, who will never live up to his max contract. Nor will it come from Chauncey Billups, who will age gracefully but age nonetheless. Nor from Chris Andersen, who we just hope will replicate his remarkable 2008-09 season even after receiving a comfortable contract. Nor will Renaldo Balkman, Anthony Carter and Johan Petro - whose collective effort is always sincerely appreciated - magically turn into anything better than the solid role players that they are.

I do foresee Nene playing better, but not turning into the 20/10 player he could be if he was stationed permanently at his natural position of power forward. And J.R. Smith should continue to improve even after serving a seven-game suspension, but he'll still be coming off the bench, will have minutes eaten into by Arron Afflalo and won't be appearing in Dallas in mid-February at the All-Star Game (maybe just the dunk contest).

And, as mentioned above, those fine new acquisitions - Afflalo, Ty Lawson, Malik Allen and Joey Graham - are solid enough to keep the Nuggets among the Western Conference's best.

But to be the Western Conference's best? That's up to Carmelo Anthony.

Simply put, when Melo is at his best the Nuggets might be the best. In Games 1 and 2 of the Western Conference Finals against the eventual champion Los Angeles Lakers, Melo racked up 39 and 34 points, respectively, and shot a combined 22 free throw attempts. Moreover, Melo played the closest thing to "lock down defense" that we've ever seen from him and in Game 2 in particular had several crucial offensive rebounds. Had Nuggets head coach George Karl not foolishly decided to insert Anthony Carter on Game 1's final inbounds play and/or gotten the ball to Melo more in the final minutes of both Game 1 and 2 (near the end of both games, Melo inexcusably didn't have a field goal attempt), the Nuggets leave Los Angeles up 2-0.

But the next four games told a different story regarding Melo's performance. From Games 3 through 6, Melo shot an atrocious 32% and looked visibly sluggish. He got to the free throw line quite a bit, but his defensive effort lapsed and he had only two (two?!) offensive rebounds in those remaining four games. It was as if Melo had exerted all his effort through Game 2 and had nothing left in the tank. This poor performance allowed the Lakers to steal Game 3, lay down and rest up in Game 4, and then wallop the Nuggets in Games 5 and 6 to take the series 4-2.

Momentarily forgetting Melo's performance in those last four games, the Nuggets star player had a sensational playoff run. Prior to Game 3 of the WCF, Carmelo Anthony unloaded on his opponents for 28.6 ppg, shot well over 50% from the field and routinely got to the free throw line. Coincidentally, the Nuggets were 9-3 in those games. And the numbers don't tell the whole story. Melo didn't exactly pull a George Gervin (i.e. scoring most of his points through quarters one and three), but rather made big shots at the end of the shot clock, at the end of quarters and at the end of games. Just ask former Maverick Antoine "I fouled him, no I didn't, yes I did!" Wright.

Whether he likes it or not, Melo showed us just how good he - and therefore, the Nuggets - can be. Frankly, had the Lakers not acquired Ron Artest, the Spurs not acquired Richard Jefferson and the NBA not screwed the Nuggets with the worst schedule in recent memory, Melo could replicate last season's performance and the Nuggets would be one of the favorites to appear in the NBA Finals. But that's not reality. And thus, if the Nuggets are to reach the Finals for the first time in their NBA franchise history, replication from Melo isn't going to cut it. We've been teased, and now we want the real thing for an entire season.

We need the WCF Games 1 and 2 version of Melo for 82 games plus the playoffs. There will still be those 4-of-15 shooting nights here and there and inexcusable efforts where Melo only gets to the free throw line a handful of times. But over the course of the season, we need Melo filling it up much more so than he did last season. Consider these numbers from 2008-09...

...when Carmelo Anthony shot over 50% from the field, the Nuggets were 22-5.

...when Melo attempted at least nine free throws, the Nuggets were 20-7.

...when Melo grabbed at least nine rebounds, the Nuggets were 22-5.

These numbers aren't accidental and they paint a very clear picture: when Melo is smart and aggressive, the Nuggets win almost 75% of their games. This doesn't mean that if Melo racked up 29 ppg, nine rpg, shot 50% from the field and took at least nine free throws per game the Nuggets would win over 60 games. But I bet if Melo was able to put up these types of numbers, the Nuggets could repeat or exceed last season's 54-win total, repeat as Northwest Division Champions and be in position to exact revenge on the Lakers in the conference finals. From there, Melo would have to step up even more and put on a performance a la Paul Pierce from the 2008 playoffs to lead the Nuggets to the promised land.

In spite of the formidable opposition out West and the brutal schedule, Melo has the experience, the talent and enough quality players around him to take the Nuggets all the way. And if what we've seen from Melo in the preseason thus far is any indication, he's going to have a huge season. Perhaps his best ever. But anything short of that, and Denver Stiffs' prediction of a fourth-seed finish for the Nuggets comes true.

It's your turn, Melo.

Five Questions with Mark Warkentien [UPDATED]

Dave — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 06:34:09 -0000

More photos » by Jack Dempsey - AP

Denver Nuggets vice president of basketball operations Mark Warkentien hoists up his award for being named the top general manager in the NBA, during a ceremony in Denver on Sunday, May 3, 2009. (AP Photo/Jack Dempsey)

Browse more photos »

Update: In response to the continuing questions regarding his relationship with current Blazers management, evidenced in the comment section and referenced before on this site, Mr. Warkentien had this to say:

While I don't have a decade of history working with them like I do Paul Allen, I truly like the guys (KP and Tom Penn) that currently run the Blazers. They are doing a tremendous job and I respectfully decline to comment on anything about them; I hope they go 78-4 while the Nuggies finish 82-0

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This week we were privileged to spend a little time conversing with the Vice President of Basketball Operations for the Denver Nuggets (and last year's NBA Executive of the Year) Mark Warkentien. As most remember, Mr. Warkentien was a member of the Trail Blazers organization for a decade, rising from the scouting ranks to Assistant General Manager to Director of Player Personnel in 2003-04. Here are his reflections on the Nuggets, the power of Chauncey Billups, the splendor of the Western Conference, and his time in Portland.

Blazersedge: Last year the Nuggets posted 54 wins, their best finish in the franchise's NBA history, won the division, and gave the Lakers a tough go in the Conference Finals, also a franchise milestone. Can you top that? What are the goals for this year? Is it rings or bust?

Mark Warkentien: Four years ago we won 44-games, three years ago we won 45-games and 50-games two years ago. Last year we won 54-games and advanced to the Western Conference Finals; we'd like to continue the northern trend. That said, the championship is ALWAYS the goal.

Blazersedge: One of the things Portland fans have talked about for the last couple of years is the effect the right veteran can have. Give us an idea what Chauncey Billups has meant to the Nuggets and specifically how he improved the team.

Mark Warkentien: Chauncey put everything in balance for us...The Nuggets had two outstanding shooting guards - Iverson and JR Smith - and zero big-time point guards; by swapping Iverson for Chauncey we now have one of each. Anthony Carter became our back-up PG; where he is an excellent off-the-bench player...The biggest winner from the trade might have been Melo. Suddenly, he had room to operate from his mid-post area because Smith and Billups, who are deadly shooters, loom on the outside and can punish double-teams. He also had the ball there a lot more and a lot earlier in the clock, because of Chauncey's outstanding distribution skills...We believed that we needed another sniper in the backcourt to make Coach Karl's system work. In fact, that's one reason we inked Chucky Atkins in July-2007. In Billups, we found our sniper...It also helped with the fans. Chauncey is a high-character guy with local roots and his presence created good karma with the locals; the Pepsi Center is not an easy place to play...I had the privilege of working with George Karl, The Glove and Nate-Mac in Seattle and as a group we suspected that pairing a terrific coach like GK with a great PG like Chauncey was a tree that would bear much fruit.

Blazersedge: A couple of teams in the Western Conference appear to have been hurt by injuries and trades. A couple more have made significant acquisitions to try and get better. Break down the West for us a bit. Besides the Lakers who do you see making waves?

Mark Warkentien: For the past decade the best basketball conference on the planet has been the NBA's Western; not Euroleague, the ACB or any other venue. As usual, it will be an absolute slugfest; 9-10 good teams going for eight playoffs spots. The players are great, the coaches are great and the fans rabid; fasten your seat belt and lace up your Chuck Taylors REAL tight. It will be wild once again.

Blazersedge: You worked in the Trail Blazers organization for ten years. Any reflections on your time in Portland?

Mark Warkentien: This guy is the absolute best; he was terrific to me and my family for a decade...People in Portland do not understand just how good of an owner he is and - in my opinion - is underappreciated in the Rose City. His commitment to the success of the franchise is a matter of record and he has an excellent basketball mind; this guy knows the game. He asks great questions and challenges all to be better...Success in any organization starts at the very top and it is not an accident that the Blazers have an excellent roster and are positioned for substantial future successes.

Blazersedge: You also worked with Bob Whitsitt, a name which is often vilified around these parts...

Mark Warkentien: Let me be crystal clear that I absolutely enjoyed working with Bob Whitsitt...I worked for 12-seasons with Bob Whitsitt in SEA and POR; we went 591-361 during that span; won 62% of our games (approximately 51-games per year) and made the NBA Playoffs all 12-seasons...Those that are critical of Bob should try to post like digits, prior to pontificating. The facts and figures follow:

1991-1992       SEA     047-035           .573                 Playoffs-SECOND ROUND

1992-1993       SEA     055-027           .670                 Playoffs-CONFERENCE FINALS

1993-1994       SEA     063-019           .768                 Playoffs-FIRST ROUND

1994-1995       POR    044-038           .536                 Playoffs-FIRST ROUND

1995-1996       POR    044-038           .536                 Playoffs-FIRST ROUND

1996-1997       POR    049-033           .597                 Playoffs-FIRST ROUND

1997-1998       POR    046-036           .560                 Playoffs-FIRST ROUND

1998-1999       POR    035-015           .700                 Playoffs-CONFERENCE FINALS

1999-2000       POR    059-023           .719                 Playoffs-CONFERENCE FINALS

2000-2001       POR    050-032           .609                 Playoffs-FIRST ROUND

2001-2002       POR    049-033           .597                 Playoffs-FIRST ROUND

2002-2003       POR    050-032           .609                 Playoffs-FIRST ROUND

TOTAL                           591-361           .620

During our time together he tackled some of the most complicated deals imaginable; including negotiating and managing more than $1 billion in player contracts with the Blazers/Seahawks and securing funding for the $450 million Seahawks football stadium and exhibition center. Bob is a guy that understands how to cut through the complexity of any business situation to get to the essential components that can mean the difference between success and failure. He was a dogged competitor who outworked and outmaneuvered opponents, often by taking bolder risks.

I love the guy.

Thanks to Mr. Warkentien for joining us. The West will be quite a battle this year. I'm sure most agree that a Nuggets-Blazers matchup in the playoffs would be epic.

--Dave (blazersub@yahoo.com)

Around the Association: 2009-2010 Denver Nuggets - If it ain't broke...

Hash — Tue, 08 Sep 2009 01:10:40 -0000

Damn, I'm starting to realize why no one jumped to sign up for an Around the Association look at the Denver Nuggets. Relatively speaking, these guys didn't do jack in the offseason. Short of the drafting of Ty Law, recent Tar Heel point guard, the Nuggets pretty much went out of their way to ensure that they held on to the components that took them into the 2008-2009 Western Conference Finals. When you look at it, why the hell not? While it seems like the Nuggets went on a bit of a dream run, 'Melo and company showed that this squad was more than capable of taking down anyone in the league.

...or at least, anyone in the league not called the Lakers. Zing!

Hey, if we had a team that could do this, we wouldn't change much either...

Make the jump for a quick glimps into the fate of the Nuggets for the 2009-2010 season!

Carmelo Anthony . Chauncey Billups. Nene Hilario. J.R. Smith. Kenyon Martin. Much like the Nuggets of years' past, this roster is full of talent, both among starters and on the bench. The question remains, can Denver pull off the powerhouse run that they did last year; raking in a dominant second seed in the mighty mighty West?

Okay, they're going to make the playoffs - that's a given. I mean, c'mon. Seriously. Who DOESN'T make the playoffs anymore? Can you think of a single team in recent history that has gone over 10 years without even one appearance?! Oh wait...

So far for Denver this offseason feels as though the subtle moves they've made re:changes in personnel have had a more of a base in cutting back the overall salary, rather than improvements in player talent. While George Karl and company hasn't really changed the meat and potatoes of this team, one can only wonder if the shakeup of the other components of the dish that is the Nuggets will be for the better or for the worse. They have a tough road ahead of them to duplicate (and exceed) last years' performance.

Offseason Moves:

Acquired Malik Allen from the Milwaukee Bucks
Drafted Ty Law from UNC
Acquired Aaron Afflalo from the Detroit Pistons
Resiged Chris "Birdman" Andersen (5 year contract)
Re-signed Anthony Carter (1 year contract)
Re-signed Johan Petro (1 year contract)

2008-2009 Rewind

Finished the season 54-28
Ranked #2 in the Western Conference.
Dispatched by the Lakers in the Western Conference Finals - 4 games to 2 games

Hash's Prediction

They're an excellent dark horse team for the West again this year. Hopefully we will see them achieve wins with the same ferocity that they did last year, only to get swept by the Warriors in the Western Conference finals. While I'm at it, there will be a unicorn present at the final Warriors-Nuggets Western Conference Finals Game. He will spin the ball atop his horn, dazzling everyone who sees him. "Oooohs" and "Aaaaahs" will be heard by all.

For more on the Denver Nuggets check out Denver Stiffs:

2009-2010 Around the Association

Introduction
Atlanta Hawks: Sorry, Mrs. Jackson. The Hawks are for real.
Boston Celtics: Sheed in Green + Another Answer
Charlotte Bobcats: They Do Exist
Chicago Bulls: Ring Around the Rose-y
Cleveland Cavaliers: Now or Never
Dallas Mavericks: The Curse of the Dampier
Denver Nuggets: If it ain't broke...
Detroit Pistons
Houston Rockets
Indiana Pacers
Los Angeles Clippers
Los Angeles Lakers
Memphis Grizzlies
Miami Heat
Milwaukee Bucks
Minnesota Timberwolves
New Jersey Nets
New Orleans Hornets
New York Knicks
Oklahoma City Super Sonics
Orlando Magic
Philadelphia Sixers
Phoenix Suns
Portland TrailBlazers
Sacramento Kings
San Antonio Spurs
Toronto Raptors
Utah Jazz
Washington Wizards
Rewind

How Jason Williams Compares to Orlando Magic Backup Point Guards of Yore

Ben Q Rock — Fri, 21 Aug 2009 12:00:21 -0000

I think most of us have effectively dismissed the notion that Jason Williams, the Orlando Magic's latest free-agency signing, will somehow challenge Jameer Nelson for the team's starting point guard job. Now is the time for a more worthwhile dialog, namely one focusing on how Williams stacks up against Anthony Johnson, the team's current backup.

Below, I've made a table comparing four point guards. One is Williams, one is Johnson, and the other two are players who have moved on to other teams, with their statistics coming from their last season in Orlando. I've included those two extra players in order to give us a better understanding of how Williams stacks up against recent Magic reserve point guards, to see how well he'll fit in (or not) with the team, in comparison to them. And I've removed their names (for now) in order to remove potential biases from our initial evaluations.

What a labyrinthine paragraph that was. Anyway, the comparative table:

Orlando Magic Backup Point Guard Comparison
Point Guard A	Point Guard B		Point Guard C	Point Guard D
Traditional
10.2	11.2	Points/36	13.2	12.2
3.6	2.5	Rebounds/36	3.3	3.2
4.9	5.9	Assists/36	6.0	6.2
2.0	1.7	Turnovers/36	2.1	2.2
40.4	38.4	FG%	38.5	45.1
39.1	35.3	3FG%	33.8	34.5
75.3	86.3	FT%	75.0	85.3
Advanced
10.3	12.7	PER	13.8	12.8
5.6	4.1	Rebound Rate	5.3	5.1
21.2	27.3	Assist Rate	27.0	26.6
16.4	13.5	Turnover Rate	13.3	16.4
15.5	17.0	Usage Rate	19.9	17.0
3.5	6.0	Pure Point Rating	5.5	5.4
47.2	47.2	eFG%	45.4	49.3
50.5	50.2	TS%	49.4	54.7
104	104	Offensive Rating	105	111
105	111	Defensive Rating	104	109
See the complete comparison at Basketball-Reference.com by clicking here

After the jump, the mystery players' identities revealed, and what the stats might mean.

Here, as promised, are the identities of the Magic's mystery point guards:

Point Guard A	Point Guard B	Point Guard C	Point Guard D
Anthony Johnson	Jason Williams	Rafer Alston	Carlos Arroyo

Judging by the statistics--just the raw numbers that I presented--Williams' best comparison is Alston, at least as a passer. They posted similar usage rates, assist rates and turnover rates in their last NBA season, although Williams ultimately wins out in Pure Point Rating. It's important to remember that Williams has toned down his flashy ballhandling, and thus has become a fairly reliable distributor. Like Alston, come to think of it.

Williams diverges from Alston as a scorer. Conveniently (for comparison's sake) he's highly comparable to Johnson in terms of shot selection. Check Johnson's and Williams' player profiles from 82games. Both players prefer to shoot off the dribble, with 81% of Johnson's shots classified as jumpers (85% for Williams); neither player gets much help, as Johnson received assists on only 42% of his jumpers, and Williams on 48%. Because of their infrequent forays into the lane, neither player attempts many free throws. And from the chart at the top of the post, one can see that Johnson and Williams have similar True Shooting and effective field goal percentages. Last season, Magic fans became familiar with Johnson's attempts to create shots for himself, seemingly in slow-motion. This year, it looks like they're in for more of the same, with Johnson and now Williams. It's almost uncanny.

Surprisingly, to me, is Williams' superiority to Johnson in catch-and-shoot situations. (For documentation's sake, let me note that all the statistics I've used in this paragraph come from scouting reports not available to the general public.) Last season, Johnson played (in practice, not in name) a handful of minutes at small forward when Hedo Turkoglu ran the second-unit's offense. Turk was especially adept at finding Johnson in either corner on a kick-out, and Johnson shot 54.7% (eFG%) in catch-and-shoot situations when unguarded; Williams, under the same circumstances in 2008, shot 57.0%, albeit with the dynamic Dwyane Wade doing the dishing. So what's the big deal? Williams' ability to convert at a high rate even under duress, or when guarded on a catch-and-shoot. Johnson was in the NBA's 27th percentile in this category last season, with an unremarkable effective field goal percentage of 36.7%. Williams, in 2008, with Wade usually doing the honors? An impressive 55.9%, in the 84th percentile. It remains to be seen who'll take over as the Magic's secondary ballhandler with the second-unit--Matt Barnes and Vince Carter are likely in the running--but when Williams plays away from the ball, and has opportunities to catch-and-shoot, he'll give the offense more of a lift than Johnson was able to.

If you believe in PER's ability to adequately quantify any given player's raw production, and if you believe Williams hasn't lost anything despite his year away from pro basketball, then the Magic can expect him to provide for this year's squad approximately what Carlos Arroyo did for the 2007/08 crew; their PERs differ by one-tenth of a point. Stylistically, Arroyo and Williams don't compare well, since Arroyo's much quicker, more likely to drive the ball, and a less reliable decision-maker.

Defensively, Williams has to be the worst of any of these players. That's not meant to be a slam, but even if he's as slow as Johnson, he's not as adept. Can Williams keep his man in front of him? Probably not, in most cases. What's more important, and something of which to take note during the preseason, is how competently Williams can funnel his man to a help defender.

A final note, or an asterisk, regarding Williams' modest season with the Heat in 2008: that team stank. It won 15 games; fielded what amounted to a D-League roster due to injuries; and ranked 30th, 24th, and 22nd in offensive efficiency, effective field goal percentage, and pace, respectively. The Magic team he'll join should win at least four times as many games; has a full complement of offensive weapons with whom Williams can work, provided he plays a few minutes with the starting unit; and will play at a faster pace. Williams said about as much yesterday when he indicated during the media availability session that he could stand to improve from his last season solely because of the Magic's superiority in terms of personnel:

"I can be as good or better [than before retirement] because my teammates, look at those guys, how good they are."

Indeed, the scoring prowess of Marcin Gortat and Brandon Bass trumps that of, for instance, Mark Blount and Udonis Haslem. So let's bear these potentially mitigating factors in mind when attempting to assess what Williams can contribute for Orlando. Which is, appropriately enough, the topic of my concluding paragraphs.

Overall, it appears as though Jason Williams is most similar to Rafer Alston as a passer, and Anthony Johnson as a scorer. Of course, this assessment hinges on the assumption that Williams hasn't lost a step since 2008, which is a pretty large assumption. But then again, the Magic hosted a private workout for him, after which coach Stan Van Gundy said, "He still looked like Jason Williams."

I've maintained the position that Williams wasn't the Magic's best option as a third-stringer; among minimum-salary candidates, I preferred Anthony Carter, Bobby Jackson, and (yes, even) Tyronn Lue. Williams, though, isn't a far cry from any of those guys, and from that standpoint it appears as though Smith has chosen adequately.

Daily Links 8/10

FLCeltsFan — Mon, 10 Aug 2009 18:43:26 -0000

Herald Ticket to Celtics’ doctors
Cs to announce Davis signing today
Blake Griffin, Tyler Hansbrough resting summer injuries
Timberwolves opt for Kurt Rambis
Globe Celtics 'officially' improved
Celtics sign Davis, formalize Williams deal

CelticsBlog   Why Not Anthony Carter?
Hollinger On The Celts
Big Baby and Shelden Press Conference Today
LOY's Place   In the Books - Heinsohn, Don't You Ever Smile? Part 2
Celtics 17 Cue the Spotlight on David Stern...
Red's Army    Reggie Miller is Very Persistent (with engaged women)
What will the Celtics do with Tony Allen?
Greeks continue raiding mid-level NBA talent
Green Street    Official Press Release: Celtics Re-Sign Glen Davis
Celtics Circuit     Which Vetern Point Guards Remain?
Celtics Hub     Anthony Carter: Too Turnover Prone?
NESN    Celtics Legend Russell Offers Inspiration at Seahawks Training Camp
One Final Piece to Add to the Celtics' Puzzle for Next Season
Big Baby Davis Returns to Celtics
Fernsten's Follies     Nash Wanted Shaq Out
Lex Nihil Novi     Even-Handed Evaluation of Mr. Daniels
1981-82 Win Streak Ties Club Record
Lester Hudson is 5'11
Battle of the Streaks: KC Jones Compares 1982 to 1960
Fox Sports    Who are the NBA's tough guys and softies?
ESPN    Boston Celtics re-sign free-agent power forward Glen 'Big Baby' Davis
A Quarter-Century Later, Kurt Rambis Takes Out Kevin McHale
Bleacher Report    NBA Playoffs 2010: Who'll Rise, Fall, or Stay Put (Eastern Conference)
Xconomy   Connective Orthopaedics Wants to Improve ACL Surgeries, Taps Celtics CEO as Director
CT News    Buyers Market For Many NBA Free Agents
Daily News Tribune    Celtics, Big Baby putting finishing touches on contract
Inside Hoops    NBA Rumors - InsideHoops
News OK    NBA attendance figures
Dimemag    Digging through the free-agent scrap heap, and Isiah’s stomping with the big dogs
FanHouse    Five You'd Like to Play Alongside
Dueling Couches   Big Baby Back With The Celtics
Slam Online   Celtics to Get their Big Baby Back
The Knicks Blog   Jackson Passed Over…Again
Celtics Town    Athletes' Tweets, Starring Doug Christie
Eddie House - From Journeyman To Champion
CSNE    Celtics Stuff Live 8/9 with Kevin Henkin
Tuesdays with Horry   Types of Basketball Players
Hardwood Houdini    McHale clotheslines Rambis… Rambis takes McHale’s job.
.Associated Content    Ben Wallace Signs with Detroit Pistons; Looks to Reclaim Glory Days

Why Not Anthony Carter?

Jeff Clark — Mon, 10 Aug 2009 10:25:58 -0000

More photos » by Jack Dempsey - AP

Anthony Carter can pass, but is he a good option?

Browse more photos »

We still have that backup point guard spot to fill. It sounds like the Celtics have ruled out Stephon Marbury, so who else is out there? Celtics Hub takes a look at the pros and cons of bringing in Anthony Carter. On the pro side, he can pass:

Carter averaged 4.7 assists per game in just 23 minutes on the floor, and his assist/48 minute number ranked 13th among 78 point guards last season, according to ESPN.

On the con side, he can't hold onto the ball and he can't shoot.

Carter, by one measure, was the single most turnover prone guard in the league last season. That measure would be turnover rate, an estimate of the number of turnovers a player commits per 100 plays in which he tries to do something with the ball.

He shot 43 percent overall last season, including just 24 percent from deep, which suggests perhaps the one three he took per game was one too many. He's not great on long twos, either; his effective FG% on jump shots was only 40.8 percent-three points lower than Nene's mark.

Cheap backup points are going to have their share of warts, so you have to take that into account. But do you think Carter is worth picking up? If not, who's your first choice?

Also see: Buyers Market For Many NBA Free Agents - Tom Halzack

A Look at the Orlando Magic's Third-String Point Guard Options

Ben Q Rock — Tue, 04 Aug 2009 12:00:10 -0000

More photos » by Steve Yeater - AP

Browse more photos »

The Orlando Magic's search for a third-string point guard continues in earnest. The team must fill two roster spots to meet the league minimum of 13 players, and GM Otis Smith only has minimum deals at his disposal. Indeed, the Magic must now go bargain shopping after their early-summer spending spree, which included trading for Vince Carter's $16 million contract, matching Dallas' $5.8 million offer to Marcin Gortat, and splitting the mid-level exception on Brandon Bass and Matt Barnes.

C.J. Watson has the perfect combination of youth (he's 25), skills (a career 39% three-point shooter), and desire (he openly campaigned for the Magic to sign him), but the Magic's current financial state means they can't make him an offer Golden State wouldn't match. It's a bummer. Now, Smith has to dig deep. Remember, the Magic can only offer minimum deals. For comparison, the Magic used the $1.9 million bi-annual exception on Anthony Johnson last summer. Depending on the new point guard's NBA experience--minimum deals are based on years of NBA service--he could stand to make less than half of what Johnson does.

After consulting ESPN's list of this summer's free agents, I've come up with a handful of options, each with his own pros and cons. We'll take a look after the jump.

A brief note on methodology: first, I excluded D-League players, since Smith has never made a D-League call-up since taking over as Magic GM. (Orlando's last D-League call-ups were Desmond Penigar and Britton Johnsen, both in 2003/04). Second, I excluded Jason Hart and Mike Wilks, since their agent told the Orlando Sentinel the team has yet to express an interest in either of them.

I've listed these guys in alphabetical order. You can jump to a specific player's assessment by using the links below:

Carlos Arroyo:

The Good: Despite his less-than-stellar reputation in Orlando, which employed him from the 2006 trading deadline until last summer, Arroyo's a decent NBA point guard. He shot 34.5% on three-pointers in his only year under Stan Van Gundy, and is an above-average passer for a backup.
The Bad: He fell out of favor with Van Gundy late in the 2008 season, which resulted in his appearing in only 4 playoff games, for a total of 30 minutes. Losing the backup job to Keyon Dooling is nothing of which to be ashamed, but the abrupt manner in which it happened suggests that Van Gundy reached the end of his rope with Arroyo fairly quickly. Not much has changed, in terms of the offense, since Arroyo bolted for Israel last summer, which is to say the same challenges he faced two seasons ago are still in place.
The Verdict: Part of me thinks Arroyo would be a solid, safe choice. The other part of me recalls his at times poor decision-making--we're calling Hedo Turkoglu-esque levels of befuddlement here--and wonders if there's really a role for him in Orlando. After being top dog with Maccabi Tel Aviv for a year, would he happily settle into a backup role behind Jameer Nelson? And would Nelson react negatively to Arroyo's waiting in the wings? With Arroyo, there are more questions than answers, which leads me to believe Orlando would do well to look elsewhere.

Head back to the top.

Anthony Carter:

The Good: One of the best distributors and defenders on this list, even at age 34. He's heady and hardworking, and dished 4.7 assists to just 2 turnovers per game off Denver's bench last season. He'd also be willing to play for the minimum, which is the salary he earned last season.
The Bad: Expect to read the following sentiment often in this list - he's a bad three-point shooter, with a career conversion rate of 23.8%. About the best analagy I have for him is that he's like Anthony Johnson, without the range. And yes, it's totally reasonable for that sentence to turn you off a bit. We saw last season, particularly in the playoffs with Rafer Alston running the show, what happens to the Magic's offense when its point guard isn't a three-point threat. Carter, we think, would perhaps make the wiser play and drive the ball, rather than settle for the open trey--and thus play into the opposing defense's hands--as Alston frequently did.
The Verdict: There's something to be said for consistency, and Carter provides that. Orlando could do worse than to sign Carter, and all told he's probably the best option, poor shooting be darned.

Head back to the top.

Juan Dixon:

The Good: It's hard for me to get a read on him. His size (6'03", 164 pounds) indicates he's a point guard, but his career body of work suggests he's more of an off guard. Either way, about the best we can say for Dixon is that he's improved as a passer in each of the last two seasons, with assist rats of 23.3% and 22.7%. He's also a decent three-point shooter, with a career mark of 34.1%, and he shot 41.7% two years ago.
The Bad: Defense. A PER of 20.5 allowed to opposing point guards last season. As it is, his size makes him a liability on that end. Couple that with his declining athleticism--he'll turn 31 in training camp--and you have a small point guard who can't move laterally. A disaster defending the pick-and-roll.
The Verdict: Dixon doesn't bring much to the table, at least as far as the Magic are concerned. He was hardly good enough to take minutes away from Mike James in point guard-depleted Washington last season, which speaks volumes, given how bad James is. As I understand it, though, Dixon is a positive locker-room influence. So he has that in his favor too.

Head back to the top.

Royal Ivey:

The Good: Ivey's billed as a top-notch defensive specialist and a solid third-string point guard. He can also toss in the occasional three-pointer, with a career percentage of 33.6%, which is hardly great.
The Bad: It appears as though Ivey doesn't live up to his reputation. 82games says Ivey didn't even play 1% of Philadelphia's point guard minutes last season. Two years ago, with Milwaukee, he logged 22% of the Bucks' point guard minutes, and yielded a PER of 22.4 on 55.6% eFG%.
The Verdict: We know he isn't much of a passer. And if he's not a great shooter, and if he can't defend, then what does he bring to the table? Very little, which is why Ivey is little more than a last resort for many NBA teams.

Head back to the top.

Bobby Jackson:

The Good: Even after 12 seasons, Jackson has a little bit left in the tank. He averaged 7.5 points, 3.1 rebounds, and 2 assists per game for Sacramento last season. His toughness has earned him respect throughout the league. An added bonus: his defensive rebounding rate of 12.5% would help him ignite fast breaks by himself. For comparison, Mickael Pietrus posted a DRebRate of 10.9% last season. And after spending last season in 17-win Sacramento, I'm sure he'd leap at the chance to join a contending team.
The Bad: It is entirely possible that Jackson's production would plummet. He'll turn 37 in March, and his respectable three-point shooting (35.4% career) took a huge dive last season (30.5%). As I said with Ivey: if he's not shooting, passing, or able to play defense, then there probably isn't a place for him in today's NBA. Then again, even with his poor shooting last season, he posted a Player Efficiency Rating of 12.4. Lowest of his career? Yup. Better than that of Anthony Johnson or Courtney Lee? Also yup.
The Verdict: If Smith is convinced that BJax has another productive season left in him, he'd be a nice addition to the end of Orlando's bench. There's very little risk involved with any minimum-salary player--not to put too fine a point on it, but they're only earning the minimum--but especially little with Jackson, given his track record.

Head back to the top.

Damon Jones:

The Good: An absolute assassin from long-range, Jones has connected on 39% of his triples, and is just one season removed from canning 41.7%. The man was born to shoot. And to wear goofy suits, apparently, but that's another matter.
The Bad: Jones isn't much of a passer or a defender, which would appear to relegate him to situational duty. That's what a third-stringer does anyway, sure, but he's such a defensive liability that coach Stan Van Gundy could ill-afford to play him for more than a few minutes at a time before other teams start running plays designed specifically to attack him. Another issue is Jones' ego, which may not let him accept a third-string role, even for a contender. It's a shame, since Boston's Eddie House has proven that scoring point guards can help championship teams, even if they don't play great defense.
The Verdict: Assuming Van Gundy--who coached Jones in Miami during the 2004/2005 season--could keep Jones' ego in check, he'd be a decent signing. Not great, or even good, but decent. Orlando's offense needs three-point shooting, and Jones can provide that above all else.

Head back to the top.

Brevin Knight:

The Good: Well, he can pass the ball on offense, and the can take it away on defense. His Pure Point Rating--John Hollinger's improved assist-to-turnover ratio stat--of 6.5 last season would have led the Magic.
The Bad: A complete and utter offensive zero. Here's Hollinger on Knight's 2007/08 season:

Knight led the league in the percentage of his shots that were long twos for a second straight season, with his total increasing from 62.0 percent last year to 69.2 percent this year.

Looked at another way, Knight was one of 10 players to take fewer than 30 percent of his shots from inside. The other nine all made at least 96 3-pointers -- Knight didn't make any. Layups and 3-pointers are the game's most rewarding shots, and he couldn't generate either, which helps explain his brutal TS% (which ranked 66th out of the league's 71 point guards).

Knight also rarely created shots -- he had the second lowest usage rate at his position. And while he ranked second in the NBA in assist ratio, it was largely because he couldn't create a shot for himself.

And if he's lost yet another step? Yikes.
The Verdict: If I'm going to discount Jones for being a defensive liability, I must also discount Knight for his offensive shortcomings. The idea of having arguably the best distributing backup point guard in the NBA might entice Otis Smith, but I'm not sure it'd be enough to offset Knight's inability to score. It's not like he's going to get hot from long range one night. In 729 career games--more than 18000 minutes--he's made exactly 16 three-pointers. What it boils down to is a calculated risk. Do you bank on Knight's veteran savvy compensating for his diminished physical skills? Or do you play it safer with another pass-first, shoot-second guard?

Head back to the top.

Tyronn Lue:

The Good: He spent half of last season on the Magic's sidelines, as Orlando acquired him two days after Nelson suffered a season-ending shoulder injury. Zach McCann says he's a good influence in Orlando's locker room, a sentiment with which I agree. Additionally, the man can shoot: 39.1% on three-pointers for his career, and he's getting better with age, connecting on 45.3% in his last two seasons combined.
The Bad: The Magic must not have seen much in Lue, as they traded for Rafer Alston at the deadline, thus relegating Lue to the end of the bench on most nights.
The Verdict: Apparently, the Magic don't think as highly of Lue as I do, as all signs here point to the Magic's letting him go. It's a shame, because his three-point shooting and intelligent play make him a better third-stringer than most, in my estimation.

Head back to the top.

Ronald "Flip" Murray

The Good: Murray just turned in his best professional season, scoring 12.2 points per game in a reserve role for the Atlanta Hawks. He matched franchise two-guard Joe Johnson in three-point shooting (36%, a career-high) and exceeded him in overall field-goal shooting (44.7%, also a career-high). And although he wasn't much of a playmaker for Atlanta (14% assist rate), he's just one year removed from a 27.5% assist rate in a season he split between Indiana and Detroit. Hooray for versatility.
The Bad: His percentages have "fluke" written all over them. Plus, after a great season in which he earned $1.5 million, he might seek a raise.
The Verdict: For the right price, he might be a decent pickup. Orlando could use some scoring off its bench.

Head back to the top.

Mike Taylor:

The Good: He's young (23) and athletic (dunk of the year). That athleticism helps him get into the lane, where he takes 42% of his shots, converting at a 45.9% clip while also getting blocked 14% of the time.
The Bad: Absolutely, positively, cannot shoot unless it's a layup. 32.5% on threes, 69.1% at the foul line, and a 41.2% mark from the field overall. His turnover rate of 19.4% would have been the worst mark on last year's Magic team by far, worse even than Johnson's 16.4% figure. And his playmaking ability leaves much to be desired.
The Verdict: Were it not for his age, we probably wouldn't even be discussing him right now. There's a chance that, with the proper guidance, he could turn into a fairly decent point guard. However, Orlando is in win-now mode, and doesn't have the time, in my estimation, to try to bring its third-string point guard up to speed.

Head back to the top.

Jamaal Tinsley:

The Good: He's a tremendous passer, with a career Pure Point Rating of 5.9 (Jameer Nelson's is 3.5). If nothing else, he can run an offense. And he's nothing if not in shape, having sat out all of last season as the Indiana Pacers, his then-current employer, banished him from the team and shipped the contents of his locker to his Atlanta home. He and the Pacers recently reached a buyout agreement, allowing him to become an unrestricted free agent.
The Bad: Stop me if you've heard this before: he's a poor shooter, especially from three-point range. Although people who have seen him swear he's in great shape, sitting an entire year out, at age 31, means he might have some catching up to do in training camp no matter his destination.
The Verdict: If his character issues are indeed behind him--you'll recall his involvement in the 2004 Pacers/Pistons brawl, his participation in a barfight in downtown Indianapolis, and his being the target of a drive-by shooting (which in itself is not a crime)--if he's willing to play for the minimum, and if he's in shape, then he might be the best option on this list. You'll notice, though, the abundance of qualifiers attached to that statement. Smith is a risk-taker, sure, but he's yet to roll the dice by acquiring anyone with Tinsley's sort of reputation, which leads us to believe he won't start now. And he went on the record last year as saying Tinsley wasn't an option then.

Head back to the top.

Jacque Vaughn:

The Good: Vaughn is a tremendous passer with good offensive instincts, with a career assist rate of 24%, including 27.6% last year. And even at his advanced age--he'll turn 35 in February--he's a decent defender.
The Bad: He's coming off a season in which he shot 32% from the field in 292 total minutes. Even before that, he wasn't much of a scoring threat, as he's 8 years removed from his career-high scoring average of 6.6 points per game. The Spurs demoted him in favor of the rookie George Hill, which paid off fairly well.
The Verdict: He fits into the Carter mold as a pass-first, pass-second, shoot-third type. That San Antonio--an organization as worthy of emulation as any other in professional sports--essentially deemed him not worth playing much speaks volumes. Then again, he was last year what he'd be this year: an emergency point guard. He's not a great option for Orlando, but an okay one.

Head back to the top.

Jason Williams:

The Good: He was the starting point guard on the Miami Heat's 2006 championship team. And in spite of his reputation as a poor decision-maker--"too much French pastry," as Dick Vitale might say--he actually takes decent care of the ball.
The Bad: The man has practically nothing left to offer. I defer to Kelly Dwyer for more:

Don't try it, because I'm going to laugh in your face if you try to tell me he can make up for [his poor defense] on the other end, not when he's two years removed from shooting 38.4 percent from the floor. I'd love to see him try one more 45-foot bounce pass before riding off into the sunset, but the Knicks would be well-served to try the D-League first to round out their roster.

He's the most recognizable name on this list, sure. But if you didn't know it were him, but instead only knew that he'd turn 34 in November and that he can't shoot, you probably would dismiss him immediately.
The Verdict: With all that said, he's probably not the worst defender on this list, and is probably one of the better passers. Signing him to be the third-stringer wouldn't be an utter disaster, I don't think, but he's not the most attractive option.

Head back to the top.

It's become readily apparent that Smith won't find a perfect candidate. None of these guys is a home-run, even at a minimum salary. The ones who can shoot don't pass, the ones who can pass can't shoot, and very few of them play defense. Not a great situation, sure. Then again, Orlando's done quite well for itself this summer, and it's hardly the only team looking for point guard help. All Otis needs to do is to sign the one he feels is the best possible fit to a minimum deal. Then he can move on to that 14th roster spot, likely a big man, and call it a summer.

Still waiting on that point guard ...

Nate Timmons — Thu, 23 Jul 2009 19:25:01 -0000

The title above is a homage to my days working in restaurants ... "Still waiting on that meatloaf Mark!" And we Nuggets fans are still waiting on that third point guard. Who will it be? Check the jump for more maddening discussion.

My gut (which seems to be growing over the years) tells me that Anthony Carter will be brought back ... I'm about 73.1% sure of it, for those of you that are really paying attention later on ... that's the same percentage as A.C. from the foul line last season. I discussed all the plusses and minuses to bringing A.C. back earlier in the month.

The reason I bring this back up now is because the list of potential available point guards is shrinking by the day.

The List:

Stephon Marbury ... no thanks.
Jason Hart ... there could be worse options (see Marbury, Stephon)
C.J. Watson ... bringing in the young kid makes no sense with Ty Lawson aboard, plus he rumored to be heading to Orlando.
Ramon Sessions ... again we run into the Ty Lawson being the young guy thing and even if Denver offered this restricted free agent a deal it'd be laughed off the table because Sessions is looking for the full MLE and may get it from the Knicks.
Nate Robinson ... an even smaller version of Lawson!
Brevin Knight ... I'm willing to bet that I could beat him at H.O.R.S.E. at least twice.
Jacque Vaughn ... if he's still even alive I demand proof.
Tyronn Lue ... maybe ... if I'm running a lottery team.

Aside from Watson, Sessions, and Robinson (whom Denver can't sign if they want to develop Lawson) the list above looks about as appetizing as Rocky Mountain Oysters. The way I see it there are really only two options for the Nuggets:

Re-sign Anthony Carter and let him battle for minutes with Lawson.
Sign free agent and former Nugget Bobby Jackson.

To quickly reiterate ... Carter will bring you fairly solid defense, the willingness to share the ball and get his teammates involved, and the ability to perfectly inbound the ball from out of bounds. (too soon?)

But there will probably be a sneaking suspicion from the Denver fans about the return of A.C. as reader Running Donut pointed out nicely the other day:

Running Donut: "Should AC return, I expect he would want to be given the same role as last season. Depending on Ty Lawson's performance, that may be nearly impossible. This combined with GK's affinity for Carter is very troubling to me. Personally, I see the potential for a dangerous conflict of interest that could be a dividing force within the team and organization."

(Running Donut ... I know you'll probably read this, so, please inform us on the handle name if you want.)

These same fears have crept into my head as well, so I feel safe assuming that the above is a shared feeling across Nuggets Nation. If A.C. is brought back ... how much will that hurt the benefits that Ty Lawson may bring?

George Karl will be asked to balance this out and it's really not a very easy task ... at least not to an idiot like me!

The entire A.C. dilemma feels like getting off crutches for the first time. You know your injury may be healed, but if you give up your aide too soon you may fall flat on your face. On the other hand, you are continuing to weaken your new leg/ankle/knee by using the aide of a crutch for too long.

Though the question of "When to give up the crutches?" is probably better asked next season when we see how Lawson performs in the league ... it's not a bad one to consider now. Whomever Denver elects to bring in knows they are probably in a lame duck position. The guy Denver signs will almost surely get a one-year deal and know that at some point the minutes may not be there as soon as mid-season if Lawson excels. So, if there is a multi-year offer out there then one must consider the age old wacky NBA question ... winning or money?

It's a great thing when you can get both, but at least in this situation it may not work that way as Denver is lacking in the money department.

And that brings me to Bobby Jackson. In order for him to come back to Denver he'd have to be willing to take a huge pay cut from $6.4 million last season to the minimum of $1.3 million this season (unless Denver offered up the bi-annual exception of $1.99 million.)

The reason I'm looking at Jackson is simple ... Denver may require some scoring off the bench if Linas Kleiza does not return to the team ... heck, even if L.K. is back it wouldn't hurt to adding a little scoring pop to the bench. Jackson has played the role of 6th Man basically his entire career. The most games he has ever started is 53 during his rookie season, ironically, with the Denver Nuggets in the 1997-98 tilt.

B-Jax knows how to score the ball. Entering his 13th season he has averaged double-digit scoring seven times, topping out at 15.2 point per game with the Sacramento Kings in the 2002-03 season. Anthony Carter's career mark was set with Denver in the 2007-08 season when he started 67 games (played in 70) and averaged 7.8 points per game. Let's dive into a head-to-head look at Carter and Jackson from last season:

	Anthony Carter	Bobby Jackson
Age	34	36 turns 37 in March
Height	6'2''	6'1''
Weight	195 lbs.	185 lbs.
2008-09
Games	78	71
Minutes	22.9	20.9
FG%	43.3% (167-386)	39% (193-485)
3-pt%	23.9% (21-88)	30.5% (60-197)
FT%	73.1% (57-78)	85.1% (86-101)
Assists	4.7	2
Turnovers	1.99	0.93
Steals	1.23	0.87
Points	5.3 ppg	7.5 ppg

Again, I see the move of inking Jackson over Carter as one that would allow Denver's bench more offensive punch. Carter is known as a great effort guy and works his ass off on defense. But if Lawson can shoulder some of the load and become a capable defender then Jackson may be called upon to help stretch the floor, a career 35.4% three-point shooter, and give the Nuggets a reliable scoring guard off the bench when needed.

When Billups was not on the floor the Nuggets offense struggled to find the same cohesiveness that old #7 brought. The second unit was hindered by Carter's lack of ability to create his own shot when called upon to do so. Jackson is at the point in his career where he doesn't have a lot of time left to chase the title. I love upgrading the bench with his scoring and he's not that much of an upgrade over A.C. to be a detriment to Lawson.

If Jackson were to sign ... it'd at least finally quiet the chatter around Nuggets Nation as to whom the third point guard will be.

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