SB Nation - Bobby Brown

Sacramento's Point Guards, 2008-09 vs 2009-10

Ziller — Sat, 28 Nov 2009 18:00:38 -0000

by Mark Weber - AP

A quick survey of Sacramento's point guard play last season, in comparison (err, in contrast) with this year's play at the position. Remember that PER has 15 set as the league average.

2008-09
Beno Udrih, 12.3 PER
Bobby Jackson, 12.4 PER
Bobby Brown, 7.7 PER

2009-10
Tyreke Evans, 17.4 PER
Beno Udrih, 16.2 PER
Sergio Rodriguez, 18.3 PER

The head of the dragon does a lot to dictate where the body goes. Clearly, this year's version has been a huge improvement.

Regarding Vince Carter's Jump-Shot-Happy Ways

Ben Q Rock — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 19:00:25 -0000

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Note: all statistics in this post are current based on games played before November 18th, 2009; it was written prior to the Orlando Magic's game against the Oklahoma City Thunder last night.

When the Orlando Magic traded for Vince Carter this summer, they did so to add his scoring punch and late-game reliability. Coach Stan Van Gundy said as much during Carter's introductory press conference:

I think with Vince, you can give him the ball anywhere on the floor and he can isolate and create a shot either for himself or a teammate on his own. Plus, if you look at the numbers like we do all the time and I don’t think that he’s got enough credit for this, Vince has been throughout his career, one of the best fourth quarter and end-of-game guys in this league, in terms of production. He’s been a guy that has always come through down the stretch in games. I think that’s huge.

With a career scoring average of 23.5 points per game headed into the season, and coming off a season in which he averaged 20.8 points, Van Gundy's assessment was reasonable. With the Magic, Carter's averaged a career-low 17 points per game, which sounds bad until one considers he's averaging a career-low 28.9 minutes per game as well. However, he's been a solid addition so far, mostly for his off-the-charts three-point shooting percentage of 44.2%. And he's already come up big in a key situation, drilling the clinching three-pointer earlier this week against the Charlotte Bobcats.

Anecdotally, Carter has avoided driving the ball to the basket in recent seasons, preferring instead to shoot from the outside. He's thus earned a reputation for laziness, not to mention softness; this quote from an NBA scout has become a favorite among Carter detractors:

"I bet no player in the history of the league has gone to the locker room and come out again more than Vince Carter. In the history of the league."

I've found many of these accusations unfounded. After all, Vince still drives the ball to the basket authoritatively, and although he indeed makes relatively frequent visits to the locker room, he's missed only 16 games combined in the last 5 seasons before this one.

Unfortunately, this year he's playing into both stereotypes, as the data below the fold will illustrate.

Foul-Drawing and Shot-Selection Statistics for Vince Carter, 2005/06-2009/10 NBA Seasons
Season	Foul- Drawing Rate	FTA/36 mins	%Jump	Jump eFG%	%Inside	Inside eFG%	Usg Rt
2009/10	4.8	2.9	84	56.0%	16	37.5%	26.4
2008/09	10.4	5.0	75	47.2%	25	45.8%	26.8
2007/08	11.3	5.2	67	46.2%	33	55.9%	25.6
2006/07	12.1	6.6	66	46.4%	34	58.0%	30.8
2005/06	13.3	7.4	67	43.0%	33	55.6%	32.3
Statistics from Basketball-Reference.com and 82games.com

Indeed, Carter's foul-drawing rate and per-minute-adjusted free-throw attempts have declined in each of the last 4 seasons, which coincides with an increase in jump-shot attempts. There are two ways to interpret these data: he's gotten lazy, or he's adapted his game to compensate for his waning athleticism. And it's not as though he's driving less frequently because he's taken on a secondary role in the offense, as his usage rate is still quite high. In fact, among all players who have played at least 200 minutes and who have a usage rate of at least 26, only Bobby Brown averages fewer free-throw attempts per 36 minutes than Carter does.

The obvious asterisk here is that it's still early in the season, so there are fewer data points here compared to prior seasons. The fact that he's recovering from a sprained ankle suffered in the second game of the season may also explain his heavily increased reliance on the jumper; he may return to form once his ankle returns to full health. But even in the season opener, jumpers comprised 8 of his 12 shots. He went 1-of-3 inside and drew one pair of free throws, which indicates that his ankle probably isn't the only contributing factor to his increase in jump-shot attempts.

Regardless of why he's driving to the basket less often, it's clear (at least to me) that he needs to correct that tendency during Jameer Nelson's extended absence. Orlando will need to fill-in Nelson's production somehow, and Jason Williams can't do it himself; Carter and Rashard Lewis figure to see more touches with Nelson out. Carter won't continue to shoot the lights out for the whole season, so he'll need to find other ways to be effective. Earning free-throw attempts, and finishing at a better rate inside, will go a long way toward ensuring that the Magic's offense stays afloat with Nelson sidelined.

Rumor: Orlando Magic to Meet with Free-Agent Point Guard Antonio Daniels

Ben Q Rock — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 22:53:19 -0000

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There are conflicting reports of the Orlando Magic's desire to add a third point guard in the wake of starter Jameer Nelson's knee injury, which will sideline him for 4-to-6 weeks. GM Otis Smith told the Orlando Sentinel yesterday that he's not in a hurry to sign another point guard, as he'd like to see how Jason Williams and Anthony Johnson fare first. However, Alex Kennedy of RealGM reports that Tony Dutt, who represents free-agent point guard Antonio Daniels, is in Orlando and expects to meet with the team tonight.

UPDATE: Dutt confirmed to the Orlando Sentinel that he did indeed contact the Magic on Daniels' behalf:

"I talked to Otis about Antonio after Jameer got hurt. But I think they are going to wait a few days if they do anything," Dutt said by phone.

Dutt said that the Magic could sign Daniels, 34, to a non-guaranteed contract.

Our original story is after the jump.

I'm not sure what to think of this rumor, as I tend to believe Smith when he says he'd rather not make a knee-jerk move. However, Daniels appears to be the sort of player Smith would value, given his experience (12 years) and usually mistake-free play (career pure point rating of 5.2). It's a bit worrisome that his turnover rate has increased in each of the last 5 seasons, from a stellar 9.3% in 2004/2005 to a garish 18.1% last season.

Also adding kick to this rumor is that Dutt and Smith aren't strangers, as Smith has signed Dutt clients Rashard Lewis and Brandon Bass as free-agents during his tenure as Orlando's GM.

Daniels split last season between the Washington Wizards and the New Orleans Hornets. The Hornets sent him to the Minnesota Timberwolves in a deal for Bobby Brown and Darius Songaila in September; Minnesota released him at his request. He had a workout with the Cleveland Cavaliers, who would like to add another guard due to the uncertainty surrounding the troubled Delonte West, earlier this month, but a deal with them never materialized.

In 867 career games, Daniels has averaged 7.6 points, 3.4 assists, and 1.1 turnovers. We'll hold off on any further analysis until the Magic either confirm or deny the rumor.

Confirmed: Hornets Terrible

DexterFishmore — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 06:03:23 -0000

This one's for you, DJ!

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When Phil Jackson decides to retire as coach of the Los Angeles Lakers, someone, somewhere will float the idea that Byron Scott should get the gig. Whether emanating from those feeling nostalgic for the Showtime years or (much more likely) from his agent, Byron's name is sure to come up. And when it does, I want Jerry Buss and Mitch Kupchak to break out the tape from tonight's game.

The Lakers hammered Scott's New Orleans Hornets for a 104-88 victory whose outcome was assured two minutes into the third quarter. Looking even worse than their now 2-5 record, the Hornets were a toxic mess. Their offense couldn't manage even a point per possession against a Lakers team playing without Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol. Their defense allowed 1.17 points per possession even though the oft-maligned Laker reserves played 43% of the available minutes. At the end of the first and beginning of the second periods, Chris Paul moldered on the bench for over six minutes while the Lakers built a double-digit lead. And Scott insisted on playing guards Bobby Brown and Devin Brown, total zeroes who were completely overmatched in this game and probably shouldn't be in the league, ahead of demonstrably superior rookies Marcus Thornton and Darren Collison.

I'm not even a Hornets fan and I'm outraged by this. It's unacceptable that a magnificent talent like Paul has to spend the next three seasons with this turd of a team. I just hope Coach Byron Scott forever remains someone else's problem.

As for the Lake Show tonight, it was an awesome first half by Kobe Bryant, followed by a very solid mop-up performance from the bench. DJ Mbenga had a double-double [Ed.: mmm... double-double... I'll take two please], Shannon Brown tossed in 15 and Ron Artest and Lamar Odom both had strong overall stat lines in limited minutes.

More to come about this one in the morning. In the meantime, here's your box score, and the tempo-free numbers are below. The Lakers are 6-1.

	Poss.	TO%	FTA/ FGA	FT%	EFG%	TS%	Off Reb%	Def Reb%	PPP
L.A.	89	13	0.22	89	54	58	27	71	1.17
N.O.	90	14	0.27	83	41	46	29	73	0.98

P.S. - If you haven't done so, please also read commenter Justin N's Fanpost with his thoughts on the season so far, available here. It's good stuff and worth your time.

Game 5: Hive Live

hldomingue — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 07:33:17 -0000

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Dallas 107 (3–2) | New Orleans 114 (2–3)

Great game. Any win at all would have been acceptable; however, the Hornets dialed it up a notch and found a way to win even in the face of adversity (aka Dallas, which is a way better team than Sacramento).

After flying out the gates and finishing the first with an 8 point lead, the Hornets started to sag while the Mavs, who started cold, began hitting open looks all over the court. The lead continued to change hands for the rest of the game until the end, when the Mavs were up 4 with 16 seconds to play to play. Things looked pretty bleak from section 325, and the Hornets seemed to be headed to yet another loss; a hard fought loss, yes, but a loss all the same.

One CP offensive foul and 4 missed Dallas free throws later, the Hornets find themselves down by 3 with 9 seconds to play and deem Peja "0 for the night and then some" Stojakovic the man to fire the tying shot... and he drains it. Un.be.lieve.able.

The Mavs went ice cold in OT, and really, that's all she wrote. The Hornets finished the contest with the advantage in every statistical category but blocks and three-point percentage. Perhaps the most important part was the Hornets owning the paint in the second half. They were able to penetrate and out duel the Mavs to the tune of 26 to 14 down low.

Bullets after the jump.

As we've noted, Chris Paul, who became the third-fastest player to tally his 3000th assist on Monday night, is freaking amazing. As such, it was no surprise that he finished the evening to the tune of 39 points (on 61% shooting), 7 assists, 5 rebounds, 2 steals, and perfect from the stripe.
Jason Terry was also on fire tonight. He single-handedly kept Dallas in the game and made me write a plethora of expletives (in all caps, mind you) in my little notepad. When an opponent drops 35 points (on 66% shooting) on us, I tend to get annoyed. Must be what everyone else in the league feels about CP.
Front court was solid for the Bees tonight as well. Sure, they got jammed up a few times playing zone D (though it looked like we played a fair amount of man to man as well), but Emeka and DX combined for with 36 points (on 60% shooting) 23 boards, 8 assists, 4 steals, 3 blocks, and 3 turnovers. Damn, that feels good.
While we're singing their praises, I'll go ahead and thank both of our starting bigs for the superb job they did locking down Dirk. The Big German finished the night with only 12 points and went 4 of 15 from the field. The refs were letting the boys play under the hoops, which led to a few tiffs, and ultimately, I think Dirk's frustration won out. His shortcomings (and his 6th foul with two and a half minutes to play in regulation) was as crucial to the W as those missed FTs from Terry and Berea.
Shawn Marion was also not much of a factor in this game. 8 points (on 33% shooting), 6 boards, 2 blocks, and 5 turnovers. I wasn't expecting "The Matrix Reloaded" or anything, but that's pretty mediocre/bad for a guy who logged 39 minutes.
Bobby "My Prerogative" Brown continued to launch shots (some of which were ill-advised), but managed to sink more than half of them, finishing with 18 points. I still think we're doing a disservice to Collison by letting someone as irresponsible as Brown live ahead of him in the depth chart, but for tonight, Brown was worth his salt (even if I cringed for every shot he took).
And one final thought: late in the game Emeka picked up a loose ball after a missed CP layup and slammed it home. After I was done clapping, though, I realized that we really don't dunk anymore. Ever since Tyson left, it just doesn't happen much. Of course, I'll take Mek's post moves any day over a guy who has to be under the hoop to score, but I'd be lying if I said I didn't miss the excitement.

Composed to: It's My Life by Talk Talk

The Opponents Take: Mav's Moneyball

Hornet Lose to Celtics: A Visual Recap

atthehive — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 04:38:10 -0000

/Pregame, teams warming up in shootaround

"Hey, psst. Bobby. Over here."

"Oh hi coach!! You see 30 Rock las-"

"Yo cool it. A little closer.. there you go. Got a special assignment for you."

"Yeah?"

"Yeah. You know, we haven't been getting it done this season. New game plan tonight. Basically, it's all gonna come down to you. It's on you Bobby. You against the Celtics. You against the world."

"Me against the world."

"You against the world."

/Their eyes interlock. Time and space stand still.

"Hey, what's going on guys!"

"Oh... hi David! Um, nothing! Nothing! Why would anything be going on?"

"Just trying to be friendly.."

/Moves off to the side, practices scowl

"That was close. Off to the bench now Bobby, or the game will be up!"

/The Game begins.

/scores
/scores
/scores
/scores

"Bobby! We're in trouble! Get in there!"

/Bricks shot
/Airballs
/Hits top of backboard

/Hornets call timeout

"Yo coach, sup. What up, what's the deal here."
"Don't worry about it."

/Loses ball

"Boo ya"
/Clangs off back iron

"This what they came to see"

/Hoists 30 footer with 20 seconds on the shot clock

"Yo COACH"

/Bricks

"COACH!"

/Bad Pass

/Hornets lose

/attempts to follow Celtics into locker room to switch teams

"Me against the world."

Preview: Kings at Hornets

Exhibit G — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 20:00:33 -0000

Before we get to the preview for your Sacramento Kings versus the New Orleans Hornets, I think I must first make an important public service announcement regarding the season opener:

We've been through one game. It did not go how we had hoped it might. But it was one game. This game is the second game. After this, we have 80 more. You'd think we be able to handle a loss a little better after we all endured last season, but apparently we still need to talk a few folks away from the edge.

Let me say that this will still be a long season for us as fans of this franchise. We'll enjoy the highs, we'll look for silver linings in our losses. Just remember that we cannot live and die with each win or loss. All signs point to the idea that we will experience more losses than wins this season. Look for small victories where we can.

Along those lines, was anybody not a little bit inspired with the way Casspi played last night? Look for those little things. Those are the aspects of the game that we can enjoy, even in tough losses.

All that being said, yesterday's recap thread was incredible. Great discussion all around. Kudos to everyone. That's the sort of thing that makes me proud to be a member of this site.

Now, on to the preview of tonight's game.

Opening Thought

This should be a compelling match-up. Both teams are on pace to end the season 0-82. But after this game, one team will be on pace to go 41-41. I'm no mathematician, but that seems like a sweet deal.

Thoughts I Stole From Section214

Section was once again kind enough to leave his notepad out on his desk. Ya'll know how much I enjoy stealing things, so here it goes...

Tonight's coaching match-up will be a showdown between what is and what might have been. Byron Scott's name was bantered about during this summer's coaching search. Considering he was still under contract to New Orleans at the time, you've got to imagine that his seat might be feeling a bit warm if they end up 0-82. Scott should hope they end up on pace for 41-41.

Former King Peja Stojakovic is now coming off the bench for the Hornets. As Section noted, this is a bench that scored only 20 points and collected only 9 rebounds in 95 minutes against the Spurs. For all the criticism that has been heaped upon Geoff Petrie in regards to overpaying players, I think we should recognize that Petrie successfully unloaded Peja, got assets in return, and didn't overpay.

Speaking of which, interesting to note that Peja is joined on the Hornets by former Kings Darius Songalia, Ike Diogu and Bobby Brown. Ah, memories.

Section214's match-up to watch: Spencer Hawes vs. Julian Wright. Although we probably won't see them face off head to head, recall that Wright was on the board when the Kings drafted Hawes. Take a gander, see what we might have ended up with instead, and make of it what you will.

Tyreke Evans' debut was less than stellar. Whatever the cause, a match-up against Chris Paul is a less than ideal second test. CP3 will make Evans look bad at various points throughout the game. Try to recall the context when lambasting our rookie. If Bobby Brown makes Evans look horrible, you may throw the context in my face as you lambast the rookie.

In the preview for the season opener I mentioned that the frontcourt for the Thunder would be kinder to the Kings than most match-ups this season. I don't think the statement was wrong, I think it just shows us the state of our current frontcourt. It is...less than good. Facing Emeke Okafor and David West will probably demonstrate this to us again.

The Kings lack of frontcourt depth is rivaled by the Hornets, who bring Songalia and Hilton Armstrong off the bench. Our best hope is that Okafor and West, the untalented defenders that they are, resort to a hack-a-Sean-May defense early and often.

Diogu could also potentially come off the bench, but since this is the second game of the season and not the last 2 games of the season, we should be ok.

For Your Added Entertainment

Mr. Section214 also devised a fun game for your viewing pleasure. He suggests picking when you believe the following events happen. I also believe that this could be a hell of a drinking game if you don't particularly feel like being conscious for the second half.

Pick the time in the game that the following will happen –

Sean May gets his first rebound of the season.

Tyreke Evans shoots a layup.

Tyreke Evans makes a layup.

Jason Thompson gets called for his first foul.

Jason Thompson actually commits his first foul.

Spencer Hawes enters the game.

Spencer Hawes pisses off someone within the game thread.

Kevin Martin draws his first foul.

Andres Nocioni draws his first blood.

We make our first basket.

We call our first timeout.

Emeka Okafor and David West are officially inducted into the NBA Hall of Fame.

Omri Casspi and James Posey square off.

Mario Elie and Byron Scott square off.

The Details, in Which I'm Told The Devil Is In

Game is at 5:05 PM PDT. Televised coverage on Comcast Sports Net. Go Kings!

2009 Season Preview

Stop-n-Pop — Sat, 17 Oct 2009 08:00:25 -0000

Team Name: Minnesota Timberwolves

Last Year's Record: 24-58

Key ~~Losses~~ Additions By Subtraction: Calvin Booth, Bobby Brown, Rodney Carney, Jason Collins, Randy Foye, Mark Madsen, Rashad McCants, Mike Miller, Kevin Ollie, Craig Smith, Sebastian Telfair, Shelden Williams, Kevin McHale.

Honorary Member of the Addition By Subtraction club: Mark Blount.

Key Additions: Wayne Ellington, Jonny Flynn, Ryan Hollins, Sasha Pavlovic, Oleksiy Pecherov, Jared Reiner, Ramon Sessions, Damien Wilkins, Kurt Rambis, Bill Laimbeer, Reggie Theus, Dave Wohl.

1. What significant moves were made during the off-season?

Grab a chair folks, this could take a while.

I think the best way to illustrate just how much has happened here in Wolves Land is to take a look at last year's opening day starting line up:

Randy Foye
Mike Miller
Corey Brewer
Ryan Gomes
Al Jefferson

...add in the key reserves:

Kevin Ollie
Rashad McCants
Rodney Carney
Craig Smith
Kevin Love

...compare them to the line up and reserves from the last game of the 08/09 season (and yes, Kevin McHale thought it would be a good idea to give the paying customers at the Target Center their own special version of a Seniors Night):

Kevin Ollie/Sebastian Telfair/Bobby Brown
Mike Miller/Rodney Carney
Brian Cardinal/Ryan Gomes
Mark Madsen/Kevin Love/Craig Smith
Jason Collins/Shelden Williams

...before finally taking a peak at the rotation in the team's first 2009/10 preseason game against Milwaukee:

Jonny Flynn/Ramon Sessions/Mustafa Shakur
Corey Brewer/Sasha Pavlovic/Wayne Ellington
Ryan Gomes/Damien Wilkins
Kevin Love/Brian Cardinal
Al Jefferson/Ryan Hollins/Jared Reiner

Let's take a quick peak at those starting/closing day lineups with the dearly departed x'd out of existence:

~~Randy Foye/Kevin Ollie~~
~~Mike Miller/Rashad McCants~~
Corey Brewer/~~Rodney Carney~~
Ryan Gomes/~~Craig Smith~~
Al Jefferson/Kevin Love

~~Kevin Ollie/Sebastian Telfair/Bobby Brown~~
~~Mike Miller/Rodney Carney~~
Brian Cardinal/Ryan Gomes
~~Mark Madsen~~/Kevin Love/~~Craig Smith~~
~~Jason Collins/Shelden Williams~~

And no, I do not believe there is another team in the league with only three remaining players from the rotation of their final 08/09 game. Only the Raptors come close.

What did the Wolves lose?

Net Production by Position

Position	FGA	eFG%	FTA	iFG	Reb	Ast	T/O	Blk	PF	Pts	PER*
PG	-0.5	-.061	-1.5	0%	-1.9	-0.7	-0.2	-0.0	-1.1	-3.8	-7.0
SG	0.1	-.034	-0.1	4%	0.1	-0.3	-0.2	-0.0	-0.3	-1.1	-2.4
SF	-3.5	+.001	-2.5	-1%	0.9	0.5	-0.5	0.1	-0.8	-5.5	-4.2
PF	0.3	-.016	-0.3	8%	-0.2	0.3	-0.6	-0.9	-0.3	-0.5	-2.3
C	6.1	-.057	2.1	4%	1.8	-0.9	0.2	-1.1	0.8	6.0	+2.4

They gave up a whole lot of nothing at the point, a Randy-Foye-January-fueled-it-was-really-worse-than-the-final-numbers-suggest basket of crap at the off-guard, a bowl of ineptitude at the 3, some holy-crap-there-is-nobody-behind-Love at the 4, and Al Jefferson and Kevin Love at the 5.

Enter David Kahn.

While I think it is safe to say that most Wolves fans who were paying attention at the time of his hiring (all 1,700 of us) were upset that the team seemed to have bumbled its way through its most important new addition in years (Kahn seemed to be a secondary choice and candidates from the Blazers and Spurs appear to have walked away from the position), The Demolition Man quickly and confidently made a series of moves that have placed the Wolves in a position to win.

He turned Kevin McHale, Jerry Sichting, and Dean Cooper into Kurt Rambis, Reggie Theus, Bill Laimbeer, and Dave Wohl.
He turned two moderate-sized expiring contracts into Ricky Rubio.
He turned a Sebastian Telfair/Kevin Ollie point guard rotation into a Jonny Flynn/Ramon Sessions one.
He picked up an athletic big who can play the reserve 4/5.
He drafted the 2nd best shooter in the draft late in the 1st round.
He cleared (probably) between $13-15 milion in 2010 cap space.
He picked up another 2010 first round pick.

Best of all, Kahn has made the Wolves interesting again. The process has been full of goofy quotes, funny interviews, nearly weekly roster moves, and the entire Ricky Rubio saga, but the bottom line for Kahn and the Wolves is the results:

Their core is good and tremendously young.
They have drafted the 2 best Euros in the past 2 drafts and stashed them overseas.
They have 3 likely 1st round picks in the 2010 draft.
They will have in the neighborhood of $15 million below the cap in 2010 free agency.
Chances are, they now have a functional point guard on their roster.

This thing is clearly still a work in progress (the team needs help on the wing and the Rubio situation still needs to be resolved one way or another) but it is also clearly pointed in the right direction.

2. What are the team's biggest strengths?

Rebounding. Rebounding. Rebounding, and more rebounding. Kevin Love is one of the league's top 3 rebounders, Al Jefferson's game is built to be close to the bucket and he collects a net positive on the offensive boards, and Corey Brewer can hold his own at either the 2 or 3. If there is a player from last year's squad to get a little chippy about his departure, it is Mike Miller. Despite not shooting the damn ball, Miller was a very solid defensive rebounder and it will take a well above average effort from Pavlovic, Brewer, and Gomes to match Miller's efforts on the glass at the 2/3. Miller was the team's 3rd best rebounder and he did so from the wing. That's going to be harder to make up than what I think most people first realize, especially with the crew of Pavlovic, Brewer, Gomes, and Ellington trying to make up the difference. Ramon Sessions should make up for some of the lost rebounding production vis-a-vis Sebastian Telfair, but Miller's loss probably will have some effect on the glass. How much is something that remains to be seen.

In theory, the Wolves should also be a very good free throw shooting team this season. Last year Ramon Sessions had the 25th best FT/FG rate in the league at 36. Kevin Love was 18th at 39. Big Al was all the way down at 154 with 19. By all accounts in college, summer league, and his small sample of preseason games, Jonny Flynn has all the makings of a high-contact guard who will draw a lot of fouls in an up-tempo system. Last year the Wolves had one fairly legit threat of getting to the line at a high rate: Kevin Love. This year they have 3 players who should draw a ton of contact with one guy (Jefferson) who will have a modest rate but a high volume due to his number of touches.

It's pretty hard for me to overstate just how big of a deal improved free throw shooting will be for the Wolves. Last year the Wolves averaged 2.3 fewer FTAs than their opponents. The year before that they were a league-worst -6.9 in that category (which should give you an idea of the relative merits between Kevin Love and Craig Smith). For a team with a -4.9 point differential these are points that simply cannot be left on the board. With the addition of Sessions and Flynn, and with the continued development of Love, the Wolves appear to have addressed one of their biggest weaknesses of the past 2-3 years and turned it, hopefully, into a positive. For those readers who are just casual fans of the game, I cannot stress enough how important the free throw differential is to the bottom line. I also cannot stress enough just how bad the Wolves have been on this front over the past several years.

The final thing the Wolves are going to be good at is physicality. This is something that will be pretty hard to define over the course of the year but I have a pretty good feeling that they are going to be scrappy. One of the most striking things about their play in camp was they way in which guys like Love, Brewer, Sessions, and Ryan Hollins were getting after it. This has a chance of positively impacting the play on the end of the court they need help with the most. I'm not saying that they are going to be a defensive dynamo, but this year's squad has the opportunity to run out a rotation of Sessions, Brewer, Pavlovic, Jefferson/Love, and Ryan Hollins, which is a fairly significant defensive upgrade over anything they were able to offer up in the 08/09 campaign. This especially becomes the case if Brewer develops into the plus-defender we all hope he can morph in to. Sessions/Brewer/Pavlovic has the potential to turn the epic defensive weakness of Telfair/Foye/Miller into a positive for this club. It's probably not a lineup you'd run out there for long stretches of time, but it is something that this club did not have at its disposal under McHale. All three of those players held their 08/09 opponents to below their average production. The same could not be said for Telfair (-0.009% of opponents' average), Foye (whose opponents went 10.8% over their average production against the former Villanova star), and Miller (a mere 5.6% over average production). If you throw Ryan Hollins into the mix, the Wolves may have something approaching an effective defensive unit that they could trot out on the floor for 4-8 minutes per night.

3. What are the team's biggest weaknesses?

Defense, wing play, turnovers, and outside shooting. I don't really know if there is a good way to break this down in much greater detail but the Wolves are still going to have problems on defense; their 2 and 3 will be manned by a rotation of Corey Brewer, Wayne Ellington, Sasha Pavlovic, and Ryan Gomes, and their backcourt will be led by 2 point guards who will be in their first year with the team. David Kahn has been pretty frontal in his assessment that Gomes and Brewer are both in put up or shut up years. Pavlovic is on a 1-year contract. Nothing is promised or owed to any of these players and if they can't figure it out this year, I think it is becoming more and more obvious that when the Wolves do cash in their draft/free agency chips, it will be for a wing player. At media day and during camp both Gomes and Brewer said enough to make everyone well aware of the fact that they too know the score. As you can see from the positional chart listed above, the score on the wing isn't exactly in the Wolves' favor to begin with.

While I mentioned the possibility of a fairly solid perimeter defensive rotation with Sessions, Brewer, and Pavlovic, the fact remains that there is nothing on this team to suggest a significant overall improvement in defensive efficiency. Until we see some improvement in action, it's hard to believe it in theory. Ryan Hollins gives them a lengthy shot blocker but he fouls a ton. Corey Brewer has the potential to be an A+ defender but he is coming back from injury and is close to completely ineffective on the offensive end of the court. Ramon Sessions is a slightly above average defender at the point but he could end up with a lot of minutes at the 2. The point here is that even with the defensive positives the Wolves have some issues when it comes to weighing their best overall lineups against their best defensive ones. I'd be peachy keen with anything close to a neutral OE/DE ratio.

It can also not be overstated just how bad of an outside shooting club the Wolves are going to be this year. Wayne Ellington is probably their best shooter, their likely starting two guard (Brewer) has a career .250 three point average, their best point guard has 41 career three point attempts (with a .220 average), and Sasha Pavlovic's numbers from beyond the arc have seen a four-year fluctuation of .365, .405, .298, and .410. Could Ryan Gomes be the team's best outside shooter? If that's the case, then the Wolves are in for a long, long year from a perimeter shooting perspective. It's already proving to be a big problem in their limited preseason action.

4. What are the goals for this team?

a- At least a neutral OE/DE rating. Last year the Wolves had a -5.3 point gap per 100 possessions. While this was an improvement over the -7.4 point gap per 100 possessions from the year before, it still is a giant pile of suck. With the addition of a real starting point guard, and the maturation of Kevin Love, here's hoping the Wolves can pick up 2-3 pp/100 poss on the offensive side of the ball and that the return of Brewer and the addition of Sessions and Pavlovic can gain a point or two on the defensive side of things.

b- An increase in pace and shots within the first 10-15 seconds of the shot clock. If the Wolves' new offensive is going to pay dividends we should see an increased pace with more shots taken in transition. 36% of the Wolves' shots in 2008/09 were in the first 10 seconds of the shot clock and 26% came in the next 5. If those numbers go up, it means the Wolves are running and getting opportunistic buckets. Last year the Wolves finished 15th in the league with 91.6 possessions/game. That number needs to go up.

c- Free throw neutrality (or more). As mentioned above, the Wolves should have an increase in free throw attempts this season. I have been harping on this point for two years now: You can't win games while losing by a mile at the free throw line. It can't be done. Between Kevin Love, Ramon Sessions, and Jonny Flynn, the Wolves have three guys who can really draw contact and get to the charity stripe.

d- Injury free.Will Kevin Love break the Wolves' 2nd year injury curse? From Shaddy to Foye to Brewer, 2nd year draft Wovles draft picks have all suffered season-ending injuries in their 2nd campaign. This is one curse that needs to be broken this year. (UPDATE: Of course, as this goes to post, Kevin Love breaks a bone in his left hand and will likely be out 6-8 weeks.)

5. Did David Kahn screw the pooch on draft night?

Let me begin by giving a simple yes or no: No. However, the (excellent) addition of Ramon Sessions begs the question of whether or not the Wolves could have walked away from the Draft with Rubio and, say, Demar DeRozan instead of Jonny Flynn. Sure, it would have been a big bet to wait out for Sessions, and who knows what would have happened with Sessions' negotiations if Rubio stayed in Europe and Flynn wasn't sitting there as a sure replacement, but..well, it's pretty hard to ignore the fact that the Wolves had two big first rounders and a free agent signing over the summer and they were all at the same position. Yes, it's at a position that has killed the Wolves since the days of Sam Cassell but isn't there a nagging little thought in the back of your head that is whispering "it could have been done better?" I think Kahn has done a terrific job but it will ultimately depend on which point guard(s) stick around in 2-3 years and how much he can get with the one (or two) that gets sent away. Will that equation end up being more valuable than the previously mentioned Rubio/DeRozan/Sessions combo? Who knows?

Projected Finish: 31-51

Poll

How many games will the Wolves win this year?

Less than 15

28 votes

16-20

83 votes

21-25

147 votes

26-30

183 votes

31-35

83 votes

More than 35

30 votes

554 votes | Poll has closed

Thunder Gameday: Oklahoma City Thunder at New Orleans Hornets

Mr Pappagiorgio — Sat, 10 Oct 2009 13:30:22 -0000

The first thing you need to know about tonight's second pre-season game is that it isn't "tonight's" game at all, its actually an EARLY afternoon game, which tips off at 1pm Local time. Once again, the game won't be televised, and you're only chance to watch this one is going to be listening to WWLS, The Sports Animal, on FM 98.1 / AM 640 in the Oklahoma City area, or on 97.1 FM in the Tulsa Area. Again if there is anyone out there with a little bit of pull or power that wants to push for all the pre-season games to be televised next season, we'd certainly appreciate it, and I think just by me watching the game it'll have better ratings that "Matlock" and "In the Heat of the Night" which apparently was more important for KSBI to broadcast than showing a Thunder pre-season game. So if you can get that taken care of for us, I'm sure all us die hard Thunder fans would appreciate it.

As the Oklahoman points out in this article, essentially four players are battling for one roster spot. Those guys are Ryan Bowen, Mike Harris, Tre Kelley, and local boy Michael Ruffin. In the Thunder's first pre-season game the other night against the Memphis Grizzlies, Ryan Bowen got a nice chunk of playing time to show what he could do, while the other 3 guys watched from the bench. Bowen got 21 minutes of playing time which he used to take just 2 shots, both of which he missed (1 of which was a 3 point attempt), grab 3 rebounds (1 offensive), block 1 shot, and turned the ball over just once. All in all, just looking at the stat-line its hard to judge his performance, especially when we didn't get to see the game since it wasn't televised, but he didn't have too bad of a game, considering he's making an attempt at being the last guy on the bench, so to speak. From the article linked above, it was his hustle that really stood out, and I think one thing all Thunder fans love, and me especially (which is why I love Nick Collison so much), is hustle. Today's game should give one of the other three an opportunity to prove what they can do. Click the jump link to hear some more about today's game and what we are hoping to see.

The first thing I'm looking for in today's game is Russell Westbrook, and whether that 10 assist effort the other night was a fluke, or if he's improved his style of play so much this off-season that he's already going to be one of the leagues better point guards this season. He took just 4 shots, and racked up assist after assist to go along with 4 rebounds and only turned the ball over twice. Sure, we're used to RW0 racking up at least double digits in points, but with the addition of James Harden to the mix, perhaps that pressure for him to score upwards of 20 points per game is being lessened, significantly. If that's the case, imagine how many double doubles the kid is going to have this season, seriously! If he can keep up distributing the ball like this he'll be pushing the double digit assist mark all season, and I think we can pretty much bet that he'll be at least double digit in score on a nightly basis as well, and that's not even mentioning his rebounding which can sometimes pop up there into double digits as well.

The next thing I'm looking for is Jeff Green, and a much a improved outing for him. In Wednesdays game he had probably his work game, at least statwise that I can ever really remember seeing from him. Again, its hard to know what else he was doing on the court just from listening to the game, but, in 26 minutes of play, he managed just 6 points on 3-10 shooting to go with only 2 rebounds and 2 steals. This is not the Uncle Jeff we know and love, and this is not the guy we expect to see on a nightly basis this coming season. So it'll be interesting to see how he responds today and what kind of game he has. I'm banking on a 16-20 point performance with 5-7 boards today for Jeff Green. Let's see if he can do it.

Thirdly, is that even a word? I guess so since spell-check didn't change it, anyway, we're going with it. Thirdly, I want to see more of the young guys, Serge Ibaka, James Harden, D.J. White, and Kyle Weaver. I want to see what Ibaka can do with 20-30 minutes if he was able to score 4 points (2-2 shooting) and grab 2 rebounds in just 4 minutes of playing time. I want to see if D.J. White can continue to perform at such a high level in back to back games, and against good competition. Perhaps throw DJ out there early in the first quarter to get him some time against Nola's starters and see what he can do. Of course to do that, you'd likely have to cut into Jeff Greens time early, but hey its pre-season, why not start D.J. and throw Green out there late in the first and let him work the remainder of the 1st and most of the 2nd before bringing D.J. back in with the rest of the starters to clean up the end of the half? Look at me trying to be coach here. Anyway, I'm just intrigued by the way D.J. played on Wednesday and want to see what the kid can really do, as I'm sure Uncle Jeff's performance was just a fluke, we all know what he's capable of.

Finally, I'm just interested to see what Brooks plans on doing today. Is he going to give starters 25 minutes of playing time again? Is he gonna play with the rotations more? Work some of the young guys in with the starters to see how they will work with our premier players and against better competition? What's he gonna do? How is he going to continue to get this team prepped for the season opener which is already less than 3 weeks away! Can you believe that? just 18 more days until live regular season Thunder basketball! Man I'm excited, so turn that radio (come on guys, its the Hornets!) on at 1pm today and Thunder UP!

Oklahoma City Thunder Roster

	#	Pos.	DOB	W	H	College
Ryan Bowen	40	F	11.20.75	218	6-9	Iowa
Nick Collison	4	C	10.26.80	255	6-10	Kansas
Kevin Durant	35	F	9.29.88	215	6-9	Texas
Jeff Green	22	F	8.28.86	235	6-9	Georgetown
James Harden	13	G	8.26.87	220	6-5	Arizona State
Mike Harris	-	F	6.15.83	240	6-6	Rice
Serge Ibaka	9	F	9.18.89	220	6-10	None
Tre Kelley	6	G	1.23.85	188	6-0	South Carolina
Nenad Krstic	12	C	7.25.83	240	7-0	None
Shaun Livingston	14	G	9.11.85	185	6-7	Peoria Central HS
Byron Mullens	23	C	2.14.89	260	7-1	Ohio State
Kevin Ollie	7	G	12.27.72	195	6-2	Connecticut
Malik Rose	9	F	11.23.74	255	6-7	Drexel
Michael Ruffin	51	F	1.21.77	248	6-8	Tulsa
Thabo Sefolosha	2	G	5.2.84	215	6-7	None
Etan Thomas	36	C	4.1.78	260	6-10	Syracuse
Kyle Weaver	5	G	2.18.86	201	6-6	Washington State
Russell Westbrook	-	G	11.12.88	187	6-3	U-C-L-A
D.J. White	3	F	8.31.86	251	6-9	Indiana

New Orleans Hornets Roster

	#	Pos.	DOB	W	H	College
Hilton Armstrong	12	C	11.11.84	235	6-11	Connecticut
Earl Barron	55	C	8.14.81	268	7-0	Memphis
Bobby Brown	6	G	9.24.84	175	6-2	Cal State Fullerton
Devin Brown	23	G	12.30.78	210	6-5	Texas-San Antonio
Darren Collison	2	G	8.23.87	160	6-0	U-C-L-A
Ike Diogu	1	F	9.11.83	250	6-9	Arizona State
Sean Marks	4	C	8.23.75	250	6-10	California
Emeka Okafor	50	C	9.28.82	255	6-10	Connecticut
Larry Owens	25	F	1.8.83	210	6-7	Oral Roberts
Chris Paul	3	G	5.6.85	175	6-0	Wake Forest
Morris Peterson	9	G	8.26.77	220	6-7	Michigan State
James Posey	41	F	1.13.77	217	6-8	Xavier
Darius Songaila	9	F	2.14.78	248	6-9	Wake Forest
Peja Stojakovic	16	F	6.9.77	229	6-10	None
Marcus Thornton	5	G	6.5.87	205	6-4	L-S-U
David West	30	F	8.29.80	240	6-9	Xavier
Julian Wright	32	F	5.20.87	225	6-8	Kansas

NBA Previews- The Hornets

atthehive — Fri, 09 Oct 2009 08:23:30 -0000

More photos » by Gregory Smith - AP

Browse more photos »

As part of CelticsBlog's annual round of previews, it's the Hornets' turn.

Team Name: New Orleans Hornets

Last Year's Record: 49-33

Key Losses: Tyson Chandler, Rasual Butler, Antonio Daniels, Ryan Bowen, Melvin Ely

Key Additions: Emeka Okafor, Darren Collison, Marcus Thornton, Ike Diogu, Morris Peterson, Darius Songaila

1. What Significant Moves were made during the off-season?

New Orleans did its fair share of wheeling and dealing. Tyson Chandler for Emeka Okafor was the headliner, with the Hornets swapping out a defensive ace with injury questions. Okafor enters the season nursing his own injury, but the hope is he can offer more consistent minutes than Chandler did in '09. The Hornets also saved money by offloading Rasual Butler and Antonio Daniels. Via the draft, Chris Paul's new backup- Darren Collison- joined the team, as did Marcus Thornton, a potential scoring threat off the bench. Toss Darius Songaila into the forward mix, and the Hornets enter 2009-2010 with a significantly different look and feel- three new players will step into the starting roles (Peterson, Julian Wright, Okafor), and a plethora of backcourt and frontcourt minutes should go to Collison and Diogu.

2. What are the team’s biggest strengths?

The point guard position. Obviously, that's been the strength since 2005; however, the Hornets seem to have the backup PG position locked down for the first time in a while. The organization has shown continual confidence in UCLA's Darren Collison. On draft night, they took him over a variety of front court options. They unloaded incumbent 2nd string PG Daniels relatively early in the offseason. And instead of bringing in a veteran 3rd string standby, they decided to roll the dice on Minnesota's Bobby Brown. If things go according to plan, not only will Chris Paul be awesome, his backup will allow him a couple more minutes of rest a game.

3. What are the team’s biggest weaknesses?

One of New Orleans' biggest issues last year was an utter lack of offensive rebounding ability. Only 5 teams went one and done more often last year (now, granted 2 of those were Orlando and San Antonio... but they made up for it in many other areas). Granted, a lot of the problems had to do with severe injury issues. However, neither Okafor nor Ike Diogu is an o-rebounder in the ilk of a healthy Chandler, so that weakness could persist.

On that same note, front court depth was another huge issue. While the addition of Diogu should help, Sean Marks and Hilton Armstrong still figure to get decent minutes off the bench. That shouldn't need much elaboration. The bench sucked in general last year, but more on that under Question 5.

Finally, the team still lacks a creative scorer outside of West and Paul. Obviously, having three marquee scorers on one team might be a little too much to ask for, but having a creative wing would help snap the stagnant stretches the offense is prone to fall into. Some have hyped Thornton into the role. I'm not saying a 6'0" shooting guard can't get that job done; there are a few examples across the league. But I'll believe it when I see it.

4. What are the goals for this team?

Hard to say. From a media perspective, the Hornets certainly won't have too much expected of them after last year's disastrous ending. From a player perspective, I'm sure a few guys are feeling some pressure. David West will be 29 next year. Chris Paul's only 24, but his chances at a title have taken a step back from 2007. From a fan perspective, I feel like a first round series win would satiate the majority of New Orleans appetites. Realistic goals will only become clear at least a couple weeks into November. Between Okafor, Wright's starting job, Collison, and Diogu, there are simply too many new pieces to say for sure.

5. Will the bench suck as badly this year?

The second unit was arguably the Hornets' biggest shortcoming last year. Antonio Daniels is the only guy I can possibly defend. Julian Wright, serious step back. James Posey, mediocre. Morris Peterson, invisible. Sean Marks, eh. Melvin Ely, bleh. And that's without even getting to the unmentionables, Hilton and Devin. Speaking of which, we should combine them into one player this year. Delton Browstrong. Okay, that sounds way cooler than this combo player possibly deserves to. Helvin Brownarms. There we go. Helvin Brownarms.

The overall point is that the bench can't possibly be this bad again. I mean... it could. But it can't.

Darren Collison is a respectable player by all accounts. Ike Diogu can be rock solid if healthy. Peja Stojakovic could have a rebound year and keep his back healthy, coming off the pine. Of course, Marks, Armstrong, and the rest are going to pick up some minutes. But a second unit of Collison/Thornton/Peja/Posey/Diogu with light servings of Bobby Brown and some Kiwi sprinkles should easily outperform last year's. It simply has to.

So to answer the question, no the bench will not suck as badly.

Projected Finish: 53 wins
Projected Finish Rationale: None whatsoever