SB Nation - Jason Smith

Thoughts on Rockets 96 - 76ers 91 (Aka Game Recap)

Xiane — Sat, 12 Dec 2009 05:02:07 -0000

Houston Rockets' Tracy McGrady is proud to represent the nation of China in the 2009-2010 NBA All-Star Game. (AP Photo/Matt Slocum)

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This game was viewed through the prism of an ill child (nothing serious), so my thoughts are more fragmented that usual. I'll rely more on that last resort of scoundrels, statistics.

When one looks at the 76er starting lineup, it is pretty impressive:

Elton Brand, Andre Iguodala, Allen Iverson, Samuel Dalembert, Thaddeus Young.

That's a lot of talent, a ton of athletic ability. Elton Brand has in the past, been one of the finest players in the NBA at his position. Iguodala has one of the more well-rounded, athletic and interesting games in the NBA. Iverson, well, he's raging at the dying of the light, at any rate, and he looks to have something left. Yet the Sixers have now lost 12 straight games. Why? I (imagine I) hear you asking. Two words: The Bench.

Players seeing minutes from the Philly bench tonight include: Willie Green (25), Jason Kapono (17), Jrue Holliday (8), Jason Smith (3), Primoz Breszec (5).

Total points in 58 out of 240 possible player minutes? Six. I repeat. S-I-X.

Let's compare that to the Rocket's bench, total points: 46 in 84 player minutes. So Philly's bench scored roughly one point every 9.40 minutes. The Rockets bench scored a point every 1.5 minutes.

This is an object lesson in bench construction (and another reason why "WE © or Ω or √ MOREY" Guess what? No little "heart" thingy.). Houston, with 40% of an NBA payroll, has a bench that, frankly, buried Philly's in this contest.

That is not how the game started. Phily jumped on Houston early, prompting fears of the 76ers once again being a team that's pure poison for the Rockets, no matter how bad they look against the rest of the league. Then the benches matched up, and the Rockets closed a Philly lead that stood at 10 after the first quarter to 3 points at the half.

When outside observers look at the Rockets, I think they often make the mistake of looking at the starting lineup and saying "That's not a high caliber NBA lineup." Well, maybe not (though I disagree). But to understand the Rockets, you have to go 9-10 deep. You could start the Rocket's second unit and give up very little, overall.

The players aren't exactly comparable, with some offering more offense, some defense, so let's look at Win Shares so far in 2009-2010. The typical Rocket starting lineup boasts a 7WS total at this point. The second unit (of 4 players) is contributing 5WS - add an average rating of one starter from the first team and you get a total of 6.4WS for the second unit (as we've yet to see much of Taylor thus far). Point being, the Rockets give up little, or nothing, switching out almost their entire lineup. This, I submit, is a powerful, and under-appreciated, advantage.

Every Philly starter played 34 minutes or more, with the exception of Dalembert, who played 29. Brand logged 43, sitting down 5 minutes of the contest, and Iguodala saw 40. Only Ariza came close to that, going 42.

Notes:

I'm very happy we didn't once again drop a game to the 76ers as we have done so frequently in the past. We need to win every single game against floundering opponents. We're going to struggle to hit .500 against the top teams, so we need to clean up on games against below .500 teams.

Iverson gave young Kyle Lowry and Aaron Brooks a lesson in drawing fouls and shooting FTs. Lowry is good at it, but AI is the past master, and he put on a "weak contact FT shooting" clinic in the 4th.

Carl Landry is one of the most valuable players in the NBA on a salary/production basis. I'm now surprised when a Landry shot doesn't go in, and the reasons why not usually break down to: uncalled foul on Carl, the shot was a bit out of his range. That's it.

Commenting on the Tracy McGrady All-Star Game "controversy": what would happen if TMac's first 2009-2010 game appearance was in the NBA ASG? Could the Rocket's keep him out of it, if he hadn't played for them to that point, but wanted to play in the ASG?

The Lakers are going for their 11^th straight win tonight. Some Laker apologists have made an interesting argument that LA having 17 of 21 appearances at home to start the year isn't much of an advantage. After their recent run, can this assertion be supported? We'll have to see the record they compile when they actually do leave LA for more than 48 hours at a time to know more.

You know, every time I see those weird Charlie Sheen/Michael Jordan "Haynes Undergarments" ads I think a couple of things:

1. These are terrible ads. Are there two more unlikable pitch men than Pathetic Sheen, and Arrogant Michael Jordan, blowing him off? Who would those pitchmen be?

2. I always imagine Charlie Sheen is the head scout, or cap guru, for the Bobcats. He's trying to get Jordan to pay attention to some mundane franchise detail, like player signings, or budget, and MJ just drives away, late to a tee time.

Surprisingly, the Rockets are not playing a back-to-back on the road Saturday night. Next game vs Toronto in that mysterious and far-away land known as Canada.

Sixers lose to Hawks

jsams — Sat, 28 Nov 2009 03:36:47 -0000

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Box Score

Tonight the Sixers played well enough to keep it interesting, but ultimately lost their fifth straight game. The way they hung in there reminded me of the 07-08 team, which was good to see. They have no business playing with teams like the Celtics, Hawks and Cavs -- especially with 3 of their best players out with injuries -- but as long as they play with as much effort as they did tonight, they'll steal a few wins here and there. At least good teams aren't blowing them out anymore.

Andre Iguodala continues to struggle, and I'm beginning to lose my patience. His jump shot is flat-out painful to watch, and I wish he'd just stop taking them. I'd rather see Thaddeus Young shoot 30 times a game. After watching him put up brick after brick, complain about every foul and non-foul call, make behind the back passes in traffic, and have Joe Johnson back him down with ease, I'm starting to question my once passionate man-crush on Andre Iguodala. I understand that he doesn't have much help on the offensive end, and I don't care.

Jrue Holiday was equally painful to watch. The defensive stud himself was torched by Mike Bibby. However; this was his second career start, and he's the youngest player in the NBA -- he's entitled to these types of games. For much of the game I had to remind myself that Royal Ivey and Jrue Holiday did not switch numbers, because that's who Jrue looked like. If you're a Sixers fan, no further explanation is needed, but if you've never seen Royal Ivey play, YouTube him. If you don't find a single highlight, there's a reason for that.

Even though Andre and Jrue stunk, the other young fellers impressed. Carney and Smith were all over the place, and look like legitimate bench players. I'm convinced that both of them could play key minutes for a contender right now. And Thaddeus Young was fantastic on the offensive end.

The Sixers gave their best effort tonight, and I'm pleased about that. But after three straight years of "We tried really hard, but still lost," as the team's motto, I'm enjoying watching this team less and less.

Player of the game: Jason Smith.

LeBrons 97 Sixers 91

jsams — Sun, 22 Nov 2009 03:10:16 -0000

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Box Score

The good news: the Sixers played their best game of the season. The bad news: it came in a losing effort. King James was simply too much to handle in the fourth quarter, and led his team to a victory with his home crowd cheering him on. His matchup with Andre Iguodala was the major difference in tonight's game. LeBron dominated crunch time and Iguodala tried to play hero, forcing awful, awful shots and just flat out sucked. This has been a developing story all year long. Iguodala worked on his jumper over the summer and all of a sudden thinks he's Kobe Bryant. He settled for jumper after jumper and eventually killed his team in the end.

Big shout out to Lou Williams, Thaddeus Young, Elton Brand, Rodney Carney and Jason Smith who gave a terrific effort tonight. Even Eddie Jordan coached a good game. His only mishap was playing Royal Ivey to start the fourth quarter, but I understand his reasoning. It was either Royal or Green because his guards were gassed and needed to be ready for the final 8 minutes. Jrue was not an option. This wasn't the game to "get his feet wet".

Andre Iguodala gave a terrific effort as well. I was just displeased with his shot selection. Other than that, great game.

The were a ton of positives to take from tonight's loss and I'll go more in-depth tomorrow morning.

In the meantime, use this post to discuss the game or why you're sitting on a Sixers blog on a Saturday night.

Brand out? Who's in?

jsams — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 00:26:35 -0000

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Earlier today Kate Fagan speculated that there might be a change in the Sixers lineup on Wednesday night. What change? No one is quite sure, especially head coach Eddie Jordan.

Then we asked if that might mean a change to the starting lineup. Here's where it gets interesting. Jordan said, "Ummm," then there was a long pause and he smiled and said, "Who knows? Nothing is going to change until Wednesday, if there is a change."

No surprise there. All we know is, if there is a change, it will most likely involve Elton Brand moving to the bench. This comes after super-sophomore Marreese Speights went down with a partially torn MCL, who some fans wanted to see take Brand's spot anyway. Now that he's hurt, EJ is left with Jason Smith, Bill Green or Rodney Carney as potential replacements.

In the meantime, there are some differing opinions on how much Elton can contribute.

Brand, for what it's worth, said he still thought he was a 40 minute a night player.

Yeah, if he were playing for the LA Sparks.

[Eddie Jordan] was asked if he felt Brand was a 40-minute a night player. His response, without hesitation, was "No."

For what it's worth, I don't Elton thinks you're a 40-minute a night coach, so there.

Here's what I would do:

Bench Elton, start Carney and Iguodala at the two and the three (order doesn't matter), slide Thad to the four and start Jason Smith at center. It sounds crazy, but hear me out.

Carney and Iguodala give the starting lineup two solid wing defenders and insane athleticism to do the whole run and gun thing that has worked for them in year's past (F the Princeton Offense). Jason Smith is an okay defender, and unlike Sam won't commit stupid fouls, turn the ball over on outlet passes, or play outside of his comfort level. In other words, we won't see him attempting to cross-over his man, fight through a double team and throw up a left-handed hook shot while doing a complete 360 in mid-air. (I may have exaggerated a little, but that's exactly how Sam imagines it when he catches the pass.) Smith also stretches the floor with his three-point range. Throw in Lou and Thad (who defends fours better than threes, <--- numbers tell me I'm wrong, my mind tells me I'm right), and the starting lineup is full of:

Athleticism - Fast breaks galore.
3-point range - Everyone on the floor is capable of hitting a three.
No defense - Eddie Jordan will have his opponents right where he wants 'em.

Then, the ever-problematic bench can slow the pace down, rebound well, play solid defense and keep games close. Here's the first five off the bench in my scenario:

PG - Jrue Holiday

SG - Bill Green

SF - Jason Kapono

PF - Elton Brand

C - Samuel Dalembert

Four out of those five guys are average/above average defenders. In theory, Elton and Sam would provide solid rebounding and interior defense, Jrue and Green would stop penetration, and Kapono would stand around like the skinny white guy at the park, wearing matching warm-ups and a head band, hoping the ball doesn't get passed to his man. (Yes, I just described myself.) That's on defense.

On offense, they could rotate between Brand and Green as the focal points and hope Jason Kapono gets open for a couple of threes.

If you have a problem with my suggestion and your argument include the words "de" or "fense", save it, because you know better than that.

That's what I would do, but here's what Eddie Jordan will do: Bench Brand, start Carney at the two, slide Iguodala to the three and Thaddeus to the four. And don't worry, he'll convince Stefanski he's making the right move by conducting a 9-hour "chalk session" before the game.

Toronto Raptors Season Preview - The Return of the Titanic Division

RaptorsHQ - Franchise — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 13:24:11 -0000

More photos » by Frank Franklin II - AP

Outside of the Celtics, things could get ugly for the rest of the Atlantic Division.

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To kick off this week's series of Raptor previews, Franchise takes an analytical look at the Atlantic Division, and then the rest of the Eastern Conference...

As most readers know, I'm a big fan of David Berri's Wages of Wins website, and the "wins produced" (WP) metric he so often employs to measure player value and effectiveness.

Is the metric infallible?

Of course not.

However I've found more often than not, that it's given a pretty acurate view of both individual and team performance.

Take last year's Toronto Raptors.

Berri recently charted each player who participated on the team last year in terms of their "wins produced", and their combined score was 33.5. That's half a win more than the team's actual total from last season so in fact, his calculation hit the nail nearly right on the head.

And on the opposite end of the spectrum, let's look at the Boston Celtics.

Berri charted the team's total wins produced at 61.1 and the team in fact won 62 games.

Again, pretty bang on.

Even if you don't agree with the way he calculates "wins produced," or disagree with his analysis, I find that it's an interesting way to look at things; one that doesn't get nearly enough attention.

To that end, I thought that instead of previewing the Raptors and their Atlantic Division competitors through traditional means, I'd use Berri's "wins produced" score to form a rough estimate of how teams could end up seeded when playoffs rolled around.

I also took things one step further, and looked at the Eastern Conference as a whole, but for the moment let's talk Titanic.

Yes, that's right, I think that the Titanic moniker will be reinstated this season.

That may not be surprising to some, as it's no stretch to say that the New Jersey Nets post-Vince Carter appear to have taken a step back, and the New York Knicks, well, they're the Knicks. However I'm also expecting the Philadelphia 76ers to take a step back as well, partly due to the loss of Andre Miller and the point guard situation, and partly due to the re-acclimatization of Elton Brand. Remember, with Brand last year the Sixers were hardly looking like a playoff contender.

And as for our beloved Raptors, I definitely think they've taken a step in the right direction from last year's moribund club, but I'm not putting them close the the cream of the division, the Boston Celtics, in terms of wins. That being said, I do think that the Raptors will finish second in the Atlantic when all is said and done, and looking at Berri's work via his recent series of team previews, the metrics appear to back that up.

Adding up the "wins produced" for the current group of Raptors, based on last year's individual WP scores, Toronto ends up with 34.8 wins. However that's not taking into account scores for DeMar DeRozan, a rookie, or Sonny Weems, who as well in many ways will be experiencing his first real year of NBA action. Based on their performance in college, it would seem that these two would add another 3 to 4 wins combined, putting Toronto's WP total score around 38. That's not the 42 wins I'd earmarked the team to hit, however it puts the Dinos ahead of Philadelphia, 32.4, New Jersey, 31.2, and New York, 30.1, as can be seen from the table below:

Toronto Raptors		New York Knicks		New Jersey Nets		Philadelphia 76ers
Calderon	11.5	Duhon	5.5	Harris	8	Williams	1.8
Belinelli	0.1	Hughes	2	Lee	3	Green	-0.3
Turkoglu	6.7	Chandler	1	Lopez	5.4	Iguodala	13.1
Bargnani	-0.3	Lee	14.1	Simmons	4.3	Brand	12
Bosh	9.9	Curry	-1.9	Yi	0	Dalembert	6.9
Jack	4.4	Robinson	6.7	Boone	1.3	Young	2.2
DeRozan	R	Gallinari	0.7	Hassell	1.2	Holiday	R
Wright	-2.4	Harrington	0	CDR	0.5	Speights	0.6
Evans	3.5	Milicic	1.1	Najera	-0.3	Kapono	-1.7
Nesterovic	-1.3	Jeffries	0.9	Dooling	3.4	Ivey	-0.7
Johnson	2.7	Hill	R	T. Williams	R	Jason Smith	-1.5
Weems	R			Alston	4.4	Prezec	0
Total	34.8	Total	30.1	Total	31.2	Total	32.4

Of course this is no perfect view. I've simply taken the WP scores that Berri calculated from last season (and in Brand's case, use an estimated value based on his play in numerous previous seasons), and added them up to get a rough final WP team score.

Injuries, minutes played, team fit (for new players), sample size (for rookies and sophomores) and other factors will impact how each player's "wins produced" metric turns come end of the season, so again, this is admittedly a rough view I've taken. In fact, the Knicks, 76ers, and Nets should all boast slightly higher total WP scores based on the play of their rookies, whose numbers aren't factored in to the final team scores above. However outside of Terrence Williams on the Nets, who looks to be able to produce a higher WP score than any other rookie in the division based on his college statistics, I don't anticipate any of these other young bucks to produce at significant enough rate to change the final WP ratios for each team.

Translation - in the end, I do believe the Raptors will finish behind only the Celtics in the division race.

But what about the Conference itself? It's been much-discussed that after the Celtics, Magic, and Cavs form the top 3 in some order, with the exception of maybe Atlanta, the final four playoff spots could go to any of about six teams, including the Raps.

Using the same methodology then that I used to determine divisional order, I looked at how Toronto would finish statistically compared to Miami, Chicago, Detroit, Washington and Indiana, the five clubs expected to fight for those coveted final four playoff spots.

The results were as follows:

4.	Washington
5.	Atlanta
6.	Indiana
7.	Miami
8.	Toronto
9.	Philadelphia
10.	Detroit

Surprisingly, based on Total Wins Produced, Atlanta doesn't have the best shot at the fourth position come playoff time, Washington does. And Indiana, a club many figure to miss the playoffs entirely, finishes in sixth. The Raptors end up grabbing the final playoff spot, slightly ahead of the 76ers.

And the Pistons, while placing 10th on this list, actually predict to finish behind even the Nets and Knicks based on their hideous WP score of under 30!

So what does this all mean?

Well, to some, maybe not much. As previously mentioned, there are a good deal of variables not taken into account looking at this data, and therefore it's no sure thing that things will end up in this manner when the season draws to a close.

However I do think we can safely draw two conclusions from this analysis; the first being that the Raptors will end up being a playoff team, albeit not a very high-seeded one, and second being that the Atlantic Division will most likely end up being the worst division in the East, and maybe in all of the NBA.

Will Toronto only win 35 to 38 games?

I think 38, barring any major injuries to key players, is the magic number at one end of the spectrum, representing the lowest total of wins we can expect from this club while at the other end, I put the best case scenario at 45. That 45 of course represents a giant improvement from Andrea Bargnani, and substantial impacts from players like Weems, DeRozan and perhaps even Amir Johnson and Marco Belinelli.

The other point that I think is important to highlight here then is the importance of divisional match-ups this year. With the Atlantic looking like the home of some very poor basketball clubs, the Raptors need to take advantage of the fact that they'll see these other teams more than most other clubs, thus representing a good source of potential wins.

And fortunately the Dinos don't see an Atlantic Division rival until the end of November, and that's the 27th against the Celtics.

That should give the team plenty of time to gel before clubs like the Knicks and Nets come-a-calling...

Washington Wizards "beat" Philadelphia 76ers in preseason: Final wrap

Mike Prada — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 14:47:44 -0000

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Also see: Quick game recap | Morning Briefing

Highest plus/minus: Fabricio Oberto (+7)
Lowest plus/minus: Andray Blatche (-6)

Four Factors (bold is very good, italics is very bad)

Team	Pace	Off Eff	eFG%	FT/FG	OREB%	TOr
Washington	92	97.8	48.2%	12	31.8	19.6
Philadelphia		96.7	45.6%	20	16.3	13

Before we fret about the ending, let's keep a few things in mind:

We were missing our best player, our third-best player and our marquee offseason acquisition. Philadelphia was missing nobody.
We were on the road
We were in the second game of a back-to-back
The unit that closed the game (Mike James, Nick Young, Dominic McGuire, Andray Blatche and JaVale McGee) is never going to close games in the regular season. In fact, it's quite possible none of those guys will be in our closing lineup if everyone is healthy. To be fair, 76ers fans will probably respond correctly that they aren't going to close any games with the lineup of Louis Williams, Willie Greene, Jason Kapono, Jason Smith and Marreese Speights, but that's a hell of a lot closer to their closing lineup that ours was.
When it was our "starters" vs. their starters, we outperformed the 76ers.

Now, the ending was really bad, no question. JaVale McGee made a boneheaded play to go for the spectacular finger roll (he wasn't fouled either), and Nick Young made a dumb defensive play on Willie Green. The unit also made several mental mistakes down the stretch that aided Philly's comeback.

But there was a lot more good than bad to come out of this game. In particular, the following stuff was good:

Rebounding: The 76ers were the second-best offensive rebounding team in the league last year, but they had just seven offensive rebounds last night, and three of those came in the fourth quarter. This is significant for two reasons. One, Philly was bricking a lot of shots, so there were a ton of offensive rebounding opportunities to be had. Two, the Wizards have been awful on the defensive glass this preseason, so this was a huge step in the right direction. What was the cause? I thought Fabricio Oberto was a huge presence here -- he did a great job of sealing off his man and being in position to grab the rebound. Seven defensive rebounds in just 25 minutes is excellent, and more importantly, he helped prevent the 76ers from grabbing offensive rebounds even if he himself couldn't get the defensive board.
Shot defense: Granted, the 76ers are a pretty pitiful perimeter shooting team (which will kill them this year if they stick with their starting lineup), but the Wizards did a great job of packing the lane and contesting outside shots. An eFG% allowed of 45.6% (Philly's mark) is very, very good for any defense.
Transition defense, combined with good offensive rebounding: Not sure how many fast-break points the 76ers had, but anecdotally, it appeared the Wizards did a great job with their floor balance tonight, which is key because the 76ers kill so many teams in transition. What makes this more impressive is that the Wizards actually did a great job on the offensive glass at the same time, mostly because of Brendan Haywood's work inside. Often times, you have to surrender offensive rebounding opportunities in order to get back, especially against a team as athletic as Philadelphia, but the Wizards were able to do both.
JaVale McGee: Yes, he went back to pogo-stick McGee in the last couple minutes, but by and large, McGee played extremely under control in his 15-minute stint. Unlike the Atlanta game, where he had seven offensive rebounds and zero defensive boards, McGee contributed on the defensive glass (5 defensive boards in 15 minutes). He also was in position most of the time on defense, save for a couple late breakdowns where he allowed Marreese Speights to get inside too easily.
Andray Blatche's jumper: I know what you're thinking. Get inside, Andray, and play like a big man! But as much as this makes sense, it's also worth noting that the lane gets very clogged when Blatche is in there with another big like Haywood, Oberto or McGee, all of whom either like to play inside or should like to play inside. If Blatche can hit jumpers as proficiently as he did last night while still grabbing six boards in 22 minutes, he will be a helpful player.
Brendan Haywood: He just obliterated Samuel Dalembert in the paint. Destroyed him. Dalembert hit a couple tough shots, but Haywood didn't allow him to sniff the glass and was able to get some offensive rebounding opportunities himself. He looks like he's back to form. Alas, I wish he got more post-up opportunities than he did. Too many mid-range contested jumpers from Randy Foye and Caron Butler

Some negatives? Foye continues to struggle running the offense. He had a stretch in the third quarter where he got hot and started to play well, but the end line (17 points on 14 shots) is less efficient that you'd like. I still think he's best suited to play off the ball running off screens, because he has great form on his jumper and just doesn't seem like he knows what to do once he gets inside. I know he missed a lot of Js tonight, but that's because he was taking difficult shots.

He also just doesn't have great PG instincts right now. There was one play where the Wizards would have had a fast break off a long rebound, but Foye just kept running upcourt with everyone instead of getting the ball from the big guy. It's little stuff like this that hurts the team and makes it feel like Foye's a misfit as a point guard. I still contend that he's best suited to play a lot with Mike Miller, with Miller running the point in the halfcourt and Foye coming off screens ready to shoot without dribbling.

I also thought Nick Young's defense on Andre Iguodala was pretty poor. Yes, you want Iguodala shooting jumpers, but he was wide open coming off screens several times in the third quarter. I wonder what's really hurting Young on off-ball screens so much. He clearly is working hard, but his technique just seems poor. It seems like it's really easy for an offensive player to run him into those screens because Young isn't doing enough to force the offensive players' action. Hopefully someone can help him with this, because I don't think his defensive struggles are from a lack of effort. They're from a lack of fundamentals.

All in all, good performance from the troops, win or lose. If that phantom foul at the end doesn't happen and we lose 89-88, I'm still happy. The bottom line in preseason isn't wins or losses, it's how you look, and I thought we looked very good tonight.

High/Low Expectations: Jason Smith

jsams — Fri, 16 Oct 2009 17:01:25 -0000

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Jason Smith PF/C #14

Best case: Jason returns from his injury better than ever, plays a solid backup center/power forward, and the "Birdman role" for the Sixers this season. When Smith shakes off the rust I envision him being a much like Chris Anderson was for the Nuggets last season -- only with less tattoos, and a better jump shot. I really like what Jason brings to the table: shot blocking, energy, and the ability to stretch the defense. His impact won't necessarily show up in the box score, but he'll be a nice addition to the Sixers bench. However; I don't expect his knee to be fully recovered until December or January.

Best case stats: 20 minutes, 7 points on 50% shooting, 4 rebounds, and 1 block.

Worst case: Jason remains rusty for the entire season and hurts the team more than he helps. He's been less than impressive in the pre-season, and looks a timid. Because of the type of player Jason is, he needs all the explosiveness he can get. He'll make little, to no impact if his knee is not right.

Worst case stats: 5 minutes, 1 point on 44% shooting, less than 1 rebound, and less than 1 block.

Poll

Which is more realistic?

Best case.

121 votes

Worst case.

51 votes

172 votes | Poll has closed

Pre-Season: Game 1

jsams — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 20:58:05 -0000

We're less than three hours away from catching our first glimpse of our Philadelphia 76ers in live game-action. Since pre-season wins and losses are no indication of whether either team is good or not (See: 2008 Detroit Lions), tonight's game will be more about individual performances than the outcome. Here are a couple of things to keep an eye on:

The Princeton Offense: how much has Eddie implemented? Do the players look comfortable with what they've learned thus far? How much better will our offensive sets look as opposed to last year -- if any? Will it affect the Sixers fast break-machine?
Lou Williams as the starting point guard: Has his shot improved? How much are we going to miss Andre Miller?
Who's going to run the offense the majority of the time? Lou Williams, Andre Iguodala or a mix of everyone?
How explosive is Elton Brand? Is he 100% healthy this time around?
Jrue Holiday -- everything from playing time to defense.
Does Jason Smith look fully recovered? Is he even better than he was before?
How will our team look with a legitimate three-point threat on the floor? (Jason Kapono)
Is Jason Kapono's defense really that bad?
Has Andre Iguodala's shot improved?
Is Marreese Speights going to play defense, rebound, and refrain from taking 20-footers every time he touches the ball?

These are the 10 things I'll be monitoring throughout the game. Besides the new jerseys (yay), what are you looking forward to seeing most?

Don't forget to check back around game-time to join the live thread.

Philadelphia 76ers Preview 2009-2010

jsams — Sun, 04 Oct 2009 11:00:29 -0000

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Team Name: Philadelphia 76ers

Last Year's Record: 41-41

Key Losses: Andre Miller, Donyell "Donny-Ice" Marshall, Reggie Evans, Theophilus Ratliff

Key Additions: Elton Brand (injury), Jason Smith (injury), Jason Kapono, Jrue Holiday, Rodney Carney

1. What significant moves were made during the off-season?

A season removed from signing the biggest free-agent on the market (Elton Brand), the Sixers failed to make a big splash -- if any spash -- this off-season. The bad economy, a handful of terrible contracts, and refusing to commit more than one year to any free agent all factored into the Sixers inactivity. That said, they still managed to have a surprisingly productive off-season.

Interim coach Tony DiLeo resigned immediately after the season and resumed his role in the front office. Since DiLeo was officially named assistant GM in 2003, the Sixers have nearly achieved draft perfection. Him returning to the front office was not only good for the Sixers short-term, but long-term, because he can focus on dominating drafts rather than coaching mediocrely.

Now head coach-less, Ed Stefanski quickly hired former Washington Wizards coach Eddie Jordan. There were other candidates, but Stefanski felt Eddie Jordan's leadership and knowledge of the Princeton Offense benefited the Sixers roster most. (Their long-term friendship probably had nothing to do it.) Last season, one of the Sixers biggest weaknesses was the lack of an organized offense. In 2007-2008 when they made an inspired playoff run under Mo Cheeks, the Sixers M.O. was to out-run, out-jump, and out-hustle their opponents. They had no set offense; it was 'fast break or bust'. Their style was fun to watch and effective in the regular season, but fizzled in the playoffs, so they signed Elton Brand, hoping his post-presence would fix their problems. However; the Sixers failed to realize they also needed a coach who could integrate Brand into the offense without taking away the team's biggest strength -- the fast break. Mo Cheeks sure couldn't, so he was fired, and his replacement, Tony DiLeo never had a chance since Elton was injured for the majority of his tenure. This year the Sixers have a healthy Elton Brand, and a coach who has the ability to blend his post-game with the Sixers fast break.

As far as personnel moves are concerned, the Sixers had very few. They traded an expendable player in Reggie Evans to the Toronto Raptors in exchange for the best three-point shooter (tied with Steve Kerr at .45%) in NBA history, Jason Kapono. Why is this significant? The Sixers were the worst three-point shooting team in the NBA last season (32%), so trading Reggie Evans for one of the best three-point shooters in the league is definitely a good move. Reggie Evans was a fan favorite because of his unprecedented hustle and energy he provided every night, but he wasn't a very skilled basketball player, and wasn't going to receive much playing time behind Sam Dalembert, Elton Brand, Jason Smith, and Marreese Speights.

Other significant moves: drafted Jrue Holiday and signed Rodney Carney for the veteran's minimum. Jrue is the point guard of the future, but that doesn't mean he can't contribute this season. In my opinion, he's one of -- if not the best -- defender in this draft class. All the Sixers need from him this season is 10-15 minutes of lights out defense; the rest is gravy. Carney was a sneaky good move. He was cheap. He's comfortable with the team and the city. His athleticism fits the Sixers style perfectly, and he's an improving outside shooter.

Elton Brand and Jason Smith also return after missing the majority of last season with injuries.

2. What are the team’s biggest strengths?

Athleticism: you're hard-pressed to find another NBA team with as much athleticism as the Philadelphia 76ers. I watched a JV basketball game last season. Team A was fundamentally sound, well-coached, and basketball-smart. Team B looked like they barely knew what hoop to shoot on, and bricked 90% of their jumpers in warm-ups. Team A lost; they were literally run out of the gym, blown out, destroyed, and any other adjective you would use to describe a painful beating. Why did this happen? Because Team B was the most athletic JV team on the planet. They didn't need basketball skill, because they didn't take a jumpshot the entire game. They ran, they jumped, they dunked. Why am I telling you this story? Because the Sixers have done the same a handful of NBA teams over the past two seasons. That should give you an idea of how athletic they are.

The Sixers athleticism allows them to out-run and out-hustle slower, older teams in a 48 minute game, and even more so in an 82 game season. It's no coincidence that the Sixers have played their best basketball after the all-star break recently. Other teams wear down; the Sixers do not.

Their athleticism also leads to a lot of fast break points. There aren't many teams who can keep up with Andre Iguodala and co. in transition. Fast breaks normally end with a high-percentage shot, and for a team who doesn't shoot the ball particularly well, you'll take as many easy buckets as you can.

The Sixers second biggest strength is also fueled by their athleticism: defense. Most of their players run fast, jump high, posses cat-like reflexes, and the endurance of Kobayashi during a hot dog eating contest. All bode well for playing solid defense. If the Sixers stay healthy, I predict their defense ranks in the top 5 of the NBA.

Other strengths are: team chemistry, hustle, and an uncanny ability to comeback from a 20-point deficit.

3. What are the team’s biggest weaknesses?

Can't shoot. Can't shoot. Can't shoot. Can't shoot. Can't shoot. Can't shoot. Can't shoot. Can't shoot. Can't shoot. Can't shoot. Can't shoot. Can't shoot. Can't shoot. Can't shoot. Can't shoot. Can't shoot. Can't shoot. Can't shoot. Can't shoot. Can't shoot. They're biggest weakness is their inability to make jumpers consistently. Double D's can only take you so far (Dunks and Defense). If you're going to be a contender, you're going to have to make a jumper once in a while. The Princeton Offense, Jason Kapono and rumored improvement from Iguodala, Thaddeus and Lou should help, but we won't know for sure until the regular season.

The Sixers other major weakness is the point guard position. Andre Miller is gone, and many would argue that he was the Sixers best player during his tenure in the black, gold, white, red, blue (I'm glad those uniforms are gone!). He's in Portland now, and his replacement Lou Williams has been inconsistent and disappointing more often than not. Call me crazy, call me biased -- I'm probably both -- but I believe this will be Lou Williams breakout season. The Princeton Offense does not require a true point guard, which benefits Lou. He's a score-first guard, always has been, always will be. If I remember correctly, the last score-first point guard to run an Eddie Jordan offense was Gilbert Arenas. If Lou can play anything like Gil (with a little more defense and a little less flare) -- and I think he's talented enough -- the Sixers will go a long way.

4. What are the goals for this team?

"We expect to make the playoffs, then you have to make some noise in the playoffs. You always, or you better think that you want to win the world championship." -- GM Ed Stefanski

The number one goal is to make the playoffs and win a series. The Sixers came close the past two seasons, but failed to close out game four not once, but twice. This year, they have the most talented team they've had since Iverson, and two years of playoff experience. If they miss the playoffs or lose in the first round the season will be considered a failure.

My second goal might be first on some fans' lists: the development of the young core. As far as Andre Iguodala and Lou Williams go, I think this will be their final year to drastically improve. However; Thaddeus Young, Jrue Holiday, and Marreese Speights have a long way to go before their reach their full potential. Whether or not they improve this season will determine whether or not this year is a success in the eyes of many Sixers fans. (the ones who don't believe their good enough to make the playoffs and/or advance.)

5. Things a non-Sixers fan might not know.

1) The Sixers are not a better team without Elton Brand. He wasn't 100% healthy last season, and never had a coach who knew how to use him. This season will be different. Don't expect 20-10 Elton, because that isn't what the team needs from him. His presence will be felt on defense and on the boards.

2) Andre Iguodala is a top 15 NBA player. Just because he doesn't score 20 points per game doesn't mean he isn't. Sixers fans are tired of making and/or hearing this argument, so I'll save my breath and link any non-believer to this article. It pretty much sums up our feelings.

3) Andre Iguodala is a really good dunker. Thaddeus Young is a really good dunker. Marreese Speights is a really good dunker. None of them are as good as Rodney Carney.

4) The Sixers lost at the buzzer 8 times last season. If half of those don't go in we're looking at 45-37 instead of 41-41.

5) The Sixers haven't had an All-Star since Allen Iverson left.

Oh, and if you missed it, here are 10 predictions that didn't make the preview.

Predicted Record: 48-34, loss in the eastern conference semifinals to Cleveland Cavilers.

I think the Sixers will be a top 5 team defensively, and the Princeton Offense will allow them to be average on the offensive end. Dominant defense, and average offense should be enough for 48 wins in the Eastern Conference. The Sixers reached 41 last season with a ton of injuries and coaching problems, and I think they're much better this year. I'd be inclined to go even higher if the learning curve for the Princeton Offense wasn't so high. I expect another slow-ish start and strong finish. The Atlantic division will add another "big 3" this season in the form of Andre Iguodala, Elton Brand, and Thaddeus Young.

Philadelphia 76ers: 10 Predictions

jsams — Fri, 02 Oct 2009 19:03:02 -0000

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My official preview for the annual blogger preview series comes out Sunday, but today I'm going to give you 10 random predictions that didn't make the cut.

The Sixers will have their first all-star since Allen Iverson.
Jason Smith will be the most productive big man off the bench.
Elton Brand will silence the critics who think he's a "bust" and that the team is better off without him.
Marreese Speights will take a step backward this season.
Rodney Carney will be the most productive wingman off the bench.
Bill Green, yes Bill Green, will give the Sixers 10-15 solid minutes off the bench.
Eddie Jordan will upset a lot of fans of by not playing Jrue Holiday enough.
Samuel Dalembert will have the best year of his life.
Jason Kapono will shoot a career-low percentage from beyond the arch.
No player will average more than 20 points per game.