SB Nation - Los Angeles Lakers

Will Carroll on the Gasol Injury

DexterFishmore — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 04:24:22 -0000

Pau Gasol did not participate in the Lakers' practice today and will not play Thursday night against the Phoenix Suns. His strained right hamstring, which no one associated with the Lakers has ever described as serious, has now kept him out of game action for more than a month. The only information divulged by the team is that Pau is still experiencing pain in the hamstring and that there's no timetable for his return.

Out of curiosity and more than a little worry, I checked in tonight with sports-injury expert Will Carroll. Will, as many of you are no doubt aware, covers the injury scene for Basketball Prospectus and its sister publications and has written extensively in the past for both ESPN and Sports Illustrated. In the field of sports injuries his is the most authoritative media voice.

When I asked him for his take on the Gasol situation, Will was kind enough to share his thoughts:

It's not that unusual. He strained it, tried to come back too quickly, and re-started the process. If you think of it as two serial injuries, the timing makes more sense. Taken as one long process, it looks overlong. He needs to be more conservative this time, to make sure it stays at two.

Many of us suspected that Pau tried to return too soon, and Will's comments are unfortunate confirmation. And rest and taking it slowly are the answers here, so we shouldn't expect any quick fixes. He'll be back when he's back. The good news is that the prolonged wait probably isn't because it's an especially serious injury, but rather because he had to start his recovery all over again.

The 9.756097561% Report

Mike Lisboa — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 22:55:20 -0000

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With the season now just under 10% of the way complete (stupid 82 getting in the way of my round numbers!), I figured it's as good a time as any for a little progress report. In a nutshell, I think it's pretty safe to say, "Progress has been made."

Coach Gentry has set the 25 game mark as a his point for when he'll know what he's really got with this squad and I think that's a pretty level-headed decision on his part. However, I'll be checking in every 8 games with and odd fraction in the title to let you know what I think of the team.

Now, please raise your hand if you thought the Suns were going to be 7-1 at this point in the season? You may notice my hand is down along with everyone praying to a portrait of Cotton Fitzsimmons above their mantle. This team exceeding expectations so far. But let's not get too crazy. Here's some fun fact bullet points to get you pumped/un-pumped as you see fit.

The Suns are 5-1 on the road so far! That's great! I thought this was totally awesome until I realized they haven't done that since... last season. Yup, last season's epic fail started off with the Suns winning 5 of their first 6 on the road before going 13-22 the rest of the way.
That said, I wrote back when the schedule came out that if the Suns were at or above .500 after Thursday night's game with the Lakers they should get a parade and an automatic playoff berth. Well, mission accomplished, regardless of how they do in that back-to-back.
At no point this season has any observer thought to themselves, "You know, the Suns could sure use Shaquille O'Neal right about now."
Brother, can you spare a dime? Steve Nash has a mind-boggling 103 assists over 8 games. 2 20-assist games will do that for ya. He also has a league-leading 37 turnovers, but that assist-to-turnover ratio ain't too shabby.
Between assists and scoring himself, Steve Nash has accounted for at least 352 of the Suns' 887 points. That's almost 40% of their offense. And that's assuming all those assists went for 2 instead of 3. Amazing.
The Suns are one Steve Nash injury away from the longest season in NBA history.
It's always somebody: In his first 3 games, Jason Richardson went 6-16 from 3-point range while Channing Frye when 16-20. In the last 3 games, Channing Frye has gone 7-21 from 3-point range while J-Rich has shot 16-22. Darwin likes offensive diversity.
Brother, can you spare some charity? Steve Nash cannot. He's carrying the Suns with his .926 free throw shooting percentage. Despite that, the Suns are shooting less than 70% on gimmes. And winning.
He still spooks under pressure defense, but Goran Dragic has been giving the Suns a not-embarrassing 14 minutes per game. I'd like to see him initiating more of the offense (use them hops, young man!), but I'll take it. How you feeling about your bet, Dog of Watt?
Speaking of Goran, how about that bench? With at least 4 players cracking the 14-minute mark, that's a lot of rest for our starters.
Except Amar'e. 36.9 minutes a game. Pretty good for a guy who wasn't allowed to move athletically until pretty much training camp.
Also, about Amar'e. I don't think we've even begun to see him yet this season. That 25 game mark Alvin was talking about? As smart as he's been playing, he could be downright scary by then.
Jared Dudley. Jared Freaking Dudley. If Barbosa provides a spark off the bench then Dudley provides the fire. He's like Dan Majerle before Dan Majerle discovered the 3-ball.
Which reminds me: Hustle Dan and 3-Ball Dan were never on the court at the same time. Let's hope the same doesn't hold true for 3-Ball Jared and Hustle Jared.
Again with the 25 game thing. That 25th game? San Antonio. In Phoenix. On 2 days rest. No excuses.
It totally sucks to be Robin Lopez right now. The team is deep and rolling without him. How exactly does Gentry work him into the line-up?
8 games in and the Suns and their opponents are both averaging exactly 41.8 rebounds a game. Whodathunk?
The Suns have yet to play a top 10 team from the Western Conference. There's a lot left to prove.
Best. Record. In. The. NBA. Enjoy it while you can.

So overall the Suns are doing what they're supposed to be doing: beating the teams they should beat and one or two that pose a bigger challenge. With their next two games on national television, they have an opportunity to make a big statement or alternately, get exposed as paper tigers. Here's to hoping they have a couple of big roars in them.

2010 NBA All-Star Ballot Released

John Bena (aka CavsBlogger) — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 18:11:59 -0000

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The 2010 NBA All-Star Ballot was unveiled today during a special tip-off event in Dallas, the Official Host City of NBA All-Star 2010. NBA All-Star Balloting presented by T-Mobile will begin this afternoon at 12:30 p.m. ET. The 2010 NBA All-Star Game, which will air live on TNT and ESPN Radio in the U.S., and reach fans in more than 200 countries and territories in more than 40 languages, will be played at Cowboys Stadium in Arlington, Texas, before an expected crowd of more than 80,000 - the largest group ever to witness a live basketball game, on Sunday, Feb. 14, 2010.

2010 NBA All-Star Balloting presented by T-Mobile, with associate partner 2K Sports, allows fans around the world to vote daily for their favorite players as starters for the 2010 NBA All-Star Game. For the first time in balloting history, fans can vote for All-Stars any time by texting a player's last name from their mobile phones. Fans can cast one SMS vote per day, per phone number.

There are several ways fans can cast their votes, including: at each NBA arena; in 20 languages on NBA.com; and through mobile phones by texting the player's last name to 6-9-6-2-2 ("MYNBA"), via Web2Go® on T-Mobile phones or wap.nba.com for any wireless carrier. A T-Mobile-branded All-Star Balloting widget will also be available on NBA.com so that fans can "grab" the widget and place it on their blogs, social network pages, or personal Web sites allowing others to vote directly from the widget. Paper balloting will continue through Jan. 10, while wireless balloting and voting on NBA.com will conclude Jan. 18. Starters will be announced live on TNT on Thursday, Jan. 21, 2010.

The NBA All-Star ballot lists 120 players - 60 each from the Eastern and Western conferences - with 24 guards, 24 forwards, and 12 centers from each conference comprising the list. Voters select two guards, two forwards and one center from each conference. The 120 players on the ballot were selected by a panel of media who regularly cover the NBA: Mike Breen (ABC/ESPN), Eddie Sefko (Dallas Morning News), Doug Smith (The Toronto Star and President, Pro Basketball Writers Association) Marc Spears (Yahoo! Sports), Marc Stein (ESPN.com) and Ian Thomsen (Sports Illustrated).

NBA All-Star 2010 in Dallas will bring together some of the most talented and passionate players in the league's history for a global celebration of the game. The week leading up to the 59^th NBA All-Star Game will feature a full slate of community-enhancing activities and fan festivals, including NBA All-Star Jam Session presented by adidas and the T-Mobile Rookie Challenge & Youth Jam. This will be the second NBA All-Star in Dallas. The city also hosted the event in 1986.

In conjunction with All-Star Balloting, 2K Sports will give fans the opportunity to experience Dallas and the best of basketball by entering the NBA® 2K10 Sweepstakes for a chance to win a trip to NBA All-Star 2010 and have their likeness as a digitized player incorporated in next year's game, NBA® 2K11.

The following is a complete listing of the players as they appear on the ballot:

2010 NBA ALL-STAR EASTERN CONFERENCE BALLOT

EAST GUARDS (24)
Allen, Ray, Boston
Arenas, Gilbert, Washington
Bibby, Mike, Atlanta
Calderon, Jose, Toronto
Carter, Vince, Orlando
Crawford, Jamal, Atlanta
Duhon, Chris, New York
Felton, Raymond, Charlotte
Ford, T.J., Indiana
Gordon, Ben, Detroit
Hamilton, Richard, Detroit
Harris, Devin, New Jersey
Hinrich, Kirk, Chicago
Johnson, Joe, Atlanta
Lee, Courtney, New Jersey
Nelson, Jameer, Orlando
Redd, Michael, Milwaukee
Robinson, Nate, New York
Rondo, Rajon, Boston
Rose, Derrick, Chicago
Salmons, John, Chicago
Stuckey, Rodney, Detroit
Wade, Dwyane, Miami
Williams, Mo, Cleveland

EAST FORWARDS (24)
Beasley, Michael, Miami
Bosh, Chris, Toronto
Brand, Elton, Philadelphia
Butler, Caron, Washington
Deng, Luol, Chicago
Diaw, Boris, Charlotte
Garnett, Kevin, Boston
Granger, Danny, Indiana
Harrington, Al, New York
Haslem, Udonis, Miami
Iguodala, Andre, Philadelphia
James, LeBron, Cleveland
Jamison, Antawn, Washington
Lee, David, New York
Lewis, Rashard, Orlando
Murphy, Troy, Indiana
Pierce, Paul, Boston
Prince, Tayshaun, Detroit
Smith, Josh, Atlanta
Turkoglu, Hedo, Toronto
Varejao, Anderson, Cleveland
Villanuava, Charlie, Detroit
Wallace, Gerald, Charlotte
Warrick, Hakim, Milwaukee

EAST CENTERS (12)
Bargnani, Andrea, Toronto
Bogut, Andrew, Milwaukee
Chandler, Tyson, Charlotte
Dalembert, Samuel, Philadelphia
Horford, Al, Atlanta
Howard, Dwight, Orlando
Lopez, Brook, New Jersey
Miller, Brad, Chicago
O'Neal, Jermaine, Miami
O'Neal, Shaquille, Cleveland
Perkins, Kendrick, Boston
Wallace, Rasheed, Boston

2010 NBA ALL-STAR WESTERN CONFERENCE BALLOT

WEST GUARDS (24)
Barbosa, Leandro, Phoenix
Billups, Chauncey, Denver
Brooks, Aaron, Houston
Bryant, Kobe, L.A. Lakers
Davis, Baron, L.A. Clippers
Ellis, Monta, Golden State
Ginobili, Manu, San Antonio
Howard, Josh, Dallas
Iverson, Allen, Memphis
Jackson, Stephen, Golden State
Kidd, Jason, Dallas
Martin, Kevin, Sacramento
Mayo, O.J., Memphis
McGrady, Tracy, Houston
Miller, Andre, Portland
Nash, Steve, Phoenix
Parker, Tony, San Antonio
Paul, Chris, New Orleans
Richardson, Jason, Phoenix
Roy, Brandon, Portland
Sessions, Ramon, Minnesota
Terry, Jason, Dallas
Westbrook, Russell, Oklahoma City
Williams, Deron, Utah

WEST FORWARDS (24)
Aldridge, LaMarcus, Portland
Anthony, Carmelo, Denver
Ariza, Trevor, Houston
Artest, Ron, L.A. Lakers
Boozer, Carlos, Utah
Duncan, Tim, San Antonio
Durant, Kevin, Oklahoma City
Gasol, Pau, L.A. Lakers
Gay, Rudy, Memphis
Green, Jeff, Oklahoma City
Griffin, Blake, L.A. Clippers
Hill, Grant, Phoenix
Jefferson, Richard, San Antonio
Love, Kevin, Minnesota
Marion, Shawn, Dallas
Martin, Kenyon, Denver
Millsap, Paul, Utah
Nowitzki, Dirk, Dallas
Odom, Lamar, L.A. Lakers
Randolph, Anthony, Golden State
Scola, Luis, Houston
Thompson, Jason, Sacramento
Thornton, Al, L.A. Clippers
West, David, New Orleans

WEST CENTERS (12)
Biedrins, Andris, Golden State
Bynum, Andrew, L.A. Lakers
Camby, Marcus, L.A. Clippers
Gasol, Marc, Memphis
Hawes, Spencer, Sacramento
Jefferson, Al, Minnesota
McDyess, Antonio, San Antonio
Nene, Denver
Oden, Greg, Portland
Okafor, Emeka, New Orleans
Okur, Mehmet, Utah
Stoudemire, Amar'e, Phoenix

Why do advanced statistics hate Kobe Bryant? Part 1

C.A. Clark — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 18:00:49 -0000

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If you've got a lot of time with nothing to do, go into any NBA chat room or message board and ask the following question:

Who is the best player in the NBA?

It's a fun subject to dive into, as long as you are running with the right crowd. If people stay respectful and stick to arguing things on merit, making points based on logic, evidence and knowledge-based observation, it can be a jolly good time, with many different answers, each with their own valid points. You could go with LeBron James, the do-everything superstar. He scores, he passes, he rebounds, he makes julienne fries. If efficiency is your style, you could drop Chris Paul in the conversation. Nobody is better at turning the ball in his hands into points on the board for his team, either through extremely proficient shooting or very adept passing. If you like the big play, maybe Dwyane Wade is your man. He scores with the best of them, and does it all in a way that looks great on SportsCenter. If big men are your cup du jour, you could go with the young stud, Dwight Howard, or the old guard, Tim Duncan and Kevin Garnett. And, of course, this conversation wouldn't even be interesting if you didn't include Kobe Bryant.

There are tons of fans who put Kobe on the top of that list. Sure, lots of them are homeristic Laker lovers who create that list as much with their hearts as with their heads. But they aren't alone. There are plenty of NBA personnel who put Kobe at the top, or very near the top, of that list as well. He was second in the MVP balloting last season, behind LeBron James. A survey of NBA GMs ranked Kobe as 2nd most likely to win the MVP this season, and ranked him first in categories like "The player you'd most like to take a shot with the game on the line". In that same survey, the question was asked "If you were starting a franchise and could sign any NBA player, which player would you sign?" Kobe came in 3rd, behind LeBron and Dwight Howard, despite being more than 7 years older than some very attractive candidates like Wade and Paul. The point in all this? Kobe is very, very highly regarded in this league, both by people who think with their hearts, and people who don't.

So if I were to put a group of names in a list like this:

LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Chris Paul, Kobe Bryant

and ask you "Which of those players doesn't belong, and why?", it might be a tough task. You might think "Kobe is older than the other players" and you'd be right. You might think "only LeBron isn't a guard." But if I were to ask you "Which player on this list is significantly worse than the other three?", you'd be hard pressed to come up with an answer. They're all incredible, right?

Not according to advanced statistical metrics, they aren't. In fact, according to advanced statistics, Kobe Bryant is a distant fourth to the other three players. According to the most well known advanced statistic, Player Efficiency Rating (PER), Kobe was the 6th most productive player in the league last year, barely registering above Brandon Roy. He wasn't even the most valuable player on his own team, according to the Win Shares method (Pau Gasol) and the Adjusted +/- method (Lamar Odom). No matter the method, Paul, Wade and James comprise the top 3. No matter the method, Kobe is not ranked in the top 5. That's a pretty big disconnect with what was described earlier. In a two part piece, I will look at one particular advanced stat (PER), break it down to its individual components, and compare Kobe to other players in an effort to fully explain the disconnect between Kobe's analytical place in the game, and his statistical place in the game.

Now, I like to think of myself as a fairly open-minded Lakers fan. I don't think Kobe is the best player in the NBA. I give that honor to LeBron James. This is not to say that Lakers fans who do think Kobe is #1 are not open-minded. They are entitled to that opinion, and many of them could give you very good reasons why they think it to be true. In the end, this is a matter of opinion and there are no right or wrong answers, only well and poorly reasoned ones. I only mention my open-mindedness, and the subsequent evidence, as justification for the point I'm trying to make. Like I said, I don't think Kobe is the best player in the NBA. But not in the top 5? That's ludicrous, blasphemous, and just plain crazy.

Chris Paul and Dwyane Wade are terrific players. I'd be willing to listen to arguments that they are peers of Kobe Bryant. But for someone to suggest that, not only are they Kobe's peers, but far and away his superior, I just can't get on board with that. And yet, here come advanced statistics to tell us that Wade and Paul, along with James, aren't just better than Kobe is right now. They are better than Kobe has ever been, by a significant margin. Last season, LeBron James had a PER of 31.76. Dwyane Wade's PER totaled 30.46. Chris Paul clocked in with a round 30.04. Kobe Bryant? 24.46. In fact, the highest PER Kobe has ever had came in 2005-2006, when he topped out at 28.0. It's good, to be sure, but nowhere near as good a season, statistically, as any of these three players had last year. In order to figure out why, the first step is to get a truly thorough understanding of PER.

PER is the brain child of John Hollinger, probably the biggest name in the NBA stats world not employed by an NBA franchise. Hollinger writes for ESPN, and relies heavily on PER to determine predictions he makes about, well, everything. Which teams are going to be the most successful, which players are going to have breakout years, who the MVP is, almost all of his work is more or less related to PER. Love him or hate him, agree with him or think he's full of crap, you simply have to respect that he is probably the most successful "stat-geek" in the NBA, with the possible exception of Daryl Morey. So what, exactly, is PER?

PER is a catch-all stat which looks at every statistical aspect of an NBA player's game, and incorporates it into one simple number. Don't know how to measure the greatness of a point guard like Chris Paul against the production of a big man like Tim Duncan? That's what PER is for. It is regulated in every way that a stat can be. It is pace adjusted, so players from teams that play faster won't get inflated numbers. It's per minute, so players who play more have no advantage over players that play less. Hollinger creates these ratings for every player in the league, and then adjusts them so that the "average" NBA player in a given year has a rating of 15.00. PER has it's limitations, mainly in terms of assessing quality defense, and Hollinger himself is not blind to the fact that PER is not the "be all, end all" in terms of player evaluation. Or, at least, that's what he says, right before saying that PER clearly shows that LeBron James is having one of the greatest seasons in the history of the NBA, and is performing at a level that hasn't been seen since the days of Micheal Jordan.

After a lot of description, we're still no closer to what actually makes up PER. For that, I have to show you the formula, and I'm doing so only so that I can show off and you can know exactly how much time I've wasted preparing for this topic. You see, the formula for PER is enough to make all but the most statistically inclined very queasy. In fact, I can't even make it fit on our blog. Please click here, courtesy of Wikipedia, to see what I'm talking about. (If you don't approve of this being displayed, Mr. Hollinger, you have my sincere apologies).

Did you really look at the formula? If you tried to cheat without taking a peek, please go back and take a look. Otherwise, you will fail to be sufficiently impressed when I tell you that I manually (and by manually, I mean in Excel) calculated Kobe's PER from last season. Why would I engage in such a ridiculous task? So that I could bring you Kobe's PER, broken down by each individual component. When broken down this way, we can see that PER credits a player for the positive aspects of his production, represented by the positive numbers in the table below, and balances those against the negative aspects of his production, represented by the negative numbers below. Positive production includes field goals and free throws made, assists, rebounds, blocks and steals. Negative production includes fouls committed, turnovers and field goals and free throws attempted. FGAs and FTAs are treated as negative because they use up a team's limited number of possessions.

So, without further adieu, here is Kobe's PER from the 2008-2009 season, broken down by individual component.

Player	3 pt	Assist	FG	FT	TO	FGA	FTA	DRB	ORB	STL	BLK	PF	PER
Kobe Bryant	2.01	4.53	22.55	7.43	-3.77	-11.99	-0.54	1.63	1.18	2.15	0.49	-1.16	24.50

A couple of quick notes regarding this calculation. I was unable to get any closer to Kobe's actual PER (24.46) than this. Please forgive and accept the relatively small margin of error. If you don't trust me, by all means break out your graphing calculator and add up all the factors. Or you could just trust that the numbers are real.

With that out of the way, lets take a look and find out what we see. Assists are good for roughly 20% of the overall number. 3 pointers and field goals (basically, shots from the field) account for roughly 12.5 points, or just about half of the overall score (I'm combining the positive values for FG and the negative values for FGA, if you are following along at home). Free throws account for another 7 points, so total scoring is almost 80% of the overall score. Rebounding and defensive stats basically cancel out with turnovers and personal fouls.

So, the appropriate conclusions we can gather from this are: Kobe's defense and rebounding are about as valuable as his turnovers and fouls are detrimental. Kobe's assists are only 20% of his value as a player, and the rest of his value is determined by his ability to score. Kobe's ability to get to the free throw line is worth almost as much as his ability to score from the field. Whether you agree with any of these statements is irrelevant, we're just trying to make sense of what PER is telling us about Kobe's value on the court.

If you've figured out that these numbers mean absolutely nothing unless compared to somebody else, you are 100% right. So tune in tomorrow, as I compare Kobe's individual PER components to some other players you might have heard of, and then try to bring it all together and make sense of it all. Until then, keep your feet on the ground and keep reaching for the stars.

Prayers For The Captain

Nestor — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 17:08:36 -0000

Barnes2JJ already fanshotted this which we promoted on the home page. Still this deserves another stand along post to ensure that Big Fella has the total attention and prayers from the entire Bruins Nation. If you haven't read by now, AP reported today Kareem is battling "a rare form of leukemia."

No need for us to get down. The early prognosis is encouraging and the Captain just like he has entire life is battling like a warrior (emphasis added):

A longtime student in martial arts, Abdul-Jabbar said he took the approach of a samurai -- to face death without fear.

"I had my face on," he said.

Instead, doctors told him CML was treatable with proper medication and monitoring.

Abdul-Jabbar is a special assistant with the Lakers and said he hasn't had to cut back his level of activity of coaching, change his regimen or adjust his diet. "I'm able to sneak out for Thai food," he said.

"There is hope. This condition can be treated. You can still live a productive, full life," he said. "I'm living proof I can make it."

And just like the Big Red, who made his retirement statement about everyone except for himself, the Big Fella is using this news to help everyone else:

"I've never been a person to share my private life. But I can help save lives," he said in a midtown Manhattan conference room. "It's incumbent on someone like me to talk about this."

I am guessing Coach cracked out a huge smile when he read those quotes.

Once again, the prayers of the entire blue and gold bleeding nation is with the Big Fella today.

GO BRUINS.

Lakers, Clippers: A Tale of One City

atthehive — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 09:55:56 -0000

A 28 points win a night after a 16 point loss. It was a pretty interesting Staples double dip for New Orleans, and we learned quite a few things. In no particular order, a double recap:

Emeka Okafor

It's tough to say he was bad. But he definitely wasn't good. Versus the Lakers, he put up a stat line of 10 pts (5-12), 14 rebounds, and a blocked shot. Versus the Clippers, he went for 2 points (1-2) and 6 rebounds. He played 26 and 25 minutes respectively on Monday and Tuesday. I'd argue that the Lakers' game was the poorer showing. Against the LAC, the Hornets' offense didn't really require him. As a result, Byron Scott drew up very few plays for him, certainly a wise move with the perimeter showing.

But against the Lakers, we finally saw some of the bad side of Emeka, some of the things that Charlotte fans have been complaining about for years. He had a couple cases of brick hands and missed at least four wide open layups. If this is going to be the season that he puts it all together- in the ilk of his first 6 games- then he'll need to have a short memory and forget this one fast. Not the best Los Angeles trip for the big guy- a poor showing one night, and then denied a chance to redeem himself the next.

JuJu, the Starter?

As much as we've bashed Byron over the last year, he has given Julian Wright a very fair shake this season. He's started him, he's drawn up plays for him, he's even defended him in the media after horrible games. For a long while, I hid behind the "Byron killed Julian's career by not playing him properly as a rookie/sophomore" argument. Now? I renounce it. Julian Wright is simply not very good at basketball right now.

He's struggled defensively, missing easy rotations. More annoyingly, he's just as tentative with his dribble now as he was his rookie season. Simply put, JuJu has not grown much over the last 2+ years. And the blame has gradually shifted from Byron Scott to Julian himself. It's absolutely the right call to bring him off the bench; nothing he's done warrants a starting role.

Peja, the Starter?

Stojakovic is showing that he's still got it. Of course, that was never really the question. The real issue was if Peja could sustain his health and shooting over the course of a full season, and that question won't be answered until, well, a full season is up. I don't see Peja as the long term answer at SF for that reason. I think we can really save him and his minutes off the bench. At this point though, who else can we plug in at SF? Posey? Songaila?

We're going to see some interesting lineup combos over the next few games. When the dust settles, I wouldn't argue if this was the final setup: Paul/Thornton/Posey/West/Okafor with Collison/Brown/Peja/Songaila/Hilton doing the bench work.

Rookies!

Neither Darren Dimes Collison nor Marcus Buckets Thornton played particularly well against the Clippers. What matters is they finally got off the bench, and they provided exactly the energy we all thought they would.

Thornton clearly has a sweet stroke. I'm impressed at how quickly he can release it, and how consistent it looks over defenders. He's clearly not gun shy either. I would like to see Byron commit regular minutes to him, and more importantly, draw up cutting plays for him. Thornton has the skill set to allow cuts of different sizes; he doesn't need to get all the way to the hoop since he can stop in the midrange area and pull up. At the beginning of the season, I felt a lot of the Jason Terry comparisons were cliche'd and obvious. The more I see Thornton, the way he moves, and the quick release on his shot, the more I like the comparison a lot. Of course, if Thornton plays even half as well as Terry- one of my favorite guys in the league- this year, it'll be well worth it.

As for Collison? He gets into the paint at will, that's for sure. As nifty as a couple of his up and under moves were, I foresee close range finishing as his biggest issue of the near future. In that vein, his scoring development should be similar to Chris Paul's. In the two games, Collison also showed great on the ball defense (well except against Baron Davis, which is excusable). If Collison can evolve into the full court press man that Jannero Pargo was, the Hornets' defense will be that much better. For now, he clearly has defensive fundamentals down pat, and far better than the majority of rookies. He moves laterally extremely well, and it's refreshing to see.

The Defense

Well, there's plenty of work to be done here. New Orleans has attempted a hybrid zone/man at various junctures, especially prominent in this LA back-to-back. In my mind, it's not a good idea. Zone is a very difficult defense to play, even with very good personnel and coaching. Can the Hornets pull it off? I wouldn't put it past them, but it would be tough to use it consistently.

Thus far, the rotations have been very poor all around. With the red hot Phoenix Suns on tap, we're going to need to figure out something, fast.

Ike Diogu and Sean Marks

This one perplexes me. In the very negative news department, it appears Diogu will be out at least a couple more weeks, with Rotoworld claiming his season could be in jeopardy. As a huge Diogu proponent over the offseason, that would be devestating news for me.

As for Sean Marks? He's apparently had a "sore neck" for approximately the last month. So either something is up and the team simply likes Hilton Armstrong over him or his neck is in very poor condition. Armstrong did have a strong showing against the Clippers, so I'd expect Marks' neck to be "sore" for at least a couple more games.

The Pick and Roll

I'm probably going to devote an entire post to this at some point, but for now, it's clear out dependence on the pick and roll has diminished drastically. Some see this as a negative, pointing out how many easy dunks we got with Chandler and Paul. I see it as a positive for sure. The 2008-2009 offense just became ridiculously over reliant on the P&R. It got to the point where our offense literally could not run anything else (the Christmas day Magic game was a prime example of this). This year, the pick and roll hasn't been run because Emeka isn't as good at it. But as a direct result, the offense has become far more varied. We saw maybe a dozen successful back cuts all of last year. In the LA series, I already saw a couple well executed ones by Bobby Brown, Devin Brown, and Peja.

The pick and roll will be something Paul and Emeka work on behind the scenes, I'm sure. The West/Paul pick and roll will still be run at similar levels. But while the P&R sorts itself out, the offense is becoming more diversified than it's been in years, and that's a very good thing in the long run.

Chris Paul

The man is simply brilliant. Leads the league in three point percentage, PER, true shooting percentage, eFG%, Win Shares, and is second in assist percentage. He absolutely toyed with Baron Davis last night; if Okafor and others had done a more competent job on Monday, he could have kept his team in the game a while longer. There's absolutely nothing Paul can't do right now- stretch the defense, pass, rebound, man defend, help defend, knock down fadeaways to beat the shot clock, drill threes... let everyone talk about Kobe and LeBron and Carmelo. We're watching the best player in the league on a nightly basis. Enjoy it.

The Debut of Laker Stats Orgy!

DexterFishmore — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 01:00:35 -0000

Last season during the playoffs, I ran a regular column here at SS&R titled Tempo-Free Boxscore Breakdown. In it I used a toolkit of unorthodox statistical measures to take apart the Lakers performance game by game. The idea was that by looking at game stats in a different light - in particular, by analyzing the numbers per individual team possession, rather than per game - we might learn things about how the Lakers play that you can't glean from the conventional newspaper box score.

TFBB is back this year, slightly reworked. It won't run for every game during the regular season, but we'll do one for each of the life-and-death contests (Boston, Cleveland, a couple other opponents) as well as weekly pieces looking at stat trends as they develop over the season. And don't worry: when we get to the playoffs, we'll resume our usual every-game dissection of the numbers. (I know you were worried!)

The other change is the name. Tempo-Free Boxscore Breakdown, let's be honest, is the most boring name given to anything ever. I should know, I came up with it. Sorry to have inflicted it on you last spring. To inject some much-needed heat and passion, I've renamed the column Laker Stats Orgy. It's shorter and punchier and I hope will trick search-engine users who type in the word "orgy."

I can tell you're excited, so let's throw some plastic over the furniture and get going. Bow chicka bow-wow.

For Issue #01 of LSO, I'm not going to look at any numbers from the season so far. We're only seven games in, which is an awfully small sample size. There's not much point in trying to extract meaning. Instead, I'm going to begin at the beginning, introducing the basic terminology. What follow are the definitions of the measures that we use, a brief explanation of why we use them and, for context, how the Lakers performed in each one last season.

There's nothing here that we invented ourselves, and it's not nearly as math-intensive as it might look. I suck at math and still do this stuff, so clearly anyone can.

Possessions: The possession is the basic unit of currency here. A possession begins when a team gets control of the ball and ends when the other team takes over control. A possession can end with a made shot or free throw, a turnover or the end of a period. If a team misses a shot, gets the rebound, misses again, gets the rebound again and finally makes a field goal, that's still all one possession.

Given how basketball works - teams alternate possession, back and forth, until time runs out - a team and its opponent will always have an equal or nearly equal number of possessions in a game. Barring overtime, one team can never finish a game with more than two possessions more than its opponent, and that only occurs if one team has the final possession in all four quarters.

The idea behind counting possessions is to separate performance from pace. Some teams (for instance, the Knicks) play much faster than others (for instance, the Cavaliers). Their up-and-down style inflates the number of points they both score and allow in each game. Looking only at per-game stats thus distorts a team's underlying efficiency on both offense and defense.

Pace: This means the average number of possessions a team and its opponents get per 48 minutes of play. Last season the league-average pace was between 90 and 91. The 2008-09 Lakers had a pace of 93.0, which was the sixth highest in the NBA.

Looking at a typical box score, you can estimate the number of possessions in a game with the following formula:

0.96 x (FGA + (0.44 x FTA)) - Offensive Rebounds + Turnovers)

This will usually get you within one or two possessions of the exact number. Because we at SS&R are committed to the highest standards of customer service, however, for Laker games I tally up possessions one by one the hard way. Yes, I am a hero. It's true.

Points Per Possession (PPP): Just what it sounds like, the number of points (scored or allowed) divided by the number of possessions used. An average possession in the NBA last year resulted in 1.10 points scored. The 2008-09 Lakers scored 1.145 points per possession (third best in the NBA) and allowed 1.061 points per possession (fifth best in the NBA).

Offensive Rating: Points scored per 100 possessions. Just take your offensive PPP and multiply it by 100.

I prefer PPP to Offensive Rating because the former is less jargony and more straightforward about what it describes, but I'm in the minority about this. Those who prefer Offensive Rating like that it gets us out of the realm of really small numbers and that 100 possessions is in the neighborhood of what you see in a typical NBA game. Because the hoops analyst community generally uses Offensive Rating instead of PPP, we use it occasion too, but in any event the two terms are describing the same thing.

Defensive Rating: Points allowed per 100 possessions.

Turnover Rate: The portion of a team's offensive possessions that end in a turnover. About 16% of possessions end in turnovers in the NBA. Last year the Lakers had an offensive turnover rate of 14.2%, good for fifth in the league, and their "defensive turnover rate" (or the turnover rate of their opponents) was 16.6%, good for sixth in the league.

FTA/FGA: The ratio of a team's free-throw attempts to its field-goal attempts. This measures a team's ability to draw fouls and get to the free-throw line and to prevent its opponent from doing the same. We use it instead of "free throw margin," which simply compares a team's raw free-throw attempts to those of its opponents, to remove the effects of pace and turnovers.

Pace is an issue that we've already covered: an up-and-down team will both accumulate and allow more free-throw attempts than it would otherwise. Turnovers have similar potential to distort. If one team has fewer free-throw attempts than its opponent, it could be simply because more of its possessions are ending in turnovers, before it can get a shot off. Thus we use FTA/FGA to zero in on what portion of a team's "looks at the basket" result in a trip to the charity stripe.

Last year the league-average FTA/FGA was 0.306. On offense the Lakers had a ratio of 0.230, ranking 20th in the NBA, and they allowed opponents a ratio of 0.213, sixth in the NBA.

FT%: This isn't an advanced metric. It's just free-throw percentage. I mention it here because at other sites you might sometimes see the ratio FTM/FGA (free throws made to field goals attempted) instead of FTA/FGA, discussed above. In my view, that conflates two separate skills: getting to the line and making free throws once you're there. Think of Shaq, a player great at drawing free throw attempts and terrible at converting them.

Last year the Lakers made 77.0% of their free throws, almost exactly league average. Laker opponents made only 75.3% of their free throws, second lowest rate in the NBA.

Effective Field-Goal Percentage (EFG): This is a mildly tweaked version of traditional field-goal percentage. It's calculated the same way but counts each three-pointer made as 1.5 field goals, to reflect its added value. In last night's game against the Hornets, for example, the Lakers shot 38 for 81 from the field, including 12 for 27 on three point attempts. Each of those 12 three pointers gets an extra 0.5 value, so to calculate the Lakers' EFG we just divide 44 (or 38 plus 6) by 81, to get 54%.

Last year the league-average EFG was almost exactly 50%. The Lakers' EFG was 51.3%, sixth highest in the NBA, and they allowed opponents to shoot an EFG of 49.0%, eighth lowest in the NBA.

True Shooting Percentage (TS%) is a bit more complicated, but only a bit. It's a measure of shooting efficiency that takes into account not only the added value of three-pointers but both free-throw attempts and makes. As Pro Basketball Prospectus puts it, "TS% can be thought of as what a player's field-goal percentage would be if they maintained the same level of efficiency while only shooting two-pointers." True Shooting blends three of the measures discussed above: Effective Field-Goal Percentage, FTA/FGA and free-throw shooting accuracy.

The formula for calculating TS% is points scored divided by two times "shooting possessions," which equal (FGA + (0.44 x FTA)). If you're wondering about the 0.44, and in particular why it's not 0.50, it's because not all trips to the free-throw line burn a possession. Some free throws come from "and 1s" and others from technical fouls. The 0.44 coefficient has been arrived at through trial and error as a sound way of estimating the number of possessions actually used by free-throw attempts.

The league last year had an average True Shooting Percentage of 54.4%. The Lakers' TS% was 55.7%, seventh best in the league, and they allowed opponents a TS% of 53.0%, sixth best in the league.

Offensive Rebounding Rate: The portion of a team's offensive rebounding opportunities (consisting of its missed FGAs and certain of its missed FTAs) that are actually collected as offensive rebounds.

Defensive Rebounding Rate has a corollary definition. It means the portion of a team's defensive rebounding opportunities that are actually collected as defensive rebounds.

Defensive rebounding is easier than offensive rebounding. On average, only about 27% of missed shots lead to offensive rebounds, so the standard rebounding stat, "rebounding margin," is distorted by shooting accuracy. Imagine, for example, a game in which the Lakers are ice cold from the field while their opponents are filling it up. The opponent is likely to collect rebounds in greater raw numbers simply because they have many more defensive rebounds to collect. It doesn't necessarily mean that the Lakers are doing a bad job of rebounding.

Accordingly, we break rebounding performance into offensive and defensive rates instead. Last year the Lakers had an offensive rebounding rate of 29%, good for third in the NBA, and a defensive rebounding rate of 73%, which ranked 19th.

And with that, the orgy is underway! If you're still reading, you should be either extremely proud of yourself or moderately ashamed, I can't decide which. I promise, in any case, that future editions of the LSO won't be quite this wonky. Just thought it would be useful to get this all in one place for everyone's present and future reference. Thanks for your patience, and for just being you.

Lakers win again playing short

C.A. Clark — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 16:00:49 -0000

More photos » by Francis Specker - AP

2 days ago: The injured Los Angeles Lakers' Paul Gasol, left, talks to teammate Ron Artest during an NBA basketball game against the New Orleans Hornets in Los Angeles on Sunday, Nov. 8, 2009. The Lakers won 104-88. (AP Photo/Francis Specker)

Browse more photos »

I've said it before but it bears repeating. More than a few NBA teams don't have one 7 footer to play with, and most have no more than one. So, for the Lakers to play again missing two 7 foot players in Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum should be considered a tough task akin to Boston playing a game without defense or Phoenix playing a game without quick shots. The Lakers are taller than your NBA team, and they use that height to beat you. And yet, the Lakers were forced once again to find another way to win, as Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol missed their 2nd consecutive game together (Pau has yet to play this young season). The result? Their 2nd consecutive annihilation of an opponent, this time the New Orleans Hornets, 104-88. Anybody telling you the last two Laker wins aren't impressive needs to check their bias or their ego at the door. The Lakers often beat people with superior height, because their normal starting unit is just so much taller than yours. To not be able to play that way, through injury, is to have your biggest advantage taken away from you, and most teams would not respond well to it. Through Kobe Bryant and some pleasantly surprising bench play, the Lakers have managed to look even better without Gasol and Bynum. And if Phil Jackson is to be believed, the Lakers playing short (handed) might be a thing of the past. All in all, not a bad night for Purple and Gold lovers.

Let's start, as this team does, with Kobe Bryant. His play in the first half of last night's game was as spectacular as I've ever seen him. Josh wrote about how wonderful Kobe has been playing, especially in the post. When I initially read the piece, I have to admit I was skeptical. Too small of a sample size, yes, but also the wrong sample size. "Of course Kobe is going to look to work teams in the post if nobody else is in there", I said. Well, last night's game converted me both to Josh's way of thinking, and to Kobe's. See, Kobe isn't interested in ceding the post to his taller compatriots. Turns out he likes it down there. And when it allows him to have lines like 10-16 for 26 pts in 19 minutes, as he did in the first half against the Hornets, who can blame him? I've seen Kobe play in the post before, I've seen him play well in the post before, but I've never before seen him be so automatic from the post that it forced the other team to completely change the way they play defense to avoid Kobe scoring 50. But the Hornets were forced to double team Kobe AS the ball was being floated down to him in the post. If they responded any less quickly, Kobe would already have a (made) shot going up before the double team could get there. Surprising absolutely no one, this extremely quick double team allowed Kobe to simply feed his 'mates for a ton of open shots in the 2nd half, and the Lakers won going away. If those double teams hadn't have come, Kobe would have scored 50, on 60% shooting, and the Lakers would have won going away. That's the conundrum that posting Kobe puts teams in, and its not a riddle that can be easily solved. Which is why, even when Bynum and Gasol come back, Kobe will still go down to the block a fair amount of the time. You don't stop using the goose that lays the biggest golden eggs, just because you've got other geese who lay golden eggs as well. What you do is have golden eggs. Kobe Bryant eats 6 golden eggs for breakfast, raw, just because he can.

But it's not just Kobe. The past two games have been great for Kobe, but they have also been great for a unit as much maligned in this space as Kobe has been lauded. I'm speaking of the bench, of course. So far this year, the bench has been this team's Achilles heel, except that it's been so bad that a heel isn't big enough of a weakness. The bench has been the team's Achilles right leg. Earlier this week, the Lakers beat the Thunder with 6 bench points. SIX!!! You could put the bench out there with blindfolds on and they should be able to get more than 6 points. It was truly a deplorable effort. But we're not talking about deplorable efforts today. We're talking about great efforts. We're talking about 46 points off the bench. We're talking about no starter playing more than 34 minutes, because the bench came in and pushed the lead even further. Thanks to the past two games, the Lakers bench has been upgraded back to being inconsistent. If it's tough to see inconsistent as a compliment, let me help you out. Inconsistent means capable of greatness, but failing to deliver it on a regular basis. Early last week, nobody thought the Lakers bench was even capable of getting through a game without soiling themselves. They were extremely consistent, consistently terrible. With a couple of very solid efforts under their belts (when the Lakers needed them most, I might add) the bench is back to being an inconsistent one, instead of just a shitty one.

And while we're handing out praise, specific mention needs to go to Shannon Brown and Luke Walton. While the game still actually mattered, both players were absolutely money. Shannon didn't score a point in the first half, but he ended up with 15, courtesy of some early run in the 3rd quarter because of foul trouble for Derek Fisher. Able to run with the starters, Brown simply made all the open shots that he found. And, with NO doing their massive double team thing, there were plenty of open shots. Walton was just as on target, making 4-7, and 3-5 from behind the arc. The percentages alone don't do Walton justice tonight, because he was hitting shots that he doesn't even normally take. Shots where his defender was like "Pshhh, you're Luke Walton, I'll give you that." The type of shots that Luke has to hit so that his man is forced to guard him closely enough for Luke to sneak by (For most players, it's blow by, but we know Luke better than that).

And he may not have actually been a member of the bench, pressed into starting service by the injuries to his 7 foot brethren, but DJ Mbenga has been awesome in the last two games. Many have remarked that the Lakers may actually be a better team with DJ out there because he plays defense like he's not going to get back into the game. That he does so because it's true is irrelevant. 4 blocks/game for the man in the middle in the last two, and tonight he sweetened that pot with a double double, 10 points and 12 boards.

Now the Lakers have 3 days off, and might come back from that rest period whole. If Gasol and Bynum return from their injuries to full active duty, and the bench actually keeps up their sterling play, we might actually see the "dominant" team that was expected at the beginning of the season. While it might be nice, what it definitely isn't is necessary. For all the Lakers struggles the past couple weeks, they sit with as good a record as anybody in the league, except those who have played more games. They've had to finagle their way to a couple of victories in less than stellar form, but all teams go through bouts of less than stellar form. The Lakers have already dealt with injuries galore, and responded the way they always seem to. With more victories.

Confirmed: Hornets Terrible

DexterFishmore — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 06:03:23 -0000

This one's for you, DJ!

View full size photo »

When Phil Jackson decides to retire as coach of the Los Angeles Lakers, someone, somewhere will float the idea that Byron Scott should get the gig. Whether emanating from those feeling nostalgic for the Showtime years or (much more likely) from his agent, Byron's name is sure to come up. And when it does, I want Jerry Buss and Mitch Kupchak to break out the tape from tonight's game.

The Lakers hammered Scott's New Orleans Hornets for a 104-88 victory whose outcome was assured two minutes into the third quarter. Looking even worse than their now 2-5 record, the Hornets were a toxic mess. Their offense couldn't manage even a point per possession against a Lakers team playing without Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol. Their defense allowed 1.17 points per possession even though the oft-maligned Laker reserves played 43% of the available minutes. At the end of the first and beginning of the second periods, Chris Paul moldered on the bench for over six minutes while the Lakers built a double-digit lead. And Scott insisted on playing guards Bobby Brown and Devin Brown, total zeroes who were completely overmatched in this game and probably shouldn't be in the league, ahead of demonstrably superior rookies Marcus Thornton and Darren Collison.

I'm not even a Hornets fan and I'm outraged by this. It's unacceptable that a magnificent talent like Paul has to spend the next three seasons with this turd of a team. I just hope Coach Byron Scott forever remains someone else's problem.

As for the Lake Show tonight, it was an awesome first half by Kobe Bryant, followed by a very solid mop-up performance from the bench. DJ Mbenga had a double-double [Ed.: mmm... double-double... I'll take two please], Shannon Brown tossed in 15 and Ron Artest and Lamar Odom both had strong overall stat lines in limited minutes.

More to come about this one in the morning. In the meantime, here's your box score, and the tempo-free numbers are below. The Lakers are 6-1.

	Poss.	TO%	FTA/ FGA	FT%	EFG%	TS%	Off Reb%	Def Reb%	PPP
L.A.	89	13	0.22	89	54	58	27	71	1.17
N.O.	90	14	0.27	83	41	46	29	73	0.98

P.S. - If you haven't done so, please also read commenter Justin N's Fanpost with his thoughts on the season so far, available here. It's good stuff and worth your time.

Lakers-Hornets Preview

DexterFishmore — Sun, 08 Nov 2009 20:00:35 -0000

Remember when the New Orleans Hornets were the next big thing? It wasn't that long ago, although to a Hornets fan it must seem like the Carter administration.

In the spring of 2008, the Hornets challenged the Los Angeles Lakers for best record in the Western Conference. They fell one game short of the conference's top seed, and then one game short of meeting the Lakers in the conference finals. With a seemingly young core of Chris Paul, Tyson Chandler, David West and Peja Stojakovic, the Hornets appeared on the verge of securing a more or less permanent seat on the NBA Security Council.

I say seemingly, though, because within that core group only Paul was really on the upswing of his career. And sure enough, last season involved some textbook-quality regression to the mean. Paul remained awesome, but West's play slipped a touch and Chandler and Peja missed substantial time with injuries. The Hornets tumbled to seventh in the conference and got roundhouse-kicked out of the first round by the Denver Nuggets.

On Sunday night they arrive at Staples with a 2-4 record and looking not terribly formidable. There's no more telling indicator of their decline than this: the Hornets are the only team in the NBA to have lost to the New York Knicks. And when someone's losing to the Knicks, I assume they're either butt-awful or point-shaving. The two aren't mutually exclusive, I suppose.

On the other hand, one of New Orleans' wins came against the Dallas team that blasted the Lakers, so they have that going for them. Let's go to the numbers, with the usual caveat about small, early-season sample sizes:

	Hornets	Lakers
Net Points Per Game	-6.3 (25th)	+3.5 (11th)
Pace	93.5 (22nd)	95.4 (15th)
Offensive Rating	105.2 (12th)	104.6 (14th)
Defensive Rating	109.9 (28th)	99.6 (9th)

(For those unfamiliar with the above terms, Pace means average number of possessions per 48 minutes. Offensive Rating is the number of points scored per 100 possessions. Defensive Rating is the number of points allowed per 100 possessions. League rankings are in parentheses.)

Like the Grizzlies team the Lakers just faced, the Hornets have been decent on offense and an utter catastrophe on defense. Their strength has been their shooting, or rather Chris Paul's shooting. He's been unreal in the first six games, making 62% of his two-point attempts, 72% of his three-point attempts and 87% of his free throws. Solve Paul, and you've solved the Hornets.

It would help if anyone had any clue how to do that. Paul is a point guard of surgical brilliance. With the ball in his hands, which is almost always, he goes wherever he wants to go, and he's a master when it comes to passing out of the pick-and-roll and drive-and-dish. Laker fans who watched the Houston game last week will recall how Aaron Brooks repeatedly sliced into the lane and found the Rocket big men for easy hoops. Well, Paul makes Aaron Brooks look like Smush Parker, and he makes Smush look like you and me.

Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol, who have the size to make Paul's forays into the paint less inviting, won't play tonight. DJ Mbenga has similar size and even better shot-blocking facility, but he'll need to play with discipline and stay out of foul trouble. The Lakers will also need some plan to slow Paul on the perimeter, before he gets a head of steam en route to the basket.

I'd argue that Derek Fisher hasn't been that bad on D this year. He got torched by Brooks, but I thought he did a respectable job guarding Russell Westbrook in Oklahoma City. That said, asking Fish to guard Paul has the potential to be a complete, NC 17-rated horror show. It thus wouldn't surprise me to see Kobe Bryant draw the assignment at times. New Orleans has the worst set of shooting guards in the league - according to our sister blog At The Hive, someone named Devin Brown will start at the 2 tonight - so Phil could easily dial up that defensive switch.

(Devin Brown, by the way, could be the worst player to start an NBA game this year. I do not exaggerate.)

The central problem for the Hornets is the gaping void of roster talent after Paul. David West and Emeka Okafor (the latter obtained in a trade that sent Chandler to Charlotte) are above average for their positions, but they're not quite All Star-caliber, and everyone else is either a has-been or never-gonna-be. Peja isn't anything like the threat he was during the LA-Sacramento holy wars. He can still hit threes but does nothing else on the court except be old.

Will the Lakers need another 40-point Kobe explosion to win this one? If the bench plays as well as it did against Memphis or nearly so, and if Ron Artest continues his stellar work on both ends of the floor, the answer is no. Even down Bynum and Gasol, the Lakers have enough talent and system to get to 6-1.

But if the reserves fumble around incompetently as they've been known to do from time to time, or if Paul runs wild for 40 minutes, things could definitely turn sour.

In conclusion, how cool is it that New Orleans has an actual place called the Voodoo Spiritual Temple? If I ever get married that's where it's going to be.