SB Nation - Spencer Hawes

Preview: Cavaliers at Kings

Ziller — Wed, 23 Dec 2009 20:00:52 -0000

More photos » by Gary Dineen - NBAE/Getty Images

THE OPPONENT

The Cavaliers are really good, a popular pick for NBA champion the last, what?, four years or so. The team sits at 21-8, just 4th in the East but probably 5th in the entire league. This is a really, really good team. It was, this week, the first to beat the Suns in Phoenix, and is working toward its mammoth Christmas showdown against the L*kers.

Cleveland bakes its bread in several key categories: it is fourth in the league in shooting, second in shooting defense and second in defensive rebounding. That, frankly, spells a bit of doom for our Kings, who need to shoot well (currently 7th) and rebound on offense (currently 6th) to get that offense humming -- you'd prefer if the Cavs did other defensive things well. One nice feature of this arrangement is that Cleveland isn't good at forcing turnovers (committing turnovers being a major Kings problem); however, it's plausible the Kings don't need the opponent forcing any turnovers, because they can force themselves to commit them just fine.

The huge problem, as it always is with the Kings, is on defense. Again, the Cavaliers shoot brilliantly, with almost every rotation player boasting an effective field goal percentage above league average. (Zydrunas Ilgauskas and Delonte West are the exceptions.) LeBron James is of course the amazing Alpha -- know that he is remarkably shooting at a 50 percent clip from the field. Add in his threes (4-1/2 per game at 37 percent) and free throws (nine at 79 percent) and, yes, he is at a remarkable 60 percent True Shooting, Kevin Martin territory while soaking up 34 percent of the Cavs offense while on the floor. Remarkable is just the beginning.

Beyond James, Mo Williams shoots brilliantly, Anthony Parker has been effective, and even Jamario Moon and J.J. Hickson have come up roses. That's a lot of Cavs to cover, and the Kings have a dearth of quality defenders. That's a problem. Expect, perhaps, some early zone, buckets of help on LeBron, and pray for luck.

THE KEY BATTLE

Tyreke Evans vs. Mo Williams. LeBron will be matching up against two and maybe three Kings at many points, so it's vital that those who aren't helping down (Evans to start, Beno at some point) make sure to limit shooters like Williams. At the other end, that's where this becomes most key: the Kings cannot afford to fall in any sort of hole to Cleveland, so Evans can't just turn it on in the second half. He needs to attack the smaller, weaker Williams early early early. LeBron will be there to help, and I suspect James will have at least one "Welcome to the league, son" weakside block, but that's no deterrent: attack, young Padowan. Attack.

			FG			3PT			FT			Rebounds			Misc
	G	M	M	A	Pct	M	A	Pct	M	A	Pct	Off	Def	Tot	Ast	TO	Stl	Blk	PF	PPG
LeBron James	29	38.1	9.9	19.7	50.2	1.7	4.5	36.9	7.2	9.1	78.9	0.9	5.9	6.8	7.8	3.7	1.3	0.8	1.9	28.7
Mo Williams	29	35.6	5.8	13.0	44.2	2.2	5.1	43.9	2.8	3.1	87.9	0.3	3.0	3.3	4.8	2.4	1.4	0.2	2.8	16.5
Shaquille O`Neal	23	23.0	4.2	8.3	50.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	2.0	4.0	48.4	1.7	5.2	6.9	1.4	2.0	0.3	1.3	3.3	10.3
Anderson Varejao	27	29.9	3.3	6.5	50.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.5	2.4	64.1	2.5	5.4	7.9	1.0	0.7	1.0	0.9	3.2	8.1
Anthony Parker	29	28.7	2.7	6.0	44.3	1.6	3.2	50.0	0.5	0.7	78.9	0.4	2.3	2.7	1.7	1.0	0.8	0.2	1.7	7.4
J.J. Hickson	29	19.1	3.0	5.3	56.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.4	2.1	64.5	1.1	2.7	3.8	0.2	1.1	0.4	0.4	1.7	7.4
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	28	21.9	3.0	7.0	43.1	0.0	0.0	100.0	1.2	1.6	73.3	1.9	3.7	5.6	0.6	1.0	0.3	1.0	3.2	7.3
Delonte West	20	21.7	2.8	6.1	45.5	0.1	0.6	8.3	1.6	1.9	86.5	0.2	1.8	2.0	3.2	1.4	1.0	0.5	1.4	7.2
Daniel Gibson	27	19.7	2.5	5.3	46.5	1.4	2.9	49.4	0.6	0.9	70.8	0.2	1.1	1.3	1.1	0.6	0.6	0.0	1.7	7.0
Jamario Moon	24	18.6	2.1	4.3	48.5	0.6	1.8	34.1	0.8	0.9	85.7	0.5	3.4	4.0	0.5	0.4	0.4	0.6	1.5	5.5
Darnell Jackson	14	4.7	0.6	1.2	47.1	0.1	0.1	50.0	0.1	0.1	50.0	0.5	0.5	1.0	0.2	0.6	0.1	0.2	0.7	1.3
Danny Green	6	2.3	0.3	1.0	33.3	0.2	0.8	20.0	0.3	0.3	100.0	0.3	0.3	0.7	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.0	0.3	1.2
Jawad Williams	8	1.4	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0
Coby Karl	3	1.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.7	0.7	0.0	1.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

INTERESTING SIDESHOW

I'm telling you, when Jon Brockman checks in ... you may want to turn the volume down a few notches if you have a sleeping baby in the room. Evans and Ime Udoka deserve kudos for their role in the Comeback Heard 'Round the Greater Chicago Metropolitan Area And Also Sacramento, but Brockman is already a mascot fan favorite of sorts, and his game actually embodies the steez of this squad. It's easy to love this kid, and Sacramento clearly does. He will be rewarded for his effort tonight.

BOLD PROCLAMATION

Shaquille O'Neal will be widely booed. And not just by Spencer Hawes.

DETAILS

7PM, ladies and germs, the only late-late game on the NBA slate. Game thread at 7, sequel at 8, post-gamer at 9:45, recap on Christmas Eve.

Preview: Kings at Bulls

Ziller — Mon, 21 Dec 2009 20:00:38 -0000

by Rich Pedroncelli - AP

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THE OPPONENT

Last we met the Bulls, the Kings came in 5-4, winners of a shocking four straight once Kevin Martin got knocked off his torrid All-Star pace with a hand fracture. Sacramento had subpar performances from three key talismen (Tyreke Evans, Jason Thompson and most notably Spencer Hawes) and lost handily to the then-struggling Red and Black.

Andres Nocioni was unavailable in that game, though any boost you could portend from him here can be dismissed when you consider his replacement, Donte Greene, ripped Chicago apart with 24 points. Still, Chapu is a beloved player in most corners of the CHI, and I imagine he'll have a touch more swag this evening. Well that hurts or helps is, of course, another matter entirely.

Really, where the Kings need help here is with Evans, Thompson and Hawes. Surely Young Spence will start again -- Paul Westphal called his understated (to my eyes) Milwaukee performance the season's best from the green pivot -- and supposing Hawes plays well, Thompson should get a bit more free. Derrick Rose finally seems healthy, and Evans has a touch of the limp, so we'll see whether Reke can get back to his superlative standard again.

Sergio Rodriguez also played terrific ball in the first game; he has been stuck to the bench a bit of late, but Westphal has a long memory, and I imagine we'd see him early on.

THE KEY BATTLE

Jason Thompson vs. Taj Gibson. J.T. should destroy Gibson. He didn't last time (Joakim Noah marked him or helped off Hawes frequently) and that killed the Kings. The Bulls are just the sort of team J.T. should be going 20-10 against. Let's see it happen!

BOLD PROCLAMATION

John Salmons will miss all 17 three-pointers he attempts.

NUMERIC PREDICTION

Kings by 1.

DETAILS

5 PM tip -- the last early start as the Kings come home this week. Game thread at 5, Game thread II at 6, post-gamer at 7:45, recap by Christmas.

Bailed Out By a Star: Kings 96, Bucks 95

Ziller — Sun, 20 Dec 2009 15:50:02 -0000

It's not often you can actually see poor defensive rebounding finish off a team. Usually, the poor defensive rebounding puts the team in question in a bad position at the end of the game, and something else spells explicit doom. But, had it not been for the irrepressible Tyreke Evans, who made mincemeat pie of stud Bucks center Andrew Bogut on the game-winning bucket, this game would have been settled by Sacramento's terrible defensive rebounding.

Bogut missed two free throws down one with 42 seconds left. Studies have shown that the average NBA team rebounds opponent missed free throws at something like a 90 percent rate. But for roughly the dozenth time this season, the Kings gave up an offensive rebound, with Brandon Jennings somehow sneaking in to get the ball.

But it didn't stop there. Jennings missed a layup attempt. Rebound Bogut. Bogut missed his tip. Rebound Bogut. Another missed Bogut tip. Rebound Jennings, who drives back in and gets fouled by Spencer Hawes. The Kings could have ended the possession four times and taken the lead into the final half-minute. Hawes and Jason Thompson -- the frontcourt of the future -- were both on the floor. This wasn't smallball. This was a bad defensive rebounding team giving the game away on the defensive glass.

Of course, it didn't end up that way, because Thompson was brilliant on offense in the fourth (seven points on 3-3 shooting in the final 2 minutes, 40 seconds), because Hawes finished a monster dunk in the lane, and, of course, because of Evans, who came off a J.T. pick on that final play and deked Bogut all the way back to Tuesday. No blame on Bogey for that one -- what can a big guy do?. It's just another crosshatch in the early canon of 'Reke, one we won't soon forget.

I have no idea how Bogut ended up shooting 6-20 from the floor, given how effortless his possessions near the rim looked. Neither Hawes nor Thompson could stop him -- Bogut ended up getting enough tough bounces and failed tips to turn out an inefficient night, but in most games it wouldn't have gone that way. The only Buck who actually came out with a strongly efficient game was Luc Richard Mbah a Moute (14 points on five FGAs).

As for Jennings-Evans ... well, true to form, Jennings distributed more readily, while Evans owned on the scoreboard and defense. Evans won the battle and the game, but the narrative between those two will be told over the course of careers, not single nights. Can't wait until the war moves to Sacramento in March.

All told, a brilliant bounceback game for the Kings. Revenge against Chicago (just one game worse than Milwaukee right now) is next.

Kings Lose Game of the Century, If the Century is the 1300s

Ziller — Sat, 19 Dec 2009 13:27:28 -0000

More photos » by Ann Heisenfelt - AP

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You see, because in the 1300s, things basically sucked, what with the Black Death and all, so I figure there wasn't much time for basketball, so the games were bottled disaster, much like Friday's loss in Minnesota. At least with most Kings losses this season there has been entertainment value -- like the final Lord of the Rings film, you can be aggravated at the ending (a Hobbit tickle fight?! what the Frodo!) but still have enjoyed those three hours of your life. Not this game. This game was like paying $6 to see Phantom Menace in the theater: it blew, you're never getting that time back, and it actually helped ruin that which came before it (the Washington win, in our example; the New Hope trilogy in the malformed analogy). I'll never look at you the same way, George Lucas!

Just a brutal, brutal affair. In some losses, the Kings have had multiple runs at the lead -- like a half dozen, in the case of the second Spurs defeat. The Kings had negative two runs Friday night. I don't know how that happened, but it did. Tyreke Evans had his worst game in ages (despite eight assists, would have been more if the team had shot better than 43 percent from the field), Donte Greene didn't score a point in 18 minutes, Kenny Thomas didn't score a point in 20 minutes, Spencer Hawes had zero defensive rebounds in 20 minutes off the bench, the team shot 4-27 from three against a dreadful defensive club, and the team gave up 112 points in 106 possessions to the league's third worst offensive oufit. BRUTAL.

You want a bright side, beyond Omri Casspi (another brilliant scoring effort)? As this Sam Amick video attests to, Kevin Martin is shooting again ... and he's even dribbling with his left hand.

Holy talent infusion, Batman!

In praise of the Big Piranha

Stop-n-Pop — Sat, 19 Dec 2009 04:07:40 -0000

Dear Wolves Marketing:

Please start selling Kevin Love. Please see the attached video for a suggestion about how local sports franchises actually feature their players in TV ads. The ad practically writes itself: Nick Punto and Michael Cuddyer are sitting in a ice shanty on a lake watching video of Kevin Love grabbing rebound after rebound after rebound. Cuddy looks over to Punto and says something along the line of "Winter piranhas, who knew?" Fade to black and a sign that says "Come see the Big Piranha." Show the ticket hot line and cut!

Thank you,

Stop-n-Pop

Moving on, last night's post game show contained something of a big moment for the FSN crew. During the game wrap, analyst (and fellow former Bloomington Kennedy Eagle) Mike McCallow said something that we here at Hoopus have been saying since the latter part of last season: Kevin Love is the best player on this team. Yes. Yes, yes, yes, and more yes.

I know we're in danger of getting repetitive on this point, but the reason why Kevin Love is the best player on the Wolves is simple: He does the most stuff. Last night he was 9-14 from the floor with 16 boards (5 offensive) and 20 points. He controlled the defensive glass, he started fast breaks, he sealed off defenders for easy angles to the bucket for the team's guards, and he even ran a successful 1-on-1 fast break against Tyreke Evans. Al Jefferson can be the best post scorer in the league but that's probably all he could ever be. Love's impact on the game won't be as deep in a single area, but it will be much, much, much wider. When this team gets good (and it will), Kevin Love is going to be its MVP. He will be a much larger-scaled version of what Ozzie Guillen talked about here:

"That's special stuff over there," Guillen said of the Twins club. "All those guys, they don't have big money or big stars, but the way they go about their business is awesome. That's why I call them the little piranhas, because they beat you to death. I would rather someone hit a home run with the bases loaded in the ninth rather then get murdered little by little. Those guys bite you little by little and, all of a sudden, you wake up and you are dead."

Instead of extra bases and hard slides, Love will bite the other teams with hard screens, impossible tips to teammates, and outlet passes. Each one won't seem like much all by itself, but at the end of the day, someone is going to wake up dead. And yes, that's one of the best sports quotes of the decade. Thank you Ozzie.

A few notes from the game:

Why on earth did the Kings not roll with their large front court lineup of Spencer Hawes and Jason Thompson? Did the Kings' coaching staff not see what they did to Love and Jefferson last weekend?
Tyreke Evans is a dominant physical presence but he's going to have to figure out what to do on nights when his shot isn't falling.
Sasha Pavlovic is not an NBA player right now. His worst play last night was when Kevin Love screened off a wide-open angle to the lane for Pavs and instead of going right up with the layup he went under the rim and was forced to pass it off. It's almost like he's forgotten the basic language of basketball...if that makes sense.
Another win, another solid wing performance. How much more evidence do we need that the Wolves need a solid (and consistent) wing player more than anything else?

That does it for tonight. Bottom line: Kevin Love + competent wing and point play = W.

Gotta run.

Preview: Kings at Wolves

Ziller — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 20:00:26 -0000

More photos » by Rich Pedroncelli - AP

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THE OPPONENT

Remember the Timberwolves, who last Saturday fell in defeat at the boots of the Kings at ARCO. The Wolves have four victories, including one this week against Utah. Minnesota's four wins (in 26 games, whoo) have come against the Nets, the Nuggets and the Jazz twice. The Wolves have the worst point differential in the league, have the third worst shooting clip in the league, the second worst offense overall and the 24th ranked defense. The Wolves suck.

THE KEY BATTLE

Al Jefferson and Kevin Love vs. Jason Thompson and ... Andres Nocioni? No word as of press time on whether Spencer Hawes will get his starting position back. Facing a Scantron and No. 2 pencil, I would scribble the 'B' bubble, assuming 'B' is associated with 'no.' Hawes had a solid spell in relief on Wednesday, but Spencer's bad outing against Minnesota on Saturday was surely part of the eventual post-Blazers benching.

(And please do not believe Paul Westphal's spin regarding the Wizards match-up. It's been discussed insightfully by others here on StR, but seriously. He got benched. He got benched.)

There are pros and cons, to me, in benching Hawes against teams like the Wolves. First of all, one of the few strengths of Minnesota is its offensive rebounding, between Jefferson and Love. We saw Jefferson own the offensive glass early in Saturday's game. He ended up with five offensive caroms, and Love had four. Benching Hawes, no matter how disappointing he has been on the boards this season, doesn't help when Omri Casspi is the replacement. Omri is a great rebounder at his position ... which is not power forward or center. We saw Nocioni play power forward in Hawes's stead Wednesday; if Hawes sits for Omri, that'd be the case again, with Thompson marking Jefferson (and risking foul trouble) and Noc handling Love. But Noc isn't a PF-level defensive rebounder, either. You open yourself up for exploitation on the offensive glass, something we saw executed perfectly early on by Washington.

Of course, adding Omri to the Evans-Greene-Nocioni-Thompson group makes the offense wail. Casspi is a perfect match for Evans and Thompson, just perfect. So what do you do? If it were my choice, I'd either start Hawes and keep all five Kings back to help rebound (you can score on Minnesota in the halfcourt) or I'd start Kenny Thomas and Omri (the latter in place of Noc), match K-9 up against Jefferson, let Thompson take Love ... and sub in Hawes the second Jefferson sits (or as soon as Thompson picks up his second foul, whichever happens first). Ryan Hollins is a good offensive rebounder, but less of a threat to do anything with the ball and an absolute sieve on the other end.

I have a feeling we'll get Omri in the starting five with Nocioni, which means we'll get a shoot-out, which is probably best for all viewers.

BOLD PROCLAMATION

Reggie Theus will arrange for Sam Amick to be forced to sit next to Minnesota's most slovenly, smelly man.

NUMERIC PREDICTION

Kings by 6.

DETAILS

5 PM tip-off. Comcast SportsNet and KHTK 1140 AM. Just one game thread tonight, plus the post-gamer (7:45) and the recap (eventually).

Blazers Mount Comeback, Edge Kings 95-88

Ziller — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 14:02:27 -0000

More photos » by Greg Wahl-Stephens - AP

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As Paul Westphal told the media and the cameras, the Kings did not play smart basketball in the fourth quarter, particularly on offense. But there's an asterisk: the Blazers threw something at the Kings that the players on the floor were unable to adjust to. Portland so wanted to stop Tyreke Evans (who was murder in sneakers all night) they pulled Joel Przybilla all the way across the lane to provide help on just about every Evans touch. The Kings tried to clear a side to allow Evans to go one-on-one against Brandon Roy or Andre Miller, but the help came anyways. Evans was unable to get the ball efficiently to the other side of the floor, and the Kings offense went blank.

The Kings ran a couple picks-and-rolls to create space, and it worked a bit. But not enough. It wasn't the only problem for the Kings, that fourth quarter offense, but it was the one most directly tied to Sacramento's defeat. Defensive rebounding was (surprise!) the problem. Portland had 12 offensive rebounds in 37 opportunities, and every last one came from a Blazer starter. You can't blame Jason Thompson (eight defensive rebounds in 40 minutes) or Evans (seven in 33 minutes). You can, however, blame Spencer Hawes (one defensive rebound in 28 minutes), who had perhaps his worst performance of the season on both ends. I don't remember one good possession on either end for Hawes. He couldn't keep LaMarcus Aldridge from his favored spots. He couldn't keep Aldridge or Joel Przybilla off the glass. He couldn't help facilitate the offense. He couldn't score. If not for Kenny Thomas's inability to make even the most clear lay-ups and Jon Brockman's shoddy free throw stroke, Hawes would have had no reason to be on the floor. Just a massive drain. I'm sorry to rip the kid, he's one of my favorites to watch when he's on. But he was off, way off, and it needs to be written.

The problem is that when players like Thompson or even Brockman are off, they still matter. On the defensive boards. On loose balls. On defense. On the offensive glass. It's just not the case right now with Hawes, and that's both a huge personal/personnel disappointment and also a gaping hole on the court. Przybilla is mostly an offensive zero (except on the glass). But he plays great defense, and boards like a beast. When Hawes is an offensive zero, he needs to be a wall to justify playing time.

Beyond that, the Kings can find more silver lining in the 10th road loss of the year. Sacramento owned most of the game. Before Evans drew the instant doubles, he did whatever he wanted. Nate McMillan told the media he thought Evans "has a little Magic in him." The Kings competed on the road against a good team without Sergio Rodriguez adding anything, with Donte Greene and Andres Nocioni playing iffy on offense, and with Hawes a disaster. It's still progress. It's not progress we long for -- a road win, .500 again -- but it's the progress we've got. It's hard to complain too much at this juncture.

Notes:

Greene's bucket with a minute left ... wow. When you see such smooth, confident moves from The Show, you can forget a lot of turnovers or quizzical drives.
The next possession, the Kings down three: Greene plays basically perfect defense on Roy, forcing him into a leaning jumper from 15 feet, in which Roy attempts to draw the foul after failing to get a step, but Greene essentially pulls the carpet out. Blazers get an offensive rebound which essentially seals the game (or at least leads to the Jerryd Bayless baseline drive which seals the game). How did Portland get that offensive rebound? Like they get most other offensive rebounds, of course! Evans, who was guarding Aldridge on the possession (seriously), got possession for the board, but didn't turn around to box out. When the shot bounced off the rim, Aldridge grabbed Evans's left arm, holding 'Reke to the ground, effectively. Aldridge released in time to grab the board himself. Mario Elie and Bryan Gates EXPLODE on the Kings bench at the no-call. I would call it a travesty of justice if a) Portland didn't do something similar on basically every missed attempt (which means the Kings need to sell it or strike pre-emptively) and b) Thompson does the same thing. You get offensive rebounds in this league by being aggressive and a bit dirty. Portland is a lot dirty. It's why they win.
On to actual travesties of justice: those two Przybilla charges drawn? PFFFFTTTT. We have this thing in the NBA called a restricted area. Dick Bavetta should look it up on Wikipedia.

Game 26 Preview: Kings vs. Blazers

Dave — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 09:00:35 -0000

by Bill Haber - AP

Not the best defensive strategy...

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Game Time: 7:00 P.M. TV: KGW

Well, well, well...look who's making a game go of it this season. The Sacramento Kings mosey into town with a 10-12 record, third in their division and within spitting distance of .500. Unfortunately they face a Blazers team also within spitting distance of .500 from the other direction. The saliva may come from spit-takes, rage, or just a drunken stupor from trying to drown your woes, but the spit is flying in Portland nevertheless. It's never, ever good for a team that is not meeting expectations to face a team that is meeting them and more. But that's what Portland faces tonight.

Sacramento's wins have come in clumps this season. They lost 4 of 5 to start the year, rattled off 4 straight wins, followed that up with 4 straight losses, then won 4 again and lost 4 again for good measure. Unfortunately for the Blazers they won against Minnesota the other night, which would make this Win #2 of 4 for them if the pattern holds. The Kings have had a couple of quality wins (Utah, Houston) but not many. The question, as always, is whether Portland is a quality team. I'll drink my coffee while you discuss.

The Kings love to shoot and they love to score. Their 47.8% shooting clip ranks them 5^th in the league. They're also 4^th in the league in three-point shooting at 38.1%. It's easier to list the guys on their team who can't fill it up: Sean May, Ime Udoka, Desmond Mason, Kenny Thomas, Jon Brockman. Not coincidentally I just mentioned 5 of the 6 lowest players on the rotation totem pole. That means all of the guys you're going to actually see you have to defend. Five guys on the floor, all the time.

This isn't unusual for a Sacramento squad, but they're doing a couple of things to bolster their overall game this season. First they're scoring a lot of those points in the paint, and this despite having a decidedly perimeter-oriented center in Spencer Hawes. You can thank a couple of things. First, they fast-break fairly well. Second, say hello to Jason Thompson. The guy's already had 7 games of 20 points or more this year. He's shooting over 50%, drawing 5 fouls per game, nabbing 9 rebounds a night including an amazing 3.6 offensive boards...what's not to like?

And he's not even the biggest story on the Kings this year. That honor belongs to rookie point guard Tyreke Evans who in the absence of super-scorer Kevin Martin is averaging a cool 20 points, 5 rebounds, and 5 assists for the season. Take that, Brandon Jennings! He also draws fouls and he's a fair pickpocket besides.

After those two the roster gets more familiar. Point guard Beno Udrih still loves him some scoring. But this year because of all of the attention being drawn elsewhere he's averaging an incredible 55% from the field. Forward Andres Nocioni still has the green light from the three-point arc and still hits them. Spencer Hawes will face you up for the jumper and helps Thompson corral those offensive boards. Donte Green is filling in for Martin at shooting guard but is sporadic in his production. The last two names in the regular rotation have Blazer connections. Rookie small forward Omri Casspi, rumored to be on Portland's short draft list, is shooting 52% from the field, 49% from the arc, and has scored in double figures in 9 of the last 10 games he's played. And then our old friend Sergio Rodriguez haunts the Sacramento roster. He's only gotten steady playing time in the last three weeks or so but he responded with games of 16, 15, and famously 24 against the Hornets at the end of last month. Both his shooting and three-point percentages are stellar so far and he's managing to drop a few dimes in his 17-ish minutes per game.

Despite the offensive success Sacramento still faces a familiar bugaboo. They defend like a wet Kleenex. And I guarantee you the Kleenex people are angry about that reference. They allow the same marvelous 47%+ field goal clip that they shoot. Only Minnesota and New Jersey allow more fast break points per game. Their defensive efficiency is below the dreaded Golden State line. Only Memphis allows more points in the paint. As a result they score 105 and give up 105. They can't outrun their shortcomings nor can they shoot them dead. They're forced to rely on getting more good shots than their opponents. As mentioned above that's often directly related to how good the opponent is with the possible addition of how hard the opponent plays. The question, as always, is whether Portland will play hard tonight. I'll drink my coffee while you discuss.

In all seriousness this could be a bad matchup for the Blazers. The Kings play their entire available roster and run with them. The Blazers have 9 players healthy and generally prefer to walk. Portland has trouble defending 2 guys, let alone 5 at a time. The possibilities off of a single screen are staggering, especially when you consider one of their big men can shoot. They've got an aggressive point guard. They've got multiple people who have to be guarded on the perimeter. That's a lot for the Blazers to keep up with.

On the other hand the Blazers need a win tonight like Frosty needs a freezer. In case it slipped your mind it's Phoenix on Thursday then on the road for four against Orlando, Miami, Dallas, and San Antonio, then back for Denver and Philadelphia, whom the Blazers never seem to play well. Carrying three straight losses into that Phoenix game would be sad. And the month could go from sad to pathetic really quickly. Looking up at the Kings in the standings was not on Portland's to-do list for 2010. But the dawn of the new year could see exactly that if the Blazers aren't careful.

Keys to the Game

Where to start?

1. No matter what else happens the Blazers have to score. They probably need to do it by driving the lane as well. Getting into a jump-shooting contest with the Kings is a bad idea, especially with half a roster. They'll foul if you drive. Eventually they'll let you score if you drive. Just drive once in a while, please?

2. If you're looking to take points away from them the easiest places to start are the most basic: get back in transition, take away their offensive boards. LaMarcus Aldridge will almost certainly be watching Spencer Hawes tonight but he needs to remember that even though Hawes likes the jumper he will also go for offensive rebounds. Your job isn't over when the ball goes up.

3. The real problem here is that Portland needs to defend a good perimeter scorer, a good low scorer, plus guys who can drain threes around them. That screams straight man-to-man but the Blazers are spotty and prefer to throw zones and switches in there. An occasional zone might change things up but those switches on picks are going to be a killer. Remember Hawes can shoot. If you can figure out how to solve this issue with the current roster you're a better person than I. But the Blazers are going to have to do something to avoid being picked into oblivion.

4. Whatever happens, keep the energy up. Pursuant to that, I hope the crowd is into it tonight.

Final Thoughts

For the first time in a long time I don't have a great gauge on the Blazers right now. I'm not saying I can predict every game correctly but I usually have a decent feel for what kind of game it's going to be. Lately it's been a grab-bag. That's not comfortable for me and I can't imagine it's comfortable for the players involved either. Despite the offensive prowess this is a team against whom you can start dictating some things. That might be a good idea tonight.

Say hello to SactownRoyalty

Enter tonight's Jersey Contest here.

--Dave (blazersub@yahoo.com)

Sacramento's Sucking Defensive Void: What's the Problem?

Ziller — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 21:30:13 -0000

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With eyes coated glassy from gimlets of joy here in points west, there remains one striking, sucking void in the burgeoning success of the Sacramento Kings: the defense remains absolutely awful. The world's worst a year ago, the Kings defense again ranks among the dregs of the league. The real problem for armchair analysts like me is that there is no easy answer.

The team's shooting defense sucks. The team doesn't create many turnovers. The team can't rebound regularly on the defensive end. The team fouls too much.

In every aspect of defense, the Kings are worse than par. Sacramento has stayed afloat (or exceeded expectations, more like it) based on a booming offense which has rung bells from McKinley to Kilimanjaro. (Well, it's currently 7th in the league. Without all but five games of Kevin Martin. I heard at least some decorative plates rattle.) The defense has attempted to again sink this team, like a malformed anchor of youthful blindness or community distraction. (Optimists, still here, will grasp for the former.)

Rebounding is easy to diagnose: our defensive rebounders suck. Jason Thompson has improved on that end, and in total is a fine, fine rebounder. He could do well to boost his defensive rebounding more, but he's not so much a problem as a concern. Spencer Hawes is a concern, absolutely. His defensive rebounding (21 percent last year, less than 18 percent now) is abysmal -- Mikki Moore level, in fact. This isn't blame so much as observation: Hawes has devolved as a rebounder, and he was subpar for his position and size already. Now he's atrocious. Moving on out of reach of the cyanide, Andres Nocioni has been a sink, of sorts -- his 9 percent overall rebounding rate is Salmonsesque (not good) and below the sinewy, frantic Omri Casspi (nearly 10 percent). Donte Greene has not been rebounding well, either. Kenny Thomas and Jon Brockman are champions, thank you.

Turnovers fit into the team defense conceit we'll discuss more later, and fouls split time between there (later) and this easy-to-grasp statement: Jason Thompson has really got to calm down on the fouls. Brockman and Thomas actually foul more frequently than J.T., and The Show actually isn't far behind, but as Thompson plays so many minutes (necessarily, because he is awesome) his matter most. It's not fair, but the cover of Good Housekeeping ain't free, Holmes.

Shooting defense. A riddle wrapped in prosciutto. Rancid prosciutto bartered from the Slovenian black market, in our example. (Apologies, underground meat salesmen of Celje. I mean no offense. I simply take the simplest path to WTF I can find, and today that route crossed your unfortunately, smelly bridge.) Shooting defense is really tricky to unfurl, even at the team level. On an individual basis, yes, guh, muy difficulto. But at the team level, it's still tricky.

Shooting defense, to me, can be broken off into two branches: shot distribution and actual shot defense. In other words, what locations do your opponents shoot from, and how well do they hit them?

Hoopdata.com has made serious strides in public availability of this sort of data this season. Truly fantastic, in my book, which is the one you're reading. I can give you the last page right now, if you're the type who reads that. But first,

SPOILER ALERT

The Kings' opponent shot distribution ranks 15th; that is, if opponents shot league average against the Kings in every shot zone, the Kings would have the 15th ranked shooting defense. But the Kings have the 22nd ranked shooting defense, because the Kings defense actually underperforms from average; that is, the Kings let opponents shot better than they ought to.

END SPOILER ALERT

First, shot distribution. Do opponents get lots of so-called easy shots -- near the rim, threes -- against the Kings?

Sacramento is middle-of-the-pack in the frequency of opponent attempts at the rim ... a bit surprising really. (We'll come back to interior defense in a moment.) No team gives up more non-layup/dunk shots inside the paint than the Kings, though. The Kings allow the sixth lowest rate of "midrange" 10-15 foot shots, and the 10th lowest rate of long twos. (Long twos are the worst shot in basketball, by category. More specifically, long twos by Chris Duhon are the worst shot in basketball.) The Kings give up the 7th lowest rate of threes, which is a positive.

So, essentially, Kings opponents end up taking a lot of short jumpers, compared to the league at large.

But when those opponent do get to the rim, well. Damn.

The Kings have the second-worst shot defense at the rim. There's that bad interior defense peeking out. (Out of where, well, this is a family blog, let's just move on.) This can potentially be attributed to having the league's fourth-worst block rate, and also, anecdotally, not being terribly good in transition.

Moving out, the Kings actually defend short jumpers (5-10 feet) really well, like, "third best in the league" well. From 10-15 feet, Kings opponents don't hit too much, with Sacramento having the league's eighth best shot defense from there. The Kings rank 27th in shot defense from 16-23 feet (ick), but know that 16-23 foot jump shot shooting percentages tend to vacillate wildly. (Proof: Tyreke Evans is shooting 48 percent from there this year. If that lasts, I'll eat Truck Robinson's sweatband.)

The Kings don't give up a ton of three-point attempts, but they do give up a ton of makes, with the 9th-worst shot defense from beyond the arc. Opponents shot 36.5 percent from three against Sacramento, which is the equivalent of shooting 54.7 percent from two. It's not nearly as bad as last year (where opponents actually shot better than 40 percent from downtown, if you can believe it). But it's still not good.

So there you have it. The Kings have an average opponent shot distribution, but let them make way too many attempts near the rim and from behind the arc.

Now, the big question ... whoooooooo? I can't pretend to know that answer, though I will put on the record that 82games.com reports that opponent guards and centers haven't shot too terribly well against the Kings this season, but forwards have. Small forward has been the most sour defensive spot, by this source. Andres Nocioni and Omri Casspi account for 67 percent of the team's minutes at the position. It's hard to figure this with any certainty (without more data, like game-by-game, possession-by-possession data), especially considering that Paul Westphal uses such varied line-ups and Jim Eyen has installed a couple of zone schemes the team turns to often enough. It's really impossible to lay any blame on the shooting defense on any one, two or three players given the info I have. I think we can recuse the center (Hawes, who has played 56 percent of the team's center minutes, and against whom centers are shooting far worse than they have against other Kings with minutes at the position, namely Thompson), but no one else at this point. (Guard penetration affects shooting percentages across the board -- we can't blame Nocioni if a guard gets past Evans or Udrih and forces rotations which leave Nocioni's man with airspace.)

I have thrice begun a paragraph in which I blame a player thoughtfully given the information I have, but ... nope. Wouldn't do it. I can't say for sure, and I'd rather be silent than wrong.

The Jonny Pod

Stop-n-Pop — Sun, 13 Dec 2009 23:54:56 -0000

I know I promised a double game wrap so let's quickly deal with the Laker game before moving along to the tilt that, unfortunately, says the most about Our Beloved Puppies: The Lakers are the best team in the NBA and there is no shame in losing to a team that could end up as one of the all-time greats. The end. As for the Kings...

I'm a big Apple fan but one of the things I can't stand the most about the company is their willingness to spring new products on their consumers with little or no warning. My personal experience dates back to the little iPod you see above. I went out and bought that little doohicky about a week, maybe two, before the iPod video launched.

I enjoyed my iPod. It iPoded well and was able to hold nearly all of my music. Yet, it probably became irrelevant at just about the time I bought it.

And so begins the career of Jonny Flynn in a league with Tyreke Evans.

I'm not really sure what the correct word is for what Evans did to Flynn last night but here are several that I think should qualify for a chance at the title: eaten, mangled, transmorgified, cold-cocked, and stampled (I made this one up). Whatever it is, I'm sure we Wolves fans will have more than enough up-close opportunities to figure it out over the next however many years.

The most disappointing thing about last night's game wasn't the action on the court. The Wolves played well early on their 4th game in 5 nights spanning from Toronto to Minneapolis to LA to Sacramento and they lost Ryan Gomes to an ugly ankle injury. It was one of those games where you can probably talk yourself into chalking the loss up to a little bit of a lack of effort, a little bit of indifference, and a whole lot of "let's get out of here". What was most disappointing about the game is that for all the talk of two top draft picks, Ricky Rubio, and future assets, the Kings--a franchise that was below the crap-ass level of the 2008/09 Wolves--fell into a bit of luck (see Evans, Tyreke) and are now miles and miles and miles beyond the Wolves. A bad game is a bad game is a bad game is a bad game (believe me, I watch the Wolves) but last night's demolition was something more. It was a realization that the Kings have something that cannot be answered by Jonny Flynn or Ricky Rubio....to say nothing of what Jason Thompson and a legit 7 footer (Spencer Hawes) means for the Wolves' front line.

For 4 quarters Evans had his way with the Wolves' back court. From post ups to Manu-esque below-the-rim drives to the hoop the guy got what he wanted when he wanted it and he did so primarily because of his physicality. He physically dominated his position more than anyone else on the court. I know we talked about his physical upside in the lead up to the draft but....well, there it was on full display. The guy is LeBron James at the point, and yes, I went there. Maybe Manu with muscles is more like it. Congrats to the Kings for finding the bit of luck that all franchises need to make the big jump from level to level.

Who is that guy for the Wolves? Well, if there is one thing to hope for it is that John Calipari can go 3-3 with dominant lead guards in the NBA Draft. If Derrick Rose is the speedster and Tyreke Evans is the physical powerhouse, here's hoping that John Wall is a magical combination of the two and that the Wolves finally end up with the top pick.

Wrapping this up, last night's loss had more to do with roster management than anything else. The Wolves have fallen behind yet another young bad team that they were ostensibly ahead of last season. At least they didn't find themselves in this position because they passed on or traded Evans in the draft. Kahn's got that going for him.

Until later.