SB Nation - Memphis Grizzlies

You're Twenty Deep: Analyzing Sam Young

djturtleface — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 18:49:32 -0000

Sam Young has been drawing lots of fouls as a sixth man for the Memphis Grizzlies. (AP Photo/Mark Weber)

Sam Young, not unlike our last featured player DeMarre Carroll, was a feature scorer on his college team. Unlike DeMarre, however, Sam Young's Pittsburgh Panthers were a #1 seed and predicted by many, including myself, to win the NCAA Championships with Young typically bringing the bulk of their offense.

But Sam Young, somewhat ironically, fell into the second round due to the fact that he was a 4th year senior and a staggering 24 years old. 'A man among boys' is probably not a fair description of Young's college career, but it certainly comes to mind. Chris Weinke also comes to mind, and I don't think his record f most consecutive losses by a starting quarterback is a precedent to follow.

In fact by drafting Sam Young the Memphis Grizzlies actually slightly increased their team's average age, which sat somewhere around 23.5 years old. Yes, I'm serious, rookie is older than like half of the team.

So get over the jump to check how good ol' Sam Young working out for the Grizzlies.

While you, arguably, get less 'upside' out of drafting a 24 year old player (Note: Personally I believe this is absurd; many players break out or add significant facets to their games well after the age of 24. If there is any reason that Sam Young has limited upside, it's because he isn't particularly athletic.), that should be somewhat offset by the older player being more 'NBA-ready.'

And the Grizzlies need Sam Young to be plenty ready to ball, because in the post-Iverson era, and with Darrel Arthur's injury, Young is pretty much the Grizzlies only option at 6th man.

In another similarity to Carroll, Young was originally pitched as a tweener, though he was clearly either a shooting guard or small forward. But unlike Carroll, data on his play so far shows that Young hasn't really figured out either position just yet.

Sam Young has a much higher PER at small forward due to significantly higher efficiency, his eFG% is 8% better from the forward slot, and rebounding statistics. But his defensive efficiency while playing forward is an abysmal 106 points per 100 possessions. At shooting guard his defensive efficiency jumps to a much more reasonable 102 points per 100, but his shooting is terrible.

That defensive improvement at the shooting guard is pretty much the only reason that, statistically speaking, Sam Young is warranting much playing time at all. In all the minutes he's played compared to all the minutes he hasn't, the Grizzlies are about 2 points per 100 possessions better defensively. Compare that to a 3 points per 100 possessions decrease in offense, and Sam Youngs On/Off efficiency splits are only a -1.

A negative certainly doesn't sound like a good thing, but it's actually solid for a rookie drafted so late.

And Sam Young does seem to have some clear benefits for the Grizzlies. For instance the Grizzlies get significantly more free throw attempts while Young is on the floor because he attacks the rim with a lot of confidence. This has something to do with his replacing the jump-shooting O.J. Mayo, but it is a clear benefit. Also Sam Young is one of the only players on the Grizzlies who has a positive number for net turnovers per 48 minutes. This is mostly due to Sam turning the ball over far less than either the high-usage O.J. Mayo or Rudy Gay.

While Sam Young is definitely not a top-10 sixth man in the NBA at this point in his career, he is giving the Grizzlies some positives. The main problem for Sam is finding a way to play his game on offense while playing shooting guard, which I believe will be much easier for him than becoming a better defender at small forward.

Like other sixth men around the league, when Sam Young is hot, he has helped the Grizzlies. But he just doesn't heat up often enough to warrant that role at this point. I think it's fair to say that an upgrade at this position would certainly benefit Memphis this season, though despite his age, Sam Young is showing signs that he'll develop into a well-rounded contributor off the first seat on the bench.

IC Cold Links: Blazers, Pacers Prepare To Play Through Injury Setbacks

Tom Lewis — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 11:39:29 -0000

The Portland Trail Blazers arrive at the Fieldhouse tonight, sorting through their own injury woes, joining the Pacers in trying to figure out which combination of remaining healthy players gives them the best chance to win.

The Pacers of course, are without leading scorer Danny Granger and continue to play with Mike Dunleavy on a minutes limit as he returns from his prolonged injury-related absence. Within the past few days, the Blazers have lost Greg Oden for the season and utility wing, Rudy Fernandez for 4-6 weeks. So just what type of game we'll see tonight is anyone's guess, but I imagine the opportunity for playing time should have some reserves brining plenty of energy to the floor to take advantage of their chance to play.

After the jump, plenty of links on the topic including video reaction from Fieldhouse.

PACERS: Pacers-Blazers preview
Pacers' offense left with big hole
Mike Wells reports on the Pacers looking for offensive answers with Danny Granger and his 25 points per game on the shelf. Jim O'Brien wants to push the pace. "I don't think 97 points (a game) is going to make it with our basketball team," the Pacers coach said Tuesday. "It might work if we had a different group of players. We are individually not good enough to slow it down and play paint by numbers."
PACERS: Pacers Video on losing Danny Granger
PACERS: Pacers Video on Rush getting another chance to play
Pacers F Granger out at least 4 weeks
Cliff Brunt offers up his AP report on Granger's absence.
Pacers progress hinges on playoff pursuit carrying on minus Granger
Tony Mejia thinks the Pacers can still win enough games to remain in the playoff race, but some new faces will have to step up and play a larger role.
Game 23 Preview: Blazers vs. Pacers - Blazersedge
Dave is expecting all kinds of ugly at the Fieldhouse tonight with two teams trying to find their way amidst recent injury setbacks collide, or at least bump into each other.
UPDATE: Blazers' Rudy Fernandez out 4 to 6 weeks after back surgery
Jason Quick reports on the Blazers injury woes increasing with the loss of Rudy Fernandez.
Memo to Pritchard: No rash moves, please
Kerry Eggers is preaching patience for the Blazers, imploring the team not to trade their way out of the injuries issues that have them short-handed.
Conley's drive lifts Grizzlies over Cavs in OT
Michael Conley has always been one of my favorite local players who seemed to make the game simple for he and his teammates. His NBA career has been a struggle so far, so it was great to see him throw a little hesitation dribble at the Cavs defense before blowing by everyone for the game-winning layup last night.
Steve Nash Internet Day!
It's Steve Nash Internet Day, so check in early and often for more.

My Back Is A Wall: Grizzlies Thrill Big Crowd, Beat the Cavaliers

djturtleface — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 04:25:45 -0000

More photos » by Lance Murphey - AP

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The Memphis Grizzlies blew up in the second half, just outright hustling to this win against the Cavaliers. The bench might not have done much, but the entire starting lineup put in an incredible night's work.

O.J. Mayo kept the Grizzlies in it through the first half, Rudy Gay closed it out on both ends in the second half, but Zach Randolph was a fixture throughout. Randolph led the Grizzlies with 32 points, O.J. Mayo had 28 while dropping a mini-triple double with 5 boards and 5 dimes, too. Rudy Gay scored 21, but his biggest contributions were the 4 steals.

After a terrible 2nd quarter, the Grizzlies equalized it in the 3rd quarter with fantastic ball-denial defense. They duked it out in the 4th, tying the game up with a Rudy Gay drive right past LeBron James. In overtime O.J. Mayo hit a huge three pointer on a set play, and then Mike Conley sealed the win with a nice layup drive on another great, intuitive play-call by Lionel Hollins.

The Grizzlies got the win despite a huge night from LeBron, who scored 43 points and tallied 13 rebounds and 6 assists, and nice contributions from both Shaquille O'Neal and Mo Williams. The rest of the Cavaliers were quiet, though LeBron was

I'm going to get in an update on this later tonight, so be sure to get over the jump for the opinion section in a hot minute.

I grew up around Cleveland hating the Cavaliers and getting hated on constantly for being a Grizzlies fan, so I'm just soaking it all in right now. To see this young team that I backed hard all summer, despite some moves most pundits called questionable, fight for this win in front of a near capacity crowd just could not have felt better.

I'm just trying to put myself in the shoes of O.J. Mayo, who gets clutch-nasty all game, is willing to drop back and trust his teammates in the second half, and then comes on for a post-game interview responding, "Yes sir, Coach McHale." Wow, I had to slap myself to check if his attitude was for real.

Talk about a team that's actually working hard to get away from their dunk-silly, Allen Iverson signing, ball-hogging recent pass. Jamaal Tinsley, who's trying to play for redemption, looked happy to be on the bench, coaching his teammates into the right defensive scheme. This is a guy who the Pacers just paid millions and millions to get the hell out of the clubhouse.

Did I see Zach Randolph missing some wide open shooters? Yes. But I saw him make some smart exit passes out of the post as well, including an under-handed gem that got Hasheem Thabeet room for a nice flourish. Did Rudy Gay takes some selfish looking shots? Yes. But he took a hell of a lot less of them then LeBron.

This game might not have meant that much to the Cavaliers, and I'm not sure if it meant that much to the Grizzlies either. Why? Because it's becoming increasingly clear that the Grizzlies players already are trusting each other and playing hard for the win.

But to move back to myself, as well as every other Grizzlies fan I can hear the voice of around the world wide web, it meant a lot to us. Why? Because the Memphis Grizzlies are finally starting to prove to everyone else that they're coming together as a basketball team that demands respect.

Are NBA games fixed?...

Andrew Feinstein — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 07:24:05 -0000

Now that Tim Donaghy is talking, so are NBA fans worldwide. And the question on everyone's mind (except Lakers fans) is: are NBA games fixed? What if I told you: sort of, but the problems with NBA refereeing can go away with three simple solutions.

Watching disgraced former NBA referee Tim Donaghy's interview on "60 Minutes" last night, here are my reactions - as a fan of a small market team - to Donaghy's four most debated allegations. At the end I'll give my very simple solutions to solve the many problems - all legitimate whether you believe Donaghy's honesty or not - that Donaghy has brought to light...

Based on insider information, including referee crews, Donaghy could pick the winner 75-80% of the time.

This one I believe 100%. I've talked to a number of people affiliated with the league in the past who have told me that if they could bet on games (rightfully illegal if you work for or with the NBA), they'd be right over 75% of the time. Think about your own workplace for a moment. Think about all the secrets, off-the-record and under-the-radar information you know about everyone around you. Now transplant that to the NBA, and if you were a league employee of any sort (coach, player, trainer, ref, etc), you'd know all kinds of details that the average gambling fan would never know - ranging from personal problems with the players and coaches to ref biases to health issues unreported. It's the very definition of "insider training."

Certain referees have biases - good or bad - against certain players and coaches.

I was beside myself in shock to hear this one! (I'm being sarcastic in case you didn't pick up on that.) As my stepfather would proudly say: "No shit, Sherlock". I've often written on this blog that the fundamental problem with NBA refereeing is that they ref the player and not the play (borrowing that line from my Lakers fan cousin Paul). This has been going on since the NBA's infancy and will forever continue. This is also why I can't stand players who whine with officials because I believe it exacerbates the problem. At the end of the day, refs are human beings and if they're getting barked at constantly by the same player (read: Smith, J.R.) and perhaps in an inappropriate manner, the refs will inevitably - even if it's just subconscious - screw the player with bad calls.

Even though he bet on games that he was refereeing, Donaghy didn't let that influence how he called the game.

Even though the FBI claims that this statement holds up, I'm still not buying it. As part of their "Outside the Lines" piece on this whole Donaghy fiasco, ESPN's Scott Van Pelt probed Donaghy a bit further on this one but Donaghy is standing by his statement. I just can't imagine a degenerate gambler unable to resist blowing the whistle here or there to favor a bet he made, especially in garbage time.

The NBA has a star system and refs are told to call games a certain way to ensure big market teams led by big stars end up victorious.

There's no question that the overall NBA benefits from having its big market teams and big stars competing in June every summer. That said, I've never thought that the NBA can outright fix games through their officials but rather, can "nudge" outcomes in certain directions. I've also never bought that an edict comes from NBA commissioner David Stern's office to call games in one way or the other, but do think that it's implied as to how a game should be called among the refereeing fraternity. (If a memo was sent from NBA headquarters to officials to sway games in a specific direction, don't you think one would have leaked out by now? Just ask Tiger Woods how well secrecy via digital communication goes over in 2009.)

We've seen a "star system" time and time again since the NBA's inception (mostly benefiting the Lakers recently and Michael Jordan's Bulls in years past as current examples) and as a Nuggets fan, I've learned to live with it. I've always believed that when you're playing a team like the Lakers or the Celtics and it's in the NBA's best interest for them to win, it just means you - as the small market team - have to have a better game plan, play harder, avoid mistakes and keep your mouth shut with the refs. Make no mistake about it: the Nuggets didn't lose to the Lakers in the 2009 Western Conference Finals because of bad officiating. Bennett Salvatore didn't throw two errant inbounds passes for Denver or light up the Nuggets like Kobe Bryant did in the first half of Game 6 to seal the series for Los Angeles.

But what about the 2002 Sacramento Kings, you ask? The Kings didn't lose the 2002 WCF to the Lakers due to bad officiating either, but certainly lost one key game, Game 6, due to horrendous officiating that swayed the Lakers victory (I'm sorry Lakers fans, but the 15 foul shot disparity is too great to ignore). But whomever ref'd game Game 7 didn't miss the numerous free throws - 14 missed freebies in total on 53% FT shooting - that cost the Kings that series. Now Game 7 of the 2000 WCF with the Trail Blazers is a different story. That was a blatant example of the NBA aiding and abetting the Lakers to victory. The free throw disparity was Lakers 37, Blazers 16: an abomination that the NBA should forever be embarrassed about.

So if you're scoring at home, I'm buying about half of what Donaghy is saying...but already knew/assumed most of that stuff about NBA refereeing in the first place. Which brings up the main argument against Donaghy's accusations: that he's feeding into a preconceived stereotype about NBA refs that all NBA fans - sans myopic, moronic, rose-colored-glasses Lakers fans - already believed was true anyway. In other words, he's throwing fuel on an already simmering fire.

To top things off for Nuggets fans, several of our players - former and current - have been in the eye of this Donaghy storm. During the "60 Minutes" interview, they replayed a Nuggets/Jazz game from January 6th, 2007. A game in which Donaghy claims that the refs were essentially out to get Allen Iverson for having berated referee Steve Javie. Donaghy asserts that Iverson got hacked routinely and calls weren't made and that Iverson was called often for "palming" (i.e. traveling) more frequently than normal as retribution for Iverson's behavior towards Javie. Before you leap to conclusions, read CBSSports.com's Ken Berger column debunking Donaghy's claims about this game, citing that Iverson took more free throw attempts than any other player and was the victim of just one blatant non-call on Mehmet Okur.

The second Nugget whose name came up today was Chauncey Billups, whom Donaghy - in that "Outside the Lines" piece - claims is disliked by some officials. I'm not surprised, actually. Billups may be a great leader, great community member and great player (yes, yes and yes), but he's a whiner. And so is Carmelo Anthony, J.R. Smith, Kenyon Martin and before this season, you could throw Iverson, Marcus Camby, Dahntay Jones and Linas Kleiza onto the All-Whining Team, too. Maybe I watch the Nuggets too much to fairly compare their constant complaining against the complaining of other teams, but other than the Spurs and Kobe Bryant, are there bigger whiners with the refs in the NBA than our Nuggets? Hence why we haven't gotten a lot of favorable calls over the years, and I've mentioned this ad nauseum on this site in the past.

But back to the title of this column: Are NBA games fixed? Sort of, but not in a way that a good game plan can't overcome (Lakers/Blazers Game 7 is an extreme example that I've had trouble finding a duplicate of). If I thought NBA games were fixed or premeditated in any way, I wouldn't give the NBA a nickel of my money for tickets and merchandise, and certainly wouldn't spend the hours I devote to covering the Nuggets and the NBA with this site.

That said, Donaghy has a lot of valid points that must be addressed and I just so happen to have solutions to the three main problems that have made NBA refereeing a running joke as of late.

Solution #1: Referee "stats" must be made transparent and available

How is it that I know how many times Ty Lawson gets his shot blocked per game but don't know how many times Bennett Salvatore calls traveling per game? Or how many times Dick Bavetta calls offensive charges per game? Or how many times Bavetta calls offensive charges against the Nuggets specifically at Pepsi Center vs. on the road? Long ago suggested by Mavericks owner Mark Cuban and recently proposed by ESPN.com's Bill Simmons, we MUST have transparent statistics for referees. The NBA claims that it keeps detailed records to review their refs. If this is true, where are these records and why aren't they online for everyone to see? Moreover, I suspect many NBA teams (hopefully including the Nuggets) keep their own internal "ref stats" so they can make the necessary adjustments when facing a Salvatore vs. a Bavetta vs. a Javie, etc. Make these stats public already, dammit!

Solution #2: Disallow players from talking to officials

I hate to legislate emotion out of the game like the NFL does, but if you want to know where referee bias comes from, it comes from interacting with the players too much. Players like Chauncey and Kobe may be perpetual whiners, but there's a method to their madness: they figure that by annoying the shit out of an official for three-and-a-half quarters, they'll get a call their way (or in Kobe's case, multiple calls) when the game is on the line in the fourth quarter. I'm not sure how the NBA would institute this and it would take a while to adjust to it, but if you made barking at officials an automatic technical foul and eliminated the ref/player relationship altogether, we might finally see refs call the plays and not the players anymore. (But don't take my word for it, watch George Karl and former NBA referees tell you themselves in this ESPN "Outside the Lines" piece that aired when the Donaghy story broke last year. Kudos to Denver Stiffs reader Big Mickey D for hunting this down!)

Solution #3: Add more referees and rotate them more sporadically

I was in the minority of NBA fans who wanted to see the replacement refs. In agreement with Simmons, I've long believed that NBA refs are too old, too short and (now clearly) too biased to fairly officiate games. Putting Donaghy's allegations aside, do you really think Dick Bavetta can call an honest game anymore? He's been around way too long. But assuming the NBA isn't going to pull a "Logan's Run" on aging officials, let's at least add more young, tall, and preferably former players to the referee ranks and have more referee crews. This way, the Bavettas and the Salvatores ref specific teams less than they do now, disabling whatever bias they have from eating away at a chunk of a team's season. (Remember when Dan Issel coached the Nuggets and Javie refereed our games it was all but assumed to be a loss? Come to think of it, whenever Issel coached a game during his second stint with the Nuggets we should have assumed the loss.)

As bad as the Donaghy story may be for the integrity of the NBA, I believe in the long run it could be the wake up call the NBA desperately needed. But don't forget the power and the voice that we have as fans because remember, we're taxpayers. When you buy that NBA ticket, NBA league pass, Nuggets workout pants (like I bought today during NBA.com's 20% off men's apparel sale), bobble head dolls, jerseys and so forth, it gives you the right as a taxpayer to voice your opinion when those who collect our hard-earned money (from David Stern to Dick Bavetta) aren't being transparent and earnest with us. All we as fans ask for is a fair fight and the least the NBA can do is prove that it's always a fair fight....even if the Lakers have appeared in half the NBA Finals ever played (I'm just saying).

The NBA should listen to what Donaghy is saying, listen to us and change their ways. It will only make the product we already love much more believable and transparent. Why is that a bad thing?

(I'll be printing this email and mailing it in letter form to David Stern's office tomorrow.)

Photo courtesy of NBAE via Getty Images

You're Twenty Deep: Analyzing DeMarre Carroll

djturtleface — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 17:08:58 -0000

More photos » by Matt York - AP

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DeMarre Carroll was a player in college at Mizzou. He was a legitimate college franchise guy; they built a team around him and he carried them into the tourney.

Nobody expected that kind of play out of him in Memphis, or anywhere in the NBA for that matter. DeMarre is a perfect example of the college tweener. He plays and works his ass off to make the best use of relatively limited natural abilities, but hard work isn't enough to make you a star in the NBA.

Even a guy like Gerald Wallace, who is admittedly limited in the more skill-centric facets of the game, has to go harder than anyone else in the league to make his incredible natural abilities work like they should. DeMarre Carroll has nowhere near the physical abilities of Wallace, but the working-man spirit is the same.

Now if you're going to evaluate a hustle player, where do you look? Rebounds and steals are traditionally known as "hustle stats." I personally don't believe that for a second, Carlos Boozer grabs mad boards but he's not exactly know for his dedication to the game. And steals are a tough read on this Grizzlies team; because the overall defense is tremendously poor, there are less tipped passes out there to get down and dirty chasing.

Still lets take a brief look at turnovers. It's alright to be fearful of small sample size, I suppose, but with DeMarre on the court the Grizzlies draw just as many turnovers as they do without him on the court. This probably means that Carroll is forcing some extra turnovers while replacing Zach Randolph, while being a little less disruptive on defense than Rudy Gay.

This point brings us rather quickly into the fact that DeMarre is being played out of position when filling in for Rudy. DeMarre cannot play small forward, he is only suitable as a power forward. Using 82games.com again today, it becomes obvious pretty quickly that Carroll is pretty horrendous at the small forward spot, with a PER of only .6 while playing almost 40% of his minutes there.

And that revelation makes DeMarre Carroll's role with the team going forward a little bit ambiguous. Darrell Arthur is a better NBA player than Carroll, and should be the Grizzlies backup power forward. That means Carroll's minutes are going to dry up in a month or two, unless the Grizzlies want to suffer him trying to figure out how to play tons of extremely inefficient minutes while out of position.

Moving back to his time so far, DeMarre has been a more than adequate sub. Data shows that the Grizzlies only play about 2 points per 100 possessions worse with him in, which isn't bad for a rookie substitute and a second rounder in most drafts. But would I rather have DeJuan Blair? Yes.

That's not to say DeMarre isn't putting in his work. To move away from the statistics, it's clear that he's giving it all out there. He brings lots of energy, but doesn't have the skill yet to become an impact player. Other teams happily allow the Grizzlies to run catch-and-shoot plays for him, and his driving layup is ugly, though he's willing to jump into a brick wall if it means getting to the line.

Twenty games in, DeMarre Carroll has given the Memphis Grizzlies everything they could have expected. He hasn't impressed, but he hasn't underwhelmed either. Carroll gets in, plays hard enough to make up for most of the skill gap, and happily takes the bruises that come with being the working-man.

Allen Iverson: The difference maker

jsams — Sun, 06 Dec 2009 22:34:29 -0000

More photos » by Michael Perez - AP

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Updated [7:48]: I originally excluded 9 games that AI missed with injury in 06-07. Mistake has been corrected.

I know a lot of Sixers fans believe Allen Iverson is the savior. They have a false hope that a 34-year old Iverson will come in, fix the defense, fix the rebounding, and fix the coach. I've seen arguments for Iverson, and I've seen arguments against Iverson, but this should give you a definitive answer on whether he'll fix the Sixers.

I could sit here and write why Iverson won't fix the team until I'm blue in the face. Instead I'll give you one stat -- the only stat that matters -- wins and losses.

In the past four seasons, here is the record of the Sixers, Nuggets, Pistons and Grizzlies when Iverson plays.

107-109

Here is the record of those same teams without Iverson:

135-108

Correction: (The 06-07 Nuggets went 5-4 when Iverson was injured changing the "record without" from 130-104 to 135-108.)

If that doesn't convince you, I don't know what will. Four different seasons, four different teams, four different coaches, four different systems. Iverson has been detrimental to them all.

You're Twenty Deep: Analyzing Marcus Williams

djturtleface — Sun, 06 Dec 2009 21:15:25 -0000

More photos » by Sam Forencich - NBAE/Getty Images

Lets take a look at the new kids on the block.

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So the next game against Cleveland might be on NBATV, but its like 25 days away, so I got to thinking that maybe now would be a good time to fit in some of that analysis everybody likes so much.

I came up with this nice little gimmick. Let's check in with all the Grizzlies new players this season, I'm talking about the ones that managed to stay in Memphis for more than three games, and see how they're adjusting.

The order is going to be Marcus Williams, DeMarre Carroll, Sam Young, Hasheem Thabeet, and Zach Randolph. I think this is probably in order of preseason buzz. Maybe I'll include Marc Gasol too, since he's basically a brand new freaking person after losing 150 lbs., mostly hair, in the offseason.

Anyhow, without further ado, here's how Marcus "Who's Laptop" Williams has performed this year -- advanced stats included!

Marcus, you're not Kenny Rogers, you can't gamble every possession.

I'm not sure I've ever seen Marcus Williams pickpocket another point at the top of the key. That means he's probably close to 0 out of 1189, because the dude has no concept of defense. If he was balling in Rucker, alright maybe, but this is the NBA Slick Willy, you got to respect the handles.

Outside of that little frustration -- and by little frustration, I mean frustration big enough to get banished to riding the thinnest pine in the Association -- Williams has done his part. He has proved that he can pass when he's looking to pass, and he has proved he can score when he's looking to score.

Problem here is that you can always tell what he wants to do. It's so obvious. Maybe it's something about how he dribbles or something, but I can tell if he's looking to get his own shot or pass basically every time he touches the ball. I'm pretty sure the defense can tell too, and predictability isn't quite as desirable as consistency, which is another trait that Williams doesn't have.

According to 82games.com, 35% of Marcus Williams's shots come with the 0-10 seconds off the shot clock. On these quick shots he is shooting a blistering 39.3% effective field goal percentage. That's terrible, and while I'm not ready to do background research, I'm going to say that forcing low-percentage shots early in the clock isn't a desirable quality in a point guard.

And yet somehow Marcus Williams is managing to make his Grizzlies teammates one hell of a lot better. Again from 82games.com, all but two of the top ten (top ten not in terms of performance, but minutes played) 5-man units that include Marcus Williams have positive plus-minuses.

Again it doesn't make much sense how Marcus Williams could possibly help the team this much, because when you look at the Grizzlies's offensive, defensive efficiency splits with Marcus Williams on and off the court, they're not exactly fantastic. When Williams is in the Grizzlies score almost 7 points less per 100 possessions, which is a huge difference, though they do make up for that by giving up about 2 point less per 100 possessions.

Why? Probably because the Grizzlies shoot 2% worse with Marcus Williams in despite having far more assists, but mostly because they average a staggering -4 in turnover differential per 48 minutes. Basically, with Marcus Williams in instead of Mike Conley and, to a lesser extent Jamaal Tinsley, the Grizzlies turn the ball over 2 times extra and get 2 less turnovers. So much for all that gambling.

So somehow in 20 games Marcus Williams has managed to play pretty horribly by nearly every personal metric, yet the units he has played in appear to be winners. Does it make any sense? No, it doesn't.

But neither does trying to steal the ball at half-court every play, does it?

Turtle Time: Memphis Grizzlies upset Dallas Mavericks 98-82

djturtleface — Sat, 05 Dec 2009 18:26:53 -0000

More photos » by Nikki Boertman - AP

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It seems like I can't remember the last time I knew the Grizzlies were moving in the right direction. As I'm watching this game on League Pass, I can tell that the Memphis Grizzlies are starting to do something right.

The Mavericks played the Grizzlies hard during the first, and it actually looked like they outplayed them by a solid margin -- watching Rodrigue Beaubois, who I really like, dominate Mike Conley didn't help that.

But over time the Grizzlies began to adjust on defense. They started tipping passes. They began trying harder to exploit their advantages on the boards. They threw multiple looks at Dirk Nowitzki, which clearly frustrated him, and were smart enough to exploit Jason Kidd by matching him up against O.J. Mayo.

And Mayo killed the old man. He went 10-16 for 25 points, tipping and stealing several slow passes on the other end. Zach Randolph also played well and hard. Rudy Gay didn't stun anyone with his stat line, but had a team best +17 and was covering up whatever Maverick he was facing.

The bench gang were the real heroes though. Nobody's stats popped off the page, but Thabeet, Tinsley, Carroll, and Young all got into the game and logged meaningful minutes. Their play got the Grizzlies ahead in the second and helped them resolutely seal it off, something the young Grizz have trouble with in past wins.

The Grizzlies fired on all cylinders tonight, but it didn't feel lucky. Fans were in the Forum and these kids put on a show for them; how couldn't you feel good about that?

Rockness Monster: O.J. Mayo proved that as much as we like advanced statistics and should value other contribution, sometimes points are still king.

U-Turn: The Grizzlies three-point shooting tonight was spectacular, and it's something Memphis has really missed. Check out this chart by Ziller over at FanHouse; the Grizzlies shoot the three pretty inefficiently and also the least in the league. That's dangerous for a high-scoring, offensively-geared team. O.J. probably should shoot more, and so should Mike Conley once he finds his stroke.

Bitter Limon: Point guard is pretty much still a hole for this team. I know Mike Conley played the hero with 20 points in the win against Minnesota, but his defense is abysmal and he scored that many by forgetting about facilitating and only really pushing his offense. It worked that night, but it doesn't on most.

Saturday Roundup

Wes Cox — Sat, 05 Dec 2009 17:22:16 -0000

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Dallas Mavericks misfire on the road with 98-82 loss to Grizzlies | DMN
"We shot no free throws in the second half, which meant that we basically became a jump-shooting team and a passive team offensively," Mavericks coach Rick Carlisle said. "You're not going to win on the road in this league playing like that. We have to play with a lot more force." Zero free throws. That's what happens when you fall back to old, bad habits, like 18 3-pointers after halftime and plenty of other low-yield shots that contributed to a season-low 35.2 percent shooting.

Scatterhooping: Memphis 98, Dallas 82 | Jeff Wade - ESPN Dallas
The Grizz only shot 6 free throws in the second half, but it didn’t matter because their shots weren’t that hotly contested. In a game where nobody was really too committed to guarding anyone, the Grizz made their shots and Dallas didn't.

Grizzlies 98, Mavs 82: Dallas Throws In The Towel | Mike Fisher - DB.com
Every time the Mavs called a timeout, it seemed, Dirk Nowitzki stormed to the bench to abuse whatever stood in his way. He angrily threw a towel. He slapped a folding chair and sent it crashing to the floor. Overall, the Mavs were never a threat to the building Grizzlies, losing at Memphis 98-82 on Friday. But the Mavs were undefeated against inanimate objects.

Going long distance gives Dallas Mavericks no shot | Eddie Sefko - DMN
The Mavericks have averaged 18 3-point attempts per game. That's a sensible number. They had 29 on Friday, most of them before garbage time began

Game Recap: Mavs Ineffective in 98-82 Loss to the Grizzlies

zdgmans — Sat, 05 Dec 2009 04:25:49 -0000

More photos » by Nikki Boertman - AP

5 days ago: Dallas Mavericks guard Jason Kidd, left, works against Memphis Grizzlies guard O.J. Mayo in the first half of an NBA basketball game Friday, Dec. 4, 2009, in Memphis, Tenn. (AP Photo/Nikki Boertman)

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Well, this is definitely not the post I imagined myself writing when I was asked to do the Game Recaps here at Mavs Moneyball. I will save the introductions for happier times (anyway you didn't come here to read about who I am, you came to find out what the heck happened with the Mavericks) but for the time being I will be following up every Mavericks game with a succinct recap. If you have a suggestion or want to see something I am not covering, let me know and I will make sure to grab it in the next recap.

Now, without further delay (still trying to figure out what happened in Memphis)...

Game as a Whole:

From the opening tip to the last shot of the fourth quarter, it didn't quite feel like the Mavericks showed up to play. Sure, Dirk had a really poor shooting night (7 of 22 for 16 points) but a good team should be able to overcome their star player having an off night every once in a while. Unfortunately, everybody on the team seemed content to follow Dirk's lead by chucking up contested shots and generally looking out of sync on the offensive end.

Give Rick Carlisle credit here as he tried a bunch of different things, giving Rodrigue Beaubois some extended burn this game (second most minutes he has played besides the Bucks), keeping his starters on the floor for major minutes, but in the end it felt like the Mavericks were doomed to lose this game as soon as the Grizzlies started having a career night from the 3 point line. For as much as was said about the Mavericks focusing on defense during training camp, it definitely seems like they are a long way off from having anything resembling a championship calibre defense.

By the Quarters:

1st Quarter:

Both teams come out like they don't know how to play defense. Shots are being thrown up on both sides with abandon and it feels like the game is going to be played at a pretty up-tempo pace.
O.J. Mayo starts out on fire. Definitely thought Jason Kidd should have been on Mike Conley and Rodrigue Beaubois should have been guarding Mayo.
It's a shoot out as both teams are over 50% from the floor.

2nd Quarter:

JJ Barea comes in and immediately gets a turnover (not what Jason Kidd wants to see when going to the bench).
Kris Humphries gets a full extension block on Sam Young who gathers the missed shot only to have it be denied by... the rim. When all else fails, the rim is a great help defender.
The last portion of the quarter sees Jason Terry trying to force the issue by taking the ball to the rim before seeing him settle into taking corner 3's.

3rd Quarter:

Beaubois proves to Memphis that he is a rookie by rushing two 3 point shots on consecutive possessions. The Mavericks should have been taking it to the rim.
Frustration sets in as all of the Mavericks start rushing shots. The offense looks disorganized and you can see that the guys are really having to work hard for even a glimpse at the basket.
Jason Terry makes a timely three close to the end of the quarter to make the game feel like it's close (notice I said "feel").

4th Quarter:

Grizzlies can't score in the first three minutes but the Mavericks don't take advantage. JJ Barrea ends up with another really bad turnover while trying to thread the needle to Drew Gooden under the basket.
Terry to this point has had the only consistent game. He finished with 18 points.
At 2:39 the game is over for the Mavericks as Rick Carlisle pulls all of his starters (except Beaubois) off the floor.

Closing Thoughts:

This is one I am sure that every Mavericks fan would have easily circled as a win on the schedule but no matter how bad a team is (hey the New Jersey Nets got their first win tonight!) you still have to show up and put the effort in to get the win. As Dirk goes, so do the Mavs; without Dirk putting up his usual numbers the team looked completely lost. Let's hope that we don't see another performance like this out of the Mavericks for a long time to come.

Some Choice Statistics:

Looking at the +/-, almost every Maverick was in the negative on the floor while almost all of the Grizzlies had positive nights.
Dirk Nowitzki has his streak of 14 straight games with 20 points or more snapped.
Hasheem Thabeet a 30% Free Throw shooter is fouled on his first shot attempt and makes both free throws (this is when you know you are having a bad game).
Dallas has the 4th best scoring bench in the country.
The Grizzlies shoot 52.9% from three even though they are not known as a three point shooting team (thanks in large part to O.J. Mayo's ridiculous night from behind the arc).
Mavericks shoot 0 foul shots in the second half.