SB Nation - Ricky Rubio

Congratulations Utah!!!

Stop-n-Pop — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 04:46:03 -0000

You are now responsible for 1/2 of the Wolves' victories. Well done. A zombie dance for you.

Game wrap in a bit.

UPDATE: Game wrap below the fold.

The Jazz are an interesting team. On one hand, they have some thoroughly non-enjoyable/unlikable talent. Carlos Boozer is a Dookie in preparation for leaving a 2nd team in his wake, Kyle Korver is a silly Iowegan, and Jerry Sloan will continue to coach as if the league were still in the midst of a coked-out pre-80s haze. On the other hand, they have the player I consider to be the best and most entertaining point guard in the game: Deron Williams. As much as I cannot stand to watch a backstabbing Dookie, Coach Cleaver, and the most annoying fellow Creighton Jayhawk in the world, there is no player I enjoy watching more when he is "on" than the former Illini point.

A couple of games ago the Wolves' TV crew ran a poll about who they thought was the best point guard in the game. I can't remember who they ended up picking, but for my money's worth, if I'm putting together a squad to win it all, here are my top 3 picks at the point: Williams, Rajon Rondo, and Tony Parker. Williams, to me, is the greatest surgeon in the game. He's not as flashy as Chris Paul or Steve Nash but he's physically dominant for his position with a balanced game that picks apart his opponent with precision and consistency. From the line, from mid-range, from beyond the arc, in transition, in 1/2 court...the guy does it all. He was playing out of the post of several key possessions in the 4th quarter and it baffles me that Sloan didn't ride that horse hard. Plus, when the game is on the line and time is running off the clock in a must-win playoff game, he can get his shot off in traffic, which is an amazingly important trait that some possess while others do not. Sorry CP3, I want D-Will for that possession.

Anywho, the first thing that should be pointed out about last night's tilt was that Williams was the best player on the court and it wasn't even close. He shot the lights out from the floor, got to the line a ton, dished out 13 assists, and...well, (robot voice on) Jerry Sloan is a fantastic coach and he knows exactly how to use Mr. Williams (robot voice off).

OK, now that we've talked about Utah's point guard, let's take a few minutes to gab about Jonny Flynn. Flynn undoubtedly shows flashes of brilliance. His quickness is world class and while he still needs to learn a thing or two about running a pro offense, his court vision is top shelf. His outside shot is surprisingly serviceable and should he ever develop an ability to dish off of the drive, he'll be damn near unguardable. That being said, the flashes of brilliance are accompanied by stretches of outright boobery. The CP3 inbounds boner in the NOLA game stands out over anything else but he is also guilty of overdribbling, going too much to his right, and inexcusably holding the ball when it is rotated his way on a nightly basis. Adding to our T-Wolves dictionary (first addition: Brewsist) is the Jonny Stop: The way in which a freely moving ball is stopped by an ultra-quick lead guard who uses the opportunity to survey the court and negate his greatest strength, his speed.

Watching Flynn play the point you can practically see his High School/AAU/Syracuse coaching play out in a motion picture thought bubble above his head. This kid has been the dominant lead guard for so long, and he has played for so long against such relatively inferior competition, that his first instinct in close games and/or highly leveraged situations is to do what he has always done: Be the be-all/end-all of ball movement and end the damn possession for his team. At Niagra Falls High, NY AAU, and Syracuse, his speed alone was enough to get the job done. No need for setting up teammates. No need for creating angles. No need for worrying about the shot clock. When the heat was on, it was Jonny, the ball, and his defender. This kind of nonsense will not fly in the NBA for a player like Flynn. He's not that quick. Maybe it will have its time and place in a few years when he gets the benefit of the whistle and learns how to better incorporate his teammates, but not now. While Flynn ended the contest with a career high in points while shooting the lights out from beyond the arc, he stunted several key possessions with the Jonny Stop. Also, while I'm very, very happy that he made the game winning shot, I think I suffered a Randy Foye flashback with the kamikaze drive down the right side of the lane. At least he didn't try and bank it off the shot clock.

Let's wrap this up with some bullet points.

Should the Wolves have lost, Kevin Love and Damien Wilkins would have been my choices for goats of the game. There is no dumber shot in all of basketballdom than the foot-on-the-line 3. There is no excuse for it. It has all the risk of a 3 pointer with none of the reward. Dumb, dumb, dumb, and more dumb. Love and Wilkins both made toe-on-the-line 2 pointers.
While Flynn took some heat earlier this season for an ill-conceived behind-the-back pass attempt, he and Love ran the behind-the-back pick-and-roll twice in the last two minutes of the game and it netted them two wide open three point attempts. It's really not a flashy play and it has the potential to be a nice addition to the offense. I want to see a lot more of the middle pick and roll with Love and Flynn.
The star of the game has to go to Corey Brewer. There were a few points in the game where Brewer reverted to the holy-crap-he's-everywhere kind of player that we got kind of excited about a few weeks ago. He was dunking, sticking shots, rebounding, and holding people up on defense all night long. It really is amazing how different this team looks with competent wing play. Imagine if they had some outside shooting to go along with the competent wing play. Paging Rudy Gay.
If the flash went to Flynn and the star went to Brewer, the workhorse award goes to Big Al Jefferson. The guy is really starting to return to form and he played the role of the bruising running back, grinding out short yardage situation after short yardage situation in order to keep drives alive and his team in the game. This site has been home to a long standing debate over the relative worth of Jefferson and Kevin Love for about 2 years now and my current thoughts on the duo are this: The problem with the Wolves is not Al Jefferson and Kevin Love. Neither has the advantage of playing with a consistently competent wing player or an outside shooter worth his salt. Neither has the advantage of playing with a group of properly-sized perimeter players. There is nothing wrong with having 1 or 2 undersized players in your rotation provided that you surround them with athleticism and length. Al and Love have complimentary skills and they are obscenely skilled on the offensive end of the court. My take on the pairing is that they are still in need of a Joakim Noah/Jason Thompson 3rd wheel and a pair of athletic slashers on the wing. I have been saying this since before Love came aboard. In the front court I want the aforementioned Noah/Thompson type and on the wing I have opined for, in order, Josh Smith, Trevor Ariza, and Rudy Gay. This team can put it together with some competent wing play and for either Flynn or Ricky Rubio to work out at the point...or for John Wall to land at the doorstep of 600 First Avenue. Wings, an athletic backup big, and hashing out the point guard situation, these are the things that need to be worried about before talking about whether or not Love and Jefferson can play together. Rudy Gay, Rudy Gay, Rudy Gay. Please, get 'r done. It has been obvious for over 2 years.

OK, that does it for tonight's wrap. We'll have a very cool announcement on the site tomorrow and then I'll follow that up with a post on the Lynx's choice in the supplemental draft, Rebekkah Brunson.

PS: If you really want to know why the Wolves won, it was because they collected a very large number of their misses:

	Pace	Eff	eFG	FT/FG	OREB%	TOr
Minnesota	98.0	112.2	52.4%	27.7	32.6	15.3
Utah		110.2	53.7%	25.9	17.1	12.2

When you have an eFG of over 50% and you are collecting a 1/3 of your misses, life is good. This is another reason why you don't want to monkey with the Love/Jefferson duo. If you surround them with competent perimeter players, they will destroy the boards. BTW: We need to come up with a Wolves Dictionary term for when Love grabs an offensive rebound in between 3-4 defenders.

The Jonny Pod

Stop-n-Pop — Sun, 13 Dec 2009 23:54:56 -0000

I know I promised a double game wrap so let's quickly deal with the Laker game before moving along to the tilt that, unfortunately, says the most about Our Beloved Puppies: The Lakers are the best team in the NBA and there is no shame in losing to a team that could end up as one of the all-time greats. The end. As for the Kings...

I'm a big Apple fan but one of the things I can't stand the most about the company is their willingness to spring new products on their consumers with little or no warning. My personal experience dates back to the little iPod you see above. I went out and bought that little doohicky about a week, maybe two, before the iPod video launched.

I enjoyed my iPod. It iPoded well and was able to hold nearly all of my music. Yet, it probably became irrelevant at just about the time I bought it.

And so begins the career of Jonny Flynn in a league with Tyreke Evans.

I'm not really sure what the correct word is for what Evans did to Flynn last night but here are several that I think should qualify for a chance at the title: eaten, mangled, transmorgified, cold-cocked, and stampled (I made this one up). Whatever it is, I'm sure we Wolves fans will have more than enough up-close opportunities to figure it out over the next however many years.

The most disappointing thing about last night's game wasn't the action on the court. The Wolves played well early on their 4th game in 5 nights spanning from Toronto to Minneapolis to LA to Sacramento and they lost Ryan Gomes to an ugly ankle injury. It was one of those games where you can probably talk yourself into chalking the loss up to a little bit of a lack of effort, a little bit of indifference, and a whole lot of "let's get out of here". What was most disappointing about the game is that for all the talk of two top draft picks, Ricky Rubio, and future assets, the Kings--a franchise that was below the crap-ass level of the 2008/09 Wolves--fell into a bit of luck (see Evans, Tyreke) and are now miles and miles and miles beyond the Wolves. A bad game is a bad game is a bad game is a bad game (believe me, I watch the Wolves) but last night's demolition was something more. It was a realization that the Kings have something that cannot be answered by Jonny Flynn or Ricky Rubio....to say nothing of what Jason Thompson and a legit 7 footer (Spencer Hawes) means for the Wolves' front line.

For 4 quarters Evans had his way with the Wolves' back court. From post ups to Manu-esque below-the-rim drives to the hoop the guy got what he wanted when he wanted it and he did so primarily because of his physicality. He physically dominated his position more than anyone else on the court. I know we talked about his physical upside in the lead up to the draft but....well, there it was on full display. The guy is LeBron James at the point, and yes, I went there. Maybe Manu with muscles is more like it. Congrats to the Kings for finding the bit of luck that all franchises need to make the big jump from level to level.

Who is that guy for the Wolves? Well, if there is one thing to hope for it is that John Calipari can go 3-3 with dominant lead guards in the NBA Draft. If Derrick Rose is the speedster and Tyreke Evans is the physical powerhouse, here's hoping that John Wall is a magical combination of the two and that the Wolves finally end up with the top pick.

Wrapping this up, last night's loss had more to do with roster management than anything else. The Wolves have fallen behind yet another young bad team that they were ostensibly ahead of last season. At least they didn't find themselves in this position because they passed on or traded Evans in the draft. Kahn's got that going for him.

Until later.

Bobcats Fans Don't Have A Consensus of Trust

David Arnott — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 17:17:05 -0000

More photos » by Chuck Burton - AP

Browse more photos »

Ultimately, I think what we all want from the Bobcats is a consensus of trust. I want to be able to look at whatever my team does and think to myself: "Absolutely... Makes all kinds of sense... That's perfect..." like New England Patriots fans did with Bill Belichick circa 2003, or, more appropriately, like Seattle Mariners fans are doing right now. I'm pretty certain this is what fan contentment looks like, even when the team isn't yet a championship contender:

What am I supposed to write about when they’re doing exactly what we suggest, targeting players we’ve already advocated for because they make a lot of sense? I mean, yeah, the team is getting better, but I’m running out of material. I don’t know how many different ways to write "woohoo! good move!"

And then Larry Brown goes and tells Rick Bonnell something like this:

Brown says no more than three guards should play regularly, but there are all sorts of conflicting goals to service: He is trying to develop the rookies, he's trying to help D.J. Augustin get back his confidence, and he'd rather Stephen Graham not disappear through no fault of his own.

[snip]

Short of some trade that would swap a guard for a viable 4-man, this is going to be improvisational.

"Maybe we need to re-explore playing Tyson (Chandler) there," Brown said.

The potential to play Chandler as a center and a power forward was one of the incentives for the offseason trade of Emeka Okafor. But that hasn't happened much, with Chandler still not all the way back from ankle surgery.

"We've got to get him to a point where he's comfortable and confident, and he's not playing that way right now," Brown said. "The more he plays, the more confidence he gets and then maybe we can play him more" at multiple positions.

1 -- I'd like to know what, exactly, Brown is doing to "develop the rookies", because he's certainly not giving them NBA minutes. Gerald Henderson is averaging 9.3 minutes per game, and he's played fewer total minutes than all but SEVEN first round picks this year, and five of those guys haven't even played in the NBA at all, for various reasons (Blake Griffin, Ricky Rubio, Victor Claver, B.J. Mullens, Christian Eyenga). The two others? Jordan Hill has been a disaster in New York and James Johnson was beaten out for playing time by second round rookie Taj Gibson in Chicago.

2 -- Stephen Graham absolutely should be the odd man out, and that this is an open question speaks volumes about what Larry Brown values. What does Graham do that a combination of Henderson and D. Brown at guard and forward can't do? Even if you think Graham is better right now than those two, is he so much better than either of them that the benefits of giving the rookies minutes are outweighed by Graham's awesomeness? Seems to me that explicitly demoting Graham gives minutes to the rookies. Two problems solved.

3 -- We're really going to revisit Tyson Chandler at power forward? Really? I feel like I'm taking crazy pills. I understand the desire to give Nazr Mohammed more minutes based on his inspired run this season, even though I think Chandler's the better bet moving forward to be a more productive total player, but playing Chandler at power forward, given what we know about him and the rest of this team, should simply be a non-starter. There's no way he can guard the quickest PFs like Josh Smith, and the only reason we should even consider playing him alongside Nazr is if we're facing a twin tower lineup like Sheed-Garnett or Shaq-Z. If we can't make a trade for someone like Sean Williams, who's been marginalized on his current team, then we should stay in our holding pattern and give minutes to D. Brown in the power forward slot, or (deep breath) give Alexis Ajinca chances to sink or swim. Either way, I don't think playing Chandler at the four advances any objectives, whether that's giving playing time to younger guys or winning now, or trying to juggle those two objectives.

All I want is to hear the Bobcats are mulling a move, or have made a move, and know before I even look at the details, that it's probably a good idea and not just some desperate ploy, or shuffling of deck chairs in the vague hope something changes for the better.

Alternate Realities in the Timberwolves' Universe

wyn — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 00:33:02 -0000

"Every man on that transport died! Harry wasn't there to save them, because you weren't there to save Harry." - Clarence the Angel

Now that Thanksgiving's over, it's ok to put up your Christmas lights (or winter decorations for any holiday you celebrate). In my family, it also means watching It's a Wonderful Life. If you hate America and therefore haven't seen it you can watch the whole thing here. Suffice to say that George Bailey is a man who runs into serious money problems and decides to jump off a bridge. But instead of plummeting to his death, Bailey is saved by Clarence the Angel. Clarence then does George a "solid" by showing him the world as if it had never been graced by George's presence.

Like Mr. Bailey, Wolves General Manager David Kahn has gotten some people angry with him as the team's 1-15 start has been softened only slightly by the recent win in Denver. After all, Kahn is the man responsible for acquiring 2/3 of the players on this year's roster. The criticism of Kahn includes, implicitly or explicitly, the assertion that the Wolves would be better off without some or all of the moves he made.

So to get us in the holiday spirit, let's consider life for the Timberwolves had this summer gone differently (whether David Kahn exists or not is immaterial at this point, so the tie-in to It's a Wonderful Life weakens... let's just move one).

What follows are scenarios of varying plausibility with the corresponding win shares (defined here) and contract commitments (see here for details on options and such).

Thanks, as always, to Basketball-Reference.com for being the best stats site for the NBA. And for more Wolves What Ifs, check out Mike's recent post at TWolvesBlog. Thanks to Mike for getting me to finish my earlier draft of this post.

[EDIT: Not sure why I had the record wrong, thanks commenters.]

Before diving into rampant speculation, it's worth talking a bit about what they're based on: win shares. Did you read the linked explanation? If you're unfamiliar with win shares, do it. The biggest caveat mentioned in that article is attributing team success to individual players doesn't necessarily work. This is an obvious problem in the scenarios below, as Shelden Williams is one of the biggest win producers. Do you think Williams earned his 1.2 wins all by his lonesome, or is it possible Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, Ray Allen, Rajon Rondo, Rasheed Wallace and Kendrick Perkins might help Williams' win share production? Right. Likewise, Corey Brewer's -0.3 win shares could be explained largely by his logging the most minutes on a team with only two wins, or it could be that the team only has two wins because Corey's playing so much. Such is the nature of win shares.

Current Roster

Here we sit after a whirlwind offseason, a couple quality players worth building around, some expiring contracts, some future picks, the rights to Ricky Rubio, and 2 measly wins. The future's bright, but the present is a complete downer.

Al Jefferson	0.7	$12,000,000	$13,000,000	$14,000,000	$15,000,000
Ramon Sessions	0.5	$3,670,667	$3,964,320	$4,257,974	$4,970,000
Ryan Gomes	0.4	$3,867,500	$4,235,000	$4,602,500	$4,970,000
Nathan Jawai	0.3	$736,420
Oleksiy Pecherov	0.3	$1,547,640
Ryan Hollins	0.3	$2,183,333	$2,333,333	$2,483,333
Brian Cardinal	0.1	$6,750,000
Damien Wilkins	0.1	$3,630,000
Jason Hart	0.0	$825,497
Jonny Flynn	-0.1	$2,969,280	$3,192,000	$3,414,720	$4,329,865	RFA
Corey Brewer	-0.3	$2,916,120	$3,703,472	RFA
Sasha Pavlovic	-0.3	$1,500,000
Wayne Ellington	-0.4	$1,003,560	$1,078,800	$1,154,040	$2,083,042	RFA
Kevin Love	n/a	$3,401,040	$3,638,280	$4,609,701	RFA
Mark Blount	n/a	$7,967,375
(Antonio Daniels)	n/a	$5,863,580
(Chucky Atkins)	n/a	$760,000
Total	1.6	$61,592,012	$35,145,206	$34,522,268	$30,934,534	$0

Alternate Universe 1

The trades with Washington or the LA Clippers never happened, nor was Ty Lawson traded to Denver. The the same picks at #6, #18 and #28 were made. In free agency the Wolves held on to Shelden Williams, Kevin Ollie, and Rodney Carney, but let Jason Collins walk. Facing roster glut, Bobby Brown and Mark Madsen were cut. This was in spite of Brown's superior performance to Corey Brewer and Wayne Ellington thus far due to financial commitments.

Shelden Williams	1.2	$825,497
Ty Lawson	1.0	$1,438,680	$1,546,560	$1,654,440	$2,544,529	RFA
Mike Miller	0.9	$9,780,937
Craig Smith	0.8	$2,300,000
Al Jefferson	0.7	$12,000,000	$13,000,000	$14,000,000	$15,000,000
Ryan Gomes	0.4	$3,867,500	$4,235,000	$4,602,500	$4,970,000
Kevin Ollie	0.4	$825,497
Rodney Carney	0.4	$825,497
Sebastian Telfair	0.4	$2,500,000	$2,700,000
Randy Foye	0.2	$3,575,761	RFA
Brian Cardinal	0.1	$6,750,000
Jonny Flynn	-0.1	$2,969,280	$3,192,000	$3,414,720	$4,329,865	RFA
Corey Brewer	-0.3	$2,916,120	$3,703,472	RFA
Wayne Ellington	-0.4	$1,003,560	$1,078,800	$1,154,040	$2,083,042	RFA
Kevin Love	n/a	$3,401,040	$3,638,280	$4,609,701	RFA
(Mark Madsen)	n/a	$2,840,000
(Bobby Brown)	n/a	$736,420
Total	5.7	$58,555,789	$33,094,112	$29,435,401	$28,927,436	$0

Maintaining last year's roster may have improved the team's record to 6-11, but the franchise won't be players in next year's free agency bonanza (unless they let Miller, Smith, Foye and others walk for nothing) and there are four players (Ollie, Flynn, Lawson and Telfair) who require minutes at the point. They also don't have Ricky Rubio's rights and you may notice that they're actually committed less salary in this scenario than in reality. It's not a huge improvement in the win column, but it's an improvement none the less and the future is still rather bright. But we can do better.

Alternate Universe 2

In this scenario, the trades with Washington, the Clippers or Denver still don't go down and the Wolves have draft magic that allow them to draft the player with the most win shares from amongst the pool of available players (with this method, their 2nd round picks would have been AJ Price and Lester Hudson. Each has a win share equal to Brian Cardinal and therefore wouldn't have improved this scenario). Free agency, as before, brings back Williams, Ollie and Carney and shuns Collins. Madsen and Brown are cut.

Brandon Jennings (#6)	1.4	$2,969,280	$3,192,000	$3,414,720	$4,329,865	RFA
Shelden Williams	1.2	$825,497
Ty Lawson (#18)	1.0	$1,438,680	$1,546,560	$1,654,440	$2,544,529	RFA
Mike Miller	0.9	$9,780,937
Craig Smith	0.8	$2,300,000
Al Jefferson	0.7	$12,000,000	$13,000,000	$14,000,000	$15,000,000
DeJuan Blair (#28)	0.7	$1,003,560	$1,078,800	$1,154,040	$2,083,042	RFA
Ryan Gomes	0.4	$3,867,500	$4,235,000	$4,602,500	$4,970,000
Kevin Ollie	0.4	$825,497
Rodney Carney	0.4	$825,497
Sebastian Telfair	0.4	$2,500,000	$2,700,000
Randy Foye	0.2	$3,575,761	RFA
Brian Cardinal	0.1	$6,750,000
Corey Brewer	-0.3	$2,916,120	$3,703,472	RFA
Kevin Love	n/a	$3,401,040	$3,638,280	$4,609,701	RFA
(Mark Madsen)	n/a	$2,840,000
(Bobby Brown)	n/a	$736,420
Total	8.3	$58,555,789	$33,094,112	$29,435,401	$28,927,436	$0

8.3 wins ain't too shabby, bringing the Wolves' to an 8-9 record. This scenario presents the same 2010 free agency problem as the previous one, but the future is a tad brighter with Jennings, Lawson and Blair instead of Flynn, Ellington and a future 1st. The point guard glut also still exists, merely swapping Jennings for Flynn. I know what you're thinking: we can do better. And you're right.

Alternate Universe 3

Corey Brewer's win share total of -0.3 is the worst among all players considered in this experiment, so forget his option and cut him. Ramon Sessions and Ryan Hollins, on the other hand, are in the top 14 in win shares for all of the considered players, so they're worth using the MLE on. Unfortunately, that means eating Brian Cardinal's salary, in addition to Madsen and Brown. But, hey, we're in this for wins, right?

Brandon Jennings (#6)	1.4	$2,969,280	$3,192,000	$3,414,720	$4,329,865	RFA
Shelden Williams	1.2	$825,497
Ty Lawson	1.0	$1,438,680	$1,546,560	$1,654,440	$2,544,529	RFA
Mike Miller	0.9	$9,780,937
Craig Smith	0.8	$2,300,000
Al Jefferson	0.7	$12,000,000	$13,000,000	$14,000,000	$15,000,000
DeJuan Blair (#28)	0.7	$1,003,560	$1,078,800	$1,154,040	$2,083,042	RFA
Ramon Sessions	0.5	$3,670,667	$3,964,320	$4,257,974	$4,970,000
Ryan Gomes	0.4	$3,867,500	$4,235,000	$4,602,500	$4,970,000
Kevin Ollie	0.4	$825,497
Rodney Carney	0.4	$825,497
Sebastian Telfair	0.4	$2,500,000	$2,700,000
Ryan Hollins	0.3	$2,183,333	$2,333,333	$2,483,333
Randy Foye	0.2	$3,575,761	RFA
Kevin Love	n/a	$3,401,040	$3,638,280	$4,609,701	RFA
(Brian Cardinal)	n/a	$6,750,000
(Corey Brewer)	n/a	$2,916,120
(Mark Madsen)	n/a	$2,840,000
(Bobby Brown)	n/a	$736,420
Total	9.3	$64,409,789	$35,688,293	$36,176,708	$33,897,436	$0

This is the most expensive of the scenarios and the 2010 free agency problem remains. In fact, the Wolves eat $9.6 million more than in the previous scenario and only gain 1 win (9-8). That's probably not something that would impress Glen Taylor or fans. And, stop me if you've heard this before, but the team's got Jennings, Lawson, Sessions, Ollie and Telfair seeking minutes at point guard. That is, at least, if you want to reap their win shares in the total.

These alternate realities may be attractive to fans concerned about the win column, since a 2-15 start does little to build excitement for the current season. But there are some fatal flaws in calling Kahn's summer a bust this. First, you probably noticed that picking the best player at each opportunity in the draft is highly unlikely. Moreover, it's far too early to determine which rookies were better picks. I've also pointed out the point guard glut that a reliance on win shares creates. Lastly, another flaw with the Win-share-way-back-machine Model (that's trademarked, by the way) arises from the depth chart: the sum of minutes needed by each player to achieve their win share is likely higher than minutes available.

Even if David Kahn had made what appear now to be the right moves, the Wolves would be about a .500 team, they'd be out of the 2010 free agency class, they wouldn't have the rights to Ricky Rubio, they wouldn't have enough minutes to go around to an unbalanced roster, and they look like a team whose peak is the Western Conference Semifinals.

If that doesn't make you feel better, go watch It's a Wonderful Life and curse that evil Mr. Potter.

Dealing with no hope

Stop-n-Pop — Sat, 28 Nov 2009 04:43:16 -0000

Take a good look at that picture. That's the view from the "Wolves Section" of the Scheel's store in Mankato. 4 shirts (one of them to be picked up by yours truly) surrounded by 5 Celtics shirts, 5 Lakers shirts, 5 Cavs shirts, and some Dwight Howard and Paul Pierce gear. I was out and about at 9 AM for some Black Friday craziness and I'm pretty sure I didn't miss out on the Wolves rush. What I did miss out on was the North Star rush. Check out the Stars' apparel rack:

If you look to the upper right portion of the picture you'll see that the old-school Stars logo shirts were picked through to the bone; with only smalls and XXLs still available at the same time the Wolves had XLs and Ls still available to anyone with some cash in their wallet. For those of you playing along at home, that's a fully stocked apparel stash for a team that doesn't exist compared to 4 shirts for a team that was supposed to play on ESPN tonight.

I say "tonight" because I'm writing the game wrap with 2 minutes to go in the 3rd quarter and the Wolves are flirting with a 30 point loss to the Suns on a game that was preempted for the OKC/Milwaukee tilt on national TV.

For those of you who missed out on the nationally televised game because FSN and Channel 45 didn't pick up the slack, you didn't miss anything. In fact, you may be better off not seeing what happened at the Target Center on Kurt Rambis Glasses Night. The only intrigue available to the home fans was wondering if and when Kevin Love would take off his Rambis glasses while sitting behind the Wolves' bench. Really, that's the only interesting thing about this game.

The only other interesting thing about the game was that the Suns announcing crew took shot after shot at the Wolves' front office for putting together a team that clearly can't compete at an NBA level right now. From quickies about Ricky Rubio to extended stories about how the Wolves were consistently out of position, perhaps it was a good thing that the Wolves weren't granted a national audience tonight. If they did have a spot on ESPN they may go from 4 shirts at Scheel's to 1 or 2.

Some highlights from the game: Robyn Lopez torching Al Jefferson in his first minutes of the season, Earl Clark showing all sorts of versatility, Goran Dragic getting a rebound/put-back against 2 Wolves front court players, Jonny Flynn being completely unable to run a professional offense, several mentions of the fact that the Wolves traded away 2 starters for a guy who may never play at the Target Center, and Corey Brewer missing all sorts of layups and close shots.

That's about it. There is nothing good to say about this game. There is nothing good to say about this team. Forget Brewer's effort and Ramon Sessions' ability to run something close to approaching an NBA offense, this team is unwatchable right now and I am more interested in watching the Thunder take apart the Bucks right now than I am in writing about a team that doesn't even have 5 shirts at my local sporting goods store.

We all knew this would be a bad year. We all knew there would be a pause before the flurry of using the team's considerable offseason assets. That being said, who knew it would be this bad? How can this squad, and its fans, continue at this pace? The Wolves are not even close to winning a game right now. How on earth can they use said considerable assets to put together a competitive team before they lose the increasingly obviously frustrated Al Jefferson? Love coming back will help but will it help enough to bridge the gap between the hopelessness Wolves fans currently feel right here and the now and the time where they may be competitive some time in the next...what, 2 or 3 years? This team is off of the Minny sports radar. Here in Mankato I have MSU hockey on the radio and Dr. Laura will take over when that game is finished. No one is going to the bar to watch this mess. No one is going to Scheel's to buy a shirt or a jersey (except for this guy right here). Where is this headed? What is the end game? This is unwatchable basketball. Wolves fans deserve more than this. Even the diehards. We deserve more than this. This is nonsense.

To be perfectly honest, I don't look forward to watching these games any more. I really don't look forward to writing about them. What am I supposed to write about? We all know the score right now: A complete lack of talent and a bunch of guys who don't appear to fit together. Sessions is a player. Jefferson is a player. Brewer is a player with 4 other players around him. Flynn looks like a chicken with his head cut off. Opposing announcers talking at length about how Ricky Rubio will never play here....what the hell?! Were the folks at www.firedavidkahn.com ahead of their time?

I'm sticking through this but it is increasingly becoming a chore just to pay attention to what is going on. I'm sure fellow diehards feel the same. I know they do. I get emails.

Whatever the case, the long and short of today's lesson is that I got to buy a single Wolves shirt on Black Friday and instead of finding a Wolves sweatshirt for my daughter I bought her a youth basketball for Christmas before we sat down and watched the Thunder vs. the Bucks. Forget the Wolves. I want her to be exposed to real basketball. When will we see real basketball again?

Until later.

Spurs International Roundup: Tiago Plays Big

Wayne Vore (ATS) — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 03:03:39 -0000

Tiago took on the ACB Big Dog Barcelona this week. He didn't disappoint.

Tiago Splitter

Caja Laboral

ACB (Spanish League): 5-2

EuroLeague: 3-1

Age: 24

Height: 7' 0"

Weight: 240

1st round, 28th pick, 2007

In EuroLeague play, Caja scored buckets against Maroussi BC 103-86. However, Tiago didn't do much in this one as he was in foul trouble which limited him to 11:30. He managed just 7 points and 2 rebounds.

HOWEVER.

In the ACB, in which Barca crushed Caja 100-72, Tiago manned up and put in 24 points with 7 rebounds and 2 assists in 26 minutes. His boys got crushed though and found themselves down 31 going into the final 10 minutes. Still. This is an impressive performance against one of the two best teams in the ACB. It's always better to have big games against the good teams. Unless, you know, you are A-Rod.

Not much Tiago in here. Just one boring dunk. There is a great alley oop pass by a Barca guard.

Nando De Colo

Valencia

ACB (Spanish League): 6-1

EuroCup : 0-0

Age: 22

Height: 6' 5"

Weight: 185

2nd round, 53rd pick, 2009

Valencia doesn't start EuroCup until next Tuesday against Hemofarm Stada.

Valencia got a tough 75-71 win at home over Lagun Aro GBC in the ACB to improve to 6-1. Typical Nando. 10 points, 4 rebounds, 4 assists, and 4 turnovers. 0-5 from 3-pt and fouled out in 26 minutes. But hey, his team won.

Some nice passing by Nando.

James Gist

????

Age: 23

Height: 6' 9"

Weight: 220

2nd round, 57th pick, 2008

I'm going to put out an APB on James. Anybody? Bueller?

Robertas Javtokas

BC Khimki

Russian League: 2-1

EuroLeague: 3-1

Age: 29

Height: 6' 10"

Weight: 240

2nd round, 56th pick, 2001

BC Khimki improved to 3-1 in EuroLeague Group D with big win in Milano over AJ (for Armani Jeans) Milano 72-68. Robertas had 8 points and 4 rebounds. Keith Langford had a team-high 17 points to go with 5 rebounds and 3 assists.

In Russian League play, BC Khimki played a late Sunday game that isn't showing up in the scores yet. I guess we'll have to wait in suspense until next week.

Jack McClinton

Aliaga Petkim

Turkish League: 2-3

Age: 23

Height: 6' 2"

Weight: 185

2nd round, 51st pick, 2009

Aliaga Petkim got pasted by Turk Telekom 109-73. Ewwww, that's a butt whipping. Jack had 6 points on 3 for 11 shooting that included 0-5 from long range. He did have 3 rebounds and 5 assists.

Lamayn Wilson had 27 and 6 board for Turk Telekom. Bekir Yarangume posted 14 points, 11 rebounds, and 6 assists for the winners.

Asvel Basket

Tony's Team

French League: 2-5

EuorLeague: 0-4

Asvel kept itself winless in EuroLeague with a 76-62 loss to Barca. Ali Traore had 20 and 8 in the loss.

In French League play, Asvel dropped another one. This to Paris-Levallois 77-75. Traore had 13 and 4 in this game. Benjamin Dewar put up 20 for Asvel.

Angel Vasallo had 24 and 3 in the win.

Eric Dawson

Mitsubishi Diamond Dolphins

JBL (Japanese League): 1-13

Age: 24?

Height: 6' 9"

Weight: 235

Austin Toros 2007-2009

Mitsubishi keeps getting crushed. This time dropping a pair of games to Panasonic 90-71 and 86-70. Eric had 23 and 13 in the first game, but only 6 and 5 in the second game as he only played 19 minutes.

In the JBL, they play the same team on back-to-back days every weekend.

A Little Something About the ACB/Spanish League

The ACB is the best domestic league in Europe and I don't think there is a close second. They have 4 teams in the EuroLeague. Last year, in fact, they had 5 of the 24 EuroLeague teams. Caja, Barca, Real Madrid, and Unicaja are the 4 EuroLeague teams. Unicaja is 4-0 in EuroLeague and 1-6 in the ACB. Go figure.

Caja Laboral, as Tau Ceramica, has been a consistent final four team the last few years. Barca was a final four team last year, and it looks like Real Madrid is going to be a serious contender this year. I believe that all four teams made it out of group play and into the round of 16.

The ACB is top-heavy with powerful teams, but also has great depth as another 4 teams play in the EuroCup. Nando's Valencia squad, Gran Canaria, Ricky Rubio's former team DKV Joventut, and Bilbao Baskets.

Just to give you an idea of how good the rest of the ACB is, here is the list of the 8 teams and their current ranking in the standings after 7 weeks:

Real Madrid - 1
Barcelona - 2
Valencia - 3
Caja Laboral - 4
DKV Joventut - 5
Gran Canaria - 9
Bilbao Basket - 16
Unicaja - 17 (amazingly at 1-6 they have only been outscored by 5 points)

Britt Robson's 2009-10 Timberwolves Thumbnail Season Preview

wyn — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 19:36:37 -0000

This is the first post at Canis Hoopus by one of the best NBA writers in the nation, and hands down the best in Minnesota. Since we hope it won't be his last, please welcome Britt Robson with open arms and thoughtful comments. Or else!

First of all, my apologies to readers who wondered what happened to my Wolves writing. This summer I was approached by sportsillustrated.com regarding a regular column about the NBA in general. Since my last half-dozen items for Secrets of the City had been done gratis (through no fault of the site’s owners; it is a brutal economy and they carried me through the end of last season), this was a perfectly timed opportunity.

With a bird in the hand I went off looking for a place to post my Wolves stuff on a regular basis. Without boring you with the details, the rotten economy and the current low interest in the Wolves combined to make it extremely difficult to write about this team for even my relatively low wage (and yes, I understand many quality bloggers don’t get paid at all). The alternative is to set up my own site and ask all of you to chip in while soliciting corporate sponsors. But I’m lousy at that kind of thing, and frankly I’m so busy with other sports, music and politics assignments right now that not having the obligation of constantly doing the Wolves beat is a temporary blessing.

That said, I’ve been on this beat since 1991—coach Jimmy Rodgers was making his Wolves debut and the Twins were headed to the World Series when my first City Pages cover story on the team was published—and I want to keep it going in some way shape or form. Where, specifically, I still don’t know. But since I’ve always admired the guys and commenters at Canis, I decided this would be a good place to put up a necessarily quick and dirty Wolves preview. I’ve got a podcast today at si.com and when they asked me who else I wrote for, I impulsively said canishoopus.com. I guess I better get something up!

So, that’s three paragraphs about myself (now four) and nothing thus far about the Wolves. That’s what happens when you hit the big time.

The team you will see tonight is a disrupted work in progress. There are injuries large and small, roster imbalances, stylistic incompatibilities, and the abiding issue that the front office doesn’t even try to hide, which is that winning games is a distant third on the priority list, behind developing talent and securing future pieces (like a choice lottery pick). It is frequently going to be ugly.

In that sense, the preseason was predictably discouraging. The two best backcourt players by a wide margin—Ramon Sessions and Jonny Flynn--are very similar, and apparently too small to play together very often. The two best frontcourt players by a wide margin—Al Jefferson and Kevin Love—are likewise similar and undersized as a tandem, with the added detriment of, respectively, recovering from injury and being injured. A fifth player, Ryan Gomes, is a quality glue guy, a coach’s dream, who would be a valuable complement for any team in the NBA.

With the possible exception of Brian Cardinal, none of the players on the rest of the roster would make the nine-man rotation on a quality contender.

I understand that this noticeably excludes Corey Brewer, who after a woeful start shooting the ball, has had a fine preseason. I admit that a lot of my bias against Brewer is visual—he may be the skinniest NBA player I’ve ever seen, a virtual pencil from his neck to the ankles. It is great to see him begin to play with more confidence—his insecurity vied with his fundamentals as the main saboteur of his offense in previous years—but I don’t think he gets the call on those kamikaze drives to the hoop during the regular season, and I think as the regular rotation guys now hog the minutes, he is going to wear down and become less effective. That said, on this team he probably has an upside of 15-22 minutes as an energy boost and defensive irritant, so long as he cuts waaay back on his shots and exercises better judgment at the offensive end.

I also understand that I am dismissing some players for whom the jury should still be out, particularly seven-footers Ryan Hollins and Oleksiy Pecherov. While Kevin Love’s broken hand was extremely discouraging for Wolves fans—the fourth year in a row the first-round pick has been waylaid; Flynn and Rubio out to bubble wrap themselves throughout the next autumn—it does have the benefit of showcasing these big men for the next 6 weeks or so, and perhaps even allowing the slimmed-down Al Jefferson to play where he belongs. Of the two, Hollins seems to have the far greater upside—he actually wants to play the pivot rather than off-guard-- but even he lacks court vision seems surprised and mentally ambushed by the traffic whizzing and bashing by in the paint. Pecherov is a Euro big man, which is to say he can shoot far better than he can defend and seems more comfortable in general the further he gets from the hoop.

But it isn’t just the inexperienced kids. Interior defense is going to be a horrible flaw for this ballclub all year long. Jefferson has shown very little inclination to improve that part of his game, so let’s get this out in the open right now. Whether it is Wittman, McHale, Kahn, or Rambis, the credibility really suffers when a stir is made about what Big Al "has to do" on the defensive end. No, he doesn’t. He can play half-assed defense and still be tops on the pecking order. And that is a fundamental reason why this team should be docked a notch when you’re looking at preparations and readiness for future improvement. Quality franchises commit to defense.

Then there is the issue of what to do with the triangle offense. It is a complex scheme that takes months to develop for even savvy veterans. The question remains whether the Wolves have the right personnel to implement it this year—outside shooters and deft-passing bigs are two key components to the system. Yeah, Kevin Love in the low block is a good fit in terms of ball movement, but I would imagine that Rambis is more interested in Jefferson as high post facilitator and Love as one of the orbiters cutting and spotting out at the corner baseline. Not only is Jefferson’s skill set much better suited to the two-man game and the clear-out isolations, but the clearcut strength of both Sessions and Flynn is in getting to the basket via penetration. So, it will be interesting to see going forward how much and how thoroughly the principles of the triangle are tried.

One thing I will credit Rambis and Kahn for is living up to their notion of a running game. The Wolves aren’t the Suns nor Warriors by any stretch, nor should be they be (both of those teams will be dreadful this season). But they raced for more than 16 fast break points per game in the preseason, after getting less than 11 last year. Running, even controlled running, is a way to get easy buckets or to draw the foul. Those whistles have thus far been the biggest upgrade in the regime switch from Wittman/McHale to Rambis/Kahn. Minnesota shot a whopping 62 more free throws—nearly 8 more per game—than their opponents this preseason. That, as much as anything, is why they were able to post a 3-5 record despite shooting just 41.9% from their field while allowing their opponents to nail 48.8% of their shots.

So, to recap, Love is hurt, Jefferson is dinged, Flynn may be felled with the flu tonight and a long season awaits. The squad has two quality point guards and no off guard; two quality power forwards and no center. They are thin, talent wise and physically. They have a tremendous amount to learn and many of the people learning it won’t be around in a year or two.

I’ve generally liked the whirlwind of change Kahn has wrought, but that stuff always looks better in the offseason than when the actual games are being played. The honeymoon for the new regime should probably still be in effect, but it will be a very very small gathering for most of the season, as casual fans decide they’ll check in when the wins start mounting, which is no time soon. Meanwhile, while replacing Kevin McHale was indeed the correct move and is endorsed by most of the fan base, die-hard and casual alike, the coterie of McHale loyalists aren’t without ammunition even this early in the year.

They are right to wonder, for example, how viciously McHale would have been roasted for dealing away Ty Lawson, who had a fabulous preseason and may end up being better than both Flynn and Ricky Rubio. Perhaps they watched the Wizards upset the Mavs last night in large part because of the play of Randy Foye off the bench, and the value of no-shoot Mike Miller on a squad that doesn’t have enough touches to go around. Or maybe they saw Bassy and the Rhino provide a non-embarrassing element to the Clippers’ bench depth in the loss to the Lakers.

Would the status quo under McHale won more games than the 20-25 the current configuration will probably register? Most likely, yes. Is the long-term future for this franchise brighter than it was a year ago? Slightly, yes. But only slightly, because throwing away the bad and setting the table for the good are important but relatively the easiest part of the rebuilding process. Getting the right, synergistic personnel—the top star or two, the vital secondary piece or two, and the appropriate glue around that core—that’s the hard part. And the work ahead.

Now that everyone is back...

Stop-n-Pop — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 10:00:29 -0000

...let me take a quick moment to remind you about the other professional basketball team in town: the Lynx.

While we sit here and run through Ricky Rubio and Nikola Pekovic EL highlights, the Lynx have a young core with two All Stars, an Olympian, and a legit shot at the top two picks in next year's WNBA Draft:

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
-------------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- -----
Sacramento 42.00 30.16 18.13 9.71 0.00
Minnesota (via N.Y.) 26.10 28.43 24.62 20.02 0.83
Minnesota 16.70 20.74 26.28 31.47 4.81
Connecticut 7.60 10.34 15.49 38.80 27.78
Chicago 7.60 10.34 15.49 0.00 66.58

For all the talk of the Wolves putting together a team with good guys and hard workers, 5 minutes with the Lynx's media guide will leave you with nothing else but the firm belief that Target Center is home to one of the classiest organizations in all of professional sports....oh, and one with a bright, bright future on the court.

I know we are talking about the WNBA on the opening day of the NBA. I know the Lynx don't get much attention. That being said, I'd really like all of our NBA fans in the audience to give the Lynx a shot this year. Take a few minutes to look at the top players in women's college ball, pick up a ticket or two to a game next season....whatever it is, just give a few minutes to the Lynx and you won't be disapponited. There is no other professional sports team in the Twin Cities with as good of a core as the Lynx and with as bright of a future. If you love basketball, you will enjoy watching the Lynx. Again, this team is built around 2 All Stars, an Olympian, a top flight 1st year point guard, and 2 future tip-top 1st round draft picks. If the Wolves had this kind of pedigree they'd be the talk of the league.

Give the Lynx a shot.

2009/10 NBA Blog Preview: Washington Wizards

Mike Prada — Sun, 25 Oct 2009 09:00:16 -0000

More photos » by Matt Slocum - AP

Browse more photos »

This post is a part of the annual NBA Blog Preview series, sponsored by Celtics Blog and SB Nation. The project asks prominent NBA team bloggers to write a season preview for their respective squads. You can find links to all the other previews here. Today is the date for all the Wizards previews, so here is ours. Make the jump to read the whole thing.

Team Name: Washington Wizards
Last Year's Record: 19-63
Key Additions: Randy Foye, Mike Miller, Fabricio Oberto, Flip Saunders. If you want to be clever: a healthy Gilbert Arenas, a healthy Brendan Haywood, a healthy DeShawn Stevenson and $2.5 million from selling the 32nd pick in the draft
Key Losses: Darius Songaila, Etan Thomas (not key), Oleksiy Pecherov (not key), whoever was available with that fifth pick in the draft, the chance to draft DeJuan Blair.

1. What significant moves were made during the off-season?

Two days before the draft, the Wizards swapped the fifth pick and some frontcourt deadweight for Randy Foye and Mike Miller, two guys that certainly bring something to the table, but were overextended on an awful Minnesota Timberwolves team. Once Ricky Rubio slipped to the fifth pick, the trade was labeled as the Wizards "choosing" two role players over Ricky Rubio. This is a mischaracterization because neither Minnesota nor the Wizards expected Rubio to slip - keep in mind that the Timberwolves were desperately trying to swap the fifth and sixth picks to move up to the number two slot - but it is fair to say the Wizards went for proven guys rather than rookies. Ernie Grunfeld didn't want to draft a prospect that would need to develop, so he took sure things even though they might have lower ceilings.

As to whether the Wizards got as much value as they could ... that's a tough one. On the one hand, it was the league's worst-kept secret that the Wizards were going to swap that pick. Grunfeld certainly wasn't operating out of a position of strength, so it's impressive that he at least got two solid guys like Foye and Miller in a weak draft. On the other hand, Foye and Miller certainly aren't difference-makers on the level of, say, a Vince Carter, who was swapped for arguably a less enticing package that the Wizards could have put together. In addition, why do the move two days before draft day, when you don't know which players will slip? Maybe that fifth pick becomes more valuable once a team like Golden State or the Knicks or someone else sees Rubio dangling.

To this day, I'm not sure how to answer that question.

The underreported thing about the move is that Grunfeld was able to improve the team while shaving off some long-term salary. Miller and Foye both have contracts that end this year (though Foye has his qualifying offer), and by making this trade, the Wizards were able to eliminate the extra year on Darius Songaila's contract and the cost of paying the fifth pick from their payroll. This can be viewed either as a major coup for Grunfeld or a sign that the Wizards have conflicting priorities (winning and also saving money). The answer will probably depend on what happens down the road.

Regardless, the Wizards picked up two guys that fit into new coach Flip Saunders' system and the general win-now culture of the organization, though Foye has struggled to remember how to play the point guard position during the preseason. They'll improve the team in the short term, that's for sure.

If you're confused, let me try a poker analogy. (Maybe that confuses you more, we'll see). If this is the Wizards' idea of an all-in move, then it's very underwhelming. It's like shoving in 30 big blinds before the flop on Ace-Jack offsuit. However, if this is instead one of those plays you make to alter your table image in a way to help you make a bigger move later, or if this is one of those pots you go after in order to build your stack to become a difference-maker later in a tournament, then it's a worthwhile one. Here's hoping the Foye/Miller trade is a prelude of something bigger rather than a final move.

The Wizards also signed veteran Fabricio Oberto for the biannual exception to serve as an insurance big man and a good example to some of the young players on the team. Oberto had an excellent preseason, and I suspect he'll be a very good fit and a helpful piece to the puzzle. That said, it's tough for Wizards fans to look at the Spurs right now and see DeJuan Blair tearing things up in preseason. The Wizards could have drafted Blair with the 32nd pick, but instead sold it for $2.5 million in cash. That cash helped serve as a financial windfall for owner Abe Pollin for paying the luxury tax, and it made it easier to drop another $4 million if you include luxury-tax payments to sign Oberto, but Blair certainly provides a lot of elements (rebounding, toughness, a paint presence) the Wizards have lacked for years. Right now, one can't help but think that passing on Blair was a missed opportunity.

Am I forgetting something? Oh yeah, the Wizards hired a new coach, bringing in Saunders in late April. Saunders was clearly the best coach on the market, and that's even if Avery Johnson would have decided to leave his cushy ESPN job.

Saunders' balanced approach is perfect for this roster. He'll make subtle changes on offense to make the Wizards even more deadly in the half court, and he is a significant upgrade as a defensive coach over Eddie Jordan. He commands respect from the players because of his track record of success, and that's significant, because I don't know if this cast of veterans would have respected a young coach. Critics say that Saunders doesn't have a particularly great defensive reputation, but while he may not have as pronounced effect on his teams' defense as, say, Scott Skiles, the record shows his teams have been pretty solid defensively. Grunfeld was looking for a coach that could maintain the teams' offense while simultaneously upgrading the defense. Saunders fits the bill.

Saunders is also perfectly equipped to coach Gilbert Arenas. He's done a great job of involving Arenas in the team's decision-making, talking to him regularly over the summer and being completely transparent with his expectations. His offense is also known to improve the productivity and "pureness" of point guards. Just ask Stephon Marbury, Terrell Brandon, Troy Hudson, Sam Cassell and Chauncey Billups. Saunders is low-drama and all business, which sets a perfect tone in a locker room that may have gotten a little too crazy in recent years.

I'd venture to say Saunders is a bigger addition than any player the Wizards could have acquired. He's that good as a coach. The fact that it took me this long to remember to mention him shows you how much of an imprint he's already made on this organization.

2. What are the team's biggest strengths?

When healthy, this has always been a team that could score a lot of points. Now, with Saunders in tow, this should be a team that will score even more efficiently than before, spreading the ball around more than they used to and maintaining the proper floor balance to help fix their poor transition defense.

Saunders' grand plan is to put the ball in Arenas' hands and have him create a vast majority of the scoring opportunities. This is consistent with what Saunders has done with his point guards in the past, and it's a subtle, but significant change for Arenas. In Eddie Jordan's Princeton offense, Arenas was asked both to make plays on his own and score off others. He was essentially playing two roles - the point guard and the shooting guard. Saunders will instead use Arenas exclusively as a point guard, asking him to set up others more and do his own bidding off the dribble. Arenas has always been a better passer than he's perceived to be, and of course he's a spectacular scorer when healthy, but he often has struggled to balance those skills properly in such a way so that his teammates can play off him. Saunders' offense should simplify things for Arenas, and I expect him to have a very good year if healthy. He will likely lose some points off his scoring average, but I suspect he'll pick up more assists.

Saunders' offense should also help Caron Butler because Butler won't be asked to have the ball in his hands as much as before. Butler is not a bad creator, but it's clearly not his strength. Saunders should have him getting his touches in his comfort areas - 17 feet and in, on the baseline - rather than having him at the top of the key carrying the burden to create for everyone. It should help Butler's game and his longevity, as Butler has been hampered by nagging injuries in recent years.

Otherwise, Saunders' system, which emphasizes making the extra pass and getting the ball to the hot hand, should help a Wizards teams that has a lot of scorers, but hasn't really played much with each other. It's not that the Wizards are selfish - Miller, for example, was too unselfish last season, and Foye and Butler are good passers for their position - but they are still learning about each other's strengths. Saunders' pro-style system should ease the learning curve.

The Wizards are also a very deep team, though much of their depth is focused on the wing positions. They have several guys who have started games in the past couple years coming off their bench, and have some multi-position guys that can give Saunders the chance to trot out a ton of different lineups. It's a bit unclear how Saunders plans on using his depth, because he's favored tight, short rotations in the past, but he's an innovative guy who will figure out a good solution.

3. What are the team's biggest weaknesses?

Staying healthy. But that's a given. (Of course, two days after I write this, Antawn Jamison goes down for the first month with a shoulder injury. Boo karma).

Clearly, defense remains a weakness. Saunders is definitely a better defensive coach than Eddie Jordan. His Minnesota teams played very good defense, and I suspect the reason Saunders focused on offense so much in Detroit was because he knew offense, and not defense, was Detroit's weakness at the time. However, Saunders doesn't have a Kevin Garnett, Ben Wallace or Rasheed Wallace that can inspire the rest of his team to defend. The closest thing he has is Brendan Haywood, who is a tremendously underrated defender, but isn't the type of guy to light a fire under everyone else on the team.

There's actually a legitimate argument the Wizards are worse defensively than in the past on paper. DeShawn Stevenson, previously the team's stopper, might have his minutes squeezed with the additions of Foye and Miller, neither of which carry positive defensive reputations. Long, athletic Dominic McGuire started 57 games last year with all the injuries, but is unlikely to get too many minutes. Oberto is a solid position defender who is probably the best defensive backup to Haywood this team has seen in years, but he can't guard quicker post players and might not play much anyway.

The Wizards are hoping that a new voice will inspire a better defensive performance. Saunders has talked extensively about having one set defensive philosophy rather than several gimmick defenses to hide the teams' weaknesses, which is essentially what Jordan did. That should help a ton and eliminate a lot of confusion. It should be noted that, while Saunders is a big proponent of matchup zone, we haven't seen the Wizards practice it or go to it in games much, probably because Saunders wants to instill a core defensive philosophy first.

The Wizards are also hoping that a renewed commitment to defense in practice will help. Several players have said that Jordan didn't emphasize defense much in practice, and as skeptical as one should be with that statement, it is true that the Princeton offense takes a lot of time to pick up, meaning it needs to be practiced more than most offensive systems. With only a finite amount of time to practice, the more time spent making sure the players understand Jordan's complicated offense, the less time spent on practicing defense. Then again, the Wizards have used this rhetoric before. It means nothing until they prove it.

Those changes, along with reduced minutes for Arenas, Butler and Jamison and a healthy return for Haywood could easily vault the Wizards to the middle of the pack on defense. However, as we all know, unless your offense is historically good (think Phoenix circa 2005-2007), you need to be better than average on defense to be a legitimate championship contender. The Wizards are light years away from that status.

In particular, the Wizards are weak inside, at least compared to the other top teams in the league. Haywood is tremendously underrated, and Jamison is still very productive, but questions remain behind them. Andray Blatche is heading into his umpteenth must-produce year, and while he doesn't get enough credit for his diverse array of skills, he also has yet to show he can consistently be a role player for this team. Oberto is an effective player, but at 34, he is too old and in decline to be an effective third big man. Youngster JaVale McGee is a highlight player, but he still doesn't understand basic fundamental defense well enough to stay on the floor, and the Wizards have less patience for his mistakes this year than they did last year. A trade might have to happen to shore up this weakness in the short term.

The other potential problem is that there's just too much newness to adjust to quickly in a short period of time. Saunders still hasn't decided on a regular rotation, which hurts youngsters like Nick Young, McGee and Blatche because they're pretty inconsistent to begin with. Jamison's shoulder injury doesn't help because it's yet another thing to adjust to early in the season. I worry that, while the Wizards may be very dangerous late in the season once they've all learned to play with to each other, they may give up some games and key playoff seeding to get there.

4. What are the goals for this team?

I suspect the Wizards are thinking about this season like it's an Eastern Conference Finals or bust campaign. There's all this vague talk about "advancing in the playoffs," but the standard for organizational success seems to be making the NBA's Final Four. Still, with Boston, Orlando and Cleveland all making their move now, that's probably a pretty unrealistic goal to have. The Wizards could make a big trade and still be running fourth in a three-horse race. Unless one of those three suffers a rash of injuries, I have a hard time believing the Wizards will crack the top three in the East.

A more realistic goal would be to secure home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs, win their first-round series and put up a decent fight against one of those top three teams. What would a "decent fight" entail? I'm not sure, but I think it's safe to say it would be a better performance than what Atlanta gave against Cleveland in the second round of the playoffs last year. The Wizards could then more easily justify another round of going over the luxury tax, which would include re-signing Haywood, Miller and maybe Foye while making a talent upgrade.

5. Why isn't Gilbert Arenas talking to the media? Isn't this a problem?

Two reasons. One, he wants to be a little more serious about his game, and maybe he feels talking is a distraction. Two, he feels like they took advantage of his crazy personality to write unfair things about him. His logic is, if he doesn't talk, nobody will be able to twist his words.

Does it make sense? No, not really. Most of the league finds a way to talk without getting their words spun out of control. But that's just Gilbert. He always has to position himself on one extreme or the other.

Does this all matter? No, not in the slightest. All that matters is his health. Arenas is still the most important player on this team, and with so few options behind him at point guard in a point guard-heavy offense, one could even argue he's more important than ever. We've already talked about why he fits in well with Saunders' offense, so as long as he's healthy, I suspect he'll have a great year. For now, his knee looks good, but this is clearly as much of a long-term question as a short-term one. We'll just have to hope for the best.

Projected Finish: 47-35

Making it Wayne

Stop-n-Pop — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 03:53:53 -0000

OK, credit is due where credit is due, and I can't think of any better way to start this post than to give the Line of the Year (So Far) to LoveTo for his catchy turn of a phrase for when Wayne Ellington gets hot from beyond the arc. It's a long year and it will be a hard-fought contest, but LoveTo is in the early lead.

Getting around to the game, the Wolves finally put together 48 minutes of exciting ball. I can live with losing. I can live with being outmanned. What I can't live with is a sports entertainment franchise being boring. For far too long the Wolves have been both bad and unentertaining. Last night the Wolves scrapped, ran, moved the ball around, played scrappy defense, and out-efforted the Pistons by a wide, wide, wide margin, especially in the second half.

The Wolves had six players in double figures, two more with seven ponits apiece, 22 assists (well above their 16.3 average in the preseason), 46 FTAs, and only 9 turnovers. With their two best players out of action, the Wolves turned in an all-around team effort built on grit and hustle. The result isn't something you'd really want to bet on, but the effort was more than enough to make you want to watch...and that's about the best we can ask for with this young team.

A few random observations:

Ben Gordon is an $11 million bench player who duplicates what Rip Hamilton brings to the table...sans 4 or 5 inches.
Before the start of the Pistons game, 31.3% of the Wolves' preseason points have come from the charity stripe. That's a lot of free throws. Over 40/game to be exact. I could learn to live with that.
"Pinch Post" and "weak side action" are words casual Wolves fans will have to get used to with this new offense. For those of you who are unfamiliar with these terms, here is a link to a Pinch Post description and here's a video:

In other words, keep your eyes on the side of the court with two players. Also, get ready to fully understand why the Wolves will need a versatile swing man.

Speaking of swingmen and weak side action, the most important possession of last night's game started with just under 11 minutes left in the 4th quarter:
- 10:30: Richard Hamilton personal foul (Damien Wilkins draws the foul)
- 10:25: Richard Hamilton personal foul (Damien Wilkins draws the foul)
- 10:12: Richard Hamilton personal foul (Damien Wilkins draws the foul)
- 10:11 Jonas Jerebko personal foul (Brian Cardinal draws the foul)
That was the ballgame right there. 4 fouls in under 20 seconds and the Wolves were in the bonus with less than 2 minutes gone in the 4th quarter.
Hanny will always be a homer and he'll be easier to stomach when the Wolves finally turn the corner, but I have a feeling that J-Pete is in for a solid year of color commentating (is that even a word). I'm really looking forward to hearing how his coaching stint with the Lynx is going to affect his coverage. I want to hear about offensive sets, off the ball decision making, advanced stats, and other pro nuances and I think Jim is going to deliver. He's off to a solid start this season. Best of all, Jim is a big internet follower and I think he has a firm grasp on the role of blogs in team coverage and fan conversation. The guy knows ball and I think he's going to work his way into a solid groove where he will enable casual fans to have a much deeper understanding of the pro game.
Speaking of offenses and nuances, I was watching the Wolves' version of the Triangle and all I could think about was that one of the big things the Triangle offense is not known for is upper-level point guard play. I'm not saying that I'm not glad that Ramon Sessions, Jonny Flynn, and the rights to Ricky Rubio belong at 600 First Avenue, but does it qualify as an irony that the Triangle's "weakest" position is the one the Wolves sunk the most resources into? BTW: As a long time Bassy fan, let me put in my vote for Sebastian Telfair as the league's Most Improved Player. He was my favorite T-Wolf and I never did get my Bassy jersey. At least my daughter got an autograph.
Ramon Sessions needs more minutes. Dude can ball and he is a deceptively good defender. He hides in traffic and bursts out of nowhere into passing lanes. I have a bad feeling that Mr. Sessions will be involved in a mid-season trade.
Ryan Hollins is an athletic foul machine. He also jumped 7 feet in college. Holy. Crap.
Mr. Ellington, you are here to shoot the long ball. Good game.
Corey Brewer is showing some signs of being a...wait for it...NBA starter. For the first time in a long time, I watched a Wolves game where it was obvious that Brewer had confidence with his game and his shot. He was disruptive, all over the place, and he even had a few nice moves to the rim, one of which almost looked like George Gervin, with a sweet finger roll at the end. Brewer is my de-facto favorite Wolf now that Bassy is gone and I'm really rooting for the guy.

Well, that about does it for the wrap up. What say you?

Until later.

BTW: How cool was it to see this: