SB Nation - New York Knicks

LateCap - Utah Jazz @ Ny Knicks - W - 95 - 93

Basketball John — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 00:02:21 -0000

Man, he's rippped.

Worst win ever?

I shouldn't complain about wins, especially a road win in NY where we haven't won in 5 years. But when you have a 21-point lead against a team that will be scraping the bottom of the league all season, you have to put that away.

The Jazz were held to 95 points against one of the worst defensive teams in the league. On the positive side, you could say they held an opponent to a season-low 93 points, but 62 of those came in the second half.

After going 0-fer in the first half from the arc, you knew they Knicks were going to come out make some in the second half. They did, going 8/19 though it felt like 15/19.

Still, after giving up 33 points in the third, the Jazz still had a 14-point lead heading into the fourth. This looked all too familiar. They were actually holding off the Knicks for the better part of the fourth until one point where I thought there should have been a timeout taken. Sound familiar?

Ronnie B had just made a jumper with a little under 8 minutes to go that gave the Jazz and 84-73 lead. 11 points was pretty good considering the Knicks had somehow got in a groove in the third and having it carry over to start the fourth.

The next possession had Al Harrington make a three-pointer to cut the lead to 8. Not a huge deal, but it was fine to see how the Jazz would respond in that case.

Deron ended up driving and missing a layup with 17 seconds left on the shot clock. The ensuing Knicks possession ended with a Gallinari three from the top of the arc. Bam, 5 point lead.

That's where the timeout should have been called. Sloan's reasoning for not calling timeouts in those situations is that he's not going to call a different play with a timeout, so let's just let them run the play. But what it does do is slow down or stop the momentum and allows your team to re-group. Instead, the Knicks score the next 4 points to get within 1 when Sloan finally calls a timeout.

Too late.

Here are my notes for the Jazz possessions over about this same time period until the end of the game. The first number is how many seconds were left on the shot clock when the Jazz shot. The shots that come with 10-14 seconds on the clock were good. Those that were earlier or later were missed.

14 - d-will running jumper
00 - shot clock violation
10 - brewer made jumper
17 - deron missed layup
16 - millsap - missed drive and jumper
02 - ak three, offen rebound
18 - brewer TO
12 - memo make
10 - boozer make, ak assist
17 - booze fouled down low
07 - booze to on pass
05 - deron TO, stolen
12 - jumper by brewer
19 - offensive fould on williams, jeffries way late getting there.
21 - deron steal and pass to booze, got fouled, booze 1-2
06 - memo missed long jumper
08 - missed deron jumper
24 - memo follow - 1:12
04 - ak missed three - 39.4 left
05 - brewer missed jumper, 10.6 remaining

The Jazz took a lot of shots way early in the shot clock. This wasn't just a fourth-quarter occurrence. I think that was the primary reason why the Knicks were able to come back in the third and the fourth.

What could have been the biggest mistake late is when Ronnie B took the final jumper with 5 seconds left on the shot clock when he could have taken off a few more. A rushed shot with a second left probably wouldn't have been much better, but he had time to try to drive and/or make an extra pass.

Maybe not making an extra pass was for the better as the Jazz passed terribly against the Knicks' zone defense. They had 6 TOs in the fourth quarter alone. It was funny to see NY open the fourth with a man-to-man and then after just one possession where the Jazz got an offensive board, they went right back to the zone. They were in it for almost the entire game. From what I saw, they had 4 guys in the paint at once for the majority of the game. They were daring the Jazz to shoot just like Kobe has dared Ronnie B to shoot the past couple of years. With Korver and CJ out, there's not even that perceived threat of a shooter.

AK though was and has been the most consistent three-point shooter on the team this season. He was on again last night going 5/8 from downtown while finishing with 23 X 6 X 6. Great line from AK and playing like a man that has nothing to lose. You can tell that he doesn't have any pressure at all. He's pretty confident in his shot right now.

Another reason the Knicks came back of course was the defense of the Jazz. The biggest culprits seemed to be Mehmet Okur and Carlos Boozer. Memo was on Al Harrington and Al would just go right by him. That's a terrible mismatch for him. But he burned Boozer too. David Lee was burning Boozer as well. In fact, had the Knicks been able to make a couple of those threes in the first half, this game probably would have ended a lot differently. Not good.

The other biggest problems I saw with both of them was that they didn't down Toney Douglas coming off the pick and roll at all. Memo usually sagged while Boozer would put out one arm to make it look like he was doing something. Douglas got into the lane at will and had most any shot he wanted. And though he's just a rookie, Douglas already had his career-high of 21 against the Jazz. As it turned out, he fell right into the over-confidence trap that the Jazz laid out for him. He ended up taking the last shot and missed a game-tying jumper. All according to plan.

Actually, Deron played good D on him and didn't go for the pump-fakes. As a result, Douglas had to put up a jacknifed-leapin'-leaner that clanged off the back of the basket as time ran out.

Ball-game. Sort of.

If the Jazz play twice this good against Boston tomorrow night, they'll be resting the starters in the fourth quarter.

Some Individual Accolades

Andrei Kirilenko.had 23 points the last time the Jazz won in NY as well. He turned in a 23 & 6 & 6 performance with almost all of those assists going to Carlos Boozer. AK could probably be co-MVP of the team at this point in the season.

Memo had a quite 18 & 12 on 7/15 shooting. His biggest shot came as a putback of Deron's missed jumper late in the game. That broke a 93-93 tie with a little over a minute left. But please Memo, for all that is holy, could you please practice taking a step back before shooting a three? He has to leave at least 2 points a night on the floor because of that toe on the line. Either that or get a Tom Dempsey shoe:

Deron had a rough game shooting-wise and had 7 turnovers. Nasty stuff. However, he did have a season-high 16 assists. He probably could have had 3-4 more but the receiver couldn't finish at the basket or got fouled hard. One of those was after a steal and dish to Boozer. Booze tried to put it down with two hands but got fouled.

That got me thinking, the only hammer dunk I remember from Boozer came in last year's playoff game against the Lakers at the end where he drove left on Gasol and finished with his left hand. He could be a ferocious dunker/finisher but chooses to go the non-contact route.

I was ready to give Boozer some praise when he had several deflections and hustle point in the first half but he reverted back to having some big turnovers and stupid fouls. Still, he had 23 & 14 and finished +1 for the game. When do you sell on Boozer? Is he going to come crashing back down? I few more games of 20 & 12 and it might be a good time to sell.

Nobody else really stood out either way. Ronnie B did have a couple of big jumpers in the fourth before his last one. Wes Matthews was decent but had a couple of circus-shot attempts that could have been more under control. And Millsap's performance was forgettable.

So does that sound like we won or lost? We won of course and that's all that matters for now. I couldn't imagine what things would have been like had the Jazz lost another one like that. There seriously could have been a couple of jumpers in the SLC and maybe Sloan in NY.

So we'll hope that the Jazz play up to their opponent when they take on the Celtics tomorrow night in the Garden.

Other notes

Posting and Toasting
Cowhide Globe
TBJ
Living and Dying (Mostly dying right now)
CJ Miles
No tweets from D-Will?
Knicks had a lot of rim-outs and missed layups. This game could have been a lot uglier.
We Matthews has the Giricek two-step down pat. Need to lose it.
With 10:30 left in the third, here's Boler's comment,

If there was a question about letting the knicks back in the game, not the case at least not in the third.
Toney Douglas looks like he's straight out of the 70s.
Great camera work as we got to stare at Layden's (Scott's not Frank's) butt during a timeout for a good 5 seconds.
Forgot this, Ronnie B's block with :29 left on Hughes was the game-saver. It came after another failed attempt from Memo to slow down Ronnie's man on a screen. Ronnie fought over the screen and blocked Hughes' shot with the left hand.
Not a good sign when Deron Williams looks like Larry Bird did late in his career. Bird spent bench time laying on his back on the floor. Deron did the same and was stretching out his back the entire game.
Ronnie P left the game after he popped his big toe.

Daily Links 11/10

FLCeltsFan — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 19:07:38 -0000

Herald NBA great Kareem Abdul-Jabbar has rare form of leukemia
Green light on free throw issues
Jazz play winning note on Knicks
Review: Police did not cause Celtic fan’s death
Globe Celtics are poised for big score in digital game
Rondo: A rested development
Celtics step up for Pagliuca campaign
SI's Thomsen: Bird says NBA refs best of any sport

CelticsBlog    Quick Peek Ahead
Loy's Place   Happy Birthday to Perk!!!
ESPN    Aging Gracefully in the NBA
Celtics putting focus on free-throw shooting
Walker making great strides
Celtics get back at it
Blocks, steals becoming even scarcer
Looking Pretty Good Now
NBA.com   Philadelphia roots stir Wallace's passion for boxing
Bulls could be enticing option for LeBron James
Slam Online    Euroleague Weekly Preview
Stephen Jackson vs Don Nelson: Round 37
NBA Players That Should Be in Europe
Dick Bavetta Considering Retirement
Examiner    Celtics Sleep Their Way To The Top
Celtics showing weaknesses despite 7-1 start
Loscy    The Ghost of Glen Davis Past
Eagle Tribune    Shooting coach: Rondo's shot a work in progress
Red's Army    Your Morning Dump... Where Sheeds talkin' 'bout Iverson
Matt Bonner did what now?
Comcast SportsNet    Blakely and McAdam on Sports Tonight
Celtics by the Numbers
Celtics Hub    Like Christmas Morning for a Hoops Geek
Sheed Continues to Be a Great Quote
Do the Celtics Have a Foul Line Problem?
A Tiny Window into the 2009-10 NBA
Pushing the Boundaries of the Four Factors
North Station Sports    Celtics Fans: Welcome to the Jungle!
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar has Cancer
What do we need from Sheed?
Blue Ridge Now    Jazz-Celtics Preview
CBS Sports    Jazz-Celtics Preview
Lex Nihil Novi    Celtics Edge Pacers on Parish Buzzer-Beater (83-84)
KG Making Most of Limited Minutes (1995)
Walton Iffy for San Diego Game (83-84)
CelticsLife    Who Do You Hate More?
Down with the haters
Today's Video: Rondo Dream Sky High Mix
Fan Huddle   West’s Return Has Sparked Consecutive Cavaliers Wins
M Live    Rasheed Wallace adjusting to new role better than Allen Iverson
Washington Times    Different paths to success on Tobacco Road
Dimemag    NBA Hit List power ranking, 11.9
Knicks Blog   Just When You thought it Couldn’t Get Worse- Here Comes Utah
Bust a Bucket   NBA Player Rankings: Power Forwards
Inside Hoops    NBA RUMORS: TUESDAY, NOV. 10
Patriot Ledger     CELTICS NOTEBOOK: Six of the next eight games are at the TD Garden
WEEI     Easy on the 72-win talk for C’s|
Celtics Weekend Nuggets!
Record Pub    Reasons why LeBron James is not leaving the Cavaliers
Baltimore Sun    Disgraced ref's credibility just goes lower and lower
NESN     Top 10 Celebrity-Athlete Look-Alikes
Celtics Winning Despite Obstacles in Early Going
Rasheed Wallace Adjusting to New Role With Celtics
Hoop Doctors    Which NBA Teams Have Got Next?
NJ.com   Brook Lopez's maturation was on display in NJ Nets' hard-fought loss to Boston Celtics
Sports of Boston    Rondo-Paul Incident Sets Stage for Budding Rivalry
Mass Live   Celtics big man Rasheed Wallace can sympathize with Allen Iverson's Memphis Grizzlies discontent
Now to Watch Sports    On a Wing and a Prayer: A Frank Look at the Small Forward Position
Bleacher Report   Big Problems With Big Baby: A Celtics Fan's Reluctant Realization
Cleveland.com   LeBron says free agency 'is all about winning' -- does that open new 2010 options?
Dwight Jaynes    Playing perimeter defense in the NBA
Ballerblogger    Comparison: Rajon Rondo vs. Derrick Rose
Athlon Sports     NBA Power Rankings
Green Street    Celts get back to business
View from the Student Section   Rajon Rondo's Taking Shots At Chris Paul

Jazz 95, Knicks 93

Seth — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 06:23:36 -0000

More photos » by Frank Franklin II - AP

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I know that there's "no such thing as a moral victory" and whatnot, but I'm gonna go ahead and take the moral victory on this one. For the most part, this game was the usual fare: a truly horrid start followed by a spirited comeback that fell just short. We've seen that before. There were a couple elements of this one, though, that made it stand out. The primary one, as you might have heard, was the performance of a particular "precocious neophyte".

Yes, for perhaps the first time in his young career, Toney Douglas did what Toney Douglas do. It wasn't a revelation, really. Toney played 23 minutes of steady, determined basketball, and ultimately took the fall for a heartbreaking loss. The contrast, though, between TD and Chris Duhon was a sight to be seen. I know Chris means well, but he's been playing like he doesn't care. Most of us picked up on it, and I think Mike D'Antoni finally gave into the suspicion as well. He benched Du for the entire fourth quarter and handed the keys to Pretty Toney, who very nearly won the game by his damn self. Throughout the evening, but particularly in the fourth quarter, Douglas showed his full arsenal- three-point bombs, pull-up twos, and speedy drives to the rim. Though Toney threw away more turnovers (2) than assists (1), it was immediately evident that his ability and willingness to score prevented the D from sagging and made for many more passing opportunities. Should he continue to score so successfully, the pick-and-roll options and team-wide ball movement should thrive in turn. This isn't even close to Toney Douglas's team yet, but he made it very clear that he deserves a chance at taking the reins. His playing the full fourth quarter suggests that D'Antoni is fully willing to grant him that chance. As for that last shot, one more dribble and he could have splashed a nice running floater off the correct leg. Toney's a rookie, though. These things happen. If he keeps up this nerve, I'd be more than happy to watch Toney Douglas learn on the fly. DWTDD.

The rest of your game notes are after the jump...

- This was mentioned in the comments, and it's really a splendid thought. I see two ways to deal with the Knicks' tendency to fall behind early then storm back late. One would be to make them play two or three quarters of five-on-five before the game starts so they're in endgame mode by the time tip-off rolls around. Another would simply be to change the scoreboard to indicate that they're down 18 in the fourth quarter from the outset. You could totally pull that off, at least at home.

- I asked my team of trained genius badgers to run some numbers and found the following: The Knicks have lost every first quarter except for two (vs. Indiana and New Orleans). Through 8 games, the average first quarter margin is -9.4. Meanwhile, the Knicks have won every fourth quarter except for one (against Indiana), with an average margin of +7.6. That just goes to show that my first bullet point is no joke. The Knicks have really clicked in fourth quarters, but never enough to crack the eggs they collectively lay in first quarters. Part of this is that the opposition gets sloppy in the waning moments of a blowout, but part of it is significantly better New York basketball. Like I said, start each game with a fourth quarter and the Knicks would be a pretty solid team.

- Danilo Gallinari had a quiet night. His outside shots weren't really in rhythm, and he didn't get nearly as many touches as one would hope. It's tough for a youngster to demand the ball on offense, but I'd rather watch Gallo go iso for 20 seconds than see most anyone else try and create offense. Danilo also had two fantastic blocks (he's better at that than I expected) and was seen pounding his signature dish- scaloppini di Gallo- with Tina Cervasio in a pre-game feature. It's gnocchi with veal, if you're curious. I would love some right now.

- The presence of both Carlos Boozer and Ronnie Brewer nearly made Walt Frazier's head explode. By the end of the game, I'm pretty sure he resorted to calling both of them "Broozum".

- One thing that distinguished tonight's loss from every other loss was that the Knicks got back into it with zone defense. D'Antoni saw the opportunity to create turnovers and exploit Utah's lack of shooters by employing a 2-3 zone for very lengthy stretches. He was successful on one of two fronts. With Toney and Larry Hughes in the backcourt, New York was able to disrupt a lot of passes and even turn some steals into fast break buckets. At the same time, though, Utah accepted the challenge to shoot and did so with considerable success. Andrei Kirilenko hit 5 of 8 threes, many of which were so wide open that the nearest defender was someone in the crowd. Jerry Sloan also made his squad stack one side of the floor, which meant that one guard (often Douglas) found himself stranded at the top of the zone. The ensuing scramble repeatedly left Ronnie Brewer open for a mid-range J, or one of the big men open off a backdoor cut.

- That was the other big thing. Be it laziness or a child-like understanding of object constancy, the Knicks were completely baffled by backdoor cuts. I don't have much more to say on this. If somebody disappears for a second, that doesn't mean they're completely gone. I thought that was a given.

- This movie 2012 shouldn't be advertised on MSG. It almost makes me think Walsh should be clearing cap space for John Cusack, since it seems like he'll be the only dude around in a few years.

- Jared Jeffries has a new haircut. It looks fresh. Jared Jeffries's free throws look like the opposite of his haircut.

- Al Harrington really troubles me. He's trying very hard to be the difference and provide energy, but his shots just ain't falling of late. It's problematic, but I'm not as ready to bench him as some of y'all are.

- I guess Larry Hughes (and Toney, right?) deserves some credit for holding Deron Williams to 2-10 shooting for just 5 points and 7 turnovers. D-Wil did have 16 assists, though.

- Listen, I think the fact that the Knicks promote the Lustgarten Foundation is really, really excellent. Pancreatic cancer is a serious problem and it's a worthy cause for the organization to advocate. All that said, I can't help but single out Mike D'Antoni's performance in his ad spot for the foundation. Where Channing Frye's former rendition of "sometimes, dinner was just crackers" for the Garden of Dreams foundation was classically deadpan, D'Antoni's gratingly loud delivery of "WORKINGTOGETHERASATEAM (beat) THAT'SHOWWE'LLBEATPANCREATICCANCER." lacks nuance and prosody to the point that I have to laugh. The cause is truly noble, but the execution is downright hilarious. Am I a bad person for thinking that? Probably. Just to clear my conscience, why don't I link you over to the foundation one more time.

- In her regular halftime interview, Jill Martin asked Darryl Strawberry what trend from the 80's he'd most like to have back. Once more, I felt like a bad person for thinking the thoughts that I thought.

- It's funny how a 17-point deficit feels like nothing at halftime. That's practically a tie game in the context of this early season incompetence.

- I couldn't have told you without looking that Wilson Chandler (33 minutes, 17 points on 8-15 shooting, 10 rebounds, 2 assists) had a good game, but I guess he did. I'd prefer he not shoot 4 threes and 0 free throws, but hats off to Wil, I suppose. That's a nice line.

- According to the boxscore, Jordan Hill played in this game. I must have been blinking.

I don't have much else to say. The Knicks, as usual, hung tough when they hit open shots and play defense with even a hint of conviction. As usual, that occurred in the fourth quarter. As usual, it wasn't quite enough. Luckily for us, this game was distinct because of a compelling stretch of zone defense and an intriguing breakout performance from Toney Douglas.

Next game's on Wednesday against the Hawks.

The Debut of Laker Stats Orgy!

DexterFishmore — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 01:00:35 -0000

Last season during the playoffs, I ran a regular column here at SS&R titled Tempo-Free Boxscore Breakdown. In it I used a toolkit of unorthodox statistical measures to take apart the Lakers performance game by game. The idea was that by looking at game stats in a different light - in particular, by analyzing the numbers per individual team possession, rather than per game - we might learn things about how the Lakers play that you can't glean from the conventional newspaper box score.

TFBB is back this year, slightly reworked. It won't run for every game during the regular season, but we'll do one for each of the life-and-death contests (Boston, Cleveland, a couple other opponents) as well as weekly pieces looking at stat trends as they develop over the season. And don't worry: when we get to the playoffs, we'll resume our usual every-game dissection of the numbers. (I know you were worried!)

The other change is the name. Tempo-Free Boxscore Breakdown, let's be honest, is the most boring name given to anything ever. I should know, I came up with it. Sorry to have inflicted it on you last spring. To inject some much-needed heat and passion, I've renamed the column Laker Stats Orgy. It's shorter and punchier and I hope will trick search-engine users who type in the word "orgy."

I can tell you're excited, so let's throw some plastic over the furniture and get going. Bow chicka bow-wow.

For Issue #01 of LSO, I'm not going to look at any numbers from the season so far. We're only seven games in, which is an awfully small sample size. There's not much point in trying to extract meaning. Instead, I'm going to begin at the beginning, introducing the basic terminology. What follow are the definitions of the measures that we use, a brief explanation of why we use them and, for context, how the Lakers performed in each one last season.

There's nothing here that we invented ourselves, and it's not nearly as math-intensive as it might look. I suck at math and still do this stuff, so clearly anyone can.

Possessions: The possession is the basic unit of currency here. A possession begins when a team gets control of the ball and ends when the other team takes over control. A possession can end with a made shot or free throw, a turnover or the end of a period. If a team misses a shot, gets the rebound, misses again, gets the rebound again and finally makes a field goal, that's still all one possession.

Given how basketball works - teams alternate possession, back and forth, until time runs out - a team and its opponent will always have an equal or nearly equal number of possessions in a game. Barring overtime, one team can never finish a game with more than two possessions more than its opponent, and that only occurs if one team has the final possession in all four quarters.

The idea behind counting possessions is to separate performance from pace. Some teams (for instance, the Knicks) play much faster than others (for instance, the Cavaliers). Their up-and-down style inflates the number of points they both score and allow in each game. Looking only at per-game stats thus distorts a team's underlying efficiency on both offense and defense.

Pace: This means the average number of possessions a team and its opponents get per 48 minutes of play. Last season the league-average pace was between 90 and 91. The 2008-09 Lakers had a pace of 93.0, which was the sixth highest in the NBA.

Looking at a typical box score, you can estimate the number of possessions in a game with the following formula:

0.96 x (FGA + (0.44 x FTA)) - Offensive Rebounds + Turnovers)

This will usually get you within one or two possessions of the exact number. Because we at SS&R are committed to the highest standards of customer service, however, for Laker games I tally up possessions one by one the hard way. Yes, I am a hero. It's true.

Points Per Possession (PPP): Just what it sounds like, the number of points (scored or allowed) divided by the number of possessions used. An average possession in the NBA last year resulted in 1.10 points scored. The 2008-09 Lakers scored 1.145 points per possession (third best in the NBA) and allowed 1.061 points per possession (fifth best in the NBA).

Offensive Rating: Points scored per 100 possessions. Just take your offensive PPP and multiply it by 100.

I prefer PPP to Offensive Rating because the former is less jargony and more straightforward about what it describes, but I'm in the minority about this. Those who prefer Offensive Rating like that it gets us out of the realm of really small numbers and that 100 possessions is in the neighborhood of what you see in a typical NBA game. Because the hoops analyst community generally uses Offensive Rating instead of PPP, we use it occasion too, but in any event the two terms are describing the same thing.

Defensive Rating: Points allowed per 100 possessions.

Turnover Rate: The portion of a team's offensive possessions that end in a turnover. About 16% of possessions end in turnovers in the NBA. Last year the Lakers had an offensive turnover rate of 14.2%, good for fifth in the league, and their "defensive turnover rate" (or the turnover rate of their opponents) was 16.6%, good for sixth in the league.

FTA/FGA: The ratio of a team's free-throw attempts to its field-goal attempts. This measures a team's ability to draw fouls and get to the free-throw line and to prevent its opponent from doing the same. We use it instead of "free throw margin," which simply compares a team's raw free-throw attempts to those of its opponents, to remove the effects of pace and turnovers.

Pace is an issue that we've already covered: an up-and-down team will both accumulate and allow more free-throw attempts than it would otherwise. Turnovers have similar potential to distort. If one team has fewer free-throw attempts than its opponent, it could be simply because more of its possessions are ending in turnovers, before it can get a shot off. Thus we use FTA/FGA to zero in on what portion of a team's "looks at the basket" result in a trip to the charity stripe.

Last year the league-average FTA/FGA was 0.306. On offense the Lakers had a ratio of 0.230, ranking 20th in the NBA, and they allowed opponents a ratio of 0.213, sixth in the NBA.

FT%: This isn't an advanced metric. It's just free-throw percentage. I mention it here because at other sites you might sometimes see the ratio FTM/FGA (free throws made to field goals attempted) instead of FTA/FGA, discussed above. In my view, that conflates two separate skills: getting to the line and making free throws once you're there. Think of Shaq, a player great at drawing free throw attempts and terrible at converting them.

Last year the Lakers made 77.0% of their free throws, almost exactly league average. Laker opponents made only 75.3% of their free throws, second lowest rate in the NBA.

Effective Field-Goal Percentage (EFG): This is a mildly tweaked version of traditional field-goal percentage. It's calculated the same way but counts each three-pointer made as 1.5 field goals, to reflect its added value. In last night's game against the Hornets, for example, the Lakers shot 38 for 81 from the field, including 12 for 27 on three point attempts. Each of those 12 three pointers gets an extra 0.5 value, so to calculate the Lakers' EFG we just divide 44 (or 38 plus 6) by 81, to get 54%.

Last year the league-average EFG was almost exactly 50%. The Lakers' EFG was 51.3%, sixth highest in the NBA, and they allowed opponents to shoot an EFG of 49.0%, eighth lowest in the NBA.

True Shooting Percentage (TS%) is a bit more complicated, but only a bit. It's a measure of shooting efficiency that takes into account not only the added value of three-pointers but both free-throw attempts and makes. As Pro Basketball Prospectus puts it, "TS% can be thought of as what a player's field-goal percentage would be if they maintained the same level of efficiency while only shooting two-pointers." True Shooting blends three of the measures discussed above: Effective Field-Goal Percentage, FTA/FGA and free-throw shooting accuracy.

The formula for calculating TS% is points scored divided by two times "shooting possessions," which equal (FGA + (0.44 x FTA)). If you're wondering about the 0.44, and in particular why it's not 0.50, it's because not all trips to the free-throw line burn a possession. Some free throws come from "and 1s" and others from technical fouls. The 0.44 coefficient has been arrived at through trial and error as a sound way of estimating the number of possessions actually used by free-throw attempts.

The league last year had an average True Shooting Percentage of 54.4%. The Lakers' TS% was 55.7%, seventh best in the league, and they allowed opponents a TS% of 53.0%, sixth best in the league.

Offensive Rebounding Rate: The portion of a team's offensive rebounding opportunities (consisting of its missed FGAs and certain of its missed FTAs) that are actually collected as offensive rebounds.

Defensive Rebounding Rate has a corollary definition. It means the portion of a team's defensive rebounding opportunities that are actually collected as defensive rebounds.

Defensive rebounding is easier than offensive rebounding. On average, only about 27% of missed shots lead to offensive rebounds, so the standard rebounding stat, "rebounding margin," is distorted by shooting accuracy. Imagine, for example, a game in which the Lakers are ice cold from the field while their opponents are filling it up. The opponent is likely to collect rebounds in greater raw numbers simply because they have many more defensive rebounds to collect. It doesn't necessarily mean that the Lakers are doing a bad job of rebounding.

Accordingly, we break rebounding performance into offensive and defensive rates instead. Last year the Lakers had an offensive rebounding rate of 29%, good for third in the NBA, and a defensive rebounding rate of 73%, which ranked 19th.

And with that, the orgy is underway! If you're still reading, you should be either extremely proud of yourself or moderately ashamed, I can't decide which. I promise, in any case, that future editions of the LSO won't be quite this wonky. Just thought it would be useful to get this all in one place for everyone's present and future reference. Thanks for your patience, and for just being you.

Preview - Utah Jazz @ NY Knicks

Basketball John — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 21:45:34 -0000

More photos » by Julie Jacobson - AP

The number of wins the Knicks hope to have after tonight.

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How sad are the state of affairs of the Jazz when I will be doing back flips if we win this game tonight? This is a New York team that should be finishing at the bottom of not only the eastern conference, but the league.

We shouldn't have any problem scoring as they give up some of the most points in the league right now. They're ranked 24th in the league in defensive efficiency.

The bad news? Guess who ranks 25th? You don't even need three guesses.

As I mentioned in the Downbeat, this is one of only a couple of games where the team controls their own fate of that first-round pick next season.

That's not going to be what they're playing for primarily, but that pick could be a fra nchise changer. It seems to be that you have to have a couple of those types of guys on your team to compete for a title in today's NBA.

So how do the Jazz win tonight? First, put on some blinders so that they can't see the sidelines and look up into the crowd. Second, please don't let Lee have a big game. And really, it isn't even Lee I'm worried about. I'm more worried about someone like Gallinari or Chandler going off for 40. Or heaven forbid Larry Hughes.

I don't care if we get out of their with a 139-138, just so long as it's in the W column. Get the W and get the heck out of Dodge.

Game Thread coming at 5

Jazz vs Knicks coverage

Posting and Toasting

LeBron and the Clippers - A Theory

John Bena (aka CavsBlogger) — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 18:27:08 -0000

While New Yorkers, and any media infatuated with New York, would lead you to believe that the Knicks are by far the biggest competitor to the Cavaliers when it comes to LeBron James and his home next fall, I have been of the mindset that there will be other teams that are in the running, perhaps of greater interest to LeBron than even New York.

One such place is Los Angeles with the Clippers. If LeBron is looking for a metropolis to help his start shine brighter, LA is much more attractive than New York, at least in terms of talent on the roster. Of course, I am not alone, as NBA Insider David Aldridge also talks about this option for LeBron -

Actually, if LeBron wants to play in L.A., joining the Clippers, with Baron Davis, Blake Griffin, Chris Kaman, etc., and with cap room next summer to make a major league offer, would make a lot more sense. After all, the Clippers, supposedly, came within a few hours of convincing Bryant to come aboard in 2004.

What Aldridge also does a nice job mentioning is the fact that the Cavaliers will also have some money to spend - to improve a roster that is already primed to make a deep playoff run this year, early struggles be damned -

Of course, no one seems to understand that Cleveland will have access to its own stash of millions next summer, when Shaq's $21 million comes off the books, and could sign its own max player to team with James, Mo Williams and company for the next five years. Who doubts LeBron's own very strong means of persuasion?

Then, there are the comments of Mo Williams. LeBron is very close with his teammates, and it is the loyalty towards them that will be the biggest pull on LeBron to stay. Williams agrees -

"I'm not really too concerned about it, because I know his heart and his love is here in Cleveland," Williams told me last week. "I know that. Just like anybody else, we love the New Yorks, we love the Miamis, we love the L.A.s, we love the Torontos. That's probably the most underrated city. We love those cities. But you can't underrate home."

I have always conceded that it is Akron, not Cleveland, that LeBron considers home, and while the national media may not get it , there is a difference. That said, LeBron is loyal to a fault, and fault are what drive people to love celebrities.

It is going to be a delicate balance, going through the season while dealing with all the LeBron talk - the price of have a superstar.

Daily Links 11/9

FLCeltsFan — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 17:38:16 -0000

Herald Celtics team unimpressed by 7-1 start
Ben Wallace powers Pistons over 76ers
Globe Thunder too tough for Magic
Some deep thoughts on shot
SouthCoast Today Free Throws: Celtics tired, but at the top eight games in

CelticsBlog    Bill Walker Will Return Soon
Shelden Williams: Solid Paint Work
Telegram   Phoenix proving to be better off without Shaq
Celtics 17   Celtics-Nets: Where The Ugly Meets the Beast Happens
Red's Army    The Bigger Fool: Allen Iverson or Grizzlies Owner?
Your Morning Dump... where the Celtics are unimpressed with themselves
Celtics Hub Leftover Thoughts from Dirty Jersey
A Note on Iverson and a Sunday Notebook
Point: A Solid Season for Shelden
CT News     Pacific Divison Previews 2009-10
Lex Nihil Novi   C's Down Bullets, Post 4th Straight Win (1983)
Cornbread Helps C's to 4-1 Start (1983)
The Berlin Wall 20 Years On
CelticsLife    CDR H1N1
NBA News: Bench? We Talking About The Bench?
Gino's Jungle   Rondo Has Too Many Homeruns
Celtics Stuff Live   Celtics Stuff Live 11/8
Last Call Green Eighteen
Green Street    Celtics to play with the animals
Blaze of Love   Celtics Dancers - Making Kilts Even Naughtier
HoopsAddict   Exclusive Interview with Jermaine O’Neal
Double Dribble    Draft Do-overs
Inside Hoops    NBA RUMORS: MONDAY, NOV. 9
Nets Daily    Rivers, Jordan Think Frank Deserves a Break
Nets Give Celtics a Scare, but Fall Short Once Again
Dimemag    Superman meets Lex Luger
NY Post   LeBron will have better options than Knicks
Wages of Wins Journal    More on the Best Starting Line-Ups
Fan Huddle    A Boston Celtic Story: The Measure of the Green
Eight Games in 12 Days, A Coach, and his Team’s Quest for Growth
Wicked Local    Courtside View: Celtics have time to get acquainted
Paul Pierce.net Truth, Celtics Off to Great Start
Cleveland.com   The secret to coaching NBA superstars? They've got to put winning (and team) first
Examiner    Nets' effort not in question after loss [Audio included]
PBN   Ten years later, top of 1999 draft looks very strong
ESPN   Answers few and far between on Allen Iverson's future in Memphis
NESN    'Mean' Kendrick Perkins Fires Up Suns' Amare Stoudemire

How accountable is Mike D'Antoni?

Seth — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 01:44:52 -0000

More photos » by Morry Gash - AP

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I could recap last night's game, but it'd just be a mixture of the usual nonsense and disgust at Dan Gadzuric's beard. Instead, I'd like to turn our attention to the coach. I rarely question coaching and management in this space because so much of that takes place behind the scenes and out of earshot. One thing strikes me, though, and I think it's something you guys have picked up on as well. D'Antoni gets very hot; he nearly throttled a referee last night after a foul on David Lee went unnoticed. We haven't really seen him let loose on his players, though. It's hard to say what goes on in the locker room, but from what we see on TV, D'Antoni has yet to hold his guys accountable in the form of scolding. With a team that's 1-6 and can't find any semblance of chemistry, that probably shouldn't be the case. I understand that D'Antoni is a "player's coach" and cares deeply about his squad, but something has to give. It doesn't have to be the coach himself yelling and screaming. It could be a quicker trigger on calling timeouts, or it could be more willingness to bench guys who are a step slow (which, to be fair, made an appearance last night). D'Antoni could even preserve his camaraderie with the players by having an assistant play the role of bad cop, like Doc in Remember the Titans. Can't you picture Herb Williams yelling "you're lookin' like a bunch of BUMS out there!" after a huge opposing run?

Anyway, to put poorly what Tommy expressed quite well, I'm of the opinion that D'Antoni's at fault not for his system, but for his motivational techniques. Just like Tommy, I saw Coach passionately preach defense throughout training camp. I don't doubt that his intentions are pure. It just seems like his message lacks a punch, and that's where a little anger might help matters. But that's just me. How accountable do y'all think D'Antoni is for this woeful start? Is it a matter of strategy, motivation, or something else entirely? Discuss the 'stache in the comments.

Lakers-Hornets Preview

DexterFishmore — Sun, 08 Nov 2009 20:00:35 -0000

Remember when the New Orleans Hornets were the next big thing? It wasn't that long ago, although to a Hornets fan it must seem like the Carter administration.

In the spring of 2008, the Hornets challenged the Los Angeles Lakers for best record in the Western Conference. They fell one game short of the conference's top seed, and then one game short of meeting the Lakers in the conference finals. With a seemingly young core of Chris Paul, Tyson Chandler, David West and Peja Stojakovic, the Hornets appeared on the verge of securing a more or less permanent seat on the NBA Security Council.

I say seemingly, though, because within that core group only Paul was really on the upswing of his career. And sure enough, last season involved some textbook-quality regression to the mean. Paul remained awesome, but West's play slipped a touch and Chandler and Peja missed substantial time with injuries. The Hornets tumbled to seventh in the conference and got roundhouse-kicked out of the first round by the Denver Nuggets.

On Sunday night they arrive at Staples with a 2-4 record and looking not terribly formidable. There's no more telling indicator of their decline than this: the Hornets are the only team in the NBA to have lost to the New York Knicks. And when someone's losing to the Knicks, I assume they're either butt-awful or point-shaving. The two aren't mutually exclusive, I suppose.

On the other hand, one of New Orleans' wins came against the Dallas team that blasted the Lakers, so they have that going for them. Let's go to the numbers, with the usual caveat about small, early-season sample sizes:

	Hornets	Lakers
Net Points Per Game	-6.3 (25th)	+3.5 (11th)
Pace	93.5 (22nd)	95.4 (15th)
Offensive Rating	105.2 (12th)	104.6 (14th)
Defensive Rating	109.9 (28th)	99.6 (9th)

(For those unfamiliar with the above terms, Pace means average number of possessions per 48 minutes. Offensive Rating is the number of points scored per 100 possessions. Defensive Rating is the number of points allowed per 100 possessions. League rankings are in parentheses.)

Like the Grizzlies team the Lakers just faced, the Hornets have been decent on offense and an utter catastrophe on defense. Their strength has been their shooting, or rather Chris Paul's shooting. He's been unreal in the first six games, making 62% of his two-point attempts, 72% of his three-point attempts and 87% of his free throws. Solve Paul, and you've solved the Hornets.

It would help if anyone had any clue how to do that. Paul is a point guard of surgical brilliance. With the ball in his hands, which is almost always, he goes wherever he wants to go, and he's a master when it comes to passing out of the pick-and-roll and drive-and-dish. Laker fans who watched the Houston game last week will recall how Aaron Brooks repeatedly sliced into the lane and found the Rocket big men for easy hoops. Well, Paul makes Aaron Brooks look like Smush Parker, and he makes Smush look like you and me.

Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol, who have the size to make Paul's forays into the paint less inviting, won't play tonight. DJ Mbenga has similar size and even better shot-blocking facility, but he'll need to play with discipline and stay out of foul trouble. The Lakers will also need some plan to slow Paul on the perimeter, before he gets a head of steam en route to the basket.

I'd argue that Derek Fisher hasn't been that bad on D this year. He got torched by Brooks, but I thought he did a respectable job guarding Russell Westbrook in Oklahoma City. That said, asking Fish to guard Paul has the potential to be a complete, NC 17-rated horror show. It thus wouldn't surprise me to see Kobe Bryant draw the assignment at times. New Orleans has the worst set of shooting guards in the league - according to our sister blog At The Hive, someone named Devin Brown will start at the 2 tonight - so Phil could easily dial up that defensive switch.

(Devin Brown, by the way, could be the worst player to start an NBA game this year. I do not exaggerate.)

The central problem for the Hornets is the gaping void of roster talent after Paul. David West and Emeka Okafor (the latter obtained in a trade that sent Chandler to Charlotte) are above average for their positions, but they're not quite All Star-caliber, and everyone else is either a has-been or never-gonna-be. Peja isn't anything like the threat he was during the LA-Sacramento holy wars. He can still hit threes but does nothing else on the court except be old.

Will the Lakers need another 40-point Kobe explosion to win this one? If the bench plays as well as it did against Memphis or nearly so, and if Ron Artest continues his stellar work on both ends of the floor, the answer is no. Even down Bynum and Gasol, the Lakers have enough talent and system to get to 6-1.

But if the reserves fumble around incompetently as they've been known to do from time to time, or if Paul runs wild for 40 minutes, things could definitely turn sour.

In conclusion, how cool is it that New Orleans has an actual place called the Voodoo Spiritual Temple? If I ever get married that's where it's going to be.

Knicks-Bucks Postgame Meltdown

Seth — Sun, 08 Nov 2009 05:09:49 -0000

This is your quick post-game discussion post. The Knicks were decimated by the Bucks this evening in a manner so completely repulsive that P&T's own "Frederic Weis" felt the need to incorporate a noose into the traditional Francis the Vomiting Man graphic. It was that bad, and worse.

A slightly more detailed recap will follow tomorrow.