SB Nation - Gerald Green

The Lure of Potential

RaptorsHQ - Franchise — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 12:42:25 -0000

Amir Johnson - a living, breathing example of the problems with potential...

Perception of course is not always reality and Franchise ponders about the true potential of this year's version of the Toronto Raptors...

As many readers know, one of my favourite sports writers is none other than the Globe's Michael Grange.

Grange always gives it straight via his blog, From Deep, and often, makes me think about something I hadn't thought of before, especially in regards to the Toronto Raptors, or puts a new spin on it.

A great example of the latter?

Yesterday afternoon's post discussing his take on the Dinos with only one pre-season game remaining.

In it, Grange astutely points out that:

Pre-season is pre-season, but a glance at the league standings more-or-less corresponds with the general expectations of what the standings will look like when the ball goes up for real: In either conference there are no projected top-four seeds that are simply stinking it up. In the East Cleveland is 3-3, but they have Shaq on their team – just guessing he’s not going too hard just yet – and have had a serious flu bug to deal with. But Orlando and Boston? A combined 10-1. Out West the Lakers, Mavericks, Jazz and Spurs are a combined 15-6. Denver is 2-3 but had a trip to China to cope with. The bottom third of the standings in each conference look about right, with clubs like Minnesota, Sacramento, Memphis, Jersey and Toronto all struggling. The Raptors better hope they’re the exception.

The argument has always been that pre-season is just that, pre-season, however it's hard not to agree with Mike's logic here. In fact it was after witnessing Toronto's .500ish pre-season play last year that I revised my earlier expectations in terms of wins and downgraded my estimate. No, I didn't think that pre-season was an exact case of "what you've been seeing is what you're going to get," but there were certain things that stood out for me as likely causes for concern; from the back-up point guard spot to wing play.

However this year I'm not going quite that same route.

Last year the team was trying to change styles of play by incorporating Jermaine O'Neal into the mix, but there wasn't the same plethora of new player and chemistry issues to deal with. I also still firmly believe that this current squad boasts superior talent in comparison to last year's team, and that eventually (read December), we'll see a team with some true promise. And as discussed yesterday, that promise may not be realized for a year, but in any event, I expect to see improvements over last season.

Recently however, it doesn't seem that everyone else agrees.

Chad Ford twittered yesterday that he expected the Suns and Raptors to both miss the playoffs, and various other "experts" are placing the "overrated" label on this current version of the Dinos.

Bryan Colangelo just weeks ago was being viewed once more as the Legomaster for being able to turn Duplo blocks into those cool pieces from the Lego Space sets...

...so to speak.

But now after x number of pre-season games, you can already hear the naysayers starting up the bandwagon.

So here's where Grange really comes in.

After reading his post yesterday I got thinking about the current make-up of this team; is this team in fact overrated? Do the pieces brought in this off-season by BC simply look better than they are because they are "new" or "different?" After seeing Joey Graham frustrate you with his potential for three plus seasons, isn't it easier to be swayed by a Marco Belinelli or an Amir Johnson; players that have shown glimpses of promise with other teams, but have never got the opportunity to really show what they can do?

I think so, and I think that's a major point we all need to be wary of prior to the season's tip-off.

It's always easy to fall in love with potential - that's why players like Gerald Green and Saer Sene get drafted each year. And sometimes there's a good reason a player hasn't gotten the opportunity to "live up" to his potential.

It's because it isn't there.

Take Amir Johnson.

Even I was extremely excited about having him on this team this season and wondered if in the end, he might be challenging Reggie Evans for key back-up minutes at the 4. However Sunday's game against Boston made me realize why in all likelyhood, this isn't going to happen. He's just not great at anything other than blocking shots and scoring off of put-back dunks. Several times he was given post-up opportunities only to show about as many polished moves on the blocks as Fergie. (In fact she probably has more.) It wasn't pretty.

That's not to say that Johnson and the various other new members of the Raptors' bench aren't upgrades over last season, they are...

...but I want to emphasize that it's all relative.

Last year the team was basically relying on fringe NBA players to back-up the starters.

This year there's definitely an improvement in talent, but let's not confuse this group with the Lakers 6 through 12. Luke Walton would be a sixth man candidate for the Raps, not a 9th or 10th guy like he is with LA.

Therefore I think the truth regarding Toronto's potential this year falls somewhere between the 50 win plateau that many were throwing around prior to the season, and Grange's comparison of the pre-season standings to that of the eventual regular season. When the Raptors figure things out offensively, I think they'll be alright.

I hope so in any event.

Vegas has the Raps pegged for 41.5 wins, and yesterday, I bet on the over.

Bill Walker Is The Next "Next"

Jeff Clark — Mon, 14 Sep 2009 10:00:28 -0000

More photos » by Brian Babineau - NBAE/Getty Images

Next stop, top floor.

Browse more photos »

Kedrick Brown didn't work out. Gerald Green didn't work out. Tony Allen hasn't worked out. But each of them have taken turns capturing the attention and at times adoration of Celtics fans. Each was a high flier that dazzled the crowd with impossible dunks. Each played limited minutes from the wing. Each fizzled out when they couldn't back up their potential with actual on-court production.

Enter Bill Walker. He's also an athletic wing that earned only limited minutes because he didn't always "get it" enough for the coaching staff to feel comfortable with him. So why should he be any different than any of the others?

Well for starters Bill Walker is not Kedrick, Gerald, or Tony. He should not be judged based upon the failings of those that preceded him. In addition, while there are physical similarities to the others, the apparent separating factor is from the neck up. Kedrick was tentative, Bill is aggressive (to a fault sometimes). Gerald was lazy, Bill is by all accounts very hard working and dedicated to improvement. Tony has questionable character traits (at the very least in the company he keeps), Bill has done nothing but put the very best foot forward that he can (spending summers in Boston working out and doing community service).

So while we've established what Bill Walker is not, we have yet to fully grasp what Bill Walker is. Potential leads to projection which leads to the project label. But when does the project become a pro? The sample size is small, but that's never stopped us from drawing preemptive conclusions before.

Since we don't have a lot to go on from last year, it helps to first take a step further back in time. Before he was a 2nd round pick, Bill was a highly touted prospect. Back in high school, he was a teammate of OJ Mayo's and still managed to steal much of the spotlight for himself. One scout gushed:

In all of my years of watching high school basketball, I have NEVER seen a player as electrifying as Bill Walker.

Sadly, his rocketship to the stars was waylaid when he ruptured the ACL in his left knee his freshman year at Kansas State. This was actually the 2nd time he had surgery to repair an ACL with his right knee failing him back in 2003. After a strong season with the Wildcats in 07-08 (where he was once again overshadowed by a teammate - this time by Michael Beasley) he declared for the draft and might still have been a lottery pick if he hadn't suffered a 3rd knee injury in pre-draft workouts.

His misfortune turned into the Celtics gain when they made a trade with the Wizards to pick him up. Perhaps emboldened by the success of gambling on Leon Powe, the Celtics were willing to give Bill a shot. Anyone who has seen one of his eye popping dunks is witness to the fact that (barring another injury) Bill's athleticism is the least of his worries.

Walker split his rookie season between the Celtics and the DLeague's Utah Flash. But his time in Boston was eventful. Right from the start (during preseason) he made a name for himself by getting on the nerves of LeBron James and Tracy McGrady. On the court he simply refuses to back down from anyone, anytime, for any reason. I almost wonder if he seeks out the biggest stars and pushes the limit just to prove that he's not afraid of them. Whatever it is, it gets under the skin of the opponents and endears him to Boston fans. I think it is safe to say that he fits in just fine on this team.

As for his game, the best way I can describe it is "ready, fire, aim."

When a shot goes up, he's flying through the air looking for one of those mind numbing putback dunks. When a ball is on the floor, so is he. When his man is headed toward the basket with the ball, ...well, lets just say that Billy takes the "no layups" rule to heart. In short, he's got athleticism and aggression to spare. You can't teach that.

I think you can, however, teach the elements of his game that are lacking. Last year he didn't always know where to be on defense. For that matter I'm not sure he was sure where to be on offense either. He also didn't know how to throttle back the aggression. Paul Pierce has made a career out of making faster, more athletic players look stupid because he's a master of changing speeds.

To use a baseball analogy, Bill Walker is a fastball pitcher. Once the hitter times the pitches, he's bound to catch up to one eventually. Pierce is more of a Greg Maddux, using location and changing velocity to keep batters (defenders) off balance. Some of that is just innate talent on Paul's part. But a lot of it was learned. Bill needs to pick up some tricks of the trade from Paul and keep the other team guessing.

It is a delicate balance. You don't want Bill slowing down too much. Running the break, you want him flying at the rim. But you don't want him running straight into a triple team without knowing where the kickout options are. You want him to fight for every loose ball. But you don't need him literally fighting for it, if you follow.

So that is where coaching and hard work comes in. He's been in Waltham both of the last summers, working with coaches, working out, watching tape, learning the game. He's got good intentions for sure. He wants to take that next step and contribute to the team. He wants to be more than a garbage time dunker and emergency sub.

The thing is, this team has little time to work young players into the rotation. The ever present window inches further down. If he can contribute now, he'll play. If he can't, he'll continue to be this team's human victory cigar. It doesn't help that Marquis Daniels was brought in to back up the wing position. JR Giddens is still here looking to fill largely the same role that Walker is after (in fact, Danny and Doc have hinted at the fact that they might be after the same spot). There are ample excuses to go around if things don't go well.

However, if Bill Walker is worth the adoration we've already heaped upon him, he won't need excuses. If he is going to be the kind of player we all want him to be, then he will make his own opportunities and force the Celtics to play him. If not, then he would simply join the long list of guys that we thought was "next."

Poll

This year, Bill Walker will...

become a part of the rotation

1297 votes

be mostly inactive or in Maine

664 votes

be traded or cut

150 votes

other

93 votes

2204 votes | Poll has closed

Kedrick Brown Signs In Turkey

Jeff Clark — Sun, 23 Aug 2009 00:18:29 -0000

Old friend Kedrick Brown has signed a contract in Turkey. Jessica Camerato reports:

Former Boston Celtic Kedrick Brown has signed with Bornova BLD of the Turkish TBL, Pro Basketball News reported. Brown was selected by the Celtics out with the 11th pick in the 2001 NBA Draft. He averaged just over three points in 101 games for the Celtics over three seasons. Brown went on to play for the Cleveland Cavaliers and Philadelphia 76ers before posting nearly 18 points per game for the NBDL's Anaheim Arsenal last season.

Kedrick was one of those guys that I really, really was pulling for but he never lived up to my hopes. In fact, he has a solid starting spot on my Celtics Busts of My Generation Starting Five.

PG: Marcus Banks
SG: Gerald Green
SF: Kedrick Brown
PF: Jerome Moiso
C: Eric Montross
6th Man: Ron Mercer

Am I forgetting anyone?

Looking At The Options At Small Forward

Roy_Hobbs — Sun, 12 Jul 2009 16:00:44 -0000

Marc Spears provides a fairly comprehensive list of the free agent small forwards who may or may not be willing to backup Paul Pierce this off-season:

There is a long list of small forwards available for the $1.9 biannual exception or even less, including Miami’s Jamario Moon (restricted), Phoenix’s Matt Barnes, Jerry Stackhouse (waived by Memphis Friday), Indiana’s Marquis Daniels and Stephen Graham, Atlanta’s Josh Childress (restricted), Dallas’s James Singleton (restricted) and Gerald Green, Detroit’s Walter Herrmann, Oklahoma City’s Desmond Mason, Golden State’s Rob Kurz, San Antonio’s Ime Udoka, and Minnesota’s Rodney Carney. While some may garner more money elsewhere, playing for the contending Celtics would be an added draw that could bring a discount.

Other names that Spears left out are Wally Szczerbiak, Joey Graham, and Keith Bogans.

I think some of the guys on the list are pretty unlikely to take the LLE, including Daniels, Moon, and Childress (and in the case of the latter two, their teams would almost surely match any LLE offer sheet signed). We all know the story with Gerald, and Kurz is a rookie with 40 games total of NBA experience. If you further limit the list to only include: 1) players 6'6" or taller; and 2) a three point percentage (career or last season) of over 33.3%, you're left with the six names: Carney, Herrman, Barnes, Singleton, Wally, and Udoka.

For the LLE, I'd be okay with any of those guys. Obviously, none of them are ideal, but that's what you get when you only have bargain contracts to offer. Of those players, I'd rank my wish list in the following order: Carney, Barnes, Udoka, Herrman, Wally, Singleton. Bruce Bowen also may get bought out, and if so, I'm sure he'd be considered, as well.

The small forward I really want, though, is Nocioni. If Sacramento has any desire to dump his salary, I hope Danny puts in a phone call, because he'd be a great fit here. Other potential trade targets for teams that are struggling finacially include Francisco Garcia, James Posey, Rasual Butler, Matt Harpring, Jared Jeffries, James Jones, Tim Thomas, and Ricky Davis (some are more likely than others).

Poll

Which free agent small forward should the Celtics sign?

Matt Barnes

1357 votes

Rodney Carney

363 votes

Walter Herrman

170 votes

James Singleton

28 votes

Jerry Stackhouse

639 votes

Wally Szczerbiak

295 votes

Ime Udoka

234 votes

None of the above

513 votes

3599 votes | Poll has closed

Q&A with Kevin Pelton

Stop-n-Pop — Wed, 08 Jul 2009 11:00:16 -0000

If Daryl Morey is, as Bill Simmons calls him, Dork Elvis, Kevin Pelton is Chuck Berry or Bo Diddley. From his statistical analysis primer to APBRMetrics Central to the APBR forum to his current work at Basketball Prospectus Kevin is responsible for a fairly large chunk of what has inspired a great deal of content on this site.

After reading some of his work with fellow SB Nation sites Blazer's Edge and Third Quarter Collapse, I thought I'd contact Kevin to see if he could give us any insight on the current state of the Wolves and he was kind enough to provide the following responses:

1- David Kahn has repeatedly cited the defensive potential of Jonny Flynn as being a primary reason for selecting him over Stephen Curry with the 6th pick in the draft. Unfortunately, Flynn doesn't seem to have a college record that would suggest him becoming a terrific on-the-ball defender in the NBA. Is there anything on his stat sheet that would indicate development into the type of defensive player that Kahn is talking about? Are there any historical precedents for a player in a 2-3 zone putting up similar numbers in college before becoming a solid NBA defender?

I glanced at the numbers for a handful of Syracuse players to come into the NBA the last few years, and I don't see a lot of evidence that playing in a zone held back their numbers. Hakim Warrick ended up a better shot-blocker than you would have predicted based on his college statistics, but he and Carmelo Anthony both underachieved a bit in terms of their steal percentage. As far as guys playing at the top of the zone, the best comparison would be Jason Hart, who was a terrific thief in college (averaging better than three steals per game as a junior) and kept that up in the NBA.

These being defensive stats, a lack of them isn't necessarily damning. Amongst guys with similar college defensive numbers, you find a pretty good defender in Delonte West and a stopper in Kirk Hinrich (who did block more shots in college). What those guys had that Flynn doesn't is height and strong defensive reputations in college. It's hard to find much evidence backing up Kahn's optimism about Flynn's potential at the defensive end.

2- The Wolves currently have a massively unbalanced roster with 9 bigs, 4 points, Corey Brewer and Wayne Ellington. While they appear to be serviceable at the 1 and the 4/5, they are headed towards disaster at the 2/3. What undrafted free agents or cost-conscious veteran free agents would provide value to the Wolves at the 2/3?

The Timberwolves are already ahead of the game with Paul Harris on their summer-league roster as one of the better wings who went undrafted. As you guys have mentioned, Lee Cummard is another undrafted player who would make sense, and I'd add the Marquette duo of Jerel McNeal and Wesley Matthews. As for as veteran free agents, there's not a whole lot out there on the wings. It seems like the best Minnesota can hope for is a reclamation project along the lines of Kirk Snyder and Rodney Carney the last couple of years. Unfortunately, that group includes Carney, Rashad McCants and Gerald Green, guys the Timberwolves have already given a shot. Besides them, you're looking at Morris Almond and Luther Head. The chances of finding a real contributor are low, but then so is the cost.

3- Setting aside any opinion on whether David Kahn is serious or not with his desire to play Ricky Rubio and Jonny Flynn side-by-side, do you think that this is a duo that could work together at the NBA level?

Yeah, I think it could work. With the modern NBA emphasizing speed over size, I think it's possible to get away with a smaller duo like Flynn and Rubio. The bigger question is whether you're maximizing talent, and that's where a Flynn-Rubio duo would fall short. Ultimately, you're keeping one or both of them from exploiting their ability to create with the ball in their hands if you play them together. That's why people have rightfully criticized the Wolves.

4- One of the biggest arguments against the selection of Jonny Flynn with the 6th pick is that the Wolves left each and every single non-Harden/Evans shooting guard/wing on the board while taking a second point guard. The team then picked up Wayne Ellington at 28 instead of taking players like Jermaine Taylor, Marcus Thornton or Jodie Meeks. Did the Wolves get good value at 28 with Ellington? Was there any shooting guard/wing worth taking at 6 instead of Flynn?

Given the Timberwolves' need for a shooter, I think Ellington was about as good of a value as they could have gotten at 28. I'm not a huge fan of any of the other shooting guards who went early in the second round, and the available small forwards other than maybe Chase Budinger were more 3/4 types, not guys who would space the floor.

I didn't love the wings on the board at pick six either, unless you count Stephen Curry in that group (and even Curry I felt was somewhat overrated). Neither Demar DeRozan nor Gerald Henderson put up strong numbers at the NCAA level, and anyone else would have been a reach. If the Minnesota front office didn't want to take a chance on DeRozan making good on his potential, I don't think you can blame them for that.

END

Thanks again to Kevin Pelton for taking the time to answer a few questions. We encourage our readers to make Basketball Prospectus (especially the Unfiltered blog) a daily stop.

Loud Links: Oklahoma City Thunder News for July 3, 2009

daddydai — Fri, 03 Jul 2009 23:00:24 -0000

4D here, waiting patiently to hear news from the Thunder - Paul Millsap talks. According to ESPN, Presti could be buying time by waiting closer to the signing date of July 8 to offer a contract. The Salt Lake Tribune speculates if the Jazz could become the most expensive payroll in the NBA. Given that possibility the Jazz still seem pretty determined to bring Millsap back for next season. BlueBlitz take a look at the Thunder Summer League roster. Durant bowls for charity in Houston. In others parts of the NBA, Turkoglu and Portland have reached an agreement.

Deseret News | Jazz plan to re-sign Millsap — unless offer's 'crazy'
One NBA agent said the Jazz will match unless Millsap's deal is "crazy money." Asked if a contract starting at $10 million per season is just that, the agent dubbed it "borderline crazy." Jazz general manager Kevin O'Connor on Tuesday told NBA.com that "we're going to re-sign Paul Millsap unless the number is outrageous," which is a departure from the franchise's initial unequivocal commitment to match.

NBA free agency - ESPN
It's possible that the Thunder are seeing what the market for Millsap is and waiting until next week to make a move, thereby giving the Jazz less time to prepare to match their offer. Contracts can be signed on July 8, and a team has seven days to match the offer. If OKC were to make an agreement with Millsap before July 8, it would be giving the Jazz more time to potentially move players around to create room to re-sign Millsap.

NBA free agents: Hedo Turkoglu, Portland Trail Blazers have agreement in principle - ESPN
Hedo Turkoglu has reached an agreement in principle to join the Portland Trail Blazers, according to sources. Although a verbal commitment may be announced sooner, the terms of the contract cannot be finalized until Wednesday when the NBA informs teams what the 2009-10 salary cap will be.

Seattle transplants mark 1st year in Oklahoma City - nba - SI.com
A full year after the NBA franchise announced it would be relocating, Winemiller is among a handful of employees who are still making a 2,000-mile commute - from home with the family in the Pacific Northwest to work at the Thunder's downtown office.

Thunder Summer League Roster Released!
We now have our official roster! Among them you can see this years draft picks, James Harden, B.J. Mullens, and Robert Vaden. For a detailed explanation of who they are, see my article entitled, "So, Who Did We Get?" In any case, here's a break down of what to expect from each guy in the Summer League and going forward.

Tahlequah Daily Press - Frontcourt is No.1 need for Thunder
The Thunder are one of only three teams, Detroit and Memphis are the other two, who have over $10 million in cap room to spare. Despite the large amount of cap space, it seems unlikely with the young talent already in place that the team will pursue any of the marquee free agents.

Say It Ain't So: Is The "R" Word In Store For The Bulls? - Bull Riding
So if we rebuild, what does that mean? Well, the two best examples from recent memory are the Boston Celtics and the Oklahoma City Thunder. Both teams began with one star player (Paul Pierce and Kevin Durant, respectively), and they had to wait to slowly gather the right pieces to complement their stars. In the meantime, they cleared cap space, gutted their rosters, and collected a combination of expiring contracts and young players on rookie contracts. They then let the kids play, keeping the ones who thrived and letting go of those that didn't.

It's easier for the Jazz to blow cash than to get their money's worth - Salt Lake Tribune
Still the Jazz rolled in at over $73 million. And one of the most notable things about that number is it does not include a full roster of players. Most significantly, it doesn't include whatever it will take to re-sign Paul Millsap. Add that in, and the Jazz could find themselves at the head of the big-spenders club, or near it, if the Lakers, as expected, roll out some major bones to re-sign all their guys.

Gerald Green eager to prove he belongs in the NBA | NewsOK.com
It’s low-risk, high-reward players like Green that Thunder general manager Sam Presti has become known for targeting. Green turned only 23 in January and figures to be four years from entering into the prime of his career. For now, he’s seemingly a cost-effective option that potentially could provide Oklahoma City with another perimeter shooter and rangy defender on the wing.

One Year Anniversary of Thunder Announcement | KSBI-TV | Sports
After completing the season the Thunder have now begun its first off season including an NBA draft where the team selected James Harden out of Arizona State third overall. Now the team begins its first free agency period as the Thunder and will look to make more moves to make its second season in OKC more successful then the first.

Durant Bowling For Charity | Thunder Rumblings
Kevin Durant will be a part of T.J. Ford’s charity bowling event in Houston on July 11 (via the Houston Chronicle). Not sure how bowling has taken off in NBA circles, but it definitely has as a means for fund raising and a fun free-time activity.

Peace, Love and Thunderstanding: The Myth of Presti | The Lost Ogle
When the Supersonics fired their former general manager, Rick Sund, I remember being very excited about the prospect of SamPresti being the guy in charge of basketball operations when the team moved here. The guy, who graduated high school only one year before I did, was a wunderkind who was credited with convincing the San Antonio Spurs to take a chance on Tony Parker. It indicated to me that he was a young guy, who thinks outside the box, and does a great job of evaluating talent.

Miss a previous Loud Links Post? Find it quickly Below!

June 2009

| 06-01-09 | 06-02-09 | 06-03-09 | 06-04-09 | 06-05-09 | 06-06-09 | 06-07-09 | 06-08-09 | 06-09-09 | 06-10-09 |

| 06-11-09 | 06-12-09 | 06-13-09 | 06-15-09 | 06-16-09 | 06-17-09 | 06-18-09 | 06-20-09 | 06-22-09 | 06-23-09 |

| 06-24-09 | 06-26-09 | 06-27-09 | 06-28-09 | 06-29-09 | 06-30-09 |

July 2009

| 07-01-09 | 07-02-09 |

Welcome to NBA free agency

Phoenix Stan — Tue, 30 Jun 2009 16:03:22 -0000

With the NBA free agency about to kick off on July 1st, we can expect a lot of activity over the next few days as players opt out and teams exercise their options. Mostly though, we will see a lot of movement of some big name players and perhaps even more impactful will be which young up-and-comer signs where. There is rightly a lot of discussion about next year's free agent period dubbed "The Summer of LeBron" but don't go to sleep on who's available now.

Before we get into specific players and the Suns salary situation, lets first have a quick primer on some free agency basics.

Free agency period, salary cap, luxury tax and what not

On July 1st free agents become "free" and teams are allowed to begin negotiations with those players. July 1st in effect marks the official end to the previous season from a salary calculation standpoint and the rosters are in essence reset. Like a pumpkin at midnight, on July 1st those valuable "expiring contracts" official expire.

But before teams can actually spend money on new players the league has a moratorium on signings and conducts an audit to establishe the salary cap for the coming season. The salary cap is mandated by the Collective Bargaining Agreement between the teams and players and is designed to limit how much teams can spend. The salary cap is set at 51% of the total basketball related revenue from the NBA.

The audit that will be conducted over the next few days determines what the salary cap will be for the coming year. The cap is based on overall league revenues. If the league makes less money that translates to a lower salary cap and less money for players. A pretty smart system.

The salary cap determines how much money teams can pay free agents. If a team has $10m under the cap it can spend up to $10m to sign a free agent.

There are exceptions to the salary cap which allow teams to exceed the limit. Most of these exceptions like "Bird Rights" allow teams to exceed the cap to resign it's own free agents. The system is designed to encourage players to remain with the same team and limit player movement.

The other well known exception is the "Mid-level Exception" which allows a team to sign one or more players up to an amount equal to the average league salary. The MLE is expected to be about $5.6m this summer.

Between the MLE (which can be used on one player each year) and the various other exceptions you can see that teams quickly exceed the salary cap making it a so-called "soft cap". The Suns for example were $17m over the salary cap last season.

The other big impact of the salary cap is on trades. If two teams want to make a trade and both are over the salary cap then the salaries have to match salaries within 125%. If however, a team is under the salary cap it can use its cap space to receive the incoming player's salary and not have to send back and equivalent salary amount. This is a very important factor in trades and is why teams with cap space have a lot of leverage when it comes to making trades with teams wanting to cut payroll.

On July 8th, when the audit is complete and the salary cap is officially set teams can official begin signing free agents and can continue to sign them throughout the season.

The Luxury Tax is the next limit teams work within. The lux tax is established at essentially 61% of all basketball related income. Last season it was $71m and like the salary cap had grown about $3m every year since the 2005 CBA went into effect. This season both the salary cap and luxury tax are expected to stay about the same or perhaps decline as a result of the economy.

The luxury tax is calculated based on the total payroll a team has at the end of the season. This is important as a team that is over the tax and wanting to get under it has until the February trade deadline to shed payroll. The problem at that point is the only way to get under the tax for the current season is to make a deal with a team that has salary cap space.

When the Suns traded Kurt Thomas to the Seattle Supersonics to save $16m, Kerr had to "pay" the Sonic two first round picks to compensate the Sonics for using their cap space. If the Suns had held on to Thomas and traded him at the deadline as the Sonic did, they would not have saved the $16m as they would have had to receive contracts back. Again, this shows why teams that are under the cap have a lot of leverage and flexibility when it comes to making deals.

The luxury tax is paid dollar for dollar for any salary over the tax line meaning a team that is $4m over the tax line will pay $4m in tax. The tax gets distributed to non-tax paying teams making the process even more painful.

For more detailed CBA information see the Salary Cap FAQ

Where are the Suns now?

On July 1st the Suns will have 12 players under contract totaling about $73m in salary. That assumes they waive Pavlovic and are on the hook for only the $1.5m guaranteed portion of his full $4.5m contract. When you add in a $2m place holder for Grant Hill who is the Suns highest priority free agent and $800k for Taylor Griffin you are at 14 players at $76m which is projected to be about $4m over the tax line.

If the Suns hadn't made the trade with Cleveland they would be at $81m including Hill and Clark and assuming they wouldn't sign Griffin or any other players.

Ben Wallace has said that he's considering retirement. If he were to accept a buy out of $10m that would save the Suns $8m and put them in a sound financial position. If he were to be traded to the Hornets for Chandler's $12m salary the team would still save about $4m. As we said when the deal went down, Wallace's intentions are important to what the Suns do over the next few weeks. If he decides he wants to play next season the Suns have no option but to pay him the full $14m. Chances are good though that we will take a buy out and either retire or sign somewhere else for much less.

If the Suns don't do anything else other then sign Clark to the rookie scale and Griffin to a minimum contract and then lock up Grant Hill for about $2m then they will be paying $4m in tax. They've said they are fine with this.

What the Suns don't have (unlike numerous teams) is the room under either salary cap or the luxury tax to sign any of the free agents available. Using the MLE would cost the team over $10m in salary and tax and they are not going to do that.

Who's got money to spend?

Using $65m as the line between teams that can spend the MLE without going to far over the luxury tax, there are 14 teams that can be considered buyers in the upcoming free agency spending period. That doesn't mean all of those teams will use the MLE but they reasonably could. Those teams in order of highest payroll to lowest are:

Bulls, Rockets, Clippers, Warriors, Nets, 76ers, Trailblazers, Kings Timberwolves, Raptors, Hawks, Thunder, Pistons and Grizzlies. Those last three teams are all about $17m to $21m under the salary cap making them major players in this market.

That's not to say certain teams with deep pocketed owners won't go even further over the luxury tax to sign certain players. The Knicks who are already about $4m over the tax line are reportedly interested in signing Jason Kidd and the Lakers who are $5m over are going to have to decide how much more to spend on Odom and/or Ariza. The Mavericks with Cuban's checkbook are right at the luxury tax line and have the very movable contract of Jerry Stackhouse which should make them a player as well.

Who's available?

There are some big names out there to be had by those teams with money to spend. There are quite a few solid power forwards available and a couple of very good point guards. There are also some very interesting big names like Shawn Marion, Rasheed Wallace, Allen Iverson and Stephon Marbury. I can't wait to find out where those guys end up.

Stay tuned, the next few weeks are going to be interesting.

Here's a quick look at some of the bigger names. For the full list click here:

Centers

Rasheed Wallace
Mehmet Okur
Marcin Gortat
Chris Anderson
Zaza Pachulia
Rasho Nesterovic
Others include: Ryan Hollins, Johan Petro and Joel Anthony

Power Forwards

Carlos Boozer
Brandon Bass
Paul Milsap
Charlie Villanueva
David Lee
Lamar Odom
Glen Davis
Leon Powe
Marvin Williams
Chris Wilcox
Channing Frye
Others include: Rob Kurz, Joe Smith, Walter Herrmann, James Singleton, Hakim Warrick

Small Forwards

Linas Kleiza
Ron Artest
Trevor Ariza
Jamario Moon
Matt Barnes
Grant Hill
Shawn Marion
Hedo Turkoglu
Rashad McCants
Others include: Steve Novak, Stephen Graham, Gerald Green

Shooting Guards

Point Guards

Flip Murray
Stephon Marbury
Raymond Felton
Jason Kidd
Allen Iverson
Ramon Sessions
Nate Robinson
Andre Miller
Anthony Carter

Monday Morning Links

Wes Cox — Mon, 29 Jun 2009 14:25:04 -0000

DB.com's Morning Donuts
*Through 6/30 ...trades are allowed, can't talk to free agents about a contract because free-agents-to-be are still considered under contract with their old team through June 30

*7/1 - 7/7 ....free agent negotiations can begin, trade talks can occur, but teams can't announce any business because nothing can be signed or locked in because of the moratorium, so there will be lots of talks and rumors and "a source said a deal is agreed" that get leaked

*7/8 on ... new cap is now defined and free agents can be signed, trades can be made

Dallas Mavericks' Kidd expected to have plenty of suitors
Wednesday is when teams officially can begin talking to free agents, and Kidd is expected to get overtures from several teams: Cleveland, Portland, Boston, New York and perhaps the Lakers. All of those teams except for Portland are stymied by the salary cap.

DMN.com: Cuban explains the double PG selection
"It used to be you tried to accumulate as many big [men] as you could," Cuban said. "It's kind of flipped around now. You can't have enough quick guards who can get into the paint and defend. "This isn't a reflection on Jason Kidd. We're still going to do everything we can to sign him. It's not a reflection on J.J. [Barea].

Interview with Josh Howard who is in NC for his annual camp.

DB.com with the mother of all rumor articles.
Veteran PGs like Raymond Felton or Ramon Sessions to Dallas? The Mavs like them both. But if you are trying to retain Kidd, are trying to show faith in JJB and are trying to develop Roddy Beaubois, I’m not sure how you convince Ramon Sessions (who might be getting squeezed out in Milwaukee) that you have enough love to go around.

French point guard says Dallas is where he wanted to play
"But when they told me I was supposed to go to Dallas, I was happier because I really like this team and this city. I really appreciate this." So are we to assume Oklahoma City, which drafted Beaubois for the Mavericks, wasn't high on his wish list. "No," he quickly said.

Pro Basketball News | Shopping for a bargain
If Dahntay Jones' asking price is too high, Denver may be a good spot for [Gerald] Green, who won't command much more than the $826,000 he made last season.

Let the NBA free-agent madness begin - ESPN Chicago
Jason Kidd to NY?: That's the buzz around the NBA, but I don't see the Knicks offering more than just a one-year deal unless Kidd goes to them on the cheap and why would he?

Bargain Shopping Free Agents

Jeff Clark — Mon, 29 Jun 2009 11:53:43 -0000

ProBasketball News has an interesting list of some lower tier free agents that could be had for cheap. Old friends Gerald Green and Wally Szczerbiak make the list and I don't think they are very good fits here (Wally can still shoot, but that's about it). However, there are some interesting names of guys that I wouldn't mind seeing here for the right price (ie. very cheap).

Ike Diogu and Jason Collins would both be cheap big men and at the very least they'd work harder than Patrick O'Bryant did. Desmond Mason might cost a bit more than the other guys on this list, but he'd probably fit the role of backup small forward pretty well (if healthy). Then there's a collection of point guards on this list that I'm not terribly familiar with, including CJ Watson, Royal Ivey, and Ronnie Price.

I don't see anything linking any of these guys to the Celtics, but after the market has shaken out with the big names, they might be good options to look into.

The Curry Conundrum

Stop-n-Pop — Sun, 28 Jun 2009 11:00:23 -0000

OK, it's the next day. Time to start dealing with some of the tough issues brought about by last night's draft. First and foremost among any issue with the Wolves' selections is the seemingly inexplicable decision to pass on Stephen Curry after taking Ricky Rubio. Forget about Jonny Flynn for a moment. You're the Wolves. You've just drafted the best passing point guard in the draft. You have a roster filled with power forwards and exactly zero players who can hit above 40% of their shots from beyond 15 feet. Do you a) take a 6'2" guard who shoots .387% from 3 (on a ton of attempts; many of them contested), .519% from 2 (mostly mid-range jumpers), has long range, and can shoot the lights out off the screen or in catch-and-shoot situations or b) a 5'11" guy who has Bassy-esque 3 point averages, average defensive numbers, and very modest RSB/40 numbers?

What exactly are you getting with Flynn that you cannot get from Curry? For one, Flynn has superior a/to and ppr numbers. This normally would be something to write home about had you not just spent your previous pick on a guy who will carry the lion's share of insuring that your team had solid a/to and ppr numbers at the same position. (Although, Rubio doesn't exactly have the best turnover ratio at the moment.) Kahn made a point of telling Stuart Scott on ESPN that Flynn was more of a scoring point while Rubio was a conductor of the orchestra. It's pretty hard to dress up Flynn as a scoring point more than Curry. Flynn gets to the line at a higher clip and he is a better finisher than Curry, but in terms of broad scoring efficiency, range, and putting the ball in the bucket, Curry is better at doing what Kahn wants to see in Flynn than what Flynn actually does.

I get that there are intangibles involved here. Flynn is tough as nails, a natural leader, a fantastic interview, and a winner (this three part series will make you love the guy). All of that is great and we here at Hoopus have no way of measuring this sort of thing on the level of what the Wolves have done with interviews and background checks. However, Curry seemed to be so much the BPA that even though I can sympathize with the idea of taking the perceived BPA and working out the messy details later, I just can't get past the idea that anything Flynn brings to the table is either redundant (and outdone) with Rubio (facilitation) or outdone by Curry (scoring). I.E. they seem to have overvalued Flynn.

I don't want this to seem like it's sour grapes on the part of a site who has been calling for the Curry pick for over a year, but there are some real problems with passing on the kid. The Wolves still have zero players on their roster who can shoot the three. They have zero players who can hit the mid-range jumper with any consistency. I know that the roster isn't set and we will likely see some more movement. Maybe they drafted Flynn with the idea that they could move him for value during the off-season. Even if that were true, does he have significantly more value than Curry at the same spot? I don't think he does.

In defense of the pick, I will say that I admire the fact that the Wolves selected the highest guy on their draft board with each pick. This is exactly what a 24 win team with 6 picks should do, damn the positions. If they had the number one pick I would be bitching to all hell had they not taken Blake Griffin. My beef with the pick is that Curry was the clear BPA. It is nice to see that the team's processes have begun to change but it is kind of disheartening to see them take...well, perhaps I shouldn't be too hard on them. They took Ty Lawson at 18 and Nick Calathes at 45. At both spots, they took the best player on the board (although, we now know via David Kahn's interview with Dan Patrick that the Wolves didn't actually pick Lawson). You could even make the case for Ellington being the BPA at 28. Maybe I'm overlooking something with Flynn. If Flynn has value, it will either come on the court or in a future move. I suppose we'll just have to wait to see how it plays out. I just can't get past a bad feeling that they really missed an opportunity with Curry.

Let's flesh this out a bit. What do we know about Curry's game vis-a-vis Flynn? Our two big sources for situational stats are this post from DX and this one from True Hoop. The first thing you will notice here is that both sites use Synergy Sports data and both sites feature some radically different data in a key area. Here's DX on the issue of pick-and-rolling:

...but his 1.3 PPP on the pick and roll is excellent—which leaves a lot of room for optimism.

Here's True Hoop:

Where does Curry need to improve? The pick-and-roll. Curry managed only 0.78 points per possessions -- though the pick-and-roll accounted for only 8% of his offensive possessions.

A few things. First, we have long viewed the DX information as one of the reasons to feel optimistic about Curry's translation to the NBA. His relatively low FT rate combined with a solid 2p% and a solid ppp on the p-n-r led us to believe that this would be Curry's best attribute at the next level. Now, we're not so sure. Either someone is misreading the data, requesting the wrong data, or Synergy Sports doesn't have their you-know-what together.

Secondly, this isn't the first time we have found discrepancies between DX's stats and sites like Kenpom or even our own calculations from official score sheets. DX's own stats don't even always match up with what they print from Synergy. Check out Curry's ppp on DX compared to its Synergy counterpart. 1.05 vs. 0.94 is juuusssst a bit of a difference stretched out over 100 possessions. It's a bit frustrating and from now on we'll link to both sites whenever we talk about college stats. We also recommend that you do as much background checking on DX's stats as possible as they don't always match up with other sites...or even their own.

Putting together a larger picture (and assuming that the rest of the data between those two posts are correct...which may be a mistake), we see that Curry has a large usage rate. He was very good with the open jumper (1.33 ppp), with a hand in his face (1.15 ppp), spot-up shooting (1.19 ppp), and coming off screens (1.3 ppp in 2.6 possessions/game). What he was not exceptional in is scoring in transition. 24% of Curry's possessions came in transition and he shot 41% with 0.94 ppp in these situations. In other words, he probably shot a lot of jumpers in transition. Isolation situations accounted for 27% of Curry's possessions with 0.94 ppp. What does all of this tell us? Curry is a versatile scorer who was able to transition to the point during his last season at Davidson.

Flynn doesn't have a True Hoop Synergy post. He just gets the DX treatment:

Flynn was a standout in two areas: his ability to get to the rim, and his one-on-one skills. Thankfully for him, those are two skills that the NBA values dearly. Clearly, his productivity is grounded in his first step. Flynn got to the rim 8.8 times per game, which accounted for a lot of his scoring, but his 1.24 PPP in unguarded catch and shoot situations and .94 PPP on pull up jumpers are both very respectable. His 4.3 possessions per game on isolations are amongst the best amongst big-conference players, and his 41% shooting on those plays isn’t awful. Couple those tools with his capacity to drive in both directions and his ability to draw fouls (16.1% SF), and it becomes hard not to think that Flynn could be, at the very least, a high quality backup if he improves his efficiency, especially once he masters the pick and roll (.84 PPP).

These stats are reflected in Flynn's superior ability to get to the line (48.1 FtRate compared to Curry's 36.5), his higher 2p% (.521 to .519), and his isolation volume. We know that Curry had a lot of isolation plays (27% of his possessions), and we know that he had a good ppp mark but we don't know what Flynn's ppp and percentage of iso plays are. We know he has a high iso mark amongst big-conference players and we know that he has a decent fg% with lots of trips to the line, and we know that he can draw fouls like nobody else at his size, but we need to know his ppp in order to make a solid comparison with Curry. My guess is that he is in the same neighborhood as Curry in iso situations; possibly even coming out ahead if you factor in trips to the line. We also don't have a good idea of how Flynn performs in transition.

That being said, of all the things we have said about Curry, if the True Hoop post is to believed, and if you can trust the Synergy data at DX, Flynn is actually a more effective pick and roll player than Curry while being able to be effective in unguarded catch-and-shoot situations, pull up situations, and possibly being better in isolation. He clearly doesn't match Curry's excellent shooting numbers (nor does he come close to handling the load that Curry had), but he does match Curry in several areas that could be very useful at the next level.

Ultimately, we don't really have a clear grasp on the situational differences between Curry and Flynn but, after looking at these stats combined with what we already know, we do get a sense of two main things: a) Curry is a far more diverse scorer than one would first guess (even though he's primarily a jump shooter) and b) Flynn combines facilitation and scoring at a bit more even rate than Curry. Curry is a fantastic scorer and shooter who had decent facilitation numbers in his first season at the point. Flynn is a fantastic facilitator who had slightly above average scoring numbers during his college career. I still can't get by Curry's shooting numbers (especially if you give him the ball at a high rate), but perhaps we underestimated Flynn's ability to score the ball within the 3 point line and in isolation situations. We would like to know a lot more about how Flynn dealt with catch-and-shoots and off screens before we can go any further with this.

One more thing about Flynn. One of our favorite writers, Kevin Pelton, actually had him rated above Curry. Here is what he had to say:

5. Jonny Flynn, Syracuse (1.7 WARP)
Age: 20.2 | Translated Stats: 0.401 Win% | 0.491 TS% | 18.3 Usage | 3.8 Reb% | 3.19 Pass

D.J. Augustin (97.7); Deron Williams (96.2); Maurice Williams (96.1); Jerryd Bayless (95.9); Kenny Satterfield (94.4)

Flynn probably combines scoring and passing as well as any point guard in this class, drawing comparisons to a pair of Williamses (as well as Jay Williams) and T.J. Ford. His uncertainty seems to be a little higher than the point guards ahead of him, with a handful of busts amongst his best comps, but there's the chance to become a star, too.

Finally, and with one more defense of the pick, as a long-time Curry proponent, even I have to admit (and remind people) that part of Curry's attractiveness was that he could be a ball-dominant guard. We have made this point at every step of the way with our praise of Curry. Curry led the NCAA with a mind-boggling 38% of his team's possessions with a usage rate just above 25 (DX has it listed above 31). Curry was effective, in part, because he had his ball in his hands and he was a fantastic shooter....with the ball. On the other hand, Flynn factored in 25.2% of his team's possessions along with two other solid guards (Eric Devendorf and Paul Harris) receiving usage and possession rates in the same ball park, 22.6 and 20.5 respectively in terms of team possessions. Curry is a good enough shooter to make a living as an off-the-ball guard a'la Rip Hamilton, but he may not be the prospect we all have been clamoring for without the ability to have a chance to run the point. At Davidson, he was who he was because he factored in more than 1/3 of his team's possessions. Here is what I wrote in a post calling him the 2nd best player in the draft (I highlighted the important part):

Stephen Curry is the 2nd best player in this draft. This one got some steam when Blake Griffin told the world that he believes Curry is Numero Dos next to his Top Dog, but we have rated Curry as the 2nd best player for a long time. Curry is going to be an amazing ball-dominant scoring point guard in the NBA. He will not be faced with the double and triple teams he saw at Davidson and the NBA’s perimeter defensive rules will allow his hesitation-based pick and roll game to become an influential player—-operating as a sort of inverted Tony Parker by making a living off of mid-range pick and roll jumpers and threes (as opposed to Parkers mid-range pick and roll jumpers and layups). If Curry is on the board at #6, you take him and don’t let go.

As I mentioned in the comments in a previous post, Tony Parker wouldn't be Tony Parker next to Ricky Rubio. Being off the ball would turn Parker into an average player. Being off the ball will turn Curry into...well, we don't know because he certainly is a better shooter than Parker. Once the Rubio pick was made, the Wolves had their dominant on-the-ball guard and Curry would have had to step into a significantly different role than what we saw from him in college. The more I think about it, perhaps the Curry Conundrum isn't the real missed pick. Here's what I wrote in our final draft board post (highlights are again added for emphasis):

DeRozan was able to score at USC without even the threat of three point proficiency. He made up for his lack of outside shooting by racking up a 56% mark from 2 with 49% in isolation, 43% in catch-and-shoot, and 41% on pull up jumpers. Throw in an above average OReb% for his position as well as a modest ability to get to the line and you have a player with upper-level athleticism and a....boring middle range workman-like game. Think Ryan Gomes with hops and a higher upside rather than Gerald Green or Vince Carter. DeRozan is the type of player who will need a good point guard at the next level. Until he can develop his dribble-drive game, he will need to be set up in the 1/2 court. While we all wait for that to happen, he has the tools to be a good defender, excellent rebounder for his position, and a solid mid-range player. If the Wolves make a trade up to the two spot for Rubio, DeRozan is exactly the type of player you want to put with him at the off guard spot. Just remember that he's more lunch bucket than someone with that type of athleticism would suggest.

The problem with DeRozan is that even I don't think he was the BPA at 6 with Curry on the board. He would have been a pick for fit and potential more than anything else.

That about does it for this post. Do the Wolves break camp with Flynn and Rubio? Do they make a trade? If so, who do they make a trade with? What say you? Up next we'll work on a post about what Flynn brings to the table and figuring out whether or not he can co-exist with Rubio. We'll then move on to the forgotten pick: Wayne Ellington.