SB Nation - Carl Landry

Tip-In: Toronto Raptors Post Game Report - A Little Athleticism Goes a Long Way

Raptors HQ - Vicious D — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 12:46:47 -0000

More photos » by Ron Turenne - NBAE/Getty Images

The HQ has loved Sonny Weems for a while, and so should you. Here's just one example of why.

Defeating one of the better teams in the Western Conference, the Toronto Raptors snapped their two game losing streak. Vicious D talks about the win and gives us a look at the game that was.

The fans wanted Jarrett Jack to start. With Jose Calderon out, they got what they wanted.

The fans wanted more athleticism on the floor, especially with regards to Sonny Weems. With fewer options as Jarrett Jack would need to play a lot of minutes at the point, the fans indeed got more Weems as well.

The fans wanted "the Legend" to get some burn. With the Rockets having few lumbering big men, Pops Mensah-Bonsu came into the game and showed the Rockets what they had let go.

Now that's not to say that every single opinion of every fan should be taken as the truth, but there's a reason why the Toronto Raptors took down a very capable Houston Rockets team 101-88 for their first Sunday win of the season. Jay Triano deserves quite a bit of credit for finally giving some burn to players we've clamored for all season, and Triano even went so far to start the second quarter without a single starter on the floor. As a result, the Raps were covering each other on defense, racking up nine blocks for the entire game. It was impressive seeing both Pops Mensah-Bonsu and Amir Johnson help each other out of jams with their tenacious defense. Both energized the crowd throughout the game with their tenacity and grit to get rebounds and to protect the Raptors' paint.

On the other end of the court, Sonny Weems gave the Raptors a fairly impressive boost from the bench. Scoring with drives and his jump shot, Weems managed to put up 11 points off the pine, a nice boost during the times when the Raptors offense stalled. Chris Bosh put in a fairly quiet 27 points leading all scorers, but the best player on the court yesterday had to be Jarrett Jack. Taking the ball inside and out, distributing effectively to his teammates, sticking his nose into the crowd to get rebounds, almost sitting on players in order to "defend" them, and even coming to the defense of teammates, Jack showed the heart that was sorely needed in the absence of Jose Calderon.

Sticking up for DeMar DeRozan after Trevor Ariza took a swing at the rookie, Jarrett Jack immediately stepped into Ariza and proceeded to defend the rook. All over the ACC, everyone was applauding the move as the Raptors have been too soft and too slow in the past to take such actions. It is this kind of heart that Jack has shown that has made him another leader in this team so far in this young season, something again, that this team sorely needs.

On the Rocket's end, you never really felt that the Raptors had complete control of the game as Houston managed to keep hanging around. And a late run brought Toronto's lead down to single digits. However with Ariza away from the game, the Raptors kept defensive pressure on the Rockets perimeter while making some key baskets down the stretch. Carl Landry and Luis Scola were both having their way in the paint, but beyond that, Houston just didn't get that many opportunities, especially on the break. Other than Aaron Brooks, who had 20 points, the rest of the Rockets team couldn't crack the 10 point plateau. The fatigue argument could be made for Houston but you still have to hand it to Toronto's defense on the afternoon.

With the next two games being their annual back-to-back trip to Miami and Orlando, the Dinos will need to sustain the effort that they put into yesterday's game. We've already seen that this Raptors team can overcome their defensive stigma if they only work on it a little and if the right personnel are given a chance. We are almost halfway through December and it's time that Jay Triano sticks with what works. Certain players have consistently shown a propensity to change the tempo of the game even when the starters sometimes have shown a lack of initiative.

So enough with the "set line-ups."

As the team draws near the trimester mark of the season, It's time they go with what works best in terms of playing time, even if this means injuring a few egos along the way.

After all, Bryan Colangelo talked about 50 wins to start the season.

With yesterday being only win number 11, this team still has a long ways to go but provided they can get near that 50 mark, I'm pretty sure both management and the fans won't care what line-ups help reach that plateau.

Game 23 Recap: Ariza, Rockets can't buy a basket, fall to Raptors 111-88

Tom Martin — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 00:36:25 -0000

More photos » by Frank Gunn - AP

2 days ago: Toronto Raptors forward Chris Bosh, right, and Houston Rockets forward Luis Scola chase down a loose ball during second-half NBA basketball game action in Toronto on Sunday, Dec. 13, 2009. Bosh scored 27 points as the Raptors won 101-88. (AP Photo/The Canadian Press,Frank Gunn)

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You know what's odd? People are going to credit Toronto's defense with this win. But isn't it funny that a team that shoots 36% from the field can still manage eighty-eight points? Though the Raptors may have improved their defense over the last couple of games, they only forced ten turnovers, and the Rockets were able to put up 87 shots, many of which were decidedly open. Once Houston finally started making the open shots, they were too far behind to make any sort of comeback.

Looking at the stat sheet, the Rockets' three point shooting, a paltry thirteen percent, screams out like its purely responsible for the terrible offensive output. But what you won't see are the numerous misses from point-blank range. Chuck Hayes has struggled recently around the rim, after getting off to a fantastic start in October and November, and folks like Ariza and Kyle Lowry missed layups as well. Like I said, it wasn't necessarily Toronto's defense that stifled us; we just missed shots that teams have to make to win games.

Once again, however, the blame cannot be placed on the shoulders of Carl Landry, who has been simply stunning. I don't care what Jet Terry is doing in Dallas; Landry's impact on our team off the bench has been much greater than Terry's in Dallas. Jonathan Feigen noted yesterday that Landry is second in the league in fourth-quarter scoring, at 6.6 points per game. Ahead of him on the list is Dwyane Wade. Behind him on the list is LeBron James. Go figure.

Even more amazing is the fact that Landry has been receiving additional attention over the last few games, and has still managed some of his best scoring outputs on the season. The Raptors piled up the paint today in an attempt to stop him, and he still collected 25 points to go with six offensive rebounds. If only the other Rockets could have helped him out by knocking down the open shots that they were given, then we may have been able to pull off one of those Philadelphia comebacks. If it were to happen against anyone, it would be Toronto.

That's all I've got for today. The only good news from this is that the loss wasn't a product of poor effort, but rather of poor shooting. You make some, you miss some - that's how basketball goes. However, if the Rockets want to continue their winning ways, guys like Chase Budinger, Dave Andersen, and Ariza had better start hitting those open shots more often.

Oh, and about that Ariza forearm? Whatever. He'll probably miss one game at the most. He's got to be frustrated with himself. Perhaps he will use it as motivation.

Raptors HQ

Boxscore

Raptors Rapid Recap - Toronto 101 - Houston 88

RaptorsHQ - Franchise — Sun, 13 Dec 2009 20:40:12 -0000

-Best game of the year so far by the Toronto Raptors? It's quite possible as Toronto pulled off a surprising win this afternoon against a tough Houston squad using some smothering defense.

-How good was the D? The Raps held the Rockets to only 88 points on 37 per cent shooting. Houston helped matters by having an atrocious shooting day from downtown (13 per cent) and outside of the interior of Carl Landry and Luis Scola (46 of the team's 88 points), didn't get much of a boost from their perimeter players.

-In fact, in a very strange incident, wing Trevor Ariza was tossed in the third quarter for throwing an elbow at the back of DeMar DeRozan's head. From the replays, it was hard to tell if it was intentional or simply a reactionary play after DeRozan stole the ball from him and started the fast break. It wouldn't be surprising though to see a suspension come from Ariza's actions.

-But back to Toronto here. Chris Bosh led the way again with 27 points but he finally got some great balance on O from the rest of his teammates. Hedo Turkoglu busted out of his slump with 23 points, Andrea Bargnani had an efficient 14 points and 7 rebounds, and Sonny Weems even chipped in 11 off the pine.

-The player of the game though was Jarrett Jack, who was masterful at both ends of the court finishing with 17 points, 8 rebounds and 8 assists. He led the charge in terms of intensity and gave the team a huge boost of grit and toughness enabling them to hold the lead for the game's duration.

-The other person on the Raps who deserves major recognition is Jay Triano. Triano finally saw the light in regards to playing TO's most effective players and it resulted more minutes for the likes of Weems and Mensah-Bonsu, and less for players like Belinelli and Wright (who didn't get off the pine.)

-We'll break down this win further in the morning but safe to say it was a biggie. Toronto desperately needed to get a W before heading to Miami and Orlando and now have some momentum going into those two tough matches.

3 In the Key: Toronto Raptors Game Day Preview vs. Houston

Raptors HQ - Vicious D — Sun, 13 Dec 2009 14:47:24 -0000

More photos » by Chris Young - AP

The Raptors are going to need a lot of this kind of play if they hope to keep pace with an extremely balanced Rockets team.

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Vicious D looks at today's game and is quite envious of the Houston Rockets who are extremely good despite not having their two best players. The Raptors will be in it tough today if they don't play like a team.

Oh hey.

If the last two Raptors games gave you a migraine, I don't blame you. I'm starting to think I'm a sadist as this will be the third game that I'll be attending in this young year. In all honesty, I usually make it a rule to go to games in the second half of the season after the Christmas break, just to make sure the team has started to hit their stride. The Raptors, after having a flash of "let's play defense" for two games against weaker opponents, have now lost against two fairly good teams who have exposed the Raptors' "improved defense" for what it is: a paper tiger.

Now you might say, "ok, the Raptors were down Jose Calderon and Andrea Bargnani as both weren't 100%". Ok, but our opponents today are the Houston Rockets. They're a team that has been arguably down at least one of their two best players for what seems like an eternity, and yet, they remain competitive, focused to win, and have depth in spades.

So much so that they could even cast off Pops Mensah-Bonsu without even batting an eye.

However, it's not like we were all gun-ho about all the moves that were made. It was back in the middle of the summer when most of the Raptors' Nation was in awe of Colangelo's Great Canadian Raptors Makeover Part Deux. Bryan Colangelo decided to let Pops walk, go for Hedo Turkoglu, fill his rosters with a coveted European and signed Jarrett Jack. At this point, while most of the Raptors nation was marveling at the moves, Franchise and Howland were both grumbling. We had one of our Raptors HQ meetings where I posed the situation and question:

Bryan Colangelo for all his flaws, has always been a good GM because he's left himself flexibility to get out from players that have underperformed. He's always seemed to have expiring contracts that he could trade away and get something back for. Now let's say this team is merely good at best, and at worst, terrible. Who can he trade away and change? Besides Chris Bosh, just about everyone is locked up for the next 3-4 years at least. That's starting and backup point guard, starting small forward, starting center. That doesn't exactly allow you make changes if you need to.

And so here we are, a team that will need to play extremely hard just to get a mediocre defensive effort. A team that has to rely on a high powered offense, which by the way, isn't all that high powered having lost in every good ol' fashioned shootout with just about every team out there this young season.

Yup, that almost just screams at Chris Bosh to stay.

But back to Houston. The Rockets are a team that have managed to stay relatively consistent thanks to some veteran leaders, some smart drafting, and keeping their roster full of athletes who have good basketball IQ. In fact, you could even argue that the Rockets are a much more dangerous team without T-Mac than with. Coming into today's game having won two in a row, having beaten both L.A. and Cleveland, the Rockets are a team that wins thanks to true balance throughout their roster. They are the well-oiled machine to the Raptors' own greasy mess, so our boys will have a tough time. To keep things competitive so that we can see a rare Sunday win, the Raptors will need to:

1) Minimalize the Loss of Calderon
Everyone's taken shots at the Spaniard this year. I've always defended Calderon over the years for his abilities, and he's been one of the players on this team who actually stands up for himself and his team. Those who wanted Jarrett Jack to start will now have a healthy dose of Jack for a while. The question is just how the bench will respond. We've long proposed to have a lot more Belinelli instead of Banks since he's comfortable with the ball and quick enough to defend against most point guards, but the trickle down effect should also mean that Sonny Weems will get more play time.

On the other hand, a lot of people have mentioned that this will maybe give Turkoglu more minutes handling the ball, but I'm not convinced that the reason the Turk has struggled has been because he doesn't have the ball enough. In any case, the Raptors have lost a leader, a guy who has been a fairly good shooter, and one of the hearts of this edition of the Raptors.

How the Raptors will overcome that will need to start today.

2) Team Play
The only way the Raptors will play good defense against the Rockets is if they communicate and act like a team. One of the reasons for the Rockets' success is that different players have stepped up over the course of the season to make big plays. The tough part about playing a team like the Rockets is that anyone can be a potential threat. So the Raptors will need to be organized on defense, they'll need players to have personal responsibility while they're defending their man, and they'll need to communicate. Otherwise, the Rockets will find that one or two weak spots and the whole defensive scheme will fall apart.

3) No Sleep For the Bench
In Friday's game against Philadelphia, the Rockets had six players in double figures. Their top scorer? Carl Landry off the bench. The Rockets are a team that are unabashed about playing their bench. With players who can get double digit nights when needed, and consistent rebounding that doesn't seem to drop off, the Rockets' bench has always seemed to be an X-Factor. Kyle Lowry and Chase Budinger are both ready to come in and steady the shop along with Landry when the starters aren't getting it done. It's allowed this Rocket team to weather storms and pull out some close victories.

Outside of last Saturday's win, the Raptors have lost on every single weekend game so far this season. This win won't be easy to come by, especially since the Raptors will need to make adjustments to compensate for the injured Calderon. But the Raptors have traditionally been fairly strong against the Rockets at home. Here's hoping the Raptors figure it out and manage to pull out a much needed quality win.

Thoughts on Rockets 96 - 76ers 91 (Aka Game Recap)

Xiane — Sat, 12 Dec 2009 05:02:07 -0000

More photos » by Matt Slocum - AP

Houston Rockets' Tracy McGrady is proud to represent the nation of China in the 2009-2010 NBA All-Star Game. (AP Photo/Matt Slocum)

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This game was viewed through the prism of an ill child (nothing serious), so my thoughts are more fragmented that usual. I'll rely more on that last resort of scoundrels, statistics.

When one looks at the 76er starting lineup, it is pretty impressive:

Elton Brand, Andre Iguodala, Allen Iverson, Samuel Dalembert, Thaddeus Young.

That's a lot of talent, a ton of athletic ability. Elton Brand has in the past, been one of the finest players in the NBA at his position. Iguodala has one of the more well-rounded, athletic and interesting games in the NBA. Iverson, well, he's raging at the dying of the light, at any rate, and he looks to have something left. Yet the Sixers have now lost 12 straight games. Why? I (imagine I) hear you asking. Two words: The Bench.

Players seeing minutes from the Philly bench tonight include: Willie Green (25), Jason Kapono (17), Jrue Holliday (8), Jason Smith (3), Primoz Breszec (5).

Total points in 58 out of 240 possible player minutes? Six. I repeat. S-I-X.

Let's compare that to the Rocket's bench, total points: 46 in 84 player minutes. So Philly's bench scored roughly one point every 9.40 minutes. The Rockets bench scored a point every 1.5 minutes.

This is an object lesson in bench construction (and another reason why "WE © or Ω or √ MOREY" Guess what? No little "heart" thingy.). Houston, with 40% of an NBA payroll, has a bench that, frankly, buried Philly's in this contest.

That is not how the game started. Phily jumped on Houston early, prompting fears of the 76ers once again being a team that's pure poison for the Rockets, no matter how bad they look against the rest of the league. Then the benches matched up, and the Rockets closed a Philly lead that stood at 10 after the first quarter to 3 points at the half.

When outside observers look at the Rockets, I think they often make the mistake of looking at the starting lineup and saying "That's not a high caliber NBA lineup." Well, maybe not (though I disagree). But to understand the Rockets, you have to go 9-10 deep. You could start the Rocket's second unit and give up very little, overall.

The players aren't exactly comparable, with some offering more offense, some defense, so let's look at Win Shares so far in 2009-2010. The typical Rocket starting lineup boasts a 7WS total at this point. The second unit (of 4 players) is contributing 5WS - add an average rating of one starter from the first team and you get a total of 6.4WS for the second unit (as we've yet to see much of Taylor thus far). Point being, the Rockets give up little, or nothing, switching out almost their entire lineup. This, I submit, is a powerful, and under-appreciated, advantage.

Every Philly starter played 34 minutes or more, with the exception of Dalembert, who played 29. Brand logged 43, sitting down 5 minutes of the contest, and Iguodala saw 40. Only Ariza came close to that, going 42.

Notes:

I'm very happy we didn't once again drop a game to the 76ers as we have done so frequently in the past. We need to win every single game against floundering opponents. We're going to struggle to hit .500 against the top teams, so we need to clean up on games against below .500 teams.

Iverson gave young Kyle Lowry and Aaron Brooks a lesson in drawing fouls and shooting FTs. Lowry is good at it, but AI is the past master, and he put on a "weak contact FT shooting" clinic in the 4th.

Carl Landry is one of the most valuable players in the NBA on a salary/production basis. I'm now surprised when a Landry shot doesn't go in, and the reasons why not usually break down to: uncalled foul on Carl, the shot was a bit out of his range. That's it.

Commenting on the Tracy McGrady All-Star Game "controversy": what would happen if TMac's first 2009-2010 game appearance was in the NBA ASG? Could the Rocket's keep him out of it, if he hadn't played for them to that point, but wanted to play in the ASG?

The Lakers are going for their 11^th straight win tonight. Some Laker apologists have made an interesting argument that LA having 17 of 21 appearances at home to start the year isn't much of an advantage. After their recent run, can this assertion be supported? We'll have to see the record they compile when they actually do leave LA for more than 48 hours at a time to know more.

You know, every time I see those weird Charlie Sheen/Michael Jordan "Haynes Undergarments" ads I think a couple of things:

1. These are terrible ads. Are there two more unlikable pitch men than Pathetic Sheen, and Arrogant Michael Jordan, blowing him off? Who would those pitchmen be?

2. I always imagine Charlie Sheen is the head scout, or cap guru, for the Bobcats. He's trying to get Jordan to pay attention to some mundane franchise detail, like player signings, or budget, and MJ just drives away, late to a tee time.

Surprisingly, the Rockets are not playing a back-to-back on the road Saturday night. Next game vs Toronto in that mysterious and far-away land known as Canada.

Game 21 Preview: Houston Rockets vs. Cleveland Cavaliers - 12/09/2009 7:30PM CST

UofTOrange — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 18:24:59 -0000

Point Guard
Aaron Brooks - A 5 to 3 Assist to Turnover ratio has to be fixed, but that is to be expected when he's being asked to be the team leader for the first time in his career. Brooks had 3 solid games before a tough game against a team he typically torches in Portland. He'll bounce back tonight as Mo Williams isn't big enough to body him off of his shot.
vs.
Mo Williams - Williams is not the assists man that I thought he would become playing with LeBron. A lot of that has to do with James wanting the ball in his hands to create (who could blame him given his results). He's doing everything on the court well, however. Solid shooter (great 3 point shooter), and is automatic from the free throw line. Toss in 1.48 steals a night and you have the makings of a very good point guard for the Cavs.
Edge: Even

Shooting Guard
Trevor Ariza - He's shooting too much, but therein lies the problem, because he's doing exactly what he is being asked by Rick Adelman to do. The Rockets have said all along that they want to see what they have in Ariza so they are going to force this one him. It's a work in progress, but you can see him making a little better decisions with how he sets up for his shot every night. I do wish that he would never, ever shoot a three without being set. I think I've seen exactly one of those go in all season.
vs.
Anthony Parker - In complete honesty I had no idea that Parker was with the Cavs. I've even watched a couple of their games this year. Daniel Gibson is statistically having the best season shooting of his career (save from the free throw line on only 70 attempts), so I guess the Cavs just like having him come off the bench.
Edge: Rockets

Small Forward
Shane Battier - It would be crazy to expect another defensive performance by Shane like he had last year against LeBron, or would it? Did LeBron learn from last year? Because I guarantee you Battier studied the film and saw what he did differently the rest of the season and what he's done different this year.
vs.
LeBron James- When his team has an off night it is rarely due to James not playing well. He's shotting 51% from the field this year, by far a career high. Add that to his career high 8.2 assists per game and 7 rebounds and the man could legitimately challenge the triple double average in another 2 seasons. All in all, I'm finally saying it, he's better than Kobe (but not by very much).
Edge: Cavaliers

Power Forward
Luis Scola - With Carl Landry seemingly scoring 20 a night, it has been lost how good Scola has been on the defensive end as well as fitting in perfectly on the offensive end. He scores when he gets the ball and is averaging 9.2 rebounds a game. If anyone doesn't know why Landry doesn't start, there you go. I've overestimated Scola's scoring this year, but that is more due to the way he is used in the offense. For a guy that shots a lot of elbow jumpers, 51% shooting is exceptionally good.
vs.
JJ Hickson- Hickson was a strong player at NC State and continues to show why the Cavs were high on him. He still has a long way to go, but 56.85 shooting is going to keep him on the court in a starters role.
Edge: Rockets

Center
Chuck Hayes - Chuck has been shooting the ball exceptionally poorly, even for him as of late. The Rockets have to have him hit the majority of his 3-5 shots to beat a team like the Cavs. They simply cannot be wasted possessions. His defense is still very good. There is one problem...
vs.
Shaquille O'Neal - is one of the few players in the league that Chuck simply cannot guard without Shaq having an off game on his own. If O'Neal is being his typical last 2 seasons self, there is nothing Hayes can do. If he is being his 2002 self Shaq could score 100. That's not a knock on Chuck, he's a great defender, not all matchups are going to go his way though.
Edge: Cavaliers

Injuries/Suspensions
Houston Rockets
OUT - Tracy McGrady, well I don't know if he's still hurt, just that he isn't playing
Cleveland Cavaliers
DTD - Jamario Moon

My Prediction: Cavaliers win by 7, the Rockets simply are not the defensive team they were the last two years

Maybe the Rockets DO Have a Star.

Only_A_Lad — Sun, 06 Dec 2009 22:38:39 -0000

More photos » by Chris Pizzello - AP

No, it's not this guy (AP Photo/Chris Pizzello).

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To put it simply, I think I'm done with the Texans for the year. I'll tune back in the spring to see who gets drafted, but I'm not watching this shit anymore this season. Unfortunately, the Astros are mired in suck and the Rockets' stars are injured. Not a lot to look forward to over the next few months, Houston sports-wise.

Well, I think the Rockets' start to the season has refuted a lot of that sentiment, but, as Dave is quick to note, the Rockets don't have a star on the roster right now, and the Rockets, while good, are not a team that can expect to go far in the playoffs. Now, I think the "star" epithet is largely meaningless, mostly just referring to whoever gets on ESPN highlights a lot, but it has some meaning. Typically, when people say "star," they mean someone who scores a lot. If we break this down a little further, it can be taken to mean "a player who uses a lot of possessions and converts them efficiently." There's no statistical "line" that will delineate "stars" from "great role-player," but I think we can agree that stars will show similar statistics, right?

So let's look at some numbers. Here are the statistical lines (courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com) of three NBA Power Forwards, two of whom are widely considered to be "stars" on some level. First, here are the per-36 rates:

Player A has a clear advantage in scoring over B (and, to a lesser extent, C), and smaller advantages in rebounding and blocks. However, he (as well as C) is much more turnover prone than B, and is nowhere near as skilled of a passer.

Personally, I never really liked per-minute stats. Teams play at wildly divergent paces. Still, per-minute stats capture some of the "star" qualities in a player - the ability to take a lot of shots, for instance. But let's look at per-possession stats:

Things start to look a little different. Players A and C are using similar portions of their teams' possessions, they have similar assist numbers, and are fairly close in effective Field Goal percentage and blocks. B's rebounding looks much better, his advantage in passing looks even more solid, and he is obviously the least turnover-prone. But A has the best shooting numbers, and his rapid, efficient scoring leads to massive advantages in compiled metrics like PER and O-Rating. And, by Win Shares, he has contributed the most wins in 19 games.

In case you haven't guessed by now, Carl Landry is A. LaMarcus Aldridge is B, and Amare Stoudemire is C.

First,, some caveats:

Carl Landry's numbers come as the team's go-to scorer on the second unit. Still, he plays a good number of his minutes against the other team's starters.
Amare is having a down year, and while certainly not career-lows, these numbers reflect a season that is probably Amare's worst since 2002-2003.
This isn't a particularly great season for LaMarcus, either, and his offensive efficiency has declined a bit from last year. But he's doing better on defense, so maybe it balances out a bit.
I personally don't think Aldridge is a "star," but people were talking about him as an "all-star level" player during the offseason, and this is more about appellation than actual production.

Okay, with all that said, we need to ask two questions. First, do Carl's numbers in themselves warrant the star title? Second, do similar levels of production as other "stars" warrant that title?

I don't really have the answers to those questions. I ask you to provide them in the comments section. But I will say this:

Carl isn't a "go-to" scorer at the end of games (though I think this is an overrated quality). But I have seen him practically will the Rockets towards victory. He is a great player on the offensive glass, and he just doesn't seem to miss around the basket anymore. And, in a testament to practice which would impress even Yao, Landry has raised his sub-70% free throw shooting in college and his rookie season to 88% this season. Most importantly, he has been able to drastically increase his usage rate without any decrease in efficiency (this is related to the free-throw shooting). He has developed some good moves in the post, as well as a nice little turnaround jumper. The pick-and-roll with Landry and Brooks/Lowry has become something of a go-to play for the Rockets, even late in the game, and Landry is honestly the person I most trust with the ball at this point (turnover rates be damned). He accomplishes these numbers without an all-star level point guard like Nash or a floor-spacing 2-guard like Roy.

And, if Amare and Aldridge qualify as stars this year, then we should consider Landry for the title, as well.

Thoughts on Rockets 89 - Trailblazers 90

Xiane — Sun, 06 Dec 2009 06:15:47 -0000

More photos » by Greg Wahl-Stephens - AP

A sight that is sadly all-too-familiar in Portland, Ore., Saturday, Dec. 5, 2009. (AP Photo/Greg Wahl-Stephens)

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First, my sympathies go out to Greg Oden, the Trailblazers and their fans. I happened to change over briefly from the UT v Nebraska game, just in time to see Oden hurt his knee in a particularly grisly way. In my preview I had made jokes about Oden/Odin and how he was starting to become a basketball god.

I feel a bit bad about that now, but it was well meant. It looked like Oden had gotten his feet under him, and was starting to fulfill his potential. Sadly that is not to be for another season at least.

In my preview I also said: "Unless a raven whispers something in our ear...it is not given for us to know what may transpire." So I guess the moral is don't ever name-check Norse gods unless you want something weird, tragic and painful to happen.

Some people compare Oden to Yao, but I'd point out that Yao has played literally hundreds more pro basketball games.

The Rockets lost the game on yet another Brandon Roy last second miracle shot. Does he do this to anyone else or just save it for the Rockets? The Blazers, on the other hand, lost Greg Oden for the year. I'd say the Blazer's loss was worse.

Houston got beaten by one, on the road in one of the toughest places to play, by a team rallying around its superstar after a terrible event. Let's not make a meal of this one. I honestly think we win this one if Oden doesn't get hurt.

Andre Miller did what he can often do - fool you into thinking he's a great player. He's not, but he saved Portland's bacon in the 3^rd when the Rockets looked like running away with the game.

Brandon Roy apparently woke up and realized he's a top 3 SG, and edged Carl Landry in a duel for the 4^th quarter and the game. I'm curious as to whether or not Roy can do that on the road, away from the amazing Rose Garden crowd.

It's a shame that such an amazing effort from Scola and Landry was wasted tonight. Despite the terrible events in Portland, we need every win we can get, and this was a winnable game.

Well, a couple of nights off, then we meet LeBron and the Bronettes in Houston.

PS - What the hell was going on at the end of UT v Nebraska? Anyone?

Bittersweet sentiments at Blazer's Edge.

Rockets vs Trailblazers Game Preview

Xiane — Sun, 06 Dec 2009 01:43:34 -0000

We are playing the Portland Trailblazers. We have always played the Portland Trailblazers. We have always been at war with Oceania.

Well, not quite. But if there's one team we've seen a lot of lately, it is Portland. And overall this is a good thing, because the Blazers are an entertaining team to watch, the fans at Blazer's Edge are generally bright and reasonable, and they aren't the Lakers (whom we have also seen a lot of lately).

Both teams come into tonight's matchup with fairly similar records, but quite likely, very different feelings about those records. Rockets fans seem to be reasonably pleased with what the Rockets have achieved with their star-deprived roster. Trailblazer fans? Not so much, I think.

There are no panicked Blazer fans running shrieking through the firs yet, but it might not be far off if Portland drops a 4^th consecutive game. Thus far, instead of consolidating their gains of the past two seasons, and stepping up to contention, Portland seems to be struggling to find consistency.

I can't say I'm surprised that the addition of Andre Miller has not stabilized their PG situation, but instead made it, somehow, worse. Miller just seems to have that effect, despite there being nothing essentially wrong with his game. Miller is presumably on the trading block now, which given his summer signing, is not a ringing endorsement. Perhaps if Miller is traded Bayless might get a chance, but I doubt it.

The real story thus far is the continued development of Greg Oden, a concept not unlike that of process theology. Greg Oden is not omniscient, omnipotent, omnipresent, polyamorous. But Greg Oden is becoming omniscient, omnipotent, etc, etc. It is the faith of the believers that makes this process true.

Of course, for a center to be truly effective, the offense needs to run through him. This is a concept Portland has thus far failed to grasp. Tonight would be a poor night for them to start, and if the drama in PDX's frontcourt continues to steer the ship, then we have little worry in that direction. Even so, Oden has been highly effective cleaning up garbage and playing D. Chuck Hayes will have his hands full. We'll see if David Andersen can draw Oden out of the paint, or if he will be trampled on defense.

Portland has, it is true, suffered from some injuries, but this is where their vaunted depth should shine. Meanwhile, we'll continue to be scrappy, stroppy, gritty and hustleful and pray it sees us through yet again. That or sound, unselfish, basketball.

Matchup Analysis - I always get this wrong. Write Your Own Punchline!

Portland has been experimenting with its starting lineup. What we see tonight may in no way resemble this description.

PG - Blake vs Brooks

Steve Blake is a good player with some real limitations. One is that when defending a player like Brooks he often resembles a turnstile. Andre Miller is somewhat better at defense, but has his own limitations - mainly that he sometimes fails to understand his role in the offense and takes shots away from more productive scorers.

Advantage: Rockets

SG - Roy vs Ariza.

Brandon Roy, for my money, is one of the top 3 SG in the league at this point. Trevor Ariza is the sort of player who can slow him down. Will he? We'll see. Roy has put up some huge games against us recently.

Advantage: Blazers

SF - Webster vs Battier

If Greg Oden is becoming God, then, Portland fans seem to reason, Nic Batum is obviously an archangel, if only because he actually seems to enjoy playing D. Unfortunately for them, he's hurt and they merely have a recent top 10 draft pick to replace him in Martell Webster. Some criticism has Webster content to loiter around the 3pt line, and not much else. I have no idea what Webster will bring. We all know what Battier will bring, but will he add 6 blocks? Let's hope so.

Advantage: Even

PF - Aldridge/Cunningham vs Scola/Landry

LaMarcus Aldridge is no doubt an effective player, with a sweet jumper. He's not really my preferred style of PF though. He can get hot and score points in bunches certainly, and his mid-range game seems made to work with an offense running through an omnipotent center. For now, that offense isn't Portland. Cunningham is another talented young Blazer player, a rookie in fact. I think Scola and Landry bring more to the party, especially the way Landry has been playing.

Advantage: Rockets

C - Odin vs Hayes

We discussed the incipient divinity of Odin in great detail. The All-Father remains a great unknown, perhaps a great-unknowable to mere Rockets' fans. Unless a raven whispers something in our ear soon, then it is not given for us to know what may transpire. Hayes can frustrate nearly any big man, but a Big God? Well, that could be different. We may see lots of Andersen, drawing Odin out of the paint, as Australians just don't show proper respect to anyone.

Advantage: Portland

Prediction: A tough game, but Portland may be in some disarray. Rockets by 4.

For coverage greater than that which can be conceived - Blazer's Edge.

Tuesday Dream Links

Only_A_Lad — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 16:37:11 -0000

More photos » by Sue Ogrocki - AP

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Shane Battier, I think, is one of the weirdest players in the league. That's not a shocking statement or anything - it is, after all, why Michael Lewis wrote that article about him - but I think we tend to assume around here that everyone accepts Shane's greatness, on some level. That clearly isn't the case, sadly. And that shouldn't be surprising, because (as I said previously) he's a weird player. So I'd like to kick off this week with a focus on the No-Stats All Star and perhaps shed some light on his disguised value.

The two most frequent criticisms I hear about Battier's game are:

He contributes nothing on offense
He has lost his defensive touch, or his defensive value was always overstated.

The first criticism stems from a misunderstanding of the way players can contribute to the offense. Volume shooters (Kobe, McGrady, Arenas, Steve Francis, etc.) help their teams (even if, sometimes, they aren't particularly efficient) by using possessions and "creating" (as vague a term as that is, it describes something real, I think). Efficient shooters (Steve Kerr, Novak, Ariza prior to this season) help their teams by not taking bad shot and converting the opportunities they're given at a very high rate. Battier obviously falls into this second category, scoring primarily as a spot-up shooter around the arc.

To say that Battier doesn't have an offensive game is foolish. He's efficient, even if he doesn't take many shots, and that matters. Not everyone can use 25% of the team's possessions, and so having somebody who can simply convert open field goals is very valuable.

The second criticism is a little more difficult to address. Shane's reputation is based almost entirely around his defense, and he has acquired (rightly or wrongly) a reputation as a "shut-down defender."

Matt Moore (of Hardwood Paroxysm fame) interviewed Chris Ballard (author of "The Art of a Beautiful Game") a few days ago. Ballard's book (which Tom reviewed a few weeks ago) includes a chapter on Battier. Roughly the last half of Moore's interview focuses on Battier, statistics, and (most interestingly) the Rockets' Front Office.

Ballard describes the defensive strategy employed by the Rockets against Brandon Roy and the Blazers in the playoffs last year. Roy, unlike Kobe, does not really favor a particularly side of the basket when scoring, driving to either side with equal frequency and converting field goals at roughly the same rate. However, Roy was better able to "create" to his left ("create" here meaning "creating space"), but was more likely to pass out to a teammate when driving to his right.

The Rockets, somewhat counter-intuitively, decided to force Roy to his left. He'd be able to score at a better rate and would make some nice highlight-reel plays, but he wouldn't be as able to get his teammates involved.

Shane can be a shut-down defender. We've seen him wreck Kobe's game at times, slow Melo down, and force LeBron James into the worst game of his career. But Ballard shows us that the way the Rockets think about good defense and the way they use Battier is a lot more complex than simply shutting down the other team's main scorer.

Consider this an endorsement for adjusted plus-minus, which we know the Rockets look at. APM is subject to a lot of noise, and it isn't useful on any level smaller than an entire season, but it should (theoretically) capture the obscured parts of team defense. While boxscore-based metrics tend to show that Battier's a good wing player, I think APM is probably the best way to evaluate a player like Shane. APM metrics generally show Battier is a pretty good player, though it's clear that the Rockets think he's more than that. I'm inclined to trust the guys with all the proprietary stats.

Carl Landry will be getting the first start of his career Wednesday against the Clippers. Scola, however, will be absent for the first time in his career. What does this mean for the Rockets?

Scola hasn't quite lived up to the "20-10" predictions from this summer, but that's partly because of a decline in minutes and an overall decline in the Rockets' defense. Averaged out across 36 minutes, his stats look pretty good, and he's currently 2nd in the league in defensive rebounding percentage. That's probably where losing Luis hurts the most, as Landry is simply nowhere near as good on the defensive glass.

Still, Carl Landry is an offensive dynamo. He currently leads the Rockets in free throw attempts, free throw percentage, field goal percentage, points per minute, true shooting percentage, PER, and he doesn't turn the ball over often. Also, he's their leading shot-blocker, and those stats come on a usage rate not far behind Ariza and Brooks. So there's a good case to be made that Carl Landry is the Rockets' best offensive player right now, and that has become especially evident as the Rockets live and die by his contributions off the bench. Should he be starting regularly? Probably not, given Scola's rebounding abilities, but (as has been said numerous times around here) he's making a great case for Sixth-Man of the Year.

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As long as we're on the subject of Shane Battier, Henry Abbott posted a story about Shane's college days a while back, and I never really got around to posting it here. Turns out, Shane likes to win, but he's not a dick about it.

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Jason Friedman writes about the Rockets in close games, noting that winning close games is mostly a matter of luck, but the Rockets also need to improve their execution in the half-court offense.

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Basketball Prospectus has three articles that I thought were particularly interesting. First, Pelton wrote about the three centers (Gasol, Oden, and Thabeet) involved in the Grizzlies' upset of the Blazers last week. We knocked Oden a lot around here last season, but I'm starting to come around on him, and Pelton agrees.

Add it up and, on a per-minute basis, only six players rate as more effective. Oden's WARP ranking--13th--is much lower, which points to the biggest remaining weakness in his game: foul trouble. His rate of fouls per possession has come down slightly, but Oden is still averaging 4.1 fouls a game and 6.7 per 40 minutes, which inevitably limits his time on the court. Nate McMillan has played things very cautiously with Oden, subbing him out early in the first quarter and rarely playing him with two fouls in the second quarter. Oden has played more than 30 minutes just once all season, and that required overtime at Atlanta. If he is able to get closer to 30 minutes a night than his current 24.6, Oden's rise will be impossible to ignore.

Second, Pelton looks at the All-O, No-D Toronto Raptors. What they've "accomplished" in Toronto is pretty astounding, actually:

It's been reported, most prominently by ESPN.com's John Hollinger (Insider only), that Toronto has posted the league's best Offensive Rating thus far, as well as its worst Defensive Rating. On its own, that's a mean feat, one accomplished just twice since the NBA-ABA merger and not in the last 25 years. (The Raptors' semi-dubious predecessors: the 1978-79 Houston Rockets and 1981-82 Denver Nuggets.) But saying the team merely has the best offense and worst defense in the league actually understates the magnitude of the kind of extremism we're seeing in Toronto. It's very early, but so far the Raptors have both the best offense and the worst defense since the merger, as measured by percentage above or below league average.

Last, Pelton investigates rookie sensation Brandon Jennings' recent slump:

Since scoring 26 points in Milwaukee’s win over Memphis on Nov. 21, rookie Bucks phenom Brandon Jennings has been in something of a slump. Entering tonight’s game against Chicago, Jennings had shot 29.0 percent (20-of-69) in his last four games. Not coincidentally, the Bucks had lost each of those games. With Andrew Bogut anchoring the defense in his return to the lineup, Milwaukee got the win tonight, but Jennings (5-for-15) shot poorly again.

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Kelly Dwyer reviews the Rockets' win over the Durants:

23 offensive boards for Houston in the win, they seemed quicker - geez, how many times am I going to write this in 2009-10? - to every loose ball, and stayed patient and active on the offensive end while trying to anticipate angles and look for the best shot possible.

In spite of Trevor Ariza (notes) (7-23 shooting, missing eight of nine from behind the arc) continually trying to shoot his team out of the game, the Rockets made up for his miscues and Luis Scola's (notes) absence (Scola was whacked in the face by Etan Thomas (notes) just 22 seconds into the game) by finding Carl Landry (notes) and David Andersen (notes) inside.

This is something I've been hearing more of, and I'm not so sure about it. Is Ariza really killing the Rockets' offense? Looking at the stats would seem to confirm that. A while back I linked to a Basketball Reference article about the '94 Rockets, and part of the discussion was about high-usage, low-efficiency guys like Cassell and Maxwell and their contributions to a championship-level team. And, inasmuch as the Rockets have clearly directed Ariza to shoot more, and they're clearly note reigning him in now that his efficiency has dropped, I'm not so sure that his contributions are a net negative on offense.

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The Nets lost their 17th-straight game on Sunday, tying the '89 Heat and '99 Clippers for most consecutive losses to begin a season. Rough, right? Oh, and they're next game is against the Mavs, so they'll probably break that particular milestone, too. B-Ref looks at all three historically bad teams, what they did wrong, and what they did to rebound from such awful seasons.

Oh, and Shoals over at the Baseline looks at the Nets' subsequent firing of head coach Lawrence Frank.

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Dave Berri takes another look at Kevin Durant. While PER, WP48 (Berri's stat), and most observers thought Durant made a huge leap in his second year, APM showed him as still a net-negative to his team.

Of course, there was another potential explanation. Adjusted plus-minus is a very inconsistent measure. The year-to-year correlations are very low (there is a great deal of "noise" in the model). So it could be Durant’s adjusted plus-minus was due to his supposedly awful defensive skills. Or it could be noise in the model.

After 15 games this year it is beginning to look like "noise" was the culprit. According to BasketballValue.com, Durant’s adjusted plus-minus score is 16.09. This is the second highest mark on the team. So it looks like everyone is now in agreement. Durant is officially a "good" player (ain’t that a relief?).

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Lastly, in honor of the Rockets' win over OKC, here's a video of Rudy T beating up Scotty Brooks.